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STOCK PICKS FOR THE WEEK!
Recorded: April 21, 2025 Duration: 1:04:30Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, panelists analyzed market trends, highlighting their ability to outperform the market despite declines. Key insights included concerns over the 200-week moving average, potential growth opportunities in micro-cap stocks, and the impact of bond market trends on equities. The conversation emphasized a cautious yet strategic approach to navigating the current market landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Happy Monday, April the 21st.
A red day in the market, but spoiler alert, we as a crew here beat the market over the last week.
So tune into this for sure.
Each and every Monday, stock picks for the week.
We have a great panel that comes up here each and every week.
We do market sentiment in the first half of the show.
Of course, if anybody does have to run out early today, we let them go ahead and get those picks in.
And then, yeah, we go around.
Everyone picks two stocks.
If you have no conviction at all, we have been allowing one singular pick over the last few weeks.
And we'll continue to do that, I guess, if anyone wants.
But, yeah, it was an interesting week since we've last spoken.
We are much lower in the market.
We've moved down 4% to 5% across the board on Spying QQQ,
yet we, as a crew, were down less than 2% across the board
from the panel's picks this past week.
And yeah, that's where we're at. I'm going to go ahead
and start passing around here and getting some market sentiment thoughts. Ben, you always kick
us off with some strong energy. So I'm going to go over to you first, my friend. It's great to hear
from you again. Got to speak with you a little bit earlier today, but I would love to get you to go
ahead and share with audience share with the
audience your market sentiment thoughts okay great well i missed you guys last week you did a great
job congratulations on that really outperformed the market over there um my thoughts is going to
be exactly what i shared just a few hours ago in the small cap space if you guys watch that um you
know i really worry about the 200-week moving average.
I've got to say, at this point, that's my target.
The 200-week moving average on SPY QQQ, which is like another 10% lower.
I don't know exactly how we get there or the timing of when we get there.
We've got Tesla earnings after the close tomorrow, followed by the big cap tech starting the day after that.
And to be honest with you, I'm not sure how the market's positioned. If the next leg down towards the 200-week moving average happens this week as a result
of the earnings reports, or if, I don't know, somehow is that a little priced in, or maybe
we're positioned that we get a little bit of a confusing rally
on bad news because we're oversold and then we dive down later.
I'm not sure exactly how that's going to play out.
But I've been positioned very high cash levels.
At the end of each day, I'm between 70% and 85% cash right now in my trading account.
At the end of each day, I'm like between 70% and 85% cash right now in my trading account.
I've also actually started over the last couple of weeks, even paring down my long-term account,
selling some lower conviction names, adding some gold.
So I got to say, I'm pretty pessimistic about this further kind of technical move to the 200-week moving average.
But I still remain bullish in the intermediate term for now, because to me, that 200-week moving average is your longer-term bull market support line.
We bounced right off of it in 2022 bear market.
If you pull out, you know, we kind of bounced off of COVID.
We kind of bounced off of COVID.
We went through it for like a week and a half or something.
We went through it for like a week and a half or something.
But that 200-week moving average has been a long-term bull line all the way since really essentially coming out of the great – what's it called?
The great recession?
No, you know, the great – GFC, great financial crisis, right?
So we came out of the great financial crisis in like 2010 into that bull market.
And this has been our bull market trend line since then.
That's what I was at, like a 15-year bull market.
So I'm not going to bet against the 200-week moving average breaking.
To me, I'm looking at this as just a market correction.
And if we go all the way to like 460 on this buy, to me, that's just a market correction.
And I may look to get long there, but be warned.
If, you know, people are talking about a lot of people feel, especially those who don't like Trump, feel like he's destroying the economy or whatever it is that they think is going to fail.
If that's really your belief, then that 460 is just the beginning because that's a correction in a bull market.
Now you talk bear market.
You got to go well below 460 if you believe that thesis.
So anyway, that's my macro look, and it's like 70% to 85% cash.
Now, Emp, if you don't mind, I do want to get out of here early.
My wife needs me with the family if I can give my two picks now.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Go ahead.
What you got for us?
Okay.
It's actually going to be, I think, two picks that we talked about in the small cap.
So these are small caps.
I got to tell you, I don't feel comfortable with large caps right now because they're just going to move with the market.
And the market is going to be with the market and the market's going
to be pretty unpredictable this week, I think.
I have a bias towards the downside in the market right now, but you never really know
how things transpire.
So to find a little bit of alpha, to find a little bit of, you know, some stocks that
might not go down or up with the market and kind of do its own thing.
So the first one is going to be M Mind, M-I-N-D.
It's a small cap.
It's a $42 million micro cap we just talked about a few hours ago
that actually someone else brought up.
And this is a stock that I played really well.
If you look at the last earnings report, I saw that earnings beat.
We're all over this at the open on, let's see,
December 11th. This thing opened at like $5 and it went all the way to 11. I was in it to like
at least $10 or something. So it was like a double over a few weeks and it's back all the way back
to $5 now. So, you know, awesome that someone, a fellow panelist reminded me of this. Earnings
are actually tomorrow after the close.
So I got into this.
It's actually now all of a sudden from like zero to 100.
I took this.
It became my largest position today, the 7.5% position.
I'm going to be most likely holding at least 60% to 70% of that position into the ER report tomorrow afternoon.
Very undervalued.
I think no debt in this one.
Not your typical micro cap.
And so that's the first pick, M-I-N-D.
For the second pick, again, it's a stock we talked about.
This is not quite a micro cap.
It's $11 billion.
But can I go to warrants?
Can I do those WeBull warrants?
Bull W?
Are we allowed to do that?
I have no issue with it personally.
If somebody else objects, please object now or forever hold your peace.
So WeBull, D-SPAC recently there.
Ticker symbol B-U-L-L.
You guys will sell what it did up there.
Exploded from $10 to $80 in like a day and a half?
That was crazy. Pulled back all the way here to $23. I think
fundamentally the price is more than justified here.
