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TESLA EARNINGS DEEP DIVE 🔋$TSLA TUESDAY!!
Recorded: July 22, 2025 Duration: 0:58:24Space Recording
Short Summary
Tesla's upcoming earnings report is generating buzz with expectations of $22.61 billion in revenue and $0.37 EPS, while the launch of the Tesla Diner showcases innovative customer engagement through robotics. As the company pivots towards AI and robotics, investors are optimistic about future growth and profitability.
Full Transcription
okie dokie welcome in everybody it is a big day in the world of tesla be aware Tesla earnings on the calendar for tomorrow so we're gonna go ahead and we're going
to update this to a Tesla earnings preview that's what we're gonna be talking today on spaces penny
how's everything going I'm well I am in the car doing some moving around of my daughters right now, but I'm excited to hear the preview.
I'm excited to hear everyone's experiences with the diner as well.
A lot going on with Tesla right now.
Yes, we will talk about the diner as well.
Hope the diner will come into the space today and share some thoughts with us.
Let's take a look real
quick at everything that is going on tesla today up 0.91 after dropping about two percent earlier
in the day it's rebounded completely and is trading at 331.55 it is pretty flat on the past
month it is down one five 15% year to date.
There's Omar Perfect.
Come talk to us about that diner.
Quick expectations for those looking at Tesla earnings tomorrow.
Tesla is expected.
These are the expectations to report at 4.07 p.m. on Wednesday, July 23rd.
Revenue expectation is $22.61 billion. EPS expectation is 0.37.
Reminder on revenue, this is definitely a dropdown, right? People are switching some of their
expectations from last year's Q2 of 2024, where the expectation was 24.73. And if people remember, we beat that expectation
with revenue of $25.5 billion in Q2 of 2024. Now the expectations have significantly lowered.
We have not had a beat since that Q2 on revenue. It has missed the last three quarters.
So looking for a beat here today, obviously having lower expectations helps with getting
beats.
EPS, similar story.
We have not had a back-to-back beat on EPS since Q2 and Q1 of 2023.
It's only beat once since then.
So it has been one out of the last seven quarters that
we have beat on EPS. There's something to be paying attention to there. EPS, again, we've
lowered expectations. In Q2 of 2024, it was $0.62. Now it is $0.37. So something to continue to be
aware of as we get towards earnings. There will probably be a lot of updates as well.
Say.com already live right now.
For those who have been looking, you can actually throw a shareholder question in right now if you want.
You can do it through Robinhood.
The number one question right now by upvotes of 3.8k upvotes and 2.2 million shares represented is,
upvotes and 2.2 million shares represented is can you give us some insights how robo taxis have been
performing so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities,
and supervisors? So the number one question is not about revenue. It's not about EPS. It is about
robo taxi. Number two question is in a similar area, 2.4 thousand upvotes, 1.8 million shares represented.
What are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use, right?
We all know it's not just the robo taxis driving around on the road that are going to be robo taxis.
It's your car as well, right?
Shout out to Jacob Hilton, right, who posted the other day.
He bought a Tesla and he said, I can't believe I want a robo
taxi.
Uh, funny enough, he did not have FSD on in that picture.
Uh, then he turned it on right afterwards.
Um, so these are a couple of the ones just to go through, um, just to hit on the next
top three.
The third one is about optimists.
They asked what specific factory tasks optimists is currently performing and how Tesla envisions
optimists continuing contributing to revenue in the next two to three years and timeline for scaling. Number four is
about the more affordable models. This actually used to be the number one question, but it has
been surpassed by RoboTaxi since, with people asking for development and production timeline
on more affordable models, how they're going to balance out cost reduction with profitability,
and the impact on demand in the current economic climate. And that's pretty much most of it. I mean, all the
rest of the questions seem to revolve around those areas or hardware three, hardware four,
right? Some of those different pieces, hardware five coming in the future, and plenty more
Optimus. But we had an exciting time last night. The Tesla diner opened, and the attendees got to
get served by Optimus. I saw
Optimus serving Omar some popcorn. I saw other people, you know, having like light conversations,
not really a conversation, but it does seem like it talked to them and stuff like that.
Omar, you got a very good up close video of Optimus that you shared out. So I'm going to
turn it over to you first here. We've got a lot on the table here. Tesla Diner, which is exciting.
I appreciate you posting that menu as well.
And then, of course, earnings coming up tomorrow.
So a big time right now.
Yeah, it's definitely an exciting time.
I'm really excited for earnings this week.
Can you no more just get up?
This feels like morning voice.
Yeah. I mean, you know,? This feels like morning voice. Yeah.
I mean, you know, it's 9 a.m. here,
so I did just get up.
But yeah, I think it's a really exciting time.
It's earnings week.
And, you know, nobody's really expecting them
to pull out some massive beat in a financial sense.
But at the same time, nobody's looking at OpenAI and expecting them to pull out a massive beat either.
They just signed a deal with Oracle for data centers that is $30 billion, which is going to eclipse the revenue of the company.
You know, so $30 billion a year they're spending on data centers, more than their entire revenue,
just for that one line item. Forget about talent, forget about office space, forget about anything
else, right? And nobody's asking, well, you know, what's their EPS?
