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supercycle (real)
Recorded: April 9, 2025 Duration: 3:09:32Space Recording
Full Transcription
what's up guys
gmgm welcome
fuck you stole my welcome
i have no line now my indian scammer line
so the markets markets looking good 10-year yields going up stocks going down bonds and
stocks going down it's good um gold going down even gold going down yeah yeah eeth is at 1400 bro this is such a diabolical chart man like it just makes me laugh at this point
crazy i love how we start almost every stream just shitting on eeth real quick and then
we just like got that out of the fucking system well like eth is down more than ripple
eth is down like five times more than tron yeah i know it's like you if you just follow tiktok
advice you would have bought doge and xrp or whatever they're at shilling at least xrp
and you would have made a fucking killing compared to anyone who's bullish on it
yeah it would be a funny bit delisted
versus there's only been 14 days in the last 15 years where vix curve was back we're dated by 30 points i've seen his tweet um last time bitcoin prices this backward dated was before the COVID dump, Bitcoin from 10K to under 5K.
So...
Savvy says tomorrow is the floor
just like a general floor for all assets or i don't know
how is saffppy making these predictions yeah i'm feeling really dumb about cutting a lot of uh
a lot of my eath shorts around here sappy is actually the um the chain link guy from the future
i mean you saw andrew king try to short on hyper liquid and got liquidated on shorting eat
maybe people were like how do you manage to get liquidated being short ETH, right?
Because it just went up enough to liquidate him and then it went back down again.
Like it went to 1580.
Yeah, it's almost like they did it for the meme or something.
Did it for the meme and then they continued to go down.
Like it has actually retraced the full cycle's price action at this point. Like, remember a week ago when I was saying I just have this feeling that ETH goes back to my like rebuys?
And now we're like actually $300 away from when I reentered ETH.
Yeah.
It's just very quick.
Triple digits just seems like pretty likely at this point i think yeah
what seems likely like three digit eath
I remember when it was like 2100,
the key was like, he's going to rebuy at 888, basically.
That was a pretty good call.
The video chart looks scary.
Yeah.
I mean, look, China doesn't give a fuck about equities, honestly. Right. So I think think about how intense their COVID reaction was like, basically, everyone was locked up for two years. Right in major cities. So like tons of entire industries went to zero during that. And so I feel like, you know, in in a in the austerity war there's very it's very hard to bet on like china blinking like
i see chama tweeting that china's in a blink but it's just it's very very difficult to see
how that plays out because it's it's like it gives the China excuse to sell to treasuries. It gives them an excuse to divest, which they haven't had before, right?
I think you made an interesting point in like the, whatever, the broadcast room before we started of America essentially taking the villain role at this point and China not being it anymore compared to what it used to be even just a few months ago.
I'm seeing that dynamic heavily.
I see regarding the China
tariffs that the US is imposing,
etc., the entire
feeling
around it has shifted to, okay, well,
America's a dickhead at this point.
Yeah.
Oh, shit.
These guys see World Liberty 5 might be selling
you.
That's really hilarious it's like a 65 negative scalp in two months
they gotta be insiders man
what real insiders trade like that's crazy
what real insiders trade like that's crazy
it's kind of impressive they have like a bunch of bitcoin as well yeah i don't know if that's like
significant cell pressure at this point or when they have like it's still many many that have
that they that they have i think oh okay if i remember correctly
it's just like another one of those things where people just attributed it directly to
the trumps and it was actually just whoever they hired to run their crypto project yeah so this looks funny on the log chart
yeah very funny i mean if you look at log chart it's got more to fall it's gonna go to like 0.003
word think he said he was rebuying 888 in dollars so depends what you think bitcoin will be
So depends what you think Bitcoin will be.
There's no levels below here, it feels like.
Below O2.
Yeah, if it breaks this, it's...
Like that Bitfinex guy who's bought so much at VDC,
like imagine if that guy gets liquidated.
Then you're looking at like O1 WIC.
Oof.
So market's probably hard mode for investors here, huh?
Yeah.
I think like people who have like the long Bitcoin dominance positions that they're just
going to keep holding it.
Cause they're just like, no one can squeeze this.
How is this going to squeeze higher in what world does Bitcoin get outperformed by alts?
Right on the way down.
There's no way on the way up.
Probably also no way.
So I think there's just been on the way up probably also no way
so i think there's just been like this really good thesis driven trade that people have had
um yeah this was one that i very uh ardently supported and then like carried out with
moderate size and i'm now just sitting here like, God damn it, Lucas.
Like, why do you never fucking all in on like your good ideas? Like you could have, you could
have actually retired off of this one thing for like 10 generations. Like you could have retired
your entire family. You could have retired like random people that you just met like three months
ago off of just like, and I literally came here for hours a day and talked
about how i thought bitcoin dominance was like this is it this is the make it play and then i just
it's like ah yeah let's pun something to allocate five percent
i also like um we haven't really gotten any like super satisfying giga nukes either which is kind
of frustrating like it's just like slow bleed it's still like today was that was a giga nuke man
like it's straight up yeah like today to yesterday like that is actually just another
straight i mean if you look at the e chart like it is filled with giga death nukes like there's
tons of them actually but it's like five percent at a time or something just like no
look at that one massive candle bro that was literally like the biggest candle uh that we've
had like all cycle really like a 20 yeah there was like a 15 but i mean like back in the day we used to get like 30% I'm talking about like 2018 style like
even like like some of the bigger alts aren't making like you know they seems like they can
only move like about 15 or 20 percent max and then they'll kind of like it's just weird
I think at a certain point when an asset has been around for long enough, there's so many sellers who just don't care anymore.
And it's just, they're just floating around.
Like there's many Bitcoin holders who are just off in the mountains.
They're hiking somewhere in Tibet.
Eventually they will realize like, oh my God, Bitcoin's so down, is something happening?
But like, you know, it takes everyone a while to
get tipped back in what's going on for sure maybe i made that up i don't know no you're probably right
like when bitcoin was new,
all the holders are literally there at their screens looking at them.
But now it's like, God knows, man.
Yeah, people are like
checked out.
And it's too liquid also.
That was the other thing.
At the beginning, there was
some guy who has enough of supply
that he can just...
All the liquidity.
No. I think some guy who has enough of supply that he can just pull all the liquidity no
i think this is like with a lot of new launches still not even here yet right like monad
mega eth um they may actually just delay those tgs for like another year um yeah i wouldn't be surprised at all like what choice do they have really like bear is down
60 in the week um more it's done 70 in like a week i hope like meggy at least if they're
going to delay their tg they should make their nfts tradable because i don't want to pay attention
to that for another year. I'm not going to lie.
There would never be a scenario where the bones of you gets locked up.
Yeah, I agree.
I think restaking
staking, restaking ABS,
that was meant to be
the lock drop style catalyst.
The demand never just materialized.
This is going to be true a little bit because the asset
that you're creating from the lock drop doesn't itself have enough value right because the avs
says you need ultimately people to buy the underlying uh like to build the underlying
thing it's just like a lot of infra built with no app there in mind is there anybody who restates that does not feel like they
were just massively scammed by themselves or like who did any of the staking i think i like
i can't i can't even get mad at other people because like i really did this to myself
i mean i can maybe blame mrw for like the eigenlayer thing but like
if we're being honest it was just me like it was all on me if i think about the value proposition
of me just locking up tons of liquidity so somebody can raise on high tvl it's like it's
actually zero it's like negative zero it's actually like i was a morally bad actor for
allowing them to do this so So I deserve what happened.
I wasn't upset about Blast, but I feel like I was one of the only ones
because I think I got lucky on a jackpot.
It was a coin that had 3% or 4% of the supply spread out in different wallets.
I think I locked up 32 ETH, and I got almost two two bitcoin value worth of airdrop but uh a lot of people i mean that seemed like
everyone was just pissed about that one yeah eigenlayer was i was mostly mad because like
the dude made us bridge all like manually like we all had to bridge our own to his
fucking chain from his multi-sig and so like all like 16 of my wallets i needed to spend like 500
gas fees the gas fees was like out of control for bridging and then when i wanted to bridge
off the chain it's like another like you know it was like there was that time when i came in just
seething because i was like i i seriously have to pay like six and a half k to bridge off a blast oh yeah because like the
bad bridge liquidity well i found some way with like eeth or something that was pretty good but
i think people figured it out pretty quick because it got the spread blew out again but I mean realistically you could have just waited I guess yeah yeah I could
have but then it's like the value proposition of okay just wait but now
you're holding each I am for a week you know yeah yeah well there was rap
Bitcoin on the chain actually or there's there was but like you could you could only bridge eth off right
no you can bridge wbtc back oh my god okay well i'm retarded
i just what i did is i uh just i didn't dump it on chain i deposited all the blast into buy bit
and i sold there although price was a little lower i could have gotten a little more like dollar value out if i dumped it on chain but uh what are you gonna do i mean thinking back blast
wasn't even that bad because everything that came out here was even worse uh yeah it was bad because
people had such high expectations for it uh acme and honestly did really good in terms of like uh
doing the thing and then running away before
anyone remembered i imagine he probably made a decent amount because i'm sure they were taking
like a percentage of the staking yield from all the locked up uh eth yeah
i'm still running an eigenlayer operator for like no reason i don't even know why i still have that
up there's like people have like i think it's like 500 ETH delegated to my operator or something.
Who are these people that are still just staked in Eigenlayer?
I don't think I'm getting any reward at all for that.
One time, I think my operator address got a random $200 of ETH.
But other than that, it's like, i'm just doing this for absolutely zero reason
there's not much info cost right no it's like cheap yeah it's not a big deal but i'm more the
only reason i'm still running is because i feel bad like because there's people actually actively
delegated to it you know it's better to shut that down but uh but yeah it doesn't it barely
costs anything if it were to shut down people would get slashed right or no i don't think there's um no they would just stop gaining the rewards i'm
actually not even certain that's true i'm at one point they hadn't even implemented that to where
even if the operator was down that they were still getting but they may have i mean the software
hasn't been upgraded in like almost a year like there's like one software upgrade i had to do for the operator node and then is eigenlayer just like outright a scam i mean their their um da
layer works but it's just like nobody there's no demand for a da layer like even like eth blob
space isn't full yeah do you think that like celestia thesis is one of the other reasons why ETH's been underperform?
Because you can't really actually have value accrual to a DA layer because you can just
always have other DA layers that are cheaper?
I don't know if it's directly because of Celestia, but I just think just in general, having your main goal to be a DA layer was a bad move.
I think that's why.
Just building the wrong product.
I definitely made money farming Eigenlayer and farming Blast, but if you think about how much more I would have made just market buying
soul with that money instead of leaving it locked up, definitely way worse.
Huge opportunity cost.
I wonder if Dawn is still long this
which dawn uh kryptonium do you guys think defy will ever find like proper product market fit like people expected
previous cycle because this cycle it hasn't happened i don't think it's gonna be that easy because a lot of the defy use case
of stuff that's currently built with like smart contracts is like as Vitalik said it's
Oros borrows like you're using the defy to long the native asset of the chain so if you're an
outsider you don't need to long the native asset of the chain so you don't need to use the defy
but you don't need to use maker if you don't like if you don't want to own E chain so you don't need to use the d5 but you don't need to use maker
uh if you don't like if you don't want to own eat right you don't need to use ava if you don't want to like borrow against a liquid oh sorry like uh uh risky crypto so yeah it's gotta be like you
need like holding your use cases like stablecoin based d5 i think will come and there'll be some
cool stuff you can do. But basically the product
set has to almost resemble like real world product sets. And then you have some efficiencies on top
of it. It's got to be more incremental on what's happening in the real world as opposed to like,
you know, we're going to have these Ponzi farms. We're going to have these like,
you know, ways to get leverage. Like even Athena, right? Again, it it's like a it's a good product but it also depends on people
uh wanting to buy coins on leverage right like everything is uh downstream of that so
and i think like it has found product market fit there's billions of dollars in it it's just the
tam is not as big as people thought yeah like do you really want trillions of dollars in the world to be, like, leveraged long on-chain?
You probably don't want that, right?
Like, it's not...
Especially with, like, an irreversible smart contract that can get hacked, you know?
Yeah.
Like, North Korea might actually just hack, like, the whole, like, half the world's money.
And then North Korea buys all the nukes.
So, yeah. I think that's the
cap that I think DeFi ran into.
Also just innovation cap.
I think because
if you look at the revenues...
Oh, we're having an earthquake right now.
I was wondering why we were shaking so much.
Oh, damn.
How big is it?
My camera's moving a little. I don't know yeah i saw that yeah i just got a presidential earthquake alert that's pretty based yeah i'm in a part of the building
that's definitely like the scariest part to be in during an earthquake because like if i move
too much and that window breaks i'm just fucking shoo straight out the type is super resistant to earthquakes i i think that particular building
i think it can resist like a 9.0 earthquake
anything over that though you're cooked over 9.0 is hard but like like Fukushima was like, what, 8.5?
Let me check.
Yeah, something like that, I think.
Maybe higher.
Wow.
I've never actually
felt an earthquake in my life.
Yeah, that was the first time I felt an earthquake in a long time.
Yeah.
Oh, it was 9.1,
the Fukushima earthquake
in 2011. Yeah. So1, the Fukushima earthquake in 2011.
Yeah, so you get another Fukushima.
It could be cooked.
Lucas looks kind of shocked.
He's wondering.
What are the odds? I have a friend who's like, he's only gonna buy markets again when sui is under a dollar.
That's his benchmark.
Only another 50% drop, that's not too bad. On sui is under a dollar that's his benchmark so only another 50 drop that's not too bad on sui itself yeah but sui is quite a strong asset overall like throughout this market
no yeah it definitely is so i don't even think that's like let me see what that looks like
sui used g.pe that's like let me see what that looks like so we used it kind of seems almost similar to like
the soul drawdown it's pretty close it's pretty close yeah 65 off the top and it kind of wait
let me compare slightly more than soul from the top i think the chart still looks better though
structurally yeah it does it does although like if you look at the price of the i mean
like sue is 50 cents august 2024
yeah you mean like like increase wise overall yeah it's still up 4x from August 2024.
If you think that alts are going to underperform for some period,
I mean, it stands to reason you might have a full drawdown of some of this stuff.
XRP, you could argue, maybe unlikely to have a full drawdown
because it's getting so much
regulatory approval now uh plus like they probably just own the majority of the float yeah yeah sweet
the question is like obviously did a huge run on the way up what kind of things do they do to
achieve that like is there like a hidden unlock coming from that supply or something right
hit unlock coming from that supply or something right
so i don't know like i saw walrus i mean this war stuff is not really
i mean it's like filecoin ensuite guys like i don't know did you see the uh privacy stuff
that helios just dropped for Solana? No.
It's pretty cool. Private tokens.
Oh, interesting.
It's like ZK privacy for tokens on Sol.
What do you think you can use it for, applications-wise?
I mean, it's just like confidential transfers, right?
So basically similar to how Aztec works, I guess.
It's just like you could basically have a privacy coin running on soul like i imagine you could do it with like a wrapped solana um even so just like private solana transfers it's pretty bullish yeah yeah it is it's
we were talking about like maybe eath adding this uh with an eip and how that would be bullish but
now like it's not already has it anyway they can just get beat yeah exactly they're just getting
beat on everything yeah because before they had um
private balances only but the transfers were still not really like shielded so now it's
like everything like the transfer the balance um it's all just like encrypted
i think like i remember i wrote this post i think I spoke quite long about it with Luke as well.
