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Tariff Wars Trigger CRYPTO MELTDOWN (the bigger picture)
Recorded: April 3, 2025 Duration: 0:56:58Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current market sentiment characterized by extreme fear, while highlighting potential growth opportunities in altcoins like ADA and Ethereum. Influential figures like Anthony Pompliano provided insights on macroeconomic factors, suggesting that despite the prevailing anxiety, there are signs of resilience and potential recovery in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
That is some extreme fear right there, everybody.
11, extreme fear.
And this isn't like the crypto extreme fear index.
We're going to take a look at that in this video.
I pulled up the volatility S&P 500 index.
And wait till you see, because I'm really excited to talk about this in this video.
Wait till you see, because I'm really excited to talk about this in this video.
When in Trump's first term, when all the tariff fear was happening at the, you know, in the 2018
bear market capitulation, look where this chart was. I really want to dissect this because
look where we are right now. That is happening right now. At the end of the day, everybody,
I just want to, I just want to put out there, out there, my approach to crypto is a very zoomed
out macro approach. I've done live streams. I've done videos through so many capitulations and dips
and high fear events. Right now, we're in one of those things. And I have sympathy. I want to say
that. Even though I'm bullish, even though I'm just always kind of having an optimistic, positive tone, I have sympathy.
I don't like waking up to red charts either.
I really don't.
Especially this cycle from an altcoin perspective, you know, things are different this cycle.
Things have been delayed and it is frustrating and I completely understand that.
But that alone will not sway my macro vision for the space, my macro approach to crypto,
especially now. Because put aside what we want to happen, what we think is going to happen,
the data, I think, is becoming very clear. So hit the subscribe and like on the way in.
I really appreciate all of you cruising through. I really do. If you're out there and you've been just watching, you're a supporter. I've seen some
awesome positive comments lately. I just want to say thank you to all of you. So let's really try
and dig into the charts a little bit. I did not want to go live today, right now. This is a mental
exercise for me. Something I learned in life is
I like to, when there's some type of pain, struggle, I think it's better to lean into it.
I think it's better to face it aggressively as opposed to the opposite. Complain about it,
curl up in a corner, detract away from it. I become this person that I want to lean into
the pain. And that's why I'm doing a live stream. Because let me tell you, it is painful. It is
painful to do live streams right now. When we're going parabolic, it's fun. And I think we'll be
there again, but it's painful to do the live stream. Let's talk about all this. I'm going
to look at Bitcoin charts.
I want to look at the US dollar. Look at the US dollar on the monthly.
These are things that we've been talking about. I want to look at Bitcoin on the zoomed in,
on the daily. I want to look at altcoin charts, support, what's going on with altcoins. I know right now I'm seeing a lot. It's game over.
The whole thing, the whole high fear sentiment is there,
but we're in a higher low right now.
I want to discuss, I want to look at ADA charts.
I want to look at Ethereum charts.
Any dog holders out there, meme coin holders out there,
I want to look at a dog chart and really speak to this.
Remember, we're leaning into the pain today.
So let's go. My boy,
John McDonough is in the chat. My boy, what is up, dude? Glad you're here. Glad you are here.
This is normal. John, you know what's up. You know what's up, dude. You really do.
Okay. So here's the deal. I want to start. Before we look at all these charts, I do want to make a note because we're going to talk about some of these things. Anthony Pompliano has been
so on point lately. I appreciate him for kind of also just standing in the face of all of the fear,
what's going on, focusing on data, focusing on even the anticipation of what's going to be happening
soon. But he said inflation has been rapidly falling since the first round of tariffs
were announced earlier this year. The idea that tariffs create inflation is wrong. We've gone
from over 3% inflation to now under 1.4% inflation in a matter of 90 days. This is Truflation. We've used Truflation over
the years on this YouTube channel. Incredible data, kind of a leading indicator for inflation.
And I absolutely appreciate Anthony for using this data because I think it is clear what is
happening. And he posted this yesterday. The Federal Reserve should be
cutting rates immediately. They are behind the curve already. So this is obviously an opinion,
but I think a hint to what is coming. We look at the 10-year yield starting to fall.
It's starting to fall. This can be a very good thing for risk on assets like Bitcoin,
like crypto. And real quick, I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this chart. I just want
to make a note, you know, back here, December 2018 was the capitulation phase of the bear market.
This was the, you know, the tariff fear of Trump's last term. And this is what happened next on the 10-year
yield. So now let's kind of start talking about what is going on, what's happening.
Fear at 11. We're going to kind of start with the fear and greed index, the volatility index vibe,
and then we'll cruise over to the charts and really look at what's going on.
So here's the fear and greed index. We'll take a
glance in terms of just Bitcoin. You can just see it's choppy. Right now, what are we at?
We're at like 25. We're at 25. You see here on the screen. It's high fear. What I just want to make a note of on this chart is,
you know, we've been falling into this whole entire area for this whole consolidation so far.