Nobody really worries about that.
The reason is there's massive investment happening in AI right now.
There's a massive talent war.
And everybody can see that this is a technology that is really going to shape the future in a way that we haven't seen since maybe the last industrial revolution when we started using machinery instead of human labor
to make goods and services. So Tesla is really shaping up to be playing a key role in this AI future.
And they're really bringing together the physical world and AI.
You know, we've got these great AI models,
Grok or ChatGPT or Claude or whatever you use,
and they can read your email.
They can search the web,
they can look at an image and tell you what's in it,
but they can't search your office.
They can't look on your desk and find a piece of paper.
You have to do that because you have a body.
You have to do that because you have a body.
You're in the physical world.
You're in the physical world.
They can't go to the store and pick something up for you.
So there's a huge need, I think, to bring together these cutting-edge AI models
and allow them to work with the physical world that we all live in.
and allow them to work with the physical world that we all live in and tesla is really emerging
as i think the company that's making that happen they're really the only mag 7 tech company
that has a massive manufacturing presence that runs factories all over the world four factories on three continents putting out
millions of vehicles the core auto business um i think has seen better days you know we're gonna
look at sales probably uh falling this year but you know this is kind of, I think, temporary trouble. What we saw yesterday really at the Tesla Diner is this is a company that has tremendous brand value.
People love this company.
If they put out a cheeseburger, people are lined up around the block to eat that cheeseburger.
You know, they are waking up.
Was it good, by the way?
Yeah, it was good.
You know, it wasn't like a life-changing cheeseburger.
It was a cheeseburger, right?
But still, people are waking up at 6 a.m.
They're lined up around the block.
They're waiting, you know, 10 hours in some cases to be the first to eat this cheeseburger.
So, you know, that was really kind of stunning to me.
I mean, I guess it shouldn't really be surprising,
but this is a company where people just absolutely love the products
and they were really excited to try out this new charging station.
So this is really why at a time where the core auto business isn't doing so hot, most of the topics are really around AI and robotics.
Everybody wants to know about the robo-taxi service.
They want to know about autonomy.
They want to know about Optimus.
These are really the things that the business is really focusing on.
And as these trends play out, they are going to make auto
sales irrelevant, but I think they'll also boost auto sales significantly as well. If you've got
a car that can go drive around, do things for you, a car that you can now talk to with Grok,
ask questions to, that I think is a product that is significantly differentiated from any
other car. You almost can't really call it a car anymore. So Tesla, with their sort of real-world
AI models, these AI models that run on the car, run on the Tesla inference chips, combined with what's going on at XAI, where they've
actually trained some of the smartest AI models in the world, you're starting to see a new
narrative play out where Tesla is actually the cheapest looking major Mag7 with its own
AI stack.
So that, I think, is what's really coming into focus here for investors.
A lot of the politics is fading into the rearview mirror, and people are really paying more attention
to what's happening at Tesla AI. So that's what I'm really excited about. You know, going to the
Tesla Diner yesterday, which is their new charging station and these charging stations are important for the future
as we have all these ai robots traveling around the world doing tasks for us doing jobs they're
going to need a place to go and charge and continue moving around so So this is, I think, the most fun charging station they've ever built.
It's open to Teslas. It's open to other UVs.
I think it's going to be kind of a great sales touchpoint.
And you actually saw them using their Optimus robot at the diner to serve people.
to serve people.
You know, just scoop some popcorn up and give it to them.
You know, just scoop some popcorn up and give it to them.
But, you know, it's easy to imagine a future where
a location like that could be completely staffed by Optimus robots.
So we saw something similar at their 1010 event last October.
But, you know, you see a lot of humanoid robot companies.
How many of them have ever done real-world interactions
with customers in a retail setting?
Not many.
Actually, I can't really think of any.
So they really have something incredible here with Optimus.
When you just see the way it moves, it's so lifelike.
I think it's really going to be their biggest product,
even more so than the robo-taxis, the cars,
anything related to the traditional auto business.
So I think this earnings call is really going to put Tesla AI into the focus.
Yeah, the auto business won't be great,
but the auto business for them, I think,
is really a launching off point to build a global autonomous network.
So I'm excited to hear from management any updates about what's going on,
how they plan to expand. Things are moving very fast. And I think investors have asked some great
questions for management that I'm excited to hear the answer to. Yeah, there's a lot of great
questions in there. Just from those top five that I talked about. Oh, I do want to address the controversy
that everybody's talking about.
Yes, I did leave in a Waymo from the Tesla Diner,
and I did take Waymo there,
but only because there was a huge line to get in.
And I showed up at 7 a.m.
They still had the fence up.
I was like, okay, I'm going back to bed.
So then I drove home.
And they said, all right, it's opening at 4.20 p.m.
So I took a Waymo back at 4.20 p.m.,
snuck to the front of the line,
got into Zach's car,
and went in with him.
And then took a Waymo home.
So I do like using Waymo.
Waymo's a great service.
You know, if you don't want to park and bring your car.
And take a driverless car.
I always try and do that instead of taking an Uber.
Gotta get some competitive intelligence too.
