Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Talking about Space $NASA | A HUGE GREEN DAY 🟢 | CAN WE TRUST IT?
Recorded: March 31, 2026 Duration: 2:34:34Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Hello, hello.
What is up, everybody?
I hope you're all doing well.
It's a green day in the market, a rare green day in the market,
and we've actually held on to it into the second half of the day.
Nice. So we'll see the vibes today, obviously.
I don't think many people are trusting this,
but my year-to-date return looks a little bit better today than it did yesterday.
And we're continuing into the second half of the day.
So that's nice.
I was deciding, hey, you know, I could use some coffee.
So I was going to make a pot of coffee right here.
First cup of the day for anyone wondering.
So it's not like the 10th, and we're going for a second one.
But, yeah, I hope everyone is doing well.
Mr. Options Mike, how are you doing, sir?
Hey, Evan, I'm good, man.
Yourself? Just your first coffee, bud?
Yeah, I don't really...
Yeah, I mean, I just don't drink. I don't know.
But we're
getting going. I felt like
I needed a little...
getting good stocks on spaces.
The market was green. I was like, you know what?
I'm going to have a cup of coffee.
The market's not green. I've slept quite a bit here.
How are we doing, sir? What are you watching?
Any thoughts here at the start?
This is
this morning, this was not the
setup I wanted. I wanted a red open.
We gapped up and
we pushed.
It doesn't really matter the reason we're pushing.
Whether it's real or not, that's going to be
TBD down the road, right?
But you look at today's bounce and you have to respect the fact that we took back the eight day on the SPY currently and we filled the little gap that was there.
And, you know, we're up quite a bit here and you're getting a very broad participation today.
You have, you know, the financials are participating.
Semis had a strong bounce back type day.
Tech had a strong bounce back day.
I mean, it's just kind of, you know, very broad based rally here today.
Now, how long this lasts for?
Well, you know, that's, you know, who's to say given this market depends what kind of news comes out and goes.
But the market seems to want to at least believe that we are closer to an end uh end of
this and that the straits will be shortly reopened uh whether that's true or not i don't know i think
trump trump seems just wants to be done with this and you know he was threatening today to just walk
away and let everybody else deal with the straits i don't think that's a very viable way for us to
um to do this, right?
To go in and create a problem and just leave it, let the rest of the world figure it out.
But, you know, I'm not the one in charge.
So for me today, I traded all along.
I actually had a nice little day.
Caught Amazon on the gate, caught a couple of trades on NVIDIA, caught Google for a quick trade, trade and then caught the cues on that big pop
during lunch by the way that pop on the lunch about iran saying they want peace just want
guarantees that was an old post uh so just you know we're seeing a lot of that there are people
trying to push the market here that said you have a lot of people that are sitting short there might
be a little bit more squeamish today than they were yesterday here in this market did we take back enough levels for me to say this is over no we didn't but you know we'll
see if we can build on this it is a bullish week and for me if we're going to keep popping here
the 21 day on the spy would be your next area that's all the way up to 659 area so that would
be an interesting level to watch there as we go into the next two days remember markets are closed
on friday although we do get non-farm payroll on friday so you know um futures traders you can uh you can play that
off there outside of that you know i'm kind of impressed here with uh you know nvidia amd's
bounce back apple woke back up and that was the last name i expected to wake back up today
uh you know it got woke up late it's all the way back to the 21 day. And, you know, everything's kind of gotten a nice little
kick save here.
So, we'll see.
yeah, we'll see if there's follow through. Yesterday
we did have a nice green open
and it gave a lot back.
But there was still, when you look at the heat map yesterday,
it wasn't so bad. So,
we can call this two days in a row, day and a half
in a row um and we'll
see if we can continue to get follow through bm and r back at 20 pretty much it's like we
this whole stuff didn't even happen we're just in a therium crash we're back in like january
february maybe tom lee was right about the the crypto bottom larry i did send you an invite if
you want to come up here i always love having your thoughts on the show we'll see obviously
it needs a couple days to follow through before anyone really
trusts this, but at least one
step in the right direction.
At least one step in the right direction.
We'll take anything here at this point, right?
If I'm not wrong, does Nike
report earnings today after the close?
Yeah, 4.15 tonight.
Interesting, yeah. We do got Nike coming up after
the close. That's fun.
You were going to say something there? I see we got Larry up here. Hey, 4.15 tonight. Interesting, yeah. We do got Nike coming up after the close. That's fun. You were going to say something there?
Then I see we got Larry up here.
Hey, Larry.
I got Larry talk.
What's up?
Hello.
How we doing, sir?
I'm good, man.
I'm good.
Yeah, thoughts today?
I mean, obviously, it's what you want to see.
This is the reversion part of oversold.
That's good to see.
So I just posted a chart a little bit ago, probably honestly like two, three minutes ago,
just looking at the S&P 500 and then looking at percent above a 20-day moving average.
20-day is going to be short-term to intermediate term.
It's mainly short-term, but I know a lot of people here trade shorter time frame.
And we were at 14, 12, we were kind of in the high teens, and then we're getting back above 30.
So that's a reversion signal buy signal that I often will utilize.
So from the correction below 30, you don't get involved because oversold, in my opinion,
is not bullish.
The reversion, then getting back above 30, is the bullish part.
So it's a whole, it's, I call it like a hold your nose and buy.
So I use a lot of trend following.
So a lot of trend following techniques are going to have you late to the party, right?
So they're going to have you late to the uptrend, late to the
downtrend. You're going to catch the meat of the move. One thing you can partner with that,
so an uncorrelated return profile is mean reversion or bottom initiation thrust type
signals is another way to look at it. So one of them is, like I said, the percent getting back
above the 20-day moving average. So that's great to see. The other thing I'm watching here, just to give a different outlook, because I think, right,
I think Mike's going to speak to it. A lot of people are going to speak to kind of the
bullish price action today, is I kind of talked a little bit yesterday about running,
doing some new homework. And one of the homework assignments I've been working on is the relationship between energy and S&P 500.
And so I wrote an article Sunday about this.
But essentially, energy, right, so XLE versus SPY, if you look at that ratio over time, that ratio getting doing what it just did is typically very bearish for the market.
What it just did is typically very bearish for the market.
Duh.
Now it's common sense.
So seeing energy also revert today, especially on a relative basis to the S&P 500, is great, in my opinion.
That's something I've really been wanting to see, kind of see that pressure unwind from energy.
The only thing I don't like is oil is holding over 102 a barrel.
I really wish that would come down.
Yeah. Yeah, I can't have everything, right?
But I think this reversion in energy, so if you look at April,
so if you look at XLE versus SPY and you look at April,
this is kind of where we peaked back in April 2024 on a relative ratio chart.
So, right, I think everyone's going to have similar answers because a lot of people up here do good work.
And one of those is going to be need to see follow through.
Okay, so I think follow through is key.
The last thing I'll kind of note is follow through is key, but also is clean risk reward. So if you look at a chart like EQWL,
or you look at a chart like the S&P 500 equal weight, that's a chart I shared yesterday.
And it's at this battleground level where you have the April low AVWAPs, the former pivot high AVWAPs.
Let me pull it up real quick. April low AVWAP, form a high AVWAP in 200 days. So
RSP is the ticker. You can see here we have this breakdown and then we're at this battleground
level where Mike's point is valid. And guess what? Mike saying he doesn't know what's next
is just the truth because none of us do. But in something like RSP, you just have really well-defined risk reward against this 185-ish level.
And so that's how I'm looking maybe if I do play some of this.
Maybe I get involved from a breadth perspective because bounces correlations are going to tend to be one.
I know a lot of people might play it via high beta.
I might play it via breadth but then have leverage on that breadth.
But that's one of the charts I'm looking at because breadth, but then have leverage on that breadth. But that's
one of the charts I'm looking at because I also just think there's less tech risk because the
mag chart, I know Mike brought up the mag chart. The thing I don't like about that is if you look
at, I know he talked about individual names. So we're not disagreeing. I'm just talking about
mags, M-A-G-S, the ETF. We are, this bounce today is putting us, running us right into the former all-time high AVWAPs,
running us right into the April low AVWAPs.
So that to me looks more like a counter trend move, whereas maybe breath can kind of catch its footing first.
So that's kind of how I'm looking at it a little bit.
I have not added anything to my positions today.
I have not added anything to my positions today.
I think maybe by the close I might in something like RSP
or something like I mentioned, like EQWL is another one that I like.
That's the other side of this too.
As I say, that's the beauty.
Not that we're perfect,
but that's the beauty of being cautious for the past several weeks
is I've been raising cash.
So maybe I can nibble a little bit earlier.
If you stayed bullish this whole time, which is fine, like no offense to anyone who does
that.
I get that's a strategy that works over time.
What capital are you deploying?
You're really not, right?
Because you might not have any capital unless you have unlimited money, which shout out
to those people. Hit me up. I'd like to have some of it. So that's kind of how I'm
looking at it, looking for that follow through tomorrow, looking at that energy ratio. I kind
of want to see energy continue to kind of pull back a little bit. And then, yeah, I think you
just have to, if you raise capital and you understand how bottoming strategies work,
capital and you understand how bottoming strategies work, I think you can hold your nose here
and take a swing, right? Set risk parameters, right? Maybe use a trailing stop, use yesterday
lows or use the 10-day closing lows, something along those lines. But that's kind of how I'm
looking at it. Do you have a part of the market you think you'd be looking in for that?
Obviously, we're waiting for confirmation.
We're waiting for the trends for the real stuff in here.
But I wonder if it's oil and gas still kind of being the theme here.
Or we kind of filter in towards some of those beaten up names.
Obviously, even within the MAG-7, there's like the Apples of the Worlds, which are down 10%, and the Microsoft, which were down 25%.
Yeah, so good question.
So for me, it doesn't – I don't use a lot of like I'm going to go towards the most beat up.
I'm just a poker player.
So I'm just looking for the cleanest hands to play.
So I know there was a lot of conversation yesterday around IGV.
So IGV, a large part of that is Microsoft.
So I don't see the cleanest setup right now in Microsoft.
So I do see a much cleaner risk reward scenario.
I guess you have a clean setup here in Microsoft, I guess,
but maybe play it via IGV.
So that's kind of how I look at it.
It's like, where is the clean setup?
Something else might go more,
but then I don't know how to manage risk in it as well as I do in something like IGV. I do think the breakout in energy, I think one of the things with this move that is why people
are talking about you need follow through is because energy was extremely overbought and the
market was pretty oversold, oversold in the short term.
So short term oversold. So this is reversion today. We will see if this is resumption of
underlying really long term trend in a couple of days. That part takes time.
The whole beauty of trend following is you don't get in early. Like today is not buying trend following.
Today is buying a mean reversion or countertrend move.
That's why I said you partner the trend following with a countertrend or a mean reversion strategy to help kind of facilitate that process.
XLB, I know it's boring.
I know I'm one of those guys that talks about boring stuff.
Looks decent.
So materials look decent.
ITA, that's another ETF.
I try not to talk about individual names as much.
ITA is another ETF that looks good.
Let me pull it.
Oh, where is it?
ITA is the defense in space ETF, right?
Aerospace in defense ETF.
Up 4% today.
You have this clean level against 214.
Yesterday you had this fake breakdown,
and then today you have this reversal up.
So something like ITA, Aerospace and Defense,
sitting at that 200-day.
So it never really broke that primary trend.
I like seeing that kind of movement.
Another area that looks like that,
I know I talked about it yesterday,
but this is one of the things that happens
is you have whipsaws in the market. Pharmaceuticals, IHE, if we can see follow
through in pharmaceuticals to the upside. And then semis, right? I know I mentioned yesterday
semis didn't look good. It looked like it was going to break down, but you're seeing a failed
breakdown in something like SMH. So SMH, you have well-defined risk.
IHE, you have well-defined risk.
ITA, you have well-defined risk.
So I don't think of it as in terms of,
I think this area is going to bounce the most.
I personally don't. I look at well-dealt cards and try to play those hands.
Yeah, that does make sense.
That does make sense. Has your time frame shortened at all over the
last couple days and weeks or is that just kind of not your strategy necessarily yeah so once again
like if you're partnering longer term trend following with this this like mean reversion
type trading so the long-term accounts right they can kind of get out of the market or they're still in the market to some degree.
With intermediate-term timeframe trends, I'm not in a lot of things.
And so then the short-term mean reversion is just another strategy on top of that.
So those three are my primary ways I trade my money.
So looking for this mean reversion.
So like this lag breath thrust is one.
So if you guys are curious about this and
want to learn more, I think Ned Davis, I think it's Ned Davis. It might not be, but you can look
up buying the S&P 500 when it's above its 200 day and selling when it's below its 200 day,
and then partnering that with a ZWAG breath thrust because you're partnering with a bottoming type
signal. So it's not that my strategies change.
It's just that one of my strategies,
which is looking for capitulatory
and then follow through from oversold
is active at the moment, right?
Because that's what we're seeing in the market.
Yeah, that makes sense.
I'm just, you know, it's, I don't know.
It's an interesting move in the market today.
It's a nice move in the market,
but a lot of the underlying stuff that everyone's been talking about here
just doesn't feel like they were too much closer to being resolved.
So it feels like we're just in,
maybe we just found a lower end of a short-term range.
Maybe it was a trading low bottom.
Hopefully it was a good long-term low bottom.
We'll see.
But I don't know.
Yeah.
This is where we still need to see more.
But this is one of the bigger thrusts higher that we've had over the last couple weeks.
Do you look at crypto at all, Larry?
Not a ton, actually.
I've made fun of – I accidentally made fun of Bitcoin the other day. I called it butt corn and the community came after me hard. So I was short IBIT against, and you can go short. It was puts. I closed that two weeks.
What was that?
Probably eight days ago, trading days ago.
And so like IBIT, yeah, it looks like crap.
Like Bitcoin, I don't think.
That's not like my type of move yet.
But it's making higher lows.
So it stopped going down.
going down. It hasn't made a new low yet. That's bullish in and of itself. But to your point,
It hasn't made a new low yet.
That's bullish in and of itself.
that's why I don't try to predict the future. I just try to find good risk-reward scenarios.
So then I don't have to worry about whether or not, oh man, I got in something that I didn't
have a good well-defined risk in. When do I get out? Because one of my favorite quotes by Stanley Druckenmiller,
I know people love to quote him, but one of my favorite quotes is, if you know anything about me,
I tend to change my mind every three weeks. And I think for people who really do trade or really
are active, sometimes you are going to change your mind, especially when we're at critical
thresholds or critical points. Like a whipsaw, a whipsaw, the whole point of a whipsaw is it's
going to change your mind because it was a failed breakdown. Well, you don't stay bearish just
because the breakdown failed. You say, oops, right? Look at another chart. Industrials today.
Industrials was an area of the market that was leading. Yes, we got oversold, but it's sitting
right at its 200-day and had kind of a failed breakdown below it yesterday. So do I know if
industrials are going to go back to all-time highs? No. But guess what? I'm only
risking one to two. I'm risking two and a half percent getting long industrials here, right?