Worst case scenario, maybe it pulls back to $17.
Now, I don't know, will this perform in this next coming week? I'm not sure
exactly, but the outperformance will be hopefully over the next few weeks.
Because Bull W are $11.50 warrants.
So right now, it should be worth like $13, trading at $1.88.
$1.88 should be $13.
Why that difference?
Because these warrants are not exercisable yet.
But they will be in another 20 days.
So that's pretty near term.
And, you know, that arb, I guess, I guess you would call it some people would be arbiting this and, like, shorting bull and longing bull warrants.
That will be coming more and more into play pretty acutely over the next two to three weeks as we get closer to that when
these bull warrants will be exercisable at $11.50. So Webull, I think this thing can stay above 17.
You've got to get a big gap here between 11 and 26. It dropped below 26 today, but 17, big support.
So even if it holds 17 over the next few weeks, those warrants will be worth $5.50 and they're
$1.88 now.
So Bull W along with Mind actually are my two largest positions.
Well, no, I take it back.
My largest position is cash.
I'm like 80% cash right now, then Mind my number one position, and then Bull W after
that.
That's how my trading account looks like right now.
So that's it.
All right, mind and bull W.
We've got a warrant pick for the first time since I've been around this show,
but hey, I don't have a problem with it at all.
And Ben, you've set up your actual position, so I can't mark it.
I might pick bull W for the next two or three weeks. So that's coming up.
And you can see some rapid price appreciation.
As long as Webull stays above like $15 to $17, you're going to see these bull warrants rapidly appreciate in price over the next few weeks.
Beautiful. I'll ask you one thing. If there's any way you can double check the data in the sheet where we track this,
just to see that one spot that I'm sure you can see on there.
If there's any way you can correct that, if not, no problem.
What's missing for you?
I just see the SPY.
You just want to SPY?
The one I'm missing is RCL and RKT.
Oh, they're showing for me, so I'll just tell you what it is now.
2.31% positive on RCL, and RKT is minus 9.77%. Okay, do you have our winner's total?
Because that's who I'm going to call on next.
You won.
No, you didn't.
Wait a second.
No, no.
Nick Drendel won.
This is Nick Drendel.
Nick Drendel's our winner.
Nick Drendel won at 3.25%.
You came in second at 2.6%.
Beautiful, beautiful.
All right.
Well, Ben, I appreciate you.
I know you've got to run.
Appreciate you.
Glad we got your picks in there.
Mind and Bull W.
I did pin last week's picks up to the top, and then at the end of this space,
I will pin this week's picks as I the top. And then at the end of this space, I will pin this week's
picks as I get those put into a tweet. But let's go over to our champion from last week,
our gold medal winner, Nick Drendel. We'd love to get your thoughts here. You were short Yeti
and RCL last week. Beautiful job. Our top picker. Not only did you outperform the market, you had a green return while the market
was down 5% to 6%. So wonderful job, Nick. And what market sentiment thoughts do you have for us?
Yeah, thanks for having me on again. I think in bull markets, you see rotation from group to group
as asset prices go higher. And in bear markets, which we're in right now,
you see the rotation go for liquidity.
So anything that's holding up with good relative strength,
that tends to be the next group that's hit.
And we've seen that for the past two-ish months,
where we keep a list of stocks showing good relative strength.
At first, it was energy.
Then it was Chinese stocks,
then we had some software or we started off with software names and each time those dominoes fell
one by one as we just saw liquidity getting sucked out of the market. And that's kind of
just overall sentiment is we're below all the key moving averages. We don't really have any leadership groups left that are very, very strong,
especially not in the growth type names.
And one thing that I always track is unfilled gaps to the upside and the downside.
And typically when you bottom in a market and an individual stock,
you'll see the spike in volume, which we did get on the 7th of April and then obviously we had that tariffs are
delayed pump but we never got any unfilled gaps to the upside and since
that that pump that we got on the 9th we we had 1, 2, 3. We're now at three unfilled gaps to the downside,
meaning people took that a nice 1, 2, 3, yeah,
three-day rally and just took that to de-risk.
And that's not a great sign.
We had some stocks holding up really well.
Palantir is still kind of the stock that I'm
most focused on above key moving averages, not anywhere near its previous lows. So as we get
deeper into this bear market, I guess, I don't love to put like the words bear or bull market on.
love to put like the the words bear or bull market on. I tend to use the 20-day moving average as
just like a risk on risk off kind of appetite and right now we're below the 20-day so for me it's
just a risk off market but I'm trying to keep a list of the stocks that are showing relative
strength so that once we see that relative strength actually turn into confirmation to the
upside versus that's the
next group that's getting hit to the downside for liquidity, then I'll have a little bit more
information on what stocks to get aggressive on. We're actually seeing capital come back into the
market. Hopefully that comes in a specific group because then it's a little bit easier to make
those picks. But until we see relative strength confirmed to the upside versus break to the downside,
I think there's just a risk off market that you do either a lot of day trading, great
market for day trading, lots of volatility.
But if you're trying to swing trade or position trade, we're not there yet.
It's a risk off market.
So you just stay in cash, go on vacation,
enjoy your time elsewhere. So for me, I'm doing a little bit of shorter term trading,
but really just trying to withstand this market correction, bear market, whatever you want
to call it, and then have as close to a full capital and a better mindset when we do get to a risk on market.
Yeah, great thoughts, Nick. Appreciate you sharing those. And great job last week on the Yeti and RCL
shorts. I feel like short anything probably would have done well, but you were the only person,
and I think the only person we've had,
at least since I've been behind the account that has gone double short on
anything and you won. So well done, Nick Drendel.
And thanks for those market sentiment thoughts.
Let's keep going around the horn here.
Andrew,
let's go over to you next and see what you're thinking over there with market
sentiment.
