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TESLA $TSLA AND GOOGLE $GOOGL LIVE EARNINGS
Recorded: July 23, 2025 Duration: 3:48:18Space Recording
Short Summary
Tesla's recent earnings call revealed exciting developments in their Robotaxi service, which has officially launched in Austin and aims to cover half of the U.S. population by year-end. The company also reported a 25% increase in FSD subscription adoption, highlighting significant growth potential in their autonomous vehicle strategy.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up, everyone? Happy Wednesday, July the 23rd. And yeah, here we go. Earnings season
is in full swing. And today it kind of kicks it up to that next notch. We've had a lot of
things going on a lot of different names reporting so far. But today we do have Tesla and Google both reporting after
the close. Our first two MAG7 names. ServiceNow also reporting after the close, Chipotle, IBM,
T-Mobile, as well as a myriad of other names. There's been some from this morning, GEV.
I know it's one that's been talked about on this space several times that had a very good report and very good reaction.
A lot of things going on in the market today.
Kind of a weird choppy day, but a grind to the upside with a big news blip.
We had some news out of the Financial Times around an EU trade agreement.
So we'll see what everyone thinks about that. And of course,
what everyone thinks about these big earnings this afternoon. Quick market update for everyone
as we get started here. The NASDAQ is up 0.35%, sitting up here near the highs of the day. It's
an inside day overall, still inside of yesterday's range. The S&P, new all-time highs, up 0.7% today. SPY sitting at $633 a share.
SPX, $63.50 right now. $63.53 actually on my screen. And small caps, again, another great day
over in IWM land, up another 1% there.
And the Dow as well, up 1%.
VIX down 6% today, broke down under that 16, down to 15.39.
And then, of course, looking at some of your big names, notably the ones that we'll be reporting today, but your MAG7.
You had NVIDIA take off this afternoon with a big move up two percent today
meta also up 1.3 percent today those are your out performers uh google just slightly red down
about a half a percent just under half a percent ahead of its report and tesla sitting at break
even there was also a tesla news story out um explorationsations Early Talks with Nevada for the RoboTaxi expansion.
And with that, that's about all I have as far as kicking us off today.
I'm ready to jump into the panel here a little bit.
Evan, welcome to the stage.
Anything from you before we start going around?
I know you're excited.
I am excited.
I do just want to make sure everyone knows it is Tesla earnings day and Google earnings
day. So the chat does tend to change around, you know, 3.30, 3.45 p.m. Eastern, and we'll shift in and focus in a lot more there. So I would say probably end up being a less of a trading focused spaces today. I see nine traders staring me in my face right now so that that is still fine but um but yeah
there you go well we'll still uh we'll still chat some markets a little bit here in the first
portion of the show and then of course we do have a lot of earning stuff to talk about i'm excited
to jump into a big day over on that front spartan, your hands up. We'll go over to you first. What's going on? Hey guys. Yeah. So I got to run out a little bit before
earnings and kind of get myself ready and all that type of stuff. But I talked about this the
last couple of weeks and I'm going to talk about it again on the small cap side, kind of what's
been going on. And we've had some really nice movements today.
Some notable ones.
Wolf, these two calls, one and a half.
The two calls, we got it at four cents and they ripped up to around like 40.
And I kind of want to just go over how to find these things real quick.
You know, it's fairly simple.
I talked about it last week.
week relative volume above one make sure you got about a buck a room to the upside and what's
Relative volume above one.
Make sure you got about a buck a room to the upside.
really been working well this week is watching the option volume activity on the first uh strike so
you know for instance dnut yesterday i tweeted this out at around 350 $3.50 this uh yesterday
morning noticed that the uh the five calls had a couple sweeps in the morning about 2 000 is kind of what i'm looking at minimum
volume on these small cap names and when you tend to see that happen right out the gate that morning
tends to build the entire day and it can cause a little bit of a gamma squeeze and that's what
happened on d9 we saw it push up to six bucks that ended up being a 1200 mover on the five calls for
us in the first uh you know 24 hours there And we'll see what happens with that going forward.
I think these things may be more of one and done.
But the reason I'm bringing this up
is that mean market is kind of coming back.
So what you want to do
is you want to look at that option activity.
Any of these small caps
you're trading heavy flow in the morning,
usually good to keep or watch on them.
Anything with larger insider ownership
as well in the small caps.
Good example is this agh
we're in it right now um from 75 it's at like a block 16 it's kind of squeezing to the upside
take a look at the daily chart you'll see that it's going to have room around like 148 and
the next resistance above that's somewhere in the two dollar range but the the reason i want to bring
this up about for you guys to chase it by no no means do I think, you know, it's a good bye here. I think you're kind of late.
But I want you to see the example of that chart and what's actually been working in this tape.
You know, I haven't really looked at any of the big caps today.
I kind of tend to look at only momentum-based things.
And the small caps haven't been, you know, a sector that I've spent a lot of time in the last couple of years.
But the last month, I've spent most of my time here.
And there's a ton of opportunity.
These things obviously a little bit quicker, but you need to make sure you're controlling your risk, et cetera.
But I want to just educate you guys on what I'm looking at.
And I'm finding these names because it can certainly help you get into nice risk reward trades before they kind of get explosive.
A lot of these you can risk $0.05 or $0.10 to the downside to the downside to make 50 to a buck on the upside which is tremendous and you can get quite lucky on
some of them especially if they're especially they have options on them as well so primarily
what i've been doing there and a lot of the um old kind of uh higher or lower quality names like
irbt bumble um obviously you know dna from yesterday you can keep an eye on those types of
small cap um you know small cap but you know i guess kind of more of like blue chip known type
of names because that's the ones that are to have options that were traded on them and those are the
ones that are getting the most attention from like the meme side of things obviously that open kind
of started within that market now Now, transitioning from that,
you know, on the big cap side,
AI trades very much alive.
GEV, really nice push today after earnings.
Going to be continuing to keep an eye on that.
I think Dell, Oracle, you got to watch.
From the semiconductor side,
Qualcomm, probably one of the better looking
on the daily as well as Arm.
And I think you can watch Arm for tomorrow.
Of course, we got Google earnings after the bell today.
So I'll be watching Google,
how they talk about AI kind of watching their verbiage around the cloud side
storage as well.
There could be some place in that regard,
but you know,
I think on the tech side,
we just got to see what happens going forward in earnings.
It's,
you know,
it's anyone's guess markets obviously's obviously at all-time highs.
And, you know, I think not all these FAANG names are, you know, no one's anticipating massive movements because they haven't really been bought into.
So I think the FAANG names can go either way right now.
A lot of the names that have pushed have been the semiconductors and kind of everything that's much more directly related to AI.
So a little bit cautious with those in the earnings.
But these other names, I think you can find some decent kind of bets on the option side going into their releases.
Other than that, I mean, I think you kind of just keep it straightforward.
Trade the trend. Don't fight it. Don't try to pick tops.
Definitely worth a hedge on some of these things i think it's got to be more individual focus than uh you know trying to trade the market
in general i think you're going to find more opportunity on the individual names and i think
you can kind of go from there but yeah keep an eye on the small caps guys that's primarily what
i've been looking at today that's pretty much it pardon when it comes to Google, is there any certain things that you're looking
through in the report?
Ad spend or any sectors that
excite you? Maybe that would have
some pin action for some of those
names that you trade?
I think what you want to look for on Google is
if they start to increase their
capex on anything
AI related, then that's going to trickle
down throughout that whole ecosystem. I think that's going to trickle down throughout that whole ecosystem.
And then I think that's going to be a positive for Google.
I think their biggest threat obviously is to a search engine is obviously this AI coming
in and basically taking a lot of their market share.
So that would probably be something that's fairly key.
and then the cloud side of things as well,
And then the cloud side of things as well, because that will be impactful too.
because that will be impactful too.
Most of these cloud-based traded names,
they've had a decent run in the short term,
and a lot of them are playing catch-up still.
So if we see some decent capital expenditure there
and that expanding,
I think you're going to see some nice opportunity
and sympathy in those types of names.
There you go. Appreciate
it, Spartan. Thank you.
You know Logical. I see Logical's hand up.
Yeah, Logical. What's up?
Look, he just talked a lot about
small caps, so I figured I would just follow
it up because I'm the
local small cap
dude. I agree. I think that the upside can be
way more than these. I mean, obviously, Spartan has like a trading thing, you know, like he talks
about risking five to make 50, which is fine, you know, in a risk reward perspective. But
here's what I'll tell you. The next hundred percents, the next multi baggers aren't going
to be the popular growth stocks. They're't going to be the popular growth stocks.
They're not going to be the FANG stocks, the MAG7.
Those things are not multi-baggers from here.
Those things are very heavy.
They're very difficult to move at that level.
The beautiful part is this market gives you opportunity.
Yesterday, I came on here and I was very direct and I said,
people who feel that this market has no opportunity is not looking hard enough.
And I think that you have to look outside of what has worked already.
And you have to look for that breadth expansion.
I talk about the biotechs a lot yesterday.
I talked about
and I'll get back to small caps, but I talked about the biotechs.
I talked about ABVX.
The thing is up 600% today.
You're going to tell me there's no opportunity in this market.
It's insane.
I caught that entire move.
I fully closed out the position.
It's the largest trade of my entire life.
And that's just one of 35 positions I have.
And it really moved the needle.
My year-to-date performance is now sitting at around 110%.
I mean, it's freaking July.
I am very impressed by what I've been able to do.
And what I can tell you is that I'm not taking my foot off the gas,
but I am being very selective in what I own.
I am still about 150% long after this move.
And people are like, dude, what do you mean?
You're bullish?
You're that bullish still?
Yes, I'm that bullish still.
Pay attention.
Look around.
There's still a lot of opportunity. There's still a lot of opportunity.
There's still a lot of names to look at.
Everyone's still focused.
I posted this yesterday.
Everyone is focused on the same 50 stocks.
Obviously, there's no alpha.
When everyone is looking at the same thing,
what are you going to make pennies?
If you look outside of those opportunities,
you're going to find dollars.
And I think there's a lot of dollars right now trading for pennies.
So, you know, I know there's a lot of great technical guys on here.
I get it.
But sometimes you have to remember that there's businesses underlying these stock
investments, and so when you think about it from an investment standpoint,
these things are trading very cheap, and so there's still a lot of opportunity.
But you have to put a little
bit of your fundamental hat on. And so, you know, I'm not looking for the 50% trade on
the amount I'm looking for, or the, you know, $2 move. I'm looking for the $20 move. And
I think that there's still a lot of those around. I talked about how many opportunities
there are in this market where you can still be bottom fishing. We're not even talking,
I do not want to chase momentum. I don't even know if I have a single momentum name
in my portfolio besides maybe some of the crypto stuff
just to have exposure.
But you look at the bio sector,
it's extremely beaten up.
I mean, I was in another stock that was up 60% today.
I actually exited today.
CLSD thing is up almost 100% since Monday morning
because it was sold off so brutally.
And they had good news today because when you price these assets so cheap,
then it doesn't take much for that valuation to work out.
I think people forget that it's not just about the stock price,
but underlying market cap.
Everything is about market cap.
If you're looking at it by stock price, you're doing it wrong.
So understanding where there's value in terms of revenue growth, et cetera, the future outlook of the business.
I think people forget about that when we're in these hot markets. They think, oh, well,
you know, stock goes up, chart looks good. But I think people forget that at the end of the day,
this, when you own a share of a company, you own a percentage of the equity of that business.
And so I think it's time to get back to business fundamentals if you want to do
well, not saying that you can't keep chasing a lot of these things.
And that's fine.
But I think that the real alpha is going to come from other things.
I named how many stocks and there's household names at this point that are
in the software sector, like GitLab, Braze,
Okta, there's a lot of, Braze, Okta.
There's a lot of cheap names, Bill.
I mean, those things are, in my view, bottoming.
And so you don't even have to go to the quote unquote lower quality names.
There's still a ton of high quality.
I mean, the bios are trading for pennies.
But anyways, I'm going to stop it there.
Just look harder.
Yeah, I appreciate you.
I want to go to Omar and Sawyer and talk through some of these earnings that we have today.
We'll see where the conversation shifts out.
And definitely feel free, everyone, to throw in here if you guys have any thoughts.
And then we've got a lot of traders up here as well if you guys want to talk about some of the shorter term as well.
But Omar, how are you doing today, sir?
Hey, doing good.
I am excited to have you.
What are the general themes here?
We got some people in the spaces, maybe an option Mike can tune in if he wants to give the other
side of it. I won't put him in there as a Tesla bear, but he's definitely not in the Tesla pull
category. Great guy though. Don't give him the mean comments, Tesla fans. But I want to hear
your thoughts on going into these Tesla earnings, what you're kind of watching, excited for. We know how the numbers are going, but what do you think people are going to be focused on?
Yeah, I mean, we already have the production and delivery report for the automotive business.
They're down year over year. So you'd expect to see the top line and the bottom line down year
over year. Nobody's coming into this expecting some type of massive beat on the financials.
But this is the first earnings call since they've launched their robo-taxi service in Austin.
I think this is something that really has the potential to change the economics of the business in a big way.
And most of the retail questions on Say.com seem to be focused on that. So I think
you're going to get a lot of questions about the RoboTaxi network, autonomy, robotics, and real
world AI, as well as some analyst questions, most likely about the auto business, how they're
about the auto business, how they're viewing themselves in that core business.
And, you know, there's also the energy business as well, which is doing pretty well.
A lot of people want to talk toward that energy business.
And, you know, when you kind of look at how it's been growing and you project it out a
couple of years and you look at the profitability of that business. I think that will be a conversation
over the next couple of years,
but I just feel like it's a little too early.
And I know that's when I was hearing people
talking about the number side of it
and yeah, but it might not be as bad.
I don't know how much that's actually
going to end up moving it.
I don't hear them talking about the energy business
as much as some of the other ones.
I do know that like the XAI GigaScent,
the Memphis one, they talked in their release specifically about using Megapacks. I feel like
they could do a better job selling the usage of those in this whole AI and future ecosystem.
But yeah, have I just missed it? Have I not paid attention? But I feel like they could
kind of maybe sell that side of it a little better.
Well, they're not trying to sell it to you.
The people who buy large batteries are definitely aware of the product.
Well, but I'm more meant of it.
They're trying to sell it to me as an investor in the market and wanting to speculate on the stock going up.
It seems like they want you to speculate on Optimus and RoboTaxi.
Maybe it's just much bigger opportunities and they
don't want me to get excited as much about um like that energy side of it and it's not they
don't want me to but like where i feel like all the focus is in a specific way i mean the energy
business now has fatter margins and faster growth than the automotive business automotive is still
bigger today but they've
now launched a Megapack factory in China. They're building a second location in Texas.
There are some risks. Obviously, the trade war and the import tariffs, I think, pose a risk to
the energy business and the production here in the United States. A lot of those cells are coming from China, unlike the vehicle side
of the business. And recently, there's been a 30% tax credit that you can receive on solar and
battery projects. Under Biden, you were able to get a 30% tax credit for the battery itself
without even purchasing any solar. So this was obviously a huge subsidy for the industry.
They've now, I think, started to remove that.
I don't think it's gone just yet,
but they're phasing it out within the next three to six months.
So those could potentially be headwinds,
but longer term, you look at the growth of these AI data centers,
you look at the growth of electrification and renewable energy all over the world.
This is something that I think is going to continue to be a secular growth trend on the utility scale battery side.
Sawyer, I'd love to bring you into it.
The best Tesla news guy out there, keeping you up on everything.
You got any thoughts on what he was saying there?
And then just in general,
what you're excited for watching for these numbers?
Sorry, I was focusing on something else.
What was he talking about?
We were talking a lot about the energy storage business there.
Kind of people pointing towards the numbers
that was actually kind of progressing along pretty nicely.
And that side of it.
But just in general, also, you know, what you think this will be focused on.
We kind of know where the numbers are going to line up more or less, but everyone knows that.
So what's going to move the stock here?
The energy storage business is a really large one and the total addressable market is pretty massive. But I think because the RoboTaxi addressable market and Optimus humanoid robot addressable market are both so much larger that my guess is that's why that sort of energy narrative is quieted down a little bit because the other opportunities are much larger.
I don't get it, though, because this AI data center theme is so huge.
We need more energy for all of this stuff.
And like I was saying, I saw you tweet it out.
The XAI Memphis data center that they put out there,
they specifically said we're using,
I didn't see how many Tesla Megapacks.
It feels like a business that is more here right now,
this second in the team that everyone cares about.
I think it's because a lot of people are only just starting to wake up to the fact
that how important battery energy storage
is going to be going forward,
especially with this massive compute needs. And unfortunately, we have an
administration that is kind of bearish against batteries and sort of renewable energy in general.
And while they didn't completely cut the incentives for battery energy storage in their most recent
bill that Trump passed, they're sort of not
necessarily promoting it either. And we've seen other countries like Australia really dive deep
into adopting batteries and solar energy, probably because their infrastructure needs just require it.
But the US is lagging a little bit behind on that front. But I think with the start of sort of Elon
showing that look how important our Megapack product has been
in terms of the success of our XCI Colossus
supercomputer cluster data center in Memphis, Tennessee.
I think they had $150 million worth roughly
of Tesla Megapacks at the Colossus 1 data center.
So the Colossus 2 is supposed to be much bigger.
So we can expect a lot more Megapacks to be used there.
But I think that'll sort of be shown as sort of a test bed or a case of that.
Look how great these things perform.
And that when you have peak power needs and massive power fluctuations, these fossil fuel generators and stuff just can't keep up.
And that's where electric, you know, all electric battery energy storage hops in and can take the load much easier.
So I think it'll happen. It just takes time.
I know there's been a lot of news over the last couple days and weeks. And is there anything you
find interesting going into these earnings? Obviously, we have the say.com questions.
The earnings pulled at 530. So we'll have two hours before we go.
We can really dig into that, so I don't know how far we go into it.
But I'm just curious, from what you're hearing,
we kind of know what's going to be asked around the RoboTaxi launch,
probably some stuff around Optimus and the timeframes they're giving off next year.
I imagine there's going to be a political question.
We kind of know what questions are going to be asked here.
I'm curious on which ones you're excited to hear the answer on those.
Tesla's vehicle business is in decline.
Their sales are down year over year, and their margins on the automotive side are in decline.
But I don't think people are really going to focus on all that too much in this earnings report,
because really the narrative going forward and the story going forward is robotaxis and optimists and as long as i think elon provides enough sort of bullish
vision or bullish outlook in the near to median term and probably long term as well then it's
likely that whatever bad earnings that tesla might release in the next hour or so people probably just
overlook it as long as they get some sort of
indication that the RoboTaxi rollout
is going smoothly, here's where we plan
to expand it next, so on and so forth.
Do you really think
these things aren't close?
Everything I read says RoboTaxi is at least a year away
before it has any kind of financial hit
before they ramp anything up.
I think you're going to hear a lot of
smoke and mirrors tonight. He's going to do everything he can to try to distract from the problems with politics and
the ev and try to talk up but not giving any details and i mean i just i think tonight's
going to be a night where any kind of pop you get on i'd be very careful chasing tesla i can't
i don't see where the for this earnings call where the pop comes from I mean
we know the numbers are going to be horrific I mean they probably may not because every
every analyst out there has lowered their you know they've lowered the bar as the
some quarters go on but I mean the margins can't be good I don't I don't know where this
pop comes from unless it's just extreme I just think I just said it, Mike. You kind of just said it.
If everybody lowered the bar, then the bar is low enough to where you can just talk around it.
I guess.
I think Tesla is probably the hardest name to trade today.
And it's probably the one I'm least likely to trade after hours tonight.
I mean, I think everyone's expectations going into this report are pretty low.