And do it incrementally. So you don't have to put all your chips on the table at once, right?
You play this hand. You bet 10 bucks on this hand. Okay, that hand doesn't win. You didn't go all in.
So that incremental positioning can be key, especially if this is a bottom. Okay, then we get three or four updates,
maybe you add another 25%. And then, yeah, so that's just kind of what I'm thinking through.
I do think, I mean, industrials look decent. Like this chart in industrials looks okay.
It just isn't fun buying on one day of strength. It isn't trend following, right? It's
mean reversion or it's bottom picking, which isn't, it's risky. But that's why you just have
to define your risk. Do you take any credence into the, you know, we're still kind of continuing
here throughout the day. Yesterday was obviously a pretty ugly reversal. And Mike, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this one.
But it looks like we might be setting up to close at the highest of days here.
It's better than not.
I don't know.
It's tough to trust anything in this market.
I get that.
But like, hey, we've continued.
We're here at the highest, bud.
Yeah.
What do you think?
You know, we're here at the highest. I mean, again what do you think? We're here at the highs.
I mean, again, this is not a continuation day for me from yesterday.
Yesterday we closed just off of lows near the lows of the day.
Below the previous day is closed.
Today is a gap in a day one, and now we'll see if we can get some continuation off of this.
And it's going to be about the headlines.
I mean, it really is just going to be about the headlines.
But the market was overdue for a bounce.
We got it. It's a very big bounce.
And, you know, we'll see what we get here overnight.
Larry, did he credence into us actually closing the highs of the days?
Does that mean anything?
Yeah, so obviously it's bullish.
But the other thing I would say, too, is yesterday J.C. Peretz kind of pointed this out.
And one of the things he noted
was you had the AD line. So basically, the reason the market was down yesterday is because of the
heavy cap names, right? So like tech and semiconductors were struggling. But underneath
the surface, equal weight S&P 100 looked good. RSP looked okay. And those are kind of finding
their floors. So to some degree,
we have follow through in breath today. So you can look at the IWM Russell 2000,
you have five to one up days. So we have 1500 movers up and we have about 300 movers down.
So five to one up days, great to see. So I think you can kind of look at these things and say,
So I think you can kind of look at these things and say, okay, we are seeing some constructive price action.
But I think it might – tech is the area of the market that kind of got hit pretty hard and is bouncing the most today.
But I'm not owning technology here.
Like technology to me, XLK especially, doesn't – like that's not the area of the market I'm trying – from an XLK perspective, I'm trying to get long here.
Same thing with the mags.
I think those still look the most vulnerable on that intermediate term basis.
But I think we have some of that follow-up.
And like I said, you have reversion in the percent above a 20-day moving average.
That's back above 30.
That signal, that's about 75%.
So three-fourths of the time it's right. But you set a trailing
stop. So then you defined a holding period for it. So bottoming signals suck because they work,
but they suck buying them. So obviously I want to wait for more confirmation from a trend
perspective, but some of these bottom signals are telling me, hold your nose and get involved.
Doc Sniper, and then we got you here.
You excited to have an earnings today after the close of Nike?
Yeah, it's going to be pretty interesting.
They still have a relatively new CEO. It still is a turnaround story. I think that there's going to be a lot of people watching Nike. Obviously, we haven't seen many good results there in the last year, and we've seen a lot of what appears to be failed attempts.
report uh that would be relatively interesting um you know a lot of people say for a new ceo it kind
of takes four quarters for them to really start taking effect and uh you know we're kind of getting
into that past that territory now um but we're going to be watching uh nike earning coming out
at 4 15 today and um i'll get the numbers for you right before it comes out anything else you want
to add anything else you're watching today um yeah there's a couple
of interesting stuff core we've uh had some interesting news today uh did we cover that
at all today nope we haven't covered any news yet really okay yeah so basically core we've
launched a loan facility this is the first time ever we're going to see gpu backed financing
um this is going to pretty much be much be to help mitigate their execution risk because we
know we're already expecting quite a lot from Chlorweave. But Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs,
and JP Morgan are into this deal. So it's going to be pretty large size, it seems like, and got
a pretty solid backing behind this. But it's an $8.5 billion facility, if I'm not mistaken.
Another pretty cool headline that I saw today
is that Amazon signed a deal with Delta. We're looking to see in-flight satellite Wi-Fi with
LEO satellites. This is going to be pretty interesting. And they're looking to start this
off in 2028. So it's not going to be for a little while for this to take effect, but they're going
to immediately kick it off with 500 different aircrafts. And we're also going to see just about a 300 to 500% improvement in the in-flight Wi-Fi,
apparently, from the LEO satellites.
So this is going to be a pretty interesting test for them.
We already know that United has the SpaceX partnership going,
and they're rapidly deploying Starlink connection inside of United flights.
But this is pretty much going to be another contender for that in-flight Wi-Fi service,
watching Amazon with Leo.
So a pretty big partnership there, and that's definitely going to have some competition going on.
We saw pretty much a couple more interesting news coming out in terms of Warren Buffett this morning.
Warren Buffett definitely put a couple of interesting comments out earlier today.
And he's pretty much saying how, you know, in his experience through World War II, through different conflicts, he's just consistently better on America.
A lot of people were really into that interview that we saw this morning on CNBC.
But Warren Buffett doesn't seem to be as concerned.
And it seems like Berkshire
is not really interested in buying stock considering the index funds are down 5% from here.
He basically saying that they do have a lot of cash in the pile and they will be deploying it
if the market tells them to or if they see the right signals, I guess. But not really deploying
any cash just yet from Berkshire. And if we do see it continue to fall, we would see Berkshire
can start to buy up some assets. But that's pretty much everything that I was watching
or main things that are catching my attention today.
It was. The interview this morning was kind of interesting. I don't know. I don't know
the full takeaways from it, but I always enjoy watching Warren Buffett speak.
Some of the stuff was sad.
You could tell he's getting old on things,
but I also feel lucky that I went to the annual shareholder meeting last year.
It seemed to be the last one.
Sorry, quick coffee set.
But yeah, I did think it was interesting were there any quotes from it that
that you enjoyed mr stock sniper yeah there was actually one that i did like i'm gonna pull it
up specifically but i liked when he said he thought he sold apple too early he did say that as well
i'm sure you definitely got a kick out of that one. I'm sure that you definitely wrote that at least once today.
But basically, he said today, the only thing that you had to believe in then, and when he's saying
by then, he's talking about in the 1940s. For anybody who's not familiar with the 1940s and
what was going on with America, we're in the beginning and kickoff of World War II, one of
the largest conflicts that's ever known to man,
or at least especially for America. But basically, he said the only thing that you had to believe in
then is that America would win the war and America will progress as it has ever since 1776.
He said that also throughout his investing time, there's been 14 different presidents,
there's been seven Democrats, seven Republicans. He's seen both inside of conflicts.
And basically, he's just saying that he continues to bet on America throughout a conflict.
And it seems like that's what Berkshire Hathaway is specifically doing.
It does seem like they are sitting on quite a bit of cash right now.
But again, he didn't seem too afraid to deploy cash if we saw the market continue to drop, which is very possible.
But we did see a lot of the Bitcoin-related names kind of catch a little bit of a relief today as well on the other side of things.
When I'm talking about the miners, they were absolutely hammered yesterday, some of them.
Especially Core, we've got a nice little bounce today like we were talking about with uh the previous um announcement about the uh loan partnership but um yeah i'd say that bitcoin names kind of really got
a courtesy relief today and that's one of the other big uh changes from what we saw yesterday
uh like iron cipher bit farms um tara wolf etc um all kind of got a nice little relief
bounce after what we saw looks like budgeting yesterday.
Sounds like you had a very busy day today.
There's a good amount going on.
I'm seeing a story right now that Vlad Tenet tweeted out
that Robinhood Banking crossed over $1.5 billion.
Jeez.
Yeah, but Robinhood Banking crossed over over 1.5 billion in assets there I also saw public put out
an announcement today about new agentic AI coming to their browser AI being able to execute trade
for you we'll see how it goes wasn't that cool yeah that was pretty cool on their end you know
the biggest the toughest thing that's to be for us here tomorrow is
are we going to gap up again and then make tomorrow very difficult?
And that's the hard thing.
Everybody has to kind of think here tonight.
And I'm trying to decide if I want to take some risk overnight because, you know,
I mean, the worry here is you get another big gap up tomorrow
and then you're just sitting there hamstrung, right?
You don't know what to do with it, especially if we get up towards the 21 day in the SPY.
You know, see how we close. But, you know, know just looking around is there some risk we want to take some short small risk here might be worth
consideration
so what do you what do you think I mean you think you're gonna take something
here into the close looking at some spy calls maybe a couple of spy calls just to have something on overnight and what do you
look at when we're in this type of mind process obviously you're not sitting
here like alright we're putting the full port in here so obviously this is a side
thing in here like I'm just curious when that's your mindset like what type of
strikes you're looking at how far we honestly are probably not very far out of
the money probably go out into the April expiration
Maybe maybe five bucks out of the money and just not a full-size either too much risk
So probably if I would normally take ten I might take four or five here
It's fair what's up stock talk
I just don't take the broadcast just saying hello. How are you doing? Um
I'm just similar type of day. It's gonna be it at all say but this time everything is green. That's a little more fun
Um, no, there there is um, there's stuff note. That's notable about today
um, a lot of stocks a lot of stocks bouncing off their No, there is stuff that's notable about today.
A lot of stocks bouncing off their 100 or 200-day or 200-week moving averages,
depending on the stock you're looking at.
More importantly, we are recapturing the 90MA on spot for the first time since the conflict began.
So that's character change.
I mean, look, bias and markets has to
remain fluid there's no such thing as flip-flopping in markets you just watch what you're seeing
today's action you get a recapture of the nine email and spy if you look at the action going into
um the war and for the last entire, we haven't had a single recapture.
Or by recapture, I mean daily close above.
That's what I mean by recapture.
On the 9 EMA, you're getting one today.
Now, I don't know, maybe there's a massive fade here in the last 30 minutes that could
change that.
But barring that, you're going to get that recapture.
So that's step one.
Step two is taking back the 200 day,
which will require a little bit more work. But what you really want to see here is follow through.
I think Mike just mentioned this, but you want to see a gap up tomorrow and you want to see the
gap up hold, ideally close near the highs. That'll give you real perspective on a potential recovery.
Now, the headline we got today was, in my opinion,
actually one of the most meaningful of the conflict.
We've had a lot of bullshit headlines.
And I saw a lot of bad takes on this.
The Iranian president said he wants to end the war.
There's a lot of people on Twitter going, well, he has no power.
Well, that's not the point.
The point is that...
But, Stockparks, that was old news.
That was recirculated.
That wasn't today.
Yeah, I mean...
That's dead.
So it's nothing new.
Yeah, that's what people were saying.
But here's my perspective.
The Iranians have been saying they're not negotiating with us.
Their foreign minister, Agarachi, has been saying that he's been receiving messages through intermediaries.
Which I think is negotiating,
even though he's presenting it as non-negotiating.
But the real question here is,
does someone, anyone,
in the regime want to talk to the United States?
And if they do, I think that's a good sign.
But putting aside all of the like noise of,
of is this headline real?
Is it fake?
Who is it coming from?
What news sources are coming from?
If you put all that aside for a moment,
all that really matters is index structure.
In my opinion.
I mean,
I was going over this in a workshop last night with our members.
with our members, I did like a little bit of a market update.
I did like a little bit of a market update.
If you go back to 2022,
If you go back to 2022,
we stayed tucked underneath the 200-day moving average
for the duration of the correction.
Anyone can do this.
You go pull up your S&P 500 chart.
You go back to 2022.
You see where we lost the 200-day moving average.
And you can see the attempted counter-trend rallies
that got stuffed at the 200-day moving average
throughout the year. You don't need a rocket scientist to figure it out. You don't need
Bollinger Bands. You don't need Fibonacci retracements. You just need the moving averages
because that's what the institutions watch. And if market the entire year, the entire year.
And if we can change that early into a correction,
the likelihood of a correction goes way down, way down.
In fact, I mean, I've been doing this a decent amount of time.
For the last decade, I don't remember any instances where we got a correction
unless the indexes were sustainably below the 200-day moving average. So if that changes
in the next week, and we're not there yet, I want to get ahead of ourselves here, we're not there
yet, I want to emphasize that. But if we recapture the nine today into the close, recapture the 21,
let's say, into the end of the week, recapture the 200, let's say, next week or the week after, you're probably not going to get a further correction.
Now, alternatively, if we rally above the nine today, which it looks like we're going to do and we close, and then we pop into the 200 this week or next week and get rejected, that is a bad sign.
And that means we probably are
getting a further correction. So I think you keep it pretty simple, pretty binary here. And you say,
can we recapture the 200-day moving average on the major indexes within the next few weeks?
If we can do it, fantastic. You could probably start throwing darts. If not, that's where you
re-up those hedges or re-up those shorts at the 200-day. Like, I think it's that simple.
And that's at least what I'm doing or what I will be doing.
So I didn't pick up any shorts today because we are getting a 90-meter recapture.
I was actually waiting for that end of the close to see if we would or wouldn't.
If it looked like we were going to get a close below, I probably would have picked up some shorts.
But because we're getting this move i'm cautiously optimistic now you need follow through so in other words tomorrow
if you get a red day then none of this matters you know then it's not a recapture because if you pop
above a moving average you get rejected the next day that doesn't constitute a recapture so
we're trading what are we trading at spot on spy So we're trading. What are we trading at on SPY here?
We're trading at into the close 650, almost up 3%.
The 9 EMA is sitting at 648.35, right?
I'm sorry.
That's just for dividends.
648.66.
So you closed up 64866 today.
That's the first sign of character change, right?
I mean, go back and look at the market since this war started.
What is the hallmark here?
Rejections at the 9 EMA all the way down.
March 17th, March 10th, March 4th, March 23rd, March 25th, all of them failed attempts to reclaim the 9MA.
Today, you get it. So cautious optimism is warranted here. I don't think you should be
grabbing stocks out the ears just because we get a 9MA recapture. But you want to see follow
through tomorrow, stabilization of some of the leaders, which you got very nice bounces in market leaders today.
And you just hope the news cycle continues to favor a rebound.
But yeah, I think today's action was the first good action
we've seen in a month, a little over a month.
So yeah, I would say there were some notable
things today. I'm not getting ahead of myself. I didn't buy anything today and sell anything today,
but I have enough long exposure on the book already. I'm only about 5% cash. So I have
enough long exposure already to where if this is the bottom, um and if not you know i can adjust and
be flexible for that uh rejection if it does come so we'll see but i i did like the action today and
i think um the fact that we did were able to pop above um the necessary area uh was a good sign
and so that's what i'll call it i'll call today the first sign of character change since the war started.
And now we need follow through to really show some completeness here and to really nip
this in the bud, if you will.
But very, very strong day for the markets today.