Yeah. What's going on guys? How's everybody doing tonight? Yeah, in terms of market sentiment,
let me go ahead and share my dashboard here. Yes, that way we can get a look at today's price
action. So what's really interesting is it just looks like rather than like some monster, you know, worldwide market sell off.
This is really a rotation that's happening out of U.S. equities.
So if you look at the table that I posted in the nest, we can see that Bitcoin actually had a positive performance today.
Gold actually had a positive performance in emerging markets, you know, pretty much flat, negative 0.02% for the session. So this really is just, yeah, people moving out of U.S. assets. And yeah, this is related to roll out these tariffs, this crazy big super batch.
They said they weren't going to relent, and those boosted tariffs were going to go onto the market.
And then within, let's say, the first 12 hours of that happening, the administration essentially buckled, and we had to push back those tariffs 90 days.
And we had to push back those tariffs 90 days. Now it's interesting. Bond yields are essentially moving back to where they were right before Trump capitulated. And the same thing with equities. We're starting to work our way lower on the equities as well. monitoring right now is with these other countries, they know exactly at which point
Trump capitulated. And they can also see that back in his first administration,
he capitulated when negotiating with the Chinese for that first US-China trade deal.
And so really the strategy for everyone around the world really could just be, hey, run out the clock on Trump. You know he always capitulates on these things. And we already saw where his put strike was on the bond market. So lo and behold, we're not really getting much in the way of news on, oh, we made how to deal with Trump and we're not getting
these trade deals as a result. So over the coming days, let's say tomorrow bond yields start moving
out to the upside again. I think it really is important to see, does Trump, you know, add more
tariff relief? You know, does he relent in some other way or does he just stick to his guns
and then perhaps bond yields actually move out to a higher level? I think that's the key question.
And I think that's what market participants everywhere are dealing with.
You know, in terms of the bond market, if these tariffs go into effect,
there has to be some higher level of inflation that gets priced in as a result.
But then at the same time,
people don't know, perhaps a miracle deal ends up coming to fruition. And then everything that
was priced in pretty much has to be priced out. So I think this is a really challenging period
just for institutional market participants as a whole. And that's what we're seeing within the
markets as retail traders, where everyone's kind of hanging on to every headline.
Tomorrow, if we get a headline like trade talks are going well or there's a deal, we can be looking at such a completely different picture.
So in this environment, as Nick alluded to, I think it's really important.
If you're a day trader, you can really, you know, there's a lot of opportunity out there for you. If you're a swing trader, there's a lot of opportunity out there for you.
If you're a swing trader, it's really tough.
And then I also think if you're a longer term oriented investor or position trader,
you can also navigate around this tape as well.
But if you're in that sweet spot of being a swing trader,
this is probably where you want to be in mostly cash
or really just not trading
all that aggressively. So that's where I'm standing on the market at the moment, just
following every headline like everyone else. In terms of my pick for tonight, I'm going to go
with the TLT just because we're getting close to that point where Trump capitulated about a week or so ago.
So yeah, that's going to be my pick for this space.
In terms of individual stocks, I'm not seeing a whole lot that is standing out.
So yeah, I'm going to go with TLT for this week.
Thanks so much.
Appreciate you joining, Andrew.
As always, Andrew, taking TLT.
We're going to double that up.
Like I said earlier, there's not a whole lot of conviction in the market right now.
And if somebody wants to double up a pick with the same symbol, we will allow that during this time period.
And Andrew's doing just that with TLT, long bonds, doubled up from real pristine capital.
Appreciate you, Andrew. funds uh doubled up from real pristine capital appreciate you andrew want to keep going around
the panel and get some more market sentiment thoughts let's go over to michael nows great
to have you back on the show how have you been sir and what thoughts do you have around this wild
market i've been i've been doing well the kids growing up, so more things after hours.
But I'll try to make it when I can.
And Andrew, TMF exists, just if you want to go crazy.
The three times TLT leveraged ETF, if you want to go a little nuts there.
Yeah, bump me up. Give me the TMF.
You want me to do TLT on one, TMF on the other?
Double TMF. Double TMF on the other? Double TMF.
Double TMF.
All right.
I like it.
I like it.
Maybe some peer pressure for Michael Nels, but I like it.
Andrew coming in, swing it.
Yeah, but no, Andrew summed it up, I think, pretty perfectly. I think the stock market's a bit of a red herring right now.
A lot of people don't know that the bond market is 10x, the stock market's a bit of a red herring right now right it's a lot of people don't know
that the bond market is 10x the stock market like the global bond market is one quadrillion dollars
or a thousand trillion so uh you know i know we like to trade stocks because they're volatile but
really it's the bond market that that tells the story and as bond as the TLT starts to get to the point where where
Trump flinched last time it only makes sense that he'll he'll flinch again again I I solely think
that this whole thing is over one day uh during the market or one night he says oh you know I
got I had a great chat with blah blah blah and you know everything's great now and and they did everything
i wanted even though whether or not that's true who knows or cares um and all the tariffs are gone
and then the thing everything just screams higher so uh again we've been through all this before
right if you this is the beauty of of kind of the way i trade by trading systems and what we do over
sets of trading is i can just go back and i can look at my systems and see how they performed in 2018 when we had a trade war with china and 2019 when trump
was saying he was going to fire jpao unless he lowered rates all all the same stuff right uh you
know nothing's new here and just what worked then and what's continuing to work for me now is mean reversion, right?
Buying dips and selling rips.
So I think that's the market.
You know, I've been saying all year that's the market we're going to be in.
There's some caveats with mean reversion that scares some people, but it's more of a shorter term type of trade, right?
You're putting bids under the market and you're hoping the market comes in and fills your bid and then bounces a little bit and then you move on.
So, you know, make sure that you're having those places where you want to get in and not marrying those positions and expecting them to go back to highs.
Like both of the picks that I'll give a little later are mean reversion picks in that nature.