At least we texted about it.
But just kind of like the transfer of like the cycle,
previous cycle kind of being this L1 DeFi race.
And a large proportion of it from my experience was like what L1 is kind of
the L1 to build upon.
And then Seoul just like beat like every other L1 by a long shot in terms of actual adoption.
And now you see what Sayuki is saying.
It's just winning in terms of people building sooner on there than they're building on ETH as well.
Yeah, I think everyone kind of got hung up on picking the winning L1.
But in reality, it's just like where are the apps getting
built that the users are going to use.
Is it easier or harder to make apps on, like is making this privacy mumbo jumbo on Solana
easier or harder than it would have been on ETH?
I actually, well, I think for this thing specifically, because it's like zero knowledge
stuff, it's actually, for my understanding, it's actually a little easier on Sol because
the logic and like the state are completely separated on Sol because of how accounts work
and programs work.
Whereas with Ethereum kind of all mash together. So
it makes some things with ZK easier. I don't know, I'm not like a ZK wizard, but that's
my understanding. But it just really depends. I would say the only reason why ETH is easier
is because it just has a more mature developer
ecosystem where people have been building tools for 10 years now to make writing smart
contracts easier.
So it's something that will catch up.
You know what I mean? I guess we're like bouncing now.
Yeah, I was going to say, we have one green ticker on the panel here.
Hype.
Yeah, I'm not like, that's why I've been so excited.
I'm looking at this short of mine and it's just fully recovered.
I'm not having a fucking jolly time right now how's you you said you closed your long head
or something yes i'm like live trading the most terrible trading experience i've had
like all day like literally when we were in the like the pre-room for the stream i was like yeah
honestly really good day i've been trading very well and as I hop on stream I just make every wrong decision a trader could possibly make
just immediately like 20 minutes yeah like how is this even possible
this yeah hype's up a lot what the hell seven percent yeah
hype being up a lot to me is like actually giga bullish for crypto overall.
Why so?
Just like the hot new thing.
It's a better look to have like one actual product running.
Yeah, that's true.
I agree with that.
It's a good product like if you have if you have actual
good products getting released and then like the market sells off and they get no bids and
everything goes to zero uh it's just sort of like a really hard investment thesis to make to anyone
thesis to make to anyone like as an industry overall right yeah
like as an industry overall right yeah
i actually quite enjoy the hyper liquid trading experience as well
like i've tested it out a bit yeah it's a good exchange definitely good
if you're not like trading with gigantic size and want to hide your positions or something,
I don't see why you wouldn't use it.
I still always type in the URL wrong when I go there.
I sometimes do hyperliquid.com on accident.
Try to do bookmarks.
I always do like...
I never go to the app, first of all, but I always do like hyperliquid.net or uh dot net it's a weird one
yeah it just feels dot netty to me for some reason but it's strange that a lot of these like
protocols don't really give a about their domain name stuff like that like the same thing with
photon like i swear to god photons like url their url is cooked it's like
yeah it's like awful tiny astro dot soul dash photon dot it's really i'm not even kidding
i've thought the same thing yeah like why don't they just like but i think it's because they
support multiple networks yeah it is weird that they don't have like photon dots it's photon-soul.tinyastro.io
i think that's why like women whenever people talk about like really optimizing the url
i just wondered this cycle if it matters at all like i don't i don't think so i think people once
they have it they bookmark it or they just know like they just type in photon enter right and
it auto goes to photon or whatever your platform is.
I think in the case of Photon, it's like, because you use it so frequently, you have to have it bookmarked anyway.
Like it's a speed tool.
Like they were uniquely able to get away with that because of what their product is.
But like if you're a product that people use maybe two or three times a week, I think it's
very different, right?
Whereas like if you're in the trenches, it's like you have to have Photon
bookmarked. I think it's some kind of self-selection thing where if you choose
a really bad URL, it almost is like you're putting out the
weighted vest before you do pull-ups. It's like, I'm proving that my product is so good
you'll find it anyways. Whereas if you spend
all the time doing doing the url
and it's like or like the branding in the url
i mean that is a little bit of an insane thing for us to say though
no i think i think that i don't know what you guys do when you're typing urls but i just type I mean, that is a little bit of an insane thing for us to say, though.
No, I think that... I don't know what you guys do when you type in URLs,
but I just type in, like, the first few letters,
like, the first letter or two,
and it automatically goes to, like, whatever I'm looking at.
Like, I don't type out aux.fun.
I just type out O and enter, and it just goes to aux.fun.
I pretty much have everything just in bookmarks,
like, different folders of bookmarks particularly gary like sketched out about
navigating to the wrong place yeah that's the other reason that i actually like i honestly have
like i i have faded the photon url multiple times because I thought it was a fucking phishing
link.
It looks like a phishing link every time.
Yeah, like tiny astro.
Yeah, I'm like, dude, wait, did I click the right one?
And then eventually I go and check in my telegram.
Did I log in right?
I think there's a way where the harder the the harder url makes you feel like
you're like smart smart money as well like smart retail like this is a tool that like is not for
normies you know i'm accessing like high-end tooling here yeah i'm using i'm using the command
line interface to trade perpetual literal ass coins yeah i think that's half of it half the reason
it's the same with um twitter usernames like a lot of people
essentially like i know i spoke to hyper liquid because um spoke to hyper liquid guys because
i was able to get at hyper liquid and i was like hey do you guys want a hyper liquid because
currently you have at hyper liquid x and they were like yeah we don't really give a fuck to be honest
yeah that's chad
people really don't like when people hit them up asking to buy Twitter usernames.
I know this because every time someone messages me asking if I want to buy the
at Lucas account, I'm just like, I just feel this totally irrational desire to like assault them
welling up within me. I't even know i can't even like
rationally explain it because it's like a uh but like the idea that uh there's some guy out there
who's going and attempting to just like front run a bunch of things that i might care about because
he thinks that his jewish speculation is going to beat my Jewish speculation is like
insulting on the face of it.
It's like,
I would use the most dog shit handle of all time before I give you a
single cent for a name.
Yeah.
It's like a squat,
like basically squatting,
right?
Like has a very negative connotation.
Like get the fuck out of my house,
dude.
Like I,
I will be like,
uh, Lucas Feliciano Lopez the 32nd before I pay you a single dime.
Okay, just to clarify, I didn't have the ad, so I didn't like front run buy it.
I was just like, hey, I can help you get it.
I'm specifically referring to Yawa Queen and his fucking scumbag tactics of selling, swatting URLs, handles.
Disgusting rodent of a person.
I can confirm this is exactly what I did.
This is exactly what Lucas thinks about me.
He actually DMs me every day and he just goes, you scumbag.
I just DM him the the emoji every 30 minutes
he just schedules it ahead of time just to make sure i see it
yeah i've started sending it to his parents too
let's see what the boys are doing on the feed today
they're mainly showingilling us SPX,
it's Protos.
It's the usual.
Oh, you mean the DGEN feed?
Yeah.
This is pretty impressive.
Every time I open the AUX DGEN feed,
it's just like short, short, short, short, short, short short short short short short short no we got some longs here we got longs in bitcoin and tick coin
tickle is holding up like very well
for like coin has created a head and shoulders
and shoulders well that that that wick kind of ruins that theory though no yeah i don't know
i think we're at the market cycle where i'm gonna say this is a head and shoulders
we're at the point in the market where
well how how did that wick close on the four hour no it's a head and shoulders
lucas draw your fractal the far coin
the up only far coin tech i don't know how it's going
tech i don't know how it's going
well like slowly not even far from
ratchet Hi.
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please rest assured has anyone ever live streamed an earthquake like a big one we just did this is
5.5 i mean come on it's like it was only a 5.5 isn't it like exponential yeah yeah like each
one up is like 10 times more roughly so like seven to eight is like a 10 times bigger
so that was a 5.5 so so to get to a nine we're at what like a 2.36 times 10 to the third
essentially how bad did it feel like describe the describe the feeling did you not i mean it
was mostly just like wow it okay you know you know when you're in like, uh, like a shittily constructed
house or apartment and it's like really windy. Like I had this, I had this in my university dorm.
Uh, I was like on the top floor of the dorm and we would get like big winds and you could feel
the building swaying some, it felt like that. But then I thought about it for a while and I was
like, wait, like this building is not like made of fucking like uh plaster and like pine boards uh how the fuck is it swaying right now uh and then
i got the earthquake warning well that's standard tech right it allows it to to uh wiggle a bit
yeah it's supposed it's supposed to wiggle a little bit but it's like i've been in a lot of
high winds in this building and i have not experienced it swaying along with the winds right
like is it like a concrete structure no this building is like a spaceship it's uh
no that's a high tech so do i building docks or am i gonna like get us killed i think you're already building we're already building docs before but yeah it's like one of the nice office buildings
in time 100 like there's a hell of pictures from the office but um but you know if i look at magnitude of uh earthquakes
in taiwan historically it's usually around six to eight like there's only been one above eight
in the last 200 years so the odds of a nine are really low i mean yeah but we've also been summoning like the world
historic anomalies of natural disasters into our lives somehow recently right like i the the place
that i grew up in was uh we we got like a hundred year flood and everyone's like oh thank god we got
that out of the way that's like that was really awful it really destroyed a lot of property and
then like two years later we got like a 500 year flood and then we got like a 200 year flood like in another
like two or three years and uh it was like ha i guess all of this like how many hundreds of years
between floods shit is just like our shitty estimation that doesn't really mean anything
because at any given moment if the likelihood of floods increases like a hundred or a thousand
x your estimations are sort of wrong right it's also just like the gambler's fallacy like uh
yeah yeah having one doesn't necessarily there's no way i could lose 909 099 times in a row right
yeah that would be statistically super improbable, right?
The earthquake fallacy.
Back-to-back earthquakes.
I do think earthquakes, though,
it's less likely to have one after you've just had one,
based on the way tectonic plates move.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Because you've got to build up all the... Like, relieves the pressure.
No, yeah.
Like, I mean, rain and floods and stuff,
that's actually totally different because
there's not really like a uh like the same pressure thing but like the plates gotta like
flex on each other so they can build up the snapping force right yeah so i think you're safe
now don't worry about it now that it's released its tension actually it's good to have casual
earthquakes every now and then it's like uh
there's a lot of smaller ones and one big one yeah yeah yeah no it like this can be compared
in a lot of ways to doing like nofap or something like that like if you have someone that does nofap
yeah well they build up all of that that energy that tension and then one day day they're like robbing someone.
They're like, oh my God, his skin's so smooth.
No, I don't know, actually.
I hope none of us know.
I'm like remembering this conversation from somewhere,
but I can't remember where.
The robbing thing.
It's just Lucas's favorite example.
He said it plenty of times.
I see.
It happened to him before.
You know what's really interesting though?
Throughout this whole time, we've been streaming the total collapse of all markets.
We're somehow gaining viewers.
Nice.
Like we're regularly closing these things after like three hours now with over 10k viewers,
which is actually hilarious because that's like, that puts us in the top like 99.8th percentile of like all people on Twitch. And we're not doing it on Twitch.
We're streaming to Twitter, which is like, this is not a streaming platform.
This is where people go to read short, like, you know, they go to read a two sentence like fart joke or something.
So we are, we are crushing the worst arbitrage of all time like imagine if
we were to do the right thing imagine if we were to just upload videos to youtube or twitch
uh instead of like insisting on using like a printer to like make coffee or something like
we're totally misusing the platform yeah i think maybe because we should put the next one on because we we can go
live on youtube the only issue is that uh like i think we're gonna have to not we just have to read
the youtube terms of service uh yeah like censor ourselves a little bit yeah i think we just can't say the f words
okay look we have some good we have stream regular this is true we literally have stream
chat regulars yeah you know what we should do also so like i like ox it's a fun thing uh but the
like one of the flaws with ox has always been, I don't think that we have
a water filter. What do you mean by that? It's something that I've always dreamed of selling.
Ever since I first got my job, I spent most days thinking like...
Like, uh, you just want to sell water filters?
You just want to sell water filters?
Yeah.
I was like, I don't want to, I fuck, I don't want to build this.
Like I industry is cool.
Machines are cool, but like, this isn't what the people need.
Right?
Like they don't need, like, they don't need a trencher.
They don't need a pipeline drill.
They don't even really need cranes anymore.
Right?
Like someone, someone built the pyramids likely without any cranes at all.
But what we do need is water filters.
We need some way to take the estrogenic compounds out of the water.
They're very small molecules.
Conventional carbon filters don't work.
Osmosis membranes often don't even work.
Is that real?
Yeah.
No, there's a lot of shit in water now that it's like you just you just get
you cannot avoid it what if i like five bottles and that's this is the thing like it's actually
like you need water like you cannot get around many many of these products it's like i'm selling
you something that actually uh it doesn't matter right like you know like i oh you well you need
the air pods that have the noise
canceling so that you can ignore your like mom better or something like, uh, you don't need
that. Right. You could just talk to your mom, but, but you actually need to drink.
Like everybody needs to drink. And theoretically you also need to wash yourself. There's some
mumbo jumbo about like the majority of the way you get like toxins from water actually being just showering or bathing every day. I don't know if
that's true or not. I, I, I honestly, I believe that every person has like a very individual level
at which they absorb things through their skin. Uh, so maybe, maybe it matters. Uh, maybe it doesn't, but like you probably should have like a full
house system, right? So what, what kind of a full house is like, if reverse osmosis doesn't work,
then what, what do you get? Well, this is the problem is every existing water filter technology
has some like giga downside, right? Like reverse osmosis, it gets out a lot of stuff that you
can't through like particulate filtration, but it has the enormous downside of now you're removing
like most of the electrolytes and minerals also. So you have to remineralize it, but you're also
now remineralize. Like how do you remineralize water, right? Like you're just going to take
like a mineral pack and say like, oh yeah, I'm sure this shit's good enough. Right? Like the, the way that water gains minerals
is by like flowing over rocks and like an Alaskan stream or something. And now you're going to take
like a packet of like calcium phosphate or something and just pour it in there and say like,
Oh, yep. That's what you need. Like, it's probably different. I don't know how it's different, but, uh, probably different.
So you're just, you're just completely cooked. There's no way you got to like drink water
directly out of the river or something. Okay. So at my first house, I had, I had, uh,
I had like a water system where I float it over a bed of like rocks that were all like, uh,
they were all selected at the time
for being like a type that would bleed a given mineral into the water. Uh, like a type of type
of river rock. And I had this all in the sunlight because I think, I think it actually does matter
that water is both running and exposed to sun. I might be crazy, but I think that matters. Uh, and then I would collect this
in a very small, uh, drum because I wanted to mostly keep it circulating. Like I, and then I
just had like an electric pump that would fizz it up to the top and then it would run the circuit
again. So did you like run this through some kind of filtration first, or you're just like
running it over rocks and that's good enough? Yes. No, I, I would, I would RO it first.
Gotcha. Uh, so I don't know maybe we should
either i feel like you're making design a water filter that will save american birth rates because
that's the other problem like what if everyone just isn't having sex because the fluoride calcified
their balls look at this by the way this guy says imagine converting all these viewers to ox
10k potential ox users that might be true yeah we're doing our
best man i mean honestly like if your thesis is that all of the shit coins are going to zero
uh and you want to short them yeah where else are you want to short them. Yeah, where else are you going to short? It is tough.
