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Stock Picks for the Week
Recorded: March 30, 2026 Duration: 1:52:31Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. am i supposed to be hearing something i don't hear anything
oh i was uh i was getting organized over here on my end but that was perfect timing because we're ready to go. Happy Monday, everyone. Great
to hear Ben over at Story Trading. I have him back on the show here. Excited for that. I see
Nick Drendel Vegas joining us up here as well. Got the links sent over to some of the rest of
the crew. I know a couple of people said they weren't going to make it today. I think a few
will trickle in here shortly. Either way, the show will go on.
And I know Evan is running a different space right now,
but he won trying to fade himself.
I'll go into that here in just a minute.
Let's hit the results for the last week.
Welcome in, everyone.
Happy Monday.
Last Monday of March.
Here we are, end of the quarter, end of the month tomorrow. Last Monday of March. Here we are into the quarter, into the month tomorrow. Last Monday of that,
obviously today, market continues to sell off. Here we are down again on the day, just under 1%.
The S&P 0.4% down today. Tech was down a little bit more. And since last Monday, when we last
spoke, we had a little Monday pump last week.
Obviously, that got faded.
Here's the week-long results for the competition.
I see Ariel down there in the audience.
Go ahead and send you a request there as well.
For those that are new to the show, we do a stock picking competition show each and every Monday.
We go through market sentiment, broader market thoughts, tips, tricks, education,
all that good stuff in the first part of the show. And then we come around, we get two picks from everyone, two tickers can be long or short, can be leverage tickers, can be anything out there.
Basically, if it's got a ticker, we will allow you to put it in. And we go from Tuesday's open
through the following Monday's close. Here are the results for the past week. The baseline SPY down 2.97% since last Tuesday's open.
QQQ down 4.54% since last Tuesday's open.
Not great there.
However, as a panel, we beat the market up 1.64% overall. And we had two just amazing performances. One of
them, the current champion, which it's Evan. So yeah, just a grain of salt here, of course.
Now Evan tried to fade himself. He tried to pump his own bags by fading himself. So he said,
I'm going to short the 2X Lever leverage BMNR, both versions of it,
BMNG and BMNU, turned out to be like the best trade you could have possibly taken.
Both of those were up 26.5% basically. He got a 26.39% return trying to pump his own bags.
It didn't work. It worked to win the competition, but that wasn't his goal. I don't think,
I think he was trying to reverse jinx the market.
So if you are in BIM and RIA, you just blame stock market news.
Send him a DM, send him hate mail, all the above.
Shout out, Evan. We love Evan.
Second place, though, and a fantastic performance.
Just joined us up here on stage just a moment ago.
on stage just a moment ago. And we'll get around to everyone, of course, but second place, 19.71%
And we'll get around to everyone, of course.
return to shorts from Mr. Ariel himself, real simple, Ariel, LITX short 22.10% return. That
was the third best pick of the week. Should have been the best pick if we just throw Evans out the
window. Best pick of the week by far right there.
LITX short, 22.10% return.
His other pick, AXTI, 17.31% on that short as well,
giving him that 19.71% average as the market itself tanks.
Fantastic results there.
Continuing on, third place is Sam Solid. Sam Solid had two longs, ERX and TMF.
Both of those doing very well. 7.42 and 3.41 respectively gives a 5.42% return for the third
place finisher. And honorable mention, we'll throw Chris in here as well. We'll see if Chris joins us here shortly. Chris beat the market as well,
1.88% return. He had DPST and APO, both longs that both did pretty well there. There were some
other good picks sprinkled out throughout here and there. Difficult market to trade in. I'm
excited to get everyone's thoughts here. Boy, you mentioned Chris's name. He just shows up. You see
that? That's just how it works here. He heard it. He heard it mentioned Chris's name. He just shows up. You see that? That's just how it works here.
He heard it.
He heard it.
Chris just heard.
He heard his name.
He showed up there.
But beating the market as well.
And then obviously as a unit,
we're going to take credit for Evan on this one.
But we did beat the market.
Ariel absolutely crushed it though. So we're going to have Ariel kick us off today.
We'll call it a 20% return over the last week on those two picks. Wonderful
job, Ariel. Great to have you on the show again. Excited to hear. If you have any thoughts,
obviously, if you want to mention any comments on LITX or AXTI, feel free to do that. And then
I would love for you to kind of jump into your market thoughts here as we lower lows, lower highs. Lower lows, lower highs. And the market
is kind of in a weird way. And thanks for having me, first of all. In a weird way, it's just
speeding up to what we already knew was the primary trend when you are living underneath
the 50-day and you're building lower lows and lower highs. and you're running out of names that can physically carry
the market higher, that have enough market cap within the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ to actually
move things higher. And you think about the largest weighted stocks to those individual ETFs,
just living below the 200-day moving average. And that's a really big problem. Are we getting to a
place, when you think about the remaining groups that were memories and optics, and I would even
argue in some instances, the Rocket Stocks and the Mag-7, you're just losing participation
everywhere you look. Even the ITA ETF which is
the other aerospace and defense group you know not UFO and you think about Boeing and GE and RTX
and LMT I mean you're just losing groups and names left and right you're almost getting to
the point where you are a bit extended on the XOP and the XLE.
So I personally would not be shorting into the hole here. I think as I've been stating and with Nick in the room, if you want to do some shorting,
a short into declining moving averages, we've seen the failures in Palantir off of the flattening 200.
You've seen the failures in AppLovin off of the declining $50 and the $200. You've seen the failure from NVIDIA, which is a really big deal, and even the SMH more importantly as a whole, right at the 50-day and then a gap down in continuation last week.
very good. You've seen it in financials. Effectively, everywhere you look, it looks
bad out there. And then on the flip side, you're getting some of these energy stocks where you
still had crude oil itself going higher, effectively looking at maybe USO, but you
started to get a little bit of divergence with FANG and APA and Oxy and these others that just
are a little bit extended. And so again, you could be bullish
energy. I think that that's fine, but be a little bit cautious about chasing price. That's pretty
bad. And then on the flip side of that, you could be bearish software or financials or consumer
staples. You could be bearish so many things right now, but just caution to chasing
anything that has already kind of imploded. I mean, you know, things typically top on rosy
earnings and you can make that argument for Micron. You know, we know memories are fairly cyclical.
You've got incredible earnings in a tough environment and effectively
you go nowhere. And we can make that same argument for Palantir last quarter, fantastic earnings.
You gap up, but the environment that you're in and super, super rosy earnings is sometimes,
and more oftentimes than not, earnings are the best near the highs. So you start to lose prior leadership. You're
starting to lose semiconductors. You've lost financials. Healthcare looks rough. I mean,
just everywhere you look, I would be cautious before. I know some people are investors and
they'll look at this opportunity to possibly start buying themselves in. But as a trader myself,
I don't know that things just
don't meander for the next year below their 200 day. Nobody knows. And as a trader who likes to
trade momentum, whether it be to the upside or the downside, I felt that the optics, similar to
memories, same pool of capital flows, you start to get Micron pulling back. That starts to weigh on SanDisk. That starts to weigh on WDC. Obviously, you saw it with EWY, which is mostly Samsung.
And then that also is the same sort of money that is going to be leaving
some of these optics names. And what were you seeing today? Whether it was, again, Palantir
or these memories or the optics, but then what was actually
moving higher? It was your Datadog and your CrowdStrike and your Palo Alto and your Salesforce.
And even for a moment, Microsoft was pushing higher. That smells like degrossing to me more
than it smells like a rotation of money. And man, they're not making this market easy,
but it doesn't necessarily scream healthy.
And until you either get some serious capitulation, and if you looked at NAIM last week, it went up,
not down, which you would think it would have gone down. Maybe it'll be lower by the end of
this week. We'll find out. But it seems like active money managers are buying. And effectively,
if you bought over the last week, you're definitely sitting in the red.
And then energy continues to be something to lead.
So there just doesn't really feel like capitulation.
So either we're going to get capitulation and you could play that as a potential bounce,
or you're going to get a market follow through day where the market will just put in a low.
It'll run up two, three days. And then on that
fourth or fifth or sixth day, you'll get a nice pickup in volume. There'll be big breadth expansion.
There'll be a few groups that come to life. But right now, it looks like more than anything,
a lot of former leaders rolling into stage four, whether you're talking Palantir,
whether you're talking Palantir, NVIDIA, AppLovin, AVGO, that is not an optimistic look.
I don't want to be doom and gloom, but I do kind of want to report what I'm seeing.
And what I'm seeing is even more so than 2022, we saw energies make a really big move and
everything else struggle.
What it looks like here is just way more strength
than that energy sector, which is still a very small part of the S&P 500.
And if I thought about a name like ExxonMobil, which I continue to be long since December,
if you told me an ExxonMobil was a trillion dollar company, that wouldn't necessarily
surprise me, but it's not a trillion dollar company.
So I do think that maybe in time, although they may need to consolidate, energy might still be the place to be, although I don't necessarily think it's the place to be tomorrow.
So I think some patience here is warranted to kind of see where the cards may fall.
It is interesting because I feel like we're in the hole um and if we we i don't it doesn't feel
like a bottom yet that to your point there but at the same time i feel like we're we're getting
overextended overextended can stay overextended i i know all those you know monikers that that
we hear all the time but it feels like it's a really tough spot. And I know we keep,
maybe we're overusing that term a little bit, but it seems like you've been able to find some
opportunities. And when I've been just watching from my perspective, it seems like you can find
which dominoes are falling that day with the market. Because the market, you know,
obviously continuing to sell, but you're seeing like certain sectors or certain names maybe that haven't fallen yet. So obviously we saw like,
you know, Meta get, you know, really hammered in Amazon. And then you see like maybe NVIDIA
on its day and Microsoft kind of led the way. And is that kind of been your approach? Okay. Which
dominoes falling today or the next two days? That's right. That's been kind of my thinking. And again, I still don't hate a name like Micron.
I thought those earnings were awesome, but you start to live below your 50-day, and I
don't care what stock you are.
