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STOCK PICKS FOR THE WEEK!
Recorded: Sept. 2, 2025 Duration: 1:02:42Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up? What is up? What is up?
Happy Tuesday.
It's weird to say that on this space
because we are normally on Mondays, obviously.
Hope everyone had a great, long Labor Day weekend
with family, friends, closing out summer,
whatever you were doing. Hope it was enjoyable and welcome back. Market is back, of course, and a little bit of
a red day today, a little bit of a sell-off, some interesting things. So the 50-day moving average
on the NASDAQ for the first time since April 30th. So quite a bit of time since we've seen the 50-day moving average. We did
officially close the day down 0.84% on NASDAQ, 0.74% on SPY and the S&P right there around 0.7%
as well. IWM, a little bit of an outperformance, 0.54% we'll call it on the downside there, but
a little after hours pump with some rulings around Google,
which is up 8% here as I'm speaking to you live. And it'll be very interesting to see where picks
go. Are we buying the dip? Are we getting bullishness here? Are we still bearish? I think
it's going to be tricky, actually. So I'm very, very curious how these great stock pickers are going to approach this week.
And while we have one clear, clear cut winner, and then we have a very close finish on the second and third place, already sent it in the group chat to everyone, but want to call it out and recognize our performance from last week until today's close.
From last week until today's close, the market itself down 0.3% on the S&P and 0.74% on QQQ.
And we didn't beat the market this week.
We usually do.
We didn't beat it this week, but that's just fine.
Our cumulative return minus 1.5%, but not too bad.
We also had some really outperformers, notably so our current
champion. We'll come over to him in just a second, is Mr. Sam Solid with a 12.70% return.
He had 2X leverage BABX with a 20.11% return on BABX. He also had EDD short, which returned 5.3%.
So not only did he nail the best pick of the week on the long side,
he also had a very, very good short side there.
Second place goes to Michael Knauss.
Michael Knauss had a GLNG long that just underperformed slightly,
GLNG long that just underperformed slightly, but INFU long 7.19% return there from Michael
Knauss, 2.62% return.
And third place rounding out our podium is Mr. Chris Patel, Chris Patel, AMDL on the
short side, 7.6%.
So that's a leveraged AMD short. Well, it's long, but he shorted it. So 7.6%. So that's a leveraged AMD short.
Well, it's long, but he shorted it.
So 7.6% return.
He also had PLTZ that bounced a little bit today,
but still had a 2.53% return to get into that third spot.
Our top pick, obviously the BABX.
The second best pick, not on the podium, but close,
pick not on the podium but but close was mr nick drindle h-i-m-z was a short that he picked up
was Mr. Nick Drendel.
8.73 percent return so i want to highlight that one and then of course the other best picks i've
already highlighted on this space that's our results let me make sure i get everyone up here
on stage uh it looks like we're having some fun connection issues i see two people reconnecting
trying to connect all of the above and uh let's jump into it a little bit. Ben, your hand is up immediately. And
that usually means you have something good to tell me.
Yeah, well, before we get started, I know you'll want to go to the winner first or whatever.
I just wanted to give a quick update on the year-long picks and the second half picks.
There's been some crazy picks. You know, I was winning most of the year with ASTS and Root, but I got to acknowledge this. Robin Hood from, I guess, Gov, Wolf
Financial, up 170% year-to-date. He's now in the lead on the yearly picks. Nick Drendel with Roblox
up 122% on Roblox. So he's in third place on the year-long picks. And then Andrew Pristine Capital
jumped into first place on the second half of the year picks with MSOS up 114%,
tracking second place behind them with AIR up 68%
second half of the year.
So some real banger picks, and it's starting to become
a real competition both for the year-long
and the second half picks.
Yeah, absolutely.
We have no time constraint today either,
so feel free, everyone. i know it's a little
bit later than normal but feel free to take your time today we don't have anything off the back of
this uh but i do know some people have other schedules families all that great stuff so we'll
keep that in mind but yeah i've been you mentioned the year-long picks uh we're still outperforming
the market over there 15.7 percent from the group that picked back in January versus
basically a 9%, just over 9% return on SPY and a 10, just over 10% return on QQQ. So beating the
market there, second half, we were absolutely crushing it. We gave these picks back, I believe
it was July 7th, we gave these picks and yeah, you just gave a nice update there. But gosh, Andrew, that MSOS, absolutely crushing it here in the second half of the year.
As a unit, we are up 18.24% from July 7th, which the market itself is only up 3%.
Since then, tech is only up 2.5%.
So absolutely crushing it.
Great job across the team.
If anybody wants these numbers or anything, feel free.
I'll shoot you a DM with those.
And maybe we'll get these posted out with an update maybe in the next week or two.
We'll talk about some of that.
If you'd like, you can always share those links.
It's view only, so it's not going to impact anything.
Yeah, we could do that as well.
Great idea.
I appreciate it.
Ben might be my tech savvy person, the guy that coded all this stuff.
I love that. Absolutely.
I was going to go to Jordan cause I know Jordan had to run,
but it looks like he's spinning here.
I think he's getting his ears lowered a little bit over there.
So we'll see if we get some picks from him, but per standard here,
we like to kick it off with our current champion, Sam Solid, with the BABX pick.
Sam, let me come over to you.
Great job holding that number one spot this week.
And we'd love to hear your market sentiment thoughts here in the first half of the space.
I mean, I don't know what else there is to say as far as the market.
I mean, we're seeing some clear after hours action.
We Google up almost 8%. I think it was up almost 9% earlier. is to say as far as the market i mean we're seeing some clear after hours action with google up
almost eight percent i think it was up almost nine percent earlier this is a 2.5 trillion
company 2.56 to be specific it's up eight percent two point eight basically now yeah if you do the
math i i okay so even on a technical perspective you had the queues basically
close below the 20 ma for in quite some time it's been stick saving it for quite some time but
today you had it pretty much closed below actually no last friday it closed below so you're really
coming to today pretty bearish and then today in the morning everything looked terrible it looked
like the queues were going to close below the 50 in May, which like you said,
hasn't happened since the end of April.
And then you just get a random slew of buyers throughout the entire day, pretty consistent.
Since this morning, you had a lot of small cap, highly speculative companies like Open
Door, for example, was basically green most of the day.