It is tough to think of another place.
Most ones are down.
The new listings are getting cooked.
Except for RFC.
RFC is mooning.
Holy fuck.
Dude, this is almost like a doubling of olp wow
this is getting the rewards as well right yeah um is the graph including the rewards or is this just
uh including the rewards which started about a week ago um so yeah this will just but honestly
the rewards are not making up a high
portion of this no this is just from the fact that people are long bitcoin ether against
um look at the positions now
yeah bitcoin youth soul shorts
i think what's going to end up happening is that no one's going to have any AUX left
by the end, except OLP.
And then $1 a buy will send it to 20 cents.
One thing I have noticed is that when AUX is at a higher price, people get really conservative
with it in some ways.
I know, yeah.
And then at a lower price, everyone is like, this happened multiple times before.
I'm seeing it myself.
I'm like, ah, fuck it.
Like, just tossing millions of aux positions or losses around whatever.
Who knows?
I just lost like 30 cents or something yeah exactly it's um it's interesting
I mean the the guys who made a lot on Oxfam they they were just like long majors before Trump and
then Ox pumped it and and you know the coins pumped So they're up like 100x basically, or like 1500x.
Yeah, but a lot of them gave it back also from what I saw. But basically it's like
you get this crazy convexity because the people who are hedging the flow against them,
they also then buy back Ox in the market and then also also they just hold their pnl so it's just crazy reflexivity it's like you're basically market buying the coin that
you're using as collateral with all your you know simultaneously right yeah it's pretty hilarious
there was a period in there where like uh when people did catch the bottom on ox with longs on platform it was actually like oh no like are we like is the exchange uh
is the exchange going to be able to be profitable this month with these people making this much
yeah this old piece chart starts at um november
Yeah, this OOPs chart starts at November-ish,
but like mid-November-ish, but yeah, early November,
I think the internal marketing strategies
were drawing down for sure.
Oh, this is very rough.
Probably not that bad, right?
Probably not that bad, right?
Okay.
Okay.
Just like too volatile probably.
Just too volatile.
The range is...
12% is not enough of a range.
12% both ways. is that i mean i think the ideal way to play eth player now that i'm now that i'm looking all of
at all of this is basically like uh look at the eth chart and when it retests when when these range candles retest the previous like this thing the previous
uh resistance you probably just want to consider switching to olp right like retest dump
retest dump yeah this might be one of the worst charts for any large cap asset in like years right um
because they were saying how like well q1 was the worst quarter for eath ever but then
yeah this is like a monotonically decreasing chart
like step function down I mean the the pumps are just like like it is literally not made one it hasn't broken
there's no squeeze like the high once if you're short epdc like it's just like you
never get tested you can be short like on 20x leverage there's no test crazy
you see that's why i feel dumb because i was shorting it with like 0.6x or 1.2x or something
and i'm realizing like i actually could have just entered my position with the short and held a 50x short like i there actually was no need to manage any risk there apparently
was no risk i mean each soul now is not far from 0.1 like that's the craziest thing like i kept
i used to tweet a lot about like at what price will we reach 0.1 will it be like and i used to
think like oh maybe it's at like 3 000 and 3 k i was sorry three three thousand and three hundred
or like two thousand and two hundred but actually it's gonna be like one maybe like 120 and one
like and 1200 i think like 1200 each and 120 soul it feels like it's just it's just
that's gonna be the level maybe um maybe like 1K, 100 soul.
That would be pretty brutal.
This does kind of make more sense now.
Like, it's almost too easy.
There's not enough money in the space for, like, it used to be, remember, like, when a coin pumps, other similar coins would pump, and you'd be like, well, that's because we
value this relative to that, and we missed that one one so we're going to follow this one yeah like that kind
of like reflexive type pricing um or subjective type pricing but now it's just like okay that one
pumps i need to sell mine and get into that one before i die like that's the mentality of the
market now i think just like yeah it's like not, there's no longer like a rising tide lifts all boats thing at all.
It's like individual PVP for assets.
Yeah.
Part of that maybe is from the meme coin market too.
Like the meme coin market, there's no beta, like there's no beta to like the daily runner.
Like you don't buy the second coin.
Like there are coins they try to launch new ones as beta, but there are no old coins that
are beta to the new coin.
They're strictly rotation out right yeah you always never like do well buying the second coin either no remember uh goat's uh true terminals girlfriend oh yeah sydney that was
that whole everyone was just like high on euphoria
at some point i have like four drafted tweets of me just roasting people for like how crazy it was
that three months ago or something people were like truth terminals girl truth terminal just
mentioned it has a girlfriend and it's only at 40 mil. Like only at 40 mil, bro.
Like these type of tweets were on the timeline like avidly.
It's so crazy to think about now.
Even though admittedly we've had two Truth Terminal runners in like the last week to be honest.
So runners, it went to like a mil, but.
Yeah.
It was such a euphoric stage of the market that, like, in hindsight, that whole period of trading meme coins and shit from, like, October or, like, September to January felt like a lost the entire fortune they made in the trenches
or gave it back or even fucking lost even more than they made is mental.
Yeah.
It's the worst state I've ever seen it in.
Even last cycle during altcoin dumps, people weren't as crashed out as they are this cycle at this point it's quite
it's quite different too because of the liquidity profiles like actually everyone's playing an own
game but they didn't realize it because the liquidity pool is so thin you ultimately can
only get that amount of money out so it's like you know when all coins are going down a lot less
cycle like many people can sell right they have sexless things liquidity is deep like you can sell those coins but mathematically like nobody
has actually like 0.1 can cash out from a like 100 mcap coin like someone can make 500k right
like that ratio of like what people think they have versus the amount of money they can take out
it's absolutely hilarious yeah like if it's like if you had to guess
walking like how many
people actually
kept the majority of their gains
the majority of their gains like nobody
from the trend yeah
i mean somebody has to have like
yeah yeah there's there's people that have
like come out on top but i think think the amount of people that actually made money
is like maybe, I think maybe like 5%
that ended up actually net profitable in the end.
Jeez.
And of that 5%, I think that the amount
they even have round tripped
is like probably like 90% of their portfolio.
Yeah, that's crazy.
So even though you won,
you only won 10% of what you could have won.
Like I'm a prime example of it.
Like I was living it up and spending a shit ton of money,
all this stuff when I was like up on all my meme coins, like degen meme coins.
That's good.
At least you were not spending money.
I think it's actually a great money.
Yeah, exactly.
Like I just had a great time.
And then now in hindsight, I look at it and I'm kind of like,
I was sitting on so much money and it wasn't like a large proportion of i didn't even realize right
didn't even spend like imagine i just took all of it and said yeah fuck this whole meme point thing
but it felt so consistently easy to win like income you're like annualize this out for like five years like yeah yeah no i'd fucking i'd flip elon right so
like ultimately you don't realize in the moment that's why i said it kind of felt like a fever
dream and i think most people didn't realize including myself to some degree when it came
to meme coins luckily like my main skills are in perps and stuff so like that's where i just focus
on but in meme coins like the amount of round trip
that's just diabolical right yeah sure and i think that's for the the vast majority of people like
even you look at someone like maraud's like public profile like i think he's down 15 mil from all-time
highs or something hasn't sold a penny but i'm sure he had other wallets i hope he took something
out because otherwise he needs to get out of his dubai penthouse he could have like hedged also like a lot of those bigger
ones that perps has perps i don't think the other ones i mean i'm not sure Quite a bit of them ended up on Bybit. I don't know. I just sold on the way up. I definitely missed out on some multiples
in a lot of cases, but I didn't draw down on memes at all like i just sold too early instead i guess that's just like
the one or the other sort of evil yeah yeah but it's i think a large part of the trenches
i think that's generally just with making money like if you have some money or like a decent
amount of money already to live off of it's so much easier for you to play these things correctly versus someone who's giga poor and has like a thousand dollar
portfolio and is aping it into these meme coins praying to god he's gonna get this 100x lick
yeah and if you have money to live off but also that person probably outperformed me like
by percentage right like quite i think i mean the the broke guy is always outperformed to the upside
and then giga out like underperform on downside and it's the inverse for yeah reverse right
yeah but ultimately i think like the rich and it's kind of the same thing right if you're already
rich and you have money it's so much easier to just play it correctly like so yuki said like he didn't you weren't fiending for 100x
so when you were up 30x you were like i might just sell here like this looks like a good spot to get
out and you missed out on it gradually clipped out you know yeah you missed out an additional
two three x from there but like did it really impact your life no but if someone was poor put
in a hundred dollars up 30x you know he's only at 3k and he's trying to make a million dollars. he he went in for cannabis consumption but basically
before he went in like uh and they had raided his place so he didn't have time to like prepare like
they did he just went straight to jail but before he was raided he bought like 5k like a bunch of
meme different meme coins uh like he bought 5k spx and it went 200x basically since his buy like even now at this
dump price so he like and had he had no idea like he went back and checked and like you know he had
a million dollars of spx when he checked that's crazy um yeah because because like the other ones
he had like were mostly like up like 1x to 5x like They were mostly still up because he was just very early at that time.
But it actually goes to show like how convex it still is.
Like if you're in the earliest phase
of like the Bitcoin cycle.
Yeah, he was like, he came out
and just instant dumped everything he had
because he's like, this is like a free money thing
because he didn't expect to make as much money.
He was like going to sell it at like a 3x or 4x himself it's like a great way to force yourself to hold i guess
yeah it's fantastic i sold a lot of my spx way too early
it did it does seem i think i definitely would have outperformed if i just held every everything i bought and i don't know i mean but then how do you decide if i like given where we are it's probably still
plus tv for people like us to just hold yeah like spx we there was an ox spx pool on either remember
back when bruce had the uh pool games like you you could pair and then we'll list it so we did
that with sps yeah and sps is up like 300x since that time like it was done at like
under like one cent or something it was done at some ridiculous price um and then that is now our biggest pool on eath which is the spx ox pool so it's pretty uh it's pretty hilarious um and same
with like retardial so we had a retardial pool and then retardial went 80x um i was in a colleague we should have just had like a treasury of all
these meme coins at that time um we essentially did yeah through the pools but yeah i think we
should have like had a liquid treasury of these um and then nuked them at the top. Every meme coin I bought early was like,
if I had just did the meme of just placing all of my buys in that first six months
and then not looking and then coming back at the right point,
but also if I came back now instead of the right point,
I got really lucky with my ledger
and then trapping myself in Taipei.
Because it's like, I would have missed the SPX thing. Kind of a jail move as well because it's like i would have missed the spx
thing kind of a jail move as well it's like a self-jailing yeah like i i attribute a lot of
my success this cycle to the fact that i left my ledger in the states and then left like this is
the only cycle that it actually sold within like uh anything close to the top actually um
within like uh anything close to the top actually um so like i i think i'm just going to do it again
next time like i'm just going to leave letters in various places and see what happens
because like basically everything i did mean coin trenches wise it was like the amount of effort
that i put in for the amount of money that i got out it was like i can't even say if i honestly
broke profit on any of the like random meme coin shit that i did uh so i just very quickly pivoted
to just saying like at some market cap i'm just going to short them all
yeah like if you look at our client flow now they're basically like fomo shorting meme coins right yeah my only early edge this cycle was starting to short meme coins before
it became consensus that you should short meme points now it's consensus so it's like i don't
even know if it's a great idea anymore i I mean, the daily runners, they just always have this trajectory that's like,
like formulaic.
Some of them are trying to do this trajectory, but.
Well, like that, that was the thing also that like, you know, when things actually ran,
you could not just like short it and say, I'm going to hold this short, right?
Like you could not just say, I'm going to go this short right like you could not just say i'm going to go 1x short
like uh whatever whatever coin hits 700 mil because like what if it does dog
but now it's just like well we know it's not going to do that so
the risk of shorting went down a lot and also with how fast the market cycles played out like i know
that at some point if i am in a short even if it's a very low like leverage short uh and i'm down like uh
like if a coin goes up 5x like i will be panicking still even though it's like i am confident at some
point it will go down but i will panic increasingly harder and at some point i might just wake up at
3 a.m and do something really retarded and close the short for like a massive loss, right?
Yeah, that's true.
That was my other edge this cycle.
I was realizing that I'm like, I'm too girlish in my inclinations and too whimsical.
And so I should just like let uh let an algo manage it that's the big thing i think people would do a lot better if they just
had ai ai managed portfolios not because ai is that good but because it doesn't make mistakes
in the same way yeah like ai is like in general like i've out i've outperformed all of my uh like my algo trading which is like
really really fucking minimum at this point but like it's just enough that like uh i i cannot
randomly fuck it up by waking up and being like a retard sometime and like that's actually like
a huge downside risk is the chance of just waking up in the middle of the night
after you had like a nightmare or something and like just closing huge conditions spent a massive
loss honestly yeah what if we just what if we just build out like uh we we just train people to
use the ox api on the screen uh to make trading rules i think we'd have to look at client data too much and that would be like bad. But like,
I bet if we looked at every user's account, we could probably find a set of like seven
rules that we just make like, we tell them like, okay, this is how you make money. And
this is how you lose money. Like, this is how you specifically make and lose money,
particularly when you're trading. Like, I can definitely look at my trades on odds and say
that. I can absolutely
just look at my portfolio and say
these are all the things I do when I'm
about to lose a lot of money.
Yeah.
That would be pretty
interesting, actually.
It's very consistent.
Yeah.
I mean, the really interesting question about the markets now is like, what happens if even if Trump wants to pump stocks, he can't, right?
Like if that actually got into that mode.
Like just confidence has been lost, like you were saying the other day.
Yeah, yeah. Like that's possible i think because the problem is that the pe's are a little bit too high so you can have a
like you know decay of like 40 percent of just like earnings um i mean earnings will fall a lot
also but then like pe's can also fall so if you do like the pe and earnings double fall a lot also, but then like PEs can also fall. So if you do like the PEN or earnings double fall, and then let's say he starts trying to talk stocks back up. He tries
to like say, we're going to, you know, let's say the Fed lowers rates and stocks fall anyways.
Like that, that actually becomes like pretty, pretty like brutal. So yeah. Like how do you
even, how do you even fix that?
You basically have to wage war at that point.
You have to be like, why am I Germany at that point?
You're like, okay, well now we need to just take stuff.
We need to take assets from
places.
China said we need to protest now,
bro. It's not how China works.
No protests.
Nihilism mode yen caricature i mean it's like
protesting is a very western concept isn't it i mean in china they have protests also but like smaller scale like they'll protest against like local policies you don't really have, like, mass protests as much.
Do they just get, like, shut down if they do happen, like, way quicker than the West?
Not really.
I mean, they usually let them go.
Like, in China, you can, like, insult a police officer all day and they don't care.
Like, this happens all the time. Like, some old grandma will be, like, mad at the police that didn't do something.
