Thank you. Thank you. What is up?
How is everyone doing? Happy Monday. Hopefully you're staying warm wherever you are.
Some of you guys dealing with some pretty cold weather out there. So hope all is well. Hope all
is safe. And I know a couple people sent me messages said they are basically on holiday
today. They're shoveling snow, different things like that.
So we'll roll with it either way.
It's been two weeks since we last spoke on this space,
last Monday being Martin Luther King Day.
So we did a two-week competition, and a two-week competition didn't go too well.
It wasn't a pretty result on the two-week competition.
But either way, we're still here, as always.
And we'll go forward and see what we can do with all this stuff.
Huge week this week, by the way.
Now, most of you are probably aware, but Wednesday is FOMC, for one.
But Wednesday is FOMC, for one.
97%, depending on your source,
chance that they are going to hold interest rates
where they are currently at.
Does Trump come in and try to big league Powell
and announce a new Fed chair right before he goes on stage or something?
Crazier things have happened.
Just following maybe the playbook there a little bit.
We'll see what happens there.
Obviously, earnings will be huge this week as well.
We have from the MAG7 side of things, of course,
Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, AfterPal on Wednesday the 28th.
If you, I mean, you go to your earnings calendar
and just you put 100 billion market cap plus,
you can put 10 billion plus whatever.
I had to go up to 100 billion
because there was too many things on my screen,
but so many different baskets of the market
are reporting from, you know, defense, energy,
semiconductors to consumer staples type of stuff,
couple banks, couple energy names in here,
IBM, these are some other notable ones.
ServiceNow, IBM, Lamb Research, Texas Instruments,
Starbucks, AT&T, UNH, BA, NextEra Energy,
Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Caterpillar, Honeywell,
tons and tons of CVX, Exxon on Friday.
So many different baskets of the market reporting this week.
Going to be a great week.
I'm excited for it to see what happens here.
Is this the kind of push that we maybe finally need to go forward?
And then I'll close out with these comments here
and we'll start getting around the panel a little bit.
But it's been interesting the last couple days, three days or so,
where we've seen money kind of flowing back out of all those IWM type of names,
those mid-cap names, back into some of the big tech.
You've seen QQQ starts outperforming a little bit more,
and IWM kind of coming back in.
So water's shifting around, people are jostling for position,
and I'm excited to see what happens with big tech earnings.
We'll come back around and I'll share some more thoughts here in a little bit.
But first, let's dive into, I'll call it the results, and then we'll go to the panel and get some market thoughts.
And then we'll get some picks and we'll see.
Probably have a light crowd today.
Like I said, I've got at least two people that were dealing with snow issues.
One person couldn't travel and is stuck somewhere. Another person was out shoveling. One person's sick.
We've got all kinds of people, but we're glad you guys are here hanging out either way.
Results for last week. As a group, we got smoked. There's no friendly way to put this.
As a unit, we were down 7.5%.
Market itself was down 0.4% on the S&P, 0.3%.
So some of these high names, these high beta names got smoked.
Some of other ones did what, I mean, just depending on what side you're on,
it seems like it didn't go too well.
Our winners, though, we did have one just outstanding winner.
It's Gav Blacksburg, who we'll see if he joins us at some point today.
But he had a 9.43% return.
He longed GDXU, of course, with the leveraged gold miners there.
He was also long OSS, which was down 15.5%.
So that's why his average ended up being at 9.43%,
but still incredible return from GAV.
Second place goes to, one second, one second.
Second place goes to the guy popping up on stage right now.
There's second place right there.
I'm going to send him co-host Jordan Ace the Kid.
Our other positive return this week.
He had COTG, 2X Leverage Costco, 7.47% return over the last two weeks.
Gave him that 7.47% return over the last two weeks. Gave him that 7.47% return and then LLYX went down, giving him an average of 1.33. Third place goes to Chris Patel up here on stage. Chris
Patel just did better, not as bad as all the rest of us. We'll put it that way.
TSM basically break even, Netflix down a little bit there,
but still rounded out the top three there.
We had a couple other people close by, but that's our top three.
I was not far behind Chris there.
I had a couple just kind of in the middle, didn't go too far.
But boy, some of these other names got beat up a little bit.
But hey, we're here again.
I feel like if this was a one-week competition,
these results probably looked much different last Monday,
Either way, let's dive into it a little bit
and get some market thoughts.
Chris, I'll let you kick us off a little bit here
with market sentiment thoughts.
I was mentioning at the beginning there, we've seen some flows back into tech.
We have a crazy week this week with earnings all over the place from MAG7 to about every
bucket you can think of in the market.
We've got Jerome Powell smack in the middle of it.
It seems like nobody even cares about the FOMC at this point, which is a little different
than in the past years or so.
But either way, I'm curious to see what is your thought overall in the market here? What are you looking forward to this week? Are you concerned? Are you optimistic? Are you waiting for data?
Talk me through it a little bit, Chris. So one of the things that I've been just keeping my eye on is just, um, home prices,
shelter. I think right now you're starting to see the number of listings coming up. You know,
spring is usually when a lot more listings start coming on the market. Usually the peak of listings
happens around, around March, April. Um, yeah. And it's very interesting to see that dynamic
because a lot of the homes that were not sold in 2025 are going to end up coming on to 2026.
The reason why I'm kind of highlighting this is because the number of buyers in the market has dropped significantly and the number of sellers is growing by the day.
This also means that the sellers are losing a lot of pricing power.
the sellers are losing a lot of pricing power. When you consider that plus the
number of rental vacancy rates right now, there are some cities in the country
that have a rental vacancy rate of about 10% plus, which is pretty crazy if you
think about it. Because if you're let's say have a 50 unit building and
10% are unoccupied, that's pretty much your entire profit margin, depending on what your
cap rate is. And a lot of these multifamilies, they have to refinance from their low, what is
it called? Low pre-COVID or COVID level rates to newer interest rates. Yeah, it's a pretty big challenge. So real estate, especially in the
multifamily side, could end up dragging inflation down significantly for next year. And I think the
next few months, the data is going to start to reflect that. Truflation's kind of already got
that reflected in their numbers where you're seeing like the growth rate. I mean, the year over year CPI, according to them is like 0.5%, which means that we are woefully behind on the needed amount
of rate cuts to basically balance out our thing. So the Fed might end up pivoting from fighting
inflation to fighting deflation if things get bad enough. So the key thing is, is that actually happening
And I think for me, the next few months
is just finding out if the data that trueflation is showing
is even remotely accurate.
