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tastycrypto Show - Crypto Market Perspective
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 0:32:32Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion on the Tasty Crypto Show, hosts Ryan Grace and Katie McGarrigal explored the current state of the crypto market, highlighting Ethereum's significant price decline, the introduction of innovative trading tools by Tasty Trade, and the growing interest in crypto trading education. They emphasized the importance of adapting to market volatility and the potential for substantial returns in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
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Tasty Trade. all right we're back.
Tasty Crypto Show.
I'm Ryan Grace.
With me today, across from me, Katie McGarrigal.
Wizard Katie.
Jedi Katie.
Viking Katie.
Viking Katie.
Ninja Katie.
Hell yeah.
I'm not ninja yet.
Okay, I work on that.
I aspire to be.
Aspiring ninja.
Yeah, and also bad trader Katie., bad trader, Katie, as the
markets have indicated crazy, crazy day. How's your, do you have adrenal fatigue? No, not
really. No, you just live in a constant state of just like depleting your cortisol at every
level. Cause I feel like I do that too. Yeah. Um, I don't know. I mean, most of my positions for some time, I need to get back
into trading. Honestly, I haven't really been an active trader as much as I used to be. So most of
my positions are all like just in crypto long-term investments. And I'm fortunate enough to be in it
at like lower levels where I think sometimes as a result, like, you know, I look
at Bitcoin, I think we're still up double digits in the last year. So when you have some of that
performance, then the swings from 100 to 80 or 70 or wherever we are right now, they don't feel as
bad. Don't get me wrong. I'm long ETH at much higher prices here. We're going to talk about
ETH in just a second today, but I have a, an iron gut, I guess, a stomach for the volatility.
Yeah.
It was fun last night, though, when it opened and into the close on Friday as well.
I'm ready to jump back in.
Are you?
Yeah.
It's funny you say that because Bar Rescue is a show that is watched in my household.
Not to my, I don't like it.
I don't like John Taffer.
Sorry.
As if John Taffer's watching.
They fix a bar, like help it get profitable or whatever.
Yeah, but nothing, my anxiety last night was listening to John Taffer talk about how disgusting someone's kitchen is.
And then you pile on spoo's being
down 180 on top of it and i was just sleeping like this yeah how are you doing today um you know
we're good we're hanging in there i mean like you said i think it's just interesting because
when i was first learning how to trade for several years, there was no volatility.
And then 2020 happened and then 2021 happened. And then there was kind of a little bit of a lull,
like maybe some geopolitical stuff. And then now it feels like 2020 again.
Liberation day.
Yes, yes. And so, you know, I think the most important thing that we talk about day in and day out is controlling your size.
And luckily, I'm still a pretty small size trader, so I'm relatively OK.
But it's it's wild to watch the markets just rip and dip.
And yeah, it's crazy. And we've got a ton of people watching.
So shout out to them. Hopefully they're
in the same boat. Maybe not. Maybe they're having better trades than we are.
Shout out to the chat. If you're not streaming this on YouTube, get over to YouTube. Tasty
Live is the channel. Of course, type something crazy shit into the chat. We love to see it.
Thanks for everybody showing up here today. If you have any questions, we'll try our best to
address them to the best of our ability, I suppose, during the show. I'm happy to go anywhere, Katie.
We can throw up charts looking at the S&P, VIX. Obviously, we saw some volatility levels that we
haven't seen in quite some time, like you mentioned, which makes it hard to stay small
when the VIX is 60, right? And the S&P is whipped around 4% intraday. Even the micros are pretty
big. But let's run through our crypto-related charts here. If you caught OTCL earlier today,
this will be a little bit of a rerun around some of the performance. Obviously, not much
has changed intraday. You got a little bit of a bounce. I want to talk about Ethereum as well.
Ethereum is down like 60% in three months. How do we think about
it? I'm calling this sad ETH. So I want to look at it from the kind of historical perspective
and then kind of just go anywhere you want. But yeah.
