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Talking about Generative AI and Defense
Recorded: Dec. 16, 2025 Duration: 2:23:03Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, key players in the crypto and tech sectors explored emerging trends, including Tesla's stock nearing all-time highs, Rivian's fundraising efforts, and Robinhood's innovative prediction markets. The conversation highlighted the intersection of AI and defense, signaling a shift in investment strategies and potential growth opportunities in the evolving landscape.
Full Transcription
what is up what is up everybody stocks on spaces is back live. We are back. Had a little
bit of a wolf retreat. I'll give you guys for people who are listening in to the recording,
we apologize for missing Thursday and Monday. Sometimes we've got to plan some stuff for the
new year, but I appreciate everyone for coming in and joining us today. Got a nice day of stocks on spaces.
My first space in a couple of days.
It feels a little weird.
Now I will,
I will address this right at the start.
Some sound news happened yesterday.
I did lose in fantasy football to the,
to the person up on the screen.
So options,
Mike,
how you doing,
sir?
You want to take a quick victory lap?
I'll allow it.
I'm doing good.
You know, listen, you had me a little worried last night with Warren all of a sudden saying he's sick and may not play much and didn't play much.
But, yeah, it feels good to be not the king yet because I haven't won anything.
But, man, I got to face knots this week, which just looks like hell. But how are you week which just looks like hell but how are you man i missed you guys this week it's been a couple days
it's been a couple days we've been good we had a little uh in-person thing getting excited for
some of this stuff going forward i am pretty energized except for the fact i can't wait to
hear about it woke up and uh maybe wasn't feeling so great today but it's okay i i you know what a
lot of my friends who have been traveling have all come down with COVID.
Don't put that evil on me, Ricky Bobby.
I'm not.
I'm just saying I have four of them who have traveled in the last two weeks.
All of them came home with COVID.
We shall see.
Some of the news stories.
But they all said it wasn't too bad.
No, you're good.
You're good.
Some of the news stories that we had this morning, honestly, I haven't seen too much.
I'd be curious.
And we could talk through. And Michael, come right back over your way in a second. There was a Databricks story that they're raising at around $134 billion. There was obviously a story last night that the NASDAQ is looking to do some stuff so that maybe within the first half of next year, we might be up to, I think it was 23.7 trading, maybe 24 hours a week, whatever it is. I don't know, Maybe even 24 or five days a week. Basically, market's going to be open a little bit more going forward.
It's going to be 23 hours a day, five days a week.
There you go.
They're going to close for an hour between eight and nine.
And only Tesla.
It's the only stock you can trade.
Yeah, just Tesla.
Just Elon Musk.
Yeah, Elon Musk now worth $638 billion.
For anyone curious, if you combine Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Warren Buffett, you get to $638 billion. For anyone curious, if you combine Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Warren Buffett,
you get to $627 billion, according to Bloomberg. So some numbers there. When I look over to my
portfolio, my single stock portfolio is up about 0.3% today. But the ETF one is one I care a little
bit more in this context. Down about 0.001 that's, that's weird. That's an update.
Okay.
QQQ up about 0.1, VOO down about 0.3.
How is the volume today?
Feels like, was it a low volume today?
Then we're getting the holiday season.
Why don't I kick it over to you, Mr. Options, Mike,
tell me how the volume was today,
what it's looking like and what you're seeing in this market.
I appreciate you being here.
I love being here. You know. This market is just incredibly stubborn and tough at the moment. So volume
today in the SPY, where 68 million shares were ahead of normal, were a little bit more
than average. 82% are already going into the close, will be above average. And the SPY
came down, just missed hitting the 50-day,
and it's bounced,
it's trying to break VWAP,
where it's failed all day long.
The last couple of days
have been the same type of action.
The last couple of weeks,
this constant chop back and forth.
That said, you know,
there's been some trade.
Now, Tesla, I started off
by taking a nice little loss
from a couple of Tesla calls
I held overnight,
and then made it back
by trading Avgo
and trading Tesla a couple more times.
And Tesla here has now got within two bucks of the all-time high a little while ago and still looks good the difference here today is tech is holding in better and the names that have been stronger
the dow the iwm the spy are the ones that the banks are weaker so we're seeing a little rotation
back it's not like tech screaming it's just just holding in. But here as we speak,
where the market's pushing up, the SPY is barely at VWAP. Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, Apple,
all hitting highs of the day. Palantir is closed. So they're trying to buy back some of this stuff.
We'll see if we're going to get any traction into them or not. These little bounces on them have
been sold viciously the next day or two.
Avgo tried to bounce today, had a nice opening 10 to 15 minutes.
Now it's trying to come back after coming back in.
And the market just remains in a very tough place.
There's a lot of selling pressure here.
You know, is this they're looking at next year?
I don't know.
They looking at, you know, saying we take profits here.
The market's up big the last two years in a row, time to take profits.
The AI trade seems to be unwinding a little bit, which I think is good from a bubble perspective.
But, you know, are they going to come back for it?
Trump's going to address the nation tomorrow night at 9 o'clock Eastern time.
Nobody's quite sure what that one's going to be about.
Is it about the economy?
Is it about Venezuela? You know, unclear what that one's about there.
But, you know, crude is down.
I mean, crude is under $55 a barrel.
It's a great time to filter the reserves back up, the strategic reserves.
It's just a very weird market we're in.
This time of year is supposed to be seasonally strong.
It's not.
You look at this market here.
We never took out the all-time high.
We got within a penny by the SPY, but it down the IWM did. And within a penny, but on the SPY, but the Dow and the IWM did.
And now we're rolling over on the SPY, making possibly an H-cell pattern if we keep going down here.
You know, as long as we hold the 50-day, I think we're okay.
If we get under that, we could have some problems.
And so I think it's just time to be, you know, make sure you're in names you want to be in.
You're comfortable where you're at.
You know, we'll watch to see if we get the Santa Claus rally.
You know, Jeff Hirsch, not on today, today i don't think but always talks about that that's an indicator along with
the first five trading days of the year he has three of them he hooks up i'll let him talk about
next time he comes on but he's you know always talks about they're up if they're all three hit
you know the market is almost always up like something like 90 plus percent of the time the
following year and you know just waiting to see what this market wants to do.
It's really about the first 30 minutes to give you the best trading of the day.
And then after that, it becomes a choppy mess.
I am not bearish.
I'm just not loving the action.
I will say, honestly, I think it's hard to be bearish.
Less than 2% from all-time highs on SPY and QQQs less than 5%. Well, the IWN from all-time highs on spy and qqq is less than five well the iwn did
all-time high yesterday yesterday the dow right the xlf all the banks at all-time highs seems like
the names that we're leading aren't aren't really moving that much lower they're holding and going
sideways maybe a couple names starting to catch up but tesla was a name that we haven't seen at
all-time highs uh in a little, less than a couple dollars away.
I think the thing here is really it's about – it's not bearish.
It's just the action is just not good, and it's just not fun.
And that's the difference.
As traders, if you're investing, you can care less.
If you're an investor, you look at this, you just laugh.
Mike, is it not good, or is it just comparatively not good to how great it's been a year long i mean no it's i think it's really just not good i mean you these these
whips back and forth all day long look at the spy on a five minute chart it is just viciously ugly
on how this thing is trading and you've been seeing this in names you know
yes from a trading perspective right now i mean yes from a trading perspective doesn't look bad yeah okay from a short-term trading
perspective yeah yeah right you're just not getting your they're also tearing they're also tearing if
you're trying to swing options they're tearing apart in this market because they you know tesla
gapped down for no good reason today eight bucks ten bucks and now it's at two bucks from all-time
highs it's this kind of action that just you know know, is if you follow your rules, you get out of Tesla, which I did. But now here it is,
you know, just tried to all time. And I got back in and I made my money back and plenty more. So
I'm not saying, but it's just, it's very ugly how it's trading. It's very whippy. It's trying to,
it just seems very contrived, very trying to screw with people. And maybe that's it. Maybe
it's just full of algos right now that are just very trying to screw with people. And maybe that's it. Maybe it's just full of algos right now
that are just really trying to mess with people.
Maybe it's AI.
Brian, why don't you share some thoughts in here?
Yeah.
Well, I won't agree.
I won't agree.
I won't disagree with Mike that it is,
from a short-term day trade perspective,
yeah, I get it. In fact,
I wouldn't even be trying it unless I was really a hardcore day trader. I guess, you know,
my perspective is a little distorted because as I've said, ad nauseum on these spaces, I'm sure everyone's tired of hearing it. October of this year, I made a decision to start raising
some cash, start giving myself –
Oh, sorry.
There goes – Tesla is just almost hitting all-time highs.
Yeah, $2.
I think it's – I have Tesla all-time highs at 48854 is what I have.
Okay, so I've got 48654 right now.
So we're like a buck and a half, two bucks away.
So I'm sorry. four, eight, six, five, four right now. So we're like a buck and a half, two bucks away. Um,
so I'm sorry. So what I, what I said in October is like, I was raising, it's been a great year.
I was raising some cash, uh, not necessarily cause I saw anything on the horizon, but just cause I want to enjoy the holidays and I was paying myself some money, but I, so I decided
not to, to trade as much in the end of the year, but I've been carrying positions, building positions.
And one of them that I've talked about a lot is Bros. And goddamn, if this thing does not look
like it is ready to break out, I like that it's not a tech name. It keeps smacking into the all
time high VWAP. And I swear if the market wasn't so heavy the last three days or so. I think this thing would have gone. I am in Tesla. I've been in Tesla since the Tim bottom or Tim Waltz bottom when that dipshit
Waltz took joy in the fact that an American company was having its stock drop. That was back in
March. That's when I started building a position and I've added to it and traded around it ever since. So that's great. All my legacy pot names, the names that
I literally have written off as zeros, came back to life in the last few months, particularly this
week. So I have a distorted perspective of the market right now because it's actually been a
pretty good week, week and a half for me. But I will tell you this, every day I go through
my list of stocks when I do a daily update for my subscribers and the list has gotten progressively
thinner so that yesterday there were literally only six stocks between my daily setups and my
active stock. Now that is usually a signal of one of two things. That means,
well, it usually means it's funny. If I have an outsized amount of names on my list, that usually
means we have a big move coming. And if I have a very small amount of names, that means there's a
big move coming. It usually means that we're at some, some blocking point, some point we can't
get past some point we're trying to knock on the door,
and we're either going to get rejected and drop fairly significantly, and I just mean like the
next day or two, or we're going to have a big rally. When there's a medium amount of names
on the list, that usually means that we've already broken out and things are trending and things are
coming on and off the list. So me personally, it's been great. But in terms of the market, I feel like we're at
an inflection point. If you're a bull and you're an optimist, you think that it's just a setup
before we rip face at the end of the year. If you're a bear, you think that we're going to
roll over. From a technical standpoint, I don't find anything wrong with this market technically in the short to
intermediate term and certainly not the longterm,
the ultra short,
the,
the,
like we talked about earlier,
if you're doing a lot of active intraday trading,
okay.
Yeah.
The last three days have been tough,
but we're right at the 50 EMA on the queues.
We're going to,
it looks like we're going to close above it today.
we tagged it on the SPX.
IWM is above the 21.
Dow is just at the 8.
Today feels like the day where we're going to – the first thing that indicates that we're done with the correction is you have to stop going down.
Just by definition, you have to stop going down. Today looks like the day that we might stop going down
on this correction. And so tomorrow is going to be important. If we get a big update tomorrow,
that probably means the correction's over and we might start making a run towards all-time highs.
You know, Brian, technically the SPY never stopped being in a correction since the 29th was the all-time high.
We're still in this pullback on the SPY.
We hit a 5% pullback back earlier.
We've never come out of it.
Now, where the Dow did and the IWM did, the SPY never did.
We're still technically in that same little pullback that we've been experiencing.
It is, but here's the thing I think about on that.
So we had that big down day, which was on the 20th. And the funny thing is that day stopped just below that big down day we had on the 10th of October.
Oh, it was almost identical.
Right.
So then here's what we did. We ripped face for a week on SPX and a week and a half on the queues.
That was a great rip,
but you can't expect that rip to go all the way straight up to all time
highs. I mean, you can, but see the way it works.
I think a lot of you get this Mike,
and I know people have done this for a long time, get it.
But what a lot of I call them civilians,
you know, people that don't follow the market like us,
cause they got lives.
What they don't understand is that the farther a stock runs or an index runs before it hits a significant resistance
point, the more energy it has expended, right? So if it rips from that low and it spends a week
or two weeks and then it runs into a significant resistance point like an old high, the chances
it's going to go right through it
are pretty low. And if it does, there's actually a higher chance it's going to fail. What you want
to see is you want to see a consolidation area, a tight area, as close as you can below
a resistance level. And the reason why is that's buyers and sellers are fighting at that level,
right? They're getting into a homeostasis at that level. The next group of buyers or sellers, and hopefully it's buyers, doesn't have to be that
significant then to bust it through the next level. And then of course, it becomes self-fulfilling.
It gets to the next level and then shorts have to cover and then new longs get in. So this is a long
way of saying, yes, we are technically in a pullback from that high, but we had such a rip from that low that I think this makes sense that we'd come in a bit.
And like I said, tomorrow's going to be interesting.
If we're up tomorrow, I feel like that's – the correction's probably over, and then we'd probably start maybe basing for the next week or the rest of the week.
And that would set us up for next week, which I think begins the –
has the Santa Claus rally begin next week?
It begins on the 24th.
Yeah, there you go.
I'm a little less optimistic than you.
I think to really get this market clear,
you need to hit the all-time high on the spot.
Just my two cents.
I think you need to go up,
and that would be to me,
okay, now it's time to rally.
Yeah, I wouldn't – I'm not arguing that – I'm just saying I'm not as bullish or bearish necessarily.
Like I've had a lot of people in the last three days talking about a bloodbath.
And yeah, it's a bloodbath in certain names.
And yeah, it's a bloodbath if someone is way leveraged into concentrated positions.
But it doesn't feel like a bloodbath to me.
It feels like just a normal pullback.
Now, could it turn into a bloodbath?
I guess, but it just doesn't feel that to me.