Because if it is remotely accurate,
then we kind of want to position ourselves
in order to take advantage of that lower rate environment
by being in companies that benefit
a steepening yield curve, which I think could set the tone for the year going forward.
I do think that the Trump administration's entire policy goal for the next year at least
is to win the midterm. So everything that is positive for consumers consumers or at least the perception of positivity is going to be highlighted by this president.
So right now, one of the things that we're seeing overnight is no one likes insurance.
Let's just get this out the way.
Nobody likes insurance companies, health insurance companies specifically.
They feel that it's a waste of time.
They're not getting anything out of it that they need.
So one of the easiest industries to hit on the head is the health insurance industry.
And so one of the policies that we saw today was just the Trump administration is saying
we're not going to raise the rates on health insurance companies in 2027, which some of
it could be politically driven.
Some of it could be driven by decent policy
and trying to contain costs for the government.
But at the same time, the impact is going to be detrimental to the patient,
in my opinion, like long-term,
because what ends up happening is a lot of these insurance companies,
all they really do is they say, okay, we're not getting reimbursed.
We're just not going to provide services that we normally would have. Medicare Advantage has a lot of excess services
that get provided on top of healthcare coverage. And so a lot of these companies will just say,
you know what? We're not going to do this. We're not going to do that. Like two years ago,
United Healthcare and all these guys, they used to have something called gym memberships for
Advantage members. They used to do like meal delivery. They even gave utility bills,
reimbursed seniors for utility bills and stuff.
So all of these things were goodies
that people got in order to kind of go that route.
A lot of those things are going to be withdrawn
to support their margins.
even though UnitedHealth and a lot of these guys
that are taking it on the chin right now, they're probably going to work on cutting back on expenses. And
usually it's at the cost of the patient's health. And that's just how the cookie crumbles. That's
just how the system works. But once again, I reiterate, any company that you guys are invested
in right now, think of it as, is this a popular industry
with the people or is it not? Because if it's not popular with the people, the Trump administration
will attack it. Anything that's popular with the people, they're probably going to support.
So as an example, housing, right? We saw the other day, the whole conversation around policy was,
hey, we're going to get Blackstone
and a lot of these guys out of the housing market.
Now, that was purely driven by sentiment, right?
People are screaming about housing affordability.
So what is the Trump administration going to do?
It's going to hit the head,
like hit the companies on the head
with regards to, you know,
corporates like buying homes. But at the same time,
you're also talking about the administration who's like, we want people to buy homes. So
they're willing to lower price, you know, lower buy MBS products to, to basically lower the cost
of the 30 year mortgage. So you're seeing probably the companies that are going to be benefiting from
the refinancing wave that comes along with this, they're going to do well. So this is where we are right now. This is the oligopoly, not oligopoly, but this is where
the government's policy intervention mechanism is on full display. Anything and everything right
now should be viewed, at least for the next year, in the lens of, is this going to support the
agenda of the administration in charge.
If that's the case with the industry,
then you'll definitely see news coming out that's going to lend to it.
Anything that's detrimental to the administration's policy goals,
you're going to see the opposite happen.
So I think each subsector,
we're probably going to have to weigh against each one of these.
So yeah, that's where I am at.
Appreciate that color there.
I was looking at UNH down 10% after hours, that headline that came up just a little bit ago.
Chris, appreciate your thoughts there.
We'll come back around and get your picks here shortly.
Nick Drindle, we'll bring you in next and see what you're watching in this
market. Yeah, well, today the main focus was around silver topping. We finally got that blow
off top today. Just absolutely enormous opportunity, enormous volume. We saw that acceleration in
price throughout the day. And then the heaviest volume came not like on the open,
but during like the very peak there. So really, really nice trade. Those parabolic tops are
always a little tricky on the way up. You just want to make sure that you stay on the right
side of the VWAP. And when they work, they take care of all those losses very, very quickly. So it seems like silver is top.
Gold, I'm not as confident in.
We didn't have the same type of volume, but platinum, kind of same thing.
We were seeing the big shakeout or the pullback continuing after hours.
And I think that was really like the main opportunity coming into today and the rest of
the week. If we get like a bounce off the five day week price action, a loss to the daily view app
later in the day, that kind of stuff. I'll just continue to add to that short because when you
get a commodity or any type of stock going straight up like this, that reversal back into the
10 and the 20 day EMAs happened very quickly and can be, at least to me, the best opportunities
So that's kind of going to be like, that was my focus coming into the day.
It was the focus all of last week as well.
And probably going to continue to be the focus the rest of this week. If we get like little weaker bounce backs into declining moving averages or intraday moving averages,
just like to continue to press that weakness down.
Now with the rest of the market, I really like what the NASDAQ ended up doing here,
where it was a very, very clean volatility contraction pattern,
which if you're a swing trader, Mark Minervini
has kind of coined that term.
And it was almost too pretty.
I know Ariel and I were talking about this where it's like, yes, every single person
on planet Earth sees this VCP pattern in the NASDAQ.
And then of course we get the big gap down on Tuesday of last week.
But instead of gapping down and following through to the downside, we recaptured the year to date, like opening price just the next day. And then we get back
through the 50 day moving average along with the 10 and the 20 day EMAs, which is a really,
really good sign. Also with that in mind, we've started to see positioning finally come
down positioning for the NAIM,
which is, again, active investors exposure, their actual exposure, not their sentiment.
They've been over the 95% threshold that I track for, what is it, seven of the last nine weeks.
We're finally starting to see exposure drop down below that 95 level. Last week, as of Wednesday's close, it was 88.5%.