And if you remember that long eight month consolidation for Bitcoin, you know, that we
kind of fell in all the way back here, all of this downside, this is a monthly chart on Bitcoin,
in all the way back here, all of this downside, this is a monthly chart on Bitcoin, but all of
this downside, if you go look at that on the fear and greed index, that was here, right? So you just
see a bunch of clusters of fear, and then we're bouncing out of fear. We're falling back in fear,
bouncing. So in my view, just as a very like zoomed out thought, I think we're in some type of area like this, as opposed to what I'm trying to get
at is entering a bear market. And there are many reasons and a couple of very key reasons why I
don't think we're entering a bear market. And I'm going to discuss in this video why.
So let's look at this chart though, because when we're talking about fear,
this chart though, because this, when we're talking about fear, this is really what I just
pulled it up. This is intriguing to me. So on the SMP 500 chart, this is a roadmap for,
for everything that's going on right now. And the, what I'm talking about right now is very,
is for people that are zoomed out and people that are like, I'm staying a while. This is painful.
I don't like this, but I'm here. I'm staying here. I'm a macro-minded person. That's what this chart is because that's where my head's
at. That's where it's been at. But here's the deal. What's happening here is this whole tariff
situation is obviously leading to an incredible amount of uncertainty, fear, and the fear
headlines are not helping. The misinformation obviously plays into downside as well, but we're in this
big retracement on S&P 500. If you look at Trump's first term two cycles ago, this was what was
happening. Tariffs, the tariff fear coming into play. This is when Trump called himself a tariff man. And in the month or a few weeks that followed,
basically the markets capitulated in a crazy amount of fear. So at that moment, when all of
that was happening, right, obviously a little bit different because Trump's even more aggressive
right now with his approach here. But when that was happening, this is what the fear index, the volatility index was
doing. This is quite high on this area, but you can see December 2018, and you can see it even
wicked like a very high fear capitulation is what this is on this weekly chart on the volatility
index. And then guess what this was? This was the bottom of the bear market. That's what was
happening right here. We are in a very similar environment in terms of the fear, in terms of how
markets are reacting to the tariffs. And I'm not sitting here saying we're going to top out
on this fear area, like at the same exact area. It could go higher, right? It could top out right here.
It could be somewhere within the range. But I do want to say, historically speaking,
we're at a very high fear area right now on this volatility index.
The reason why that is so important to me is we have two things happening. We're entering
a very high fear area, which two cycles ago indicated
the bottom, by the way, but it's happening at a time where the Fed is getting ready to slow down
quantitative tightening and lower interest rates. Those are the ingredients that I am ultra focused on right now. And I know that when
we're in this short term or even maybe a midterm dip, and we're going to get to Bitcoin and alt
coin charts in a moment, I know when we're in this dip, it's looking terrible. But when you
look at the confluence of data on the macro and what is happening, and if you're a person like me that looks at tariffs and I'm like, this is ultimately going
to be a very good thing for the economy, we have a very nice mix of ingredients.
And so that makes it a little bit easier for me to lean into the pain here and actually do a
live stream. So if we're taking those pieces of data, for me, it's kind of like, all right, the S&P 500 chart,
for instance, I don't know when, I don't know how it will bottom. This is what it looked like,
you know, after all that high fear then, and you can see the Fed policy was getting ready to pivot,
right, out of quantitative tightening back then as well. And we're just in a very similar environment. So all of that is happening right now. While
if we go to Bitcoin chart, Bitcoin is just, and I have a monthly chart kind of just pulled up
because it's like, you know, let me, let me put some data here. People calling bear market, right? As we're looking at the
quantitative tightening, interest rates are going to start coming down, quantitative tightening
slowing down. That's getting ready to happen. Bear market for Bitcoin on a chart is back here.
But I just want to, in case you've missed me say it a million times lately, right here was
quantitative tightening beginning. So that's the difference here. And by the way, I just posted,
what's great about this high fear event is that it'll have a net positive, I think,
the tariffs. And that's on top of all the fundamentals that everyone has already so quickly forgotten about.
There is, you know, when we're pumping, I have maybe 15,000 people in this live stream.
Right now, there's 2,500 people in the live stream.
That is incredibly important.
Right now, there should be 15,000 people in the live stream
because we are actually entering a high opportunity zone. I don't say that a lot
in these environments because people are already a little bit annoyed with me for just being bullish
and macro bullish and optimistic. But I definitely don't want to just keep saying it's high opportunity,
go buy the dip, go buy the dip. I'm not going to sit here and ever tell anybody to buy.
not going to sit here and ever tell anybody to buy. But pro-crypto administration, strategic
Bitcoin reserve, altcoin stockpile, deregulation, institutional adoption, nation state race to buy
Bitcoin. All of these things are happening, everybody, for the first time ever in crypto.
