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Synquote Market Discussion
Recorded: May 20, 2025 Duration: 0:46:27Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed the current market trends, focusing on BTC's potential to signal a new growth phase, ETH's performance, and the emerging dynamics of altcoins. The conversation highlighted the importance of monitoring market flows and the impact of large buyers on price movements, as well as the competitive landscape of token launch platforms.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. all right mic check mic check
all good cool yeah main should be joining um but i think we can get started in case he's
caught up in something and uh you know if he hops on he hops on Yeah, so let's dive right in.
I think this week, not all that much has happened.
The topics we've got on the list are just near and midterm market outlook.
I want to talk a little bit about ETH's performance.
It looked like it had some more life in it after the move up the last couple of weeks.
But is that a short period of performance or is that going to be a trend?
Someone else to watch and then just answering any questions you guys have.
So if you guys have any questions throughout this process or throughout this space, just request speaker access, we'll get you on.
So we can start with market outlook. Any thoughts on where we are right now?
Yeah, I mean, not a whole lot going on right now.
We've just been kind of faking out the highs.
And this kind of weird behavior is, I think, more or less expected around such a pivotal level.
All-time high level is the most important level
on any chart, really in any market.
At least it takes over everyone's focus
when we're within close proximity to it
because the move through it implies
there's probably a significant shift
that's going to occur or potentially sets up with BTC sending a clear signal that the high timeframe trend is back on to anyone that is not already in this market and that is outside this market and maybe has written off this market since the more recent high going back to the beginning of the year post-inauguration.
Yeah, so flows up here are kind of weird.
This whole move, though, has been supported by pretty persistent spot buyers,
and there's good evidence that there's some new, very large buyers of BTC on Ibit and just through the spot market that are possibly following similarly to Sailor.
And this has probably supported the market decently because BTC's, I was just talking about this in other spaces,
The float is so tiny that any spot buying in this market that's a material amount of size, nine figures and up, is going to have an impact compared to a large cap stock with a ton of turnover.
The float of BTC, the available BTC on the market, is really, really low compared to the total supply. So it looks like there's some evidence of that because there's like no signs of any overheating in the derivative markets. No signs that there is like a big basis trade being
put on for the new IBIT volume. So there's no corresponding increase in the CME activity that
would really, I think, build that case. Analyzed basis is still low quarterly futures annualized basis is still relatively at the lows
um so muted response there and then applied volatility is in terms of this percentile it's
it is the lowest it normally is over the year so it is the lowest one percent of trading days
um which is really weird because btc is right off the all-time high the last few times that we've
been like on the cusp of making a new high implied volatility has been pricing higher and getting
richer with price so this one looks unique it doesn't look like really anyone is that excited
although crypto twitter was calling for all-time highs before we put in a small correction the other day.
But yeah, I mean, it's an interesting spot because stocks have been trading really well
since the April lows.
And I think BTC has been tracking stocks, actually.
So intraday, the NQ and the es been tracking quite quite tight actually
the nq looks like it it looks like there's a little bit of a lag right between the nq and
btc so when nq drops like 100 plus points it looks like there's just a couple minutes before
btc ends up following the same exact price action um but yeah alter the leading alts. I've given back a lot of ground.
I think when it comes to alts, uh, the place we're at right now is like the worst possible
place because you really have to, it is really a gamble when it comes to picking the alt
that is going to one.
So if, if let's say BTC corrects up here, all alts are going to get smashed.
You know, when BTC sneezes a couple thousand points intraday, alts respond really sensitively.
And then also through the all-time high, you have basically the same effect across the board for most alts where liquidity drains out of the alts and rushes into BTC and everyone piles in on the breakout trade.
So you get kind of a lose-lose situation
with where we are right now.
So yeah, I mean, we'll see.
It's really, it's a switch, not a dial at this level.
I keep using that phrase.
It's so binary.
Like, I don't think you have to press too hard up here
because like if you're selling, right?
If you're short, if you're hedged, if you've de-risked,
like you're in validation to get back into the trade to close out the short or to redeploy capital is only 3% away.
Very clearly when we're through the highs, that's one of the highest EV setups you could take across any market.
I wouldn't consider the first minute above the high or the first five minutes above the high to be that actionable, but if we're closing through the highs on a daily basis,
it's as good as it gets in terms of a continuation play.
