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STOCK PICKS FOR THE WEEK!
Recorded: Feb. 17, 2026 Duration: 1:03:36Space Recording
Short Summary
Market sentiment remains volatile as major indices experience declines, with SPY down 1.74% and Q's down 2.28%. Investors are advised to adopt cautious strategies amid shifting trends, particularly in the tech sector, while utilities show potential for growth due to favorable interest rates.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. What is up, everyone?
Happy Monday.
I'm sorry.
Happy Tuesday.
Look at that.
Old habits die hard.
Happy Tuesday.
Usually we do this show on Monday.
But this week, obviously, with yesterday being a holiday,
I hope everybody had a great long weekend,
Valentine's weekend, and then President's Day yesterday.
And welcome in for this Tuesday version
of Stock Picks for the Week.
Got some of the crew joining up here.
Maybe some late notifications going out here.
But we're going to run the show.
The show must go on, as they say.
And I'm taking a look at the sheet right here
as Ben from Story Trading is,
he'll be here any second, I think.
But he just jumped in and made sure
the sheet got updated for me.
So shout out to Ben on that.
And I do have the results here that I'm looking at.
Let me make sure who won this past week, and then we'll dive into
all this different stuff. So I know one person, and he's already up here on stage,
and I think he knows he has it in the bag. That's first place, and I'm just double-checking
the numbers here for second, and third place, boom, right there. All right, here we go. Overall results from the last week,
and then we'll dive into the market sentiment stuff. So, Ben's typing in messages here. It's
cracking me up. All right, the last week, SPY down minus 1.74%, Q's down 2.28%. As a group, we were down 1.98% collectively. Now, obviously, a lot of crazy
things happened over the last week with a push higher and then a push right back lower. Today,
wild action. I'm really interested to see what everybody's takes are around the current market,
but either way, we're going to dive into it here. Our current champion.
Is this two weeks in a row, Will?
Is this two weeks in a row?
Didn't you win last week?
Let's go, baby.
There he is.
Look at Will just coming in, starting to dominate the show here.
Will, you got first place by a long shot.
11.74% return between your two picks.
H-O-O-Z to the long side,
which obviously it's who's,
it's the inverse long side.
20.16% return on that one.
And then in E-E, next era,
3.32% gave you an average of 11.74%.
So our repeat,
what's Bruce Buffer say?
And still, the champion.
First place.
Let me call out second and third place here.
Second place was myself.
I had CRWL to the long side, which is the leveraged CrowdStrike,
and then ARMG to ex-leveraged ARM.
I had a 4.32 and 3.39 on those two respectively. Gave me a 3.85% return over the last
week or just over a week. So I got that for second place. Third place is the other guy that just
joined us up here on stage, Ariel. Third place there, AVGX to the short side, 8.67% return on that one.
It balanced out his BE long, didn't do quite as well,
but still had a positive return, beat the market 1.84% for Ariel there
to get the third place podium slot.
And that's our top three right there.
So we'll go ahead and jump into some market sentiment thoughts here.
We'll kick it off with you, our current champion. Two weeks in a row, congrats.
Well done on the picks once again. And curious if you've got some overall market update thoughts as we back-tested, sold off a little bit over the last few days. A little bounce off the lows today,
but I'm curious, broader market sentiment, what are you seeing out there?
Thanks for that. It was another good week. As we saw utilities ramp into the upside last week with
lower interest rates, and then Robinhood did have earnings and missed slightly. So I think that
stock traded down, which worked out well. But overall, I think where we are in the marketplace,
traded down, which worked out well. But overall, I think where we are in the marketplace, a little
bit oversold in the short term. I was on stream with you a little bit earlier this morning from
the beach, but we did see a little bit of push pull in some of the sectors. Financials perked up
a little bit and kind of held the market in there. So we have, you know, if we look at the queues,
kind of held the market in there. So we have, you know, if we look at the queues, you have these,
this low around 594, which got tested and, and pushed slightly below it to 593.34.
And then we kind of rallied through the middle of the day and closed basically inside of,
was it Friday's range there. So I think we're a little extended from the nine,
but we are, in my opinion, in the short term,
still under the bigger downtrend line,
which really above 610 is probably the area
that we need to break above.
And then we broke that trend line even up towards 620.
So I think overall in the marketplace, maybe a little bit short term balance as we balance down here and maybe go sideways or maybe rally up a little bit.
But I'm still in the camp of technology.
Microsoft did not get off the floor today very much at 396.
Google rallied a little.
Amazon rallied a little.
But most of the tech names still a little bit on the
weaker side with the exception of Apple, which was up 3%. So that got beat up last week. So I think
the narrative right now is probably, I think, still sell rallies into strength in the short
term of technology. And we saw money come out of oil today. We saw money come out of utilities,
out of staples, and kind of rotate a little bit back into some of the tech stocks. So I think
right now we're kind of in a wait and see mode. But if we do get some rallies under 610, I think
those are shortable. And I think ultimately the Qs probably need to go test 580, which is the 200 period 581.
So that 580 level is probably in play over the next week or two.
Are you still in the rallies probably get sold type of camp?
I mean, are we a little overdone here?
Probably just from the last few type of camp. I mean, are we a little overdone here? Probably just from the last
few days of selling. But I'm curious, I mean, do you see any reason that we bounce back here or
that we saw further? Or are you kind of in a, hey, it's played out kind of what I saw and now I'm
kind of sitting waiting because we are at the bottom of the range that we've built the last
several months, basically. Yeah, I think in the big picture,
we're still probably in more of a digestion move lower
as some of the bigger stocks have obviously the mega cap names.
You look at the MAG7 have traded pretty poorly
and all they've done is bounce.
I mean, if you look at the MAGS, which is MAGS, the Magnificent 7 ETF,
I mean, we've basically bounced just off the lows and really haven't gone anywhere.
So Apple was obviously an outperformer.
But ultimately, I think that rallies in the interim probably still get sold
is a lot of the big tech names charts still don't
look that great. And obviously, we have NVIDIA earnings next week, which could obviously turn
the market in either direction. So next Wednesday, we got NVIDIA is going to come out. But I still
think you want to be trading small. Keep your size appropriate as the VIX is still elevated.
