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Talking about China with Krane Shares $KBAB $KPDD | Stock Market Talk
Recorded: Jan. 26, 2026 Duration: 2:32:12Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, significant partnerships and fundraises are shaping the future of AI and energy sectors. Notably, Zoom's investment in Anthropic and NVIDIA's $2 billion stake in CoreWeave highlight strategic moves in tech, while rising natural gas prices and precious metals reflect broader economic trends. As companies like Apple prepare for AI updates, the market remains vigilant amid fluctuations in stocks like GameStop and the implications of hiring strategies.
Full Transcription
what is up what is up everybody hello hello we're gonna give you guys a couple seconds to get in
here let's see who's in here first let's start to see some of these speakers listeners come in
i appreciate everyone for joining us here shout out brian lund renj boone uh boones
rickiest rick is down there Steph J Rue honestly Ryan invest
Dima Brian etc I appreciate you guys for coming in and hanging out with me and
the team on this wonderful Monday my ETF portfolio was up a little bit ago let's
see if let's give it a good old refresh see if the
the stock market portfolio everything like that is moving higher here it is
all right still up but down a little bit a little bit off the highs a 0.4 percent is what the etf portfolio is in i uh i bought a little bit into the craze i did i did so uh we'll talk through
that in a second the individual stock
portfolio is now down 0.3 crypto still uh still down a little bit ethereum 2900 bitcoin still
struggling at 8800 obviously the move in silver gold etc the precious metals copper has become a
big one maybe we'll talk through that one a little bit yes i actually i i'm not good at holding off secrets in suspense i did buy a little bit of copper i was talked into
it so we'll see i i definitely am not buying it cheap i can tell you that much we'll talk about
that interesting day in the stock market today though i appreciate everyone for joining us on this space is 129 of you i'm seeing a couple
news stories today apple previously uh that's actually not that new zooms investment into
anthropic there's reportedly stories uh reportedly an investment that they made their partnership
is now worth between two to four billion dollars uh zooms investment in Anthropic zoom stock is up a good little
bit today let me double check into that zoom is now ticker ZM up 10% actually
before I keep going Brian Mike how do I sound you sound great it's fine you said
tall and handsome good good good good 5 good, good. 5'10", on a good day.
So average height.
But thank you for that.
Thank you for the little boost.
Another stock that was moving higher today.
I just need to make sure the quality was good.
GameStop is another name.
Michael Burry said that he is buying some GameStop.
I didn't see the full thesis on it from him.
It's up 6% today.
GME, we're interesting. It's the times.
Interesting to see if we're back in it. But GameStop coming out. Moving higher today. GME, we're interesting at the times. Interesting to see if we're back in it,
but GameStop coming out.
Moving higher today. Microsoft, they came
out with a new AI chip,
new AI accelerator chip.
We had Nancy Pelosi
making a bunch of moves today.
She was buying some long dated calls,
doing some other stuff in the portfolio.
There's a little portfolio management going on there.
Apple with a breaking new product that they just released today.
There's a new AirTag.
I'm sure we'll get a good reaction from StockTalk and the others
on the brand new breaking news Apple product that we got today.
We did have NVIDIA investing $2 billion into CoreWeave.
That was really the big news story from the morning.
NVDA investing $2 billion into CoreWeave. This was a part big news story from the morning. NVDA investing $2 billion into
CoreWeave. This was a part of a larger deal that was going on here, an expanded partnership.
CoreWeave to accelerate the build-out of more than 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030 to advance AI
adoption at global scale. There's a couple other stuff in there, but CoreWeave and NVIDIA. NVIDIA
take mistake into CoreWeave. There's a couple other things. This is core weave and nvidia nvidia take mistake into core weave there
was a couple other things this from the from the weekend obviously it is monday so there was some
some sunday saturday ish news stories a lot going on i'm sure a lot of you guys have snow right now
a lot of flights were canceled the most flights since covid but i didn't see i i hope everyone
is doing okay from the from the sounds of it most people are just a
lot of snow did seem like it uh apple a couple of new stories from the weekend though also sorry
natural gas prices hitting six dollars for the first time due to all this these for the first
time since 2022 due to all these winter storms a couple other news stories from the weekend apple
reportedly less than a month away from releasing a new ai update for its siri it's going to be powered by google gemini basically this has been catching up
reportedly to what they promised in the past and the kind of the next the real big update is still
coming later in the year so apple might be slowly starting to get its act together in the ai
department and that will be google thanked we
also had spot gold ripping over five thousand dollars per ounce for the first time ever this
past weekend i believe it's even higher now maybe it's pulled back but it had a nice move up to even
5100 for a little bit there in general all the precious metals silver over 100 copper moving as
well a lot of these names were uh we're having a good weekend that is enough
of me talking i think we got a good decent bit in here monotiv i see you down below let me go in and
pull the stock market news account up here as well if you guys have any questions as we're going
through this make sure to uh drop them down below right now there is a purple thingy in the bottom
right of your screen.
Go in, put your thoughts in there,
any questions,
anything you want us to talk about today.
And if we have time,
I will try and run through those.
I imagine this is going to be a conversation
about stuff like metals,
also stuff about earnings.
We are in the thick of earnings season,
so not today,
but expect going forward to hear
a lot of companies, how they're reporting earnings.. So not today, but expect going forward to hear a lot of companies
how they're reporting earnings. Wednesday after the close, we have Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta.
Also on top of that, we have Jerome Powell. He will be speaking at 2.30 PM Eastern on Wednesday.
So expect that. And then also Apple earnings after the close on Thursday. We have a lot of names and
a lot of earnings that will be washed.
I said that one too many times.
Not too much today.
New core, a couple others, but not too many live earnings coming up after the close.
But it's a very busy week going forward.
spaces and we'll go from there there's a tweet pinned up in the nest above we are planning on
And then I will also address your attention to one tweet, which I will say one or two times on the spaces. And we will go from there.
There's a tweet pinned up in the nest above.
doing an in-person event in new york uh around yeah in new york save the date august 3rd
in new york city more details will be coming obviously it's a little bit far out but we have
a forum that i did pin up in the nest above anyone is interested we want your feedback on
stuff that you guys would want to make sure that we have at this
event.
Stock talk is going to be coming.
A lot of the other traders from stocks and spaces and we'll be trading and we're going
to finalize everything.
But if you guys have any feedback on the stuff that you guys would want to see, and we're
going to do some like early bird prices and stuff like that.
So if you want to get in line for the earliest and cheapest these tickets are going to to be you should go into that tweet pinned up in the nest above fill out that form
give us some thoughts and uh yeah expect an in-person event though save that day that is a
monday august 3rd in new york city check it out save the date we are looking forward to it
to be pinned up in the nest above brian lunds you were in here very quickly how are you doing sir why don't you run through uh what you're watching in the market today i'm curious i think
this might be a topic maybe i'll change the title a little bit gold silver mine uh rares all that
stuff it is the hot topic you watch any of that stuff uh well first look it usually takes a uh a funeral or a wedding to get me east of vegas
but uh that new york event sounds interesting very interesting i'm excited it's gonna be good
yeah yeah i might show up um and this snow thing i'm not sure what this is you're talking about
snow i'm not i don't i don't know what that is. Can you describe it to me?
I do not either. I'm in Puerto Rico, so no. Sorry.
Brian, why don't you come on over to my house for dinner tonight? I can bury you in the 15-foot snow piles I have around my place here.
You know, we pay...
And given how the cold is going to be and the fact that there's cold forecasting another 30 inches this weekend, we may not see you in May.
there's forecasting another 30 inches this weekend, we may not see you to May.
Yeah. We pay what's known as a weather tax out here in California, meaning we have the highest
state income tax. We also have idiotic state government. And this is the one time a year
when we get some ROI on it, when the rest of the world is freezing and we're going to the beach.
So look, everyone's been talking about
metals. Yeah, we get it. Silver, copper, or there's going to be a copper shortage and silver's
going to a gazillion, whatever. Last week on Friday, so I do a daily update every Monday
through Friday for subscribers after the close. And the title of last Friday's was,
are we set up for perfection? And what I did is Riders was, Are We Set Up for Perfection?
And what I did is I walked through, like I always do, the indexes. And the case I was making is
that the SPX was just set up perfectly. We had that pop that saved the index on Wednesday.
We had that big down day Tuesday. We had a reversal day on Wednesday.
Whenever you get these pullbacks, you know when the pullback is over only after a sequence of things have happened. The first thing that has to happen, it just has to, by physics, it has to,
you have to stop going down. So we stopped going down on Wednesday. The next thing that has to
happen is you have to recapture support resistance levels.
You have to recapture progressive moving averages.
We did actually a lot of that on Wednesday that we continue to do that on Thursday.
And then we got what I think is one of the best setups ever.
We got this tight inside consolidation day right below resistance level, right above all the moving averages, the 8, the 21,
the 50, obviously way above the 200, just above the all-time high VWAP. And so I felt like we were
really set up to make a run higher at all-time highs, to break the short-term trend line,
downtrend that started on the 12th of January. And one of the things that I
pointed to was, you know, everyone's been kind of sleeping on the mag seven, or as I call it,
the mag seven plus one for a while now. And we saw at the end of last week, a lot of names
get really good pops. We saw Metapop, we saw Microsoft pop, we saw Amazon pop,
We saw Meta pop. We saw Microsoft pop. We saw Amazon pop, Nvidia, obviously Tesla, and even ones that didn't. Like, you know, Google was near all-time highs at the end of last week. And Netflix, although it's down, it's been up since that earnings gap, right? It gapped down, reversed, and it's starting to climb back up.
and it's starting to climb back up. So I really thought, and I still think that maybe everyone's
focusing on rocks right now, and that's great. And I do think commodities and all those things,
they've obviously done well, and they're going to do well. They're like aircraft carriers. When
they get going in a certain direction, they tend to move that way for a long time and in a very slow, deliberate way.
But I think going into earnings this week, we could see a resurgence of the big cap tech names taking the lead,
which I think would be really healthy for the market.
And we see, what else?
We see, yeah, I mean, that's really what I'm focusing on.
The queues look good.
Yeah, I think that's where we're going to potentially see.
And I like the move in Apple today.
Apple was right on its 200 EMA on Friday to close.
This is the pop it needed.
And if it can continue this into earnings
and get some good news, we could see Apple back near all-time highs in the not-too-distant future.
Oh, speaking my language.
Apple all-time highs would be nice.
It's looking good today.
Despite their lack of innovation, which I know Stock Talk is going to talk about.
Who cares?
And he's not here yet.
This is a pro-Apple space at this current time.
Yeah, but you know this is –
Hey, listen there.
Now they have Google's AI innovation.
None of the costs.
They're getting paid for it.
There was a story today, like I was saying.
There was Anthropic reportedly wanted billions of dollars from Apple over multiple years for them to use claude in apple siri
they said no so now they're probably i bet you they're getting paid billions of dollars from
google for uh that to be used within siri yeah and look and i'm obviously i'm i'm giving stock
talk a hard time but i always like i you don't get extra points for making money from unique
or obscure stocks you don't get extra points for making money from unique or obscure stocks.
You don't get extra points for making money from stocks that are more innovative than other stocks.
All I care about is price going in the right direction.
And I think that move off the 200 is nice.
And I think, again, if we can get some continuity after earnings, I really think we're probably going hit all-time highs not in the not too
distant future whether they're innovative or not we'll see if innovation is back at apple brian
good job starting us out there i appreciate you for uh for joining in any earnings this
week you're interested in i know not normally your thing but you never know
uh yeah i mean i'm interested in all the normal ones i mean i think tesla is going to be really interesting so i know you're a big fan of tesla i'm a big fan of tesla i started a position in
tesla you know i've been in and out of it over the years but i started more of a core position
uh literally on the day that that uh douchebag tim waltz uh started to bag on the day that that douchebag Tim Walz started to bag on the company. So that was
like March 18th. And it's been a great run. And I think a lot of people, you're hearing a lot of
talk in the last few weeks. Something that we've been saying here in spaces for months, if not
years, that Tesla is not a car company. They're just not, right? They're so much more than a car company. And I think earnings will be very interesting, not so much for what the
numbers are, but for what they're going to announce. Musk has been teasing some stuff.
We're seeing a lot of big names in analysts in the tech area throwing out some ridiculous numbers.
Kathy Woods is talking about $2,600 a share.
People are talking about it being the first $100 trillion company.
Brian, you can't take Kathy Woods seriously anymore.
Yeah, so I was just going to say, if you let me finish that sentence.
I get nervous when I see things like that.
Sorry.
I get nervous when I see things like that.
But I also think that there is – like you strip away 10%, 15%, 20% of that.
I do think that their – Tesla, we have the potential.
Someone said it.
We're going to say I don't remember Tesla making cars.
I really feel like that is what we're going to look back in five and ten years.
One of the things – I'll just wrap up with this.
One of the things we've talked about so many times on this space is,
we talked about this when Meta was at $88 a share and everyone said they blew it.
They went all in on the metaverse.
What a bunch of idiots.
It's over.
These big cap tech companies, they do not have to get back to their all-time highs and they do not have to
extend beyond their all-time highs the same way they got there, right? They're so big,
they have so much money, they have so much talent, they have so much great leadership,
they have so much market share that they can constantly reinvent themselves. You've seen this
from Google, you've seen this from Netflix, which started out as a company that sent DVDs in the
mail and is now producing some of the best stuff that's out there. It's buying studios. I think
Tesla is the prototype for that sort of company. Elon Musk is the CEO you want in that sort of
company. And I think they're on a launching pad here to just revolutionize the world in ways we
can't even imagine. And with that, they should
see some really good price appreciation in the next few years. But that's as an investor. As a
trader, you'll have to go with the technicals. But from a macro theme, that's what interests me.
And I think it will be interesting to see what he says on the call. I think it's Wednesday or
Thursday. I can't remember which day. of those days tesla is wednesday got it wednesday tesla meta and microsoft zuckerberg and elon musk
will be talking at the same time so uh whoa i don't know if that was true probably was chosen
on purpose and then apple thursday right apple thursday We have a very busy week coming in front of us.
I saw a couple of you guys, four people have filled out that forum up in the nest above.
Go in.
Check out that tweet.
Again, we are doing an in-person event in New York City, August 3rd.
We want a little bit of your feedback.
Check the tweet pinned up in the nest above.
We would love to have you there.