Again, it feels like degrossing, where institutions are selling their winners, and you've seen
that with, again, the memories and the optics and even an FSLY or
a Bloom Energy, but they're bouncing the names that are most beaten up, which again, smells like
degrossing because don't tell me the stocks that are acting worse are bouncing. That's just
institutional covering. And on the flip side, they're just deleveraging their book by selling
their winners and covering the names that have gotten
most beaten up. So that's kind of what it smells like to me. And we've seen this movie before where
IGV can bounce for a little bit and then ultimately it ends up going nowhere. And again,
it doesn't mean we're not in the process of bottoming, but you can just, when you're a name like AXTI and you're 13 times
its average true range above the 50-day, and then of course you get the newly minted optics bulls
telling you how important optics are for data centers, those are the same people that told you
about the memory bottleneck. Those are the same people who told you quantum, that you didn't
understand quantum and how quantum was going to change, you know, the landscape of computing. And those are the same people who told you that there
was a supply deficit in silver and gold. So really, people tend to be a little bit late to the theme,
and you get a little bit extended. And, you know, there comes a point in every trade where
it's actually more risky to hold for more upside
than it is to make sure you've completely de-risked that trade. If you own some of these
names like LITE from a hell of a lot lower or SanDisk from a hell of a lot lower, there's
nothing wrong with just holding a small piece. But at some point, you start to go vertical in
a bad market. And we all have heard probably this phrase as
well, that the leaders get shot last, that this is what today feels like. That's what the prior
couple of days on Micron feels like, where the rosiest earnings on planet Earth, but the market's
just not healthy. The leaders get taken to the woodshed last and you're even seeing a name like Apple break below
the 200. What's to stop Apple from looking like Microsoft? What's to stop Apple from looking like
Meta? What's to stop Nvidia from looking like either of those two names? And if it does,
you know, strap up because it can get a whole hell of a lot uglier. But that also doesn't mean
that this is where I'm looking to short. If I am looking to participate on the short side of the market,
don't chase the fourth, fifth, sixth down day in a row
for some of these names or into the market.
Make sure that you're playing it as a retrace
back into the declining moving averages.
We've seen this story before.
Just look at Tesla a handful of days ago.
It rallies right back into the 200, and that's where it rejects.
Look at where your PanW rejects.
It rallies right back into the
50 day and then it eventually loses it and rolls over. Applovin did the exact same thing. Palantir
did the exact same thing. And that just seems to be the playbook for now until we can start to get
some groups that are really starting to buck the market trend. And yes, there are still
opportunities out here. They're just to the side of the market that
most people don't want to play. And I think people will look past the tariff scare as not a real,
like a really brief correction because it was. And you still, you become desensitized to
that there are sometimes really lengthy with time and price corrections that take place in the market.
And, you know, from 2020, the end of 22 and on, it's effectively been, you know, peaches and cream out here.
The market's just been moving from one theme to the next, to the next, to the next.
And I don't know how many people are truly prepared for a longer drawn out correction.
I'm not saying that that's what has to happen, but it's what it feels like now, especially if you actually lose an NVIDIA into a stage four
downtrend. It just carries so much sentiment and weight for the markets, the Qs, the NASDAQ,
that it's just hard for the markets to go higher. And eventually, that kind of just starts,
you shoot first, ask questions later, kind of an environment and it can get ugly quickly. And if there's any part of a decline
that everybody wants to avoid, it's the final three days, right? If there's any part of the
big whoosh that happens, it's normally once you're oversold going to what you said, you'll get this,
you'll get this oversold, oversold, oversold. We're supposed to bounce a lot of people buying the dip and then you get the overnight gap down and it becomes a, oh shit,
we're all underwater. And you get the big whoosh for two, three days. And, and, you know, I'm
hoping we'll know that things are better when you get a piece of bad news and the whoosh or a piece
of bad news that can't take things lower.
And then that's when I'll start to really get interested
on the other side of the market, which is longs.
But on the flip side, even shorting here
feels like you're late.
Appreciate that additional commentary
from our current champion, Mr. Ariel himself,
19.71% return just over the last week.
Well done.
Great thoughts there.
Excited to see which two picks you'll have for us as we come back around in the back
half of the show here.
Let's continue around the panel and get some more thoughts here.
I was going to go to Sam Solid next.
I think he dropped off.
Let's go over to Ben at Story Trading.
Ben, haven't heard from you in a few weeks.
Excited
to get maybe your take on the market, what you've been doing, how you have been navigating things
here with the kind of the rollover sell-off. I'm just curious, where are you at? You heard
Ariel's comments there. And I know we've kind of been saying the same thing going back to the last
time I got to speak with you. We were waiting on it to break, waiting on it to break.
Well, it finally broke.
Yep.
So I've been navigating this very well, thank God.
I put a blog up on our website that describes a little bit how we did it.
I just want to look at storytrading.com.
Actually, you know what?
Let me put this morning note in here because it explains the thesis we had. I'll explain it here too, but for people who want to look at it later. Okay, there it is. Should be up in for this. And for me, it all came down to the idea here that oil over $100 is a black swan.
Okay, this has been my thesis the entire month.
And I want you to pull up either QQQ or SPY and look at a weekly chart.
This is going to be really simple to see and very instructive.
This is going to be really simple to see and very instructive.
If you look at the 50-week moving average, the 50-week moving average on QCQ or SPY,
you'll see in the past, oh, gosh, how far is that like to pass forever,
really since the great financial crisis.
Okay, oh, my God, really forever.
This 50-week moving average has been a very reliable support line. And then ultimately, by the way,
the 200-week moving average is the Never Bet Against America line. Okay. But the 50-week
moving average, we violated it exactly three times since COVID. It was the COVID crash back
in 2020. It was the 2022 bear market due to higher interest rates, and it was the
Liberation Day crash. And my reference points for oil over 100 has been the COVID crash and
Liberation Day crash. I view both of them as black swans, and I view sustained oil over $100
as a black swan. So for the last couple of weeks, I've been predicting that
the QQQ and SPY would break below the 50-week moving average. And basically, you know, it's
very simple, right? If all three are black swans, then you look at the past and you see
the trading patterns, what happens when you have a black swan. And you can see you break
the 50 and you make a pretty substantial move towards the 200-week moving average,
which is what I expect could still happen here.
So we could be just at the beginning.
In that note that I put up in the nest, you'll see I put all the different levels on the
way to the 200-week moving average.
There's some support at 550.
We hit 557 was our next support that we called out for today.
We're closing.
We're right at 557. There's a little bit of support at 550. We hit 557 was our next support that we called out for today. We're close. We're right at 557. There's a little bit of support at 550. My next swing target is 538. And then ultimately,
I think we could see a bottom at 490 to 500. But that's all dependent on oil staying over 100. So
part of this also has been a lot of geopolitical analysis. Economics is downstream of politics. And, you know, in my stock trading, I'm paying attention to news all the time, geopolitical news.
And thank God in this case maybe I had a little bit of an edge because I was born in Iran
and we left in 1979 because of the revolution there.
So I think I've had some insights into the geopolitics there,
which has given me a little bit of an edge in what I think could be happening.
But in any case, I think it's possible we could just be at the beginning of a downturn.
And again, just go look at the COVID crash candles.
the COVID crash candles, go look at the Liberation Day crash candles. As the previous speaker,
Go look at the Liberation Day crash candles.
as Ariel was saying, you know, there's definitely a chance to see some pops on the way down.
You know, often when you break a key support line like that 50-week moving average, you're
going to test the upside as resistance before you resume a big move down. This situation might be a little different, though.
I don't know.
I really don't know.
I did back off on my hedger significantly today in case we see a pop, but not necessarily.
Not necessarily are we going to see a pop.
If we do pop towards that, I think it's 573.
So not exactly at the 50-day.
There's substantial candle it's 573. So not exactly at the 50-day, there's substantial candle resistance at 573.
So if we pop to 573 on QQQ,
I'll go heavier on the hedge again.
But for me, the next targets are 550, 538,
and ultimately 490 to 500.
And that would basically almost precisely match
the patterns we saw in the COVID crash and Liberation Day crash.
But it's all contingent on oil staying above 100.
That's been my North Star, and that thesis has treated me really well.
And, you know, it's a little bit, I don't want to say arbitrary, but it's qualitative in how I chose that.
I chose that because my thesis was oil over 100 is something that's going to stay in the news in
a really big way, literally just in the news and the media. And that's something that would weigh
on people's psychology and sentiment and cause them to de-risk. All right. So that's been my
thesis. And I've been very literal about there was like one day Brent crude May contract went below
100 and we went from red alert to yellow alert for like a day or two, and it actually worked.
And markets were up for a day or two.
And as soon as we went back over 100, I've been totally in red alert expecting a breakdown of the key moving averages.
So that's where I'm at now.
Yeah, I like that.
I like the exercise you did there with the chart as well and it's it's funny
though you mentioned that me and you haven't spoke but our basic approach on the day trading has been
you know put in q es qqq spy whatever you're trading up on one side of your chart and on
the other side of your chart just put up you know oil put cl futures whatever you want and they're
very inversely
correlated right now. And we'll see. One follow-up question, just real fast, Ben,
any thought, or are you just waiting on more information for a pullback in oil or how sustained,
I used the word sustained there. Obviously, sustaining up here at these prices is catastrophic
for the global economy. Do you have any thought on how
long this sustains, or are you just playing it by ear and just saying, hey, North Star, as long as
it's up here, I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing, and the damage will continue to happen,
and if it falls back below, then I'll pivot. Yeah, I mean, a lot of this has been geopolitical
analysis for me, and just kind of knowing what I know about the players.
I did not think we'd see any kind of movement towards a ceasefire this past weekend.
Right now, Iran has a lot of the leverage here, and it would be foolish for them from their perspective to make any kind of deal.
So I fully expected no good news over the weekend into Monday.
So I was like hedged no good news over the weekend into Monday. So I was like
hedged to the max over the weekend. But, you know, I think, let me just lay out a couple quick
scenarios in terms of oil. One is if it stays high enough for long enough, you could see demand
destruction kick in, which it can start coming down.
And I don't know, at that point, some people might misinterpret it as, hey, this is a good
thing.
But dude, if you don't have any resolution with the war and oil starts coming down because
of demand destruction, then you really have to worry about maybe a severe prolonged recession.
So that's one bad news item.
Another bad news item is over the weekend,
this is crazy, I had put in my discord that I think that Trump's best move at this point
would be to, could be, to just bomb all of Iran's oil and exit stage right. And it was just so
uncanny because I put that thesis out this weekend and this morning. That's exactly what Trump said. We are, you know, Trump only has not very many good options. One is putting
ground troops in. One is basically exiting, leaving in humiliation right now, which will put
Iran in a very strong, dangerous position for the entire world if he leaves now, I think.
And the other is that's it, right? So like with those bad
options, the best of those options might be bombing the shit out of the oil and exiting
stage right to deprive Iran of money for like the next 10 years. And I'm sure he doesn't want to do
that. But right now is pushing that leverage point to try to create a rift in the leadership in Iran.
leverage point to try to create a rift in the leadership in Iran. One last stab at like a
regime change or a coup or some sort of, you know, rift there to try to get a deal with somebody
who's going to maybe take over the IRGC. That's what this pressure point's about. And I don't know
that it's going to work. And I think there is a chance that what he threatened could actually
happen. So that's something you have to watch for oil.
So, you know, other than that, if we just have the status quo and a dragged on war,
et cetera, et cetera, again, just watch for that possibility that oil starts going below
100, not because of supply chain disruptions getting solved and the strain of rumors getting
solved, but because of demand destruction.
It's not a good spot we're in right now.
Appreciate those thoughts, Ben.
Excited to get some picks from you this week.
We'll come back around.
Let's keep going around the panel here.
Sam, go your direction next.