So right now is when people should be locking in, I think, and paying attention. And it's the
opposite. We have not a lot of people here. Engagement for crypto content is like all-time lows, fear, all-time highs,
negative comments, all-time highs. The absolute sentiment shift is incredible. And I think that's
a very telling picture of who's zoomed out and who just wants a quick 10x. So that's Bitcoin on the
monthly. Now let's kind of get into the technicals of it. And I agree with this comment. Ignore the
noise. No way the tariff is a small thing. The only thing we can do is wait. I definitely, I'm not saying it's a small thing.
The tariffs is a massive thing.
This is, you know, I have this brought up.
We've been getting hosed since World War II
by the trade imbalance.
You can do what Biden and Obama did,
which is just ignore it completely.
The best part of Trump's speech today was that he said,
you go to Japan or South Korea or China or Germany,
you're not going to see any American cars. So Trump is right. This is a massive thing.
This is an absolute brutally painful short-term thing. I'm not discounting that. But what I'm saying is on the macro, what this is for America is a very bullish thing. And the economy is a very bullish
thing. It's why the everyday worker here that understands what is happening is actually getting
bullish because it's going to bring jobs back to America. So this has made me so numb about the dumps. I barely care anymore.
I'm kind of with you.
I'm kind of with you on that one.
And that's just over the years of tracking these markets.
So with that being said, let's try and get into the,
I want to try and get into the analysis.
So we already just looked at all of the data
in terms of Trump tariff fear starting like right
here led into the 2018 bear market low. I don't know what that structure or setup or capitulation
or non-capitulation will look like this time. But what I can say is if you're looking at this
Bitcoin chart, it's pretty incredible to me. With S&P 500, traditional markets down the
way they are, Bitcoin looks, I mean, currently this weekly candle is not very nice looking,
but Bitcoin just looks crazy bullish. And I'm saying that putting aside any,
you know, fear that's out there because of tariffs or because of whatever the fear is. I'm just saying
that from an actual technical analysis standpoint, inverse head and shoulders, I'm sick of charting
this. So I'm sure many of you are probably sick of me seeing it, but we got the throwback to the
neckline. This is just such a nice structured technical move for Bitcoin, regardless
of what's happening in the world, regardless of what's happening with tariffs, whether it's
happening or not. What is this nice setup? That isn't to say that it's not going to fall below
that neckline, but so far, incredible that it's held up. I want to say if we get some type of similar, just
brutal capitulation in these markets, it came out of the structure, the time was different, right?
But the tariff capitulation just came out of nowhere. A couple of weeks of just brutal on
the screen. But if that happens, we have to obviously anticipate
that the neckline will fail. We can't just say, hey, we got the throwback to the neckline,
which we've been talking about since above 100,000. We can't just say, boom, it's just so
nice. We're bouncing up. We can track. We can see if it happens. That's what I'll be doing.
But I'm absolutely, especially with the state of things over the coming weeks,
I have to anticipate a move like December 18 low, bear market low could happen.
That is capitulation.
What that looks like, I don't know.
But what I will be monitoring is something we've talked about already.
It's the swing low back here to swing high.
And it is a higher low Fibonacci.
It's around 72,000 at the 618 range. And it is around the
62,000 range at the 786. So if markets continue just to see downside, react strongly to the
downside, capitulate to the downside, That's the range I'll be watching
for Bitcoin. But I want to mention to you, as we keep talking about all these charts,
don't forget what is happening with quantitative tightening, with interest rates.
with quantitative tightening, with interest rates. Don't forget what is happening. And I'm
surprised. I thought I had a US dollar chart up, but don't forget what is happening with the US
dollar chart. And I want to take a look at this. So we just looked at support for Bitcoin. I'll go
back to Bitcoin and talk about potential upside, but I do want to take a glance at this really briefly because I meant to do this before looking at cryptos.
This is the US dollar chart. If you've been watching my YouTube channel, we've been talking
about the US dollar somewhere back here, putting in a similar fractal to Trump's first term.
There's the fractal we've been tracking. And do you see how it's been playing out? So the reason I'm bringing the dollar up is because
the dollar, if it continues to fall, interest rates start coming down, dollars falling,
10-year yield is falling. This is going to be likely a good thing for cryptos and these risk on assets. So for me, I'm just trying to
zoom out all these charts. I'm seeing the bigger picture. And the more we fall into high fear and
oversold environments, the more bullish all of these things actually become. So if you see me
or see my sentiment as we're falling into high fear and oversold become more
bullish, it frustrates people, but that's just why. It's just because that's my take here.
So US dollar though, absolutely insane to see this chart just almost repeating exactly back here at Trump's first term.
So that's the US dollar chart. We're going to keep an eye on it. We're going to monitor it.
Going back to Bitcoin, that was a weekly. We talked about the inverse head and shoulders
throwback. I want to talk about the daily chart because we have a continued, and it's incredible
to really see Bitcoin.
