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supercycle (real)
Recorded: April 9, 2025 Duration: 3:09:34Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current market dynamics, highlighting Ethereum's decline and Bitcoin's potential for growth amidst rising yields and shifting investor sentiment. The conversation also touched on emerging trends in DeFi, NFTs, and the broader implications of geopolitical events on the crypto landscape.
Full Transcription
both worlds in my opinion what's up guys
gmgm
welcome you stole my welcome i have no line now my indian scammer line
so the markets markets looking good 10-year yields going up stocks going down bonds and
stocks going down it's good um gold going down even gold going down yeah eath is at 1400
bro this is such a diabolical chart man like it just makes me laugh at this point
crazy i love how we start almost every stream just shitting on eath real quick and then
we just like got that out of the fucking system well like eth is down more than ripple eth is down like five times more than tron
yeah i know it's like you if you just follow tiktok advice you would have bought doge and
xrp or whatever they're at shilling at least xrp and you would have made a fucking killing
compared to anyone who was bullish on it yeah it would be a funny bit delisted
versus there's only been 14 days in the last 15 years where vix curve was back
we're dated by 30 points i've seen his tweet um last time bitcoin prices this backward dated was before the COVID dump, Bitcoin from 10K to under 5K.
Savvy says tomorrow is the floor just like a general floor for all assets or i don't know
how is saffppy making these predictions
yeah i'm feeling really dumb about cutting a lot of uh a lot of my eth shorts around here
sappy is actually the um the chain link guy from the future actually
i mean you saw andrew king try to short on hyper liquid and got liquidated on shorting eat
and people were like how do you manage to get liquid being shorty right because it just went
up enough to look at him and then it went back down again like it went to 1580 yeah it's almost
like they did it for the meme or something did it for the meme and then they continue to go down
um like it has actually retraced the full cycle's price action at this point like like remember a
week ago when I was saying I just have this feeling that ETH goes back to my like rebuys
and now we're like actually 300 away from when I re-entered ETH yeah it's just very quick
triple digits just seems like pretty likely at this point I think very good
triple digits just seems like pretty likely at this point i think yeah
what seems likely like three digit eath I remember when it was like 2100, the key was like, he's going to rebuy at 888, basically.
That was a pretty good call.
The video chart looks scary. Yeah. I mean, look, china doesn't give a fuck about equities honestly
right so i think think about how intense their covid reaction was like basically everyone was
locked up for two years right in major cities so like tons of entire industries went to zero during that and so i feel
like you know in a in the austerity war there's very it's very hard to bet on like china blinking
like i see chum up shooting that china's gonna blink but it's just it's very very difficult to
see how that plays out because it's it's like it gives you the try to excuse the social treasuries it gives them an excuse to
divest which they haven't had before right so
i think you made an interesting point in like the in the broadcast room before we started of America essentially taking the villain role at this point and China not being it anymore compared to what it used to be even just a few months ago.
on every Twitter post I see
regarding the China tariffs
that the US is imposing, etc.
The entire
feeling around it has shifted
to, okay, well, America's a dickhead
at this point.
Yeah.
Oh, shit.
These guys see World Liberty five might be selling you
it's like a 65 negative scalp in two months
they gotta be insiders man
what real insiders trade like
that's crazy
it's kind of impressive they have like a bunch of bitcoin as well yeah i don't know if that's like
significant cell pressure at this point or when they have like it's still many many that have
that they that they have i think oh okay if i remember correctly
it's just like another one of those things where people just attributed it directly to
the trumps and it was actually just whoever they hired to run their crypto project yeah a little bit of a dope project. Yeah. So this looks funny on the log chart.
all right yeah very funny
Yeah, very funny.
i mean if like a log chart it's got more to fall it's gonna go to like 0.003
where'd think he say he was rebuying 888 in dollars so depends what you think bitcoin will be
it in dollars so depends what you think bitcoin will be but there's no levels below here it feels
like below oh two yeah if it breaks this it's like that bitfinex guy who's bought so much fbdc like
imagine if that guy gets liquidated like then you're looking at like oh one wick
So, uh, markets probably hard mode for investors here, huh?
Yeah, I think like people who have like the long Bitcoin dominance positions that they're
just going to keep holding it because they're just like, no one can squeeze this.
How is this going to squeeze higher?
In what world does Bitcoin get outperformed by alts?
Right?
On the way down down there's no way
on the way up probably also no way so i think there's just been like this
really good thesis driven trade that people have had um
yeah this was one that i very uh ardently supported and then like carried out with
moderate size and i'm now just sitting here like
god damn it Lucas like why do you never fucking all in on like your good ideas
yeah it's like you could have you could have actually retired off of this one thing
for like 10 generations like you could have retired your entire family you could have retired
like random people that you just met like months ago. I literally came here for
hours a day and talked about how I thought Bitcoin dominance was like, this is it. This
is the make it play. Then I just was like, yeah, let's pun something. Fuck.
To allocate 5%. We haven't really gotten any like super satisfying giga nukes either,
which is kind of frustrating.
Like it's just like slow bleed.
It's the worst.
I will.
Today was, that was a giga nuke, man.
Like it's straight up.
Yeah.
Like today to yesterday, like that is actually just another straight.
I mean, if you look at the chart, like it is filled with giga death news like there's tons of them actually but it's like five
percent at a time or something just like no look at that one massive candle bro that was literally
like the biggest candle uh that we've had like all cycle really like a 20 percent yeah there was
like a 15 but i mean like back in the day we used to get like 30 percent i'm
talking about like 2018 style like even like like some of the bigger alts aren't making like
you know they seem like they can only move like about 15 or 20 max and then they'll kind of like
it's just weird i think at a certain point when an asset has been around for long enough um
there's so many sellers who just don't care anymore and it's just they're just floating
around like there's many bitcoin holders who are just off in the mountains they're hiking somewhere
in tibet uh eventually they will realize like oh my god bitcoin's so down is something happening
but like uh you know it takes everyone a while to get tipped back in what's going on for sure
maybe i made that up i don't know no you're probably right like when bitcoin was new it's like uh all the
holders are literally there at their screens looking at them but now it's like god knows man
yeah people are like giga checked out and it's too liquid also like that was the other thing
like at the beginning there was like some guy who has enough of supply that he can just
all the liquidity no
i think this is like with a lot of new launches still not even here yet right like monad mega eth
um they may actually just delay those tgs for like another year um yeah i wouldn't be surprised at all
like what choice do they have really like bear is down like 60 in the week um
more it's done 70 in like a week i hope like meggy at least if they're going to delay their tg they should make their nfts tradable because i don't want to pay attention to that for another year i'm not gonna lie there would never be a scenario where the bones of you gets locked up
yeah i agree i think restaking staking restaking abs that was meant to be like the like the lock
drop style catalyst but the demand never just like materialized.
This is going to be true a little bit
because the asset that you're creating from the lock drop
doesn't itself have enough value, right?
Because the AVS, he says you need ultimately people
to buy the underlying, like to build the underlying thing.
thing it's just like a lot of infra built with no app builder in mind
It's just like a lot of info built with no app builder in mind.
is there anybody who restates that does not feel like they were just massively scammed by themselves
or like who did any of the staking i think i like eigenlayer i can't i can't even get mad
at other people because like i really did this to myself i mean i can maybe blame mrwo for
like the eigenlayer thing but like if we're being honest it was just me like it was all on me if i
think about the value proposition of me just locking up tons of liquidity so somebody can
raise on high tvl it's like it's actually zero it's like negative zero. It's actually like I was a morally bad actor for allowing them to do this.
So like I deserve what happened.
I wasn't like upset about Blast, but I feel like I was one of the only ones because I just got,
I think I got lucky on a jackpot and it was a coin that I had like three or four percent of the
supply like spread out in different wallets. So I up getting like i think i locked up like 32 eth and i got almost like a two two bitcoin value worth of airdrop
but uh a lot of people i mean that seemed like everyone was just pissed about that one
yeah eigenlayer was i was mostly mad because like the dude made us bridge all like manually
because like the dude made us bridge all like manually like we all had to bridge our own to his
fucking chain from his multi-sig and so like all like 16 of my wallets i needed to spend like 500
gas fees the gas fees was like out of control for bridging and then when i wanted to bridge
off the chain it's like another like you know it was like there was that time when i came in just seething because i was like i agree i seriously have to pay like six and
a half k to bridge off a blast oh yeah because like the bad bridge liquidity well i found some
way with like eeth or something that was pretty good but i think people figured it out pretty
quick because it got the spread blew out again but i mean realistically you could have just waited i guess yeah yeah i
could have but then it's like the value proposition of okay just wait but now you're holding eith
for a week you know yeah yeah well there was rap bitcoin on the chain actually
or there's there was but like you could you could only bridge eth off right
no you can bridge wbtc back oh my god okay well i'm retarded
i just what i did is i uh just i didn't dump it on chain i deposited all the blast into buy bit
and i sold there although price was a little lower i could have gotten a little more like dollar value out if i dumped it on chain but uh
what are you gonna do i mean thinking back the last wasn't even that bad because everything
that came out here was even worse uh yeah it was bad because people had such high expectations for
acme and honestly did really good in terms of like uh doing the thing and then
running away before anyone remembered i imagine he probably made a decent amount because i'm sure
they were taking like a percentage of the staking yield from all the locked up uh eth yeah
i'm still running an eigenlayer operator for like no reason I don't even know why I still have that
up there's like people have like I think it's like 500 ETH delegated to my operator or something
like who are these people that are still just like stakes and eigenlayer
and I don't think I'm getting like any reward at all for that like one time I think my operator
address got like like a random 200 of ETH but But other than that, it's like,
I'm just doing this for absolutely zero reason.
There's not much info cost, right?
No, it's like cheap, yeah.
It's not a big deal.
But the only reason I'm still running
is because I feel bad
because there's people actually actively delegated to it.
So better shut that down.
But yeah, it barely costs anything.
If it were to shut down, people would get slashed get slashed right or no i don't think there's um no they
would just stop gaining the rewards i'm actually not even certain that's true i'm at one point
they hadn't even implemented that to where even if the operator was down that they were still
getting but they may have i mean the software hasn't been upgraded in, like, almost a year.
Like, there was, like, one software upgrade I had to do for the operator node, and then...
Is eigenlayer just, like, outright a scam?
I mean, their DA layer works,
but it's just, like...
Nobody...
There's no demand for a DA layer.
Like, even, like, ETH blob space isn't full.
Yeah.
Do you think that, like, Celestia thesis is one of the other reasons why ETH has been underperform? Because you can't actually have value accrual to a DA layer because you can just always
have other DA layers that are cheaper?
I don't know if it's directly because of Cel Celestia but I just think like just in general
having your main goal to be a DA layer was like a bad move yeah so yeah like I think that's why
just building the wrong product
I mean like I didn't do like I'm I definitely made money like farming eigenlayer and farming Blast, but if you think about
how much more I would have made just market buying Soul with that money instead of leaving
it locked up, definitely way worse.
Huge opportunity cost. I wonder if dawn is still long this
which dawn
uh kryptonium do you guys think defy will ever find like proper product market fit like
people expected previous cycle because this cycle hasn't happened
i don't think it's gonna be that easy because a
lot of the defy use case of stuff that's currently built with like smart contracts is um like as my
talk said it's oros boros like you you're using the defy to long the native asset of the chain so
if you're an outsider you don't need to long the native asset of the chain so you don't need to
use the defy you don't need to use maker uh if you don't like if you don't want to own eat right
you don't need to use ava if you don't want to like borrow against a liquid oh sorry like uh
risky crypto so yeah it's gotta be like you need like whole new use cases like stablecoin
d d5 i think will come and there'll be some cool stuff you can do um but it basically the product set has to almost resemble like real world product
sets and then you have some efficiencies on top of it it's got to be more incremental on what's
happening in the real world as opposed to like you know we're gonna have these ponzi farms we're
gonna have these like you know ways to get leverage um like even athena right is again it's like a it's a good product
but it also depends on people uh wanting to buy coins on leverage right like everything is
uh downstream of that so and i think like it has found product market fit there's billions
of dollars in it it's just the tam is not as big as people thought yeah like do you really
want trillions of dollars in the world to be like leverage long on chain you probably don't want
that right like it's not especially with like an irreversible smart contract that can get hacked
you know yeah like north korea might actually just hack like the whole like half the world's money
and then north korea buys all the nukes uh so yeah i think that's the
cap that i think d5 ran into um also just innovation cap like i think because the if
you look at the revenues oh we're having an earthquake right now i was wondering why we
were shaking so much oh damn how big is it my camera's moving a little i don't know yeah i saw that yeah i just got a presidential
earthquake alert that's pretty crazy yeah i'm in a part of the building that's definitely like
the scariest part to be in during an earthquake because like if i move too much and that window breaks i'm just fucking shoo straight out the taipei is super resistant to earthquakes i i
think that particular building i i think it can resist like a 9.0 earthquake
anything over that though you're cooked over 9.0 is hard but like like fukushima was like what 8.5 let me check yeah something like
that i think maybe higher wow huh i've never actually felt earthquake in my life yeah that
was the first time i felt an earthquake in a long time yeah oh it was 9.1 the uh earthquake in 2011.
yeah so you get another fukushima because lucas looks kind of shocked
wondering what are the odds?
I have a friend who's like, he's only going to buy markets again when Sui's under a dollar.
That's his benchmark.
Only another 50% drop.
That's not too bad.
On Sui itself, yeah.
But Sui is quite a strong asset overall throughout this market, no?
Yeah, it definitely is. So I don't even think that's like...
Let me see what that looks like.
Sui USDT.PE. So I don't even think that's like... Let me see what that looks like. So we used it.
Kind of seems almost similar to the Sol drawdown.
It's pretty close.
It's pretty close, I think.
65% off the top.
It kind of...
Wait, let me compare.
Down slightly more than Sol from the top.
I think the chart still looks better though
structurally yeah it does it does although like if you look at the prices i mean like sue is 50 cents
august 2024. yeah you mean like increase-wise overall?
Yeah, it's still up 4x from August
2024. If you think that alts are going to
underperform
for some period,
I mean, it stands to reason you might have
a full drawdown
of some of this stuff.
XRP,
you could argue, maybe unlikely
to have a full drawdown because it's it's getting so much
regulatory approval now uh plus like they probably just own the majority of the float yeah yeah sweet
the question is like obviously did a huge run on the way up what kind of things do they do
to achieve that like is there like a hidden unlock coming from that supply or something right
so i don't know like i saw walrus i mean this war stuff is not really
i mean it's like wild coin ensuite guys like i don't know did you see the privacy stuff that Helios just dropped for Solana?
It's pretty cool.
Private tokens.
Oh, interesting.
Maybe some use-based.
It's like ZK privacy for tokens on Sol.
What do you think you can use it for, applications-wise?
It's just confidential transfers, right?
So basically similar to how Aztec works, I guess.
You could basically have a privacy coin running on Sol. I imagine you could do it with
a wrapped Solana even. So just private Solana transfers. It's pretty bullish.