Because like, I think, you know, I'm still new to this, right? Like I really only started to
mess with this when you and I first started the show together in the late fall. I've got some, a little bit of Bitcoin, a little bit
of ETH, a little bit of Solana, a couple of like shit coin types of things, but I'm still a baby
when it comes to this. So I would love to hear the story of why ETH is sad. Oh, well, it's sad
because it's down 60%. Well, on top, what are the factors that is layering into that?
Absolutely.
And I got to shout out Theta Trader here, lunatic feces in the chat.
I like that.
That's some crazy shit.
Oh, a little fun play on words there.
Absolutely.
All right.
Let's throw up the slides, please.
And let's take a look.
There's you and me, Katie.
Oh, yeah.
Look at a little roller coaster.
Yeah.
Do you like roller coasters?
I do.
Yeah.
Me too.
Yeah.
Cedar Point.
Shout out to Sandusky, Ohio.
I've never been.
Oh, it's awesome.
I've never been.
I mean, I've done like all the other, like just major like spots or whatever, but I've
never done Cedar Point.
Okay.
I haven't been there probably a decade.
Yeah.
Time to go back. I know. We'll have to do a little tasty trip. I think though,
like the one thing that's always funny is like when you're in the lines for those types of things,
first off, like does everybody just have to pay for a fast pass now in order to not wait for like
three hours for one ride? I guess so. I didn't know of that or maybe it's always been a thing,
but I wasn't aware of it being a thing before when I was going.
Yeah.
But I would, I would pay now though.
Yeah.
I haven't been on any roller coasters in a while.
The last ones I were on were like at, um, Harry Potter world or wizarding world.
Okay.
Yeah. Yeah.
Worse.
And frankly, I was a little concerned cause I got like really dizzy afterwards and I'm
like, Oh man, am I like developing like an inner ear thing?
And my like older age could be.
So I hope I still like roller coasters.
Well, this summer you got to get to Cedar Point.
Oh my God.
Yes.
Okay.
Group trip.
Tasty trip.
I'm down.
All right.
We can always go to Great America too.
Right around the block up a couple, you know, just to the north of us.
It's been years.
I'll go wherever.
Hell yeah. Love it. We are on a roller coaster right now. Let's take a look at the market here.
I've got a slightly lower spot price for Bitcoin at $78,800. But when we put this together,
$79,000 red across the board with the exception of XRP on a relative basis year to date versus
Bitcoin, it is up slightly. Realized vols have come down
a little bit, Katie, but still elevated. ETH vol popped up into the 80s here today. We'll take a
look at that in just a second. Nothing has changed here. A couple of weeks ago, we saw
what looked like possibly a transition from bearish to neutral and then slammed right back down.
I think one thing I would note is that we are still relatively constructive on longer term time frames.
I think when you look at Bitcoin, it's held up to some extent versus certainly the rest of the crypto market
and it's held up in the face of some of this crazy volatility we've seen in equities.
But it has been trading lower since February.
Coming back down to what was around the prior high from the last cycle,
or from where we were when we broke out ahead of the election.
So that'll put you down in the low 70s, which is what's implied by the expected move.
So let's take a look at that.
Bitcoin, $79,000. ETH,, 1,500, Litecoin, 72, the rest of them up here, Solana, hanging on to $100 right now.
But you just look at the three-month performance in here and it's been absolutely terrible.
That said, this is par for the course in crypto. Live by the sword, die by the sword. You do
experience these levels of volatility at times, which we'll focus on here
in just a second. This is nothing new. Okay. Yeah. Taking a little bit of heat in my very baby
crypto positions. So, all right, here we got expected moves. Okay. Talk me through this.
Yeah. Nothing out of the ordinary here. These are actually a little bit lower
in percentage terms when you look at it for Bitcoin, ETH, right around a little bit lower in percentage terms when you look at it for Bitcoin.
ETH, right around a little bit over a 10% move here.
But Bitcoin has you going back down to 73 on the downside.
85 on the upside is the current weekly expected move.
And that's just going to take the spot price and the current implied volatility.
Same thing for ETH.