All of the fear that's out there, everything that you see right now, YouTube comments,
X, headlines, whatever you're seeing, it's pretty crazy that right now, even since the March swing
low a few weeks ago or so, right now, and this might not hold, but Bitcoin's in a higher low consolidation
on the short term. And we just have a continued squeezing of the moving averages. What's so
incredible to me is if you could visualize, and I'm not saying this is what's going to happen,
but on the short term, all of a sudden, Bitcoin actually sees a daily candle that breaks through all
these moving averages. We almost had one yesterday, right? Or two days ago, we were talking about be
careful. There could be resistance. We got the resistance. But imagine we get a green candle,
we start flipping above these moving averages, the 50 day moving average around 87,000 $5,000
move for Bitcoin. This could happen in a day, right? So it's like a six, 7% move for Bitcoin. This could happen in a day, right? So it's like a six, 7% move for Bitcoin,
but imagine that happens and imagine how quick sentiment will shift.
This is something that happens time and time again. I kind of allude to it a lot on my videos.
It's like people start calling for bear market, right? And then all of a sudden we're pumping a
little. People are like, dude, we're back in business. It's a bull market. And then all of a sudden we're pumping a little. People are like, dude, we're back in business. It's a bull market. And then all of a sudden we crash again and we're like, man,
it's a bear market. I cannot play that game. I just can't play that game. I like to sit here
and anticipate these types of similar fractals because they play out so often. And so that's why
through this entire kind of consolidation phase
for Bitcoin, I've just been trying to, you know, it's going to be choppy. We've said we can test
previous lows. It's going to be choppy. It's going to be grueling. It's going to take a while.
And this is what I've been tracking. But to the upside, I am waiting to see if Bitcoin can make
a move $84,000 to the 20 and then $86,000 to the 200 day moving average, and then $87,000 to the 20, and then $86,000 to the 200-day moving average, and then $87,000 to the 50-day
moving average, break those areas, we're going to be in a more bullish event, bullish environment
where we can start looking for potential reversal. That's why I'm not saying actual
immediate reversal confirmation, but if we start getting support above the moving averages,
like right here, then that's what I'm talking about.
So I'm glancing over.
I want to see how everybody's doing.
I want to see.
Ask him what he thinks alt season will happen.
It's like assuming he has a crystal ball.
No one knows, that's for sure no one knows
I'm going to look at altcoins next
I absolutely want to talk about altcoins
what else you got going on everybody
I appreciate you out there
I'm happy to be here with you
I know many of you are leaning into the pain with me. Whoa,
what's up with this?
I agree. This is my approach. Relax, zoom out. This is a big one. I meant to bring these points
up too, like the fact that Jerome Powell is
going to be speaking tomorrow, jobs report coming tomorrow. And it's kind of like, what is this
going to look like? So, and I'm glad, I'm glad that you commented that because as we're talking
about all of these things, right? For me, I am very curious to see, because listen,
tariff, look, tariff similarity, 2018, end of quantitative tightening, or at least the signs
and the hints that quantitative tightening is going to end right back here too. We're in a very similar thing.
So I'm very curious to see, and this'll be weeks, months ahead. We look back and we say,
hey, this is how it played out. I'm so curious to see how it plays out and compares to the bottoming out there, bottoming out here. How bad is it? How not bad is it? These are the things I'm so curious of.
You zoom out on a Bitcoin chart, there's a ton of cushion for downside. But the reason I'm saying
that is because on the short-term jobs report coming tomorrow, Jerome Powell speaking, what's
his tone? What's he saying? Does the market react in such a way that we finally are going to get
more of a capitulation candle? We're going to lose such a way that we finally are going to get more of a
capitulation candle? We're going to lose the neckline support. We're going to lose the 50
week moving average support around 75. We really start capitulating. Then we have like kind of
December 2018 vibes in play, right? So I'm just very curious and I absolutely have no idea what's going to happen. But I will say this, if we get similar capitulation,
it's ugly. But if we get similar bottoming out, then guess what? The bottom is very close right
now. So I don't know what it will look like, but imagine we go here to support and then we
consolidate and then we're bouncing out for the rest of the year. Imagine we go here to support and then we consolidate and then we're bouncing out for
the rest of the year. Imagine we go even lower. Imagine Bitcoin goes at 200 week moving average.
Bonkers to me to think with everything that is going on, who is actually accumulating Bitcoin
right now. But that plays out and that's the bottom. Then we enter. do you see, these are my thoughts. These are my
kind of more zoomed out thoughts. It requires more patience than most of us would like, but
you know, doing these videos every day, I think has actually helped me a lot in terms of
understanding that bigger picture and really leaning into the bigger picture.
So let's look at altcoins. And if you're out there in a live stream,
please smash that like button for me.
Appreciate you.
Powell can't decrease the rates
because it will look like Trump pushed him to do so.
Powell will lose all credibility.
Trump created a lose-lose. I don't think so.
Trump created a lose-lose.
I don't think so.
I think Jerome Powell lags things a little bit longer than markets would like, but I don't think that's going to happen.
Interest rates absolutely need to come down, and I think they will.
Tariff was the visible black swan.
If that's the black swan,
it's a very,
it's, I don't know if,
kind of ironic to say,
a healthy black swan.