I won't do it every single second here, but I wanted to do that once or twice at the start let's keep going around mr options mike how
you doing sir having good yourself man i am doing well i am doing well it is a nice little green day
in the stock market a lot going on it's a busy week but it's it's it's monday it's a nice start
to it so yeah what's going on are you watching any of these
precious metals anything like that that's where a lot of the conversation is
i'm i'm avoiding them i mean i'm not touching i've been touching them and i'm not going to touch
them up here and you know to me silver looks like it has a little bit of a possibly a little bit of
a short-term topping candle here a little blow off look at the size of how much has come off
the highs here at this point
um I don't want anything to do with I wouldn't short them because I have no feel for them but I don't want to be long them so I'm just avoiding them and not paying attention to them other than
I see them honestly I think today was just uh a lot of traders were out today and analysts and
stuff because of the snow they didn't get into the office in the New York City area so you know quiet
day and then you know it's a quiet day ahead of a big week too you know earnings
kick in tomorrow morning with uh united healthcare boeing ups gm all before the market opens those
are some big dow components in the s p 500 we've got a good feel there you guys didn't talk about
the seagate's tomorrow night and sandisk is on thursday night i mean god i want to see what the
hell these guys say after this meteoric run so i think this is going to be just a really busy week uh in general
we have the fed on wednesday which i think is probably going to be the least important piece
of everything i don't expect anything special to come out of that one uh it's interesting to me
that they're running names like mic and Meta and Apple into earnings.
It says they're expecting these guys to be good.
We'll see.
I actually think Microsoft's going to be good.
Meta is my big unknown here on that one.
I think Meta here to me is a tough call.
It's a tough call. If they're not monetizing AI yet in any meaningful way,
it's probably going to get slammed again.
So we'll have to watch and see how that plays out.
If they are, I could see this thing back up into the 750 area again,
probably on earnings itself, depending on what they say.
Outside of that, the banks were strong today.
You saw a strength there.
They're pushing back up a little bit the semis not so much we saw that big deal for usar where they got the 1.6 billion
dollars from the united states government and then they did a 1.5 billion dollar offering that's a
hell of a lot of dilution that's why that thing's selling off after that today you know it's giving
that whole move back up and yeah i just know to me the dilution where's the stock at now it's down to 26.
interesting well so you know that's you know government's not giving the money for nothing
they're taking stock they're taking ownership so it's dilution so you know they same thing with mp
so we'll see how this all plays out but and it's gonna take a while these these names will not be
out there producing rare earths in any meaningful size for several years.
So, you know, it's not like you're going to miss the boat there.
Let it settle and see what they do.
What else?
CoreWeave, that move up was kind of interesting.
I didn't trade it.
I traded Apple today a couple of times.
And did I try anything else today?
I did something else today.
I don't remember what.
Tells you how I'm with it.
I've been actually shoveling my neighbors out all day long.
I traded NVIDIA this morning on that initial opening pop, which I thought was nice.
But, you know, the market doesn't look bad to me here.
Microsoft is joining Google and Amazon in creating their own AI chips.
This is just their way of saying to NVIDIA, we're tired of paying whatever it is you desire to get paid for these chips.
And it's not that we're not going to use them, but not everybody needs those highest powered chips.
So we're going to start making our own that are much cheaper and we can make more money on it in the data center.
And again, that's not anything that's going to be bad for NVIDIA.
This happens all the time. It happens with server chips.
So with Intel, I love the second generation of what they're announcing too. So, I mean, it's not like the first time they tried.
Yeah. What made me laugh was there was a rumor out there that Intel's going to be building for
them. And that made me almost crack up. You know, Intel is not exactly known for their GPUs.
So yeah, overall, I think it's an okay day.
It's a fine day.
I think tomorrow things will kick into higher gear.
And then, you know, especially once we start getting into Wednesday night
and those big, you know, the Mag 7 type earnings coming in,
that's when things are really seen.
And if those things are strong, that's going to propel the market.
So we have some good earnings from Tesla and Microsoft and Apple.
I think it could really move the markets.
I'm with Brian.
As far as Tesla, I don't care where the numbers are.
I don't care if they beat or they miss.
It's about the messaging and if does Musk provide any clarity and any short-term dates.
And with Elon, it has to be short-term dates.
If he gives a short-term target date,
that is something he generally would hit.
When he gives a, oh, the end of 2026
or the end of 2027 or the beginning of, right?
Those are dates he almost always misses.
So I wouldn't read into that.
So you're looking for a short-term hard date.
Like if you said, yeah, we should be in production
by March 1st on this or June,
that's what you're looking for.
And that will drive the market. you didn't believe the the recent one about humanoid robots being around by the end of whatever by the end of next year i'm starting to sell it no no not by the
end of next year no didn't buy that one for a minute honestly i think if he would announce
that he's going to shut up on twitter the stock would rock it seriously you notice that Brian right he started getting
political again and after he got since he's got his new bonus is a new package
and the stocks been dropping them I mean I I think the board missed a golden
opportunity to make it make him just be quiet with that compensation package you
know one trillion dollars up to a trillion dollars instead of politics.
Stop with it.
And I think that is the biggest existential risk to Tesla
is that he has a somewhat friendly administration right now,
but that could change.
And if he starts getting, you know, I'm seriously like if,
let's just say it.
I mean, if a Democratic president comes in Congress, I think he's going to be in the crosshairs.
And I think it's a liability.
And it's not just this country.
He tends to try to get involved with everybody else.
So it's not just – and again, to be what he wants to sell, he's not going to want to just be here in the United States.
Europe, China, Asians, markets. So yeah, I think you're right. That's a big risk. It'd be great if he would
just stop, but he can't. The moat that he has against that right now is perfection.
He has the best product in a lot of places. I'll give you an example. A buddy of mine was just coming back from some conference last week, and he was flying over the snowstorms across the country,
and he's streaming live his son's basketball game on Starlink from the plane he's on.
Elon Musk, Tesla, all his companies, they make fantastic products, right? So there are even people that
don't like him politically or whatever. It's not in their best interest to not use those or to not
align themselves. But if you start getting competitors that are close, that are giving you
alternatives, I think a lot of people would very quickly pivot from Tesla and Elon Musk type
products. And again, that's the risk that you have when you get so political.
I agree.
Well, listen, his pay package
is definitely towards big sales
and large market cap numbers.
So he really only gets those
if the company is successful.
And if it's successful,
then he can tweet really what he wants.
So I feel like that's kind of the dynamic
that you kind of have the dynamic that's you kind
of have to accept at this point that's that what motivates him at this level being worth 600 billion
i mean don't you think at some point you can get so full of yourself that you go i don't care about
an extra 400 billion i care about legacy quote unquote or you know what's right quote-unquote was that the profit I mean I agree with you
I thought that was for Evan it was yeah yeah I don't know it's hard to know
exactly what Elon comes in and thinks and wants and needs and stuff but I
don't think it's it's always money decisions at the end of the day I think
he kind of just comes no I says and does what he wants.
This whole SpaceX IPO is going to be a fortune.
You think, forget Tesla, that's probably going to pay him.
I don't even want to know how much right away, very quickly.
Then you have XAI.
So, I mean, the truth is he could walk away from Tesla at this point
if he actually really wanted to
not saying he did and I don't think he does but he could walk away and just be the other two
companies and say screw it let somebody else run Tesla I will say one thing about Elon Musk
he he god damn if that guy doesn't do what he says he's gonna like think back when he bought
Twitter okay think back
at how how the pundits and everybody came out of the woodwork telling everyone that it was the worst
deal in the world he overpaid for it it's never going to be probably i mean and i think it's been
a rousing success so i mean everything that guy touches is gold but you just wonder like
how long that can last you know especially if you
make very very powerful enemies agree and we really don't know what kind of monetization
twitter is at this point right we don't know how it's doing from a financial perspective well i
mean it's i mean it's a success in terms of the place it occupies in our culture today.
Right.
And for us as traders, it's the best platform in the world to pay attention to.
I mean you could argue.
You could make the argument, and I think it would be a legitimate argument, that Twitter swayed the last election.
You could make the argument that Twitter somewhat moves the markets.
I mean it is a major force whether it is profitable or not, and that's what I mean. And I mean, it is a major force, whether it is profitable or not.
And that's what I mean.
And I'm sure it will be profitable.
I mean, look at all the things
that they've added to Twitter
just in the couple of years
that he's owned it,
that those, you can't say
the R word anymore,
but those guys that are aligned
with Dorsey, they couldn't figure out
how to edit a tweet, right?
Or didn't want to edit a tweet
for the whole time.
And now you can do things
on Twitter that are amazing
Especially if you're a premium subscriber
I agree
But I also find like they still have problems that they don't fix quickly like right now
Notifications aren't working right. They're just not showing up for some reason
You don't see them like this has been going on for five days. They're also pretty rough as well
There's a lot of problems on this app, but I mean, you know, it is what it is.
It is what it is.
But their integration of Grok into it has been very good, I think.
And how much of that is legacy, right?
Things that they just, the way it was built or from the jump.
I don't think there's much legacy left.
I think they've wiped most of it out.
Maybe.
Stock talk, do we have you?
It is
prime Leo walking time.
No, no, no. Leo's been walked. I am here.
What's going on? We're talking your favorite
category. They're bashing Elon Musk
up here. Dude, you were
500% last year. Can't you afford someone
to walk Leo for you?
There is an app for that.
I like walking my dog. I bet you do. I knew you were going to say that. Yeah, I know. I do. app for that i like walking i bet you do i knew you were gonna say
that yeah i know i do i do i like walking my dog um makes him happy you know i think he prefers when
i walk him then when i was well dude i i've been dragging my dog has been dragging me through 12
to 15 inches of snow he was dragging he was dragging me today too because he hates snow
and he doesn't like like going potty in the snow.
So he likes to smell grass.
And he can't smell any of the grass because of all the snow.
Well, who does like going potty in the snow?
Nobody likes that.
Duke's losing his mind right now.
He actually went on the sidewalk just a little while ago.
He finally just gave up and squatted there.
I was like, oh.
Yeah, Leo does not like the snow at all.
But what was the Elon conversation?
It was kind of around earnings coming up this week and stuff.
And they were also talking about, you know,
where with the SpaceX IPO coming up,
the argument has always been a lot of Elon Musk's net worth is in Tesla.
So they kind of need him.
He kind of needs it to work and stuff.
And that isn't necessarily the case
anymore. Even if you look at the Bloomberg Billionaire Index,
the amount from SpaceX
is a little bit larger, so
these guys are kind of, you know,
the debate around it. I'm pretty sure SpaceX
overtook his
Tesla holdings last year, right?
Yeah.
What about it, though?
What's the conversation?
I was just saying that I thought that the biggest risk for uh tesla and elon was he's getting very political like i i feel like if in three years
there's a new uh you know party in power he's making a lot of um powerful enemies and i just
i wish he would cool it a little bit and focus more on um business
yeah that's probably true um he is definitely i don't know still being kind of returned to
his aggressive form on politics i mean i i don't that's not why i ever became like an elon fanboy
was because of his politics obviously i'm not saying I disagree with them. I'm just saying that that's not the reason why I liked Elon when I was growing up and,
you know, for the last decade or so that he's been an inspiration to me, not because of that,
but because of what he does with his company. So I agree with that, that I'd like him to be
just more focused on his companies. But I think he is pretty focused on his companies. I mean,
I think after he got the Tesla pay package secured and now the SpaceX IPO is coming up,
I think he knows that his net worth is probably going to go up, assuming the SpaceX IPO goes well, which I think it will.
He knows his net worth is going up even more than it already is.
I mean, what does he add? He's pretty close to $500 billion now.
He's close to $700 billion.
Okay, well, there you go. He's pretty close to $500 billion now. He's close to $700 billion. Okay, well, there you go.
He's pretty close to $700 billion.
He'll be a trillionaire pretty soon, especially if the SpaceX IPO goes well.
So I like to imagine that he has his eyes on the prize, even with all the political commentary.
weekend he was tweeting a lot about um spacex and the fact that he thinks the space economy
will be worth many times more than the uh earth economy because of all the energy that's out there
um in space but i don't know he's to me it's hard for me to just assume that he's not being focused
because he's talking about other things because in the past that's been a mistake to assume and so I'm not going to make that leap
and say he's not working I'm sure he is but yes all things being equal I would obviously like him
to just be more innovation focused than politically focused I think other people can handle the
political side of things but he likes to get involved in whatever he likes to get involved
he's one of those people that you know says I don't care what you think about what I
say, I'm going to say it anyway. And I think I respect that in a way too, but yes, there is
downsides to it. Like Brian said, if, you know, the Democrats win in a landslide in the midterms
and potentially take, you know, the white house in the next cycle. Who knows? I'm not saying they will or won't, but that's obviously a possibility.
That would, to a degree, backfire on Elon.
But let's be clear.
The Biden administration was no fan of Elon's.
They blocked him at every turn and corner and didn't invite him to the White House EV summit
and so on and so on.
And Elon's net worth exploded during the Biden administration.
Right. And so I don't think he was that he wasn't that political during he hadn't aligned himself
with one side of the aisle as that's fair. Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. I still think that.
Yeah, there was some animosity towards him in that administration for whatever reason. Maybe the whisperings of him getting political went up the ladder.
But yeah, I think he'll be fine either way.
The one thing about this country is, yes, you can be a political enemy.
And yes, you can get persecuted by a political party.
That happens.
But it doesn't happen to the degree that it happens in other countries.
I mean, they're not going to seize his companies or anything or anything along those degrees is there going
to be maybe some throttling of government contracts potentially um but i mean i think
that this point spacex is pretty irreplaceable as a company like at their scale they just dwarf all
the other space and satellite companies and there's just really no comps.
You can't be like, oh, well, you know, for these mission critical applications, we're
just going to get someone else to do it because we don't like Elon.
That's a really tough judgment call to make because SpaceX is the foremost space and satellite
company on planet Earth.
And not only are they ahead of everyone technologically, but they are way ahead of
everyone in scale, like way ahead. Like, I mean, if you said Rocket Lab was like a competitor to
SpaceX, I would say, sure. But that's a really generous term. And the same thing would go for
any of the other space and satellite stocks out there. Like, yes, do they purport to be competitors
to SpaceX? In theory, are they competitors to spacex yes but in reality
when you look at scale of projects i mean not even close right spacex can or not can spacex
does launch 95 of everything that goes to space goes through spacex it's about as monopolistic
as it gets so that's a really really hard monopoly to break, even with political opposition, in my opinion.
The Tesla side of things, maybe that's a little bit more malleable.
But I mean, I think Elon will be fine either way.
But bottom line, yes, I agree with Brian
that he probably should take a step back from all that.
He's got another year or two.
Push the gas, and then after that, pull back.
But I don't think that's going to happen But I don't think that's going to happen.