It's great for premium selling. I did a lot of that today, which worked out great. But I still think that rallies in the short term to the
upside, unless we can clear on the shorter term basis, like 610 in the Qs, and then on longer
term basis, I'm not really bullish unless we get above 620. And I think that for now, I think I
would be looking to sell rallies
if we do move a little bit higher from here.
There you go.
Well, fantastic job on your picks from last week.
Current champion, two weeks in a row, and incredible return there.
Hold on, I clicked on the wrong thing.
Yeah, there we go.
H-O-O-Z and then N-E-E.
Do you still see, I mean, utilities?
Do you think the safety names?
I mean, don't give away your picks of anything yet,
but I'm just, where are you looking for operating?
Are you looking for like maybe shorting
some of these software tech
or are you still looking to be long utilities?
So energy came in a little bit today.
I'm just curious, like which sectors of the market
you're looking at here.
Yeah, so I looked at last week, I was short. I started shorting on Thursday, shorted some
energy, uh, just because I think the runs extended as long as we stay out of Iran in the short term.
Uh, OPEC did announce that they're going to increase production in April. So I think oil,
uh, moving back down, I think it was below 60, 62 today.
I'd even been below 61, finished at 6230.
So it did, it did move down from the 64 level.
So I think some of these sectors that ran a little bit higher, like staples and utilities
and energy, those all pulled back today.
Look at Walmart and some of the other names in that space that pulled back and they
kind of rotated into tech and back into financials. So you might see this rotation out of those names
that were hot in the last week or two, which is Staples, Utilities, and Energy, and maybe
move back into some of the tech names and maybe the financial names. But I would think that these utilities and staples are probably a buy on the pullbacks,
along probably with healthcare that's a little bit more defensive.
And if we do get lower rates, utilities will continue to outperform.
And they've had a pretty big run in the last week or two.
So I still like the utilities to the long side as a defensive position.
And with lower interest rates, I think that'll keep a bid under the utility sector as well.
So that's kind of what I'm looking at.
But I think you sell tech on the rallies again until further notice and look
for that five 80 level in the queues.
And then we'll see what we do there and still look for defensive names to,
to buy on pullbacks.
There you go.
We'll appreciate you sharing your thoughts.
We'll come back around here shortly and get your two picks from you.
Let's go to Ariel.
Ariel beat in the market last week as well.
Second best pick of the week with that AVGX short,
the leveraged Broadcom short there.
Ariel, great job.
First off, you're on the podium again.
What are you seeing out there in the markets?
Where are you finding opportunities?
What are your thoughts on the broader market?
Maybe you have any thought on where we're headed next
or if you're kind of in a sit and wait,
I'm just kind of curious on that temperature
of where you think maybe we go over this next few days
to the next week
and then just where you're finding opportunities out there.
I'm not getting any audio. Is anybody else?
No, I don't hear them.
Ariel, see if you can unmute again, maybe check your mic input.
If not, we can bring you right back up.
Yeah, I'm still not getting anything there. Ariel, maybe we bring you right back up.
We'll come back around to you, if you will. Just drop down. We'll get you right back up here.
Let me see. Boom.
Let me send another invite to him. See if we can reconnect and get a mic check.
There he is.
There he is.
Now we got you, Ariel.
What's going on?
I actually agree with much of what Will was saying.
Obviously, we've had, and even looking at a Pan W, you know, fifth biggest name in software,
it's just, it seems to be a sector which continues to get no love as much as I, you know, you look at it and you want to say to yourself, you know, oversold rallies do
any moment. But I do agree with much of what Will has said. I actually think that it is possible
that the queues even go a bit lower than the 200 day. And, and much of it would have to do with if the mags roll over and lose
their respective 200-day, and then just the way software is performing right now. You see utilities
obviously outperforming over the last couple of weeks. The XLV actually looks fairly constructive.
XBI doesn't look all that terrible. PPH, which is pharmaceuticals,
is also acting well. Yes, consumer staples had a bit of a pullback today, but it still feels like
that sector is the sector that is trying to continue to perform well. Industrial still
continue to perform well. It does feel a little bit like risk off. And obviously with NVIDIA
earnings coming up within the next
couple of weeks, right, we're still just living in a massive range, you know, anything below 194
and then effectively above the 200 day, it just feels like we can continue to chop on the cues.
And I'm probably in the camp, same as Will, just, you know, kind of rip the bandaid off, please.
Let's, you know, reset the deck a littleaid off, please. Let's, you know,
reset the deck a little bit. Maybe software names can actually start to bottom. Maybe we start to
get some actual risk on the market if we can get a bit of a move down, you know, in the queues and
kind of, you know, like I said, maybe bottom some of those software stocks.
But it's just been such a choppy environment.
I do still continue to own some XOM, but I've owned it since, you know, effectively early December.
Not much really I can do with it, except just kind of hang on to it and see if it'll, you know, build out a, you know, like a higher base up here. But Energies, I don't blame him for, you know, even taking a, you know, a, like a higher base up here, but energies, I don't blame him for,
you know, even taking a little bit of a short there, maybe short term overbought in the energy
space as well. But yeah, it's just a tricky environment because just when everybody starts
to get a little bit bearish and you're thinking they're going to rip off the bandaid, you get a,
you know, multi-day rally. And then just as soon as everybody gets a little bit bullish, they just kind of drop
you back down.
I don't really love to see the queues hanging out underneath the 50-day.
But man, it's just a tricky place to be.
I am in agreement that XLV still looks fine.
It's just been going sideways for multiple weeks.
You know, tan looks pretty interesting for solars. But, you know, I wish I had a better read on the market, but I think
it's fairly confusing here. So I don't, I don't exactly know what my next move is other than just
continue to sit in the positions that I have working, but it does feel like, and this is kind of why I'm so
confused, right? The Qs have done such a nice job holding up this well, while you've gotten
absolute destruction within the software space and semiconductors are kind of holding up well.