But yeah, I would have loved to take my Tesla with FSD.
But I didn't want to have to wait in line for like five hours.
So I showed up like five minutes before and snuck in with Zach.
So thank you to him for letting me sneak in his car.
All right.
Well,
we'll forgive you this one time.
One other quick question of those five top questions that I listed on
say.com,
you know,
between affordable model,
Robo taxi and optimist, where are you most intrigued?
Well, I think what I'm most excited about and most interested about is them bringing
their driverless technology to customer cars, even if it's just in Austin initially, you
know, to be able to go into the app and tell your car to go somewhere or even drive around
without the attention monitoring kind of beeping at you.
The technology is incredible, but while you still have to watch it, people are kind of annoyed.
Once you turn off that thing where they have to watch the road, everything changes.
Because everybody wants to use their phone, they want to do things.
And this is really something that's never been done.
I mean, Waymo obviously has a ton of driverless rides going on,
but they don't actually allow you to buy a car and
have your own car that's a driverless car.
And this is a need in the market that I think there's a lot of demand for.
I think if there was a self-driving car you could buy, a truly self-driving car, it can
go out and do things for you.
The demand for that is enormous.
There's a lot of people who want it. So if they can do it,
and I think they're very, very close to doing it, the robo-taxis we're seeing running in Austin
without a driver right now are the exact same cars they sell to customers. I mean, they even had
a car drive out of the factory to a customer's house. So the cars clearly have the capability.
Sometime in the next 12 months or so, they're going to be confident enough to start enabling
that on customer cars, at least in areas like Austin, certain cities where they're ready to
support it. And that's going to be a really significant milestone. So I'm excited to hear kind of the roadmap for them, how they see this
evolving. And yeah, I think there's a lot of really exciting milestones coming up.
Any obvious differences, Omar, between the version of Optimus that we saw at 10.10 and what you saw
at the diner in terms of like capabilities serving you and interacting with it could you tell they were
upgraded i also on that you i saw you asked if anyone knew if it was tele-operated or not i
didn't see if you got an answer to that yeah it's some people it seems like it might have been
tele-operated but some people that i was talking to there thought it was looked like it was operating more autonomously.
It seemed to be doing kind of some of the same actions like waving and, you know, holding
up a peace sign and everything.
But, you know, they also, I think, don't want to have the robot accidentally slap somebody
or punch a kid in the face or something.
So you got to be careful when
you're interacting with customers in that way. But it definitely does have very strong autonomous
capabilities. All of us obviously have ridden in Tesla vehicles. Our cars drive us around.
That same AI capability is in the humanoid robot as well.
It actually uses the same chips in our cars.
So I've no doubt that they could perform that task autonomously as well.
It's pretty simple.
You know, scoop up some popcorn and hand it to somebody.
I noticed that a couple pieces of popcorn were dropped there.
We're going to have to clean up on the sides.
We'll dock it to pay for that.
Yeah, exactly.
No charging for two hours.
Wait, you guys are getting paid?
Did you...
The Optimus.
Did you get a confirmation on...
No, sorry, that was a joke from the...
Whatever the movie was.
I apologize.
It's from Word the Millers. I got it. Yeah it yeah that is what i meant i didn't mean like yeah sorry
didn't hit like i thought from the dude with the eyebrows um okay uh last question for you
and then i'll rotate around you tweeted out asking if these were autonomous versus someone
controlling them in the back uh you mentioned you thought it looked a little bit more autonomous. Did you get any answers on that?
We didn't get any answers, which, you know,
I'm going to have to say it's probably teleoperated.
I think if it was fully autonomous, they would probably say that.
So I think it's safe to assume it's teleoperated
until we're told otherwise.
Cool, cool.
All right.
Popping around here.
I know there's a lot of people that were very excited.
Landon, I imagine you were pretty thrilled to see everything going on.
Wow, that was fun.
I love watching our friends get to see the newest from Tesla, even if it's a restaurant, right?
I mean, who would have thought? But yeah, that's really exciting. And then to hear Elon taking feedback on X from our
friends and family that are into Tesla and suggestions. Immediately, there was the suggestion
for a Tesla diner at Starbase. And Elon says, OK, if you've been down there,
it's not it's not much of a city. The newest city in Texas is there's really not much to it.
There's a lot of SpaceX buildings going up. They take them down when they're done with them. They
build new ones. There are the launch towers with the second pad being headed towards completion. But there's really not
a lot of facilities down there. So three miles from the headquarters at Starbase, you get out
to the launch pads, you get out to the beach, there's no restrooms, there's no hot dog stands.
And so yeah, this could be great for there. And then everybody's speculating,
hey, I want one over here. Let's have one over here. And Elon says we should have one of these in almost every state. And so that's kind of fun because I love watching these guys.