Does any part of you, you kind of think about using this
bounce back to maybe grab a hedge or two?
Even as stuff starts to look a little
rosier, obviously. Yeah, like I said,
I mentioned that. I would have done that
if we got rejected at the
90 of May today.
So, if Spy was unable to close about the
90 of May today, I probably would have picked up some shorts, but we
didn't. We pushed through it here into the close, right?
I mean, what has character shown you during this correction?
Character has shown you that you should have expected a fade
in the back half of the day today.
You didn't get that.
You're making new highs, right, into the close.
So, I mean, from a price action perspective, that's character change.
But forget about the price action.
The structure is what matters.
I say this all the time to you guys.
I've said this to you guys for years on these spaces.
Structure, structure, structure, structure.
And in the case of the indexes, moving average structure is, in my opinion, all that matters.
All that matters.
It's never betrayed my guidance in the markets over the years.
Just paying attention to the major moving averages and asking yourself, are you below them or are you above them?
Like, I know it sounds like an oversimplification, but I think you do well in markets by keeping it simple.
I think people who overcomplicate their analysis or who overthink or who add too many indicators, I think those people tend to be chickens with their head cut off and never know what to do.
indicators i think those people tend to be chickens with their head cut off and never know
what to do uh if you just take a very simple approach and say look are we going to get the
moving averages back or not are we going to recapture them or not and the answer today is
is yes the first one has been taken out and now overhead we have a major level overhead at 660.
that's where roughly not not exactly but you roughly have a confluence there
between the 21 EMA, which is sitting at 659.51,
and the 200-day, which is sitting at 662.
So that 659 to 662 zone overheads is hugely important.
If you can knock that out into the end of the week,
optimism is warranted.
If not, if you pop up into that spot at the end of the week or next
week and you get rejected, then you should be pretty pessimistic. So your bias should be informed
by the market, not your emotions, right? Your optimism or caution should be informed by the
market and not by how you feel about the headlines.
Your personal interpretation of the headlines is less relevant than the market's interpretation
of the headlines. And the market tells you if it believes or doesn't believe something
based on those moving average recaptures. Those moving average recaptures, what do they tell you?
When you're recapturing the 90 million, what is that telling you? It's telling you
over a nine-day exponential period, the market is willing to pay an incrementally higher price
for the S&P 500. That's a positive sign. Now, once you take out the 21, that's an even more
positive sign. Once you take out the 200, that's an even more positive sign. So step-by-step,
one step at a time, don't get ahead of yourself. Every time you see green on your screen, don't be
chasing. Every time you see red on your screen, don't be selling. Stay grounded in markets. It's
very, very important to do that. It's part of why I don't sell my high conviction positions,
even when I'm negative on the market. I've been cautious about the market for the last
three or four weeks. I haven't sold my high conviction positions because I know that these types of countertrend rallies are possible, right?
Where everything gaps up five or 6% and then you're locked out.
And so for me, even when I'm cautious, I don't sell my high conviction positions.
I just stay long.
So now on a day like today, that obviously serves me well.
But if the markets turn back around tomorrow, you know, I'm going to see a further drawdown.
And I'm okay with that.
So you have to know your risk tolerance, what you're okay with holding, what your cost bases are.
And beyond that, you have to pay attention to index structure and ask yourself, is the environment favorable or is the environment unfavorable?
Right now, we've been in an unfavorable environment for about a month.
And now the structure is starting to change for the first time in a month.
That's an incrementally positive sign. Incrementally positive. Incrementally positive.
Incrementally positive. You repeat that. I want to keep saying that over and over again.
Guys, he's bullish. We're back.
What pause are we back?
People will be like, he was bearish yesterday.
He's bullish now. Oh my God, flip-flopper.
Your job in markets is to flip-flop.
For anyone in the audience that's confused about this,
your job is to flip-flop.
Your job is to have a fluid bias.
That's how markets work.
Markets go down, then they go up.
They go down sometimes.
They go up sometimes.
The only way you can meet that challenge of volatility is to be a flip-flopper, is to be fluid with your bias.
So you have to do that.
You have to flip-flop.
And I'm not somebody that ever, ever marries my bias.
You know how people say don't marry a stock. I think it's much more
important to not marry a bias in the market ever. When the market's screaming caution to you,
be cautious. When the market is giving you signs of optimism, let it, let it be cautiously optimistic
in those moments, but you need follow through, okay?
So tomorrow you need another green day.
If tomorrow you get a rejection, not a rejection because we're above the nine now,
but if tomorrow you get another sell day, then everything I'm talking about doesn't matter.
The incrementally positive sign gets erased very quickly if you get another sell date tomorrow.
The incrementally positive sign gets erased very quickly if you get another sell day tomorrow.
So nice close, nice bounce, and a lot of important market-leading names.
But we're not out of the woods until we take back the 200-day.
Because again, flip back to 2022, look at the 200-day moving average in 2022.
Any of you can go do that.
Go pull up Webull or Robinhood or IBKR
or whatever broker you're using
or whatever charting platform you're using,
TradingView, TrendSpider, whatever you're using.
Pull it up.
Turn on the 200-day moving average.
Okay?
Scroll back to 2022.
Look at how the market reacted
to the 200-day moving average over the course of that year.
Do you use EMAs or SMAs? Obviously, you use both, but in this scenario.
Okay, so longer-term moving averages, you always use simple. Shorter-term moving averages,
you always use the EMAs. So I use the 9 and 21 EMA and then the 50, 100, 200 SMA.
And I also throw the 20 SMA on there
just for completeness.
But it's like $10 below it,
$12 below it still.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
And if you go back to 22,
what you'll see is,
is that there were counter trend rallies.
In other words,
there were big rallies in 22
that got rejected right there. In fact, the first one popped over the 200 and then fell right
back below. So recapturing the 200-day moving average is not only important in terms of
structure, it's institutionally important. Institutions look at the 200-day moving average.
Charlie Munger looks at the 200-day moving average.
Stanley Druckenmiller looks at the 200-day moving average.
They have said this explicitly many times in many of their interviews.
Okay, so if those guys are looking at the 200-day moving average, you sure as hell should be too.
And when you get a recapture of it, then you can sigh of relief and say, okay, the market is stabilized.
But until then, you know, you take everything with a grain of salt. That's why I'm not still not doing anything.
Even though I like the action today, I'm still didn't buy anything.
Still didn't sell anything. Waiting. I'm waiting. I like to buy stocks when we are in a trend.
We're in a very clear trend. That's when I like to buy stocks when we are in a trend we're in a very clear trend that's when i like
to buy stocks or sell stocks we're not i will say i'm a little it's i was a little surprised
that we that you didn't do a little bit more selling on some of the stocks it's easier to
say in a day like today when we're all ripping on all of them and it looks a little better
um yeah i mean i was surprised too that i didn't do
more selling to be honest but i just really like all my names can i ask you uh what about
so you talk about cost basis advantage you've had most of them for a while there's like one or two
in there that you like synaptics is the one that i keep saying that that uh is on my mind but i
don't know if there's another one in there did how has that been for the last couple days and stuff seven and a half percent today good but where is like the mind that did
like i don't know i mean look in in a bull market in a bull market yeah in a bull market i'm almost
never below my cost basis sometimes when we get a we get chop or we get selling i enter a stock
and then you get market selling.
So that happens.
So I've held them.
I reduced size on both of them a little bit last week
just to lessen the blow,
but I still own both of them.
So yeah, I mean, 14 out of 16 positions of mine,
I'm up on the cost basis.
So I have two red positions.
I can deal with that.
I'm not, it's not making my mind explode or anything.
The weightings aren't big enough for me to be panicking.
So yeah, look, sizing will solve a lot of your problems in life.
Okay.
A lot of you like are panic hands in the market or who freak out when a stock is up or down 5%, you're oversized.
You're just
oversized. That's like, that is the diagnostic solution. I don't know, 90 out of a hundred times.
And I've talked to thousands of retail traders and coached thousands of retail traders over the
last several years in my community on X. And almost always when I talk to people who are
doing poorly in the market or who are getting margin called or who are getting panicked out of a position, it's almost always the answer is they are oversized.
To learn how to weight a position, right?
Understand position distribution.
Understand the idea that when you have stocks that you have a great cost
basis advantage on, you can hold them through volatility. When you don't, you get pushed up
against the wall. But if most of your portfolio is bright green and is up hundreds of percent from
where you bought it, you have the flexibility to be a little bit more lenient with some of your newer positions if you want to be
right but um sizing is very important in your ability to manage positions if you're full ported
in three or four stocks like when those stocks go down 10 or 12 percent you're talking what's the
so we've talked a little what's the lower end of
stocks you tend to have in your portfolio i feel like what 10 to 20 maybe 15 is the the prime range
in there i generally don't i generally don't go below 10 so i'll have generally at least 10.
um there were times last year where i think i had less than that. I have to think. I don't remember.
But, yeah, generally I don't go below 10 positions.
I'll go up to 20.
I mean, I think there was a point last year where I had 22.
Right now I have 16.
Um, so yeah, I stay between the 10 to 20 position range.
So, yeah, I stay between the 10 to 20 position range.
Um, when I, when I start getting above 20 positions, it's just too much to manage.
When I start getting below 10 positions, I feel like I'm too concentrated.
So my sweet spot is really 10 to 20 positions, generally speaking.
When you're going about this, like how does, gonna say top three but i really want to know is
like what are the largest positions normally kind of come in here like do you normally sit in with
like your top three largest holdings making out like 40 percent of your portfolio does it kind of
kind of concentrate towards the biggest large ones no right i mean right now right now i would say let's look my top one two
it's vavi right vavi is my top yeah but my i'm trying to look at my top five so one two three
five so right now my top five are making up about 30 43
Five are making up about 30, 43.
My top five are making up about 60% of the portfolio currently.
Okay.
Is that not normal?
No, that's a little higher than normal.
But that's also because I exercised some options recently.
And that really obscured the weighting because my Amcore size picked up.
My VIAVI size really expanded.
My VIAVI size went from like an 11% or 12% weighting to a 16% or 17% weighting.
So the VIAVI position expanded very dramatically um so yeah and ens
has just always been a big position but those those big three make up like 40 percent boy
we were talking about this yesterday when we talked about electrification and stuff like that
ens feels like the right area coming out of this. Who knows what's going to happen in the next season?
Bro, look how strong that stock has been.
Like, look how strong that stock has been.
Like, it is not...
Like, it got tossed on earnings
and then immediately recovered.
It got sold off on earnings,
immediately recovered,
and it's held up so well.
Like, I love that stock, man.
And the thing about ENS is
it's still so damn cheap. It is so damn cheap.
Like, I'm not selling that thing. Like, you'd have to, you'd have to, like, put a gun to my
head to get me to sell that stock. And the same thing goes with, like, Viavi, even Amcor. Like,
I still like it. Amcor is not as cheap as it was when I bought it in the 20s. It is a little bit
more expensive of a stock now. I probably wouldn't have bought it as with as
much size today as i did back then but i still like that stock too i just think their tailwinds
are so good like they win no matter what they package the chips for broadcom they package the
chips for tsm nvidia apple like they just get all the spillover volume when when chips are hot so
as long as the chip industry remains hot,
that stock will probably remain hot.
Their last quarter I thought was superb.
So when I have stocks that I own,
that I built a thesis on,
and I go through these quarterly results
and they keep proving to me
that they're doing the right things,
I keep them.
And I really think to a degree investing
is that simple like you you own a stock you build or you not first you build a thesis first you
build a thesis you do the research you buy the stock confidently with size and then you monitor
it you know every time they report results you go through the call you go through the balance sheet
you ask yourself the hard questions and you say, look, is the financial situation still solid?
Is the company growing where I want them to grow?
Is the management team saying the right things?
Are they answering the questions effectively from the analysts?
You know, are there metrics headed in the right direction?
Like, for example, are there margins trending in the right direction? Like, for example, are there margins trending in the right direction?
Does it look like they're inflecting the profitability if they're not a profitable company?
If they are a profitable company, does it look like their profitability is stable or accelerating?
These are the types of hard questions, not necessarily hard questions.
Some of them are simple to answer.
But these are the types of questions you ask yourself every quarter when you own something.
Because there's often this misinterpretation of investing, and I recall to this a lot,
where people who were fans of Buffett and these legendary investors think that the game is just about buying at any price,
holding at any price, and just ignoring volatility.
That is not what investing is.
Okay? And that's not what Warren Buffett's style of investing is either. Warren Buffett cares
about how the company is progressing. He does. I promise you that Berkshire Hathaway has teams
that monitor all the quarterly results. They care about that. They want to see that the company is
doing what you expected them to do. Right? And if the company is doing what you expected them to do.
Right?
And if they're not doing what you expected them to do, you have to ask yourself, should I still own it?
You know?
And the same thing goes for sometimes a company's firing on all cylinders.
And they are doing well.
And they are executing.
But maybe the stock has become very, very overpriced.
You also have to have an ability to recognize that.
And an important thing to keep in mind about overpriced equities is just because a stock
goes up a lot, it doesn't mean that it's overpriced.
That's a very, very important thing to understand.
People misinterpret this.
I see this all the time.
I'll see people on Twitter who say, well, you know, the stock's up 200% over the last X amount of time. I can't buy it because
it's up too much. Well, that's not the question. The question is, is it still cheap? You know,
because if you think that way, you'll never catch a stock like Nvidia, for example, which went up
100% in a couple of months and then went up another 100% in another couple of months, then
went up another 100%, then another 100%, then another 100%.
If you had just looked at it in the first three months of the NVIDIA story and said,
well, it went up 100%, I can't buy it, you potentially missed out on a 5,000 or 6,000%
return from there, right?
And so you can't purely look left and just say, well, the stock's up a lot, I don't want to buy it.
You also have to ask yourself, is it still reasonably priced? Is the story still intact? Is it still a buy?
And that's why people get lost in the markets is that they misappropriate what is expensive.
And they also misunderstand how to actually monitor an investment and what you should be
looking at on a quarter to quarter basis and asking yourself the right
questions and saying, you know what, this name is doing great.
They're doing the right things. They are executing the right way.
Yeah.
I want to ask you about a stock before I forget.
Any thoughts on Micron or memory in general?
There is a little story change here.
Maybe some people fear saying less memory might be needed with some new innovations here.
But, I mean, great earnings.
I like the Micron story.
I like the Micron story.
It's pulled out aggressively.
Yeah, I like the story.
I mean, I don't own it, but, yeah, I like the story.
I don't own it, but yeah, I like the story. And I think, look, cyclical stocks are hard because
what traditional logic says is that you should sell cyclical stocks when they're cheap
and you should buy them when they're expensive. And that's going to be counterintuitive to people.
But the reason for that is because cyclical stocks tend to be expensive when they are at the
beginning of a new cycle and they tend to be cheap when they're at the end of a cycle. Now, the tricky
thing with memory is that there has been a secular shift, right? If you look at Micron's revenues
in the last few quarters, they graduated to a new level, right? I mean, if you look at Micron's
previous cyclical revenue streak, it was bubbling around roughly the same numbers for a while.