It closed up 15% on a day.
That doesn't happen when it's a massive selling event.
So if today was a massive risk-on event, you would see Bitcoin sell off.
You would see tech sell off dramatically, which we actually did see.
You would see pretty much every single speck of the company get sold off dramatically.
The IDWM outperforms the other indices besides the Dow that it doesn't scream to me like there's something wrong like
look we all need to get out of our positions we all need to take time for cover for me personally
i wouldn't even do that either way but i mean baba was coming into earnings last week and that's why
i went long two times right so we had a pretty dramatic pullback before the earnings happened.
We went from like 125 to about sub 120 before the earnings.
And then, of course, it gapped up about 15% after the earnings.
So I got super lucky with that one.
Obviously, the timing would have mattered way more.
But at the same time, that was crazy.
And also, we saw PDD, not P. Diddy.
So we're not talking about the guys in Ford.
We're talking about P. DidDD, Pinduoduo.
That stock was actually down.
And I'm not going to really attribute that to being, oh, I'm such a great, short, tactical and everything.
No, that was actually my hedge against a Bob Long.
And surprisingly, those two worked out perfectly, in my opinion.
And I mean, I was long, Bob, on the long side with Leaps.
However, I did close them a little bit too early last week,
but, you know, was able to reap the benefits in this competition.
Bragging rights, definitely good, but I would have rather made money on it,
more money than I made on it.
But, you know, I'm not going to complain.
Still made some money on it.
As far as the market goes, I didn't sell anything today.
I didn't buy anything today either.
I was pretty strapped for cash because I've been adding very heavily to my toast position.
But as far as the macro growth sentiment goes, and just looking at what the price action is telling you, it doesn't seem like this is the kind of market where we're going to head for bear market lows.
Obviously, that could happen anytime soon, not looking at the after hours, man, it's just you see a lot of narrative left and right about August being one of the weakest months of the year.
August actually ended up being a green month.
And then you see today basically gapped down like 1.5% plus in the queues.
And then look when we closed.
We closed, you know, we still closed that 1% down, which is fine being weighed down by the mega traps.
But then now you're seeing the after hours moves basically bringing the queues down only
44 biffs.
I don't know how that can be perceived as bearish.
Maybe people can be really good with timing, get out here, whatever.
But at the same time, you're seeing very significant moving averages being recovered
in a crazy bull market.
It is not the market you want to short, in my opinion.
Reduce exposure if you need to, but it is not the market you want to short. I don't understand
why there'll be a motive to short over here. We've got zero confirmation that we're breaking
down yet. Maybe the 20MA last Friday being broken down in the Qs, but as far as SPY goes,
it closed just at the 20 MA.
And then after hours, we fully recovered it.
Still, I will still be careful here, though.
But at the same time, is this a reason?
There's no confirmation.
Otherwise, you're just taking a gamble from the short side.
You're fighting the trend.
I hate fighting the trend when it comes to any of these things.
But even from a long-term position, there was really nothing that I wanted to sell today. I think my
portfolio is pretty good built out. I have exposure to IREN. I have exposure to OpenDoor. I have
exposure to Tempest AI, much bigger size than those two. But besides that, speculative positions,
I keep very small in my portfolio. My long-term positions, no reason to sell anything.
Absolutely no reason to sell anything.
Oh, there you have it, Sam Solid, with a word of confidence,
vote of confidence for the market itself.
Watch me get my ass handed to me tomorrow.
Hey, it happens.
It always happens.
But I think the interesting piece here
is we visited the 50-day for the first time. How many just simplistic investors were waiting on
the NASDAQ to touch the 50-day to start dip buying again? I don't know. I feel like there's
probably quite a few. So definitely interesting to see how this plays out. Sam, I appreciate
your thoughts there to get us kicked off on this Tuesday evening. And let's go over to second place, who's not here, Michael.
Now it's not here.
So third place it is, Chris Patel.
What are your market sentiment thoughts with where we're at today?
Well, okay, so let's kind of talk about what I saw in the market today,
and then we can kind of transition over to Google
because I think that's an important topic that needs to be covered. What I saw today was just what retail is being
trained to do, buy the dip. All right. That's been the mantra that's worked well over the last
however many years. And I think anytime there is even a slight hint of a dip, retail has that
extra cash and dumps it into some of the more speculative names that have
a lot of hype.
You saw the entire market, especially on AI, take a little bit of a hit this week, primarily
because the expectations on NVIDIA were a little bit too aggressive.
I mean, at the end of the day, I mean, that's one of the reasons why I picked AMDL, which
was just the market got a little bit ahead of itself.
And because of that, NVIDIA couldn't live up to those expectations to the umpteenth degree that some people were asking for.
And what did that cause?
A lot of people to just, you know, reevaluate their AI CapEx, you know, growth rate, which is fine.
That's a normal part of a market cycle.
And that's healthy, right?
Do I think NVIDIA is going to sell less going forward? No, I think they're still going to sell
more chips, AI chips especially. But the rate at which that growth is happening is not going to be
as great as it was when the AI cycle got underway. So just keep that in mind. On one side, I also saw Palantir keeping up
with companies like Opendoor. And so when I see something like that, I ask myself like, okay,
is a company like Palantir an AI company or is it just retail mania that's fueling this company's
prospects considering what its valuation is and everything else? So right now, to me, what I see
is just a lot of retail is still loaded up with cash. They've got the money to keep speculating
on things. They're looking for 10x moves on a lot of companies and they're willing to gamble on that.
If that's how you invest, where you're more sentiment and momentum based, that's totally
fine. Go right ahead. That's your prerogative as
an investor, trader, however you want to classify yourself. Now, when you look at the opposite end
of that spectrum, you look at something like the healthcare stocks today, the managed healthcare,
which are clearly in value territory and defensive. They were, for the most part,
all green today, with the exception of Oscar, which does trade more a little bit of a meme-ish
kind of a flavor. But the rest were, you know, they're doing well today. So you can see that
the market is starting to kind of rotate a little bit into the more defensive sides.
And so it's not that people want to reduce 100% of their exposure to AI, but let's just say
smart money is saying, you know what, I think it's not a bad idea to kind of reposition a little bit into value.