It's going to be a very interesting day tomorrow
with Jobs and Jerome Powell talking.
Here's allcoin charts.
The thing that's crazy about altcoin charts,
and again, excuse my optimism,
but it's...
So, this is a weekly zoomed out.
Here's bear market lows.
These are altcoins.
This is everything excluding Bitcoin.
This is the market cap.
I realize some of you hold altcoins
that are down more than what you see here.
I hold altcoins that are down more
than what you see here.
But this, for me, is important even to those altcoins that are down more than what you see here. But this for me is important even to
those altcoins. And we're going to talk about one in this video. The reason why it's important is
because this is an indicator of the current trend of markets. So bottom of the bear market back here,
I want to just point your attention. So from that swing low to that swing high exiting,
point your attention. So from that swing low to that swing high exiting, you can see this
Fibonacci throwback, massive volatility. I'm sure during it all, I have to go back,
look at videos, not going to, but 25% to downside, starting to retest bear market lows.
People were saying probably bear market is not over. Crypto is done. We're going lower.
High fear. We get into crazy high
fear in that moment and guess what happens you can see here it takes months to do but the bottom
was in and then we pop out of it right and if you remember it's a pretty nice run so swing low there to that next swing high.
What do we have?
A full-on retracement once again for the altcoin charts.
So from that swing high to swing low, 43% on this chart.
And I am sure, not going to go look at videos or sentiment, but I'm sure.
And we talk about this a lot, August 2024, right?
The fear that was there on Bitcoin,
on crypto, that was on this chart testing this higher low Fibonacci. So we tested this higher low Fibonacci. We tested this higher low Fibonacci. And again, as we're testing it,
it takes months to exit, but that was the low for altcoins on this chart.
Now, this is not a guarantee, but it's something to monitor
because if you take it now from that swing low back here to swing high, very nice swing high,
if you remember, it feels like yesterday we were enjoying the parabolic move into altcoin season
that obviously didn't happen and got delayed, but swing high, back down to Fibonacci retracement again.
So this is the third Fibonacci retracement over years
that we're falling into on the altcoin chart.
And again, maybe even more than ever,
we see incredible fear.
Our bear market is starting.
It's over. Crypto is starting. It's over.
Crypto is over.
It's destroyed.
Tariffs have destroyed everything.
But you know what's crazy to me?
Actually, out of all of these higher lows, right,
this higher low is happening at just a moment.
And when I say moment, that is kind of on the macro,
but a moment before, again,
quantitative tightening starts slowing down.
Interest rates start coming down.
And as we just looked, the dollar falling,
the way in which it's falling.
There's so many pieces
that are coming together for crypto. And again, I'm not talking at all about the deregulation.
I'm not talking at all about, Gensler's not in office anymore. Just to remind you,
how quickly we forget what's actually happening in the crypto space and how early we are, how quickly we forget because we're in a moment of like extreme downside.
But you look at the fundamentals, you look at, you know, in this consolidation, what's
actually happening on the macro.
This is why I remain bullish.
And, you know, it's unpopular to do that,
but it just is what it is.
And I'm grateful that I can sit here
or I'm actually standing,
but I'm grateful that I can stand here
and do live streams and document this.
Because at the end of the day,
I don't know what will happen.
I always say it may be crypto just all goes to zero.
But even in that sense, I'll be happy that I sat here and I documented kind of the journey.
But if the crypto space wins, if trillions and trillions and trillions does pour into the space,
I will also be grateful and happy that I sat here and I did these live streams and we tracked even the painful times.
grateful and happy that I sat here and I did these live streams and we tracked even the painful times
because it is true in crypto and in life that often in painful times is where there's opportunity.
And I think this is no different. It's absolutely no different. And I'm going to continue speaking
to that. So here is the altcoin chart testing a higher low.
So the question is, from a technical perspective,
is like, all right, well, is it going to hold?
So the bottom range of the Fibonacci is very close
with a very ugly weekly red candle.
The bottom range of the Fibonacci is like, you know,
three, 4% away from where all coins are right now. So if Bitcoin is going to capitulate in a sense that
we saw in the tariff fears of Trump's first term to the bottom, capitulate to the bottom,
if it's going to happen on Bitcoin,
this chart likely not going to hold the Fibonacci. So that's something to consider.
If somehow we kind of on the shorter term, get out of the tariff fears without capitulation,
this is absolutely worthwhile to watch. We might have a weekly wick below the Fibonacci,
but if we're closing candles within the Fibonacci, and then ultimately,
maybe it's kind of sideways and choppy for even weeks or months, grueling, this could be a very,
very bullish thing for altcoin charts. That's something to monitor and we'll have to monitor.
If we fail the Fibonacci high or low support, then obvious next support would be the 200-week moving average. So
just brutal on the chart. If we fall to this area, if you notice the bottom of the bear market,
we'd be very close to kind of like a bear market bottoming out area that is just below the 200-week
moving average. So no matter how you spin it, we see support here.
