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supercycle (real)
Recorded: March 29, 2025 Duration: 0:35:40Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, participants analyzed market trends, including a notable decline in the Nasdaq and the resurgence of interest in specific tokens like 'Hype' and 'Vine.' They also explored the emotional and psychological aspects of trading, emphasizing the importance of community engagement and strategic growth in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
This is awful, though. Every time I'm doing this from our apartment instead of from the office, because we're using those massively super turbo blue lights, everyone just leaves comments saying that I look like an AIDS victim.
So it's like every weekend, everyone calls me an AIDS victim. And then for the rest of the week, everyone calls me Turkish. And I just oscillate between AIDS victim, Turkish.
They think you look Turkish like right now, you mean?
No, no, no.
This is AIDS victim.
They think I look like Turkish when we're in the office.
Under natural sun lighting, they think I look Turkish.
And then under LED lighting, they think I look like an AIDS victim.
Have you seen the Turkish stuff happening?
There's a Pika coin that came out of it.
I did here, yeah.
They came in yesterday, actually.
We did a little bit of Turkish nationalism posting.
People were like, no, look, I'm not saying you look Turkish in a bag.
That's it. I see.
Is Lucas gone? I think Lucas is gone.
I miss him. is gone. I think Lucas is gone. Where's Lucas? Lucas.
The Turks got him. Yeah.
Wow, he's totally gone now
let's see let's get him back
how do we feel about markets now guys are we cooked hype is back to 13
eat their 1900 Lucas there's a there's a small square on your eye
yeah so I I'm using the cameras like uh default output so like it's not even like streaming to it
this is just like what uh you
see on the camera screen and so it's like the eye tracking is going oh that's it looks like you're
like cyborg like you're not real yeah look at this like this is it's just ai uh tracking like
i'm uh it's like how they model uh like people from like a wire frame when they're doing
like ml like movement studies i'm just reconstructed from like 17 different upper
body nodes that they're all animating alongside me talking yeah that uh that pete hardio guy that
you uh that you talked to the other day he commented and he was like uh you know lucas
i thought you were an ai or like my friend thought
that you were an ai but i guess that you're not yeah he mentioned that to me during the
the podcast did he release the podcast already or no he hasn't i haven't seen i didn't hear
yeah so he came into the stream uh no he he commented on one of my posts uh okay no i told him that you're real i've confirmed
was he like serious that's kind of funny i haven't uh when people say like i thought you were ai
like i've always assumed it was just like uh it was just like i think i think she was asking like
vent the idea of a lucas and then like tweet for him that's funny
oh it seems like this this looks like a little bit of a scary chart though i will say
it's not it's not amazing i will say nasdaq down three percent in a day. Not great.
Hype back to 13.
I do think that Hype is going to revisit the Lucas sell level.
I just think that it's somewhere around 9.
I think it's going to give me a chance to rebuy, but I might just be giga coping.
Yeah, I mean, it's hard to imagine how hype can like rip now. Like, there's no FOMO for it anymore.
But, you know, it is what it is.
Like, people in crypto just love to buy tops, you know, in size.
It's kind of the problem in this space.
Yeah.
I'm a big fan of this.
I prefer to buy bottoms.
But if you look at my revealed preferences,
I like to buy tops.
Your voice is weird.
Somehow.
It's muffling again.
Muffling. Yeah. how it's muffling again muffling yeah is it better now yeah it's better now better now weird okay
yeah he he really is ai
do you guys have order book issues for Vine? I don't know.
I need to check if there's complaints on it.
It seems okay-ish right now.
Vine is popping.
Doubled off the bottom.
Seems okay.
Is there any news? why is vine pumping guys were coming into the stream yesterday talking about it
so much alpha so much alpha in these streams i i don't know like almost everything that people have came and yelled at us about in the comments
has been like uh one of the meaningful movers of the day,
but I don't know if they're saying it before it becomes a meaningful mover or not.
Wow, Ghibli is cooked.
You see that?
Ghibli looks cooked.
Wow.