Any thoughts to throw into the mix here
Any thoughts to throw into the mix here or anything you want to agree with, disagree
or anything you want to agree with, disagree with?
with? What's going on in your world?
What's going on in your world?
I mean, I did notice earlier that IGV was green today, but not like a massive dead cat
bounce of IGV. I do agree with Ariel that it was probably more of a short covering,
profit taking on the short side than anything.
Taking the socks down as much as 4% or 5% today, like that's pretty wild considering that
one, it's already red year to date, but two, like this was basically leading the market up the whole
time. You look at the Sox ETF, the top like 30% holdings is basically AMD, uh, applied materials,
uh, Micron, NVIDIA. And those were down pretty decent today, which is ultimately what's
bringing down the ETF. And these were the leaders in the year. We've been the leaders for a long
time. And that trade is being basically taken off the table, which is not really a good thing you
want to see when it comes to the stock market. But more importantly, what I did notice today
was actually XLE, which is the energy ETF, energy sector ETF for SP500, actually was red today pretty considerably.
It went from pretty green today to pretty red.
And that, of course, has been nonstop breakneck rally for the last couple of months.
So it's understandable you get some profit taken there.
But oil did close higher today, which is actually pretty interesting to see
are pretty interesting to see because you would think that'd be like somewhat one-to-one related
because you would think that'd be somewhat one-to-one related there.
there. If we do get much more weakness when it comes to the stock market, I'm probably going to
look to initiate maybe a long position, but I don't want to buy XLE over here. I'd rather wait
a little bit. However, if what Ben was saying with the demand destruction when it comes to oil,
to be true, that would definitely negatively impact the energy trade. So if I were to put
on a trade on energy,
I would probably set a stop loss because I don't want to be back holding this. So the market does
come back up and everything else pulls down that's energy related. But you're not surprising to see
performance chasing when it comes to the market, things that are working. What's been working,
actually, memory, optics trading, so on, was just massively deleveraged today. So definitely not looking to enter those.
I did have some semiconductor stocks that I was long for a swing trade.
And I actually got stopped on Marvell today.
I think I was like about 2% down from my entry and I was acting pretty well the other week.
But the breakdown we saw in semiconductors did stop me out of that trade. So I'm not looking to initiate positions where I'm not going to be crazy long some positions. I'm only looking to longer strengthen the market like this. Right
now, I'm not really seeing much strength and not really consistent strength in the market other
than energy. Honestly, your dividend stocks are going to be doing well in this environment because
those are more attributed to safety stocks. So I would think that those will continue to do well
as long as the market does have some bearish themes. But seeing those sell off too is probably not a good thing to see in the market because
now you're going to start seeing people taking off winners before they actually do fall.
So I'm not really looking at today as a massive buy the dip time.
I don't see any capitulation on the table.
If anything, looking through my feed, I see a lot of people very bullish thinking this
is the bottom, whatever it is.
We haven't lost that hope yet.
I mean, even seeing Bill Ackman with a tweet that he posted last night,
which is pretty funny because that actually did exuberate more confidence
than anything with Bill Ackman.
And I don't think we're necessarily going to reach a bottom
if Bill Ackman's that confident.
I want to see that five, six paragraph long tweet
where he's basically complaining about everything.
I mean, I don't even know why we haven't seen that tweet at this point
because his fund is getting smacked right now, down 20% plus year to date.
And personally speaking, I don't know why someone wants someone to manage their portfolio
of basically MAG 7 stocks and pay in 2 and 20 when you can just do it on your own.
But moreover, you do see a lot of deleveraging when it comes to Cathie Wood.
And a lot of that is probably not because Cathie Wood's trying to trade or anything.
It's probably because he's getting a lot of redveraging when it comes to Cathie Wood. And a lot of that is probably not because Cathie Wood's trying to trade or anything. It's probably because he's getting a lot of redemptions
on the table. I mean, if you have most of her fund invested in a lot of high beta stocks
and people start pulling out their money, well, she's going to have no choice but to sell some
shares. So that's probably a lot of what you're seeing over there, even as money stocks she's
invested in her fund are continuing to go down. So I don't think this is, I really don't think
this is like an event where we're going to get a V-shaped bottom.
And Tom Lee did talk on CNBC today
in the market close.
I did play that during the stream.
And, you know, I like Tom Lee.
He's a cool dude and everything.
But I don't like it when people say
that we're like 90% done with our drawdown
or maybe like we're close to our drawdown
or this is the bottom
or you should buy now because it's going to be a V-shaped rally, you're going to miss the bottom.
Like the one thing that has helped me reduce the volatility curve in my portfolio has been
not trying to call the bottom. And not trying to call the bottom is way less stressful, not only
to your portfolio, but also your mental capital, because you're always worrying like, oh, is this
the bottom? Is this the bottom? You're going to look at every single 50%, 2% rally and thinking, like,
that was the bottom,
so let me just go buy it now.
Like, I will wait for the recovery to happen.
And these moving averages
that are sloping down right now,
the moving averages that are falling
like a knife right now,
could be trading above those moving averages
while that's the 500 is 10% lower.
And if that happens,
then maybe I'll probably be a buyer.
But until then,
I don't see how this is going to be resolved
anytime soon from a technical
perspective.
Like I'd rather not buy calls on the leaders right now because the leaders right now is
basically your risk off trade.
If we do get some sort of recovery, there are some software stocks I do want to buy
and some leaders that I would like to add to.
But right now, I'm like 17% cash.
I'm just chilling right now.
I'm not really someone who likes to liquidate the entire portfolio and, I'm like 17% cash. I'm just chilling right now. I'm not really someone
who likes to liquidate the entire portfolio and wait for things to recover or anything. I usually
stay invested. And in this game of investing, you have to sit and draw down if you want to be a
long-term investor. If you're someone who's swinging your portfolio, then fine. Yeah,
that makes sense that if that's going to be part of your risk tolerance, you get stopped at trade
and so on.
But if you're someone who wants to hold a stock for 10 years, like Amazon or something,
like I just don't see, well, 10 years might be a little bit shorter, but if you're someone who wants to like hold Apple or something or Amazon or Microsoft or Meta or whatever
for 10 years, for 20 years, 30 years, like I don't see how you could try to time the
market like that.
Because you're going to be getting these pullbacks.
You're going to get bear markets.
You're going to get corrections and stuff.
It never makes sense to me for someone who's invested in like a 401k to liquidate their
entire 401ks because they think we're not going to see the new all-time highs for another
two or three years.
Like, how do you know that?
If you knew that, then you would probably be making a lot more money in a stock market
than worrying about buying Microsoft or Meta.
You probably want to start thinking
about things that you want to buy
versus wait until we get there
and buy the first thing you get your hands on.
Like, if you don't have that list of what you want to buy
when we are at certain levels in the stock market
where it starts to recover,
you might be running around with your head off.
I mean, I already have my list I want to buy,
but am I executing on it yet?
However, when the markets do recover,
I do have things that I do want to buy. But nevertheless, my long-term portfolio that I
will continue to add to, small amounts, slow dollar cost averaging over a long period of time,
I'm not touching that. Why would I liquidate my portfolio if my goal is for decades. That's the thing I think people might be putting
a lot of emphasis onto. But if you are a short-term trader, you are putting a swing trade,
and you go below your stop loss and sell it. I think probably the worst thing that I've seen
is when people enter a position late thinking that the bull market's going to continue ferociously.
And then they see it come back down further.
And they're like, oh, well, this is trading cheaper than it was before.
Like, for example, Micron, right?
These memory stocks, they have very good earnings growth.
They have very good top line growth.
They're in bottlenecks.
Yes.
But whenever the market tops like this, like that's when the earning, that's when these
stocks are so cheap when the market tops like this, like that's when the earning, that's when these stocks are so cheap,
when the market tops.
And then you won't know why it's pulling back.
And then you have that next quarter
where the earnings growth actually decelerates massively.
And then the analysts need to start downgrading
their forecast in the stock.
And that's a shitty place to be
because when that happens,
you don't know if they're going to re-accelerate.
And at a cyclical company like Micron and Memory, like Memory is the cyclical semiconductor
sector of semiconductors, which are already cyclical.
I don't see why you'd want to plant yourself in there thinking that's the bottom.
Like, fine, you'll probably miss the bottom or whatever pullback we're getting right now
if we do continue the all-time highs.
But we could probably go back to Micron being under 200 bucks. We were just at $480 just the
other week. And we're sitting here at $320. And we're down 10% today when the market is basically
down like 50 basis points. That will continue to happen in the long term if this memory cycle
is clearly over. is micron just duke
is is that duke just you know just give it away
wait what i know you had money on yukon yesterday you somehow or another
yukon you didn't watch the duke yukon game somebody oh no i thought i thought i didn't
you know for some reason it's The Micron is just a Duke.
Just it had it.
It was winning.
For some reason, dude.
Oh, first of all, that was the craziest freaking game.
I didn't see the whole game.
I just saw, like, the last day.
And I was like, oh, my goodness.
Like, that is probably the worst way to go down.
Especially when you could have just freaking chilled with the ball and whatever.
But you have to be so damn aggressive.
Like, I was just like, why?
You're already winning.
There's only a few seconds left in the call.
I feel like there's traders doing that right now
in this market where it's just been strong.
You're up 98% win probability, whatever.
And you just push it too hard at the end
and you blow it.
There's a parallel to the market for you.
Sam, I appreciate it.
Go ahead.
I appreciate your thoughts there.
I want to make sure we get around to the entire panel.
Sam, I'm excited to see what you pick.
We'll call you second place,
even though you're really third place because Evan,
but Evan was trying to fade himself,
so does he really count?
But 5.5% return basically last week on your two picks.
Fantastic job.
Sam, just to be respectful of anyone's time,
we don't have a show or anything on the back of this today. So we have all the time in the world willing to go as long as we need to
to make sure we cover everything today and get everyone's thoughts up here. If you are in the
audience, make sure you are following all these great speakers and panelists up here that we have
each and every Monday evening, sharing their time, sharing their thoughts, their expertise with us.
We appreciate that. And of course, not financial advice. Make sure any of the picks, any of the pieces that are
given here, you just use that as a launching point for your own due diligence. Trade your own plan.
Each trader up here has a different approach and style for the markets as always. Appreciate you,
Sam. Let's go over to Nick Drendel next. Nick Drindle, curious if you have any thoughts to add to the mix here around the market itself.
Yeah, thanks for having me. Really quick, I can stay around. So if anyone needs to leave
and wants to go first, I'm fine with that. If anyone wants to jump ahead of me.
Yeah. And also say, if anybody does have a time crunch, I want to be respectful for all the
speakers up here. You can throw up your hand. I can come to you next.
You can drop me your picks. You can go ahead and get your picks in when I come around to you.
Just be respectful of the time here.
Let's go over to Chris, and then we'll come back to Nick.
Chris, what's up?