And yeah, just just have a plan in in order to trade around the absolute insanity that's
going on. And buying dips, selling rips away to do it. Also mentioned day trading. That's another
great way to do it. But yeah, these are the markets that I think looking back, if you completely sit
out, you're going to really, really regret because one day we're all going to wake up, the market's
going to be up 20%. He's going to go, yeah i i got everything i wanted from all the negotiations and we move on as normal so
who knows when that's going to happen none of us know but that what that's what i think will happen
now when it comes technically right there's what they call the mother bar well sometimes when you're
stuck in it which is just a massive,
massive bullish engulfing or bearish engulfing candle that's quite often the market gets stuck
in for a long period of time. And I do think that's what's happening here. And I do think
that's what's going to continue to happen, that we are going to be stuck inside this bar for,
I don't know, maybe even the foreseeable future for weeks until we get resolution from tariffs one way or another.
So I would simply and what I've been doing, my game plan is you mark the low of that bar where Trump walked back to tariffs and then you mark the high of that bar.
And as long as we are inside that range, you just continue to play ranges that you see on stocks, right? Buying support, selling resistance, that type of thing.
A violation of that range,
either to the upside or the downside,
then changes your thinking again.
If we break the upside of that bar,
maybe some trend following kind of shopping list names
that you've come up with,
you look to get involved in.
If we break the low of that bar,
maybe you move to a little bit more cash.
But while we exist inside of that range, I think really short-term trades, trading ranges inside stocks makes perfect sense.
And just trying to stay alive until, again, we all wake up one day and the tweet comes
out and everything's fine and dandy after that.
But that's the main
important thing, right? The last thing you want to do is to take really catastrophic losses while
you wait for that to happen. And then all of a sudden, everybody else out there who's got a bunch
of cash on hand, when that happens is doing great. And you've you're digging out from a hole. So,
so trade small, but you, but find little ranges to trade
and keep yourself engaged until that happens.
Great advice, great words there from Michael Niles.
Great to have you back on the Stock Picking Show
and chat out to you for being a great dad,
taking care of the family.
Always one of the best investments you can make there.
Great. Let's keep it moving along.
Trader Nate, let's go over to you next, and then we'll hit Chris.
Yeah, sounds good. Great advice from everybody on the panel.
And, you know, great trades called out last week by a number of folks.
And, you know, I would say by looking at some basic, you know, sector analysis,
you can see that all these charts look the same except for
the defensive sectors. So they're looking at staples and utilities, which we don't really
trade here because they're generally not as exciting. But you look at these charts and see
that they're the charts that are acting a little bit differently, testing either trend lines to
potential breakout to the upside or getting
back to their recent highs where everything else is rolling over and basically just trying to get
above the big pop. And most everything is rolled over either below or got just above and then
rolled back over. The one sector that was interesting, because small caps have not
been doing well, not been performing well. And, you know, I mentioned defensive sectors like
Staples have been doing well, but XBI, so biotech, you wouldn't expect necessarily to be doing
all that fantastic here. And the chart actually, you know, is getting back above the highs that, you know, the big pop back on April 9th.
And it is testing, you know, pull back a little bit today after making a move higher.
I'm testing that high kind of as a support level.
And we'll see if it forms a support and XBI can get moving back up to fill the gap.
It's got above it up to 84.
So, I mean, it's not the most exciting trade
because again, we're in this down market and there's a lot of pressure to the downside. But
if we are going to see a pop here, I'm looking for names that have relative strength, they're
performing well on days like today. So there are stocks you can find, there are picks out there
that look interesting, that have bullish engulfing candles on days like today.
So big green, big green candles where everything else is pretty much selling off.
And, you know, those are where was Andrew who mentioned it, finding the, you know, identifying
ranges and trading those ranges is actually going to be a little bit more lucrative. I think for
right now, if you are swing trading and don't have the time to day trade, which is the category I
fall into most of the time. And yeah, so you find the opportunities. CrowdStrike was a great
opportunity last week. They performed well to the downside because it was right at the top of its channel.
It's easy to see that it started slowing down and reversing and given opportunity to get in.
And then after a couple of days of some selling and then today a big sell-off got down about 5%.
You'll see names like that giving opportunities, trading, and ranges.
So I like to take those names that are at the top of the range because of the way, again,
all these sectors, all these charts, they do look very similar, lower highs rolling
over, and there's just a lot of pressure to the downside.
So generally speaking, taking off trades pretty quickly, sizing relatively smaller. But another way to maybe temper some volatility
is whatever you're used to utilizing
as far as expiration dates for options trades, for example,
you might want to just push those out maybe a month, right?
Buy a little bit extra time if you have conviction
in a price level and support or resistance, you'll reduce
the drastic movements that will stop you out pretty quickly in this kind of market that has
high volatility. That said, it's hard to keep your position small and your dates extended, right?
That's threading the needle. So that's why they say it's pretty tough right now hearing everybody
with the same kind of sentiment. It's pretty to to be a swing trader and so my uh my continued guidance with respect to that
is just take those profits early and take the majority of your position off early if you're
going to leave runners you know put the stop in place and just be disciplined about it because
there's not a lot of margin for error right now, but there are those opportunities again.
I mean, if you're wanting to take upside trades,
they're there, but they quickly get gobbled up.
So again, just be nimble.
And overall, I think still you got to follow the trend. That's how I traded, follow the charts.
And the trend is still to the downside.
So we'll see how we'll
see how tomorrow goes and we've got some big names reporting here as we're in earnings season so
i am interested to see how we hear no guidance being given for from certain big names how the
market reacts to that whether it's expected or if it actually has a negative reaction
we'll see and uh with that, I ended back
and looking forward to hearing some picks this week.
Beautiful.
Yeah, that crouch strike short
that you called out last week, 5.4%.
Nice return on that.
I believe that was the third best, yes,
third best return we had of any of our picks last week.