So part of me says, do Semi's bottom, do Crypt that brings some, you know, risk appetite back into
the market. And then at that point, you know, that could really help breadth expand. And then
we're off to the races in, you know, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Okay. That all sounds good.
Or do the mag start to come under pressure? Does the XLF financials finally start to roll over beneath the 200? In which case, that is no good at all for obviously the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ as well.
And then, you know, you look at it from another perspective where you go, well, XLF looks so poor, but the KRE looks so great.
I don't know that I can remember a time when, you know, banks, you know, the big banks were acting terrible and then regional banks were acting great.
So does the market begin to play a little catch down to what we've seen in software
or has the market done such a nice job being resilient that the sentiment has gotten so
washed out in software? Meanwhile, the indices themselves have done such
a nice job holding up near highs. What happens if software short-term bottoms or bottoms for the
next month? Or then has a really nice oversold rally? That probably sucks everybody right back
into the market. And then ultimately, does that mean XLP pulls back? I think there's just so many unanswered questions from, you know, my own perspective. And I've had a hard time gaining traction on the swing side of the market. So everything is just these, you know, you're kind of buying weakness, you're selling into some supply, you know, you're shorting over extensions or you're shorting into supply, and then you're covering weakness just a day or two or three
later. That's really all the market's giving right now. It's tough. If it were a little bit
easier and I could get a better read on the market, I'd love to share a better opinion.
But right now when I'm having a hard time just gaining traction, it's hard to have too much
conviction on either side of the market.
Ariel, to your point, I think that's a great, great observation is that I think that we're in a space where you may have rotation back into, could be the software space that gets a bid,
and maybe it comes out of the other sectors that have been hot, like the utilities,
like Staples, et cetera. And we might, in the short term, we might just get this more churn,
like you're talking about, where we kind of just more rotation back into software.
Maybe it's out of those names, and we kind of just keep churning this market.
And I think the big key takeaway is that at some point,
we will probably see things start to get more and more correlated.
And I think that's, if we do to the downside, At some point, we will probably see things start to get more and more correlated.
And I think that's if we do to the downside, that's when you're going to see more extended selling is when you start to see all the sectors start to participate to the downside.
And then you're going to start to want to look for for for washouts and bottoms, etc. But again, the VIX is not that elevated.
not that elevated. So the selling has been relatively orderly. So I think maybe in the
So the selling has been relatively orderly.
short term, you know, iron condors, strangles, selling premium in a little bit elevated VIX
environment can work in the short term. And I think we're just in more of kind of a choppy
back and forth until we get more stuff correlated. When you see all the sectors down during the day
and you don't get this push pull, I think that's when you'll see either more selling to the downside or on the flip side,
if we rally, when you see all the sectors to the upside.
Yeah. And we've seen a lot of that recently, Will.
Well, you'll see financials down and then you'll see the XLP up.
And then today you'll see the XLF up and then you'll see the XLP down.
Or you've even seen it within the mega caps as well.
You'll see,
you know, some, you'll see Google and you'll see Microsoft down, but then for a handful of days,
Apple's just ripping. And then all of a sudden the queue is starting to get a bounce. And then
for a few days in a row, right, you've got, you know, Apple getting hammered for back-to-back
days. So it's just been incredibly choppy where it feels like the market's just trying to grind us lower.
And I hate that because it obviously makes it a super difficult environment.
I'm with you.
If we can just get a really nice pullback to the 200-day, hopefully even lower, something to the tune of 10% to 12% off highs, and then we can start to say to ourselves, what's holding up best in that tape?
And then that's probably once the market gives you some sort of a follow through day to the upside,
and then hopefully not dealing with a grinding, chopping market to the downside anymore.
And we're back in a nice sustained uptrend, a healthier uptrend, because ever since middle of
October, it's just been absolutely brutal out here. Yes, a couple of tradable pockets,
whether it was the metals or the memory stocks or these optic names, or maybe even shorting some of
the overextended silver. So good trade opportunities out here. But otherwise, it's just been incredibly
choppy, especially when our favorite growth names are getting beaten up. So tough environment, man, tough environment. Really good back and forth. Some good thoughts.
One thing I would, I would point out, I thought this morning when I looked and I saw, yeah, it
looked risk off, like almost everything was selling, but then I look, I see the XLF actually,
you know, positive and doing decent this morning. But outside of that, it looked like we were kind
of, we were starting
to get the risk off, but then market caught a bid today. It's been very choppy. And one point that
I would make before I go over to my friend, Nick Drendel, Ariel mentioning there like,
hey, I don't have a whole lot of confidence to make a call right now. I think that is important.
I'm glad you said that. And I know you said it kind of with a caveat of, I hate to say this,
but I think it's important that we say things like that.
It's very helpful to the audience and everyone to say, hey, there's times in the market where there's not a clear picture of what's coming next.
Exactly. There's times in the market, periods of the market where you, hey, I don't have a clear view.
I don't probably need to do a whole lot right here.
I probably need to wait for a clearer picture and let this kind of sort itself out. So I do think I wanted to highlight that piece that
you heard from Ariel there. I think that's important for when you hear people say that is,
hey, I don't have a clear view right now, so I probably need to coast off into the right lane
a little bit, take the foot off the gas pedal, wait for that next setup in the market. So I do
commend you for saying that, even though I do, I commend you for saying
that, even though I know you kind of apologize for saying it. I think that was an important thing
for the audience, for everyone to hear. So let's go over to Nick Drendel though. Nick Drendel,
you've heard Will and Ariel's thoughts there. I'm curious if you've had any different perspectives
or if you agree with that perspective and anything new that you want to add to the
conversation here. Great to have you, sir. Yeah, thanks for having me on. I think they summed it up really well in just how choppy
this market is. So one thing that I always go back to is very like newer traders should have a very,
very simple system to tell them if they're allowed to put on new exposure or not. And when I first started to revamp my own trading,
I just used the 20-day EMA on the NASDAQ.
Above that, it was a risk-on environment.
I could put trades on.
Below that, it was a risk-off environment.