Today's news on Google, in my opinion, was probably, you know, I've been holding Google
and especially Google calls and spreads for literally a year now.
And I've had my painful moments.
Like it was not easy dealing with this, especially when you see this company generating so much
free cash flow, so much operating income.
Their side hustles are generating excess income like there's no tomorrow.
So even if everyone's like, oh, well, Google search is dying, even though the numbers don't
necessarily show it, there are other business segments that are more than making up for
that ice cube that's melting at a very, very, very slow pace, right?
I don't see anyone not searching on Google for things that actually matter.
I mean, yeah, on the periphery, maybe they're losing market share on things like where to
find rubber dog shit.
But other than that, it's not going anywhere.
So yeah, do I think Google search is eventually going to be disrupted based on my own usage
patterns?
I do think that that's a possibility. You know, I'm using a lot more AI agents to do
searches and stuff like that. But it's things that I don't think are highly monetizable anyway.
So it's not something that like Google has to worry about. Now, on the other hand, Google is
being smart and that they're investing in a lot of AI infrastructure so that they can be a giant services provider.
They still have huge advertising arms.
They've got YouTube and YouTube Premium and YouTube TV.
Now they've got an entire arm with Waymo.
So I think this, believe it or not, is still a very, very good opportunity for someone to look into getting into Google.
opportunity for someone to look into getting into Google. I mean, when you look at Microsoft
as being a $4 trillion plus company, NVIDIA being a $4 trillion plus company, even though NVIDIA is
technically a cyclical business, Google is where people should be looking for a bigger allocation
at this point. And I think that even though right now we see an 8% move. I think it just goes higher from here. And I think it recaptures probably at least the 25, maybe even 28 forward PE, considering what their growth rate, how durable their growth rate is, the amount of share buybacks they're doing, how much efficiency they have versus in AI cost versus what NVIDIA sells to people.
All of those things combined, I think there is a huge moat around Google's business, and
it's not going anywhere.
And all the Sundar haters are like, he's not a wartime CEO.
He's a weak, but this is the guy that went around Eric, what's his name, who was the
CEO of Google during the 2000s, where Sundar said, look,
if we really want to get into this game, let's go into browsers. And Eric Schmidt said, no,
don't do browsers. This guy went around Eric Schmidt and built Chrome under him anyway.
It took a lot of courage to do that, which goes to show, in my opinion, Sundar's not
the type of guy that's not willing to fight for this company and constantly innovate. So I think
all the Sundar haters take a little bit of a seat. All the Google holders, shareholders, and
call holders, and spread holders, I think today's our day. When the market opens tomorrow, we'll celebrate collectively.
Boom.
There you have it.
A great breakdown.
Sam, did you have something to add on the Google?
I mean, you got to kiss the ring, man.
Bend the knee.
The country will treat you just right.
That's just what we've seen.
That is the pattern we've seen since day one when you stepped into office.
Bend the knee. You'll be treated right.
And, well, Sundar bent the knee.
I'm not going to criticize them.
I mean, every single freaking mega cap senior has done it.
So there you go.
You know, and that's just what you get. Also, I mean, I have to admit, I sold Google for Meta back in, I forgot when exactly it was,
but obviously Google is out for them.
But I'm cool with it.
I wasn't an entirely bearish Google, actually.
But this definitely taught me something,
especially when it comes to sentiment.
Sentiment got really bad just a couple months ago.
Really bad.
It was just outlandishly bad how sentiment got Google.
And I got to give Chris props.
I mean, he really stuck it through with UNH.
He stuck through with Google, the Carnival Cruise Lines.
Like they always like test that patience, but that conviction is really what stands out.
Yeah.
Let me tell you though, one of the things that about investing is when the herd is going in one direction, you really, really have to have some courage to stand up and go in the other
direction. But more so than that, find out what the fundamentals are. You know, if you don't have
a fundamental reason for being where you are, you can get knocked out of a position and be,
and me, I've made this mistake, me and Sam, we were heavy, long China last year. And we kind of
got out a little too early. You know, we listened to the market.
We were like, oh, well, you know what? It's China. Xi Jinping is going to, you know, make a couple of
tech CEOs disappear. And now when you look back, you're like, wait a second, why would he try to
slow down his own innovation growth engines? And the right move was staying long China through the
duration of all of this. So sometimes it's all about just blocking out the
noise that the market is throwing out there. Even the big heavyweights like Brad Gerzner,
he was like, Google is dead, it's gone, blah, blah. And these guys can call it wrong.
So like I said, develop your own thesis. When the herd is going in one direction,
have the courage to stand up and say, no, the opportunity is going in the other direction. And it can get rough. I'm not going to lie. Like shorting companies or that are
doing really well. And it's not, it's not easy. And I think one of the things is I was last week
when I looked at a lot of the picks, I was just like, man, like it just reconfirmed that I was
on the right side of the AMD and Nvidia short trade because I just saw so
many people going long all at the same time. Every YouTube channel that I turned into that does
financial coverage, everyone was like, oh, Nvidia is just going to crush it. Everything's going to
be great. We're all going to be in nirvana. And usually when you see too many people going ultra,
ultra long on something, you got to take that step and be like, okay, you know what?
Let's reevaluate this and just see what kind of expectations are being built
into the forecasting and whether or not in the short term,
there's a trade to be made on disappointment. And yeah, and it works out well.
It sounds like BMNR and the Ethereum thing going on right now.
Absolutely.
All right.
Great thoughts there from Chris and Sam.
Let's keep going around the panel here.
Andrew, would love to get your thoughts next on the current state of the market.
Hey, what's going on, man?
Congrats on your newborn.
It's amazing stuff.
Yeah, thank you.
I'm trying to get back to what I call a new routine wait congrats man we didn't know that what did you name them
uh it's it's a girl octavia isabella congratulations congratulations
congrats man well yeah moving on to the to the market and what we're seeing here this carnage
yeah what from my standpoint, the seasonality in
September is pretty much always poor. So we all know that as traders and investors, anyone can
look at this data and see there's over the last 25 years, there's a 52% win rate for the S&P 500
in September. But in that 48% of times when the market closes negative,
the market has seen some of its biggest monthly drawdowns. So it is always important to really
just temper expectations when you're coming into the month of September. And then on top of that,
we had a so-so NVIDIA earnings report that the market really did not respond all that well to.