I also think what Trump says tomorrow will probably have some impact on the market.
My guess is he's probably going to tip his hand to who he's nominating for the Fed.
He's probably going to talk about Venezuela.
I don't think he's going to announce pot rescheduling, but, you know.
I think he is.
I think it could be that.
Or I think he's going to talk the economy and $2,000 checks to people.
I think the pot rescheduling is too small.
I think it's too small of an issue to talk about on a live nationwide broadcast.
It could be wrong.
Or $2,000 checks.
I think that could be what it is.
Let's put it this way. This is so funny, right?
I'm 58, right? I've seen a lot of presidents go on TV and do live press releases.
Sometimes they're bad, you know? Sometimes it's bad news.
But it's never going to be bad news with Trump. Anything he says tomorrow, you know 100%.
Do you count for anyone else?
Yeah, we lost him.
Yeah, he's gone.
My phone rang right at the time I was doing my big drop the mic line.
You're not wrong, though.
It will be either irrelevant to the market or probably something more on the good side.
Hey, Evan, real quick.
Are you going to CES?
Did I hear you're going to be CES?
I am going to CES.
I will be there, too.
So maybe we'll see each other.
Yeah, you should definitely let me know.
I am excited for that one.
I've never been to CES.
Wanted to go.
And we're going to go, I believe.
I don't want to.
There's someone else on the panel that might be there.
I don't know if I want to give away anything. Yeah, I away anything but yeah i gotta talk i'll let you know in like a
week but i might be there brian when we finally get that beer that we were supposed to get when
you were in dallas sounds good buddy yeah i do actually have to go in like 30 or 40 minutes so
maybe i'll just go first here so people don't think I'm hiding on a red day or something. Um, uh, but I am here. I've been land shopping the last couple of weeks,
so I've been very busy, but, um, I have another appointment today to go to in like an hour. So
I will be gone, but, um, I don't really like the action we're seeing off the, off the highs.
I don't really like the action we're seeing off the highs.
You know, a lot of this is just instinct, maybe intuition.
There's some structural areas that are still being held very well.
I mean, we defended the 50-day at the lows today.
I reduced my options exposure heavily today.
I'm still net long.
I still have 14 positions long,
but I closed four positions that were mostly in options
just to reduce volatility and beta in the portfolio.
I closed Path, which we were in before earnings.
Those contracts were up a lot.
So I just locked the profits on those.
P-Lab as well.
Those contracts were up a lot. Closed that locked the profits on those. P-Lab as well. Those contracts were up a lot.
Closed that.
Digital Ocean as well.
Closed that.
And then took a little loss on IRDM, which was a small position.
So all four of those positions were heavily weighted in options.
They were flying around whenever the stocks would go up 2% or 3% or down 2% or 3% in a day.
It was just sort of taking up more mental capital than necessary.
So I closed those out.
Didn't touch any of my core positions.
Didn't touch Amcor.
Amcor was down a lot today.
That's what hit my portfolio the hardest.
Obviously, that stock's been on a ripper lately, so it needed a little bit of a cool off.
But down 9% today was definitely the worst performer in my portfolio.
So that hit the hardest.
Outside of that, there wasn't…
What happened with Amcor?
Was there any news or just…
I don't think there was any amcor specific news there was some people like floating some stuff around uh tsm's co-host
packaging picking up this morning but there wasn't anything that i thought you know would have driven
that move particularly but there was you know quite a few sort of higher beta stocks that were
up recently that were down today but that one did take a big hit today.
So that hit me.
But outside of that, there wasn't, you know, most of my other names were doing fine.
You know, a nurses usually doesn't have any bad days.
Today was down 2%, which isn't bad.
But I didn't touch any of my core positions.
I don't plan to.
I don't like to cut my core positions.
But sometimes, just for the sake of the portfolio, I clean up options exposure just to reduce overall beta.
The position I probably didn't want to sell the most out of all of those today was Digital Ocean
because I like that name, but I can get back in it if I need to get back in it whenever I do.
But yeah, just had to clean up some exposure just to reduce beta. But I do not like the way the indexes are acting off the highs.
Now, there's a scenario here where CPI just gives you really great return to confidence
and you just springboard back to all-time highs.
We take out 690 on SPY, then it's gravy.
But the way we came up basically directly into the highs. I mean,
on SPX,
we got,
I think me and logical were talking with us earlier.
We got a reclaim,
but on spy,
we did it.
We're like 50 cents below.
I think we closed six 89 30 or six,
eight nine 20 that day or whatever it was a 50 cents below.
So I didn't like that. And then the day after that,
we get a big red day,
come all the way back below the nine.
And then we get another red day,
push into the 21. And then today we get tucked below the 21 um and into the close here there was an attempted
recapture but i mean what we're still 90 cents off um so we'll see there's another 40 minutes
of time on the clock here it would be a really nice look if we could just recapture the 21
into the end of the day um but it's not necessary. Like I said, I'm not
bearish yet because we haven't given up the 50-day yet, but I did reduce options exposure
today pretty significantly and raise some cash. And if the markets want to turn back around on
CPI and push us back into the highs, then I'll pick some of that exposure back up but i did want to lock some of
those positions and not see the profits disappear if the markets do get rockier from here so yeah
about 14 positions longer and i don't have any puts on or anything so i'm not bearish yet but
um we lose the 50 day i will be bearish i i want to jump in because i gotta hop in eight minutes
for a meeting and then i'll be back on at the top of the hour.
You know, look, I think just the fact that Mike and Brian are kind of like on opposite sides, like Stock Talk and I are a little bit on opposite sides. There's people on both sides of the fence because it is straight up like down to the wire here.
If you don't believe me, go look at the SPY chart today.
SPY was 20 cents within the 50 day, right?
And so that's kind of a very key level that we look at for risk on, risk off.
So anybody who like with high confidence tells you one thing or another probably has zero
clue what they're talking about.
I will say that I have been leading still very bullish. I, you know,
obviously, I understand that the action has been horrible these last few days. My portfolio has
taken a very big hit. I'm not going to pretend I've been immune. I've been extremely long.
You know, on these spaces, we've talked for weeks, saying, when we reclaimed on that Thanksgiving week, we reclaimed the 50-day, I kept saying, I would expect us to pull back 2%, retest that breakout of the 50-day.
It just never came.
And today you got within 20 cents and bounced pretty damn hard.
When we think about, I'm actually very constructive about the price action today. I felt that during the day, you know, like last couple of days, my portfolio was down
like 5% a day.
It was ridiculously brutal.
Today, portfolio down only 2%.
And, you know, it never really exceeded 3% through the day.
To me, that generally feels like volatility is kind of compressing a bit.
You're seeing the volume on many individual names today on the
selling actually decrease. So you're seeing sellers a bit exhausted after a few days.
If you look at a lot of individual names, they came down to key levels. And I'm going to be
honest with you, you get one more ugly day of selling, every chart is like broken. Not every
chart, but you know what I mean? Like many, many many charts will be broken and it was just a very key level sellers were getting exhausted volume is declining on this
selling on third uh selling day in a row so to me i was just like look it's it's do or die here
make or break um so i want to remain bullish for as long as we can hold that 50 day uh i'm still
like pushing 140 long exposure i have taken a hit in the last couple of days.
The way I manage my long exposure,
though, is like how StockTalk mentioned,
you know, he's closed out calls.
You know, I understand and agree with that.
I don't own any calls in any positions.
I just own shares.
So that's kind of how I deal with my leverage
and volatility and, you know, higher beta exposure.
When you're dealing with smid caps,
they're volatile enough.
I don't need like the crack that calls provide on that. Like it's really fun on the upside,
but not fun on the downside. You know, I actually thought that in these last few days,
you've actually gotten a pretty nice opportunity to enter names. You're getting kind of a second
chance, assuming market structure holds up,
assuming that market continues to the upside. You're getting a pretty nice entry on many,
many names right now. So look, it's a very simple risk reward. You break lower here,
you cut the exposure. But if it holds, then this is going to turn out to look like a really nice ad.
And so that's what I've been doing. Let's say I have some positions, whether they're lower
conviction or the charts have just broken down and they've lost the 50 days or whatever.
Those are names that I'm cutting. And I am booking that loss, writing off my gains for the year.
And I'm rotating that equity exposure into other names
that are pulling back. But the charts are setting up a lot nicer. They're still, you know, much
stronger relatively above more moving averages. I mean, you know, we talked about that rubric
report looking really good. And the stock basically came back to those after hours highs of 78.
And the stock basically came back to those after hours highs of 78.
I like that.
It's like a mid gap fill.
You know, actually, you know, Stock Talk mentioned cutting path.
I actually added path today.
I thought, you know, it was a good report.
Stock's not that expensive.
Look, it really just comes down to, I hate to say it, and maybe this is too like binary,
black and white.
Like, is it a bull market or not a bull market? And I want to believe
that it's still a bull market. And that's not to say that there can't be more volatility. And,
you know, maybe the true end of the correction is obviously is a 10%, not a 5%, like we already saw.
So obviously that exists. But the setup is too good into 2026. Like you're getting QE,
you're getting rates down, you're getting, you know, that was the most dovish Fed presser from JPow in his career, basically, I thought anyway. So, you know,
we're getting a little bit lighter on unemployment. That's basically guaranteeing you more rate cuts.
Yeah, I mean, I like stocks here. But if they break down, I'll be cutting exposure
and bringing my net long exposure way down.
I just didn't, like today was do or die.
Today was make or break.
And we didn't break.
That's all I'm saying.
I like this.
This is a very interesting one.
I don't want to say two people are bullish, two people are bearish.
But it's more like we got some interesting stuff.
Clearly, we're at a point in the market where there's some times where it's clearly we're going higher.
Sometimes we're clearly going lower.
Right now seems to be that point where we have no idea.
And I wonder what the event is in the next week or so, which will be that decision, which will be that driver.
I don't know if it's going to be a CPI.
So one last thing to say just about the price action today.
Obviously, really nice bounce.
I mean, you're 40 cents off of reclaiming the 21 EMA on SPY.
If we think about like generally whenever something bearish happens,
like let's say we have overhead resistance, right?
And we get a rejection at overhead resistance.
And we've talked about this, you know, Stock Taco has always mentioned this, like soft rejections versus hard rejections.
There are times where you see kind of like a really big fade off of that overhead resistance.
But right today, I would say you got like a pretty hard rejection off that support level
higher. So, you know, I like that price action. Again, we basically revisited the 50-day today.
If you look at the
queues, they don't look good. They probably look like the weakest part of the market in big cap
tech. But by the end of today, they will recover the 50 EMA. I know there's going to be people who
say, well, it's not the 50 SMA. I get that, but it's something. And I will say, I pay attention
to significant flow every single day. And I can say for the last like week or so, they've been buying calls in size and selling puts in size on mostly large cap tech.
So, you know, I think if you look at RRSP, you could see that RRSP is, wow, look at that.
It basically is trying to hold the 9 EMA into the close after it briefly lost it intraday.
You know, you could say that there's been rotation in this market from large cap tech
that's been the piggy bank and going into other parts of the market.
That kind of breadth expansion, I mean, if you just look at this chart,
it's basically retesting resistance now turning into a potential support.
So, you know, you're not seeing the rest of the market break down.
You know what I mean? We want to use confluence of information. I'm just not seeing that right
now. It's holding. It's holding for now. Yeah, I mean, Qs could continue to do bad, but
that's where we're seeing the call volume, the put volume. And people could potentially,
after all this degrossing is over, realize that, hey, you know, the AI trade is not over.
We had somebody recently on another space basically say like, hey, like I have visibility into the next six quarters of like backlog.
And I'll tell you because, you know, he sets up like GPUs and such.
He's like, the next six quarters is packed.
Like that AI trade is not over, at least not now.
So, you know, know well we'll see what
happens i gotta hop right now but um i'll try to be back on in a little bit i appreciate you
sir stock talk why don't you uh give uh i don't know if you have any thoughts on what you were
saying there and then we'll face are you joining us up here too actually wolfie are you doing sir it's been a couple days happy all-time Mike
was yeah sorry Tesla all-time I sorry here too. I did actually Tesla hit it.
I apologize.
I don't see it right now there.
It's 40 cents away.
It's 30 cents away.
20 cents away.
There it is.
It actually was going.
Oh, there it is.
Tesla do all-time highs.
Bang, bang, bang.
What timing?
Sorry for the interruption, but I think it was a good one.
Wolfie, I appreciate you, sir.
How are you doing today?
What did you watch?
There's a little bit of a split panel today, and I don't need like Nostradamus in here,
but what do you think the next move is, higher or lower?
Where am I going?
What should I buy?
Kidding.
So, I mean, what am I watching?
I'm really overweight Tesla.
I've been fortunate on some of the stuff that I've been long.
I've been long Rivian, I've been long Tesla.
Some of the names that StockTalk was talking about earlier,
he was talking about Path was one that he took for earnings.
That's one I've been long for before earnings a little bit,
just before and still long today.
Actually, real quick, since two people talked about that one,
that one's actually, if you go look at the quarter, the quarter is really good.
They're really expanding on their customers with greater than 1 million ARR
and really expanding on over 100K
customers. That's sticky.
So if they can get these people on board and
stuck, that should be a
tailwind that's just like a good flywheel.
And then they've kind of pivoted their business
a little bit to kind of focus on the AI
jet tech stuff, which is also
really solid and sticky.
Outside of that,
there's been a couple of names that I've just been, again, fortunate to just be a part of.
I mentioned Tesla. Tesla was my biggest position going into the week.
Still is.
Rivian is another one. I've talked about on your spaces several times.
A lot of these large cap, good balance sheet bio names, you know, Johnson.
I mean, bio healthcare, Johnson, BMY, Amgen, Regeneron, et cetera.
So, you know, I've been a little fortunate on that front.
You know, I think generally when you have some like generally these Mag 7 names go in rotation phases.
I think currently the baton seems to be being passed to Tesla, not just with today's price action.
If you just pay attention to the last several days, even on days when markets were down, that one would be outperforming down less and so on and so forth.
down, that one would be outperforming down less, and so on and so forth.