Yeah, it is. We were talking about maybe ETH adding this with an EIP and how that would be
bullish. Solana already has it anyways.
it's not already has it anyway they can just get beat yeah exactly they're just getting beat on
They can just get beat. Yeah, exactly. They're just getting beat on everything.
everything yeah because before they had um private balances only but the transfers were still not
really like shielded so now it's like everything like the transfer the balance um it's all just
like encrypted i think like i wrote this post i think I spoke quite long about it with with Luke as well at
least we texted about it but just kind of like the transfer of like the cycle previous cycle
kind of being this L1 DeFi race and a large proportion of it from my experience was like
what L1 is kind of the L1 to build upon and then Seoul just like beat like every other l1 by a long shot
in terms of actual adoption and now you see like what sayuki is saying like these
it's just winning in terms of people building sooner on there than they're building on eth as
well yeah i think everyone kind of got hung up on picking the winning L1, but in reality, it's just where are the apps getting built that the users are going to use.
Is it easier or harder to make apps on...
Is making this privacy mumbo jumbo on Solana easier or harder than it would have been on eve i actually well i think for this thing specifically because it's like zero
knowledge stuff it's actually from my understanding it's actually a little easier on soul because
the logic and like the state are completely separated on soul because of how accounts
work and programs work whereas with uh ethereum kind of all mash together. So it makes some things with ZK easier.
I don't know. I'm not like a ZK wizard, but that's my understanding. But it just really depends.
I would say the only reason why ETH is easier is because it has a more mature developer
ecosystem where people have been building tools for 10 years now to make writing smart
contracts easier.
So it's something that will catch up. i guess we're like bouncing now yeah i guess we have we have one green ticker on the panel here
hype yeah i'm not like that's why i've been so excited i'm looking at this short of mine
and it just fully recovered i'm not having that's why i've been so silent i'm looking at this short of mine and it just
fully recovered i'm not having a fucking jolly time right now how's you you said you closed
your long head or something yes i'm like live trading the most terrible trading experience
like all day like literally when we were in the like the pre-room for the stream i was like yeah
honestly really good day i've been trading very well and as I hop on stream I just make every wrong decision
a trader could possibly make just immediately 20 minutes yeah like how is this even possible
yeah hype's up a lot what the hell seven percent yeah
hype being up a lot to me is like actually giga bullish for crypto overall.
Why so? Just like the hot new thing.
It's just, it's a better look to have like one actual product running. Yeah, that's true i i agree with that it's a good product
like if you have if you have actual good products getting released and then like the market sells
off and they get no bids and everything goes to zero uh it's just sort of like a really
hard investment thesis to make to anyone like as an industry overall right yeah
i actually quite enjoy the hyper liquid trading experience as well
like i've tested it out a bit yeah it's a good exchange definitely good
if you're not like trading with gigantic size and want to hide your positions or something,
I don't see why you wouldn't use it.
I still always type in the URL wrong when I go there.
I sometimes do hyperliquid.com on accident.
Try to do bookmarks.
I always do like, I never go to the app first of all but i always do like hyperliquid.net or uh
dot net it's a weird one
yeah it just feels dot netty to me for some reason but it's strange that a lot of these like
protocols don't really give a about their domain name stuff like that like the same thing with
photon like i swear to god photons like
url their url is cooked it's like yeah it's like awful tiny astro dot soul dash photon dot
i'm not even kidding i've thought the same thing yeah like why don't they just like
but i think it's because they support multiple networks yeah it is weird that they don't have like photon dot something it's photon-soul.tinyastro.io
i think that's why like whenever people talk about like really optimizing the url
i just wondered this cycle if it matters at all like i don't i don't think so i think people once
they have it they bookmark it or they just know like they just type in photon enter right and it
auto goes to photon or whatever your platform is.
I think in the case of Photon, it's like, because you use it so frequently, you have
to have it bookmarked anyway.
Like it's a speed tool.
Like they were uniquely able to get away with that because of what their product is.
But like if you're a product that people use maybe two or two or three times a week, I think it's
very different. Right. Whereas like if you're in the trenches, it's like you have to have photon
bookmarks. Right. I think it's some kind of self-selection thing where if you choose a really
bad URL, it almost like is like you're putting out like the weighted, you know, that's before
you do pull ups. It's like I'm proving that my product is so good. You will find it anyways.
Whereas if you spend all the time doing the URL,
or the branding in the URL.
I mean, that is a little bit of an insane thing for us to say, though.
No, I think that... I don't know what you guys do when you type in URLs,
but I just type in the first few letters,
the first letter or two,
and it automatically goes to whatever I'm looking at.
I don't type out aux.fun.
I just type out O and enter,
and it just goes to aux.fun.
I pretty much have everything just in bookmarks
like different folders of bookmarks particularly gary like sketched out about
navigating to the wrong place yeah that's the other reason that i actually i like i honestly
have uh like i i have faded the photon url multiple
times because i thought it was like a fucking phishing link it looks like like every time yeah
like tiny astro like yeah i'm like dude wait did i click the right one like and then eventually i
like go and check in my telegram and did i log in right i think there's a way where like the the the harder url makes you feel like
you're like smart smart money as well like smart retail like this is a tool that like is not for
normies you know i'm accessing like high-end tooling here yeah i'm using i'm using the command
line interface to trade perpetual literal ass coins yeah i think that's half of it half the reason
it's the same with um twitter usernames like a lot of people
essentially like i know i spoke to hyper liquid because
spoke to hyper liquid guys because I was able to get at hyper liquid and I was
like hey do you guys want a hyper liquid because currently you have at hyper
liquid X and they were like yeah we don't really give a fuck to be honest
Yeah, it's Chad.
People really don't like when people hit them up asking to buy Twitter usernames.
I know this because every time someone messages me asking if I want to buy the at Lucas account,
I'm just like, I just feel this totally irrational desire to like assault them welling up within me.
I don't even know.
I can't even like rationally explain it because it's like a but like the idea that there's some guy out there who's going and attempting to just like front run a bunch of things that I might care about because he thinks that his Jewish speculation speculation is going to beat my jewish speculation
is like insulting on the face of it it's like i i would use the most dog shit handle of all time
before i give you a single cent for a name yeah it's like uh squat like basically squatting right
like has a very negative connotation get the fuck out of my house, dude. Like, I
will be like
Lucas Feliciano
Lopez the 32nd
before I pay you a single
dime. Okay, just to clarify,
I didn't have
the ad, so I didn't, like, frontrun
buy it. I was just like, hey, I can help you
get it. I'm specifically referring to
Yawa Queen and his fucking scumbag tactics
of selling, swatting, URLs, handles.
Disgusting rodent of a person.
I can confirm this is exactly what I did.
This is exactly what Lucas thinks about me.
He actually DMs me every day
and he just goes, you scumbag.
I just DMm him the emoji every 30 minutes he just schedules it ahead of time just to make
sure i see it yeah i've started sending it to his parents too
let's see what the boys are doing on the feed today.
They're mainly shilling us SPX,
it's Protos.
It's the usual.
Oh, you mean the DGEN feed?
Yeah.
This is pretty impressive.
Every time I open the Aux DG degen fee it's just like short short
short short short short short short no we got some longs here we got longs in bitcoin and titcoin
titcoin is holding up like very well like coin has created a head and shoulders
well that that wick kind of ruins that theory though no yeah
i don't know i think we're at the market cycle where i'm gonna say this is a head and shoulders we're at the point in the market where
well how how did that wick close on the four hour no it's a head and shoulders
lucas draw your fractal the far coin didn't play
The up only Farcoin tech.
the upper only far coin tech i don't know how it's going
I don't know how it's going.
Not even far from point one.
Ratchet ass. ratchet ass new streaming guest
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Has anyone ever live streamed an earthquake like a big one we just did
this is 5.5 i mean come on it's like it was only a 5.5 isn't it like exponential
yeah yeah like each one up is like 10 times more roughly so like seven to eight is like a 10 times bigger so that was a 5.5 so so to get to a nine
we're at what like a 2.36 times 10 to the third yeah essentially how bad did it feel like describe
the describe the feeling did you not i mean it was mostly just like, wow. Okay. You know when you're in like a shittily constructed house or apartment and it's like really windy.
Like I had this in my university dorm.
I was like on the top floor of the dorm and we would get like big winds and you could feel the building swaying some.
It felt like that.
But then I thought about it for a while and i was like wait like this building is
not like made of fucking like uh plaster and like pine boards uh how the fuck is it swaying right
now uh and then i got the earthquake warning well that's standard tech right it allows it to
to uh wiggle a bit yeah it's supposed it's supposed to wiggle a little bit but it's like
i've been in a lot of high winds in this building and i have not experienced it swaying along with the winds right like is it like a concrete structure no
this building is like a fucking spaceship it's uh no that's a high tech so do i building docks or
am i gonna like get us killed i think you already building we already building docs before but yeah
it's like one of the nice office buildings in time 100 like there's a hell of pictures from the office
but um but you know if i look at magnitude of uh earthquakes in taiwan historically it's usually
around six to eight like there's only been one above eight in the last 200 years so the odds
of a nine are really low i mean yeah but we've also been
summoning like the world historic anomalies of natural disasters into our lives somehow recently
right like i the the place that i grew up in was uh we we got like a hundred year flood and
everyone's like oh thank god we got that out of the way that's like that was really fucking awful
it really destroyed a lot of property and then like two years later we got like a 500 year flood
and then we got like a 200 year flood like in another like two or three years and uh
it was like ha i guess all of this like how many hundreds of years between floods is just
like our shitty estimation that doesn't really mean anything because at any given moment if the likelihood of floods increases like a hundred or a thousand x your estimations are sort of wrong
right it's also just like the gambler's fallacy like uh yeah yeah having one doesn't necessarily
there's no way i could lose 909,099 times in a row right yeah that would be statistically super improbable right
the earthquake fallacy back-to-back earthquakes i do think earthquakes though it's less likely to have one after you've just had one based on the way tectonic plates move yeah yeah yeah because
you gotta build like release the pressure no yeah like i mean rain and floods and stuff that's actually totally different because there's not really like a uh
like the same pressure thing but like the plates gotta like flex on each other so they can build
up the snapping force right yeah so i think you're safe now don't worry about it now that it's
released its tension actually it's good to have casual earthquakes every now and then it's like uh there's a lot of smaller ones and one big one
yeah yeah yeah no it like this can be compared in a lot of ways to doing like nofap or something
like that like if you have something that does nofap for too long yeah well they build up all
of that that energy that tension and then one day uh they're like robbing someone uh
they're like oh my god his skin's so smooth like no you know i don't know actually
i hope none of us know
i'm like remembering this conversation from somewhere but i can't remember where
the robbing thing I'm like remembering this conversation from somewhere, but I can't remember where the
robbing thing.
It's just Lucas's favorite example.
He said it plenty of times.
I see.
It happened to him before.
You know, you know what's really interesting though?
Throughout this whole time, we've been streaming the total collapse of
all markets. We're somehow gaining, we're somehow gaining viewers.
Nice.
Like we're regularly closing these things after like three hours now with over 10k viewers,
which is actually hilarious because that's like, that puts us in the top like 99.8th percentile of like all people on Twitch.
And we're not doing it on Twitch. We're streaming to Twitter,
which is like, this is not a streaming platform.
This is where people go to read short, like, you know,
they go to read a two sentence like fart joke or something.
a two sentence like fart joke or something um yeah so we are we are once again crushing
uh the worst arbitrage of all time like imagine if we were to do the right thing imagine if we
were to just upload videos to youtube or twitch uh instead of like insisting on using like a
printer to like make coffee or something like we're totally misusing the platform.
I think maybe because I should put the next one on because we can go live on YouTube. The only issue is that I like I think we're going to have to not we just have to read the YouTube terms of
service. Yeah, like censor ourselves a little bit.
Yeah. I think we just can't say the F words. Okay. Look, we have some good,
we have stream regular. This is true. We literally have stream chat regulars. Yeah.
You know what we should do also? So like, I like Ox. It's a a fun thing uh but the like one of the flaws with ox has always been i don't think that we have like a water filter and uh what do you mean it's like
something that i've always dreamed of selling right like ever since ever since i first got my
job i spent most days thinking like uh you just want to sell water filters.
Yeah. I was like, I don't want to, I fuck, I don't want to build this. Like I industry is cool.
Machines are cool, but like, this isn't what the people need, right? Like they don't need, like,
they don't need a trencher. They don't need a pipeline drill. They don't even really need cranes anymore. Someone built the pyramids likely
without any cranes at all. But what we do need is water filters. We need some way to take the
estrogenic compounds out of the water. They're very small molecules. Conventional carbon filters
don't work. Osmosis membranes often don't even work. Is real yeah no there's a lot of shit in water now
that it's like you just you just get fucked you cannot avoid it what if i like five bottles
and that's this is the thing like it's actually like you need water like you cannot get around
many many of these bullshit products it's like i'm selling you something that actually uh
it doesn't matter right like you know like i oh, like I, oh, you, well, you need, you need the AirPods
that have the noise canceling so that you can ignore your like mom better or something like,
you don't need that, right? You could just talk to your mom, but, but you actually need to drink.
Like everybody needs to drink. And theoretically, you also need to wash yourself. There's some
mumbo jumbo about like the majority of the way you get like toxins from water actually being just showering or bathing every day. I don't know if that's true or not. I honestly, I believe that every person has like a very individual level at which they absorb things through their skin.
uh so maybe maybe it matters uh maybe it doesn't but like you probably should have like a full
house system right so what what kind of uh full house is like if reverse osmosis doesn't work
then what what do you so well this is the problem is every existing water filter technology has
some like giga downside right like? Like reverse osmosis,
it gets out a lot of stuff that you can't through like particulate filtration, but
it has the enormous downside of now you're removing like most of the electrolytes and
minerals also. So you have to remineralize it, but you're also now remineralize. Like
how do you remineralize water, right? Like youineralize water? You're just going to take a mineral pack
and say, oh yeah, I'm sure this shit's good enough. The way that water gains minerals is
by flowing over rocks in an Alaskan stream or something. Now you're going to take a packet of
calcium phosphate or something and just pour it in there and say, oh yeah, that's what you need.
It's probably different. I don't know how it's different, but, uh, probably different.
So you're just, you're just completely cooked. There's no way you got to like drink water directly out of the river or something. water system where I float it over a bed of like rocks that were all like, uh, they were all
selected at the time for being like a type that would bleed a given mineral into the water.
Uh, like a type of type of river rock. And I had this all in the sunlight because I think,
I think it actually does matter that water is both running and exposed to sun. I might be crazy,
matter that water is both running and exposed to sun. I might be crazy, but I think that matters.
And then I would collect this in a very small drum because I wanted to mostly keep it circulating.
And then I just had an electric pump that would fizz it up to the top and then it would run the
circuit again. So did you run this through some kind of filtration first or you're just running
it over rocks and that's good enough? Yes. No, I would, I would RO at first. Gotcha.
Uh, so I don't know. Maybe we should either feel like you're making design a water filter
that will save American birth rates because that's the other problem. Like what if everyone
just isn't having sex because the fluoride calcified their balls? Hmm. Look at this,
by the way, this guy says, imagine converting all these viewers to ox.
10k potential ox users. That might be true.
Yeah, we're doing our best, man.
I mean, honestly, like, if your thesis is that all of the shit coins are going to zero and you want to short them.
Yeah, where else are you going to short?
