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Stocks getting killed & Bitcoin holding strong | Market Check
Recorded: April 4, 2025 Duration: 1:17:58Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent episode of Market Check, the team discussed the resilience of crypto markets amidst significant declines in traditional equities, highlighting Bitcoin's strength and the potential for a market recovery. The conversation also touched on the implications of Federal Reserve policies and the influence of macroeconomic factors on crypto dynamics.
Full Transcription
Good morning, good evening, good afternoon, wherever you are in the world.
Thank you so much for tuning in to another episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
My name is Max. I'm the CEO of Because Bitcoin.
I'm joined today by our CFO, Tucker, also known as Hagrid,
and one of our top analysts and portfolio managers here at BB,
Big Louie T., also known as Big Louie Meatstick, two absolute giga chads. We're going to be joined
by Tommy, the quant as well. He should be on, I think, in about 10 minutes roughly, so we can
look forward to that. But in the meantime, we're going to have a great start to the show, guys.
Do us a solid, Hit that like button.
Call your grandma.
Call your mom.
Call your sister.
Call your mailman.
Call somebody.
Tell them that, hey, here's the link.
Market check is on right now.
Stocks are nuking and crypto is holding up.
You can't miss this one.
Guys, this type of price action makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside, right?
Type of price action makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside, right?
In crypto, for like the past year, we have been the biggest losers of every trading session.
It's like we pump, we immediately sell off.
We get good news, we nuke.
We get bad news, we nuke more.
Equities pump, crypto drops.
It's like we just can't win, but not today.
Today, we win.
Today, we are not the biggest losers.
The NASDAQ is in freefall. The S&P is in freefall. We're on the brink of getting some circuit
breakers, but Pepe is up 5.5% on the day today, and Bitcoin does not look like it wants to quit.
on the day today. And Bitcoin does not look like it wants to quit. I love it. I absolutely love it.
I don't love that there's people in pain because their portfolios are down, but I love
that after the beating that we've taken the past year, just nonsense in our markets.
Finally, we're holding strong and showing signs of life that not even the greatest companies to ever exist throughout the history of time and publicly traded markets can withstand.
We are withstanding.
And I love it.
It makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.
Let me enjoy it today.
I'm smiling big today.
Finally, crypto bros have something to smile about, even if it just is we're not nuking right but i want to
talk more about that today on the show with tucker and with louie i want to talk to you guys about
this we were speculating yesterday because we saw something similar nasdaq was down about five percent
on the day roughly i don't know exactly what it closed at but but a horrible day. VIX was at like 27, 28. Bitcoin and crypto right? We took our medicine weeks ago and we're,
we're, we're good, right? We took our medicine. We're good. We're just going to chill and wait
for global markets to find their floor and hopefully recover, right? We weren't so sure
about it, but I'm telling you guys, I am seeing a lot more reason to kind of double down on that notion.
After today, where equities once again are limiting down,
not just our market, but foreign markets, foreign indexes as well,
limiting down, fear widespread.
And guess what's holding strong?
Crypto.
I feel as though there is no good reason or explanation for the NASDAQ and for the S&P to be down the percentages that they are over the past two, three sessions
and for crypto to still be holding its floor.
I don't think there's any good reason to argue against the bottom is in, we're holding strong.
We're just going to put in a monster bounce as soon
as equities put in a bounce here right I don't think you can really at this point argue that
that's not happening I don't think the argument of oh wait till crypto catches up to equities
I don't think that that argument's valid anymore I think I think you had a chance to nuke crypto today, but the fact that we're seeing a bid across the board is telling me, okay, I think markets are now going to start pricing in early, more rate cuts, and maybe even a transition into QE.
And that's why we're seeing this bid with crypto.
But I'd love to know how you guys are interpreting it.
I do, because I look at this pair, right?
Bitcoin, SPX, that tucker you have pulled
up here this doesn't look like a chart that's about to imminently start nuking it looks like
we front ran the equities dump and we're good to go but tell me if i'm wrong right i'd love to know
how you guys are feeling about it i think you're not wrong i think you're not wrong um just a quick thing though powell powell that's talking about
10 minutes which uh we should get some i'm sorry to cut you out there's a headline that just came
out on cnbc break is president donald trump says fed chair powell should cut interest rates and
stop playing politics here we go oh my gosh? He had to do that right before he speaks?
I mean, it sounds like he's fighting the Fed.
Who could have foreseen that was going to happen?
That's so unlike anything Trump has ever done.
Wow.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Balls in the Fed's court.
That was sarcastic, by the way, guys.
I know.
Balls in the Fed's court.
Sorry, Tucker.
You're about to cook.
I just wanted to tell you that that
headline came out because that was oh i know and i wanted to just tell you that he talks in 10
minutes because i mean i feel like we're gonna get some some on-show volatility once again um
but yeah i mean it's it's hard to um i don't know, we're going into a weekend, obviously, right?
So, you know, I'm going to stay somewhat cautiously optimistic.
But yeah, it does seem that we front ran the dump and now equities are dumping and we're just hanging out.
So that's good, I think.
That's good.
Obviously, this is the BTC-SBX pair.
We can look at it against QQQ or IWM or whatever.
But actually, IWM might be interesting.
IWM is getting abused today.
Yeah,
I know.
That's why I wanted to pull up the pair.
I mean,
yeah,
I think that looks very bullish to me.
I mean,
yeah,
it's just Bitcoin IWM just kind of goes up into the right
it just genuinely looks like that thing's about to start its next leg higher this is like 100
like 105k bitcoin right here is basically what that would be you know yeah i love that we swept
all those lows too like can you draw from that low right there?
Draw from the lowest low right there, the first one.