It's still at max negative funding too
clients
oh he didn't disbelieve
i wonder who was like closing out here this is like the lucas close like when you start breaking
this one this is the exact part where i start like fomo closing my shorts where this is like the lucas close like when you start breaking this one this is the exact
part where i start like fomo closing my shorts this is where you think it's the next moon
yeah this is where i start being like oh my god like i got caught off sides on the next like
this is going to be fart coin too like this is going to be dogecoin and i start closing and then
we see this uh tutorial looks strong as fuck still though we've seen
tutorial to you yeah yeah we talked about that yesterday yeah at this point on stream i said i
think it goes down and then it did but it really did not go down that much and now it is slightly
above where it was so like uh so basically it looks like binance is going to list like pretty
much every single bnb runner as pervs so it is a very nice way to get a coin listed on binance if
you have a meme coin idea on bsc it's like a really easy strategy like it's kind of shocking
base never did this well they're starting to do it now right they they just listed um
never did this well they're starting to do it now right they they just listed um or they just
announced like um some coin they're gonna list let me see where is it coinbase
find it
yeah they put some coin into like the road map coinbase roadmap
uh keyboard cat yeah they added keyboard cat to the road map coinbase roadmap uh keyboard cat yeah they added
keyboard cat to the road map do we even have damn it do we even have that coin listed you do
you do have that listed i like they're genuinely shorted the exact pico bottom of keycat
oh we have it we have it yeah yeah this is up like 35 what's the what's the lore behind keyboard cat
i have no idea man i hate this going
he's like a cat playing a keyboard right yeah i actually shorted like right here
I actually shorted like right here.
Like it was like actually this candle.
I added up here.
So it's like,
okay.
And I closed some like down on this yesterday,
but this chart actually looks reasonable.
If you go back even to April last year.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Like,
I mean,
I think it's pretty clear that this is just going to be an l like i'm just going
to have to take the l on this one it's also it's like the worst coin too because it's like
it's not max funding but it's like one third max negative funding
and also it's going up like 30 a day like just one of one of my worst shorts in all of history
like that one short may actually be able to like undo the profits from every other
single successful short on every other coin yeah this must have been like an old youtube cat right
keyboard cat the cat playing the keyboard
maybe our commenters are now speculating about uh
whether my eating is a psyop or not what are you eating though uh i just ate some strange like taiwanese variant of uh spinach i guess
there's like 32 different kinds of spinach in asia right like there's like water spinach
there's a regular spinishes so ones with the long stems and the tiny leaves
sweet spinach i'm like dying i think i am sick like i've been like mildly sick ever since the
trump gala thing i don't know if i'm ever gonna recover at this point like that that thing was
worse than the covid backs bro isn't that two months ago damn
damn
there was a girl on ct who posted asking like um
if you guys could bet on the success of your friends relationships would you do it
uh that would be really fun actually for girls to play i feel like girls might actually start
playing that i was just like
yeah like if i could bet on the success of my friends relationships like i would i would just
stop creating crypto like crypto like i'm so much better at that we did this we actually did this
with one of my friend groups uh then we started coming up with like more and more convoluted like
financial devices to do it because at some point it's just like are these people going to work out yes or no right and it's
like uh most of the time it's just no and then so we had to put time frames on it for when we
thought that it was going to end uh and then we started betting on like the reasons and like uh
at some point we recreated like barrier options on the time period.
It's tricky to design the financial derivative.
I mean, you could do it milestone-based.
So if you go short, you can't close out, basically.
You're just locked in.
And then if they get married, you pay out.
If they have a child, you pay out even more.
It's like a multi-year benefit you make.
Because you can't really trade it around because there's no Oracle. there's no it's all manipulation so like you can't know that is
the main problem like it really has to be like a small enough ticket size because like if you start
putting like 400k on like someone's relationship failing then they're just it's like you're paying
them 400k to stay together right like they just counter trade you and stay in it yeah exactly so like it it has to be only like uh she was saying that she was
thinking like 100 ticket sizes or something like that which is like i think that's something that
like i mean even that might be a bit much for girls just because they don't inherently like
gambling but like they'll ramp it up to there i would start at like 20 or 100 and i think you could get like like like somewhere between like 20 40 60 100 you you just get a lot of normie girls
doing this and i think what happened in asia though is that parents would just like put in
money and bet on it not happening so that their daughter is like stop being true-ish and just get married you know like what one million dollar
bounty to just have one child i don't think you ever see there was this hong kong billionaire
who had a lesbian daughter and he had like a 30 million dollar bounty on whoever could uh
like properly woo my daughter and marry her and no one could do it so that's really funny
wow she's never met we should have tried we should have had everyone imagine imagine like uh
box.fund secures 30 million funding round via like uh like dom seducing like the heiress
yeah let me google this i'm sorry it was 65 million us dollars it was higher um
and then it made his daughter uh lgbt icon in asia he was bombarded with many marriage proposals
around the world i actually should have tried this i'm like world historically good at dating lesbians like i've dated so many lesbians yeah oh wow she's uh
she studied architecture um advocate for an lgbt group in hong kong
first president of the hong kong aviation club also an early investor in tesla in 2011
purchased the first two teslas in hong kong
um is an anglican as well
we kind of fumbled this is like 10 years ago though it was before it was before your time
no that was the exact time at which i was literally just dating lesbians like
i don't know i don't know it I don't know.