Yeah, man. I've been just tracking everything that's been happening from a geopolitical lens just to see where we are in all of this.
from a geopolitical lens just to see like where we are in all of this. I can just say one thing.
I have a feeling that we are pivoting, at least the administration's pivoting, because
I think one of the earlier speakers said it. There's not a lot of good options left for the
Trump administration. They've clearly lost the initiative on the domestic population,
has basically said, we're done. we're not supporting this. And,
you know, midterm election years are coming. At the end of the day, he does have a self-preservation
drive that is very strong. So that's number one. I think the initial goal was regime change, but
after about, you know, two weeks, three weeks of this, I don't think that the regime is,
you know, ready to collapse just yet. There's a lot of mechanisms that these guys put in place
to basically see that they would be able to retain control.
And the administration did not have the initiative to...
Well, I mean, the other thing is, like,
you also have the other countries out there,
like the Europeans, which are our traditional allies,
they're also not backing this, right? So in this scenario, number one, you look like the aggressor.
You don't have your public support. Your Congress, who are supposed to be funding all of this stuff,
there's already like senators and House members that are not willing to support this. So you don't
have a lot of options there. And I think that one of the key mistakes that, in my opinion, the administration made was
you gave timetable. The minute you give a timetable to any foe, all you're doing is
basically saying, hey, listen, we just need to outlast you. So these guys, in terms of resilience,
that is going to put that in there saying, look, the Americans, they're already trying to get one
foot out the door before they even put one door, one foot on the ground. So one of the things that
they've been trying to do is go to the U.S. into making the mistake of trying to put boots on the
ground. I think that would be probably one of the biggest mistakes because we are unprepared for this.
If we were preparing for a ground invasion from the start, we would have had MEUs like the Marine
Expeditionary Units,
Army, everyone on standby ready to go.
I think this is one of those times
where we are trying to bluff our way out of this
by sending Marines over there,
saying we're going to destroy your infrastructure,
we're going to do this and that.
And the Iranians are like, go ahead.
We don't believe you.
And I don't think the president,
as far as I can tell,
has enough of support behind him to take this all the way, in which case now everyone is looking for off ramps.
But they're trying to do it while trying to save face.
You know, the U.S. does not want to just up and leave.
Right. If you up and leave, that basically shows that you're a pretty weak country.
country and now the GCZ country are going to say long term, could we really trust the United States?
And now the GCC country is going to say long term.
Could we really trust the United States?
On the other hand, the Iranians, they can't just give up because once again, they have their own
situation with their people willing to put them to the sword if they're weak. So this, in my
opinion, is probably going to be more of a de-escalatory process where each side is, of course, going to put a lot
of rhetoric out there, but they're working on trying to come up with finer points and deal
terms that both can survive and live with. So as an example, if you look about two weeks ago,
the conversation was, we're not talking, we'll never talk, ceasefire is not on our brains.
Now everyone is sending out like, oh, here's a 15 point proposal.
They counter where here's a five point proposal. And I think we'll land somewhere in the middle,
in which case now you'll you'll each side has two big asks. I think from the from the U.S.
side and quote unquote, the Israeli side, I think the biggest ask is denuclearization to the point where this is not a problem for the next 10 years.
From the Iranian side, it's the sanctions relief.
They need sanctions relief because their economy is completely trashed.
One of the reasons why, and I know a lot of people, I mean, and maybe story trading, you could probably chime in.
the government because of like, oh, we want freedom and freedom for expression and everything
else. A lot of what drove people to the streets from what I'm hearing is that the economy just
got really, really bad. People can live with certain repressions, but one thing they can't
live without is food and water and shelter. And
that's one of the things that Iran is facing a lot of problems with. So I think the Iranians,
they're trying to get as much as possible from these negotiations right now. And the U.S. is
trying to give up, trying to give as little as possible. So that's why we're seeing right now
this deployment of Marines
and everything else, the rhetoric, blah, blah, blah.
Like I said, each side, we're no longer playing a chess game anymore.
I think in terms of chess, the Iranians won.
But in terms of poker, that's where we are right now.
Like strategically, the Iranians, the goal, initial goal was regime change.
I don't think regime change is coming.
At least it won't come in the form of a US
invasion. There's still probably an opportunity where there is some chance of internal uprisings.
But as far as this being done with a military option, I think that is pretty much out the door.
And by the way, in my opinion, putting boots on the ground right now
would be making the biggest mistake of the Trump administration's political career. And I'm pretty
sure for all that he is, he's a survivor. He understands the value of surviving. So if he
wants to survive this current situation, he is going to have to back off. Now, I know some people
thinking that, yes, the US would take out the Iranian oil infrastructure.
The problem is the Iranians would end up taking out to the Saudis
and the UAE that infrastructure,
in which case now you'll get $200 oil
because unlike closing up shipping,
taking out actual key infrastructure
ends up causing worldwide shortages
of trying to replace
20 million barrels of oil. So I think both sides right now, they're in the bluffing stage,
which leads me to believe it's probably at the top of the bell curve when it comes to
where we are in this. And I think over time, we'll be able to deescalate. The one key caveat though is that unlike the Liberation Day flip that we saw,
that was under the control of the Trump administration.
This is not under his control.
Now you need two people to tango.
So as much as everyone wants Trump to taco, he can't just taco on this one
because you basically need the Iranians to ICO at the same time.
I don't know if ICO is a real word, but whatever.
So that is where we are in all of this.
Or at least that's what I'm seeing anyway.
I'll just, since you
asked me,
I'll give my opinion on the
yeah, the
protests.
I think the final straw was the economy being really bad.
But there is a dispute what percentage is against the regime.
I mean, there are numbers as high as 90 percent.
And, you know, what all started this in terms of Trump coming on the scene was the massacre that happened,
the protests, you know, resulting in all
those massacres. And, you know, I think, look, a lot of Iranians in and outside of Iran were
really rooting for this war, and I think they still are, actually. So from what I'm hearing
on the streets over there, like when the bombs stop falling, they get really worried.
It's a really bad situation for the Iranian people because if there's not regime change, they are going to come down so hard on the civilian population after this.
It's just a tragedy.
And just a side political point that I hear nobody talking about is thank God for the Second Amendment, man, because what
happened in Iran can never, ever happen in America in terms of the government shooting the protesters.
And I'm like shocked all the Second Amendment proponents of the United States are not making
this point. I mean, this is the proof, the evidence that, you know, why we need a Second
Amendment. And, you know, poor people in Iran, man.
It's a terrible, terrible situation for them if there's not going to be regime change.
Listen, I'm in the airport, so I can't talk too much,
but I just wanted to say, I don't know if you have family over there or friends over there, but good luck to them.
I hope everything works out okay.
I hope this thing gets settled in a way where people are not killed.
And I hope anyone that's over there, hope they're safe, all right?
Sorry to hear all of this happen, bro. People are not killed. And I hope anyone that's over there, hope they're safe. All right. Sorry.
Sorry to hear all of this happened, bro.
And I do have some family there.
Great back and forth.
Appreciate the takes and thoughts there from everyone.
Continue around.
Vegas.
I don't believe we've heard from you.
Let's go your direction.
Then we'll hit Nick and Michael.
All right.
Hi, everybody.
And happy Easter and Passover to everyone celebrating this week.
Big holiday.
So, listen, this market is not looking too pretty.
And, you know, it's a lot of volatility and obviously very sensitive to all this geopolitical commentary.
You know, right now, I think cash is good.
You know, you don't have to trade nonstop.
And I think, in my opinion as well, you know, if you like to invest, okay, I don't think anyone should be scared to invest because,
you know, Bill Ackman sent a tweet the other day and he was talking about how,
you know, one of the best times in a long time is to buy quality and just ignore the bears. And I
really believe that wholeheartedly, that if you can buy some quality stocks, I believe that history will be very clear. There are some very true
generational buys at hand. And I think there'll be some great opportunities for people that have
that mindset. Because the thing is, if you're not investing, when the chips are down, you cannot
possibly be ahead when they go up, and they will back up and you know a lot of the drivers like
30 percent of the drivers are kind of underwater you know and if you really look at that I don't
think really Wall Street doesn't really get like what is going to be happening next and I think
the equation can change uh over time I mean if you really look at, for example, you know, people talk about Tesla,
these robo taxis, you know, that's going to turn idle cars into earnings assets, which means that
the same car sitting in your driveway today goes from liability to potential income stream at the
touch of a button. And a lot of these other companies are not going to have that, you know,
if you actually bought $1,000 into Ford back when
Tesla IPO'd, you'd have like only $1,650 today. But if you put $1,000 in Tesla, when that IPO'd,
you have like over $2.27 million. And we're talking like a 226,900% return. So I think
longer term, you know, with all this noise happening, because it is noise. I mean, it's not noise we like, but, you know, you have to take advantage if you are able to,
because the market is not going to ring a bell when it's safe to get back in.
And I think that is the biggest up days, you know, to cluster around the biggest down days,
because you will miss these opportunities.
And so don't have the FOMO,
but I think it's good for people that have the long-term mindset to take advantage of these
drawdowns because, you know, everyone whose dollar cost averaging into current conditions will
undoubtedly be shown to have made a fortune when the dust settles, especially if they're also reinvesting.
So I think sometimes, you know, you could step aside if your financial footing demands it,
but history does show beyond any shadow of a doubt that you want to stay engaged if your plan is
sound and if you got some, you know, obviously emotional control and also
obviously discipline. And I feel that investors who win, they don't try to dodge every storm.
They try to build their portfolios because they will be the ones who will sail through it.
So, you know, I think if you look at the math too, like I've looked at the math, you know,
over the last 50 years, you know, the S&P has had a negative quarter one 18 times.
And people have already forgotten that just last year it dropped 4.6% in Q1 and finished up 16.4% for the year.
And back in 2003, the S&P fell by 3.6 in Q1 and turned in 26.4 for the year. So after every 10% correction over the last 50 years,
investors who bought into the dip 11% returns within a year and 37% within three years. So I
think people need to take that data and like process it in your brain and let it sink in.
So I don't feel that it's, you know, a great time, always a great time
to always, it never feels like it's a great time to invest, but the history does show that it almost
always is. And I think the right stocks, the right tactics and the right perspective can definitely
make the difference. So, you know, it just depends like what kind of trader are you? Do you like
long-term? You don't like long-term, you know, do you get nervous and panic when things pull back? Then obviously you're just going to be in cash mode
and that's nothing wrong with that at all. But I think that there will be some great generational
wealth-making opportunities. If you buy, we have to buy the right companies, okay? You just can't
randomly just pick anything that looks good. You have to really pick good, solid companies that are
here for the long haul
and that are going to pay you and we know like even any like any of those max sevens to me
are so attractive so you know that's just my my thoughts on uh what i see and uh you know trying
to take advantage of some uh you know dollar cost averaging like my largest holding for me personally
is nvidia and uh you know i'm just you know i like you know i don't averaging, like my largest holding for me personally is Nvidia. And, uh, you know, I'm just, you know, I like, you know, I don't love that it's trading right
here, but you know what? I'd like to see it go lower because I'd like it to go down. Like,
even if it can go down like another 5%, then it's going to look a little more attractive to me right
now. Uh, but you know, it's only down today. Like, uh, it was down not much, like 1.6. It's not, it's not screaming at me to buy some more.