It is tough.
It is tough to think of another place.
Most ones are down.
The new listings are getting cooked.
Except for RFC.
RFC is moaning.
Holy fuck.
Dude, this is almost like a doubling of OLP.
Wow.
This is getting the rewards as well.
Right?
Yeah.
Is the graph including the rewards or is this just a...
Including the rewards which started about a week ago.
So yeah, this will just keep going. But honestly, the rewards are not making a week ago um so yeah this will just but honestly the
rewards are not making up a high portion of this no this is just from the fact that people are
long Bitcoin ether against all people um look at the positions now uh Bitcoin Eve sold shorts
I think what's going to end up happening is that no one's going to have any AUX left by
the end, except low LP.
And then $1 a buy will send it to 20 cents.
One thing I have noticed is that when AUX is at a higher price people get like really conservative
with it in some ways i know yeah and then at a lower price everyone is like this happened
like multiple times before i'm seeing it myself i'm like ah fuck it like uh it just tossing like
a million millions of ox like oppositions or losses around like whatever like i'm doing
who knows i just lost like 30 cents or something yeah exactly it's um
it's interesting
I mean the the guys who made a lot on ox fun they they were just like long majors before trump
and then ox pumped it and and you know the coins pumped so
they're up like 100 acts basically or like 1500 acts um yeah but a lot of them gave it back also
from what i saw but basically it's like you get this crazy convexity because um like the people
who are hedging the flow against them they also then buy back ox in the the market. And then like, also they just hold their P&L.
So it's just crazy reflexivity.
It's like you're basically market buying the coin
that you're using as collateral with all your P&L simultaneously.
Right?
Yeah.
It's pretty hilarious.
There was a period in there where like,
when people did catch the bottom on Ox with longs on platform, it was actually like, oh no, like, are we, like, is the exchange, is the exchange going to be able to be profitable this month with these people making this much?
yeah this all these charts starts at um november but uh like mid november but yeah early november
i think um the internal marketing strategies were drawing down for sure
oh this is very rough
probably not that bad, right?
Okay.
Just like too volatile probably.
Just too volatile.
The range is... 12% is not enough of a range.
12% both ways. is that i mean i think the ideal way to play eth player now that i'm now that i'm looking all of
at all of this is basically like uh look at the eth chart and when it retests when when these range candles retest the previous
like this thing the previous uh resistance you probably just want to consider switching to olp
right like retest dump retest dump yeah this might be one of the worst charts for any large cap asset in like years right
um because they were saying how like well q1 was the worst quarter for eath ever but then
yeah it's like a monotonically decreasing chart
like step function down i mean the the pumps are just like
like it is literally not made one it hasn't broken there's no squeeze the high once if
you're short epdc like it's just like you never get tested you can be short like on
20x leverage there's no test. Crazy.
You see, that's why I feel dumb because I was shorting it with like 0.6X or 1.2X or something. And I'm realizing like I actually could have just entered my position with the short and held a 50x short like i there actually was no need to
manage any risk there apparently was no risk i mean each soul now is not far from 0.1 like that's
the craziest thing like i kept i used to tweet a lot about like at what price will we reach 0.1
will it be like and i used to think like oh maybe it's at like three thousand and three k
i was sorry three three thousand and three hundred or like two thousand and two hundred but actually it's gonna be like one it's gonna be like 120 and one like and 1200 i think like 1200 each and
120 soul it feels like it's just it's just that's gonna be the level maybe um
just that's gonna be the level maybe um maybe like 1k 100 soul that would be pretty brutal
this does kind of make more sense now like it's almost too easy there's not enough money in the
space for like like it used to be remember like when a coin pumps other similar coins would pump
and you'd be like oh well that's because because we value this relative to that and we missed that one, so we're going to follow this one.
Yeah.
Like that kind of reflexive type pricing or subjective type pricing.
But now it's just like, okay, that one pumps.
I need to sell mine and get into that one before I die.
That's the mentality of the market now, I think.
Yeah, it's like there's no longer like a market now i think just like yeah it's like not a
there's no longer like a rising tide lifts all boats thing at all it's like at all yeah there's
no individual pvp for assets yeah part of that maybe is from the meme coin market too like the
meme market there's no beta like there's no beta to like the daily runner like you don't buy the
second coin like there are coins they try to launch new ones as beta, but there are no old coins that are
beta to the new coin.
They're strictly rotation out, right?
Yeah, you almost never do well buying the second coin either.
Remember Goat's true terminals girlfriend?
Oh, yeah.
Sydney.
That was... That whole thing... was just like high on euphoria
at some point I have like four drafted tweets of me just roasting people for like how crazy it was
that three months ago or something people were like truth terminals girl truth terminal just
mentioned it has a girlfriend and it's only at 40
mil like only at 40 mil bro like like these type of tweets were on the timeline like avidly and
it's so crazy to think about now even though admittedly we've had two truth terminal runners
in like the last week to be honest so runners it went to like a mil, but... Yeah.
It was such a euphoric stage of the market that like in hindsight that whole period of trading
meme coins and shit from like what would like october or like september to january felt like
a fucking fever dream if you were in the trenches yeah especially now like in hindsight
seeing how many like people have lost the entire fortune they
made in the trenches or gave it back or even fucking lost even more than they made is mental
yeah like it's it's the worst state i've ever seen it in like even last cycle during like all coin
dumps people weren't like as crashed out as they are this cycle at this point.
It's quite different too because of the liquidity profile.
It's like actually everyone's playing an own game, but they didn't realize it because the liquidity pool is so thin.
You ultimately can only get that amount of money out.
So it's like, you know, when all coins are going down a lot last cycle, like many people can sell, right?
They have sexless things, liquidity is deep.
Like you can sell right they have sexless things liquidity is deep like you can sell those coins but mathematically like nobody has actually like 0.1 can cash out from a like 100 mcap coin
like someone can make 500k right like that ratio of like what people think they have versus the
amount of money they can take out it's absolutely hilarious yeah like if it's like if you had to guess walking like how many
how many people actually kept the majority of their gains the majority of their games like
nobody from the trend yeah i mean somebody has to have like yeah yeah there's there's people that have like
come out on top but i think that the the amount of people that actually made money is like maybe i
think maybe like five percent that ended up actually net profitable in the end geez and of
of that five percent i think that the amount they even have round tripped is like probably like 90
of their portfolio yeah it's crazy so even though
you won you only won 10 of what you could have won like i'm i'm a prime example of it like
i was living it up and spending a shit ton of money all this stuff when i was like up on all
my meme coins like dj me that's good not spending money i think is actually a great money yeah
yeah exactly like i just had a great time and then now in hindsight i look at it and
i'm kind of like i was sitting on so much money and it wasn't like a large proportion of i didn't
even realize right didn't even spend like imagine i just took all of it and said yeah fuck this
whole meme point thing but it felt so consistently easy to win like income you're like annualizes out for like five years. Like, yeah,
yeah,
I fucking,
I flip Elon.
Right.
So like,
ultimately you don't realize in the moment.
That's why I said it kind of felt like a fever dream.
And I think most people didn't realize,
including myself to some degree when it came to meme coins,
luckily, like my main skills are in purpose and stuff.
So like,
that's where I just focus on,
but in meme coins, like the amount of stuff so like that's where i just focus on
but in meme coins like the amount of round trip that's just diabolical right yeah sure and i think that's for the the vast majority of people like even you look at someone like maraud's like public
profile like i think he's down 15 mil from all-time highs or something hasn't sold a penny but i'm
sure he had other wallets i hope he took something out
because otherwise he needs to get out of his dubai penthouse he could have like hedged also like a
lot of those bigger ones that perps spx has perps i don't think the other ones i mean
i'm not sure quite a bit of them ended up on Bybit.
I don't know, I just sold on the way up. I definitely missed out on some multiples in
a lot of cases, but I didn't draw down on memes like at all pretty much like i just sold too early instead
i guess that's just like the one or the other sort of evil yeah yeah but it's i think a large part
of the trenches i think that's generally just making money like if you have some money
or like a decent amount of money already to live off of,
it's so much easier for you
to play these things correctly
versus someone who's giga poor
and has like a thousand dollar portfolio
and is aping it into these meme coins,
praying to God
he's going to get this 100X lick.
Yeah.
And if you have money to live off of,
but also that person
probably outperformed me
like by percentage, right?
Like quite a bit.
I think, I mean, the broke guy is always outperformed to like by percentage right like quite i think i mean the the broke guy
is always outperformed to the upside and then giga out like underperform on downside and it's the
inverse for yeah reverse right yeah but ultimately i think like the rich and it's kind of the same
thing right if you're already rich and you have money it's so much easier to just play it correctly. Like Sayuki said, you weren't fiending for 100x.
So when you were up 30x, you were like, I might just sell here.
This looks like a good spot to get out.
And you missed out on an additional...
Yeah, I just kind of gradually clipped out, you know?
Yeah, you missed out on an additional 2, 3x from there.
But did it really impact your life?
But if someone was poor put in 100
dollars up 30x you know he's only at 3k and he's trying to make a million dollars so he's just
gonna stay in the trade i mean there was definitely times where i missed out on more than a 2 or 3x
for sure like uh there were times that i missed out on an additional like 20 or 50x at times
you know but uh he just got up out of singapore prison but he he went in for cannabis
consumption but basically before he went in like uh and they had raided his place so he didn't
have time to like prepare like they did he just went straight to jail but before he was raided
he bought like 5k like a bunch of meme different meme coins uh like he bought 5k of SPX and it went 200x basically since his buy, even now at this dump price.
So he had no idea.
He went back and checked and he had a million dollars of SPX when he checked.
That's crazy.
Yeah, because the other ones he had were mostly up 1x to 5x. They were mostly still up because he was just very early at that time.
But it actually goes to show how convex it still is.
If you're in the earliest phase of the Bitcoin cycle.
He came out and just instant dumped everything he had.
Because this is a free money thing.
Because he didn't expect to make as much money. He like gonna sell it at like a 3x or 4x himself
it's like a great way to force yourself to hold i guess yeah it's fantastic
i sold a lot of my spx way too early
it did it does seem i think i definitely would have outperformed if i just held every everything i bought and i don't know but then how do you like if i like given where we are it's probably still
plus tv for people like us to just hold yeah like spx we there was an ox spx pool on either remember
back when bruce had the uh pool games like you you could pair and then we'll list it so we did that
with the sps yeah and sps is up like 300x since that time like it was done at like under like one cent or something it was done at
some ridiculous price um and then that is now our biggest pool on eath which is the spx ox pool so
it's pretty uh it's pretty hilarious um and same with like retardios well we had a retardio pool
and then retardio went 80x um i was in a colleague we should have just had like a treasury of all these meme coins at that
time um we essentially did yeah through the pools but yeah i think we should have like
had a liquid treasury of these um and then nuked them at the top every meme coin i bought early was like uh i mean like if i just
did the meme of like uh just placing all of my buys in that first six months and then not looking
and then coming back at the right point but also if i came back now instead of the right point
like i got really lucky uh with my ledger and then trapping myself in taipei well because it's
like i would have missed the spx thing kind of a jail move as well it's like a self-jailing
like i i attribute a lot of my success this cycle to the fact that i left my ledger in the states
and then left like this is the only cycle that i've actually sold within like, uh, anything close to the top actually. Um,
so like, I, I think I'm just going to do it again next time.
Like I'm just going to leave ledgers in various places and
see what happens.
because like basically everything i did mean coin trenches wise it was like the amount of effort
that i put in for the amount of money that i got out it was like i can't even say if i honestly
broke profit on any of the like random meme coin shit that i did uh so i just very quickly pivoted
to just saying like at some market cap i'm just going to short
them all yeah like if you look at our client flow now they're basically like fomo shorting
meme coins right yeah my only early edge this cycle was starting to short meme coins before
it became consensus that you should short meme coins now it's consensus so it's like i don't
even know if it's a great idea anymore i mean the daily runners they just always have this trajectory that's like
um like formulaic some of them i mean but well like that that was the thing also that like
you know when things actually ran you could not just like short it and say i'm going to hold this
short right like you could not just say i'm going to hold this short right like you could not
just say I'm going to go 1x short like uh whatever whatever coin hits 700 mil because like what if
it does dog but now it's just like well we know it's not going to do that so yeah the risk of
shorting went down a lot and also with how fast the market cycles played out.
Like I know that at some point,
if I am in a short,
even if it's a very low like leverage short,
and I'm down like,
like if a coin goes up 5X,
like I will be panicking still,
even though it's like I am confident
at some point it will go down,
but I will panic increasingly harder.
And at some point I might just wake up at 3 AM
and do something really retarded
and close the short for like a massive loss
right?
That was my other edge this cycle
was realizing that I'm like
I'm too girlish in my
inclinations and too whimsical and
so i should just like let uh let an algo manage it that's the big thing i think people would do
a lot better if they just had ai ai managed portfolios not because ai is that good but
because it doesn't make mistakes in the same way yeah like ai is like in general, like I've out, I've outperformed all of my, uh, like my algo
trading, which is like really, really fucking minimum at this point. But like, it's just enough
that like, uh, I, I cannot randomly fuck it up by waking up and being like a retard sometime.
And like, that's actually like a huge downside risk is the chance of
just waking up in the middle of the night after you had like a nightmare or something and like just closing huge positions at a massive loss
honestly yeah what if we just what if we just build out like uh we we just train people to
use the ox api on the screen uh to make trading rules i think we'd have to look at client data too much and that would be like bad.
But like, I bet if we looked at every user's account, we could probably find a set of like
seven rules that we just make like, we tell them like, okay, this is how you make money
and this is how you lose money.
Like, this is how you specifically make and lose money, particularly when you're trading.
Like, I can definitely look at my trades on OX and say that, right? is how you specifically make and lose money particularly when you're trading like i can
definitely look look at my trades on odds and say that right like i can absolutely just look at my
portfolio and say like these are all the things i do when i'm about to lose a lot of money no
that would be pretty interesting actually i mean yeah no i mean the really interesting question about the markets now
is like what what happens if even if trump wants to pump stocks he can't right like if that actually
got into that mode like just confidence has been lost like you were saying the other day yeah yeah like that
that's possible i think because the problem is that the pees are a little bit too high
so you can have a pe like you know decay of like 40 percent of just like earnings
um i mean earnings will fall a lot also but then like like PEs can also fall. So if you do like the PEN earnings double fall,
and then let's say he starts trying to talk stocks back up.
He tries to like say we're going to, you know,
let's say the Fed lowers rates and stocks fall anyways.
Like that, that actually becomes like pretty, pretty like brutal.
So yeah. Like how do you, like how do you even
how do you even solve that?
You basically have to wage war at that point.
You have to be like, why am I Germany at that point?
You're like, okay, well now we need to just like take stuff.
Like we need to take assets from
places.
trying to say we need to protest now,
bro. It's not how China works.
No protests.
Nihilism mode.
Yen caricature.
Protesting is a very Western concept, isn't it?
I mean, in China, they have protests also, but like a smaller scale.
Like they'll protest against like local policies.
You don't really have have mass protests as much.
Do they just get shut down if they do happen?
Way quicker than the West?
Not really.