So, he'll, like, she'll go and like badger them it's very common there's a guy who stands with like a nazi
flag outside one of the buildings here like every single day he's just waving it around and uh
yeah like people just sometimes come up to him and talk like it just doesn't die
no it doesn't appear to me i don't even know if he's like pro-nazi
or if he's like saying that like the taiwanese are nazis or something like uh i i don't even
know his positioning i just know that he generally goes unmolested except by like american travelers
who are like uh they sometimes just walk up and say like what are you doing like not like uh like
what are you doing you're so evil but like they're just interested yeah just like a confusing thing to see that would confuse the shit out of me honestly
yeah
i don't know i think that's what a lot of the americans starting to realize now like what if
he actually can't turn this bigot on because like if china i mean i think china has
said to local firms you cannot invest in american companies anymore right so imagine if like american
stocks get this like de-risk like this de-risking premium and then he tries to like you know we're
saying he tries to pump them back for elections but like imagine he can't pump them right
for elections but like imagine he can't pump them right because if he says he's gonna print money
in them buy like literally buy stocks like people will dump on him in that case right if they because
they're like this is now right like this is my chance to get out yeah so and then you have like
the problem of like competitiveness like if you lose that competitiveness then you actually just
giga cooked right like at that point so it's actually a little bit disturbing to think about.
Like Mac 7, none of these companies existed
like 25 years ago, right?
This is not like...
But it's good for Bitcoin.
Aside like maybe Microsoft.
Yeah, except Microsoft.
The business is so different than that as well.
Yeah, Apple, like, yeah.
But they were like tiny. Apple was. Yeah. Apple, like, yeah. But they were, like, tiny.
Apple was tiny.
I mean, Apple was nothing.
And, yeah.
I think maybe the bottom is when Buffett actually deploys his cash
in, like, these crazy things.
He's, like, the backstop of the U.S. economy again.
Yeah.
He's, like, again, selling puts without putting up any money.
He's, like, selling puts on the Mac 7 and saying, sure, I'll buy the stuff 10% down.
I'm not giving you any collateral because I'm more solvent than you are.
And yeah, it's almost what you need to do.
because like the earnings decay is going to be crazy like i can't even imagine right now
Because like the earnings decay is going to be crazy.
Like I can't even imagine right now.
um yeah based on like the increased cost of materials and stuff basically or
yeah increased cost of materials also just like boycotting of american products like
it's just going to be oh yeah like international yeah yeah i don't really know how we like um
yeah yeah i don't really know how we like um
win against china in like sort of like a chicken game it doesn't really make sense to me
i don't think it can like and especially not against the whole world like if it was just
china and then they like actually were good to the allies then i think there's some world where
like everyone boycotts china but the problem is that they're like, I boycott everyone else.
Yeah, we're like fighting everybody at the same time. That's really difficult.
Yeah. I mean, I'm sure there's some phrase in Art of War that says don't fight everyone at the same time.
Like Hitler did the same thing. He fought everyone at the same time.
And then after World War II, people are like, why did the same thing he fought everyone at the same time and then after world war ii people like why did he fight the russians what why did he lose a half his army fighting inside
siberia that there's no value there like there's no go into stalingrad in the winter and like
get nuked basically right like because even if he takes stalingrad like then what like yeah like
what is the point yeah now you control some shitty place in like in like the
in the winter like i don't know but um but i think it's like the kind of thing where it's
like if you're expanding you you just think like okay you take this take that
like yuan devaluation is coming for sure um but is that even really like a problem
when they can they have like not a problem for china it's a problem for the u.s more of a problem
for us because we don't manufacture you don't manufacture yeah exactly like and especially
even their asset prices like i think they could probably just um intentionally sort of like print to keep at
keep their financial markets afloat much better than we could they're gonna literally stimulate
now to turn it into a consumer economy like the us they're gonna be like well everyone can just
sell products into the in china now and then they can get a lot of like bilateral trade going that
way so yeah like we literally don't have the like we have to like build all of the manufacturing
first for us to like five years yeah how are you gonna build these things you're gonna you're gonna
build yeah like this stuff is gonna like continue deteriorating much quicker than we can actually
bring manufacturing back yeah exactly exactly and then each earnings of all these big companies is
gonna like surprise the downside by like 40 or something and then stocks are gonna nuke again and then he's
gonna be like okay but we're gonna manufacture but like the whole idea of manufacturing this
stuff it's like everyone can see that it can't happen and like that quickly right yeah yeah i
guess the other really big problem is that like uh the main benefit of like uh the american manufacturing mean historically
has been like oh you you pay more for a good but it lasts longer right yeah this is inherently a
value that you only realize on like a five to ten year time frame like you buy the washer and it
doesn't break after 30 years now you've realized the benefit of the American manufacturing, but like, uh, you don't actually,
it's completely untrue.
Now it's not, it's not true. It's untrue now,
but it's like,
it could be true in some world where you return to like, uh,
manufacturing for like longevity. Right. Uh, but like,
I'm just assuming that you do that and it works. Right.
But even in the best case scenario where that does all pan out,
you only realize it on a very long time.
Yeah.
Enzo was saying that it's,
which I agree with him that it is important for the U S to bring back
manufacturing.
So we're not like falling behind militarily since everything's like more
focused on drones now and stuff.
We need like the manufacturing capability,
but like the way that we're going about this seems just very poorly thought out like uh like we should have done this
with like um positive you know like i don't know like tax benefits or something to try to like
get the specific manufacturing we need back here rather than just tariffing everybody on the planet
it's like an insane i do think you could say i i do think you yeah it is like insane but i i do also think that it's one of those things where at a given level of comfortability
uh it just won't happen i don't i don't necessarily know that you can like uh soft stick it into
happening like i i don't really know that you could uh softly incentivize american manufacturing
to a meaningful degree if there's alternatives that are still like more profitable, easier,
especially on like a short timeframe when you don't know who's going to be in
office in four years.
Drone manufacturing.
Like that was the specific thing.
Better drones.
Yeah.
They should just spend a hundred billion dollars like investing more in
drone tech.
Like they don't need to do this tariff stuff.
Yeah.
It could have been completely like private,
like how they already do right now, you like uh contractor yeah yeah exactly but that's all
they needed to do but i think trump i think he liked this idea of like you nuke stocks and then
pump them later but this is like a very like there's some childlike elements to this idea because
you you can definitely nuke stocks but can you pump them back after you nuke them is a different question.
Right.
Because maybe you can't at that point.
Maybe like go a little too hard or something.
You go a little too hard and the reaction function is a little bit different as well.
So I've seen some signs of like the market is now pricing this in now.
They're like, wait, what if he loses control?
Because he must control the bond market, right? The bond market is not behaving the way they want it at first bond
yields with below and now they're like skyrocketing again like that actually increased the cost
like what if he does tariffs and then bond yields go to like five and a half percent on the 10-year
like then what's the story right yeah it's just broken for just we're just screwed at that point
yeah just broken we're just we're just screwed at that point yeah so then he has to like show
it when he's gonna invade canada he's gonna annex it that's probably what that's like why he was
already talking about this we'll like go invade greenland with their like 200 000 people annex
the cartels he's gonna use the cartels as an excuse annex mexico and then you're and then you're on for world war three
that's the scenario so because then once once one major power starts it the way the sense of work
is one major power starts it then other regions in the world start activating and they're like
well you know now we can go and make a move right yeah they annex something so yeah so yeah they can move into the satellite states and they can set
up puppet government um yeah and then probably in the end there's like four countries again in the
world something like that um bonds are ripping because china's dumping yeah true but it's also the idea of like you know inflation like is
inflation going to go down in the us is maybe not because of the tariffs right so do you think that
like is there is there in general a benefit to making the american consumer less sensitive uh to total poverty by inflicting a few total poverty on
yeah it's very communist it's a very cultural revolution it's like because that was also the
idea of cultural revolution which was so i think he's actually studied it um which is
they want you to accept poverty that it's like good for you it's austerity basically
like what china did was during cultural revolution is it took all the elites and all the people in cities and then said you really should be more like a farmer uh the farmers hold up the economy
and so they sent them to basically the countryside to like a farm by hand for like two years
um this is actually really bullish for idea of uh lucas teaching everyone
how to live like a uh like a raccoon person yeah like this is really really bullish for
lucas poverty as a service yeah tutorials that that caused the first generation of people just
like getting the fuck out of china because like like my parents were in that generation like they
had to like the year they're going to college, they're supposed to go to college. They are like, they have to go and like,
basically, uh, like farm in the countryside for two years instead of going to college. And then
they go to college afterward. But it's like that generation after like, they could, they just like
went to the States because they're like, this is retarded. But then later on, it's like i think now if you get this um like you get this effect of um
of like okay if you have like imagine if america's like okay we have these factories now
uh like imagine they actually manufacture though we have these factors now guys it's time to work
like i don't know how people are going to react you know you like let's say you cut all these
white collar jobs and you have these like uh like manufacturing
jobs um like older people might be like nostalgic for those jobs can young people
will they want those jobs i don't know if they can do them
i do think frankly manufacturing right now is a lot harder than it needs to be
like is it you know like we're at a point in the uh in like the industrial cycle where there
are actually a lot of like superior like welding machining etc processes to the ones that we're
using i guess i tweet the other day some guy saying like is there any reason why laser welding
shouldn't just take over standard like uh mig processes and it's like actually no for like
small scale stuff like uh for for most like uh, I don't know, half inch plate thick welding.
It's like, ah, you could actually just do laser.
And if you scale this, it'll be like way cheaper, easier.
And it's like you're no longer breathing in the same degree of just like absolute noxic nano vapor fumes.
uh like all of this stuff could get easier uh there's a lot of countries that have actually
Like all of this stuff could get easier.
like you know it's like in the same way that when a country is first industrializing they're
adopting whatever the most recent like telecom industry standard is and they wind up having
like a more advanced network than the u.s you go to some random second world agent country
and they just have like notoriously better uh network infrastructure than the us you can get gigabit ethernet for like two dollars a month or something like that you go to the us and it's like
now this is somehow like a uh like 180 monthly proposition it goes out all the time because
there's only like three media providers or three uh like uh internet service providers and like all
of uh whatever your region is um so like there is a way that all of whatever your region is.
So like there is a way that all of this can be better and more and more efficient. And I think like whatever the existing system was, was definitely
incentivizing us to like not do that more.
Even with basic production mechanisms.
Yeah, I mean, historically, these are like the ingredients for total war, right?
Because what happens is you create this manufacturing demand that is is set up and then you find that the thing you manufacture has no
buyer for it naturally and then you say well why don't we just employ them as soldiers instead
right yeah and because then at least i can pay them for like invading stuff and then it's like
a plus ev because that's like okay if i've invaded canada and i've taken over that that's like roi i can pay them to do it but like yeah if you have
factories getting more efficient different tech new tech there's still not that much demand for
that like high school grad who wants a job in manufacturing that pays more than you know
like the manufacturing jobs overseas they they pay much less and they require more work.
So the same factory in the US, given the inflation in the US, is going to produce a product that's
like a 9K iPhone, basically, right?
So that just doesn't add up.
So you have to basically produce manufacturing of defense, of defense essentially and then like all defense
tech and you have to literally put it to work to get roi on it so like and the problem i think for
america is that like a lot of their military spend has been helping allies defend their shit like
trump is not wrong so he's like helping like nato to defend their stuff or helping japan defend
and so they may just be like i I'm going to charge for defense now.
Right.
That's what Trump's trying to do.
He's like, I want to tax you tributary state for defense or else I'm going to
like just invade and stuff.
Right.
And like, like collect what I'm like, I'm going to recruit my investment on
defense basically.
It's pretty nuts.
Actually, I've been kind of war pill the last few days.
I think it's, I think it's pretty nuts actually i've been kind of war pill the last few days i think it's i think it's
coming um we're finally doing it all the finance boomers are right things happening the people who
have been holding holding uh like just pounds of like gold uh bars yeah finally vindicated
like part of trump's calculus here has to be that like there's total war at the end of it and he wants it to happen right i think that that's part of his calculus which then makes it a lot more
understandable because it's like um you know like he has a chance to be the first to expand the
like the boundaries of the us in like 100 years right so yeah i think what's going to end up
happening with manufacturing is like
instead of employing people and you get like a 9k iPhone they're just gonna
like if they're forced to actually bring this stuff back to the States
they're just gonna automate much more of the process so like it'll just be like
robotics do exactly so we'll still end up cheaper than 9k but it's like it's
not gonna create jobs here no there's no way to quit those jobs other than to
put them into the army like that's
the only job yeah that is like that's it made me think about that when you said that like
like uh that makes sense now you know yeah the same thing in germany right like they create the
conflict they say we are the victim like in germany was the victim post treaty of our side
they had these big reparations and then they're like well the world is against us and we need to expand and then and then because they're buying weapons and they're buying this
tech there's the weapon seller is always like well we're we're bullish war right because that's
good for our business yeah and they always find the credit to buy the weapons because the margins
on selling weapons is always like a bajillion percent so i mean i guess that is one like
positive factor for the u.s is we have um a lot of weapons
manufacturing already so yeah you almost need war for this thing to work out yeah yeah exactly
um i think sometimes it's like a bit of a boyish thing where it's like you have all these weapons
it'd be a shame if no one got to use them you know it's like like i want to know if this stuff works or not so
yeah we did finally switch to a uh to a new army firearm one that actually kills people also
so that could be bullish
previously we had stuff that was really good at poking holes in people but
yeah low killing like if you think about the world that's like a risk like a risk game like a game of risk that board
game it's like america's just like prime to like spread into latin america and like up into greenland
and like take you take the uk from the top right oh yeah yeah it's just primed for that move
taking the uk would be crazy
i mean it's sort of like are you gonna take the uk or a random like arabs gonna take the uk
it's like there's no reason you should lose to random random arabs i mean that's the narrative
that they're pushing right so yeah very bullish war i think the european german like uh manufacturers are up like
20x or something in two months like the the the european rearmament trade it's massive
yeah they're saying he wants a one trillion defense budget i don't honestly know if that's good or bad
this is the problem. We're
getting into like a territory where I just have no idea about any of this. Like I can, I can pretty,
like I can pretty easily model out like what will happen if someone creates like a new DeFi
primitive and like releases it to the market. Like I will be able to successfully guess now
how like the retail market is going to respond to this. I actually do not have a model of global finance.
I have not attempted to build this out yet. So now anytime anyone says some new thing that it's
like, it's so outside the scope of what's been tried before. And then they're just like,
this is so either X, it's either good or bad, or this is... I'm like, I actually don't know.
I cannot realistically tell you
that i have any idea what any of this means now we're just like outside uh out of the nest
no it's like a much bigger system for sure yeah
and it depends on things that are like not rational market activities at a certain point,
right? Like that's the big thing. We're now like pricing in sort of like sentiment in a way that
is non-speculative. It's like how much does like this given country value like their own defense,
given country value, like their own defense, like being, being them versus being some other
party versus being like something that they pay for versus something that they engage
in, like some sort of like a trade deficit to allow happening.
Like, and it's different.
And I don't actually like, I don't have a model for, like, how does the Indian people
respond to this versus the Chinese people versus the Japanese people, you know?
Yeah.
I mean, nobody's, like, traded a world war since 70 years ago.
So it's definitely...
We might want to start playing RTSs.
There's two things we need to do on the stream.
We need to start playing war games, and
we need to start using Ox.Fun
APIs to see if we can make a
successful algo trader.
Yes.
What are some good... Actually, Sayuki, we should do that.
Warcraft, Warcraft 3.