I mean, everyone expects sales, like the margins to be terrible, the
revenue to be down and whatnot. But no one is really invested in Tesla stock anymore for the
vehicle business by itself. Like really, if you're an investor in Tesla stock, you're bullish on
likely RoboTax is an optimist. So that's sort of why I think as long as they steer that narrative
towards that, it'll be overlooked. I agree, but I think they're both at least a year to two years
away. I mean, from what I'm hearing about Optimus,
right now it's still being driven by humans. The only
where it's working on its own is in the factory
slowly moving batteries back and forth
is what I read. That is not
anywhere close yet to being
let loose. So there are
some instances where it's doing
small tasks
autonomously in the factory,
but it's nothing major yet. And like
when it was at the Tesla diner, for example, it was being remotely controlled. It's teleoperated.
It's not fully autonomous yet. Just to quickly comment on this back and forth,
all technology works this way, right? Like all technology is nothing until it's something.
And I mean, I wouldn't say the robo taxi program is nothing. I mean, they launched in Austin and then expanded the operational area pretty quickly.
And if they can do that again, then they start to prove the point that you don't need LIDAR to solve this problem.
And that's a pretty fundamental point to make. So, yeah, I mean, is Optimus a year away? Is it five years away?
a year away is it five years away i don't know i don't have a crystal ball but it's going to be
I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball.
something where you know it's it's it's sort of that slowly and then all at once uh phrase that
everyone uses all the time that's how all technology works at inception it is all extremely
doubtful and people are skeptical on timelines and then one day there's a product that's introduced and there's a demonstration that's done and people
are like oh shit it's ready and then a ton of investment pours into the space
accelerates then you see deployment market share gains and that's just I
don't disagree with you I agree but and I'm not again I think these can be very
big for Tesla I'm there but his his timelines are always, you've got to double them or triple them.
His timelines are always hard.
Yeah, but he's also doing things that have never been done, right?
I don't know if people remember the early criticisms of SpaceX's reusable engine program.
He said it was going to be done in two years, and it took him four and a half instead.
Is that an issue?
I mean, no, they did something that's never been done before.
Human robots have never been built before at scale, right?
So in Boston Dynamics, when's the first time, I should say,
that everyone out there has seen a Boston Dynamics humanoid robot video, right?
Like a decade ago, right?
But they still haven't built one at scale.
Still, right?
10, 12, 13.
I mean, I don't know exactly how many years ago it was when they did their first demonstration.
But the point is, is that, yeah, it's all nothing until somebody makes a product that can be scaled and then it's game over and you see insanely fast proliferation.
Like the example I always bring up is the cell phone industry and the landlines. Right.
Like no one thought that that trend was going to unwind that quickly.
And within five years, like most people didn't even have a landline in their homes anymore.
So, yeah, it is slowly than all at once. And I think the market to an extent understands that.
And that's why the market is forward looking when it comes to technology, because, yeah, Optimist, it probably isn't going to come out at scale next month or at any time this year.
Optimist, it probably isn't going to come out at scale next month or at any time this
year, maybe not even next year.
But if the market believes that it is a commercially viable product that will be able to be built
at scale by Tesla, which Tesla has the manufacturing capacity to do so, then the market's going
to attempt to price in that opportunity.
Obviously where the difference of opinion is, is whether you think the market is overpricing that opportunity or underpricing that opportunity. It's that simple.
But I mean, I don't think we should be, the point I'm making is, I don't think we should be
surprised that the market is being forward looking on things like full self driving and optimist. I
don't think that that's like, or at least it doesn't surprise me. I mean, look, we all know
that Elon's timelines can be way off at times, like sometimes even by years.
But the fact remains is since the last earnings report, Tesla has made meaningful progress on the robo-taxi front.
And just within the next week, we're expected to hear from Arizona whether they're going to approve Tesla's robo-taxi service or not for deployment.
So even though this might take longer than expected and it might be a long time before
it's material to the company on the from the bottom line perspective they're making progress
and things are starting to happen that we've been waiting years for yeah i mean you can look at this
and say oh my god he's taking so much longer than he said but right now i've got a car that i can go
sit inside type in a destination push a, and it'll drive me there.
And there's no other car on the market that can do that.
Tesla's really positioned themselves at the corner of long-term secular trends.
You look at what's happening in the auto business, you look at countries like Norway, countries like China.
Most of the cars sold there now are electric vehicles.
And in other countries like the United States, we're at about 8%. So we're still in the very
early days. People are still very resistant to the idea of using electric cars in a lot of cases.
If there's, you know, this is a cyclical industry. If there's some years that are down years or tough years,
there's a lot of competition.
There's a lot of oversaturation in the EV market,
a lot of money losing players right now.
But longer term investors, I think,
are willing to overlook the cyclical nature of that business
because we're at the very early stages
of a long-term opportunity in
electrification. And the same thing can be said about autonomy and humanoid robotics.
Is it going to make a bunch of money in the next 12 months? Probably not. But think about long-term,
what's going to happen as these cutting-edge AI models, the same kind that we talk to, that we ask to help us with
financial analysis, solve problems, look up information. If you could put that in a humanoid
robot, I mean, what is the TAM of that long term? So that's what it really comes down to. The bears
are going to come here, and they're going to look at the quarter and say, look at these horrible margins, look at the top line declining, look at the bottom line declining.
But the people who are long this stock are interested in those long-term secular opportunities
that were just at the beginning of.
one thing i will say x twitter can sometimes be a very difficult place to be someone uh
saying bad things about tesla so i do appreciate you being here uh well say not nicely well okay
whatever you know what i'm trying to say i'm not trying to put you in my leg like i don't
have any thoughts but i do appreciate you being here as always.
Respect both sides.
Cool.
Stock talk, you got anything you want to throw in in general?
We're heading to these earnings.
Numbers normally come out around 4.03 p.m. yesterday.
You gave some thoughts there.
Yeah, I think so.
I know we're right around the head.
I mean, I just don't think the investor base is concerned with the core business at this juncture.
The core business is weak.
It's expected to be weak.
Wall Street thinks it's going to be weak.
Retail thinks it's going to be weak.
So there's even a potential for upside surprise in the core business, considering how bad expectations are.
I'm not betting on that, but maybe even that happens.
I talked about yesterday, and I'll briefly just say this, about shareholder bases and how they're different for every stock.
And it's important to understand the shareholder base that you're in when you're in a stock.
Tesla's shareholder base is not like the other megatech companies or not like most of the other megatech companies. Maybe outside of Palantir might be the closest analog.
analog, some companies and some stocks just have shareholder bases that see this greater vision
10 or 15 years down the road of industry dominance, and they bet on that and own the stock on that
belief alone. And all of the incremental stuff until then is largely unimportant to them. And to
me, that's what most of the Tesla shareholder base is. So you're not going to shake them out of the stock on bad issues with the core business. You shake
them out of the stock on negative commentary or negative developments about Optimus or about
their autonomy program. And so that's where I think the focus will be on this call as well.
That's why the Tesla call is always more important than the print. You know, you listen to the call and if Elon is really, really bullish on
the expansion of their Robotaxi program, that's a big deal, in my opinion, because again,
and I keep reiterating this, they are doing this without LIDAR. That is the fundamental
difference that's happening here. And at scale, that means much cheaper deployment,
much faster deployment, the ability for consumers to
have self-driving vehicles instead of massive LIDAR outfitted $300,000 monstrosities. It's an
industry changing paradigm. So it does matter if Tesla expands this rapidly. If Tesla's in three
plus cities by the end of the year, it's game over in my opinion. If Tesla's in three plus cities
with significant range by the end of the year without LIDAR over, in my opinion. If Tesla's in three-plus cities with significant range by the end of the year
without LiDAR and no one is dead, that's a big deal, like a really big deal.
We'll see where they are by the end of the year, but that's kind of my benchmark.
Once they're in three-plus cities, fully operational, no major incidents,
that's industry changing, in my view.
And also the Optimist program,
which we haven't heard much on in a while.
Obviously, there've been some media reports about it,
but Elon comments on that positively as well.
I think the stock will respond positively to that.
But again, I think this is important
whether you're trading or investing in the stock.
I know there's some people met earlier
that I think Mike was talking about how he's trading it.
Whether you're trading or investing,
I think it's important to understand
the shareholder base of the stock that you're in because it's going to give you a better expectation
of what the attitudes are going to be around certain events and yeah i just don't think the
core business matters as much right now because everyone is super focused on this next opportunity
and they're willing to look five or ten years out for what that opportunity fully culminated might look
like. So that's kind of my two cents on Tesla earnings. Yeah, I mean, I agree with stock talk.
At the same time, this isn't a trillion dollar meme stock. At some point, there do actually have
to be some earnings that result from this. You can't just be bullish all
the time forever. Investors' patience will run out eventually. But I think in this quarter,
as they've launched their rideshare service for the first time, albeit at a small scale,
there's meaningful steps happening to transform the core unit economics of the business.
happening to transform the core unit economics of the business. So we'll see what Elon has to say,
his reports on the early service, how quickly they're going to expand.
And I think that'll inform how people really model this out for the next year or two.
We do also, this is a really interesting day for Google to also be reporting earnings.
I know Waymo gets talked about a lot and that is funneled somewhere within Google.
If anyone has thoughts, I would love to, anyone could jump open here.
But Google, obviously, there's been a lot of focus around the search business.
Is that going to die?
Whatever.
There's been focus around this AI business.
DeepMind was the first people launching this stuff,
and now they're getting raided by Microsoft, their AI talent.
That felt weird.
But Google has had a nice couple-week move off of the lower.
Any of you guys watching Google pretty closely?
Omar, I might pick on you because I see you kind of posting it.
I've actually increased my position in Google in the past few weeks.
I think the narrative that was forming at the start of this sort of AI revolution
was that Google was going to completely get killed by companies like OpenAI
that had this sort of next-generation LLM technology
that it would completely replace search.
I think they've played really well
defensively. I mean, they've got some of the smartest AI researchers in the world.
They now have one of the top performing LLM models, the Gemini, I think is actually at the
top of the LM arena leaderboard right now for text-based. So they've really integrated AI
into their products pretty well. I think the risk of Google being completely killed off by some AI competitor has decreased
over the last 12 months or so, and they're performing very well just in terms of their
financials.
So I'm not as worried about Google getting killed by open AI as I was 12 or 24 months ago and
that's why I've increased my position.
Wolfie, I'm curious if you have any thoughts on Google heading into the earnings.
Yeah, I think it's in a pretty sweet spot. Some of the stuff that people were worried about is kind of like a little overblown, in my opinion.
I'm kind of interested to see if they've had any tailwind on the back of that AI expansion.
They've cut a deal for subscribers.
I think a three-month subscription was like half off or something like that for using their their vo product for example and it
came with a suite of gemini and some other stuff so i'm kind of curious to see if there's any
fraction uh on that front i kind of think the setup um just because of the expectations and
valuation kind of intersecting with um you know where where people perceive them to be, uh, from an AI standpoint kind of reminds me of summer of 2015, uh,
when people were kind of light on the stock, um, you know,
I feel like from a bar perspective,
the bar is kind of not as low as it's going to be for a company like that
company, um, uh, a mega cap like that.
I lean towards being favorable towards Google over some of the other mega caps into earnings,
specifically like Microsoft, which is run aggressively.
So I like it.
I own it.
I've owned it for quite a while.
I think my cost basis is, let me see, $50 or something like that.
So, you know, I'm a fan, but I would like to see them kind of, you know, turn the juice on a little bit.
So if they've got any levers that they can pull for this earnings for this earnings i think would be nice uh i also think given you know positioning and and what the options market's pricing in like the bar is
really low for them to kind of kind of kill it um so that's that's where i stand on google i'm a fan
i'm uh you know it's my favorite of the of the megas going into earnings, I guess outside of meta, but,
but that's kind of where I'm at. I'd love to see them, you know,
really kind of refine the YouTube stuff.
I'd love for them to kind of, you know,
create that to be a little bit more of a focus,
a little bit more of a focus point. I'd also love to see them,
you know, kind of get better at delivering also love to see them, you know,
kind of get better at delivering the messages.
I think, you know, the last AI event,
first of all, they rushed the two AI events,
which they didn't need to do.
But the last one in particular, I felt like they didn't do a good job communicating
of, you know, to the market,
what it was that the value,
what the value was that
was in front of them um and i kind of kind of felt like that that was it ran counter to what they
were trying to do uh if you go back and just look at the stock price like during the event the stock
sold off on the back of the event stock sold off and then you know the next couple of days the stock really kind of found its footing and took off from there so i i do think there's like a little bit of
a messaging uh problem quote unquote uh for the name um i think if they don't deliver anything
that's like a tape bomb um you know if they can just kind of find their footing it really sets
them up pretty nicely for the back end of the summer.
I think they have an event on August 20th as well.
So I'd like to see the messaging kind of get cleaned up.
I'd like to see them pull some of the levers.
And I kind of like the setup.
The one thing that you mentioned that I agree with is it ran into the earnings right so i think it was
up 10 days in a row up until today i don't know if it's up right now or not but i think it was up
10 days in a row going into the into today's uh earnings print and so you know it's really tough
to see it is currently down 0.5 percent in the intro it's near the high of day though and i will say uh if
it does close green today that would be the longest streak in its history yeah so it's got some work
to get to the the tie of the intro day the first candle moved higher sorry yeah that's cool thank
you for for filling that in but i'd i'd appreciate you know i'd i'd appreciate i would have appreciated
them not running it 10 days in a row into the print.
I kind of would rather the consolidation into it.
But that's the only real thing that kind of gives me pause for this name.
And beyond that, again, outside of a tape bomb, maybe even a digestion day or two,
I think it could kind of be one of those things that kind of runs, you know, on the back
of it. The last point I'd say about Google is if there's any sort of acceleration that is unexpected,
especially on the AI front, I do think you could see a situation where you would get a stock that
pops bases and then just kind of continues a la Oracle or whatever.
But I do understand that the market cap's significantly bigger.
So take that with a grain of salt.
But I feel like they're kind of in the sweet spot
from a positioning, from a sentiment,
from a valuation, and from a expectation standpoint
thank you for those thoughts mr wolfie can i can i make a comment on the tesla thing real quick
yes please so you there you guys are talking about um tesla and some of the other drivers that they could have.
And at the top, Amp mentioned GEV as a beat and raise.
The biggest standout on GEV, I own a GEV.
I like it.
I like the spin out.
It's a really solid business.
But the biggest driver was their power segment.
So I don't disagree that Tesla's energy and storage capacity story could be the next driver as we bridge between auto consumption, consumer, excuse me, auto consumer product to whatever the next driver is.
But if you, if you haven't just go take a look at some of this, some of the numbers that were posted from this GEV quarter,
specifically, they had a 44% organic growth on orders for their gas power and energy consumption business. So it's a really good, I know it's not the same business,
but it's a really good picture or snapshot on like the type of demand that
exists for broadening,
broadening out this energy space and this demand for additional energy
consumption and not just domestically, internationally.
So I just wanted to say that
because that is a good point.
I kind of try to be as realistic
about Tesla as I can be.
Sometimes I get labeled as a hater.
I'm not, but I do think
that there is a bridge
between their current business
and then the next whole thing
that are going to come.
And I don't think that
diners are going to be the
bridge point, but the energy thing, if they
could actually spin
that story and actually
show some sort of compounding
growth there, that is something that could kind of
carry the water or pass the
baton between two things.
I appreciate the thoughts there.
I really do want to hear it.
For me, the difference between a good and bad call is kind of timelines and timeframes
and hearing stuff and how far out they actually are as opposed to what's coming in the future.
That, to me, has seemed to be a big difference in some of these calls.
I do want to bring Nikki into it as well. Nikki, I don't know if you have any thoughts on the earnings
specifically or just earnings in general. We're getting close to the market close and
these numbers coming out about 15 minutes from Google, 20 minutes from the Tesla release.
But Nikki, I don't know if you have any thoughts on the conversation. We appreciate you being
here. Thanks for having me. Just want to make sure you can hear me. Okay. We got you. Awesome. Yeah, we got you. I wanted to touch on Tesla real quick. So,
you know, I'm not bullish or bearish. I'm pretty neutral on it right now, but I just wanted to
point out a few things on the tax side. So for anybody that doesn't know, I'm a financial planner,
so I'm kind of in tune with the new tax bill and everything that's going on.
And short term, very, very short term, there could maybe be something mentioned about people kind of front loading into vehicles because of the tax credit expiring September 30th of this year.
And on top of that, now there's a new car interest deduction or vehicle
interest deduction. But the vehicle has to be assembled in the US. I know Tesla might benefit
from something like that. So between that and that's only going to be going on for the next
till 2028 on the interest deduction. So I don't know if maybe by any chance there could be like
a rush for people to not just buy their cars, their, their, to get the clean vehicle credit
before September 30th. But also there's the clean energy credit that's going to be basically expiring at the end of this year.
So it's a complete, you know, throw it up in the air thing.
But maybe management says, hey, we're starting to see some demand because of the credits that are going to be expiring and the new tax deduction for interest on vehicles.
So that's just a thought that I had that I figured I'd share.
You guys may have talked about that before.
We haven't talked about it on this space.
I do remember actually when the bill got passed
or maybe it was around then,
I saw a Sawyer tweet it was.
Sawyer, you were talking about how on the website
they have never had the letters larger
that, hey, $7,500 tax credit here and leaving soon.
That definitely makes more sense. I wonder, have they been doing a lot of discount deals? I know
in the past, they've done the 0% APY. Nikki, I don't know if you've seen this or Omar or anyone
else. I know they've done that in the past, but this now feels like a nice time to pair up
doing that with the $7,500 tax credit still here.
Yeah, I'm not sure about that, but I do know there will be people eyeing to take advantage of this credit before the end of September.
I actually have a client that's trying to get his solar panel installed right now.
like now. So I know that this is a thing for people.
So I know that this is a thing for people.
Yeah. Oh, Mark, can I ask you though, have you seen,
have they done any of those like discount or like, you know,
deals with the leasing or anything?
Yeah, there's a ton of incentives right now, you know, 0% APR,
all that kind of stuff. They've also got the credit expiring. So it's a pretty amazing
system. They just apply it right at the point of sale. The government gives you $7,500 off your
car. It's kind of insane that a program like that even exists, but it's going to be ending September
30th. So you might see a little bit of front-loading in the U.S. market,
maybe some sales pulled forward into the current quarter Q3,
and you'd probably expect to see a little bit of a drop-off in the fourth quarter.
I appreciate everyone.
Stock talk.
We're getting close to the numbers coming out here.
I know you joined in on the conversation earlier and gave some thoughts,
but do you have any thoughts in general?
I haven't heard you talk about Google at all.
A couple other names are reported too, by the way.
Chipotle, IBM.
IBM's been a freaking ripper this year.
And a couple other names, but Google and Tesla, man.
Any thoughts on the attorneys coming up?
I'm not hearing him if he's talking.
I think he got rugged right there.
Yep, he just got dropped.
We'll get him back.
Yeah, that is no worries.
Quickly, one more time on times. Actually, let me get this tweet pinned up in the nest above uh on which with all of the times tesla is at 4 0 7 p.m eastern
is what time the numbers come out and then the earnings call is at 5 30 p.m eastern we're going
to listen to that live on here the google earnings call is at four sorry the google earnings number
numbers are at 4 0 3 p.m. Eastern.
So those are what turned to expect the two major ones.
ServiceNow, Chipotle, IBM, all around 4.10 as well.
I just pinned that up in the nest above.
So that are some times that you should be watching out for in the next 10, 15 minutes or so with some of these numbers.
Stock Talk, I see we got you back up here.
No, I actually saw that text.
He might be having some uh some technical difficulties here oh guys
that you guys at the phase where he has to reset his phone um rough times or do we have you yep
awesome uh okay so we're coming into some of these numbers here what is the first kind of
number you're going to be looking at a A couple quarters ago, we were like gross margin was the thing everyone
wanted to go look at. When we get this report coming out here, what are you kind of searching
for? It's not even a number that I'm going to be looking for. It's a section of the report
about more affordable models. For the last few earnings reports, they've sort of used the same
language. Production is expected to start in the first half of 2025. We're now in the second half of 2025. So they have to use some sort of different
language. They've already, Tesla China already teased the Model Y L, a longer version of the
current standard Model Y. So a lot of people are curious about when these things are going to go
in sale. So any sort of guidance on that front, I think will be probably more important to
investors than, you know, the revenue or EPS numbers.