Still a little bit elevated. It doesn't leave too much on the bone if the market starts working,
but we're at least not at that 101 level that we saw back in middle of December. And that really
led to the choppy environment that we've been in. So I really hope we continue to see exposure drop there.
With the commitment of traders futures data, we also saw the NASDAQ positioning get more
The Russell got a little bit more long, which at this point, it kind of feels like the Russell
can pull back into the 20-day moving average, kind of like a breakout retest and still be
But now we're heading into earnings season and that's really where the next like group
or next themes are going to show themselves and the next liquid leaders are going to show
So while we've had like the space theme, very, very strong, the metals, very, very strong.
Space metals and semiconductors. There was one other that
I was thinking of. Oh, the memory stocks. They've been like those three groups have
really been carrying the market over the last couple of weeks. But with earnings, we're
going to get information, new information about companies that are just crushing it.
Whenever there's multiple stocks within the same theme of those that are working really well,
that's when I really try to get latched on to that theme.
Because coming out of, I know technically this wasn't a correction,
but for multiple months just going sideways,
coming out of this space that we have in the NASDAQ,
we can see a new group emerge and really start to lead us out of this base that we have in the NASDAQ, we can see a new group emerge
and really start to lead us out of here.
So going to be really focused on upcoming earnings.
And the other theme that I'm seeing, let me see if I can pin this in the nest.
Can you not pin things in the nest anymore?
Yeah, when you hit the arrow, it's at the bottom all the way to the right.
If you DM it to me, I can pin it.
But the other theme that I'm kind of looking at is the emerging markets.
And it's something that we've seen on Twitter a lot,
but I wanted to kind of actually compare like the S&P 500 versus EEM.
And it looks very clear to me on this weekly chart
that the S&P 500 is now entered like a stage four
decline against the emerging markets. And that's something that we need to be like very
cognizant of. So I'm really looking at other countries like the liquid leaders out of other
countries that are acting well, because we're continuing continuing to see capital flow out of America into more stable countries here.
So earnings, the metals, and emerging markets are the three themes that I'll be most focused on over the next couple weeks here.
Yeah, Boyce Silver's been wild for sure.
Positioning-wise, just remind me, maybe I missed it. What do you see on the positioning side of things right now as we head into this crazy earnings week?
88.5% long, which is under that 95% threshold where once you get over 95%, it's a little
tough to be like, okay, who else is going to come into the market to really push it
And the last like nine weeks, we've seen a lot of choppy action because positioning was
Then on the NASDAQ with commitment of traders, future data, that's gotten more neutral.
The Russell has gotten a little bit more long, but not at extreme levels at this point.
And then the S&P 500 is basically neutral positioning.
Maybe we'll see some people take some silver profits and put them back into tech.
We'll see what happens here as we get the report.
Nick, excited to see what stocks you're looking at picking this week. I know you've always got a litany of different
names that you're watching there with different setups and stuff. So excited for that. Sam Solid,
throw it over to you next and see what you're seeing out there in this market. Any thoughts
you have in the broader scheme of things as we come into wild? I mean, this has got to be the biggest week of the quarter.
Well, Amazon's not reporting this week.
So to me, this is not the biggest week of the quarter.
But arguably, $15 trillion of market cap.
Yeah, it's probably the biggest week of the quarter.
Anyways, what I'm kind of seeing in the market is the market's just bullish. I mean,
there's really no way to go around it. I think silver pulling back pretty strong here
stops a lot of people out of it. And that money's got to be put to work. I believe,
yeah, I mean, there are a few people that are saying it. If you see money rotate,
it's got to go somewhere, right? The money has to go somewhere.
And if this case of all that money is coming out of silver, which was actually one of the
largest markets, I think it was larger than Bitcoin at some point, or maybe it still is.
Going back to the mega caps, maybe.
That might be where it's going.
Other than that, I mean, I think it's a little bit of a wait and
see for the rest of the week i don't plan to make any moves uh this week i really haven't made that
many moves this year so far and things have been doing pretty good um unfortunately completely
like lost on the uh competition but arguably when third place is red for the last two weeks, I think it was very difficult to predict
what's going to happen in those two weeks ahead.
I mean, it looked like things were really good two weeks ago.
We were all kind of cautious, and it's like both happened, right?
You had a little bit of a drop leading into last week,
and then it went back up and then basically flat to where we were two weeks ago.
So under the hood, though, there was a
bit of rotation out of what was working two weeks ago to what is working today. So I don't think
anyone really saw that coming and very likely people who are in this competition position for
it in real time. But I mean, how can you make that call out two weeks ago? That would have been very
difficult. It's crazy. Kudos to black. We're right back to where we were two weeks ago, but we went
a long way to get here. Yeah. Yeah, I know know there's been a lot of rotation the last two weeks um but uh you know i i think
that rotates could continue i think this was probably a bit of an excuse for markets to rotate
back into mega caps back into quality possibly um you know back in a few things i it actually
it is interesting to say that what i just said, it's going back to quality,
which I do see, you know, mega caps are doing good.
A lot of quality stocks are doing good.
A lot of the high beta stuff is selling off, which, you know, they've had a crazy run last
two weeks, but GameStop is up like 8%.
I don't, I don't know if that's quality.
I don't know if that's quality.
Maybe I'm just missing something or maybe Michael Berry sees it.
Maybe I'm just missing something.
Or maybe Michael Berry sees it.
But other than that, every time the market goes below 50-day moving average, it comes
It does not stop doing that.
If you keep on trying to short the market, thinking it's going to break it, I guess maybe
you might get lucky one time, twice, or whatever. But the market's just bullish. There's no to break it, you know, like, I guess, you know, maybe you might get lucky one time,
twice or whatever, but it's just the market's just bullish. Like, there's no way around it.
The market is just straight up bullish. We're in the middle of an AI fourth industrial revolution.
