Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. All righty, welcome in everyone.
Happy Monday, March the 16th, 5 p.m. Eastern, 4 p.m. Central, 3 p.m. Mountain, 2 p.m. on
the West Coast, and wherever else you are, welcome in.
Thanks for joining Stock Picks for the Week, the show where we share
market thoughts, market sentiment, where people are finding opportunities, overall thoughts,
all that good stuff in the first half of the show. And then, of course, the fun part of the show
is where we each pick two tickers from tomorrow's open until the following Monday's close.
Those two tickers can be pretty much anything.
And we see who can have the best return.
We had one person absolutely crushed it, and he's not quite here yet.
I'm going to see if he joins.
We'll go back through that whenever he gets here, either way.
But one picker last week absolutely crushed it.
He might be the only one.
I'm looking through the list again.
He is the only one that had two green picks last week.
We had a bunch of, you know, one green, one red, kind of offsetting type of picks. But I do see one person that had all green and a 22.48% return.
Nick Drendel is the current champion.
22.48% is his average return between the two picks.
I'm sure a lot of you had that pulled up this morning
and were watching that chart just fly.
And his other pick was Drip, D-R-I-P, to the short side.
I should be more specific on that for the, what's that?
The Daily Bear oil pick there.
So Drip, short, and MBIS, long.
Nick Drendel, our current champion.
Second place, also hasn't made it up here to the stage just yet,
but Vegas, second place, 8.26% return for Vegas this last week.
return for Vegas this last week. Vegas had TSLL, which was red slightly, but she had CRCA,
CRCA with a 20.08% return on that pick. That's Circle, ProShares Ultra Circle, CRCL,
ProShares Ultra Circle CRCL leveraged on the long side 20% return on that giving her that 8.26% average and third place is Mr. Sam Solid Sam Solid.
Marvell or MVLL was his other pick, was slightly red, but still gave him an average of 2.29%.
So there's your top three.
Nick Trindle first, Vegas second, Sam Solid three.
Market itself was down 1.25%, we'll call it the average between SPY and QQQ, 1.25% down.
As a unit, all of us that made picks, we beat the market 1.83%.
So great job to the crew up here beating the market. I will say I was in fourth place. I was
basically break even. I had Dell go up 7%, AMDG go down about just over 7%. So that's always fun
when you watch that happen. And boy, what a wild market
it's been back and forth, back and forth. Are we ever going to break down? Are we ever going to
reclaim and move up? Who knows? That's what you guys are here for, to give thoughts. And the
answer has been wait and see, I think, across the board for the last few weeks. And if you've been
following along with that, just before I get over to the panel here,
if you've been following along with what the panel up here has been saying,
hey, take your shots on this, take your shot on that,
wait and see, keep it tight.
That's been the, I mean, the last six weeks or so.
That's been the thought process.
And we haven't gone anywhere since then.
Honestly, you look at the last six weeks.
Basically, I mean, it's up and down, big ranges,
but we're right in the middle of the same spot.
underneath all the other major moving averages.
When I look at the SPY, when I look at the QQQ.
And with that, that's enough of me introing everyone here.
I'm excited to jump into it.
Nick Trindle up here on stage, our current champion.
Nick, you absolutely crushed it.
know if you heard all the stuff I was saying because you were joining as I was calling it out,
but 22.48% return. You had two of the top three picks of the week as well. MBIS with that huge
news that came out. Sometimes it's nice when you see a chart that's just set up beautifully and
then the catalyst comes in with it. That's just like the dream scenario for a trade. And then obviously drip short that you gracefully explained last week,
the thinking behind that, both great picks there. Nick Drendel, we'll go over to you first. Any
comments on that, of course. And I'm curious to hear your market sentiment thoughts here.
Yeah. So with NBIS, sometimes it pays to be lucky rather than good. This was a trade that I
actually put on on Tuesday on the 10th. And then I went out and played basketball because the market
was being just super choppy. And I was like, all right, when I get back, I'll like close any
positions that don't have any profit. And N NBIS actually closed slightly below my entry point.
So if I was at the desk, I would have closed it on that day. But by the time I came back
from basketball, it was up 2%. So I was like, all right, I'll let this go. It's only a 5%
position. And I mean, that's pure luck for you. Really nice move the last four days out of that. But now NBIS really, really looks like
a potential leader. And a lot of people... When you're a newer trader, you see the stocks
that made the biggest moves in the previous cycle, and then you fall in love with those
But what you'll notice if you go through price cycle, price cycle, price cycle is very rarely do the growth
stocks that led off the lows of the last cycle lead the next cycle.
So NBIS had its time in the sun last time.
It's not just like a random stock that's moving up the right side of the base.
But it really hasn't had like multiple cycles to like emerge and lead then just kind of like go along with
So I'm really focused on some of these like newer type names with the NASDAQ continuing
to chop because like you said, I'm sure there's going to be people with strong opinions, whether
we're going to break to the upside or the downside.
I am not in either of those camps right now.
the new merchandise in the market, the newer stocks like a Circle, like an NBIS, what are
some other ones that we've been watching? An SEI, AMPX, those types of names, Fastly.
Because the next time we do get into an upcycle, it's most likely going to be led by either a new theme or new merchandise.
So during all this chop, your entry tactics, we've talked about this before, has to change.
If you're under the 50-day, you're under the 20-day, then buying breakouts and buying strength very, very rarely work unless you're like in the right name, in the right theme,
even then probably lower probability it like with those entries.
Undercut and reclaims of either support gaps, key moving averages, previous lows, view app
recapture, something like that is really the only way that I've been playing stuff on the
long side because I want to keep my risk very, very minimal.
And if we're in a choppy market and we expect volatility to come back in the opposite direction,
well you want to use that volatility that takes out all the stops to use as an entry
tactic to get long and then your risk is very minimal.
Then on the flip side, if you're trying to short weaker themes or themes that have already
made their moves and are starting to break down, well you want to use an uppercut in
failure as your entry tactic to short against either key moving averages, round numbers,
previous highs, or resistance gaps. And it's not a super fun market to play in because position
sizing, you just can't get super heavy into anything. There's very little follow through.
This NBIS is like the first time that I've had multiple
days of follow through on anything to the long side.
So hopefully that is kind of a little character change in the market.
But I still think it's a market that you just have to size down, you have to survive.
We're doing our best job identifying the new leader, new leading stocks, and just being
patient positioning NAIM, which I look at
every single week, that is finally coming down. It went from 79.3% to 67%, which is the lowest
reading since May of last year, which is, again, it kind of sets up the table for the market to be
good. But the positioning being light itself
is not bullish because light positioning means less liquidity, means wider ranges,
which also means wider ranges of your emotions if you're trying to buy on strength or short on
weakness. So while we're starting to see positioning come down, some crops of new leading stocks work our way up.
We're not in the all clear portion of the market or we haven't had a follow through day.
So it's not like time to just go all in on this market and try to hold for bigger moves.
I just testing the waters with some things, getting stopped out of a bunch in both directions and waiting for the really
Yeah, I hear you on a lot of those pieces there. It's just the market above the 200
day under everything else. There's nothing that like proves to me that the market wants to
break down. And there's nothing that really convinces me it wants to go right back up either.
So I'm just trying to find these opportunities, which you did a fantastic job of lining those
out. I like what you said there as well of, Hey, I went to, uh, the other, just the other day,
I wouldn't play basketball instead. It feels like this is the type of market where you can walk away for a day, two days, and not miss anything.
Like, this market, if you're a swing trader, this is the market where you watch the first hour or two of the day,
and then you go exercise, and then you go back and study the previous market leaders in 2021 and 2023, 24, 25.
You improve your trading journal using AI.
Like there's so much more opportunities to improve yourself as a trader than actually trading this tape. And if you're not taking advantage of that as like a newer trader or
someone that like this market environment does not fit your trading style, then that's just a
wasted opportunity. Definitely seems like it.
is there anything on your radar
before I continue on the panel
that resets things or moves things out of here?
Or, I mean, are we waiting for the next earnings season?
Do you think maybe some kind of resolution
in the Middle East or escalation?
I guess I should give either side of the story.
I'm just curious if there's anything that you're looking forward to,
obviously FOMC on Wednesday of this week, which in my opinion,
is probably one of the least volatile sounding ones just on the surface.
I'm curious your thoughts, if that has any effect on it,
obviously we've got the big quarterly expirations on Friday for the options market and everything there.
What do you think maybe moves us out of here?
Or are you just, hey, I'm fine being here range bound until we get out and are proven different?
Well, I don't want to be range bound forever.
I made a joke that all swing traders died on October 10th and we've just been in purgatory
That's really how this market has felt.
I don't know what's going to cause us to get out of this range, but what I'm looking for
is unfilled gaps to the upside if we're going to start to trend higher.