Yeah. So that is generally on the outlook stage. Like he was saying there, I'm looking at the last
report. It says plan for new vehicles, including a more affordable models remain on track to start
production in the first half of 2025. As you said, second half now. Now,
in the first half of 2025.
As you said, second half now.
Now, plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models,
doesn't mean only affordable models.
Like, I guess they could say that Model YL is in there.
They don't tend to use this earnings to unveil any new products,
so I really wouldn't announce that today.
I feel like at these earnings, we hear Elon say a lot,
this is not the space for those type of things.
So I wouldn't even expect that today.
I mean, there's two reasons why they wouldn't talk about it.
One is to not hurt Q3 sales because with the EV tax credit ending, they didn't want to mess up the sales there.
And they want to probably juice more of the Q4 sales.
The other point is, to your point, as you said, Elon doesn't like to sort of announce products on the earnings reports. Although the last time I think they did that
was in the Q1 earnings call of 2021
when they unveiled the refresh model SNX.
That's like the last time I can remember
that they used an earnings report
to actually unveil a new product.
So it's been, you know, a few years since then.
Maybe we're in a similar...
They're going to have to at least update their guidance
given what they wrote in the previous report
yes for sure
for sure
Omar do you have anything else you'll be kind of looking at here
on this report
no I agree with Sawyer
I think you know sort of product announcements
announcements about the robo taxi service are going to be things that I'm looking for first. On a financial side, you know, obviously net income, are they keeping the business profitable? What's the cash position of the business? What's cash flow looking like?
What's cash flow looking like? Although the core auto business has seen margins contract
and the top and the bottom line decline, they're looking pretty strong from a balance sheet
perspective. They have pretty much record levels of cash. They have very little debt. The debt that
they have pertains to auto leases. It's backed by
customer revenue that's coming in for those leases. So they're in a pretty strong financial
position. You can be a bear and point to the core auto business not doing very well,
but I think they've got a very strong balance sheet here and they are not really in any risk of disappearing.
So I'm hoping to see that continue. If you saw the cash position start declining meaningfully,
that might be more of a cause for concern.
Now also, so one of the things that I also like to look at are these kind of like
charts, graphs, photos they include with them.
The one around current installed annual capacity, which I don't think too much people are going to focus on.
But there is the one around cumulative miles driven on FSD, and you can kind of watch that curve.
That's one that I also enjoy looking at as well.
So I wonder if that's going to keep up there too.
Talk talk. Oh yeah, Omar.
Yeah, we've actually seen that slow down a little bit. So that will be an interesting one to look
at for sure. I think they're probably just about to cross 4 billion miles, which is, you know,
pretty incomparable for the rest of the industry. So that's another area I'll definitely be taking a look at.
I think it slowed down because there really hasn't been an FSD update
since, what, late last year?
Like a major one?
So that's probably why.
Dark Talk, I want to get your thoughts there
on where your eyes will be going to on this report.
We're getting in about 10 minutes or so.
Yeah, I mean, I'll keep it much simpler.
All I care about is just updates on Optimus and the expansion of the robot taxi operating area.
That's literally all I care about.
I do love the energy business also.
I think it's underspoken about Bright Spot.
I know there was some commentary on it from Sawyer and Omar before I got in space, but I'm sure they covered it well. But that's a very bright spot of the business. even more electricity-driven future that we're headed to. I mean, everyone saw the story yesterday about the largest U.S. grid provider
basically setting an all-time record
for charges for electricity.
And now you have this massive AI mega trend
in the background,
data center build-out accelerating,
Trump lifting regulations on data center build-out today.
They're taking 90 executive actions
to remove red tape around data center build out.
What do you think that's going to do to electricity demand?
Not to mention the digitization of everything theme,
which has been going on for 20 years and will be going on for the next 20 as well.
All of these things point to one thing, which is we need way more electricity.
And so, yeah, I mean, a lot of my portfolio is concentrated around power generation and energy.
And I think energy storage will play a role as well.
You know, people think about peak gas peaker plants, right, traditionally as grid stabilization mechanisms.
And there's been a lot of work.
of research done in australia who was one of the early deployers of tesla mega packs on how
energy storage systems like the tesla mega pack can be used arguably more effectively but at least
as effectively as gas peaker plants in grid in grid stabilization now one of the big things one
of the big themes of the last decade which started started with the EV megatrend, when everyone was like, hey, the grid's not ready for it, has now graduated to the data center megatrend, where everyone says, hey, the grid's not ready for it.
This has been a common trend in every major technological trend for the last 10 or 15 years, and will be a common thread in every technological trend for the next 10 or 15. So what's the undercurrent there? We need more electricity and power generation,
but we also need more electricity and power storage, more grid offsets, more grid stabilization,
and energy storage plays a huge or can play, I should say, because it hasn't scaled yet
to play a huge role nationally, but it can play a huge role nationally and internationally in accomplishing that.
So, yeah, that is an upside portion for Tesla.
And if you look at it on a five year basis, the growth in the energy business and the
scaling of their energy business has been exceptional.
Like there's there's really no bad marks to give for their energy business for the last five years.
So yeah, energy storage is a very misunderstood area
because everyone dismisses it
because it's not a part of power generation.
And people are like, oh, power generation
is where the real bottleneck is.
Yeah, at the outset, that is where the bottleneck is.
But when you think about larger grid infrastructure projects, national or international grid infrastructure projects, grid stabilization, energy storage, these things are important, too.
So, yeah, that's kind of my thoughts on the energy storage thing.
But as far as the earnings go, yeah, I'd like to see more bright spots in energy.
more bright spots in energy.
I would like to see or hear material or at least interesting updates on,
on Optimist and what they may be doing going forward to expand their,
their autonomous operating area,
either in Austin or in another city.
And that's about all I care about.
I mean,
there's going to be comments with the business.
Obviously there's gonna be a lot of focus on like gross margins and all that
stuff,
but I don't think the average investor cares about like gross margins and all that stuff. But yeah,
I don't think the average investor cares about that.
And I,
I certainly don't.
So yeah,
that's kind of,
my focus is pretty,
pretty simple and straightforward.
We should be getting Google out here literally in any second.
Ooh,
Google is out.
I know we got the,
the gurgler up there.
What did you say?
So, Gerd. Yo, yo, yo. $3.31 I know we got the gurgler up there $3, what did you say? Set out gurg
Yo yo yo
$2.31
estimate was 2.18
on an EPS revenue
96.43 billion
versus 93.97 billion
expectation
Do you have a non-TAC number?
They report two different numbers
I don't see that one just yet expectation you have a non-tac number they they report two different numbers uh
and whatever i'll look for it the double beat google's initial move was higher there
bob revenue beat 13.6 versus 13.1 i just want to get this in here a lot of times with these numbers
reports everything's coming out right away so it it does take a second. Stick with us.
And honestly, when these Tesla numbers come out,
their Sawyer and Omar are going to be digging deep.
It's going to take a couple minutes before we can hear everything.
So stick with us.
We're going to get to you as quickly as we can on everything.
Google's initial move was up about 1%, 2%.
This is interesting, Evan.
The fiscal year CapEx, they see it about $85 billion.
Before, they saw it around $75 billion.
That estimate was actually lower.
So that's a big raise on CapEx spent.
Jansen Hwan.
Where is that going? The data center.
Boom.
Okay, I actually want to...
Why do multiple large companies report earnings on the same day?
report earnings on the same day?
Tesla, it should be out around 4.07,
4.08 p.m.
Does anyone care about B-Mobile?
You can spit it out if you want,
but I don't generally know.
Yeah, EPS
beat revenue beat 21.13,
what's this, $21 billion?
EPS of $24 billion.
Beat against limits of $269
up from $249
year over year.
Nothing really sounds out.
Oh, wait.
Can I tell you something? I just saw Omar's page
and what he's doing. I am doing that exact thing.
This guy is so smart. He uses his AI
just so much better than me.
Press this page until... What's up, yo yo yo i love the new logo though oh we haven't oh yeah the old logo was horrible and that lasted for so long
um that was yeah soft talk and chat shout out stock talk we appreciate the effort
hey listen it was a one day thing
it was just a spontaneous thing when we wanted to
start it
don't blame me
333 that's a fun number
yeah google
this capex one I find very interesting
even google cloud
13.6 above 13.1.
Other than the CapEx guide, which kind of was expected, pretty good numbers, I would say.
You know, I'm not even now, I don't think of CapEx as bad for the company.
I just think I see CapEx and think, ooh, NVIDIA.
NVIDIA is up one percent by
the way on that capex number it's funny that a couple of months ago that headline uh would have
been perceived differently and the fear was the other way right back in even if they cut capex
yeah if they cut capex then all these names would get smoked.
Now they're raising it.
NVIDIA 172.
Oh my goodness.
Google down 2 on the CapEx.
NVIDIA 1.2.
Google donating some market cap to NVIDIA.
These numbers should be coming out.
I now have my AI just spam
refreshing the page, so let's hopefully I get these Tesla
numbers quickly too.
Give it like a task. You are a
breaking news account.
No, look, I saw Omar's tweet and I was like,
damn, that's actually a really good idea.
Let me see.
But yeah,
406, 407, these numbers should be coming out right about now. 4-6, 4-7.
These numbers should be coming out right about now.
Yeah, last quarter it was exactly at 4-7.
Google, as Erger was saying, down 2.5 initially.
Las Vegas Sands, double beat.
A couple other ones.
That is smart, Omar.
All right. that is baro mar all right let's see if we get it in 10 seconds 10 no no i'm kidding you can't watch this there has there has been one quarter or two where like
companies like went way unexpected times hopefully this isn't one of those and we're sitting here for an hour.
It's not like Death Law's earnings
really matter. The stock can't do
what that was supposed to do, you know?
I haven't seen anything just yet. Gurg, did you see anything there?
I see the stock moving up a little bit.
You know, I'm definitely going to have a horrible
print like it usually
does and stock is up 10%
tomorrow, you know.
Did you take puts or calls?
I don't usually play
earnings.
I like to avoid non-binary
events, you know.
Google is down to
2.5% now.
Yeah,
I mean, the fact that they're...
What was the estimate on CapEx?
It was 73.
And they posted 85?
To 75, and they're posting 85.
Yeah.
I mean, that's...
I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the Mag7 names down on that,
and then the data center names up again.
The data center theme feels like it has real real legs if that's going to keep up
you gotta see what the other meg seven guys guide for but that's a big difference that 10 billion
in incremental capex it may not be much to google but it is a lot to these mid-cap data center
companies which have been capturing a lot of the business so i don't know we'll see i still
have not seen tesla ibm did cross ibm 17 million market one to 16.6 eps of 231 ibm dumping down
to like 18 boring name has been a winner this year so far well we talked about going into these
prints a lot of these if they don't just blow it out of the water, the way the stock price has increased so much,
it's going to be under a microscope,
and they're probably going to pull back a little bit.
Not the worst thing.
IBM last quarter was light as well.
They kind of gave it the benefit of the doubt after the quarter.
T-Mobile numbers.
I don't know if you read those out already, Evan.
We did.
We did.
Yep.
They're popping nice, by the way, T-Mobile, 3.5%.
And they finally are going to get those Starlink stuff out.
Evan, how many times have you clicked refresh?
My AI has been doing it.
Oh, well, there you go.
We got service now in one minute.
Almost forgot about that one.
Yep, 10 seconds here.
We'll see if we get another round of news releases.
Even Chipotle should be out 4.20.
Not a bad time for a food company to report earnings, I'd say.
Maybe that's what Tesla's waiting for.
Maybe they're really leaning into the 4.20 p.m.
We know the Tesla Diner opened at 4.20
I have Chipotle at 4.10
I should be right now
Chipotle just came out
Oh boy
First reaction on Chipotle is down
It's been rough this year as well
This is what happens when you don't have Chipotle in Puerto Rico
I can't help with your sales.
33 cents.
That's in line.
Service now being revenue.
They have a new CEO this year.
I think they slightly missed her in line on revenue too.
New CEO not by choice though.
Yeah, their CEO went to Starbucks.
But I mean, that's part of the last couple of quarters.
You just want to wash it all out.
If you want another scoop, just give them a fucking nudge.
Tell them you want some more meat in your bowl, you know?
That video was hilarious from Chipotle's CEO.
Eric.
Two plus missed on Revenue.
Revenue came in at $3.06 billion.
Market one did $3.11.
Do you have service now?
I'm looking at it.
It's probably down 19% this year now.
Service now ripped up
5% here. It's back over.
EPS are $4.09.
Market expected $3.57.
Tesla numbers
are out.
I don't have them yet, but I did see
a Sawyer tweet. PPS is a mess.
Revenue is a mess.
Gop income is a mess.
Stocks flat. I actually have
revenue as a beat on mine.
$22.5 billion. I had
$22.3 billion as my expectation.
That is for new vehicle on track
for 2025.
Yeah, for Tesla, a lot of
the headline prints are in line.
Tesla's moving up.
Wait, remains on track
for launch of a more affordable vehicle
in the first half of 2025?
I mean, in like
seven days, man?
Holy shit, they invented a time
machine.
Let's go!
First builds in the first half in June
and then volume production second half.
So they're already building it.
Is that what they're saying?
Okay, here's the thing.
Our focus remains prudently
growing our vehicle volume
in the CapEx efficient manner by using our
existing vehicle production capacity
before building new lines.
Plans for new vehicles that will launch in 2025 remain on track including initial production of a more affordable model
in one half of 2025 our purpose-built robotaxi cyber cab will continue to pursue a revolutionary
unboxed manufacturing strategy and is scheduled for volume production so what i am reading
is they said that they have already started initial production of a more affordable model.
I think that's what you have to read that as, unless
the intern messed up, but...
Yeah, I mean, unless
that was supposed to say second half, I don't know.
Stock's now
popping a little bit more, but relatively
fine, so...
Google's rebounding, Tesla's flat.
Give us a second here. Let everyone dig in.
Obviously, sometimes, even if there's confusion here,
confusion, you're going to get a little.
Just going to read out
Sawyer's tweets for him.
Honestly, perfect.
Who needs AI when you have an
MPI?
Me and Sawyer combined.
We're just AI.
Well, you've done a bad job so far.
We have record test drives in North America up to 20% sequentially,
giving the recent refreshes in our product portfolio
and rapid involvement in FSD supervisors.
Paramount, we maximize the number of prospective customers.
Those are on test drives it seems like a lot of interest there
tesla saying it gets its plan to get like 10 000 worth of uh nvidia gpus h100 equivalent gpus
during the quarter we continue to prepare for broader release of FSD supervised in China this year,
pending regulatory approval.
Oh, that's actually interesting.
CyberCab will adopt the company's revolutionary
unbox manufacturing strategy
with volume production scheduled to begin
in 2026, coming from Tesla.
Yeah, I don't think that the stock's
going to move at all, really, until the earnings call.
Well, Q's made a new high here hire is that a new all-time high it's probably being pushed by nvidia yeah tesla does say in this report they're gonna buy a couple more uh
nvidia gpus during the quarter well gpus i don't know what they are yeah you mentioned the video
gap it's broad broadcom's the one that's flying.
It's up almost 4% here.
I don't think that's an all-time high yet on the Qs.
I think we need another 10 cents.
Yes, you're right.
Where's the cash at?
$36.8 billion.
What was the last quarter?
Do they still have any Bitcoin on that balance sheet now you don't find out during this that 37
billion last quarter so cash did go down by a little bit they put that in their
10 Q something sometimes which gets filed a little bit later the cash
decreased by 200 million really not that much it's probably so changes in
restricted cash flow and financing blah blah so they're saying it's just financial terms wolfie so a few a few quarters i think it's two quarters ago uh tesla's stock
had a report that was like ho-hum and then the the leverage etf started to get bid and then the
stock started to follow um something kind of similar just happened with tsl l and then tesla
following uh shortly thereafter.
So I just want to monitor it because I want to see if it's something that kind of regurgitates.
That was, that's exactly the one I was last time.
Kevin Green pointed that out to us.
It was TSLL.
It was like millions in volume in the after hours.
Yeah, this last five minute candle on TSLO was north of 4 million shares.
Interesting.
That is pretty interesting, actually.
I'm seeing the free cash flow number.
It came in actually pretty weak, too.
146 million.
Wall Street won at 760 million.
All right. Can the MPAI come back? million? Alright.
Can the MPI come back?
I'm seeing some more good posts.
Mark, it probably
wants clarity around
what the hell they mean by that.
Because I am confused.
Up 1% now
at After Hours.
Tesla says
cyber
production.
Okay.
you know,
Sawyer and Omar,
do you know what year
did Tesla say about
cyber production before?
Now it says
2026
with volume production.
Did we have a year before
or no?
No, that's the same.
Yeah, we did.
Yep, that is the same
line copy-pasted from last time.
The AI
training computant in Texas
Gigafactory,
16,000
additional H200s
for a total of
67,000 H100 equivalents is what it says here.
You know, this whole H100 equivalents thing, I don't think it's something that should last
super long. I don't know what other people think about this, but that one headline that he had the
other day about, well, I don't know the number, but I got got thinking it was going to be at this price, but it wasn't.
Yeah, I find that to be a very confusing way to say it.
I could also just be dumb.
And also both could be true at the same time.
Yeah, so getting more GPUs.
I was looking at the chart as well.
They are projecting to bring in more GPUs
during the quarter as well
to continuously expand their capacity there. In the annual vehicle capacity area, nothing
changed as well. They're still saying Roadster in design development, construction of the
Tesla Semi and CyberCab, and the rest in production.
I don't think the numbers would have changed at all either.
Again, the Ernie's call, by the way, is at 5.30 p.m. Eastern.
We're going to listen to it in here.
That's probably the most important part out of all this.
And like I said, when these numbers come out,
we got to read through everything, digest it.
Sawyer's still going through the thing.
He literally just put out another post saying,
Tesla says our lithium refining and cathode production plants
remain on track to begin production in 2025.
On during production of critical battery materials
to the United States,
we are on course to begin domestic Tesla AI training capacity ramp through the end of September.
Chipotle is 4.5 billion miles traveled.
40 billion dollar by a mark from B.O.A.
Interesting, Bank of America.
Yeah, you said 4 billion miles traveled.
4.5 billion.
4.5, yeah, you were
saying we might get over 4, right?
Yeah, that's definitely ahead of expectations.
That's good.
Yeah, I'm looking at last time.
Whoa, it was a billion miles this last quarter.
So, one-fourth
of the mile, okay.
Or one 4.5
of all the miles that have ever been
driven on FSD were done last quarter.
You should ask AI on that math next time.
Yeah, so just to put that in perspective, Waymo recently announced that for their entire history,
since they started doing autonomous rides in 2020, they've done 100 million miles.
Just in the last quarter, Tesla did a billion miles.
That's a good one.
So let's break that down a quarter, 91 days normally.
That means, 91 divided by 10, they did Waymo's entire history every nine days.
There you go.
That's, you know,
sometimes it's just about
making the facts,
keeping them totally accurate,
but saying them in a nice, beautiful way.
Big, beautiful way.
Great facts.
Trying to tell them energy storage we haven't seen anything on energy storage let's page nine deployments kind of similar to last quarter but energy and services other gross profit
i just got a notification chipotle is down 10% now.
Jeez.
The earnings report is pretty light on info just across the board.
Is there any mention of RoboTaxi miles and stuff,
or is that all of his posts?
Nope.
They kept that vague and didn't say anything really.
Omar was saying that that jump in the cumulative miles driven is a lot from 3.5 to 4.5 billion last quarter.
Oh, from 2.9 billion as of December.
Yeah, so.
But we were reading through some of your tweets, Sawyer.
You know, we talked pretty – what do you think of that? I know you chimed
in and gave some thoughts. What do you think of the
Outlook one?
Do you kind of take that as
we have started the production
of that more affordable model already?