Yeah, sure. It's not going to be straight up, right? We're going to have pullbacks and whatever,
which is going to happen, right? But how do you time those pullbacks? I don't know. Like, I,
I rather focus on the secular trend gains and like try to focus on these small gains. But that's just me. I mean,
you know, it clearly works for a lot of other people playing the short term trades like good,
like, you know, I'm glad it works for you. It doesn't work for me, unfortunately. And I think
it showed us that more times than not, you know, it's probably not going to work for a lot of
people, right? What we saw the last two weeks. And I don't think anyone really could have guessed that we'd be here two weeks later,
But to call it two weeks and then stay in your position within two weeks, like that's
just very difficult to do, man.
Like, I mean, this isn't a crazy time in the market where like the market's like 20% down
and just go straight up for like three, four, five, eight months.
This is, we're at all-time highs.
There's a lot of asymmetry in the market right now
with certain positions, especially in software.
But it's hard to call the bottom because, yeah,
some software stocks made some big moves today.
But if you zoom out, IGV is still in a massive downtrend.
You're close to that space.
That's what everyone's telling me on this app. Everyone's telling me it's dead. We saw
and that was a massive scare, right?
And I think this is a massive scare, too, but I think
we've got to remember, some of these
software companies are trash, right?
Some of them are just completely trash.
Rightfully so, they should be sold off.
But some of them, the baby's being thrown out with the bathwater.
I mean, like ServiceNow is a profitable company and they're growing like 20%, right?
And they dominate this entire sector when you think about IT databases and storing all the resources in the company and also ticketing systems?
I think companies help desk.
A lot of companies use ServiceNow.
Arguably, it's actually at a very attractive valuation historically.
I mean, it's certainly not a cheap company, right?
But it's at a much more attractive valuation trading near the lows where it was last April.
The market's at all-time highs.
So two things could happen. One, this could be a very big warning sign. Or two,
this could be an opportunity that we see every single year. Software goes through this pullback
every single year. If you look last year, the same thing happened. Software went through a pullback.
The year before that, software went through a pullback. But if you look at theX or the SMH over IGV ratio, we are in a secular trend when it comes to
semiconductors outperforming software, right? But you do have these periodic moments where
software leads for a little bit and then comes back, right? But until we get like that
stage two of AI where you have software finally starting to materialize profits from it,
there's going to be these random pullbacks that you do see. I mean, it's going to happen at some point.
I don't know if it's going to happen this year, but it's probably going to happen later on,
maybe in a couple of years or toward the end of the decade where software is like really going to
take off because you're going to start to see that return on the profitability standpoint,
revenue standpoint for the pre-acceleration. Like I think Srinreeha Ramaswamy, CEO of Snowflake, came out and said
an interview is like 35% growth is the road to $1 trillion in this market.
Right. So are you saying you're gonna have 35% growth?
Like, I feel like that was kind of a bomb he laid off there, but
a bomb he dropped there. Sorry.
But I do think that's, you know, now is probably not the time
where you want to chase high beta that's up like 30% year to date.
Now is probably the time where you just want to be patient.
You're going to get your opportunity.
You're going to be able to reload, get in this stuff.
I don't think that opportunity is today.
I don't think today is a day to be chasing Corwee when it's up 8%, 13%,% in the day, thinking, oh, this is a game changer.
It's like, no, it just had a big bounce from a massive downtrend.
And until we see some meaningful progress for a couple more weeks,
maybe, but one huge bounce in a massive downtrend
could just be a dead cat bounce.
Like, I'd rather just wait than to just jump on it and chase stuff.
And you could have chased
all the critical metals and all the rare earth metals this morning and gotten your face ripped
off or you could just waited right so I don't know I think patience is needs to be practiced
in this market lately you're just to have to be patient.
No, it has been very interesting the last few days, though,
to see some of these names catching a bounce. You see money flowing back into Microsoft and Meta
and coming out of maybe the IWM a little bit.
Sam, let me ask you one follow-up question.
Do you think that the market has to have the leaders lead again? I mean, it's been a healthy
spread out across all these different sectors. Obviously, some of these individual thematics are
doing their thing either way. But as a whole, do you think that we have to have mega cap tech,
you know, software, SaaS names coming back, but really like cap tech, you know, software, SaaS names coming back?
But really like the AI, you know,
Meta, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA,
do these names have to lead us?
I mean, RSP is almost at a new all-time high today.
A new closing all-time high today.
The Qs are not near an all-time high.
I think they're like 2% away from an all-time high,
but it has not made an all-time high since last October.
So SPY or S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs like every week.
So I think this recovery of mega cap,
which arguably some of these mega caps are trading at historical
cheap valuations like Meta and Amazon. If Meta and Amazon go back to all-time highs,
the Qs are going to make an all-time high because there's just so much waiting in it.
And we are a tech world, right? This entire global economy is driven on tech. So it only
makes sense that tech is going to lead this whole market up. I don't think the
market can continue going up dramatically without big tech, without mega caps. So we're going to
see what happens this week. I do think that things got a little crazy as far as evaluation goes for
Meta. And you're seeing it come back, but I want to see Meta break out of this massive 100-point range, right?
This is still a range, right?
Meta can just pull back here and go all the way back to 600 and nothing would have changed because it's in a massive range, right?
So if you think about it from a price perspective, they're all in just a massive range.
You know, NVIDIA's in a range, right?
But, like, it needs it needs to like seriously break out
I don't think you're going to see a dramatic effect
for the market going upward
without these mega caps participating.
That's like $30 trillion plus a mega cap
that only needs to make like a 2% or 3% move upward
to make the market move dramatically.
Without that, the market could just be chopping around,
which we've been since October. Like we've literally just been chopping around since october i don't think
anything's really changed october i mean the one thing is just the oxygen in the room's been sucked
out of people saying you know what i don't see value in nvidia i don't see value in amazon or
meta they're not growing blah blah blah all that stuff but the companies are performing fundamentally
really well so everyone is like jumping on the speculator bandwagon. But as we can see right now with the blow off top in
gold and silver, and probably the re-rating of some of these other companies during earnings,
you're probably likely to see the mega caps beat based on a poor sentiment. And then the other
companies end up doing worse on sentiment because they can't live up to the hype expectations
in which case you just see a rotation back to safety which is at this point mega caps so yeah
i think there's probably capital flows that are going to be coming in i mean we're already seeing
it with meta it's very likely we see that with amazon for the rest of this year especially with
amazon um cutting back on um uh expenses and at the same time working on improving their margins.