It's okay.
Everything worked out.
Current girl is beautiful.
Didn't get 65 million for marrying her,
but that doesn't matter in the end of things.
It's all about true love.
Yeah. I hear her walking towards me in the hallway now yeah I think she heard that
she's gonna come beat me again
someone's asking should we consider adding non crypto bets like prediction markets you know
I feel like it's saturated market right polymarket already has a robin hood as well we'd have to do like very weird prediction markets
i think i feel like i feel like we're doing the thing with prediction markets that we did with l2s
like we're just fragmenting liquidity across the thing that like fundamentally can only work
if all liquidity is
like concentrated in one place i think drift drift tried it as well right and didn't really go
anywhere i don't know it feels like a vc thing if you it feels like a peter teal like thing
it's like everything will be predicted in the future we we should just like we should just say
you know polymarket won uh they did it. They did it hardest.
They did it during the election.
They have more news articles.
Like, everybody just support Polymarket.
If you have a suggestion for Polymarket, just give it to Polymarket.
If you come up with a new product that you think Polymarket doesn't have, just hit up Polymarket.
That's one of the problems in crypto, yeah. Like, whenever there's a success, no one thinks, like like how can i build on the success and then like build a like a side business that that ties into
it they're more like oh how can i do the exact same thing but like you know have a token and then dump
the token yeah and then and then dump the token and then have like full vertical integration
of the thing that enables me to dump more tokens yeah like everything's just vertically integrating
without any reason just because they think that by vertically integrating someone's going to buy
the token right yeah that's why like every app is creating a chain even though there's really no
reason to um no it's a little bit a little bit cooked.
I think the big thing that sets crypto apart from almost any other industry is the level of... So if you ask people most of the time, like, okay, so you can do this and you will make 10 million,
but this person that you don't like will also make 20 million, right?
Like in most other industries, people would be like, well, okay, fuck it. Like I'm going to make 20 million, right? Like in most other industries, people would be
like, well, okay, fuck it. Like I'm going to make 10 million, right? In crypto, many people will
actually say like, no, like fuck them. We're all going to zero, right? Like they choose like the
most selfish position on the prisoner's dilemma. So like if you don't like one rate, like if let's
say the poly market intern called you like a retarded homo one day.
Right.
And you're like, I have this awesome betting market.
I like I think we could launch this on poly and like I would make so much money.
They would get so much attention.
Total win win.
But then you're like, he called me a homo, though.
Like.
And then just nothing happens.
Like there's no betting market launched.
Nobody benefits from anything. You never tell anyone the idea yeah I don't know
you discussed similarities between hefe and recent HL so I mean in both cases it's about
Oracle price.
The Hyperliquid one was more aggressive because they provide more liquidity than we do.
So the Hefe one was quite simple. They basically got a bunch of dudes together and they deposited a mill to Oxfam.
And then they shorted very aggressively into the order book.
Like they shorted like 10% below spot into the order book. They shorted 10% below spot into the order book.
They just sold every bid, basically, that OLP was providing.
And then a minute later, because they got together all the jailstool whales,
they then dumped jailstool all at once, and then they bought back the short on Osfun.
So they made like 160K or or something i can't remember exactly
uh and then yeah so so that's like just like a classic oracle manipulation um i think the second
one the hyper liquid one is a little bit more like the r being the hlp mechanism itself um because
hlp the problem with it is that it's assuming the
liquidation positions without ADLing the other side of the open interest. So the guy basically
shorted, he shorted Jelly Jelly in one account. He went long in other accounts, also long in spot.
And then he removes margin on the short, pump spot hlp becomes short jelly jelly for a huge
size like four four million dollars uh which is about at that time about a third of the market
cap so it became a shorter third of the market cap and it wasn't closing out either so then
they started to pump it and pump it um and then what they did was they just rolled it
back so they're like let's pretend that never happened and let's use a price lower than like
you know forex lower than where the market is so that way the explorer actually lost a lot of money
so i think if we had done it as hardcore as they would have we would have just kept the happy money
had done it as hardcore as they would have we would have just kept the happy money
yeah that was a big thing that was like really uh like i thought i thought they were gonna roll
it back such that the exploiter wound up like uh that he wound up like net equal and then they
actually they actually rolled it back to such a point where he just like lost an arbitrary amount
of money uh and by that logic it was like like that that would have actually
been equivalent to us just saying we're going to like keep the one million that happy to pop
as it did right yeah so what we have now in terms of servers is that if you try and exploit we'll
take half your money that's in the tos now so um so it's just more clear what will happen.