Yes, they've already done either pilot
or alpha sort of production, if you want to call it
that, beta production,
and just sort of qualifying everything, and then
volume production will start
in the second half of this year so they've already produced some of these things which is good
are you surprised we haven't seen that many leaks of it i know we've been kind of joking around on
the giga gas great show honestly maybe the best show um but uh about like these people looking
for that compact tesla i saw you guys were joking in the tesla diner it says like compact for like the size of the what car can fit in that spot and people are like guys it's here uh are you a little
surprised that we haven't seen too much of it i mean they just told us i'm a little surprised we
haven't seen more images and stuff of the model y l although my guess is it looks so similar to
the current y that it was already probably out on the roads but people just didn't recognize that
it was a larger y um my guess is they're probably working on the roads, but people just didn't recognize that it was a larger Y.
My guess is they're probably working on maybe more of a stripped-down,
cheaper version of the current Model Y.
So they'll have that, the current Model Y, and then the Model Y L.
And so you'll sort of have three versions of the Model Y is my guess.
Maybe it'll be a smaller version of the Model Y.
I don't know.
But nonetheless, they've clearly started working on these things in terms of pilot production,
so volume production in the coming months.
Yeah, it kind of seems like what Apple did with the iPhone 16.
They've got this big product. Model Y accounts for 50% of Tesla's automotive revenue, probably 50% of their total revenue.
And now they're making a slightly bigger version.
They're going to make a slightly smaller version
and try and squeeze additional utilization out of their factories.
A lot of their newer factories like Austin and Berlin,
they could be producing a lot more cars than they are today.
So if this slightly bigger and slightly smaller,
cheaper version of the product
can help squeeze some additional utilization out of those factories without a ton of additional capex.
That could be a positive development for the auto business.
Tesla put out a post with some language on there.
I saw Elon just retweet it.
Omar, is there anything just initially from what you're seeing that's worrisome to you?
I know you were kind of having these expectations on the numbers.
And by the way, the stock has reverted here.
It is down a little in after hours now.
But is there anything that's worrisome to you?
I wouldn't say, you know, it's that worrisome.
I mean, you did see the cash position decrease a little bit.
I think that's definitely going to be something to
keep an eye on especially with a lot of these credits expiring um the build out of their data
center which i think is really important they're up to about 67 000 h100s if you look at some of
their past guidance they were really supposed to be above, I think, 100,000 units by now.
So I'd like to see that progressing a little bit faster.
But pretty much everything is disappointing from a financial perspective.
Revenue down year over year, earnings down year over year.
That was not really a surprise,
given what we already knew about production and deliveries.
But they're not, I think, in a financially vulnerable position.
They have a strong cash position over $36 billion.
But yeah, the core business has seen better days.
By the way, Tesla, the accountant itself, put out a tweet.
A lot of the highlights on there, but the language they used at the top is not in the shareholder letter, so might as well read it.
Q2 2025 is a seminal point in Tesla's history, the beginning of our transition from leading the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries to also becoming a leader in AI, robotics, and related services,
in quotes, or in parentheses, Hi, RoboTaxi.
We officially launched our RoboTaxi service in Austin in June with our camera-only architecture
with neural networks trained on data from our global fleet of millions of vehicles.
Then they go into the highlights, which a lot of stuff of that is in the report,
but that kind of language at the start was was not there it was a little interesting i thought
it was interesting they they i know stock talk you love to focus i mean they do focus on that
camera only architecture being one of the really big things there okay yeah not a lot else in in this thing that wasn't in the report though
all right we're falling here now down 1.6 hours you're not wrong on your comment from before
though the the market is really waiting for what they're going to say on this earnings call
one of the cool things that they do i love these say.com questions actually i i think i'm surprised
more companies don't do this,
but they let you ask questions,
get questions from retail shareholders,
and you can see what those questions are going to be as well.
And one thing I did say,
normally I hear people,
the comments are like how bad some of these questions are,
but I heard one or two people saying,
oh, these are some actually good ones.
Maybe that was just in a public space
and they wanted to be nice, but yeah, I are some actually good ones. Maybe that was just in a public space and they wanted to be nice.
But yeah, I'm pulling that up now.
The first one is about Robotaxi.
We can dig into that a little bit more going forward, though.
I saw a good comment.
Someone was mentioning how the raised CapEx,
it's going to be immediately deductible under the new law.
So that's actually pretty smart, probably.
This comment from Tesla, I think, is important.
It says, our efforts to refine the RoboTaxi offering in Austin
are not location-specific and will allow us to scale
to other cities quickly with marginal investment.
Something Waymo
can't necessarily do.
I wonder what that marginal investment is.
I guess marginal
means it could just be nothing, just
fees and
stuff like that. Bureaucracy.
Yeah, appreciate that.
And logical, that is a very interesting point.
Does that go into effect in September or now?
What?
Yeah, that's a good question.
But I mean, the CapEx is in the future,
so regardless if it's now or...
Right? Because that's just a guide.
But it's this fiscal year,
so it's over the next two quarters.
And I don't know how much they've spent so far.
So let's say, give or take, they've spent half.
So let's say $42.5 billion of CapEx Google plans spent this year.
I wonder when they start to get that advantage.
But that was something I didn't even know.
I'm glad you brought that up.
So did you guys cover the OpenAI thing that just came out?
What just came out?
From the information, OpenAI is going to use $40 billion in new fundraising to develop data centers.
Founders Fund and Dragoneer Fund are both contributing $1 billion plus each.
There's a bunch of other investors contributing to it.
That's a lot of capital.
So it says record-breaking $40 billion
in equity this year.
Does that mean more?
Or does that mean...
What they've already raised? Yeah, I don't know.
Plus a little bit more.
Yeah.
Yeah.
We'll see. I don't know how people
can read the news that's going on
and not just instantly think, wow, NVIDIA.
Anytime there's a negative headline, there was one recently, what was it?
It was with OpenAI and Stargate that it wasn't going well.
And then the next day or something like that, OpenAI comes out, yeah, no, here's what we've done so far, and we're doubling down on this.
Now, you may not believe them. I know Elon doesn't. open ai comes out yeah no here here's what we've done so far and we're doubling down on this no you
may not believe them i know elon doesn't but there's nothing to sustain i mean jensen headline
you know the 500 billion isn't going to come right away obviously but i mean at this point
it feels like they're committing to this. There was that moment of hesitation when DeepSeek happened,
but everyone kind of looked past that and said,
it doesn't matter, we need compute anyway.
And now we're at a juncture where all the estimates are going up,
the CapEx is going up,
more and more data center deals are getting signed
at higher and higher premiums.
The cost of electricity is going up.
AI is becoming more capable.
It's a self-feeding loop because as AI becomes incrementally more capable and does more things,
the investment is going to increase in the infrastructure to build it.
And that is thereby going to make AI more capable, which is going to increase in the infrastructure to build it and that is thereby going to make ai more
capable which is going to increase the investment like this is how all technology works like all of
these things are not unique to ai or anything else it's just like these are just universal principles
of like technological development but um yeah i mean that's what it seems like we're setting up
for here and you know I was having
this conversation and I'm not I don't want people to mistake me as a permeable that's going to say
corrections are never going to come corrections will come we've had plenty of corrections in the
last five years too but I was talking with one of my um senior friends he's like in his 50s he's
an ex-hedge fund manager that I've talked to for many years on twitter and he was like sort of talking to me about how so many people on wall street are like
baffled at the lack of gravity in stocks in the last five years considering how much retail
participation there's been and like you know these retail favorite names not only survive the
corrections but just keep making new highs and he like, maybe it's the market saying something.
Like, maybe it's the market saying that this AI megatrend
actually is going to transform the economy
and actually is going to transform efficiency and drive margins.
And it may not be happening just yet for companies outside of software.
But, you know, is it going to get better?
I think it's a pretty hard bet to say otherwise.
Right. And I think once you make that, I think, safe assumption that it's going to get better,
it doesn't take much of an imagination to like, you know, try to speculate on what it could change.
And I think once you start doing that simple mental exercise,
you kind of realize that, like, yeah,
it could change the global economy in a bigger way than the Internet did.
And I don't think that that's far-fetched to say.
Is that going to happen this year or next year or, like, three years from now?
But, like, if we get highly capable AI agents that can be deployed in physical form through
advanced robotics and they can be deployed, you know, at scale in warehouses, you know,
autonomous software programs that can automate, you know, logistics and delivery and warehousing,
like the possibilities are just sort of mind-bogglingly endless.
So I don't know.
I'm obviously a mega AI bull, and there will be a ton of earnings-related volatility along
the way because people's expectations will fall along different points in that trend.
But it seems like everyone's just willing to dump insane amounts of money into this
theme at this point.
And it either ends terribly, where all this investment doesn't yield any actual tangible
benefit, which I think is unlikely, especially if you look at it on a 10 or 15 year basis.
Either that happens, which is what a lot of skeptics would say, or it does and it
transforms the economy. And I would bet that the latter is more likely. And so that's where I think
all this data center stuff is really pointing to and where all the spend is pointing to. I think
it's people with deep pockets, including the mag7 companies, including, you know, all sorts of private and
public investors who are betting that, yeah, this is, we're willing to spend money now and forego
ROI now and forego immediate intra-quarter or intra-year earnings to bet on this bigger pot
of gold at the end of the rainbow. I'm not saying that's my opinion. I'm saying that's what the industry is saying loudly right now. That's what the Mag7 are saying. That's what
Big Tech is saying. That's what these guys are saying. You look at the private market valuations
of these AI companies just going up like every month by billions and billions of dollars. Most
of them, let alone are not profitable, but make very little money relative to their valuations.
So is it a bubble? Yeah, it's a bubble. But bubbles can last a long time. And this one
has lasted for a while, frankly speaking. And, you know, I'm not brave enough to say when that
speculation is going to end. It will end one day. And for 90% of the companies that just rode the hype train to
the upside on valuation, they're going to get destroyed. But there's going to be 5% or 10%
of companies or maybe a few more that actually do provide value to that new AI ecosystem and
actually do provide essential products that not only will survive, but will probably be even larger market caps when that does happen.
But, you know, that's a hard bet to make.
So people just have to know that, yeah, there is a lot of hype here.
There is a lot of investment.
There is a lot of like enthusiasm and froth.
And no one knows when it's going to pop.
No one knows when it's going to pop. I certainly don't. So we'll see.
I certainly don't.
So we'll see.
I just want to say that Google Cloud grew 31.7%, and that's a high margin business.
That just speaks volume in itself to be able to capitalize off of it.
Google is back to basically break even here.
Listen to the earnings call a little bit.
AI overviews now has over 2 million users in the US.
Shorts now has, YouTube Shorts now earns
as much revenue per watch hour as traditional in-stream video.
Evan, how much YouTube Shorts you consuming on an average week?
So I get, people think YouTube Shorts is weird. I will tell you, I enjoy YouTube Shorts. I'm getting a average week? So I get people think YouTube Shorts is weird.
I will tell you, I enjoy YouTube Shorts.
I'm getting a lot of just like shows that I didn't know I like and I do.
I have watched all of Billions and all of Suits.
Not because of like actually going well with Suits I have,
but like I watch Suits because I got 75,000 clips on it
and I'll probably end up watching Billions too as well.
So YouTube Shorts is great.
It just shows me shows.
I love it.
If I want to laugh, I'm going to go to Instagram.
My algo kind of gets me over there.
And if I want to learn something, I'm staying on X.
But YouTube shorts, if you're a show person, it is fantastic.
But YouTube Shorts, if you're a show person, it is fantastic.
Some really good investing advice on TikTok, though.
Jeff Bezos, selling more Amazon.
Let me go and calculate how much we're through this.
Last time I saw we were like 54%, 55%.
Give me a couple of minutes to search that out there.
Edgar search.
If anyone has any more thoughts on TUSLA
that we haven't covered,
also, I really do want to hear
what everyone is expecting for the earnings call.
Obviously, Elon Musk can take it a lot of different ways.
We do have the say.com questions.
We do kind of know what will be asked.
Whoa, Bezos, sold a lot of shares here.
I don't know if you guys saw the video of him, LeBron, and Ken Griffin, but I guess it was
expensive. They're not like us. And then did you see the pivot of the song after? A lot of people
were talking. Would they put on Dan Ciccadero a deer no I don't
I don't know how to say
it in the right way at this point in time so I would
say just watch the video oh boy
must
down
so Bezos he sold
okay
that didn't work
why didn't that work
Omar can you teach
how to use AI to do math
oh shit
you know
my first thought isn't AI
Edgar search
god damn I should just
you're right why didn't I do that
that's what I've been doing literally the last like
two months like I've started
like my first thought it goes to ai now
instead of like googling it how many shares of amazon has jeff google ceo just said far in july
sorry go google ceo just said the search feature AI overviews has over 2 billion users.
2 billion?
2 billion users for the AI overviews on the search.
Mine said 2 million.
And I already said that before, by the way.
I saw Hamid hanging out with us. Hamid, have you dug into any of this?
Hamid.
Not in-depth, but... out with this for me to be dug into any of this not in depth but
sorry I just got a call
but just surface level
just digesting it still
Google's numbers look really interesting
AI overviews it's 2 million plus monthly
users get wrecked loser
love you AI Overviews, it's 2 million plus monthly users. Get Rekt Loser.
Love you, Amp.
Yeah, the number AI gave me back,
definitely not going to be right there.
Let me try this again.
Whoa.
Did VKTX, did those already come out out because that thing usually moves as well oh down three and a half percent it moved you know let me get through this We saw 1.5 billion shares.
BKTX missed on EPS.
Loss of 0.56, no, 0.58 versus 0.46 estimate.
But you know how those bios are.
Let me jump in.
All right.
So while we still have you up here, Sawyer, I appreciate you being here. I want to ask you about this earnings call that we have coming up and kind of what you're watching and listening for Elon to say. Quickly, I want to read off some
of the say.com questions before I actually go to you. The first one was, and so what say.com
questions are, these are questions that retail shareholders go in and ask and then gets upvoted.
The call is at 5.30 PM Eastern for anyone who doesn't know.
But the call, people put in questions here,
and then it gets uploaded based on how many shares you have.
So the questions at the top are the most likely ones to get read.
A lot of times they might skip some, they might combine them, whatever.
But the first question is, can you give me some insights
on how RoboTaxi has been performing so far
and what you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities, and supervisors?
The second question was, what are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining to unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use timeline?
So, Robotaxi, Robotaxi for personal use.
Question three, what specific factory task is Optimus currently performing?
And what is the expected timeline for scaling production?
Optimus question.
Next one after that was, can you provide an update on the development and production timeline for Tesla's more affordable models?
That actually would be an interesting one here.
Sawyer, what do you think of some of these Say.com questions?
I know you've probably seen them, so there's one that stood out to you more
than just what you're watching for on this earnings call.
Yeah, I mean, I think we all know
that we can probably expect Elon
just to mainly focus on RoboTaxi's economy and Optimus.
That's sort of the future of the company.
And EV sales are obviously down,
and I think Elon's going to be like,
well, the economy's tough and this and that.
It is interesting on the slide deck that they say, we continue to expand our vehicle offering, including first builds of a more affordable model, not more affordable models, plural.
So is that the Model YL? Probably not, right?
I'm assuming it's something else.
So curious more on that. They probably won't dive into that. Is that the Model YL? Probably not, right? I'm assuming it's something else.
Curious more on that.
They probably won't dive into that.
They're not going to want an Osborne.
We don't think the Model Y wasn't going to be more affordable, right?
Well, see, my theory was that there would be sort of three Model Ys.
You have either a smaller or stripped-down version.
You have the current version that's already been out, and then you have the larger version model yl so you sort of have this whole lineup of model y's and then maybe two versions of the model three a sort of more stripped down or
version of that and then just the standard one that's already out so that's sort of my theory
um because i don't it's kind of weird to frame the model yl as a more affordable model it is
more affordable in terms of if you want a larger three row from tesla it's probably of weird to frame the Model YL as a more affordable model. It is more affordable in terms of if you want a larger three-row from Tesla,
it's probably going to be like $20,000, $30,000 less than the Model X is.
But it's kind of weird to frame it as that.
So I have to imagine it's something else.
Could be wrong, but I don't know.
Do you have any thoughts there? I don't know. I've talked.
Do you have any thoughts there?
I know you were kind of in and out during that,
so it's no problem.
Yeah, I didn't catch all of it.
I just got back in.
Sawyer is definitely the person to defer to when it comes to the core business.
You know, like I said, it's not a focus of mine at this juncture.
I don't think the stock is going to hold up anywhere near where it is
unless we get material progress and updates on Optimus
and on the expansion of their autonomy program.
Like, I mean, like relative to the core business,
the stock is trading extremely richly. and that should be obvious to everyone.
You know,
the,
if they don't execute relatively quickly by relatively quickly,
I mean,
with the next couple of years on meaningful progress in robotics and,
the robo taxi program, that's going to be an issue for the stock. I have no doubt about that. So that's where my focus is. I think that's what everyone's focus
should be, whether you're long or short or whatever on the stock, you know, any kind of delays or
meaningful derailments in either of those programs would be bad because, I mean, by no measure is it a cheap stock, period.
You know, even the bit in the end and it does bother me because, you know, I've always been a testable on the story.
Right. And on the potential.
But I do find it does kind of bother me when like people make like other testables in the community make ludicrous statements, like the stock is cheap on a fundamental basis.
Of course, it's not cheap on a fundamental basis.
So that means that the premium that is being priced in
is delicate by its nature.
This is true for all speculative stocks.
Like if the story about the forward products deteriorates,
then that premium can disappear quickly.
And that's not just true for Tesla. I'm not singling out Tesla when I say that. That is true for all stocks that
bake in billions and billions of market capitalization on expectation alone. I'm not
saying it's right or wrong to do that. Many times market participants who bake in that expectation are right.
Like the people who bought Tesla 2015 to 2019, those people were right. And they were paying a
premium on the current business at that time in the expectation that it was headed for an
inflection point. And they were paid for it, the stock 10x. So it's not a bad thing. I'm just saying that it's a delicate thing, right? Speculative premium is a
delicate thing. That's what's important to understand about it. Not that it's like,
oh, I don't want to be in a stock that is speculative premium. Very often, those are
the best performing stocks. You know, Robinhood, Palantir, Tesla, NVIDIA all at stages of all these stories the stock was not not always but there
were stages in all these stories where the stock was priced according to and what the market
believed was an impending opportunity and the premium that tesla traded on their core business
in 2019 versus the premium they trade on today today. First of all, today's is a
much bigger premium in terms of dollar market cap perspective, but it's a very different one.
It's a premium that's based on an entirely different outcome, right? In 2015 to 2019,
the buyers of the stock were expecting electric vehicle penetration to increase in the United States. That happened rapidly from 2018 to 2022-ish. We saw a massive inflection in growth
in the United States, a big jump up in overall adoption. And it did fizzle out in terms of
how quickly it was happening in the last few years. And that's part of the reason why Tesla
and other EV stocks traded poorly post that deceleration.
But now this premium is about an entirely different story, which is, will they win or
be a winner in humanoid robotics and in the autonomy game?
And right now, based on where the stock is trading, even after today's pullback, no matter
if it even goes down 5% or 6% after today's call, where the stock is trading today, the market is saying, yeah, they are going to win some level of market share.
That's what the market is pricing in currently, that they are going to win some level of market share in these industries. the stock will suffer and on the contrary if they execute better than expected or sooner than
expected and deploy optimists more quickly than the market expected or or expand their region of
autonomous operating area more quickly than the market expected then that's bullish and the stock
will probably go up so i don't think it's overly complicated. Based on the core business, it's a richly valued
stock, but most shareholders care less about the core business and more about the future businesses.
And so as long as the track remains solid for those future businesses, the stock can probably
hold up and probably go higher. If it doesn't, probably going to go down. I don't see it as any
more complicated than that. I frankly do think even, not just because it's confirmation bias for me, but I don't think 80% of the shareholders give a shit about the core business for Tesla, like at all.
Maybe there's a faction of like institutional shareholders that do, but I don't think most of retail cares about it at all.
That's an interesting headline.
Sorry, you just tweeted out.
Tesla confirmed, I'm guessing this is in the photos
in the slide deck somewhere,
that they've begun testing supervised FSD in London.