And still, they're going to be growing like crazy.
So, yeah, I think, Sam, you're right in that there's definitely going to be a re-rating eventually
and people will jump back into the mega caps.
And the ones that were laggards in the last couple of years, like Meta and Amazon,
are probably poised to gain the most.
So you're a super bearish Amazon is what you're trying to say?
Shut up. You know I'm not.
I know. I'm just kidding, Rob. I'm just kidding, Rob.
No, Amazon is pretty damn cheap.
I think people forget how much of Anthropic Amazon owns.
They didn't forget about Zoom.
They didn't forget Zoom owns a lot of Anthropic.
And all of a sudden, Zoom had like a 10% day-to-day.
It's like, well, you know, Amazon owns a lot of Anthropic.
She just has not been missing.
Even that other politician
UNH stake like the other day.
It's showing me that you're a listener.
If you're on stage, I was going to go to you next.
If not, we'll go over to Jordan instead and see if we can get Ariel up here.
We're to Jordan instead and see if we can get Ariel up here.
Jordan, we bring you in and see your perspective here as you look at this market.
We're not far from all-time highs.
I looked today, it was like a percent and a half or so on QQQ.
You know, SPY is right there as well.
I mean, not, what, 25 points away, 30 points away, something like that.
What's your take on the market as a whole?
I mean, I'm kind of with Sam. Everything looks pretty bullish overall.
Wow. I don't have reason to be bearish, to be honest. At least until on NQ, I'm looking at
some of these highs from December into that 26,100 area, then maybe we get a little bit
of rejection from there. I don't know. We'll see. This market's been extremely strong. So
I wouldn't be surprised if we run through this gap I have. But long story short, I mean,
I just don't have anything on any of these bigger timeframes that should prevent us from going higher until that $26,143 on NQ. So I'm thinking we just keep this price action up until there.
Probably F1C ignites that a little bit more. But yeah, I'm pretty much quite bullish right now
until we reach into those areas obviously there's some highs to to
get through before then but highs are not enough for me like none of these highs i think we would
just reverse off of until we actually get into uh some of these imbalances that i'm looking at
on the bigger time frame so we'll see uh be bullish. ES has obviously been stronger on this bigger timeframe.
It's already taken highs. So I would imagine that does that before NQ even reaches to the spot,
but we'll see. I'm pretty much going to only be playing longs for the most part. Obviously,
there could be some short opportunity here and there, but it's really
hard for me to want to short when, again, there's no real imbalances in price on this bigger timeframe
telling me, hey, we're going to get actual delivery of price efficiently to the downside.
It's just not here. In the past, we've had that, but I mean, it's not there. There's no inbalances.
We'll see if this market wants to reject that around for a little bit.
I would definitely imagine some rejection there initially.
I think you have to, even if you think this market's really strong.
But we get through that, then, yeah, I mean, we're not far off from the multi-highs.
Over that 270, 125 is kind of what I'm looking at.
If we can get over that side, I think it's pretty clear races to the high.
So we'll see what this market wants to do.
But we've got to be bullish this week, and we'll see how FOMC goes.
I'm not too worried about it.
I mean, I know FOMC can get crazy and earnings can get crazy.
But as of now, I mean, we know FOMC can get crazy and earnings can get crazy, but as of now,
I mean, we're just respecting order flow beautifully. So unless that changes, I'm going to stay
with these thoughts and we'll see if we can get into some of these levels I mentioned.
I think the only argument that I can see right now and that I've seen people post is the long-term trend support
from even the April tariff lows
through the last few lows that we've had
the last couple of months.
We are trading under that on the queues,
but at the same time, we are right back near highs again.
And it's really the only argument
that I've seen put out there that you could say,
okay, I can see a little bit to that.
Obviously, you're painting a broad picture in general when you look at all these things.
Higher lows, higher lows, higher lows.
It just – the charts look good.
Trading above all your major moving averages on the daily as well.
Strong structure overall.
Every dip still getting bought, as Sam was alluding to there.
Ariel, I want to have you round us out on the market sentiment thoughts here, and then we'll
get into the picks. Ariel, what's your take? I know you've been listening to a lot of the
comments here, and I'm curious your thoughts around the current market and where we're at.
Yeah, well, thanks for having me. And I actually agree with a lot of what's been said,
something that I've kind of been talking about, especially after a day like today, when you see a big, what feels like a possible top in the metals, it would be kind of hard to, you know, take out those highs on silver, especially with the volume that it's traded.
I look at the IGV and you look at obviously maybe some cybersecurity stocks and recent software
bounces. It could be that that's a place that money goes to. It could be energy. Oil and gas
could be a place that money goes to. It could be that emerging markets is where money continues to
go. So we've got plenty of places to potentially focus on. I know, you know,
you mentioned a service now, it was mentioned earlier, I think maybe by Sam possibly. And you
just look at some of that, if you're more of an investor type, I think, you know, there's definitely
going to be some software companies which are going to be trading at, you know, super friendly
valuations down here. But we just don't know if they're going to kick into an uptrend or if they're just going to rally as they have before,
only to then just be a lower high and then roll right back over.
I think that's the big, I guess you'd say elephant in the room.
Like nobody knows if this four or five, six day rally ends up with them just lower in time. So that's,
that's kind of what I'm unsure about. As for everything else, I mean,
I'd say I had a bit of a problem today looking at things that, you know,
somebody mentioned core weave and I'm completely against the idea of buying gap ups in this environment.