I don't think it's going to happen. And maybe it is a different
conversation if as his pay
package is linked towards the stock going up
and if it actually does start to hinder
it, maybe that
comes in. It's a very different conversation when we're talking
about humanoid robots that are
the best ones out there versus
EVs. Even self-driving cars
is a different conversation
than just evs which are a little bit more commoditized cars in general
all right stock talk i i was gonna maybe wait a little bit to talk to you on this one
but i i'm sure you're getting asked a lot about this on the discord in general we've probably
talked about it on here once or twice silver gold copper
rare earth metals all that stuff copper being used in the data center theme there's just so much of
this going on it's getting x is loving it right now i might have been talked into buying a little
bit of copper on one of these ones that cop x etf but um what's your uh what's your general
thoughts here obviously there's some of them that are more goals, just kind of hedges
buying it. I know we've talked through that
one. There's some other ones with
some data center purposes and stuff
like that. You got any thoughts
on the rare metals? I'm sure you've
been getting some questions about it in
the Discord. I'm sure you've been your favorite questions.
I mean, there was
a couple of stocks I was looking at last week that
I was considering trading.
I'm not going to take a like residual medium term or long term position in any of the rare stocks because they are all ridiculously overvalued, in my opinion.
But but do I think there's a trade opportunity there?
Yes. I mean, there's a lot of, it's a catalyst rich environment, but even today you saw the
fade, right?
Like the fade on rare earths today was pretty brutal.
I mean, all those stocks were up, I don't know, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10%
in pre-market.
I mean, USAR was up what, like 55% in pre-market and is now up 7% and all the other rare earth
stocks are down 10 to 20%.
That's a pretty brutal fade. I'm not saying that's like rare earth trade over, don't own those stocks.
I think there's a trade to be made there, technically speaking. But I think all of these stocks, I mean, not I think, all of these stocks are up 3, 4, 5, 6, 700% in a year.
Now, could they keep going up as catalysts come out?
Yeah.
I mean, if the administration keeps taking stakes in these companies,
then yeah, there's still more juice.
But do I want rare earth exposure here as like the core part of the portfolio?
I mean, most of these are trading at multi-billion dollar valuations
and they haven't even put a pickaxe in the ground. So, I mean, I don't know. It's just, I always hesitate to say
meme stocks because then people get pissed off because they're like, oh, well, it's not a meme
stock, dude. Like look at X, Y, and Z. So I hesitate to say that, but they trade like meme
stocks and they're hyper volatile hyper volatile and yeah if you catch
some nice gap ups you can make some money but do i think that they're like a sustainable investment
here no i don't um i think of these valuations you're kind of shooting in the dark you know some
of these companies will secure major supply chain deals major government deals and they'll probably
you know ink contracts that are worth a couple hundred
million dollars and at some point some of these stocks will double or triple or whatever i mean
we saw what happened with mp materials last year but the the issue with sympathy moves and that's
what's happened not only in rare earths but in a lot of stocks in a lot of categories the issue
with sympathy moves is that they the stocks the stocks move in sympathy for no reason, right?
For no reason of their own.
They just move because they're related to the sector.
So when you have a catalyst like you had this morning or this weekend with the USAR, and then USAR is gapped up 40% pre-market, what happens?
Well, traders go and try to find other rare metal stocks that are not gapped up,
right? And they buy them. And you saw that this morning. They're all, like I said, all up 7,
8, 9, 10%, all the sympathies. And then they faded into the open. Now, that's the danger of
this, which is that these stocks just keep gapping up and multiple expanding for no reason. And then
eventually some of them don't have the catalyst to back it up.
And then that's when you start seeing an unwinding in the trade. I'm not saying that that's what's
happening today. I think today is just a pullback at a lot of the spec names, but it's part of the
reason why I don't feel compelled to be involved. Like I don't look at any of the rare earth names
here and say, Oh my God, like what a value, you know, or, and I'm not even really a value guy, but like,
I don't look at any of the rare earth stocks and go like, oh wow. Like I have to own this.
And last year I felt that way. Like at the beginning of last year, you, you, I mean,
in the six sevens and eights, I was buying the hell out of that thing. That thing's 25 bucks now.
I mean, I think it's more than fairly valued now and i don't own it i sold
in november of last year uh the rat the last of it i sold in november of last year but that was a
great trade for us last year but when you're when you're hitting these things off a base you know
when you you is six or seven bucks it's one thing when you're hitting it off of a parabolic 5x move
when the stock's 25 bucks that's just not my view of risk reward right like
i like to hold stocks for multiple months so that means that for me ideally i need to buy stocks
that aren't on these parabolic runs i need to buy stocks that have been basing out for x amount of
months or years and i think have an opportunity to break out of that base because when you have
multi-year base breakouts,
those are the types of stocks you can ride for three or four months
and do very well on.
So it's just a matter of style.
My style is momentum-driven to a degree,
but there is a limit to where I say,
okay, this has surpassed reasonable fundamental value.
This is far too extended on the higher
timeframes. I'm just going to be paws off on this name. And that is how I act with these stocks.
And it's why a lot of people are like, oh my God, you're calling these meme stocks. I'm more so
calling them meme stocks because of the price action, not because of the underlying business
or the underlying asset. There's a lot of valuable underlying assets in rare earths.
But yeah,
I'm just not, I'm not particularly interested in that trade here, even though I think it will be a catalyst rich environment. Maybe at some point I'll take like a week long or two week long trade
on one of those names. I see a really, really nice technical setup brewing, but it'll be just
that. It'll be just a technical trade, which most of my trades are not. Most of my trades are,
you know, the trifecta
i want a nice chart i want a nice balance sheet i want a nice catalyst i want a nice theme so um
ideally my highest convicted trades check all those boxes in the case of rare earths the only
thing i think that's nicer are the charts on those stocks the charts are nice but um you know that to
me makes them viable as a trade and not much else. But that's my view on that
sector currently. That being said, you know, the investments in these companies from the
administration will continue to be catalysts. So I don't want people to get the wrong idea and
think that like, oh, if you own them, you should sell them. That's not what I'm saying. I think
the stocks can still go higher based on their technical structure and based on the catalysts that are available to them so be mindful of that
i'm trying to give a balanced opinion here are there we've talked about a lot about lithium
in the past on here and i'm not saying it in this context in that one but there are certain metals
certain rare earths that are more useful and that are
kind of getting attached to this data center theme there are ones getting attached to other themes
i'm curious obviously you just gave us this whole thoughts and thesis here these stocks are up a
bunch um are there certain stories here that are more interesting for you than others like the gold
one in general the basement whatever uh there's also, I've been hearing a lot of talk around copper and data
centers and that type of thing
and a copper shortage, whatever.
I apologize for all these
dismissive superlatives
or whatever they're called as I do another one.
But I want to hear your thoughts around
the kind of
rare earth market. Uranium is
another one we've talked about.
Are there ones that are more
interesting for you than others i guess we have been talking about this through leu and some
others but is there more like metals that would be interesting for you i care more about the
strategic nature of the assets when it comes to industries like this than i do about um
like where the hype is.
I still like Centris.
I still own Centris.
It didn't perform well today.
I think it was down like 4%, 5% today.
But I still own that stock.
I mean, I think that stock is unique
in the sense that it's the only enricher in the country.
They're going to expand their Piked Enrichment plant
through 2027. They're investing like like 460 million to do that um and they're still the only
enricher at scale in the united states so that makes that name and continue to be interesting
to me i mean the price action hasn't been superb lately it's been kind of choppy but um that's okay
i'm willing to sit through that because that there's a greater thesis behind that trade.
And it might even end up being more of a trade.
Like, I may end up just holding Centris for a long time because I just haven't seen any other competitors emerge to them.
And I think on the higher timeframes, that chart is still very constructive.
Like, I think the monthly chart on Centris Energy is gorgeous.
the monthly chart on centers energy is gorgeous so yeah I mean it I always say
this people get annoyed in my community when they ask me this but like a lot of
times people ask me about you know rules or things that I'm keeping an umbrella
on and I always say it's case by case like you know every stock is I treat
every stock differently,
depending on the reason why I own it. There are some rules that I try to pull across multiple
assets, but I treat most stocks differently based on why I own them. If I own them for some greater
reason that I think is going to pan out over five or 10 year timeframe, then I'm not going to let
week to week or day-to-day volatility concern me. Now, on the other hand, if it's a trade, then I am going to let day to day and
week to week consult. Like if, if the daily chart on a trade of mine is breaking below the 21 EMA
on the daily, I am almost always out, but that's, if it's a trade, you know, if there's a greater
thesis or there's a catalyst I'm waiting for that's around the
corner, then I'm not going to let a 21 EMA break a breakdown, shake me out. Right. I'm going to be
like, Hey, look, I'm waiting for a catalyst. That's the purpose of this position. Even if
it slips below the 21 EMA a little bit, that's okay. So it depends this case by case, but yeah,
in the case of centrist, that's about the only exposure I have to nuclear slash, I mean,
I wouldn't consider it a rare earth exposure. Um, that's about the only exposure I have to nuclear slash... I mean, I wouldn't consider it a rare earth exposure.
But it's the only exposure I have to that general space, I guess.
And I planned on it for a while.
So no changes there.
I would classify it as a rare earth player in that area.
I definitely would.
Some people are going as simple as the materials themselves and the miners or stuff.
But some of it's a lot more in this area, refining
other parts. We've talked about even
different parts of this industry.
This general theme of AI
data centers being made
in the US, what does that mean
across everything?
It is a huge theme and we're just continuously
playing down the parts of it
and even when you like we've been talking about this for a long time now even when you think it's
done these have continued to run if you're the shortage for the ai theme your stock is going to
move a lot i know the uh the microns the sandists etc of the world have been examples of that flying
brian i believe you were the one who was talking about this earlier.
Sandisk reporting earnings this week.
It'll be interesting for them.
Yeah.
No, it wasn't me.
Oh, well, they do report earnings on Thursday after the close.
That should be an interesting one.
SNDK.
That's the best performing stock in the S&P 500.
Yeah, the whole theme.
It doubled last year and then doubled the beginning of this year again
which is pretty crazy
yeah I want to remind people it's January 26th
so we're less than a month
into the year so far
we already have a stock or two that has doubled
just one actually Sandisk
it might have even fallen back from it a little bit
but that stock is reporting earnings this week
I can't imagine the type of numbers that Sandisk
has to report
for them to get their stock to move higher.
Sandisk has been flying.
I think it's down today.
Micron's down today.
Down just 0.6%.
I mean, yeah, those stocks can't go up every day.
But yeah, they had a very, very hot start to the year.
Well, in this part, in this recently,
it has been going up every single day.
Was there any thoughts on the winter storm?
Every once in a while, Generac becomes a theme,
maybe around hurricanes and stuff,
and people like to play these ones.
I heard there was less than an inch or something in Dallas,
and people were freaking out.
Some snow and some ice.
I don't want to downplay anything, but I was just
seeing memes.
Yeah, I mean,
it's pretty...
I'm sure it's bad in a lot of places, but yeah,
I don't want to say pretty bad in Dallas
because I've seen worse in terms
of snow and ice, but I mean,
it's not
usual.
The roads were pretty bad this weekend.
You guys' grid sucks.
Huh?
Yeah, our grid was fine this weekend.
I didn't have any power outages.
So I guess that's an incrementally positive sign.
But our grid does suck, yes.
But, yeah, it's been fine.
I mean, it's been fine.
It's not like it's been a disaster
scenario i don't want to pretend like it's the worst that it has been it's just been a little
cold um i haven't tried to make any plays on on on the snow season if you will i think generac
usually is a good one like you mentioned um that tends to have some seasonal strength around this
time i actually think the generac chart is daily chart looks really nice here you know popped above all the moving averages last couple sessions and now retesting
support at the 100 day got confirmed today a solid nice little bounce off the load so i think
that chart looks great um plow is another one that people are looking at uh plow that chart
looks great too mystic brought that one up to me a couple weeks ago i don't really know this one yeah they do um like i think they i think they make commercial plows but i'm not sure i haven't
looked into it either but uh that's char looks great too um so yeah a lot of the snow plays
look good um you know i think you probably see a nice quarter for generac i wouldn't be surprised if that stock's 200 bucks um later this year so yeah there are um a lot of stocks out there to to play the snow season with
if that's something you're interested in but that's too short term of a of a catalyst for
me to be particularly interested in um not sustainable enough of a catalyst i don't want
to be like oh it's snowy so i'm gonna buy
some stocks because of that like that's not it's not really like the type of thesis building i do
but yeah there are people out there that like to make trades like that like they're look there
are quick money traders out there and then there are conviction traders i fall in the latter
category you know there are trades i see sometimes where i'm like oh i can make a quick buck there
and i'll take them i'm not like not like completely averse to doing that.
If I see a nice catalyst on the day, something I can scalp, I'll do that.
Like on the morning of the Greenland trade, I scalped a little bit of CRML because I knew that that was going to jump and it did.
But like so I'll do things like that.
But I won't commit to stocks unless I really like have a reason to do it.
Because, again, it goes back to the idea of conviction.
Like you you can't really hold anything for a long time unless you have a really good reason to hold it.
And the chart being nice is not enough of a reason, because if you're just trading the chart, you know, the first breakdown you see, you're going to be like, OK, that's a good exit signal.
Or the first reversal you see at the highs, you're going to use that as an exit signal.
And you're not going to hold the stock through volatility because, you know, this technical setup changed.
So for me, you have to have more than that to be confident to hold the stock for a long time.
And so I have to have those boxes checked. Otherwise,
I can't build conviction. And if I can't build conviction, then I can't hold the stock for a
long time. So it's pretty straightforward for me from that perspective. Like, you know, I'll get
people that'll tag me and stuff. And I'll be like, Hey, I like the chart. I don't know anything about
the company. And so, you know, I have to look into the company and understand the business model,
understand, you know, the debt load is the debt load sustainable what's their growth rate look like what are their peers trading at is it
a reasonable multiple compared to the peers once i get a yes on all those answers then yeah i'll
consider buying it but it's actually pretty rare for me to to get it all those boxes checked usually
a stock doesn't checks check one or more of those boxes, right? It might be
technically interesting. And then I look at it fundamentally and I'm like, oh, it trades at 100
times sales. I'm not touching that with a 10-foot pole. Or it might be fundamentally interesting.