Yeah, in the slide deck at the bottom,
there's a bunch of photos,
and they list Paris, London, Sydney, and Rome.
And they've released videos of all the other test drives,
but I was like, wait, have we heard of London yet?
So that's an interesting addition.
It was wild.
I was scrolling through that same thing and seeing the steering wheel on the
right side, like threw me off.
Yeah. It looks so weird to see that.
I was expecting it to be like a no-driver robo-taxi picture
with the person, like the security monitor or safety monitor
or whatever on the right side.
But then I saw the wheel.
I was like, what's going on here?
Monitiv, I know you sent me a message.
You're listening to the Google earnings call. I don't
know if we got you in the other ear or something, if there's anything that stood out to you
at all. I do know the CFO is talking right now, could be giving some forward guidance,
maybe doesn't want to go away from it, and it's totally okay.
No, I mean, look, the numbers are solid. I think there is probably a floor that's gone off probably 180s or so, 170, 180.
If things look really bad, that's probably the new floor for Google.
These numbers are solid.
Next year, the next 12 months, they're going to make more than $10.
So you're talking about forward numbers, somewhere in the 17 to 19 range that's what a 30 30 percent discount 35 percent discount to to s p's uh multiples
so i mean look it's they're executing search is not dead far from it search is still growing
is not dead far from it, search is still growing.
Google Cloud's doing fine, you know.
Yeah, they're expanding CapEx, but they have demand,
so they're expanding CapEx.
I mean, CapEx directly impacts cash flow,
so your free cash flow is gonna go down
when CapEx goes up.
They are still buying back in large quantities,
or they were, so what is it?
The overall share count is down 2.4 percent
uh quarter over quarter so there's a lot of good things here i don't see anything particularly
negative uh you know additional capex yeah so what that's i mean
the ceo said two quarters ago that they'd rather spend too much than too little.
And they're sticking with that.
They're spending.
The only thing I don't like, if there is anything at all that I have to nitpick,
the headcount is all-time high again.
They're really not cutting.
So whatever they're cutting on one side, they're hiring back so it's probably you know way beyond time to be looking at the
cost side of the equation and they've not yet that's that's probably going to bite them
other than that i don't see any problems the business is executing just fine
I'll go back to the call. I'll come back in about 20 minutes.
i'll go back to the call i'll come back in about 20 minutes
I appreciate you there. Monitive. Yeah, that call started at 4.30.
If we really wanted to, we could have gone full Google call and the full Tesla call,
but that would have been an interesting little day we got going on there. We got Mead coming back up.
Sam Solid, appreciate your thoughts on these spaces. You got any thoughts on the earnings?
I know you chimed in a little bit here and there, but I don't know if there was something that stood
out to you. Maybe you haven't heard that much or maybe you want to double down on.
Yeah, I mean, I'm more focused on the cloud and data center growth. We've seen from both Tesla
as well as Google that they are not stopping CapEx. In fact, I was actually very surprised to see that Google actually raised its CapEx
by about $10 billion after being flat last quarter.
So it is good to see the continued CapEx spend on that.
One thing that's actually flying under the radar is ServiceNow.
They actually reported earnings as well after hours.
Maybe it was mentioned before I came on.
But, I mean, they're just killing it at this
point uh much higher margin business when it comes to the cloud sector but the rpo growth which is
the remaining performance obligations that is the contracted amount of work they have that isn't
accounted for as far as billing goes that grew almost 30 percent uh the stock is up almost eight
well it was up nine%, 8% before.
I think it's like about 6.5%, 7% now, but still pretty phenomenal earnings for a company that's probably going to end up being larger than Salesforce in the near term, in my opinion.
But yeah, I mean, it's a margin expansion story.
It's a growth story as well, still growing at 20% plus for a company that's over $300 billion
market cap. This is a phenomenal company to own. I've really enjoyed owning this company for a
while and continue to be a happy shareholder. But overall, demand is just strong, especially
seeing a lot of the agentic AI features being released across the board with a lot of these
product companies. It's only a matter of time until you could start using Grok inside
your Tesla to control the auto controls in the car. I know right now, Grok is just more of a
chatbot or a voice chatbot of a lot of cars or a lot of the Teslas, but man, I cannot wait until
I could tell Grok to do something that's going to be integrated with my calendars, my phone,
and so on. It's just a serious, exciting time to be in, man.
Oh, I see Grant Cardone down there.
Very nice, very nice.
I appreciate you, Sam, and your thoughts there.
So if I could ask you, I want to circle back to some of those say.com questions
uh and if there was any one of those that you stood out there actually sometimes we get some
not so great questions there those ones seem to be ones that will get answered and kind of relevant
yeah let me just pull them up real quick so i can see them
in general i think more companies should do this, kind of getting those shareholder questions.
I think it's a good idea.
And this is a great way to go and do it.
Maybe there's better, but I think it's smart.
So on the first question,
can you give us more insight
on how the Robotex has been performing?
Elon probably will give us some insight.
My guess is that Elon will talk a little bit
about what they expect in terms of
geolocation or locations expansion in the coming months. Elon did hint that the California
regulators have been actually surprisingly nice to them because historically California hasn't
been the best to them in the recent years. So that suggests to me that they should be able
to launch there in the next, by know, by September, it sounds like.
Arizona could happen as soon as next month, potentially.
Not sure if they've already been testing out there already or not.
And then, of course, we just heard today that,
and I reached out to the Nevada DMV directly,
And they told me, one sec, let me pull up the email.
and they told me, one sec, let me pull up the email.
They said, our director of the DMV, deputy director, and program manager for the autonomous vehicle team sat down last week with members from Tesla in the governor's office and discussed the process for establishing the autonomous vehicle program in Nevada.
in Nevada.
They also said no steps have been taken outside of just that communication,
but nonetheless,
it's good to see that they're starting these talks now and should expand much
more quickly than,
you know,
Waymo was able to over the last few years.
another thing.
Just throwing this out there.
There was an important,
important remark,
I think in the earnings report where tesla
said let me pull it up where is it
they said our efforts to refine the robotaxi offering in austin are not location specific
and will allow us to scale to other cities quickly with marginal investment. So I think they're just telling us we can expand to the Phoenix metro area, to San Francisco,
LA and others and Las Vegas pretty quickly without having to like, I think Waymo typically
the way they have done it, at least in the past has been, they sort of map the area for
maybe like six months and then test for another six months before they formally launch in the area for rides 12 months later. So Tesla's telling us, and we've already
seen this, they've doubled the geofence area in Austin within a span of like a few weeks.
And they're already expanding or already testing. We've seen them with LiDAR rigs,
validation rigs, far, far out of both the current geofence of Waymo and Tesla within like probably
40 miles outside of Austin. So it sounds, it seems like we could be expecting a pretty big
geofence location expansion in the coming weeks and months from Tesla, at least in the Austin era.
One thing I did want to throw in there, I love that you are going in and confirming these stories and
we see that headline out there and then we actually get what's happening there so when i
started this out by introducing sawyer as the best tesla news source out there and that's some
capital j journalism and why i'm a i'm a big fan of sawyer's you should definitely be following him
and you know what check out his subscription feed too as well.
He posts all his news for free,
but there's some extra stuff there.
I've been subscribed for the entire time that he's had it, I believe.
And this is a great time.
So go and check that out, Sawyer.
We appreciate you and all that coverage
you got going on and all that extra stuff.
Yeah.
A couple of the other questions though I thought were
kind of interesting
can you talk about the benefits of Tesla
investing in XAI
into XAI
I don't think that was a top question a day or two ago
that looks like it sneaked up
now it's five
that's interesting
so we know the Tesla shareholder meeting
is happening in November.
The proxy is supposed to come out, I think it's September.
Gives people a couple months to sort of digest it all and figure out what they want to do.
I don't know how much Elon is realistically going to go into this.
Not only from just like a legal sort of standpoint, but also we already know that if it were him,
Tesla would have invested into XAI by now.
So it's sort of on the board right now.
I don't know how much they would do,
maybe $5, $10 billion, something like that.
But I did put out a long post
and sort of going over some of the reasons
that XAI is a separate company in the first place.
But I think an investment makes sense. I don't think there's going to be any merger the first place. But I think an investment makes sense.
I don't think there's going to be any merger or anything,
but I do think an investment makes sense at this point.
I think the reason we didn't see it in 2023
was because XAI was really only formally announced
in July of 23.
And the shareholder meeting,
I think had already taken place at that point in May.
And then last year, there was was this we had to sort of
focus on and the board had to focus on getting elon's compensation package revote passed but on
top of that they probably did not want to add the liability of tesla investing into xai while they
were still a delaware company which would have opened them up potentially to more lawsuits, right?
But now that we voted last June, over a year ago,
to reincorporate Tesla into a Texas company,
and they've now since changed their bylaws a couple months ago,
you now have to own 3% of outstanding Tesla shares
to be able to have a similar lawsuit or case against Tesla
in the way that this sort of one that was
introduced, I don't know, seven years ago now, or however many years ago was against Elon for his
2018 compensation package case. So now I think is the right time to invest in XAI. Unfortunately,
it seems like the valuation is upwards of $200 billion. And it would have been nice to get in more of at the $20 billion level
when they first did their first Series A round.
But I just don't think it was in the cards at that time.
So I don't want to fully blame the board
because I don't think this is necessarily
entirely their fault.
I think if this lawsuit
with Elon's compensation package case hadn't happened,
I think we would have
already invested into XAI by now. But I think because of that, it complicated things last year,
and they just didn't want to add the risk while they were still a Delaware company.
But now that they're a Texas company, they've had enough time to write up this proxy and make it
ironclad from a legal perspective. I think now is the right time. So we're probably going to hear more about that in September.
I also know that whole solar city thing from,
from a while ago is something that doesn't want to be repeated to.
Yeah. Yeah, no doubt.
Yeah.
So do you think that's why Elon came out blatantly the other day and was like, no, whenever they were talking about merging XAI,
do you think maybe there's like a legal thing,
like just completely quell everything for now?
I don't think Elon's response would be hindered by legal.
I think he would say what he wanted and someone would come out later and say,
look, I mean, Elon hates being a public company.
We all know this.
Like the only reason he went public is because he kind of had to,
like they needed to raise money. The reason SpaceX hasn't gone public is because
you introduce all these problems and issues and you have to like do these quarterly reports and
people just drag you through the mud if your financial performance isn't good.
And Elon is like such a vision guy, a mission vision focused guy that his sort of plans are
10, 15 year plans, not one to two of plans are 10-, 15-year plans,
not one- to two-year plans, and that's the way the Wall Street might like.
So that doesn't really set you up well for performance. And we've sort of seen that with
Tesla, right? Optimus and RoboTaxi opportunities are incredible, but they take a really long time
to play out. And investors are impatient, but the investors that XAI has and SpaceX have,
they're in it for like 10 to 20 years. I remember back in, I think it was 2017, 2018,
Elon told investors such as Fidelity and whatnot, that they shouldn't expect to get back any profit
or get back their money for like 15 years or something. And they were like, yeah, that's fine.
I mean, try telling that to like a Wall Street portfolio manager. That's not going to fly. So I think, and then you also have the
issue of Elon wanting a certain percentage voting control at Tesla. He stated this already that
he feels uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI and robotics if he doesn't have 25%
voting control. And right now he doesn't. he has about 13%. If he gets this compensation
package back, and that verdict is supposed to come in around December, November this year,
then he'll be closer to maybe 20%. And then we'll probably, it's possible that Tesla introduces
Elon's new compensation package with this next shareholder vote this November. I don't know,
we'll see. But I just don't think Elon wants to be a public company. I don't know. We'll see.
But I just don't think Elon wants to be a public company. I do see a lot of synergies between XAI and Tesla more long-term, especially with Optimus. Eventually, XAI is just not going to
have enough data, and they're going to want as much real-world data as possible. And I think
that's where Tesla's Optimus robot sort of comes in. And we've already seen them working together with their Tesla.
Tesla gives them mega packs to be able to use for their data centers,
you know, to regulate the power needs.
And I think, you know,
Grok is already available in some Tesla vehicles and expanding to more.
I think that those partnerships will continue to grow,
but I just don't think a merger makes sense right now.
And I know that sort of doesn't make sense to merge later
when the valuations of probably both companies are much larger.
But I think Elon just wants to wait as long as possible.
The valuations of these AI companies,
and some of them, OpenAI, them are pretty freaking high.
We were talking about it.
XAI is $200 billion. SpaceX is $400
billion. Tesla is a trillion.
Which one would you rather be in at this point?
The evaluation...
I mean, take your pick.
Tesla's liquid, right? You can get out easier
than private investment.
But just a year ago...
If they were all public, though, SpaceX would be the one
to be in because that
in my opinion has the fastest revenue growth ramp of any of those three companies and tons of room still.
SpaceX is going to be huge, much, much, much larger than Tesla, in my opinion.
than Tesla, in my opinion.
The thing, though, is
if this Optimus theme really does blow up,
like, you know, it maybe has the potential to do,
it sees that way.
I don't get the XAI one as much as the other two. Why would I pay $200 billion for XAI right now?
Last thing you said?
Why would I pay $200 billion for XAI right now
when I can go in and get some
AI exposure like Optimus
or SpaceX through that way?
Maybe I'm done.
We'll see.
XAI, remember, includes X2. X.com is part of XAI. or face x through that way maybe i'm done we'll see well xai remember you're giving me these too
right so x.com is part of xai as well which before when twitter was public was roughly a 50 billion
company so you could argue you know 50 billion of it is under 50 yeah so and then the combination
of the two is a stronger entity.
And part of the reason they need the $200 billion valuation
is the massive cost of data centers to run these AI machines, right?
So he's, I think, investing heavily in building massive data centers
with tons and tons of GPUs.
Speaking of, I'm passing it. Did you guys know that there is a swedish company that took the name h100 group no they have nothing to do with ai they are just a bitcoin treasury company
i thought that was one of the dumbest things i've seen today sorry i was just scrolling i mean can
you imagine if xai were a part of tesla the amount of cash that they would need to build this massive amount
of compute i i just can't imagine that investors certainly two years ago that they would have been
happy with it because tesla's cash pile is what 37 ish billion xai is about to build a 25 billion
dollar gpu center i mean the cash needs are insane it would be a cash drain on uh on tesla and nobody would
like that and yeah it would be bad this is not like google which generates what like 100 billion
dollars a year in income and then meta which generates generates i think like 40 or something
tesla does like seven or eight billion a year in income if that this year so it it just would have
been a weird situation had they needed to get tens of
billions but they wouldn't have been able to access it because they're a public company but
because they're private company it's a lot easier to raise that money
no that does make sense that that part well the part of it not being combined with tesla makes
makes a lot of sense actually when you kind of explain it like that. Have you been able to back in how much you estimate?
So Elon put out this thing,
hey, we expect to have this much H100 equivalent compute
at a certain point, and it was a massive number.
But like, you know, the H200 is better,
then you go to the Grace Blackwell,
you go to GB Ultra and stuff like that.
I don't know how you can back into what he actually said.
Yeah, I think there's sort of a couple of things to look at here is is that he says h100 equivalent and then i think
blackwell is like four times better than h100 in terms of performance don't quote me on those
numbers but somewhere around there and then you have maybe tesla's dojo chip plays a part there
maybe some of it's coming from amd i don't really know i. I think there's a lot of speculation right now on X that
XAI will buy compute and Dojo chips from Tesla. But I'm not sure if Dojo is really
competitive enough, not only from a performance standpoint, but maybe even a cost standpoint.
I don't know. Dojo 2 is supposed to start production later this year. And then I think
Elon tees Dojo 3 by the end of 2026.
So maybe at that point it is good enough
and they just buy it right from Tesla.
But right now I think NVIDIA is sort of the place to get them.
And he said that number in five years.
So if you figure like 20X improvement in chip speed
compared to H100s,
and he said 50 million H100 equivalents.
So it would be like roughly two and a half million
top of the line GPUs of five years from now
is what you would need, or probably some combination of GPUs
that would probably be on the order of like five to 10 million GPUs going live.
It is absolutely insane.
The numbers that he's throwing around are insane, but so is Sam Altman.
I feel like NVIDIA might have a lot more run.
And Mark Zuckerberg.
And Zuckerberg, yeah.
And Google just said an extra 10 billion right there.
I don't get how people can... get you it has to be the valuation play but it has to be like
this company is just so big but when you look at the valuations is I'm sorry I
gotta stop talking about a video see the CFO said that 2026 capex will be even
higher
I wonder where all that money is going to.
From what I understand, they are roughly 60% on internal costs and 40% going to NVIDIA related stuff. Remember, there's also the rest of the infrastructure that goes around with it.
Remember, there's also the rest of the infrastructure
that goes around with it, right?
So even if it's 50-50, there's gonna be a huge chunk
going to the NVIDIA ecosystem,
maybe a small chunk going to AMD.
I don't know if Google has an AMD cluster,
but it is what it is.
Point of making us,
for many months, ever since that, you know, whatever, what is it, like March or so, when all that noise from China happened with their, you know, L model,
with their, you know, L model,
I've probably been the lone voice here
supporting Nvidia's growth and saying that, you know,
there's really nothing, there is zero data
to support the thesis that it's slowing down in any fashion.
It certainly will at some point in time.
But in the meanwhile, we are just at the beginning
of the, you know of the Blackwell cycle.
And we are almost certain to see the 80% margin that I've been predicting.
It could be surprisingly this quarter, though I don't honestly think so.
But certainly next quarter, I think we're going to touch that 80% gross margin.
So, NVIDIA is in a great place. But so are many others. Certainly next quarter, I think we're going to touch that 80% gross margin.
So NVIDIA is in a great place, but so are many others, right?
Arista, for example, is going to get its share of the network edge with all these new data centers.
You know, ALAB, Credo are going to get their parts and, you know,
retimers and some of the other stuff.
So AMD is also certainly going to get its share too, right?
So it's...
Broadcast, also up 3% in after hours.
Of course, because they do all the final design integration
packaging for Google.
So Google is one of their largest customers,
so outside customers.
So yeah, when Google increases its CapEx
and a lot of that CapEx coming from internally,
you know, from their own ASIC,
yeah, it's a big benefit to Broadcom.
and honestly we we started a lot of stock like the tesla battery segment my whole thought as
you were also saying that we do we have enough energy do we have a stable grid that can actually
bring energy to all this power hungry which will will probably be more efficient. So maybe, you know, there are
some gains that happen with this
naturally, but we do not have enough power
energy grid.
You know, state of stability. You can't
build this in Texas. Are there any data centers
in Texas with your
grid just by yourselves?
I guess it would be not many.
But... Evan, the way
that they're going to solve the energy problem is for every new data center that goes up, they're going I guess would be not many. But... Evan, the way that... That is what my mind was doing.
The way that they're going to solve the energy problem is for every new data center that goes up,
they're going to start building the power to support it using solar right next to it.
I mean, basically the type of strategy that Elon is doing,
even with Tesla supercharger stations,
where they have a solar farm right next door that's generating power,
putting it into Tesla batteries and that's powering the Tesla superchargers.
And they're going to have to do that for data centers because there's no way the grid can handle it.
So, and then the closer you are into the local.
Yeah, go ahead.
Hamid, yesterday, G. Varanova said their backlog is 55 gigawatts, their backlog for gas turbines.
So, yeah, so you're going to have a lot of solar, you're going to have gas turbines
running at night when solar is not generating, and eventually at some point in time nuclear base load power
will start increasing but that's years away still right it takes time to build that out
the only way to get get through between now and then is a combination of you know
solar and uh and battery and uh and natural gas.
One specific person wants us to try some big, beautiful coal.
I don't know if I buy on that one, but...
I imagine some of these... These GPUs can take up a lot of energy.
I wonder how big a solar farm would have to be to power all of that at this point in time.
Maybe it's just taking a certain amount.
I don't know.
I'm not smart enough to be able to know that, but I did see even some comments from President Trump talking about it,
that that's kind of having each of these AI data centers having their own power generation directly connected to it.
Doc Talk, I know you were talking about that earlier, kind of the power generation side of it.