So I'm just waiting and I'll sit and wait. And if the opportunity comes where I can buy more of it,
then I definitely will. But for now it's not, I don't really care that it's down at this price.
It's not screaming to me to add more. I'd like to see it go lower. So, you know, I'm just going to
be patient and, uh, sitting in a lot of cash here and ready because, you know, I'm just going to be patient and sitting in a lot of cash here
and ready because, you know, you have to be ready when you want to take that opportunity. We want
to see the action. We want to see things over the 200 day. You want to see follow three days. We
want to see a power trend in the market, especially those of you that follow like investors business
daily. They talk about power trends. And the thing is that we will have those days. So it's very important right now to
be defensive and be patient because you want to preserve that capital for those days where you can
load the boat and really, really bank. So, you know, again, just be patient, be defensive and,
you know, ride these waves. So right now I you've got to be a little versatile as a trader.
You know, if you don't like to be a bear like me,
you'll have to do different strategies like hedging and stuff like that.
And that's okay, you know.
So I don't mind flipping sides temporarily.
But I know long term, you know, things will get resolved.
Things will, you know, be back to normal.
And right now, it's just i just
i just look at it as like all noise and i'm looking to see hopefully that there'll be some
obviously resolution obviously monitoring these oil prices uh is what's important i mean obviously
it's a very high stakes poker game where uh trump is obviously betting that maximum credible leverage
uh wants to prevent worse problems obviously obviously, with the nuclear Iran, endless proxy bleeding.
But, you know, right now, we want to see, you know, with these talks, you know, Iran
is hurting, though, they are hurting.
The truth is, we need some resolution.
And like what was mentioned earlier by Ben, you know, will the president just go out there
and just bomb them up completely and just get this over and done with?
So, you know, it's very difficult to negotiate with this regime. Usually, they don't want to agree
to all terms that are put on the table. They've already been presented 15 conditions. They're not
really in agreement with all of them. They want some, you know, changes. But it's never going to
be perfect. And I don't think that this is a regime that an agreement can be met with.
And I think if you want to close down or slow down the Straits of Hormuz, it's already affecting, obviously, trade and things like that.
So I don't think that the president will tolerate this.
I think he's got a zero tolerance for games.
I think right now he's letting things play out and see what it does. But I think by April 6 next week, we should have a much
more clear understanding of where he's going to take this to the next level, because I think it's
going to be to the point where enough is enough. And just, you know, bombs way, like just clear
this up. And you know what, I want to see the Iranian people free. I want to see them, you know,
living and breathing and enjoying life, they have suffered enough and they deserve to
be happy and be free. So I hope to see that for the Iranian people. I have so many Iranian friends
and I just love them and I just want them to be happy and I want nothing for them except the best
life that they so deserve to have. So that's my two cents on where I think things are going to go.
And I hope it's going to be all for the goodness of the people.
And hopefully they can be free once and for all.
Appreciate those words, Vegas.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts there and the kind words, of course, as well.
I think most of us can definitely agree with a lot of that. Nick Drindle, let's come back around
to you. Then we'll hit Michael Nouse and then we'll get into some picks. Sounds good. I'm going
to share a couple charts in the nest. First two are going to be very bearish. Third one, not as
bearish. But let me cover some of the bearish stuff first.
IWO, this is the growth stocks of the Russell 2000.
And we had topped in February of 2021.
That was when everyone was just making tons and tons and tons of money.
It was so easy.
And eventually the market for the growth stocks topped at that point. And we never took that high out again until recently,
either end of last year, beginning of this year.
And I was very bullish because of that,
because you have a five-year base, all this pent-up energy.
This isn't inflation adjusted, obviously,
but you finally break out and it's just immediately a failed breakout.
And now we're under the 50-week line on IWO.
So from failed moves comes fast moves.
And we just had a failed move higher.
And on a very, very long-term chart, that's pretty disgusting.
The second thing that I see that longer term makes me think that this could
be a much larger correction or bear market is the top based in 2021 and 2022, like the beginning of
that year. There's like eight to 10 weeks of chopping sideways. I remember I got pretty
bullish right at the start of 2022. There was one one day where I put on a nice NVIDIA size trade
and then that got taken out the next day
and then we just started the bear market.
But it really was only like eight to 10 weeks
of chopping sideways at that top
where the NASDAQ from October 10th character change bar
till where we are now,
this is a significant topping pattern.
Pair that with inflation
that was already getting out of control
before the oil and gas,
already 50% above target.
And then you add oil prices spiking now.
We've had no job creation
over the past like year and a half.
So everything that like theomers always talk about,
it is there, but now we're starting to see the market react to stuff like that.
And for me, I'm a price and volume guy. I like to trade the technicals. Big, big picture. I don't
try to take myself too seriously because I think trying to predict the future tomorrow is hard enough. Trying to
predict in three years is, I think, impossible, but maybe I'm just not smart enough to do that.
But either way, I know the trading style that fits with my personality the best.
And that's just taking things day by day. But big picture-, we're seeing Nvidia potentially into a stage four. We've
already lost financials, semiconductors, everything Ariel said earlier, I agree with. We're in the
same discord. So of course, we're going to be on the same page there. But one thing I want to
put out there is the timing of bearish sentiment versus bearish positioning can be very, very tricky. So even in the 2022
bear market, we had five rallies over 10% off the lows that went on to make new lows.
And if you're starting to, like, say you're just starting to feel bearish last Wednesday or last
Thursday when we really started to crack to the downside.
That's fine because there was enough leadership holding in together that maybe we could start
to turn around like we had a quick flush under the 200 day and that could have been a failed
move lower and then we go higher.
But then really Wednesday was when the lead or sorry, Thursday was when the leaders got
cracked.
They followed through
on on Friday we lost semiconductors on Friday and then more follow through to the downside for all
those higher beta names today so at this point like putting on new short exposure right here
if you're doing that you're betting on the national market crash which markets crash in
oversold territories so like this is an environment where you might an actual market crash, which markets crash in oversold territories.
So like this is an environment where you might see a market crash.
But the probability that the market actually crashes before an oversold bounce into declining
moving averages and more like stage analysis type trading, it's very, very rare.
So at least for me, like the time to get positioned was last week until Wednesday, maybe a little
bit on Thursday.
But now you're just riding your shorts down into the panic.
Just like when we were talking about silver or like the quantum schemes, when those were
going parabolic, I just kept saying, if you're going to short these, you have to stay under
the Daily View app, at least get today's price action on your side before you start to trade against the major emotional push.
So when Silver was squeezing, everyone was super bullish, right?
And the people that weren't super bullish kept on shorting, getting stopped out, shorting had stopped out.
But then once price cracked under View app and stayed heavy, that's when the run was over.
So if you are short, and I'm short ARKK, I've been saying just dark and chill. It's a very
easy way to trade in this market, but I'm also short like AVGO and a handful of other gross names.
But I'm looking for an extension like we got today, but then price action getting back over the Daily View app, that's a great time to cover some shorts.
And if you want to play an oversold bounce, that's your line in the sand.
Once you get over the Daily View app, that could be your entry.
And then you want to manage your risk against that Daily View app.
Because everything bad will happen to you if you're going long under the Daily View app.
All the panic continues.
The foreselling continues.
Everyone who bought the dip is going to feel under pressure until you get over that point.
So at least have one day of price action showing you that we've been washed out.
And to Ariel's point earlier, if that could happen on a news failure, that's even better.
Ariel's point earlier, if that could happen on a news failure, that's even better.
If you look back at 2022, the day that Russia actually invaded Ukraine, put boots on the ground, we gapped down 3.5%.
We closed up 3.5% that day or 2.5%, something like that.
It was a 7% range.
So we're looking for bad news that the market can't go any lower on.
And once that happens and price stays above the daily view app,
you can play an oversold bounce.
And I think that's really the next step in this market.
I don't think we'll crash.
That's always a possibility at this point.
But it's still less likely to me.
I think we get a gap down, some type of bad news that gets bought up.
And then over the next couple of weeks, then we get rallies into declining moving averages.
Then your best risk reward spots are on the short side, uppercutting and failing,
resistance gaps, declining moving averages, previous highs, stuff like that.
stuff like that. But on a bigger picture, one thing that I've... I watched the Jim Ropel
interview with TraderLion this weekend. And what he talked about was you need to define
your self-worth outside of the market. Because in a good market, everyone's making money.
Everyone feels great about themselves. We're all talking to our friends. Hey, I figured this
trading thing out. And then when the market environment changes
and gets more difficult,
if you're still assigning your value
to how you're doing in the market
and the market is super shitty like this,
it's gonna put a lot of pressure on you.
You're probably gonna be down in the dumps.
And at least I know myself,
when I'm emotionally like that,
that opens up a whole bunch of
tail risk for me to make dumb position sizing, adding to losers, not taking stops and protecting
against that tail risk as a trader, trying to put in a 30 year career.
That is the most important thing.
So if that is you where you've had a bad year here, you gave back a lot of money, take a
step back, slow way, way down.
Use this time in a horrible market to improve your edges,
your screening, your journaling, all that stuff.
I said it before, but that is going to pay the dividends
once the market turns back up, and then you'll make a killing.
But you have to survive these bad markets
in order to make a lot of money on the upside.
Appreciate your thoughts, Nick.
Always great hearing your voice on these shows each and every Monday.
For those that just tuned in, the entire space is recorded as always.
So if you missed any of the great thoughts shared so far in this first hour of the show,
you will be able to listen back to any of that once we get closed up for the day.
Going a little bit longer than normal today, which I think is fantastic.
I just want to say I appreciate all the panelists up here sharing their thoughts and different approaches to the market with us.
Words of wisdom, kind of breakdown, insights, all of the above.
We appreciate all of them.
And we have Michael Nouse up here back on the show.
Great to have you back, sir.
Curious if you've got any thoughts
that you want to throw into the mix
before we come around and start doing some picks.
Oh, it's good to be back.
I think a lot of things were covered already.
I liked a lot of what Nick said and Vegas said.
Everything always feels like shit when the market is in a scenario like this. But,
you know, I liked a lot of what Vegas said is, you know, if you zoom out and you look back,
eventually, unless it's the end of capitalism, right, things come back. And I'm just,
I'm just the old man here to tell you stories. But when I was trading in 2008,
2020, and it's a lot of the same stuff. And then
I also wanted to pick on Nick's point as well, talking about these massive rallies that you can
get, even if we are going into a bear market, and even if things are going to be shitty, a lot of
people think the only way to make money in these scenarios are too short. But you go back and study
the dotcom bubble, a lot of people say, oh, the bubble
crashed and the market just like, you know, fell, makes it seem like in three days, the market fell
like 50%. But no, there was multiple 100% corrections on the way down, like huge rallies,
20, 20, 30, 40% off the bottom, multiple of. And same with 2020. If you just want to go back that far and
look at that chart, every time things get a little bit stretched and a little bit oversold,
you get these huge bounces. And those are tradable bounces. And those are where I think
the easier trades are than even trying to find these shorts. It's just a different kind of trade.