And Chris Patel, haven't heard from you yet,
would love to get your thoughts on market sentiment here. Yeah, I think the market's
doing opposite of what traditionally we've seen, where when stocks retreat, bonds typically start
riding higher and yields start to fall. This time around, I think the confidence in the US dollar
itself is in question, primarily because of trade policy
being so erratic. The thing with me is that when I look at this, I'm like, well, as long as US
businesses aren't deteriorating at a rapid pace, then it's kind of a net net. So as an example,
when dollar weakens, typically businesses that have a lot of exposure to outside currencies,
you know, instead of it being a headwind on their EPS actually ends up being a tailwind. So
I think we're okay in that regard. So I'd say that, you know, the businesses themselves have
a little bit of leeway until it starts to impact their supply chains, in which case then they have
issues. So companies that have exposure to outside currencies are probably something that I'd look at right now as more than more than just just the traditional stocks.
So if the business has a lot of exposure to international business segments, but still like denominated in U.S. dollars, that could be good for them as an EPS boost.
And, but that's more of like a medium to long-term kind of like a situation. Yeah. So right now,
this, what we're seeing right now is a crisis of confidence in the US. And unfortunately,
the reason why is because the policy decisions by the president. Now the markets, both stock
and bond have united and basically said, this tariff thing is a bad idea. The question is, are our businesses and
are our people going to turn around and actually like voice that concern to Trump and will Trump
care? So right now I'm already starting to see farmers buckling, which traditionally makes up a good portion of the MAGA base.
And they're in positions where their production is basically being sidelined in favor of something like Brazilian.
So I saw this one documentary about U.S. alfalfa farmers and soybean farmers.
Like China used to make up a big market for them. And that's no longer the
case. Now the Chinese are sourcing from Brazil instead. And so, you know, that is a MAGA base
thing that Trump is going to have to worry about, especially because they're going to make their
voices heard through the Republican Party at the House and the senatorial level. And then the House
and the senatorial level is going to end up communicating that with Trump. And eventually they're going to at least talk about possibly
pulling the plug. And the days where the party can survive this tumultuous movement, I think,
is a lot more limited than people think. And I think literally we've got maybe 60 days left
before Congress pulls the plug on this whole thing.
The question is, where will the economy be by then?
And will the damage that's done be repairable going into the midterms?
And I think that's the question that's in probably every Republican strategist brain right now.
And the thing is, as that day 90 comes closer and closer and no trade deals are announced,
it's putting more and more pressure on them to basically pull the plug. Now, on the other hand,
all of the other countries outside of us, they know that. So they're basically waiting it out,
saying, well, we're not going to negotiate a trade deal for 60 to 90 days. I mean, the pain is mostly
being felt by US.S. consumers,
not really by us as much. So they're just kind of chilling. There's no rush to make any giant
overtures. And yeah, it's a pretty tragic situation. So for me right now, even though I'm
looking at all the pain right now, I think eventually the Fed is going to have to step in.
right now, I think eventually the Fed is going to have to step in. Inflation's already down.
One of the things that tariffs traditionally do is cause inflation, which is what the Fed
is aiming at, saying, look, if we get tariffs, then the price of goods is going to rise.
But what I'm also seeing is a consumer confidence issue, in which case you have demand destruction,
right? So capital purchases are likely to be down significantly.
And if that comes down,
then that means that inflation is gonna come down.
So kind of we're in this zone of,
will tariffs cause inflation?
Yes, but at the same time,
will the demand destruction
outweigh the cost of the tariff inflation?
And if that ends up being the case
where consumer demand
collapses and inflation starts to go down really fast, then of course you're going to see the Fed
coming from the sidelines and having to dump either liquidity into the system by stopping
the roll-off and possibly even buying long bonds or lowering rates at a pretty even pace for the next six months.
So I think we could, by the end of this year, probably get like a three handle on the Fed funds rate,
which probably is about four to five cuts, depending on how bad things get.
And if that's the case, then I'd be pretty long on TLT.
So I'm going to stick with, I think, I don't know who said TMF, but I'll do double TMF. I agree with
you. I think we're at the breaking point or we're close to the breaking point. And I think the pivot
is a lot closer than we think. So I'm going to go with that.
think. So I'm going to go with that.
I appreciate those thoughts, Chris.
Real Preston Capital did take
CMF already, but I can give you TLT.
Yeah, I'll take it. The funny thing is, if I take TLT,
then I'll underperform him, but I will take TLT. I'll take it.
Yeah, downside protection. I don't know.
I'll also take venture
global again because one thing that does help venture global's case is that natural gas prices
here in the u.s are going down while at the same time the europeans they're getting natural gas at
a cheaper price because of euro dollar differences in fx so a lot of people are saying oh look usd
to euro um not gas is going down. But at the
same time, if you look at the spread, it's actually widening. So I'll go with TLT and Venture Global.
TLT and VG Venture Global. Chris, I got to give you a shout out. I actually looked into,
you mentioned Venture Global on this exact space a few weeks ago. And I looked into it,
I actually bought some and I'm up 20% on that equity from when you first were mentioning
to the group here.
So big shout out to you.
And if you are in the audience, that's one thing that you should look at.
I mean, obviously, listen to the analysis up here.
And if there's some picks, put them on your radar.
Do some due diligence.
Don't just blindly follow, of course.
But that's kind of what
I did, and I found some really nice picks from this crew up here. So big shout out to the whole
crew up here, and Chris, appreciate you getting those picks in and your market sentiment thoughts.
Jordan, my co-host, you are last but not least, my friend. You had the top pick and the worst
pick last week, so take that how you want.
Let's go.
NFLU is the best returner at 8% and TQQQ did not do near as well.
We'll just leave it at that to keep it positive on this space.
But what thoughts do you have for us, Jordan, around this market?