They're waiting all day to get in like it's an Apple iPhone event in 2012. And I'm here for it. That's really exciting. And right now, speaking of Tesla fans,
thousands of Tesla enthusiasts, owners, and stockholders are making their way to the San
Francisco SF Bay San Mateo Event Center this weekend, starting on Friday night.
event center this weekend starting on friday night john with silicon valley tesla owners group
puts on his big show the x takeover it's not just the tesla takeover anymore including support and
love for all of elon's companies spacex and he has got a showstopper of a lineup, not only of panelists, of the speakers that you
see on stage here, but people working for Tesla. We've got early investors in Tesla coming to speak
to us on stage. Steve Jurvetson, maybe you've heard of him. Lars Moravi, the unbelievable
designer at Tesla working on, not designer, he's the lead engineer putting all this stuff together.
You may have seen him showing you those Cybertruck panels and how they're made in the factory.
He's going to be in SF this weekend speaking at the X Takeover.
Friday night, they've got a huge light and drone show.
So why am I telling you all this?
This is brand power.
And this is people all over the world loving their products, loving the employees and the
Tesla team in particular.
And we get to go out and mix and mingle among them, among the influencers, the Tesla employees.
And this is really a mecca for us.
We're making our way out. I've got friends down on I-10, on I-40. There's people on I-70 right now,
I-80 up north, everybody funneling into the SF Bay area. And I'm here for it. I can't wait to
see all of you on stage out there. I hope the listeners,
I know so many of you are coming internationally. I better land this plane, but I can't wait to get
out there because this is such a huge part of my Tesla love is seeing everybody else that
appreciates this. It's not fighting with the bears. It's not arguing with Q. It's seeing our friends and family that know this is the future,
this is the present, and this is where they invest their money
to make their families rich in the coming days.
I'll be there, Landon, making my plans for the trip right now.
Yeah, all right.
That's what I'm talking about.
Can't wait to see everybody this weekend in San Mateo, California. Thank you, John. Thank you, Tesla. Owner, Silicon Valley. And we'll see you there.
the Jetsons that they threw on on the screen and the environment.
I saw that the Tesla charging account applied to Omar as well.
That's not as active an account as some of the others,
but cool to see them get in the mix too.
So yeah, it's kind of like a collaboration of several different areas.
So very interesting.
All right.
Cool stuff from Landon.
Let's go over to Ryan.
Yeah. Hey, Wolf. Thanks. Thanks for letting me speak.
I think, and so I'm excited for the X takeover. Also, I'm going to be there.
It's, it's kind of a nice time to be able to talk to people in person about all of Elon's companies,
show the support for him and the missions of, you know, what these companies are working on.
It's a different vibe to be meeting people in person versus just interacting with them online.
So that's going to be fun. And then Omar brought up a ton of great points for what Tesla is working
on. I'm also very excited about having customer cars be able to join the RoboTaxi network.
about having customer cars be able to join the RoboTaxi network.
That's, I mean, I've been thinking about how,
what I would do if I could have my car join the network.
Like, would I want to take on the responsibilities
that an Uber driver takes on,
or more specifically, the responsibilities
that a Turo owner takes on.
So like cleaning my car, potentially dealing with drunkards that are going to get in the car.
And then, you know, it's like, is it financially worth it?
And these types of considerations are things that owners across the United States are going to have to make within the coming years.
You know, fortunately, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration has considered doing federal regulations for allowing full self-driving to happen so like if that is allowable and we're able to blanket like across the united states
have teslas be able to join a robo taxi network and operate autonomously that would be huge
for the impact of like the the social, the environmental impact, the economic impact, just all across the board.
It's good for everybody.
And obviously the most important is the social slash safety impact.
So like that for the autonomy side,
that's extremely exciting and something that I'm looking forward to.
And then as far as the stock goes, I think my suspicion is that the energy business is what's continuing to keep the stock afloat.
Because vehicle sales have been down or bumping around for a while.
down or bumping around for a while. FSD, I think there's so many Wall Street analysts that
whenever they talk about it in their reports, they'll usually just mention it and be like,
yeah, this is cool. Now there are some that are coming around to it. So certainly there's gotta be some of that baked into the stock, but until we see financials hitting
the bottom line and growing,
it just doesn't seem like it's gonna have
as impactful of a effect on the stock.
For now, we do see those data points growing quickly
and profitably with the energy business.
So as more people are baking that into their models, those growth expectations will, you know, balloon what they think the value of the stock is.
So I think we're still like a compressed coiled spring right now.
I think we're still like a compressed coiled spring right now.
But as more people start to recognize these data points are going to be up and to the right and growing exponentially and immensely profitable, then I would expect the spring to end coil.
And as plenty of other analysts talk about, the longer the stock is flat, the more the run-up is going to be strong and powerful and rapid.
I think it's very, very likely that within the next two years,
the profitability is going to balloon and we'll see the stock
completely unravel in a good way.
So exciting times on all fronts and I'll pass it along.
Thanks, Wolf.
Thanks, Ryan.
Real quick before we do move along in terms of this earnings call tomorrow,
anything specific you'd really like to see
Elon and the team dive into?
It'd be fun if they talk very futuristically
about Opti, or I guess
moderately futuristically about Optimus
and give us a progress update
on what its functionalities are.
And then whether or not they're using it,
or like to what degree are they using it in the factories?
Because as many have mentioned on this panel
and prior calls,
Optimus is gonna be the biggest product.
And if we were talking about the impact to society in a proportional way,
and we were mentioning it as often as it's going to impact people,
we would almost only be talking about Optimus and FSD.