And then last quarter, they posted $23.8 billion in revenue, which is way more than they have ever posted by a margin, by magnitude, right?
I mean, they were hovering in the $7 to $8 billion revenue range for, you know, the better part of a decade.
And they just posted a massive $20-plus billion revenue quarter
with insane gross margins.
That's a structural shift, right?
That's not so much cyclical as it is structural.
So there has been a structural shift in the demand for memory.
The question always becomes with pricing power is when does pricing power spill over into demand
destruction like for example with nvidia nvidia has not yet seen any demand destruction because
everyone and their mother needs gpus and nvidia is retaining this pricing power 75 gross margins
because everyone wants to buy their product and there's just not enough chips.
There's just simply not enough capacity. And so everything NVIDIA makes gets sold.
That's why NVIDIA is keeping their pricing power. Now, on the flip side, there are other industries
where you might see a choke in supply. In other words, this boom in demand, choke in supply,
choke in supply. In other words, this boom in demand, choke in supply, pricing power goes up,
but there is a point at which the price becomes too high. And that's really where the memory
trade is sitting right now in this sort of tricky spot where, yes, Micron has the ability to raise
prices. Yes, their margins are going up, but there will come a point where people will say,
I'm not paying that for memory. And that's what the market is trying to sense here. In my view,
that's why the stock was down so much post earnings, not just the market correction. I think
it was the fear that eventually memory prices will become demand destructive and prohibitive
for buyers. So you have to walk that tightrope. I mean, it's part of the reason
why I don't have exposure to memory right now
is because I don't know if I can navigate
that tightrope effectively.
I like to be in stocks where I know how to navigate them.
I don't know if I can navigate that tightrope well,
but Micron is cheap by all accounts, okay?
If you think the cycle is gonna continue, it's cheap.
You should own it, okay?
Even though I don't own it,
if you're somebody out there who thinks the memory demand is going to retain intact and that Micron will be able to
sell chips with insane amounts of pricing power, then you should own it because it is cheap. So
that's my perspective on Micron. Stock is cheap, very reasonably priced on a forward basis and a trailing basis.
And if the market recovers, it will go up a lot, in my opinion.
The market recovers, it'll run very well into the next earnings report, I think.
So take that for what it's worth.
But I like the memory thesis. I like the idea that there's been a structural change in the demand for memory.
I think the revenue numbers are proof of that.
You don't go from $7 or $8 billion in revenue to $20 plus billion in revenue just because.
Clearly, there's a demand shift there.
And same thing with Micron's margins, which have soared.
So yes, the Google thing was a little bit of a headwind, but I don't even think that's why the stocks were down.
I think the stocks were down due to perceived demand destruction.
There were a lot of reports that came out about memory prices sort of hitting a ceiling, potentially.
Citibank had a report on it.
JP Morgan had a report on it.
Morgan Stanley had a report on it.
That's what drove those stocks down.
But sell side is often reactive more than they are predictive.
And sometimes they react incorrectly.
So yeah, I like Micron.
I like the memory trade.
I like the thesis, but I just, I'm not involved in that trade currently because I'm not sure
I can navigate the tight rope, like I said, between pricing power and demand destruction. So we'll
see. I feel like, are there any, is there any like second order effects or other stuff in here? I
mean, obviously it's, it creates more costs for other people, but is there anyone other companies
doing it? Like Micron also doesn't seem like the type of, it's too large of a company for you to
be interested in. And Sandisk is a smaller company in the in the space but i don't know i don't know the answer to this
question but i just would with any other part in the semiconductor space there are these people
like amcor who are doing random stuff that i have no idea you know within it so i don't know i i
feel like for memory we also i haven't heard you talk about many of the second order effects.
Or companies, I could think.
There just doesn't seem to be mid-cap companies that you're interested in.
There are some mid-cap companies in memory, but they're all very expensive.
They're not trading like the OEMs, which I think are trading very reasonably priced.
Most of the mid-cap sympathies in memory, I think, are quite expensive by my metrics.
I think the cheapest player in memory is Micron, even though it's a big market cap.
So yeah, there are mid-cap plays.
There are several in the memory supply chain, but none that are super compelling to me at this time. There is one actually that
I might buy, but I won't mention it yet.
Can you give me one that isn't that one that was a little interesting, or one of the ones that maybe
is one of the higher quality ones, but it's expensive?
Not to promote the Discord, but if I do
share them, it'll be there not here
well i was saying the ones you said you won't buy but well i don't know if i don't i don't
i don't know if i won't buy them or not we'll see what the prices we'll see what the prices
look like in the next couple of weeks you know yeah there are some there are some what's the
worst memory company you looked into the worst memory company that i looked into? The worst memory company that I looked into?
Yeah.
Like, in terms of how expensive it is?
I guess we're just going to skip this question,
because I guess you're right.
There isn't that much of an answer into it.
And the question was geared more towards quality of company company but I would imagine that would just be if there's one that you think is going to zero was kind of what I'll say is this
what I'll say is this is that um bonding is you know thermal compression bonding is is a big
segment um in memory that I think is interesting.
And there are a lot of mid-caps in that segment.
And then, obviously, there's a packaging choke point, too,
which I already have Amcor for.
So I already have exposure to the packaging choke point as well.
There are material choke points as well in memory.
There's a material called tantalum, tantalum plates. Some people might be familiar
with, there are stocks that do that. I can give a lot of hints here, but
there are several memory names that are interesting. It's just a matter of
me finding them at the right prices and buying them at the right prices. Because again,
my strategy is hugely dependent on buying at the correct price,
not necessarily buying the right stock
and buying at the right price.
There are a lot of times where I have,
let's say I like three stocks,
stock A, B, and C.
Stock A is very expensive.
Let's say it's the leader in the segment.
Stock B, I don't like as much as stock A,
but it's much,
much more reasonably priced. I almost always prefer to buy stock B. And it serves me well,
because if I buy it at the right price, then I can sit through corrections. Like during this,
whatever, chop correction we've seen, a lot of people got shaken out of a lot of names.
I didn't get shaken out of any of my high conviction names because i own them way lower and that's why cost basis matters because people don't think cost basis matters until you get a correction right when the markets are humming to the upside
everyone's rolling calls dcaing buying more every week yeah it's all gravy when the markets are going up. But when the markets pull back, that strategy begins to fall apart. And your rolled calls go to zero, and your newly
opened positions or newly bought shares ruin your cost basis. And then before you know it,
the position that was bright green in your screen is bright red, and you're down on the equity,
down on the options, and you're bagged. And so I do not
like to put myself in that position. And that's why buying at the right price is so incredibly
important. And that's why I emphasize that a lot, buying at the right price, buying at the right
price, buying at the right price. So yeah, there's a lot of stocks that I like right now in the
universe of stocks, a lot of them, like a lot, a lot.
There are very few out of those that I'm a willing buyer of because of the prices and how much they've run and how based out they are.
And, you know, counterintuitively, I know earlier I said, oh, well, it doesn't matter how much a stock is run.
It matters if it's still reasonably priced.
Yes, that's true. But for me, the best buys I've ever made and the buys that have served me the best, the buys that drove my performance
last year, the buys that are driving my performance this year are the stocks that A, are reasonably
priced, fundamentally speaking, and B, are based out, technically speaking. So I'll repeat that. The best buys are reasonably priced,
fundamentally speaking, B, based out, technically speaking. If you can find a stock like that,
that's been consolidating for months or weeks or preferably even years, okay, and is also
reasonably valued fundamentally and is also ideally thematically relevant.
Those are the blockbuster buys.
Those are the stocks that will drive your portfolio for months or years.
And that's what I focus on doing.
I focus on finding those names.
So it's hard for me to get all three of those factors in confluence.
But when I find them, that's when I sort of get wide-eyed and get really excited, right? So there are stocks like that right now.
I have a long list of stocks to buy that are like that. And yeah, I'll buy them. If the market
stabilize here, recapture the 200-day moving average in the next week or two weeks, I'll buy them. If the market's stabilized here, we recapture the 200-day moving average.
In the next week or two weeks,
I'll buy some of those stocks.
So, yeah, that's the way I think about it.
Are any of them in the space,
is there any interest in that sector still?
Or are we a little ways away?
I have IRDM.
I want to upsize it.
I have the July.
That's what you would add to if you were going to?
Yeah, I think it's the most reasonably priced out of all the space stocks.
Like, you know, you look at most of the space stocks,
they trade crazy valuations.
IRDM trades at a forward PE of about 18.
It trades a price to free cash flow of about 9.5.
Trades an EB over EBITDA of 10.
It's very reasonably priced.
And I think their L-ban spectrum and um in general their gns jamming
their bvl os people who don't know what that is it's beyond a visual line of sight
um it's a control systems for drones um those are really my points of interest there um and
i think that you know no matter what theme you're looking at in the market, space, whatever you're looking at, memory, packaging, whatever like thematic aspect you're looking at, there's always a reasonably priced stock.
of times there's a headwind that's making it reasonably priced and it's your job to figure
out if that headwind is justified or not, right? If that headwind is going to prevent a repricing
or going to prevent multiple expansion. But where you really build cost basis advantage,
in my view, is in intra-quarter rallies, okay? So rallies without a catalyst is really where
you build cost basis advantage. In other words, you buy a stock after it has reported earnings,
and either it didn't react or it has been based out for a while
or it's breaking out of a base on that earnings report,
you can find a smart entry closer to the moving averages as possible,
and you can find fundamental value in it,
thematic relevance in it, and technical setup in it.
If you can find those things, you're going to win more often than not. Simple. I don't want to say markets are easy
because they're not, but they are simple. And when you have criteria like that, I have so much
experience with my stock picking criteria that it's just instinctual now for me. I'll look for
a couple of minutes, I'll flip through the balance sheet.
I'll read a summary about what the company does.
And then within a couple of hours,
I'll know if I'm interested or not.
And then I'll spend a couple of days
doing some deeper research.
And then I'll be like, okay, I'll buy it.
And it doesn't work sometimes, but it usually does.
And the vast majority of the time,
if you can find multiple points of confluence on a name,
you'll probably do pretty well on it.
So yeah, I like a lot of stocks in this market,
but I don't like them at any price.
And that's really the distinguishing factor for me
is that I need the right stock at the right price,
not just the right stock.
We got Nike earnings coming up here in three minutes.
What price would Nike have to be trading at for you to be like, yes, we're going Nike.
I don't touch apparel.
There's a price though.
Nike's five bucks.
We buying?
No, I'm kidding.
Yeah, obviously.
But I mean, no, I don't touch apparel and I don't touch food stocks for a very simple
reason. I'm not able to stocks for a very simple reason.
I'm not able to differentiate competitive advantages in those industries.
I'm sure some people are.
I'm not like aiding on anyone who owns ONON or Nike or Chipotle or Wendy's or any of these types of stocks.
I will never buy any of – I won't buy fast food stocks.
I won't buy QSR. I won't buy QSR.
I won't buy apparel.
And the simple reason is I don't know how to differentiate the products.
Like, sure, they can have cool looking clothes or a new technology for shoes or whatever.
But like, I don't know how to differentiate that from the competition.
Right?
I like competitive advantages.
I like, I either like my stocks that have one of a few things.
They need to be operating at a choke point.
So in other words, some sort of choke point in the supply chain.
I really like that.
A lot of my portfolio is centered around that.
Or they need to have some kind of competitive technological advantage
that will allow them to win and defend market share. Win and defend
market share. The ability to do that, especially if you're a mid-cap, is what finds you these
explosive mid-caps. Like when I bought Huntington Ingalls last year, that was a huge part of the
thesis was that they have a technological and experience advantage, a competitive advantage
versus the competition.
And that stock went from being a mid-cap to a large cap very quickly.
Same thing with Amcor, went from being a mid-cap to a large cap very quickly.
Same thing with ENS, same thing with Nebius, same thing with like pretty much every stock in my portfolio, VIAV.
All of these have some sort of competitive advantage or they operate at a very critical choke, and they're one of very few suppliers in that choke point, okay? So recapping everything I just said, you find a
stock that's either at a choke point or has a competitive technological advantage, has a based
out technical setup, has a reasonable fundamental valuation, okay? And it's thematically relevant.
If you can check all those boxes,
it's really hard to lose.
It's really hard to lose.
If you can check all five of those things and say,
operates at a show point,
technological advantage,
based out technical setup,
reasonable fundamental valuation,
thematically relevant to a sexy theme.
That gives you everything you need.
And if you buy those types of stocks at points
where you can risk off of, and what I mean by that is buying them when they're flat against
the moving averages, if you can buy those stocks at those points, man, it is hard to lose.
It's really hard to lose.
Nike stock. Sorry, Nike stock initial move was down 1%. It's just shifted around now, but they did report earnings.
It's in $11.3 billion.
Flat year over year on revenue.
Wall Street won at $11.2.
So nice little tiny beat there.
The bar isn't super high.
Flat on a reported basis and down 3% on a currency neutral basis.
We could try some other EPS stuff but Nike's stock initial move down 1% I'll let you know
some more numbers there's anything else interesting here good EPS beat for them
what's the EPS expected I see was 28 35 nice all right there we go big dogs yeah I could look for a
little bit more on Nike but stock is down ish 1% I mean it was a good day it
was a good day set up for them to report some good numbers yet EPS was a small
beat medium-sized beat what's up snipe pc any more numbers on nike uh no honestly i'm just
flipping accounts right away because i was about to post the revenue and eps off of yeah i've seen
that income was a beat 520 million while she was expecting 420 million pretty much so nice little
beat there i also saw that open ai raised 120120 billion, something along there, at $850 billion valuation.
That's the biggest raise in Silicon Valley history.
Wow.
Would you have invested in OpenAI?
Here's the actual question I wanted to ask you.
Yeah.
SpaceX is going public.
What's the valuation of SpaceX, you think?
I don't know.
I don't know if you have the chance to actually dig into numbers like you would want to be able to go into it,
but I imagine you're not going to buy into the IPO.
Maybe you would at an $800 billion valuation,
but do you have a valuation in your mind
where you think you would have been more interested in that?
I mean, I don't know.
Too big of a market cap for me probably but 500
billion new buy-in yeah yeah I think it's cut in half yeah well that's like a
third is it women do we even know the price they're floating they want to go
public at 1.75 trillion.
I'm pretty sure.
I mean, I could double check that, but that's the number, right?
I mean, if anyone else wants to fact check me.
I've seen anywhere between 1.5 to 1.75.
But yeah, I mean, we'll see what it ends up being when the filing goes through. But yeah, I mean.
It feels quite ridiculous.
We will see, my friend. We will see. As I always quite ridiculous we will see my friends we will see as i always say we will see i i take markets day by day you know i i take it i take markets softly i don't overreact
or underreact or i don't you know i don't my bias doesn't get tugged back and forth like a slinky
like i don't i don't act like that. I just wait patiently for markets to resolve,
build structure, and then figure it out from there.