And then I look at the chart and it's pinned below the 200-day moving average and it just
can't get above it and it keeps getting rejected. That's a no-go for me i'm not taking i don't enter stocks that are pinned below their 200-day moving average that's generally not a good sign so um it can be
there can be any number of disqualifiers but for me to like really put capital in and be like all
right i'm gonna hold this for a couple months all the boxes have to be checked because that's just
the way i operate and that's like where a a lot of my successes come from is making sure that multiple points of confluence are checked for every stock I open. Because
otherwise, I'd just be willy nilly, like I'd just be buying a bunch of stuff and selling a bunch of
stuff. And I don't want to operate like that. Because in the type of market we're in right now,
headline driven market, stocks can dump 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10% for any given number of reasons. Trump could just
say something and stocks could dump. So in a volatile headline driven market, if you don't
have conviction, you're just a sucker. You're just going to be buying and selling on a whim,
on gap ups and gap downs, because that's out of your control. The broader headline-driven market is
out of your control. And so the only thing that isn't in your control is the degree to which you
understand your holdings. That is in your control at all times, no matter what type of market you're
in. The degree to which you understand what you own is always in your control. And so that is the
part that I try to control. And once I've come to the conclusion that a stock is good enough for
me to hold because it checks all those boxes, then I try to stick with it. Now,
that's not always the case. Sometimes there's a really, really severe technical breakdown.
You know, the stock pops below the 21, pops below the 50, pops below the 200, just no signs of
support. I might be like, hey, I have a thesis here. I have the boxes checked. But technically,
the stock is not giving me any sort of response factor here. I need to reconsider my entry or
maybe buy this at a later date. That happens too. And then I just cut the stock and revisit it later.
Or maybe I don't revisit it. But yeah, I mean, that's just a little bit of a guide, I guess,
the way I think about these things. But it's really hard for me at this point after the three-year run that I've had for me to just take trades for the sake of it.
Like, I just don't do that, you know.
And I've left some money on the table as a consequence of that.
There are some meme stocks that I was thinking about hitting at the beginning of the year that I didn't that have done very well.
So I've left some money on the table, but I've also done very well this year. You know, I'm, I'm up 43% still year to date,
even after this pullback, these last two sessions. So I'm doing just fine. I don't
have a problem with my performance. I don't have a problem with my holdings.
I don't see any individual stocks that I own having severe technical breakdowns.
So I'm just kind of in a chill state of mind right now, just waiting for things to develop.
And, you know, when they do, then, you know, maybe I'll be a little bit more reactive and responsive.
But for now, I just see some consolidation in markets.
You know, SMID caps were very, very hot to start the year.
Now we've seen a little bit of a pullback in those names.
Large caps have started to wake up these last couple of sessions.
Some relative values and traditional industry has started to wake up. That's a good thing to see. I mean,
we saw that in November of December of last year, and then it catalyzed another leg to this bull run
that we've seen these last couple of months. So I think blips of rotation are healthy as long as
they don't last too long. You can't have the tech trade pinned for too long. All the market
capitalization is there. I've said this many many times the market can't survive without tech so you do need tech and small caps and speculative names
to join the fray um and they have for most of the most of the start of this year it's just really
this last week where they've taken a little bit of a breather and i think that's totally fine and
totally healthy price action wise by the way a lot of these names resetting to their 21 EMAs.
That's healthy.
Some of these names resetting, you know, their nine EMAs.
That's healthy.
Some of the stronger ones.
So that's fine to see.
You know, stocks can't be green every day.
You have to be welcoming and willing to withstand the volatility.
Yeah, that does make sense.
We do have two minutes until the market close here.
There aren't really too many earnings coming up after the close today.
Stock talk, I hinted here, Leo.
I can see you're playing there a little bit with him.
But I did want to ask you, what do you use, like what website or like tools do you use
to get your fundamental analysis?
Just like you were talking about just the basic business company expensive.
Do they have that?
Do you just go to websites?
Do you go to investor relations websites?
I'll just pull up the filings and look at their balance sheet.
If you don't want to do that, I mean, you certainly don't need to pay a subscription to do fundamental analysis.
I do not believe that you need to do that.
You can go on FinViz for free and see most of the financial metrics.
You go on Earnings Hub, which I use frequently that we talk about a lot here.
It's not like we're just shilling it.
We actually use it.
That's a great place where you can get a quick recap.
You're not going to be able to see the whole balance sheet, but you can get a quick recap of what the stock is trading at, what's the price to sales, what's the P,
what's the... What you really do is you actually look at the investor relations
websites. Yes. I actually look at the actual balance
sheet. Yes. But I also don't think that that's necessary.
I don't think you have to do that. I look at the balance sheet because I want, you know,
sometimes there's stuff hidden in the balance sheet that isn't apparent when you look at like a breakdown on one of these compiling data compiling websites, but you don't need to do that.
care about completeness and like not missing anything.
Yes, go look at the balance sheet in the filings directly.
But you can also just look at Finviz or earnings hub
or any of these, I mean Yahoo Finance,
these guys all have all of the financial fundamental data.
And one thing you should be careful about is PE,
which can vary depending on if they're using GAP
or non-GAP metrics.
And also you wanna be careful about EV over EBITDA.
Some sites misstate the debt that a company has.
This is where the benefit of looking at the actual filings is,
is because you can see where these data compiling sites might be wrong.
They do have some inconsistencies.
So you have to be careful about that with some of
these metrics. But overall, you can get most of the information you need for free. And for those
of you that are new to both technical and fundamental analysis, you don't need to pay
for anything. If you're new to reading a chart or you're new to reading a balance sheet, you really
shouldn't and don't
need to pay for any sources to do that. The free information is more than enough for you to get a
grasp on the basics. And then once you've got a grasp of the basics and you understand the basics
of like valuing a company, you know, and you know which industries you should be using price to sales
versus using ARR versus using price to free cash flow versus using price to
earnings. Once you make that distinction and you know which sort of industries that those metrics
are relevant to and how to create those metrics or how to look at those metrics and compare them,
then you have a much better understanding of how to value companies on a basic level.
And if you combine that with how to analyze charts on a basic level. And if you combine that with how to analyze charts
on a basic level, like chart reading 101,
just volume, moving averages, and price,
combine those two things,
you'll just be a better stock picker overnight.
And most people can learn that in a weekend.
And then third, the hardest part really in my view
is the thematic integration,
which is once you have made a technical
and fundamental
judgment call, going to things and saying, okay, is this a sustainable theme? How long
do I think it'll last? You know, what are the potential catalysts that could continue
to drive the theme? Do I think the environment's's gonna be catalyst rich? Why do I think that?
Yada, yada, yada, you can make those conclusions.
That's the harder part in my view
is like the sector analysis, the category analysis,
the industry analysis, that's the harder part.
But once you get your bearings around doing that
and you also have a grasp on the fundamentals and technicals,
you'll be a pretty good stock picker with just just those three things now all the rest of it is just experience
and time and instinct but that just comes over time but if you just understand how to categorize
and analyze those three things you'll be a pretty good stock picker you'll be better than the pack
um in my view i don't think you need much more than that
by the way these entire spaces are recorded so once we close down we start pretty much right
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We appreciate you all.
But yeah, follow the speakers.
It is 4.05-ish p.m. Eastern.
There's a couple earnings after the post today, none major.
But StockSniper, do we have you?
Yes, sir.
You hear me all right? Yeah, sniper do we have you yes sir you hear me all right um yeah yeah we got you i know united healthcare reports earnings tomorrow before the open ups boeing etc just
after the close today there's really just new uh new core not too many earnings but uh you got any
anything you're watching today after the close have they already come out you know not for the
earning side i think that today was pretty much the last cool and chill day for quite a while.
It seems like we're going to be rocking and rolling every single day after close for quite a while after today.
But yeah, just like you were saying, tomorrow before open, United Health Group, Boeing, TXN after close,
ASML Starbucks on Wednesday before open, General Electric as well.
And then after close on Wednesday,
it's going to be one of the biggest days of the quarter.
We got Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta,
all reporting earnings within 15 minutes of each other.
I'm pretty excited to see that one.
And then also on Thursday before market opens,
one of the greatest companies in the world,
Lockheed Martin will be reporting earnings.
I'm really looking forward towards that one.
I have to say, I'm going to just talk about a general, what caught
my attention today in the market and what I spent the most time reading about. I have to say the
CoreWeave NVIDIA deal is pretty interesting. Did we talk about this at all yet? Not too much.
Yeah. So for anybody who might've missed the headline, it pretty much came out early this
morning around 8.15, or at least that's when I saw it.
NVIDIA is going to be investing $2 billion into CoreWeave.
One of the most interesting parts of this, and the part that's really catching my attention,
is they're going to be providing and supplying, CoreWeave will be providing and supplying over 5.0 gigawatts of power.
This is going to put them in the top five power producers nationwide right now.
It's pretty much comparable to Meta, to NRG Energy, to Grid Free, but there's not many guys
that are producing more than five gigawatts of power. Now, when you take a look at some of the
other data center stocks that especially are some of the popular ones like Iron, Cipher, etc.,
you notice that they're down pretty hard. I want to
just really kind of clear the air and explain that I don't think that that dip at all is really
related towards CoreWeave's deal. I'll get in towards that a little bit more. But one thing
that you have to look at is when you look over the weekend, and you see Bitcoin going from 93,000
to 87,000 over the course of the weekend, And you understand that for a lot of these data centers, the plan B or how they're existingly
getting revenue is through Bitcoin mining.
And as Bitcoin has a lower valuation, obviously, you're going to see these kind of pull back
a bit.
But just because CoreWeave is going to be producing more power than anticipated, that doesn't really exactly devalue a lot of the other miners or a lot of the other data centers.
These data centers slash miners, whatever you want to call them.
It's pretty much like we're still in a situation where there's lots of power that's needed and the infrastructure needs to continuously be built up throughout this year.
And the infrastructure needs to continuously be built up throughout this year.
And it's going to be pretty interesting to see how they're going to find a way to get
the supply to meet the demand of power that we're going to see with all these AI advancements,
especially when we're rolling in towards some of the more fully autonomous stuff, especially
like humanoid robots.
A lot of the different new agents and next level AI stuff, past the existing
prompts and everything that we've already known and what we've already been using.
But for all these new developments, it's going to need even more power than we anticipate
and significantly more than what we have right now.
Now, just because CoreWeave has now, or will have eventually, five gigawatts again, like
I said, and I want to compare
this towards something somebody said quite a while ago.
But just because the value of gas would go down, that doesn't devalue the cars.
There's still going to be a lot to demand for AI infrastructure, and the supply is not
going to meet the demand as of right now, how it looks.
So I personally see all the dip in the other miner names or data
center names as unrelated to the CoreWeave NVIDIA $2 billion deal. I think that this is more so a
result of Bitcoin pulling back. And like we saw in the morning, we saw CoreWeave up well over 13%.
It was really up there. And we're looking at it at close now when we got 5% and change.
This pretty much tells you that a lot of this was kind of, a lot of the gains were kind of given back.
But again, Bitcoin was terrible over the weekend.
And when we see CoreWeave still outperforming all the other guys, that is despite Bitcoin's pullback, that tells you the strength of this deal.
Bitcoin's pullback, that tells you the strength of this deal. I think that we got to keep a look
for a lot of these guys reporting earnings on Wednesday and throughout the week. There's a
potential that we could see some more infrastructure deals come. I think that within 14 days from
right now, there will be at least one more infrastructure deal. I don't want to tell you
who. I don't know who. But it certainly seems like there's a lot of talks in the town, a lot of rumors and a lot of whispers about additional infrastructure deals coming within the next week.
And I think that that's going to be something pretty interesting to watch, could be revealed on some of these earnings calls.
Yes, I would love to hear Stock Talk's take on that before we do get over to that there was a
headline while you were speaking trump administration is reportedly proposing
roughly flat rates for medical insurers next year an update that falls well short of wall
street expectations i'm seeing according to the wall street journal article stocks like united
health care down eight percent in after hours unh is down eight percent
in after hours so i had mine come out while i was speaking as well that iran is apparently
looking for a deal now yeah so a lot happening
okay stock talk i'd love to hear your take.
Did you read into this core weave and video deal this morning?
I did not. No, this is not, not a stock that I follow very closely.
I saw the news. I did not read into the deal. No. Yeah. Same here.
If I'm being real, that's kind of where my, uh, where I am at on these boats,
the core weaves, the irons, etc. of the world, they're pretty popular.
Mr. Sam Solid, is this something that you look into as well?
I feel like you talk about it on your show, The Solid Report.
2.45 p.m. Eastern to 3.45 p.m. Eastern.
Wonderful show. Great dive stream.
Thank you very much.
I was looking a little bit into it,
and I'm really going to attribute this to even mentioning Great dive, Shane. Thank you very much. I was looking a little bit into it,
and I'm really going to attribute this to even mentioning some of the Bitcoin miners
and Neoclouds pulling back as well.
I think a lot of it,
you know, there's a bit of excitement in the morning,
but I think when you really think about the deal,
so they're basically investing $2 billion into CoreWeave
at around $87.20.
Actually, not around.
That is the price that they're going to be buying it at.
CoreWeave was $108 earlier.
In return, CoreWeave is going to build 5 gigawatts of data center compute,
and it's going to do it mostly in NVIDIA chips.
NVIDIA already owns a lot of CoreWeave,
and 90% of NVIDIA's venture portfolio is pretty much in CoreWeave. And 90% of NVIDIA's venture portfolio
is pretty much in CoreWeave.
And really think about it,
they're basically putting $2 billion into CoreWeave.
So CoreWeave is going to be able to,
the price appreciated off of that one.
And they're going to be basically investing this money
back in NVIDIA chips.
And I don't think that they're going to basically
give NVIDIA $2 billion worth of chips
or buy $2 billion worth of chips.
But I think a lot of it
is like, hey, here's some money. And then it incentivized CoreWeave to basically build out
more compute using NVIDIA's compute. And I don't want to say that it's circular investing, but it's
like you're kind of investing yourself in that sort of case. I mean, there obviously is an
advantage here to have that extra $2 billion of capital in stock being bought.
But at the same time,
if you look at it from a technical perspective,
at some point, Corv is going to bounce
from a price chart perspective.
But even on the chart,
it doesn't even look that attractive right now.
And you do have a lot of these neoclods and miners
bouncing pretty considerably.
And I would even argue, part of it probably is because of the price of Bitcoin is dropping.
But I think Nebius also faded like basically a 10% to 11%, 12% move intraday.
And they're in a pretty nasty downtrend.
Like I don't think that trend reversed or anything and everything's going to go back up.
But I think right now, I think that this whole pullback that we saw in software and the queues that we saw recently,
I think that was pretty much an excuse to rotate into other parts of the market as well. And
maybe it was software, it's still too soon to tell, but you're clearly seeing a lot of
appreciation in mega cap stocks.
And that ultimately is going to bring the indices up, right?
Like this is like 50% of the entire stock market.
So if Apple is up 3% today, Google is up 2% today, if Meta is up 2% today, if Microsoft is up almost 2% today, then the market's going to move up.
Like that's, what is that, like $15 trillion in market cap just like propelling upwards?
Like that's very difficult to write off, even though Tesla is down 3%,
Nvidia is down 1%.
It doesn't matter.