Draw a line. I love that we took that out too. That's really clean.
And then maybe a diagonal across the highs
maybe if you're up for it.
Diagonal, a little across the highs. Maybe if you're up for it. Diagonal.
A little breakout.
Yeah.
I like that.
I like that.
Yeah, the back test.
Dude, it looks clean.
I really think this is going to be like a Q4 2023 type of thing.
But we'll see.
We'll see.
We'll see. It's just like there's just no
other, like there's just no good reason
I mean the NASDAQ and the S&P
are having two of their worst back-to-back
sessions since COVID.
And crypto
is just like completely
insulated from it right now.
You can't really argue that like wait till crypto catches up to stocks.
I'm like, that's actually kind of the opposite.
What we've seen during historically these times of turbulence is Bitcoin leads the dump.
Bitcoin leads the recovery.
Mr. Meatstick, I'm hungry.
Help me out here.
Yeah. I mean, we talked about this. I mean, it's been a while since we talked about it. We were talking about it about a month ago where historically what we see, Bitcoin and crypto,
am I a little blurry right now? What's going on here?
Front run the tops and they front run the bottoms, right?
And I've shown examples in 2023 for the S&P where S&P had a first initial nuke, bounced, rolled over a second time, went for another 4%, 5%, 6% to the downside more.
And Bitcoin had already found its floor. And while AS&P was
doing that second drop in 2023, Bitcoin put in a 50% ripper to the upside. And that's kind of what
I was pointing to about a month ago. And now we're seeing that, right? We're seeing the second rollover come out of this drop out of equities quite fast, right? Quite a fast drop. But we're really seeing, you know, Bitcoin and crypto hold
up very well for the circumstances given. And it's just, you know, showing again that,
you know, we front run these moves on equities and as well as, you know, not from the topping
standpoint, but also from the bottoming standpoint.
So, and again, you know, I tweeted this on Wednesday and I was half joking, but I'm,
I'm half serious where like, there's no tariffs on Bitcoin and crypto guys.
This is a, this is a, a, a macro global trade issue.
Um, and sure, you know, Bitcoin and crypto are correlated to these asset classes.
But more than ever now, Bitcoin and crypto is now distinguished from the rest of these asset
classes. These crypto assets have nothing to do with this global trade issue. This is a global company
issue. Companies globally have to deal with this. Countries have to deal with this. US companies
have to deal with this and can have some backlash. Bitcoin and crypto, not so much.
Not so much. There's nothing that really affects Bitcoin and crypto other than overall macroeconomics.
But I really do think we could see a scenario where I know it sounds crazy, but where Bitcoin and crypto as an asset class become more of a uncorrelated, more or less safe haven for people to store their money right now and kind of hedge themselves against this environment.
Louis, you said something profound this morning on the Discord call with our community.
Many such cases.
You said farts are not.
What did you say?
No tariffs on farts.
That's what it was.
Yeah.
That was profound.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And you're right.
You're totally right. Yeah. And you're right. You're totally right.
Yeah.
And by that, I mean FAR coins, guys.
FAR coins.
So, ooh, an FOMC meeting date in Joy Orr.
Of course.
So, okay. So, Tucker, I guess, and Louie, whoever, okay.
So Tucker, I guess, and Louie, whoever, right?
DXY is puking.
Yeah.
Look at that.
Yields puking.
We talked about a potential bounce at this little spot yesterday on DXY, right?
or down DXY, right? Makes sense. But generally still puking. But we haven't seen those effects
Makes sense.
But generally still puking.
immediately translate over into higher prices for crypto, which as we know, week by week doesn't
matter too much. But higher timeframe, very strong negative correlation between DXY and crypto. DXY up, crypto down, and vice versa, right? What we're seeing right now is
maybe a lag. Do we think that now is the time for DXY to kind of continue its plunge down
and finally see that long-awaited, you know, rocket higher for crypto off the back of a
weakening dollar, yields dropping dropping more cuts being priced in
and maybe just maybe qt stopping and qe transitioning given what equities are doing
do we think now is going to be that transition anybody's free to answer of course
i mean it's it's as good a time you know as any right um i don't know it's definitely good a time as any.
I don't know.
It's definitely bold to call for that transition.
That's a big deal.
But I don't know. I don't know.
I think we should pull up the correlation coefficient, honestly.
That's what we should do.
Should we pull up Jerome Powell right now?
Listen to him in the background?
I feel like that might be...
Let's see.
Boom.
That's kind of something I want to listen to here.
You want to pull it up, Louis?
Yeah, let me see if I can find it here.
Tucker, I made one of these that colors the candles, man.
Let me share with you my premier version of it.
Wow, wow, wow.
You wouldn't get it.
It's not live yet.
So when it goes live, we can't split screen this, can we?
I don't think so.
Or maybe what I could do is I could pull it up on my phone
and we can listen to the audio while we chart.
Maybe that's better.
I mean, it looks like as it gets more correlated, that's good.
You kind of want to see.
Yeah.
All right.
Hang on. Let me show you.
You know what I'm saying, though?
This will create a nice little visual.
I kind of want this thing to bottom.
Manage access.
Hang around.
All right, Tucker.
Pull up the one that I just shared with you.
It's better.
What's it called?
Correlation coefficient.
I don't know.
Maybe you need to refresh your page.
Yeah, top. yeah top up up up up up up it starts with a c so right there so it'll color the candles for you
so it'll color the candles for you.
Hang on, let me get rid of it.
I think you did with Bitcoin,
so you need to change it to yields.
So it'll color the candles based on the...
Turn off your borders on your candles.
Like on the chart.
Yeah, turn off your borders.
I did.
So it's the same correlation coefficient indicator,
but it candles the colors.