We have kind of seen far too much chop where, you know, CoreWeave gets a deal with NVIDIA
and then they sell off. USAR gets an investment from the US government. And then all of a sudden,
all of the rare earth stocks are pulling back. You know, the nuclear names, they've gotten a
little bit extended. And then the speculative names, in particular, your Oak Lowe's of the world selling
off, you know, your data center stocks, your most recent ones. Obviously, with CoreWeave,
you get more volatility and iron and cipher and APLD, where they're just a sloppy mess.
So I am hopeful that we could kind of start to figure out what theme is going to
continue. I mean, I look at the XLV, for instance, and I say to myself, well, the XLV doesn't look
too bad. Obviously, UNH is going to play a pretty big role in what the XLV does tomorrow. But for
the most part, the XLV still looks pretty decent.
Pharmaceuticals still look pretty decent. Biotechs, for the most part, they look all right.
So is that going to be where money persists and continues to go? Or is money going to rotate into some of these mega caps? It definitely looked like it today. QQQE is a very, very bright spot. New all-time closing highs
for equal weight Qs. Somebody mentioned the RSP. I want to say that we are, oh, if I'm not mistaken,
you know, less than, you know, two-tenths of a percent away from an all-time closing high. So
that's very good. You know, the IWM is taking a bit of a breather and that could just be,
you know, because regional banks, you know, make up a nice little portion of the Russell,
you know, is that going to, you know, kind of affect them? And I don't really want to try and
pick the bottom on anything, but you do obviously see some money going into emerging markets. Is
that going to be a theme that continues? I think that it's totally possible.
I heard Nick mention S&P 500 versus the QQQE, and it does look like the S&P 500 may be starting to
underperform. We saw it last year versus emerging markets. Does it happen again this year? And
normally trends, that's kind of how they start. They're very quiet. You don't even really know it's taking place, you know, year two, year three, year four. Right. That's that's
by the time everybody's on to the trend. And it's not really something that you hear everybody
mentioning is let's trade emerging markets. I don't think that that's something that everybody
wants to do necessarily. But, you know, all of the recent themes, they're taking a breather. You got your memory
stocks taking a breather. You got your drone space theme taking a bit of a breather. You've
got your metals today looking like maybe they finally topped. And if that's going to be the
case, where's that money going to go today? It was pretty obvious. Apple, Microsoft, Google,
ago. Today, it was pretty obvious. Apple, Microsoft, Google, and then everything else
kind of, and Meta, obviously, over the last few days. But again, same story with Meta.
I personally don't like cherry picking lows. If you're trading below a 200-day moving average,
it's kind of no good until it can at the very least get back above that 200-day moving average.
It's a tricky environment because I've been dealing with a lot of chop this year myself.
I'll go to get positioned in something, and then just a handful of days later,
it feels like I'm round-tripping my gains.
So I've got a little bit of a bias to say that things are super difficult out here
can't get myself positioned into anything cleanly except an ExxonMobil, you know, $30 or $20 lower
or an NEM for the last couple of months. But obviously we know how gold has been acting
or Alibaba out of a falling wedge. So they've been like these very slow stocks. They're,
you know, I'm like the growth side, like a Reddit. I'm just gaining no traction. And then again,
on software stocks, I can't imagine people are gaining too much traction. But there are some
interesting stocks. Like I was looking at DOC and today, and that looks very constructive.
And it's a software stock. So I want to remain optimistic that money can continue to go there. But again, I just don't know. I'll react more to it when I see cleaner
setups that are actually following through to the upside versus anticipating that it's actually has
to happen. So it's kind of my thoughts. Yeah, well put there. I think you hit on a lot of great
things. Also the, you know, that last piece piece really stuck out to me because I really want to take some shots at some stuff here. And I'd rather be a little bit late, maybe a little bit more confirmation. I don't know. It's like I kind of have this weird feeling, but everything still, when I look at it, it still looks fine. And hopefully maybe some of these metals cool off, that money flows back out into the rest of the market. We'll see. We'll see. A lot of information coming.
And with that, Wolf, quickly, that's exactly how most stocks will move. They'll make that initial
move up and then they'll consolidate, they'll digest, and then they'll go for that next move up.
It's very, very typical. And a lot of these software stocks, like if you're looking at
ServiceNow, they haven't even had that first leg higher.
They're on like their third up day in a row into a bunch of overhead supply.
In some people's perspectives, they'll look at that and say, these are very undervalued.
I want to buy them, hold them for the long term.
From a trader's perspective, you're holding a stock in a downtrend into a bunch of supply.
At the very least, like in Meta's case, you get over the 200-day simple moving average.
You're at the very least not in a downtrend over the last 200 days. And then it'll go up,
it'll digest, and then they'll, as a group, start to act better. And we've seen the same thing with
banks, right? When you come off
the April lows, they all go up together, they digest for a few weeks, and then they all break
out, right? Semiconductor, similar story. And then there's just a handful of semiconductors
that are left that are acting fantastic, right? Your ASML, your KLAC, your LRCX, and then obviously
some of these memory stocks. But the rest of the group just looks kind of, AVGO looks rough.
NVIDIA has been going nowhere for months.
And we just don't know where money is going to go at this point.
I'd rather be just a little bit late, but have a bit more confirmation that these things
are in renewed uptrends, which we just don't know for the software side of things.
Absolutely. And all the information that we're going to get over the next, we'll call it two
weeks just to be nice to Sam, whose hand is up right now. Sam, I'll give you the two weeks this
week, ton of information next week as well. A lot of earnings coming down the pipe. You could go out
further than that if you wanted to, we can just move that goalpost wherever. But the point being, a ton of information is coming
at us with the earnings season kicking off. Sam, go ahead. Jump in with your thoughts.
Yeah, I was just going to say, I was just getting onto it. I think the going consensus here is like,
dude, it's just better to wait than to just like act on like one or two
days of moves out of nowhere. Like we've seen like a massive trend shift in the last month,
because I know there's like a lot of people listening. And obviously, it's not financial
advice. But we've seen a lot of directional moves happen in the last couple of weeks. And like one
or two days doesn't like change the entire story. Like, you know, it's better to ride the trend and to call the bottoms with size like that. I don't know. That's just that's just
all I'm saying. Wait, did you say this is a two week pick? No, no, no, no, no, no. We're not doing
that again. We only did that. Don't do that. We only did that because of the because of the
holiday. Yeah, we are doing just the normal. Tomorrow's open through the following Monday's close.