If you take a look at previous market corrections, almost every single one of them ends with
an unfilled gap up through the 10 and the 20 day
EMAs. And if you look back at like 2023's correction, where we had three waves down,
we actually have five unfilled gaps out of the first like 12 days in that move. You look at
when we got off of the bear market lows from last year, what did we do? We built out a higher low,
gapped up through those key moving averages. So I think
the market is kind of set. We do have leading stocks. Maybe data centers are going to be a
theme that's going to pull us higher. But now we need to see those unfilled gap ups that people
are afraid to chase. So when everything does look even better, they're going to be chasing at higher
prices, bringing in more buying support to push the market even higher. But until we get that like gap up through the 20 day EMA or like,
if we gapped through on the NASDAQ through to what is that Tuesday, Wednesday? Yeah, Wednesday's
closed. I think that's going to be a innocent until proven guilty move in the market for me.
But again, everything I trade, I trade with stops, position sizings, still not crazy high.
But that is what we've seen coming out of every single correction is unfilled gaps to the upside that makes people chase.
gaps to the upside that makes people chase. Yeah, swing traders went to die in October.
I feel like maybe some still continued to try into November. I feel like maybe there were some
pockets of the market that were still working. But yeah, definitely since then, it's just been
tough sledding. And I trade futures day in and day out, you know, smaller moves.
And I love to have swing trades on that I can kind of just check in on every few days and kind of get out of mind, out of sight.
And I haven't even been able to comfortably do any of that, which the difference is in the past I would have tried anyway.
is in the past, I would have tried anyway. So I have to say at least there's some growth there,
and especially learning from guys like yourself and the other great panelists up here that,
you know, kind of keep things straight, keep us grounded around different things. Nick,
appreciate your thoughts. We'll come back around and get your two picks. Fantastic job. 22,
and we'll call it 22.5% return in just the past week in a sideways market, a market that was down one and
a quarter percent. So fantastic job from Nick. Actually, Nick, last thing, if I still have you.
Yep. I mentioned this earlier. When you see a chart set up, in my opinion, the chart wants to
go somewhere, but it's the catalyst or the news or something that takes you there.
Something gives it the juice.
Is that what you kind of see in this MBIS?
Like, hey, this chart's just set up beautifully.
It looks like it wants to go higher.
And then, of course, you get that juice catalyst with the meta headline.
Is that your general thought there?
Is that your general thought there?
Or do you think sometimes you just get lucky?
Or do you think sometimes you just get lucky?
Well, luck definitely plays a huge role in individual trades.
Like over 10,000 trades, it probably evens out.
But individual trades, if anyone says they're not lucky, I kind of think they're lying.
But what I look for is a stock that has made like the ability to make clean moves before.
So NBIS already ran 500%. So it has the
ability to make those outsized moves. And then after that big move, it didn't really collapse.
It just went sideways for multiple months. We had one close under the 200 day followed by an
unfilled gap up. I love, love when stocks do that. Ugly close gap up. And then we had another gap up on the right side on March
4th, we pulled back closed well on the 9th. And then you had the 5 to 10 to 20, 50 all
on top of each other. So you have this volatility contraction, and then you're going to get
expansion in one direction or the other. And when you do have a news catalyst like that,
and we close so well, and show relative strength again on a Friday,
it just to me shows that this might be a true leader if this market is able to stay afloat.
So I'd rather stop myself out of other trades that aren't making big moves like this and
just take them for breakeven or small losses and try to stick with what could be the next
Then just cashing this for like a 25% or 30% move.
You got to be a little bit more patient, I think.
And it's hard to be patient in the current tape for sure.
Nick, I appreciate you jumping back in and sharing some thoughts around that.
Let's move around to the rest of the panel here. Second place just joined us up here.
One is the at on that account right there.
Vegas, CRCA, 20% return on that.
Gave you an eight and a quarter percent average there.
Great bounce in the crypto side of things.
Curious your thoughts on the market.
And if you're seeing anything out there,
obviously I know you're watching Jensen and his wonderful lizard leather jacket
at GTC this afternoon, as a lot of us were.
What's going on in your world, Vegas?
Do we have vegas up here i don't see an unmute from vegas vegas may have stepped away for just a second we'll uh
we'll see if we can get her reconnected in the meantime we will uh we'll just continue around
the panel here we'll come back to Vegas, second place finisher.
Third place was Sam Solid.
He is, I think, on a live stream or something right now.
He was having some technical stuff going on earlier.
We'll just keep going around the panel here.
Will's the next person I see.
So we'll go over to Will next.
What thoughts do you have for the market here?
Yeah, I mean, I think you put it uh just perfectly in the fact that um you know we've been in this choppy
range and and it's been very two-sided especially in the nasdaq i would say the nasdaq probably has
the more relative strength than the s p which i think is broken down a little bit more
which I think is broken down a little bit more.
a market where I think that you need to find your spots.
boy Jordan I'm 0 for 2 right now
Will let's go ahead and finish your
thoughts since you got started there and then we'll go to Vegas
next Vegas glad you got connected there Will go ahead and finish your your thoughts since you got started there and then we'll go to vegas next vegas glad you got connected there we'll go ahead finish your thought
yeah just yeah just big picture is like i think you need to you know watch kind of watch um
your levels and i think until we get a breakdown you know again i think for the queues just
big picture below you know call it 592 590 area i think we're still in this range with a potential breakout to the upside if
we get back over probably the 610 area if we can do that if we can't then it's back to the downside
but uh the the smp is definitely on the weaker side below 6800 and you have the 200 which we
have not hit on the rth session in spx so i'd look for that level and then look for 65, 21 if we do get some additional weakness.
But still a lot of the big picture, you know, big names are to the weaker side and under
And until that changes, I think this is a good time where you can deploy some great
after strategies such as put in call spreads or iron condors.
When the VIX is high and implied volatility is high,
it's a great way to take advantage of collecting premium in a high IV market.
And the other thing I just noticed,
I think that the big thing besides the war is credit spreads.
And I do see that high yield credit spreads are breaking out
to like three or four month highs now.
So I just think that's something else we
got to continue to keep an eye on because I think as those go higher or private equity continues to
go lower, that can be a headwind for the market. So even if the war front starts to resolve itself,
we get some headlines that are positive. Sure, we could get a pop, but I would watch those private
equity names and I would watch credit spreads to see
if those firm up and look like they will take us back to the upside because if they don't confirm
the S&P going higher, I would say that I would just be a little bit more cautious
until that happens. So I think that's kind of where we're at and oil, hopefully the highs are
in and hopefully we don't see yields going higher either because yields did tick up quite a bit last week uh to to basically uh highs of the year so
those are two headwinds uh credit and yields and then obviously oil so i think from there
trade them light stay small size don't over trade you know i love i love what nick was saying about
going out shoot some hoops,
kind of gather thoughts and maybe just do less right now. And just keep stuff on your watch
list, do your homework and look for stocks to come into key levels that you like to buy.
Sell some premium and shoot some hoops. Sounds like a great attack for this current market here.
I mentioned a couple of headwinds there and tell wins.
Maybe tech holding in a little bit stronger while the other ones have caught up to the move downside?
Yeah, I think the tech holding in here is a good thing.
Small caps have obviously come in here.
Just looking across the sectors, I think the energy trade at least being long XLE, maybe people will start to rotate out of that if the war does calm down and maybe it does flow back into tech.
You know, the memory names like Sandus, they had a big day-to-day micron.
Some of these other names look good.
So maybe we get that rotation back into tech.
That would definitely be a tailwind for the market.
And if we get these yields to come down a little bit, where oil's maybe not going to run to 150
and maybe it settles in in the 80s or something like that, where we
get interest rates across the curve to soften up a little bit,
I think that would put some money back into technology.
And I think that would be a good place to be. So tech could lead us out of this, to your
And if we get some of those things to calm down,
tech will probably be the first one to pop up.
You know, software's kind of bounced a little bit.
Some of the other, obviously, bigger tech names are trying to hold in.
And the NASDAQ itself holding in while the other ones have been a little bit weaker,
just relatively, if you look at the two charts side by side. Great thoughts there, Will. Let's go back over to Vegas. I think we got her connected there. Finally, Vegas. Mike, check
there she is. Yes, Vegas. How's it going? Congrats. Second place. Well done.
Nick Drindle had a 22.5% week.
Oh, I love the next. Nick has a great pick. Congrats, Nick.
I had a great week. I'm happy with second place.
I mean, first is always better, but I'm quite pleased with my picks this past week.
Did great on them. So you want to know my thoughts on the market, right?
Where are you finding opportunity here?
Overall market still stuck here.
But some bright signs here and there, I guess.
You know what? I found today that the market did rebound pretty strong.
Kind of snapping up a multi-week losing streak.
I felt like the major indices did post solid gains, driven really by the pullback in the oil,
which obviously had spiked because of all those geopolitical tensions in Iran.
And we had some good sentiments today with NVIDIA's GTC conference,
where Jensen highlighted a massive future AI chip demand potentially reaching $1 trillion by 2027.
So I thought that the Dow Jones did well.
I thought the S&P closed well.
I think today was the best single day gain in five weeks on the S&P.
And the NASDAQ, you know, really leading the pack today in some strength in tech.
One thing to watch, obviously, with the VIX did drop about
13.5% today around 23 to 23.51, kind of, I think, reducing some market anxiety. And oil did pull
back below 95. But, you know, I'm still watching this $100 level because, you know, if it does
break, you know, at any time, then, you know, you can expect the market to go down.