So, yeah.
Yeah, that's an interesting point on how alts would respond
to either a slight drop.
I think we all agree that in that case, we usually get hit pretty
hard. But if BTC breaks all-time highs versus just going up a few percent below all-time highs,
you still think it's pretty set that liquidity will bleed from alt into BTC? Because I think what we've seen recently is more that
when BTC makes a small move up, alts make a big move up. I guess here you're talking about a
scenario where BTC makes a big move up above all-time highs and kind of starts off on a new
trend. Yeah, I think this is a completely different situation. I think that for the most part,
everything else is, yeah is beta to BTC.
You've had consistent group of leaders, like your 4chan memes,
just memes as a whole, and AI a distant second.
But I do think that through the all-time highs,
we'll see the same effect we saw through last all-time highs,
where, yeah, you have your leaders that absolutely mark up.
So anything that looks good structurally is probably a safe bet, but I think anything that
is already quite overextended and looking a little bit top heavy, at least locally,
like some of these are, some of these trends in alts are structurally really sound, but they just
haven't had like any momentum reset yet and momentum resets usually are really good opportunities to get involved again
so whether you know more recently some of them traded back to their you know baseline 20 period
moving average and that was probably one of the best buying opportunities over the last week
um i was talking about this opportunity for like two weeks leading up to it. And then the next best opportunity is like,
you don't have to be an RSI trader or a momentum oscillator trader to know
that like after the first period of these things being overbought,
that when it resets,
you just get a flurry of algo activity picking up again.
So it could be like the RSI on the daily trading back towards the 50 line.
If you're using like a CCI commodity channel index, that might be the 20 line.
If you're using, you know, a Z score oscillator, then it would be, you know, the zero baseline
for like a 20 period look back.
And these tend to be really good buying opportunities.
So a lot of alts are really well above those levels and are putting in some price action
that is, I think, just kind of a display
that is they're struggling up here
while BTC is kind of figuring this out.
So, I mean, if you look at the alt market cap
and just alt performance over the last couple of days
while BTC has grinded up,
alt performance has grinded down.
Yeah, that makes sense.
Let's talk about the alts that could perform well under the course of BTC breaking.
Which would you be looking at?
I think the leaders that have stood out.
I think I want to be in anything that has
a really constructive trend
right now. So, um, uh, from that standpoint, you have, uh,
like Ave, some of the dumb memes, um, like Mudang, um, uh,
there's a couple others.
Let me just sort by volume cause I have my filter out right now. Um,
I think honestly I would want to be in Solana.
I think Solana would do well through an all time high. I think the same thing for Pepe. I think XRP would probably
benefit as well. Again, there's a whole host of people that are interested in XRP that don't care
about anything else. Aave, Su, Farcoin probably benefits. It's benefited at the worst parts.
Benefits probably. it's going to
probably benefit during the best periods um the same thing with hype far coin and hype kind of
looked like they slowed down a little bit more recently but i think they're kind of the first
things to see uh a like a focus of attention again when um it's clear that that BTC is above all-time highs. My bet is, to be honest,
just to be completely transparent, I think that the more likely outcome is that BTC spikes above
the highs, and then we have a cool-down period, or we get a little roll, some kind of roll before
then. I'm still of the camp that the market's not going to be trending for any prolonged period of time in the near future but the level is so clean that again the
benefit of like an all-time high level is that you're like you know when you're wrong pretty
quickly you know if if if we're if we're closing like we can close a weekly candle and close
multiple days above 110 like then i mean there's no sense in fighting the trend at that point.
But I'm still of like 60-40 that this thing spikes up higher
and then ends up putting in a longer summer period of consolidation and chop.
I think that stocks, I mean, I think you have to pay attention to stocks too
because they have been trading so tightly.
I think that the market is using any reason it can to to sell a little bit of stock up here um moody's was
like a good example the moody's you know re-rating of the united states credit um usually when the
market is really bullish it's gonna shrug off any kind of uh negative press. And we've just seen recently that there's like a less responsiveness to the upside,
more responsive to bad news again.
And that kind of reignited the sell America trade narrative.
So we saw gold go up, see yields going back up.
The two-year, the 10-year. We saw the dollar respond negatively,
the dollar still pushing down.
I think I said gold up already.