As you know, back to normal, your normal scheduled programming on that. So I was just saying,
the information that we're going to get over the next two weeks from all the different earnings
will definitely give us a better picture of where the market wants to go next. You look at tech,
we've been consolidating really in a range since late October. We really haven't gone anywhere. And you can look at, you know, IWM's
outperformed. You can look at the S&P and it's marginally higher. It's exploded a little bit
higher, but really we've gone nowhere in the last two months plus at this point, almost three months.
So a lot of consolidation here. It'll be very interesting.
Let's jump into the picks here a little bit.
Jordan, did we get you back on stage?
Well, Jordan, you're going to go first here.
I'm going to call out Gav.
He was our current champion. He picked KGC and AMKR.
So KGC, which is Kinross Gold.
I mean, he worked for them last week.
Kinross Gold and Amcor are Gavs picks.
Jordan, your two picks for the week, sir.
Long T-triple-Q, short S-triple-Q.
I honestly thought about doing that if you didn't.
I honestly thought about it.
Don't expect too many short trades from me the rest of the week.
Second place finisher last week.
One of the two positive returns that we did have.
So however many Qs is that?
I'm just going to start saying three triple Qs.
Jordan is pulled up long.
Boy, I cannot get that out. T QQQQ, QQQ.
Boy, I cannot get that out.
That one tongue-tied me hard.
I should have that down, Jordan.
That's why I just say triple Q.
You should have his balance.
This is just embarrassing at this point.
T triple Q is long. S tripletriple-Q is short.
That's a little bit easier.
All right, Jordan, great picks there.
We'll see how it plays out.
I hope for my portfolio's sake, I hope you're right.
And we'll see a lot of information coming, like I said earlier.
Chris, what two picks do you have for us this week?
Do you want leverage or just Meta Amazon?
No, just Meta and Amazon.
M-E-T-A, Meta, Facebook Long, and Amazon.
A-M-Z-N from Chris Patel.
Nick Drendel, which two picks are you going with this week?
So the first one I'm going to go with is JMIA on the long side, Jamea.
And this stock had an awesome, I mean, last two years really,
coming back from the dead from basically a dollar,
ran up to just under $15.
To start the year, went through a low volume pullback into the 50-day moving
average, nice little bounce, and now we're getting tight below the 10 and the 20. Got
a little support gap there as well. And we've seen a lot of stocks pull into the 50-day
moving average. And in this market, that's really been the opportune time to get involved. So emerging markets as a potential theme,
JMIA is an African company. So this is kind of fitting in with that theme of capital flowing out
of the US into the rest of the world. And we've got a couple of tight days here to manage our
risk against the 50-day moving average. And if we break below that, obviously, you manage your risk in real time and get out of there. We'll go JMIA on the long side.
And then I think we'll just go...
Let's go short AQ. Is it AQS? No. What is the double leveraged silver?
gapping down like a ton right now, so
this will be tricky with the competition,
metal names is still like my,
it's my largest position right now and continues to be like a main focus the
All right. So you're going to be long J M I A Jumia,
which some say is the Amazon of Africa is what I hear all the time is that
one's described long J M I A and then short the ultra shares silver A G Q there from Nick
It feels like the blow off.
Um, it just, boy, it's wild.
I don't know if you've ever, if you look at the futures on that thing, but like one
point on the future is like $5,000.
These moves that it's making just back and forth.
I mean, on a five to 10 minute candle,
I can't imagine the margin needed to even trade that thing right now.
But there's obviously plenty of other instruments.
AGQ now on the radar for a lot of you guys.
It's still, gosh, is it down 9% after hours?
Yeah, I mean, the silver, this was a picture, picture perfect blow off top.
Like absolutely one that every trader needs to take pictures of on the way up.
Exactly what you wanted to see.
Volume increasing and going absolutely insane today.
It was already the highest volume ever, like two hours into this session, which is incredible.
You had two expansion bars before today's massive gap up in push.
You see all the social sentiment saying,
okay, now we just have to own silver.
You had the, who's that gold bull?
Peter, not Peter Schiff, Peter Schiff.
He was saying that this isn't a bubble
and it's like, okay, man,
This is the time to take profits
So picture, picture perfect,
Everyone should take a picture of this
and study it for future setups.
Would you recommend shorting
Because that's a pretty big um
silver miner that's been running up that's the one that i've got a comment on that one uh
coincidentally that one was halted today and i don't think i've ever seen a company sell
uh any of their assets any better than heckla just just did today. They sold their, and they're the United States's,
I want to say, largest and oldest silver miner. And they sold one of their assets in Alberta,
Canada today for close to $600 million. It was halted on the unhalt. It started to fall
immediately. And that is about the moment where silver started to um come undone about
20 minutes later uh 30 minutes so yeah i hats off to heckla's um board for orchestrating a sale
at the highs um i don't think i've ever seen that before. So really, really. Yeah, incredible.
They might have caused the highs.
They top, dude, they were halted today.
And I was like, why is this thing halted?
They sold a miner of theirs, which digs out gold and silver in Alberta,
even though they're the United States' oldest.
And I want to say largest silver miner. I could though they're the United States' oldest, and I want to say
largest silver miner. I could be wrong about the largest part, but definitely the oldest.
And all of a sudden that news comes out and it effectively, they immediately start to sell off.
And you'll obviously notice the weight that they carry towards the SILJ, which is the Silver
Junior Miners ETF, because they're the largest weighted. So the
moment they started to sell off Silver Junior Miners, your PAAS starts to go with it even more,
your CDE, et cetera, and then not long after, Silver right behind it. So I thought it was
perfectly orchestrated by Heckler. Yeah, I mean, I had a brief short position on it very, very briefly,
only because I looked at the technicals were just way overbought. But now I actually might do a
speculative short play on them because they've been re-rated to crazy valuations now. And the
thing is their production, even though it is very valuable, they can't ramp up production nearly as
fast. Now this transaction, in my opinion, you're right.