We had that Alibaba innovation
where potentially there's now a worry
that perhaps China won't be so reliant on NVIDIA's chips.
And then you just have this seasonal factor
where things tend to get a little bit weak.
And then you also have this factor
where CTAs are actually at a max long allocation to equities.
And if you look at other gauges
like the Naeem Exposure Index,
you can also see a heavy exposure there as well. We are on year three of just a magnificent bull market. So yeah, things
are a little bit stretched to the upside. And today we started to see a little bit of downside.
So it is important if you're trading or investing to just have reasonable expectations.
And I would say nothing we've seen so far is out of the ordinary by any means. This stuff is just kind of a feature of
navigating the financial markets. In terms of just seeing further downside, further upside,
the S&P 500 did tag the 50-day simple moving average today, and it also tagged its monthly
value very low. And then we did start to see some buyers come off those lows. But with that said, for me as a swing and position trader,
if it's really day one of some big weakness and you see the VIX spiking, even if the market closes
off of its lows, that's not necessarily like the all clear signal, like just pile back in,
buy the dip even harder. It really requires a slow
and measured approach. And you really have to see how the rest of September unfolds.
So with that said, yeah, for me, I'm really just monitoring the market right now. I would say in
terms of navigating this, it depends on where you are in your portfolio. Progressive exposure is
always the answer. If you just added a bunch of exposure heading into September, and now you find yourself
where you're underwater on a lot of your positions, then it definitely makes a lot of sense.
You should be stopping out of your trades if things are just really quickly hitting
the stop, even if you think that the market's going to be heading higher.
But on the other hand, if you've been sitting in trades for quite a while, and you have
some nice cushion, and you're more taking the swing or position trading approach
you know then you can really stomach these uh these pullbacks a lot better so yeah it really
depends on where you are in your trading really the most important thing for anyone that's trading
is what are the positions in my portfolio doing and predicting and all that stuff that's really
just way
secondary. It's good to have a bias, but you don't really want to rely on it. You always want to rely
on what you see in the market. So for my pick for this week, I'm going to go with the same pick that
I've had maybe the last two or three months, which is that MSOS cannabis ETF. This is a prime example where the MSOS over the last, I think, two trading
sessions is down, I believe it's down over 10%, you know, pretty big, pretty big drawdown.
But with that said, if you take a look at a slightly longer term standpoint, maybe two,
three months, the thing has doubled off the lows already. And I do think that a rescheduling
announcement should be coming at some point
in the next month or so. So we'll see if that comes to fruition. I think if it does come to
fruition, that's where we could see much higher prices for those cannabis stocks. But yeah,
for my pick for this week, I'm going to go with the MSOS twice. Thanks so much for having me up.
Great to have you, Andrew. As always, MSOS, staying with the cannabis trade. I just want
to ask one follow-up question before we move on, Andrew. When it comes to this time of year,
the last several, last September, I was looking at some of the numbers here because you mentioned
the seasonality. Last September, we actually had a positive September by 1.85% of the month SPY, but all the four previous ones were negative. 5%, 9%, 4%,
and 4% going backwards the previous four years before that. Are you changing your portfolio
strategy at all? I mean, when it comes to trading and portfolio investing, I know people have
different thoughts there. I was just curious, going into September, do you trim up going into this month and maybe wait for some type of dip buy? What's
your approach there? Yeah, the approach is it always depends on how my existing positions are
performing. So this year I'm competing in the money manager division of the US Investing
Championship. And I've had this MSOS thesis that I've really been riding for this year.
Those positions, I really started getting heavy in those in around like the $2 to $3 range.
And that's when we started talking about it on these spaces.
So for me, given that I have a nice cushion on what I'm currently holding,
I'm making the conscious decision that, hey, if September ends up being a poor month,
I'm going to just accept the drawdown
in September. So it is really important in trading. When it comes to risk management,
when it comes to being more aggressive, there is no free lunch and none of us can see the future.
So in terms of do I cut risk really quickly because I think September might be ugly,
that's a decision you have to make. And then if you get
a September like we had last year with the markets up 2.1%, then you might be kicking yourself.
So a lot of it comes down to maybe having an expectation, hey, things could get a little bit
ugly here. Would I be okay holding a drawdown? Or if your trading isn't going so well, maybe this
year you're not doing so hot, that's where you might say,
hey, if I'm negative on the year coming into September,
listen, maybe I should just cut all my risk
because I don't really have much cushion to play with.
So yeah, it always depends on how you're doing.
Appreciate that extra insight there, Andrew.
And I'm so tempted to seeing some green day right now,
but I'm going to spare everyone's ears and just leave it where it is.
Summer has come and passed. That's all I'm going to say.
Ben, story trading. Let's go over to you next.
Yeah, Andrew, before you leave.
MSOS, I've been waiting years for this to, you know, inflect higher and have a 5-10 time move, something like that.
And kudos to you for being so consistently positioned in this and riding it up
because, you know, I played it a few times here the last couple months,
particularly also after the 200 DMA break, which is just an incredible since then.
However, I have not had a consistent position throughout this entire move.
And it's been interesting because I've been waiting for that, basically a smoking gun catalyst
to jump in in size. I make most of my money quickly reacting to inflection point catalysts.
That's what I do. I look at the news feed every day on stocks and sectors and companies I know well.
I wait for that inflection point catalyst, and I go in big and hard, you know, size as soon as that inflection point catalyst comes. And this has been really frustrating for me, Andrew, seeing MSOS grind higher without, like, a smoking gun.
I know there's speculation out there, but I'm wondering your thoughts on this, just this consistent grind higher is kind of pissing me off because I was hoping this thing
would stay, you know, stay a little bit lower. So when that catalyst comes,
you know, we could ride it for whatever, a hundred, 200, 300% gain over the ensuing weeks,
but that doesn't seem to be setting up now. Yeah, man, those are great points. And that's
one of the nuances of
trading that is so difficult like coming into the beginning of the year you might feel like
oh i'm so old on this one stock i think it's gonna be huge i think it's gonna go up a lot
but then you might feel like you know i'm gonna wait for the perfect moment to get in like i'm
gonna wait for a catalyst to hit you know know, some key technical level. And then before you know it, you might be trading other stuff.