And as we're always evolving, that tends to be a concern around new technology
oh actually that was my bad
i know you got your haircut you spent two hundred dollars for your haircut do you think it's worth
it i've not spent two hundred dollars i've seen him it's definitely not worth his talk talk. Oh my god.
That was great.
That was great.
That was a good time.
I like that. That was a good job.
Meat out of left field right there.
That was beautiful.
Stock talk. He knows.
That's why I can give him a hard time.
I'm all for the jokes.
I'm all for the jokes evan does plenty of it
like the red lobster joke people really think i read love red lobster now
i think you just think that you probably have not gotten to any comments i've gotten a lot
of comments about it um stock talking you got some stuff uh whatever i wanted to get your final
thoughts on uh some of the say.com questions which i could read off to you if you want but what we're talking
there about the kind of power generation ai hapex is going up across the board everywhere
do we have the power generation for that and kind of tesla the whole megapack business playing into
it yeah i mean power generation has been a great investment in the last 20 years.
It's going to be a great investment in the next 20 years.
That's what I said.
And I stand by that.
And it doesn't really even just have to do with AI.
I mean, the data center build out is going to put an enormous amount of stress
on global power producers.
But it's not just the AI trend.
It's like, it's everything, right?
It's like robotics, it's not just the ai trend it's like it's everything right it's like robotics it's data
centers it's more and more digital devices becoming more and more pervasive more and more
advanced digital devices each user of digital devices owns more digital devices than ever
and people have phones laptops personal computers personal computers, you know, your
thermostats are digitized now, like completely digitized. Everyone has one of those Nest
thermostats that takes more power than a traditional thermostat. You have, you know,
people are putting more, I mean, everything, everything is like feeding into this electricity
mega trend that we've been on for 20 years and we will be on for
the next probably more than 20 years. I mean, it's not going to stop because like the digitization
and technologization, if that's even a word of everything is, it's like not a new thing and it's
not going to stop anytime soon either. The data center trend is just like one new angle to that.
That's going to expand rapidly in the next five or 10 years.
And we've seen the type of power demand that these data centers have.
So if I was going to be just straight up about it,
I think everyone should have some kind of exposure to power generation in their portfolio, whether that's exposure to nuclear energy, exposure to the grid companies, exposure to the, you know, commercial electricity companies, exposure to the guys that make these cables of all kinds, exposure to, I mean, rare metals like magnets all of this stuff is just like a super
mega trend to the up and to the right like you i don't like saying you can't lose but
i think it's pretty hard to lose investing in like the power mega power and electricity
mega trend in the next decade i think it'll be very hard to lose doing that. There's going to be a lot of hype cycles in it where like intra quarter stocks get ahead of
themselves prior to their earnings. And you'll see, you know, you'll see the typical minus 20%
cool offs and those hype cycles on earnings reports. Like it's nothing new. People should
be used to that by now. I mean, you shouldn't be an investor if you're not used to that kind of
stuff, but, um, or you shouldn't be a single stock investor, I should say, if People should be used to that by now. I mean, you shouldn't be an investor if you're not used to that kind of stuff.
Or you shouldn't be a single stock investor, I should say, if you're not used to that kind of stuff.
But that stuff will happen. But the overall trend, I think, will be up and to the right for all those types of companies.
Because we're going to need to get more creative, too.
And where there is need for innovation, there's usually need for investment.
And where there's need for innovation and there's usually need for investment. And where
there's need for innovation and investment, there's usually investment upside and ROI.
So I think it's really that simple. And you look at SMRs, for example. I've traded the SMR stocks,
like New Scale Power, and I've traded them and done very well on them. The only one I own sustainably is Centris Energy because it's the only
uranium enrichment stock in the world. I've talked about it many times on here, but,
uh, people wonder why these SMR stocks are like not crashing, like why they're, they're holding,
you know, five, seven, $10 billion valuations, uh, with no revenue and many years from commercialization.
And I think the simple answer is that the market knows innovation is going to be required
in nuclear energy in order for it to play a significant role anytime soon.
Because anyone who knows anything about traditional nuclear power plants is that they take a long
time to build.
And they're costly.
I don't think the cost is as much of a factor,
like throwing a couple billion bucks at these plants isn't, I don't think much of a factor
considering the level of investment that's happening in energy right now. But what is a
factor is the ability to scale and deploy these facilities commercially in a promising timeframe, right? That's hard.
And that's where the SMR hype, that's why it's in the markets, because people know that what is
likely going to be one of the solutions is, you know, 2028, maybe end of 2027, you'll probably
have a commercially viable product
from one of these guys.
It may not even be one of the pure plays.
In fact, I think the pure plays
probably have less of a chance of doing it
compared to something like...
It's totally not going to be.
Yeah, I agree.
Definitely not.
That's what I'm saying.
I think they have less of a chance of doing it
compared to somebody like BWXT Technologies
or compared to somebody like one of the major
energy companies that
have that all have investments in this stuff.
So I agree.
It's usually the incumbent players that do it.
But the market is pricing some level of chance that these pure plays solve it.
But the point of this is not to defend the market caps of these companies.
I'm just noting the market attitude towards this theme, I think, is there for a reason, because innovation
is going to be required not only in nuclear energy, but in all sorts of power generation
in order to make this happen quickly enough. Because the data center build out, like everyone's
focused on the chips, and rightfully so, because they enable this whole thing. And China's focused
on the chips too, right? They want our chips.
They're using rare earth metals as sort of a chess piece, a negotiating tool to try to get access to those chips.
We saw that concession made, what was it, yesterday morning or this morning, the headline that came out from the White House where they said they'll allow H20 chip sales to China in return for rare earth metals.
So the game is being played there. wants chips and that is step one but step
two is you need enough national power to power all these data centers without you know making
the rest of the country inoperable and that's the issue that we need to solve now we don't have a
chip problem anymore we have access to all the chips. Taiwan's not going to cut us off from the chips. We're their biggest customer. So we don't have that problem. sustainably and to meet all of our other power generation needs, which, as I mentioned, with digitization
and technologization, I don't even know how to pronounce that, whatever, of everything,
that's also increasing power demand.
So we need to solve for those things.
And innovation is required to do so.
And innovation is required to do so. And innovation requires...
Do you think the grid...
Do you think Texas' grid is...
It's terrible.
Yeah.
So you think that it can change?
You think you're about to have a big problem in the next little bit?
I mean, I think more investment...
Is Texas the worst state in the union because of the grid?
I think more investment is required.
I mean, I think...
Look, I was talking about energy storage earlier.
I think energy storage can play a great role in grid stabilization in the next 10 years or so.
You know?
So, yeah, we need more energy storage investment.
We just flat out need more grid investment nationally in a big way.
Like, to the tune of multi-trillion dollars.
And that won't happen immediately.
But I think it will happen over the next decade. And that comes from many angles, right? That
doesn't just come from the traditional purveyors of electric infrastructure that comes from
big tech now to like their money is also at play here, right? Like, you know, keep in mind the
Constellation Energy deal that was signed last year between Microsoft and Constellation Energy
for $800 million a year. That deal was not only one of the biggest deals of its kind in history,
by the way, not just recently in history was one of the biggest, biggest and longest term
nuclear deals between a tech company and an energy company ever.
But it was also sort of a, I don't know, opening swing to mark this line in the sand to say, hey,
tech companies are realizing that this is not just a game of acquiring compute. It is also a game of acquiring the power production necessary to fuel and feed that compute.
And so Meta knows this.
Meta has made massive investments.
Amazon is making massive investments with the power producer Talon Energy, which has been a monster, monster stock.
I actually owned it as of just a few weeks ago.
And, you know, these guys are all putting their feet in the sand.
Like, you know, Meta's made, I don't know,
$12 or $13 billion in energy investments.
Amazon's deal with Talent Energy over the next 10 years
will be something like $15 billion.
Microsoft's deal with Constellation Energy is $800 million a year
for the next 20 years.
Like, these are big numbers for tech to be spending on energy infrastructure,
not on like some,
not on the servicing of some immediate project,
but on long-term energy infrastructure,
right?
Like that's,
it's not new,
but it's happening in a much bigger way than it has ever happened before for
these guys.
So you have a lot of different inputs,
a lot of different funnels for that CapEx
to reach its destination,
which is ultimately the improvement
of national grid infrastructure
and power production and energy storage
and all these things that make up that whole pie.
But I think you can win by investing in any part of that
chain over the next 10 years. I genuinely believe that. I don't even think you need to overthink it.
And that can be by investing directly in the data center builders. That can be by investing
in the power producers. That can be by investing in the picks and shovels, the guys that build the
infrastructure and the wires and the cooling racks and those systems, that can be by investing in nuclear energy.
That can be by investing in nuclear fuel.
That can be by investing.
I mean, I can go on and on and on.
Coal, even if you want to.
I mean, if that's attractive to you.
Like solar, even if seems discouraging.
Wow. New York Post.
Jeff Bezos weighing acquisition of CNBC.
Wow.
Yeah, that was out a little out of left field, actually.
Whoa.
What is he going to use it to just pump Amazon stock so he can sell more of it?
Maybe.
That's interesting.
Yeah, right? That one was kind of left field. Let's interesting. Yeah, right?
That one was kind of left field.
Let's see.
Well, he has been raising a lot of cash.
Yes.
He's 88% of the way through his life.
Why does he want CNBC is the question.
What's the point?
That's weird.
I feel like maybe he doesn't like it.
He sees the microphone
that a lot of these other people have and wants his own
maybe Washington Post
he wants Prime to have live
live news
wait but here's my thing
why have one dying industry with newspaper
when you can own two with newspaper and cable
that's exactly right
it's weird
it's a weird acquisition.
I wish he would just focus on Blue Origin, making that great.
We'll see.
This is a rumor.
New York Post.
There's been rumors he's wanted acquisitions, acquire some teams.
I don't know.
So we shall see, though.
This Tesla earnings call should be starting right now.
That was just a little left-field headline to spice some things up.
Yeah, they're just...
Right now, it is just...
Trump's also speaking live at that AI thing.
Who is?
Donald J. Trump.
Donald Trump.
Sorry.
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's second second quarter 2025 Q&A webcast.
My name is Travis Axrod, Head of Investor Relations and a number of other executives.
Our Q2 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update deck.
We published at the same link as this webcast.
During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.
These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.
Actual events or results couldn't differ materially due to a number of risks.
And, Pizzero, you could play the call quickly.
I just, like, for this first couple seconds, I actually really want to get this post up.
...questions and web follow-up.
Please use the raise-hand want to get this post up. Question and one follow-up.
Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into
Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.
Elon. Thanks, Travis.
we've had a very exciting quarter.
We're able to successfully launch
Robotaxis, so providing
our first drives with no one
in the privacy
with paying customers in
Austin.
And that's something we've already expanded our service area in Austin.
It's bigger and longer.
And it's going to get even bigger and longer but we were expecting to really
greatly increase the uh water service area to well in excess of what competitors are doing
and uh that's hopefully in a week or so two weeks yeah a couple weeks a couple weeks or so um
a couple weeks a couple weeks or so um and uh and then we're getting the regulatory permission
to launch in the bay area uh arizona and a number of florida and a number of other places so as
soon as we get the approvals and we prove out safety then we'll be launching autonomous ride hailing in
most of the countries and i think we'll probably have autonomous right hailing and
like half of the population of the u.s by the end of the year that's at least our goal
subject to regulatory approach big statements.
I think we technically do it. So assuming we're very good for people,
it's probably interesting enough.
The population of the US I did the year.
We are being very cautious.
We don't want to take any chances.
And so we're going to.
Yeah, go cautiously.
But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper exponential rate.
So, some other notable things.
Model Y in June became the best-selling car in turkey netherlands
switzerland and austria it is i believe the best-selling car of any kind in the world still
and um autonomy is a big factor there so even without
big factor there so even without it even absent even without supervised even even with just
supervised self-driving this is a huge selling point um and it's worth noting that we do not
actually yet have approval for supervised fsd uh in in europe so our sales in Europe, we think, will improve significantly once we're able
to give customers the same experience that they have in the US. This is, I think, a very
important point to convey. We've been working with…
Does it sound good?
… country regulator, which is the Netherlands. And I think we're close to getting
approval with the Netherlands, then it's going to go to the EU.
just with bureaucracy, but we will get the approvals um and i and think we'll get
you know some people in europe will have experience some of them have the us uh in most of europe
this year hopefully at least partially uh in this quarter um and then we also have some regular regulatory challenges in china which we're
hoping to unblock shortly uh where we uh because we also cannot find uh to advise fst in china
currently um unblock that suit and that's also that's another major it's really is the single biggest demand drive um and then within the us uh as we are confident about
safety and different uh geographic areas the we will um uh loosen up on how
uh much somebody has to be laser focused to have their eyes laser focused on the road.
That's a common complaint. In fact, it does create an open safety issue where people will
see there's a stage. And then re-take autopilot, which obviously is less safe than simply keeping autopilot on so anyway we get that that that experience will will improve
in the next several weeks the the because of our focus on austin with no domain driver's seat the
production release of autopilot is actually several months behind what people experience on a Robotex in Austin.
So now we have the Robotex in Austin launched. We'll be adding back those elements so that
there will be a step change improvement in the autopilot experience for people outside of Austin.
pilot experience for people outside of Austin.
This is really, as you can tell, this is very much sort of an autonomy is the story.
Like we need the physical product without which you cannot have autonomy, but once you have a
physical product you need, the autonomy is what amplifies the value to stratospheric levels.
value to stratospheric levels um he also launched the tesla diner which has been a huge hit
um it actually got worldwide attention which is unusual for a diner
diners don't typically get uh that headline news around earth um but this is a pretty special dinah and if you're in the la area it's worth visiting
it's sort of a shiny beacon of hope and otherwise sort of bleak open landscape frankly
so it's really quite quite a lovely experience great job i did a little team there um
I'm excited to have a little team there.
On the full-stop driving front,
continue talking about that.
We have, we're continuing to make significant improvements
just with the software.
So we're expecting to increase the parameter count.
Actually at this point,
I think we think we can probably 10X,
almost 10X the parameter parameter.
Yeah, roughly 10X the parameter count.
So this is actually a very tricky thing to do
because as you increase
the parameter count, you get choked on memory bandwidth,
but we currently think we can 10X the parameter count
from what people are currently experiencing.
That's not just 4X, actually 10X increase
in parameter count.
And yeah. not just 4x actually 10x increased in private camp um and um
yeah so so there's still a lot of improvement on the existing hot road to happen
energy is growing really well despite headwinds from tariffs and spurious supply chain charges.
The mega pack is expanding capacity quickly and we have upgrades to the mega pack
that will make it even better.
And we had record power wall deployments that are gaining Q2.
So I think batteries are gonna just gonna be a massive thing.
batteries are just going to be a massive thing.
The scale of batteries, battery demand is, I think,
not that many people appreciate just how gigantic the scale of battery demand is.
The way you think about it is that the U.S. sustained power output
for the U.S. grid is around one terawatt.
But average usage is less than half a terawatt.
If you add batteries to the mix, you can run the power plants 24-7 at full capacity,
thus doubling, more than doubling, the energy output per year of the United States just
with batteries. But that's a good big deal. It's a really big deal. Optimus, so we're
evolving Optimus design and really getting Optimus to the point where it is a
phenomenal design.
Optimus version 2 right now, sort of two and a half.
Optimus 3 is an exquisite design in my opinion and will be an incredible, as I've said many times before,
I predicted it will be the biggest product ever.
It's a very hard problem to solve.
You have to design every part of it from physics first principles.
There's nothing that's off the shelf that actually works.
So you're going to design every motor gearbox power electronics control electronics sensors
the mechanical elements
mostly got trained
optimus
You'd use its limbs and its sensors with a neural care for me some wd-40
but we'll be
applying the same techniques we'll apply
for a car which is essentially a four-wheel robot and optimus is a robot with arms and legs
so the same principles that apply to optimizing ai inference of the car applied to optimists
because they're both really robots in different forms
um and tesla it is important to you know that tesla is by far the best in the world at real world ai like like a clear proof point but for that would be if you compare say tesla to waymo waymo's
got you know the car is best doing with god knows how many sensors and yet isn't
google good at ai yes but they're not good at real world day thus far they have tesla is actually
much better than google by far and any much than anyone at real world and can i and by far, Tesla has the best inference efficiency.
Like, I think a key figure of merit for AI is,
what is the intelligence per gigabyte?
And people talk about parameters, blah, blah, blah.
But I think we're still talking about parameters
and talk about gigabytes,
because with the parameters,
you can have four bit parameters,
eight bit parameters
16 bit parameters but the actual constraints in the hardware are how many gigabytes of ram and
how many gigabytes per second can you transfer from there therefore it is not a parameter
constraint it is a there's a byte constraint and tesla has the highest intelligence density
of any AI by far.
I have a lot of insight into this with XAI.
XAI is, you know, Gronk is the smartest AI overall,
but it's a, Gronk 4 is a giant beast.
there's the terabyte levels.
There's the terabyte level.
And so it's kind of a,
important to know Tesla has the best intelligence density
and intelligence density will be a very big deal
in the future, it is now.
So with Optimus 3, which is really the right design, at this point there's no significant
flaws with the Optimus 3 design, but we are going to retool a bunch of things so it's it'll probably be prototypes of Optimus 3
end of this year and then scale production next year and I try to scale
Optimus production as fast as it's seemingly possible to do so I'm trying
to get to a million units a year as quickly as possible
you think we can get that in less than five years
I guess
that's a reasonable aspiration
five years
it seems like
um Five years. It seems like an achievable target.
In conclusion, so far 2025 has been a very exciting year.
A lot of major milestones.
We've made clear demonstrable progress in autonomy that a lot of naysayers said we would not achieve.
It's worth noting that we have done what we said we were going to do.
I mean, we're always on time, but we get it done.
And our naysayers are sitting there with egg on their face.
So great, great, great progress by the tesla team um
and i do think if tesla continues to execute well with visual autonomy and and the humanoid robot
autonomy it will be the most valuable company in the world
it's a lot of execution between here and there it doesn't just happen
but provided we execute very well um
i think tesla has a shot at being most valuable company
as it has a shot at being most valuable company involved.
All right, obviously I'm extremely optimistic
about the future of the company.
Best way to predict the future is to make it happen.
And we're making it happen here with the Tesla team.
So I'd just like to say thanks to all of our supporters
and I think we're good to tell you
an incredibly exciting future.
Great.
Thank you very much, Elon,
and that has been remarks as well.
Service.
As Elon mentioned, Q2 was an interesting quarter
in a few respects.
We started ramping up the production of the new Model Y
at all our factories.
We rolled out our robot access service in Austin
and delivered a car completely autonomously
from directly from the factory to the customer's home.
It is a seminal point to get to this thing.
I mean, it took a lot of effort
and I really want to thank everybody
at Tesla to make this happen.
It wasn't an easy thing to do, but we did it.
It took time, but we've just begun
the next phase for the company.
The one big bill has a lot of changes
that would affect our business in the near term.
The first among those changes is the repeal
of the higher EV credit of 7,500 by the end of this world.
Given the abrupt change, we have limited supply of vehicles
in the U.S. this quarter,
as we have already with the lead times
to order parts of their cars.
We've rolled out all our planned incentives already
and we'll start pairing them back as we start to sell.
If you're in the U.S. and looking to buy a car,
they say, well now, as we may not be able to guarantee delivery
orders placed in the later part of August and beyond.
The bill also made changes to certain emission standards
by reducing the amount of penalty to sale.
This in turn will have an impact on the new sales of
regulatory credits to other lands and in terms will lead to lower RE&s.
While we now plan our business around such sales, it will nonetheless impact our total
revenues going forward. On the automotive product portfolio, the entire lineup is updated.
Globally, we're seeing an increase in the number of test drives. We started the production of the lower cost model
as planned in the first half of 25.
However, given our focus on building and delivering
as many vehicles as possible in the US
before the EV credit expires,
and the additional complexity of ramping a new product,
the ramp will happen next quarter,
slower than initially expected.