The market is just coming back because historically speaking,
earnings season, especially the mega caps time,
so these two weeks is historically bullish for the stock market.
It's very difficult to be bearish stock market during these times.
And really what you're praying for as a bear is for one of them to miss so widely or release such bad news that their stock is down
like 10% plus after us, which if anything, these earning events usually end up becoming just a
massive option selling event, at least for Apple, it usually is insane. They were at Tesla too.
These premiums are just so high on these implied volatility moves for these earnings for these bankhead companies that if they close flat, the option buyers or the option premium buyers, they're going to lose out massively because you don't need a 2% or 3% move.
You need like a 5% or 10%, 5% or 8% move in a lot of these stocks.
I do think you're going to have to expect volatility this week.
I mean, up and down, both directions.
Like the Fed is reporting on Wednesday.
You have Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Meta reporting
in Wednesday and Thursday.
Not only that, but you also have a lot of software needs reporting,
ServiceNow is reporting on Wednesday.
A lot of semiconductor companies.
You have SanDisk, Western Digital reporting on Thursday.
You know, it's just, I don't see anything crazy saying the market's going to fall off
a cliff.
I think we needed that confirmation to continue lower after we went below the 50-day moving
average last week.
But like, we just recovered.
Like, it's just, I was talking about this on the show earlier.
Like, this keeps getting bought up.
50-day moving average drops.
Keeps getting bought up.
50-day moving average drops. Keeps getting bought up. And at some point, it's not going to
work anymore, and it won't come back up. But like, it's just, the market just wants to stay up here,
right? Like, it's, I don't, I guess what I don't understand is people are like, constantly trying
to short the market thinking that it's going to be the top today, when it's like, just wait,
right? Like, it's just, there's really nothing to do right now. Like, there's really nothing to do in terms of portfolio right now.
There's nothing to chase.
I mean, you know, some software stocks are in attractive valuations.
But, you know, if you're trying to chase a move or whatever, I think chasing has pretty
much bit a lot of people in the face recently, right?
Like, we've basically just been a massive consolidation for a long period of time on
Bitcoin and everything.
Like, we haven't even tested the November lows
in Bitcoin yet, right?
So crypto, you saw last week,
it went to this level and just ripped all the 96k
and back down to this level.
Like anything can happen, right?
So when it comes to this news,
I mean, I don't think it's like groundbreaking that,
hey, look, NVIDIA is buying $2 billion worth of CoreWeave. Like they already own a lot of CoreWeave. I don't think it's groundbreaking that, hey, look, NVIDIA is buying $2 billion worth of CoreWeave.
They already own a lot of CoreWeave.
I don't think it's going to matter that much.
I don't think it's going to make a big deal.
I don't think it's like, wow, five gigawatts of capacity.
It's like, well, I mean, that surprise in the market where all of these data center companies and miner companies, whatever, are calling for a multiple gigawatts capacity.
That time has passed.
That excitement has passed.
What they're looking forward to now is that $3 billion plus of AAR that we've been promised for a long time.
And you're not going to get it this quarter with IREN.
Like IREN guided for the end of 2026, $3 to $5 billion of AAR.
Nebius around the same thing too.
You're not going to see it this quarter, right?
It's just, if that's what you're buying toward, you're buying call options that expire
after the iron earnings next week
or after nebbiest earnings soon.
Like, I don't know.
That's very risky.
You know, I would think that's the time to buy these dips
was probably a couple of weeks back.
If you missed it, you might have to wait
or you can do whatever trading you want to do.
But has there been any massive things to buy lately?
I think what we've been saying,
what's been looking like to me is just a massive consolidation, right? And if you chase the rare
earth material stock this morning, you got your face ripped off. If you chase a lot of stuff this
morning, you got your face ripped off, right? Or if you didn't chase the right things, you missed
it, right? It's just, I think it's just, you got to be a little bit patient when it comes to stock market.
I was talking a lot about it earlier on the show.
Like, you just got to be patient.
Wait for that move to come to you.
And if we are really in the beginning stages of the Industrial Revolution, there's going to be plenty of plays later.
You don't need to jump on the plays that are happening today.
on the plays that are happening today.
You can always just wait for it to come to you.
You could always just wait for it to come to you.
Sam, do you have any thoughts
on gold, silver, copper,
these rare earths, any of the other ones?
They've been quite the conversation recently.
I'm sure it's come up in your world,
but I wonder if ones that you've dabbled in at all
or you've avoided.
I didn't think it was a top a few weeks ago,
but if I had to say that there's a higher probability
of being a top,
I feel like this is more closer to a top
than anything today.
Just because you're seeing a lot of moves
in a lot of things running in the last few weeks
starting to fade today. And usually,
usually the top signal is when you get like the utmost bullish news, but the market,
the stock still closes down that day. And I think that's, unless we see more catalysts,
right? A lot of these rare earth mineral companies, you saw a massive fade today.
Like you see just bearish engulfing across the board with the really good news we saw over the
weekend. So I would be careful when it comes to a lot of these commodities. I'm not a commodity
trader, but you've had a crazy move in silver, like almost a 50, almost a hundred percent run this year to date.
Right. So if you're looking to buy silver or copper here today, you better have a nailed down
thesis and expect not saying don't expect, you better expect to have some drawdown. Like you
cannot buy this copper chart and say, this is going straight up or just be like setting a stop,
buy this copper chart and say this is going straight up or just be like setting a stop
like 1% lower.
If you're buying copper today, you either got to have a stop or you're going to have
a rock hard thesis or just DCA into it.
I feel like that's something.
I know a lot of people are buying copper, right?
I'm sure they're not buying at the money calls expiring a couple of months from now hoping
it'll go higher.
And if you are, then good luck, right?
But if you're buying like CopEx shares, which Amit's buying a lot of, from now hoping it'll go higher. And if you are, then good luck, right? But if you're buying like CopEx shares,
which, you know, Amit's buying a lot of,
like he's not planning on selling anytime soon, right?
He's not going to be like,
oh, it's down 20%, I'm going to sell, right?
So I would say if you're going to be buying this
for long term, then you better hold on to volatility.
Otherwise, it's like the trade has already passed.
I don't see a trade on the
table to the upside for these right now. And, but at the same time, I'm not shorting this shit.
Like I, I, it's just, people were talking about shortening silver three weeks ago and you, maybe
you were right for like an hour or two or maybe a day or two, but then that's it. You got your face
ripped off, right? It's just why short parabolic stocks? I just feel like that's the worst use of your capital.
It's not even a high probability rate,
given the timing.
Yeah, there's thoughts.
I also wanted to ask Stock Talk
about what he thinks about the IONQ Skywater deal.
I know he's familiar with Skywater.
I was looking into this
before and holy bejesus, I didn't think the thing was going to run 100% by not just buying it. But
I don't know. What are your thoughts about that one? Because the price is actually pretty
interesting today. I know they have that collar deal, but I know a lot of these acquisitions have
collar deals around some of the acquisitions. What are your thoughts around it?
some of the acquisitions.
What are your thoughts around it?
Yeah, I think it's interesting.
I mean, it's a shit co buying a real company
because the stock has gone up so much.
I mean, IonQ is just a terrible company.
They're, you know, zero growth organically.
They buy all their growth.
It's just not a quality company.
You know, it's quite literally a shit go. So them having the market capitalization they do have today and, you know, whatever, 15, 16 billion market cap, being able to pull off an acquisition
like this of a real foundry is interesting. I don't know what the hell Skywater's team was thinking.
I don't know how they pulled this off because, I mean, Skywater started off this year one of the
hottest starts in the market. It's a name I traded last year. I didn't get back into it this year.
I should have, but I didn't. But I traded successfully last year a little bit. What I will say about this is I don't know what they said.
Like, I don't know what the proposition was that got them to do this, but
yeah, I don't know. The premium is just not high enough for me to understand why this happened.
If they bought them out at $50 or $60 a share, I'd have been like, okay, go for it.
But yeah, I don't know.
I don't know what they said to Skywater's team to convince them of this.
But this is a non-real business buying a real business at barely any market premium.
And most of the deal is in stock,
which is insane. And yeah, they're putting a collar on the stock, which actually
numbed the reaction a little bit today. Skywater was only up about 3% on the news
after being up about 10% in pre-market. So there clearly is a little hesitancy that maybe this
deal does fall apart at some point. But I think a lot of Skywater shareholders are going to vote against that deal.
And I also think that, like, there's, you know, a there's an attempt here by IonQ to build a real business through acquisition.
through acquisition.
And at this point, the one positive thing for IonQ that this does
is it does put a valuation floor in for IonQ.
Because prior to this, I don't think they had a valuation floor.
And now they do because they will effectively own a real business.
And so, yeah, the company's worth at least a couple billion bucks at this point.
So it's better for them than I think it is for Skywater.
I hope they manage the asset well. It's an interesting asset.
And, you know, they have a potential to be this this first sort of quantum foundry in the United States, which is an interesting proposition.
But, yeah, it's it's it's one of the weirder acquisitions I've seen in a long time.
Obviously, it's not a big amount, dollar amount, $1.8 billion.
But it is a weird acquisition.
It's odd to me.
I don't know why Skywater's team agreed to this.
Unless Skywater's team knows something that we don't know,
which may be that their momentum isn't as strong as,
you know, people think it is.
That could be an issue where you look,
they've seen the stock go up a lot this year
and they wanted to take advantage of that.
Maybe, I don't know.
I think it's odd to be trading that for IONQ.
By IONQ.
I don't know.
Rather than IONQ, I guess so. I mean, Skywater had a really really nice try i thought that stock might go to
yeah 60 bucks i'm surprised i would be really upset if i was um like if i i i if i bought
skywater at 27 bucks or something where it was a couple weeks ago and arguably that would have even
been still a great entry point as well. Like
not as good as like 17 when I was thinking about buying it. I even talked about it in the show too.
And I'm like so pissed I didn't just do it. But arguably, if they came up with this deal
three weeks ago and it was announced, would that have been something that made more sense? Or does
it just not make as much sense from a financial standpoint
not a fundamental standpoint because you really got your thoughts on it like let's say skywater
was still 18 bucks and they came up to steal for 35 dollars that would be 100 premium on the market
cap about would it make more sense back then or does it just not make make sense because of the
price of skywater today yeah i mean maybe it would have you know been more compelling back then but i mean i mean
what it's been 26 days of the year and the stock's gone from 18 to 30 naturally i mean five days ago
the stock was higher than the acquisition price was 36 five days ago so i mean you know it wouldn't
have been a better deal at 18 yeah obviously it would have been a higher premium,
but they could have been talking about this deal all year for all we know.
You know, maybe IonQ came to them on January 1st and was like,
hey, we want to buy you.
And back then the stock was in 19, 20 bucks.
And, you know, they were like, hey, okay, so let's talk about it.
And it took them a couple of weeks to get the deal done.
And by that time, the stock had, you know,
nearly doubled.
So I don't know when this deal was conversation around this deal was open,
but it is still an odd deal to me that a real company like Skywater,
a real U S boundary that has real potential would sell their business to a
non-real company. or in my view, a shit co.
So that's just odd to me.
If it was an all-cash deal, maybe I'd be shrugging my shoulders and saying,
whatever, it's an all-cash deal, but it's not.
So that puzzles me. But I don't know.
I can't put myself in the minds of their management.
What I will say is if I was Skywater's management,
I would have said outright no.
So that's all I can say is that I would have not accepted that deal
if I was in Skywater's shoes, but, you know, I'm not.
Does this make you bullish at all on –
I'm forgetting who acquired the mine queue, right?
Does this make you bullish at all – a little bit more bullish on mine queue? Yeah. all on uh it's forgetting i'm forgetting who acquired them inq right this is making
bullish at all a little bit more bullish than inq i mean i wouldn't phrase it as more bullish
what i would say you don't want to be caught saying that i don't want i don't want to phrase
it that way i think it adds a dimension to their um valuation That's what I would say. It adds potentially a valuation floor
for the company. That's the most, I'll say. I'm not bullish on IonQ in any way, shape, or form.
I mean, yeah, no, I'm not. I'm not even going to get into detail on that. I'm not bullish on
that company, but yes, it makes them more of a real company. You can't get revenue on your own.
One way to do it is to just buy companies with revenue. So that's what they're doing here. And
they think there's an overlap here for them being a quantum foundry. I don't think quantum
technology is near ready for a foundry, but yeah, I don't know it's a it's a weird acquisition i don't think they should have accepted it
i'm puzzled by why they accepted it especially with the stock component uh is it a good thing for ion q yeah i guess you could say so
nice well we'll see if it gets uh gets put through i am curious also if any any shareholders of clearwater are in here i'd love to hear your guys thoughts on the deal ion q was down a little bit
a little bit today.
today what do you want to do
What did Clearwater do?
What's the name of the company?
Is it Clearwater Analytics?
No, it's not.
SkyT.
Nope.
SkyT.
It was up 3%.
Skywater.
I knew it was something with water.
Okay.
Up 3%.
Down a little bit in after hours.
Interesting.
Okay. Honestly. Okay.
Honestly, yeah.
Quantum's not my biggest thing,
but the stock's up 200% over the last year.
Whereas it's up 50% year-to-date.
I guess it does put a little bit of a cap on it.
Interesting.
Well, IowenQ is up like 6.5% and a half percent today and it's high
and it closed down almost eight percent so that that's just an that's just an interesting move
to be honest this unh thing just smells very fishy like it was they were reporting tomorrow
morning and then you had trump administration say something and then It is pretty unfortunate timing.
We'll see what they say on their earnings tomorrow.
Do you think it's just
a political move
because of all the stuff
happening with ICE right now?
And it's midterm election year
and his approval ratings
are probably going way, way lower
for the Republican Party.
And then if they say something like this,
even if it doesn't go into effect,
it makes them, quote unquote,
more likable. No, I think it doesn't go into effect, it makes them, quote unquote, more likable.
No, I think it's we saw what happened.
Lockheed Martin a few weeks ago.
Oh, these these defense companies can't do any buybacks or dividends anymore. And then all of a sudden, one point five trillion dollar investment defense.
And it's just like, OK, so that was a weird setup, right?
That's actually not a weird setup at all though because
that is telling you that the okay so there's going to be extra spending in defense and then
but he's telling them you can't use that to just pump up your stock price we want you to actually
use that capital to reinvest into growth for the business and push like the frontiers of defense so
i don't think that's relatable here.
I don't know.
I do think it's a little weird that it,
that it comes up the day before they have earnings,
but I guess we'll see how the earnings come up tomorrow.
I guess they're 8% less,
less risky than they were going into it.
If I were to guess a little bit lower,
if I was to guess Donald Trump or whoever decided that had zero clue or
cared that their
earnings are tomorrow.