Because, gosh, Optimus just be a gigantic product.
And so if we get any updates on Optimus, that would be great.
I also want to hear about Tesla Semi.
I feel like that's such a sleeper product,
and it'll have a real impact on the sustainable future.
And also, if you pair FSD with Tesla Semi,
then like you transform truck drivers into truck operators.
And I think being a truck driver is the number one occupation in the U.S.
or at least top five.
So, you know, that would be a huge, a huge win because you like FSD just doesn't
get sleepy. I mean, it's really just all of the benefits that you or I would see using FSD, but
like times 10, because they're on the road a lot. And it's very important that they stay safe because of just the sheer size of the stuff that
they're hauling um and and they're going through a bunch of different environmental conditions with
snowy weather and uh sun glare and driving at all times of the day and night and uh yeah so it'd be cool if we also hear about semi
i expect energy to perform very well probably the best of any of tesla's businesses
uh charging infrastructure and just i think charging infrastructure falls under the services
category like they call it service and
forget what the other subcategory is but it falls under that line item and that
one I think will do pretty well too so you know some people will pay attention
to the vehicle business but really for that part of the business it's really
just about autonomy and as they roll that out like the business. It's really just about autonomy. And as they roll that out,
the profitability is going to be superb.
So I guess to answer your question,
excited about Optimus and Semi and Energy.
Wolf, can I add there one thing that you mentioned
about those questions on Say,
those retail investor questions,
I think we all are agreeing that they're a little bit better this time, some pretty decent
questions, and they are focused on those products where we all on this stage agree that the Tesla
future is in these things, not just in building cars. And I'd like to invite you and Ryan to look with me
once we get to the call at the investor questions. And I think we might start to see Wall Street get
it, but only when the investor questions are matching the retail questions that you're
talking about with Optimus and FSD and Robotaxi.
So I kind of don't expect all the investor questions
to match what our enthusiasm is for the future.
I expect him to still focus on cars.
What do you think about that, Wolf?
You know, me and Omar and Sawyer talked about it a lot.
And on our Gigacast episodes, we've kind of mentioned how it seems like he's less focused on cars. Like that was like a big passion for him, you know, five years ago was building and creating cars and that it's not exactly what makes him the most passionate nowadays.
shifted more into, you know, this autonomy, robotics, pieces along those lines. And those
are really what appeals to him. So I don't know, Lenin, I think that it could shift a little bit.
Yeah, I think, Lenin, you bring up a phenomenal point. And as they transition from vehicles to
just really, really dialing in that these are actually, at the end of the day, just robots.
really really dialing in that these are actually at the end of the day just robots uh you know
omar has talked about this too like they're basically have they have robots on four wheels
they have robots on two legs and eventually they'll it would make sense that they would have
flying robots in the form of drones and swimming robots in the form of like boats and other types of machines that they go on on water.
So, you know, these robots are really just computers that they're like, they're the best at.
They create large scale at volume, fantastic physical products that can navigate the real world.
fantastic physical products that can navigate the real world.
And that flywheel is continuing to improve as they get more data from all the miles driven.
Yeah, definitely a big day to play there as well.
Kristen, you want to jump into the conversation, share some of your thoughts and everything that's going on?
Yeah, I just flew back in from France last night and i kind of wish i flew into la
the hype on the tesla diner is exciting and seeing seeing some great video footage of people going
and coming there um looking it up 250 seats i think that might include sitting in your tesla
maybe with the 80 stalls but man that's a lot of that's a lot of seats or ability to serve people
and open 24
7 which is which is wild so i mean people are gonna have a hankering at two in the morning
they'll get a burger and fries or a milkshake which sounds delicious and fun um i want to try
it and i'm looking forward to trying and just listening to what everyone's saying about
the change of focusing on selling cars to moving forward to like we've got software as a service
we've got the you know we've got the power a service. We've got the, you know, we've got the power walls,
we've got optimists and seeing, you know,
the microchips and optimists moving forward.
I think just focusing on Tesla as a service,
providing services to masses.
I mean, that's kind of Tesla's mission was like to help humanity moving
forward with service, but here it is like doing this diner.
And Evelyn Janiti asks, you know, can you do one at Starbase,
which we're all hoping to see Starbase built out more for people coming you know we want to charge our Teslas and we go there
and watch the rocket launches but watching a Tesla diner going at Starbase is going to be exciting and
maybe more Tesla diners and see more Optimus bots you know probably running these diners and doing
other services so it's exciting and you know know, I think it was Omar who was saying
he jumped in a Waymo and went over there.
But, you know, it's going to be nice
when you can get the CyberCab or the Robotaxis
and go over there and not to use Waymo anymore.
I'm looking forward to that.
I'm also looking forward to doing the Robotaxi.
I think a handful, maybe of you guys have tried it,
but it looks exciting.
And I'm liking all the new software app updates
from Robotaxi to what I'm seeing with the user interface
for the Tesla Diner.
Very sharp.
It's obvious the team has been working really hard.
And I bet there's a whole lot more behind the scenes that's going to be released.
But it's just exciting as a customer.