They usually let them go. In China, you can
insult a police officer all day
and they don't care. This happens
all the time. Some old grandma will be
mad that the police didn't do something. She'll go and like badger them it's very common
there's a guy who stands with like a nazi flag outside one of the buildings here like every
single day he's just waving it around and uh yeah like people just sometimes come up to him and talk
like it just doesn't die no It doesn't appear to matter.
I don't even know if he's pro-Nazi
or if he's saying that
the Taiwanese are Nazis or something.
I don't even know his positioning.
I just know that he generally
goes unmolested, except by
American travelers who are like...
They sometimes just walk up and say,
what are you doing?
Not like, what are you doing? You're so evil. like they're just interested yeah just like a confusing thing to see
that would confuse the out of me honestly
yeah
i don't know i think that's what a lot of the americans are starting to realize now like what if
he actually can't turn this bigot on?
I think China has said to local firms,
you cannot invest in American companies anymore.
Imagine if American stocks get this de-risking premium.
Like, you know, we're saying he tries to pump them back for elections, but like imagine he can't pump them.
We're saying he tries to pump them back for elections,
but imagine he can't pump them.
Right.
Because if he says he's going to print money and then buy, like literally buy stocks, like people will dump on him in that case.
Right.
Because they're like, this is now.
Right.
Like this is my chance to get out.
Yeah.
So and then you have like the problem of like competitiveness.
Like if you lose that competitiveness, then you actually just giga cooked.
Right.
Like at that point.
It's actually a little bit disturbing to think about.
Mac 7, none of these companies existed 25 years ago.
Aside maybe Microsoft.
Yeah, except Microsoft.
The business is so different than that as well.
Apple, yeah. But they were tiny different than as well. Apple, yeah.
But they were tiny.
Apple was tiny.
Apple was nothing.
I think maybe the bottom is when Buffett
actually deploys his cash
in these crazy things.
He's the backstop of the US economy again.
Yeah, he's again selling puts
without putting up any
money he's like selling puts on the max seven and saying sure i'll buy the stuff 10 down i'm not
giving you any collateral because i'm more solvent than you are and um yeah it's almost what you need
to do um because like the earnings decay is going to be crazy like i can't even imagine right now
um yeah based on like the increased cost of materials and stuff basically or
yeah increased cost of materials also just like boycotting of american products like
it's just going to be international. Yeah.
Yeah, I don't really know how we like win against China
in like sort of like a chicken game.
It doesn't really make sense to me.
I don't think it can.
And especially not against the whole world.
Like if it was just China
and then they like actually
were good to the allies,
then I think there's some world
where like everyone boycotts China.
But the problem is that they're like like it was like i boycott everyone else you know so it puts yeah we're like fighting everybody at the same time that's really difficult yeah i mean i'm
sure there's some phrase in art of war that says like don't fight everyone at the same time like
hitler did the same thing he fought everyone at the same time and then after world war ii people like why did he fight the russians what
why did he lose a half his army fighting inside siberia there's no value there like there's no
go into stalingrad in the winter and like get nuked basically right like because even if he
takes stalingrad like then what like yeah like the point? Yeah, now you control some shitty place in the winter.
But I think it's the kind of thing where if you're expanding,
you just think like, okay, take this, take that.
Yuan devaluation is coming for sure.
But is that even really, like, a problem?
Not a problem for China.
It's a problem for the US.
It's more of a problem for us because we don't manufacture.
You don't manufacture, yeah.
Exactly.
Like, and especially even their asset prices, like I think they could probably just, um,
intentionally sort of like print to keep at, keep their financial markets afloat much better
than we could.
They're going to literally stimulate now to turn it into a consumer economy like the
U S that they're going to be like, well, everyone can just sell products into the, into China
now.
And then they can get a lot of like bilateral trade going that way.
So yeah. I don't trade going that way. Yeah, like we literally don't have,
like we have to like build all of the manufacturing first
for us to like-
It takes five years.
Yeah, how are you going to build these things?
You're going to build, yeah.
Like this stuff is going to like continue deteriorating
much quicker than we can actually bring manufacturing back.
Yeah, exactly, exactly.
And then each earnings of all these big companies is going to like
surprise the downside by like 40% or something.
And then stocks are going to nuke again.
And then he's going to be like, okay, but we're going to manufacture.
But like the whole idea of manufacturing this stuff, it's like,
everyone can see that it can't happen and like that quickly.
Yeah. Yeah.
I guess the other really big problem is that like uh the main benefit of like uh the
american manufacturing mean historically has been like oh you you pay more for a good but it lasts
longer right yeah this is inherently a value that you only realize on like a five to ten year time
frame like you buy the washer and it doesn't break after 30 years now you've realized the benefit of the
american manufacturing but like uh you don't actually it's completely untrue well it's not
it's not true it's untrue now but it's like it could be true in some world where you return to
like uh manufacturing for like longevity right uh but like i'm just assuming that you do that and it works, right? But even
in the best case scenario where that does all pan out, you only realize it on a very long time.
Yeah. Like Enzo was saying that it's, which I agree with him, that it is important for the US
to bring back manufacturing. So we're not like falling behind militarily since everything's
like more focused on drones now and stuff. need like the manufacturing capability but like the way that we're going about this seems just very poorly thought out like uh
like we should have done this with like um positive you know like i don't know like tax
benefits or something to try to like get the specific manufacturing we need back here rather
than just tariffing everybody on the planet it's's like an insane way to do it. I do think you could say, I do think you,
yeah, it is like insane.
But I do also think that it's one of those things
where at a given level of comfortability,
it just won't happen.
I don't necessarily know that you can like
soft stick it into happening.
Like I don't really know that you could
softly incentivize American manufacturing to a meaningful degree
if there's alternatives that are still
more profitable, easier,
especially on a short time frame
when you don't know who's going to be in office
in four years.
Drone manufacturing.
They should literally make better drones, yeah.
They should just spend $100 billion
investing more in drone tech.
They don't need to do this tariff stuff.
Yeah, it could have been completely private like how they already do right now you know like uh
yeah yeah exactly but that's all they needed to do but i think trump i think he liked this idea of
like you nuke stocks to then pump them later but this is like a very like there's some childlike
elements to this idea because you you can definitely nuke
stocks but can you pump them back after you nuke them is a different question right um because
maybe you can't at that point so that like go a little too hard or something you go a little bit
too hard and the reaction function is a little bit different as well so i'm seeing some signs of like
the market's now pricing this in now like wait what if he loses
control because he must control the bond market right the bond market is not behaving the way
they want it at first bond yields with below and now they're like skyrocketing again like that
actually increased the cost like what if he does tariffs and then bond yields go to like five and
a half percent on the 10-year like then what's the story right yeah it's just broken for just
like then what's the story right yeah just broken we're just we're just screwed at that point yeah
so then he has to like show a win he's gonna invade Canada he's gonna annex it that's probably
what that's like why he was already talking about this we'll like go invade Greenland with they're
like 200,000 people annex the cartels he's gonna use the cartels as an excuse annex mexico and then you're and then
you're on for world war three that's the scenario so because then once once one major power starts
it the way this tends to work is one major power starts it then other regions in the world start
activating and they're like well you know now we can go and make a move right yeah they annex
something so yeah so yeah they can move into the satellite
states and they can set up puppet government um yeah and then probably in the end there's
like four countries again in the world something like that um yeah
bonds are ripping because china's dumping yeah true but it's also the idea of like
you know inflation like is inflation going to go down in the u.s is maybe not because of the
tariffs right so do you think that uh like is there is there in general a benefit to
making the american consumer less sensitive uh to total poverty by inflicting
a few total poverty on yeah it's very communist it's a very cultural revolution it's like because
that was also the idea of cultural revolution which was so i think he's actually studied it
um which is they want you to accept poverty that it's like good for you it's austerity basically
um like what china did was during cultural revolution is it took all the elites and all
the people in cities and then said you really should be more like a farmer uh the farmers
hold up the economy and so they sent them to basically the countryside to like a farm by hand
for like two years um this is actually really bullish for our
idea of uh lucas teaching everyone how to live like a uh like a raccoon person yeah like this
is really really bullish for lucas poverty as a service yeah tutorials that that caused the first
generation of people just like getting the out of china because like like my parents were in that
generation like they had to like the year they're going to college they're supposed to go to college
they are like they have to go and like basically uh like farm in the countryside for two years
instead of going to college and then they go to college afterward but it's like that generation
after like they could they just like went to the states because they're like this is retarded but
then later on it's like I think now if you get this um like you get this
effect of um of like okay if you have like imagine if america's like okay we have these factories now
uh like imagine they actually manufacture like we have these factories now guys it's time to work
like i don't know how people are going to react you know you like let's say you cut all these white collar jobs and you have these like uh like manufacturing jobs um like older people might be like nostalgic
for those jobs can young people will they want those jobs i don't know if they can do them
also like i do think i do think frankly manufacturing right now is a lot harder than
it needs to be like is it you know like we're at a point in the uh
in like the industrial cycle where there are actually a lot of like superior like welding
machining etc processes to the ones that we're using i guess i tweet the other day some guy
saying like is there any reason why laser welding shouldn't just take over standard like uh mig tape
processes and it's like actually no for like small scale stuff like uh for for
most like uh sub like i don't know half inch plate thick welding it's like ah you could actually just
do laser and if you scale this it'll be like way cheaper easier and it's like you're no longer
breathing in the same degree of just like absolute noxic nanovapor fumes uh like all of this stuff could get easier uh there's a lot of countries
that have actually like you know it's like in the same way that when a country is first
industrializing they're adopting whatever the most recent like telecom industry standard is
and they wind up having like a more advanced network than the u.s like you go to some random
second world agent country and they just have like notoriously better uh network infrastructure than the us you can get gigabit ethernet for like two dollars a month or something
like that you go to the us and it's like now this is somehow like a uh like 180 monthly proposition
it goes out all the time because there's only like three media providers or three uh
like uh internet service providers and like all of, uh, whatever your region is. Um, so like there is a way that all of this can be better
and more and more efficient. And I think like whatever the existing system was,
was definitely incentivizing us to like not do that more. Uh,
even with basic production mechanisms.
Yeah. I mean, historically, these are like the ingredients for total war, right?
Because what happens is you create this manufacturing demand that is is set up and then you find that the
thing you manufacture has no buyer for it naturally and then you say well why don't we
just employ them as soldiers instead right yeah and because then at least i can pay them for like
invading stuff and then it's like a plus ev. Cause that's like, okay, if I invaded Canada
and I've taken over that that's like ROI,
I can pay them to do it.
But like, yeah, if you have factories
getting more efficient, different tech, new tech,
there's still not that much demand for that.
Like high school grad who wants a job in manufacturing
that pays more than, you know,
like the manufacturing jobs overseas,
they pay much
less and they require more work so the like the same factory in the u.s given the inflation yes
us is going to produce a product that that's like a 9k iphone basically right so um that that just
doesn't add up so you you have to basically produce like uh like manufacturing of defense essentially
and then like all defense tech and you have to literally put it to work to get roi on it
so like and the problem i think for america is that like a lot of their military spend has been
helping allies defend their shit like trump is not wrong so he's like helping like nato to defend
their stuff or helping Japan defend.
And so they may just be like, I'm going to charge for defense now. Right. That's what Trump's trying to do. He's like, I want to tax you tributary state for defense or else I'm going to like
just invade and stuff. Right. And like, like collect what I'm like, I'm going to recruit
my investment on defense basically. It's pretty nuts, actually. I've been kind of war pill the last few days i think it's i think
it's coming um we're finally doing it all the finance boomers are right things happening the
people who have been holding holding uh like just pounds of like gold uh bars yeah finally vindicated
like part of trump's calculus here has to be that like there's total
war at the end of it and he wants it to happen right i think that that's part of his calculus
which then makes it a lot more understandable because it's like um you know like he has a
chance to be the first to expand the like the boundaries of the us in like 100 years right so
yeah i think what's going to end up happening with manufacturing is like instead of employing people boundaries of the U S in like a hundred years. Right. So. Yeah.
I think what's going to end up happening with manufacturing is like, instead of employing people and you get like a nine K iPhone, they're just gonna,
like if they're forced to actually bring this stuff back to the States,
they're just going to automate much more of the process. So like,
it'll just be like robotics. So we'll still end up cheaper than nine K,
but it's like a, it's not going to create jobs here.
No, there's no way to create those jobs other
than to put them into the army like that's the only job yeah that is like that's i it made me
think about that when you said that like like uh that makes sense now you know yeah the same thing
in germany right like they create the conflict they say we are the victim like in germany was
the victim post treaty of our side they had these big reparations and then they're like well the world is against us and we need to expand and then and then because they're
buying weapons and they're buying this tech there's the weapon seller is always like well we're we're
bullish war right because that's good for our business yeah then they always find the credit
to buy the weapons because the margins on selling weapons is always like a bajillion percent so i
mean i guess that is one like positive factor for the
us is we have um a lot of weapons manufacturing already so yeah you almost need war for this
thing to work out yeah yeah exactly um i think sometimes it's like a bit of a boyish thing where
it's like you have all these weapons it would be a shame if no one got to use them you know it's like
like i want to know if this stuff works or not so
yeah we did finally switch to a uh to a new army firearm one that actually kills people also
so that could be bullish previously we had stuff that was really good at poking holes in people but
yeah low killing like if you think about the world that's like a risk like a risk game like
a game of risk that board game it's like america's just like primed to like spread into latin america
and like up into greenland and like take you take the uk from the top right oh yeah yeah it's just prime for that move taking the uk would
be crazy i mean it's sort of like are you gonna take the uk or a random like arabs gonna take the
uk it's like there's no reason you should lose to land random arabs i mean that's the narrative that
they're pushing right so yeah So yeah, very bullish war.
I think the European German like manufacturers are up like 20 X or something in two months.
Like the European rearmament trade.
It's massive.
Yeah, they're saying he wants a 1 trillion defense budget.
I don't honestly know if that's good or bad. This is the problem. We're getting into like
a territory where I just have no idea about any of this. Like I can pretty easily model out
like what will happen if someone creates like a new DeFi primitive and like releases it to the
market. Like I will be able to successfully guess now how like the retail market is going to respond to this. I actually do not
have a model of global finance. I have not, I have not like attempted to build this out yet.
So now anytime anyone says some new thing that it's like, it's so outside the scope of like,
what's been tried before. And then they're just like, this is so either X, like it's either good
or bad, or this is, I i'm like i actually don't know
like i cannot realistically tell you that i have any idea what any of this means now
we're just like outside uh out of the nest
no it's like a much bigger system for sure yeah
and it depends on things that are like not rational market activities at
a certain point right like that's the big thing we're now like uh pricing in sort of like sentiment
in a way that is non-speculative uh it's like how much does like this given country value like their own defense, like being, being
them versus being some other party versus being like something that they pay for versus
something that they engage in, like some sort of like a trade deficit to allow happening.
And it's different and I don't actually like I don't have a model
for like how does the Indian people respond to this versus the Chinese people versus the
Japanese people you know yeah I mean nobody's like traded a world war since 70 years ago
so it's they might want to start playing RTSs.
There's two things we need to do on the stream.
We need to start playing war games
and we need to start using
Ox.Fun APIs to see if we can
make a successful algo trader.