They're probably super smart in saying, look, we're getting close to the top.
It's time to protect some of these profits and take some off the top.
So, yeah, I'm agreeing with you.
All right, so we got those two picks in there.
AGQ was the one that Nick Drundel took short. HL was the one that nick dwindle took short hl was
the one that we were discussing there a little bit ariel do you want to go ahead and throw in
your two picks yeah i'm actually on the same side as nick i think um you know silver definitely has
some more downside and playing a long in the ultra short uh silver long ZSL. And then similar story for the gold miners,
long dust. And dust is the 2X leveraged short gold miners.
All right. So ZSL is the ultra short silver ETF there, ZSL.
So obviously short silver, short the inverse.
And then Dust, same story there with Dust, D-U-S-T from Ariel.
I just want that money to flow into mega cap tech.
That would just make my portfolio happy.
But whatever, take some profits.
I'm interested in telling you guys that short.
I just, the timing of it is, has been so tricky.
I caught a little bit of a silver short before and got out of it, thankfully.
And then boy, I'm looking at this now going, okay, where, where do you do it? And boy, today, to Nick's point earlier, definitely
looks like, hey, that's maybe it. And with all the stuff coming this week, it's like, okay,
let's take profits and shift it. It just all kind of makes sense. I love the kind of consensus view
we have here on that. Sam Solid, which two picks do you have? All right. So I'm going to go along the thematics, the themes ETF-wise, WIC.
There's a lot of mega cap exposure there, semiconductor exposure,
basically anything that will capture all the upside
if we get some really good earnings this week from the mega caps.
And I'm also going to go along, I believe there's a, I don't know.
I was thinking about going along Nubank because I am bullish emerging markets right now.
I'm not, I don't have a position in Nubank anymore.
Mercado Libre didn't make a really nice move to the upside.
Nick was mentioning that earlier.
Emerging markets could see some rotation back.
I'm surprised China didn't really get that much rotation, but it's probably from fear
But anyways, I'm'm gonna do FBL
that's a two times meta ETF I'm basically betting two dollars and Chris bet a dollar so
all right one up in Chris there with FBL and then wise WZ-E was the other one, the thematic.
Wait, is it Z? I thought it was S-E.
What did I say, Z? It's W-I-S-E.
If I said Z, I apologize. W-I-S-E. You're probably typing up ZSL and trying to buy some after hours, man.
Well, it's probably too late now.
Where's my risk-reward? I don't know.
I know people have been loading that thing for a while. We'll see.
But the WISE, the themes ETFs, the WISE holdings,
it's basically MegaCap Tech, AMD, Veritone, Intel, Apple, NVIDIA,
Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcoms, looking through the list
of what all the top holdings are in this set, WISE.
If I said Z, I apologize.
W-I-S-E on the long side from Sam
Solid. And Sam, it's funny, you mentioned both of my two picks for the week. Two of my largest
positions. I love the emerging market theme. I love these two companies. I'm staying away from
these earnings until I kind of get a better picture as we were kind of discussing earlier.
these earnings until I kind of get a better picture as we were kind of discussing earlier.
So I am picking MercadoLibre, M-E-L-I, Melly. And I'm going to take NUG, which is Nubank 2x
leveraged from Leverage Share. So that's Nubank and MercadoLibre, except it's NUG,
the 2x leverage, which almost made an all-time high today. Melly had a good volume and a good move today as well, trying to work its way back up, hopefully
getting back into an uptrend after being in a downtrend in the last few months.
I mean, that we saw Nick's charts up there, emerging markets.
I really think there's a chance to outperform some of these names.
And those are my two favorite names.
So I'm just going to stick with those until we find out some more. Boy, I see Jordan's pick. I see some of
these other, and I'm like, it could be long some of these names into the earnings. But it's just,
boy, it's a tough spot for me. So I'm going to stay away from it. Play it safe.
I'm going to stay away from it, play it safe.
Melly and N-U-G, Nubank 2X Leverage.
All right, boom, there we are.
I tell you what, if you're in the audience
and you haven't followed all the great speakers
and panelists that we have up here,
They speak in a bunch of different spaces.
They do a lot of different trading,
different analysis, YouTube shows, Discord rooms,
all kinds of great stuff.
Definitely make sure you go in and check them out. The whole space, as shows, Discord rooms, all kinds of great stuff. Definitely make sure you
go in and check them out. The whole space, as always, is recorded. So if you missed any of the
great thoughts shared throughout the last hour and five minutes, you can listen to all that in a
recording as soon as I close this down here in just a moment. I'm tweeting out those pics right
now. Let me make sure I almost missed Sam's. There we go. Boom. That tweet is out
there. Let us know who you think is going to win. Which is your favorite pick going into all these
MAG7 earnings, FOMC, all the different things happening later this week. We'll see how it goes.
And that's it for a great Monday here in the Wolf family of networks all over the place.
We've been on spaces all over the place.
We've still got stuff going on.
And of course, our pinned tweet, as always, is pretty much all of our stuff.
I mean, Sam Solid's been up here.
If you're not following the Wolf Financial YouTube channel,
you'll see he's got the Solid report that he comes out with some great information,
Make sure you're checking that show out as well.
We're live trading all day pretty much on the Wolf Trading YouTube channel.
We've got the spaces going everywhere mixed in.
Have a great Monday evening.
If you've got inclement weather, stay safe.
Hopefully all you guys are okay out there.
If you don't have power, charge up that phone so you can
listen to all of our stuff. We'll keep you in tune with
everything. And I'm going to close her down.
We'll see you guys tomorrow
Oh, what time does that even start?
7 a.m. Eastern. If you're up
obviously if you're in Europe, definitely check that out.
But the EU space has all kinds of
great cross-continent thoughts even, of course, over there too. So check that out. That's our
next live content. I'm signing off. See you guys tomorrow. Thank you.