So we are, again, short-term, intermediate-term,
bearish here. There's no way around it. We've got $1,407 on the downside for ETH, $1,700 on the
upside. So if you've been following this week over week, these ranges have been moving lower,
obviously, with price, but smaller expected moves now, given the volatility hasn't popped
too much and the price has come down. Looking for a $14, $15 move in Solana, low end of the range, takes you back underneath $100.
That said, this can all change in an instant.
And we had a flash of that earlier today.
Headline came out.
I think there was an interview on TV that was maybe misinterpreted.
But they ran the headline on Twitter.
And it was basically
90 day pause in tariffs. And you saw the response in the market. Yeah. Like 8%. The whole desk just
went from being like relatively silent and not somber isn't the right word, but tall.
Like it was palpable. Yeah. I mean, Bitcoin went back to 81 or so. So I think you kind of have a
sense of what the response is going to look like should
you get some relief there on that headline risk front. It's just whether that comes anytime soon
or not is really the question. I personally don't think that this is going to last forever.
Could there be a lot more downside in the meantime? Absolutely. But I do think that you
probably get some negotiations. You probably see those headlines. And that's what makes this market
really tough too, because when you have the VIX at 60 or 50, you're going to have these massive intraday moves.
And as much as the short trade has worked, you're susceptible to just that face ripper of a rally that could happen in an instant.
So it's a challenging environment, to say the least.
But these are the expected moves that we go off of.
If you are buying the dip, I would look to just take a little bit off the table if you do see this trade back up into the
top end of any of these ranges. If I bought 70s, low 70s, mid 70s earlier, and I get that ripper
today, or we see this trade higher, unless something has structurally changed and we see
that in the signals, I would look to unload some of that position.
Okay.
Cover short to the downside of the range.
Okay.
So something that we've talked about in the past is that, and I'm not trying to paraphrase your words,
but we have equated elements of trading gold with elements of trading, particularly Bitcoin.
Elements of trading gold with elements of trading, particularly Bitcoin.
And obviously, like gold has been on like a massive run.
Obviously, a couple of days of correction here, just kind of following what else is going on in the market.
But like you would never say, and it's clearly evident in this moment, at least, that like crypto products are not safe haven products.
products are not safe haven products. No, absolutely not. Same way, even though you might
No, absolutely not.
call like crypto the digital gold, it's never going to be like a flight to quality safe haven
type of product. Am I correct? I think you're absolutely correct. I think you could see Bitcoin
as a flight to safety within the crypto market if you want to look at it that way from a kind
of volatility perspective. And that's indicated by Bitcoin market cap dominance at 63 or so right now.
But this is how I would think about it, right? The digital gold analogy is just an easy way to explain Bitcoin. It's a starting point for a lot of people that are new to what this is,
because there's still people that struggle with, like, I can't hold it, I can't touch it,
it's not real, what is it good for, et cetera, et cetera. It's a value transfer mechanism on the internet. So I think intrinsically
that's valuable, but without getting too far into the weeds, it has similar characteristics
to gold. So people call it digital gold. But when you think about how this trades in the market,
I think you almost have to kind of flip it upside down. People think a gold is a commodity,
trades a lot more like a currency. Bitcoin is called a cryptocurrency. It trades a lot more
like a commodity. So when you look at what drives gold prices, historically, and I think it's true
when we look at what's going on here today in terms of almost at all-time highs, pulling back off of the top there. Gold is a non-yield bearing asset.
So gold trades off of rates, real yields specifically, so discounting for inflation.
So when you have falling real yields, gold tends to do pretty well. When you look at it as a
currency priced in dollars and the dollar is weakening, gold tends to do pretty well.
In this macro environment, it's absolutely and should come as no surprise that gold is trading as well as it's trading for those exact reasons.
Now, on the flip side, Bitcoin can benefit from liquidity in the marketplace.
It can benefit from lower interest rates, zero interest rates, open market operations out of the Fed, but it's not gold. It just has never traded like that.
It's a high beta risk asset. I would think of it more like a long duration tech stock.
So this does well as a currency debasement hedge over long periods of time. Gold might do well
debasement hedge over long periods of time. Gold might do well in the same way. But in a market
where you see the VIX go from 20 to 50- Yeah. There's nowhere really to hide.