So it just helps visualize a little bit better.
I mean, I think you want to see it.
I think you want to see it going up.
There's not as much signal, honestly.
I kind of like the other one.
Because we've been in this weird regime for a while where we've actually been moving.
It's been a positive correlation, right?
So like Dixie up, Bitcoin up, yields up, Bitcoin up.
But like longer term in previous bull markets, it's been the opposite more or less.
So look, so.
I mean, you kind of want the thing to go up, right?
But maybe look at a previous bull market, right?
Because I feel like this has been a weird time.
But maybe I'm wrong on it.
I mean, when did this thing bottom?
I guess you can get rid of this.
Yeah, no, this is what you...
You want the correlation to be tighter, for sure.
But yeah, let me... get rid of this yeah no this is what you you want the correlation to be tighter for sure um but yeah
this yeah you you want the correlation to be tight
can you guys hear that? No.
Are you playing something?
I have the power speech.
Let me try to pull over my phone.
Maybe that'll work.
So we just at least have it in the background. Clearer, we will have a better sense of their implications for the economy and for monetary
policy.
Can you guys hear that?
Can you share your screen so you can see it?
Yeah.
I'll do that and not as sick
where is it i just had it i did hear it for a second no i heard it for sure
you guys hear that yeah monetary policy can you turn it up a little bit or no more recently progress toward our two percent
let me switch my mic it might be better hold on total pce prices rose 2.5 over the 12 months
ending in february core pc funds which exclude the volatile food and energy categories
looking ahead higher tariffs will be working our way through our economy and are likely to raise inflation in coming quarters. Reflecting this, both survey and market-based measures of near-term inflation expectations have moved up.
It's still pretty quiet.
By most measures, longer-term inflation expectations, those beyond just the next few years, remain well-anchored and consistent with our 2% inflation goal.
We remain committed to returning inflation sustainably to our 2% objective.
A little better.
Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation.
The new administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas. Trade,
immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Our monetary policy stance is well positioned to deal
with the risks and uncertainties we face as we gain a better understanding of the policy changes
and their likely effects on the economy. It is not our role to comment on those policies. Rather, we make an assessment of
their likely effects, observe the behavior of the economy, and set monetary policy in a way that
best achieves our dual mandate goals. We have stressed that it will be very difficult to assess
the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty about the details, such as what will be tariffed,
at what level, and for what duration,
and the extent of any retaliation from our trading partners.
While uncertainty remains elevated,
it is now becoming clear that tariff increases
will be significantly larger than expected.
And the same is likely to be true of the economic effects,
which will include higher inflation and slower growth.
The size and duration of these effects remains uncertain. to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.
The size and duration of these effects remains uncertain.
While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,
it's also possible that the effects could be more persistent.
Avoiding that outcome would depend
on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,
on the size of the effects,
and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices. Our obligation is to keep
longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, and to make certain that a one-time increase in
the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. We'll continue to carefully
monitor the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments
to our policy stance.
It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.
We understand the benefits of a solid economy where workers can find jobs and inflation
is low and predictable. We also understand that elevated levels of unemployment or inflation
can be damaging and painful for communities, families, and businesses.
That is why we at the Fed will continue to do everything we can
to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.
Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
So, same. So he literally said nothing. thank you and i look forward to your questions so same
so he literally said nothing he said nothing yeah he said wow that's great i mean i don't
think any of us expected him to come in here and be like emergency 50 basis point cut with qe
you know like but he really didn't say anything, man. He literally just said, like, we're going to stick to our mandate of 2%
and it's too early to tell if monetary policy needs to be adjusted, right?
But I don't see anything, like, nuking off of that.
No, I don't either.
Tommy, hello?
Hello.
Tommy, when emergency cuts,
what are you eating?
That's a great question.
That is not being accommodative still.
I guess we'll just kind of have to see how things go from here.
They don't do something.
The VIX is going to do some nasty, nasty things.
All right, let's get this off the screen.
We're not learning anything.
Whatever.
Let's get back to the charts.
You're not studying, Max?
I got yeeted. maybe we'll get something
more same nonsense
they're gonna wait too long to do anything
like normal
for usual
sweet jesus okay so when's the next fomc what's the date of it early may 7th early may oh shit
it is may 21st is that right i thought it was the 7th. If this keeps on through May...
Is this wrong?
May 21st?
No, it's definitely not.
They don't need to wait for the meeting to cut, though, right?
No, no.
Well, if they do it in between meetings,
then it's an emergency, technically,
or whatever.
Can Janet Yellen
do something?
She can go to prison at the end of the at the end of the cycle
we should check in on the RRT
the Yellen index
if Janet Yellen goes to prison
Tommy you're officially the goat man
that's all I've ever seen
what was the other one what was the other one you're officially the goat man
what was the other one what was the other one
oh the tga but what's the ticker i think the question is like how many firms right now are looking at this Friday going,
we need to offload all of our risks going into the weekend because I'm afraid of what happens Monday.
Oh, 100%.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think we need this to go back up that's what needs to happen well that's nuking yeah it is bitcoin doing okay
the bitcoin strength is pretty crazy i i almost like hate to say that
going into a weekend it's okay tommy it's okay you can say it yeah i mean maybe they end up
doing some sort of raid on the upper 70s but as long as that's not breaking then
i think this uh this relative strength is exactly that right relative strength
we were talking about that like right when we got on the stream, Tommy,
that if you had asked me or told me,
on Monday, hey Max,
NASDAQ on Thursday is going to go down 5%,
and then the next day another 4%.
What do you think Bitcoin's trading at?
I would have been like 74.
At least, yeah, probably lower than that.
Yeah. So I think at this point, it's fair to say Bitcoin most likely, given what we're seeing,
front ran the equities dump and is also front running a bottom.