And then all of a sudden you look on your screen and it's like, oh, shoot, this thing is up 1% already.
And then that's where, you know, I'm past I have because it did big labor.
And it's like, oh, man, we just wait for a pullback day.
And then before you know it, the thing's up like eight days in a row.
And suddenly it's like, man, I was really bullish on this thing.
I did all the work.
And, you know, this thing went without me.
And that's happened to me countless times in my training career.
So now it's just a huge point of emphasis for me where if there's a theme I really know a lot about
and I'm really passionate about, I want to do the research on it,
I'll forego a lot of those other opportunities and a lot of
those shiny objects and if the thing isn't going quite yet i'll still jump into it and i want to
at least have a position on in there because i never want to be that guy where it's like i totally
saw this coming and i didn't even do anything with it so yeah that's that's my take on that
andrew we've all been there man we've all been there, man.
We've all been there.
And it's funny because the play you make,
you're like, okay, this is going to be great.
And literally the next week, it drops like 20%.
And then you're like, what the hell did I just do?
And the entire time you're waiting for this thing to recover
and everyone's like, oh my God, I'm doing so well.
And it pisses you off.
You're like, and it really challenges your thesis, man.
It's happened to me a bunch of times,
but I guess this is the time
where you find friends like Sam
who reinforce your bias and make you buy more.
That's the way that I've been successful
at investing over the last few years.
So yeah.
Actually, I'm not gonna lie. when you kept saying you're buying more
unh i was like oh shoot this guy's gonna ask me if he could sleep on my couch and stuff i don't know
i don't know but i uncle chris is coming over yeah i i i didn't i you know i've seen chris do
this a lot where you know the convicted if there's anyone where I see where like they really stand by the conviction,
you know, it's definitely him and it paid off. I mean, you know,
usually things like he's got this crazy,
he's got this crazy suspicious thing where like whatever he buys,
like it just goes up the next day. This one, like I, I've never, it would,
it took, it took a lot of conviction for him to stick through that.
And I'm glad it's working out great for him.
Especially as his birthday is coming up.
If anyone hasn't been to Iceland, go to Iceland.
You will absolutely love it.
The views here are amazing.
I'm at the Airbnb right now.
Loving it.
Did you see Northern Lights?
Nah, it's been too cloudy.
But hopefully by the end of the week, I'll be able to see some.
I really thought you were going to say something about Icelandic cruise lines there.
But we'll avoid that one for now.
Hope you enjoy your time.
Ben, just wanted to check and see if you had any further thoughts to share there before we go over to Nick Drindal.
Yeah, I do a sentiment.
And I'm going to do a stock too too because I got to run to my family.
But man, I had this morning, I was really bearish.
And, you know, I talked to you about it at one o'clock and you got to consider the after
hours action in Google and Apple driving QQQ up QQQ six save there on the 50 DMA even before
this news spy back above the 20 DMA, I believe,
in after hour. Yep, above the 20 DMA. So pretty impressive comeback. I mean, Andrew touched on a
lot of points, which make me hesitate. We had a green market signal in our daily newsletter for
the entire month of August.
Nope, not the entire month. We actually caught the first two red days, August 1st and 2nd, went to yellow alert. And I went to yellow alert again on Friday, kept it at yellow alert today,
but now I got to consider what to do because the factors, I mean, Andrew mentioned a lot of them,
the CTA at max long. I don't think you mentioned like the also margin debt is like $1 trillion at a high.
In-line PC on Friday I thought would lead to a rally.
It didn't.
So that was concerning.
Ethereum dipping below the 20 BMA.
Last time it did that was the first two days of August.
Markets had a 4% drawdown in two days.
And then you have the seasonality to worry about.
So there were lots of reasons I went to Yellow Alert since Friday.
But what to make of this Google, Apple, driving up QQQ spy, I don't fully trust it.
I'm a little bit with Andrew here.
I'm just worried that maybe this is the month.
Maybe we don't have a big drawdown, but maybe we have a month of CHOP, you know, rather than August straight up.
So it doesn't really change too much my process, except I'm going to be more selective on stock pick.
So when we go yellow alert, it's really just about being more selective on the stock picker, trade catalyst, anticipate catalyst.
And basically the only difference between between a green market and a yellow
alert market is you've got to be more selective on the catalyst. Make sure those catalysts really
are inflection point catalysts, fundamental catalysts, and not something superficial,
which are great. When the market's on our green alert, you get these superficial catalysts and
you get risk assets going up 20%, 30%, 40 percent. We do that too, right? But in this
market, I'm looking for the best of the catalyst to go long. So two picks for next week.
First one I'm going to give you is American Eagle. They were put tomorrow after the close,
AEO. Now, I don't know if or to what extent I'm actually going to hold it for
the earnings report. I'm in it for the earnings anticipation run. You see the relative strength
today. I just really think a lot of people are going to want to be in this stock for earnings
because of the Sidney Sweeney catalyst. And there's probably a lot of anticipation out there that management will
give good guidance or at least comment on the first month of activity, foot traffic, sales,
something like that. And I bet there's a lot of people who believe that sales are up dramatically.
If it is or not, I have no idea, but I know that's what traders believe. And that's why I'm in it now
for an earnings anticipation run until about 3 50 p.m. tomorrow afternoon and depending
on how much I'm up by then I might take some into the earnings report so I'll
go with a EO for the week competition just in case they do I think there's a
chance there Sidney Sweeney is impacting sales positively. So I'll go with that for the competition. All right. Second pick, I think it's time I can let this cat out of the bag. I see
Ross listening here, but we've had a stock, our community has been accumulating since Friday,
Friday and today. Stock is Burner, B-Y-R-N. You'll see a lot of options activities Friday and today, and that's probably entirely myself
and my colleagues and my subscribers in our community.
I've done a lot of research on this, and basically I'm predicting we're going to get a significant
positive catalyst as early as tomorrow morning.
Might take till end of the week.
But Berna, their quarter just finished August 31st, and they pre-announce revenue every
single quarter within a few days after the quarter ended.
Last year for Labor Day weekend, they did it tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning.