And I think that's in part, like I've talked about this before, but if you go the last
couple of years, generally speaking, when some of these AI names have moved, this one
hasn't moved as much or has been left out and vice versa.
So I really do think that there's like a marginal momentum buyer and some of these names like Nvidia, Avgo, et cetera, that is void from Tesla when
things aren't going well for Tesla and vice versa. So I do think that going into next year,
if they can kind of shape their narratives around some of these key themes that people are paying attention to, robotics,
for them, the robotaxi thing, but more along the lines of automation and stuff,
I feel like it could really benefit them as a tailwind,
just from momentum, from a momentum perspective.
I think people talked about just the level on the ES, I think, or the S&P.
That 50-day, we undercut the 50-day today on an hourly basis,
just kind of absorbed some of that sell supply.
And then we reversed off of it, reclaimed it.
So I think to answer your question,
if we can kind of climb this wall of worry for tomorrow leading into the end of the week.
I do think that we get a lot of stuff that's kind of priced in,
and then you get that quote-unquote Santa Raleigh that everybody always talks about, misrepresents. So does that mean that everything is all clear, all system go?
Not necessarily.
Obviously, if you get a tape bomb, that changes things.
But I do think from a setup perspective, if you just pay attention from the end of october till today you've effectively been
in this range you've been in a range from the high that was set at the end of october to the previous
high um and the previous you know sell-off support zone we sold off early october I think October 10th and 11th. And that kind of built the floor around 6,500.
So you've been in this range from 6,500 to 6,925.
I mean, what would stop it if, you know, at the end of the week, at the end of the year, going into next week, things break out on an all-time high?
I don't know what would stop it.
I think at that point, people would need to reposition their books and chase things so they can get them on their books
for the next year. And then you get that first week of the new year, which is generally an
inflow week, generally when people start to position things for the new year. From a thematic
or from a market perspective, like where I'm watching, you know, again,
I've kind of, I kind of sound like a broken record sometimes when I come on here, but
I'm looking for some of these larger names, some of these boomer names, some of these boomer themes,
specifically in healthcare for 2026. I think a lot of the earning of the, a lot of those stocks
are not priced for any sort of earnings growth. I think now after some of the, some of them have
run a little bit, some of them might be priced a little bit for earnings growth.
But there's still no real earnings growth priced in to some of these names.
And a lot of the expectations are really ratcheted lower on some of these names.
So that's kind of like the sweet spot.
Um, outside of that, you know, I think names like Boeing, Rockwell Automation, Cisco, you
know, just again, boring boomer, like names that your grandpa would talk about kind of
like the sweet spot, uh, for me where I'm, where I'm focused, like where I'm paying attention.
Uh, I do think that some of this, uh, you know, I think at the, based on some of the
stuff that some of these CEOs have said on, uh, some of the stuff that some of these CEOs have said on some of these calls and some of these interviews they've done with CNBC, specifically airline CEOs, it does appear that this Boeing mishap might be coming to an end in the back half of next year.
Knock wood. We'll see.
in the last couple of months, couple of quarters, a lot of that bad news, some of these headlines
you see, you see bad news and it doesn't really equate to the stock reacting in a bad way,
the way that it should as much as it used to.
And I do think that like when you start to see shifts like that, it's where I start to
like, you know, kick the tires and pay attention.
You know, a name that I talked about before several times I've been talking about all year, Rivian.
You know, the run up into the earnings or not earnings into the autonomous event was was fun.
I do think it's pressing up against like weekly resistance, pressing up against this $20 resistance level here.
I think that's the next lid that has to come off.
Wouldn't be shocked, wouldn't be surprised, wouldn't be, you know, any any adjective you want to use here if we just kind of consolidate here for a little bit uh that's
this is going to again be one of those 2026 stories i see him he's up here you can talk more
about that but uh if they could really uh nail this r2 launch and kind of get people on board
to their quote-unquote autonomous thing it is half the the price that Tesla charges on a month to month basis. And it's like, I think that's almost a third of the
price that they charge for FSD in a one payment. So I do think that that's like an interesting
story going into the next year. For me, I'm avoiding all of these chip names until further
notice. I'm avoiding all these AI names until further notice.
Doesn't mean that a name that has AI as part of its story would be a name that I'd avoid as long as it's simply part of the story. Right. And there are little there are little pockets within that that are fine.
I think I think a name like Nebius, which is a fave for a lot of people here,
should be okay.
But I'm just saying for next year,
what are the things I'm paying attention to,
you asked me what I'm paying attention to,
there's things that I want to avoid.
I don't want to be overweight.
That theme, right?
That chip theme, right?
I'm more interested in some of these software names
that have basically been beaten up to a point of oblivion.
I think we're going to see some sort of M&A at some point next year where some of these larger names start to pick at some of these smaller software names that have been left for dead.
I do think there's like a little bit of asymmetric risk reward there.
And then lastly, like some of these cyclicals, everybody talks about cyclicals.
But, you know, I've been a beneficiary of some of these retail plays, Urban and AEO, the ones I mentioned on here.
The Sweeney 2027 calls that we talked about on the space that went for a dollar, that I bought for a dollar.
They've gone to the 17 and a half calls bought for like a dollar, I think a dollar 50.
They've gone to whatever they're at today.
The 20 calls went from a dollar 30 or a dollar 20 whenever I got $1.50. They've gone to whatever they're at today. The 20 calls went from $1.30 or $1.20
whenever I got into them. I think they like 6X and they still have like a full year to go after
this month expires. So like that's kind of from the typical perspective where I look. But beyond
that, looking at things like UPS, things like shipping, things like transportation, things of that nature.
So that's kind of it, where my head's at, where I'm positioned, where I'm looking.
But I do think in the very short run, this all-time high on Tesla is interesting.
It would be fun to see it get pushed to 500 or more this week.
It'd be fun to see it get pushed to 500 or more this week.
We'll see if they keep it going or if it's just like a one and done kind of thing.
I will say that one note on Tesla, you know, last year around this time, I was trading it a lot.
And I was saying that, like, for me, I was going several months out, no more than 6% out out of the money and i was just kind of like
rolling it up that should be okay but the better avenue right now for this kind of name until it
stops you know getting bought on dips is to just buy the dip or to sell like premium you know because i i'm seeing that uh quite a few people post today
that they tried it and it failed and then they got stopped out and then the stock made all-time
high and they're kind of complaining you know i don't think we're in a situation right this second
where you want to chase it i think it's one of those things where you know you can as it consolidates
throughout the day like if you look at today for for example, it consolidated from, you know, 10 o'clock until 2.40 before it really kind of started going vertical.
So it's kind of like how I'd leave people with that name.
Or you could just sell December 26 calls and make 38% on your money.
calls to make 38% on your money.
That's what I'm saying.
That's what I'm saying.
It's either you collect
or, in my opinion,
you buy a dip on support
and it gives you a clear line in the sand to trade against.
But chasing it,
flip a coin whether or not you chasing
the breakout is going to be for real.
But yeah, and that consolidation
happened from 9.35 a.m.
yesterday, if you actually zoom out until today 240 so you know
two two shocks uh on the back of that consolidation that really wiped out premium if you chased it so
that's kind of like where i'd leave another way to do it if you um if you're a little more active
and you want to i i consider this i guess more conservative although some people would let's say you want to buy 500 shares of tesla on the dip starts to dip um just sell some short-term puts
you know either at the money or a little bit lower um if it rallies you get the premium if it doesn't
it goes down you get the premium removed from your uh your cost basis and then you can ladder it
right so you sell uh sell you know, sell, you know, a hundred,
sell one contract against a hundred, then dips more, sell two against two. You know, I mean,
you don't have to put it all in at once. There's creative ways to do it that I think can help you
get your cost basis down on the entry. If you have a long-term bullish perspective on Tesla,
obviously if Tesla rolls over, none of this is going to matter. But if you're trying to get in
and build a position or add to a position for
long term, like a lot of us are,
I think that's a strategic way to do
Stock talk, I know you've got to go
soon. I want to get your thoughts on this one. I saw your
tweet about SPY coming back over the
21 EMA. I'm seeing that.
But your thoughts on Tesla hitting new all-time
highs and also throw in there,
and this could be a discussion we're going after, Robinhood
has their Yes-No event.
It's clearly going to be prediction market
focused, but they're also saying some AI stuff in there
as well. That's tonight at
9 p.m. Eastern. I know that's also a name you watch.
I don't know if there's too many thoughts about a Robinhood
here, but yeah, a couple questions
in there.
Wait, so thoughts on what, Robinhood? First first of all thoughts on this intraday move spy retaking at 21 ama obviously you want to see
it confirmed but it's good sign like i said i mean i'm still not long you know um from 14 positions
long i just closed some options exposure today but yeah that's a good time good sign to see now
we have cpi data this week.
So I think it's Thursday. Logically, do you find out if it's tomorrow or Thursday?
Or are we still here? Is it tomorrow or Thursday, Evan?
CPI is Thursday.
Okay, that's what I thought. We were texting earlier about it. But yeah, so you need to see a good response to CPI data. If CPI data gets a negative response, we get tucked back
below, break below the 50. that's not a good sign.
So, you know, you have to stay nimble depending on what kind of investor or trader you are.
You know, everyone has a different style.
You know, I have some positions that are trading positions and I have other positions that are core positions.
You know, I don't sell my core positions typically. Like I had no inkling to sell any of my core positions
at any correction this year or last year or, you know, whenever,
because I'm pretty committed to those positions.
Now, sometimes I am forced to be a seller of them, but it's rare.
But my non-core positions, the stuff that's on the periphery of my portfolio,
like thematic trades, momentum trades, catalyst trades, I don't have any loyalty to those stocks at all.
If they break down, I cut them.
Very often, I'll sell them at the lows.
That's not important to me.
It's not important to me that, like, oh, I have to sell these at the optimal time.
No, those are, like, conditional trades based on their ability to maintain momentum.
And sometimes if they're options heavy positions like the ones I cut today, it's simply a matter of protecting profits.
Like that's it.
You know, even some people were like, oh, dude, don't you like still like P-Lab?
And I was like, yeah, but it's the entire position is in options.
Then they're up 500%.
I can just sit on it and see, okay, hope that there's no more downside.
And I don't think there will be a tremendous amount more to downside.
But if there is, 4% or 5% of downside on that,
on a position that's entirely options can evaporate a lot of profit.
So I get in and out of stocks for a variety of reasons.
I mean, I've been in and out of P-Lab now, what, three times a year or twice in a year.
So I like all the stocks that I own or buy at a given time.
But sometimes you're doing things for the sake of portfolio management, for the sake of buying power or for the sake of reducing beta or for the sake of securing profits.
Sometimes it's really just as simple as that.
Sometimes it's really just as simple as that.
You're just like, hey, I'm up a lot.
I want to sell it.
And for all those things I sold today, except IRDM, which was a loss,
for the rest of them, they were all up a lot.
And so, you know, it was just a matter of securing profits
at the end of the year here.
I mean, we have 15 days left on the clock.
And, you know, I'm not trying to, like, magnify my performance
into the end of the year anymore.
I gave back a nice little bit over the past week,
but I'm not trying to chase performance into the end of the year.
I've done very well this year.
So I don't want to push the gas here.
Even if the markets are going to rally, we are going to get a rally.
I don't want to push the gas.
I have enough stocks to benefit from that.
It's not like I don't have exposure to the gas. I have enough stocks to benefit from that, right? It's not like I don't have exposure to the market.
I have all my core positions still.
So I'm in a position of flexibility is how I kind of paint it.
And I'm just trying to reduce my beta to the overall market so that if there is more
whipsawing or chop, you know, I don't have to be stressed about, you know, options, expiries
that are coming up or, you know, the theta decay
that might be associated with some of those in the money options that I'm holding as they come
closer to expiry, sorry, out of the money options that I'm holding as they come closer to expiry.
So that was really what today's decision making was about. But yeah, I don't love
the overall action in the market from a tech standpoint because a lot of the tech leaders um are still relatively weak and i don't think that rotation to clothing retailers and uh airlines can hold
the market up it's just not enough market cap in those sectors so yeah we'll see what happens but
you don't see the rally in pot stocks is bullish for the market yeah pot stocks and
airlines and uh and uh clothing retailers are going to save us right so yeah i mean you need
tech tech to hold up for the market to hold up so that's my only concern my going concern here
is that thematically tech has looked weak recently but i'm not overtly worried about
the overall market just yet i I mean, if we get
a... We lose the 50-day this
week, then yeah, it will be. But
we still haven't lost it, so
I'm still... You know one name
we haven't talked about in a while?
It's a good way to paint my positioning right now.
Sorry. I thought you were done
a little earlier. One name. I'm just looking through my 52-week
high list post. One name we talked about here
for a second or two back in the day.
Haven't talked about it.
It was probably maybe a part of that sports basket.
I don't know.
You looked at TKO group at any point in the last little bit.
I'm seeing it on a 52-week high list.
Yeah, I wanted to own it earlier in the year.
I haven't looked back at it, though.
Don't look now.
You don't want to look now, is what I'll say.
Oh, okay.
You're saying it's good that I didn't buy it?
No, no.
I'm saying it's up 50%. It's buy it no no i'm saying you wish it's up 50 it's
yeah it's a nice move over the last couple weeks i mean it's up a lot in general this year right
yeah 50 yeah last couple weeks sorry for the tangent there i was putting the list i know we
talked about it here i did want to hear your thoughts on tesla hitting new uh new all-time
highs today catalyzed i think a little bit by there were some some peep some
i think i saw austin texas there was a tesla driving on the road with nobody in the driver's
seat so it seems like they're going to try and get that done by this year i don't know if that's
this is what catalyzed this and then i actually want to bring in meat off this point and talk
from rivian as well but maybe it's also the rivian news that that whole ai day maybe it wasn't as
what people were fear i don't know uh what's your thoughts on this
move in tesla stock yeah the relative strength in tesla has been very curious i don't know
i don't know i've been trying to put my mind wrap my mind around it too like what's the specific
rationale for it but yeah you think it's a spacex uh uh ipo you know like just making making noise
that that people might get first crack at it if
they're tesla shareholders yeah i saw a rumor floating around around that too i don't know
maybe maybe i mean that'd be i mean he tweeted that he tweeted that two years ago right he said
that if he has another company go public he will give first yeah that's what people were quoting
and like i don't know if spacex qualifies for that or if he was applying like a new company but yeah I mean maybe I mean
that would be interesting I mean I would like that as a Tesla shareholder um so I think that
could be part of what's driving I mean the charts looked great so that's one thing Danny's been all
over it I see him down in the crowd um the charts look great but yeah the relative strength has been
impressive I mean for the last couple of sessions, it's been very impressive, especially like yesterday
when there was a lot of individual stock selling happening and it just flipped to green, from
red to green.