I should spend more time studying
and doing other things that are gonna improve
my trading down the line
when the market environment comes back.
And right now, we're under the 20-day EMA.
Volatility on the index are very, very high. We're seeing a lot of the previous market leaders
break down into stage four downtrends like Robinhood and Palantir. And this is just a market
where if you're a new trader, this is the perfect time to take a step back, not do any trading and go
back and study what were the best stocks in 2020. Let me go bar by bar by bar studying
them. What are the best stocks? 23, 24, 25, like all of that. There's so much ROI in your
attention outside of actually placing trades in a market like this, where if you come back
completely retooled with your screening,
your risk management, your setups, your market environment knowledge, you're going to be a much
better trader than trying to trade every single twist and turn of this choppy market that really
does not have much follow through. Now that depends if you're a swing trader or if you're a
day trader. If you're a day trader, this is the type of market that you hope for. You get tons of volatility, you get intraday reversals on
an intraday timeframe, like pretty large legs. So this is the environment that you have to
take advantage of. And it all kind of boils down to what type of trader that you want
to be. But as someone who is a swing trader, in an environment like this, you have to change your entry tactics if you're going to trade.
Buying breakouts in a market like this maybe works one out of 10 times, two out of 10 times.
But really, the best trades on the long side are when you undercut either a previous low, a support gap, a round number, or like a key moving averages,
and then immediately respond to that level. And those are some of the trades that you
could put on. But even though it's like our lower win rate, they should give you an immediate
response if you're coming into a key level. But it's still a challenging market because
you're not getting those multiple weeks of follow through.
It's like, okay, there's your first little pop.
Let's sell a third into the strength on day one.
Let's move half our stop to break even and then see if we can get a two to three day push into declining moving averages to sell the rest into.
Or on the flip side, if you're shorting stuff, you want to short into pops into declining
moving averages like Palantir's gap up on earnings, just a layup of a short.
So more stocks that are gapping up on earnings into declining moving averages or resistance
gaps.
Those are the types of trades that I've been trying to put on.
And even like switching your entry tactics, I'm not putting on large size.
Like at this point, it's not the market environment for me to try to make a lot of money.
It's me trying to cash flow some trades, keep in touch with what's going on in the market,
but ultimately not do anything to ruin my mentality, my capital for when the market actually turns around
and we get a nice clean uptrend to trade.
Now we have started to see some positioning come down NAIM active investors exposures
at 80%.
Still not at the levels that we usually see corrections end between like 40 to 60%.
So we're heading in the right direction. There is
now finally money on the sidelines, but not really enough where you're going to get a super clean
uptrend. When we bottomed in April of 2025, I think we were at 36% to put that into perspective.
So we're heading in the right direction. We're continuing on in this corrective action. I know
technically it's not a correction because we're not down 10%, but this is corrective action in my
eyes. And one thing that I've done over the last two years was compare the market to the previous
cycle. So 2025 reminded me a lot of 2020, where we were at highs, and then we had a very sharp downtrend for, what is it, six weeks or so, where we dropped 20% on the NASDAQ, and then we immediately reversed, put in those higher lows, and just ripped higher.
And a lot of people remember the first part of 2021 where growth stocks were extremely strong.
But growth stocks really, for the most part, topped out in February of 2021.
And the indexes themselves didn't get that much damage in 2021.
In February, we had like a pullback, sure.
But it wasn't nearly as much damage as we saw with the growth stocks. And then
we just kind of grinded higher for the rest of the year and then eventually went into
the bear market in 2022. And I think that's kind of my mentality for the rest of this
year is like, okay, we match 2020 and 2020 in 2025 almost perfectly. We're starting
2026, very similar to how we started 2021. And just a little bit later stages of this
bull market. So I think if you're trying to trade your traditional growth names, it's
been very, very tricky, especially if you're trying to trade anything on strength.
But there are other pockets of the market that are extremely strong, like energy.
First pullback in the energy to like a 20-day moving average, something like that. That's something that I would look to play on the long side.
But I cannot stress this enough.
For newer traders, if you're in your first like three years,
the amount of time and effort that you could be placing away from actually like making trades and into improving your systems is going to pay off way, way more than what stock is going to go up
10% this week, hit declining moving averages and then roll over. I love that, especially that last comment.
I think it's very, very important there.
I do want to highlight, Nick, you had the second best,
or I'm sorry, the third best pick of the week
with your Tark short, which was an interesting pick.
I think a lot of people maybe were not familiar with that ticker,
but you basically said, hey, these high beta names, I'm going to short those. And you had 6.71% return on
that. So I'm just, any thoughts around that piece of the high beta? How does that fit into,
like you were seeing, I mean, great pick, by the way, but you were seeing like, hey,
here's a basket of stocks instead of having to pick an individual stock here or there.
You said, here's a basket of stocks that of, you know, having to pick an individual stock here or there. You said, here's a basket of stocks that are high beta that, you know, bounced a little bit
after, you know, being crushed, but still in a downtrend. Kind of sounds like that fits into
your scenario that you mentioned there. Yeah, I am short. Well, I'm technically long SARK,
which is the inverse of ARKK. The ARK is, I think, the two times leverage long.
But I mean, this ETF is just filled with trash and it's already under the 200-day moving average.
It rejected the 10-day on that little pop last Tuesday, which was when I put the trade on.
And even today, like a little bit of strength there, but ARKK is still under the five-day moving average.
If we actually have any type of correction, this ARKK, it feels like it's going to continue
to go lower.
So that's a position that I look to add on, like any pops into declining moving averages.
And if I could stop out of that, that's a good sign that, hey, maybe this market is
turning around.
And then I can target instead of like stocks and major downtrends that ARKK likes to pick up,
I could focus on the leading stocks that are emerging out of this corrective phase.
Nick, to your point, I was just going to add that I think that this is more like you said,
like 22, where I don't think we have like that just V bottom recovery.
It could be more like, you know, stair step down to your point and to newer traders or people that are that are, you know, been trading the last few years.