I'm just saying that if a stock is up 8% plus tomorrow, then that just smells extremely
fishy.
If it's up, I mean, it could be up on those results.
Again, I don't think these things are related to their earnings at all.
No, I don't think it's related.
I don't think the news is related, but I've seen some crazy stuff happen in this market lately. And I don't think it's related i don't think the news is related but i've seen some crazy stuff
happen in this market lately and i don't know just kind of runs maybe just being skeptical but i'm
not going to try to play it it's just you know i've we've seen a lot i mean they could they could
potentially just uh say like they're going to give more entitlements to take over the costs
from taxpayers to specific or like i don't know like right like maybe the the specific patients pay less but there's like a lower premium i don't
know something like that someone else picks up the bill yeah last time i'm gonna say this and then
whoever can pin stuff up for a little bit tweet Tweet pinned up in the nest above is the link.
We are doing an in-person event.
I won't do this every day either way, but we're just really excited for this.
August 3rd, save the date.
New York City, come in if you're near the area.
Definitely should pay attention to this.
My headphone just gave a notification.
It's almost going to die.
We are doing an in-person event, August 3rd.
Save the date.
It's a monday
tweet pinned up in the nest above there's a link there which will kind of take you to a page
we want some of your feedback on stuff that you that you need to have happening there we uh whatever
you guys want to make sure that we do at that event which will drive the most value that is
what we want to do on the day so go fill out out that form. Once we do start doing ticketing,
we will have an early bird thing,
which will have the cheapest tickets that they're going to be.
So if you guys,
and we will obviously send it
to you guys on the list,
include the email as well.
But we want your feedback
on an in-person event
that we are planning to do.
A lot of stuff is happening this year.
We're excited.
Check that tweet pinned up
in the nest above.
Okay, cool. You guys can feel whatever for a little bit but um stock talk i want to bring sorry i want to bring it back to you about uh earnings we've we've talked about it i know and
we'll have plenty of time going forward we'll be able to ask you what do you think about tesla
earnings at microsoft and whatever but it is a very heavy earnings season this week. What are you watching?
Obviously the mega cap ones are pretty important as well in general. What are you gonna be paying attention to this week?
Yeah, we have Tesla we have
What do I have also let me pull up my
portfolio I have else? Let me pull out my portfolio.
I have a couple this week.
I have VIV, which had a nice day today, actually
pushed into 20.
That's on the 28th.
Tesla's on the 28th.
Most of mine are
first
and second week of Feb.
That's when you have ENS, HII, Sina, Amcor.
Those are all first and second week of Feb.
So that'll be bigger for me.
But this week, just Tesla and Biavi is really where my focus is going to be.
Obviously, I'll look at the other mega caps too, just to, you know,
I always look at those earnings just to get cues of what's going to be, obviously I'll look at the other mega caps too, just to, you know, I always look at those earnings just to get cues of what's going on,
in the broader tech environment.
But,
yeah,
that's pretty much it for me this week,
but Tesla and,
and via V on Wednesday,
both on Wednesday.
We also have Jerome,
Jerome Powell speaking on Wednesday too.
That day,
that day is Wednesday too.
And then the same day Tesla, Microsoft and Meta also report earnings.
No interest in either of those?
Any secondary?
I mean, I don't see no interest.
I look at every Mike 7 earnings.
But is there going to be actionable details on most of them?
No, probably not.
So, yeah, I mean, I look at them.
I don't ignore them.
I look at MedCap earnings every season.
I just don't own all of them, so it's not always relevant.
But, yeah, I will be watching those.
I will be watching the big names.
I always do.
You excited for Apple earnings?
I'm not going to have a particular opinion on a lot of them.
You excited for Apple earnings?
I mean, no, I don't own Apple.
I'm certainly not excited for those earnings.
Did you see the breaking news today from Apple?
I haven't heard anything exciting from Apple in five years.
Breaking news from Apple today came out.
A new AirTag dropped today.
They upgraded it.
Wow.
Mind-blowing.
There was some stuff over the weekend
with them and Google that the first features
that they had were going to be coming next month.
Evan, what's the new AirTag?
What does it do specifically?
I was just kidding.
It doesn't do anything.
I don't find it too useless.
It's a different color.
I think it's a new chip so it has further range
on certain things.
Probably better charging.
Next generation AirTag.
Best selling item finder is
easier to locate with more powerful
precision finding, a longer Bluetooth range
and a louder speaker.
AirTags work just well. know what they're busy upgrading let me let me tell you that's great for
consumers but for the stock it does not matter you know it's good for great you know make our
products better yeah i i thought i thought that was a really cool idea pretty innovative but i
just don't think it was yeah like i agree with you i don't think it does anything for the company
it's a four trillion dollar company dude no one cares like you know
we're at the point of we're the point of paint jobs and battery replacements being called next
generation by Apple that's where we're at now yeah you paint something baby blue if you paint
something baby blue or orange, that's next generation.
Next gen.
I want to say that this is like basically, you know, our modern day consumer staple,
which it basically is.
And I was going to say like, oh, you know, it's entering its, you know, Coke or Procter
and Gamble era.
But the difference is that it's a $4 trillion company.
So it's a lot harder to, you know, get consistent returns, for sure.
I would be surprised that becomes like a 4% dividend at some point. you know, get consistent returns for sure.
I would be surprised that it becomes like a 4% dividend at some point.
I don't know if it'll ever be a true staple though, because like,
it's not affordable. Yeah, and their core product is still under attack.
Not affordable at all.
Yeah, exactly.
Like iPhone, like if anything, Android's...
Dude, my friend has been Android forever,
and now he has Blue Texts.
I don't know what's going on,
but he has red receipts.
It's seamless now.
I'm pretty sure you can FaceTime me,
so if that keeps happening,
and then their products are cheaper and better,
I don't know.
Could definitely challenge the iPhone.
Did your friend buy it because it was cheaper or probably not?
He's just, I mean, look, let's be real, like Android phones for the most part,
like the Samsungs, the notes, et cetera, they are actually much better
technological products than the OS is just not even comparable.
That's a problem.
Yeah.
And you know, that's something, you know, it's Google product.
It'll, it'll get there. I'm not really too concerned really too concerned about that but um so he's just always like that
but now i'm just a sucker for the ecosystem me too me too yeah no totally but if they like pulling
out your airpods and just like opening them and just like auto connecting and like being able to
swap seamlessly from your mac to your iphone it's like things like that is why I own Apple products. But I don't think they have a competitor ecosystem-wise or even close.
Like in terms of like a fully integrated hardware ecosystem,
it's hardware and software ecosystem.
I mean, there's not really like Android's ecosystem is pretty buggy and lame.
Yeah, no, for sure.
They don't focus on personal computing and stuff like that.
But, you know, again, if they're already getting online with like these blue text messages
like we get on iPhones.
Yeah, but then again, like the seamless integrations between products, I don't know if they'll
get there.
And, you know, I think about like Microsoft Windows products, right?
Like so if you have Microsoft Office, like you have Excel, if anyone listening to this has used Excel on a Mac,
you want to like kill yourself when you're using that.
I personally only use Windows computers,
Windows machines specifically,
because I use Excel a good amount.
Point being like, yeah, you're not going to get
that level of integration across these mega cap
tech names they're just like going to be like no we're going to hold on to what's ours and
not allow for that to integrate i just have a lot of apple products
so i don't know in stock
by the way we just got i see josh down below we'll need you to get up here at some point soon
maybe not today but in the near future maybe i'll send you a message get a good oil energy talk
today actually maybe it is today but someone uh one of the people who answered the thing up in
the nest above asked for which energy company will be the leader of the group that's what they
want to find out from the in-person event. So maybe we need a Josh Young
appearance in person.
Shout out to that.
Someone just said they want
Stock Talk Weekly.
What's up, Josh?
Hey, how's it going?
How you doing, sir?
By the way,
if you happen to be in New York August august 3rd well at least we should talk or we're
doing a in-person event but that is besides the point what's i saw this little post or headline
that came across my my way over this weekend something was over six dollars for the first
time i think it was natural gas in the u.s over natural gas prices hit over $6 for the first time in the United States.
We've got over seven. Wow. Since 2022. What's happening. Uh, what's happening with that?
Yeah, well, it's, uh, I mean, you know, mostly just weather, uh, you know, when it's a little,
little colder than expected in the winter, a little warmer than expected in the summer,
you end up with, uh, much higher natural gas prices natural gas prices but uh that was just for the um february contract which actually clears in january in a
couple days and then sort of confusingly and then it um the next month uh you roll down to like 370
or so so huge move for one month and actually the cash price was even higher. I saw some folks
were trading some physical around $50 at MCF. So that's pretty exciting, I guess, if you were
expecting to sell your gas for like $350 and you get to sell it for $50. That really moves the
needle. I saw you guys were, the headline was gold, silver, copper, and more.
Were you guys talking about some base metals over there?
You a gold, silver, copper guy?
You been to any of these?
So I owned calls on silver.
And I started with calls on gold miners like two years ago.
I think I first bought them three years ago and lost money
and then bought another set and did great,
and then bought some calls on silver miners and lost money,
then did it again and did great.
I got out of the last ones like two weeks ago,
and I was experiencing tremendous pain as I watched Silver just, you know,
I was like, okay, went to 95.
I'm like real happy.
I got my like multiple times return
on my options after losing money earlier.
So great.
And then it was very painful watching it go up.
But it looks like I'm not really a technical analyst,
but man, like something like spikes higher
and then comes way back down on high volume.
That's after moving parabolically.
I don't know. I'm not, I can't call the top top on silver but this looks a lot like what a top would look like um so i guess
i was curious if you guys had talked about it if you had any views on that i know it's sort of like
people are chasing down anyone that's like not super bullish silver at this point we the conversation
was basically yeah that that we're very high up here when the trade has played out
you know it's you're not we're not going to chase stuff up here a little bit now did i buy some
some copper maybe i did a little bit and i probably did that mean the top it probably does
but that doesn't mean that it's the long-term top we'll see maybe it does actually so the crazy
thing so i was thinking that i posted this like many, many times, like silver or gold, silver, copper, oil, the sort of the trajectory and like some of the other base metals sort of come in somewhere in the middle there. any commodity cycles. But I saw that the Chinese government and I guess Chinese industry,
they'd been selling huge amounts of physical copper. It was in a Bloomberg article and found
a chart and we're sharing it, whatever. And so to me, that, you know, people say there's going to
be this big supply deficit for copper. And there was one big mine that went down, one of the biggest,
the Freeport Macraman has it, you know, Greaseburg or something. It went down,
had some flooding issues and other issues, but the actual physical market, you know,
China was the incremental buyer and now they're the incremental seller. And so,
I don't know, I'm way less excited about copper. I'm just sort of staying out of that.
I know the miners' stocks have gone up a lot, and the price is up a little,
not nearly as much as you saw silver or gold or whatever.
But I don't know.
I feel like China sort of moved the price on these precious metals,
and they're moving the price on copper too, but just the other direction.
So, to me, it's less exciting.
Can I ask you while we have you, what are your thoughts on steel?
I mean, honestly, like, I'm just like pretending to be a metals expert.
I don't know anything about any of this stuff.
I just, you know, I stare at these charts a lot to try to figure out what's going on for oil.
figure out what's going on for oil and so this is the best i can tell and um steel um i did see a
And so this is the best I can tell.
really interesting post here on x about a week and a half ago where they talked about this very
large iron ore mine that came on that the chinese government apparently funded via one of their
belt and road initiatives and that um has really suppressed the price of iron ore. And they were talking about how basically the, there's like a, I forget the name of the term. And they incurred that even though it's
likely to earn a low or even negative total return, even though it's low cost, but if you
spend $20 billion, you're going to make $1 billion a year for 10 years, you don't get your money back.
But they save so much money on their imports that their payback is two years, not, you know, never, because it pushes the whole cost curve down for iron ore.
So why does that matter? Iron ore is the primary input for steel.
You have iron ore, met coal, and, you know, some other energy and, you know, physical infrastructure and transport and so on.
infrastructure and transport and so on. So, and labor to a lesser extent. So if you suppress the
So, and labor to a lesser extent.
price for iron ore, and the markets for steel, to some extent are local, because of tariffs and
because of other stuff that's going on. So it might, the market for steel here in the US might
end up being a little disconnected from the market for Chinese steel,
but that that's maybe the most educated comment I can make is just the,
the, the iron ore price is being suppressed via overinvestment from,
uh, Chinese strategic investment. And unlike most Chinese, uh,
you know, people talk about the,
these like ghost cities that China's built and extra roads, bridges to nowhere, whatever.
This is actually, it's quite intelligent and quite an effective way to affect a commodity price through sponsoring projects that wouldn't have gotten built otherwise and then using them for large strategic imports.
for large strategic imports.
So, I mean, I wouldn't be too excited
about steel prices anytime soon,
just on the back of the largest input price
getting crushed from a mine that just came on.
When did that come on?
Just a week and a half ago, you said?
That article came out.
I actually don't remember the mine.
This is, it's a little, again, like I said,
this isn't, it was just, I read about it,
thought it was really interesting,
thought I would share it in response to that.
But I have to go back and I'm looking for it right now.
I'll find it and I will message it to you.
But it's not something that just happened in the last day or so.
No, no, no.
That mine came on, I think.
I actually don't remember when it came on.
It's possible it might not be fully on.
It might be ramping up or something. But again, I just thought it was such an interesting framework for understanding because, you know, the U.S. government has been funding now some of stakes and debt stakes and warrants and stuff
and some of the higher cost producers.
And China is sort of doing it the other way.
And just very, very interesting.
So I think the companies that and the commodities that the US government's getting involved with
are mostly rising.
The commodity prices are rising like lithium, tungsten, and so on.
But the prices of the commodities
that China's getting involved with are mostly falling.
So I would point to,
and I don't know the specific,
the spot price for iron where it's possible
it's up a little recently.
But similar dynamic to copper
where I just wouldn't be,
I wouldn't be looking personally to go buy more of it.
Fair enough.
Yeah.
I mean, I just followed this Cleveland Cliffs company
and the chart was looking really good.
And the company specific things,
they rolled off some really low margin contracts recently.
And I think that's been affecting their P&L in the past.
And so I think future P&L is going to look a lot better for that business.
And then also, since you had US Steel Corp get acquired in this last year, they're one
of the only ways to get exposure to US steel.
So I really liked it.
But today's candle on the stock was very ugly.