I've got Teslas and I love everything that Tesla does.
And I think Elon hit it on the head with this old-fashioned diner.
You know, it's very nostalgic.
Looking forward to more.
And I'll be at the Tesla Takeover and looking forward to just seeing more new products that are complimentary to tesla and
and uh auxiliary what people offer and uh just meeting up with the community because this is a
great community yeah i want to hit on that last point community aspect because and maybe sort of
comments on this in a second you know there's now like a diner and they're also rolling out candy.
And it's a lot of things that are kind of like outside of necessarily the main focus mission.
So do you think, you know, what are the goals?
Or is it building community brands, just like kind of those pieces?
Boy, it, well, it feels like with Tesla doing Optimus, they can provide more things like that.
You know, if Elon's going to be building these Optimuses at scale and can do more manufacturing,
these are just some auxiliary things they can add to moving forward.
If population decline is happening, you know, and people aren't working and we want to make
the future enjoyable as we move forward, I think it's just some extra stuff they're doing.
I love that Elon makes things fun as it goes. And he really meets customers where they're at and their demand. And
here we are and we engage him on X and he listens to people and he puts out some fun stuff along the
way. So I think it definitely is moving forward with the AI. I think that's the most important
piece, but Optimus and all the other things moving forward from Grok and our Teslas is all
fun and part of it. But speaking of, I have not heard a lot of people say how the food tastes like how does the food taste i know it's
organic i know it's locally sourced but are you guys liking it omar said it was good not life
changing did anybody else have any reviews of other items what do you mean your life wasn't changed? That's what I said.
I mean, as far as like fast food goes, it was great. You know, they sourced everything locally from within the range of a single Tesla charge. They listed all the suppliers on the menu. So
it's top notch fast food, but you know, ultimately it's fast food.
It's top-notch fast food, but ultimately it's fast food.
Yeah, it's cool that it's open 24-7 too. That's exciting. Makes it fun.
So welcome into the room, talking through several items here.
Of course, the opening of the Tesla Diner, earnings coming up tomorrow,
a lot of questions around autonomy of four vehicles and Optimus Tesla rolling out, you know,
new products such as supercharged gummies, all types of stuff going on in this world right now.
What are you watching?
Earnings focusing on that.
I want to hear commentary about RoboTaxi stuff, progress on that.
I'm sure we'll get some sort of Optimus update.
The diner's cool.
It's fun.
But obviously earnings is more important.
So focusing on that.
Earnings is more important than bacon?
Come on.
As much as I love $4 per strip bacon, I'm going to focus on the earnings.
With margins like that on burgers You know a $13 cheeseburger
It could be material
I will say if we don't start getting
Burgers on our production
Delivery reports I'm going to be really
Upset
So talk just a little bit deeper
Inside of earnings What specifically you're going to be
looking for sawyer i think we just want to hear sort of a recap of how the initial launch
with the robotaxi service has gone they've obviously expanded the geofence or doubled it
and i'd love to sort of hear how quickly can they expand that not only in Austin, but also elsewhere in other parts of the country. They have filed to start operating in Arizona and they, I think they're
supposed to get a decision on that from the officials in that area, I think in the next week
or so. So I'm sure they have some sort of indication of how that will go. So that's,
that's huge because Phoenix alone, the Phoenix Metro area, makes up 50% of Waymo's entire
geofence area in all of the US.
It's like 315 square miles, I think.
So Tesla could certainly operate a massive area as well there.
Optimus, Elon has sort of thrown out some timelines on what they might be able to accomplish
with Optimus this year.
He's been teasing version three.
I'd love to just get some little tidbits on what they're accomplishing with that and what we can expect with that um but honestly I think the the retail investor questions for tomorrow are
pretty solid I did just look up the question list and it looks like a hardware three question did
squeak in the top seven so uh enough people upvoted that
but besides that most of the other questions are pretty solid this time
yeah landon soyer will you give me your take on what expansion for robo taxi looks like
in a city that doesn't have the gigafactory? I mean, it's got to be a huge benefit
to start in Austin where you've got all the resources. That's where they're building the
cars. They're building the Model Ys that are going into that fleet. How do they move that
operation to a city that maybe has some service centers, some delivery centers, but no factory?
Is that a big deal or no problem?
No, I don't think it's a big deal.
Because as long as you have some sort of lot or place to keep all the cars
during the nighttime when you're not operating, I think it's fine.
They do have certain hubs around the country that they could place them in.
But I really don't think it's a big deal.
Tesla right now, most of their FSD and engineering teams
are keeping an eye on this from like a couple thousand miles away in Palo Alto.
And so they're not really, most of them aren't based in Austin, Texas,
and yet they're still sort of handling it all.
So I don't think there's going to be an issue from a distance.
Yeah, you don't need a car factory to run a robo-taxi service.
It may be helpful that you already have some staff there,
but they have staff all over the country.
Waymo's giving millions of driverless rides a year,
and they don't have any car factories anywhere.
So, yeah, I definitely don't think it's going to be an issue.
Omar, somebody asked, or actually somebody pointed out, this is interesting, that when you try to, I guess there's no option to tip for the Tesla diner. It says
Tesla covers tips for the workers. Did you notice that? Yeah, I think that's right. That's cool.