But I do think there were some very positive signs
about today's action.
Like I said, first sign of real character change.
It feels like the sell pressure on crypto
has stabilized a little bit,
but we still need better news, right?
Like we still need to actually get to the end of the conflict and not just
hear quotes about wanting to end it.
We need to get towards the end of the conflict.
So I'm looking forward to that and staying patient.
But yes,
today we did recapture the 9 EMA for the first time since the conflict began.
That is character change period end of story.
There's no way to dispute that as long as we don't give it back tomorrow.
If you get a dump tomorrow, then it's a lot of effort for nothing. But today felt like a little
more than short covering, in my view. You got a 3.5% move up in the queues, a nearly 3% move up in the queues a nearly three percent move up in spy you retook 650 you retook
the 90ma um you know one more day like that you'll be back above 660 and that's really the key spot
this cluster at 660 in fact actually this is funny today there's almost perfect confluence
on today's close between the 21 ema and um the 200 day they're three dollars apart
okay so um the 20 sma is actually sitting right on top of the 200 day that's that's 661 77 the 200
days is 662 so if you can break past that band 659 to 662 band, as what I'll call it, you can break past that. That's a great sign.
Now, I'd like it to happen quickly, because if you want a V-shape recovery, that's what you need.
But yeah, you take these things day by day. If your bias gets pulled back and forth like
you're a psychopath every time the markets gap up or gap down, you're not going to make it.
psychopath every time the markets gap up or gap down, you're not going to make it. That's not how
you build performance. And the beautiful thing about this year is I have a 45% cushion on the
year in performance already. So I'm chilling. I'm down to wait. I'm down to wait for this to resolve
itself, the structure to rebuild. And then if I want to add some more exposure, I can. I mean,
I'm not sitting on a tremendous amount of cash. I'm sitting on less than 5% cash,
just waiting and watching, you know,
and I'll raise more cash into weakness if I need to.
This is another thing is people are really scared
to sell into weakness and buy into strength.
I am not.
I am not at all scared of doing that.
You know, I like to follow the trend as often as possible. And when there's
not a convincing trend, I'm willing to degross into weakness. And I'm willing to upsize into
strength. I'm more than willing to do that. A lot of people get scared because they feel like
they're chasing. You're not chasing if you already have a base of exposure, which I always have. Like last year's flash crash, I had, I don't know, 13 positions long. And I held them
through $120 drawdown in the S&P 500. It wasn't fun. It wasn't fun. But on the other end of it,
look at my performance last year, right? My performance last year in April was minus 4% on the year.
I ended up 505%, right?
So I don't measure my level of panic or level of concern about the markets based on a couple of days or a couple of weeks of price action.
I observe market structure
and I observe the structure on my individual names. And I ask myself, how much pain am I
willing to endure on a given position? And if I'm willing to endure a lot of pain, it generally
means I have a very deep cost basis and or I already have a cushion for performance on the
year. In this case, I have both.
I have a performance cushion on the year
and I have very good cost basis
on the vast majority of my positions,
like 14 out of 16 of my positions.
I have very good cost-based advantage.
So I'm willing to wait it out.
Markets want to reverse here.
Markets want to pull off a full reversal here,
gap above the 200-day tomorrow, great.
If they don't and they get rejected tomorrow, I'll pick up some hedges.
It's really that simple.
Logical.
What's up?
We also got Ryan.
I just got a couple other people.
So you want to mute there.
If you guys got any thoughts you want to jump into.
Fair enough.
All right, can you're on mute there. You guys got any thoughts you want to jump into? Fair enough. All right.
Can you hear me?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
I think Stock Talk basically said it right.
Like you have to see, follow through.
Today is a tough day because you basically had quarter end.
So you probably have a lot of window dressing.
You have the collar falling off the JPM collar.
There's just a lot of things to read through.
You don't even know.
We ripped on that headline.
You don't know how legitimate that headline will be
in terms of actually having an impact on, you know, finishing the war up.
So I think, you know, that's not a big deal necessarily. Sorry, hold on. Dude, I'm driving
and someone else reversed into me. So one, you know, that can change very quickly tomorrow
if there's another headline. I don't think we're out of the, like the headline market necessarily.
What I will say that's encouraging though, is that it does feel like a softer language.
The question is, though, a lot of the pushback I get on the headline out of Iran today was,
this president doesn't have a lot of power over the military officials on what will happen in
the conflict. So I don't know necessarily,
you know, how positive it'll be. I'm sure there were a lot of games played today
in terms of funds and, you know, quarter end window dressing. So, you know, obviously a very
good day. I don't think any person on this platform can say that was the bottom with
confidence as of today. i think there's just a
lot of noise and so you'd want to see follow through like i've been very cautious i've been
sitting in cash and i don't feel any sense of fomo because i've learned through prior corrections
that it's just much better to be patient like i think um the stats are like in 2022, if you waited for the S&P to reclaim the 200-day, you basically missed the first 12% of upside, which is huge.
Don't get me wrong.
But you caught the next like 90% of the rally.
So it's not the end of the world if you want to wait for a little bit of confirmation.
Nothing's going to happen.
People are going to think that – I think it's important to know
that you kind of have your own style. What makes sense to you? For me, the most important thing is
not losing money. I think that's so important for me. So I'll get and I'm a swing trader. So
if we get into an uptrend and it just took me a few days of maybe a little bit of green that I
missed out on to confirm that uptrend and that
means that i can have much much longer exposure like i run 140 levered long typically uh when we
are in an uptrend it's not a big deal to me i can make it up with the leverage so yeah i don't feel
anything uh you know if we were if we took another leg lower, would anyone be, you know, would anyone be surprised?
I think that's very much in the cards or it's very possible, I should say.
So, yeah, I just wouldn't listen to anyone who has a big, like, conviction one way or another or high confidence in one way or another.
So, yeah, nice one day.
It's quarter end.
Take it day by day right now.
Obviously, follow through will be great how we
react at the 21 ema is the next level 200 day above that they're right around each other i think
stockhawk mentioned all this already but yeah that's probably gonna be the next kind of resistance
to push through it's not that much higher than where we are today i'd expect that you know i mean
look at all the oversold you know signs, signs, right? RSI oversold.
People are super hedged for the downside.
Like an oversold bounce was expected at a minimum.
So like today, you know, you get a bounce and it's like all these bulls are super like loud about it.
But it's like, dude, we expected a bounce like when, you know, Spy was higher than it is today.
So it's like, you know, yeah, you it is today so it's like you know yeah you got one as you
touch 6 30. i think that was pretty much like the entire way down as i was raising cash it's like
i don't want to short this because we're oversold we're oversold like we can get a counter trend
rally we can get an oversold bounce so you know being short to the downside wasn't the answer
either for me the answer was just sitting cash because i i have no reason not to um so yeah i you know i wasn't sure anything so that's how you
get your face ripped up we were literally on this space yesterday talking about how the biggest up
days happen in um you know downtrends in counter trend rallies so overall um let's just see how
this plays out today's a tricky day uh still a lot of overhead
resistance above we gotta prove that out even if the war ends obviously that'll be good the next
question will be will will be like how will the market interpret this moving forward because
there was distribution in tech prior to um the war conflict so So that's kind of like,
that's why some of it is just like,
dude, you're going to do so many mental gymnastics
trying to figure out what's what.
It's just much easier to see
how is the market as a voting machine feeling.
So if, you know,
market is enthusiastically buying things
and just ripping through,
you know, resistance levels, then that's
a pretty good sign. So I'd rather just wait to see how the market reacts rather than what the actual
headlines are. The headlines are so pointless at this point, like they've lost their value. And so
yeah, I'm just more focused on what's the market's reaction to all of this. And I'll be the first to
be as long as possible
if we turn back to the upside.
I don't understand why people have issues
with switching their bias.
That's exactly what you should be doing.
Why don't we get Mr. Ryan in here as well.
Ryan, a little bit more of an intraday trader
using those prop firms, shout out CodeWolf.
But you got any thoughts you
want to throw into the mix here on what you were seeing today?
I think both Stock Talk and Logical covered it pretty well. And I feel like pretty much
everyone should be on the same page with this. I mean, could this be a local bottom? Could
it be a bottom? I mean, yes, you could, it could be a lot of things, but what you
do know is you had a lot of people net short going into this and you had the first somewhat positive
headline come out of, out of around from their side, at least. Uh, so you had a lot of shorts
that have been comfortably short, uh, for a couple of weeks, if not longer comfortably.
And, um, here they are going, okay, been holding,
been holding, maybe it's time to get out of some of those. And so you just have like the mechanical
effect of a lot of shorts covering. Um, I will add like end of month, end of quarter,
the rebalancing was actually not that impressive today. There was not, um, there was not a lot of
size comparatively to other end of, end of quarters. Um, and there was not a lot of size comparatively to other end of quarters.
And there was not much flowing into like your Big Mag 7 names.
So, I mean, the chart damage is still there.
That hasn't changed.
You had a lot of shorts cover.
You were oversold.
You got a bounce to the 9.
I mean, from a simplistic point, could you go a little bit further?
Yes, you could to really get a back test of what you broke down from.
But I mean, like the Nasdaq didn't even make it back to November's lows today.
The S&P did, closed right at it basically.
But I still think, you know, there's damage done to the charts.
There's damage done to just like the oil side of the economy that people are
still going to have to figure out. Like no one knows until the dust settles what the actual
damage is and how prolonged this is. So it's going to take analysts a while to figure that part out.
But did you get some positive news for some shorts to cover and maybe take some profit, take some of the hedges off the board?
Absolutely.
You heard Stock Talk saying it from a very just straightforward perspective is, yeah, you cover your shorts.
You got a little bit of good news.
Markets are breaking back over a couple of previous days highs.
You get out of your hedges or your shorts.
You take the profit on them.
You've probably been taking some profit on the way down either way. And now you sit and wait, do you get follow through?
And even if you get one more day of follow through or something like that, I think you need more than
that. You need a lot more than that to repair some of these charts. Could we come screaming
back? Yes. But just for the information we have today, you have shorts that covered.
You have the first maybe positive piece
out of the Iranian president.
Who, is he actually in charge?
Is he not?
No one, I guess, really knows.
Maybe somebody knows,
but the general public doesn't seem to actually know.
So I just think there's still a big rain cloud
over a lot of the market here.
But is it a positive sign?
Is it a day to be like, thank God we got some relief?
Absolutely.
But outside of that, I mean, I just go back to the NMOC.
I just keep looking at the quarterly rebalancing.
The number wasn't maybe half of what last quarter's was in the actual breakdown.
NVIDIA actually paired off and went into Southside at one point.
There wasn't any MAG-7 names in that large amount.
I mean, there's been other days where the MOC was larger for a lot of the MAG-7 names
than it was even today on a quarterly rebalance.
So to me, that's a little bit of a tell that a lot of these institutions and the big money
movers, they're not ready to dive back into this yet.
They're looking at these charts going, okay, things are still a little dicey here.
So I think there's more sit and wait ahead.
But I don't want to be just, you know, I don't want to be negative.
It's just a word of caution.
But were we extremely oversold?
You know, did we finally get a nice balance or relieve some short covering?
Yes, we finally got those things.
Now we need to see some continued good news would be great.
I think all of us, no matter where you're at in the political sphere,
I think all of us want maybe some continued good news over there.
Get the straight open, get oil flowing.
Maybe get some type of peace negotiations going.
Whether they're broken or not, at least get some type of diplomacy stuff going here, continue to de-escalate.
And then the markets can try to find some firm ground again and start to assess the
damage that 100 plus barrel oil has done for the last however long, a couple of weeks or
more at this point, and see if that starts finally tapering off.
And then do we finally get that flowing again?
How much damage is done to some of these different GCC states?
You know, a lot of that TBD.
So I don't know.
That's where I'm at.
Like I said, it was interesting watching until we got that headline that everything was up.
until we got that headline that everything was up on the first headline last night, I guess,
with the Trump report that he told AIDS he was fine, basically tuning down the war without the
straight opening. So that kind of started it. But then the president of Iran, his comment today,
the first kind of positive comment from that side, you saw everything was going up until that point.
And at that point, oil finally sold off because, I mean, I was just watching it all morning, even though the market
was up decently, oil was also up. Everything was at high of day. One of those two had to give.
We got a positive headline. That's what gave. That's the mechanical side of things. And we'll
see the rest of this week what happens. I the monthly candle get a little decent little tell on the bottom of it now i guess you could be excited about that
um it's tough to be excited about that but here we are first close under the monthly nine ema
since april of, 12 months straight.
Dude, XBI was up 7.5% today.
Holy shit.
That's insane.
And that whole index, dude,
a sector ETF is up 7.5%. 2X volume.
There were two buyouts today in BioLend.
That's insane.
Yeah. Yeah, Nike, by the way, giving up a lot of its gains.
Nike stock is about down to even on the day.
Done a couple percentage points in after hours.
There was a couple other news stories. Obviously Obviously this was the end of Q1 today.
So when earnings come out, it's going to be as of today for a lot of companies.
When 13Fs come out, when you see what Bill Ackman's portfolio looks like as of the end
of Q1, it will be as of today in a month and a half.
So we're going to see if he was actually buying the dip.
Freddie May and Freddie Mac
obviously had a good day yesterday at 50%.
I don't know what they did today.
What did they do today? I'll look in a second.
But OpenAI, like I said, closed
their funding round, $122 billion
at an $850 billion
valuation.
There was a story around
Oracle doing layoffs. Oracle,
I saw someone say like 30 000 i don't
know i just saw thousands coming out of credible news sources um oracle doing some layoffs there
i saw wells fargo lowering their uh year-end s&p 500 price target stock talk are you even
reading analyst reports at this time obviously not this. You never enjoyed the year-end price targets, but any?
Yeah, I posted like five or six of them in the Discord a couple days ago.
There are some better ones coming out now, now that prices have come down.
When prices come down, then analysts see some opportunity.
So there have been some good ones lately.
Nothing I've acted on, but there have been some good ones lately. Nothing I've acted on, but
there have been some decent ones. I've been sharing
several in the community over
the last couple
of days, but
yeah, that's
kind of how it works with analysts. Like, when there's,
when stocks are flying high
and everything's up,
it's tough for analysts to get an edge.
You know?
And when they're not, and when they're showing some signs of pulling back,
then analysts can come out and say, you know what?
I like this, or I don't like this, and I like this pullback,
I like this pullback and I'm raising my price target.
and I'm raising my price target.
So you've seen a lot of that, and that's a good sign.
And that's a good sign.
That's, I mean, you can't hate on that because you want to see, like, look, there's a lot
of catalysts in the market, PRs, et cetera, things that happen that can drive interest
in a stock.