Similar to what happened in Q4 of 2023.
It might be early to say that, but there is some serious strength on Bitcoin.
There's no other reason why crypto should be holding up the way that it is, given how equities are trading.
Unless the case is that we front ran the dump, and have also front ran a bottom.
What is gold nuking to?
Oh my. That's a big drop it's a huge drop big drop for gold
so yeah gold was due for a pullback though
i'm surprised silver then gave up its entire bull market man look at that silver is the eth of precious metals yeah
yeah and also of stability that's really what the business that we're in is providing financial
and macroeconomic stability
what is this kind of laughing about
is he saying i can still see i mean we could just be like setting up for a little sweep
of these local lows on bitcoin and e but i think anybody that is expecting us to run
like the lows all the way down at 77 or 76k what's happening is they need to be lowering their targets right
because i'm seeing it's kind of like well you're seeing all these tidy if we break that low we're
only going to sell off like 10 or 15 percent more than those prices i doubt that's the case you're
probably going to sell a whole lot harder because at that point you'd be catching up to uh the move
in epities yeah we gotta we should mute that we should be
is that louis all that's gonna sort out the forms
hey what's up can you mute that yeah sorry oh you're good
said anything in the question part but it doesn't look like it
anything in the question part but it doesn't look like it
just yapping yeah dude this is just crazy crazy crazy downtrend
i think it's been uh wait what is the bit next open interest look like i wonder
tommy have you seen trump's
uh statements to powell this morning, he's not happy with Jerome.
No, he's not.
I feel like Trump
is going to win this, man. There's no better
schoolyard bully than Donald Trump, man.
He's going to get what he wants.
I agree, honestly. I'm not quite sure what's going to happen.
Maybe
the 10-year puts in a bounce here,
but maybe it just keeps nuking.
TLT looks super bullish here, man.
I know.
Yes, it does.
Look at that perfect gap fill at the low
and then just scooped it out of there.
I know.
Look at that.
Bitfinex is bidding.
I like that. what bitcoin what about eth
i prefer not to speak
i prefer not if i speak i'm in trouble they are not bidding
the vix still at 40 man they need to crush that that's not good yeah i mean if you get uh if you
get stocks we got an update here it's they just put out a feds rate path uh first cut june second
cut july third cut september fourth cut october fifth cut december 25s
say but i think we're still gonna have probabilities actually this isn't but
first cut in june is 100 certain and then second cut in july is 99 certain third cut september 94
percent certain what's the may probability? Zero probably, right?
I don't see.
It just starts at June.
It starts at June.
Hang on.
I'm going to launch.
May would be interesting.
Yeah, May 7th meeting, 41% probability of a cut that's interesting
i think we're gonna see that creep up probably i agree yeah i agree 100% you're probably gonna
see a shit ton of rate cuts before june at this rate or in you get a ton i don't know i mean i think the 10 year looks absolutely awful
i mean how long have we compared the 10 year to the bitcoin top
from uh from spring 2021 yeah no i know it's uh
spring 2021 yeah no i know it's uh
yeah i mean that's probably it that's probably it for the 10 year
it's absolutely fried i mean if you just want to throw the bitcoin fractal over that even
i do not buy for a second
that there's only going to be one
rate cut in June.
I mean, dude,
the MAG 7's down 25%
from the all-time high
looking at all of them together.
It's like we're kind of getting into that territory, you know?
It's like everything, you know, foreign markets getting crushed,
US markets getting crushed beyond just the MAG7.
I mean, you're starting to see some assets,
not just Bitcoin show some relative strength, right?
Like some of these
other ones that have been kind of beaten down early on uh rebounding like a nike for example
showing some relative strength today dollar generals and other that's been showing strength
i mean these are kind of like anecdotal ultimately but um you know i do think that you are seeing
some i mean hopefully some signs of reversal or else the VIX is about to blow through 45.
And in that case,
who knows what's going to happen.
But yeah, I mean,
does that not look like Bitcoin
right before it completely waterfalled?
It looks like that thing's headed to 2.5%, honestly.
Yeah.
I do not buy for a second
that they are only doing one cut into June.
Yeah, that looks abysmal, man.
How about GME up 5% on the day?
Dude, Pepe up 5%.
Doge up 3%.
Give me 2.5 to 10 years.
Help me make sense of it.
Is it just people basically forecasting like
lower interest rates and qe and they're like fuck it let's just get in front of this and
bid shit coins because they're gonna pump gme specifically is going to be more and more linked
to bitcoin now so honestly i think this is where you start getting really bullish crypto like this
10-year collapses and we and we get some cuts because
that's what the 10-year looks like man this does not look like they're gonna hold out for another
two months not at all now they gotta do something or else they ruin everything that they've been
trying to do well i mean well not really but they, but they got to let the, let everything go to shambles.
They won't let everything go to shambles, man. I mean, everything's going to shambles, man. Like
they're not, I'm telling you it's Trump's overreach in dictating fed policy, which is
supposed to be an independent branch from anything public official.
It's not supposed to be influenced by the president at all.
The fact that you have Trump posting on True Social basically slandering Powell,
saying he's too slow to act always,
and he should stop trying to be a politician and cut rates.
It's like
the writing is on the wall here you know the writing it is clear as day what's happening
in my opinion uh you're about to see things get a little bit worse and then you're gonna see
i mean there like i said there is no better schoolyard bully than Trump. And I'm telling you right now, Powell is public enemy number one right now.
He's going to be, as the pressure gets applied to Trump,
guess who he's going to take that out on and blame?
Powell.
These aren't my tariffs.
These are not the problems.
It's Powell.
He's doing the wrong thing.