We go a little lower to the 200-week moving average,
or we absolutely capitulate to find a bottom below the 200-week moving average.
The band-aid has been ripped off if you really think about this, right?
And so if all of those, no matter which one of those scenarios plays out,
if all of those things are happening while interest rates finally do start coming down,
while the tariff fear subsides, who knows what kind of deals will be made with tariffs?
Who knows what kind of bullish news will come out from the economic standpoint?
But then we have all of the other things.
We have a ton of altcoin institutional ETFs in play.
What happens when
they start getting approved? And we start getting more news about the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
We get news about altcoin stockpile. There's so much fundamental bullish stuff for the space that
whether we bottom here at the 200 week moving average or
slightly below at the end of the day, it's still kind of like a higher low. And this is where my
mind is at and why I struggle to just flip bearish. I got a comment earlier and somebody
was like, read the room, read the room, dude. Like it's
time to be bearish. And I just, I don't, I find it impossible to, to understand that statement.
Reading the room would be like following the masses, which historically, not just in crypto,
but in traditional markets is the absolute worst thing to do. It's when
there's high fear. This is why, you know, Warren Buffett's quote, you know, about being greedy
when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. That's why it's so meaningful is
because like when we're falling into fear, it's not time to read the room, everybody. It's for me,
falling into fear, it's not time to read the room, everybody. It's for me, at least, it's time to
read the data, focus on the data, focus on the plan, and ignore the room. And so that's where
my head's at. This is altcoins. We go over to an ADA chart. Look at ADA. Again, please excuse my optimism, but ADA is in a higher low as well with altcoins.
ADA is, you know, from bear market lows, even in this crazy high fear environment that we're in
right now is still up almost 200% from bear market lows. It's currently testing the 50 week
moving average. The thing about ADA is I'm very curious to see,
I really am from the short-term perspective, whether or not this tariff stuff is going to
send crypto into capitulation or not. Because if it doesn't, and we'll monitor, but if ADA gets
support above this 50-week moving average, right? In a similar sense that we got support above the
50-week moving average and below the
20 week back here and we just continue to consolidate and squeeze below these moving
averages that will be insane i mean that could be maybe too good to be true situation and if
that's the case similar to what we just saw on the altcoin charts if we need to go lower and test the next support, we have this kind of lower trendline, higher low area for ADA down here in the 40s is what it is.
It's painful to even say, I don't like it, but you can just see even a Fibonacci,
the 786, higher low 786 is right around 50, right? So we could fall lower on ADA.
our low 786 is right around 50, right?
So we could fall lower on ADA.
But with that being said,
if you look at all of these charts
and you go back to the fear involved,
this is a volatility S&P 500 index.
And you realize, man,
like we are at this high fear event
similar to last tariff bear market low area in 2018, we're entering that
similar area, interest rates, Fed pivot, all that, I think it's a very good idea to
pay attention to charts, to what's going on right now.
Fear Bonacci levels are juicy.
A Fear Bonacci.
That is an actual awesome...
That is an awesome name.
Fear Bonacci.
That sounds like a great indicator name.
We're building the crypto capital venture intelligence platform right now. And I might have to run that by the guys. Fear Benaci
indicator. Because that is absolutely incredible. Dan has no idea what will happen. Yes. I 100%
shout that out and agree. I have no idea what happened. I know what I what will happen. Yes. I 100% shout that out and agree.
I have no idea what happened.
I know what I think will happen.
And you all know what I think will happen. Thank you for the comment man
appreciate it
I do
rambling does nothing
markets don't care about feelings
100% agree with that
I don't know if that comment was to me or not
if I'm rambling about anything
I think it's only about data.
I'm just trying to bring all the data together in this presentation.
Crypto is here to stay.
ETH.
ETH, please.
Tell that to people that have negative 80% portfolios.
We can talk about that.
Let's talk about it.
Let's talk about it.
The thing is,
anybody that has 80% portfolios,
we can take ADA for example,
and we can look at Ethereum too.
ADA from previous swing high
to where it is right now,
down 50%.
Ethereum,
actually I'm kind of curious.
Ethereum,
I want to look at Ethereum obviously in this video.
Ethereum down more than ADA.
This is crazy.
ADA, this is actually very interesting data. From bear market low to where Ethereum is right now,
Ethereum up around 100%. And ADA up from bear market low, what do we say? Almost 200%.
ADA is outperforming Ethereum. When we get back into the bullish environment, please,
this is going to be something to pay attention to for ADA for the cycle. And I say when we get
back into bullish environment, because again, no guarantees. I don't know what will happen,
but I've been doing these videos for so many years. Eventually the fear goes away.
We start pumping again and we can start talking about upside.
pumping again and we can start talking about upside. But if you look at 52% down on ADA,
56% down on Ethereum from like local previous highs. And then somebody asks about what about
people that are down 80%. Well, whether you're down 50%, maybe you bought here, you're down 50%.