But one of the things that always exists in the market, one of the most recurring catalysts
is analyst upgrades and downgrades. You know, whatever you think of the sell side, they move stocks. They do. And their opinions
move stocks. And so when all of them are kind of sitting on the sidelines and reiterating opinions
and not really finding new ground to be optimistic about, that's something you want to be cautious
of. And for the last several months, analysts have been very, very cautious because they don't
want to reiterate opinions on stuff that's gone up hundreds of percent. So instead, they're looking
for the stocks that are underperforming, you know, pounding the table on them, saying,
we still like this, yada, yada, yada. But now, now that you've seen a pretty material pullback in a lot of market-leading names,
those analysts are willing to come out and say, you know what, we still like this,
or we like it more now, now that it's gone down.
So you are seeing some of that, and I think that's a good sign.
So yeah, I think analyst reports have been a little bit more interesting lately.
We'll see if anything really jumps off the page to me um but yeah there were a lot of them are actually small
cap reports that are coming out um in the last couple of weeks that i've liked so i am doing
some reading i'm doing i'm always researching like during the day i'm not a day trader right
so my days are spent like reading about stocks, reading about themes, reading about developments and industry.
That's what I spend my days doing. Right. Like your average day trader is just staring at their screens, waiting for the next chart set up.
That's not what I do. I sit around and research and read and try to build a knowledge base so that when it comes time to stock pick, I'm ready to do that.
Right. So that's kind of my MO.
And that's what I've been doing.
You know, I'm kind of actually reading way more than normal
because of my lack of activity.
I have time to do that.
But yeah, that's what I've been doing.
Anything standing out in a couple days uh that were interesting from them any more any of the
stocks or anything i've seen you shared them out a week ago you didn't take any of them
but i don't know were there any stories there that were more made to think specific ones um
no not really i think the commentary on memory was interesting but i don't think i agree with
wall street on that um i think they're being a little what do they say cyclical yeah i think
they're being a little pessimistic memory is cyclical but you have to recognize a structural
change when you see it um and i think there is a structural change in memory markets. Like I've traded semiconductor stocks for, man, I mean, it was my favorite sector 11
years ago, 11 years ago.
Wow.
It's crazy to say that.
Um, I've been trading semiconductor stocks for a fucking really long time.
Like, and, and I feel like I'm pretty good at understanding the industry.
I understand the cyclicality the industry. I understand the
cyclicality of it. I understand the supply chains very well. I understand all of the different,
um, components that are required to make different types of chips. And so that gives me, I don't want
to say an edge because it's not a real edge, but it gives me the ability to have perspective when
there are other opinions on the table. And right now we're in an environment where there's a lot
of opinions on semiconductors
because of how much they've run.
I think they have more room to run.
Putting the SMH technical structure aside for a moment,
just from a fundamental perspective,
I think there's a lot of supply chain semiconductor names,
which is really where I operate
because those are the mid caps.
There's a lot of supply chain semiconductor names that I think are still very attractive.
And I think their forward returns in the next four or five years will be excellent.
So I want to expand my semiconductor basket.
You know, I used to own P-Lab.
I got out of it after a massive earnings gap up.
You know, I have to sell something.
I can't hold everything forever.
But I still have Amcor.
And so I want to layer Amcor with another name.
There's three names right now that I'm watching like a hawk.
I'm actually looking at one of them right now at the close.
It's a nice close.
And so I'll pick up one of those at some point.
Not maybe.
I will pick up one of those at some point.
The question is when.
And so we'll see.
But semiconductor stocks have been very good
to me for the most part. I think my win rate on semiconductors is higher than any other category.
I have something like a 75% win rate on semiconductors. So I don't really value win
rate. I don't think it's a meaningful statistic. I've had years where, like last year with a 505% return,
like I had like a 64% win rate. You don't need to have a 70% or 80% win rate to do really well in the markets.
You just need to have conviction and size appropriately on the stocks
that you're higher conviction on and be willing to hold them through volatility.
I think the hallmark of the last five years in this market is,
can you sit through volatility?
Period.
That's what's distinguished super performers from not-so-super performers from average performers from underperformers is can you sit through volatility?
Can you do it?
Do you have the stomach for it?
And also, do you have the confidence for it?
And that confidence comes
from conviction, which comes from research, right? So the more you read, the more you know, the more
you understand, the more you're able to be dismissive when you think the market is wrong.
You know, it's hard to say, like when a stock is selling in your face, it's hard to say the market
is wrong if you don't know the story, if you don't truly understand the importance of the stock.
I mean, at that point, you become a hostage to price action, right?
And I can't count the number of times I've seen a breakdown, and not just this year, in any of the last five, six, seven, eight, nine years.
this year in any of the last five, six, seven, eight, nine years, I can't count the amount of
times I've seen a breakdown on a chart that looks really bad. And then you get a massive gap up that
instantly repairs the charts. And then the stock is back to being a market leader within a matter
of a week. Sometimes, sometimes within a matter of two weeks, sometimes within a matter of two days,
frankly. So that's why conviction matters in markets. Because even if you're the best chart reader in the world,
and I'm not a very nuanced technical analyst.
I don't use a variety of indicators.
I have volume and moving averages on my chart.
That's it.
But I do think I'm good at reading charts because I've done it for so long.
But it's an instinct thing for me.
I see stocks breaking down that I own sometimes,
and I just refuse to sell because there's a bigger thesis that I'm looking forward to.
And to me, the day-to-day price action, week-to-week price action
becomes noise when you're thinking about stocks that way.
So yeah, I mean, look, markets are not easy, but they are simple. And, you know, if you,
the more you complicate your process, I think the more confused you'll be. And the more you
overthink things, you know, one thing I saw a lot during this war, it was a lot of people fucking
typing paragraphs, trying to explain what they think about, you know, the conflict and what
might happen and this, this, and that, like, that's such a waste of time. Like, to me, it's actually
so egotistical to do that. Like, you think you're smarter than the market? You're not,
you're not, whoever you are. I'm not talking to anyone in specific, but whoever you are out there,
when these types of things happen and you're sitting around, well, this is my opinion and
this is what I think is going to happen. Like what? Who cares? Like no one is an expert
in everything the way the market is. The market is an expert in everything because it is the combined opinion of millions of participants. That's what price is. Price is the combined opinion of millions of participants. The way you should think about price is this. Imagine every participant in the market putting a little vote on a ping pong ball and dropping it into a funnel. Okay. And the ping pong ball that comes out of the bottom of the funnel, that's price. That's the analogy that I use for price. That's how you should think about
price. Price is, is not just a number on a screen. It is an expression of the opinion of millions of
participants. That's why it matters. That's why I get so irritated and annoyed when a lot of these
fundamental guys, and I'm a fundamental guy too. I look at the balance sheet of every stock I buy, I look at the valuation of every stock I buy,
I'm not dismissing fundamentals, but a lot of these fundamental only guys will say, well,
the chart doesn't matter. It's astrology. It's this, it's that, who cares? Squiggly lines.
No, that's not what it is. The price is a dictation to you of what the market thinks
about the asset at a given time. And the market's not always right.
Markets are not efficient. I'm not a believer in the efficient market hypothesis. I think there's
plenty of alpha to be captured through the inefficiencies of the market. But you have to
respect price and you have to acknowledge it. And the only way you can ever say price is wrong here is by knowing, is through knowledge. That's what informs your ability to
counteract the market's bias, to say, no, I know the stock's getting sold hand over fist,
but it's a buy here. You can't say that unless you know, right? Or you know something. And so
I think a lot of people who get stressed out in markets, like, dude, I don't, my cortisol never spikes in markets. I've taken multi-million dollar drawdowns in my portfolio and I don't get gray hairs.
of just understanding that that's a part of the game, right?
If you want to be a player in this game,
which I think is the greatest game on earth,
if you want to play this game,
you have to be willing to get punched in the stomach sometimes.
And you have to be okay with it.
You know, especially for a style like mine,
where I'm not a guy that goes from all cash
to all deployed to all cash,
or I'm not a guy that goes from,
I love this stock, I'm buying it, I'm selling it. I'm buying it back. I don't do that. I
concentrate my exposures, find out what I like, buy it and hold it. And so for a guy like me,
if I can't sit through that, I have no hope, right? I'm going to constantly, oh, I'm out.
I can't do that. And with my style and everyone's style is different. With my style, it's impossible. So, you know, I just, I don't get stress. I don't get gray hairs. You know, when the market's not working, I just sit on my hands and observe.
kind of bliss in the markets where you can operate like that. The only way to do it is
experience and knowledge. That's it. Those are the only two ways. You could sit around all day
and take classes on psychology or, you know, there's a lot of these coaches nowadays for
traders who are like coaching poker players and golfers and traders and trying to teach psychology.
You can take as many of those courses as you want. It doesn't matter. That's not what's going to
fix your psychology and markets. It's experience and knowledge that will.
It's having been through corrections and saying, okay, I've seen this before. Yeah, I'm down, but
I'll figure it out. I'll figure out how to manage it. I mean, even last year in April,
in the flash crash, I was holding, like I said, several positions long.
I was in a multi seven-figure drawdown in the April flash crash last year.
And within three weeks, I was back up seven figures.
Like, if you have the conviction to sit through those things, you'll be rewarded on the other end of them, period.
Markets almost always go back up eventually. Even if you have a year like 22, where everything gets brutalized, everything gets pulled to the
bottom of the barrel. If your cost base is good enough, you can even hold through those moments.
There were stocks I held in 22 that even with 50, 60% drawdowns, I was still green on.
And on the other end of that, in 23, 24, 25, many of those stocks doubled,
tripled, quadrupled. Most of them actually tripled or quadrupled, but many of them went up a lot is
my point. And so yeah, that's how I operate. And there are different styles out there. I think
most people on Twitter are traders, I would imagine, from what I see on my feed. Most people on Twitter are traders, I would imagine, from what I see on my feed. You know, most people are just looking for the next setup or the next scalp or the next pop.
I don't operate like that in markets.
I want to capture meaningful performance over long periods of time, right?
I mean, my one-year performance, even after this drawdown, is sitting at something like 650%.
even after this drawdown is sitting at something like 650%.
You know, my three-year performance is like,
I don't know, 1,700% or something insane like that.
Like, I just am not stressed.
You know, you could pull this market down.
You could pull SPY down to 500 and it wouldn't bother me.
I'd just have a lot more targets to buy.
That's really the only thing that would change.
My list would get longer.. My list would get longer.
My buy list would get longer.
So, yeah, I don't know.
If you want to operate in the markets,
like I wake up every morning pretty happy,
whether the market's up or down.
I go, I walk my dog, I go work out.
out, I, you know, go to the mall, go, you know, play some basketball, whatever. I mean, it's not
I go to the mall, go play some basketball, whatever.
a, it's not an environment where I'm ever feel like I'm in over my head. And if you want to get
to that point, you have to understand what's my strategy. You have to know every stock you own,
like the back of your hand, you have to understand the relative valuations. You have to know how low it could really go. What are the circumstances that can make it go lower?
What are the circumstances that can make it go higher, et cetera, et cetera. Once you know all
those things, it just becomes a lot easier. I'm never off balance. I'm never freaking out. I've
done dozens of streams and workshops for our community.
I don't think anyone in there out of the thousands of members that we have would say that I ever look stressed or ever sound stressed.
I'm just not.
And that's through market crashes, corrections, pullbacks, whatever.
whatever. I'm just like always even keel because I know what I own. And to the extent that there
I'm just like always even keel because I know what I own.
are lower conviction positions in my portfolio, I degross them into weakness. And then when the
market picks back up, I re-up them into strength. And then when the market chops around, I sit on
my hands. When the market's uptrending, I throw a lot of darts like it's pretty simple so yeah i don't know it's i'm not trying to
like you know stunt on the new traders who like feel stressed all the time but you're stressed
because you're making errors that's the truth it's a hard truth but it's the truth you're stressed
because you're sized inappropriately or you're stressed because you let your chain get yanked by day-to-day price action. You let
your bias get yanked by day-to-day price action. If you keep a relatively fluid bias, cool head,
you're willing to change your mind. That's very, very important. You have to be willing to change
your mind. You have to be willing to have a fluid bias. But if you keep those things in mind,
you'll be all right. You'll be just fine. And when you start doing things like oversizing,
overleveraging, 55% of your portfolio in one position, 60% of your portfolio in one position, you know, 60 percent of your portfolio in short-term
call options. You know, you're buying zero DT weeklies, praying for the market to rip into
the end of the week. When you start doing shit like that, yeah, it's pretty easy to get stressed.
But that's not how you make money. My opinion, that's not how you make money. You can make some
money doing that, but that's not how you consistently make money if you want to make a lot of money over a lot of years just find some good stocks really really understand them buy them
hold them and then when new themes emerge do the work you know i'm not an expert on photonics or on
semiconductor supply chain or on um semiconductor packaging or on industrial-grade batteries
or on shipbuilding.
I'm not an expert on any of these things,
but I made myself knowledgeable enough
to pick stocks in those sectors.
And I picked the best ones.
Not because I didn't get a degree in any of those things.
I just sat down and learned.
And then when I learned what was going on,
every LLM can teach you this.
When you learn what's going on,
then you can go pick the stocks.
And you'd be like, oh, you know what?
Oh, I saw that.
I saw that packaging was a choke point for these guys.
I read these articles.
Oh, okay.
Who does the packaging for them?
Oh, okay.
How many other customers do they have? What's their for growth what does their capex look like and what does their debt burden look like but when you start asking those questions
boom boom boom boom boom you figure out whether it's for you or not and then you move on from there
so yeah
What's up, Yuri?
How you doing, sir?
Hi, everybody.
I appreciate you for joining us up here, hanging out.
I know we're here at some of that.
We'll get into the next topic here in a second, but just saying hello.
We appreciate you for joining in.
I don't know if there's anything just as you've heard part of the conversation here.
I apologize. I saw you're heard part of the conversation here. I apologize.
I saw you're maybe requesting there for a little.
Just anything on the market today.
Obviously, we're in a very interesting place.
It was a nice bounce back day, but interesting times, interesting place.
I don't know if there's anything standing out to you.
Like I said, we're going to talk a little space here in a second, and I'm excited for
that conversation.
You guys had a good launch today.
But yeah, just anything before we get started. Like I said, we're going to talk a little space here in a second, and I'm excited for that conversation. You guys had a good launch today.
But yeah, just anything before we get started.
Yeah, I mean, look, I totally agree with the previous speaker.
We try not to predict things at the market level. I think that's a fool's game because it's very difficult to do that.
game because it's very difficult to do that. But in any market environment, you can find
stocks that are going to go up and things are going to work out for you in terms of
trades and ideas. And it's just important to have that kind of common sense approach.
You know, I've been doing this for 15 plus years in a professional format and been through
everything you can imagine in terms of macro environments, in terms of
geopolitics, and you can always pick stocks and it works. And I think that's the thing to stick to
and to stick to the things that you know, trying to predict these geopolitical crises is really
difficult. So generally, our approach has been to talk to the companies, to look at what's going on on the ground, and just to rebuild and make sure we have conviction in the positions that we hold.
And I think that's a really sound approach in this market.
Yeah, no, I am curious.
We'll talk more as we go into it.
I am just a little curious about like,
how often do you need to be kind of looking into,
to relooking into stuff?