No. I don't think, let's buy Bitcoin. I don't think that's the trade. I think, again,
longer term, what this has benefited from has been zero interest rate policy,
open market operations, the Fed's buying treasury bonds,
it's buying mortgages. You're seeing the balance sheet expansion, you're seeing purchasing power
declines. And so this isn't something where even from the inflation perspective, you say, oh, CPI
was higher last month and Bitcoin should be higher. Absolutely not. This is a hedge to
currency debasement and not just dollar debasement, but you look at this globally as a hedge too. I think there's reasons to own it as
a hard asset. But in a volatile market environment, it's going to get smoked as it has in this
environment. Yeah. Well said. Sub-Zero says Bitcoin's going to 69,000? Not out of the realm of possibility. It easily could, right? I think,
again, this is an asset that trades at a 60, 70 vol and sometimes much, much higher. So yeah,
it could go to 60 and it could go, I think the trade is probably somewhere between 50 and 150.
If it's a hundred thousand dollars, that's the way that I would think about it. Um, yeah, like looking at the options chains right now, it's like 45%
probability of touch 69,000. Yeah. Yeah. Great stuff. Okay. Thank you for answering that because
I think that's been something that, you know, when everything is happening in the way that it's been happening,
you start to just kind of question and pick apart your toolbox.
What's been working? What hasn't been working?
Where should I be considering that I might not be fully considering?
So I thought it was kind of an appropriate time to clarify, you know, what you meant when you said that.
And I think your description of describing it almost
like the opposite of a commodity or behaving more like a commodity and gold actually behaving more
like a currency is really, really interesting. Yeah, that's kind of how I would think about it,
at least. Yeah. And I see Eric's saying, isn't the balance sheet shrinking? Absolutely. We've
been undergoing quantitative tightening. So balance sheet reduction as a result of that.
I think assets in general are forward-looking, and so there will be a point in time where we get out of this macro environment,
and let's put tariffs aside. I think you get some resolution there, some clarity around something.
But you move forward into one that maybe is more stagflationary.
Whatever that looks like, getting out of this environment should be generally a positive for crypto. Bitcoin historically has done well
in those environments. This one, not so much. And that's true of the NASDAQ as well.
Yeah. So tell me then a little bit more about ETH. Why is that let's just, yeah, we'll jump. So I mean, ETH has just been absolutely destroyed
over the last few months here. It's down 57% right now. It's down over 25% in the last month.
It's down over 50% here to date, down 50% on a one-year basis. So I thought for today's show,
Katie, last 10 minutes that we have here, we would just look at this in more detail.
Is 50% on a year basis out of the ordinary?
Should I be buying the dip?
You know.
I mean, I know we just talked about it.
Carry on.
I think, I mean, look, there's, I think there's some indicators that you probably have very oversold conditions.
Does that mean that today, right here, right now, you should buy it?
I don't know. You're closer to the bottom, I think, than not. But could you trade back under
$1,500? Maybe. I don't know. I think with some of this stuff, and I mentioned this earlier on
the network, it's like, if you're playing for the long term, and I don't know if that's a year,
it's two years, whatever, it's not as relevant
if you buy Bitcoin at 72 or 70 or 69 or whatever it might be. Not if you're trading the short term,
absolutely. But longer term, you're probably less price sensitive. That said, how do we think about
this? So ETH, sad ETH, has experienced a 50% or more drawdown in seven of the last nine years.
has experienced a 50% or more drawdown in seven of the last nine years.
And absolutely, we need to take into consideration the fact that nine years ago,
the nominal value of ETH was a lot lower than 1,500.
So take that into consideration.
But when we just look at this in percentage terms, how frequently does this happen?
Is this like a once in a decade event where the
price of ETH crashes by 50%? If that happened in the S&P, you would say, absolutely. But in ETH,
it seems to happen all the time. In crypto, this stuff goes down 80%, goes up 400%. I don't know,
it's extremely volatile. I think you see that change. It matures, it evolves over time.
But this happened quite a bit. So seven of the
last nine years, we've seen a 50% or more decline in the price. What happens after the fact?
Doesn't mean that it's going to happen in the future. But what have we observed?