It's not a buying breakouts anymore. It's more of a mean reversion
and looking for stuff that's really, really stretched,
which I know doesn't sit well with a lot of people,
but it is a perfectly valid strategy.
I have as a systems trader,
I have a handful of systems that are just that.
They're buying the falling knife
that people are so worried about.
But like with anything, if you have a plan, if you have a stop loss, if you know when
you're wrong, mean reversion has actually a really good win rate.
A lot of my, you know, some of my trend following systems have like a 30, 40% win rate and that's
And mean reversion can have 60, 70% win rates.
But what you're trading and what you need to make sure is that if you're
doing mean reversion, you're quick to the exit, right? If you're trading counter trend,
you're doing the exact opposite of people who are trading breakouts and breakdowns. You are
sacrificing a huge risk reward in exchange for a very high win rate and vice versa. And this isn't
just me, you can study all of the great hedge funds
and their trading philosophies.
Trend following has a low win rate, great risk reward.
Mean reversion has a really great win rate,
but like a one-to-one or even worse risk reward,
which is fine, right?
Being right 70% of the time
with a one-to-one risk reward ratio is fantastic,
but you just need to not get greedy, I guess, when that bounce comes
in. So I'm just looking at I've got this little temperature gauge that I call it that I've been,
I've been testing and it just has pretty much every breath indicator and most strength indicators
that you possibly can. And I've tested this thing over over 40 years of what would happen,
you know, investing more
when it's everything super bullish and vice versa.
And we only have four of 14 things showing bullish.
Now, that's not only bad, right?
It's earned cautionary weeks ago.
And that but now it's, you know, everything is looking horrible.
And that to me is almost to the point
where we are looking for a kind of a short-term bounce.
So I wrote something on Friday about how I bought Friday.
And, you know, I'm going to hold for a little bit,
but there's more and more of these very classic mean reversion indicators,
again, with 60, 70% win rates that are starting to flash.
So that's kind of where my brain is currently,
saying that we are a little bit overstretched.
Everybody is a little bit down in the dumps.
Sentiment, however you want to measure it,
seems in the toilet.
Fear and greed indicator from CNN,
although that has absolutely no sentiment in it.
If you're going to quote the fear and greed indicator,
please scroll down and read
that it's just a technical analysis thing.
That is very bearish, right?
Everything looks horrible.
Makes me think that we're probably in the area of a short-term bounce.
And that is tradable, again, as long as you have the same game plan.
And by short-term bounce, I don't mean V-bottom screaming to all-time highs.
But maybe we get back into the 650s 660s on the spy or something
like that so you know it means if that's not your game playing mean reversion if that's if you don't
have a system for that if it makes you feel uncomfortable seems like a real good time to
either you know take a couple day trades here there to keep yourself engaged or go it spring's
coming right go for a walk hang out in cash know
that this too shall pass like everything does and eventually the kind of breakout you know momentum
style trading that everyone loves so much will come back it's just not going to be i think quickly
louise yamada who is one of the og's CMTs, the greatest technical analysts of all times,
she came up with a saying probably 50 years ago, which was the bigger the damage, the longer the
need for repair, right? And not a whole, we're not even down 10% on the spot. I'm not saying,
this is not a whole lot of damage, but it doesn't, like a lot of people were saying,
this doesn't feel V-bottomy the way it did before.
But even though we might not scream back to all-time highs,
there's nothing stopping us from putting a pretty sizable bounce here.
So that's more or less what I'm looking at over the next week or so.
It's just some sort of bounce, whether it's a dead cat bounce or not.
No one will know till after the fact,
but I'm eyeing things to buy from
to get a little bit of exposure back as someone who's sitting more or less in cash.
Great to have your thoughts back on the show, Michael. Excited to see what
you'll be picking. I'm kind of in that same camp as you. I mean, I see, obviously,
you'll be picking. I'm kind of in that same camp as you. I mean, I see obviously a long
consolidation, kind of a distribution type of top, and then now an extension to the downside.
Feels a little overdone. I was just actually telling Sam Solid that a little bit. I was like,
it feels just a little overdone, but I don't want to be early to anything. So I'm happy to wait,
but I do love seeing those big corrective bounces, those rubber band snapbacks, even in a bear market territory if you want to go there as well.
All right, Ben, your hand went up.
I know we're a little bit over on time here, so I'll just jump right over to you.
Yeah, sorry.
If you don't mind, I have to be somewhere.
I was supposed to leave at six.
I just wanted to respond to Nick real quick.
I totally agree with him on what was the wording you used, Nick,
like judging yourself differently or kind of having a different goal during this time.
I actually wrote a blog on that.
Let me see.
How can I get it up here?
Where is it here?
One second.
Let me see. They changed this. here. Where is it here? Hold on a second.
Let me see.
They changed this.
I did it earlier, but now I'm having trouble finding it.
All right, here it is.
I found it.
I found it right now.
All right, so in the nest when you get a chance, some really good advice.
I actually love market drawdowns because that's when you position yourself to really beat the rest of the market.
It's easy to make money when everyone's making money. But my goal when the market goes down
is just to limit my losses, to do less bad than the indices are doing. And I get fanatical about
that. And I get very excited about that because if the market's down 10, 15%, 20%, but you're only down 5%, then as soon as the market starts correcting, you're going to be exploding to new all-time highs very fast.
And I did that during the COVID crash and Liberation Day crash, and it's really made my few years here.
The key to outperforming long-term is limiting drawdowns during market pullbacks.
And that article there, that blog, gives you five tips how to limit drawdowns during market pullbacks. And that article there, that blog, gives you five tips how to limit drawdowns during market
pullbacks.
That's that point I wanted to put out there.
As far as the stock picks, it's really hard because I don't know where the heck the market's
going to be a week from now.
You know, as I said earlier, I'm pretty embarrassed because we're below the 50-week moving average,
and I put out some really low targets there for you guys on the first half of the show uh with qqq but on any given like
where are we going to be monday at the close like could that be you know one of the green candles
that goes and tests now the 50 moving average you know weekly moving average resistance by the time
monday close comes very well could be. So this is a tough one.
I'm just kidding.
It's kind of like a week out.
It's kind of random.
But I'm going to put it out there because my bias is towards the downside.
But probably we're going to have one, maybe two huge green days between now and next Monday afternoon.
two huge green days between now and next Monday afternoon.
So, but anyway, I'm going to put TZA because IWM has kind of overperformed QQQ and SPY.
It's not, did it even break below the 200 DMA today yet?
Let me just see.
Yeah, it did today.
Finally break below the 200 DMA.
And, you know, to kind of catch up with where QSPY is, it has to be at like 228.
So like another, whatever that is, I don't know what percent that is, another $11, $12 down to
just kind of match the shape of the chart and, you know, the magnitude of the drop below the
50-week moving average. So that's one pick for you, TZA. And another one is Jet D. It's an ETF that's triple short the
airlines. And yeah, I mean, do I even need to explain why I'm bearish on the airlines?
High oil, less travel to Mideast and Europe, the TSA issue with long lines.
So that's that.
Great.
TZA was the first one.
The second one, you said Jet V?
Jet V.
Jet V. Jet V.
Jet V.
Jet V.
Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V.
Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V.
Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V.
Jet V. Jet V. Jet V. Jet V.
Jet V.
Jet V. Jet V. It's doing pretty well.
Triple Short Airlines.
J-E-T-D as in David.
All right.
Perfect.
Thank you, Ben.
Great to have you back on the show as well.
Great hearing your voice again.
Hope you're doing well.
T-Z-A-J-E-T-D.
And of course, as always, I'm putting out a full tweet with all these picks.
So at the end, once I get everyone's in, I will send that out.
And of course, let us know which pick you would have put in here as well.
And you can see the full list here. Great, great tool.
If you're trying to create a watch list for some trades over the next week.
Thank you, Ben. Let's go over to Ariel. Come back around to you.
Well, I feel like I haven't talked to you in an hour.
What a great show we've been having today but Ariel excited to see our current champion which
two picks are on your radar for the week yeah I think that uh even despite some of the pullback
that we recently saw in some of the optics names I I am going to kind of side with those same names
again I I don't think that you know a name a name that was up 6,000% for the year,
you know, with that morning squeeze and then the failure that we saw, I do think running back AXTI
for a likely move into the 50-day seems to make some sense. And it does feel like LITE, similar
story. You know, you normally get the experts at the very tail end of a move.
L-I-T-X also feels like a good run back as well, both on the short side.
All right, so just running back both of those two winners then.
A-X-T-I and L-I-T-X, both on the short side?
Yes, sir.
Perfect.
There you have it.
Doubling down our current champion.
Real simple, Ariel.
Which Evan is also the current champion.
He joined late, so
we kind of half-crowned Ariel as well.
But either way, we'll see.
Does that mean I actually won last week?
Yeah, you won.
Because you tried to fade yourself.
You tried to reverse jinx your own bags, and it didn't work.
So I don't know if that's why I'm calling Ariel.
You both won, okay?
You both had 20-plus percent returns over the last week.
You had BMNG and BMNU.
Both of them were at 26.5%.
You shorted both of those.
So there you are.
Those are both at a dollar now by the way um all right Ariel's picks are in we'll come back around uh Sam you're already
unmuted let's get your picks next yeah I am going to I mean Ben's got a Ben's got a point like I
I am not trying to short anything to oblivion right now.
We've had some massive, massive pullbacks lately.
If anything, we did see quite a bounce in software today,
which I'm definitely not going to be extremely bullish on in the real port.
But I'm going to go long.
What is this?
I'm going to go long Fastly, FSLY.
That one pulled back right to its 20-day moving average,
managed to still close above the 21 EMA, which is really good to see.
So I'm going to go long that one.
And I'm also going to go long, I'm sorry, go short two times AMD.
I think that's AMDG, which I think someone else is actually going to long
that one, but I'm going to go short that one. I'm going to go long the software,
short the semiconductors. We saw semiconductors pull back pretty dramatically. AMD had its first
close below the 200-day moving average, which probably is not the best setup. And just a word
of caution, I am not actually doing these in the real portfolio. Might have done a day trade to do
today, but I'm not trying to swing for any leverage positions right now. If anything, if I do, it's
definitely going to be closed before next week. So yeah, so long two times, sorry, there is not
two times of fastly, long FSLY and short AMDG.
Shout out to Leverage Shares.
Let's go.
There you go.
Shout out to friends of the show.
Leverage Shares, AMDG, 2X Leverage, AMD on the short side for Sam and FSLY from our third place finisher last week with a 5.4% return.