So it's a weird spot because it is, again,
also it's contingent, I think, on equities.
I have a tough time believing that equities would turn
and then BTC would continue on through the highs.
Yeah, so it's interesting because I think we're probably at a very unique time right now because
it was just recently that we saw that BTC was starting to break the trend a little bit along with gold at the tail end of the tariff
noise, let's call it. But that mostly seems to be in the rear view mirror right now,
all the tariff stuff. And so I guess your view then is that, you know, BT is going to continue to trade more like risk equities and the trend with tariffs was kind of like a short idiosyncratic time when people
thought that tariffs were going to turn everything upside down. But Trump's kind of backed down a
little bit and signaled that they're going to make sure that things are more stable for U.S.
companies that actually have to deal with these things.
Is that your view?
Yeah, yeah.
I think BTC just kind of has these brief periods where it strays from the norms.
But I think it's always reliable that it's going to come back and trade more in line with general risk.
in line with general risk.
But over time, we'll see that that relationship might skew more drastically
as more people get involved in BTC outside of just the reason
of getting some kind of beta to the stock market.
And I do think that there's evidence that Bitcoin has seen a pickup
in that demand because of that,
because it has traded uniquely from April 2nd, earlier on.
Again, the IBIT demand was not, you know, the IBIT demand looked like it was, you know,
Delta 1 outright directional positioning.
It wasn't, again, met with any kind of Sarp uptick in CME open interest,
possibly indicating that the carry trade was being placed.
It's not like annualized basis is really high enough anyway
to make that trade look juicy.
But the thing about, you know, let's say, again,
people coming into the market for the first time,
buying $500 million worth of BTC,
buying a billion dollars worth of BTC,
that does have an impact on price, right?
This is still a relatively thin market compared to other markets.
But those people getting involved are, you know, let's say it's like a sovereign or, you know,
some large corporation or some just mega asset manager who's like, fine, we have to get off
zero and buy BTC. Those people getting involved will have an impact on the short term inflows.
They don't have short time horizons,
though. So outside of the impact, the initial impact, which could have been just a consistent
bid willing to soak up any selling. Outside of that, I think the market goes back to
trading against positioning that is sensitive. And for someone who's getting involved in BTC
with a long-term view, it's probably a five to 10 year view.
And if they're buying up here and their cost basis is anywhere between 90 and
a hundred, they're not really, you know,
shaking too much in their boots.
If we trade back to their entry down in the nineties,
or if we trade into the eighties.
So it's a different type of participant that has probably had a decent impact
on this market,
but it doesn't necessarily need to mean that it lifts the floor permanently because they're
involved.
And even if we start trading lower, they might not be sensitive to that movement, but everyone
else who kind of falls in on this momentum is.
So your momentum traders that get behind these large flows, they are sensitive to any kind
of downside movement.
So yeah, I think it'll generally just get back in line with risk.
So we'll be in a position where we're seeing it today, like the S&P, the Russell, the NASDAQ and BTC are pretty much trading luck and stuff.
Yeah, definitely.
By the way, for the folks just hopping on now, feel free to request speaker access anytime if you have any questions you want answered.
We got one interesting comment on the 90-day tariff pause.
Looks like that. Somebody's asking when does that end.
That ends on July 9th, so maybe that's an interesting day to watch or time leading up to that could be interesting in case they don't actually just continue punting the tariff pauses further.
You mentioned large inflows coming in from IBIT. I think one other trend that we've seen recently
is like a few other companies running the same micro strategy strategy, let's call it, like allocating some percentage of their treasury to BTC, being very public about, you know, future buys and using it kind of as a marketing tool, I guess.
How do you feel about that? Have you seen that? It seems to be like a shift. Like there's, I think there's now like a Japanese micro strategy. I think I saw something about a Middle Eastern micro strategy equivalent.
What do you guys make of that trend?
I mean, I think it's...
Oh, I didn't even see Maine join in, so I'll be quick.
Like I said, it's kind of unnerving to me that someone controls...
Like Sailor, someone controls such a large supply
and will control a much larger amount of supply.