There you go. I feel like I've seen an Elon poster, too, about tipping culture.
So glad that they didn't make the mandatory 50% minimum option.
That's good to see.
Sawyer, what are you thinking in regards to Elon's tonality on the call tomorrow?
And then how much do you think anything around, around i mean he's been quieting down a
little bit on it but anything around you know politics or some of these other areas gets
brought into the mix um and then i also just the one other question sorry within that is
if you think he'll touch at all on grok being kind of integrated with tesla i think if he's
going to comment on politics,
the extent of it will probably be surrounding tariffs would be my guess. We just saw GM today
report earnings and they took a $1 billion hit to their income because of tariffs. So
we'll probably get some sort of commentary around that, but Elon's not going to wade into the
American party stuff. That's not the right setting for that. He's going to focus on Tesla stuff,
I think.
He probably will talk about XAI a little bit just because of the Grok integration.
Most people still don't have that yet. I don't have it yet. I know Omar and a few others have it.
My guess is with the launch of Grok 4, the launch of Grok in Tesla cars and the Grok voice companion thing all launching sort of at the same time that xai servers might have
been a little not only overloaded but maybe there were some bugs along the way that they're just
trying to work out so that'll probably expand pretty soon here but no i think he'll mostly
just stay focused on optimus robotaxi stuff and then also the the semi was also brought up i think ryan was that you mentioned that
that you'd love to get some updates on that so here we talked about that on the gigacast recently
i guess just across the the vehicle spectrum anything else you expect there
i mean they currently already talked about the semi in their video that they released a couple
days ago so that's sort of the update, I think.
Pilot production, it looks like it's on track to start later this year and then volume production next year. They're probably just going to reiterate that timeline. It is sort of a question of,
is Elon going to acknowledge the Model YL? They obviously have to address the more affordable
model situation somehow because the wording that they used in the previous two earnings reports
can't be used in this new earnings report because they said production will start in the first half of 2025.
So they got to update that language somehow. But the question is, with this sort of EB tax credit
situation going on, do they acknowledge all these more specifically what models are coming,
such as the Model YL, or do they just kind of continue to keep it vague, keep us on the edge
of our seat while we wait for this quarter to play out and the people to focus on the EV tax
credit and sales and all that. If production is still a little ways off, I suspect they won't
talk about it much because I think they've sort of learned from the past and that they've talked
about vehicles so early on,
like a year,
year,
year or two,
even more in the Cybertruck's case and that it just doesn't serve them or
the customers at all.
So I think they're learning in that.
Let's just wait until the very last minute to discuss these,
these new models are more affordable models.
I think it's a little bit different in Tesla China's case in that they
probably had to file that paperwork with the government. They knew that that information was going to come out in the public. So they were like, all right, let's just, we'll acknowledge that this thing is coming, but we're not going to say much about it.
Panel has any questions for Sawyer, Omar, in advance of earnings while we have them here.
Feel free to bring those into the mix.
Think about that for one minute or two.
Kim, we haven't heard from you just yet.
Can I bring it over to you?
Hear any latest thoughts that you have on the Tesla side of things?
Well, I didn't know there was going to be a Tesla diner.
And so I think I saw Omar's post.
And I'm excited because I'm leaving for SoCal Thursday.
So I'm going to check out that diner.
I looked at the menu today.
I don't know.
I don't have a Tesla when I'm down there.
So can you not drive a Tesla and go here?
Yeah, you can show up without a Tesla.
Yeah.
So wish I did have my Tesla down down there would be able to drive it but
it looks pretty cool um i found it interesting that he built it in california first and not texas
um but maybe that was pre-planned from a while back they've been working on this so long it
predates them even moving to te. Were there really robots serving inside?
I read something about, so how was that? I mean, you know, they were just scooping popcorn.
It wasn't exactly rocket science, but I mean, it's not every day you see a modern humanoid
robot like that interacting with customers. So some people told me it was just kind of a opening launch day kind of thing.
I don't know if it's going to be there long term.
But, you know, if they're successful with their humanoid robot program,
as we'd hope them to be,
you could imagine Optimus being used more and more within that facility.
Yeah, so I want to go there to see the robots myself.
I mean, that would be one of the main drivers.
And the menu looked pretty decent,
kind of old diner style.
So it'll be interesting once the hype wears off,
like, you know,
are people still going to be going there
and how busy is it going to be?
So that'll be super interesting to see.
And then if they open more of these,
like one more question for you,
I guess,
cause you're the most knowledgeable about this stuff.
What do you think the purposes of the diner?
Like what is the end goal here?
You know,
it's just a fun charging location.
It's got 80. Oh, yeah., they've got 80 chargers there. It's open to Teslas. It's open to other cars. They've got solar there. They've
got a mega pack there, you know, charging on sunlight, using that to power the cars. And
it's actually really cool. So, you know, if you navigate to the diner,
it'll actually pop up a thing on your car and say,
hey, do you want to order some food?
And we'll have the food ready for you when you get there to charge.
So you get this whole Tesla Diner app.
You can order whatever you want,
pay with your credit card you already have on file.