And as Sam mentioned there, Will could not make the show tonight.
I think soccer practice or something was happening,
but he is going to try to long AMDG.
And his second pick, I'll go ahead and toss out here, SVXY long as well.
So there's Will's two picks.
You just heard Sam's two picks.
We don't have Chris anymore. Let's go back around to Vegas.
Let's come to you next.
You know what? I think I'm short C3AI.
So the ticker is AI. I don't know if there's an ETF on that one or not.
I didn't look into that.
But yeah, short C3AI.
Since that's in the software space.
And I think there's a lot of rotation with these stocks, with the tech stocks. And then I'm going to go, I was going to go into maybe a biotech stock that's looking negative.
How about, let's do NVAX short.
So bearish on two stocks.
Very rare, you guys know.
Very rare.
Maybe a little bear.
Yeah.
So AI and NVAX.
Nasty chart.
All right.
So NVAX on the short side was that second pick.
The first one was short AI.
C3 AI.
They should give up that ticker name if they go any lower on it.
You know what?
Yeah, that ticker should go to like Jensen should be AI.
He's the king of AI.
Yeah, there we go.
I love bears here.
First two. I don't know if I've
ever seen you pick two shorts.
I've never, I barely even
picked one, like out of the whole year.
I seriously never even picked one, but
this time, I'm going for blood.
There it is.
We'll see how this plays
out. This will be quite interesting, because
AI, it's actually
the volume's down.
It kind of had a bit of a reversal doji there.
I'm not too sure if it's going to want to have a range contraction or not,
but it looks like, you know, it's got some downside looking pretty ugly there.
But I'll wait and watch and we'll see how this can go.
So we'll see how the bears, I welcome the bears to come into these trades.
I love the bears.
You know,
I love the bears.
So we'll see how these play out.
Those are my two picks this week.
Boom.
Appreciate you Vegas.
That is short AI,
ticker AI and short NVAX.
The two picks there from I love stocks,
Miss Vegas.
Appreciate you joining the show.
As always, Nick Drindle, let's go for your two picks next, please.
Yeah.
If we're talking about disappointing stock tickers, you got AI and then B-U-L-L.
What a trash stock that is for bull.
They need to give that one up too.
But I do think we'll probably get that oversold bounce.
It's not going to feel great putting on any risk in this market.
But again, hopefully we get bad news. But when we get bad news, if that doesn't continue the price action lower,
that's when I would be looking to jump to the long side.
Silver is going to be my first pick.
I don't know if we could just go silver if there's the leverage one.
What is that? AGQ?
Yeah, let's go AGQ.
This one, parabolic top, right?
Then you had your big base and you rolled back over. There was two major
washouts on silver lower a couple of weeks ago. And since then, we've been showing nice relative
strength. We're really tightening up here. So if that market pressure does get relieved, I do think
after those two washouts, we see a rally back in silver, maybe to the 20 day, maybe to the 50.
It kind of depends how long that takes. I don't really see it getting back in silver, maybe to the 20-day, maybe to the 50. Kind of depends how long that takes.
I don't really see it getting back to 75, but into that $72 range for SLV.
So that's like an oversold bounce play.
I was going to go Fastly, so good choice on that one.
But let's go DOCN.
That's the other leader that's been holding up really well.
They did a secondary offering last week on the 25th.
The gap down immediately got bought up,
actually closed at the new 52-week closing high on the highest volume ever
during the secondary offering in a crappy market.
And after that, great relative strength on Thursday,
came back to the 10-day on Friday.
And even with today's action down 3.8%, we bounced right on the 20-day moving average.
So if there is that pressure that gets relieved in the market, then I'm looking at relative
strength on kind of like newer leadership names, not the names that led us in the last bull market.
Those are likely done, but newer names like DOCN here.
All right.
So just to clarify that DOCN is a long.
Yeah.
Okay.
Just double checking to make sure that's what I read.
I mean, I just pulled up the chart real quick and I was like, okay, I see something here.
All right.
Nick Drendel going with long DO D-O-C-N,
and then Long AGQ, the ProShares Ultra Silver to the long side.
There you go.
Nick Drendel, appreciate you.
Always great having you on the show as well.
Michael Knauss, let's come back around your direction
and see what your systems are kicking out at us this time.
Sure.
And yeah, like I mentioned before,
it's buy the dip, sell the rip, right? That's the stuff that's keeping me alive. Then the day
trading systems just by looking for things that might be a little overdone or really kind of
strong stocks pulling back, that type of thing, and out a couple days later, right? So that's
kind of the main premise. None of these things I'm looking for huge moves, right? It's just, can I do this mean reversion thing
until things become a little easier? I don't like that term, but a little bit easier here
in the overall market. So I did a little tweet and I put it below. And again, just to reiterate,
I'm a systems trader. So everything I do is, you know, I'm a quant, right?
Back tested, goes through system, it spits out and says,
buy this thing based off, you know, 25, 30 years,
a couple hundred thousand shares or a couple hundred thousand trades.
You know, there's a 65% chance this thing will be up next week, right?
So if any of these are good companies or crap companies or anything,
I don't know about that.
So if you're worried about fundamentals, make sure you do your due diligence and look into them.
The first one is SATL.
This appears to be like a satellite kind of aerospace defense company.
It's one of the strongest ones out there.
But one of the main benefits that I'm seeing here and that this system really loves, it's just buying pullbacks into incredibly strong stocks. And last week,
which was a hard week for the market, this was up 33%. It's up 156% year to date. And just one of
the reasons this one stuck out, and I want to bring this one as opposed to any others, if you scroll back and you look like the $5-ish area on this one, it was huge resistance
for the longest time, broke that pretty handily on decent volume last week.
And then we had a sharp pullback today.
So that's the premise behind the algo.
It's pretty simple.
It's like an anchored VWAP pullback system.
We're looking for week one to be an incredibly strong move.
And then week two is a pullback into that range,
into where that kind of VWAP is.
And very quickly, like with most mean reversion,
with most kind of pullback and dip buying,
you want a very quick reaction off of this $5 level
and a push up from there.
Absolute kind of worst case if we see,
if we get into the threes, the high threes,
definitely wrong or early, which is the same thing.
So it's time to get out.
But very quickly, I'm looking for reaction
off this about $5 a share.
Full disclosure, again, both of these things,
I am in, right?
Robots buy them for me.
So I'm in whenever they trigger.
And yeah, we're seeing that that pull back to five bucks on that SATL. You know, this gone from $1 to $6 over the last little bit. So
just, you know, a liquid, thin, tiny little guy could be complete scam. I don't know. So just
when you're trading these things, just know these are it could go to zero overnight. I don't know. So just when you're trading these things, just know these are, it could go to zero
overnight. I don't even know. It's satellite thing at a dollar a share probably doesn't have any
satellite. So just be careful. But yeah, that $5, if you go back on the chart, has been huge going
all the way back to 2022, 2021. So if we can stay above that, there might be some people who've been
red for a long time or who are feeling nice here. And the second one is cmi cummings which i'll try not to giggle too much about um is a
manufacturer of auto parts and uh this is just a pure meaner version setup so it's not looking for
it's kind of a long-term version of that same chart that I
showed where, you know, if you look at that SATL, it was a quick move up last week and then a quick
pullback this week. And we're just trying to play this. This is one that's been strong for years,
all the way since, you know, the tariff tantrum, this thing's been kind of just in a great straight
line grind higher. That's the first prerequisite
to this one. Just if anyone wants to get in the weeds, it's a long period RSI that has not been
oversold for a long period of time, just showing relative strength for ages. And then now in the
short term, this thing has become oversold and a little bit weak. And that one triggered today as
well because we're looking for all the conditions to be met and then an bit weak. And that one triggered today as well, because we're looking
for all the conditions to be met and then an extension lower. And we got that today around
the 510-ish area. So that was where we bought that near the end of the day today. And just like
the other one, right, oversold, bounce, definitely trading against the short-term trend, although
trading with the long-term trend. So just looking for this dip to resolve pretty quickly. Exit condition for both of these is just
time stop, right? I won't rant about this too long, but a lot of people like to use profit
targets or trailing stops or something like that. I think something that's slept on a lot is time
stops. So essentially just, I've heard it called a shot clock. So you get in the trade, you optimize
for how long you generally get your best amount of profit out of that trade. In these two scenarios,
it is somewhere in the neighborhood of five days to 10 days. So exit next week sometime.
So just know, again, none of these were swinging for the fences, not looking for any of these to
break out or double or anything crazy like that.
Just clean areas where the statistics say probably good time to buy, looking to exit in a couple of days.
You know, that one to one risk reward, give or take 65, 70 percent win rate on them.
And just, you know, stay engaged and stay alive until hopefully the market chills out a bit.
All right, there you have it.
SATL long and CMI as well.
Both long, correct, Michael?
Yeah, that's right.
I have yet to find a good, completely systematic way to short stocks for any length
of time.
If anyone has one, I'm open.
But until then, just buy dips in bad markets.
There you go.
Buy, dip, sell rifts right there.
CMI and SATL.
I did take that post that he put out there and got it pinned up in the nest. And if you're in the
audience, make sure you check out the nest up top. There are a lot of great things that have
been shared by the panel, some different stock charts, some different tips and stuff like that.
There was even a story trading, put a nice little note in there as well that you can go
read some really great information. We appreciate all of the different things that are shared up
there up top. Michael, great to have you back on the show as well. Hope to have you again soon.
Each and every Monday, we do run this, of course. There we go. There we go. Awesome. I'm excited for
that. We do run this each and every Monday, of course. I see a lot of friends down in the audience
as well. I see Taj hanging out, TweetCoin. I saw Cheese down there. I saw Thomas, Gordy,
several others, our friend,
Bullish Bear, Squints, a lot of people that I see here in the audience each and every week.
Appreciate you guys tuning in. Let's get the last few picks in here and get wrapped up for
this Monday, last Monday of March. Let's go to Evan. Evan, if you're available,
you won. I think you accidentally won, but either way, you won I think you accidentally won but either way you won
get rocked
ready for the back to back
give me
long CRCG
give me long BMNG
alright he's flipping the BMNG
from short to long
and he's taking 2x
those names move so much lately.
That could be really bad or really good.
Either first or last, Ricky Bobby.
Hey, if you're not first or last, that's what Ricky Bobby always said.
My hero.
CRCG, 2X Leverage Circle from our friends over at Leverage Shares.
And then same thing for BMNR.
That's BMNG from our current champion that wasn't
trying to be champion. He was trying to pump his bags, but he won. So we'll give him credit either
way. Evan, appreciate you, sir. With those two picks, Jordan, my other co-host up here,
appreciate you always co-hosting the show on Monday evenings with me, getting to hang out
with you a little bit more than just on the stream each and every day appreciate you being here jordan what's uh what's your take here uh what are you doing uh your your
triple q's play what are you no we're gonna go a little different we're staying leveraged though
uh okay i think gold's gonna bounce i think me and nick are thinking a little similar on the
metals here so i want gdxu long and i want s h n y long, and I want SHNY long,
which is the microsectors gold 3X ETF.