He's going to divert all of that negative attention to Powell
until he gets what he wants.
It's going to happen. of that negative attention to Powell until he gets what he wants. It's going to happen.
It's clear as day.
I don't believe that Powell is going to be firm enough on his
we remain committed to our long-term target of 2%.
I think he's going to give in and he's going to bend the knee
to whatever Trump is bullying him into.
More rate cuts, probably QE starting up by summertime.
I find it very unlikely that they actually remain committed
to their long-term target of 2%.
Honestly, I think they're going to get bullied
into pivoting pretty quickly here.
Yeah, I do too.
I don't think he's going to hold out.
Dude, you don't want Trump
you don't want to be Trump's
main focus when his policy
is crashing global markets
and he's gonna blame the whole thing
on Powell man the whole thing
I think we all kind of know that like inflation's not going to be back at two percent i think like
the fact that it's under three percent is kind of the new normal and like you all kind of know that
like they're patting each other on the back going all right we were at 9.1 a couple years ago nice job guys great work yeah they just can't saying
two percent but it's really like that's not real they can't they can't say that they can't change
their you know long-term target of two percent they just have to leave it where it is he needs
to just keep saying our long-term target's two percent we remain committed we're data dependent
and then basically put in policy that's the complete opposite of that,
which is obviously going to ramp inflation back up.
But it's like, what I've always said, and I think this is the truth,
is there's one thing that the world is completely united on,
besides the Antarctic Treaty,
is that the stock market needs to go straight up in a straight line, man.
Everybody.
Poor people.
Middle class people.
Workers.
Managers.
CEOs.
Everybody.
Politicians.
The Ponzi must go on.
They're not going to make any substantial changes to that, man.
They're not going to suddenly let this market trap door.
It's just, I don't buy it they're gonna let the 10-year trap door though they are gonna let the
10-year trap door we'll see how the market reacts to the trap door on the 10-year i think that's
the question mark for me i feel like it we just kind of need uh maybe some concessions on tariffs and there's some upside risk.
But yeah, this is definitely, I feel like it's become a joke, like interesting spot.
Yeah, big spot.
Tommy, what do you gun to your head by end of summer?
Let's just say end of August.
What's the 10-year trading at?
Gun to head. By the end of August?
All the pressures on you.
Finger on trigger.
End of August.
I mean, probably like 2.5% to 3%, somewhere in that range.
So you're really expecting this entire quarter
to be just a capitulation in yields?
In yields, yeah.
Yeah, and I think obviously when those rate cuts happen,
things like the yen are going to really outperform the dollar.
I'm feeling really confident about that positioning right now.
Yeah, let me...
What is it?
If you pull up FXY.
No, it's JPY USD.
You can just pull up the FXY.
Since it's going to be the easiest way to express that in trad
yeah that's kind of a like 80
i mean looks like it's gonna rip up to retest that like see that low right there tucker uh
back from 2017 or 2016. Either there
or that low just to the right
of it.
Like there or slight. Yeah, right
there. Like that region to me feels
like it might not happen immediately,
but like that's where it's headed
ultimately.
Why the yen? Why would you ever trade the yen? There's no money to be made in that well look bucko a foreign currency is making a move that big i promise there's money to be made
dude that's when when tommy rips a bucko that's when you know that is that's the signal
i love it That's when you know. That is, that's the signal.
I love it.
Yeah, I could see.
I think it'll take a little while maybe.
Like, where's the thing? Like, that feels right time-wise.
Well, that's a year.
That might be too long i feel like it's gonna take a few months don't you tommy for what like to get to 70s 80s on the yen
like yeah yeah i think it's probably like a summer thing oh i think I think it's going to take longer. Like, dude, summer, just on the chart.
I mean, you'd have to go pretty vertical.
Yes.
You'd have to go pretty vertical.
Yes, you would.
I think it's coming, though.
So you're probably going to have Japan hiking at some point.
What do you make of the China trade?
No, Tommy.
I'm just going to be patient with that.
I'm going to be patient with that.
We'll see what equities on a broader scale do.
Not like the worst looking.
I kind of feel like China is going to end up making concessions with the United States.
I know the headlines this morning were the exact opposite, but yeah, we'll just have to see i think i said it on market check if like last week my only like hesitation with the china trade was what if this is basically an echo bubble for china
before its super cycle you know like a la the uh the nasdaq coming out of 2008
so that is you know i still think the biggest risk for Chinese stocks, but
that, yeah, it just depends on what, uh, us equities want to do here over the next few
weeks. I think it's a decent, decent size question mark at this point.
Oh man.
NVIDIA. Yeah, man. I just think NVIDIA yeah, I mean I just think in video is completely fried
You probably get a bounce out of these mag sevens here soon again it just kind of comes down to the VIX here, right? You're either breaking above 45, and in that case, like, all bets are off.
The VIX, you do so.
Yeah.
I mean, the VIX, WIX are getting swept this year.
I've been consistently saying that.
From what?
From August? Yeah, I don't think it's going to happen this time around, but... weeks are getting swept this year i've been consistently saying that from what from august
yeah i i don't think it's going to happen this time around but there's a target on the back
somebody wanted tesla and sui side by side what is tesla doing today
uh what is tesla doing today
actually not that bad down a little bit but not terrible it's basically the eth chart
what were we comparing this to i don't even know
what were we comparing this to i don't even know yeah that looks like uh sonic before
that's what it was yeah um
so it could be worth playing a bounce on i just think there's better risk reward and other coins yeah I mean I see how it's like yeah this this block right
here is somewhat similar but and how is this you know but what is sonic doing
i still like this coin
call me crazy you're crazy i still own some too i don't think it looks bad at all
it's been strong today.