Like that was curious as well.
And then today's action also showed a lot of relative strength.
So I don't know.
I mean, I'm sure it's a number of reasons.
The SpaceX going public, Elon's kind of getting back into the groove of being CEO now
with his new trillion dollar pay package. He's more motivated to do it. They've been providing
some optimist teasers and trailers. You know, there's always somebody that knows something.
They're starting to scale, you know, their battery storage, energy storage program pretty effectively.
So there's a lot of things happening for them.
More and more data centers are using their Megapack.
So there's been a lot of good news for Tesla lately.
And I think also maybe this little bit of tilt we've seen towards consumer discretionary
stocks in the last couple of weeks.
Obviously, Tesla kind of gets grouped into that umbrella sometimes.
But we've seen some relative strength in some of the other car retailers as well.
Ford and GM also on the 52-week high list.
Yeah. A bunch of the automobile stocks are up there. Even some of the international automobile
stocks are on the 52-week high. There's been some strength in automobile stocks. There's been some
excitement around the robotics stuff. There's been Elon's pay package, the SpaceX IPO.
There's a lot of positive sentiment and positive catalysts around the stock.
And then obviously the chart has looked great for several weeks now.
So all those things coming together, that's a great confluence for it to go higher.
I mean, I like to see it.
I own Tesla.
Not as much of a weighting of my portfolio as it used to be because the portfolio has grown a lot.
used to be because the portfolio has grown a lot, but I still haven't sold a share since 2015.
But I still haven't sold a share since 2015.
I did find it a little interesting. You brought up other car makers, then I brought up Ford,
and then I went down another tangent on Ford. But that $19 billion write down that they took
yesterday or whatever it was, mostly on EVs, I thought the stock would have moved lower off of
that. And I was surprised to see it initially move higher. I didn't keep watching it for too long, but it didn't seem
like there was too much of a negative reaction on that one. That did surprise me a little bit,
but maybe I just, I don't know. Maybe I don't understand.
I'm sorry for the rapid-fire round, but I do know you have to go in a little bit.
This Robinhood event tonight. Yes, yes no event I don't know you
got any thoughts on it coming in here it's prediction markets probably AI as well um I
know prediction markets has been a theme that uh the market's getting really excited about obviously
Calci and the other one uh their their valuations have been going up aggressively and I know Robin
Hood's been making a lot of money from it so uh yeah you got any thoughts on this event tonight
have you seen anyone talking about it excited about it i don't know yeah i'm excited about it do you have any expectations i
mean so like the i think the prediction market thing is going to be huge one of the good things
about this right now is like as crypto has pulled back and obviously robinhood gets a lot of their
money from those crypto trading fees it's been i feel like it's been good for them to have this other part of the market
that people are excited about at this point yeah yeah i mean there's even if even if it's less than
the numbers and more just the story you know which we've talked about here yeah there's look there's
um robinhood is i mean that's another stock i'm never selling you know
speaking of tesla and robin hood um i mean i owned it at 19 i have no plans to sell it i don't think
it's going back there even in a market crash but um robin hood is just executing better than
any financial company in the modern era has i mean mean, they're growing so fast, top and bottom line.
They have an extremely loyal customer base at this juncture.
They are executing on new products and iterating more rapidly
than any financial company I've ever seen.
And so it's really hard to not have faith that they continue to grow
and continue to introduce better and better products.
I mean, they jumped on the prediction markets thing right away.
They jumped on the prediction markets thing before away. They jumped on the prediction markets thing
before the betting companies even jumped on it,
which shows you how willing they are to iterate
and how open-minded they are to new tech that's hitting.
I mean, they were one of the first to introduce overnight trading.
I think maybe they were the first out of all the big brokers
outside of IBKR, which had it prior to them,
but outside of the commission-free brokers, I'm pretty sure they were the first the prediction markets and then they
started layering on the credit card then they started offering insane uh return on your cash
that you were keeping with them that lasted like six or eight months tons of people moved their
money there because of that then they had this great bonus program transfer your brokerage i
mean they've just been very aggressive. Damn, do you know this?
Wow.
I didn't realize they opened up the prediction markets in March of this year.
I thought it was like the last month or two.
They were like one of the first major organizations to embrace it,
and smartly as well.
So, I mean, they've done a lot of all of them.
Hey, Stock Talk, let me say something real quick about this,
because you and I were on a space talking with a bunch of guys about this,
I think, last week.
And I just don't think people understand, and I don't think they got your gist in.
Prediction markets are event markets, not directional markets, right?
The guy on there was saying, like, well, why don't you – if you think something's going to happen for –
I think I gave the example of, let's say, Elon Musk gets cancer, right?
Why don't you just buy puts, right?
Just buy puts on –
We'll see a different example.
Well, you know what I'm saying.
So I gave a real-life example of when Steve Jobs was diagnosed by puts, right? It's just by puts on- Well, it seems a different example. Well, you know what I'm saying. So I gave a real life example of when Steve Jobs was diagnosed with cancer, right?
And they were talking about he was going to leave the company, leave the company.
And when he finally announced he left the company, the stock actually rallied, right?
So you're not necessarily playing how you think something is going to unfold directionally.
You're just saying the event's going to happen.
So it's almost like a neutral bet on just the event happening, not a direction. I think that's what people don't get and why it's
different than hedging against the position in the market. Sorry. Nope. Yep. You're exactly
correct. Yeah. That was the point I was trying to make too, but I think not that people are
understanding the point I was making, but yeah, that, yeah, that was the point I was making.
You're, you, you, you're guaranteed a payout on the event.
And a lot of times you think something's going to happen in the markets
and you position yourself one way and it happens,
but the markets don't react the way that you thought.
And that's like a real problem in capital markets
because people often think they're hedged and they're not.
I'm sure people have had this happen where you try to find some proxy
to a long exposure you have
and short it as a hedge. And then they both go up or they both go down or whatever. And
it just ruins the impact of your hedge. That's very common. So yeah, there are like ways to
hedge tail risk that are more direct. You can just obviously buy puts on the exact asset that you
have. That's one way to do it. But it still doesn't, like sometimes people don't want to hedge against price.
Sometimes people like don't, they don't want to hedge against day-to-day volatility.
They only want to hedge against a very specific scenario.
And I think that's what it's useful for.
Like I'm one of those guys that does not like to be hedged all the time.
Like there are people that like always have callers on their book or always have hedges on their book.
I think that's stupid because markets mostly go up.
So like, why? You just want to burn money. I mean, I guess if your portfolio is big enough,
you have like a billion dollar portfolio, then for peace of mind, maybe you do it. But like,
I mean, if you have like a multi seven figure book, I just don't see the need to do that.
to do that you're just burning tens of thousands of dollars to do it but I mean if you if you're
You're just burning tens of thousands of dollars to do it. But I mean, if you,
very smart about hedging you can do it well but for most people it's just much more direct to
hedge against the risk of event occurrence which is what they actually want protection against as
opposed to like day-to-day volatility like a lot of good investors with conviction to do research
don't care about day-to-day volatility like I don't care if my stocks are down 3% or 4% on a given day or even for a whole week.
What I care about is something going to happen that ruins the story.
And for me personally, I would love to hedge against those types of things.
But there's just not enough liquidity in markets, in prediction markets these days,
to do what I'm talking about for larger parties.
But for retail
I do wonder
if the opportunity is on
the person betting to know
selling the people these things
as opposed to the other side as there's not much liquidity
at this point, not enough liquidity for the things
markets have just closed
Did we close above the 21?
Did we close
above the 21?
The one week chart looks better by the way uh and we did yeah we did all-time highs 10 cents actually on my thing it doesn't look like we oh wait no
we did 10 cents above
no we didn't yeah i was gonna say mine looks a little below we did not you correct that like
what 20 cents below?
That's not going to happen much when we're talking chart stuff.
But I literally have the – I got the UMAs up.
I've been looking at them more.
I was actually looking at –
All-time high, closing high for Tesla.
All-time.
Yeah, okay.
So, yeah, we –
That's hilarious.
I was – because I was looking at Rivian earlier
the chart actually still does not look bad
at least
I'm updating the tweet I put out and saying never mind
wait what was your tweet
my tweet was
why recapturing 21 EMA into the close
but never mind
Hamid I got you I got you up here we're talking some stuff in the you made into the close, but never mind.
Hamid, I got you up here.
We're talking some stuff in the Hamid universe.
I see you unmuting. How are you doing, sir?
I'm curious. We didn't have a chance to talk since a lot of topics that you'll care about here.
A lot of Hamid names, but I do want to make sure
you cover Ravine at some point in it, but
I appreciate you, sir. Shout out Earnings Hub. There are
one or two earnings after the close today. Nothing big.
It was a Lenar, whatever, Worthy.
I don't know the other ones.
But yeah, Hamid, appreciate you.
Yeah, it's my pleasure.
So I attended the Rivian autonomy event last Thursday.
And I was pleasantly surprised.
So a few things that I was surprised about.
One is, actually, the biggest surprise of all was that Rivian has built their own AI chip, which is significantly like somewhere around four to eight times based on estimates faster than the hardware four that's in Tesla vehicles. Now, obviously, Tesla is working on hardware five,
which is going to be more capable than hardware four. But I was not expecting Rivian to have
in-house talent to be able to build their own chip, which actually is a significant improvement
over hardware four chips that Tesla has been building. So that was a huge surprise to
me. And one of the things that that told me is that Rivian has been able to attract the talent
necessary to actually get to full self-driving and autonomy capabilities in a way that I think
the market is very much underestimating their ability. So, you know, building an AI chip is pretty fucking hard,
and they've already done it.
So they already have had the talents to be able to do it
and have been working on it for years.
So that's like one major surprise.
Then the other things were that, like,
I took a demo ride in their self-driving capability.
I happened to also be at the 2019 Autonomy Day for Tesla.
And in similar fashion, they had a closed loop sort of demo ride.
But the difference is that the Rivian one was far more smooth.
It was much closer to the full self-driving capability
that I use every day in my Tesla,
but roughly about a year to year and a half ago's version of my Tesla FSD.
And the demo ride was being done not using LiDAR,
but they have like their camera systems as well as radar that they use.
It was pretty good. If that was available today,
I think, first of all, it would be the second best system after Tesla's. And I think it would
surprise a lot of people in terms of what Rivian has been able to do. So those two things alone was like a big, huge positive from my perspective.
And then, you know, having been in Rivian for just a little bit of time, maybe past couple of years, you know, I just wanted to see if, you know, I'm making a sound investment from that perspective. And I'm more confident than ever that this is like a technology company,
not just a car company, but it's a technology company that is very well focused on cars,
which happens to be a one and a half trillion dollar market. When Tesla has completely taken their eyes off the car track of being a tech company, so they've decided the robotics and
robo-taxis is the only way to go. And they've abandoned even sort of like building the models that they had promised that they would build.
So this sort of like leaves the door open for over the next couple of years for others to compete really well.
But even if Tesla wasn't leaving the door open, the transition to EVs is something that I believe is going to happen over the next decade.
So, you know, there could be easily three or four winners in this space because it's one and a half
trillion dollar space. So all of those combined makes me sort of even more confident about Rivian
than I have been. I mean, I know Robinhood is a name that we're talking. I'm a Robinhood fan, and I won't lie to you on the spaces.
There was a point at $8, $9.
This guy was buying Robinhood, and I thought,
I might even say it out loud.
I was like, oh, dumb decision there.
But here we are a couple years later, both in it much higher.
Got any thoughts on this Yes-No event coming up after the close AI prediction markets?
Anything you're watching for there?
No, I mean, I think in my view,
the prediction markets are too close to the betting markets.
And I mean, they are betting markets,
essentially gambling.
And I'm not crazy about the fact
that Robinhood has decided to really embrace this.
I love the revenue that it's generating.
And I think it's great for Robinhood
from a revenue perspective.
And as a shareholder, obviously I don't hate it,
because I think it's going to be a brighter future
for Robinhood from revenue and profits perspective.
But what I love Robinhood for
is all of the other things that Stock Talk was mentioning,
which is that they've just executed so well and brilliantly on all of their financial products. And now they're
introducing banking. I mean, that's like very much in line with what I think they should be focused
on and really like raking it all up in terms of being the all around financial services for
the masses. And I wish kind of like they were focused 100% on that as opposed to the betting stuff,
which sort of like causes, you know, the type of behavior that you wouldn't want your kids
to have, for example, which, you know, when I literally just decided for my 16 year old
to open a financial account, I would have opened the Robinhood account, but I didn't. I instead
opened the Fidelity account because I don't want them to be able to do any kind of betting
in the future, right? So in the same account that I'm encouraging them to learn about investing.
So that's a big problem.
One thing I will say, I don't disagree fully, actually.
But I've had this thought, and I've come to think of myself,
that same person will probably just go degen in options or degen in small caps or degen in crypto or something like that.
And yeah, but it's difficult because it does feel like
it's a little closer than some of the other stuff.
But options can be used incorrectly, but options can be used in a good way to hedge your portfolio and maximize and put
magnifying glass in some of your strongest beliefs. And just like these prediction markets,
as we were saying there, it's a little bit more of a direct way to say like, hey,
I can actually hedge myself towards stuff. I can actually have the real things in it. But
when you look at what's actually being used for 95 sports so uh
it's it's it's an interesting back and forth i've had it with myself i think you're not wrong in
that like uh some of the financial um hedging opportunities for sophisticated investors might
be a good thing the problem is that like it's sort of like, you know, being around drugs.