It's like you really need to be patient and look for levels and don't think this is a bottom because it could be a short term bottom that rallies up and gets sold again.
So I think you need to keep your position size small.
Look for the areas of stuff that's really beat up that starts to show some bullish price
action.
But I would not try to catch a falling knife here.
And I would definitely just be more patient before you're putting on trades, especially
with any size.
Keep the size small.
If you're going to leg into some stuff, do it with really small positioning. And I think you'll win out in the long term doing it that way.
Agreed.
Yeah, great dialogue. Again, I love the dialogue that we're having back and forth
on this space with the different thoughts and stuff. We're going to go over to Vegas next.
We'll come back around, of course, get everyone's two picks in the back half of the show. But Vegas, we're still above the 200-day moving average.
There's still a lot. I mean, it's still a bull market. You're always bullish, which makes sense
because the market does go up more times than not. Talk me off the ledge here a little bit,
Vegas. What are you seeing in the market? Well, you know, last week I was a bear. I mean, I did short some option puts because I had to switch sides
because the market was telling me we're going down.
So I think right now my thoughts on the market really are just that a lot of value stocks
and the broader market are kind of acting well.
If you look at the Dow Jones, the Nise Composite, and the S&P ETF in other defense sectors,
but growth stocks, in my opinion, are not acting well.
And so I think I like to invest in the actual growth stocks.
So I am trying to take advantage of the fact
that some of these growth stocks are down
because I'm pretty confident that as time will evolve, we're going to see those growth stocks come back strong.
There's a lot of longer term growth names in the space sector, the aerospace sector, semiconductors, the biotechs, and many data center related stocks. That's the
place to be for the longer term growth theme. So like a stock like Nvidia, in my opinion,
like I love it. I don't care if it's down. It's green today, but it was down earlier in the
morning. And it's like no panic selling at all, because I know where that stock's going. Apple was a bit of a
nightmare. Like it was mentioned earlier, it was pop and drop with Apple. So, you know, I'm not
invested in Apple, but I'm invested in NVIDIA because I love the growth story with NVIDIA.
So, you know, my thoughts on the market really is that there's still a lot of persistent AI anxiety, which is really, really weighing in on high valuation tech and software stocks.
It's kind of extending the recent volatility, and it is also contributing to last week's losses across the indices.
I did see that the financials did outperform, like JP Morgan, Citigroup.
perform like JP Morgan Citigroup. Really, that was bolstered by the Fed commentary today,
suggesting rates may steady for some time, supporting net interest margins. And we saw
really the broader market saw a rotation away from the mega cap tech towards more value oriented or
defense areas. And also to note the VIX, the volatility eased somewhat. And the commodities like oil kind of dipped on geopolitical headlines with the U.S.-Uran talks.
And then obviously Bitcoin was kind of hovering around that 68,000.
So today I felt that it was a recovery day from intraday lows in a market that I feel is still digesting this AI shakeup concerns ahead of upcoming data.
Like we have the Fed minutes coming out, I believe on Wednesday and core PCE inflation.
So trading still remains choppy and really there's no strong directional conviction just yet.
So, you know, like some of you've mentioned on the panel, you really got to know, like,
what kind of trader are you?
Are you a value growth trader?
Then take advantage of these opportunities.
Like companies like Meta look phenomenal.
NVIDIA looks amazing.
So I love those kind of companies that even if the pulls back, I don't care.
I take advantage of these opportunities because they're growth companies.
And the CapEx is through the roof.
through the roof. We obviously have NVIDIA earnings next week, so that could change the
We obviously have NVIDIA earnings next week.
So that could change the dynamics.
dynamics. But right now, I'm not swing trading anything in terms of like from an options angle,
because I still don't have conviction yet on where does the market really want to go?
So I'm just going to be a sit and wait. Right now, I'm just in day trade mentality,
you know, scalp away or just take, you know, just in and out of uh setups i really want to
see the spy break 6.95 this week before i even consider going long on any swing trades on an
options angle so right now swing trading for me is not happening until I have conviction. So I'm really going to be watching the spy over 695 to consider taking a position on any stock that I want to swing.
So that's kind of, you know, my take on it.
And, you know, the AI is not going anywhere.
You know, everyone gets scared about AI and jobs and all that stuff.
That is just so much noise in the market. You really have to gets scared about AI and jobs and all that stuff. That is just so much
noise in the market. You really have to just block that out. Okay, you have to really look at the big
picture. And you know, the market's always looking forward, it doesn't look backwards. It's always
forward looking. So you really want to look at the market going forward. And so going forward, you
know, companies like the Apples, the Amazons, the Metas, the NVIDIAs, they're going to do extremely well this year.
We're going to look back at the price of these stocks today.
You know, look back in a month from now or two months from now, even next quarter, you'll see these stocks will be going up.
So take advantage if you like to growth stock investors. So right now, just day trading, no swing trade,
but in terms of long-term investing, major opportunities right now, major.
I appreciate those thoughts. I think there's some important things that you said there as well,
the entire panel really sharing some really helpful thoughts, especially if you're in the
audience, hope you're paying attention to this. Of course, as always, this entire space is recorded.
If you got in here a little bit late,
you can obviously listen back to the recording
once we finish up today
and catch some of these great thoughts.
Vegas, one thing that you said there,
I think was very important,
was you are almost always bullish
and you played puts, you played the downside
because the market told you to.
And you pivot, I think it's very important. People are always like, well, you were just
bullish. You were just bullish. When the market tells you something different, you have to do
what it's telling you and you have to play the other side sometimes or not play anything at all.
I'm not saying everyone has to go short or buy puts or whatever, but as a trader, I think you
have to be flexible and you have to be able to pivot like you just heard Vegas say on here in the short term. And at the same time, it sounds like it's all doom and gloom
and things aren't looking great. You hear a lot of very experienced people saying that, but
at the same time, we are just at the bottom end of the range. If you look over the last three and
a half months on the NASDAQ, yeah, some stocks have been wiped out, but the full indice itself, we're just basically at the bottom of the range that we've been in for three plus months.