Well, I've spent a lot of days trying to come in bullish on a higher timeframe. And I have ended
up flipping pretty much every single day since last week. So letting the market tell me intraday,
hey, like you're wrong, flip your bias. But I've been trying to come in and be a good bull. This
market just hasn't really wanted to do it. But we're still holding some interesting areas. I'm
not really convinced on any direction. I know if we want to,
if we do want to get ripping, you know, above, gosh, I'm looking at angus like above into that new week opening gap. And you know what I'm talking about that gap from weekend, like,
we want to get ripping back into that. And over that, I'm a little bit more bullish and think
we're going kind of to the highs of the range we made. And if not, we keep running down like we did
kind of aggressively today.
I'm sorry, I was getting a call.
I think it's running right back to the range lows.
I think it's pretty simple.
We're just trading in the middle right now in imbalanced price action.
And it's time to make a decision at some point.
But either way, I'm happy.
Either way, we're going to be able to catch moves.
I think there's a lot of catalysts upcoming with earnings and just economic data throughout the week.
So that should definitely give us some good setups on the intraday.
But it's tough, you know.
I like to just take it day by day.
And you know me, I'm going to have my thoughts.
But no matter what, if we're intraday trading, got to let the market really tell us what
it wants to do.
And so I'm trying to have my higher timeframe thoughts. And I mean,
we're still holding that range that we made from early April here on the lows. So we'll see if we
want to get moving back towards those lows. I really don't have any indication of that, especially
in the close today was fairly strong. After the nasty morning, we pretty much sold off all day
until like the last hour, last 30 minutes, we actually got a nice move back to the upside a lot more than I was expecting. And kind of what
we've seen in this, you know, bear market is early in the weeks, we started out pretty strong.
And then by Wednesday, you know, Wednesday's been around the high of the week lately, and
we've crumbled right down from there. So I think it's kind of actually fairly bullish to see the
market come
in Monday, you know, get a little nasty throughout the day, but then get bought up like this at the
end of the day. Now, whether or not, you know, I don't necessarily think this is saving the market
by any means, but I do think we're in for a nice little bounce depending on how this weekly candle
goes. But I do want to see more data, which just means, you know, I want to see tomorrow's trading
and how the range actually is, whether or not we're actually, you know, getting some moves to the upside, some continuation
of this move from the close or it's just a pop to go short again. But I do think no matter what,
even if we're getting some nice moves up throughout the week into next week, we're going to be moving
right into highs that I'm really looking to come right back down. I think the market does need to hit
some of these big range highs we've made on the way down so far and just rebalance to some big
areas. But either way, I think we're in for a lot of great trading, a lot of high volatility trading,
and not a whole lot of certainty on long-term direction, to be honest, for me. But we're going
to take it day by day and let the market tell us what it wants to do but uh but yeah those are my thoughts so far i'm i guess i'm a little more
optimistic on the market than most people but i can very quickly be wrong by tomorrow morning we'll
see well i think uh or one tweet away from everyone being right or wrong in a big way
that's the thing everybody's talking about some man-made problem i mean that might mean it's one tweet and this is all right back 20 up like michael mouse was saying you know
what i mean so i i can see it that's just like we got to be ready for the volatility and try and
catch as much of it as we can you know i think this is actually one of those bad moments in history
where it kind of proves that maybe don't give too much power to one person to dictate how trade policy goes.
I mean, that's why when they framed the Constitution, they left it up to the Congress to basically
do tariffs and not the president, because if the president came on, they might be a
little bit too authoritative with that power.
You know, so this just goes right back to, hey, listen, why did the Congress delegate
its powers to the presidency?
And if that's the case, then long term, maybe this is something that needs to be pulled back a little bit.
Yeah, good thought there, Chris.
And I'll just top off.
The panel here has already done a fantastic job laying out the market sentiment, the bigger picture thing.
job of laying out the market sentiment, the bigger picture thing. The only thing I'll top
off with is Jordan just mentioned, we do have a week opening gap above us that we did not fill.
Obviously, we capped down today to start the week and just trended down. And then Michael
Knauss was mentioning that the big candle from the news that came out, was it seven trading days
ago, I guess, that Wednesday when Trump tweeted out. We haven't
really filled in that. Some people look at fair value gaps or just coming back to back test where
that news hit the market. We haven't filled that in either. We're basically within that gap at this
point. I was watching this enter into it today as we took out some of the previous lows from the
past few days. So that's kind of where I'm at, too.
I'm seeing gaps on both sides. I'm not seeing any deals made across the board right now.
I think that's the biggest issue I have in being confident in anything right now is, yeah, we have the 90-day pause. Great.
But the comment I made back then and the comment that I think is still true is we have yet to see one single deal signed across the board.
So until that happens, I have trouble having a whole lot of confidence in a lot of these things.
But either way, I will finish up there and I'm ready to get the rest of these stock picks going.
Quick recap.
Last week, once again, we had everyone except for one picker
up here beat the market. That one person was actually very close in line with the market.
We had two people that finished green on the week, one basically break even,
and a cumulative return of negative 1.24% while the market itself, SPY was down 4.78 and QQQ 5.46.
So we beat the market by a very good clip there.
And I'm excited to hear what everyone else has.
Nick Drendel, I want to come back around to you and see what two picks you have for us this week.
Yeah, so I'm going to stay with the trend of the overall market. Like I said earlier,
we're below all the key moving averages. So if we were the opposite, everyone would be saying,
this is a bull market. We want to buy stocks and have them trend higher. So
a nice trick is just put a negative sign in front of your charting software, and then you'll get
those charts inverted uh so i'm
gonna go short on both of my picks uh the first pick i someone help me out is there a leveraged
home builders etf i'm looking at itb as an etf but if there's like a a leveraged one to short
oh wait is it nail hold on one sec and ail yes um i'm gonna show nail is
3x bull so you want a short nail right yes exactly yeah so looking at the underlying etf
itb we're below the key moving averages right we've had multiple gap downs um And really just, we didn't see like as much panic in this as I thought we would.
So if the market continues lower, this is already like right back near it slows. I think it can have
a pretty rough panic slide there. And then the other short I'm going to go with is SMCI. So this is a really nice chart to look at inverted because you get a double bottom base,
a nice handle, we're tightening up, and it looks like we're about to break out to the
upside.