Yeah, we can... We should get Enzo
in on it, too. Enzo's, like,
algo-pilled.
Enzo's really fucking good at this stuff. I'm convinced that get Enzo in on it too. Enzo's like algo-pilled. Enzo's really fucking good at this stuff.
I'm convinced that if Enzo
just gets bored enough,
he's going to create some sort of
I don't even know if it'll be like
AI, but he will create some trading
algo that will just make him a billionaire
in the next 10 years
by just like iterating on
things because he was bored yeah
what race do i mean on warcraft 3 undead is probably my strongest race but i can play all
all the races it's more fun to play on random usually um
but i haven't kept up with the last few years of balance changes. I know they changed a lot of balance stuff.
But Hasu is actually really good at WorldCraft3.
I think he was almost a pro player.
The guy I used to do Uncommon Core with.
But WorldCraft3 is such a lindy game like it keeps like
coming back and then now there's tournaments again
in like south korea and china
and europe is really popular
as well
yeah if you're org
i usually just do blade master
i think hasu's
not doing lido he's an advisor for Lido, but I think he does,
what is it called? Flashbots.
Yeah, Corby is like this French player, right? Or some of european orc player is really good
ready for gulag gulag is is this currently gulag or more gulag is coming
like at this point sailors uh average price might get tested i think So so what do you think about this whole uh getting rid of income tax type deal
so i think he probably wants to do this transition from like no income tax to like
consumption tax right which terms are kind of like consumption tax but um
tax. But it depends on the budget, right? If he can't balance the budget, then he's
not going to get the tax cuts through. And if rates have gone higher and they're not
actually collecting that much from tariffs, then you actually can't lower income tax so
where's the next big e-link target i think there's a big one around 1150 or so so I wonder if he'll just like do it anyway. Like is the income tax really that, I'm not, how much of that is that actually pays the
federal budget anyways?
Isn't it mostly like
printing yeah i mean if he cuts income tax that is a big stimulus but it's not it's not necessarily
gonna pass by that time because like congress will be scared because again like yields might
again blow out right yeah like the default risk of the u.s is going higher and
higher now like that's why yields are going up because people want people are scared of that
like rapid devaluation of dollar which is great for bitcoin obviously so but um that would be
that would be actual max pain is if u.s dollar goes to zero and stable coins all uh spiritually
de-peg i was building stable coins
like bro no one wants to hold dollars in this kind of scenario like it's actually like argentina
there's actually a lot of similarities to like early ninth early 20th century argentina right now
so you could have like a if this is like 08 you have a bitcoin moving like gold so first
gold did like a thousand to eight hundred and gold like basically went to two thousand right so you have like bitcoin go the wrong way first
because of the liquidity crash and then people realize wait the dollars are literally worthless
people are selling out of bonds and then repatriating japan is repatriating so much money
right now uh japanese like dollar yen goes back under 100 you know you have this window of like
japan cheap
and now japan's super expensive again for americans like it used to be like that's kind of
it's kind of what i feel like it's gonna happen macro wise now like it would make a lot of sense
to me so it's a scenario where it's like you literally don't, there's no assets that you can hold safely.
I mean, you know, like yen, I think Japanese yen, Swiss franc, traditional safe havens,
safe haven currencies.
You can hold Bitcoin dominance longs, I guess.
That's a safe haven asset.
My Taiwan dollars are going up.
Taiwan dollars is a safe haven asset yeah because
taiwan has a massive it's ironic to people because they think it was like i was gonna get invaded
whatever but taiwan has like the biggest uh trade surplus in global history like literally taiwan
exports like shit tons of stuff and imports almost nothing so there there's these taiwan life
insurance companies that make like these like billions of dollars a year and they have to invest overseas.
So if they repatriate back in Taiwan, that always strengthens Taiwan dollar.
But yeah.
North Korean won.
I wonder how they get exposure to North Korea.
I'm very bullish in North Korea, actually.
Does it seem difficult to even get financial exposure to it?
It's difficult.
Yeah, it's difficult.
Before the enhanced sanctions that I think Obama put in, you could get exposure.
Singapore was one of the countries that was doing a lot of business.
A lot of companies were doing business.
There were guys importing sodas and food stuff
and selling at pretty high markups.
You can still do it via Russia or China, I'm sure,
but you probably should be a Chinese or Russian citizen
to do that properly.
Yeah, I don't think it's something you want to touch as an American, for sure.
If you're American, you don't want to touch it. If Virgil griffith had just not been american he would have been fine right uh like if he was like any other country almost he would
have been fine um but yeah so i don't know like it's like iran for instance if you're french
you can like there's no sanctions i believe for most European into Iran so you can just like do business in Iran like you can have like a like
Iran private equity fund for instance or if you're Japan they do a lot of business with Iran as well
so you can like you can just be like focusing on like Iranian business right um so
Iran's probably also not that bullish though because oil's gonna go to zero looks like as well
um yeah oil dumping is like bad that's just like uh straight up like demand flattening indicator
global depression this is like global depression yeah war possibilities
This is like global depression or possibilities.
Why Bullish in North Korea?
Yeah, I mean, they have the same genetic population as South Korea.
They have a better
framework
now because.
I mean, basically. They just have so much room to grow right like from such a low base
and it's generally like becoming a pretty normal I think it's becoming like a more
normal society so I think that you know like kim jong-un isn't that extreme
yeah it's a shame that the trump summit in singapore a few years ago didn't
lead to more because i think trump also wanted to be like the peacemaker north kirk because
i think he sensed that this is like a dumb battle but um yeah i think
the deep state didn't like it lazarus sold their bitcoin for eat i saw they sold a small amount but Maybe they were listening to the stream yesterday when you said they should put the bottom end.
FBDC 01888.
Yeah, I agree.
US real estate is going to giga collapse.
The foreign buyers are all terrified of buying the US now.
They're scared of capital controls.
They're also scared of interest rates.
And then no one can get visas either. College degrees are harder to obtain now how are they hard to obtain yeah i didn't quite understand that either
i mean they might be harder to obtain now in the sense that like uh
nobody has any money and you could still just borrow though.
They're going to be, I mean, presumably they're going to be more meritocratic.
And with AI, it's like, you don't even need to do anything.
Yeah.
College got somewhat debunked in many ways.
Yeah.
Like you can meet a better network on the internet than
you can from college in almost all cases uh you can learn more and faster from ai in almost all
cases until you get into like a hyper specific niche territory which frankly most people didn't
anyway like if we're going to be honest, most people were not like learning groundbreaking bleeding edge stuff in college, obviously some were so there's still
like utility for that. But like those are mostly like the people going on for like PhD stuff anyway.
Yeah, and you'd think that if that system didn't exist, they'd probably just like those people
would still be doing it. Yeah, figure out other way, like with the internet or something.
Well, I mean, like, this was one of the open AI guys actually, who he was one of the like first open AI hires.
Uh, and like the way that he like learned stuff when he wanted to was like, he just, uh, while remote working, relocated himself to like live with like the professor that he was trying to learn from and just like walked into his
thing but he wasn't even at the universe he just walked in and like professors are very rarely like
wow this person has read all of my stuff and they're very interested in this field and uh they're
like willing to talk to me about it like fuck him right yeah yeah they're usually just euphoric
like if you ever email a professor about their work,
they're almost always just like,
holy shit, this is amazing.
They always respond.
Someone said cryptocurrency represents
the greatest misallocation of wealth in human history.
That's an interesting way to put it.
Like as in like completely overvalued or?
Like just misallocation, like the potential for like miss, but, but, but I think it's like,
yeah, it comes and goes, I think it comes and goes i think it comes and goes
yeah world liberty fi doesn't have any obligation to hold anything
i i had actually heard rumors that they were selling like last month already
um which is kind of disturbing because i thought they were going to like use it as
it as a portfolio to like do something but i think maybe they got scared that mark is in a nude um
a portfolio to like do something but i think maybe they got scared that mark is in a nude
i think the issue is that like outside of bitcoin which looks like it's war resistant
everything else is like um generally speaking like partnering with the ecosystem like partnering with
the rest of the world but it doesn't capture enough value from that partnership so it's like relies on this vague uh idea of adoption so it's just like you know if
you go into a world where like you know it's much more adversarial like announcing partnerships
doesn't matter like there's some telegram app i saw that has like clinton has two
two million dAUs or like ma use and it's selling for eight thousand dollars
um because it's just like unless you can like bring in hard cash like you know
what's the point yeah we definitely have like stuff that's just zombie protocols that are
still worth billions of dollars it's kind of ridiculous yeah eventually in that probably gets just get farmed to
zero right um so I think crypto is very good at making new lottery systems, new gambling systems.
i think crypto is very good at making new lottery systems new uh gambling systems i think it's been
less good at real world stuff outside of um stable coins but um sorry just shut down these drones Thank you. Rough.
Rough.
Hmm.
So, Sue, if you had to make $10 million in the next four years, what are your plays?
That's a good question.
I think Ox is the only player if you're talking about $10 million. Yeah.
I think you have to create slash use.
Like in crypto at least, it's got to be like revenue chip generating products. We must use Ox to prove that you can generate revenue on it
i'm looking at this tweet from um so 1953 was the korean war and then i think mal was asked like
how long will the korean war last and he just said i don't
think we need to decide we'll fight as long as we want um and the korean war never officially ended
either um and then 18 years later kissinger flew to a secret meeting with uh joe in line the the
the premier to like basically say like let's not fight anymore so it could take like 18 years
for the fight to end
with that fractal stands up Swifties, yeah, Taylor Swift, Taylor Swift protocol.
Yeah, Barry, I think the thing with Aux,
we need to figure out how to expand the community size.
That's why we are probably going we are probably gonna ship the,
the, the competitions where you have like the 30 minute windows.
Yeah.
I think that's a good one. I also now am a Sayuki.
Like we should genuinely try to to make an ox algo trader with the monkey coins,
now that ox are in the price range where we're all just thinking, I don't know, we can gamble with it.
I want to see if we can make a set of algos on stream that works
i don't know if like people are really going to want to watch us like code algos on stream
no not coding it but just like they'll just probably be interested in the rules
yeah or like the results we can like yeah just watching watching the account like do whatever
it does what's the elevator pitch in the window thing yeah so basically it's a 30 minute uh
tournament trading tournament type thing where you are trading on historical price data but you
don't know when it's from and it's fast forwarded it's sped up by like 1000x so let's say you're
trading the covet crash or you're trading some like you know 2013 bitcoin or something
um whatever it is and then because it's sped up so much you get to experience like a whole
like events price action in like 30 minutes and then you know it's a it's a pari-mutual pool so
you win from the people who lose so like first place down to whatever they earn a bunch and then other people lose money so
um yeah but we can do some cool stuff with that and i think the hope is to expand the community
size massively from that because we can we can get people to like that game is like a fixed buy-in
right so you're not risking as much and it's a more streamable format, I feel. So we can try to use like, you know, like the normal streaming funnels to get people to try it.
So we can ship that in like a few days. It's not hard to ship.
And then worst case, you guys can play with us. We can give you invite codes. If we give you a
certain invite code, you can then like, when you register on Oxfone, you get to play, you get your
first buy-in free. So, so you can play with us and the stuff will be like ten dollar buy-ins right it's not gonna be high buy-ins or
try to reach like a hundred thousand people with like low buy-ins because i think before oxfone is
like you know a lot of you know a few power users are using it a lot and like you know losing and
making a lot and i think that then you have a smallish tail and this would be like very very
long tail of people so yeah it's a bit like know, I was inspired by Rollbit's roller coaster product,
but that one is like too meaningless. You just know you're gambling, whereas this is like
you're studying history, right? So that's the product idea that we ripped on.
I think if we just have rollercoaster,
no one's going to care because it's already on Rollbit
and I don't think people care anymore.
Yeah, aux.edu.
This is Edufy.
I think it'd be really funny if we push for an Edufy branding.
Like aux.fun is educational.
Education beta.
It's definitely funny with the dot phone
domain can we get ox.edu i assume we can't i assume that's like actually pretty hard to get
ox.gov
no one's running a site on ox.edu so
on ox.edu so impossible no one's running what there's no website on ox.edu right now so
now we're gonna have that exact person that i just bitched about
uh He's going to squat on that domain.
I mean, we're not going to pay more than $1,000 of aux for it.
Actually, a million aux, okay, that's about 2K.
Okay.
Aux is edutech.
Aux is edutech.
It's the future of education.
The future of education.
It's like Giggle Academy, aux academy.
It's like Giggle Academy.
Aux Academy.
I think with
EDU is kind of restricted, though.
You can't just register that.
You need to have
an actual education.
Like a college or something.
There's like accreditation or something like that.
We can do it though like this is educational right someone will vouch for us right
just open up like ox college in the states
that's all you'd have to do i think so
wow i've been a costco member for a really long time That's all you'd have to do? I think so.
Wow, I've been a Costco member for a really long time.
How's it going?
Yeah.
Heading out? like a few hours so heading out yeah i did check it by myself 11 though so it's kind of awkward i don't want to go to the airport like there for like five hours and also i left my legs up here
so i figured i would just have my suitcases in one of the back rooms i'll just do some work
Yeah, it makes sense. like this idle state where it's awkward like i don't want to just go to the u.s and just like mill around i'm like very high committed down to the asian time zone and yeah i have a gym pass here
here for a few hours and then i thought yeah that makes sense
so i kind of want to just go to like a random city like new york or l.a just like wait there
for like what could be like a few days like a week yeah and also so i can't get to uh
i'm speaking to about it to come here and then whenever i book my ticket because like oh yeah
i'm not going to be there and then now that i have to go to sam ford for some other things
i was like oh you're there we should be there because we go like basically the day that to go to same for for some other things yeah sue when are you coming back here tomorrow
back tomorrow you're back tomorrow yeah
Yeah.
What time are you feeling like?
What time am I back?
Yeah, what time are you feeling in your heart?
Probably afternoon.
Wow.
You excited?
Yeah.
Get the whole gang back.
Yeah.
Imagine. Get the whole gang back. Nice. Yeah. Imagine now instead of using these goofy mics, we'll both be sitting there right next to each other in the room again.
Nice.
Are you excited to bike into work now?
yes definitely
Yes, definitely.
can I can join the gym you guys go to as well and I'm back been working out a
bunch last few weeks so oh yeah that'll be epic I don't want to call it a vlog because it makes it seem over edited, but even just like a 60 second little video, like 15 seconds every day, just doing the miscellaneous things, it's going to be interesting, it's relatable, it shows you what you're living in being, so it's cool. I thought I'd do some reps or whatever next door in the gym. It'd be funny.
I thought it'd be interesting, so...
Yeah, but then the response, I guess, is, like, not a little familiar, but...
Nobody knows.
I'm trying to fill out a Costco Taiwan membership.
Yeah.
I still have a question. like yeah it's just buying everything here takes a long time
yeah yeah that's really the only complaint i've had here so far everything else is very nice like
you're not getting like completely raped for no reason in prices
different obviously um but yeah it's like everything is like at least from my perspective
at least like an eight out of ten it's like very solid and good um like very little down
at least so far it's pretty decently connected you can fly to a lot of major cities from here
Pretty easily connected.
A lot of major cities from here.
Yeah.
And obviously you guys are
in Texas or
operation here, so
it's pretty easy.
Yeah.