If you look at the SPY, the S&P, at the lows today, we're only 3% off of all-time high. We closed almost 2% down from all-time high. And we saw some MAG-7s catch a bid near the bottom of this range again today. So it is interesting. It is kind of like, hey, what's coming next?
And most of what I'm hearing from the panel is take it day by day.
You can play move by move, but swing trading and bigger picture clarity is just not there
right now.
That's been my main takeaway from listening to all these great panelists.
And I'm going to go over to my co-host now to get kind of the final thoughts on the broader
market. Then we'll get into the picks. But Jordan, you read price action
within your system. You see, you know, we kind of sleep into some big daily areas today,
for example. And I'm curious to get kind of your updated thoughts here as we test some pretty
important spots of liquidity across the market. I'm curious what you're, big picture, short, maybe shorter, medium-term picture,
if anything's changing here.
And also, by the way, Jordan, your picks last week did really well for the first three days or so.
Yeah, for the first three days.
You know, if the competition ended on like Thursday morning or Wednesday evening,
it would have been fantastic.
We had some really crazy two-way action.
But I'm curious, what are your thoughts here?
I guess I'm looking at things slightly differently than some of the panel,
to be honest.
I feel like I have a ton of clarity here.
Last week, we closed on Thursday after dropping to some bigger levels.
We have been consolidating since Thursday, Friday, pretty much consolidated into the bank holiday Monday.
And today, you see us open up, and we take out all of those lows from Friday.
We take out the Monday session low from yesterday, all the overnight lows,
Asia low, London low. We even swept that IB low after 1030 amp. And since then, it's been
beautiful price action to the upside into those Asia highs from last night and then Monday's high
from yesterday. And so from here, I mean, I still see us going higher from here. We have Friday's high that we've never taken out yet,
which I'm looking at because we do have a daily imbalance there,
which hasn't been tapped into any, especially on a bigger timeframe.
So I'm not going to be kidding.
To me, all these things are to accumulate. Is it roboting for anyone else? Is that just me?
Yeah, no, it's roboting.
Me too.
Okay.
Is it?
Jordan, you were roboting there just a little bit. If you want to give it another shot or see.
Can you hear me?
I got you. Once you said it was kind of like, it was, you know, it came
off of a really important area and you were looking back up upside in the, in the near
term, then it started roboting a little bit.
So maybe the last like sentence or two that you said.
Yeah.
So, I mean, overall, I just think after having selling off Thursday, Friday, uh, and then,
you know, Tuesday is even slightly red on the daily chart today.
Um, I just think it's very possible
we get a bounce after sweeping all those bigger timeframe lows to at least go rebalance the spot
I have on the daily, which is 24,955 on NQ. That's where that daily gap starts and Friday's
high is. So I think whether or not this market ends up really reversing from here or going lower,
we're going to have to retest the spot because
this is an imbalance in price that needs to get mitigated. So I think the real decisions will
come there on whether this market wants to maybe trade to those February lows from February 6. I
can see that happening potentially, but not if we just run through this daily spot, which will be
over $25,058. So it's kind of my thoughts here. I'm pretty clear bullish up until Friday's high.
And then once that happens, we'll see what this market wants to decide, whether we want to run
through that area or hold it and keep going lower. But to me, just a lot of clarity in the price
action lately. So I'm feeling good. Yeah, I love getting the perspective that you have over there,
especially looking at the futures and looking at the way your trading model works out there. And you tap into a big area of liquidity like we did today and you get bought back up. Some people will call it a reclaim. Some people will call it a draw on liquidity.
But the perspective is there.
And that's what I'm glad Jordan shared from his point of view.
And now if we go, you know, move back up is what he's looking at.
If we do that in the next, you know, 24, 48 hours and reject from there,
obviously it's still, it's back to what, you know, most of us are saying.
But it's like, but in the next thing know most of us are saying but it's pretty game i mean but in the
next thing but but yeah i just want to clarify like in the next year you're saying hey you know
if we get there in a day then it's there in a day but until we get there you're that's where you're
looking for is the next draw is is back to the upside a little bit which would also and will
made this point at the start of these comments is you know you look at like where the daily nine
ema is on on on q on QQQ or NQ.
And you see that you're getting a little extended from that again. And anytime you get really
extended from, you know, a faster moving average, like a, like a nine, some people use a 10,
some people use a five, whatever it is. But when you get a little extended from that, a lot of
times you rebalance back to it a little bit because you're, you're a little bit overdone.
And the worst case, I think, you know, Will brought
this up. He used the dirty word 2022, which we don't like around these spaces. So Will, I just
want to, you know, reprimand you for even bringing that up because there's some bad memories, I think,
for some traders around 2022. But no, jokes aside, that kind of, you know, orderly leveling down,
you know, grindy down price action, I think is almost
worst case scenario for a lot of people, at least on the trading side and swing trading side. So
hopefully we don't get that, but it is a commonplace in the market just to tie everyone's
thoughts here together. And well, some great thoughts today, by the way, just shout out to
the crew. Make sure you're following all of these great panelists that come up here. We're on a Tuesday today instead of a Monday, so a little bit lighter crowd.
But boy, there's been some absolute gold shared for you guys in here today.
So make sure you follow all these speakers.
Check out the things that they're doing elsewhere, other live streams.
I know some of the guys are on live streams with me.
Some of them have their own.
Some of them have their own rooms and other places that they're trading.
Make sure you check out all of those wonderful things.
And with that, what, go ahead, Jordan.
It's actually Evan on here.
I would like to get a stock pick in if that's possible.
Okay, Evan.
First off, no, nevermind.
I'm not going to go there.
Evan, give me, you can kick us off with the stock picks.
Oh, we're starting.
Oh, okay.
Are you ready for this, everyone?
BMNG and BMNU.
Thank you, everyone.
Okay, we're doing it.
I don't think anybody was taking those anyway, so.
Yeah, we're not going to be worried
about anybody taking leveraged long BMNR
other than Evan.
And Evan may look like an absolute genius here
if crypto gets a bounce here.
May look like an absolute genius.