They typically do it on the Thursday afterwards, but it might be as early as tomorrow morning. And based on two press releases they've
put out since last quarter ended, and also based on the comments in the conference call transcript
of last quarter earnings, I believe that they're going to pre-announce a record revenue quarter
significantly above analyst expectations. The stock has been beaten down to a pulp so it's
a great entry point here and i'm looking for a move to 24 now the danger of doing it for this
competition and is that they might pre-announce that um this data tomorrow morning before market
open we might get a gap up to like 24 and it feeds and i'll lose the competition all right so that's
just uh putting it out there but I'm ready at a max position.
It's one of my largest bets I've made all year is this burner.
I could be wrong.
So manage your risk and allocate wisely.
Sam, you have a question or comment on this one?
Yeah, I was wondering, what's a market cap in Burna?
For a 500 million.
Okay.
Because Axon is supposed to make an announcement on September 25th.
I don't know if it has to do with Berna or anything, but you already know Axon.
Axon, yes.
I own both Axon and Berna in my retirement account.
And I think it totally makes sense for Axon to buy Berna one day.
That's what I was thinking the catalyst might be when you say that's coming up.
Because I thought it was very interesting that axon said he like axon kid is burner international
burner technologies international i guess burner technologies inc burner technologies inc
that'd be interesting just saying but i own yeah i mean their sales their sales are exploding
from you know everything that they're saying.
You can look at – they sell a non-lethal gun, non-lethal handgun, rubber bullets, pepper spray stuff, and it's just like exploding on Amazon.
They have like this AI advertising thing that's exploding.
They got like all these – Tucker Carlson is a spokesperson and his causing sales to go up.
I mean, so there's a lot – I mean, their revenue has just been exploding
over the last five quarters.
So I have no reason to believe
that this quarter will be any different,
particularly with the two press releases
since their last conference call.
Boom, there you have it, Ben.
AEO, Sydney Sweeneyey who i saw her advertisements here in the mexican
mall the other day so that was interesting to see sydney sweeney's reach of international at
this point into another culture so uh aeo and reporting tomorrow and then byrn yes byrn make
sure i'm saying that correctly berna from from Ben over at StoryTrading.
Both on the long side there.
And just to emphasize the technicals here, I mean, any bit of good news, it's an easy shot to 24.
I mean, this thing is oversold, and it's back above the 20 DMA.
It had a bullish engulfing candle today.
You got a little bit of resistance at 22 22 and then that obvious target of $24
basically where the 50 and 200 DMA are right now.
Oh, there you have it.
A name that has been familiar both on our small cap show and the show from
Ben over at Story Trading.
Appreciate you with those two picks, AEO and BYRN.
I don't know why I keep wanting to say Berna or put an A in there, but either way, there's the two picks, AEO and BYRN. I don't know why I keep wanting to say Berna
or put an A in there, but either way,
there's the two picks.
We'll have a tweet out, of course, as always,
with all of these picks in them.
Jordan couldn't be here,
so let me go ahead and throw in.
He is Big Bad Bear Jordan right now,
getting his hair cut.
SQQQ long and TQQQ short.
I'm sure Sam could have guessed that.
And speaking of Sam, our current champion,
let's go and get your two picks for this current week.
Well, I'm going to have to do it. GitLab reports tomorrow. It's one of my larger positions.
I'm going to have to go along GitLab. Without a doubt, I'm going to have to go along GitLab.
Let's go. And being that there's a lot of sympathy play when it comes to git lab
um man i you know the second pick i'm not really sure what to do i know that there are a few
additional earnings this week um let's see i think fig reports tomorrow after close and seeing that there still is a lot of upward momentum in the market.
I am going to go long FIG as well.
I believe FIG is reporting.
Yep, FIG is reporting tomorrow.
I'm going to go long FIG as well.
There it is.
GitLab and Figma, GTLB and FIG.
And I just realized I made a grave error here.
Nick Drendel, my sincere apologies.
I did not get over to you for market sentiment yet.
That is totally on me.
And I'm getting back to it here.
But either way, Nick, I would love to get your market sentiment thoughts.
And then on the back end of that, if you want to go ahead and give your picks as well, let's go over to you.
Nick's going to give me the cold shoulder now, isn't he?
Yeah, he's mad at you.
I deserve it.
I really, I deserve it.
There's an unmute.
Oh, man.
Okay.
Something's wrong with my headphones because it keeps happening.
I'm not mad at you.
I was actually trying to say that I completely forgive you.
on your mind and much more important than what I have to say about the market.
You've got a lot on your mind and much more important than what I have to say about the market.
But overall, so last month, if you take a look at the NASDAQ and positioning up with
COT, commitment of traders data, everyone was long the NASDAQ, just extreme, extreme
readings on the NASDAQ.
And what happened?
It went nowhere.
It just had a lot of volatility to the downside,
to the upside, but basically finished flat. And coming into this week, the COT data,
which is collected as of Tuesday's close of the previous week, so just about a week delayed right
now, it's still the longest that they have been this entire run. So extreme crowding in the NASDAQ, NAIM active
investors exposure did tick down from 98 to 92, which is a little bit of an improvement. Usually
I use that 95% threshold to start to get worried. So we're below that, but it is not early in this run.
And then the other exposure that I was looking at is the Russell 2000. That was heavily, heavily shorted the last couple of weeks.
And that's why you saw the pair trade of long IWM versus short QQQ works so well because everyone was short IWM.
So if any potential good news came in about rate cuts, those names are going to fly higher.
And positioning was super heavy, the NASDAQ.
So any bad news, potentially, you would see money rotate out of that.
And that's what we have seen, but we still see just extreme long positioning in the NASDAQ.
Then the other thing that I want to cover is the three leaders of this market uptrend to me have been Robinhood, NVIDIA, and Palantir.
And all three of those are now right at their rising 50-day moving averages, which is kind of like a do or die spot for me mentally.
And then the NASDAQ touched in the 50-day as well today.
NASDAQ did the 50-day as well today.
So coming into the last couple of weeks, I was really focused outside of tech names and try to get positioned into China, which I've covered here a couple of times.
But the K-Web Chinese Internet ETF has had a three and a half year base.