If you, if you go to parties that, uh, you're around drugs all the time, yeah, you could say
no every single time and come out of every party, like not doing drugs or whatever. But like,
the more you're exposed to it, the more likely you are to partake in it. And, uh, Robinhood
literally sends out notifications every time there's a football game or basketball
game or something that this team and this team are about to compete. And they're encouraging it
from that perspective. And again, as a shareholder, I'm like, okay, this is good from a revenue
perspective, profit perspective. But I kind of wish they were just completely focused
on the financial side of things and not on the betting side. The betting side, essentially,
when you take the combination of the bets that you're making, the combination of the two people
who are betting against each other, their money on a continuous basis simply decreases
and it goes to the house over time.
Whereas investing, you have this sort of like
the pie gets bigger effect and everybody wins,
including Robinhood.
So I'm not a fan on the betting side of things.
That's a good point. Yeah, I don't disagree at things. That's a good point.
Yeah, I don't disagree at all.
That's a very good point.
About the zero-sum game.
For me, what I wish
for me, I think the answer is closer
to, hey, just give me an option to
select this off. It is crazy that
I'm getting notifications about sports games.
And one thing that I have struggled with a little bit
is I don't keep money in my sports books and stuff i yeah listen i know myself i can you know i don't
want to go into dangerous areas but i do keep cash in my robin account and stuff like that i do have
all the stuff in there and it is a little bit more difficult for me to not go in that's why it's
brilliant though that's why it is brilliant i'm telling you i i in it's just so much more easy than me to go and take that back.
And I'm not using it transparently.
It's one of those obvious things.
In hindsight, it's fucking obvious.
But no one did it before Robin Hood.
We already knew for the last, I mean, I don't want to say the last 10 years because it's more like the last six years.
But for the last six years, everyone has known, especially since, I mean, I say six years because that was really the, not advent of commission-free brokers because E-Trade did
it long before, but that, like the popularization moment for commission-free brokers was COVID.
So six years ago, everyone knew that everyone was putting money on an app
they were downloading on the app store, whether it's Robinhood or Webull or whatever other
commission fee broker. And they're putting tens or hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars
into these apps. Like what other analog is that?
Is there for that in the modern app era?
Is there any app where people were depositing that amount of capital into it?
No, not even close.
Not even close.
Like people aren't putting a million dollars in their DraftKings account.
I mean, maybe, I mean, if you're like, I mean, maybe if you're like a billionaire,
like super rich and you don't care and you're like i mean maybe if you're like a billionaire like super rich and
you don't care and you're like whatever i'm just gonna blow this million dollars on sports bets
yeah maybe but very very or if you're a professional sports better maybe but like the rest of the
crowd okay maybe they're putting a couple thousand bucks or ten thousand bucks or whatever at the
most but like people aren't putting millions of dollars in their their sports spending apps neither are they for any other type of app ever right like think about it think about all the
apps that have ever been invented is there any you know analog to brokerage apps where people
are depositing hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars the answer is no there's not even a
remote analog there's not even like a you, not even one standard deviation below. Is there an analog? There's nothing close to it. And so we knew this was happening. And Robinhood
was the only one that was like, what? Everyone's putting all their money on our app. We better
give them ways to spend it. It's like a no brainer, obvious feature, but no one did it before Robinhood.
You know, it's, it's things like that that make you a leader, a market leader when you're
willing to do the obvious thing that like is sitting in front of the rest of the industry
and no one did it. I mean, even prior to that, E-Trade, who was kind of like one of the pioneers
of retail brokerage, you know, making it easy for everyone. They didn't do that.
Neither did IBKR. I mean, IBKR is at a desktop app forever.
They have people with tens of millions of dollars on that platform. They don't offer
them any other additional services to spend their money. It's kind of stupid. It is kind
of stupid, but Robinhood did it and they're doing it well.
Thank you. I think it was the right decision. I think that if i just had an opt-out button
that would change everything for me and that just makes it a little bit better or maybe you needed
an opt-in who knows what it exactly looks like but it clearly was the right decision to jump on
this and and yeah no i think you make some really really good points there stock talk on that this
is there is so much wealth so much numbers in, and it's kind of probably just a start. I know they had some deal, or maybe it was another
company with like a mortgage origination thing, which you can get through gold. And I don't think
they really reached their end game in that direction, but there are some, they do seem
to be expanding into a bunch of different areas very quickly. And they seem to be increasing,
accelerating that rollout. I know they've had a couple times where they've shown like their, their divisions and the stuff they're
rolling out. It is very interesting to see. We didn't get these type of stories as much
over the last couple of years as we are, are this year. Something's changed in this company
over the last two, three years, acceleration. So yeah, that was, that was definitely uh an interesting topic there i am curious what
they talk about at this event tonight exactly what they're going in i know there were some
rumors they may have might have made an acquisition in the area we'll see this is originally proposed
as an ai event and then it started to shift a little bit so i don't know it'd be an interesting
uh interesting night there tesla ended up closing the day below
broadcom i believe but for a couple minutes there tesla was back to being the seventh largest company
in the world uh sam solid how are you doing sir i don't know if there's any thoughts that you got
on the uh on the conversation that we are having here or what else you want to throw into the market
wait two minutes sorry no worries no worries i'm also back
by the way yes sir welcome back logical were you uh were you here for that last conversation got
any thoughts on the uh on the um robin hood prediction market area or no i don't think
i'm not really a that kind of stock person. But I think I definitely missed
the boat on Robin Hood. I think it's gonna be a great long long term. Yeah, so but there's
gonna be a lot of there's still a lot of cyclicality in the business. So as a holder of that business,
you got to be ready for some steep drawdowns.
Yeah, fair enough. I assume a market pullback and I'd assume a market pullback
actually for Robinhood wouldn't be too bad. I could definitely go back and look at the
numbers. What I think would be pretty bad is that sustained downturn is when the market
is red for a little bit and people start to get out as opposed to just be like, what's
happening? Well, I mean, no, I mean, i think you get a sharp pullback like this where a lot of retail's heavy speculative names take a very big pullback
i think it really does hurt them didn't we get their uh monthly update and it was down month
over month it was down a little bit in certain areas yeah i mean look they make a lot of money
off uh crypto and um like the high margin, I believe,
is from crypto and options, which is normal for brokers.
And if those things are not making people money, then they're less likely to speculate
on them.
So that's kind of, I think, still a big part of the cyclicality of the business.
There's still big time secular trends for the business, but there's cyclicality within
that.
Yeah not some crazy statements. This is one of the good things about the prediction markets here.
It's not it's you know it is showing up in the numbers but it is also a different theme that the
market can speculate and get excited about which is sometimes what the market needs and for a
company that is is moving quickly you know, sometimes those numbers can end up catching up nice and quick.
Yeah, that was interesting. I know you got cut off a little bit earlier. I don't know if there's
any topics were going on here that you're interested in. I don't know if Databricks
is a name or like an ecosystem. I saw there was, they're obviously a private company,
but I saw a story that they're raising $4 billion 134 billion dollar valuation i know a couple weeks ago and either
this story or something similar came out a couple stocks did move off of it a couple of the software
type names so yeah i don't know if that was i do use databricks every single day at my job so i know
that that breaks databricks is comparable to uh like a snowflake-ish it is right they seem to get
batch together yeah it is.
And at first I was like, oh, you know, like they're like the same thing.
I don't know why people make such a big fuss.
But no, like it is, Databricks is probably a far better product.
I think the way people will kind of frame it is like Databricks is more focused on AI use cases, data science,
machine learning, whereas like Snowflake is, you know, building out those capabilities,
whereas Databricks was kind of built on top, built on that. With that in mind, like, you know,
Snowflake gets the job done in like, I would say like 80 to 90% of use cases. There's probably like a 10 to 20% edge for Databricks.
And obviously that 10 to 20% is quite big
in today's world with the AI narrative.
So I think that's why it wins just on that.
And they're seeing probably more adoption
because of their focus on that.
But it doesn't mean that Snowflake
can't eventually catch up.
It's just kind of like how they design their systems
is like one is working forward,
the other one is working, you know, they started with it rather than having to build on top.
Yeah, actually funny enough, I just looked up Snowflake because I have been interested in the
stock but I have no position right now. I had a really nice candle today, so it's pretty
interesting. I know Sam raised his hand, so let's go to him.
Yeah, so regarding the Robinhood event, I kind of agree with logical on this one.
High beta stock, Martin gets sold off, it's going to get sold off as well.
I mean, yeah, the numbers that they printed out on their monthly report didn't really reflect such a strong month, but look at the move
on tech in the last couple of days.
I do think there's a bit of rotation, but I also agree with Stock Talk that it's not
really enough to keep the markets elevated.
But what we did see today was a large outperformance in tech.
I mean, you saw the queues basically up about 30.
I don't even know actually what it closed.
I think it was closed like 30 basis points or maybe like 20 basis points and uh spy has been pretty much red most of the
day rsp was also down just as much as spy which is just showing out that it's very heavily weighted
rsp is the equal weight so if you have um if you have both of those, if you have the equal weight down more than SPY itself, that likely
means that it's more of a broader selling and possibly that mega caps are outperforming
today.
I think that a large amount of what you've seen in the price action for Amazon today,
let's see here, NVIDIA and a few other mega caps is that they're actually pretty
strong all day um against the the downward fall of the queues going all the way down i think it
went down at like 607 or 606. uh we're seeing queues pull back a little bit after hours today
i was actually hoping that it was going to reclaim the uh 20 day and 50 day moving average but i
didn't we didn't quite get that and logical point or not that we did not
reclaim the 21 EMA
on SPY. So we're still in the downtrend here,
in my opinion, on the short-term basis.
It's pretty interesting seeing
Amcor down like 9% today.
That's
that hit the portfolio a little bit, so I'm not going to lie.
I couldn't find any news.
Was there news on that?
That something happened with Ancor?
Maybe...
No, there's no specific news.
Nothing.
It's just...
Dude, it's up like a bazillion percent.
It's like up 50% in like a month.
It's doubled in like two months.
Yeah, I mean...
It's gonna...
That's gonna happen.
Especially when you get...
Okay, but then that's 10%.
Like, I mean, I don't know.
That's...
Dude, I mean...
Seems like a very strong move
when the Q's is basically found in the day. I don't know.'s uh dude I mean it seems like a very strong move when the Q's is basically fountain today I um I mean I would just pay attention to the volume too maybe
it's preceding some news but yeah could be preceding no man it's happening during a broad
market sell-off I'd agree with that take if it was like in a vacuum and like nothing else was
selling off but like you know that would be a little bit more ominous but when everything is
selling off and all in the tech sector I i'm just not looking into any individual names well a lot of things that
have to do with semiconductors are down broad comm is down and everything so like i'm not
surprised but i've seen the relative performance of amcor in the midst of all the selling pressure
and semiconductors as a whole so that's why i was wondering i mean you know it is what it is i know
the market's gonna do whatever i just wasn't sure if there was like news that I might have
missed or anything. But there are quite a few things that got sold off today that just has
not recovered. But it is good to see that Zeta's green on the day. On semiconductor is not green
in the day, but it was performing relatively nice throughout the entire day. But, you know, from a broader perspective,
I mean, I came in today with some hedges, sold them. It looks like we're trying to bounce, but
it's just really tough to say. Like, I'm not, I don't want to press anything, but I would like to
see some recovery in the market before like trying to maybe go back and putting on some leverage,
putting on some margin, whatever it is.
Until then, I think you just got to wait and see here.
I mean, SPY is still above the 50-day moving average.
It was good to see.
I'm not sure.
Is it above the 20-day moving average?
I haven't checked that one, actually.
But Qs are still below the 20 and the 50. So I think that relative underperformance is going to continue with a lot of tech.
It is surprising to see that Tesla is insanely strong on a day like today all day,
while the market is heading the complete other direction.
I didn't see a lot of healthcare moving like it had been in the last week today.
So who knows?
Maybe you might get a little bit of a bounce on tomorrow.
Tomorrow is VIX-piration.
We basically have a lot of VIX options expiring tomorrow.
So maybe a lot of those calls are going to be going worthless
for people who are hedging with VIX calls and so on.
It's very tough to say exactly what's going to happen there,
but it's into some of these events where there's going to be
a massive amount of volume for second derivative assets.
It's just, I don't know if I want to really press one side too much.
Go ahead.
I just want to say something.
Tesla made a new all-time hub today.
The sectors that were leading
were travel, leisure,
consumer discretionary.
I understand that they can't
keep the market up.
I understand that.
But that's not bearish.
Nothing about any of what I just said is bearish.
Yeah, I mean, there's really nothing that's bearish
other than the moving averages.
I think if anything, you got the Oracle report
and it's kind of built on a house of cards
or so people are going to call it.
And then you're going to get kind of some scares and anything.
The semi companies report, even though just remember that the NVIDIA report was incredible a month ago.
And it sold off.
Yeah, it sold off.
People just have jitters, man.
But there's nothing about the fundamental case that is breaking down in my view.
about the fundamental case that is breaking down in my view.
You're getting QE.
You're getting QE.
The unemployment rate number today basically confirms
that that's not going to slow down or turn back around.
I'm looking at the setup.
And like you said, like Hughes or MegaCap Tech
was actually holding up really well today.
I mean, is it possible that the selling or the degrossing
in that sector had just kind of... I mean, you look at the selling today.
And if you look at individual names, a lot of names actually, you know, bounced to green or didn't sell off as hard.
I mean, the last two days, yesterday and Friday were actually very brutal selling for me and my portfolio.
But today was much more tame.
So I look to clues and I feel that selling is getting exhausted.
I'm not, you know. I agree. I think it's getting exhausted. But
if I'm going to play with some options and stuff, I want to see.
I'm not playing options. I think anyone who's pushing options here doesn't really respect
the risk. I respect the risk. I only own equity. I am levered long though. So that's my form of
leverage. I just don't think options make a ton of sense here. The am levered long though. So that's my form of leverage.
I just don't think options make a ton of sense here.
The risk reward is not good.
Stocks have been up for years in a row.
There isn't like, I mean, look, there's good value at the equity level.