Does anyone know what the difference between Google Gemini
and Google Assistant
I think Assistant is like a, it's like an app that uses Gemini under the hood or something like that.
All I know is my phone switched one for the other on me and now it can't do anything and i'll see you before it uh maybe a power power and a half dish yeah
it's uh probably the the airport down here is pretty fast um yeah i just i'm like uh i like to get there like
between like two and three hours before i take off really i like to get there between 20 and 35
minutes before i take off i actually hate like i've been i think it's because my mom used to
always be late not again like she's like always late so I just have like PTSD from like showing up like 10 minutes
before a flight just like running to the terminal or like getting stuck in traffic and having to
like I don't know I just don't want to deal with that shit yeah I mean like how bad is that you're
on your phone your laptop like it's not like I just get nothing done in airports at all zero done
I go through my chats that I responded to or uh, or get caught up on that sort of stuff.
Or just read something interesting, or get caught up to date with what's happening with the crypto news kind of stuff.
And whenever I'm here and I came into the city, there was like quite a bit of traffic.
So it shouldn't be too bad.
It's like a weekday, like kind of like not at like when people are going home from work.
It's like early, I'll believe like one-ish, two-ish.
Yeah.
So kind of after the lunch round two so whatever we'll see
i'm still kind of salty that like you can't really use the super close by airport i think
you explained to me or somebody else did where like it's like a second that's like a pristine
location for an airport but they like they don want to fuck over the other airport, so they only route global flags here.
Yeah.
Or like, almost like regional travel.
Like, maybe you couldn't fly from Tokyo to there, but you could fly from some second or third city in Japan to that small airport.
That's a bit tricky hmm
me sayuki i think sue just sue just went somewhere
oh he's here he just popped back instantly
i'm not aware of any consumer facing automated trading platforms that offer just enough
customization that keeps people engaged that is historically fucking very hard, actually, because KuCoin has a very similar product to this, but they don't give me enough variables.
And I think they give the average consumer too many variables.
It's a very complicated thing to break down to a normal person.
The problem is right now, actually, like the Zoomer mindshare is so hard to gain capture of that like in order
in order for a product to be like autistic and uh like complicated enough that it can reliably
make you profits i think it also has to exclude like 97 of zoomers from caring about the product
yeah for like automated trading in specific or yeah but i mean for a lot of things actually like
there's there's a lot of uh there's a lot of products that are just non-viable now because
in order to understand it well enough to use it uh you have to be able to pay attention to things
longer than the average zoomer wants to um i think this is actually a problem with a lot of like the
complicated defy protocols like why they didn't really do why they're kind of dead now because it's like there's just too much configuration
and like it's kind of a complicated thing to pay attention to it's the same thing with concentrated
lps right like you actually could have like there are a lot of guys who this entire cycle all they've
done is lp and like just i think on-chain l in general is like a good example like it's all was
really fucking good this cycle because actually it may have been the only cycle of all time
where like there was a primitive that got invented the previous cycle and actually there was less
competition in the field than there was last cycle there's also like no one probably lost this cycle
like they're like for for like stuff because it doesn't run fast enough like if you own a coin
you just LP it you're gonna outperform if it goes up like versus if it going up right
especially like the meme coins on solana because it was like you know some of these things were
doing like 20 30 million dollars volume a day on like 200k liquidity or something like that
yeah you're saying like oh like this is so fake they're just like washing volume and it's like
okay well then just let let them watch it's still it's still routing it through the pool yeah
like i think if i had to go back and do the last year or two over again i would have specced like
i would have started shorting sooner and i would have specced really fucking heavy into lp-ing
yeah i think that was a good move for meme coins for sure. I know some people that printed really hard LP.
I only really LP'd Mog.
And I think if I had done it on Solana and gotten used to the Solana, like if I'd gotten used to the Meteora, the Meteora pools, I probably could have.
Because I've started playing around with them a little bit now, but I'm realizing like, oh my God, like I missed out on actually like generational, uh, generational free money by just not. And you can also tell, you can tell that it actually
made money to cycle because nobody fucking talked about it. Yeah. Like nobody was out there shilling
you LPs or concentrated liquidity pools. It's just like you run across a guy at like an event.
And if you're good enough, it just like a really autistic dude. Yeah.
They'll like share with you their strategy and you're like, oh, that's where all of the smart money went this time.
Definitely makes sense.
I mean, like the, they were kind of like internally doing it too, right?
Like that was the whole thing with Libra and like they were like doing some some really extractive
internal market making.
It's debatable how internal it actually was,
but allegedly.
Just a general
depressing sentiment today
overall.
Just kind of like, yeah.
I think it's because everybody
was yesterday hoping for a little bit of euphoria bounce,
and then instead they got a full retrace and now lower on most things.
Yesterday, I didn't have a great feeling that it's going to...
These things can't V-shape bounce.
You actually need entire stock markets to V-shape also.
It's just not that easy to get,
given that Trump is digging his toes in and he's taking his heels in and also the reaction functions now
you can't undo very easily um yeah like if it would have if it was going to v-shape it would
have had already done it like in trump i think it would have already had to pivot like it's like
past the point of no return almost with how it's probably down the point it's definitely past the point and i think it's like the escalation on the geopolitical
side i think is can be substantial because now if you if you lose control of bond yields then
everyone's like it's just over like you know that's just like the dollars cooked right dollars
cooked yeah like you know that that kind of world is very very dangerous actually
is it possible to like hold the like head like a hedged dollar or something like short dxy against
the dollar does that work or no i mean you just have to hold yen i think you have to hold yen you
you got you have to hold the trade surplus countries
because what they're doing is they're selling all their dollar assets
back to their home currencies to get it saved
because they're denominated in their home currencies, right?
So when they have dollars and they're scared dollars are going to weaken,
they need to sell those and then bring them back to yen.
So, like, yen is a really good buy.
Japan is still a big exporter.
JPY is, like, oh, yeah, it. JPY is slightly up today.
I forgot I had some.
Honestly, most of my entities are also going to weaken.
It's just really hard to even consider where to park all my fiat.
I don't even know if I want to just leave it or...
I don't know.
You can just do Buffett portfolio, just hold cash.
It's basically how I am positioned.
It's definitely not that bad, but it would be nice to catch a move on JPY or something
while the world's nuking.
I mean gold.
I feel like I'm buying it so high now though.
Yeah. It feels high.
Maybe that's just like, I mean, who knows?
What else do you buy though?
That's the thing.
Puts.
You can buy puts.
Yeah.
Basically just like Bitcoin cash and that's it.
That's like a little bit of US real estate, which I guess guess is probably gonna not do well i wouldn't buy real estate this is actually one of the worst environments to buy
real estate i've ever seen yeah i was gonna say man like i'm actually like uh oh you're like
holding quite a bit i mean not quite a bit but i'm holding more than any smart person would want
any smart person would want.
Is it possible to hedge?
I guess I could short REITs or something, but those are already trading below backing,
right?
We were talking about that before.
Yeah, they trade below book.
So in theory, they'd be great RWA candidates because you could just RWA those and someone
pays now for them, then it's already a win versus what they trade out and you're tracked
by rapper um yeah
yeah real estate is hard here definitely i it is nice though that i have like uh
like the more we inflate the more ridiculous all of my uh
all of my down payments become because they're all fixed rate oh yeah i'm now i'm now at the
point where i'm just like cackling because i did all i i was so fucking dumb i went full like uh dave ramsey with
this shit and i did like all 15 year mortgages with everything oh wow
was this like uh i could have i could have done fucking 30 years and i would be paying like
2k a month.
For a 3.5% interest loan for 30 years.
30 years at 4.9% now.
30 years at 4.9% now.
30 years at 4.9?
Yeah.
Huh.
That's still not too bad.
I mean, mortgages... Yeah, mortgages are higher than that.
That's like...
Oh, I thought you were saying that was what the mortgages...
That's the bond.
That's the treasury's yield.
Oh, okay. Yeah.
Yeah. Most of my stuff is literally like 1.875%.
It just makes me giggle every time I think about it. I'm learning also, you know, those like Klarna, like a pay per segment thing where it's like,
oh, like you can't afford these like Jordan, these air Jordans, like a one or 12 or whatever
they are.
Like you can, you can, you can now finance this over 24 months.
Yeah.
It's like 30% or something.
Maybe you are.
No, I, I think it's like a dynamic repricing that they do i found
one where it was zero percent it's usually zero percent if you pick like the short the short
option like it's like a couple payments but then if you like actually want to if you're like
financing shoes over 12 months or something there it's really i will finance anything at zero
percent bro well yeah i mean there's no point at zero percent that's just like why wouldn't you
i will find i will finance like a straight like i will finance a costco hot dog at zero percent
interest i do not care
just imagine the yields imagine the compounding yields, bros.
I think iPhones let you get like a 24-month 0% finance plan if you buy them now too,
which I don't understand why you don't just buy 6 million iPhones and then sell them all and then
just have a free loan?
It's only 0% on their credit card financing.
So I just don't think that you can get enough open line of credit to really do that in large size.
Yeah, that's fair.
That's going to be the way I make it.
All in iPhone 16s. I'm going to use the Indian method to open 62 Apple credit cards per hour
for the next year. And then when the iPhone 17 Pro Max comes out, I'm going to put my entire net worth into them and get a 0% interest
loan. And maybe, I don't know, I'll resell them at like, I'll have to sell them on the black market
is the only problem. So I'll have to be moving like hundreds of iPhones black market per day.
I could sell them on the stream, right? Like, oh, you want an iPhone? You were going to buy it new.
I'll give you a $4 discount what do you say four dollars now i guess i'm paying like uh 1.1.2 percent interest on yeah
it kills your zero percent interesting although it's not like um compounding
yeah that's true hmm okay i think i still make it out of the hole right
depends what you do with the money if you go and lose it all i'm gonna invest it all in u.s treasury
bonds oh yeah okay
yeah those i mean the bond yields might go super high, right? It appears they are, right?
It's not the greatest thing that they are.
I don't know, man.
I see the hypersense and I'm like, this must be good.
Rubbing your hands together.
They're cooking something for me, bros.
They wouldn't be willing to pay me this much unless uh there was a reason to hold these
right boys my bond positions go to zero i'll pivot to Reiki energy. Honestly, yeah, we could do that also.
We could do water filters.
We could do energy healing.
Energy healing is a good one because it's like infinite markup.
But not very scalable.
It's only assuming the energy is free.
Like, I pay for mine.
Do you know that it's actually now the biggest intraday reversal in S&P history?
No, I did not know that. That's crazy.
Like human history of S&P.
Like since the index was formed?
Yeah.
As an intraday move.
That's wild. Bullish intraday reversal
it's hard of winning
tron is still somehow like uh
this is honestly very shocking
shocking. So what kind of factories do you think people want to work in and don't want to work in?
Because I'm looking at the kind of factories that like are, do Americans want to work in like a
like a clothing factory? I just imagine Mexicans will do those jobs right i mean americans will work in any factory uh
that has like sufficiently cool tooling and doesn't make them like die i think yeah
i really think that that's kind of the max pain like they they say all these manufacturing jobs
are going to come back,
but these jobs won't even exist because of robotics and AI.
And then they have to come up with the job at that point.
Because even the service industry right now, right,
it's going to get automated away.
Like already in most of Asia, you just order your food without a waiter.
You just like scan the QR code.
You pick what you want.
Yeah, and then you check the things off and then deliver it to you. That's like better service than having a waiter you you just like scan the qr code you pick what you want and then you check the things off and then that's like better service than having a waiter honestly like it is
yeah you don't have to wait for the guy to come over like the problem with waiters is is that you
should be able to negatively tip them like in many cases their service is so bad that it detracts
from your experience eating at the restaurant and you're like i actually would have preferred if i had gone back to the the kitchen and take
taking the food from the line cook myself like the way that you've achieved this is so heinous
that like i would have just preferred to use your kitchen to cook it myself yeah it's pretty much
always like also like either they're constantly harassing you. So you get annoyed or they're just like never checking on you at all.
I mean, a lot of it also is like the type of people that they hire for waiters at certain places.
Sure.
Just like, yeah, it's like a highly degenerate job.
It's like I don't want to deal with DMV workers.
I don't want to deal with TSA workers.
And when you replace all of the waiters with that same type of person, I don't want to go out to eat now either. Right? Like, it's just, and it's not, this isn't even just me doing like a dog whistle. It's like, there's like a specific type of, even like, somewhat, like like maybe they're in college uh but like there's like a very snarky type of like hispanic gay guy that frequently works service jobs uh and also now works at the
dmv and you're just like i just like they like actively have like contempt for all like uh
customers at their business and you're just like i just don't want to deal with
you i don't want to interact with you like you're really unpleasant they've they've like really
automated like most of the dmv here now i can do everything online basically unless it's like brand
new um idle registration or something that's pretty nice i haven't been in a while
Idle registration or something.
It's pretty nice.
I haven't been in a while.
VV says,
have you considered we actually just end up going to war?
We actually had a whole discussion
about how that's about to happen, probably.
Yeah.
Before he came in.
We're pretty war-pilled, it seems like.
I'm pretty war-pilled.
You know who's been a war guy is Kyle Gavis for years now. He's been saying the war is coming.
Kyle has
the sort of gold bug
warmonger energy in some ways.
He does.
Maybe defense companies
are a good
asset here.
I mean, they're not going up
is it possible to like buy
well I don't know actually I don't really even have any on my watch list
I mean the German defense companies went up a lot right
like Ryan Metal
I think you want to buy like German steel makers
kind of stuff
because if there's war
it always starts in Europe
because Europe is just one of those places
just too many cultures like close together i guess yeah and just breaking out easier
yeah and also it's like it's like lower stakes wars it's like proxy wars and stuff
like lots of the population is like used to like fighting and dying for like relatively small reasons so
the china threatening taiwan for how long i mean depends on your point of view
the i think the issue right now in the u.s is like people don't really understand the history
of china taiwan that well so it's not well taught so yeah but it's just like nobody knows what taiwan i'm
starting to see people on the timeline though now that like taiwan is becoming like more globally
relevant people are making these like long explainer threads on it but like uh it's really
hit or miss like it may be correct information or it may just be like and it's like i don't really
know the history of taiwan myself but it's like I don't really know the history
of Taiwan myself but it's like I've lived here and I've asked some people about basic stuff and
sometimes you'll just have like totally random like uh you know someone's trying to paint like
a picture of what it is like living in Taiwan or something you're like well like I don't know
that seems really wrong like I would guess that you've never been here if I had to wager something
yeah it's definitely true that it's like not taught
here like i have heard very little about taiwan in general so i'm like general chinese civil war
stuff and like china world war ii history it's very poorly taught in the us probably because
it doesn't really fit the narratives very well in the us. So if you were taught about Bostonians financing Hitler,
it wouldn't be very great for nation building, right?
You're kind of like, wait, why do we let these banks do that?
But in China, this is a bit similar.
It's like, well, first we let Japan do this stuff,
and then later when they attacked us, we decided to bomb them.
I think some of it is taught, do this stuff and then later we when they attacked us we decided to bomb them you know it's like i
think some of it is taught but i think you know the american support for one regime over another
is well as wonders to not this point right like they supported the shah in iran and then got btfo'd
they supported the nationalists in china then got btfo'd it's kind of like, they kind of chose the losing side each time because they underestimated
populism in each time.