Yes.
What are some good...
We should do that.
Warcraft 3.
We should get Enzo in on it too.
Enzo's like algo pilled. Enzo's like algo-pilled.
Enzo's really fucking good at this stuff.
I'm convinced that if Enzo just gets bored enough,
he's going to create some sort of...
I don't even know if it'll be like AI,
but he will create some trading algo
that will just make him a billionaire in the next 10 years
by just like iterating on things because he was bored yeah
what race do i mean on warcraft 3 undead is probably my strongest race but i can play all
all the races it's more fun to play on random usually um
but i haven't kept up with the last few years of balance changes I know they changed a lot of
balance stuff but but Hasu is actually really good at work out through I think he was like
almost a pro player the guy used to do uncommon core with so
but walker 3 is such a lindy game like it keeps like coming back and then now there's tournaments again in like south korea and china and europe is really popular as well
yeah if you're org i usually do blademaster
um i think hasu is not doing lido he's doing he's an advisor for lido but i think he does um Orc, I usually do Blademaster.
I think Hatsu is not doing Lido. He's an advisor for Lido, but I think he does, what is it called?
Flashbots. Flashbots.
Corby is like this French player, right?
Or some kind of European Orc player is really good.
Ready for Gulag.
Gulag is...
Is this currently Gulag or more Gulag?
gulag or with more gulag it feels like more gulag is coming
like at this point sailors uh average price might get tested i think I think. So what do you think about this whole getting rid of income tax type deal?
So I think he probably wants to do this transition from like no income tax to like consumption
tax, right?
Which the terms are kind of like consumption tax but um
it depends on like the like the budget right like he he if he can't balance the budget then he's not
going to get the tax cuts through and if rates have gone higher um and they're not actually
collecting that much from tariffs then you actually can't lower income tax.
Where's the next big ETH target? I think there's a big one around 1150 or so. I wonder if he'll just like do it anyway. Like what is the income tax really that I'm not how much of that is that actually pays the federal
budget anyways isn't it mostly like printing yeah i mean if he cuts income tax that is a big stimulus
but it's not it's not necessarily going to pass by that time because like congress will be scared
because again like yields might again blow out. Right.
Yeah.
Like the default risk of the U S is going higher and higher now. Like that's why yields are going up because people want,
people are scared of that,
like rapid devaluation of dollar,
which is great for Bitcoin obviously.
but,
that would be,
that would be actual max pain is if us dollar goes to zero and stable coins,
all,
uh, spiritually depeg. Everyone's building stable coins like bro, no one wants to hold dollars in this kind of scenario.
Like it's actually like Argentina. There's actually a lot of similarities to like early 20th century Argentina right now.
So you could have like a if it's like 08, you have a Bitcoin moving like gold.
So first gold did like a thousand to 800 and then gold like basically went to 2000, right?
So you have like Bitcoin go the wrong way first because of the liquidity crash.
And then people realize the dollars are literally worthless.
People are selling out of bonds and then repatriating.
Japan is repatriating so much money right now.
Japanese like dollar yen goes back under a hundred.
You know, you have this window of like japan cheap and now japan's super expensive again for americans like
it used to be like that's kind of it's kind of what i feel like it's gonna happen macro wise now
like it would make a lot of sense to me so it's a scenario where it's like you literally don't, there's no assets that you can hold
safely.
I mean, you know, like yen, I think Japanese yen, Swiss franc, traditional safe havens,
safe haven currencies.
You can hold Bitcoin dominance longs, I guess.
That's a safe haven asset.
My Taiwan dollars are going up.
There were dollars. I guess that's a safe haven asset. My Taiwan dollars are going up.
There were dollars.
Taiwan dollars is a safe haven asset.
Yeah.
Cause Taiwan has a massive, it's ironic to people because they think it was like, I was
going to get invaded, whatever.
But Taiwan has like the biggest trade surplus in global history.
Like literally Taiwan exports like shit tons of stuff and imports almost nothing.
So there's these talent life insurance companies that
make like these like billions of dollars a year and they have to invest overseas so if they
repatriate back in taiwan that always strengthens the town dollar um but um yeah
north korean won wonder how to get exposure to North Korea
I'm very bullish from North Korea actually
Does it seem difficult to even like get financial exposure to it?
It's difficult, yeah it's difficult
before the enhanced sanctions
that I think uh
Obama put in, you could get exposure
like Singapore is one of the countries that was doing a
lot of business like a lot of companies were doing business so you were like there were guys like
importing sodas and like food like stuff and like selling at pretty high markups um like you can
still do it like by russia or china i'm sure but you probably should be a chinese or russian citizen
to do that properly um yeah it's like i don't think it's something you
want to touch as an american for sure that's uh american you don't want to touch it like
if virgil griffith had just not been american he would have been fine right uh i feel like if he
was like any other country almost he would have been fine um but yeah so i don't know like it's
like iran for instance if you're french you French, there's no sanctions, I believe,
for most Europeans into Iran.
So you can just do business in Iran.
You can have an Iran private equity fund, for instance.
Or if you're Japan, they do a lot of business with Iran as well.
So you can just be focusing on Iranian business.
Iranian business right so Iran's probably also not that bullish though
because of oils gonna go to zero looks like as well yeah oil dumping is like
bad that's just like straight up like demand flat indicator global depression. This is like global depression or possibilities.
Why Belosia North Korea? Yeah. I mean, they have the same genetic population as South Korea.
They have a better framework now because
framework now because I mean basically they just have so much room to grow right
like from such a low base and it's generally like becoming a pretty normal
I think it's becoming like a more normal society. So I think that,
you know, like Kim Jong-un isn't that extreme.
Yeah, it's a shame that the Trump summit in Singapore a few years ago didn't lead to more,
because I think Trump also wanted to be like the peacemaker north kirk because i think he sensed that this is like a dumb battle but um yeah i think the deep state didn't like it
lazarus sold their bitcoin for you i saw they sold a small amount but i don't think it was a big amount
maybe they're listening to the stream yesterday when you said they should put the bottom in
FBDC 01888. Yeah, I agree. US real estate is going to gig a collapse. The foreign buyers are all terrified of by the US now.
They're scared of capital controls.
They're also scared of interest rates, so.
And then no one can get visas either. College degrees are harder to obtain now how are they hard to obtain
yeah i didn't quite understand that either
i mean they might be harder to obtain now in the sense that like uh
nobody has any money and you could still just borrow though.
They're going to be I mean, presumably they're going to be more meritocratic.
And with AI, it's like you don't even need to do anything.
Yeah, college.
I actually college got somewhat debunked in many ways.
debunked in many ways.
Yeah.
You can meet a better network
on the internet than you can from college
in almost all cases.
You can learn more and faster
from AI in almost all cases
until you get into a hyper-specific
niche territory, which
frankly, most people didn't anyway.
If we're going to be honest, most people were not like learning groundbreaking, bleeding
edge stuff in college.
Obviously some were, so there's still like utility for that.
But like, those are mostly like the people going on for like PhD stuff anyway.
Yeah.
And you'd think that if that system didn't exist, they'd probably just like those people
would still be doing it.
Yeah. Figure it out some other way, like with the internet or something.
Well, I mean, like, this was one of the open AI guys, actually, who he was one of the like, first open AI hires.
And like the way that he like learned stuff when he wanted to was like, he just, while remote working, relocated himself to like live with like the professor that he was trying to learn from and just like walked into his thing he wasn't even at the universe he just walked in and like
professors are very rarely like wow this person has read all of my stuff and they're very interested
in this field and uh they're like willing to talk to me about it like him right yeah yeah they're
usually just euphoric.
If you ever email a professor about their work,
they're almost always just like,
holy shit, this is amazing.
They always respond.
Someone said cryptocurrency represents
the greatest misallocation of wealth in human history.
That's an interesting way to put it.
Like, is it completely overvalued?
Like, just misallocation.
Like, the potential for, like, mis...
But I think it's, like...
Yeah, it comes and goes, I think it comes and goes.
Yeah. World Liberty Phi doesn't have any obligation to hold anything. I had actually
heard rumors that they were selling like last month already, which is kind of disturbing because
I thought they were going to like use it as a portfolio to like do something. But I think maybe they got scared that Mark is in a nude.
I think the issue is that like outside of Bitcoin, which looks like it's war resistant,
everything else is like generally speaking, like partnering with the ecosystem, like partnering
with the rest of the world, but it doesn't capture enough value from that partnership so it's like relies on this vague uh idea of adoption
so it's just like you know if you go into a world where like you know it's much more adversarial like
announcing partnerships doesn't matter like there's some telegram app i saw that has like clinton has two two million dAUs or like maus and it's selling for eight thousand dollars um
because it's just like unless you can like bring in hard cash like yeah
what's the point yeah we definitely have like stuff that's just zombie protocols that are still
worth billions of dollars it's kind of ridiculous yeah eventually in that probably just get farmed to zero right
so I think crypto is very good at making new lottery systems, new gambling systems.
I think it's been less good at real world stuff outside of stable coins.
But, sorry, I'm just going to shut down these drones. Thank you. Rough. Hmm.
So, Sue, if you had to make $10 million in the next four years, what are your plays?
That's a good question.
I think Ox is the only play if you're talking about $10 million.
dollars um no
Yeah.
i think you have to create slash use
um like in crypto at least it's got to be like revenue chip generating products
we must use ox to prove that you can generate revenue on it
i'm looking at this tweet from um so 1953 was the korean war and then i think mal was asked like
how long will the korean war last
and he just said i don't think we need to decide we'll fight as long as we want
um and the korean war never officially ended either um and then 18 years later kissinger
flew to a secret meeting with joe in line the the the premier to like basically say like let's not fight anymore so it could take like 18 years
for the fight to end
with that fractal stands up Swifties, yeah, Taylor Swift, Taylor Swift Protocol.
Yeah, Barry, I think the thing with Aux,
we need to figure out how to expand the community size.
That's why we are probably going to ship
the um the competitions where you have like the 30 minute windows um yeah
yeah
I think that's a good one. I also now am... Sayuki, we should genuinely try to make an
i think that's a good one i i also now am uh
ox algo trader with the monkey coins now that ox are in the price range where we're all just
thinking, I don't know, we can gamble with it. I want to see if we can i want to see if we can make like a set of algos on stream that
works i don't know if like people are really going to want to watch us like code algos on
stream no not coding but just like they'll just probably be interested in the rules
yeah or like the results we can like yeah just watching watching the account like do whatever it
does what's the elevator pitch in the window thing
yeah so basically it's a 30 minute uh tournament trading tournament type thing where you are
trading on historical price data but you don't know when it's from and it's fast forwarded it's
it's sped up by like 1000x so let's say you're trading the covet crash or you're trading some like you know 2013 bitcoin or something um whatever it is and then because it's sped up so
much you get to experience like a whole like events price action in like 30 minutes and then
you know it's a it's a pari-mutual pool so you win from the people who lose so like first place
parimutuel pool so you win from the people who lose so like first place down to whatever they
earn a bunch and then other people lose money so um yeah but we can do some cool stuff with that and
i think the hope is to expand the community size massively from that because we can we can get
people to like that game is like a fixed buy-in right so you're not risking as much and it's a
more streamable format i feel so we can try to use like you know like the normal streaming funnels
to get people to try it um so we can ship that in like a few days it's not hard to ship um
and then worst case you guys can play with us right we can give you invite codes if we give
you a certain invite code you can then like when you register on oxphone you get to play you get
your first buy-in free so so you can play with us and the stuff will be like ten
dollar buy-ins right it's not gonna be high buy-ins or try to reach like a hundred thousand people
with like low buy-ins because i think before aux fun is like you know a lot of you know a few power
users are using it a lot and like you know losing and making a lot and i think that then you have a
smallish tail and this would be like very very long long tail of people. So yeah, it's a bit like, you know, I was inspired by Rollbit's
rollercoaster product, but that one is like too meaningless. You just know you're gambling,
whereas this is like you're, you're studying history, right?
So that's the product idea that we ripped on.
I think if we just have rollercoaster,
no one's going to care because it's already on Rollbit
and I don't think people care anymore.
Yeah, aux.edu.
This is Edufy.
I think it'd be really funny if we push for Edufy branding.
Like aux.fun is educational.
Education beta.
It's doubly funny with the .fun domain.
Can we get ox.edu?
I assume we can't.
I assume that's actually pretty hard to get.
Ox.gov.
No one's running a site on ox.edu.
It could be possible. No one's running a site on aux.edu.
Possible.
No one's running what?
There's no website on aux.edu right now.
Now we're going to squat on that domain. I mean, we're not going to pay more than $1,000 of aux for it.
Actually, a million aux.
Okay.
That's about 2K. Okay.
Aux is edutech.
It's the future of education. It's like Giggle Academy, Aux Academy.
I think with EDU, it's kind of restricted though. You can't just register that. You
need to have an actual education, like a college or something. There's accreditation or something
like that.
We can do it though. Like this is educational, right? Someone will vouch for us, right?
Just open up like Ox College in the States. That's all you'd have to do. I think so.
Wow, I've been a Costco member for a really long time.
How's it going?
Yeah.
Heading out?
Yeah, makes sense.
I'll be back to, like, I think, like, Sunday.
At least for a few days.
Yeah, I still like to do this argument when I go to the US again.
But yeah, I guess I'm working on the, it's kind of like this idle state
where it's awkward.
Like, I don't want to just go to the us
and just like know around i'm like very high committed down to the asian time zone and yeah
i have a gym pass here so i don't want to just go to like a random city like new could be like a few days like a week yeah and also
so i can't get to uh i was speaking to about it to come here and then whenever i booked my
ticket he was like oh yeah i'm not gonna be there and then now that i have to go to same form for some other things once we go here and shoot there which you know basically the day that i'm going there
and he's like leaving we're up this weekend yeah sue when are you coming back here tomorrow back
tomorrow you're back tomorrow yeah i don't want to say the exact day
You're back tomorrow?
Yeah.
I don't want to say the exact day.
I don't want to be talks or something.
What time are you feeling like?
What time am I back?
Yeah, what time are you feeling in your heart?
Probably afternoon.
Wow.
You excited?
Yeah.
Get the whole gang back.
Nice. Yeah. you excited yeah get the whole gang back nice yeah
imagine now instead of using these goofy mics we'll both be sitting there
right next to each other in the room again nice
are you excited to bike into work now yes definitely
can uh can join the gym you guys go to as well and i'm back
been working out a bunch last few weeks so oh yeah that'll be epic. That'll be fun. I don't want to call it a vlog because it makes it seem like over edited, but even just
like a 60 second little video, like 15 seconds every day, just doing the miscellaneous things,
it'll be interesting.
It's relatable, it shows your early being.
So it's cool.
Like if you just went to do some reps or whatever next door in the gym.
It'd be funny.
It'd be interesting, so.
Yeah, but then the response, I guess, is like, not looking good here, but fine.
Nobody knows.
Nobody knows.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I'm trying to fill out a Costco Taiwan membership. like we need like we need dry color
it took like an hour to get a sim card i was like this is kind of insane
yeah it's just buying everything here takes a long time
that's really the only complaint i've had here so far everything else is very nice like
very look full it's like you're not getting completely rigged for no reason in prices.
It's a little different obviously.