So when you un-invert that, then it looks like it's ready to go a lot lower.
And this is the stock that, I mean, made my 2024, then went into stage three, now stage four, declined, below all the key moving averages, a lot of people trapped at higher prices.
It had this monster rally in February from 25 to like 65.
So that probably caught a lot of people trying to buy it higher.
And now we just bear flag lower, bear flag lower,
and now we're starting to waterfall down. So if the market stays weak this week,
then these two should continue to break down. All right. Nick Trendle with short nail,
which is the 3X bull. So he's short 3X leverage on the home builders. That's N-A-I-L
and then short SMCI, which we all know what kind of issues have shown up over there for the last,
I don't know, nine months or so. But Nick Drendel, appreciate that. And great work last week. Both
shorts played out and you were our top picker.
So just calling that out one time again.
Great job, Nick Trindle.
And let's move down the line.
Michael Knauss, what two picks do you have for us this week?
Sure thing.
So as always, I like to give the caveat that I am a systems trader.
So I don't know really anything about these companies.
It's simply a exercise of, you know, I run my stats and I run my algos.
And at the end of every week, they say, hey, buy these stocks if they reach these levels.
And away we go.
So, all right, both these are from the mean reversion system.
All right. Both of these are from the mean reversion system. Again, we've got part of what I like to do is that we've got systems for everything, right? Mean reversion, trend following, and combine those systems to try to make sure that we're covering all aspects. into this if you ever do this testing um the best way to smooth out equity returns over the long run
is to run multiple systems that will perform better in different markets but most of my trend
following systems are off right now so both of these are mean reversion and if you want to know
more about these companies on my little my feed there i actually did a video uh earlier in the
day about this so again both these we're, hopefully that it pulls back a little bit more
before we move higher.
The first one is ATEX,
a communications company.
They get no idea what they do.
However, it is really range bound
and you'll see a lot of these stocks
are looking for just this.
They're looking for overextended moves down to support and then vice versa to the short side.
We're looking overextended moves up to resistance for all the reasons that I talked about earlier, that the market is currently range bound.
It's a massive range and it's very volatile intraday, but it is just range bound.
So if I can find stocks that are at support and buy them there, sell them at
resistance, that type of thing. It's what's been working most of the year, even as the market's
been selling off. So it's what we're continuing to focus on. So one thing I like about this ATEX
as well is that it looked close to filling a gap. So this thing gap from about $30 and then ran to you know 45 or so and then it's been pulling back
ever since with a pretty big big pullback day today around 30 bucks or so getting close to
fill that gap so yeah perfect world we we overshoot a little bit more to the downside
so we can get a better price there and if you zoom out on this ATX chart you can see this $30 has been support going
all the way back to 2019 so six years of it just bouncing off this level and again we're not looking
to buy this thing and have it shoot up to 80 bucks or something we're looking to buy it and hold it
for a couple days to a week and then get out from there so there's that one and then there's mdgl and mdgl
is a a pharmaceutical company this one has been relatively strong recently just a really strong
name it keeps bouncing off this resistance it has around 330 or so this one actually full disclosure
triggered today and i got in both of these. So I got in this
ATX on the close and I got in this one earlier in the day. As you can see in the video there,
I always try to remember to disclose that when I get in, but it's the same kind of look, right?
This kind of $300 a share-ish area at $285, you could say. When we were there in January, we ripped from $285 all
the way up to $385, and then we pulled back there again. So both these names are just,
looking at the charts, just incredibly boring and range-bound names. But that's, to be honest,
kind of what I'm looking for. I don't want stocks that are very much participating in the sell-off.
for right i don't want stocks that are very much participating in the sell-off i don't want the big
cap names that are are getting dumped on here i want names like this that are range bound and
they're not glory trades they're not glamorous by any means we are simply buying support and then
we are flipping out and selling resistance and like i mentioned before trying to make a few bucks
and try to stay alive until the markets get fun again and they're trending to new highs.
So until that happens, these are the kind of boring plays I'll be taking with MDGL and ATEX.
Beautiful. Great having you back, Michael Knauss.
MDGL, that's Magical Pharmaceuticals on the long side.
And the other one was ATEX, that's magical pharmaceuticals on the long side and the other one was atex that's antarix incorporated uh both on the long side from michael nous trader nate you're up next
what two picks do you have for us this week yeah appreciate it so i'll get these pinned up at the
top as well and um you know i mentioned the markets are looking a little heavy and obviously trending down where the trend is lower.
But there are some names out there that you can find and you can go ahead and, you know, pick the gems amongst the crowd.
But you do want to take those profits quickly, like we've been talking about.
profits quickly like we've been talking about and this short week you know five day trading window
is is kind of exactly the the distance or the duration i want to mess around with so
the first pick this week you know i do think it could break out to another level is something i
haven't actually traded too much in the past but dollar tree ticker d l t r just posting it up top there and uh it is
you know been testing this this 77 level basically forever it's also where the 200 day moving average
is slid in uh broke out with some some meaningful force uh last week and then today held up you
know actually uh was positive on the day up over a percent
when markets were you know obviously reeling and our side nice and strong sitting in there at
61 and climbing so i like the way dollar tree sets up here especially if we do get a bounce
near-term bounce but even without it there's some strength i think showing up that is worth
paying attention to it could be a nice short shortterm trade to the upside. So DLTR is number one.
And the second I put up there is Roku. So interesting. I actually see this pattern form
on a number of charts here, but I like the way this one happens to look with the volume coming
in for Roku on the bullish engulfing candle today, effectively breaking out of this wedge that's been formed, this triangle that's been forming.
This is not the strongest of setups, I would say, but if it does run, I think it can make quite a big move.
And so I like the risk reward.
Again, take those profits quickly.