I mean, I think the market's still showing you its hand a bit as far as what coins are
going to bounce the hardest.
Inveral Pepe up 5.5% today.
It's the frogs.
It's the farts.
Yeah.
It's the XRP pretty strong today is it yeah
i don't think it's a coincidence either that we're seeing this crypto strength
on a day where gold and silver are kind of nuking yeah honestly
it's really interesting to me that we've been trading so correlated with u.s equities for so many weeks and now we've just completely be correlated for
really the last few days and i hope that just doesn't mean that we're lagging a dump,
but.
I don't think so.
I mean,
it's,
it's,
it's happened before,
you know,
like I've talked about it in the past too.
Like Bitcoin and crypto tend to front run the bottoms on equities.
The same way they front run the tops.
And as I was saying earlier in the show, like, like 2023 S and P pulled back,
bounced, had a nice relief bounce, um, S and P and then rolled over and dropped another 8%.
Um, and Bitcoin had never made a new low and ended up going on like a 50% rip to the upside.
So it's not something that we haven't seen before.
It's not something we haven't seen before.
So not super surprising to me, but yeah, it's been like everyday equities puke,
Bitcoin pukes before, during, after we've been getting like the worst end of it.
But it seems as if that's coming to an end,
right? It seems as if, but don't want to speak too soon. But again, I mean, it just goes back,
like what's an asset class that's not really super affected by all this, what's going on right now?
Pretty much Bitcoin and crypto is crazy as it sounds. It's crazy as it sounds.
You know, people are going to start looking like's what can i put my money in that doesn't have to do with global trade wars
right if we open up limit down tomorrow or not tomorrow but on monday i don't think the crypto
strength will hold yeah yeah i would think that we need to see some sort of relief out of equities as well.
The longer equities take the bounce, the harder it is for Bitcoin and crypto to kind of hold up strong with the rest of the markets puking.
So I would agree with that as well.
Well, here's the thing.
The equity market never bottoms or tops on a Friday.
It just doesn't happen.
So I would think maybe we could set a little bear trap Monday.
Not limit down, right, but like slight gap down and then buy it.
Hopefully, that would be the most ideal. But if we, like you said, Tommy, if we limit down on the S&P to like, you know,
if there's a four handle on Monday,&P to like, you know, if there's a four handle
on Monday, that's a problem, you know?
Yes. We would be,
I think crypto would be about to giga
nuke if that were the case.
You'd probably have like some
sort of bounce
from the lows on Bitcoin
and then it would just like completely
immolate and that would not be good.
If you can get an equity gap down and buy on Monday, though, that's fine.
But yeah, equities never bottom and they never top on Friday.
It doesn't happen.
I do think crypto catches up eventually.
But locally, I think it's still to be debated.
That is a nasty looking chart, man.
It looks like a shitcoin.
That's a crazy looking chart.
I wonder if we just get a perfect retest of the 2022 sell-off all-time high.
Or was that late 2021? i think that was 2021.
like i wonder if that ends up just being like the most obvious shove spot you know
i mean just look what happens every time you see a puke like this you know
and we're not going into like a multi-year bear market.
I've won 618, man.
4,900 on the S&P would be
really nice, honestly.
Crypto can hold up.
I think what I'm looking for early next week
is a big bull crush.
Can we look at the VIX?
There's a nice little gap on the VIX.
If you go to the lower time frame.
This one?
Yeah, maybe even go a little lower.
I think this needs to
obviously settle down first, but I don't think
that gap is safe.
Well, here's what I was looking at yesterday,
which is why I was a little
bit worried about the VIX, was
this.
You know.
And that next candle
wasn't the top on the VIX,
but the one after that was, which would imply this one would be, right?
If, you know, solely one for one extrapolating, right?
But yeah, that gap was a little bit concerning.
You put in two big candles after that, right?
So that should be today.
But,
you know,
looking on the daily timeframe, like if you remove the wicks from a closing basis,
we'll see where today wraps up.
We may actually close higher than we did back in August,
you know?
Yeah.
We'll see how today closes,
obviously, obviously.
Yeah.
How does Seoul look today?
Closed at
38.50.
Turn these wicks back on
I don't know if you guys noticed this morning
but Sol Grayscale
applied for a Solana ETF
this morning?
yes the same morning that there's
a huge unlock
oh did they unlock this morning?
I think so.
Wasn't there another unlock recently?
Not much happened?
Or is this a big one?
What'd you say?
Wasn't there another soul unlock like a month ago yes
vcs are getting paid yeah oh unlock a month ago in april in march there was yeah
probably there's they sold into that probably really hoping for an exit pump on soul so i can short it again
i mean dude soul
sold it looks like it wants you know at least
it's just droopy unfortunately i think i mean it kind of looks worse than ease honestly
can you do me a favor, Tucker?
Go way back to Sol's first cycle.
See that little region right there, though?
In May, June, July, August for Sol?
This?
It's possible we're in, like, some version of that, though.
If crypto is going to get a ripper out of here.
I mean,
that would be great.
Well, yeah, I'm just saying like it looks
really bad right now.
But like if they can kind of
hold that area, like hold 100.
I mean, all that was accomplished
during QT.
So I also think it's probably pertinent to recognize that it doesn't make a ton of sense to consider.
It depends how you want to define a cycle, right?
A little weird to consider like an economic cycle over before we transition from qt to qe right so if we are heading towards that
transition we should be heading into easier monetary policy which of course would benefit
risk assets something like seoul so obviously there's a lot of work to be done on this and it looks super heavy right now but from a cyclical
perspective it's like are we expecting a cycle to end before qt ends i don't know if that really
makes a ton of sense to me this could just be one really like nasty mid-cycle pause across the board.