And then we've had less exploits since then as well.
And so normal users can benefit from that.
I mean, ultimately it's like one, like one guy can ruin it for the 999 for the other thousand.
And the problem is that he always pretends to be like, he's the other normal people.
Like he's just like trading normally, but he's not.
Right.
So I think, you know, it's a shame that the, I mean, at the time that everything happened,
I think it was the first of these that was like high profile so uh i think our community was a
little bit too too unclear like what was happening and so they didn't really defend that well
i was speaking to some ox was about and they're like you know the biggest problem so it was not
even like the the the announcement or like what you do it's just like you know all the ox badge
guys uh just like turned
like they were like oh debadge me and then they went like bearish that they're like fighting you
and then like the main guys weren't really tweeting so yeah i mean and i i think that hyperliquid
you know arguably like doing the oracle price at such a low price is even worse but you know
their community is more rabid so
they're like okay um now they but that's good for us too because they're now defending
centralization which is which is really bullish for us because i think ultimately to provide
liquidity on long tail you do need a degree of that um you need a degree of protection otherwise you get mango marketed and then you can't run
exchange it's just over so thoughts on DeFi dungeons no idea what that is um
paint me one of your paint me like one of your French girls Lucas I don't really know what that
means I was confused by that one. It's a Titanic reference.
It's a what?
Titanic.
You never watched Titanic? Oh, that's why I don't know.
I've never seen Titanic.
Wow.
So Kate Winslet character Rose says to Leo,
the young impish boy on the Titanic,
to paint me like one of your French girls.
You don't know Titanicanic the story at all
that's crazy let's see what else to talk about this is dead again i think
thoughts on the current meme coin landscape a little bit cringe I would say
um there's a lot of bifurcation across chains so you have bnb chain you have base you have
Solana the problem for Solana now is that
if they can't get their meme coins listed on tier one sexes,
then people can't imagine the exit, you know, like the mass adoption phase.
So it's a little bit more problematic for them to actually,
you know, be able to hold that 100 mil
yeah
good for angry ass i think what you mentioned the other night that could potentially use
as precedence whenever like go to the future is a really big one overlooked aspect yeah i mean i don't know what you mean by precedent but
like ultimately hyperlux is not that decentralized right but that's not a problem
it's just like a regulatory arbitrage i think that like people saying oh they shouldn't have done it
because then it means that they're decentralized it's like they have the power to do it anyway like
whether they press the button or not they have the button right so i mean i think they did the
right thing to press the button it's honestly much worse to have the button and then not press it i
think um so i mean yeah okay it's 13 now down down from 17 but it would be like at eight dollars now
or maybe like four dollars now right if they didn't do it. It is a problem
though that if they keep bailing out like HLP or they protect it, then what that means is that HLP
becomes like a good investment. but, you know,
it just means that they're not moving away from not relying on HLP.
They're in fact, you know, hurting centralization
to make sure HLP doesn't lose money.
So they're giving it a put,
but they don't have a put on hype then in that case, right?
So you can't save everything.
Thoughts on Oxfun?
I mean, Oxfun is what we're here for, right?
Oxfun is the big game.
So, Lucas, you're live by the way, Lucas.
Yeah.
Cool.
Yeah, so we have this method too where we're going to list a lot more small cat meme coins.
Maybe do a Dex screener model where someone pays $1,000, they can get it listed.
And then we just won't quote it.
So it's like bring your own liquidity.
So you can quote it yourself.
So you can drag your orders around manually or you can write to our api but i think like that allows us to do permissionless perps which can be really big
um i think we're one of the only ones that have gotten close to that
um model yet so it's all about how do you design it so that it's you don't get arbed all day by
yeah like if you don't provide liquidity if we
just say you pay a thousand bucks and we'll list it you know it's a bit like a poker room right
like poker room doesn't guarantee the game is fair necessarily or that the game is going to be a good
game but it says sure i have a table for you here's your table you know you find your own players so
i i'm interested in that model because that means we can list like thousands of small coins.
You know, like you could go along like a 80K MCAT coin, for instance.
Yeah, as long as someone sells it to you, right?
So some Arbor can sell it to you, then buy a spot.
So you're essentially, you're able to buy the coin on leverage, but the seller may get ADL'd if the coin goes down 90% in one tick.
So he has to decide what price to do it at.