One month doesn't really do anything. Maybe it goes lower. You need to give this some time.
These things crash. then they base,
they consolidate, and then maybe there's a catalyst that goes higher. But what's interesting
to me about this is that on average, after this occurs, it goes up. No surprise, right? And that
doesn't help anybody that owned it at much higher prices, but it's violent to the upside just as
well. And I think speaks to, okay, how do you
think about the current move? If you weren't in the trade, is there an opportunity here?
Possibly, because when it goes down by this much, on average, on a three-month basis,
it returns about 30%. You look at that in a longer time horizon, you look at that into the back half possibly of this year,
and a lot can change from now to then. On average, this has gone up 100%. It's doubled in price.
So could we get back from 1,500 to 3,000 by the end of the year? I think that's completely within the realm of possibilities. So just wanted to look at this and try to put
some context around the move. Got a few more slides just to run
through here. You think about, okay, 50% drawdown. That's very, very volatile. So what is Ethereum's
annualized volatility by year? Go back to 2020. Here's where we are. 23, stuck in the mud. That
was post FTX collapse. Crypto markets bottomed out and just traded sideways as they do.
And so I think it's encouraging that we're seeing more volatility. A lot of times we see
bigger upside moves in some of this stuff than we do downside moves. So you want to see that
observed when you look at volatility. So we are right now running at a 67% annualized vol,
and that's picked up from 23, but we're nowhere
near where we were when, you know, you were really ripping higher last time. I think we got to 4,500
close to it in 2021. It also has a lot of potential for outsized returns. And that's what I think is
attractive about this asset class. Like again, live by the sword, die by the sword. You have to
have a stomach for the volatility and we're not going to shy away from that. But this has a tail and it's a right tail.
Yeah. And so you look at, again, you go back, okay, you had a much lower nominal prices at times.
So I'm talking about something going up, you know, a hundred percent, it could have gone from 800 to 1600, like entirely possible. But we do observe
that there's a high frequency of these larger upside moves. And sometimes there's these much
bigger upside moves than the downside moves, right? We don't have any, and these are weekly
percentage returns. So you have some that are 40, 50, 60% in just a week. Not calling for that by
any means. I love the smirk on your face. It's what we've seen in the past. Well, it's just,
this is what I love about this asset is because there is this degree of asymmetry, especially if
you can get into a trade and it's tough. If you had everything in this at 3,000, you don't have
anything left. Yeah. You can't load the boat necessarily. But if you have cash to put to
work or you were trading around in here, that's the thing that I love about this stuff. And I'm
not saying that this is true of every crypto asset, but you see something similar in the
return profile, Bitcoin, of Ethereum, of Solana. Some of this hasn't been around that long,
but looking at ETH, there is a right tail. Yeah. Okay. A couple more for you before we wrap things up.
So just looking at, and this is, again, the weekly performance.
We're going back over the last three years trying to remove some of those lower nominal prices.
And you look at the biggest weekly returns and the worst weekly returns, so the best and worst weekly returns here.
And so you can see that over the last three years, probably a bit of a normal distribution
to some extent, as you might expect. But you can see 25, 30% in a week, just like we've witnessed
here recently to the downside. Some of these coming recently, if you go back to the beginning of March here,
2025, you know, almost 20% down for the week. Looking at just this year, here's where we are.
So here's that move that I was talking about. And then, you know, putting weekly moves in
perspective, some of what we've seen recently, just this week for the most part, right, down on almost another 15%.
So recently the downside moves have been a lot larger than the upside moves.
But again, over time, there's certainly the potential for some outsized gains in ETH.
certainly the potential for some outsized gains in ETH.
But like you're saying, I mean, if you are,
I think the thing that I'm picking up from doing this with you is just,
you need to be able to have an iron gut and or build tolerance towards an iron gut
and or be okay with weathering some volatility.
One way to approach that is to not load the boat at one price at one
time. Think about small incremental purchases, nibbles, whatever you want to call them,
as time just goes out. And also, for me personally, being an options and futures trader in a shorter
time frame, I saw somebody in the chat said something about like learning trading on a dedicated show.