But that's our friend Stock Market News, of course. If you didn't recognize the voice, An absolute genius here if crypto gets a bounce here. May look like an absolute genius.
But that's our friend Stock Market News, of course.
If you didn't recognize the voice, you should have.
Evan jumping in, giving two quick picks there.
BMNU, BMNG.
So two leverage long BMNR from Stock Market News.
If it doesn't work out, please send all of your hate mail to Stock Market News.
And while you're at it, subscribe to that free newsletter.
It's one of my favorite things in the afternoon.
So shout out to Evan for joining us there for a brief second behind Jordan's phone.
All right, let's get into the picks.
I do want to call out Ariel.
Sent a message.
He was able to jump in, share the thoughts with us.
He had to run, but we do thank him for stopping by.
He sent two picks.
I'll just go ahead and call those out.
He is short AVGX again.
That's a repeat pick that he had last week.
He's running it back.
Short 2X leverage Broadcom.
He's also short GDXU, gold miners.
The gold miners on the leverage side there.
Short AVGX, short GDXU from Real Simple Aerial.
And we'll go over to our champion, Will, for his two picks of the week.
Will, what you got for us this week?
Back-to-back champion, might I add.
There we go. So I'm going to go on the long side this week,
and maybe we get a little bit of a bounce in tech
into maybe Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
So I'm going to go with AM with amzu which is double long amazon and the other one
is gonna be ggll which is double long google so google hit a great spot today i think that you had
a nice little double bottom at that 296 down there which could act as maybe some short-term support
and maybe we get uh both of those names maybe run back towards their nine period.
Google's is all the way up at 315.
And Amazon is all the way at 209.
So maybe we get a little bit of support in the tech names
and we see some of the other sectors sell off,
like I mentioned at the beginning.
So those are going to be my two picks
and see if we can get some bullish action on some of these MAG names for the rest at the beginning. So those are going to be my two picks and see if we can get some bullish action
on some of these MAG names for the rest of the week.
All right, there you go.
So Will taking 2xLeverage Amazon, AMZU,
and 2xLeverage Google, GGLL are the tickers.
Of course, I am tweeting this out.
So don't worry if you're following along in the audience
and you miss a letter or something like there. I will have a full tweet going out here in just a little bit
for all of these great picks and will back to back champion. That's pretty good. I mean,
Will's record of being on the show is not very deep. He just joined us a few weeks ago and he's
already got two championships. So doing a great job. He's severely under-followed, by the way.
Make sure you are following Will.
You see that account right there with a great smile.
Speaking of great smiles, let's go over to Nick Trindle.
Nick Trindle, which two picks are you looking at for this week?
First one, I will go with PL.
This one had a monster run end of last year and a pretty good run
to start this year. Now pulled back into the 50-day moving average. Usually like the first
test of the 50 and then a higher low test of the 50 are good risk reward spots. And we're right
there. Nice tight inside day to day. Last two days, extremely light volume. So this is one where
you're going to know if you're wrong, basically
right away. And those are the trades that I like. I am wrong all the time. So I want
to be wrong right away. And I want to be wrong for a small amount. And stocks pulling back
in their 50, building out a higher low there after a nice extension, that's usually a good
risk reward spot. So ASTS in that same group kind
of gapped down after an earnings or not an earnings, a offering, but they're not accelerating
lower. They kind of gapped down and started to trade tight. Rocket Lab, same idea, lost the 50,
but is trading tight under that level. So we'll go with PL on the long side. And I will also go with LABU on the long side too.
So looking at XBI, which is the underlying ETF for biotechs, where LABU is the triple
leverage biotech ETF.
XBI, you got the 5, the 10, the 20, the 50, all right on top of each other.
Really clean trend all of last year off that
the April lows now first time coming into that 50-day moving average not usually as correlated
to tech and the rest of the market so if we do get a another like leg lower in the Nasdaq maybe
it will hold up a little bit better probably Probably still would stop me out of the trade.
I don't have a position just yet,
but looking for a breakthrough today's high
and stop at today's low on that trade.
All right, Nick Drendel with two setups there.
PL, that's Planet Labs, long side.
And then LabU, which is basically your leveraged biotechs,
as you heard him described there.
LABU is the ticker to the long side for Nick Drendel.
Very interesting.
I like it.
Vegas, let's go over and get your two picks next, please.
All right.
So I'm going to be on the bull side on this one.
So I'm going to pick NVDX.
I'm really liking the way NVIDIA is trading today.
I'm liking the way it's holding support quite well here. So I'm going to pick NVDX for I'm really liking the way NVIDIA is trading today. I'm liking the way it's holding support
quite well here. So I'm going to pick NVDX for NVIDIA, and then I'm going to pick TSMX, TSM.
Now, TSM's chart is really nice. I mean, if you take a look at that chart, we had a beautiful
inside day on Friday, and it had a very strong close in this market today and it
held up very well so I'm gonna take TSM X as well so those are gonna be my two
little babies and we'll see how these little babies perform all right we'll
see we've got a couple bets here on tech to the upside with Vegas coming in.
NVDX, 2X leveraged NVIDIA on the long side.
And then Taiwan Semi, TSMX, the leveraged version to the long side as well.
I did notice that one today.
I was actually looking at it because, of course, the candle it had the other day was completely wild.
It pushed way down hard but got bought back up. But then the inside day you mentioned, and today just coming off the nine,
you know, gap down, push lower within an uptrend,
hit that daily nine EMA and a strong one there with TSM.
I actually noticed that one as well.
Very interesting.
All right, there you have it for I love stocks, NVDX, TSMX, both on the long side.
That leaves Jordan, which Jordan is glitching out.
So I'm not sure.
Evan walks in there and then all of a sudden Jordan glitches out.
So we all know who to blame.
It's definitely Evan's fault, not Jordan's fault.
Jordan's fantastic.
But Jordan texts me.
He's going to go with his bullish thesis.
He's taking long TQQQQ,
and then he's short SQQQ.
I don't know how many Qs I said the first time.
I always stumble on that one.
But TQQQ's long, SQQQ's short.