And then Taiwan
is basically the retreat area
of those people, right?
The people that they retreated from that and essentially
ended up there.
Didn't they just kind of fund both sides
though?
In Iran's case?
China, I guess. I guess i mean china not really i mean so so so the the long history of china is like the original founding father figure is this guy called sun yatsen right
you may have heard of this name um and he's recognized in like China and Taiwan as the Satoshi of modern China, like the Republic China.
So that's why in the Taiwan name, you have Republic of China.
And then in China, you have People's Republic of China, right?
So it's like Bitcoin, Bitcoin cash, basically.
But they both recognize that Satoshi is the founder.
So Sun Yat-senun he was actually basically this like
fundraiser for for stuff so he went overseas a lot in like the us and japan and he fundraised
for like teen dynasty revolution uh and also just for like okay we're gonna you can invest in the
in like the new form of government in china once the dynasty ends. So he was always like very outward facing. He didn't actually
govern much at all. But he thought of like helping like create that. And then Chiang Kai-shek was his
disciple. So he was his direct descent, like his direct number two guy. And famously, they both
married into the same family of three sisters so like they were essentially like became
family through that and these sisters both studied at wallesley in near boston and so it's a very
americanized spirit basically and so america was like infatuated with chiang kai shak basically
and thought like this is awesome like like china's gonna be like just like america you know
it's gonna be like you know the values are the same it's awesome whatever and then uh so so that's why there was so much support for
the nationalist party because they just thought well they're like they're capitalists they're
they're aligned blah blah blah and so that party ended up losing and having to retreat to taiwan
and then after they lost uh america kind of was like well you already lost i can't support you much more than this because like you just have all
people against you so i see but which i guess is why like we're kind of um biased towards taiwan
independence and stuff like that yeah yeah so so you know like 1953 during korean war and then later on like there was a tylen street
conflict where you know um the mainland was like why don't we just go in and like take the like
the final island back right like why do we let these guys like live on you know like it's like
it's like in the marvel film like why do you let your enemy like live on for like one more day in
his like cave you know you can take him out don't let him come
back later and take over because keep in mind that this time like taiwan has the seat in the
un right it has the seat of official china in the un because like mainland china was not recognized
as a state until nixon in 1971 right uh like basically there was like a risk there like it
was like a perceived risk yeah so
so mainland china basically was like i don't really care if you and recognizes me as a real
government or not like i i control beijing i control the capital right and i control the
rest of the country and then chen kai-shek was like just like like you know he's kind of like
the zelensky basically he's like give me more money give me more troops help me make nukes
and i'll come back
and i'll win again and the u.s was like i'm like i need to cut loss here like i don't care anymore
but then they still you know did some defense where you know when when china was considering
taking taiwan in the mid-1950s you know like the u.s basically said like we'll use nukes if you do
that something like that and then china was like you know what that doesn't matter anyway let's just let them be right you know uh you you give your enemy like a retreating
like you know place to retreat to so that essentially is history of taiwan but then so
that's why taiwan is republic of china and then china is people's republic of china so you have
this like um um like naming similarity and then so so KMT is very pro reunification historically because
they've always thought of themselves as part of China, just the losing side. Right. But for at
least 20 years after even losing, they thought they could still win again. Right. Like even in
the 80s, Chiang Kai-shek was like building a nuclear weapons program and uh america actually shut down
his nuclear weapons program because like we really don't want you to have nukes like just not good
for the states you know safety of the world because by then like china u.s became extremely
closed because nixon the whole nixon what nixon did when he went was he wanted to create the
sino-soviet split because china wanted the u.s wanted china on their side against soviet union
and they said we don't really care about taiwan anymore we just want to like you know be allies with china also
like all the companies like we can do manufacturing in china we make so much money so then you have
like this like goldilocks period of like kind of u.s relations where it's like you know they thought
it's awesome so it's a long history there so so, so it's not like, yeah, that's actually, and, and part of the point is that Nixon, as the conditions for the opening up of China that Nixon did, it's the one China policy, which is to recognize that there is only one China.
And we can, I see.
like it's a bit ambiguous but it's like saying like it does not matter which side you think is
winning you have to recognize that all all this land is part of one country right basically you
have like a two you have like a two government system but you but you have one country so that's
like a condition that's like the basic condition of the of the opening up of china in the first
place so i think that's why it's like it's a part of history that like america probably doesn't
teach that well now because it just doesn't serve the purpose but yeah it's kind of like how like
yeah i mean yeah i definitely never got taught that in school at all like they didn't even touch
on that so is it like um do we we we don't recognize Taiwan as a country?
The U.S. does not?
The U.S. does not recognize.
Only like 12 countries in the world recognize.
It's like Palau and like Vanuatu of like small islands.
Like if U.S. had recognized, then the Nixon, then Nixon could not have opened up the Chinese market.
China would have stayed closed,
like a North Korea-type country.
But was there ever a period where we recognized it?
Or we were just sort of like...
Yeah, exactly.
So up until the end of the Chinese Civil War,
until Nixon,
not only was Taiwan recognized as a country,
the Taiwanese government was recognized
as the official government of all of China.
Right, yeah.
You had like 20 years where Chiang Kai-shek is going to the UN as if he
represents China.
It's like Craig Wright.
Craig Wright is going to like court saying he represents Bitcoin.
It's like,
you know,
and the community might be like,
well,
does he actually recognize it?
Right.
It's like a,
it's like a kingdom in exile situation.
Right.
It's like a leader in exile situation.
So that makes a lot of sense.
But, but so the kmt actually nowadays is pro china because they just said you know what
mainland guys won and the government and the economy is great so let's just forget about this
and do business now and like is that who's like currently in control no that's now who's not it
so the dbp is in control dbp is is pro is more pro independence than kmt
because the dbp is like okay it's been like many many years now and we and we live independently
we have independent government and we don't want to give in to like you know so we want our
autonomies right because in the 90s there was a deal offered by Deng Xiaoping to Taiwan, which is like a recognition of one China.
And then it was like an enshrinement of like one country, two systems.
You can run your own system.
And generally speaking, the Taiwanese did not really go for that.
They just thought, we don't need to do this deal.
this deal um so is like um so i guess if the dbp's in control like public sentiment is generally
pretty still it's more it's more pro separatist than if it's like a kmt controlled right but
it's like again what's one of those things like 55 45 kind of things gotcha so it could swing
like at some point it can it's it's swung back and forth. DPP has had
strong support recently.
But it's like
it's just politics.
It's a democracy, right?
I mean, it kind of seems like
has the KMT been in control before then?
Because it seems like almost...
Yeah, it's been in control for many years.
But the actual
unification failed or something? Like, it's voted
on? Because, like, from my perspective,
like, how would they, if they gained control, how would
they not just, like...
So the KMT has been,
so the KMT has been in control, right,
for almost, like, the longest time.
So literally what happened was, the KMT
is Chiang Kai-shek's party.
It's the Nationalist Party. So when they lost the Civil War, when they're about to lose it, is Chiang Kai-shek's party. It's the Nationalist Party. So when they
lost the civil war, when they're about to lose it, what Chiang Kai-shek did was he basically
forced evacuated all the Japanese who were in Taiwan at the time because Taiwan was a Japanese
base for a long time. He kicked them all out. And then he said, this is going to be my base.
This is going to be like my final retreating position, like militarily.
And so there were indigenous Taiwanese people and like Fuzianese people in Taiwan who had been there for generations earlier.
And he essentially said, this is now like, I now rule your province, basically, right?
Like I now rule your island.
So that's why you have this concept of like, like, why children and been children, which
means like the native pre like the pre the
pre the nationalist coming and post the nationalist coming right so essentially the the pre-nationalist
coming people they had been there like under japanese rule you know most of them spoke japanese
most of them you know were also like not a huge fan of the nationalist coming and just ruling
because it became martial law like they were just like like literally taking control by force right um
so you have that kind of a split and so that's why like most of the kmt support is from the
guys who actually just came over and then most of the dpp support is from the people who are there
pre the nationalists coming. Right.
Because for the DPP, like the most pro-independence argument for the DPP is like,
okay, there's been tons of these people there pre the nationalists coming.
And these people were first under Taiwanese rule.
And then before, I mean, under Japanese rule.
And before that, they were like the Qing Dynasty tributary.
And before that, there were Portuguese involved. But this is like just an island right and the nationalists one wave of that but then so so they claim to like an antecedent which is okay we were independent longer before
we we've been our own island before and so that's kind of that position it's like you know the
nationalist history is less relevant here it's like you know this is just like a ruling army
that came and
ruled us for like 50 years but it doesn't matter taiwan's independence is separate from that
concept so that's like the dbp argument um and that's why they'll they'll emphasize a lot of
like the japanese influence because they'll they'll say well you know like why is hokkaido part of
japan and like taiwan is not like so there's a lot of this stuff that's like kind of um like
another strong point that they'll make not strong but another point they'll make is like so there's a lot of this stuff that's like kind of um like another strong point that
they'll make not strong but another point they'll make is like the there was the treaty of cairo
right where going into japanese surrender they're like okay what lands belong to what if the japanese
were to surrender in world war ii and the the concept there was okay hokkaido they decided you
know what no one's ruling this stuff anyways just Just let Japan keep it, even though it was like Native Americans there basically before that. And then they said,
like in the Cairo agreement, it says Taiwan should be independent. Like it should be under
its own rule. So it's like the TPP guys will point to that and say, look, it's in the Cairo
agreement. But then the Chinese will argue, well, that was ambiguous because it was simply the
conditions for Japan surrendering. Like just because japan started it doesn't mean
that china accepts that this is now not part but there's all a lot of these arguments too which is
like a lot of stuff the time will say too is like the new tpp guy was like saying well you know like
actually russia took tons of king dynasty land in the north like all of east iberia you used to be
part of king dynasty so why are you not taking that
land back to like why is mongolia like mongolia used to be part of teen dynasty too became this
buffer state post world war ii but it's like why don't you take that land first back if you if
you're so revanchist that you think that all this land should be coming like the teen dynasty should
be restored basically right um so yeah it's kind of interesting that with this dynamic, I'm pretty sure that the US has separate
sanction levels for Taiwan versus mainland China.
It's totally separated.
They have separate tariff levels.
So that's almost like a recognition that it's not China.
Historically, they've always done I mean
they sell I mean the US sells weapons to Taiwan they saw right then if they hadn't sold arms like
like Chiang Kai-shek would have no support right he's basically lived off American support
it really is just like the Zelensky situation basically exactly well yeah his yeah his precursor
was basically the best he basically ico'd like republican china basically he basically raised
the funds for the teen dynasty overgrowth uh because wasn't ukraine basically a similar
situation where it was like part of russia before and it was like uh yeah it's part of soviet union and then khrushchev was a ukrainian native and
like um there's some some funny history there too but like like essentially the the crimea region
uh actually used to be considered part of soviet union and then when khrushchev was
was the uh like was the leader he said well why don't we just make Crimea part of Ukraine?
Because it's so close anyways.
And at that time, it didn't matter because it's all so good unit.
It'd be like drawing from one state to another when states don't matter.
And then later when USSR disintegrated, Crimea then is like, oh, wait, Crimea is part of Ukraine now.
and so uh that's a connection it's a little bit contentious for that reason um but yeah i mean
And so it's a little bit contentious for that reason.
i mean i think the ukraine kind of i mean the ukraine stuff i'm not as up to date on like but
probably should get some guests to talk about that if you want but like it's just a funny it's a funny
pattern that the us kind of has where like if there's some kind of like land disagreement we
seem to fund it or jump on it.
I think it's just like
they use it as
a general way of operation.
It's not necessarily even that bad or good.
It's just the way they operate it.
I think US post-World War II
they wanted it to be seen as the winners
and also not as imperialist power.
Even though they obviously were to some extent,
so I think they prefer to play that power game in, like, a soft power way.
So, but...
But it was just too many fronts as well, right?
So...
Hmm. You probably start selling water filters.
This is making me think I should brush up on history pretty much like
especially if we're going into like a war situation probably useful to study there's a
really good book called uh china and japan facing history it's by a harvard professor
um it's from an american perspective it's a really really good book um it just goes and looks at um like China and Japan interactions over 2,000 years of history
um and he has this thesis that like you know it's like intense rivalry and then periods of intense
cooperation and intense rivalry and he looks at like it's a great it's a great way to learn the
history of like Chiang Kai-shek of like Taiwan stuff of like like early Buddhism stuff
it's really good it's very readable very readable book I'll check it out Enzo was
talking about how you want to do a deep dive into Japanese history yesterday so
kind of relevant yeah and so Enzo's thesis was basically that um everyone has said for a long time that they think that Japan is like an outlier in terms of cultural norms.
And it's not. It's like, oh, this can't be used as a predictive measure for like anything else going on in the world because the Japanese are just so weird, bro.
His thesis was that those people are largely wrong. And Japan was just such a leading indicator that that everyone failed to price in the Japanization of
everything because people said this for about birth rates for a long time right
they were like oh the US birth rates won't follow the pattern of Japanese
birth rates because of XYZ differences and then it like uh that one didn't pan out but i mean like japanese
bursaries are going up now if anything so but a lot of that's due to immigration also so
it's kind of um it's kind of weird to me how like people look at japan as this example of like
nationalism that works and like you got to keep out immigrants but japan itself is having to bring in tons of immigration now so it's like it's like late where is like the
immigration coming from mostly india indonesia vietnam china korea i mean it's pretty massive
yeah it's getting to the point where like i i just assume that people are going to start getting pissed off soon i don't think they will for at least another 10 years because some of
these like there's like hundreds of thousands of abandoned homes in the countryside right
there's like there there's not enough people the average age of a farmer is like 70 years old in
japan so it depends really heavily on like whether the uh whether immigrants use those though right like
that is always historically the big issue is like uh everyone's like ah our people stop farming we
need to bring in people to like farm these farms and then you bring in people and they're like i
don't want to farm the farms either no i mean i mean they have relatively high standards of
assimilation right like people learn the language there um and you know they intermarry very quickly
so i think that there's not as much i mean first of all like for chinese and korean it's very easy
to assimilate you cannot tell the difference after like one one year um like if you go to most of the
big investment banks in japan like half the leadership is are like chinese japanese because
only the chinese japanese want to do that job like that they want to like do like high power finance and work 100 hours a week um and then you
look at a lot of the tech stuff like Masayoshi's son is actually Korean Japanese right like he he's
of Korean descent because again like the Koreans will take more like risks basically like tech
stuff so dissimilar pretty easily I think then if you go down like vietnamese indonesian there's still
a lot of assimilation as well there's quite a few examples of like when like a japanese company
like a local company they they need to um like modernize or they need to like get someone to
to do the other thing but they'll have these like apprentice systems and so some indonesian kid will
just go there become the apprentice and because he's like way more hard working because he's an
immigrant he will literally just like help like run that business onward right whereas
if he tried to find someone japanese to do it there's not enough people and a lot of people
maybe are going to the cities and then just playing like a computer game all day so yeah
so you you do get that like um you do get that like vitality from immigration that they so they
still benefit mostly from it
now but i think there can be a big pushback later but i think they have standards for
assimilation that are quite high similar to how america had very high standards for assimilation
as well in the past which also helped make immigration easier to handle for people i think
the problem the u.s became like you allow these enclaves and like you especially in europe where
you allow these like totally different systems of behavior and then it became like okay we're
getting colonized actually by immigrants as opposed to like they're coming and like
integrating assimilating yeah yeah like if you're playing baseball and you're like eating apple pie
and you're like christian or whatever then then it becomes like okay you know this is good so
And then it becomes like, okay, you know, this is good.