One thing which is grossly appreciated in Elon Musk's demoral data is that all our vehicles in the lineup are capable of a dump.
This is by far the biggest differentiator between us and the competition.
Our vehicle's top safety standard has this, but with FSD, they are and will continue to set a new standard
for safety within regular transportation.
We published our vehicle safety report earlier today, and you can see a car on FSD is 10x
safer than a car not on FSD.
We've started seeing an uptick in FSD adoption in North America in recent months, which is
a very promising trend.
And just to give you perspective, you know, since the launch of, since we moved to version
12 of FSD, we've seen the adoption rates really increase. It started seeing the on the automotive revenue front despite reduction in regular total revenue
and the total automotive revenue increased by 19% sequentially even though total deliveries
only improved 14%.
This was primarily due to an improved ASPs because of the new Model Y.
This helped in improving margins sequentially as well, along with improved mix and higher
cost, fixed cost absorption, despite an increase in cost of tariffs.
We started seeing the impact of tariffs in our P&L.
Sequentially, the cost of tariffs increased around 300 million with approximately two-thirds of that
impact in automotive and rest in energy however given the latency in manufacturing and sales
the full impacts will come through in the following quarters and so cost will increase in the meantime
while we are doing our best to manage these impacts, we are in an unpredictable environment on the terrafront.
The margins for the energy generation and storage businesses improved sequentially,
while deployment reduced primarily due to the ramp of
power deployments at high margins.
We were able to achieve our highest cost profit for the business yet.
Note that the overall deployments will continue to vary quarter to quarter. We were able to achieve our highest cost profit for the business yet.
Note that the overall deployments will continue to vary quarter to quarter.
I think we've covered this, that industrial storage will make a difference in this drive towards AI and data center growth.
The energy requirements are increasing at a rapid scale as AI applications are very energy-hungry.
The quickest path to scale up energy is deployed to storage.
This is something that our customers have started realizing and despite this business having the largest impacts of tariffs, we are seeing customers willing to accept some
of the tariffs' impacts.
The big bill has certain adverse impacts
even for the energy business,
most notably on the residential storage business
due to the early exploration of carbon-zimmer
at the end of this year.
The challenges of the storage business
therefore remain both from the bill and from tariffs,
and we're doing our best to try and manage through this.
But we will see shifts in demand and profitability.
The margins for our service and other businesses
improved sequentially,
primarily due to higher profits from supercharging
and improvement in insurance and service center profitability.
Operating expenses also grew sequentially
as we continued our investment in AI projects,
including additional expenses related to employee-related costs,
including higher stock-based compensation
and depreciation for AI compute.
Our operating expenses, especially R&D-related spend,
will continue to grow.
We believe even in the current environment, it is the right strategy to keep making investments in these areas to position us for the long term.
Other income grew sequentially, primarily from the mark-to-market adjustment on Bitcoin holdings,
which was $284 million gain in Q2 while we got $125
million loss in Q1.
I just want to remind people that this would keep creating volatility based on the Bitcoin
price.
While operating cash flows increased sequentially, we so did our capex, resulting in $146 million of free cash flows.
We continued to make investments in various aspects of manufacturing, like CyberCap,
semi-lines, and other manufacturing spend, and the expansion of our AI initiatives.
Our latest expectations of the year in terms of CapEx is in excess of $9 billion.
of the year in terms of capex is in excess of 9 billion to summarize we have near-term challenges
in our business due to the negative impacts of the bill and tariffs however the investments
that we have made for ai robotics and our lead in energy sets us up for a bright future i would
like to thank the whole tesla team our customers our investors and supporters for
their continued belief in it great thank you very much so now we're going to move on to say.com
questions the first question is can you give us some insight how robo taxis have been performing
so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities, and supervisors.
Yeah, Robotaxia has been doing great so far in Austin.
Customers really love the experience.
It's like super smooth, very safe,
and like just a great experience overall.
And we already did the first day of expansion in Austin,
and we continue to expand in Austin
to probably more than 10x
our current operating region. We're also testing in a lot of other cities as Ilan mentioned.
The next thing to expand will be in the San Francisco Bay Area. We are working with the
government to get approval here and in the meanwhile launch the service with the person
in the driver's seat just to expedite and while we wait for
regulatory approval. We are also testing a lot of other cities in the U.S., including Florida, Nevada,
etc. Great. Thank you very much, Shok. The next question is, what are the key technical and
regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD
to be available for personal use?
Can you provide a timeline?
We're certainly getting there.
I think it'll be available for unsupervised personal use
by the end of this year in certain geographies.
We're just being very careful about it.
This is not something we truly want to watch.
We want to make sure that everything is safe before we maintain available broadly.
Yeah, we're just being extremely paranoid.
Yes.
But I'm confident that by the end of this year, within a number of cities in the US,
it will be available to end users.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And for what it's the same, AA hardware in the Austin Robotaxi vehicles test, some customer
vehicles, and we did a car from the factory
to a customer squadron.
Yes.
And every Tesla manufactured in the US and in Europe,
autonomously drives itself from the end of time
to the loading docks.
And so it's just a software database.
Yeah.
I think we'll be willing to deliver cars
in the Grand Royston area, and the Bay Area by default from the factory by the end of this year.
A good car will deliver itself to where you are, unless you say you don't want that.
That would be super cool.
Yeah.
Great.
Thank you, guys.
The next question is, what specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing,
and what is the expected timeline for scaling production to enable external sales?
How does Tesla envision Optimus contributing to revenue in the next two to three years?
Yeah, so the Optimus 3 design, as I mentioned earlier, is I think finally the right design, there'll be further optimizations,
but there are no fundamental changes
to that are needed for the Optimus 3 design.
It has all the degrees of freedom that you really want or need.
So it will have prototypes of that in three months,
and it's certainly in production
we'll certainly start production on that in the beginning of next year
the production round is the poll it's always going to predict uh the yes curve of your production ramp um when something has got an entire when everything is new because the rate of production
will move as fast as the least lucky
and least competent elements of the entire supply chain
as well as internal processes.
So the more new stuff that is in a product,
the slower the ramp could be
because of unexpected supply chain interruptions
or mistakes made internally.
It's much easier to predict
sort of the end of the S curve
or late in the S curve than the beginning of the S curve.
And the beginning of the S curve of the production rate
is in any case, not really material for revenue purposes.
The beginning of the S curve and you're usually not usually
yours negative correspondence and you're debugging a lot of issues so um
that's why like it's i feel like fairly competent predicting things or at least
medium competent in predicting where we are five years but it's hard to predict where we are in a year or two years.
So that's why I think five years, I think we could be at the, I'd be surprised if at the end of five years, 60 months from now,
if we are not roughly making 100,000 Optimus robots in month,
in 60 months, I would be shocked.
All right.
Thank you very much.
Next question is,
can you provide an update on the development and production timeline
for Tesla's more affordable models?
How will these models balance cost reduction and profitability, and what effect do you expect on demand in the current economic climate?
Well, I think BiBot did a good job of answering this question in his opening remarks.
As we said, we started production in June, and we're ramping all the bills and things around the quarter.
And given that we started in North America and that our goal is to maximize production
with the IRA cliff ending Q3, we're going to keep pushing hard on our current models
to avoid complexity.
Unfortunately, that rolls away and we'll be running with more affordable models available
for everyone in Q4.
And the goal of those products was not to negatively impact revenue or gross margin, but just to make a car that everyone loves and wants at a more affordable price.
Great. Thank you, Lars.
The next question is, can you talk about the benefits of Tesla investing in XAI?
This is not the forum to discuss this topic.
I mean, if there is something which we need to discuss,
we'll discuss it separately.
I think obviously, you know, we're a publicly traded company.
Shareholders are welcome to put forward any shareholder proposals
that they'd like.
I recently encouraged that.
And then have shareholders vote
and we'll act in accordance with the shareholder wishes.
Great, thank you very much.
The next question is,
can you tell us a little bit more
about what goes on in a Tesla design studio?
Do you want me to take that one?
We kind of generally say that
what happens in the studio stays in the studio,
and that earnings calls are not the place to disclose new product stuff,
but we're working to make sure that we have an exciting future
for our Tesla in the product line.
Yeah, there's a lot of exciting things happening in the design studio.
It's not like static.
And really, what's going to happen over the next several years
is a fundamental transformation of the company
from a pre-autonomy world to a post-autonomy world.
And I'm working on a new master plan to articulate that Tesla team.
And, you know, there will be some teething pains as you transition from pre-autonomy to post-autonomy world.
But I think that the future vision for Tesla is incredibly exciting and will profoundly change the world in a good way.
This may sound like sort of fine or whatever, but I think if we're, let's just say, if we execute on that plan effectively,
just you have to actually do that. Tuzzle will be the most valuable company in the world by far.
Great. Thank you.
The next question is actually a duplicate
on unsupervised FSD customer vehicles.
We'll skip that.
After that is, are there any news
for hardware 3 users getting retrofits or upgrades?
Will they get hardware 4 or some future version
of hardware 5?
I mean, what we want to do is we want to get unsupervised done on hardware four first.
Once it's done, then we'll go back and look at what we need to do with the hardware three
cars.
I mean, like I said, the focus is first to get unsupervised out, and then we'll go back
and see what more work we need to do.
Great. Next question is, can you give an update on Dojo and could XAI be a customer for Dojo?
Dojo 2, we expect to have Dojo 2 operating in scale sometime next year,
We expect to have Dojo 2 operating in scale sometime next year,
with scale being somewhere around 100k H100 equivalents.
And then AI5, which is really a spectacular trip.
I don't use those words lightly spectacular to the air.
I'm sure we'll be hopefully be in line production around the end of next year.
But that has a lot of potential.
I think, you know, thinking about Dojo three and the I six in first chip.
the Converger 3 and the AI6 inference chip.
It seems like intuitively we wanna try
to find convergence there where it's basically
the same chip that is used,
where we say two of them in a car or Optimus
and maybe a larger number on a board, like on a 512
on a board or something like that, if you want high-bandless communication between the
chips at a force serving, during a burn serving.
That sort of seems like intuitively the sensible way to go.
Great.
The next step questions have all actually been covered.
So we'll end with,
how will the BBB elimination of tax credits
for solar projects affect your sales pipeline for Megapack?
Yeah, Mark, our sales pipeline is quite diversified
across customers and market segments.
So we aren't heavily weighted in Megapack projects
that are paired with solar.
And as we talked about in the opening remarks,
we're seeing storage quickly being recognized
for its ability to unlock grid efficiency
and how quickly it can be deployed to help the grid.
Additionally, although the recent bill
was not favorable towards solar, we believe solar
projects will still get built because the energy is necessary, the projects are well
developed and they're ready for execution, and there's really no alternatives in the
near term given gas turbine lead time and pricing.
We also continue to see growth in the data center segment and in standalone storage projects
providing capacity to the grid in several markets across the U.S. Overall, we're forecasting a very strong second
half of the year as we increase deployments. And lastly, we continue to invest heavily in U.S.
manufacturing to mitigate policy and tariff impacts, expecting our first LFP cell manufacturing
facility to be online by the end of the year, and launching our third mega factory near Houston in 2026.
Great. Thank you, Mike.
We will now be moving to analyst questions.
The first question comes from Emmanuel Rosner at Wolf Research.
Emmanuel, please feel free to unmute yourself whenever you're ready.
Let's go.
Great. Thank you so much. Can you hear me?
Yep.
Thanks.
So, Ilan, are you able to share any KPIs with us in terms of the robotaxi business?
How many vehicles are you operating, miles driven, autonomously, or the number of safety critical intervention?
Just curious, you know, how the rollout is generally is going
and any sort of like targets that you could share more broadly.
Sure.
Yeah.
We have, you know, more than 7,000 miles operating in Austin area.
Just because service is new, we have a handful of vehicles right now,
but then we are trying to expand the service in terms of what the area and
also the number of vehicles for the Austin and other locations.
So far, there's no notable safety critical incidents.
Sometimes we have our own restrictions as to,
for example, be resting number speed limit to 40 miles per hour course.
If the vehicle wants to go on higher speed
or speaking stop the vehicle,
but those are a lot of convenient
opposed to state-free critical nature.
So far the service has been really well received
and we continue to expand on it.
Great.
And then, yeah, longer term, from an economics point of view, longer term, you've previously talked about working to drive down the cost per mile on robotaxis, maybe towards 30 or 40 cents per mile over time.
Now that your service is live, how should we think about the main milestones to getting there?
How should we think about the main milestones to getting there?
Yeah, well, the cyber camp, which is really optimized for autonomy,
that I think has got probably sub-30 cent per mile potential over time, maybe 25.
It's really, like if you design a car from scratch to be a cost optimized robotic taxi like Cybercap,
like for example, we're not trying to make it corner incredibly well like a Model 3 would, or Model S, or even Model Y.
All of our cars that are driven by people are super fun drive.
They've got incredible acceleration, incredible cornering capability.
You know, the incredible cornering capability.
But we're confident that very few people in a cyber cap want to be huddling around.
So, you know, so we reduced the top end speed, which means we can use more efficient tires.
We don't need as much acceleration.
We don't need as much, you know, big brakes.
We want stopping distance, but we're not expecting it to be heavily used.
It's a gentle ride.
Essentially, if you decide it for a gentle ride, and then you have a much more optimized design point.
So that's why it seems probably achieve that
especially if optim optimist is you know so serving it's cleaning up the car and
make doing maintenance and stuff um and um it's you know doing automatic charging
you know doing automatic charging uh so i think it's gonna the actual cost per mile of cyber cap
will be very low the cost per mile of our existing fleet will be higher but it's still very competitive
so yeah maybe some number of 50 cents in just guessing.
Yeah, so this really tells road taxically
we'll go from tiny to gigantic in terms of operations
in a pretty short period of time.
Like my guess is it has a material impact
on our financials around the end of next year.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Adam at Morgan Stanley.
Adam, please unmute yourself.
Great. Hello, everybody.
So, Elon, as Tesla moves into this next phase of physical AI, autonomous humanoids, robo-taxes, et cetera, world-changing, civilizational species-changing technology with dual purpose, are you comfortable moving Tesla in this direction while only having a 13% stake in the company,
is that sustainable or do you still insist
that something needs to happen given
your current lack of control
and the types of technologies you're getting into?
Yeah, that is a major concern to you
as I've mentioned in the past,
and I hope that is addressed
at the upcoming shareholders meeting.
But yeah, it is a big deal.
I want to find that I've got so little control that I can easily be ousted by activist shareholders
after having both these army of humanoid robots.
I think that, as I mentioned before, I think my control over Tesla should be enough to ensure that it goes in a good direction, but not so much control that I can't be thrown out if I go crazy.
Okay, Elon, you're not going to go crazy.
We trust you.
You can stay a little crazy. A little crazy is okay. Elon, though, we understand the board of directors of a major U.S. investment bank recently toured Optimist production. I don't know if you want to confirm that or not. It's just what we've heard. That's cool.
You can stay a little crazy.
A little crazy is okay.
When do you think others will be able to get a firsthand view of optimists like that?
And is the second half of this year too soon to have an AI day?
Because it seems like everybody else in the world is doing it, and this talent war is getting freaking crazy.
And I know you mentioned for recruiting purposes, this is a very important thing that you've done. I think people have copied you on this,
and I'm wondering if this year's too early for that.
Thanks, Elon.
Yes, it's a bit of a tough thing,
because when we do an AI day,
we find that some of our competitors
have literally done a frame-by-frame examination
of our slides and everything we say, and then copy us.
So, you know, I say like wow what's the
trade-off which does help us recruiting but then competitors look very closely and copy us um
i mean that said we should probably i mean i guess we could consider the shareholder
I mean, that said, we should probably, I mean, I guess we could consider the shareholder meeting to be sort of in a, we can maybe go into depth, some amount of depth at the annual shareholder meeting with respect to Optimus and AI and sort of our chip stuff, perhaps.
Yeah. It tells us what we're also really underrated in terms of ai chip design
as well as ai software um so like there's still not a chip that we would that that exists that we would prefer to put in our car that is an ai chip that we would prefer to put in our car. That is an age of that we would prefer to put in the car over our own.
And even though it's been now out for several years.
And we're confident that the AI-5 will be a profound game changer.
In fact, it's so powerful that we'll have to nerf it to some degree for markets outside
of the US because it flows way past the export restrictions.
So unless the export restrictions change, we actually will have to nerf our AI-5 ship,
which is kind of weird.
Hopefully we keep raising the bar on export restrictions, otherwise it gets a bit silly.
We'll have a bunch of optimist robots on stage um at the showholder meeting um
the optimist lab is cool to see it looks like it basically looks like the theater westworld
um you could rob us in various stages some of them you know in various stages, some of them are, you know, in various stages of repair.
Like, I don't know, some combination of, like, the tattooing junkyard and the west walls.
It's very cool.
And Optimus is walking around the office here in Powell, so 24 24 seven is just walking around like a small.
I think we're so optimistic.
Like the Tesla diner sitting popcorn.
Yeah, so it's, we'll go from a world where robots are rare
to where they're so common that you don't even look up.
Great, thank you so much.
The next question comes from Edison at Deutsche Bank.
Edison, please unmute yourself.
Edison, please go ahead and unmute yourself.
All right. While Edison figures that out, we will go to the next question, which is going to come from Dan Levi at Barclays.
Dan, please go ahead and unmute yourself.
Great.
Yvonne, you talked about the opportunity to put non-Tesla-owned vehicles into the RoboTaxi network.
Just talk about the gating factors to enabling that and what timeline we should expect on personally-owned vehicles in the RoboTaxi network.
We haven't really thought hard about that.
We need to make sure it works when the vehicles are fully under our control.
And it's kind of one step at a time here.
We don't want to jump the gun.
As I said, we're being paranoid about safety.
So it's like, but I guess, like next year, I'd say confidently next year, I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla fleet.
keep in mind is that we will have some criteria because like even when you put your car in an
uber or lyft fleet they go through a checklist process of making sure things are working
it's like an airbnb yes yeah so we will do something like that activating process yes
because we want like you don't said we are we want to be better learned about security
Like Elon said, we want to be better learned about security.
Assets, long things like tread on the tire can have an impact on safety.
So that's why we would want to do some proper validation before we let other costs come in.
Dan, you can follow up?
Yes, thank you.
Could you just unpack the different costs associated with scaling the robotaxi business and how you think about funding those costs? Are the cash flows in the auto business sufficient to fund it? And if not, what other funding sources do you think you'd use? Would you just fund it off the balance sheet?
you know, would you just fund it off the balance sheet?
Well, as soon as there is a clear cash flow stream
associated with any product, you can finance it.
And in the interim?
In the interim, we will use our balance sheet,
but, like, once we get to a certain scale in terms of the current revenues, like Elon said, we could get into an easier kind of transaction to try and get funding.
Great. Thanks so much. We will now move on to Mark from Goldman Sachs. Mark, please feel free to unmute yourself.
self-driving more generally, are you able to comment more specifically on what you're seeing
with FSD subscription trends and tick rates and help us better understand how large FSD
revenue may be currently?
So we've definitely, like I mentioned in my opening remarks, since we've launched version
12 of FSD in North America, we've definitely seen a marked improvement in the FSD adaption.
And the other thing which we had also done last year is we did bring down the pricing
and we've made subscription much more affordable.
So we have seen, you know, 25% increase since that time, which is an encouraging trend.
But honestly, we've just started the story
around explaining the benefits of FSD.
Like I said before, we released our vehicle safety report.
Even if you don't believe in anything else,
a car on FSD being 10X safer should be a motivator.
Plus, the other thing is people don't realize
even at $99 a month,
it's like you're getting a personal chauffeur
for almost $3.33 a day.
And this is by far the biggest game changer,
which I know we've been talking about it
because part of it is we live and breathe it but yeah I feel most people
still don't know yeah but the best people don't know it exists and it's so
like half of Tesla owners who could use it haven't tried it even once this
veteran actually this is something we want to educate them on.
So we've got to, when they come in for service,
we'll reach out to them, send them videos of how to make it work.
And it's such a shocking thing.