So my line in the stands is $100.
And, you know, I'm monitoring it constantly because as far as starting it take off, I'll be closing down some trades.
So because that market will definitely pull back.
I think the rally today came kind of easing some fears today.
And I think that, you know,
you know, the market can still shift quite quickly
with this geopolitical development.
So just to keep an open mind,
but do not get too bearish.
I think too many people getting too bearish.
Even Goldman Sachs put an article that they think it's a bearish. I think too many people getting too bearish. Even Goldman Sachs put an article
that they think it's a bear market. And to me, that's a lot of noise. I think we still got to
let price action dictate what you're doing. Because if you start reading everything and
believing everything, you're going to close on trades that you're reading about or hearing about.
I think the price action should really be the gauge
and make your decisions off that.
So that's how I like to trade.
So I look forward to the rest of the week
and I'm looking forward to some potential action.
I mean, we saw the pop on NVIDIA
and then it pulled back up for close.
It was quite a bit of selling late in the day.
So I'll see how it stands tomorrow
But quite pleased with the results this week.
It was fun watching Jensen up there.
Seeing all the different stuff.
Now, 90% of what he says goes over my head
if we're being 100% honest,
but it's still really cool to follow along.
And the one big thing he did mention
was he expected, what, a trillion dollars
Did you get a chance to watch it, Vegas?
I watched the whole thing.
A lot of stuff he was saying was like over my head
because I'm like, oh, God, so much tech talk, you know?
But definitely, like, he did try to explain it.
I think in his, you know, he was talking to a lot of, you know, tech people in the audience,
So they totally get his world and he gets theirs.
So I think, you know, going forward, I mean, to me, to this day, it's my top holdings. It's my heaviest, heaviest position in terms of commons.
And I'm not selling one share.
And it's an investment for the next five years.
And I'm looking to double it over that time.
And I'll just sit and wait.
I mean, I'm not going to care if NVIDIA pulls back $10, $20.
opportunity for me so i'm just gonna let it play out and i'm a decent average on this but i'm at
69 so i'm quite happy with my entry and just gonna let it play out i mean i'm gonna i'm waiting for
it to eventually get over $200 and it will.
It's just going to take time, but that's when investments take time and my timeframes two to five years. And so, um, you know, I'm just going to be patient about it and wait for the, you know,
the stuff to eventually grow and, you know, I don't have to do any babysitting with the stock.
I mean, you can sleep at night with NVIDIA, no problem. You don't have to do any babysitting with the stock i mean you can sleep at night with nvidia no problem you don't have to be worried about you know losing all this money
like some other companies out there so much cash flow so much growth and that's why i like the
stock because it's a growth stock so you want to be in a company that's growing and after hearing
today potential of one trillion trillion by 2027,
there's no way the stock's going to stay down here by then.
So, you know, when I'm talking like even a year from now,
the stock could do quite, quite well.
And the money's made waiting, as they say.
So I'll double what I have.
I'm confident about that.
And I'll just sit pretty and wait to print. That's all. Sit pretty and wait to print is my favorite quote of the day
at this point. I think I'm going to steal that one from you, Vegas. I appreciate the thoughts
there from second place. I love stocks one, that CRCA pick 20% return, the leveraged circle to the upside there.
Like I said earlier, Sam Solid wasn't here.
For third place, we got Will's thoughts.
Let's go to Chris, and then we'll go to Ariel.
Chris, any thoughts, anything that's been said so far
that maybe triggers thoughts in your head?
Maybe you agree with them, maybe disagree,
or anything new to add to the mix today?
No, just the whole comments around private equity, private credit.
I think we're getting to the point where people have started to really sell off
even quality private equity firms.
And I think there could be some opportunities if you're looking to bottom fish right now.
But once again, you have to be
very small in your entries and just understand what you're getting yourself into. I think the
entire sector has been painted with a broad brush and people are like, oh, well, private equity,
they invested in a lot of these software companies that are disrupted by AI. And that means that
everyone who has any exposure to software in
general needs to be sold off immediately because now you're going to have losses on the balance
sheet because a lot of these software companies are going to be invalidated within the next 12
months. And people are just panic selling a lot of this stuff. Now, of course, with private equity,
you got a little bit of a challenge in terms of liquidity where if you have a BDC that people are invested into and now all of a sudden
you get a run on you, now you're trying to sell assets and typically you have to sell them at a
discount. And even if the businesses are doing well and putting in decent cash flows and they're
able to service their debt, because from what I can tell,
majority of the software companies
that these guys have invested into
are still paying their creditors just fine.
It's just a matter of perception.
So that perception gap is, in my opinion,
an opportunity if you're willing to stomach
a little bit of that pain right now. This was a very
similar thing that happened during the regional bank crisis about a few years ago, where people
were looking at FRC and Silicon Valley Bank, like First Republican Silicon Bank, and saying,
oh my God, this is it. Regional banks are all done. They'll never come back. And then you get
yourself like 12 to 24 months and everyone
is kind of starting to recover because people understand that the business model isn't broken.
Yes, were there some regional banks that took on too many illiquid assets with their depositors
capital? And then when their depositors demanded that money back, they had to liquidate at
pretty much insolvent levels.
Yeah, there's probably some impact to that. But I think the private equity guys are a lot less
exposed, especially if you're willing to do the research on which ones to look at. And if you
have the patience, you have the time, if you're willing to stomach the pain, a couple of years
from now, you'll be looking at a healthy return. I mean, I look at, and one of the things that I just tell people,
when it comes to private equity, companies like, let's say, Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, TPG,
don't look at the PE ratios. The PE ratios are not going to tell you what you need to know.
Trying to value a private equity company using PE.E. is a fool's errands.
And I posted something and people were like, oh, well, look at the P.E. is super high.
Like that's not high. And I'm like, no, just they have their business model revolves around a different metric,
which is a much more accurate way on how to how to how to how to value them.
And that's usually distributable cash flow.
So a lot of these private equity and private credit firms,
they still have, you know, they're trading at multi,
well, not multi-decade, but pretty much decade lows.
They have a ton of AUM under their balance sheets.
And depending on which one, if you're looking at,
some of them have a lot of dry powder on the side that's just waiting to pick things up on the cheap. So I think private equity,
private credit has been strong performers. They have been wrecked in the past, in which case
they've recovered. And I think sometimes when people see the whole nature of gating when it
comes to redemptions, people automatically assume the worst and they try to sell off the entire sector.
Usually when you have these massive sector rotations,
you typically have a lot of opportunities to buy in something that could compound at a nice pace
and recover nicely over the next few years.
So like I said, for private credit, private equity, you have to be very specific.
You have to find the ones that have management teams that are forward-looking, that understand
how to raise capital in bad times, that know how to have those client relationships that
go back into the decades with institutions and sovereign wealth funds that are more permanent capital,
insurance companies that are more permanent capital, that are not just going to hit you
with redemptions. There could be something to be said about software multiples finally starting to
come down where things are being valued a little bit more accurately. I do think that some of the
SaaS apocalypse narratives are starting to break.
Unfortunately, Adobe was one of my picks last week.
And while they did have a good earnings and a strong earnings with their record revenues, record free cash flows,
they also had a point where they changed,
they left some uncertainty into the mix
by basically announcing that their CEO was transitioning into a role of
just as a chairman of the board and that they would do a search for a new CEO. And a lot of
people, they see that, oh, this guy's been around 18 years. Why did he just all of a sudden leave?
And I'm like, well, he's 62. He's been with the company 30 years. The guy needs to retire at some
point. But the challenge is when you've had this level of consistency for a long time, people
look at this and they automatically assume the worst.
Adobe also has the narrative that they're being disrupted by AI and smaller incumbents
who might be taking market share.
The numbers don't necessarily speak to that.
And I do think that some part of Adobe going down was absolutely
necessary. People were paying close to 35, 40 times forward EBITDA on Adobe at one point
last year. And now with the company down 60%, people are just like, oh, this is a dumpster
company with nothing going for it. And I'm looking at it and I'm like, wait a second,
no, the cash flows are good.
You know, the whole AI disruption and narrative fears are a bit overblown, in my opinion.
They're transitioning from purely...
So they had literally, in the past, they were more of a product company where they would
sell you standalone software.
They eventually transitioned to cloud, which made them a services company,
a SaaS, you know, which is a cloud-based SaaS company. And a lot of people hated that.
And I think right now they're also changing their business model from purely subscription to more
hybrid consumption. That transition is going to suck because, you know, people have to get used to paying more out of pocket when they're utilizing
But for enterprises that can afford it, understand that the tooling that they have is pretty
So I think over time, you'll see software companies, especially who have such entrenched user bases and business relationships,
they're going to be fine.
Could the multiple re-rating down be more prolonged than in the past?
I don't think that this thing is going back to a 30 multiple anytime soon,
especially if their growth rate is at this point at a mature 10 times forward
EBITDA. So at this point, I'd say SaaS is oversold. There are pockets of bullishness that
are coming up. ServiceNow is coming up. And a lot of the companies that are worth looking at right
now in the SaaS space are system of record companies that are not as easily replaceable as some people are making them out to be.