Yeah.
I mean, if that's the case, you just can't lose like 100, 110 even.
Or else you're getting like 80.
Yeah.
But that thing's fried.
Fried, bro.
Exit bounce.
I mean, I don't even want to say where I think it's going.
Say it.
I'm not going to.
We talked last night, Max. I talked to him last night about it. I'm not going to. We talked last night, Max.
I talked to him last night about it.
My gut's telling me he thinks we're going like 50 bucks.
I might have to
bring back our bet from 2023.
Oh, man.
Yeah, that would be not good.
That'd be really not good. Can we look like sole btc and sole eth wait wait who's gonna tell him who's gonna tell him no no oh no
that thing looks that looks like it's about to pull the eth btc pattern and by the way we're
not just saying that now we were saying that while we were in the middle of that range that that was distributive so
yeah i don't want to hear anybody saying that we're uh oh we're just piling in on the soul
fud nope the whole time we were like this looks awfully distributive well if it would it would
do this and then do this right that? That'd be awesome, too.
No, I don't.
I think you're right, though.
It could definitely give you that exit pump on the Soul BTC pair,
but I'm personally just not interested in touching Soul for anything
other than shorts this year.
Dude, I can't believe what they did to the BTC chart, man.
That is insane.
Tucker, that dead cat bounce so that the trump pump on the sole btc pair might have been that
move right there on eb i know i know because i mean it certainly looks like it's trying to play
out quicker than what ebts has done yeah because this took a while. Or wait, how
long did ETH BTC?
From the first side of the bounds.
The amazing thing with this is that
like, so many people
memed that Sol BTC could
recreate ETH BTC that it
happened.
Yeah.
Memetically painting the charts.
How does Sol ETH look, Tucker?
Because I think it was just kind of floating on a trend line.
I haven't checked it in a while, though.
How does Sol ETH look?
What did you say?
Sol ETH.
There was a diagonal trend line from the lows
that looked like it was trying to hold
yeah i don't know if i had a log or not i'm sure you did weird looking chart
kind of heavy looking chart
honestly
but also it could just be doing
the bitcoin dominance
you know
grind up forever pattern
it certainly could be
but yeah we should look at that
oh my god
yeah I don't know where this is going to top
it's going to top the day
that QT ends man
that's what it's going to be
I actually see this going all the way back
to sweep those highs,
Tucker.
What, a 70-something?
72? Which would probably
imply
ETH BTC doing a full
cyclical retrace back to its bear
market low.
Which means I probably lost
my bet with Tommy, but we still have time.
Still got a lot of time.
A lot of time.
But if Bitcoin dominance goes to 73 to 75%,
can you pull up an ETH BTC chart right below it, Tucker?
Below?
You can just put it right below it,
so the time lines up.
You know what I mean?
Yeah. Or you can manually do it,
I guess.
Oh, you're talking about...
Yeah, just for the
time. I mean, you basically have it lined up,
right?
You have to do the
compare option. This won't work because you opened
a separate chart. You're right. You compare option. This won't work because you opened a separate chart.
You're right.
Yeah, because this to me, new pain.
New pain.
New pain.
Always new pain, brother.
Because if Bitcoin dominance goes up to those highs,
then ETH BTC is probably taking
out the 2020 lows, honestly.
Which is
absolute crime.
Taking out the 2020?
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, that level.
Jesus Christ.
Probably. I mean, if Bitcoin dominance doesn't, that level. Jesus Christ. Probably.
I mean, if Bitcoin dominance doesn't, then we're probably good.
But they're completely inverse of one another.
I think it's a pretty reasonable deduction.
It's like.
Yeah. pretty reasonable deduction. It's like...
Yeah.
I still can't believe that ETHBTC chart, man.
Even the ETHBTC bears,
I feel like they're almost like,
huh, we were super bearish and we were still wrong on where it would bounce.
It's like, it's just... Yeah. We were super bearish and we were still wrong on where it would bounce.
Yeah, I mean, you're for sure getting that level if you get 70s on Bitcoin dominance.
You're for sure getting more. For sure.
And I don't know if I have a firm opinion on if Bitcoin dominance actually does that.
When it gets back up to that wick that we thought was a blow off, we'll see if it just sweeps that and then we're good.
But literally looks like ETH filed for bankruptcy, man.
Yeah.
I do think you see Bitcoin dominance top this year, at least.
This year? It's April. I hope so.
Yeah.
I don't know what it will mean for USD prices, but I do think you will finally see it top.
I think the tricky thing with me when I look at Bitcoin dominance is I invert it.
me when i look at bitcoin dominance is like i invert it uh and i put it on log and it's just
i don't know if it's going to like it it should in theory hold those lows maybe after like sweeping
them i think that's probably like becoming a base case at this point.
I mean, it kind of looks like BNB, right?
In 2021.
Yeah, I could see that.
That just doesn't look like a chart that I would want to fade right there.
Not here.
Maybe you'd look for like, if there was volume on it,
you'd maybe look for like a point of control within the middle of that
consolidation from 2020 through 2021.
But, oof.
I don't know.
We'll have to see.
I think the best case would be sweeping that wick
and then moving back up from this view.
Sweeping what, 73?
No, no.
I think that would be your best case right here
would be sweeping that wick
and then having a quick rotation higher.
But until that happens,
I don't know.
It looks really strong.
Yeah, it does.
Are equities bouncing at all?
I mean, they're not just going straight down anymore.
They're not bouncing.
Not yet.
They're not bouncing.
I don't know about that.
Looks like they're gearing up for another move honestly look at these
sessions there that's insane
I think you're just seeing a lot of people offloading
any risk on their books right now
because they're terrified of what's going to happen
Monday
I don't see why we would have
like a crazy bottom today or anything
there's just no reason at all
it'd probably be like middle of next week
if anything.