50%. Maybe you bought here, you're down 50%. Maybe you bought altcoins that are down 80%
or meme coins, I'm sorry, or other altcoins that are down 80%.
This isn't advice of any sort, but I just want to say, if you go on any of these charts,
what about people that were down 80% here? What about people that were down 80% here?
And then Ethereum exited that, right? And you can go back cycles and cycles past
and ask that question. Because at the end of the day, if you're going to buy a crypto, whether it's an altcoin, even Bitcoin, or a memecoin, it's always necessary to realize that the altcoin can crash big.
This is one thing I always talk about on this YouTube channel.
We go back cycles past and we look at massive dips.
So the question is, what about people that bought here on Ethereum? And then they were down massive
or bought some type of meme coin back there and it was down massive. But then look what happens
next. It's always a matter of, for me, zooming out on the charts. And the biggest point is just if you're out there, manage your risk
in this market. And that is just one thing that is 100% always true. Just manage risk.
So here's Ethereum. Ethereum, what I wanted to discuss was, so it's down 50%, it's crazy.
Ethereum down 56%.
ADA outperforming Ethereum is so interesting.
I think that deserves just a video of its own.
But let's get a little update on Ethereum charts
because I think it was yesterday
I discussed Ethereum briefly,
but you can see this still kind of playing out here, right?
This bullish divergence on the RSI has signaled historically,
like pretty consistently a bottoming out for Ethereum.
So as we kind of talk about finding a bottom on these charts,
and Ethereum could capitulate to as we kind of talk about finding a bottom on these charts, and Ethereum could capitulate to, as we're talking, or as we just saw on Bitcoin and altcoin charts. But if you just
look back historically, even here's 2023, lower, you can see back here on the chart, higher lows
on the RSI, lower lows on price. That was a bottom. It's crazy how much of a signal
this Ethereum chart can offer us
if we can have the kind of anticipation
and patience to realize how often this happens.
So that could be to say, you know,
Ethereum might break down, right?
And if it does, from this swing low to wherever the swing low is,
boom, are we still putting in a higher low of some sort, right? That will still be bullish
divergence. So you can see how it's hard to call a short-term bottom at any moment,
but I think the choppiness and bottoming formation is happening for Ethereum right now.
And what happens if we do bottom
and Ethereum pulls back to this triangle
as I've been just kind of discussing and anticipating?
What happens then?
Sentiment will shift.
It would be nice, actually.
It would be actually fun to do live streams.
to do videos again.
To do videos again.
Could you imagine?
Could you imagine?
Don't sell and you won't lose money.
Pretty simple.
That's not my financial advice,
but that's a great point.
You lose money when you sell.
Dollar cost averaging, lost more money you know
I actually recently put on
a DCA
in Coinbase on Bitcoin
I'm pretty sure I've lost money
on that DCA but that's not what
DCA is about, everybody.
For me, anyway.
DCA is if you are DCAing, you're doing it because you're accumulating in uptrends and downtrends,
and you have a kind of macro approach to these markets.
That's my view,
right? So like if you start DCAing here and you're down here, I don't think it's a good idea to be
like, I lost, I lost, I'm done with crypto. I just don't think it's a good idea. And this entire
video, all my videos explain why that is. All right, let's get to the very unpopular
elephant in the room.
Dog is one of the safest memes in the space.
What's insane is how,
and it's very hard to explain,
but how much I agree with that
while the chart looks like this.
I want to speak to dog
because I've been covering dog
on the YouTube channel for quite some time now. What's funny is when we go from here to here,
almost a billion, I don't get any comments about how great, that was awesome. I took profit. Let's
go. We're winning. But when we go from here to here, it's like,
that's all I get is dog comments and how I shield dog. Here's the deal. Anytime I talk about meme
coins on the channel, I say, everybody just be ready for massive, absolute dips, right? 80% dips.
And right now dog is going through it. I'm still holding my dog. It's still one of my
top plays for the bull market that I think is coming. But when I go into something like dog,
I'm doing it for the bull market. I want you to understand that, right? So if I'm covering dog
here and then I'm covering dog here and here and then here and even here, in my mind,
we've not yet gotten the altcoin bull market. And this is why I hold dog. So my approach is
I'm just going to hold my meme coins until the bull market. And I've realized how messy it's
going to get if it's going to get messy and it has. That's just my approach. So I don't think we've gotten an altcoin bull market.
ADA charts, Ethereum charts signal this very much. Memecoin charts are going to be even more brutal.
That's crypto. That is exactly the way it's been over cycles. And that's the way it is this cycle.
But I will tell you one thing. Dog on Bitcoin remains, as we just saw in that comment,
and I agree, the safest meme coin play. Number one, it's on Bitcoin. Number two,
it's decentralized. It was a fair and free launch. And when it starts getting listed on tier ones,
which I really do think it's going to happen, and it'll be a domino effect. It's going to be a domino effect when it happens.