There's no just, hey, Claude, code me a version of ServiceNow and then train my entire organization on how to use it.
It just doesn't work that way.
And sure, incumbents might be coming to to try to compete against these guys the
problem is now no one is willing to invest in a software company because they're like well you
know it's all going to be competed away so if anything the current sas apocalypse is destroying
any notion that there's going to be future competition that's going to whittle away at
current market incumbents if anything it probably strengthens their moat to a degree because now you don't have capital going
into the ecosystem to try to compete anymore. So we'll see what happens. But this narrative that
SaaS is dead, I think is a little bit overblown, in which case now might be good opportunities to
just pick things up. And like Vegas said, just patience, just have that
patience, wait. And once the market wakes up and there's a multiple re-rating on top of earnings
and top of share buybacks, which is another mechanism that these SaaS companies can pull
because they do generate significant amounts of free cash flow that they can utilize to buy back
a bunch of shares. And if you look at Salesforce, they've gone even crazier where they're like,
screw it. We have a tremendous amount of cash flows. We don't have a lot of debt.
Let's issue debt and buy back a ton of our shares right now while we're cheap. And so that level of
confidence is a good indicator for me that at this point, there should be some bottom picking happening.
And I think if you're willing to take a little bit of the pain, stomach it, stomach the volatility, you have some really good opportunities right now.
But you're going to have to be very selective on which SaaS names you pick.
You know, picking up the companies that have very thin modes
that can be easily replaced, probably not a good idea.
But then there are other SaaS companies
that are either locked into an industry
and their default industry standards
or a system of record which can't be easily replaced.
Those businesses and those companies,
they're not going anywhere,
or at least they're not going
anywhere for the next five to 10 years. In which case, if they're buying back a ton of their shares
and some cases probably buying back between seven to 10% of their shares on an annual basis
at the current valuations, you're looking at a pretty dramatic improvement in forward EPS,
which means right now you're getting a tremendous amount of value.
But like I said, you have to be very careful in doing your due diligence
and then wake up and see that, wait a second,
maybe this was the time to pick things up.
It's definitely been interesting kind of the re-rating that's happened.
I don't even know, some people are even arguing that it's not even a re-rating.
It's just unfair punishment based on narrative. But it is really interesting to see
how that's affected a lot of things. And some of these names just seem like overdone. And I see,
you know, they bounced a little bit, but it's, and I don't know, how do you sift through those,
Chris? Just to get one follow-up question for you.
How do you sift through some of these companies that obviously have been beaten up,
but the valuations look a lot more attractive down here at these levels?
Well, the first thing I tend to do is I look at the business itself and see,
is this one of those things that someone else can recreate?
And what is the moat that's actually around this business? Is it something that people can just create on the fly and basically create a cheaper
version of it and then sell it and then make actual headway into market share?
That's like the first step.
So is the business disruptable?
Number two, is it in an industry that's heavily regulated
and doesn't exactly move at a very fast pace?
Because then you have incumbency that's not necessarily visible
But if you work in that industry, you would realize it.
Like if you look at Viva Systems, like Viva Systems,
they do a lot of software for drug manufacturing, for like patents and all this other stuff. That's a very heavily
regulated industry. To gain client trust, enterprise level trust is something that they've built over
the last two decades. It's not something that just is going to be disrupted overnight. And it's the same thing with a lot of other companies that have just giant user bases
where everyone understands how to use it.
Everyone knows how to use it.
And the cost of retraining an entire population of people is next to impossible.
I have certain applications that I work with at the hospital system that I work for.
CTO like, hey, are there any alternatives that you want to look at? Nope. Why? Do you think I
want to spend my time training a thousand radiologists on how to read on a different
platform? Like the company, like one of the ones that I'll talk about is like, it's called Power
Scribe. If you go to any hospital system in the United States, I would say nine out of 10 probably
use Power Scribe, which is a company, which is a product from a company called Nuance, which was bought by Microsoft.
The cost of ripping, stripping, retraining would be so far out of the realm of possible that most people that are like, hey, listen, we could probably do something cheaper.
are like hey listen we could probably do something cheaper they never even make it past the door so
They never even make it past the door.
yeah you really have to do a lot of in-depth research to figure out which which companies
exist in this in their specific niches and and like I said do the research find them I would
say that a great place to look right now is like system of record companies companies that have so much data for the last 10, 15, 20 years that the cost of ripping
out the current company would be more than the cost savings that you would get from trying
someone new, right? So that incumbency is one of those things that's hard to quantify,
but once you understand, you get it. It's like, yeah, this ain't going anywhere.
And the market is just basically being run on narratives
where they're just selling off the entire industry
without considering what they're selling off.
So it's like throwing out the babe with the bathwater.
That's exactly what's happening in SaaS.
Yeah, I hear you appreciate the additional context, Chris. Excited to come back around and
see what names you're looking at this week for our week-long competition here. Let's go over to
Ariel and get Ariel's thoughts. And then I see Sam joined us as well. Ariel, what are your thoughts
so far? I see an unmute, but I didn't get any audio there, Ariel. I don't know if you want to check your mic input, maybe.
If not, we can always drop down and get you reconnected right back up here.
Let's see if Ariel gets sorted out here.
Let me send a quick little invite here.
I was having issues, too.
Sam, you were having issues, too?
But I didn't see Chris talking crap about me earlier,
Yeah, we actually waited to see if you showed up
so we could just put that out in the air.
Why would you? No problem.
There. Now we got you, Ariel.
Even for the software side, we have kind of been seeing crypto fall with software for the better part of, you know, the last three months.
all with software for the better part of the last three months. And we got to give Bitcoin
a little bit of credit while we've been still dealing with some market volatility,
Thursday, Friday. It seems like Bitcoin's starting to perform a heck of a lot better,
at least from a technical perspective, back above its 50-day. And as Nick mentioned earlier, we're starting to see stocks show up and hold their gains,
whether it's an MBIS or the obvious recent move with an FSLY. So names on earnings are
performing well, and you still have these memory names performing well. You don't quite have
as much strength as I would like to see within the semiconductor space.
Obviously, that would be a big benefit for the market. On the flip side of that, you've got
financials acting very poor. And yet the market continues to be somewhat resilient,
living above the 200-day. That will continue to be important. But really, it's one of those
things that when we almost talked about it a month ago,
when you say, you know what, I don't really have an edge in this market because, you know,
you see the gap up this morning and part of you goes, oh, is this a, you know, a bit of a change
in character? Since the beginning of February, we've seen multiple gaps higher in the market only for just us to be right
back off to those lows. And it was even on Friday where you were effectively at a new closing low
since the beginning of February. So it's not like you have seen something so bullish in the market
today with the gap up that it's like forcing your hand to get in. Although you're still seeing some fairly good action, you're not really seeing anything that is definitive and you're still living below a 50 day
when you think about the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones and the Russell. So there should
really, you know, we haven't missed anything. And like I said, you know, maybe the best thing that's
going on right now is the strength in crypto.
And I mean, I couldn't necessarily tell you why it was one of the things that started to go down before the market.
Now, is it one of the things that has maybe bottomed before the market?
You know, that's a real possibility.
But what do you even buy?
You know, do you just get yourself into I mean, mean, no way a lot of us can be fully invested
in this market. That would just seem highly unusual to be completely invested in this super
uncertain market where one day you gap up and you're not plowing yourself in completely within
just one day. And then what do you buy? Is there enough, you know, things to buy? Where even Chris mentioned, you know, yeah, there's been a re-rating in software, but, just do a bunch of nothing. So playing a software bounce for me seems a little bit easier on the
IGV side because you don't necessarily have to pick the individual stock that will perform best.
You can just, you know, you can just have nice performance out of Microsoft, Palantir, Salesforce,
you know, and like a CrowdStrike or a Palo Alto, and you're going to get decent action
out of the IGV where if you pick yourself a stock, like whatever, it might be something random,
like an Intuit, you know, you can just end up with bad news and then ultimately end up missing
a good chunk of what could be a bounce in the software sector. So, you know, picking an
individual name that is going to be a bit more difficult than just kind of playing the group as a whole.
And, you know, just, you know, when you see weakness in the medals and you see some strength in the dollar, you know, for me, that still is just could be a little bit of risk off.
And we continue to be in a choppy environment.
And like I said, the coast isn't clear.
We do have some good action from individual names.
We do have, as Nick mentioned, what could be perceived as leadership.
We also have a ton of strong energy stocks that just do not seem to be going away anytime
And that could also be a trend that lasts a whole lot longer into the
end of the year. When I look at a name like, call it an XOM, breaking out of a three-year base,
that doesn't seem like something that just gets resolved in 60 days. That could easily be a trend
that persists a whole lot longer than I think any of us might be prepared for. And then have we seen
this movie before in 2022 where energy leads? And then you've
really got, you know, absolutely out of nothing out of the markets and nothing out of tech
for the time being. So it'll really be interesting to see. And I don't think until the market starts
to trade above its 50 day, is it even, you know, coast is clear. Again, we've seen these gap ups
before just get completely faded. And there's no real reason to
rush into anything and just kind of take it one trade at a time. You know, you'll see Nick buy
himself an NBIS and, you know, you get a really nice move out of it, peel some off into that kind
of strength and then just trail the rest of your position and just look for things, you know, one
name at a time versus, you know, thinking, oh my God, it's a gap up day.