We're working up the right side of that base. Things have gotten nice and tight. And then with
We're working up the right side of that base. Things have gotten nice and tight.
Baba's earnings last week, it looks like this is primed for some real rotation. And then the other
was biotech. LABU right now is my largest position. Started that on August 12th. So today was a great
day for the portfolio with a huge gap up in biotechs and really strong close
and with kind of the other healthcare names looking like they've bottomed as well it seems like this is another theme to really focus on for rotation as we see money kind of get overcrowded
in the nasdaq that's going to have to pour out into something else so biotech and China are the two themes that I'm really focused on
to the long side, along with home builders and kind of other rate sensitive themes. But
the two for me are biotech and China. And I think tomorrow we'll get really, really good feedback
on what we want to do with this market, given Google's gap up. So do we gap
up and then just fade off completely like we did with Microsoft's earnings? That was a massive gap
up on good news. And we sold off day one, we sold off day two, we had a little bounce back,
and then we've just sold off for multiple weeks now back under the 50-day moving average.
for multiple weeks now back under the 50-day moving average.
So we'll kind of know right away, hey, are we using this good news with Google
and all that liquidity that comes with that good news?
Are people going to use that to sell off and reduce their positioning in tech names?
Or are we just going to really accelerate higher at this point and kind of get a FOMO rally?
Because it's September, because we have other
themes emerging, because of positioning, my guess is we'll see more like distribution and
volatility out of the NASDAQ. But I don't feel bearish on the market overall. I think you just
have to be really specific on where you're putting your capital work and if it's like in extended names or in new emerging themes. Shout out to Andrew by the way who's gotten that
MSOS theme like on my radar. I finally did pick up some shares today on the shakeout of the gap zone
right at five dollars so hopefully we can get some good news in that. But that's also a theme that I think outside of people that tune into this stock pick selection,
I don't think a ton of people are really focused on that.
So overall, market looks really healthy.
The gap down that was bought today, that's still a good sign to me that there's still a risk appetite, but I think the risk appetite is going
to be in different groups for at least the next couple of weeks until that positioning rolls over.
Very interesting. Nick, do you want to go ahead and toss in a couple of your picks for the week?
Yeah. So we'll just go with LABU on the long side. It's like not in a technical buy point here, so it's just looking like it'll be trending. And then second one, let's see. Let's just go with FUTU, which had an awesome shakeout of the previous pullback low, the 20-day moving average, kind of a breakout retest today.
day moving average, kind of a breakout retest today, shook that area out and then closed right
at the high of the day. So kind of thinking, staying with those themes of China and biotech,
we'll go with those two. I was just about to say that LabU, L-A-B-U and F-U-T-U, FUTU.
And that's right on target with what you just gave to the China play and the biotech play.
It's very interesting. This rate, do you have a take around the rate scenario, Nick, where,
I mean, I see yields moving up today. I see the dollar moving up a little bit today. It could be
just a function of the market, but obviously XLE oil, very strong, kind of a breakout over in energy. And there's gold, obviously, all-time high.
Yeah, I feel like they are going to cut rates, and that's probably not the right move. But that's past my pay grade. I try to throw lines on the chart, find where I can have some good
risk-reward, and then roll the dice. But it definitely doesn't seem like we should be cutting
rates with inflation this high.
But again, I don't get paid to do that.
Thankfully, that's a really tough job.
Crazier things have happened.
I want to get involved in the rate play.
I'm just, I'm so skittish of like a sell the news type of thing
or like we saw last year around this time
where they finally cut the rates
and then we just, we saw mortgages go through the roof at that point and pretty big sell the news so
it'll be interesting to see that play out we do have a lot of data coming up this week including
the non-farm payroll job number on friday if that person still has a job i'm not sure
where we stand with that or where we stand with a lot of things at this point but
nick drindle appreciate you sorry i didn't get your market sentiment thoughts earlier but glad we got you in here and then your two picks l-a-b-u
and f-u-t-u chris patel two picks do you have for us this week sir so the first one i'm gonna go with
and this was actually inspired by uh the um i think uh it was nick who brought up MSOS, is actually to go ultra long on home building.
And that is NAIL.
The reasoning behind that is all the news around the Trump administration possibly declaring a housing emergency.
Now, in my opinion, the way to play this whole thing is, a lot of people think that housing is expensive
because interest rates are high. And I'm like, yeah, that's sort of a reason. But the reason
why housing prices are high is because one, there's a lack of supply in certain localities.
There are a lot of places in the country where building is very, is very restrictive. And I
think if the Trump administration really wants to push the issue,
they're going to do a lot of things to push. And a lot of these home builders are going to
benefit from having access to a lot of areas that there's a huge amount of demand, but not enough
local support to build housing. So I think the Trump administration, they want long-term
to get inflation down. They want younger people to
be able to afford homes. Now, what does that mean? That means that you need more homes. I think
Buffett realizes this and it has also been leaning into the home builders like Lenar and some of the
other ones. So definitely look at the 13F filings from Buffett. So I'd say right now is a good time
to be long housing construction, even though that
does seem a little bit counterintuitive, but housing construction is definitely more necessary
to society now than ever before. It seems like, just real fast on this point, it seems like
the wind is trying to whisper to us out of the White House right now that either was it stimulus or tax breaks or some type of something to get home building going.
Because as bad as he wants rates cuts, he wants housing, right?
He wants affordable housing.
I just feel like that's what's coming next.
Do you think so?
I think the entire generation of young people is screwed out of the housing market right now because one, they can't afford anything. And so one of the things about this administration is look, and I think Scott Bessent
has mentioned it multiple times, like Wall Street has had their turn. Now it's time for Main Street.
Dude, if you're a 25 year old to 35 year old and you are a first time home buyer, you can't afford
to get into a home right now. You know, like, what are you going to wait until all the boomers die
out to buy a home that's going to cost you $800,000 and a decent living area? No. Right now, we need more homes.
We need more building. And I think the Trump administration wants to cement their legacy.
And if this is one of those things that also helps lower inflation, because look,
shelter is a large component of inflation. So if you can get shelter prices down,
that's going to help tremendously. If you
look at cities like Austin, where they had giant building booms, rent prices are down,
home prices are down. I'm talking about double digits going down. That means that we need more
housing, put more housing on the market, you're going to stabilize inflation going forward.