And I'm just trying to understand if there's something there or if it just got bunched up with a lot of the fades in the rare earth kind of metal precious metals uh sell off today
so so again the the specifics as i was saying that there's some disconnect uh from the the broader
let's say global iron ore price the the stuff cleiffs has, at least some of their mines here in the US,
are location-advantaged. And I think one or two of them are cost-advantaged. And I think those
guys are vertically integrated. So almost none of what I said would have applied to that particular
company. It's sort of funny. I was thinking about the exception as I was talking about it,
just because it's like, okay, well, hey, you look at like a global market these guys are what five percent of the global market or something but you know
they're just it's just uh you know the it's a local if you're supplying uh a steel mill that
you're 40 miles away from and have a long-term supply contract to uh but maybe you have like
the price reset or something like you described.
It's just a completely different scenario.
So none of what I said apply.
I haven't looked at it close enough.
I do know folks in the steel industry
who really respect the CEO there.
But again, does that matter for a technical...
Yeah, Lorenzo couldn't call this.
Yeah, he's legit.
So I don't know.
I really like this one.
I figured if we're going to build more in the U.S.,
it just made sense from a reshoring perspective.
But we shall see.
I mean, yeah, I don't want one day to kill my thesis on this or anything,
but it's just a really ugly candle today.
And I was just wondering.
But thank you. I appreciate it.
Yeah, yeah, for sure.
No, happy to.
And again, I don't know that I gave an answer for that.
I don't know what the answer is uh for that one i think the main thing that you said was
which was helpful is that like there are things going on with iron ore but it doesn't necessarily
impact them so that makes me feel like okay i'm not missing anything necessarily from
like anything recent news or whatever yeah the one other thing that should affect them,
and I don't know,
it's like in the cone of uncertainty
where I don't know that anyone really knows this.
Okay, here, I found it.
This sovereignty spread framework,
which was from this guy, Craig Tyndale.
He posted this on January 18th.
I have an Android phone.
Funny, I heard the prior conversation.
And one of the downsides is that they don't update these apps
optimized for Android.
So I can't actually post this to the Nest,
even though it's just a truly fascinating article.
But here, I'll repost my post on it. And I was quoting this guy from, it's C. Tyndale,
and he posted it on this long post on January 18th. And it's about, he called it the sovereignty
spread. So if you search for sovereignty spread, it would be, it's just really, it's a fascinating framework for understanding this sort of strategic approach towards commodity policy or price policy from a major country.
Let me see, you posted it in the, not in the nest, but the comments.
No, I can't, I can't post it in the nest. in the nest but no i can't i can't post it in that so no i just i
just reposted i think uh snipe pinned it up in the nest interesting to understand
distortioning effects in commodity markets there you go i know we're also gonna be talking a little
bit a little bit of china here is josh you you look at any Chinese stocks anything like that in your
research at all I mean I try to track the Chinese economy to understand oil demand and natural gas
demand and there's been this sort of persistent bearish narrative on China for a long time
and I think it's been I think it's been been less bad generally than people were saying. And so
it's not great, but they shifted really heavily towards obviously industrial manufacturing and
exports and away from some of the real estate development of how the economy a decade ago.
But it's not bad. Their oil demand is actually higher
than people expected. And it's not just for storage. It's actually been growing. So
I don't have a view. I do worry a little about countries where there's sort of a growing policy
rift. As a US investor, I worry about having the issue that some of my friends had with Russian stocks, where when things got bad enough from a foreign relations perspective, it just reduces my interest in trying to really understand some of these Chinese companies.
So I track the economy closely to understand the oil demand, but I don't really have a view on the stocks other than just being a little extra cautious on countries like China, considering what happened with Russian stocks.
on countries like China considering what happened with Russian stocks as we're talking here I'm
seeing an interesting headline from CNBC that tick-tock daily average app uninstalls in the
United States increased nearly 150% for whatever this means over the past five days after this
deal closed for the to change ownership but everything like that. So it's interesting.
Do you guys wanna talk about this? I do and Pin Duo Duo.
Sorry, I just was curious
on how these stocks have been doing.
What were you gonna say?
No worries.
No, I don't think I'm gonna be able to,
I mean, I don't think I'll be able to be in New York
for this, but I wanna hear about it.
And I'm sure everyone that's on here wants to hear about it.
You might've already talked about it,
but probably can't hurt you to talk about it again. What are you everyone that's on here wants to hear about it. You might've already talked about it, but probably can't hurt to talk about it again.
What are you guys going to do in terms of a in-person event?
I think we still kind of are formulating it out a little bit,
and I don't want to take too much time on this because I have done a couple
of times, but definitely going to do some live trading in this.
I think that that is something that everyone enjoys and just kind of going
through this, but I don't know if it's the most like you leave it
and it kind of is the most valuable part of this.
So we definitely want to do some education
throughout the day.
Definitely some breakout sessions.
So a little bit of smaller groups
where people can kind of go
and hear from the people that they want to
kind of maybe closer to one-on-ones,
however close you can get to.
Obviously I have an area where people can take selfies
to do a bunch of networking
and stuff like that. That will be a part of this.
You know, some cocktail hours
and things like that.
But yeah, trying to
education and entertainment
and kind of we do this every single day
trying to put some, you know, more faces
behind everything. I will
be there.
Face for real. I mean, I kind of have to put the
face out there by that point, you know, so. Yeah, you know, I think it's, I think it's
good. You guys have done enough of this that it makes a lot of sense to you. I mean, my
one suggestion would be, yeah, I don't think I'll be able to come out for it. It sounds
like a cool event though. But maybe some of the companies that have been talked about
or that you guys tend to get interest in, maybe they want to send an IR person or one of their senior execs.
And you could do like a sort of, it sounds like you want to make it sort of more trading oriented.
But one thing people, I think, so I have access to management teams of companies because I run a fund and, you know, I can just reach out and they'll get back.
And typically it's like talk to an IR person.
And then if there's a reason for me to chat with the execs, like I get access.
But a lot of retail investors don't have access to some of these public companies or when they get access, it's to like, was that one?
to like, was that one, there was this one guy on FinTwit who became essentially the IR person for
like the strip club company. And then the CEO ended up getting in trouble and whatever. So,
you know, it's companies like that where the people get access. And so it's not so great,
but I bet, I bet you guys could, uh, could get some, uh, companies, they could probably also
help you cover some costs. You don't have to charge people too much or whatever for this.
Um, but that, that would, that would be my suggestion. Yeah. my suggestion yeah yeah i know i definitely do uh think we will do some stuff like
that i think this first one we definitely want to be very trading focused which honestly is a part
of what this next conversation will be around some some trading products and just trading in general
but uh but yeah we also you know we have good access. There's a lot of very exciting stuff that we are planning and thinking of in
2026.
And this is one of them.
That is one of the tweets pinned up in the nest above.
You guys can go through and roll through that.
I do want to throw this out there one more time.
I appreciate all the speakers for joining us in here.
We do have the Crane Shares team up here and I'm excited for this next
conversation we are going to jump into but you should definitely make sure that you guys
are following all of the speakers up here they are all fantastic they will improve your experience
on this app shout out to josh for coming up here we're gonna have a deep dive into all this energy
and oil and stuff like that he's a real area of expertise in the not too distant future awesome
guy shout out to logical and stock sniper and stock talk and we have a really awesome conversation stuff like that. He's a real area of expertise in the not too distant future. Awesome guy.
Shout out to Logical and StockSniper and StockTalk.
And we have a really awesome conversation coming up right here in the next little bit.
We should make sure that you are following the speakers up here.
Mr. Blacksburg, new profile picture, I feel like, on the spaces.
How are you doing, sir?
I feel like I've been on a space with this one before, but'm doing good it's definitely a very interesting day in this uh market uh the ups and downs and i saw obviously
you know you guys have in the title you were talking about gold silver copper i know we're
talking about to talk some china here as well uh with crane shares and talk about some of the
things that are happening over there but there seems like there's so many areas in this market
that are already up 20 plus uh very early into the year and are having 5% or 10% moves
on a single day as well. So I'm excited to see where it continues to go. I think it should be
an interesting conversation. I'd be curious as well, as we get into this conversation with the
Crane Shares team, maybe if they have any thoughts on some of the metals before we go too far into
some of these other things,
but I know a couple of their,
those double leverage China tickers we'll be chatting about are also up over
really over 20% year to date.
So a lot going on in this market,
to be honest,
I feel like there's a,
I probably spent more time on my broker job today than I haven't a little
bit.
It is very busy times,
very busy times.
I am excited for this next conversation that we have coming up here.
We are going to be talking about China with some of the experts behind the ETF, such as KWeb, and having some of these good conversations.
I'm very much excited for it.
I do want to read out a quick disclosure with you guys.
Obviously, we are doing these spaces all day, every day, every single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern, at least
for free. And we are working with some extremely reputable companies who come on these conversations
and share their thoughts, and we appreciate them for that. So I want to read out some disclosures
so we can talk about some of the great tickers that CrainShare has. But here, an investor should
carefully consider funds, investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before you invest.
A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the CraneShares ETFs.
To obtain a fund's prospectus and key information, you should go to the website, CraneShares.com.
That is a great place to start your research.
A fund's prospectus and key information document should be read carefully before investing.
You guys should know what you guys are investing in.
Make sure you do your research.
We are excited to be working with the CraneShares team.
Awesome.
I am looking forward to this conversation.
If I throw it over to that CraneShares account, maybe tell us who we have.
We're talking from there today.
Hello.
Yeah.
Yeah.
How are you? I'm Henry Green. I'm a from there today. Hi. Hello. Yeah. Yeah. Hi. How are you?
Yeah, I'm Henry Green.
I'm a senior investment strategist at CraneShares.
It's great to be on with you today.
I am very excited to have you here.
We have a very interesting conversation coming up in front of us.
I'm excited to talk about some of the ETFs that you guys have.
Obviously, the Alibaba 2X1 is doing its thing, having a great time. KBAB,
that one is already up, what, 25% or 22% so far this year. Obviously, parts of the China theme
have been working super well. But we were talking throughout the day, obviously, gold, silver,
rare earth materials, copper is one that Mr. Blacksburg, the other guy who will be talking
a lot through this, he's a big fan of that that one I'm curious if you have any thoughts on those names at
all yeah I think um when you look at China demand obviously you know China given its size historically
has moved prices in commodities especially copper steel um and And I don't know how much, I mean,
and a lot of that was driven by the real estate sector, which is,
put it this way, isn't as strong as it used to be, right? It was really curtailed by
the deleveraging you had in 2022, 2021 to 2022. And that's going to be a smaller part of the economy. You know, we think
that China is still going to, obviously, given its size, still be a mover for those commodities. But,
you know, I wouldn't expect China demand to rise significantly for those in the near term or the medium term. And then that's also why, given our kind of focus, right,
has been on consumer, domestic consumption, and technology.
And that's really what's been doing well in China in the past year,
past almost two years, really.
And that's where the policy, if you look at their 15th five-year plan,
just they released a draft in October. That's where the policy focus is. You've seen that
reflected in stock market performance. The internet names, so we have K-Web is, of course,
the representative benchmark we have for the space and then uh obviously the single names like pdd
alibaba um jd um all of those you know actually accepting jd uh have done pretty well over the
past year alibaba doing the best um and really that's driven driven by the technology innovations these companies have had.
These companies, after DeepSeek, it was realized that, okay, China is doing well in AI.
They have a lot of innovation there.
And then who's leading AI in the public markets in terms of where you can trade publicly?
And it's really Alibaba is the leader there with their QN model.
They just released a new version. Really, Alibaba is the leader there with their QN model.
They just released a new version.
And a lot of global companies are using their large language model.
Airbnb, for example, a lot of people don't know that actually uses,
among others, I think, the QN Alibaba model. So, yeah, really, that's going to continue in 2026.
When you're looking at investing in China, technology is really the way to go.
Yeah, you have been mentioning some of these names.
Obviously, K-Web is one of the Korean shares product and is a very popular name and product out there that people like to trade.
And invested, obviously, trying to internet area is very
interesting and you guys have a lot of these other ETFs which are 2x on the
single stock ETF names such as pin duo duo which is k pdd and then the kbaba
or kb a b is the 2x Alibaba one Alibaba has been having quite the year so far
this year give me thoughts on either of these names Alibaba or been having quite the year so far this year. Do you have any thoughts on either of these names,
Alibaba or Pinduoduo at this point in time?
I know there are popular ones that are being talked about,
but those two specific names.
Just any general thoughts?
Obviously, we're talking through some of Alibaba's AI models there.
I've been seeing some of the headlines.
Yeah, sure.
The most recent headline with Alibaba is this rumor that they're going to spin off their chips unit, which caused
a little bit of a spike in the stock price, a lot of interest from investors looking in.
We've had inbounds about it. It's really, it's just a rumor.
I have, we have contacts at the company who are not commenting on this. So,
but it is in line with their previous moves to kind of re, they've done a lot of tinkering in their, their corporate governance, breaking into eight units. I think it was in 2024, they broke up into eight units,
not with separate listings, but just for the purposes of their financial reporting and their
corporate governance, they broke into eight units. And that was really cheered by investors.
And then now they might be doing this spinoff for an IPO of the ship unit.
So that's interesting.
And that's going to cause probably be pretty positive
if they go through with it for the stock price.
But again, this is not a,
that business itself is a small part of their business overall.
It doesn't actually, it's not actually profitable yet.
So this is really kind of highly speculative.
At its core, though, yeah, Alibaba is really strong in AI, and that's kind of what's been
leading investor sentiment more so than the e-commerce, even though e-commerce is still
most of their revenue, right? So you've kind of seen with e-commerce, though, the margins have been under pressure because there's just a lot of competition in this instant commerce market.
A lot of these companies are competing for the same wallets, basically the same people in urban areas in China, right?
Because it used to be that the, let's talk about the entire pie, so to speak,
of e-commerce in China was growing considerably and consistently.
now it's kind of taken a taken a pause overall so there's a huge competition to just get more
Now it's kind of taken a pause overall.
spending um from the existing users that these platforms are competing for so that's had pressure
on margins but even in this alibaba is coming out mostly on top um they have really strong user
retention um they have really strong membership programs and incentives and a really loyal customer base.
So I think, yes, Alibaba is an AI leader, probably the AI leader in China.
But fundamentally speaking, e-commerce is still a revenue story, but they're still strong on that as well.
On PDD, PDD is interesting because, you know, it really, really took off starting in 2023.
They had a Super Bowl commercial for their Timu e-commerce app launched in the United States.
And it really took off. Their revenues just started soaring, super high growth up until kind of mid last year.
until kind of mid last year.
And that was mostly driven by this international app,
this Timu app, which was this, it's like Sheen,
it's fast fashion, it's quick products
that are made, basically made on demand.
They had just such sophisticated supply chains
that they were able to basically not pay inventory costs.
And so that was really exciting for the company.
And they've also exported this model of what's called social commerce,
which you have people bidding together on deals
and also gamifying the shopping experience.