I gotta get myself completely invested in the market
The reality is is if we're gonna break out
of this five month consolidation,
which has effectively been going on since that nasty day,
I wanna say it was October 10th.
If we're eventually going to break out
of this consolidation to the upside,
it should be a longer uptrend than just a day or two or three.
So we'll have plenty of time to get involved on the long side if that's exactly what the market's going to do.
But it hasn't really given you the coast as clear.
And I think it will when you start to see some better participation from software.
If indeed crypto has bottomed and if semiconductors are going to continue higher.
And really the XLK, the tech ETF, because it is about 30 to 35 percent waiting within the NASDAQ or the S&P 500.
Excuse me. So we'll just kind of see and continue to take things one day at a time.
I do not think any of us have missed anything in this market. Just,
you know, go into, uh, go into work out in the middle of the day. You could, you could walk
away from 24 hours and it'll probably look very, very similar to what you were just looking at the
day before. I feel like I'm watching the same episode on repeat for the last six miles. Like
I'm just reruns of the office or something that I'm just watching here,
Ariel, but I appreciate the thoughts and the context there.
Seems like we're just stuck.
And I asked this question a little bit earlier.
I'm curious if you had any thoughts around, you know,
potential catalyst or shift or something that would move us out of this range.
Yeah, I definitely, I mean, you can see how
well attached at the hip, the crude oil and the NASDAQ are at the moment, which is super unfortunate
because, you know, part of me, I am long VLO and XOM. So of course, part of me wants to see those
go higher. On the flip side, I also want to see, you know, growth and tech improve. So I do wish that
these things weren't attached at the hip. Obviously, you start to have crude oil live, you know,
call it north of 80, north of 90. You know, when does that, you know, start to, you know,
lift inflation expectations? You know, is that effectively like taking an interest, you know,
Is that effectively like taking an interest rate hike off the table or should I say a cut off the table?
So that's, I guess, kind of an interesting question to ask.
So, yeah, seeing crude oil come back down, obviously seeing us kind of deescalate the war, which is unfortunate as well,
It's unfortunate as well that, you know, the markets are kind of in this really strong news driven headline, you know, market where, you know, the Hormuz is closed and, you know, the markets are dumping or oils ripping.
And again, things are attached at the hip. I think that the other thing that, you know, we kind of have to keep an eye on is the U.S. dollar index.
is the US dollar index. Obviously, you could see how well the dollar index has been acting lately.
And you could see how really weak the market has been as of late. And then today, the dollar index
was down and the markets were up. So those are also very correlated. It's not really something
that I want to see. And maybe the dollar index coming down as well. So there's a few things. I don't really
know what gets us out. Ultimately, the thing that pushes the market higher are individual stocks.
So the stocks that have the most weighting to the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are obviously going
to play your biggest role. You could look at an NVIDIA today and just see how when Jensen mentioned $1 trillion and you get a big lift, basically everything in the market, NASDAQ and S&P 500 included, also got a quick lift.
But then the moment that NVIDIA, you know, kind of shrugs off that news and goes back and gives effectively that whole move back, the market does something very similar.
So ultimately, it's going to come down to the stocks that can move the market.
You don't really want to see a meta going lower. You don't really want to see NVIDIA or an AVGO
losing the 200-day. You don't want to see an NVIDIA look like Netflix two, three months from now,
or we're just not going to be going anywhere. In fact, you would
argue that we would be losing the 200 day as well for the NASDAQ. So obviously the stocks that carry
the most weighting and can actually move markets are going to be very important that they start
participating, seeing financials participate. And you saw Chris mentioned something about the
private credit names, like your OWL, or I want to say, what is it?
Is it KKR is another one.
So you've got a few of these, you know, that are fairly important, you know, and maybe seeing those names bounce back as well.
But ultimately, it's going to just be what names have the most weighting towards the market and who can actually move the market higher.
A big portion of that is semiconductors and tech. And you're going to have to see those names
performing a whole hell of a lot better. That's ultimately what it comes down to.
That or those names maybe do nothing and everything else participates in a big way,
in which case you'll see the QQQE and the RSP performing super,
super well, maybe while semiconductors do a little bit of nothing for a few more weeks
or another month, and then hopefully they begin to catch a bid themselves.
One thing to mention about inflation, even though I know we're dealing with this thing
with the straight-up-whore moves, The market being flat like this for a prolonged period of time
could actually be disinflationary.
Because if you look at the top 10% to 20% of people,
they're literally doing 50% of the spending.
So if the market is in a low point right now,
I think that could probably get a lot of consumption
to start kind of moderating a little bit going forward.
starting to show cracks here and there depending on location. So I think we have a weird situation
where while oil prices are higher today, any resolution on the oil situation could theoretically,
in my opinion, push us into more disinflation. So that in itself could be
like a counterbalance point. I'd love to hear if anyone has any thoughts on that.
Yeah, Chris, I haven't thought, sorry, sorry about that, Sam, I'll let you go here in a second. And
I don't, I don't have too, too many thoughts on that point myself, other than, you know, from the
from price action, the sheer amount of stocks that are acting well in the energy space
lends itself to thinking that those names at the very least, so long as crude finds a new basement,
call it at 80, can continue to act well. But even those stocks as well, they're not a big
enough component right now of the S&P 500 to really move us higher. But I do understand what
you're saying. If crude does start to come down, that could be viewed as disinflationary. And ultimately, this is what
makes the market such a beautiful place, right? You're going to have varying opinions where some
people will look at the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ and they'll say, well, after a 60% move off the
April lows, sideways for five or six months is just complete digestion, super healthy.
And I could see that argument.
And then the other side of the coin is, well, after a 50, 60% move off the lows, this is just distribution before ultimately breaking lower.
I could also see that side of the argument as well.
I tend to lean to the side of optimism because we've already seen software and cryptos
and financials get beaten up in a pretty big way. So if those can start to come back around and then
semiconductors can get going, I want to lean to the side of optimism for sure.
But I can see both sides of that coin. And as I always like to joke, beauty's in the eye of
the beer holder. And that's just kind of where we're at at the market right now. And, you know, as I always like to joke, you know, beauty's in the eye of the beer holder. And that's just kind of where we're at, at the market right now. Ultimately, it just becomes,
what are you buying? What are you buying? Where are you buying it? How much of something are you
buying? And where do you leave if you're wrong? And then just, you know, taking it one day at a
time. Sam, jump in on that subject and any of your market sentiment thoughts, Mr. Third Place?
Wow. You know, you could have just said that I placed, but you had to add that, you know,
you're not first place. Like you're good enough, you're good enough, but you're just not good
enough. Right. Sort of thing. You always do that to me. You did it to me too.
No, no, no. Well, Vegas was first loser, your second loser. sort of thing man you always do you always do that to me you did it to me too no no but you
know the app app is uh biggest was first loser your second loser okay there you go yeah all right
so i guess i guess i missed it by the mark but i don't know it's like that it's like that seinfeld
joke or jerry seinfeld joke where it's like you know first place is good but the worst place you
could be at the first place is second place. Cause that means that out of all the losers, you came in first, right?
Like, oh, Jerry Stonflut is so funny.
Anyways, congratulations, Ariel.
Saw that you got married recently.
Married life is a very fun life.
And a lot of your buddies were there too.
Top is in. The top is in cause you just got married. were there too um it's all over thanks for the thanks for the invite no just kidding around
that's up because you just got married um anyways no i mean the oil trade the market trade as it is right now the dollar trade the rates trade or the yields rate uh trade is all associated with oil
right now and we've noticed oil starting to picked up as soon as the market started sniffing
out all of these conflicts when it comes to oil, but mostly with Iran.
And one thing that was actually very interesting to see, because we have seen direct one-to-one
price reaction to the climatic events that we see with the Iran war. When the Iran conflict,
when it's escalated, you saw oil go up. When it de-escalated, you saw oil go down. You saw the
same thing last week with Trump, where he was basically talking down the price of oil and
whatever, talking about the reserves and everything, and then oil pulled back a large amount,
and the market bounced. And then oil came back and we saw the escalation continue further and then the market dropped. But one thing that was actually very
interesting to notice is that this whole weekend, all I saw was escalation of the events. I'm not a
geopolitical expert, not even close to it. And I'm not even the best interpreter when it comes
to these headlines. I just know how the market perceives it based off its reaction. And you saw
And I would assume it's as a result of the escalation of the conflict.
But one thing that we noticed was that you didn't really see a de-escalation of the conflict.
Maybe I missed something, but you didn't see a de-escalation of the conflict, but oil closed
So it gave up all of its gains and it closed down after an escalation event, not a de-escalation
event. of its gains and it closed down after an escalation event not a de-escalation event so i like to look
for these inflections to see how either the move as it stands today is exhausted we've seen the
same thing happen at peak reversals of the market and they don't have to be like secular reversals
but at least local reversals we saw the same thing with the market back in 2022 when CPI printed
its highest print. The market didn't bottom at that time, but you did see further in October
of 2022 when we missed by a lot with CPI. And CPI was way harder than what the market expected.