They don't think a car is capable of this.
So you have to you to
show them and and and get them comfortable with turning it on and off it's so trivial but it's
you know it's like saying you've got a cat that can sing a dance but it just looks like a normal
cat and you're like you know until you see the cat sing a dance and talk like you're seeing
it's just a cat that's that's Tesla FD. Our car is intelligent.
And so what we're going to do, to Elon's point,
like we've been giving the three times to try and try the FSD,
but we'll start giving more prompts to say,
okay, this particular drive, try FSD.
So that, I mean, because it's literally seeing is believing.
Like Elon said, think of it like a cat.
It looks like a normal cat, but this cat can sing and dance.
Same thing on FSD.
Great, yeah.
And the 25% comment was 25% increase in the penetration
since we've seen the release of V12 and V13 in North America.
Great. Thank you. Mark, did you have a follow-up question?
Yeah, thanks, Travis. Tesla has historically said it would use pricing as one tool to help drive
auto vehicle growth as long as free cash flow stayed positive, given the ability to monetize
products like FSD. I'm curious how you're thinking about pricing from here as a potential tool to
drive increased volumes, given where you stand with FSD, as well as the fact that the IRA purchase tax credits are poised to go away in the U.S.
started in the fourth quarter.
So should we expect more meaningful price reductions given that monetization potential,
or do you envision price reductions be more limited compared to cost downs given where free cash flow now stands?
to be more limited compared to cost downs given where free cash flow now stands. Thanks.
Thanks.
Well, we're in this like weird transition period where we will lose a lot of incentives in the US,
there's a lot of incentives actually in many other parts of the world, but we'll lose them in the US.
And we'll still look at the relatively early stages of autonomy. On the other hand, autonomy is most advanced
and most available from a regulatory standpoint in the US.
So, I mean, does that mean like
we could have a few rough quarters?
Yeah, we probably could have a few rough quarters.
I'm not saying it will, but we could.
Q4, Q1, maybe Q2.
But once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year,
certainly by the end of next year,
I think I'd be surprised if Tesla's economics are not very compelling.
Great.
The next question is going to come from Will from Truist.
Will, please feel free to unmute yourself when you're ready.
Great.
Thanks so much for taking my questions.
First, I'd like to ask for a little bit more detail about the lower cost model that you
talked about having, I think, started
production in the first half, but you said we'll ramp later. At the last analyst day, as I recall,
you talked about some aspects of this, like two-thirds or three-quarters reduction in silicon
carbide and not using rare earths in the motor and perhaps other cost towns.
You also had this unboxed architecture
that I think you said would not be part of this sort of interim approach.
Can you update us on what we should expect this thing to actually look like?
Oh, we won't get into the look.
Because...
Which is the Model Y.
They just lick the cat out of the bag there.
Dancing cat that can swing and dance. But he can talk and sing and dance. That's the cool part. because yeah i mean the the fundamentally the biggest obstacle remains that people just don't have some people don't the desire to buy the car is very high just people don't have enough money
in the bank account to buy it literally that is the
issue not a lack of desire but a lack of ability so the more affordable we can make the car the
better um i think it's just going to be it will be a very big deal when people can uh release
their car to the fleet and have it earn money for them which i like i said i'm i feel confident
saying that'll happen next year in the
U.S. at least.
In the U.S. we're legally allowed, you know, appropriate disclaimers.
And that will make the affordability dramatically greater.
Just like, you know, if you have an Airbnb and you can rent out your home when you're
not there or rent out a guest room or guest house or something like that, the affordability of your home is much greater.
Okay.
Trying another topic then.
We see all these wonderful developments at XAI like Grok.
And obviously Tesla is trying to do quite a bit in AI.
Elon, how do you manage the division of efforts and recruiting and talent and capital
between these two that seem like there's a very high potential that they can in fact compete?
Well, they are doing different things here.
So, you know, the XCI is doing like, you know,
terabyte scale models and multi-terabyte scale models.
Tesla's 100 times smaller models.
So one's real-world AI
and one's kind of, I guess,
artificial superintelligence type of thing.
I mean, really kind of the genesis for XAI
was that there were certain people
who simply would not join Tesla,
AI engineers, because they wanted to work on ASI, and they would join Tesla.
And I was like, well, maybe they'll join a new company.
And I think the Tesla problem is extremely important, but not everyone agrees with me on that.
And so rather than have them join OpenAI or Google or some other company,
as well have them create a company in that regard, which is XAI.
So that's, you know it make a decision. Do they want to work on this like super intelligence data center or real world AI?
They're both compelling problems,
but some people want to work in one and some want to work on the other.
Great. And unfortunately, that is all the time we have today.
Thank you everyone so much for your questions, and we'll see you next quarter.
Nice.
Done by 5%.
Yeah, we pretty steadily dropped throughout the earnings call there.
Like you mentioned, finishing at the end of the earnings call, down 4.75%.
Right here, trading at 3.17%.
Tesla now down 18.7% on the year at the moment.
A very interesting one as we continue to run through it.
Stan, what were your initial takeaways from that?
I mean, overall, I think there were a lot of predictions, maybe not necessarily predictions
as a CEO and chairman of the company, or maybe he's not the chairman actually, but you know, he,
he says things at the conference call.
And I think at this point,
a lot of the shareholders of the market doesn't necessarily believe him when
he says that,
but I did start to see a bit of a decline when perhaps he made his initial
opening remarks and maybe the market didn't hear what it wanted here,
which in my thoughts, I don't know what the market wants't hear what it wanted here uh which in my thoughts i don't
know what the market wants to hear to pump the stock uh but when there are starting to be more
comments about elon toward the end saying that you know it might be a rusty uh next couple of
quarters talking about q3 and q4 that's when you started seeing the uh stock share tumble um i mean
as the stock talk was saying the market is the market as a public market is impatient when it comes to seeing returns.
And as it should be, that's just the way the stock market functions.
But it's not really looking more than a few months out.
And you've clearly seen that reflected when there was commentary that wasn't exactly perceived as positive for shareholders by the end of the year I mean he did say certain
points that was pretty optimistic in terms of in terms of half the population having ride
hailing available by the end of the year seeing that kind of scalability would be pretty aggressive
in my opinion and that even goes for Waymo as well as a driverless perspective but you know
it would be nice to see.
I mean, it would definitely head toward that direction as we're starting to see the talks with neighboring states,
Arizona, Nevada, as far as having robot taxi available in those states.
But half the population by the end of the year is pretty aggressive, in my opinion.
However, I don't think that that really matters whether that's going to
be attained. I think the market was just looking for some really positive news when it comes to
robo-taxi expansion and being reflected in the balance sheets, which we did here, but I would
imagine it's going to be a lot, maybe just a few million or anything if it does translate down to
the bottom line. Obviously, rooTaxi and CyberCab
is a high margin business for Tesla.
And so is FSD.
And they were talking about that,
where it's $100 a month is a good buy and so on.
It is for a lot of people.
As a Tesla owner myself, I don't have FSD.
And it's not that I don't believe it.
I just don't have the application for it
to be spending $100 to do that. I'm fine driving. I don't really drive that much, but I don't see the benefit for myself to do it.
market's perspective, they just didn't like the call, obviously. And I think it was pretty clear
that that was the case after that opening remark, once the stock went basically flat to just,
like you said, just a downward trend, like a clean downward trend, like no bounces, nothing.
Yeah, good initial analysis. I'm just going to go through some takeaways for those who maybe
didn't catch the whole earnings call or joined in a little bit late. And I really am a big fan now that I just go into perplexity finance
and they just put together a full analysis of this as well. Of course, I'd shout out Earnings Hub,
who does a great job of it as well for anyone who missed a couple of good resources. So just to
recap the main top points here, Tesla successfully launched its robotaxi service with paying customers in Austin.
The plans here are for hyper-exponential expansion to additional U.S. cities,
really just pending regulatory approval and targets, covering half the U.S. population by year end.
You heard that correctly, half the U.S. population by year end.
Expected material financial impact by end of next year with long
term RoboTaxi cost per mile potentially as low as 25 to 30 cents for purpose built vehicles. So we
got a lot of questions about RoboTaxi. How's it going? What's the plans for expansion? We got that
answered. I'd love to see that. Adoption of FSD increased 25% since V12 launch and with new lower subscription pricing, which is nice.
Tesla reports vehicles on FSD are 10 times safer than without.
And further expansion of FSD, including unsupervised for personal use, is expected in certain geographies by end of year.
by end of year. So if you have a Tesla, your car is, you know, depending on whatever you're in,
and a couple other pieces might be able to drive you unsupervised by end of year,
which is only five months away. Pretty freaking crazy. Lower cost Tesla vehicle production,
as we mentioned, began in H1 of 2025. We had some confusion about this earlier. What does that mean?
in H1 of 2025. We had some confusion about this earlier. What does that mean? And Elon did note,
or the team noted, that ramping will be slower than initially expected due to focus on maximizing
deliveries before the US EV tax credits expire and the additional complexity of new models,
you know, with current bandwidth and some other pieces like that. So to be honest, it feels like
they're pushing this a little bit down the road. I don't think we're going to get too many updates this
quarter about the lower cost Tesla vehicle, which I know people are looking forward to,
but it doesn't make sense for them to really make material announcements about right now,
because with the EV tax credit going away, they are trying to sell these higher vehicles, right?
Why start saying, hey, we have a lower vehicle,
and then people do the math, and that lower vehicle is cheaper than what the current vehicles are after the EV tax credit, people are just going to wait. I don't think that they want that,
right? So it doesn't really give them any incentive to share too much right now on this.
So you just have to kind of keep that in mind.
Q4, I think we'll get some more details on that.
Optimus was, of course, the other big question here.
And I love dealing with talking about, you know,
Optimus is just walking around the factory in Palo Alto.
prototype is going to begin production at the start of next year. Scale targeted is 100,000
Tessa Optimus' humanoid robot V3 prototype is going to begin production at the start of next year.
robots per month within five years. So ideally not too far off to basically get to that mass
production of these Optimus robots. And Optimus is anticipated to be Tesla's biggest product ever.
Initial revenues are expected to be material, of course, until production ramps.
But the goal here is within the next five years or at the five-year point, they're able to make $100,000 a month, $1.2 million a year, and that this is the future of Tesla. As he's saying,
this is our biggest product ever. So clearly not a car company if your biggest product is not a car.
Definitely want to just drive that through people's heads as we continue to listen in here.
And then last point that I'll make, and then I'll go back to the panel, see if others want to chime in.
Near term challenges. Right. And this is kind of what Sam was referring to. Right.
It's not going to be easy in the near term. There's a loss of the U.S. EV and storage tax credits.
There's increasing tariffs.
There's increasing tariffs. These are affecting both revenue and costs.
These are affecting both revenue and costs.
CapEx for 2025 is expected to exceed $9 billion, driven by investments in AI, manufacturing,
energy storage, record power wall deployments, and shrugged mega pack demand, despite those
policy tariffs and headwinds and pieces like that.
So I think that there's going to be a little bit of toughness on the current business model.
But I think what he's really getting at is, hey, our business model is continuing to change.
What you see right now is not what this company is going to be in five years from now.
Amin, do I still have you up here?
I think I see him up here.
You do, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Would you want to share any thoughts on the earnings call?
I mean, the excitement around Tesla is all around Optimus and Robotaxis,
and both of those things are 2027 catalysts for revenue growth.
Between now and then, it's painful, right?
So, you know, I don't really have any thoughts other than that.
And I think that I'm concerned about revenue drop on vehicle sales.
You know, obviously, it's never good.
And I don't know how much patience investors and Wall Street will have.
Generally speaking, people do tend to be shorter term oriented and investors in general.
Now, Tesla investors in particular happen to be very long term oriented.
So that's really good to see.
But I wouldn't be surprised if the stock doesn't move in any significant way or is relatively volatile and trades in the 200s for some period of time between now and when revenue growth actually does happen.
Yeah, it's definitely, like you said, a longer term hold here for people to have some vision towards the future.
I wanted to give a heads up here, by the way.
In 10 minutes, I'm going to be getting on with Omar and Sawyer.
And we're going to do a live stream and recap our thoughts and immediate reaction and takeaways to earnings.
I've pinned a tweet to the top of the space.
We are going to do a live stream from at the Gigacast.
We're going to stream it both on here and on YouTube. Encourage you to watch in whichever
area you prefer. But I mean, YouTube, you might get a little bit more of a pleasant experience
when it comes to the live stream. So just look it up now. It is at the Gigacast on each platforms
with Omar and Sawyer. So obviously, you're not hearing from
them right now. They're kind of digesting their thoughts for the moment following up on the
earnings call. And then you're going to get a chance to hear from them in about 10 to 20 minutes.
Sawyer put a lot of takeaways obviously already onto his page that he encourages people to go
check out some of these pieces. One of the interesting statistics was 50%
of Tesla owners that could try FSD have not tried it even once. It's a little mind-boggling.
I definitely think that if you have the opportunity to try it, why not try it,
especially if it's going to make it literally 10 times safer. At the same time, they've certainly
seen a higher increase in FSD take rate.
So we're moving in the right direction, but it shows you, hey, there's so much more potential and possibility for this.
And then obviously for Tesla, they're incentivized because that's 50% more people that can be paying $100 a month.
Let's get those revenue numbers up.
What's up, Sam?
Oh, I mean, I'll be honest um expecting the other 50 to start using fsd is like expecting everyone
to start using cruise control in every single car and i know a lot of people who just don't
use cruise control and it's mostly because one they either don't want to function or two they
literally do not trust machines is that a good comparison it's not really good comparison but
it just shows the disparity and like you're not really going to fill in that other 50%.
Cause I know a lot of people who like they buy Teslas for the efficiency and the fact
that it's EV, but they just don't, they don't want a robot driving their car.
And I don't know if you're going to be able to fill in that gap for quite some time, regardless
of how much technology progresses.
But you know, again, like if a lot of people don't use cruise control on their
cars or have not been for quite some time even though it's been available for decades being able
to fill in the gap of the tesla as far as fsd goes supervised unsupervised whatever it is like it's
just it's unrealistic to expect that entire gap to be filled in i don't think they necessarily
expect it but i am a bit surprised why it's 50%.
I feel like if you own a Tesla, it's like screaming at you when you come in, especially when the free trials are there to at least try out the adaptive cruise control, which I do find
very useful on highways. Even if you don't trust a robot driving your car, at least you can be
adaptive as far as the speed limit goes
and so on but why it's 50 i have no idea yeah yeah it's a good question i mean i'm sure there's
different reasons for different people uh my assumption is you know when it comes to technology
especially technology like this sometimes you got to see it to believe it, right? And if you've never tried it out yourself or tested or something like that, you might just
not think it's, you know, that great or say, hey, you know, I'm happy with what I've got,
right? And sometimes it's kind of like all these people like myself that got suckered into the iOS
ecosystem, you know, you're like, hey, I'm good. You know, I've got my Android, I've got my HP.
And then one day you buy a MacBook Pro.
And then the next thing you know, you have an iPhone and AirPods and a second MacBook Pro.
And you're stuck.
And you've realized that you're in that ecosystem.
And I think that might be what happens with FSD as more and more people get on it.
And then they're like, okay, I guess I'm just in this ecosystem, right?
And I'm just paying for it.
So we'll see what happens.
Emp, any comments you want to make on the earnings call?
I will say, like, I think there's a ton of people out there
that don't even realize that there are cars driving themselves.
Like, that became more clear to me.
Yeah, like talking to my parents and you know some aunts and uncles and
you know people like in that generation they did i don't even think they realized this technology
exists yet uh and then like it was already covered any new technology it takes an adaption time frame
but the earnings call what was different to me was last earnings call we heard a chipper
What's different to me was last earnings call, we heard a chipper excited Elon.
Today, we got his back to his kind of normal, not grouchy, but almost disinterested type of sounding.
And it's just like, okay, Robotex is going on.
This is where we're at.
This is where we're launching it.
And that was kind of all we really heard.
And I think maybe the street wanted to hear more. You heard a lot of the analyst questions were really digging into like,
when are public, you know, when's the public going to be able to spend their robo taxis or
have them in the network to start working for them? They're really trying to model out where the
revenue comes from. And I think Elon's headspace right now is like, we are just trying to develop this revolutionary technology and launch it with no hitches,
right? With all safety involved. And so I think it's just a disconnect between where Tesla's
currently at in this process and what the street is looking for.
Yeah, tone definitely shifted a little bit. I'd agree with that. I'm excited for them
to really put AI to the test and be able to be like, all right, now compare Elon's tonality
to the last 10 earnings calls and give me a score of X to X on some of these different
things. But for sure, I think just...
At least he didn't tell everyone that it was too expensive and to sell it, because that
earnings call about three to four quarters ago, that was wild.
Yeah.
He's like, oh, we're probably not going to sell a lot of these, but you know what, Demp?
Guess what?
He was right.
They didn't sell a lot of them.
So you know what?
Say what you want, but the man was right.
Yeah, about 5,000 a quarter right now. I think that they sell of those.
A couple of their little quotes and takeaways here.
Elon says Tesla expects to have Dojo 2 operating at scale in 2026, with scale being somewhere
around 100,000 H100 equivalents.
And I already mentioned some stuff around RoboTaxi, AI5, right, with Hardware 5,
volume production in late 2026. For those of you that are waiting on more updates in those areas,
I think we hit on a lot of good stuff. I don't want to exhaust it because we are going to
dive into this on a live stream shortly. So I think that unless there's any other comments,
we can move to wrap this one up. And
definitely, like I said, just before we do so, I'll encourage everyone, we'll keep it open for a few
more minutes. Go to the top of this space. There's a pin post. Check out the Gigacast. Just follow
that Gigacast page. If you throw notifications, that should give you an alert when we do go ahead
and go live as well for all the Tesla fans. And we provide tons of Tesla content on the Gigacast. This is probably a good opportunity just to share it if you haven't seen it. It's a weekly
podcast and show that I run, hosted by myself, and the two speakers on it every week are Sawyer
and Omar. They come on and we provide topical updates on everything happening in the world of
Tesla and really Musk Industries as a whole. We've covered SpaceX, Neuralink, and so much more.
XAI, right?
A lot of stuff on that this past week,
especially with Grok and some other pieces.
So a lot of good stuff that's going to continue to come.
I don't know.
I don't think there's anybody else on stage,
unless anyone else does want to talk.
Evan, is there anything that you want to pop in with here
towards the end portion?
I think that he might.
I think he had to step away. Yep, no problem. No worries. Yeah, yeah, you're good. I think that he might think he had to step away.
Yep, no problem.
No worries.
Yeah, yeah, you're good.
I appreciate everyone.
Follow the speakers.
Early season is back full swing.
Shout out Ernie Sub.
I'm excited to hear
what the gigacast noise
has to say.
Yeah, it was a fantastic call
as always.
Make sure you're following
the host.
Make sure you're following
all your speakers.
Same time, same place tomorrow.
Looking forward to it. Thank you. Make sure you're following the host. Make sure you're following all your speakers. Same time, same place tomorrow. Looking forward to it.
Yep, turn back over to you.
Yeah, great conversation today.
A lot of really smart people up here sharing their thoughts.
And then, of course, we get to see and listen to the full earnings call there from Tesla tomorrow.
Same time, same place.
We'll be live again at 3 p.m. Eastern for Power Hour.
We'll have general market discussion,
all kinds of different talks.
We may have some reactions to some of this.
I'm sure some of our panelists will be able to dig deeper
into the Tesla earnings as well as Google earnings.
We didn't really have a deep dive on that.
So I'm sure we'll hear about some of that tomorrow.
We also have some earnings tomorrow afternoon.
Intel, Coke, C-O-K-E, that version of Coke,
and Decker Outdoors are the main three that I'm seeing here.
So we'll hear from that tomorrow.
We'll be live from 3 till 5.
Thanks, everyone, that tuned in.
And I hope you have a great rest of your Wednesday evening.
Take care, everyone.
We'll be live from 3 to 5.
Here we go.
Or 3 to 7 today.
Love for the grind, the dedication. Thank you.