Everything is at least, from my perspective, an 8 out of 10. It's very solid and good.
Very little down the side, at least so far pretty easily connected a lot of major cities from here
yeah and obviously you guys are you guys have some sort of operation here so
does anyone know what the difference between Google Gemini and Google Assistant is?
I think Assistant is like an app that uses Gemini under the hood or something like that.
All I know is my phone switched one for the other on me and now it can't do anything
and I need to unfuck it somehow.
All right, I'll do some work. I'll see you before I know. Maybe an hour, hour and a half, ish. Yeah, it's probably... The airport down here is pretty fast.
probably the airport down here is pretty fast um yeah i just i'm like uh i like to get there like
between like two and three hours before i take off really i like to get there between 20 and
35 minutes before i take off i actually hate like i've been i think it's because my mom used to
always be late that was a kid like she's like always late. So I just have like PTSD from like showing up like 10 minutes before a flight.
Just like running to the terminal.
Or like getting stuck in traffic and having to like, I don't know.
I just don't want to deal with that shit.
Yeah.
I mean, like how bad is that you're on your phone, your laptop.
Like it's not like...
I just get nothing done in airports at all.
Just get zero done.
I go through my chats that I haven't responded or uh get like caught up on that sort of stuff
or just like read something interesting or kind of get like a clip today with what's happening with
you know like the crypto news kind of stuff um yeah i don't know
and like whenever i've been here and i came into city, there was like quite a bit of traffic. So it shouldn't be too bad. It's like a weekday, like kind of like not athletic.
When people are coming home from work, it's like early, I'll believe like one-ish, two-ish. Yeah. So, it's kind of after the launch
round two, so
whatever, we'll see.
I'm still kind of salty that, like, you can't really use
the super close by airport.
I think you explained to me, or somebody
else did, where, like,
it's like a second, it's like a pristine location
for an airport, but they, like, they don't want to fuck over the other airport, so they only route, like, global flags here. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. to a smaller airport.
That's a bit tricky.
Me, Sayuki,
I think Sue just went somewhere
oh he's here he just popped back instantly
i'm not aware of any consumer facing automated trading platforms that offer just enough customization that keeps people engaged that is historically very hard actually because kucoin
has a very similar product to this uh but they don't give me enough variables and i think they
give the average consumer too many variables uh it's like a very complicated thing to break down
to a normal person yes the problem is right now actually like the zoomer uh mind share is so hard to gain
capture of that like in order in order for a product to be like autistic and uh like
complicated enough that it can reliably make you profits i think it also has to exclude like 97
percent of zoomers from caring about the product. For like automated trading in specific or?
Yeah, but I mean, for a lot of things, actually, like there's a lot of products that are just
non-viable now because in order to understand it well enough to use it, you have to be able
to pay attention to things longer than the average Zoomer wants to.
I think this is actually a problem with a lot of like the complicated DeFi protocols,
like why they didn't really do either kind of dead now.
Cause it's like,
there's just too much configuration and like,
it's kind of a complicated thing to pay attention to.
It's the same thing with concentrated LPs,
right?
Like you actually could have like,
there are a lot of guys who this entire cycle,
all they've done is LP and like,
just,
I think on chain lp in general
is like a good example like lp was really good this cycle because actually it may have been the
only cycle of all time where like there was a primitive that got invented the previous cycle
and actually there was less competition in the field than there was last cycle there's also like
no one probably lost this cycle like they're like for like stuff, because it doesn't run fast
enough. Like if you own a coin, you just LP it, you're going to outperform if it goes
up like versus if it going up, right?
Especially like the meme coins on Solana, because it was like, you know, some of these
things were doing like 20, 30 million dollars volume a day on like 200k liquidity or something
like that.
Yeah, you're saying like, oh oh like this is so fake they're just
like washing volume and it's like okay well then just let let them watch it's still it's still
routing it through the pool yeah like i think if i had to go back and do the last year or two over
again i would have spec'd like i would have started shorting sooner and i would have spec'd
really fucking heavy into lp-ing yeah i think that was a good move for meme coins for sure i know some
people that printed really hard lp i only really lp'd mog uh and i think if i had done it on solana
and gotten used to the solana like uh like if i'd gotten used to the meteora uh the meteora pools i
probably could have like if i because i've started playing around with them a little bit now but i'm
realizing like oh my god like i missed out on actually like generational, generational free money by just not.
And you can also tell, you can tell that it actually made money this cycle because nobody fucking talked about it.
Yeah.
Like nobody was out there shilling you LPs or concentrated liquidity pools.
It's just like you run across a guy at like an event.
And if you're good enough,, just like a really autistic dude.
Yeah. They'll share with you their strategy and you're like, oh, that's where all of the smart
money went this time. Definitely makes sense. They were kind of internally doing it too,
right? That was the whole thing with Libra. And they were like
doing some like really extractive
internal market making. I mean, it's
debatable how internal it actually was, but
like allegedly.
Just a general like depressing
sentiment today, like overall.
Just kind of like, yeah.
It's just like, well, i think it's because everybody was
yesterday like hoping for a little bit of euphoria bounce and then instead they got a full retrace
and now lower on most things yeah yeah i mean yesterday i didn't have a great feeling that
it's gonna like these things can't v-shape bounce right it's like you you actually need like entire
stock markets to v-shape also like it's just not that easy to get um given that like trump is digging his toes and he's taking his heels in
and also the reaction functions now you can't undo very easily um yeah like if it would have if it
was going to v-shape it would have had already done it like in trump i think it would have already
had to pivot like it's like past the point of no return almost with how it's probably past the point it's definitely past the
point and i think it's like the escalation on the geopolitical side i think is can be substantial
because now if you if you lose control of bond yields then everyone's like it's just over like
you know that's just like the dollars cooked right dollars cooked yeah like you know that that kind of world is very very dangerous actually
is it possible to like hold uh like head like a hedged dollar or something like short dxy against
the dollar does that work or no i mean you just have to hold yen i think you have to hold
yen you you got you have to hold the trade surplus countries because what they're doing is they're
selling all their dollar assets back to their home currencies to get it saved because they're
denominated in their home currencies right so when they yeah dollars and they're scared dollars are
going to weaken they need to sell those and then bring them back to yen so like yen is really good
buy japan is still a big exporter jpyY is like, oh, yeah, it's like slightly up today.
I forgot I had mine.
Yeah.
But like, honestly, most of our entities are also going to weaken versus like...
Yeah, it's just really hard to like even just kind of consider where to
park all my fiat like i don't even know if i want to like just leave it or
i don't know you just do buff it properly i just hold cash
it's fine it's basically how i am positioned so it's definitely not that bad, but it would be nice
to catch a move on JPY or something while the world's nuking.
I mean gold.
I feel like I'm buying it so high now, though.
Yeah.
It feels high.
Maybe that's just like...
I mean, who knows?
What else do you buy, though?
That's the thing.
Puts.
You can buy puts, yeah.
Basically, just like Bitcoin cash, and that's it.
That's like a little bit of US real estate,
which I guess is probably going to not do well.
I wouldn't buy real estate. It's actually one of the worst environments to buy real estate
I've ever seen. I was going to say, man, like I'm actually like...
Oh, you're like holding quite a bit.
I mean, not quite a bit, but I'm holding more than any smart person would want.
a bit but i'm holding more than any smart person would want
is it possible how do you like is it possible to hedge i guess i could short like reits or
something but those are already like trading below backing right like we're talking about that before
yeah they trade below book so in theory they'd be great rwa candidates because you could just rwa
those and someone pays now for them then it's already like a win versus what they trade out and attract by rapper um yeah
yeah real estate is hard here definitely i it is nice though that i have like uh
like the more we inflate the more ridiculous all of my uh
all of my down payments become because they're all fixed rate oh yeah i'm now i'm now at the
point where i'm just like cackling because I did all. I was so fucking dumb.
I went full like Dave Ramsey with this shit.
And I did like all 15 year mortgages with everything.
Oh, wow.
Was this like I could have I could have done fucking 30 years and I would be paying like 2K a month.
For a 3.5% interest loan for 30 years.
30 years at 4.9% now.
30 years at 4.9?
Yeah.
Huh.
That's still not too bad.
I mean, mortgages...
Yeah, mortgages are higher than that.
That's like...
Oh, I thought you were saying that was what what the mortgage is that that's
the bond that's the that's the treasury's yield oh okay yeah yeah most of my stuff is literally
like 1.875 which is like it just makes me giggle every time i think about it i'm learning also you know those like clarna
like uh pay uh per segment thing where it's like oh like you can't afford these like jordan these
air jordans like uh one or 12 or whatever they are like you can you can you can now finance this
over 24 months yeah it's like 30 or something apr, I think it's like a dynamic repricing that they do.
I found one where it was 0%.
It's usually 0% if you pick the short option.
It's like a couple payments.
But then if you actually want to...
If you're financing shoes over 12 months or something,
it's really high.
I will finance fucking anything at zero
percent bro well yeah I mean there's no point at zero percent that's just like why wouldn't you
I will find I will finance like a straight like I will finance a Costco hot dog at zero percent
interest I do not care
just imagine the yields.
Imagine the compounding yields, bros.
I think iPhones let you get like a 24 month 0% finance plan if you buy them now too, which
I don't understand why you don't just buy six million iphones and then
sell them all and then just have a free loan um it's only zero percent like on their
their like credit card financing so i just don't think that you can get enough
open line of credit to really do that in like large size yeah that's fair
that's gonna be that's gonna be like the way i make it uh all in iphone 16s i'm gonna use the indian method to open 62 apple
credit cards per hour for the next like year and then when the ip iPhone 17 Pro Max comes out, I'm going to put my entire net worth into
them and get a 0% interest loan. And maybe, I don't know, I'll resell them at like, I'll have
to sell them on the black market is the only problem. So I'll have to be moving like hundreds
of iPhones black market per day. I could sell them on this stream, right? Like, oh, you want an iPhone?
You were going to buy it new. I'll give you a four dollar discount what do you say four dollars
now i guess i'm paying like uh 1.1.2 percent interest on yeah like kills it
it kills your zero percent interesting although it's not like um compounding
yeah that's true hmm okay i think i still make it out of the hole right
depends what you do with the money if you go and lose it all i'm gonna invest it all in u.s
treasury bonds oh yeah okay yeah those i mean the bond yields might go super high right
yeah those i mean the bond yields might go super high right
it appears they are right it's not like the greatest thing that they are but
i don't know man i see the hyper sense that i'm like this must be good something cooking together
they're cooking something for me bros they wouldn't be willing to pay me this much unless uh there was a reason to hold these right boys
my bond positions go to zero i'll pivot to reiki energy honestly yeah we could do that also
we could do water filters we could do energy healing energy healing has is a good one because
it's like infinite markup but not very scalable it's only assuming the energy is free like
i paid for mine actually now the biggest intraday reversal in S&P history?
No, I did not know that.
That's crazy.
Like human history of S&P.
Like since the index was formed?
Yeah.
As an intraday move.
That's wild.
Bullish intraday reversal it's hard to win
tron is still somehow like uh
this is honestly very shocking so what kind of factories
do you think people want to work in
and don't want to work in
I'm looking at the kind of factories
do Americans want to work in
a clothing factory
I just imagine Mexicans will do those jobs right i mean americans will
work in any factory uh that has like sufficiently cool tooling and doesn't make them like die i think
yeah i really think that that's kind of the max pain like Like they say all these manufacturing jobs are going to come back,
but these jobs won't even exist because of robotics and AI.
And then they have to come up with the job at that point.
Because even the service industry right now, right,
it's going to get automated away.
Like already in most of Asia, you just order your food without a waiter.
You just like scan the qr code you
pick what you want and then you check the things off and then that's like better service than
having a waiter honestly like it is yeah you don't have to wait for the guy to come over like
the problem with waiters is is that you should be able to negatively tip them
like in many cases their service is so bad that it detracts from your experience eating at the
restaurant and you're like i actually would have preferred if i had gone back to the the kitchen
and take taking the food from the line cook myself like the way that you've achieved this is so heinous
that like i would have just preferred to use your kitchen to cook it myself yeah it's pretty much
always like also like either they're constantly harassing you
so you get annoyed or they're just like never checking on you at all. I mean, a lot of it also
is like the type of people that they hire for waiters at certain places. Sure. Just like,
yeah, it's like a highly degenerate job. It's like, I don't want to deal with uh dmv workers i don't want to deal with tsa workers
and when you replace all of the waiters with that same type of person i don't want to go out to eat
now either right like it's just and it's not this isn't even just me doing like a dog whistle it's
like uh there's like a specific type of uh even like somewhat like maybe they're in college.
But like there's like a very snarky type of like Hispanic gay guy that frequently works service jobs and also now works at the DMV.
And you're just like I just like they like actively have like contempt for all like customers at their business.
And you're just like
i just don't want to deal with you i don't want to interact with you like you're really unpleasant
they've they've like really automated like most of the dmv here now
i can do everything online basically unless it's like brand new um
idle registration or something that's pretty nice i haven't been in a while
bb says have you considered we actually just end up going to war we actually like had a whole discussion about how that's about to happen probably yeah before he before he came in
we're pretty war pilled it seems like i'm pretty war pulled you know who's been a war
guy is kyle gabies for like years now he's been saying the war is coming war is coming kyle has
very uh like the sort of gold bug like warmonger energy in some ways he does he does he's been
maybe like defense companies are a good asset here are there any i mean they're not going up so like is it possible to like buy
well i don't know actually i don't really even have any on my watch list
i mean the german defense companies went up a lot right like ryan metal
like i think you want to buy like german steel makers kind of stuff
because if there's war it always starts in europe because europe is just one of those
places just too many cultures like close together i guess yeah and they're still out easier yeah
and also it's like it's like lower stakes wars it's like proxy wars and stuff
like lots of the population is like used fighting and dying for relatively small reasons.
So, the China threatening Taiwan for how long?
I mean, it depends on your point of view.
I think the issue right now in the US is people don't really understand the history of trying to tell on that well so it's not well taught so yeah but it's just like nobody knows
what taiwan i'm starting to see people on the timeline though now that like taiwan is becoming
like more globally relevant people are making these like long explainer threads on it but like
uh it's really hit or miss like it may be correct information or it may just be like, and it's like,
I don't really know the history of Taiwan myself, but it's like, I've lived here and I've asked some
people about basic stuff. And sometimes you'll just have like totally random, like, uh, you know,
someone's trying to paint like a picture of what it is like living in Taiwan or something. You're
like, well, like, I don't know, that seems really wrong. Like I would guess that you've never been
here if I had to wager something yeah
it's definitely true that it's like not taught here like i have heard very little about taiwan
in general so i'm like general chinese civil war stuff and like china world war ii history
it's very poorly taught in the us probably because it doesn't really fit the narratives very well in the u.s so like if you
were taught about like like bostonians financing hitler it wouldn't be very great for net nation
building right you kind of like wait why do we let these banks do that so but this you know in china
is a bit similar it's like well you know first we like we let japan do this stuff and then later we
when they attacked us we decided to bomb
them you know it's like i think some of it is taught but i think you know the american support
for one regime over another is well as wonders to not this point right like they supported the shah
in iran and then got btfo'd they supported the nationalists in china then got btfo'd it's kind
of like they kind of chose the losing side each time because they underestimated nationalists in china then got btfo'd it's kind of like they kind of chose
the losing side each time because they underestimated populism in each time like and then
taiwan is basically the retreat area of of those people right the people that they retreated from
that and essentially ended up there so didn't they just kind of like fund both sides though? In Iran's case?