And the market ended up closing green in that day. And that was a day that had bottomed. And I still
remember that day specifically because the NASdaq has been falling for 10
days straight leading to that day.
It was an exhaustion event for the amount of sellers that were in the market.
Now if we fast forward to today, I don't know if oil peaked in its current cycle.
It's possible that the move down won't be as dramatic as
the move up because you did have a lot of offsides positioning and oil heading into
the event like oil was trading like 50 something dollars.
And there were so many fund managers short oil on the CME futures or the COT commitment
And they all got squeezed hard. And that's a lot of what you
saw with the oil price appreciating. Now that a lot of that short is unwinded, it's possible
that oil, that the shorts might not throw it back on there. But it's also possible that a lot of
the buyers already made a lot of money off their trade and now taking the risk off the table now that the OVX is starting to drop.
So the OVX is actually the VIX for oil.
I don't know the exact calculation as it is compared to the VIX with the S&P 500 index.
But if this OVX index continues to drop, it's likely that the volatility of oil in up and down directions
continue to drop. And then, perhaps then, we won't get these crazy surprise moves up in oil.
In my opinion, if you don't see any surprise movements in oil to the upside,
then it's possible the market has already gotten used to the price moves in oil
It's also possible that the bottom we saw in crypto at 60K was actually the bottom
because we've seen an outperformance of relative outperformance in crypto
for the last couple of weeks ever since it bottomed out around,
I think it was like around 60K and change. And I know that very cleanly because, uh, of course was long everything when
that happened and the guy doesn't freaking miss. And I don't know why, but I need to like install
one of those like screen scrapers on his screen. So I know when he's long, the future isn't shorting
it. So I know how to position myself. But anyways, um, I would perceive that number.
I do have your number, but you don't respond fast enough, baby.
But anyways, actually, you do respond fast enough.
But anyways, the way that I see it is that it's possible that crypto might have bought them.
And you've seen like a massive outperformance of crypto compared to the SP500 in the queues.
But also, even leaders in the sector like Circle, CRCL, is more than double since it bought them around $60K.
Around $60-something. So I'm playing this a little bit. I have a small position in circle right now just to ride the
trend. It would have been nice to get a little bit of a pullback, but that pullback didn't even
come. It hasn't even come back to test the 90 in May on the weekly yet. So we'll see what happens
with that one. But yeah, no, I am eager to see what the next move is in the market because we're still
And it's difficult to say when we're going to break out because like you're saying, Ariel,
is that every time we get to the top end of this range, it just gets rejected.
And it's not like it's like a bit of resistance where it's going to test it again.
It is a massive rejection.
Like the sellers come in hard and bring it all the way
down to the bottom of the range. I'm not a futures expert trader, but when I look at the charts,
it looks like we're in range. My brother actually says he trades ES futures. He says that it's a
massive bull flag that's setting up. And one thing that we've seen with the VIX is that the VIX has
been basically pulling back from the
35, 36 region where it basically topped out the other week. And we've been slowly pulling back,
making lower lows and lower highs. Before that, we were actually making higher lows and higher
highs, which is very interesting to see because VIX would never drop below $20. But if we do
continue to get the downward compression with VIX, because it's at 2350
now is down like 14%, even though we faded throughout the entire day, VIX still did
It's possible that if we close below $22, that put us below the, that put us below the,
I'll make a lower low in the VIX from a weak perspective, weak WEEK perspective.
But we even made a lower high at $28 the other day.
So, I mean, we'll see what happens.
I'm trying to monitor this as best as I can.
But it does look like for now, you know, of course, unless we get like a random escalation
and price reacting to it, the price is telling me right now that we did bottom for now.
But you know, we'll see what happens. I'm going to play year by year. I'm not trying to like gun
it for the hills right now. Like this isn't like April into September last year where everything
went up every single day. Like this is still a narrow market. And I'm actually glad you mentioned
fastly earlier. I've been along that thing since $19 when you had, I didn't hit it exactly when the nine and 21 crossed over each other, the nine 21 EMA crossed over
each other on a daily basis. But I did buy the dip after a few days after their earnings
recently and the things has been it's been on quite a tear recently. But DigitalOcean
has been a monster lately. And usually this has moved in sync with Fastly because they're both kind of on the edge sector
when you think of inference.
But even Digital Ocean, like this thing is making a higher.
So like I wouldn't say all of SaaS is down today.
And technically speaking, these aren't really SaaS companies.
Fastly is more of a SaaS company than Digital Ocean.
But they do move in tandem with the entire sector.
And I think anything that has to do with less of a license-based operation
and more of a usage-based, which in this case, DigitalOcean would be
because it's based on usage of compute.
I think those are getting more of the appreciation in the software sector.
And the seat-based model companies are the ones that are getting hit hardest the most
because when you start to have AI
start to take over, people start to build things in-house or the dependency and licensing
that's based on, that a lot of these companies are based on, they might see a reduction in
headcount, which is going to directly impact the amount of revenue that they're expected
So I think a market is kind of looking out for that one.
And as Nvidia Jensen Wang has said many times, compute equals revenue.
So if this guy is promising $1 trillion of revenue, like the companies need to find that
cost to reduce somewhere else in order to fund their AI capex. And that's the reason why you've
seen a lot of this headcount reduction, especially with the news of meta over the weekend, where
they're going to be having a massive layoff, or they're planning to have a layoff that's going
to affect up to 20% of its staff. Like that's a big move and it's all to fund CapEx, right? So this could have a direct
impact when it comes to seed-based license companies. Also, DigitalOcean benefits a lot
from the agentic move with like OpenClaw because I know a lot of people are using VPSs, right, Sam?
Yeah. So in my opinion, this has a lot to do with the inference of the edge computing.
And that's the reason why you saw Cloudflare continuing to get a bid.
I don't actually, I don't know if Cloudflare was actually up today.
Cloudflare was green today.
Yeah, that's why you're seeing like these consumption-based license models are doing
So it was nice to see that it has done pretty good.
But that's underperforming the Qs today.
And the SOX, IGV-SOX ratio, semiconductors continue to outperform even after today.
I didn't particularly like seeing the semiconductors reject the 21 EMA
on the daily. That rejected pretty hard after it popped earlier today with NVIDIA.
So, but we've seen these shakeouts happen over and over and over again. So I don't know,
we'll see what happens. But I mean, that was a massive move NVIDIA made in the middle of the day.
It just sold a lot of that off, which I don't like to see at all.
You know, so we'll see. I mean, that was a massive liquidity grab. We'll see if we revisit those
lows. But yeah, as you guys mentioned, we're still below the 50 day moving average of the 50 EMA
on the Qs right now. There is a short term downtrend and a long term downtrend because
you already had the crossover of the 100-day and the 50-day.
The next one would be the 50-day going below the 200-day, but you do need a lot of downward movement or at least chop for that to happen. The RSP is underperforming today, so it is more
tech-concentrated. But yeah, TLT was up today, which means that rates were down, oil was down
today, dollar was down today, and tech was up were down. Oil was down today. Dollar was down today
and tech was up. And that is pretty much all the same trade in my opinion.
Appreciate those thoughts, Sam. I know we're a little bit over time, but what great information
we've had given out by the entire panel up here. Real quick, before we go into these picks and
everything, I do want to shout out everyone up here.
Make sure you follow them, check them out,
everything they're doing around this app and in other places.
A lot of streams going on, a lot of teaching,
a lot of groups that you can join to follow closer,
deep dive a little bit further with each of these people.
Definitely check all of them out.
Jordan, did you have any thoughts you want to throw in
before we start jumping into picks?
No, no, the panel covered it very well. I'm taking this market day by day. Me and you are doing things very similar as the day traders. So I'm not going to get over my head and get into
any real thoughts because it just changes from day to day and all we end up doing is staying
in this range. So I think the panel did a great job a great job. I'm just going to leave it at that
and we'll go into picks. Beautiful. The only thing
I'll say is this FOMC on Friday I think is probably the one that I've
least thinking about in a long time with Powell
kind of on the way out with all the stuff going on in the Middle East. I don't know
how much we look at the data right now.
I just don't think that I think it's going to be very overshadowed.
I don't think it's going to be much of an event.
That's my thoughts there.
And I think big options expiration on Friday might be our next key to maybe getting a little
bit more movement here as we start to get some reshuffling of positioning and stuff
So we'll see if that leads to it. But right now, let's lead into the two picks
for the week. We'll start with our current champion, as we always do, Nick Drendel, for two
picks for the week. All right. I should have just shared both of them in the nest. Yeah,
they are. So first one, I'm going to go with LWLG. One of the kind of
chart themes that we've seen work really well in the market is either an earnings gap up or just
an enormous volume gap up. And then when you close continuously over that day one close,
we saw it with Fastly, we saw it with Circle, AOI until recently, and it got extended.
We saw it with Circle AOI until recently and it got extended.
So this LWLG, really nice move of 41% on the highest volume ever,
closed in the upper half of the daily range on Thursday.
Huge relative strength on Friday while the market pulled back.