But basically it's just like free markets, right the market decide don't try to predict what the
market will do but just create open marketplaces right i think philosophically that's a direction
that we can go in as well that that'll be quite bullish um yes like like otc markets um you know like i think it's not it's not possible to predict
what what will happen right it's important to create venues that people can exchange risk on
and and trade on versus each other you could have a situation where some guy,
let's say he launches a pump on coin, it goes to like 100K. He's then putting in a big bid on Oxfam for his coin. He pays a thousand bucks for the listing. And that's a big signal, right?
Because it's like, okay, he's willing to bet with real money that his coin's going up
at even 100K MCAP. And if you're bearish on it whatever you
can short against him and then if it rugs you make a lot of money right if you short it um
conversely like he could then squeeze you if you short against him right so it creates some
interesting games pvp games um like now that the way that pump fund graduates works a little bit
differently than before like snipers are kind of more cuts um i think that there's a chance for there to be like derivative games on small caps
like if we can solve derivative games on small caps it's gonna be huge i think um
barrier options on small caps because here too there's obfuscation right like you can use soul
collide you can use like ether cloud whatever on oxfun people don't know who you are it's privacy so you can be putting in visit offers
on meme coin on small cap meme coins um and then like you can do that to like corner supply you can
do that to like short short wall pumping spot you can do all sorts of fun games for yourself
but as long as the platform is just taking fees and users are like you know playing the game it's a bit like a poker game in that sense so
small caps are also more fun for stuff like this because you can like uh do more with 20 i think
like this is this is something that i think uh like solana proved out overall is that like uh
think like Solana proved out overall is that like, it's more fun to have a product that relies on
like 100,000 users betting $20 on various things than it is to have a platform that relies on 10
users throwing 50 million around every now and then. The second one winds up feeling very
dangerous. very uh dangerous
i don't know if sue's gone oh there i'm back i'm back i gotta go in a couple minutes so
get someone else on or we can just call it up to you all of our boys in uh in the states right now are kind of uh cooked i think like weekend fun time
for them true true so uh i don't know i want to i want to get like uh sappy on at some point uh
captive dreamer martin i think he can probably come on pretty soon here and uh bap's probably
gonna come on but i don't know how much we're going to talk about markets with those boys we might talk about dating markets dating apps ways to profit off of uh human happiness and misery as they make
good or bad decisions interesting i could work we will eventually like i mean unless ox literally like completely giga blows up like at some point
ox will have a betting market on dating right like it's just you we just keep iterating towards that
you know if we keep streaming it'll probably happen sooner than later if we stop streaming
it might take long enough but But we have to design it.
There's definitely some really convoluted financial instrument that you could use to
design something because like it is super funny also like it is funny to be like, you
know, like when we were all with our friends like betting on like who was gonna we would
have a rule that we wouldn't like.
We weren't gonna like tell people like what we bet on at the time,
unless we already like, you know, if we already gave them like our personal thoughts on like,
this is a bad idea, don't date this bitch. But we wouldn't tell them how he bet. So like at the end,
we were like, I'm sorry, it didn't work out, man. But like, I'm gonna be real.
We all knew that this would fail. Everyone bet against it because she's an evil bitch.
that this would fail um everyone bet against it because she's an evil uh actually several of us
put like five figure sums of money on her being an evil so like i'm not just saying this to make
you feel good uh this is the way of the world someone asking any hope rocks token uh yeah some
some hope uh we'll we'll start we'll we'll start a season soon actually um where i think a lot of
boxes that's currently on chain more passive will come back on the platform and trade and participate
in different vaults and i think the key is really to expand our community size because
i think that our community size is is good but it's you know it's got to get bigger
uh that's like the one thing that i think hyperlink did well
this cycle through the airdrop which was to get like a big rabbit retail community uh i think we
need to figure out something like that where the community size and like the vocalness just gets
much higher i think right now there's still a perception among like the old cycle guys uh
that like oxfund they don't quite know who's trading on it and who's using it so they're like
and they don't know who owns it so they're like like oh this is like you know like maybe sue owns all of it but
actually like users own most of it so i think you know that that's something that i think finding a
way to get users more vocal more active on reflings more active on promoting um and also just like
having good products i think that's the main main focus. This is a very product-driven exchange.
Lots of new stuff that you can only do on Oxfam, right?
So ultimately, we have to keep working at that and give you guys good experience.
There's going to be some weird...
In the same way that the Hyperliquid thing taught everybody how exploits and toxic flow on exchanges generally goes, I think there's going to be some goofy thing that teaches people how the fucking strategies vaults finally work.
At some point, the average modal ox user will know when the ETH, Sol, bitcoin vaults are like a good idea and how to use
them yeah at current moment i don't know hard to explain heading out i gotta go to lunch yeah
peace