So, I don't know.
But Japan has to do immigration now.
They have no other choice.
So, do you think this will affect the real estate market in Japan?
This similar way that it has here?
Like it's going to go up due to immigration?
Real estate market in Japan is literally ridiculous.
It's very hot.
It's one of the only hot markets in real estate.
Wait, it's actually going up? Don of the only hot markets in real estate wait it's actually
going up don't they kind of have a problem with like um earthquakes like yeah you're reading the
buildings it's like non-viable after a while this is this well this is the problem with a lot of
like rural buildings uh i think japan in general i i don't think they have nearly as strict of building codes as uh other places in like us
the west more broadly i don't know what we want to classify that as
but uh it's very much so unregulated compared to here yeah
japanese countryside is absurdly cheap yes you have to do more on your own but it's like
it's like a outback it's like yeah it's honestly a really like nice uh it's it's like a very novel
place you know like rural japan is one of those places where you go and you're like uh
pop like i actually have not seen this shit before honestly i was thinking about doing like a diy
like like giving like a diy course on like how you could as an american move to japan
and like run your own farm right like yeah there's there's a guy i've seen who's done this
uh and he has a video series about it um but he doesn't give you quite like how to do it yourself
but like you could you could do this we could actually do this Lucas as like a project where you just
like show how you would do it because it's actually like you don't need any
money to do this you literally just have to yeah I would totally I would totally
raccoon it out in Japan becoming a Japanese farmer for a year that'd be
really funny yeah it's a lot of hard work but it's like that's why I like I
wonder about the manufacturing stuff because like you know you have these
are options to people and some people are doing it but like you know it's a lot of hard work but it's like that's why like i wonder about the manufacturing stuff because like you know you have these options to people and some people are doing it but like
you know it's literally free um so we are getting to like a enough of a like an inflection point
with the weird goofy self-sustainability things where like uh you can't actually literally off
grid everything now especially with starlo i mean just not being always online is the biggest hack, right?
I mean, we obviously are always online, but like in Japan, the thing is like the people in the suburbs, they're like moving into the cities.
They're moving from the countryside in the cities that they can just like eat ramen and like be in like a small condo, right?
And basically play games all day, you like they'll be a shut in basically
and then the only people that want to be like in the countryside are people like you know if you're
comparing it from first america where you can't afford the land and then you're like holy i
could just like be given land here as long as i take care of it it's it's very much like the old
immigration patterns where like okay like move to the us and you can like move west and then just
take whatever land you want right it's like the cowboy mentality yeah like you know you can bum it out in new
york city or you can go to like kansas or something like run a farm so you know i think
midwesterners would like this stuff but if you're like a coastal guy you're still just going to go
to tokyo and like rent a condo and then like get bored of it in a year so yeah i think a lot of it's hard when you get when you look at like the sustainability and
scale of it like that's the main thing for me is like uh i've already sort of like conquered what
like the uh micro scale like self-sustainable ecosystem looks like at my first house in terms
of like okay like you have a little garden patch and you can grow this and it's like uh
okay you cover your carbs for this you can't you can't grow this one so you go to a farm and get
this one uh yeah like uh like like if i live there long enough i eventually just start trying to scale
it and becoming like a like an agricultural uh behemoth right but then this also inherently you know you get into like
uh the runescape thing the optimization game where it's like it's always just it's always
just optimal to grow whatever your best roi crop in the region is uh where i just like when i'm
doing it for like one house it's like i just buy i like i'm growing tomatoes even though they're
not the most efficient thing because like tomatoes just taste much better homegrown versus like, if you buy them, like you,
you actually cannot buy like good tomatoes in the US unless you go to like a farmer's market,
which now largely are scams also, or you go find a farmer who gives you non-farmers market 6x markup
prices. But then why are they doing that in the first place the answer
is usually because they're amish so now you have to go 90 minutes into some sort of amish compound
to find somebody who doesn't know about price arbitrages yeah like there's crazy arbs in japan
like i think shoku he's done this thing he bought bought a distressed ski mountain near Niseko, like an hour away.
He did this thing where he bought this farm in Hokkaido that was like,
you basically get to own it after some period of time.
If you run it or something like that, you get to operate it.
So there's a lot of these operate to own deals now.
I think the Tokyo ARB is gone where you used to be able to like buy on like
25, like 20 X leverage, like, and it's non recourse.
So you just put down 5%, and then you can like buy a lot of stuff and like buy stuff
that's not built yet.
And that stuff all went up a lot.
So people made like huge ROIs.
So that's gone in Tokyo, but in Osaka, they have that now.
So people are all now buying in Osaka and like playing that catch up play.
So a really good like foreigner market because they're just like making it really easy and
you get PR and you can get permanent residency there now in like two years.
It's a point based system.
So you have skills, whatever, they'll give you permanent residency um so it's it's not honestly a lot of chinese people i know
have moved to japan in the last three years um off so um
maybe we start homesteading now that's what you do when the war the war starts you can do that
That's what you do when the war starts.
You can do that.
Feels like you should maybe start before the war.
Maybe, yeah.
Probably after the war they close the borders.
I am kind of curious with the war.
If we do get a world war,
who would be even aligned with the U.S. at this point?
You know what I mean?
Before, there was the two different sides, but at this point it's like the u.s versus
everybody it feels like like how do you think that would like play out like what who's on
whose side i mean i think they would just take everything in the western hemisphere
and no one would stop them like who would care like china's non-interference that they wouldn't
care um russia would not care that they would just take more
it's like a risk game where they just like expand out in their own like close directions
i think it probably makes our relations with like russia is probably euphoric in that case
because now there's a bunch of like weird uh like gas pipelines and like energy deals that they had to like work around the eu in uh if
it's the us and they just say yeah you can just like spray gas with us they're like yeah we'll
pay you or you can pay us to run this pipeline uh they're probably like oh my god that's amazing
so basically like us just expands and then like it just ends up being like U.S., Russia, China, basically, Japan.
Again, and everything in Africa is just like on their own, obviously.
I mean, it doesn't matter anyways.
Yeah, it's like China has Africa.
U.S. gets Europe.
Russia, I don't know.
Russia gets half of Europe. I mean, Europe, like Iron Curtain, I don't know. Russia gets half of Europe.
I mean, Europe, like Iron Curtain, maybe, you know.
Yeah, yeah.
Claim the other half.
It just seems like US and Russia probably, like, have a high incentive to work together
on this one.
Yeah, they can just carve it up.
They can do an agreement to the Iron Curtain lines. Oh, like, that's why, like, the to the iron curtain lines oh like that's why like the
eu's we army really hard but they have a massive standing army soon like europe's not gonna go
down without a fight either so that's why like you know it's not that simple but
possible warfare would be the funniest thing like imagine imagine imagine right wing twitter discourse over uh u.s going to war with france
it's like genuinely i think things did already get like uh really i know yeah it's like that's
a happening right like we went something happens yeah like quickly
like this would have not been even like in the conversation before
well it's like the whole thing with uh the hundred year floods right
hundred year wars yeah it's like we we had a long period of no wars, so there must be a lot soon, I guess, unless we just stop wars.
But humans are good at wars.
We like wars.
Hmm.
It does make you wonder if that's just how they restart the Ponzi every time.
Like once it gets too wrecked.
It's just sort of intentional
i don't know i mean did anyone understand the economy for the last 30 years
was it real i don't know people on the internet said it was fake and then they just did all this and then it went away
so maybe it was fake
like maybe it's only real if you believe
in the economy
and then if you don't believe in the economy it's not real
anymore
yeah real
is just always such a loaded term to like argue
about
wouldn't argue about it
just like is what term to like argue about i wouldn't know you about it
just like is what it is he's probably sitting here like i'm pretty sure the economy is real like it's like uh it does it does get to the point where you have like financed uh zero percent interest
payments for long enough.
But you start thinking, something about this isn't real, right?
Yeah.
I mean, if you had fiat collapse of major economies, you haven't really had that before.
And at least since World War II, like Deutsche Mark type stuff.
at least since World War II,
right, like Deutsche Mark type stuff.
So if you got that happening,
then the economy quickly becomes not real.
Because you'd be like a dollar,
like you have a lot of dollars,
but then you realize, wait,
but these aren't worth much.
Inflation is super high.
So then you rush to buy stuff,
and then you're like, wait, this stuff also sucks.
And then you have capital control,
it gets locked, right?
That's the argentino playbook
i mean us talking about like uh the possibility of global war and war gaming it out on stream
might also just be like a huge giga top sign and then everything just stops doing anything
tomorrow right like historically i mean that would be great, honestly. I mean, if you got capital controls to such an extent.
So in Argentina, like, I knew a guy there who, the way he tried to get money out, he basically started to, like, fly planes in.
Like, he had people fly planes in, and he would try to buy the plane with cash and then fly it out.
So, like, he would just basically, like, using that as a way to get pesos into, like, hard money.
But it's, like, people are like people have to be really creative um i do think capital control is coming in the u.s um i've seen a few
tweets but it's capital control just like you can't get the money out of the u.s you can't wire
it out like most countries have stable coins stable coins yeah stable coins but like hard assets
I'm saying like yeah I guess this was like the Bitcoin thing right like you wanted to spend your
Bitcoin and it was like well okay like I need my Bitcoin for cash and I don't want to make a Spain
run yeah so now we're like uh I'm gonna to go, I'm going to go find a guy who accepts
cryptocurrency for cars on Facebook marketplace.
And then.
In a true World War II scenario, like the US government will seize the Bitcoin
in the, in the Bitcoin ETFs, right?
Like they did with gold.
Is that like, that's, is that bearish or bullish?
It's very bullish.
It's very bullish. If you don't have your Bitcoin in an ETF.
You have it in normal.
Well, yes and no.
And then the government may just dump this Bitcoin to pay for armies and stuff.
So yes and no.
Long-term very bullish.
Capital controls also sort of seems bullish, BTC, but also it kills all of the off like on ramps. So that's hard to reason about as well.
Very hard to reason about.
It's definitely easier to get money out of crypto than into crypto.
Yeah, that's definitely true.
Well, I don't know.
Why do you say that exactly
like i always buy something on facebook marketplace
i mean like i was agreeing at first because like there's like ac limit but then i realized i can just wire like as much as i want intobase or whatever. So it seems pretty much the same either way.
I just wire out or wire in.
Or you mean like in a situation where there's capital controls and the on-ramps are gone?
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
Yeah, that's I guess you're definitely better off having it outside of the US in that case.
Like in BTC.
I guess this is also like assuming that BTC isn't a CIA project to begin with and they're just
sitting on a million of Satoshi's Bitcoin.
Yeah, Bitcoin is the ultimate honeypot.
When all the money is in the Bitcoin ETF, then they say, okay, thank you.
Capital gains tax achieved well tax
we are kind of getting some relative strength again guys
great side
oh yeah coins up coins barring some i'm just kind of looking at bitcoin compared to like smp yeah
this was sort of rough eth just like crushing the 1500 level was really rough i think
yeah didn't even like bounce really it had like yeah it's so tough for it to bounce now because
people like it's uh as it goes down you get d5 liquidations each time right so you have this like non-stop
like cascading yeah because we're also in the range now we're just like nobody expected it to go
at this point in like any cycle really yeah so we're now down where like there's actually a bunch of like large liquid capital
that has liquidations here yeah and now is like the worst time to be like
covering your long that's going the wrong way yeah
pretty good
and i think everyone has wanted to buy it has already bought it.
And everyone who hasn't bought it doesn't want to buy it because they actually think
it's Nokia or Blackberry or Linux.
There's actually like five analogies you can give all which are pretty good.
The year Linux desktop.
I think I don't know if I like the Linux comparison.
I guess maybe it does make sense because Linux is actually used a ton, but it doesn't make
any money.
Yeah.
The Ethereum Foundation is like the open source guys.
Red Hat is like ConsenSys, which can't make money but is early um yeah i don't know
we're gradually running out of things to bullpost though which means that uh
we are either nearing full economic collapse or a reversal right shove into like five
collapse or a reversal right shove into like five years i wonder how viewers feel when they
see sewers like a real they click in and it's like i'm just like talking about how fucked everything
is i i i do think now is a good level to buy bitcoin in the next you know from from a few
days ago to like the next two three weeks i think you'll be up on those most likely.
But I don't think it's a given that like if stocks nuke further,
Bitcoin needs to go to like 20K or something.
I don't think that's a given.
If Saylor does have to sell, then we're all cooked.
But I don't think he has to.
Yeah, that's super bearish.
But the thing is, by 2027, and it's kicking the can down,
but what happens if you actually get 2027 and 2028?
But then you have to do it.
Yeah, he's just kind of like he has to start selling.
Well, he has to pay interest.
He has to pay dollars.
So then people will be watching the Sailor T-wops.
I guess like, yeah, he's making a gamble
that it's going to be like up a ton
by the time he has to start paying back the interest.
Yeah.
And then people who are buying his thing,
they also are making that gamble with him, right?
They're saying, you know,
maybe I manage other people's money
and I think that this is the best risk adjusted play i mean and they've been right
they've been rewarded for it so you know
it has some similarities ever grand china the property stock which was like
like people were saying to short it very very early and then just gigamoon and it became like a cult and they built all this like crazy projects everywhere um
the dude for a while became like one of the richest people in the world
um but it's like it's built on this assumption that people will buy the properties that are
getting built um so here it's like you know he's making the assumption that there's like a big
lane demand for Bitcoin.
He's essentially front running it through this project, right?
He's buying so much of it early and using it as this like, like this vehicle.
So it's a really smart play.
If like, this is the main instrument that people use to access Bitcoin.
If you're in fixed income markets, you can buy his bonds, right?
Now, if Bitcoin goes up a lot, you make more like he invented that it's pretty crazy it's like almost
like if you were to buy a property but bitcoin went up you'd somehow make more money like if
someone invented that that would also be a really cool property to sell right so but no one's figured
that out but he managed to figure it out for fixed income and equities. It almost feels a lot like when they were like repackaging
bags and stuff.
That's what I was going to say. It's really smart. I mean, smartness is a non-duality.
The 3AC is also really smart until it's really dumb. So it's like one of those things
like, you know, when I see Sailor on the cover of Forbes as like
financial alchemist, like that should give me a little bit of a
shiver of my spine like
that's yeah definitely yeah like alchemy doesn't the the alchemist didn't manage to turn this up
into gold in the end so yeah that's true i wonder if he like like chose that word
intentionally or something must like for it's like that thing they always tell you
what's about to happen.
The Illuminati or whatever.
The Illuminati were trying to tell you to sell.
The Illuminati.
I had a friend who saw that
when he saw that cover
because he's like, this just can't end well.
It has generally been
a gigatop indicator.
The Forbes crypto covers.
Yeah, like it wasn't great with the SBF thing either, was it?
You guys want to call it? It's been like three hours.
Yeah, let's call it. Yeah, I'm down to call this.
Cool. All right, take care later guys godspeed guys