But in the short term, which could be anywhere from six months to a year, as I was mentioning, and I kind of went
into detail on this during spaces this morning, like I said, Bitcoin's true float is really liquid,
really small and held by long term entities. So unlike tech stocks, where there is a ton of
shares floating around and liquidity is deep, when you have real buyers step into this market and lift,
whether it's a sailor, an ETF, a large pension, another sailor copycat, there's no supply to
absorb this. So it's not that there's no supply, but price has to move higher to incentivize new
selling, to create more available supply in the near term.
So I think these things are, when you have a spot market that's as tiny as this in terms of just the available float,
which is, I don't know, what's it like, 4 million BTC that is available, right?
4 to 5 million BTC globally, the real float.
Compare that to Apple, which is 16 billion, and Tesla, which is 3.
Where do you get that number, 44 to $5 million? Where is that estimated?
This is what I've read on multiple sources, unless that's wrong.
Got it.
So through a combination of what? Exchanges.
So long-term holders, what hold probably 70% of the circulating supply?
70% of the circulating supply.
It could be completely wrong, so you have to correct me.
It could be completely wrong, so you have to correct me.
So lost BTC, is that at least
a pretty...
Let's see, total BTC...
I have no idea.
Oh, okay. Oh, for a second, I thought
I was completely talking out of my ass. I'm like, I just read these.
But...
I think it's estimated that
it's estimated there's about 20%
of the total supply is
lost. Now, i don't know
where yeah so that's yeah so the estimated loss that i had was three to four million
yeah okay i thought i thought you said you meant that the actual flow the float was the
the 20 figure no no the according so chain analysis has it that makes all more sense yeah yeah yeah
okay i was like damn did I just read a dumb website?
It's like sponsored by, I don't know.
But yeah, I think it's significant for like reflexivity and short-term flows and just
market impact overall.
You know, look at this morning, like the hyperliquid whale.
He's like aping $500 million worth of btc on hyper liquid and
and uh doing this in like five minute intervals and sending the market and it's like all him
lately um i'll give this over to maim but one thing i would say is like there's uh an event
that probably is worth being long into honestly if you're skewing one side or the other right
weaning a little long versus de-risking i think it kind of makes sense to be long into the vegas event where vance is going to
uh at least we get closer to it the 27th to 29th where vance is going to be talking about btc
yeah um sorry i'm a little late here guys married life you you know. But it's, I think the market's been very
interesting lately. I mean, I was fortunate enough to be bullish near the lows, but I was looking to
de-risk and I did de-risk some of that kind of in that 94 to 96k area, just as thinking that this
might just be some sort of bearish retest. And we basically just, you know, crammed right through it the following week.
The big level that I'm paying attention to is kind of like 102 and change.
It's the highest monthly close ever.
I'd like to see how May closes relative to that.
The only thing of note that I'm looking at
is just the relative strength of altcoins right now.
I think if we get either a move above all time high
or some sort of decent correction on Bitcoin,
I think alt probably get smacked pretty good. And then that becomes your buying opportunity. I think a
lot of people are going to get caught, you know, with their pants down longing stuff that's up
three, four, five X in the last month and a half expecting it to just keep going in a straight line
and then Bitcoin kind of sneezes and, you know, you get that pullback. So other than that, with regard to your comment about the
MicroStrategy stuff, I don't know. There's part of me that thinks that the next systemic risk
event for Bitcoin has to do with MicroStrategy, but I'm just hoping that that's not something we
deal with this cycle. That's something that happens, you know, after I've sold and taken
all my profit. Yeah, I mean, I think, I mean, I think there's a good case to be made
for maybe it's on MicroStrategy itself
because I think they've got a pretty low,
let's say call it liquidation price
and pretty good terms.
But there are a bunch of other companies
like MetaPlanet in Japan now
has about 7,000 BTC,
got it 5,000 in 2025.
So they're all like tiny relative to
micro strategy but you know once you get into this this side of things like not
every company has to have that have that on the same terms as micro strategy you
could have companies starting to take on riskier and riskier instruments and
conditions to add more BTC.
And that's the kind of thing that can end up with a big blow up.
I think micro strategies actually well managed.
Sailor seems to know what he's doing, but famous last words.
But yeah, I mean, it'll be interesting to watch for sure.
You got one question about coming back after Labor Day.
So there's a famous saying, sell in May and go away or something.
I don't know what it is.
Like basically sell in May, come back in the fall.
We seem to be at a clearly different spot here.
I mean, we're significantly up over April.