They're both 3X ETFs, so let's run it.
Gold for that.
Shiny, that's a good ticker.
I'm a great ticker.
Yeah, I just found that.
I looked up if there was any others because I wanted to double up,
and apparently there is, so there you go.
So he didn't say long TQQ and short SKQ?
No, I'm double longing gold.
If that makes any sense.
Wow.
That actually is a pretty good player.
Come on.
Let's run it.
There it is.
All right.
GDXU and SHNY.
Let me get these typed in here as well.
GDXU.
What was it?
SHNY.
Shiny.
What a ticker.
That's a great ticker.
Love that.
All right.
Jordan, I'm going to do something kind of similar.
I do still like, I picked gold last week.
I tried to short oil with it or USO.
So it just washed me out and it was a little bit, I still beat the market somehow, but
I still like gold.
I'm with you.
I'm with Nick on the metals a little bit.
So I'm going to do something similar.
I'm just going to take GLD to the long side, but I'm also going to go short digital gold.
I'm going to use BTCZ.
Bitcoin, it looks like it wants to roll off the table for a second time. When I look at this Bitcoin chart, it rolled over, trended down for a while, went sideways for a long time,
did a little like look above liquidity grab, you know, look above fell, and trended down again.
We've since kind of done a similar thing.
So I look at that, I see two pockets on the Bitcoin chart
that look very similar to me.
So I'm looking at that.
Now, obviously, as a risk-on, risk-off type of indicator,
if we do get a bounce in the market,
it's probably going to bounce.
If anything, I would look for that to be a little bit better,
maybe on the entry.
But I do like, if you look today, Bitcoin does look like it's come back down to the same support area,
got a little bit of a pop, immediately got sold into like the daily nine. You look at some of
the others, you look at like Ethereum, it popped up 50 day moving average, the daily nine, daily
21, both rejected up there at the highs, pushed back down under everything.
So I'm going to look for that on the downside and then gold to the upside.
Boy, I'm with so much of the panel here, though, because I look and I see, OK, I feel like we could get kind of just a big countertrend bounce at any point.
I don't know how sustained it'll be. It may it may be two days.
We may get two days and then roll right
back over. We may just continue bleeding. We haven't had the real, I haven't seen the full
just sell everything capitulation yet, even though it feels close to that. So I'm very
cautious overall in this market, but there's my picks right there. I think we got everybody in
here. Let me send this out. Boom, posted right there
on the Wolf Financial, I almost said Wolf Trading, Wolf Financial timeline, stock picks for the week
with everyone's picks. If I made a mistake, I am human. Please let me know. And I can get that
corrected here pretty quickly. But I think I got everyone lined out there. Big shout out to the entire crew,
the whole panel up here, Michael, Nick, Ariel, Vegas, Sam hanging out with us here to the end.
Of course, my two co-hosts, make sure you're following all of these. They will
improve your experience on this app. Check out all the things they're doing off this app as well.
A lot of them have a lot of great services and things going on. You know, newsletters, notes, discord, live streams.
There's so many great things that they're doing.
If you want to dive in deeper, maybe one of them's trading style
peeks your interest a little bit more than someone else.
Definitely go in and check out what they're doing.
We appreciate their time.
Appreciate all of them being here.
And of course, we appreciate all you guys tuning in here on a Monday night.
Still, what's up, Evan? I was just saying everyone should make sure they're following the host of this space as well. here. And of course, we appreciate all you guys tuning in here on a Monday night still.
What's up, Evan? I was just saying everyone should make sure they're following the host
of this space as well, that Wolf account. If you enjoy these live free conversations,
do it a bunch of them. Shout out. Absolutely. We're doing a ton of them. We're adding new
stuff all the time. If you check out the pinned post there on the Wolf Financial main page, this host account
right here, you will see a full calendar with almost everything that we're doing. We have other
channels. Obviously, Wolf Bitcoin's got their own schedule. There's Wolf Crypto channel out there.
There's a bunch of other great accounts doing great different things. But you can see the big
snapshot of our mostly stock market focused schedule there with live streams, different conversations.
Obviously, tomorrow, we're kicking it off in the morning live trading that we have over on Wolf Trading all the time.
Each and every day, if the market's open, Jordan and I are live somewhere.
We got the Tesla show.
We've got a new show, Investing for Income, that I think we just slightly kind of soft launched last week.
We're continuing that.
That's on Thursday.
So if you've looked at any dividend type of stocks,
income type of stocks, things like that,
definitely check out that new show as well this Thursday.
I'm excited for that one.
Great guy running that one.
It's a really smart host, done a lot of research on this.
Make sure you check that one out. CryptoFit, our friend over there, handling that one. Great guy running that one. It's a really smart host, done a lot of research on this. Make sure you check that one out. CryptoFit, our friend over there, handling that one. So
big shout out to that. Big shout out to everything going on. And of course, as always,
the audience, a bunch of you guys hanging out with us. I see so many, I love just when I get
on Spaces and I start scrolling down underneath the speaker panel. I see so many familiar faces,
you guys hanging out with us. We appreciate you guys being here with us each and every Monday for this show. And as always, it's
recorded. If you missed any of it, as soon as I close this out in a few moments, you'll be able to
listen to that full recording. I know there's a lot of spaces that I don't get to listen to anymore
because I'm on stream, like our small cap show that happened this afternoon with Ben from Story
Trading, some of the other crew over there.
Nighttime, lay down, you know, do some chores, house chores, whatever. Toss on that
recording. There you go.
Evan, any last words from you?
I was just going to say, shout out, dude. You are
Ryan is on live stream all
day, every day, pretty much.
The Wolf Trading crew. There's a tweet
pinned up in the nest above. I
heard a rumor there might be a couple
prop firm accounts
given away tomorrow.
if you want to be on the live stream
on this basis.
Yeah, absolutely.
I appreciate that.
Also,
go ahead, Sam.
Well,
I was going to say,
also on the Wolf YouTube,
you guys did release
the Gab Blacksburg interview
with Chris Camillo.
I'm going to be listening to that
on the airplane.
I got a 13-hour flight.
13-hour? Where are you going?
Give me the exact address.
How long are you going to be there?
I am going to Egypt and Jordan.
Egypt and Jordan.
Yes, sir.
All right, safe travels, my friend.
It's going to be a late night, early morning for you to join our spaces.
I expect your attendance at everything while you're there.
There are no vacations allowed around here.
Jordan's given 100 on that.
The only person that's excused is Gav right now because he's on a cruise for his honeymoon.
So he's the only person excused from anything right now.
We expect your attendance.
Your silence tells me yes.
I second that.
There you go.
Two votes. Two against one.
You lose Final Four
coming up as well.
We may have to do
some Final Four or some championship
picks next week on Monday.
I believe that final is next Monday.
I've been pretty bad, honestly.
The teams that I thought were going to win have not won.
Yeah, my bracket, not doing well.
Not well.
Not great.
Well, how is the bracket, the one that you made for like the Wolves people before
I haven't looked at it
Well I'm not doing well
There's
There are
Number one and number two
Have Michigan and Arizona
So it's going to come down to either Michigan or Arizona winning
Basically
To see who wins that bracket challenge I think
But we'll see.
We'll see.
Somehow tied for second place, somebody that picked Florida.
So their ceiling is much lower than the other two here.
But we'll see.
I think Arizona looked like the best team so far.
That's my pick for the rest of the tournament.
Arizona versus Illinois.
I lost money on St. John's, and I picked Ohio State to go pretty far.
Yeah. tournament and i picked ohio state to go pretty far yeah i had uh i had duke uh winning it all and they uh they choked so hard last i saw i just saw the clip good lord it's like i i tweeted last
night i was like this is like if you're trading a prop firm you're 50 from a payout you just blow
the account the same day that's that what Duke did last night. Just terrible.
There are, I heard a rumor
there's going to be some new
announcements tomorrow. It should be
an interesting day. I wonder how people do it.
Tradeify 3.0.
It's going to be fun.
We are giving away
an account on the live stream tomorrow.
Tradeify account
and a Lucid account too, right?
Maybe if we get
500 concurrent viewers
on the live stream.
You give me 500 concurrent people,
I'll give away two accounts.
There we go.
Boom. Write it down.
Take it to the bank.
We're in a good spot here. What's bank. What did we get up to today? We're in a good spot here.
What's up?
What did we get up to today?
360s or something.
I don't know.
I couldn't tell because the analytics were all messed up on YouTube today.
They were interesting.
Sam's all live stream did well as well.
Yeah, I want to watch that one.
And I want to watch that interview with Chris Camillo
I didn't realize he took
What did he take, like 20k or 40k to like
40 million or something crazy?
Yeah, that's what we're saying here
70 million
70 million
So far, it's been underperforming
It has a low click-through rate
So we're trying to mess with the title a little bit
I guess it might be the thumbnail, but...
I don't know why there's grid lines in that thumbnail.
Is that intentional?
A and B testing.
I want to see the B, then.
I don't know.
Is this our huddle right now?
I can't really...
All right. We're closed on space. We'll talk offline on some of that. I don't know. Is this our huddle right now? I can't really... Just kidding. Oh.
All right.
We're closed on space.
We'll talk offline on some of that.
That's interesting.
Great video, though.
Wonderful video.
What a legend.
There's a good one from Tom Nash in there the other day, too.
It was about a month ago.
I just got around to watching that one last week.
Shout out to Tom Nash. Oh, also, Tom Lee was on CNBC today,
so I was able to catch that one for the stream.
Did he get a new haircut or something?
Can I turn the top right at the end, please?
Okay, I don't see it.
I don't know. I didn't see it.
Somebody in my chat today was saying that he got his hair done or something.
I had Dan Ives coming on the show on Wednesday.
Oh, shout out to that.
Yeah, nice.
Wednesday, which show?
I'm just going to have him come on a live stream.
And we'll make a video.
But unfortunately, Wednesday at noon is when it's happening.
So, you know, it is what it is.
Should I watch your live stream from my live stream?
What if a live stream from my live stream just
one of my streams we'll have like four live streams up and like no do it yeah honestly
um well the market goes well here's the thing i would have done it i would have done it on your
live stream i'm just doing it because i want to have the interview with him. And I don't want to take away from the trading.
So I thought it would be a net negative to the stream for you.
Yeah, you just never know what this market's going to do.
Schedule a big guess and next thing you know, you get a true social.
All right.
Who knows?
Goodbye.
All right.
Have a great night, everyone.
First thing in the morning, live trading over on the Wolf Trading Account.
Full schedule, as I mentioned earlier.
Pin tweet.
Boom.
Full space is recorded.
The best space.
Don't listen to the last 10 minutes of the space.
It's just rambling.
All right.
Later, crew. Thank you.