But anytime you buy options, you're paying premium.
And I understand like if you're like, oh, I'm going to, you know, risk my premium or whatever.
And that's my risk. But it's like, you have to remember to get paid on that option, you have to end up in the money.
The premium you're paying is saying that you're going to have to get a 10 or 20% move on top of
the shares just to start breaking even on that option. And obviously, people can say, well,
you don't need to wait and hold the option. You could just trade it if you get a move in your
direction. Sure. But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about like actual, you know, like the intrinsic value of the option.
So yeah, and you're at a pivotal juncture of like, does this go up?
Does this go down in terms of the market?
So there's really not good risk reward.
I think, you know, that's how people will end up like killing their accounts is
trying to call bottoms with options.
Well, I mean, just the volatility today was like, we can go up, we're going to go down, we're going to like, yeah, but you trying to call bottoms with options well i mean just the
volatility today was like we're gonna go up we're gonna go down we're gonna like yeah you can't
call that you know day was like that and it's it's not for me it's just not an environment that
i really want to be a part of unless i'm doing like a maybe a medium to long-term swing but
other than that today like it looked like we're gonna recover we didn't right i'm not saying
that we're gonna go lower i'm just saying we did recover we did recover come on seriously but we did close below
that oh who cares i'm talking about what do you mean who cares dude like you were just talking
about it earlier on twitter like that those things like they're kind of telltale signs when you're
gonna when for me when i'm gonna start pressing options and leverage. But until then, like, I need to see something. We're not that far away from recovering.
I'll clarify.
I said you shouldn't own options or leverage.
Or in that, you shouldn't own leverage in the form of options, I think.
What I'm trying to say is, if you're going to sit here and tell me
that the move off the lows today is not somewhat of a recovery,
dude, it could have ended.
Okay, what would the sentiment be on this space right now
if we closed at or below the 50-day?
If we closed at the lows of the day today,
what would be the sentiment?
The sentiment would be like,
I'm cutting all my positions.
That would be the difference.
What?
I don't do that.
I never cut all my positions,
especially if we closed below the 50-day moving average.
I'm just saying you're going to cut,
you're going to trim a lot is my point you're going
to get defensive you're going to buy hedges you don't take it so literally my point is
if you're going to sit here and tell me that today's selling was just as bad as the last
two days of selling when you actually I did not say that okay I'm just saying you just said you
guys just said it wasn't a recovery I think there was a recovery intraday.
No, of course there was a recovery from the lows of the day, but the stock market closed flat.
It pretty much closed flat. Actually, yeah. The indices closed flat.
That's an improvement to me.
Okay. Wait, what's your
point did I say something you disagree
with like I don't
like what
you came down to a key level and it
bounced hard I would say that's
progress the point that I'm
trying to make is that I'm
not trying to
throw on any options that expire
in the next couple of weeks or anything right now.
Yeah, we're talking about different things.
Yeah, I mean, from a long term perspective, I mean, the market is bullish. Like I don't,
it's so just because even we broke like the 20 50 day moving average in the queues, it doesn't
mean the market is like going to turn balls to the wall bearish or anything, especially if SPY
is above the 50 day. But even then, you know, I do agree fundamentally, like, it does not seem like
a, if we're at a rate hike cycle, completely different story, right? Or Powell was hinting
that you can start hiking rates, completely different story, right? We, it would, it would
paint a pretty bearish backdrop for stocks and for companies that like to raise a lot
debt, dah, dah, dah, dah, and so on. We're still in a bull market, right? And we haven't even gotten a correction.
We haven't even gotten a bear market.
We technically have not gotten a bear market
on a closing day basis, right?
We were 23% down from all-time highs last April,
but we're technically still in a bull market.
And I don't think so,
but some people argue that we're still,
we've been to bull markets since 2010.
I think we had that rate high cycle
that took us out of the bull market. We restarted the new one. I don't think we started a new bull markets in 2010. I think we had that rate high cycle that took us out of the bull market.
We restarted the new one.
I don't think we started a new bull market last April.
I think we're still in the same bull market that we were in before.
So to liquidate everything and start buying puts in everything, yeah, maybe a little bit
of hedges.
But for me, I don't think even now is the time to buy hedges for the downside.
I think it's just a little bit of wait and see what's going to happen.
And once we start to get some confirmation as far as which direction we're going to see,
which I thought we were going to get today after we got the unemployment report that
we haven't gotten since September data.
They didn't really look that good.
Unemployment went to 4.6, but the Fed was expecting 4.7.
So was it really that bad of news?
Probably not.
We might even print a 4.7 next month.
Who knows? But the general direction is down in terms of unemployment percentage. And the general direction of inflation is down. So if you have GDP still elevated, you have inflation getting more tamed, you have unemployment basically topping at this point.
topping at this point, it paints a Goldilocks picture. And Goldilocks is generally bullish
for stocks. But if we're talking about options in the short term, or even leveraging options,
leverage, whatever, what have you, I'm not suggesting for what other people should do.
I'm just saying what I'm going to do. This isn't really a time where I'm going to be like,
holy cow, I'm going to start pressing some calls like we had been about a few weeks ago when we
bounced off those lows on that Friday morning
or the Thursday afternoon, whenever it was.
Much different scenario, in my opinion.
And I would say that we just got to wait and see,
or I want to wait and see until we recover some moving averages,
especially the 20 and the 50 day in the queues,
before I start to get bullish tech where I'm going to be looking for options to put on.
The Robinhood event tonight? I don't know. It's going to be pretty interesting to see how the market's going to be.
Robinhood has been insanely strong all day. I thought it was just going to fade in the middle
of the day, but it hadn't. So I think the market's waiting to see what's going to happen to that
event. We have seen certain events coming up, namely the meta event rallying into the event.
And then of course it happened the night and then those wifi issues where everything broke
and the stock was down like 5% the next day.
I still get a little upset.
I was so excited for the rollout of those meta Ray-Ban displays and I would have got them.
I mean, I'm sure you've heard some stuff around.
Like if I would have seen some good, like heard good reviews from it, I probably would have
bought that day of. I have not, I've sure you've heard some stuff around. Like, if I would have seen some good, like, heard good reviews from it, I probably would have bought that day of.
I have not heard a thing.
And anything I have heard is like, yeah, you know, it's okay.
It's okay.
I have not heard anything.
And I was super excited for those.
A little upset, actually.
Me too.
I mean, I couldn't agree more.
It's funny because I think they kind of fucked up on the initial user experience
and the way in which they even sold the display ones in particular.
You had to go in it.
So to get the displays, you had to go in an in-person appointment.
And most of the appointments for me were like 45 minutes away in New York City.
Yeah, it was so dumb.
It was so dumb.
It probably just means it's not ready.
No, 100%.
I think this was sort of like an experimental thing, just to put it out
there, but
this keeps the door open
in terms of who can potentially lead
in this area, because if Apple
comes out with something, you
better believe the first user experience
is not going to be horrific the way
Meta's was. But
Apple being Apple, they might get the
price wrong. Meta got the price right,
which was, you know, very encouraging. People were ready to dish out 800 bucks,
but they didn't get the user experience or the buying experience right. So,
they totally screwed up in that regard. And then, you know, Google is going to be probably
launching theirs next year sometime.
And it remains to be seen how well they do in terms of rolling that out
because Google is also not well known for getting the user experience right.
So we'll see.
It's still a very open field.
Yeah, I mean, Apple, it just wasn't time.
Obviously, if the costs were that high to even create the product,
they had to pass on those costs over to the consumer,
and the consumer was just not ready, especially for what they had to offer.
And I mean, I think that the Meta event had too many eyes on it.
And had it not, like, let's say Meta was trading around like 500 bucks,
and the event wasn't
so hyped up i i don't think it would have been that big of a deal but i think the stock was
trading around all-time highs during that time like 770 bucks or something and people were very
enthusiastic about it they wanted to see meta at a thousand it just becomes a massive disappointment
i mean who knows like what if they had the event when the stock was 600 bucks well we have seen
the same scenario play out for the stock the day after.
But the timing was just, it was pretty bad timing, especially in terms of the markets.
I think that was around the time when the market kind of topped off in October as well.
But as far as the product goes, I did go to a store recently and I tried out a few of their products.
tried out a few of their products i had thought that it was it was ar like you would see you
I had thought that it was AR.
basically see everything as an overlay on the glasses themselves or on the screen that you're
looking at and it is not the case you're only it's only two cameras that are on there that's
transmitting data to your phone or whatever device you have and it's like i don't know if i want this
this doesn't really those are the old ones for the record there they came out with new displays that
does have the heads-up display on them.
Are they actually out?
Yeah, but as we're talking about there, you have to go get an appointment.
It's a little limited.
All the appointments were taken up.
Let me actually go and look what that looks like right now.
I don't like the Vision Pro, the fact that you're staring at four gigantic screens less than one inch away from your eyes.
I don't think that's going to work. I don't don't think that people are gonna walk around those especially like you
need to have like that ar in my opinion from a consumer standpoint well again that's that is
that is definitely where it's going yeah so here we're we're in a very interesting space here
because this is not a product this is not a technology that is really where it's going to be
so there's different strategies going on right now apple came out with a strategy of we are going to show you what's
possible today at a price that's not really doable um oculus is showing you like hey this is what we
can actually create some good stuff today and this meta ray-bans display to me um like this is
obviously the form fact this is what we can do in the form factor that is right
is kind of that thing and transparently it doesn't seem like you could do a lot I am looking at these
signups here and there is like no 20 there I can't even take a demo appointments clerk currently
available for most of these ones so a little difficult but yeah this it's it's a weird
space in that market right now because the technology is not where it's going to be
where it probably should be before it to take over so companies are taking different perspectives on
it um showing you what's possible just anyway showing you what's possible in the form factor
that's going to work constrained by stuff i believe if i'm not wrong hamid i think the
the displays have an external battery am i wrong on that no it's uh it's all built in okay that's at least better than the the apple uh external
battery thing for 3 500. yeah i don't know what apple was thinking with the 3 500 devices like
their six thousand dollar monitor i mean it's basically dead on arrival. It doesn't matter how good it is. People just cannot afford a $3,500 optional device.
I don't know who's not thinking over there,
but that was definitely not thoughtful.
I do see we have StockSniper up here.
He's on that Wolf Defense account, if anyone who doesn't know.
StockSniper.
Started some Wolf Defense over there.
He's into that part of the market, those stocks.
So you enjoy that as well.
I know we'll be covering a lot of more of the stocks
and the defense contracts and the stories there
than just geopolitical news.
But yeah, I'd imagine ARVR, I know,
is a big conversation in that defense area as well microsoft
that hollow lens thing i don't know exactly where it's at but i know they're pretty far ahead and
obviously cost is not a problem in that side of the world uh snipey have you looked into arvr at
all is that anything you see on the side oh okay never mind yeah all right try to bring him in through his phone away somewhere no worries at all
hamid i want to actually circle back to you on this one is there there any other i know we talked
about we were circling in on one or two of the the names in your portfolio
there um and we're kind of dancing around meta here a little bit in in that conversation where
is meta stock at right now i'm not a good day or two today you're hanging out around 60 657
um the sign looks did that change what'd you say stock looks exhausted no the selling looks
exhausted yeah it bought it now the other week, I think.
It's really been just going sideways for the last two, three weeks or so from like this November 28th getting up to $645.
It's been going up since in the last two, three weeks.
In fact, I bought it roughly a month ago at $600.
it's in the 650s right basically i think meta is one of the um the most undervalued uh mega cap
It's in the $650, right?
stock that there is the company is executing on all cylinders in terms of revenue growth
which is faster than google apple microsoft apple or uh netflix uh tesla you name it um yeah
i'm looking at your portfolio i feel like i've seen
less names in here than you had before did you sell some stuff 30 cash too yeah i've consolidated
i've i basically have five bets um and uh one of them is meta i think meta is the like the safest
stock out there in terms of mega cap it's trading trading at like a PE of 21, 22, somewhere in that
neighborhood, which is significantly lower than all the others in its category. Like Google is
much higher, but Google is growing at 13% annually. Meta is growing at 21, 22% annually. So
they're growing faster than everybody else. And then they have all this AI investment that they currently have zero direct revenue from.
They only have indirect revenue from improved ad serving from their AI.
So once their AI products actually start to produce revenue, it's going to be all additive, meaning like they're getting 20 percent revenue growth without any new products, but they're working on new products that are AI-based,
and they've been accumulating a ton of AI talent.
So I think they're making all the right bets.
They're still founder-run, unlike Apple, Microsoft, Google.
So Meta is my favorite mega-cap company.
Meta is my favorite mega cap company.
But my much larger bets have been on Rivian and some of the others.
But yeah, it's a pretty large bet on Meta.
I actually sold all of my Google to transfer it over to Meta.
And the next day, Meta crashed.
Four or five percent. went up uh five or
six percent but uh since then it's actually meta is ahead of google now since uh since i made that
trade so yeah i've been there it happens it happens sometimes one could claim the reason
it happened is because you made the move yeah exactly the world does circle around me if you guys didn't know that um but yeah that's an interesting one and then actually if you guys
didn't know you can see the means portfolio in real time for free shout savvy trader that's uh
the link in his bio one of the two other ones earnings hub but rocket lab is another name in
there and the space theme has gotten really hot over the last couple days and weeks and i haven't
really checked into it a little bit.
I actually took a little bit of an earnings gamble around Planet Labs, which worked out.
I think Logical, you might have also been in that one.
Which one?
If I'm not incorrect.
Yeah, so PL is not doing so bad.
You got any thoughts on this space theme here, Hamid?
Rocket Lab specifically, if you want to go in that direction.
I think it's been a little since we've talked about it.
Yeah, so I think Rocket Lab is in an incredibly awesome position.
It's the only publicly traded space company
that is actually doing cool stuff.
SpaceX is obviously not yet public.
When it eventually does go public, if it does next year,
we're talking about a $1.5 trillion valuation.
Rocket Lab is currently like a $22 billion valuation.
And it's like the second biggest space company
in terms of putting rockets into orbit.
And they're about to launch
their reusable rocket, Neutron,
early next year.