The market looks pretty good overall.
Do you guys think in the end, though,
that history is going to prove itself to be right
and probably better just to keep an eye on things
and unlikely to have a big move over the summer
when a lot of institutions and stuff
are more or less on vacation
and not super active.
Yeah, I mean, I think I've been saying for the last three years to just come back after Labor Day.
But for a lot of people, this is not really applicable.
There's a lot of trading opportunities over the summer.
The more recent time that I said it was obviously last summer, but same thing applied in 2023.
I've said basically you sell in May and you come back after Labor Day, but it's more like you sell in April, you sell towards the end of March.
And then coming back after Labor Day because markets have August and September, not good, but coming back towards the end of September, basically just coming back towards around Q4, like when right before Q4, markets
tend to do well. So you have a lot more people at the desk. It's simple and it's not sometimes,
right? It's a behavioral thing, I think. I think it is somewhat evidence in terms of liquidity and
volumes overall, but it's not like there's no trading opportunities. I just think that it's been more the case that a higher
conviction directional move has been starting around that point. Whereas over the summer,
we've just tended to, I ran the stats on this last week and I don't know if I posted it on my Twitter,
but it's pretty obvious that over the summer months, it's kind of like stocks where if you buy in April and sell in September, your portfolio is way worse than if you buy in October and sell in March.
So being that I think we follow stocks a little bit more now, I think the behavior rules will probably continue to be somewhat relatable.
But I mean, if we're above the all-time high,
like I'm not going to sit here and say like,
you know, come back after Labor Day.
If we're sitting at like 170K in the middle of the summer,
I'm going to be like,
you better fucking sell by Labor Day, you know?
Yeah, like, I mean, I didn't quite run the stats
as opposed to I literally just went on the chart
and I marked out every May,
going back as far as the chart would let me. And more often than not, at best,
May through the summer has been range bound. And at worst, it has been kind of the top before a significant correction. So if you guys ever like, wonder about these kinds of things, like so much,
like you have the data, right? Go pull up the chart and look for yourself.
And so that's kind of just what I did.
I'm like, okay, I've always heard selling me,
go let's go look.
And more often than not, I mean,
the last market cycle top was like, I think in April
and then May it nuked 50%.
Whereas last year's May,
we kind of were just beginning that multi-month range.
We basically ranged from May until October
to Ryan's point. So a lot of this stuff, you can just go and test and look at yourself.
There's a lot of seasonality and kind of reasons that he's already alluded to why the summer
generally is not maybe going to be as busy. But if we're presented with new information,
and this time it's different then you just you
know you react and you see what happens so i think there is some credence to selling me and go away
definitely pay attention but so far we're two thirds of the way through and um you know it's
still looking pretty good so uh regardless of what we say no one is gonna stay away from the charts. So it doesn't even matter.
Very true. Very true.
So we saw a week where ETH did really well.
I think it pulled a move from the lows, like 1,400,
all the way up to 2,700 in a pretty short timeframe,
like within a month or so. So now it's sitting at about 2,500. And I think a lot of people are asking themselves, you know, right after that big move
up, there's a question of, you know, was like GCR right all along, the famous tweet, like ETH 10Ks
programmed. And then over the course of the bear and then the start of the bull, ETH was kind
of left behind in the dust. And if you were like an ETH maxi, you know, one of the dot ETHs from
back in 2020, 2021, you got really burned. Like the ETH BTC chart was brutal. The ETH soul chart
was even more brutal. And then, you know then a lot of people were kind of very optimistic,
even though still, if you look at the chart,
ETH against any other major, on a longer time frame,
it still looks terrible.
So what do you guys think?
Was that just an idiosyncratic week,
or does ETH have an unappreciated motion, let's call it, that could continue to surprise people as the cycle goes on?
Because I've seen a few folks that, you know, this is kind of a meme, right?
People get super optimistic as soon as the price starts going up and then super bearish when it's going down.
But, like, do you think that we could see ETH outperform BTC from here?
Because there are a few folks that are kind of like spouting this as a theory just based on that big move up off of the lows.
I'll be quick.
I don't think so.
I think that it's very unlikely that that'll happen.
And I think people are really excited about ETH because it squeezed a ton because it was literally like the most taken for granted portfolio hedge over the last year.