How often do you,
do you guys kind of scrutinize everything that you guys are seeing from
these companies and stuff?
Is it obviously a day to day,
they come up with a big investor conference.
They were looking at that specifically,
but for you guys in your thought process,
is this like a weekly,
monthly, quarterly type of thing? I think it's really important to sort of distinguish every
piece of news flow. And I think you have to watch most of the news flow for the positions you hold.
In all of our ETFs, we're holding quite concentrated portfolios, right? We have
conviction in the positions. And so when you have concentrated portfolios, you've got to be watching the news flow. But the first kind of triage point for all
of us is, is this really changing my thesis, this news flow, or is it just noise? And we spend a lot
of time just making that kind of decision. So things like investor days, things like earnings,
you know, they are important, investor days in particular. So you've got to look at those and you're going to make a decision with each piece of
new flow.
I think the more difficult ones are, you know, if something bad happens and there's an event,
you know, let's say it's an account investigation or there's a management leaving.
I think those are the tough ones because, you know, history tells you the pattern that
those are important to analyze but sometimes
they can just be noise as well and so I think a lot of this also comes from pattern recognition
and experience so all of our portfolio managers and myself included will just triage every piece
of news flow but you do really have to watch every piece and these days the markets I think
it's important to have your conviction and do your underlying work, but the markets move very, very quickly on things.
And so you're probably not going to beat them at that game, but you need to stay ahead in
terms of whether it's changing your thesis or not.
That's why that bit of analysis is so important.
I am excited for this conversation we have coming up here.
For anyone who doesn't know, Yuri is the Chief Investment Officer over at Temma ETFs.
They had a very interesting launch today, which we're going to talk about here.
And I want to be able to talk about a little more ticker specific stuff.
So I want to read out a little bit of disclosure.
Obviously our goal with all of these ETFs and all these conversations and everyone that
we have coming on here is to help educate people, put the new stuff that is coming out here on your radar so you guys can do your research.
Obviously, we're in a very volatile and interesting market right now. So today was a green day. I'm
even looking at the ETF, which we're about to talk about here, is up another 7% in after hours. So
listen, I'm not telling you when, but maybe you guys want to start your research into it. But
as you guys are doing your research, investors should carefully consider a fund's investment
objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing.
A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about
the TEMA ETFs.
To obtain a fund's prospectus and key information documents, visit their website at TEMAETFs.com.
TEMAETFs.com. T-E-M at tema ETFs.com tema ETFs.com T E M A ETFs.com
funds prospectus and key information documents should be read carefully before investing.
We are excited to be working with the tema ETFs team. And the new ETF that you guys launched today
was the NASA ETF N A S A. I'm a sucker for a, for a good ticker here. I don't know how much
other people go in and care about it. It's SEO. It's, it's the goodA. I'm a sucker for a good ticker here. I don't know how much other people go in and care
about it. It's SEO. It's the good marketing. I'm a marketing guy. But N-A-S-A is the ticker.
You guys have some SpaceX in here, which I know a lot of people will be interested in here,
but this is a Space Innovators ETF. I would love to hear more. We were just kind of talking about
themes and stuff. You're interesting. Why the space theme is one that you're interested in here.
I'm sure all the questions you're getting are around the SpaceX thing.
So I do want to ask more and talk more about that.
But just in general, starting off here,
why is space an area of interest for you guys from an investment standpoint?
Why do you think that this industry is ready to expand? Obviously, everyone loves the idea of space, but why is now the time? Yeah, look, I think
there's a couple of reasons why we decided to do this. And I think Tema's very thoughtful in this
kind of approach at picking interesting themes and trying to find the right point of inflection in
the theme. So I think the most important bits of analysis
that we did was assessing whether there's this
sort of point of inflection
in the fundamentals of the space economy.
And I think for us, that was really around launch costs
and the success that SpaceX has had,
really bringing those down.
We're talking about, we're able to launch now
into low earth orbit at about a couple of thousand dollars per kilo.
And I think that's an enormous improvement from really stagnation that we had for two decades.
And what we've seen with other kinds of themes and areas in the market is when you have this inflection point and a company like SpaceX pushing things forward, you start to see things materialize and it opens up
opportunities. Started obviously with Starlink and lower Earth orbit satellite constellations and the
idea of broadband kind of anywhere, but it's going to enable a lot of things. And you can listen to
people like Elon and talk about what those things are, whether they're data centers in space or
manufacturing proteins or semiconductors in space. But these things are going to look like a reality in the next
five years because of this immense change in launch costs. I mean, they're down 90%
over the last 15, 20 years, largely thanks to SpaceX. And we really like those kinds
of inflection points. They mean you're going to unlock a lot of economic value.
I think the second thing that we really like about is the investable universe
has grown over the last couple of years. Often, you know, with some of these
themes, they might seem really interesting and attractive, but there's just not
that many companies to invest in. And especially building an ETF, when you
want to look for quality, decent businesses to include in it, which is what
we tried to do, you get stuck a bit and then you have to cut corners and you don't get the pure kind of exposure.
And what we've seen over the last couple of years is a kind of vibrant universe of interesting
companies, especially what we've got in our ETF is some of the key suppliers into people
like SpaceX that just competitive ETFs don't have.
And I think that is the thing that got us excited, that we're going to find quality
businesses, a good investable universe, and this inflection point in terms of launch costs enabling new things
and just this explosion in the space economy that combined together it gave us the conviction a
couple of months ago to file for the ctf and really excited to launch it today
yeah and there is a tweet pinned up in the nest above.
It has the top 10 largest holdings. The first thing people are going to notice is that SpaceX is the largest holding on here.
Can you tell me more about how we are exposed or how you guys are exposed to that in this one?
It says SpaceX SPV exposure on the website I'm looking at here.
here, but can you tell me more about this one?
But can you tell me more about this one?
I'm seeing it also started out at 10% of the NAV.
I'm seeing it also started out at 10% of the NAV.
Obviously it's very different to acquire the new shares
of like AST Space Mobile,
which is the second largest holding versus the SpaceX.
So yeah, can you tell me more about just the mechanics
of the SpaceX exposure here?
Yeah, absolutely.
When we set up kind of thinking about
we're gonna build a space innovators ETF, we're going to focus on the space economy.
Obviously, your mind gravitas to building the best possible exposure to that. Right.
And SpaceX is a generational company in the space economy, and it would seem completely wrong not to include it as a business.
would seem completely wrong not to include it as a business.
And it felt worth the effort to go and source these shares in the private market through
secondary transactions.
To us, when we looked at this and we thought launching a space ETF without SpaceX in it
felt like launching a semiconductor ETF without Nvidia.
It just felt out of place. You weren't getting that purity of exposure that you wanted to that.
And so we went to all of the effort.
And I think a lot of people want exposure to SpaceX,
but it's a bit of a fraught path, right?
You have to be very professional about it.
Sourcing these shares in the secondary market has a lot of pitfalls.
And as an institutional manager, we made sure that we covered has a lot of pitfalls. And as an institutional manager,
we made sure that we covered a lot of those pitfalls and read all the documentation. And
so we've included private holding, as you correctly pointed out, it's 10% of the fund
to begin with. We have a stream, a source of acquiring more of these shares if we have to,
as inflows come in. And it is in the private market through an SPV and that means that
we own the shares although we own them through a special purpose vehicle in which we own shares
we've acquired it through forge and some of you have heard part of schwab that is a second-digit
market for transacting in private shares look this is going to be a short-lived thing, right? Because SpaceX has moved to IPO in June.
So, you know, we might get the S1 filing probably confidentially,
but at some point in the next couple of weeks,
and this IPO will get kicked off.
And at that point, it'll list,
we'll be locked up in our private shares.
But I think over that period, you'll get this liquid holding.
And so we felt that it was worth going to this effort
to give investors that exposure
because it just felt like the wrong ETF
without SpaceX in it.
So that was the motivation for it
and the mechanism of acquiring those shares.
What valuation were the shares acquired at?
Is that public on here?
And how does it change with the valuation of the
shares? Is there some floated market or is it just what the last previous raise was at?
Exactly. So basically, for people who are familiar, Elon merged SpaceX together with XAI.
XAI, I think at the time, was valued about $ 250 billion. And then they valued the whole transaction, raised a bit more money at about $1.25 trillion valuation.
So in the secondary market, you're acquiring shares at a premium to that, slight premium.
And the mooted IPO price obviously is about $1.75 trillion, which is what people are talking about.
We'll have to see if that materializes.
But to get transactions off,
there's a reasonable amount of demand. And so you're paying a premium to that valuation price.
So what was your second question? No, it was around valuation and it was around,
yeah, it was around the valuation you guys were able to get in there at.
Yeah, exactly. So we're getting at a premium to the previous round.
And then in terms of valuing the stake, it's private companies.
And you're valuing it at previous transactions.
So essentially, wherever transactions happen, you're valuing it at that.
But the transactions usually are done by us, if that makes sense.
Yeah, no, that does make sense.
And is this something that you can get more? Are we
targeting to keep it at 10% of exposure here? Or is the amount of SpaceX shares that you guys have
more fixed in here? And as the fund grows, you know, you could expect the space exposure to
maybe come down until obviously the IPO and maybe that changes. Yeah, look, we, you know,
the funds off to a good start
in terms of interest, which is great to see.
And it's going to be up to us
as an institutional manager to manage that holding.
We'd love to keep targeting 10%,
but we're going to make sure
that we don't get into a situation
where we're breaching any limits.
As you know, ETFs can hold up to 15% in illiquid assets.
So 10 is well within that limit.
But sometimes if we feel that the position needs to drift down and acquiring shares might not be the right at this point, we'll hold back.
So this is going to be a deliberate, actively managed position.
And I think that's a really important part of the value proposition of this ETF.
proposition of this ETF. The other thing that I want to highlight, which I think we've taken
maybe an unusual move, just given the history of some of private stakes and competing ETFs,
is we've decided as an issuer to take many of the or all of the costs related to acquiring these
shares as an issuer. So investors won't be paying those costs. So here I'm talking about all the
performance, management fees, things like that related to the SPV. They will be paid by Tema itself. So this avoids kind of this issue and really gives investors exposure to SpaceX and the space economy ETF at a reasonable management fee of about 75 basis points.
What do you think of, you know, of SpaceX's role in everything here?
Is it really something that is...
Are we so early days here that the pie is just going to continue to expand here?
Is that really the play here and everything?
Is there any kind of competition here as these ones?
Or is it really in such the early days where you think everything is expanding so quickly?
SpaceX had a 1.75 trillion, the floated around one, 1.25 around where it was able to pay
that.
That is a very large number, but obviously they're doing some really big things.
So I'm just curious your thoughts around the marketplace, the competitive landscape of
it, and just kind of how quickly you expect this to continue to grow.
Absolutely.
Look, I think perhaps a lot of people, maybe in this year,
especially in public markets, are starting to have to pay attention
to this potential blockbuster IPO and are starting to read up about it
and are realizing, something we realized a while back
how fundamental this company has been to the transformation of the space economy. I mean,
this is a business that 15 years ago, the rockets were blowing up and essentially through hard work,
perseverance, technical breakthroughs, they've been able to create a reusable booster. They've
been able to create the biggest low earth orbit constellation, which is Starlink. They've been able to create the biggest low earth orbit constellation,
which is Starlink. They've essentially pioneered and pushed launch costs down to create and open
up this possibility. And I think it shouldn't be underestimated. I mean, the story is incredible
in terms of really vertically integrating this. And this is the first time this has happened in
the history of aerospace, really, where you've gone and created essentially a vertically integrated player. And it's down to
suppliers. And this is one of the reasons why we're particularly excited about suppliers into SpaceX,
because what's happened is SpaceX has been so ruthless at essentially integrating every possible
supplier that they can get so they can manage every single process, but also to capture that margin.
And the suppliers that are left have been pretty much put to a very, very strong test.
Either they have to have technical capabilities that SpaceX can't achieve, which, you know, as you know, with Elon in charge, it's difficult to imagine.
Or they're just really good suppliers in terms of cost and reliability.
So just kind of think about this business, right?
It accounts for, you know,
50% of all launches. I mean, we're, you know, the last numbers, I think I came out in the last
quarter, I mean, it was like 83% of all launches. It's just SpaceX. It's a monster in terms of its
position in the market. But a monster really that I think is underestimated is how much of a
transformation it's made. It's really pushing the whole industry forward.
To your question on competitors,
look, I think this is going to be an eye opening event for everyone in the market.
Right.
I mean, whether you're a journalist investor or have an interest in this,
I mean, you're going to have to pay attention to the space economy come June.
It's going to enter probably the S&P 500, Nasdaq.
Who knows if they get convinced as soon as the IPO happens, if not over definitely a period of time.
And so people are going to have to figure that out and they're going to have to start to look at some of the businesses that are competing with SpaceX and are related to it.
And this universe, as I mentioned at the start, has expanded.
So there's a lot of really interesting companies that are doing things. And there are competing launch platforms as well, whether it's Rocket Labs or
the European side. And the international side is really interesting, right? Because everyone
probably remembers, you know, starting being cut in Ukraine. And I think countries are realizing
more and more that they need to also have sovereignty over their own launch programs and satellite systems and need competitors to SpaceX. And that is creating another boost and an important part
of the ETF will also be investing in international companies because that's, we just see that, right?
Like Germany is committing 40 billion to a space program and really being serious about this.
And so it's opening up that sovereign angle. It's opening up competitors, right?
And visibility on those competitors
that have been building a decent platform
over the last couple of years.
And the company as SpaceX itself is pushing forward.
We have the demonstration at the TerraFab
presentation of the AI data center satellites.
I mean, it's really fascinating what they're trying to do.
And so I think it's gonna be a combination
of those things, right?
An illumination of the industry, these competitors being pushed,
and all of the suppliers as well, creating this interesting development
that this space hasn't seen before.
Can you tell me more about the rest of the exposures here?
You were talking a little bit about international versus, you know, US.
And I'm curious to hear more about
the other stocks in here around SpaceX,
which was the largest holding, like I said,
but ASCS, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, EchoStar,
some of the other largest holdings
that I am seeing here.
What in general is the U.S.
versus international exposure?
What do you kind of think about
as what parts of the space market are the most interesting for you as you go into it? US versus international exposure. What do you think about as the,
what parts of the space market
are the most interesting for you as you go into it?
Obviously, SpaceX kind of starting us out here,
opening up the market,
but now there's competitors on the launch platforms.
There's also stuff that you can do in the,
whether it's Starlinks of the world,
I see the plan of the labs with imagery as well.
I do run on questions, so I apologize for that.
But I'm curious your thoughts on that stuff.
Oh, that's perfect.
I mean, look, you've obviously got SpaceX, right?
Which is kind of the finding company of the space era and a really, really important part of this ETF
and of the space economy.
And not just because of its size,
but as I mentioned, the innovation that they're pushing.
We've got some competitors in terms of launch and propulsion.