And that really took off internationally.
So that was huge for PDD and a pretty strong growth driver.
Recent headwind was the removal of the de minimis rule by U.S. Customs.
So PDD, some other platforms, Asheen too.
Asheen isn't listed yet, but both of them were kind of hurt
by that just because they would ship packages, tend to ship packages in lower amounts, lower
quantities to get around basically paying tariffs using the de minimis exemption. But it hasn't
killed the business. It really has had the impact has been less than I think many, many investors had feared.
And so that realization has been very positive for, has been positive, supportive of the
stock.
But obviously it's, if you look at the year to date past year, it is lagging Alibaba, but still pretty strong performance when you look over a longer time period of two to three years.
And it's still growing. They're doing a lot. People are still using Teemu all over the world.
So it's interesting. But the de minimis
rule was a real headwind for PDD. So any kind of trade, and they're going to be very sensitive,
more sensitive than Alibaba to trade headlines, right? I think Alibaba is more sensitive to
China specific headlines, which makes sense because that's most of their revenue base.
China-specific headlines, which makes sense because that's most of their revenue base.
And then PDD would be more sensitive to kind of the trade and tariff headlines.
Okay, that makes sense. That makes sense. I'm curious because I do have the tweet pinned up
in the nest above all of the China tickers that you guys go in and have. And like I was saying
earlier, you guys should go to the website and there's a bunch more tickers in there that we can go through and talk to.
I'm sure we will talk about them at some point in the near future. And like we've been saying here,
there are a couple of the single stock 2X leverage ones that you have, like KBAB for Alibaba,
like KPDB for Pinduoduo. And there's also one, it's not China, KMLI for MercadoLibre.
But besides that point,
why do you think people are trading these 2X single stock ETFs?
What type of person do you see actively using them?
What are some of the advantages of them?
Obviously, like we're saying there,
the Alibabas of the world will not only trade on Alibaba itself,
but the China headlines, so there can be some interesting times and themes there.
But yeah, I'm curious your thoughts on what type of person is trading these products,
and who is looking at products like KBAB.
Yeah, sure. So single-stock ETFs have really taken off really in the past two years, maybe less.
And basically, the appeal of them is an easy way to basically they're an alternative to trading a stock on margin.
Right. You could trade a stock on margin whereby you get two times the return.
But a lot of people don't have margin accounts.
You have to get a margin account, you have to keep up a certain minimum balance.
There's lending requirements and certain restrictions and a lot of process that's
involved, which for a lot of individual investors, retail investors,
people who are new to investing, that can be difficult for those kind of investors.
And so we've seen single stock ETFs as a popular way to basically get access to what is essentially
margin.
And it's important to remember that these are really trading vehicles.
You shouldn't, I mean, they're one day, right?
So it's whatever the return of the stock is in a single day,
it'll be double that, whether that's up or down, right?
And it doesn't.
So if you hold it longer than one day, it's going to be still going up, but it's not going to be over a period longer than one day.
It's not going to be exactly 2x.
So that's important to remember.
So we, the way we structure these is we have a swap with a broker who delivers 2x the return of the underlying stock and
we deliver to them kind of swap premium and as well as whatever the overnight bank funding
rate is.
And so it's just a really efficient single ticker way for people to gain what we like
to say is magnified exposure really to these stocks. And yeah, it's been very
popular, especially in our space, which sees a lot of volatility. There's a lot of people think
there's a lot of opportunities to be opportunistic and trade on news. I really that's been kind of we started this k-web business um talking about
the overall growth story in china right fast forward to today china e-commerce is huge it's
not going away anytime soon but we see wild swings up and down from trade headlines, China headlines, regulations, politics, geopolitics.
And so this creates a lot of interesting trading opportunities.
And these are vehicles that allow for that kind of access.
And so we've launched them with strong client demand.
And it has been interesting, I think, that the appeal
of these has been broader than we thought. We initially thought, okay, this is going to be a
product for just individual investors, just investors here in the United States. We've
seen a lot of interest internationally, where you have different regulations that may make it
more or less difficult to use margin on ADRs.
So all of these use the ADR, which is the New York, the U.S. listing,
as opposed to the Hong Kong listing.
And so we've seen people doing some interesting arbitrage there as well.
So, yeah, that's kind of, that's our 2X suite in a nutshell.
Thank you for that.
Gov, I wonder, I know we have you up here.
I wonder if you have any thoughts or questions that you want to throw over.
Yeah, I'm just curious.
Um, you know, we talked about China, like bigger picture as a whole.
There's also one other name, um, as well, KMLI, uh, that 2X that 2X Melly that's up already 21% in this
past year.
And China, it seems like it has kind of like on-off years when it goes back and forth.
But they do seem like pretty well positioned right now in terms of the revolution and some
of these other pieces that we could see drip down into some of these other areas, right?
A lot of their companies, when you look at robotics, you know, I know we, I know this space isn't about it, but COID, right? K-O-I-D, that other
ETF from Current Shares, we talked about it. There's a lot of names inside of things like that,
which are coming from the China area, right? Probably like half the names, maybe more,
and that's already up, you know, a bunch this year as well. So I'm just curious if you think that
some of the positioning that they have in terms of AI, energy, pieces like that
are going to be some of their key to success, especially in some of these names that you have
double leverage. Yes, I think it has been in the past year. I think AI was the number one driver
of investor interest in return in a lot
of these stocks. And it will continue to be a point of strength for these companies. But I think
it's important not to forget that a lot of their core business is still e-commerce. And I think it
makes it even more exciting. To me, it's like everybody's really excited about this AI story
Like everybody's really excited about this AI story when it comes to Alibaba and Baidu,
for example.
And they're forgetting that China's consumer economy still has not fully recovered to where
it was kind of right after the pandemic, right, in 2021.
And so that's or even you could, it depends on how you measure it,
it depends on where you look, but definitely not recovered. You could still say it still
has not recovered to the level, to the heights it reached, the consumer economy to the heights
it reached right when the pandemic broke out. So that's a huge, if it were to recover to those heights, again, mainly talking about absolute consumer spending and consumer confidence, where we see more of a recovery, which I still think is a bit of a coiled spring.
That's just even more revenue and growth for these companies from a driver that people have basically counted out
now. And everybody's focused on this AI story. And again, that's great. But one of the big
upsides here is if there's a real turn in consumer spending, which I think there could be,
I think that the policy is becoming very, very clear, very, very focused on this.
And I think that could be just another strong tailwind for these stocks that I think people are overlooking.
But yes, yes, AI, very important, big driver for these companies.
But, you know, let's not forget about the consumer rebound.
Got it. Appreciate the insights there.
I want to bring in Stock Talk talk who's up here on stage
as well stock talk i i uh would love to hear any thoughts or questions you have specific uh
maybe anything around that baba pdd melly anything in this area
yeah i mean i'm not a really big international stock guy you know i mean i'm familiar with
with all those names but I haven't ever owned them
for an extended period. I'm pretty US focused. So I wouldn't have a great question about any of
those specifically. I don't know if there's something else you want to touch on.
Yeah, no worries. I mean, I think maybe that actually plays into this because these are all
leverage plays. So actually, I'd flip it back to you on the CrainShares account to just ask
how you see retail typically utilizing these
because someone like similar to StocksRoy, they're probably not everyone's doing super
long-term holds on them, but people are using them as trading products, right?
Yeah, I think so. I think people use all kinds of strategies with these. They're mostly,
they're meant to be a trading product. And our flows suggest that suggest that right we see a lot of in and out um trades in these um
and so yeah i mean there's a lot of different ways you could use them uh i've personally held these
uh i've traded them i've held them for longer um done various things uh with. And so, no, it's just a really fantastic, easy tool to just, you know, try,
even just for someone who's a novice, you know, these are, it's there,
the share prices are pretty low and just you can get a feel for this type of trading strategy
using these, you know, without taking that much risk.
Obviously, they're highly risky.
So as a disclaimer, you know, you should always be careful, always monitoring your portfolio.
But, you know, given that you can buy these ETFs at $20, $30 a share, right, as opposed
to setting up a margin account, That's pretty useful for a lot
of people, I think, and really democratizes access to these strategies. And so they're really
distribution products. You know, we have swaps from the top banks, top counterparties in the
world. We're here in New York City. And we're, yeah, can just distribute that to our clients.
And, you know, we're very happy to be able to do so.
Appreciate that answer. Yeah, I think it's an interesting area.
I like them as an opportunity for trading products.
Two of them, KMLI and I believe, was it KBOB, are already up 21 i think this year those are the two kbab unless i'm
looking at the other one um yeah i've already up 21 this year that's strong starts of the year
strong runs trying in the u.s are always going back and forth to some of these pieces so we
could see how that could affect things but to be honest i think that there's some opportunity in
these areas i see baba everywhere um And it's just something which is kind
of when you go down to like a daily, you know, it's had that slow trend up, but each year it
seems to trend up, trend back down, trend up, trend back down, trend up, and kind of just had
the trend down. And I'm looking for it to make new highs here, just looking at the chart, which,
you know, on BABA itself would be all the way up at 191. So you can kind of two excess, right,
in terms of what we're seeing here on KBOB.
So I find it very interesting
from a technical perspective,
personally, when I'm continuing to look at it.
And then on the Melly side of things,
that's one that's interested to me as well.
So if anyone, you know, you want to look it up
just to see the basic chart right underline,
you can look up that MELI.
It's followed a bit of a similar path.
You know, you go back to 2023,
the stock, the underlying stock was trading at 827.
Now it's trading at 2,000, right?
But it has consolidated a little bit.
It's come back underneath its 200-day SMA.
So this was another one that I'm kind of curious. It's had a little bit of a jolt move to the upside here from the start of the year, but
it's certainly nowhere near all-time highs, especially on the 2x average chart.
So as a technical perspective, they stayed pretty interesting to me. And I like hearing from you on
the underlying perspective. Do you want to give any insights real quick to just like
the leverage, the daily resetting, just any of those pieces?
Sure. Yeah. So as I said, it's important to remember these are daily. There's a daily reset.
It's important to remember these are daily. There's a daily reset. So every day you get 2x what that stock returns. Right. So again, over time, it can erode or enhance your exposure beyond or below 2% over a longer period of time. So that's important to remember. But it's really that simple. It really
is. And, you know, obviously, again, big disclaimer to be careful. But, you know, it's that daily
leverage that you're getting the daily. It's just important to remember that it's a one day
two X. And, you know, beyond China, right, we have
Mercado Libre, obviously, Latin American e-commerce company, and they're very interesting as well.
They're a leader in the space in Latin America across many, many countries,
doing very well. They've got the best tech. They've got the best, in our opinion, logistics.
best tech, they've got the best, in our opinion, logistics. And that's very interesting. And
they've, and in terms of a trading vehicle, we've seen Mercado Libre become very
exposed to news in the state of the Argentinian economy, partially because Argentina is one of
their largest, our largest markets and was one of their first markets.
The company was actually domiciled in Uruguay and was very connected with Argentina.
And rightly or wrongly, it's begun to become kind of a bellwether for Argentina, which is interesting and has had an interesting political economic
story over the past couple of years.
And so, you know, just again, it's another example of, you know, you have these really
great businesses, non-US businesses in emerging markets that get caught up in these trade headlines, in these geopolitical headlines,
right?
And that can be very frustrating.
It's been frustrating for me doing what I do over the past, I mean, you know, I've been
doing this since 2019, so full seen both Trump terms.
2019. So full seen both Trump terms. And so it's been very fascinating to kind of see that change
where you used to have this emerging market story was, okay, we're going to have more consumer
spending. We're going to have more urbanization, more internet penetration, and this just seemed to be a simple upward-sloping
curve. But of course, nothing is that simple in life and in the world, and I've lived through
in my career a time where that story stopped being so linear, where you see deglobalization on the rise,
where you see protectionism, where you see internet regulation all over the world.
I think we're still just breaking the surface on that one.
But it's created this environment where their companies become become their stocks will become more volatile um and there are more uh interesting drivers headline drivers for these stock prices
uh that create opportunities
yeah only have a couple minutes left on this conversation and i think we're gonna have a
bunch more of them,
and I'm really looking forward to it.
We do appreciate the CraneShares team.
You guys should definitely make sure you are following them.
They're posting a lot of really great stuff.
There's a tweet pinned up in the nest above,
which a couple more of the Chinese ETFs,
and obviously going to the website will give you a bunch more information.
But I definitely want to give you another chance to kind of have any final thoughts that you have in here.
You can throw any extra thoughts or topics that you have more in there if you want to,
but I want to make sure that you got a good chance to come in and share the
final thoughts that you have.
Yeah, no, sure. Thank you. It's been great.
I really appreciate the opportunity to speak with everybody.
Final thoughts. I guess I think it's really,
I was on earlier listening to some of the discussions just before my segment.
And I think that it's being underappreciated how much better in the in the in the background, the U.S. and China relationship has gotten. We see Trump moving on to other areas,
obviously with the Greenland business. And Trump, I think, is going to visit China. I mean,
knock on wood, most likely he's going to visit China in April or over the summer.
likely he's going to visit China in April or over the summer. And that's going to be a huge
signal for markets. I think that with the removal of Maduro, it's very much the administration
feels like it's done a lot, maybe enough in its own frame of influence, sphere of influence,
that now is the time for a real—obviously,
we have the trade truce, so to speak—but I think now is the time for a real cross-specific
grand bargain from Trump. And I think he's got to do it soon, because he's not going to be in office,
presumably, for many more years. So now is the time. And I think that's very much undervalued
in markets, just this improving geopolitical relationship. I think we're back to a world of
kind of realpolitik where we're going to have US and China saying, hey, we're the world's two
largest economies. We've got to work together.
We've got to work together on AI.
We've seen NVIDIA releasing the chips.
And we've got to work together on future technology.
And I'm very optimistic about that improving.
So, yeah, that'll be my final thought.
Thank you so much.
I love it.
I love it.
And we've got, as more stuff happens,
we'll have more conversations on here.
Like I said,
keep following that Korean shares account,
follow all the speakers up here to,
to get more of these types of insights on your feed.
I'm excited for more conversations just like this.
Make sure you go to the website,
check that tweet pinned up in the nest above all of that good stuff.
We talked through a bunch of the different ETFs that you guys have. I'm excited to jump in a little bit more shout out to gov for joining in
on the conversation as well um and yeah i i'm excited i hope you get some of those in the and
we are we have u.s midterm elections coming up so i imagine we're going to get a lot of headlines
over the next little bit and we'll make some some good conversation pieces in this direction so yeah for sure thank you for coming have a great one everyone follow the speakers check
the tweet pinned up in the list above we will catch you all later face Thank you.