And at the same time, you'll get the popular support among younger people that are going to
say, look, I can finally afford a home now because this administration is doing something about it.
So I think that more than just rate cuts, I think we need more inventory in the markets.
And if the Trump administration can deliver that over the next four years, you're going to see you're going to see another Republican president in four in three years from now.
in three years from now.
You know, so the setup here is clear to me
that housing is one of those hot button issues
that every young person between the ages of 25
and I would even say up to like 40
is dealing with right now.
So, you know, getting people into homes
is going to be a big deal
and that theme is not going anywhere.
So like I said, long, long, the home builders.
And the second pick, I know this is going to sound dumb, but short Microsoft. I think that there's going to be rotation a little bit out of Microsoft and into Google and Apple. So it's almost like an intro mega cap rotation. So I'll take a chance on going a little bit short on Microsoft. So I'll say that. Yeah.
hands-on of going a little bit short on Microsoft. So I'll say that. Yeah.
Oh, there you have it. Now NAIL on the long side and then short Microsoft from Mr. Chris Patel.
Nick Drendel, go ahead, jump in. Yeah, Chris, do you think one of the levers that Trump can pull
is to remove the tariffs on steel, wood, everything that's making the price of home construction go up?
I think it's more along the lines of trying to get localities to reduce down the amount of
complexities in terms of building. I think the thing is, a lot of those costs are marginal.
I mean, you're not, you're talking about like we survived lumber costs
being, I think twice as high as they are right now. I don't necessarily think it's just about
steel and wood and the cost of supplies that's going to help. I think there are certain areas
where the cost to build a home is just way too high. And there's enough regulatory red tape
around there because of a lot of NIMBY policies, like the not in my backyard policies, that causes these artificial markets to happen.
So I don't think this is a supply issue.
I mean, you go to some parts of Texas, you can buy a home, like a mega mansion for $500,000, right?
And then you go to like Long Island, New York, and you can barely find anything that's like less than $700,000, $800,000.
So I think this is more about a shortage.
Yes, the material costs are probably going to add to the cost a little bit.
But I don't think that that's the main driver of housing prices.
I think it's much more in line with the total amount of inventory that needs to come on to the market.
amount of inventory that needs to needs to come on to the market. And if right now we'd go through
this building boom, and I think if home prices, you know, kind of stabilize and you don't see
shelter going up, you know, 5% every year, and you get like a few years where, you know, home
prices are stable at, you know, let's say 1% inflation or zero, dude, affordability will
come back as incomes, incomes go up up and i think people will be able
to get into homes and and also there could be some legislation i doubt it um but you could also
see some restrictions on pe companies being able to buy up all these single family homes in in some
of the in some of the some areas where literally you're having neighborhoods being built out
specifically for the rental markets.
You do not want to raise an entire generation of people that have no opportunity to build equity through homeownership. That all they're going to do is they're lifelong renters.
That is not an economy that the Democrats want, nor is it an economy that the Republicans want.
And hopefully that's something that happens.
I mean, I'm not even talking about just investing for next week and a stock pick. I'm talking about
we need this as a country to have more homes so that all of us can, you know,
afford homes and all of us can build equity at some point.
Um, there you have it. Some great thoughts from the crew around home building i it just feels like
there's some type of stimulus some type of help coming for for home builders i think you're onto
something there i'm in that same camp so we'll see what happens um i did go ahead and send the
tweet out and i will announce my two picks here i I am going to take DK and G draft Kings football season starts this week.
I already started. If you're a college football fan,
just strength. I like the chart.
I think it's going into a very good period here.
And I think more and more people are going to be betting just,
I mean, draft Kings pen,
even Robin hood in these prediction markets.
I saw them going pretty crazy
with all the college football games.
And I think that's going to continue to ramp up.
So long DKNG, DraftKings.
And then my other pick,
oh, I typed it in the tweet wrong.
Let me edit that.
Is AVGX, AVGX, Avgo,
one of the strongest companies in the market. And when I look at,
it's still, to me, that's one of the market leaders. It's one of the top 10 holdings in the NASDAQ, and it has not reported earnings yet. It reports earnings on Thursday. So a little bit
of an earnings play. Did come off the 50-day moving average with a big buy today. Actually
found a way to come all the way back and basically get green today.
So we'll see where it opens tomorrow.
But I think we're I think we get a little run up into the earnings and hopefully some good numbers over there from AVGO.
So I'm going to take AVGX, the 2x leverage there around the at least the run up into the earnings.
And we'll see we get continued balance.
But to come off the 50-day and reclaim and close the day
right above the 21 EMA, I think,
is a very interesting look on a strong company going into earnings.
And that is pinned up top.
Go into that tweet.
Let us know who you think is going to win,
who you think has the best pick.
We've got all kinds of stuff across the board today,
so I'm very excited to see how this week goes.
Will Sydney Sweeney take the cake? Will Cannabis take the cake?
Do we have Biotech in China? Do we have GitLab and the IPO Figma?
Is Jordan's Big Bad Bear going to hit again this week?
We'll see what happens. Big shout out to the crew.
Make sure you're following everyone.
You see Sam, Chris, and Nick still hanging out with me up here on a Tuesday evening.
Appreciate you guys. And if you're in the audience and you missed a portion of this,
of course, it's always recorded. You can go back and listen to any portion of this space. A lot of great thoughts shared around Google early in the space, or excuse me,
frog in my throat, early in the space, some great thoughts
shared around Google, some really interesting thoughts all across the board, market sentiment
wise, all the way down to some home builder stuff there at the end, some China stuff mixed in there,
a little bit of everything for you guys. Appreciate everyone. I'm going to close this
out. It's been a long day of spaces here on Wolf Financial, a great day of spaces.
Great day, one of the best. And we'll be back first thing in the morning,
10 minutes before that opening bell over on Wolf Trading. You'll see us go live for the opening
bell and some live trading. We had some great conversations. Of course, the full schedule is
laid out right there on the pinned tweet on the Wolf Financial account. Thank you all. Have a
great rest of your Tuesday afternoon, evening, night, wherever you're at.
We appreciate you tuning in. Take care. Thank you.