China, I guess.
I mean, China, not really.
I mean, so the long history of China is like the original founding father figure is this guy called Sun Yat-sen, right?
You may have heard of this name.
And he's recognized in like both China and Taiwan as the Satoshi of modern China, like the Republic China.
So that's why in the Taiwan name, you have Republic of China.
And then in China, you have People's Republic of China, right?
So it's like Bitcoin, Bitcoin cash, basically.
But they both recognize that Satoshi as the founder. So Sun Yat-sen, he was actually basically this fundraiser for stuff.
So he went overseas a lot in the US and Japan.
And he fundraised for like Qing Dynasty revolution.
And also just for like, okay, you can invest in the new form of government in China once the dynasty ends.
So he was always always very outward facing.
He didn't actually govern much at all.
But he thought of helping create that.
And then Chiang Kai-shek was his disciple.
So he was his direct number two guy.
And famously, they both married into the same family of three sisters. So like they were essentially like became family through that. And these sisters both studied at Walsley
in near Boston. And so it was a very Americanized spirit, basically. And so America was like
infatuated with Chiang Kai-shek, basically. And thought like, this is awesome. Like,
like, like China's going to be like, just like America, you know, like china's gonna be like just like america you know it's gonna be like you know the values are the same it's awesome whatever and then uh
so so that's why there was so much support for the nationalist party because they just thought well
they're like they're capitalists they're they're aligned blah blah blah and so that party ended up
losing and having to retreat to taiwan and then after they lost
uh america kind of was like well you already lost i can't support you much more than this because
like you just have all the people against you so i see but which i guess is why like we're kind of um
biased towards taiwan independence and stuff like that yeah yeah so so you know like 1953 during korean war and then later on like
there was a taiwan strait conflict where you know um the mainland was like why don't we just go in
and like take the like the final island back right like why do we let these guys like live on you
know like it's like it's like in the marvel film like why do you let your enemy like live on for
like one more day in his like? You can take him out.
Don't let him come back later and
take over. Because keep in mind that this
time, Taiwan has the seat
in the UN.
It has the seat of official China in the UN.
Mainland China was not
recognized as a state until Nixon
in 1971.
There was a risk there. It was a perceived risk. Mainland basically there was like a risk there like it was like a perceived risk
yeah so so mainland china basically was like i don't really care if you and recognizes me as a
real government or not like i i control beijing i control the capital right and i control the rest
of the country and then chen gai-shek was like just like like you know he's kind of like the
zelensky basically he's like give me more give me more troops, help me make nukes,
and I'll come back and I'll win again.
And the U.S. was like, I need to cut loss here.
Like, I don't care anymore.
But then they still, you know, did some defense where, you know,
when China was considering taking Taiwan in the mid-1950s, you know,
like the U.S. basically said, like, we'll use nukes if you do that,
something like that.
And then China was like, you know what? That doesn doesn't matter anyway let's just let them be right you
know uh you you give your enemy like a retreating like you know place to retreat to so that
essentially is history of taiwan but then so that's why taiwan is republic of china and then
china is people's republic of china so you have this like, um, um, like naming similarity. And then, so, so the KMT
is very pro reunification historically because they've always thought of themselves as part
of China, just the losing side. Right. But for at least 20 years after even losing, they thought
they could still win again. Right. Like even in the 80s, Chiang Kai-shek was like building a
nuclear weapons program. And, uh,ak was like building a nuclear weapons program
and uh america actually shut down his nuclear weapons program because like we really don't want
you to have nukes like just not good for the states you know safety of the world because by
then like china u.s became extremely close because nixon the whole nixon what nixon did when he went
was he wanted to create the sino-soviet split because china wanted the u.s wanted china on
their side
against Soviet Union.
And they said, we don't really care about Taiwan anymore.
We just want to be allies with China.
Also, all the companies that we can do manufacturing in China
wouldn't make so much money.
So then you have this Goldilocks period
of China-US relations where they thought it's awesome.
So it's a long history there.
So it's not like yeah that's
actually and and part of it's like yeah part of the important thing is that nixon as the conditions
for the opening up of china that nixon did it's the one china policy which is to recognize that
there is only one china and we can i see and part of policy is like it's a bit ambiguous but it's
like saying like it does not matter which side you think is winning.
You have to recognize that all this land is part of one country.
Right. So you have like a two government system, but you have one country.
So that's like a condition. That's like the basic condition of the opening up of China in the first place.
So I think that's why it's like, it's a part of history that like America
probably doesn't teach that well now
because it just doesn't serve the purpose.
But yeah, it's kind of like how like, yeah.
I mean, yeah, I definitely never got taught that
in school at all.
Like they didn't even touch on that.
So is it like, do we don't recognize Taiwan as a country? The US does not?
The US does not recognize. Only 12 countries in the world recognize it. It's like Palau and
Vanuatu, small islands. If US had recognized, then Nixon could not have opened up the Chinese market. China would have stayed closed,
like a North Korea type country. But was there ever a period where we recognized it?
Yeah, exactly. So up until the end of the Chinese Civil War, until Nixon,
not only was Taiwan recognized as a country, the Taiwanese government was recognized as the
official government of all of China. Right. Yeah.
You had like 20 years where Chiang Kai-shek is going to the UN as if he represents China.
It's like Craig Wright. Craig Wright is going to like court saying he represents Bitcoin.
It's like, you know, and the community might be like, well, does he actually recognize it?
Right. It's like a king in exile situation. Right.
It's like a leader in exile situation so that makes a lot of sense um but um but so the kmt actually nowadays is pro
china because they just said you know what mainland guys won and the government and the
economy is great so let's just forget about this and do business now and like is that who's like
currently in control no that's now who's not so the dbp is in control dbp is is pro is more pro
independence than kmt because the dbp is like okay it's been like many many years now and we
and we live independently we have independent government and we don't want to give in to like
you know so we want our autonomies right because in the 90s there was a deal offered by dung saoping to to taiwan which is like a
recognition of one china and then uh it was like a enshrinement of like one you know like one country
two systems you can run your own system and the generally speaking tony's did not really uh go
for that they they just thought we don't need to do this deal. So I guess if the DBP is in control,
public sentiment is generally pretty still pro.
It's more pro-separatist than if it's a KMT controlled.
But again, it's one of those things like 55-45 kind of things.
Gotcha.
So it could swing at some point.
It swung back and forth tpp has had
you know strong support recently but it's like um it's just politics it's it's democracy right so
um i mean it kind of seems like um like has the kmt been in control before then because it seems
like almost yeah yeah for many years, yeah. So how would like,
but the actual unification failed or something? Like it's voted
on? Because like, from my perspective,
like how would they, if they gained control, how would
they not just like-
So the KMT has been,
so the KMT has been in control, right?
For almost like the longest time.
So they literally, what happened was, the KMT
is Chiang Kai-shek's party.
It's the Nationalist Party. literally what happened was the kmt is chan kai-shek's party it's the nationalist party so when they lost the civil war when they're about to lose it what what
chan kai-shek did was he basically uh he forced evacuated all the japanese who were in taiwan
at the time because it came out to one was a japanese base for a long time he he kicked them
all out and then he said this is going to be my base this is going to be like my final retreating position like militarily and so there were indigenous taiwanese people and like
fujianese people in taiwan who had been there for generations earlier and he essentially said this
is now like i now rule your province basically right like i now rule your island that's why
you have this concept of like um like white andonen and bing shonen which means like the
native pre like the pre the con pre the nationalist coming and post the nationalist coming right so
essentially the the pre-nationalist coming people they had been there like under japanese rule you
know most of them spoke japanese most of them you know um were also like not a huge fan of the
nationalist coming and just ruling because it became martial law like they were just like
like literally taking control by force right um so you have that kind of a split and so that's why
like most of the kmt support is from the guys who actually just came over and then most of the tpp
support is from the people who are there pre the nationalists coming
because for the TPP
the most pro-independence argument
for the TPP is like
there's been tons of these people there
the nationalists coming
and these people were first under Taiwanese rule
and then before, I mean under Japanese rule
and before that they were like
the Qing Dynasty tributary and before that there portuguese involved but this is like just an island right
and the nationalist one wave of that but then so so they claim to like an antecedent which is okay
we were independent longer before we we've been our own island before and so that's kind of that
position it's like you know the nationalist history is less relevant here it's like you, this is just like a ruling army that came and ruled us for like 50 years,
but it doesn't matter. Taiwan's independence is separate from that concept. So that's like
the DPP argument. And that's why they'll emphasize a lot of like the Japanese influence,
because they'll say, well, you know, like, why is Hokkaido part of Japan and like Taiwan is not
like, so there's a lot of this stuff that's like
kind of um like another strong point that they'll make not strong but another point they'll make is like there was a treaty of cairo right where going into japanese surrender they're like okay what
lands belong to what if the japanese were to surrender in world war ii and the the concept
there was okay hokkaido they decided you know what no one's ruling this stuff anyways just let japan
keep it even though it was like native americans there basically before that
and then they said like in the kairo agreement it says taiwan should be independent like it should
be under its own rule um so tony it's like tbp guys will point to that and say look it's uh
you know it's in the kairo agreement but then the chinese will argue well that was ambiguous
because it was simply the conditions for japan's surrendering like just because japan
started it doesn't mean that china accepts that this is now not part but there's all a lot of
these arguments too which is like a lot of stuff the time will say too is like the new tpp guy was
saying well you know like actually russia took tons of king dynasty land in the north like all
of east iberia you used to be part of teen dynasty.
So why are you not taking that land back to like, why is Mongolia,
like Mongolia used to be part of teen dynasty too,
became this buffer state post-World War II.
But it's like, why don't you take that land first back?
If you, if you're so revanchist that you think that all this land should be
coming, like the teen dynasty should be restored basically. Right.
It's kind of interesting that with this dynamic, I'm pretty sure that
the US has separate sanction levels for Taiwan versus mainland China.
It's totally separated. They have separate tariff levels.
So that's almost like a recognition that it's like not China.
So that's almost like a recognition that it's not China.
You know what I mean?
I mean, historically, they've always done that.
I mean, the U.S. sells weapons to Taiwan.
They sell arms, right?
If they hadn't sold arms, like Chiang Kai-shek would have no support, right?
He's basically lived off American support.
It really is just like the zelensky situation
basically exactly well yeah his yeah his precursor was basically the best he basically
ico'd like republican china basically he basically raised the funds for the ting dynasty overgrowth
because wasn't ukraine basically a similar situation where it was like part of russia
before and it was like uh yeah it's part of soviet union and then khrushchev was a ukrainian native and like um there's some some funny history there
too but like like essentially the the crimea region uh actually used to be considered part
of soviet union and then when khrushchev was the leader, he said,
well, why don't you just make Crimea part of Ukraine? Because it's so close anyways. And at
that time, it didn't matter because it's all Soviet Union. It'd be like drawing from one
state to another when states don't matter. And then later when USSR disintegrated, Crimea then
is like, oh wait, Crimea is part of Ukraine now and so uh that's a little bit contentious for
that reason um but yeah i mean i mean i think the ukraine kind of i mean you can say i'm not as
up to date on like but probably should get some guests to talk about that if you want but like
it's just a funny it's a funny pattern that the us kind of has where like if there's some kind of
like land disagreement we seem to fund it or
jump on it.
I think it's just like
they use it as...
It's a general way of operation, right? It's not
necessarily even that bad or good.
It's just the way they operated.
I think US post-World War II,
they wanted to be seen as the winners
and also not as imperialist power. Even though they obviously were to some extent,, I think US post-World War II, they wanted to be seen as the winners, also not as like imperialist power.
So, even though they obviously were to some extent, so I think they prefer to play that power game in like a soft power way.
So, but, but it was just too many fronts as well, right?
So, it's too many fronts as well.
You probably start selling water filters.
This is making me think I like brush up on history pretty much like especially if we're going into like a war situation probably useful to study there's a really good book called
china and japan facing history it's by a harvard professor um it's from an american perspective
it's a really really good book um it just goes and looks at um like china and japan interactions
over 2 000 years of history um and he has this thesis that like you know it's like intense
rivalry and then periods of intense cooperation and intense rivalry and he looks at like it's a
great it's a great way to learn the history of like chi, Chiang Kai-shek, of, like, Taiwan stuff, of, like, early Buddhism stuff.
It's really good.
It's a very readable, very readable book.
I'll check it out.
Yeah.
Enzo was talking about why you wanted to do a deep dive into Japanese history yesterday.
So, kind of relevant yeah enzo enzo's thesis was basically that um
everyone has said for a long time that they think that uh japan is like an outlier in terms of
cultural norms and it's not uh it's like oh this can't be used as a predictive measure for like
anything else going on in the world because the japanese are just so weird bro and his thesis was
that uh those people are largely wrong,
and Japan was just such a leading indicator
that everyone failed to price in the Japanization of everything.
Because people said this about birth rates for a long time, right?
They were like, oh, the U.S. birth rates won't follow the pattern
of Japanese birth rates because of X, Y, Z differences.
And then that one didn't pan out but I mean like Japanese births are going up now
if anything so but a lot less due to immigration also so it's kind of um it's
kind of weird to me how like people look at Japan as this example of like
nationalism that works and like you got to keep out immigrants but japan itself is having to bring in tons of
immigration now so it's like it's like late where is like the immigration coming from
mostly india indonesia vietnam china korea i mean it's pretty massive um yeah it's getting to the
point where like i i just assume
that people are going to start getting pissed off soon i don't think they will for at least another
10 years because some of these like there's like hundreds of thousands of abandoned homes in the
countryside right there's like there there's not enough people the average age of a farmer is like
70 years old in japan so it depends really heavily on like whether the uh
whether immigrants use those though right like that is always historically the big issue is like uh
everyone's like ah our people stopped farming we need to bring in people to like farm these farms
and then you bring in people and they're like i don't want to farm the farms either
no i mean i mean they have relatively high standards of assimilation, right? Like people learn the language there.
And, you know, they intermarry very quickly.
So I think that there is not as much.
I mean, first of all, like for Chinese and Korean, it's very easy to assimilate.
You cannot tell the difference after like one year.
Like if you go to most of the big investment banks in Japan, like half the leadership are like Chinese to japanese because only the chinese japanese want to do that job like that they want to like do like high power
finance and work 100 hours a week um and then you look at a lot of the tech stuff like masayoshi's
son is actually korean japanese right like he he's of korean descent because again like the
koreans will take more like risks basically like tech stuff so dissimulate pretty easily i think
then if you go down like Vietnamese, Indonesian,
there's still a lot of assimilation as well.
There's quite a few examples of like when
like a Japanese company, like a local company,
they need to like modernize
or they need to like get someone to do the other thing
that they'll have these like apprentice systems.
And so some Indonesian kid will just go there,
become the apprentice.