Some of them are maybe dismissed by the market, you know, like Firefly, right, where basically they've had some accidents.
But, you know, early on, rockets blow up.
I mean, that's what happens.
And I think the market takes a dim view, but they're progressing and they're learning.
And that's the other thing that's happened with the space economy.
We, Elon, together with SpaceX, have pushed competitors to this sort of high iteration cycle,
you know, keep trying, keep failing, move on and keep pushing and improving. And that's something
that didn't really happen before. And they've injected this kind of commerciality into it as
well. The biggest driver of the space economy, and McKinsey estimates could be 1.8 trillion,
so triple from now on in the next decade. It really is going to be this commercial driver,
right? This idea that you're going to try new things. So you've got your kind of launch and
propulsion competitors, whether they're in Europe or other competitors in the US. Then you've got
the satellite manufacturers, which is going to be part of that. We're being very selective in this as well. And what we're trying to do is avoid some of the legacy operators.
What the developments in the space economy, very much driven by this move to commercial, are what's happening is that the legacy players, whether they're within government or within commercial, are actually being left behind. And so you have this kind of decline to sort of flatlining part of the market.
You know, the satellite operators
that used to launch really expensive
$600 million satellites up into geostationary orbit
to essentially beam broadband to ships and airplanes,
they're being just outcompeted
by these low-Earth orbit satellites, right?
So it's a fast evolving space in that sense.
And we're trying to invest in the newer part
rather than the older part.
And that goes across government and commercial. And we're trying to invest in the newer part rather than the older part.
And that goes across government and commercial.
And then you've also got this idea of intelligence and imaging, right? Everyone wants to do that.
There are government contracts and you have imaging archives,
which create a kind of moat because you're trying to see the change over time
as well.
And you mentioned a couple of companies in that.
But the one area that we're really excited about is the supply chain.
And we think this is probably the most underappreciated segment and something that just, you know, basically a lot
of our, you know, some of the competitive ETFs and things out there don't really have and have
completely missed. And these are high quality businesses. They're trading at reasonable
multiples and are ramping really, really fast. And they kind of diversified exposure to commercial and defense demand.
And I think that's really important.
They create this kind of interesting angle.
And there's a couple of companies in there.
You can see them in the holdings,
companies like Filtronic,
Universal Microwave, Sphere.
These businesses are going to be
offering something special
into the space economy.
Filtronic, for example, builds radio frequency components,
both for ground stations and satellites.
They're the biggest supplier of this stuff into SpaceX,
but they're a completely unknown company, right?
Listed in the UK for US investors, it's kind of left behind.
Or 5N+, which builds solar panels for space. And as you know, the idea is that when you
start putting these data center type satellites into space, you need massive solar panels to
capture as much of the sun's light, which is that's really the advantage in space, the kind of
infinite free energy. And we have multiple examples of these types of businesses in the portfolio and
businesses that we're looking at to have in the portfolio as well
that have just been missed by the market.
And I think that's a key differentiator.
So you have some of the kind of core competitors,
you have SpaceX, you have the manufacturers,
you have some of the imaging,
but this supply chain, I think,
is going to give us the extra edge in the marketplace.
And then, as you mentioned,
the international part of that as well,
across all of those businesses,
whether they're operating internationally, selling into the U.S. market, or they're just actually getting an impulse from the sovereign demand.
A company like OHB is going to be probably groomed to be a leader in the German market.
We think those are interesting opportunities because of this deglobalization of the space economy.
this deglobalization of the space economy.
I'm curious, as you were going through there,
there's some more of these hot topics.
Space is an interesting one.
Data centers in space has become a large conversation here.
And my thinking around here is there is some of these other smaller private
some of these other smaller private companies,
companies, other stuff going in the future.
other stuff going in the future.
Do you expect the strategy
of having a private company in here
is something that obviously SpaceX,
we know that an imminent IPO
is at least expected and planned.
I'm curious of like,
is that something that you maybe guys expect
to have happen again in the future?
Obviously, if the right company comes up,
maybe there's something with it being close to an IPO.
Do you think with this ETF,
and again, we're talking about the NASA ticker and ASA,
do you expect that to be something you guys do going forward?
Look, I think it's really, really important to stress
that SpaceX is in this portfolio
because this is a space ETF.
We're not trying to be one of those ETF providers that's trying to give you, you know, exposure to private markets.
And, you know, frankly, that's not a strategy that we want to pursue.
But we feel very strongly that to give investors a right exposure, sometimes you have to go through the hard work to acquire shares in the private market. And right now,
when we look at it, SpaceX very much fits the bill. Does that mean that we're going to have
similar private companies that come up in the future? I think the answer has to be at some
point, yeah, we will see companies like that because this is a fast evolving space. I actually
think private transactions or private kind of funding apart from SpaceX in this is maybe just about to heat up.
It actually hasn't been as impressive as I would have expected when I first did all the analysis a couple of months back.
But there are interesting businesses in the space, but we will be deliberate.
And if we see something that is a transformational business model, we will look to include it. But to be completely frank, it has to be something of the caliber or believe the potential of the caliber of SpaceX.
We're not going to be taking speculative positions like that, but it's a really, really fast evolving space.
So we think it's important to keep an eye on that for sure.
I'm curious also around government spending.
And I'd imagine that is still, obviously, you look back 40, 50 years, it was all government spending.
And now there's a lot of these private companies coming in and doing some big stuff.
But I would imagine that government spending, government contracts is a big part of stuff to look into here.
So I'm curious, as you guys are constructing the portfolio,
how that kind of equates in here. Do most of the companies that are in this space
have big government kind of contracts go in there? Yeah, look, I think government's an
important part here, right? And government's been, there's been an interesting kind of evolution as
well within government. I mean, we're essentially seeing them quite interestingly,
something I haven't really seen in other market environments,
transition away from using kind of legacy players
to really actively backing strongly growing commercial players
to deliver government contracts.
SpaceX is obviously the perfect example of that,
but it's happening in other parts as well
and parts in Europe as well.
And I think what they've seen is this cost, right?
I mean, I remember the shuttle programs,
estimates were like, it's like one and a half billion
or something like that.
It costs to deliver that.
And it's incredible that Falcon 9 can go up for $67 million, right, per launch.
And it's a, I think this commerciality is being injected into the government market
because these commercial players are basically massively outcompeting any government legacy
driven programs in terms of cost, scale and deliverability, right?
And that's really, really important.
So you're seeing these players, even within government budgets, try to actually displacing
some of the legacy players. And it's because of a change in business model. The history of
aerospace development is one of really expensive things that take a very long time to build,
that require managing a huge base of suppliers and kind of
assembling and delivering it. Things are mostly over-engineered. And the reason for that is,
well, take satellites as an example. A $600 million satellite that goes up into geostationary orbit,
it's going to be up there for 25 years. So you better hope that it's not going to get hit by
something, that the component's not going to fail. If you think about low Earth orbit,
you're talking about thousands of satellites
up 1,000 kilometers above the Earth's surface
or 500 kilometers.
And there sometimes doesn't really matter
if one of them gets knocked out
because you're delivering so many more up there.
The cost of each one is less of an impact on the business.
And that kind of rapid iteration is something
that's happening in the government market as well. The government market is growing, and there are
parts of it that are growing even faster because governments have been very focused in terms of
their strategic initiatives. I mentioned Germany, but France, Italy, they're all committing large
funds, but towards building national champions rather than
and that are in the mold of SpaceX, so in a very commercial mindset. So that is going to be a
rapid evolution. So it's a growing market, but with the legacy players and legacy parts of it,
I think kind of either flat or going away. And there's a focus on building champions and building
a better future that is more commercially driven.
And it helps because space is the government program.
Part of it is some of it is defense and imaging and satellites like that.
And some of it is civil, which is, you know, space agencies like NASA.
That I think is an important part of it as well and is the thing that is driving the mentality change.
It's really interesting to see the latest lunar plans
from NASA that were announced last week
and the amount of money that's going into that as well
and how they're going to plan that.
I thought that was one of the interesting strategies.
Is there anything, I'm just, is there anything that like,
I'm sure there's a couple
questions that keep coming up.
And I'm sure the questions that are coming up when you're talking towards retail investors
and institutional investors are very different.
So I'd be curious if there is questions maybe you were expecting me to ask here that you're
maybe getting asked a lot with those type of conversations, like maybe anything you were
like, I hope he doesn't ask me this.
I always like to hear that.
It's I think it's good for people to be informed investors.
But yeah, any of those questions that I haven't asked today?
Look, I think some of the questions we're getting asked is,
is, you know, the ones you asked, for example, right?
Like, why now? Right?
What is the sort of, you know, why would you,
why should I be interested in the space economy now?
And as I said, we feel very strongly that after a very strong period of falling launch costs,
we're entering the stage where things get enabled. And by the way, we see this everywhere, right?
This idea that once costs come down to a certain level, suddenly it unlocks a ton of opportunities.
And opportunities we might not be able to see now of being able to
put infrastructure into orbit of earth and the exploration that can happen from beyond.
And this shouldn't be underestimated. There's so many interesting things that can happen.
The second thing is this sort of people, you know, maybe think, oh oh is space just about exploration and and the beyond and and they forget
the fact that starlink's essentially built a broadband provider right i mean they are able
to beam broadband to anywhere on earth for a hundred dollars a month which is actually you
know someone i mean depending on you know if you're living in the u.s is that uncompetitive
bill and especially if you live in a rural area,
people forget, right?
There's two and a half billion
to four billion estimated people
that have no internet connection on Earth.
There are 85% of the Earth's surface,
and admittedly a lot of that is ocean,
just has no mobile signal.
And so the things that become possible
when you have this kind of ubiquitous internet,
so you're even looking at home, sorry, on earth is vast.
And we think Starlink's a massive part of that and it's going to enable other things.
It's a broadband's a trillion dollar market.
So you don't need to think so far beyond just to focus on the stuff that actually is happening on earth and is already
enabled and then the sort of what is enabled and we spend a lot of time analyzing things so people
often ask okay tell us about data centers tell us about manufacturing and when we start talking
about those things I think at first there's this massive skepticism about those things you know
is it just a gimmick this idea of data
centers in space and i have to admit i was also skeptical and i think it's important as an investor
to be that when you start reading about it you actually start to understand well the biggest
constraint to building out essentially the ai revolution in terms of data is energy and in space
energy is infinite and that i think is a key driver of this.
The fact that these satellites are in low earth orbit
and you start to realize that it's not,
doesn't matter if they fail
or there's debris that crashes into them.
And I think then there's a realization actually
the gains are there to be had.
And if you're sort of mass producing these things
the cost will be there as well.
And it enables a lot of things.
So we're getting asked a lot of those kinds of questions around the drivers of the space economy.
Then, of course, we get asked, as you said, you know, what's in the portfolio? Tell us about SpaceX. And, you know, why do you think this is different to what's out there? And one of the
things that we do often highlight in all of this is Tema is a institutional grade fund manager,
and highlight in all of this is Tema is a institutional grade fund manager, right? We are,
you know, we have an investment team with decades of experience looking at these different thematic
areas. We've had a couple of successful ETFs that have been going for years now,
and we're just able to put together interesting universes in areas that are rapidly evolving,
apply differential research to kind of pick the best companies.
And passive indices, which is the kind of chosen tool in many of these areas, just can't keep up.
They lag by design. And I'm not really talking about not being able to hold SpaceX, but really everything in terms of looking forward and understanding how this economy evolves. And I
think that's a really important part of how it is is because we can sit here today and try to predict, but the reality is it's just going
to be a really fast evolving space. And we really see this. When you have this inflection point,
things start to unlock and people haven't been able to imagine them. So you have to always be
looking forward and not backwards, which is what we're trying to do. I really appreciate you guys for joining in. Again, Temma ETFs joining us to talk about their new NASA launch.
It is a Space Innovators ETF.
Tweet pinned up in the nest above.
We'll take you there.
The post is doing pretty well.
The people are interested in this one.
So obviously a good first day.
Whenever you see something up in after hours or something,
maybe you want to limit orders are good, or maybe you just wait for the next day. But let's wait till market hours.
We always want smart, informed investors here. And obviously, it's a good time to dig in,
do your research. As people are digging in here, obviously, the website is a great place to go,
TAMETS.com. Is there any other places, any places on the website specifically?
We're talking about the prospectus and fact sheet and any other places that you think people should look at as they are starting their research here?
Yeah, absolutely.
And I think it's really, really important to reiterate.
Do your work, research the fund, look at the holdings, really see how it fits in your portfolio and the exposures you have relative to those things.
Those are really,
really important to do. The prospectus has a lot of information, including about how we're going to be handling the fees of the private exposure. And I think that's important for investors to
really understand how that works and how that's unique relative to other things they might be
looking at. The webpage, 10ETFs.com is where you go. And then if you go
forward slash NASA and ASA, you'll be able to find the ETF page, which has a fact sheet and
all the information you can find there. And then if you head to our insights page, we're going to
start publishing lots of really interesting articles on the space economy. We're going to
be looking into some of our holdings. For those of you interested in learning more about specific
companies as they get illuminated,
whether you're a professional investor or retail and you've got a real interest in this,
I think that's going to be a great place for you to look because these companies are going
to get more and more of the limelight as SpaceX IPOs and people realize the changes
people realize the changes that have happened in the space economy.
that have happened in the space economy.
So as I said, www.temaets.com forward slash NASA.
And also our insights page, I think is really good.
Subscribe to our newsletter.
That'll be great as well.
We appreciate you for joining in.
Definitely go check that out.
I am sure space is only going to be a conversation that continues to pick up
here.
And I'm excited for maybe more of these conversations going forward.
So if anyone has any thoughts, questions, anything like that,
we always love being a part of the research area.
So if you guys want to ask the team anything, ask Yuri anything,
please send us our way and we'll make sure to ask that next time we get the
chance to talk. But I really do appreciate you.
Make sure you're following Yuri.
Make sure you're following that Temit ETFs account as he was saying there as
well. Go to the website website all of that good stuff but i
really do appreciate you for uh for joining us here on this one any any final words you want to
leave the people with and then we did a pretty good job there but yeah anything else uh no i
think we've covered everything um for as as mentioned for those interested follow our account
you'll see lots of content related space and and check out maybe some of our other ETFs if if you're interested and um you know good luck out there
and keep your wits on you you know it's it's a it's an interesting market things change a lot
but it change often means a lot of opportunities for investment and if you really believe in things
in terms of structural growth and and infions, that has always been a positive strategy
over the long history of humankind.
Thank.
Mic drop.
Not even going to try and say too much after that.
Great way to end the spaces.
Shout out to Yuri.
Shout out to Stock Talk Ryan.
If you enjoy these conversations,
make sure you're following all of the accounts up here.
Shout out to that Wolf account.
Post cool stuff. Posts good things.
We will catch you all
same time, same place tomorrow
at 3 p.m. Eastern
at 2.5 p.m. Eastern.
Thank you, everyone. Let's hope here
for another green day. I like it.
Have a great one, team. Thank you.