Then you just pull in and charge,
and someone comes over on Rollerblades and gives you your food.
And they've got like a big movie screen with a movie playing.
You can tune into the audio on your car.
So it's just kind of a fun charger concept, you know, to make charging a great experience.
And they've already announced they're going to do a second one in Starbase.
If this works out well, they may have them all over the
country. It's just about making traveling in an EV a great experience. No, okay, that makes sense.
Because so the idea is to have when people charge, they can take an eating break, especially if
you're traveling or, you know, you've been driving around the city all day.
You can then stop there to grab your food,
bite to eat while you're waiting to charge. That's actually,
I actually like that.
Yeah, exactly.
That's all I have this week. Not much on,
not much on my car,
except to say it's navigating the carpool lane
a little bit better.
That is good.
Yeah, I know that's something
that we've talked about in the past.
Some good pieces there.
Okay, real quick, Sawyer,
just want to double back to you.
Two other little pieces.
One, that $7,500 EV credit expires September 30th.
And I did see you posted,
you know, if people want to take advantage of that,
they might want to get in even a little sooner than then
because as you get closer to it,
there may not be an opportunity to still use it
kind of if you wait till the last day.
And then one other thing that I thought
was very interesting that you posted about,
it's a little bit different than Tesla,
but Starlink has put up a reward for uh people who can hack it essentially looking to improve their security
curious if you had thoughts on those two items yeah the reward thing is just it's pretty normal
honestly there are a lot of companies sort of host these bounty programs where that if you find loop
or you know issues bugs security uh holes within software, they'll give you some sort of reward.
So that's pretty normal.
On the EV credit, I said what I said last night because I think a lot of people expect Tesla to have the strongest incentives at the last months of the quarter.
And historically, that is true.
And historically, that is true.
But unfortunately, I think if enough people have that mindset going into September, but
also want to take advantage of the EV credit, I feel like there might be a massive final
dash to be able to take advantage of all the incredible incentives, but also to take your
delivery of your car in time.
And with Tesla being a direct-to-consumer sales model, delivery times can kind of be up in
the air a bit. It can be sooner than you expect or much longer than you expect. And if we're in
a situation where a lot of people have waited until the final month of this quarter to see what
incentives might pop up and then order to try take delivery that month tesla there might be a
scenario where tesla just might not be able to complete all the deliveries that they want to in
the time frame that they'd like um we'll see it doesn't look like wait times have gone up
uh on tesla's website so far so that indicates to me that they're not seeing a massive amount
of demand right now but we'll see if that change is heading into september um yeah we're just something to keep an eye on like as long as there's enough inventory in your
area i think it should be fine if they have the model that you want but just something to keep uh
in mind yeah this ev tax credit program that's ending at the end of September is the greatest thing ever. The
government just literally buys you a Tesla. They give you $7,500 off. You don't have to wait. You
don't have to wait until tax time. It just comes right off at the point of sale. And even if your
income is too high, there's a leasing loophole. You can lease a car and they'll roll it right into the lease.
So they're giving leases for $300 a month, $350 a month for the new Model Y.
It's just nuts.
And those prices are going to go up next quarter.
So you don't want to be waiting until the end of September
and you're struggling to find a car you can take delivery of in time
and you end up maybe not getting the
exact car you want, order it now. Take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit. A car that's $42,490
for the Model 3 becomes a car that's $34,990, so $35,000.
And then you can be driving around.
It's probably the best car you've ever owned.
So talk to your friends, talk to your family, people who might need a new car.
Tell them that this is the last three months of this insane deal.
And make sure to get your orders in early so you're not rushing in September.
Good point, y'all.
We're getting to the top of the hour here.
We're going to wrap up in a minute.
Tomorrow, a big announcement.
This is the first time that I am going to announce this.
Right after the earnings call,
so probably around 6.50 p.m. Eastern,
myself, Omar, and Sawyer are going to go live here on X for a special live episode of the Gigcast.
And so we are going to stream that through our page, the Gigacast.
We encourage everybody to come join.
Hopefully, you know, we'll take a few minutes to kind of digest the information and
then come out with our takeaways from the earnings call and talk about what we believe it means for
this next quarter so i just want to put that everyone's radar you can set your alarms right
after the earnings call 6 50 p.m eastern tomorrow uh sawyer any final comments on this one
nope looking forward to the commentary.
Me as well. Omar, anything else for you?
Yeah, I'm excited for earnings day tomorrow.
And right after this, I'm going to be doing an NVIDIA bull bear debate space with George from Prospero.
So come to that if you're interested in NVIDIA.
Very nice. Very nice. That's exciting.
Penny, any final comments
also excited for the earnings call excited for tesla takeover coming up this weekend
hope to see a bunch of you there perfect uh if you guys want more tesla talk i'm going to close
this one out but the wolf trading space is now going to do a full panel on all the earnings
that are happening this week and i'm sure that they will touch plenty on Tesla as well. So I would encourage everybody to go jump over to
Wolf Trading. Thank you again for tuning in to another amazing Tesla space with us. Looking
forward to a big day tomorrow. Appreciate you all. Talk soon. Have a good one. .