I do that already, but I like this and talking to you about this so much because this is like the investment area that I just haven't really even scratched the surface on as much just because I've been so indoctrinated is not the right word.
But like I grew up trading with Tom and Tony on this show for the past 12 years now, which is insane. Um, so I'm, I'm just loving thinking about
approaching my time horizons a little bit differently than I think I have learning
how to trade futures and futures options. Yeah. And I think you want to diversify
in that sense across timeframes and not just across asset classes or even in terms of like
your approach to trading, right? You want to do some futures trading. You want some longer term
investments. You want some option strategies, obviously. You probably don't want to go as
crazy as me and kind of jump in headfirst here. Yeah. I do think this is a big macro trade,
but macro trades take a long time.
This has been, for me, a multi-year trade, to say the least.
But I think when you look at the return profile here, and we've talked about this as it applies to Bitcoin,
but you want some of this in your portfolio.
And I don't know what that allocation looks like for everybody.
Maybe it's 1%, it's half a percent, it's 5%. I don't know. But I think, again, given the return profile and the uncorrelated, for the most part,
certainly when we see these types of volatility or these types of moves in the market,
you're not going to be immune from that in crypto at all. Quite often you see that crypto is going
to front run that. But just given the potential for
the upside and the uncorrelated nature of it, I think you want some of this at this stage in your
portfolio. And when you look for those opportunities to add to those positions, maybe it is waiting
until you get that 50%, 60% drawdown. And could it go down a bit more? Absolutely. But historically, these have been
decent entry points for trades or for investments. If you're looking at holding onto this for,
like we showed, three months, six months, maybe a year. More plus.
But the key is you want to harvest gains at times too, right? If this thing is going to trade 15
to three or two to four in terms of the range, and you were buying some at 2000,
maybe it goes a lot higher. I don't know. But if it does get to four, probably want to take some
profits. All right. Last really quick question for you. Just knowing the volatility and everything
we're kind of experiencing just across every market, liquidity pools right now. Are you participating?
Are you hands off because there's just too much velocity? What is your approach there?
I'm participating, but in the sense that most of my pools, I think all of my pools on this recent
move are out of range. Got it. Yeah. So I'm long ETH versus coming in initially 50% dollars, 50% ETH, and making markets in there
via that mechanism. I'm happy with, I guess, not happy with that, but fine holding the ETH position
and let's see if we get a bounce or some of these pools go back in range and activate again,
but not managing them. I think that's another way to approach this, right? You limit your upside in
the same way that you limit your upside with a covered call. But if you want to enter the market
here and you're thinking, okay, 1,500 is a decent level and I might make my range 1,000 and 2,000
on the upside. So $500 a side, the volatility that's occurring and the, you know, the trading volumes in here should be pretty
lucrative, um, for those pools. It just sucks if you had a pool like I did where my ETH price was
like, I think the bottom of my range is probably like 1800 and you blow up, you know, overnight
last night, it goes down to 1400 or whatever. Yeah. So I'm hanging out of the position, but yeah,
I think this is an environment in which like you're implicitly short vol and you want to take advantage of high trading volumes.
That's not any different than like, hey, the VIX is at 60 and I want to sell a strangle.
Okay, well, that could present an opportunity, but you need to be aware that this thing is
going to move. It's not a 60 vol for no reason. You're not selling a straddle. I mean,
yeah, it's not like, oh, you know, I'm selling high IV and it's, it's not going to move around.
No, you're going to get three to 4% intraday moves. So you have to be aware of that. But yeah,
definitely. Um, I think there's opportunities for it right now.
Beautiful. Well, thank you for the explanation.
Yeah. Thank you.
What I shall do, uh, as I approach ETH the next go around? But thank you for everybody else in the chat watching.
Lots of new people the last couple of days.
We really appreciate all the support that we're getting.
And stick around.
Subscribe to the channel.
Come to the site.
Head to Tasty Trade.
Job security, y'all.
Job security.
Hell yeah.
We'll be back on Wednesday.
Until then, I'm Ryan.
I'm Katie.
Peace.
Peace. Peace.
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