And because he's like way more hardworking because he's an immigrant he will literally just like help like run that
business onward right whereas if he tried to find someone japanese to do it there's none of people
and a lot of people maybe are going to the cities and then just playing like a computer game all day
so yeah so you you do get that like um you do get that like vitality from immigration.
So they still benefit mostly from it now,
but I think there can be a big pushback later,
but I think they have standards for assimilation
that are quite high.
Similar to how America had very high standards
for assimilation as well in the past,
which also helped make immigration easier
to handle for people.
I think the problem in the US became,
you allow these enclaves, especially in Europe,
where you allow these totally different systems of behavior.
And then it became like, OK, we're
getting colonized, actually, by immigrants,
as opposed to they're coming and integrating.
Assimilating, yeah.
Yeah, like if you're playing baseball,
and you're eating apple pie, and you're
Christian or whatever, then it becomes like, OK, this is good.
So I don't know. Christian or whatever then then it becomes like okay you know this is good so but Japan is like has to do immigration now they have no other choice so do you think this will
like affect the real estate market in Japan this like similar way that it has here like it's gonna
go up due to immigration real estate market in Japan is literally ridiculous it's very hot it's one of the only hot markets in real estate wait it's actually going up don't they kind of have a
problem with like um earthquakes like yeah you're reading the buildings it's like non-viable after
a while this is this well this is the problem with a lot of like rural buildings uh i think
japan in general i i don't think they have nearly as strict of building codes as other places in the US, the West more broadly.
I don't know what we want to classify that as.
But it's very much so unregulated compared to here.
Yeah.
Japanese countryside is absurdly cheap yes you have to do more on your own but it's like
it's like a outback it's like yeah it's honestly a really like nice uh it's it's like a very novel
place you know like rural japan is one of those places where you go and you're like uh
huh like i actually have not seen this shit before
honestly i was thinking about doing like a diy like like giving like a diy course on like how
you could as an american move to japan and like run your own farm right like yeah there's there's
a guy i've seen who's done this uh and he has a video series about it um but he doesn't give you
quite like how to do it yourself but like you can you could do this we could actually do this lucas as like a project
where you just like show how you would do it um because it's actually like you don't need any
money to do this you literally just have to yeah i would totally i would totally raccoon it out in
japan uh becoming a japanese farmer for a year that'd be really funny yeah it's a lot of hard
work but it's like that's why like i wonder
about the manufacturing stuff because like you know you have these options to people and some
people are doing it but like you know it's literally free um so we are getting to like
a enough of a like an inflection point with the weird goofy self-sustainability things where like
uh you can actually literally off-grid everything now especially with Starlo.
I mean just not being always online is the biggest hack right I mean we obviously are always online
but like in Japan the thing is like the people in the suburbs they're like moving into the cities
they're moving from the countryside in the cities that they can just like eat ramen and like be in
like a small condo right and basically play games all day you know like
the being shut in basically and then the only people that want to be like in the countryside
are people like you know if you're comparing it from a person america where you can't afford the
land and then you're like holy shit i could just like be given land here as long as i take care of
it it's it's very much like the old immigration patterns where like okay like move to the u.s and
you can like move west and then just take whatever land you want right it's it much like the old immigration patterns where like, okay, like move to the U S and you can like move West and then just take whatever
land you want. Right. It's like the cowboy mentality. Like, you know,
you can bum it out in New York city or you can go to like Kansas or something
like run a farm. So, you know, I think Midwesterners would like this stuff,
but if you're like a coastal guy,
you're still just going to go to Tokyo and like rent a condo and then like
get bored of it in year so um yeah I think a lot of it is hard when you get when you look at like the sustainability
and scale of it like that's the main thing for me is like uh I've already sort of like conquered
what like the uh micro scale like self-sustainable ecosystem looks like at my first house in terms
of like okay like you have a little garden patch
and you can grow this and it's like uh okay you cover your carbs for this you can't you can't
grow this one so you go to a farm and get this one uh yeah like uh like like if i live there
long enough i eventually just start trying to scale it and becoming like a like an agricultural uh behemoth right yeah but then
this also inherently you know you get into like uh the runescape thing the optimization game where
it's like it's always just it's always just optimal to grow whatever your best roi crop in
the region is uh where it's like when i'm doing it for like one house it's like i just buy i like
i'm growing tomatoes even though they're not the most efficient thing, because like tomatoes just taste much better homegrown versus like if you buy them.
Like you actually cannot buy like good tomatoes in the US unless you go to like a farmer's market, which now largely are scams also.
Or you go find a farmer who gives you non-farmers market 6x markup prices.
But then why are they doing that in the first place the answer is usually because they're amish so now you have to go
90 minutes into some sort of amish compound to find somebody who doesn't know about price
arbitrages yeah like there's crazy arms in japan I think Shoku, he's done this thing. He bought a distressed like ski mountain near Niseko like an hour away.
He did this thing where he bought this like farm in Hokkaido that was like,
you basically get to own it after some period of time.
If you run it or something like that, you get to operate it.
So there's a lot of these like operate to own deals now.
So I think the Tokyo ARB is gone you you used to be able to like buy on
like 25 like 20x leverage like and it's non-recourse so you just put down five five percent and then
you can like buy a lot of stuff and and like buy buy stuff that's not built yet and that stuff all
went up a lot so people made like huge rois so that's's gone in Tokyo, but in Osaka, they have that now. So people are all now buying in Osaka
and like playing that catch up play.
So a really good like foreigner market
because they're just like making it really easy
and you get PR and you can get permanent residency there.
Now in like two years, it's a point based system.
So if you have skills, whatever,
that they'll give you permanent residency.
So it's not, honestly a lot of chinese people i know have moved to japan in the last three years um off so
maybe we start homesteading now that's what you do when the war the war starts you can do that feels like
you should maybe start before the war maybe yeah probably the word that they close the borders
i am kind of curious like with the war like um like if we do get a world war
like what like who would be even aligned with the u.s at this point you know what i mean
like like before there was like the two different sides but at this point it's like the u.s versus
everybody it feels like like how do you think that would like play out like what who's on whose side
i mean i think they would just take everything in the western hemisphere and no one would stop them
like who would care like china's non-interference that they wouldn't care um russia would not care that they would just take more it's like a risk game where they just
like expand out in their own like close directions i think it probably makes our relations with
like russia is probably euphoric in that case because now there's a bunch of like weird uh
like gas pipelines and like energy deals
that they had to like work around the eu in uh if it's the us and they just say yeah you can just
like spray gas with us they're like yeah we'll pay you or you can pay us to run this pipeline uh
they're probably like oh my god that's amazing so basically like us just expands and then like it just ends up being like us russia china
basically japan again and everything in africa is just like on their own obviously
i mean it doesn't matter anyways yeah yeah it's like yeah it's like china china has africa
uh u.s gets europe um russia i don't know russia gets half of europe i mean europe like iron
curtain maybe you know yeah yeah claim the other half it just seems like u.s and russia probably
like uh have a high incentive to work together on this one yeah they can just carve it up that
they can do like an agreement to the iron
curtain lines oh like that's why like the use we army really hard but they
have a massive standing army soon like Europe's not gonna go down without a
fight either so that's why like you know it's not that simple but
what's the corporate sure would be the funniest thing. Imagine right-wing Twitter discourse
over
US going to war with France.
It's like genuinely crazy.
I know, yeah.
That's a happening, right?
Like something happens.
Yeah. Like quickly. know yeah it's like that's a happening right like we went something happens yeah like quickly
like this would have not been even like in the conversation before
well it's like the whole thing with uh the hundred year floods right
hundred year wars yeah it's like we we had a long period of no wars so like there must be a lot soon
i guess unless we just stop wars but humans are good at wars we like wars
hmm does make you wonder if that's just like how they uh restart the ponzi every time
like once it gets too wrecked,
it's just sort of intentional.
I don't know.
I mean,
did anyone understand the economy for the last 30 years?
Was it real?
I don't know.
People on the internet said it was fake. And then they just did all this and then it went away so maybe it was fake like maybe it's only real if you believe in the economy
and then if you don't believe in the economy it's not real anymore
yeah real is just always such a loaded term to like argue about
i wouldn't know you about it.
Just like is what it is.
He's probably sitting here like I'm pretty sure the economy is real.
It does get to the point where you have like financed uh zero percent interest payments
for long enough but you start thinking like something about this isn't real right
yeah i mean if you have like fiat collapse of major economies you haven't really had that before
in level and at least like since world war ii right like deutsche mark type stuff
so if you got that happening then the economy quickly becomes not real because you'd be like
a dollar like you have a lot of dollars and you realize wait but these aren't worth much
inflation super high so then you like rush to buy like stuff and you're like wait this stuff
also sucks and you have capital control it gets locked right that's the argentino playbook i mean us talking about like uh the
possibility of global war and war gaming it out on stream might also just be like a huge giga top
sign and then everything just stops doing anything tomorrow right like historically i mean that would be great honestly but i mean if you got capital
controls to such an extent so in argentina like i knew a guy there who the way he tried to get
money out he basically started to like fly planes in like he had people fly planes and then he would
try to buy the plane with cash and then fly it out so like he would just basically like
using that as a way to get pesos into like hard money
but it's like
people are going to have to be really creative
I do think capital control
is coming in the US
I've seen a few tweets about it
just like you can't get the money out of
the US, you can't wire it out
like most countries have
stable coins
stable coins yeah stable coins
but like hard assets you know what i'm saying like yeah
i guess this was like the bitcoin thing right like you wanted to spend your bitcoin and it was like
well okay like i need my bitcoin for cash and I don't want to make a Spain run.
Yeah.
So now we're like, I'm going to go, I'm going to go find a guy who accepts cryptocurrency for cars on Facebook marketplace. And then.
In a true World War II scenario, like the US government will seize the Bitcoin in the Bitcoin ETFs, right?
Like they did with gold.
Is that like, is that bearish or bullish?
It's very bullish if you don't have your Bitcoin in an ETF.
Yeah.
Well, yes and no.
And then the government may just dump this Bitcoin to pay for armies and stuff.
So yes and no.
Long-term very bullish.
Capital controls also sort of seems bullish, Bc but also like it kills all of the
off like on ramps so that's it'll kill the on ramps yeah it'll kill the honor arms hard to reason about
as well very hard to reason about it's definitely easier to get money out of the out of crypto than
into crypto yeah that's definitely true well i don't
know why do you say that exactly like i always buy something on facebook marketplace
i mean like i was agreeing at first because like there's like aca limit but then i realized i can
just wire like as much as I want into Coinbase
or whatever.
It seems pretty much the same either way.
I just wire out or wire in.
Or you mean in a situation where there's capital controls and the on-ramps are gone?
Yeah.
Okay. Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
Yeah, that's, I guess you're definitely better off having it outside of the US in that case,
like in BTC.
I guess this is also assuming that BTC isn't a CIA project to begin with and they're just
sitting on a million of Satoshi's Bitcoin.
Yeah.
Bitcoin is the ultimate honeypot, baby.
When all the money is in the Bitcoin ETF, then they say, okay, thank you.
Capital gains tax achieved well tags
we are kind of getting some relative strength again guys
great sign
oh yeah coins up coins barring some
i'm just kind of looking at bitcoin compared to like smp
yeah
this was sort of rough ETH just like crushing the 1500 level was really rough I think
yeah didn't even like bounce really it had like yeah it's so tough for it to bounce now because
people like it's uh as it goes down you get d5 liquidations each time right so you have this like non-stop like cascading yeah
because we're also in the range now we're just like nobody expected it to go
at this point in like any cycle really yeah
so we're now down where like there's actually a bunch of like large liquid capital that has liquidations here yeah and now is like the worst time to be like
covering your long that's going the wrong way yeah pretty cooked
and i think everyone who's wanted to buy itAT has already bought it, and everyone who hasn't
bought EAT doesn't want to buy it because they actually think it's Nokia or Blackberry
or Linux.
There's actually like five analogies you can give all of which are pretty good.
The year of the Linux desktop. I don't know if I like the Linux desktop.
I don't know if I like the Linux comparison.
I guess maybe it does make sense because Linux is used a ton, but it doesn't make any money.
Yeah.
The Ethereum Foundation is the open source guys.
Red Hat is consensus, which can't make money but is early um yeah i don't know
we're gradually running out of things to bullpost though which means that uh
we are either nearing full economic collapse or a reversal right shove into like five
i wonder how viewers feel when they see super cycle real they click in and it's like
we're just like talking about how everything is
i i i do think now is a good level to buy bitcoin in the next you know from from a few days ago to
like the next two three weeks i think you'll be up on those most likely but um
because i don't think it's a given that like if stocks nuke further bitcoin needs to go to like
20k or something i don't think that's a given if sailor does get does have to sell, then we're all cooked.
Yeah, that's super bearish.
But the thing is, by 2027, and it's kicking the can down, but what happens if you actually
get to 2027 and 2028, right?
But then you have to do it.
Yeah, he's just, oh, he has to start selling?
Well, he has to pay interest.
He has to pay dollars.
So then people will be watching the Sailor T-Wops.
I guess like, yeah, he's making a gamble
that it's going to be like up a ton
by the time he has to start paying back the interest.
Yeah.
And then people who are buying his thing,
they also are making that gamble with him, right?
They're saying saying you know
maybe i manage other people's money and i think that this is the best risk adjusted play i mean
and they've been right they've been rewarded for it so you know
it has some similarities ever grand china the property stock which was like
like people were saying to short it very very early and then just gigamoon and it became like a cult and they built all this like crazy
projects everywhere um the dude for a while became like one of the richest people in the world
um but it's like it's built on this assumption that people will buy the properties that are
getting built um so here it's like you know he's making the assumption that there's like
a big lane demand for bitcoin he's essentially front running it through this project right he's
buying so much of it early um and using it as this like like this vehicle so it's a really smart play
if like this is the main instrument um that people use to access bitcoin if you're in fixed income
markets you can buy his bonds.
Right now, Bitcoin goes up a lot, you make more money.
Like he invented that.
It's pretty crazy.
It's almost like if you were to buy a property, but Bitcoin went up, you'd somehow make more
money.
Like if someone invented that, that would also be a really cool property to sell.
Right.
So, but no one's figured that out, but he managed to figure it out for fixed income and equities um it's almost feels a lot like when they were like repackaging uh
bad yes that's what i was gonna say it's really smart i mean smartness is a non-duality right
the 3ac is also really smart until it's really dumb so it's like one of those things
like you know when i see sailor on the cover of forbes as like financial alchemist
like that that should give
me a little bit of a shiver of my spine like that's yeah definitely yeah like alchemy doesn't
the the alchemist didn't manage to turn this stuff into gold in the end so
yeah that's true i wonder if they like like chose that word intentionally or something
must like for it's like that thing they always tell you what's about to happen I wonder if they chose that word intentionally or something.
It's like that thing they always tell you what's about to happen.
Yeah.
Like the Illuminati or whatever.
Forbes covers are pretty good. The Illuminati were trying to tell you to sell.
The Illuminati.
I had a friend who saw that when he saw that cover because he's like,
this just can't end well.
It has generally been like a giga top indicator
the forbes crypto covers yeah like it wasn't great with the sbf thing either was it no
well you guys want to call it's been like three hours yeah let's call it yeah i'm
cool all right take care later guys godspeed guys