And for a quick five-day trade roku
to the upside i think looks pretty good for me strong day today uh when you know the market
overall was not looking so good um i think it was up yeah like over two percent today for sure
i was pushing uh maybe not maybe it was just up a percent but at the same time uh no i think it was it's over
two percent today uh maybe it's a 0.92 i think is after market so i'm looking at but either way
i like the strength on the down day here for roku see it continue higher that dollar tree
see if we get some green days ahead of us here those are my two picks this weekend, I'll hand it back to you. Appreciate that, Trader Nate. DLTR Dollar Tree
on the long side and Roku on the long side, which I guess there's not any tariffs on
digital services just yet. That was a conversation we started to have a little bit earlier today,
which would be an interesting thing if that ever does realize itself. But I know we've had a lot
of talk
about things that maybe aren't affected by tariffs roku seems like it may fit in that box a little
bit we'll see a lot of people making that same argument for netflix as well who just showed
very good numbers so trader nate dltr and roku on the long side and that leaves mr ace the kid jordan for your two picks flea sir oh boy
give me give me the triple leverage cues oh boy thank you and then we'll just run a double that
honestly you're not gonna take tesla and tesla earnings week no i kind of think it drops but i think if it drops it's potentially a setup to go higher
i think if we move higher now and get ready for some more shorts in my opinion i don't i don't
know i'm not letting i don't really put too much weight towards earnings and the details. I'm all about
the price action and Tesla. It's simple. We've come down to some big areas where we could see
some massive bounces and we've seen no aggression, just this accumulation sideways. A lot of people
could argue it's base. I argue if it was strong, it wouldn't be spending this much time right here.
So I think it's another leg down, to be honest.
But I would love to see a bullish setup come from that leg down afterwards.
We'll see.
But yeah, I don't know.
It doesn't look too great.
We'll see.
I'll tell you what's interesting.
As a group, a lot of times earnings season gets going.
People love grabbing the 2x, 3X leverage tickers for earnings plays.
One direction or another, usually to the upside, trying to capture that to win the competition.
And I'll tell you what, I don't think anyone other than Ben, who was talking about a small cap earlier,
took anything that has earnings this week.
That is a little bit of a change of dynamic, I guess, in our crew here with the pics right now.
I am getting this tweet typed up because I want to go ahead and send it,
and then I will call out these last couple pics that we haven't heard yet.
That should look good.
Let me post that and get that pinned up so everyone can take a look.
Let me get that up into the Nest or the J look let me get that up in to the nest or the
jumbotron whatever you want to call the top of spaces up here all right uh there it is and the
other two picks so our second place finisher was mr gav blacksberg of wolf financial of course he
had gdxu on the long side which was our second best pick behind Jordan's NFLU at 7.66%.
His total return 2.58%, giving him second place for last week.
And he wants to take BTGD, that is Bitcoin and gold, 100% allocation to both of those.
So basically leverage Bitcoin and gold from quantified funds as his first pick.
That's BTGD. So think Bitcoin gold as the ticker. And then he's running back waste management.
He's going back with the trash company again. He is Gav Blacksburg is super bullish trash.
That's straight from him. I don't't know that's those two picks
and then my two picks
I'm actually going to go with the same two picks
I took last week
Walmart and MercadoLibre
that's WMT
best company in the world
and M-E-L-I
Walmart of course is the best company in the world
I've counted the table on that
multiple times
some people think in jest
I honestly think it really is
I will say they
did pass Tesla today in terms of valuation. So Walmart back above Tesla. The reason I'm picking
these two, though, MercadoLibre, I have positions long in both of these stocks. These are two of the
few of the names that I have that are both above their 50-day moving averages. We know that the indices themselves and a lot of names are well below, not only 200-day, but well below the 50-day moving
average. And I have both of these names that are still hanging out just above their 50-day moving
average, showing me a lot of relative strength. Now, I'm not going to get any alpha if we go
downside, really, but to me, these are the safer plays. This is what I'm focused on is staying long stocks that have good strength.
And WMT Walmart and Mercado Libre, M-E-L-I, both of those showing that just above the 50-day.
And if you look up in the nest, you will see everyone's picks from this space tonight.
And we'll see how it goes.
Obviously, next Monday, we'll be back.
We'll call out the winners, the best ones out here, and see if we can beat the market again.
Once again, we did beat the market this past week at a pretty good clip, honestly.
And yeah, there we are.
We're a little bit over time here, but that's no problem.
Big shout out to the whole crew up here.
If you are in the audience,
you're missing out if you're not following these great speakers. Besides this Monday stock picking
show each and every week, you will see they have all kinds of great live content, different rooms
where they share ideas, where they do deep dives into stuff. A lot of live stream content out there
that I know I tune into, as well as, you know,
sub stacks to discords to everything else out there.
So make sure give them a follow and check out their content, especially if you hear something
that you like.
Go in and check out each one of these speakers.
Big shout out to all of them.
Michael Knauss, Trader Nate, Nick Drendel.
We had Chris Patel here a little bit earlier.
Of course, Jordan co-hosting with me.
Ben from Story
Trading, and Andrew over at Real Pristine Capital. We appreciate everyone. And with that, I'm going
to close this out and finish my Monday. We'll see if we can wake up to maybe a better day tomorrow.
I'm not 100% sure on that, looking at the charts, but we'll hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
I feel like that kind of sums up a lot of people's thoughts around this entire market right now and across this panel.
And once again, big shout out to everyone that tuned in.
Happy Monday.
Hope you have a great rest of your evening.
And we will be live right here on Wolf Financial first thing in the morning.
Jordan will be opening that up for us actually on the Wolf trading account. So make sure you watch out for that. Our future show kicks off at 8 a.m.
Eastern. So bright and early or dark and early if you're like me and Jordan getting started
talking futures in the morning, then straight into live trading and a whole full day of spaces
ahead of Tesla earnings. So make sure you don't miss out on any of that content.
We appreciate everyone. And with that, I am out signing off. Take care. We'll see you guys tomorrow. Thank you.