So if you don't know about Rocket Lab
and you're excited about SpaceX,
check them out.
They're the real deal.
The founder, Peter Beck, he's like a self-taught engineer
that is absolutely awesome and very much down to earth
and heads down executing on Rocket Lab.
So I love this company.
I think it has a very, very bright future,
but, and I think it can, it has tons of room to grow, and it can continue to grow revenues at 50% year over year for at least the next 10 years, maybe longer, and maybe even faster than 50% annualized growth rate.
So very bullish on Rocket Lab long term.
Short term, you know, it is not cheap.
It was cheap a couple of years ago when,
or a year and a half, two years ago,
when I first got into it.
It was trading for about $2 to $3 billion market cap range.
And now it's like a $22 billion market cap.
So it's a lot more than it was,
but it's still a great company.
And then if Blue Origin goes public, that could be another potentially great company.
They just launched their New Glenn rocket, which is significantly bigger than the Falcon
9 rocket.
I think it can take more than twice the payload of Falcon 9 to orbit. And they just successfully launched it for the first time and landed it back just a couple of weeks ago.
So they're the second company to be able to do reusable rockets.
It's the company that's owned by Jeff Bezos, as most of you probably already know.
But it's not public and there's no discussion of when it might be public.
But if that company goes public, it's definitely going to have a multi-hundred billion dollar market cap
for the same reasons SpaceX is going to have a one and a half trillion dollar market cap.
Yeah, so Raka Labs stands as the only public company you can invest in that's growing in a pretty fast magnitude.
It has government exposure, defense exposure, I believe international exposure to the neutron,
and then eventually, much later on, they're going to have a proton rocket.
I think that's clearly talking heavy, right?
the Falcon Heavy, right?
I mean, it's the only way that people can probably invest
in this entire space theme.
It's difficult to find one, you know?
And I think even a lot of the space names
are getting a bit of a bidding.
That includes the ATX, which is technically,
they're not really a space logistics platform or anything.
So it's kind of confused why that one was finding a bidding,
but hey, the entire sector was going up for a minute. And then of course that thing came
to a halt. But I would say that that's probably one of the names that would look to go along if
the market did have a bit of a recovery here, specifically closing above some moving averages
to look like they're going to reclaim some moving averages here. Rock Lab would probably be a name that I might play with leaps on to the upside.
But yeah, I mean, long-term wise, I did own this company in like the 16s and I ended up
selling it in like the 50s or something.
Probably not a good idea to sell that company, but I mean, hey, what can you do?
Great company though.
I know a lot of people, and it's probably including yourself and me that was buying
the stock in like a four or $5 range, which is insane. I still remember that day when
they announced that they were diluting some shareholders and it was like $4.50 in it.
Pre-market, it was like below $4. And oh my my goodness and here we are today it's about 50 bucks just crazy to see that kind of stuff happen yeah it's uh it's super interesting to me i mean
it seems like a lot of sentiment has to do with uh stock price and when when i started buying
rocket lab it was uh i think five and a half dollars was my like initial purchase but over
the course of the next few months maybe six months it just kept going
down and it and as it went down i was like this is unbelievable i'm buying some more and it went
all the way down i think my lowest price purchase was in the three and a half uh dollar range which
was roughly 30 40 percent lower than what i started buying the uh the uh stock ad um to me
you know it was just just as solid as the company.
It just was getting cheaper.
And I couldn't believe that you could own a space company
that's putting satellites into orbit
and making some of the satellites, by the way.
They're like a satellite component provider as well.
In fact, 70% of their revenue comes from satellites.
I couldn't believe you could buy this company
for less than $2 billion.
And, you know, of course, once it started becoming a much more, the stock price 10x over the course of a year.
But way more people were interested in buying it at 10 times the price at a $15-$20 dollar valuation than at a 2 billion dollar valuation.
So I feel like a similar sort of thing is happening with Rivian.
You know, Rivian, here's this technology company that has three amazing products that customers
love.
Rivian customers absolutely love their vehicles.
In fact, they have the highest satisfaction rate of any vehicle out there, including Tesla's.
85% customer satisfaction rating.
Just for comparison, number two, which is Subaru, is like 71% and Tesla is 69%.
So customers love their vehicles.
They've built all this technology for building a software-based vehicle. The battery technology, the over-the-air update technology, everything, all the electronic components that you need to run a vehicle, mostly in-house. They've built all that technology in-house and they have been doing it over the past 15 or so years,
maybe longer actually, something like 18 years.
And this company is valued at only $22 billion.
I mean, there is no other sort of tech company
that has built this much technology.
And by the way, they just built their own AI chip
and they're going to be putting full self-driving capabilities
into their vehicles over the next year.
There's no other company that even has remotely as much technology
that is valued so inexpensively.
So, you know, this is another one of those things
where way more people will be interested in Rivian at $100 a
share than people who are interested at $18. And that's how I feel about it. Of course,
there's always risk. These companies are not profitable. Rivian is not a profitable company.
So there is always that risk that it has to continue to raise more money. And as it raises
more money, it gets diluted um more and sure you know price might
go down as a result of that but when you think about the only other car company that is ahead
of rivian is valued at 1 500 billion dollars versus 22 billion then it sort of puts things
in perspective that the upside potential of rivian despite the higher risk is significantly greater.
And that's why I own Rivian now.
And that's why I'm still accumulating Rivian as opposed to some of the other
stocks.
Still accumulating.
Interesting.
My last purchase was maybe in the 13s or 14s,
just in the last month and a half, two months ago.
So that's near time.
Actually, we can probably see it in my portfolio, which is public, but it may have been even 15s.
But it's actually my single largest dollar amount investment, meaning like right now, the percentage of my portfolio in Rocket Lab is number one, but I haven't put as much dollars into Rocket Lab. The reason it's number one is because Rocket Lab has increased in value and I haven't sold more Rocket Lab now than I have put into it.
Same thing with Robin, but the single company investment that I've largest company investment that I've ever made
is in Rivian.
Okay. Interesting. What do you want to see over the next year or so with it?
Obviously we had that AI event,
but do you want to see over the next year or what are you watching to track
and make sure that you are, like Casey said earlier,
making a sound investment? I know you were there um i'm curious i mean obviously uh the r2 launch needs to be a success and there
needs to be positive reviews for the for the vehicle um they need to be able to sell every
single r2 that they can possibly make in 2026. Now, the unfortunate part is that they're
not likely to make very many of them. Maybe it's going to be in the tens of thousands,
but it's not going to be 100,000. So the impact in terms of profit margins is like 2026, they're
still going to lose a few billion dollars. The fortunate part for them, though, is that they have $7 billion in cash,
so they can easily ride through losing a few more billion.
But 2027 is where the rubber needs to hit the road
and become a very rapidly scaled product for the R2 vehicle to become profitable at the end of
2027. So their rough timeframe for becoming a profitable company or cashflow positive company
is end of 2027, early 2028. And I think that that is a reasonable timeframe. Now,
most people are not that patient. So two years is a pretty long amount
of time to wait. And during those couple of years, as we wait for them to reach that,
it could be very bumpy. You never know. Stock could go down. But it's also possible some people
might start looking at this thing more seriously and be like, wait a second, these guys are second
to Tesla? And they're legit second to Tesla. There is no other American or European car company that comes
even close. There might be some Chinese or maybe Hyundai, which is a South Korean company that
comes close, but no other American or European car company comes close and their valuation is ridiculously cheap
based on the amount of technology that they have built.
And you can't just build that technology.
As we know, Ford just took a $20 billion write-off because they tried to build that technology
and they just wasted $20 billion by canceling the product that they were.
I was surprised to see Ford stock move lower, not move lower.
What's the? yeah i mean like the the reason they didn't move lower is because the way that uh that stock
is valued is not based on uh the futures based on current revenues and cash flow and profitability
and shutting down their ev or ev products can actually make them more profitable so um some
some might even view that as a positive. But
essentially, most of the ICE car companies, meaning internal combustion engine car companies,
they're dead man walking. And they're all going to go out of business. The question is whether
it's going to take five years or 15 years. It's going to be somewhere between five and 15, though.
The transition to EVs is an inevitable right like there's
no way that we're gonna 50 years from now everybody's gonna have gas cars that's just
not something that's gonna happen
i mean could i ask you a question?
Can you hear me all right?
Yeah, of course.
Yep, we got you.
Do you think that it's possible that it might be more profitable for Ford to sell hybrid vehicles as opposed towards full EV vehicles, considering all the leaders in the EV market at this very moment?
Well, the reason it's more profitable for them is because they know how to make those and consumers are still buying them.
But the reason people are not buying Ford's EVs is because, A, they didn't have NACs up until more recently, meaning the port was not Tesla supercharger compatible.
They didn't have their own charging network.
I mean, the reason people didn't use to buy EVs is because of all the problems that Tesla
solved, right?
You need a charging network.
It needs to be everywhere.
You need to have long range.
And the car needs to be still great.
You know, it needs to be a great car.
And Ford sort of failed on a whole bunch of, like all the car companies and ford sort of failed on a whole bunch of like
all the car companies by the way failed on a whole bunch of these things not just ford so you know
when when the entire car is not software driven meaning you can't just do over there updates to
update its a its brake system for example even just something as simple as that, right? Because they use different OEMs and consolidate the parts and software from different OEMs. They can't just
update the entire car at once with a single software update. These are things that Tesla
introduced essentially as concepts. And they just are not making the vehicles that people want. Rivian, on the other
hand, is following in the same footsteps as Tesla. It's doing some things unique. And, you know,
it hasn't taken its eyes off of the vehicle ball, if you will, meaning like it's still very much
focused on building more and better vehicles
as opposed to Tesla who's moved on from vehicles to robots and robotaxis. So in the vehicle space,
it's going to be a two horse race in my view. And it's going to be between Tesla and in the
clear number one position, by the way, I'm not saying Rivian is going to overtake Tesla.
And Rivian in the number two position in terms of EVs, if you were to fast forward like five years from now, that's going to be the two car companies that are making the most EVs in the United States at the very least, and possibly in Europe as well.
So, you know, that's the way I see it is that these guys are a great second.
They're a great Pepsi to the Coke, where Coke is Tesla and Rivian is Pepsi, right?
Yeah, I absolutely agree.
I have to say that the progress that Rivian made on autonomy day did seem to be a little further
than a lot of people anticipated. I personally see the Ford situation just a little bit differently.
I personally think that it is, obviously they did take the massive hit from pivoting, but I think
just like you said there, it seems like Ford really has the EV situation pretty figured out with some great products, you know, like EcoBoost Mustang is a good example.
And I do think that personally, in my perspective, I think that that is a bullish shift.
They're pretty much realizing what's working and what will more likely work in 2026.
I also think them dialing back on EVs
will also benefit Rivian and Tesla slightly. Yeah, those are some interesting points we got there.
some interesting points uh we got there i don't know the uh the oh oh damn uh the oem market is
a very interesting one uh i don't spend too much time focused on it but i have been watching gm for
today hitting on that 52 week high list and i found it interesting the um the uh
with that write down that ended up moving higher but your explanation there does make sense the
fact that it might actually increase profitability in the short term as they make lower uh investments
in the long term which isn't probably a good thing for the long term but hey it probably makes some
of those shareholders uh happy there we don't have a paul up here right i've been sending you
some invites i see you down below would love to get uh oh there we go
what's up paul hey how are you guys doing well doing well sir i don't know if you've heard this
conversation or any part of it we've had on today we're talking a little 4gm versus tesla obviously
tesla hit new all-time highs i find that to be an interesting one there's also a robin hood
event coming up
after the close today uh we're gonna circle in on some other stuff in the discussion here but
i was wondering if on any of those ones they had any uh interesting thoughts there
or any interesting thoughts in the conversation yeah the first thing i had when i saw the ford
news today i actually have a really good friend that's very very high up at ford and you know i
only buy ford cars because I get that special,
like, X-Plan and stuff like that. And it always perplexed me because, you know, I feel like they
were compelled or forced to get into the EV space. You know, they were trying to create bigger,
better, you know, vehicles that were all electric. And there was a massive amount of investment that
was going into that. And I mean, a lot of this is politically driven, right? Which administration is pushing, you know, a certain type of scenario,
right? And so now after going down that rabbit hole for so many years, investing so much money
and going down that path, they realize it's really not good for their business model.
And so they make a decision. And again, when you're talking about like these, you know,
old established
companies that have been around for years, they've got their business model, they're doing really
well. And like people want those types of vehicles, like even, even me, like I tend to think like,
you know, like I'm, I'm all for electric vehicles, but I don't want to be forced to have an electric
vehicle. And I don't, I don't, if I'm going to have like a, you know, a Ford F-150 series, like I prefer to have a gas or at least some kind of hybrid,
right? I want the high performance, like there's something to be said about those kinds of vehicles.
So, so now they're just going to, it looks like they're going to go back to their knitting.
The thing that I hope for them and for GM and for others that, you know, have the ability to,
to move forward is that in another three that, you know, have the ability to move forward
is that in another three years, they don't have to change course or don't feel compelled to change
course. Um, because the, the, the thing that gets me is like all of this, all of these write downs
and change of direction and all that stuff, it's terrible for the consumer and it's terrible for
the cost of vehicles and it's terrible for the dealerships.
And so, you know, hopefully they get to a place where, you know, they can carve out their niche.
I don't think it's going to go anywhere. I think people are going to use gas fuel vehicles for a long period of time, whether that's, you know, 100 percent
gas or a combination of, you know, electric and gas um and um you know i just hope they could
build off that and i i think like once you get past the write down potentially this is good news
for ford and good news for a gm um and then as far as tesla like i heard you guys talking about that
like you know it always perplexes me when people get out ahead of themselves with Tesla.
I think I said this on a show and somebody like made fun of me like too bad. Like I've never
owned Tesla ever in my entire life. I've never owned Tesla. And I know I missed out on that.