That is a double leveraged bet to the upside for Jordan.
And then that leaves me, my two picks for this week. I like Boeing, BA. I'm going to stick
with BA on the long side. Boeing, the chart still looks pretty good to me. It seems to not really
care what the market's selling off. It's still in this kind of high and tight consolidation,
pushed down into the EMAs today, got bought up again. It's kind of been stuck in this range,
consolidating a little bit.
If the entire market bounces, I think it helps Boeing.
If the entire market bounces and falls apart,
I still think Boeing's going to hang in there.
So I feel like it's maybe a little bit more of a comfort pick
because it's kind of doing its own thing.
So BA.
And then my second pick, I'm going to short Rivian.
It may be a little late to this one, obviously down a lot today,
but the gap up on some of the hype, I think Will actually got into this trade already,
but the gap up that you saw on Friday, you had the earnings get popped up. To me, Rivian,
sell the pops still is my thought. I was short this name back when it went into the 20s.
We're not quite back up there yet,
but we did get to the 50-day,
sell off pretty hard today after retesting it.
There's a big gap below us.
And if we do even get a few days recovery in the market,
I do think that if we come back in
maybe late this week into early next week,
I still think Rivian is probably going to be a leader
to the downside to go fill that gap back in.
Get back down there near the 200-day,
near the $15 mark,
where it just seems to want to hang out.
It seems to be the spot.
So Rivian, and I'm not against Rivian or anything,
I just think that it's a little bit ahead of itself still.
Even on this recent pop,
there was Tesla RoboTaxi or CyberCab coming off today.
I don't think that really affects Rivian that much,
to be honest.
I just think Rivian is still several years out
from making an actual profit.
So until then, it's kind of a short the pops on Rivian for me.
So those are the two picks that I'm going to go with.
BA to the long side, RIVN to the short side. All right,
there you have it. That is everyone's picks. That is stock picks for the week. And that is exactly
one hour on the show today. Very, very interesting time. I don't know just if you want a quick
mention, but there was, um, a little bit of news. Evan maybe should, should, should mention this,
but, uh, it looks like Sandisk SanDisk is offering some shares in the secondary
market. The stock is down to 579 post close. So it looks like they're going to offer some
common stock in SanDisk. So the memory names all trading a little bit lower after hours.
Interesting. Great call out on that news. I am traveling, so I'm up in Arkansas. I'm sitting at my family business office right now with two laptops in front of me. I don't here one hour ago or just under an hour ago, SNDK SanDisk with a secondary offering there.
Very interesting.
Could be a good thing.
You never know with the, with the memory, but definitely something to watch.
Appreciate you, Will.
Appreciate Nick Vegas hanging out with us.
Ariel stopping by earlier.
I know some of the others, uh, Sam, Ben, and some of the other normals on the show here,
uh, couldn't make it today because it's on a Tuesday.
But we wanted to go ahead and get the show in either way.
The show must go on.
And boy, I'm glad we did because there was some fantastic thoughts shared around the market and mentality, psychology, trading thoughts as well.
If you missed any of this conversation, like I said earlier, definitely check out the recording.
That will be available as soon as I
close out this space in just a moment.
Also, there's a tweet going out
with all of those picks. I'll send that
out here in just a second. I've got it all
pretty much typed out, ready to go. I'll send
that out here in just a second and
let us know who you think is going to win
this week. Which picks are your favorite?
Obviously, we have Planet Labs,
we have a Lab U, we have a short Broadcom, short Gold Miners. We picks are your favorite? Obviously, we have Planet Labs. We have a Lab U.
We have a short Broadcom, short Goldminers. We have, what else? Amazon and Google leveraged longs. We have NVIDIA and Taiwan Semi leveraged longs. We have Jordan just purely long Qs.
And then Evan, if for some reason you think BMNR is going up a lot, tell us that you think Evan's
pick is the best, I guess. We'll see. I don't know.
Maybe somebody agrees with that. Either way, thanks to everyone for joining today. Thanks to
the panel up here. Once again, you should go in and follow them. It will improve your experience
on this app. And if you missed any of the great thoughts, I mean, of all weeks to go back and
listen in to the show on the recording, I definitely would say, hey, this is one of them.
This has got to be one of the top ones
in a while that we've had
with some just absolute great mentality,
psychology, and just market awareness,
I think would be a good term
for some of the thoughts
that were shared there.
So big shout out to the panel.
Big shout out to all the people that tuned in.
So a lot of you see some familiar faces
down in the audience.
A lot of familiar faces down in the audience.
So great to see you guys down there. Thanks for tuning into the show. I'm going to close this up.
We'll be back to normal schedule next week on Monday, 5 p.m. Eastern. Stock picks for the week
right here on Wolf Financial. And as always, our pinned tweet has a schedule with all the
different content that we're doing. Also, you can check out our other channels, the Wolf Trading
Channel, the Wolf Bitcoin Channel. We have a Wolf Crypto Channel. We have several other things in the
Wolf family of networks, both on YouTube, here on X, on all these different spaces and stuff.
Make sure you check all of that out. We're giving you all kinds of live free content around stock
market trading, investing, finances, all the above. And we just appreciate you guys for tuning in,
making it possible.
And of course, the great panel of speakers
that you see come by.
That's what really makes all of our shows so great.
So big shout out to them.
Shout out to all of you guys.
Have a great rest of your Tuesday evening.
And we'll be back live tomorrow morning.
I guess the first thing we have on the schedule tomorrow
is live trading.
So we'll have a live stream going on on YouTube.
We'll have a live trading on X Spaces over on Wolf Trading.
There's Bitcoin Spaces going on.
There's some other great stuff all throughout the day.
Once again, that pinned tweet has all of the different items there
where you can go set your reminders, all of the above.
And with that, I'm closing it down.
Be on the lookout for this tweet I'm sending out here in the next 45 seconds.
With all those picks, let us know who you think is going to win this week.
And we will see you guys for this show next Monday evening at 5 p.m. Eastern.
Thanks, everyone.
Take care.
We'll see you next time. Thank you.