What are the circuit break
records? I thought it was like 20%.
It's not 20.
It's 7%
in a day.
That's it, bro?
Dude, it's not crypto.
Bro, that's pretty crazy.
7? I mean, yeah yeah we haven't done that
yeah we're not even close to that we went down three no but you have to do it from the open
price i think it would be the gap down would be included in that right oh you're saying you're
saying in a day yeah i mean at one point we were at like six on the NASDAQ. We're at five. Is it on the NASDAQ or is it on anything or is it on the S&P?
I think it's on...
No, it's on anything.
Individuals can get halted.
I'm sure there's been some individual stocks that have gotten halted today.
Five.
I mean, they're getting close.
You'd have to make new lows though dude to see the index get halted is a totally different thing than an individual company
like think about what that actually implies if the index which is the basket
down seven percent that means there's a lot of companies in there that are down
two or three times that you know individuals get halted all the time every single day there's there's halts
what did nvidia do when it got
nvidia got nine and it didn't get halted? Is that real?
I guess.
Which did?
Nvidia dropped 9 from the... I don't think Nvidia got halted.
No, it didn't.
But I'm saying it dropped 9.
Can you include the gap?
It's down 7.7 right now pretty much
yeah i mean i think nvidia's cooked as well on a higher time frame art got halted
that doesn't surprise me
eight down seven right now yeah is Mark doing right now?
So here it is.
So there's three circuit breaker halts right here. So level one, a 7% drop from the prior day's S&P 500 closing price
triggers a 15-minute trading halt.
Level two, a 13% drop from the prior day's S&P 500 closing price
triggers another 15
minute trading haul.
Level three,
a 20% drop from the S&P 500 closing price halts trading for a remainder of
the trading day.
So level one is a 7% drop from the prior day's S&P 500 closing price.
Yeah.
So I wonder if they did halt NVIDIA
for 15 minutes.
I guess you can't tell, but
yeah. Yeah.
Man, it looks so bad.
Didn't sweep the wick yet.
Yeah, don't invert that I know I'm going to it's basically the yen
basically the yen yep yeah actually it is
where'd all that carry trade liquidity go
Where'd all that carry trade liquidity go?
Probably 75, bro.
We'll see what happens when it takes out that low, man.
Like, that should be the spot.
I think that's down like 40%.
That wick would be a 40% pullback or something close to that.
I mean, it feels like maybe you get like this.
That'd be so bad.
I know. To go get this one.
Oh, gosh.
I hate that there's a gap right below that bottom line, too, Tucker.
Oh, this one.
Yeah.
Maybe that's your bottoming box.
Yeah.
Here's the thing if nvidia goes down there i think bitcoin probably goes like upper 70s
but we'll see if the strength can can continue i mean look
am i crazy to think that at some point you're going to get a big equities bounce
think that at some point you're going to get a big equities bounce you know do we ever besides
covid really go straight down even during the gfc you get these big bounces right 20 30 bounces
that just gets sold off into but are we really suggesting we're just going to see like everything
completely waterfall if bitcoin loses mid-70s I think it will waterfall oh goodie oh good
after nvidia but
volatility's still sticky
dude look at the vix man oh my gosh
i'm just still in awe over how Bitcoin's holding up today.
Honestly, it's incredible.
Makes me really not sure what to think.
It's either telling us one of two things, which are obvious.
Either equities are getting close to a bottom where they're going to bounce and Bitcoin's going to put in a nice relief rally.
We'll see where it goes.
Or we gap down Monday
and pack it up.
I mean, I think we gap down
Monday.
I could see futures opening red and then we actually grind higher the first half of the week.
I don't know. VIX is at 40 and Bitcoin's holding range lows at 82.8.
I'll take that any day.
But also it's like,
what do we realistically think is going to happen with the VIX here?
Maybe put the WIX back on.
Do we blow out next week and take out that 65 level?
And if we did,
I think it would probably lead to a huge vix crush after that
i don't think we're going to see some like gfc 30 days you know it's going to take a month to
sell back off but maybe maybe these tariffs are way worse than I'm giving them credit for
yeah
if we get
a headline that it's just GameStop
bidding Bitcoin we're going to dump
for sure
for sure we are
100%
or MSTR or both
that would not be good
but who's bidding Bitcoin right now, Tommy?
Is it Coinbase?
I assume they'd be going through Coinbase, right?
I don't even know who's bidding Bitcoin.
I haven't looked too deep at it.
Is anyone bidding Bitcoin or are people just not selling Bitcoin?
Some of it's Bitfinex.
I think some of it's Binance.
Probably some Bybit as well.
Burgers are selling.
There's a Coinbase discount
right now.
What does MicroStrategy
look like?
Good question.
It doesn't look horrible.
It looks vulnerable, though.
Yeah, that really does not look the best, does it?
No. I wonder if MSTR would be at all affected by that yen carry unwind.
Why do you think it would be affected?
Just because it's kind of been a big beneficiary of excess liquidity.
Yeah.
Hmm. bond market raised the chance of the june cut i'm gonna watch this may percentage though Now I'm terrified that GameStop is bidding Bitcoin.
I'm not going to lie.
Now I'm scared.
The May chances for a cut have already dropped 10%.
It's at 30.
Yeah, we'll see about that.
I don't know if I believe it.
Yeah. Honestly.
All right.
I think that's the end of the show, guys.
That's really close. All right. Here's the deal. I'm not going to do of the show, guys. That's really close.
All right.
Here's the deal.
I'm not going to do the crazy shill today.
It's not the day for it.
Equities are in free fall.
Everybody stay safe.
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