It was like, oh, you want to hedge your portfolio?
Why would you sell BTC?
Just sell ETH.
And we saw this.
It was egregious because the open interest was at all time highs from a coin standpoint.
And ETH was, again, like absolutely flatlined.
So there was a ton of positioning jammed into that.
And I think, you know, short squeezes can get the ball rolling was a ton of positioning jammed into that.
And I think, you know, short squeezes can get the ball rolling for a bit
and sort of feed on themselves.
But I doubt you're going to change
the interests of everybody here.
So it has to be a completely new set of participants
that are doing the lifting
because everyone here is going to go right back into Solana
and everything related to Solana.
So yeah, I strongly doubt it.
Yeah, it's tough. It was kind of one of those things, just even visually looking at
the chart where it's like, it's got to bounce eventually.
Um, you know, and that's kind of where we got to, we had taken out basically every monthly
low, I think going back like four or five years on the ETH BTC chart.
Um, and there was a lot of shorts built into that chart where it didn't take a lot to squeeze
You got to ask yourself, I have a lot of people ask me, like, is ETH going to make a new all-time high? And it's
like, maybe, but, you know, from here to all-time high on ETH is like a 90% move. So how high does
Bitcoin have to go to make that happen? It just seems like this was, you know, clearly the Solana
cycle. To Ryan's point, as as soon as he started getting the ball rolling
again my timeline as quickly as people start talking about eth again they went right back
into the soul memes and we're talking about the trenches being alive again and i think that's just
where the attention is so you got to wonder like where is that buyer and you know maybe the buyers
on proof that there's actually continued strength and some ability to sustain this trend.
Even though right now it's basically pumped into the most logical area of
resistance on the high timeframe, or it's just,
it goes so low that you can't not buy it. You know what I mean?
Like I was waiting if Bitcoin didn't bottom where it did and it made another
leg down. I was thinking like, okay, if ETH goes under a thousand,
I almost like have to buy it for just even a mean reversion play so that's kind of where my head's at i think like it's lost a lot
of respect in mind share and you wonder what it's got to do um to get buyers back i mean the best
narrative is price going up so we can see if that sustains i'm not so sure that's one of the most
bare that's one of the most bare statements i've heard for a long time
if eath goes down by 70 i might be a buyer i think i think that just about summarizes
summarizes the sentiment around eat still um i mean you just like mentally think about being
someone who's been holding eath right and you're looking at the price like oh my god it's up so
much that's 2500 it's like where was it last time at 2,500?
Where was Bitcoin?
You know what I mean?
ETH was $2,500 in June of 2021.
Like, what was the price of Bitcoin in June of 2021?
You know what I mean?
Like, it was at like 30 grand.
So it just kind of, it becomes very difficult to convince yourself that maybe you're not actually buying a super undervalued thing.
It's just kind of run its course.
I don't think if BTC ever makes a new all-time high, and that's pretty obvious,
Sol could never make a new all-time high against BTC.
Solana could go to $500, $600 and still never make a new all-time high versus BTC.
So I just made a tweet about this. You want, you can't lose,
don't lose eye of, don't take your eye off the price here.
Like the goal is to buy Bitcoin. If you want to be in crypto long-term,
the longer I'm here,
the more of a BTC maxi I become because even ETH,
which I thought was the de facto number two forever.
No one's going to challenge that uh has just underperformed
bitcoin hilariously over the last half decade yeah the craziest statistics to me is that
this april eth was trading pretty much at the highs of 2018 um like the december 2017, January 2018, range of, I don't know, around like 1,500, 1,440 or so.
And it's like, man, if you've been holding ETH all this time, you just got destroyed.
Like, there are lots of people posting on the timeline about how they got their families to buy ETH at like 3,000 or something.
And then here we are like many years later, BTC is above 100K. ETH's still sitting in,
you know, the low 2000s. It's obviously something against inflation holding ETH.