The mass amounts of volume that comes into dog in a bull market will send this thing flying through the billions. I think that so unpopular to say right now, I realize, but again, I lean
into the pain. This is something I've already come to terms with, riding the volatility of dog. I've rode
the volatility of dog so much, right? So I'm going to continue to stand by that.
But that's a dog chart. I want to look at XRP chart sitting at around $2. If I go to a daily chart,
it's crazy.
What's a daily RSI looking like?
Kind of like a similar vibe,
not really,
a little bit from the swing low back here
to the swing low on the RSI.
I'm very much looking at RSI's lately
because if we get a short-term bottom
and bounce, we could have some bullish divergence signals happening. And so something like this is
I think important to look at on all of these charts, but here on the XRP chart,
just brutal, right? But again, I can look at any of these charts and I remember just talking about
targets to the upside. And for me, targets to the upside become even more
likely. And it sounds crazy because we've dipped a lot and there's so much pain and fear.
But as we've been overbought and now we've cooled down to oversold. We've cooled down to high fear with the macroeconomic landscape,
with the Fed pivots, with the dollar falling, with yields falling.
The next move up for crypto can be very nice.
So my targets remain in play for XRP for whenever that will be. The first cycle, one, six, one,
eight, that was never hit around $5. And then a third cycle, higher high around $8, $8 to $10.
These are still my targets in play for XRP. It's at $2 and it is what it is. It was at three,
And it is what it is.
It was at 330 XRP.
So we just saw ADA is down 52%.
Ethereum is down 56%.
XRP down 41%.
So XRP holding up a little bit better than Ethereum and ADA.
But it's crypto.
Welcome to crypto.
As soon as they turn the printer on, most tokens will run.
I agree.
And even like a more toned down thought along those lines, double down dog, is like, even when I have the FedNet liquidity indicator on the screen, even when, look at this.
It's crazy too.
I mean, XRP, all coins in general, that November move, they really diverge
from FedNet liquidity. But even when quantitative tightening really starts slowing down,
we could start seeing an uptrend in FedNet liquidity. We don't need this immediate,
to get the ball rolling, we don't even need this immediate drone pal announces quantitative easing,
you know, money printers in full-blown effect.
Just kind of the beginning, getting the ball rolling can have a drastically good impact
on markets. And such a good example of that is S&P 500 back here, 2018 bear market bottom,
coming out of that bottom, we were getting Fed policy
reassurance.
That's where the bounce came from.
Do you see the similarities right now?
If you can zoom out and focus on kind of this picture and this narrative that's happening,
this is what's happening now.
Maybe not as much as we would like, even tomorrow.
I don't know how much reassurance Jerome Powell is going to give in terms of Fed policy pivoting and quantitative tightening slowing down. But that's what was happening right here. That was the bottom of that move.
Trump with all of the tariff stuff back then too. More aggressively so now, yes. But we have these
two things happening right now as we're falling. This looked terrible back then. Recession,
absolute, absolute continuation of the bear market. Then the bottom was in.
bottom was in. It's exactly the same right now. Recession, bear market, it's all over.
And I'm not saying we don't go lower, okay? But I'm just saying over the coming weeks,
I think it's a good idea to pay attention on all of this macro data.
So these are my thoughts.
Yeah,
stay away from,
stay away from,
out from,
influencer altcoins,
which is almost
every meme coin.
Especially,
you look at these meme coins
that Binance is listing.
It's just crazy.
Such manipulation.
So much manipulation and insider stuff going on.
Many would say crypto is done.
I do not.
I do not think so.
God is good.
Amen.
Amen to that. Dog is an. Amen. Amen to that.
Dog is an influencer coin.
100% not. Dog is not an influencer coin at all.
Dog was a completely 100% free, fair launch.
You look at the distribution, it's insane.
It shares the ethos of Bitcoin
and is a standalone meme coin.
So it's not an influencer coin, everybody.
Which is one of the things that gets me so hype about it.
Because when it runs organically with the all coin bull market, it will do something
that we've not seen in a meme coin.
I'll say that right now, even as we're down so much.
even as we're down so much. Everybody, zoom out on the charts. Hang in there.
Truly hang in there. Let's see what happens. There's a lot going on in markets. Powell speaking
tomorrow, jobs reports, all of this. Be prepared for all of these targets to the downside that we just looked at on Bitcoin, ADA,
just the altcoin chart in general.
Be prepared.
And if you're out there right now,
you're not a subscriber, please subscribe.
I want to let you know, I'm here.
I'm here in the crashes.
This is how it's been over the years.
I've committed to be here on terrible red days,
even when engagement's terrible and sentiment is terrible years i've committed to be here on terrible red days even when engagement's terrible and sentiment is terrible i've committed to be here and i am here on the parabolic days as well you know that because we have some we have some real fun with
those live streams so zoom out is is the best approach in these markets if you're not a
subscriber please subscribe uh turn the notifications on. And if
you enjoyed the video on your way out, please smash that like button. That support means a
ton to me. I'll see you in the next video. God bless.