Tesla's always one of those stocks that no matter what level of trades at,
I can't get my arms around it. And I always feel like i'm the guy like when i get in everybody should run out the door um because
that's probably the top um but i have never gone into it and just recently i was looking at it
going hmm i wonder what's happening here like the price is moving it's very volatile up and down and
then it takes another leg and the
only you know the only thing that i could say is like trust ron baron he's he's right about it all
the time um and they're selling the future right they're selling this dream that they're going to
be the dominant robo taxi um and that they're gonna you know do very very well and i who am
i to say anything about it? I've never made
a cent on it. And if I would have invested money in Tesla and held onto it the first time I looked
at Tesla, God, what a return that would be. And I never pulled the trigger. So I would never bet
against Tesla. But then again, I've never betted for it. And if Elon Musk can fulfill what his promise is, they'll grow into that
valuation and more. And God bless all the people who had the courage to get in and make money.
Yeah, those are some interesting points there. I do want to read something out because I know
we're going to talk some ticker specific stuff
and we're lucky to be having
the Leverage Shares team up here.
First of all, you should make sure
you're following all the speakers,
Hamid and Sam
and that Wolf Defense account up here
and Leverage Shares account
is putting out some great content as well.
You should make sure you're following them.
If you enjoy these type of conversations,
make sure you're following the host of this space.
But we are lucky to be able to work
with really reputable people
like the team over at
Leveratures. I want to read something out quickly so we can talk some ticker specific stuff, but
this is the type of thing that allows us to keep our content for free forever. And yeah, but an
investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses
before investing. A fund's prospectus, summary prospectus contains this and other information
about the themes ETFs from leverage shares. To obtain the prospectus and key information
documents, go to their website, themesetfs.com. A fund's prospectus and key information document
should be read carefully before investing. We're excited to be working with the themes ETFs and
leverage shares team. So we appreciate you for joining. I want to circle in
on this space today, Paul, and talk a little bit more about the generative AI theme,
which has obviously been one that's been extremely popular in the market.
And maybe we've talked about some of the other themes on here, but we have not talked about this
WISE ETF. The ticker is WISE. I think that's a play on the chips. I actually like it.
I'm a fan of the tickers. I don't want to go too deep into it because I don't know how much other people care about it,
but another good ticker there. Why don't we talk through some generative AI on this one
and your general thoughts in that direction and maybe some of the composure, the composition of
this ETF and maybe some of the choices here because there's a couple of names I know,
but the largest name in the ETF, which is a company called Veritone, V-E-R-I, is not one that
I know too much about.
So I'm excited to hear your thoughts on this theme in general.
Yeah, I mean, I'm very bullish on not just...
So it's the themes generative AI ETF.
And again, a lot of these ETFs evolve over time, but it's not just generative AI.
It's everything that comes along with the implementation of generative AI and what
that means for the future. So when you take a look at the list of the companies, first off,
I'm very bullish on AI. I said this before on the podcast. I don't think we're towards the
tail end of a bubble. If we're building a bubble in AI, so be it. There's still a lot of room to go. We're not at capacity.
We're not ready to burst. And I think there's a lot of noise around that. And actually, right now,
I think it's an interesting time to get in. If you look at some of the big names,
including names that are inside of this portfolio, they've been volatile and their valuations actually
look more attractive today if you believe that the AI bubble has not burst or that we're
not even close to bursting.
And I'm one of those people, right?
So they include all the names that you know, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta's in there, Amazon, right? And Palantir, which has come back quite
nicely since it got knocked off a little bit. But it also has NVIDIA in there, which to me is
priced attractively right now. And no matter how you look at NVIDIA, if you look at what its growth prospects are, what it expects to grow in revenues and earnings, and the massive demand that is there for its high computing chips, you'd have to say that if you liked it three months ago, you've got to love it now.
And there's so much room for that to go.
And they've always had these places where they've got knocked off a little bit and plateaued. That happened last year, even around this time. But then they always bounce
back and investors start to get back in. So that's one that I would think about. Broadcom,
which literally just got walloped, right? When they announced their earnings,
got crushed. And now there's a lot of noise around that. You know, still a very formidable name.
You know, the week before their earnings,
everybody was talking about how that was,
you know, positioned very well to compete with NVIDIA
and that, you know, maybe they were better investment,
better stock, better company in the chip space
and that it was overlooked.
People don't like the earnings.
It gets knocked way back. And then, you know then I think you're getting in at good levels. And then
AMD is in there as well, too. So we've got a lot of great companies. But then, like you said,
you have things like Veritone. You have things like SoundHound that is not in the top 10
holdings, but names that are filling in gaps and nuances within the AI space that you don't hear
about on a regular basis. And that's the idea. The idea is to not try to pick one specific winner,
but to play the actual thematic and the actual sector. And we know that there's going to be
winners and losers. And for the most part in this sector, I don't think the losers will get crushed.
I think that they're just not going to be as high performing as some of the other names.
But you never know as this thing goes on and on.
You'll have to see how that all plays out.
But the point is to be able to look at some of the fastest growing, highest revenue, best earning companies in the space
and play those key companies that are shaping what the generative AI, agentic AI, and ultimately
robotic AI sector is going to look like. We think this captures that very well. The performance of
the fund has been great. We think it's a theme that continues. Like I said, you'll have your ups and downs. There'll
be volatility, but we really, really like it. And we're getting a lot of interest from advisors
who obviously are starting to think about diving back into that space because of some of the
volatility and some of the names that have taken a little bit of a beating.
Yeah, there's some interesting thoughts there. I was taking a little bit of a look into Veritone.
It seems like they, when I'm reading the description of what they do, I kind of get a little bit of reminders of Palantir, a little obviously not as much on the defense side,
but they build and sell cloud-based AI software and services that help organizations analyze,
search, and automate their workflows. So am I kind of right in that direction?
It kind of feels like there's a lot of AI going around,
but they're the type of people trying to make useful the information
out of all that data that you have.
Yeah, and that's what you're going to get inside of this.
So you're going to get various different companies
that are playing differentiated roles within the AI movement
and within the AI build-out.
So it's not just chips.
It's not just defense.
It's not just data.
It's not just robotics.
It's everything.
So, again, we're looking for those companies that are making a meaningful impact in the
AI movement as a whole.
And that's what you're getting when you buy into the ETF. You're getting the entire sector, what we believe is a more pure play on the sector.
And then we're equal weighting it, and then we're rebalancing it on a quarterly basis so that
once a position gets a little bit further along, we'll pull
that back.
And when you see something like a baritone, that means that if it's up at 8% and it's
the top holding in the fund, that just means that it's done better than the others.
But again, we're not trying to pick the winner.
We're trying to give you exposure to the sector.
That makes sense. How many holdings are in this 50 or 25 let me actually i i literally do have the website open
so i could just tell you the answer to it uh 40 interesting yeah i think it's 40 something names
or 40 names where do you find kind of think in portfolio construction and honestly this could be
something for other people who are just thinking in their portfolios or something in there. Where's the balance between the right
amount of diversification and then losing the theme or something? 25 to 50 seems to be a very
common area that a lot of success can happen in. But I'm curious if you have thoughts on the
numbers there, just the number of stocks in it. So we try to do that work up front. So one thing that everybody should know
about us is that we are not an active manager. So we are a passive manager. So we work with an
index provider. This specific index is the Selective Generative Artificial Intelligence
Index. It's run by a Selective, and it's got built-in criteria. I'm sorry, the rebalancing
is actually semi-annually, not quarterly. And so within that index, there is a defined criteria
that we are looking for when it comes to companies. And that's being, that's automatic.
We're not going to go in and override anything. We're not going to say, oh, well, we believe this
to be better or better positioned, so we're going to add weight here or reduce weight there.
We're literally just following the index. And, and so what that does is disciplined and it allows us to not get for out over our skis
in one position again, because you could, you know, when people were saying that, uh,
you know, Broadcom was now, you know, look to be the winner and going into earnings and
you know, look to be the winner and going into earnings and everybody was trying to place their
everybody was trying to place their bets.
bets. If you would have overweighted that position because you, you know, you had a feeling or you
thought or whatever, you know, that's the way that you can kind of get blown up. These, what we're
trying to do is give you the exposure to the theme, to the sector and do that in a way that is going to allow you to capture that growth,
but also manage the risk when certain positions go on a run. So that's what we're doing. And
it seems to have worked pretty well for us overall. Yeah, everything's out there in the public. You
can literally go in and look at how the holdings how they've changed you can look at the the performance of the etfs compare them to
whatever you want and our goal here really is just to put stuff on your guys's radar our radar
our goal is to find people who are doing smart stuff great stuff people like leverage shares
and put them on your radar for you to do your due, do your due deep, do your deep due diligence into.
That took so much to get out there. Wow. And let the, let the proof be in the pudding. So definitely
make sure you guys are using this as the start of your research. And we're going to do this more
often. If you guys have any of our, any of their questions, I would love to answer them. I would
love to honestly, yeah, just send me your questions your way. And I would love to ask them over to Paul, who's a really smart guy. And we're lucky to be having joining us here
a bunch. I do want to talk a little bit about, cause there's kind of a, there's a lot of themes
that you guys have. There is some overlap in between them. And I find that the overlap between
the generative AI space and AI space and defense space to be a very interesting one. Obviously,
AI space and defense space to be a very interesting one. Obviously, you know, I don't want this to be
what the world looks like, but defense is the most important thing, one of the most important things
in an area, a technology that is changing everything is probably going to be absorbed and
pushed forward in that defense space first. I know with like, we were talking earlier about AR, VR
goggles and Microsoft's HoloLens and all that stuff there is going in.
But I'm sure there's a lot more happening underneath the covers there.
I'm curious if you have any thoughts on that kind of intersection between generative AI and defense.
And obviously it's an area that you can't really afford to drop the ball, be late, be wrong, stuff like that.
Yeah, you know, I heard a great interview
on the Joe Rogan podcast with Jensen Wong. And if you guys get a chance, you should listen to it
because he's such a smart guy. And even if it's not about the business, it's about his life,
which is also incredibly interesting how he came to this country, how he became a success.
But one of the things that he talked about is generative AI is changing every single industry, and it's just making everybody better.
He talked a lot about defense and how generative AI is so smart, it's such a higher compute, it can sense things before human beings can actually realize it.
So in every bit of what we're doing from a defense perspective, whether that's drones, whether that's guided missiles or anything like that. AI is going to be able to do that better than we can. And even if it
comes to autonomous driving, there'll be ways that we can do that with airplanes and missile defense,
so on and so forth. And it's not even just about the technology of the munitions and the drones
and the aerospace, but it's also about, you know,
identifying patterns so that you can, you know, be ahead of like intelligence. So like when you
see signs or signals or things happening, like AI is going to be able to interpret what our enemies
are doing way quicker than, you know, any kind of human intelligence could do that.
So in every single place, AI is going to do that.
But what I would caution is, especially in defense, is that you don't take that to an
extent where you start to put technology companies, specific technology companies, into your defense
holdings because they are two different thematics and two different
themes. Sure, AI is going to play a role in helping all of the defense companies
in what they do, but it is a totally separate thematic and it's a totally separate sector.
What we try to do at Themes is create pure plays. So what does that mean? When you look at our defense holdings,
they are defense companies. That's number one. So first and foremost, RTX, GE Aerospace,
Boeing, Airbus Group, Rolls-Royce, Honeywell, Safran SA, Ryan Mittal, Northrop Grumman,
you name it, like L3 Harris, Lockheed Martin. They are defense companies.
They are all using AI and all using technology.
But what we don't have in this portfolio is a true technology company like Palantir.
Does Palantir play a huge role in defense?
And do they have defense contracts and all of that stuff?
Absolutely.
But we put that in the technology space. That's in our artificial intelligence, our generative AI-wise ETF.
But it's not in our NATO defense.
The other thing that you're going to get is it's important to know where the best investment is.
So for us, we named it NATO, N-A-T-O.
Again, it's an index.
It's a passive strategy.
But every single one of the companies that are in our ETF are based in a NATO member
country.
So the United States and European countries that belong to NATO.
Why is that important?
Because all the investment from NATO member countries is going into these companies.
Again, I've mentioned this on the podcast before, but the U.S. leads in aerospace and defense and munitions and drones and technology inside of defense. So all of the
European companies that are upping their allocation, they have to invest in U.S. companies
to get the latest and the greatest. That said, in order for them to be self-sufficient,
they have to build their own industries
with inside their own countries.
And so in order to do that,
they have to start to invest in their own companies.
That's why you hear me say a Rolls Royce,
you hear me say an Airbus,
you hear me say a Ryan Mittal or a Safran SA.
So they're investing in those markets as well.
And what you're seeing is growth across all of these companies inside of the countries. If it's moving back, because we don't walk, or also, the computer system.
And by the way, just that it's better to turn for the car.
Are you there?
Are you there?
I can hear you.
I think I lost you.
Oh, okay, great.
So what I was saying, the returns are stellar, even without the tech.
The. So what I was saying, the returns are stellar, even without the tech.
Sounds like your sound is cutting in and out.
Oh, okay.
Oh, really?
Okay, sorry about that. I'm on my phone on a landline, so I don't know an internet connection, so I'm not sure.
Ooh, well, let's get a confirmation from someone else.
That's what I'm hearing from my side.
Can you guys hear me over here?
Can you hear me?
Yeah, I can hear you. Can you hear me? I can hear both of you. Okay. Can you hear me can you hear me i can hear both of you
okay you hear me is the question yeah i can hear you now all right okay perfect yeah i'm sorry i
had just i was having some technical difficulties so i had to switch off so i'm speaking from the
other account here uh i i did i was going in and out a little bit there but i don't know if it was
my internet or not so it might have it might have been yours in there.
We were talking about the NATO ETF, ticker NATO.
We were talking a lot about there.
A lot of the points I was hearing was around, you know, this is an ETF made specifically of these actual defense name, pure play names in there, as opposed to some of the other software names in there.
And I find it curious that also that that generative etf also would have some defensive exposure to it i wonder how much um that part of
it is is in that exposed to this area of the market which i would imagine isn't uh isn't
really cyclical it's in a you look at a name like palantir palantir is a tech company. But they are a tech company and we want to make sure
that we're keeping them in the tech bucket. And whereas defense, we want to make sure that we're
pure play in defense.
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