Like they'd be better. They would have been better holding dollars because there's also
the value to that money. This is the same thing with meme coins. Like I know meme coins are,
people are hyped on them again. Cause you know,
pop cat and fart coin are all up five, six X from the lows. It's like,
but it's still down 80% from the high, like that,
that information's only valuable if you bought at the lows and you had money to
do so. It's no different than ETH. Like if you bought ETH at 1500,
it's a great trade, but if you're eth at 1500 it's a great trade but if you're holding eth from 3500 and it pumps 70 you're still down you know so you got
to always like kind of it's that that's why i always find it so funny about people going crazy
on on meme coins i'm like but you guys have been bull posting this down 90 now it's down 80
yeah that that seems to be uh it's very it doesn't take much to get
people going after the after the port's down 90 percent I mean 2x is a 2x I guess um so uh one of
the interesting trends I'm seeing right now is the kind of launch pad wars so um I wanted to call
this trend out I don't know if uh Ryan, you and Main are looking into this,
but there's a new platform called Believe
where essentially it's like, I don't know,
like Web2 style startups raising money
by launching these equivalents
of like creator coins style thing.
And these launch pads are incredibly profitable.
Like a lot of times they're, I mean,
PumpFun is a good example.
1% fees on swaps.
Launch, I think it's actually 2%.
The fee revenue printed is pretty high.
I think one thing that's become clear over the last couple of years
is that people just want to trade tokens.
And I actually think that like speculation is going to be
what sustains blockchains in general,
because it's the only thing that can generate a high rate of transactions continuously
over time versus, I don't know, like the traditional DeFi functionality or like OG DeFi functionality
is called lending.
It just doesn't generate that much transaction flow.
But in any case, these are incredibly profitable platforms, the token launch venues.
I think Lats Bonk is another one on Seoul.
Virtuals, you could consider that to be in some way.
The coins are just one of a particular category.
Could this be like one of the big plays this cycle?
Could this be, continue to be one of the big plays this cycle?
Could this be continue to be one of the big plays this cycle?
Are you, are you looking at any of the alts in this category,
virtuals, altcoin, as a possible play here?
Sorry to change the subject here, but like, are we, like,
I don't know about you, Ryan, but like,
I think equities are due for a bit of a pullback.
Like I'm looking at 5,700, the gap fill on ES.
Like, are we not convinced that this James Wynn guy
is just the entire Bitcoin up move?
Like he's long 830 million and his his entry price is 105 and his lick is 100.
yeah no i i definitely uh i've been focusing most of my attention on him the last day and a half i think like i said i think there might be some merit to being long into this Bitcoin conference.
That long from that entry, though?
Well, I think something that stands out is like, so he's a big participant, right?
He had a big impact on the market.
He's recent enough to where his impact is like the only impact.
And from his average position, yesterday's cost basis of VWAP is around $103.
Then he exited around 106.
So that was a $3,000, 3,000 point markup for what was like 500 million or 800 million or something.
And then he took all that position off and the market only gave back half of that move. So like path of least resistance is, I mean, judging from that is higher.
There is like a really sticky bid.
So I don't know, maybe he's literally an insider and this is just more black edge that we see with
the Trump admin. I have to cut off in a second, but to what Ahmed was saying, yeah, the internet
capital markets thing is one of them. I think I wrote last week, it's not venture capital,
it's venture vapor. So it probably goes a lot higher because it's grifty, which naturally means I won't be in it until it's the worst possible time. So I'll
start paying attention to it three months from now when the trend is already over. And I'm
completely self-aware that my time is not best spent in that area. But I have to cut off, guys.
I appreciate you guys. And I'll tune in with you guys next week.
Yeah, I actually have to dip a little early today as well.
So I'm sorry I was here for such a short time.
But my thoughts on this, I think it's interesting.
I think the Pump Fund, having some competition is a good thing.
So I think we're going to see new and novel ways for people to monetize
and for people to trade attention because that's really what this is all about.
You know, if you're watching Gainsey's stream and you you're buying his coin speculating that his stream is going to improve
i think that that's a pretty cool you know kind of novel tech so interested to see how it goes but
i'm also interested to see how this how viable it is we saw what happened to pump fund during the
market downturn like volume just dried up so i don't know if we'll see that same kind of trend
all right cool um i think that's it for this week's topic anyway so we can we can wrap it up So I don't know if we'll see that same kind of trend. All right, cool.
I think that's it for this week's Topsy anyway.
So we can wrap it up here.
Thanks, everyone, for tuning in.
Thanks, Ryan and Main, as usual, for the insights.
And we'll see you guys next Monday back at the regular time, 10 a.m. Pacific. Það er það er það. Það er það.
Það er það.