Today it pulled into that high volume close area,
got situated in it as it came back through like 729, 730. So we had
that high volume close tested and buyers stepped in again. So we'll see if this just wants to
continue to trend higher, but I've got my stop just under $7 on this name. And then the other one is going to be SEI. This is a stock that I've been watching
for a while now. I've put on a couple of trades, a couple of losses, two to 3% on this, but I really
liked the action today, or I guess over the last couple of weeks, we pulled back onto the 50-day.
We had that big push on the 10th and then just kind of a lower volume pullback on Thursday and Friday into the 5, the 10, the 20, and the 50-day moving
averages. So if those are all stacked on top of each other, you know volatility has compressed.
Today, when that market pressure lifts, we immediately gap up, open pretty strong, and
then close really well over two resistance gaps. And this is the strongest
close for the stock ever. So if the market pressure is going to continue to lift stocks
that either have already made very high value moves, showing that there's an enormous amount
of demand for them or compressed weekly charts with relative strength that are already back into new highs. Those are
the names that have the, I would say the highest likelihood of making meaningful moves for your
portfolio. All right, my headphone died on your first ticker. I got SEI as the second one. What was the first one? First one is LWLG.
Two longs from our current champion, Nick Drendel.
LWLG, Lightwave Logic, and SEI, Solaris Energy Infrastructure.
They're both long side from Nick Drendel.
22.5% return last week. So we'll take a look, see if Nick holds onto his crown. Nick, we appreciate you and fantastic job
this past week. Great having you as part of the panel. Second place was Vegas. Vegas,
two picks from you, please. Yeah. Hi. Okay. So I would like to pick SNDK. Is there an ETF for that? Or no?
I don't know if there's any leveraged.
So let's do that one. And then I still want to keep a circle.
CRCA is what you went with last week.
Put me down for those two.
I thought for sure you were going to go with Leverage Costco,
but we're okay with this right here.
I have Leverage here tonight.
Do you have boots on the ground reporting?
I don't recommend you guys go there.
I don't even want to know how much gets spent there until I get the credit card bill and
Yeah, I wasn't planning on it, but I just thought some of these nice things.
Well, we appreciate you tuning in.
Boots on the ground at Costco right now.
SNXX, that's 2X Leverage SanDisk,
and CRCA, which is ProShares Ultra Leverage Circle, CRCL,
the underlying there from Vegas, both on the long side.
As always, I'm putting out a tweet with each one of these picks.
Let us know which pick is your favorite
or which one you would have added into the mix once I get this sent out here shortly.
Sam Solid, second loser, 2.29%.
Which two picks do you have?
I haven't even thought about this, to be completely honest.
All right, so I'm going to go long.
I hate to do this, but all right, I'm going to go long AO I hate to do this, but all right.
I'm going to go long A-A-O-I, Photonics trade here.
And I'm also going to go long H-I-M-Z for HIMS.
A-A-O-I, first pick there.
And HIMS with a Z, H-I-M-S-E, the leveraged version of HIMS.
You know, I looked at that chart
and I still like what that chart's doing right now
on the 50-day kind of consolidating right above it.
because I feel like NVO is going to be a beneficiary of this,
but I feel like it's a longer play out on that one.
But the HIMS chart still looks very good.
Yeah, Nova Nordisk needs HIMS more than HIMS needs Nova Nordisk in my opinion. Looks very good. A-A-O-I and H-I-M-Z? Yeah.
Nova Nordisk needs Hems more than Hems needs Nova Nordisk, in my opinion.
And Nova Nordisk is getting hit still, which I'm in control.
So I would be more bullish Hems.
I think that's better on the technical setup on the chart. And A-O-I, I'm just playing the Photonics bounce.
All right. There you go. Sam Solid, third place. Still on
the podium though. I was fourth place, so I'll throw in my picks here. Next, I'm going to try
something here. UAL, United Airlines. I think the airlines are going to bounce back here a little
bit. Kind of hoping that we get a little calmed down.
Maybe this has been an overreaction.
Obviously, this is related to oil a lot as well.
And then, so yeah, first pick UAL.
Second pick, I'm going to short USO.
It just looks like, and that's what I'm leaning towards.
It's funny, a lot of you mixed or mentioned the mix between
like the inverse relationship of like the NASDAQ and oil or just the general market.
I've literally been trading with those two just side by side, even on our stream.
We've just had those two side by side on the screen because they are basically just kind of inversing each other most of the time.
So I'm going to bet that things calm down a little bit, at least on the oil front.
Maybe we get some more good news throughout this week. I still want to see the indices touch the
200-day during the cash session at some point. I know we've gotten there the last two Sundays on
kind of the futures side of things, if you line it all up. But I still think that that's possible,
but I do think there'll be buyers there again. But we'll see.
I think maybe in the short term we get a little relief on this,
hopefully between now and next Monday for purposes of the competition.
So UAL, UAL, long, USO, short are my two picks.
Jordan, you're next in line.
So we'll go over to you for your two picks next,
and we'll continue through the rest.
We'll try a little of that.
I'm going to say screw it and give me my TQQQ long,
and we'll do that for the week.
I don't know. I don't know.
I might show up tomorrow and be shorting the hell out of NQ.
You know, the funny thing is I feel like you could pick TQQQ every week
and as long as you could take profit at some point during the week,
I feel like you're going to be right.
It's just the way this has been back or forth. It feels like as long as you're not buying at the top during the week, I feel like you're going to be right. It's just the way this has been back or forth. It feels like you just, as long as you're not buying at the top of the
range, you probably have a pretty good chance. All right. So gold was also interesting. I don't
know how many of you guys have been watching gold. It's been getting hit a little bit. I think it's
good enough for like a little relief balance. It keeps coming down. Yeah, it keeps coming down to
this 5k level and it keeps wanting to hold it though. If you look at the gold futures, 5,000 GC futures continue to want to hold kind of right on that 5,000.
We saw it dip under that and get bought right back up again today.
So, GDXU for Jordan, alongside, and T-Triple-Qs for my normal co-host.
Some of the co-hosts was glitching out today.
You're my co-host. You're always,
will you're next up to picks.
I got to go into leverage shares.
Shout out leverage shares.
It's going to be RT X G short.
And I'm also going to do H O O so short robin hood and short raytheon
i think on the robin hood call i'm just looking on the daily we had a nice little bear flag that
was set up there on the daily chart and robin hood has slipped below that trend line right about 75. so i'm gonna see if
that can move to the downside a little bit and raytheon to your point on the us01 i just think
the uh maybe some of that war premium comes out and uh maybe the defense names take a back seat
this week if uh we get any positive headlines out of the Iran situation.
So that's kind of haunt Blanum.
That is 2X leverage hood from our friends over at Leverage Shares.
And then the other one also Leverage Shares short RTXG.
And of course, if you're looking to chart those, look at the underlying hood and RTX
for the underlying charts and then putting the 2X leverage on top of that. So two shorts
from Mr. Will. All right, Ariel, got you up next on my list. Ariel, what two picks are you looking
at this week? Yeah, and that's kind of an interesting pick, talking about RTXG because the ITA ETF last week had a pretty big spill there.
So I think maybe a little bit of that premium, partly because of what you saw in GE and Boeing. which just kind of makes me doubt how much the UFO ETF is going to be moving higher because
part of me still likes Rocket Lab, RKLB, as a long. I'm not sure if they've got
a leverage, but we'll just go with Rocket Lab on the long side. Although, let me just
with Rocket Lab on the long side. Although let me just preface by saying that neither Rocket Lab or
PL or ASTS or KTOS have been inspiring any sort of confidence lately. And then let's go with the
AVGO on the short side, hugging the 200 day. I thought it was a little bit better of a short
last week, but i still think that
if you start to lose the 200 day on an avgo uh you should start to roll over here fairly quickly
i'm trying to see if there's a leverage you said rklb yeah and then um I know there is, you know, it's, it's, I looked at AVS, but it's, it's fairly
liquid. I wouldn't really ever tell anybody to touch anything like that. AVGX is another one.
I mean, for the sake of the competition, we could probably short AVGX instead of AVGO because they
move a little bit faster. But Rocket Lab, you know, it's a fast mover already.
There is RKLX if you want it.
Okay, yeah, let's roll with that one.
Although it's, yeah, we'll go with that one.
And then we can do AVGX on the long side. And then, um, we can do what's AVGX on the short side.
All right, there we go. Rocket lab long, this rocket lab consolidation is ready for a big move.
Yeah. One way or the other, it's going to make a move at some point. Yeah. I agree with Will. Um,
you did see kind of a ugly move down in the ITA and that one
consisted of, you know, like your LMT, your L3 Harris, your Raytheon, Boeing, GE, and then your
UFO ETF, also aerospace and defense, but it's, you know, kind of filled up with your ASTS, your PL,
your Rocket Lab, you know, nice relative strength out of Rocket Lab
today. Nothing super, super impressive, but if it can get moving out of this range,
I think, you know, maybe we can go for a ride. All right, there we have it. Just to call those
back one more time, Long RKLX, short AVGX from the newly married man himself, Ariel.
Congratulations, sir, by the way.
Last but not least, Chris, thanks for being patient as we get around the panel today.
There's been some really great information shared up here today.
Chris, which two picks are on your radar for the week?
So I'm going to go with one, the cruise line, CCL.
So I think you guys are right.
If there's any news about the Strait of Hormuz
and that whole thing resolving even to a certain degree,
I think you'll see a rally in the cruise lines.
So one is CCL, which is Carnival Cruise Lines.
And another one is Amazon. So AMZU for the leverage one.
I think NVIDIA basically just said, go long cloud. Like hyperscalers are going to do really
well going forward. So I think the market will digest it. And yeah, Amazon will catch a bid.
and yeah, Amazon will catch a bid.
Well, Sam is just over there on his knees praying
I did hear that though today.
That was very interesting.
That was one of the takeaways I had,
at least from listening was we need more cloud.
And I felt like Jensen was pumping every stock
except his own at one point.
And then he finally came out that,
but 1 trillion in revenue.
It doesn't sound like this is slowing down.
I want to believe this chart.
it just seems to like fake you out.
And then it'll like come right back.
everybody remembers like,
why are we not long this stock? And then, and then it'll kind come right back. You know, if I'm roaring back, everybody remembers like, hey, why are we not long this stock?
And then it'll kind of do its little thing, fake you out again.
But I feel like it's due for a big move at some point.
Trading at half the valuation, even of like Walmart, which obviously is the greatest company in the world.
But still, I don't even I would say that that seems a little bit insane to think about.
And then CCL Cruise Lines, kind of the same thing, Chris, that I've got,
is that if we get some kind of relief, these cruise lines, airlines, travel,
we'll probably pick right back up.
Right, let me get this typed in here into the tweet.
Boom, what a great show, just over an hour and a half today.
We don't get to do that every time, but I tell you what, whenever I've got a great panel like
this on with me, I'm definitely going to, I mean, even if it's for selfish reasons, I'm going to
milk all of the great thoughts that I can out of this panel. And I do appreciate each and every one
of them. If you're in the audience, I will just remind you once again, please go in, follow these
different speakers, panelists, whatever you want to call them that are on the stage with
us today, sharing their time on a Monday evening, sharing their wisdom, their thoughts.
And just, boy, what a great space that this turned into today.
So I appreciate the whole crew.
Each and every Monday, we do this 5 p.m.
Obviously, we'll be back next Monday, same time, same place.
We'll have the results for this week.
Reminder from the competition side of things,
wherever the ticker opens up tomorrow
is the starting price through the following Monday's close.
So we don't really do anything with the after hours
Sometimes you get news, whatever happens here in after hours.
So we go from tomorrow's open until the following Monday's closed,
must fare away that we know how to do it.
And I'm excited for this one.
We have a litany of different picks this week.
From Nick Drindle, our current champion, LWLG, SEI, Vegas, Sandisk, and Circle.
Sam Solid is looking at the Hems.
He thinks Hems is to uh pop a pill and
catch a bid over there um a couple of us playing kind of the oil downside jordan looking at the
gold uh will the gold get a move that'll be interesting i've been trading a lot lately it's
just been cleaner yeah a lot of times so well now it's calmed down it it does it has been making
kind of it's still volatile but it's like not like insane
Like it was like, I don't know.
It's not shooting fish in a barrel volatile anymore.
It's, you know, just maybe a little noodling in there.
That was an interesting reference I just made.
So I apologize for that one.
Either way, here we are into the space.
Big shout out to everyone hanging out with us here.
I see a lot of friends down in the audience hanging out, watching.
I always look down to see who's in the audience, what's going on.
I see a lot of familiar faces down there.
When I put this tweet out here in just a minute, let us know which ticker would you have picked?
Do you like one of the ones that our panelists came up with?
Is there something that you would have tossed into the mix?
Let us know underneath this tweet that's going out.
Let me add one little emoji to it just to make
kind of surprised no one picked NVIDIA.
no one picked NVIDIA. Did no one get bullish
There's a lot, by the way.
You know, $1 trillion of revenue.
To save $1 trillion in revenue and for it to wick up and then just fall back apart like that.
Yeah, liquidity is being used to sell into.
I mean, if you look at where nvidia is at you're right at the point
of control of literally the last seven eight months at this point almost nine this last last
july august when you got up to these this 180 area the point of control for literally the last
eight to nine months so the where prices hung out the most amount of time is right here,
So right where we're hanging out.
So it's pretty incredible.
Dude, option sellers must have made a killing on NVIDIA.
The vol on this thing during earnings was insane.
It's like, is that NVIDIA is like the perfect, what is it called?
Iron Commodore or Strangle for the last three months.
Exactly, exactly. It's an ATM machine. ATM machine. Perfect, what is it called? Iron Commodore or Strangle for the last three months.
Several of the names have been similar to that.
I mean, obviously some have actually made big moves,
but some of these market favorite type of names have been kind of in that same category.
Palantir's been all over the place. Meta, Meta's another one. Palantir has been all over the place.
Meta is another one for sure.
I feel like if there's one piece of homework
that I would give anyone,
not any of you guys up here,
I would say study more on selling options.
If you don't know much about selling options,
you should study up on it
and add that to your arsenal because there are, I mean, you can do it at any point in the market, but there are
times like right now in the market where you have a lot of things that are just all over the map.
I mean, I've been saying it on this space since November that your mag seven have been
completely disconnected from each other where some of them are just right in the middle.
Some of them were making new all-time highs, like when Google was up there, Apple was up there as well at one point.
And then you had other ones well below the 200-day, just because they're all doing different things.
The market's just been sideways really since then. I mean, you go all the way back, Nick
Drendel making the point of October 10th, when we kind of had that, it wasn't the peak, but it was
kind of that moment, right, where it started to go sideways when you had that huge kind of distribution
bar. And so since then, a lot of sideways action.
And high implied volatility right now. That's the other thing.
It's perfect for option selling is you want that.
If you can get a VIX between, you know, 20 and 30, but not a VIX,
it's running, you know, 35 to 40, like just on the upside,
but just kind of elevated VIX.
It's a great market to be selling premium in.
Crush the vol. And we have that option selling video
over on the Wolf Trading channel as well.
That is a great point, Jordan.
On the Wolf Trading YouTube channel, which I'm live on all day, every day,
Jordan's there with me about every afternoon and as well as all day Friday.
We've got live trading going on there.
Any of the rest of you on this panel, always welcome to stop by.
We'll definitely love to have your insights throughout the trading day. And in the
video section over there, you can see there is a video on selling spreads, selling options,
collecting that premium. Become the dealer, right? That's what they always say. And I think it's such
a good reference there. Become the dealer. The dealer always has the advantage, right? So you
want to own the casino, right? You want to be the dealer at the casino.
Get that extra advantage in your hand.
I did not plan on going 40 minutes over time,
but boy, it was worth it.
Worth every minute of it in my mind.
And hopefully you got something out of it as well.
If you came in late today, as always,
So you can listen back to the entire thing as soon as I close it down here in just a moment.
And make sure you check our pinned tweet as always for the entire schedule of all the different
things that we've got going on. And then there's plenty of other things going on. Obviously,
we've got the live streams going on all day on Wolf Trading, on the Wolf Financial YouTube. Sam
has the solid report that
comes out in the afternoons. A great thing that I like to throw on at nighttime, just see what I
miss throughout the day or kind of recap my day, get some of his thoughts, breaking it down. So I
love that. All the other ones that are up here on stage, always doing great things around as well.
So make sure you check all those out, subscribe to those channels. I know most of you use YouTube. A lot of us hang out here on X, of course, but YouTube, great tool, great information
over there. Check out the Wolf Trading and Wolf Financial, both of those channels. I think there's
a Wolf Bitcoin channel as well that's been getting going a little bit. I saw Taj hanging out with us
here again. I know he's got some stuff going on on the Bitcoin channel as well. So make sure you
And yeah, last thing, programming note,
I'll be traveling first thing in the morning.
So no live stream tomorrow, just live spaces.
First space of the day will be right here on Wolf Financial.
It's our Wolf EU space that Eva runs with a great crew, some great topics in that space.
If you're up early, especially if you're on the East Coast,
throw that on while you get ready for your day. And then of course, live trading in the morning over on Wolf
Trading throughout the entire day. Stocks on Spaces is going on a little bit. Evan and Stock
Talk are out there at GTC. I saw Evan put up a picture. Somebody said, did Evan post a picture
of himself? No, that was Stock Talk.
But either way, a lot of friends out there at that conference.
A lot of great things going on.
VIX expiration, I believe, is Wednesday, Will?
The rest of it is on Friday.
And futures roll was today for most everybody.
And then futures does expire on Friday.
But VIX does expire on Wednesday.
One of the last few times that we get to last couple of times,
we get to see him giving a speech.
I'm going to cherish that.
I'm going to miss old J pal.
guys have a great rest of your Monday evening.
I've got to get off here,
get some stuff ready and we will see you bright and early right here on Wolf Financial inPAL. All right, guys. Have a great rest of your Monday evening. I've got to get off here, get some stuff ready,
and we will see you bright and early right here on Wolf Financial in the morning.
Take care, everyone. Thank you.