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Tesla $TSLA Tuesday Deep Dive
Recorded: Aug. 26, 2025 Duration: 1:00:24Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. good morning everybody welcome on in to today's tesla tuesday space excited to be talking with
everybody and good to see a couple of folks popping up here on
stage right off the bat tesla by the way pretty solid week the past week inside of the stock
market it's up almost three percent in that time period still kind of trailing along here we're
still at the same price that we were at back in may but there's been a lot of amazing development
since then and of course there's there's many things that Elon continues to focus on across the board that
we'll talk about.
I did see, Robert, you joined up right off the bat here.
Curious to maybe hear your latest thoughts on things you've been watching, maybe specifically
with the new FSD models, hardware models, pieces like that.
There's a lot of Tesla v Waymo on my timeline.
So yeah, curious to hear your thoughts. I mean, my thesis relies on RoboTaxi and Optimus and a few other things. That's so many
trucks, right? I just had my first ride in the RoboTaxi in San Francisco last Friday night.
It's really a good service. It's coming along. My safety driver was an AI team member, which shocked me a little
bit. I thought they were just hiring people off the street to drive people around. But no,
this is an engineering effort. And they just expanded it in Austin this morning,
a big expansion. They're using this to finish off both FSD and get RoboTaxi really perfected for
when they open it up to the public. And I think based on what I was seeing with the driver and
talking with the driver, they need probably six months more of this kind of effort, maybe less.
The driver's like, it might be less. It's happening faster than even he was expecting.
But it's going to take a little bit more effort to finish off the service and make it perfect to bring out to the public.
So I'm thinking somewhere around the middle of next year, maybe a little earlier, that we're going to see a real expansion with humanless cars, right?
And that'll be when this thing really starts popping
because RoboTaxi is going to drive FSD take-up rates.
Omar, I was on his subscriber space on Sunday.
We talked a lot about this.
There's still many Tesla owners haven't tried FSD, right?
And don't know how good it's getting.
The RoboTaxi is going to help them understand that next year sometime.
And so that's what I'm looking at.
We could talk about Robo.
I have a couple questions.
Yeah.
Could you tell the difference between the version of FSD that you have in your car and what was driving in the robo taxi?
No, it's getting really hard. I mean, you know, I do a lot of driving in Silicon Valley, San Francisco Bay Area.
Literally every drive is perfect now. It's very rare that I have to take over. It's smooth. It's confident. It's getting there. Right. And I
couldn't really tell much of a difference while being in the car, other than the driver is not
supposed to take over. It's supposed to be, you know, he told me I'm supposed to act like it's a
human-less ride here, but he's there just for safety and for bringing feedback.
Like one time I was in the right lane in San Francisco and there was a car stopped the way up
ahead and my car jittered across the line into the next lane, then the left lane and jittered back.
the line into the next lane and the left lane and jittered back and he didn't take over but i said
you know i count that as a mistake do you what do you do with that he goes oh that goes in my report
uh at the end of the ride uh to to the robo taxi team also the the robo taxis that are driving
around are continually uh recording they're recording everything from the cameras,
and that's helping map out the city and map out places that they can drop off and pick up people
and fix the system. When he arrived, he stopped right in front of me, and when I got in, I said,
did AI do that or did you do that? Oh, I did that. We're trying to train the system to stop more accurately where they're supposed to stop and pick people up.
And that's the kind of engineering effort that they're doing right now to train the AI so that it can understand where it should stop to pick somebody up in a city.
Right.
And that's why I say it's still a little
bit unfinished, just a tiny bit, that they need to do this kind of engineering effort to get it to
the place where they can bring it out to the public and start driving without a human in the car.
It makes sense that all the data that they've gathered from our cars doesn't
have a whole lot of information on where to stop and pick up people. So I'm not surprised that
they're working on a manual effort there. It seems like he was answering all of your questions.
Did it seem like he wasn't on an NDA? Was there anything that he wasn't answering for you?
He said, I'm very willing to talk. He said, the team is told not to talk to passengers
unless they're talked to. Right. And he goes, if you're talking to me, I'm very willing to tell
you what I'm seeing, what I'm doing. And he told me all about the network and what he's doing when
he's not driving people around. It actually picks a random spot for him to drive to because it wants more data. The system itself wants more data about the city.
He told me if there's a spot where they've had problems like this jittery
lane, right, that they'll,
the system will take them there dozens of times to revalidate and make sure
that that problem isn't showing up or,
or give it the data to fix the problem. Right.
And so he was very open. I, and most Tesla employees are that way.
I've met executives in the parking lot at Fremont factory and that tell me
all about stuff that's coming. And then a week later,
Elon announces something that he just told me about. Right.
So they're, they're usually pre-open.
They're getting a little bit more secretive,
but they're nice people.
And I really enjoyed talking with them.
And I was happy to see that they're really putting
an AI team out there because that's the forcing function
that's going to get us to fix potholes
and fix the last things that it's make doing wrong getting in the wrong
lane once in a while stuff like that if they drive it they won't be able to ignore it but you're
right it is so good now I mean my car is the old hardware and I'm in the same situation as you in
Southern California where I almost never have to take over on my drives.
It just is flawless all the time in the old car.
So I can't imagine what it's going to be like in these robo taxis, especially when I hear new models coming with 10 times as many parameters.
It's so cool to see the geofences growing as fast as they are.
is growing as fast as they are i saw on sawyer's page today uh that is like 850 increase since
the start in boston already the size of the geofence there and i'm just so impressed with
the speed of the rollout it's pretty awesome to witness yeah um omar can tell you a lot more about
the 10 times model i mean elon's hinted at what's coming. I've seen him talk about
it's a safety update first, and then you're probably going to see pothole avoidance and
much better shopping, parking lot kind of things, parking and picking up and stuff like that would
be much better. Because that's where I noticed my hardware for car still doesn't do perfect it's like ah you didn't pick a good spot you know to
park in omar what do you think of the expansion that we're seeing and some of the items robert
just discussed there hey yeah so a lot lot of really exciting stuff happening.
So, you know, really, if you're a Tesla investor,
I think one of the big things you're looking at right now is we have self-driving, which is to say truly driverless cars
in five cities in the United States right now.
And over the next few years,
every city in the United States is going to get self-driving.
And then every city around the world is going to get self-driving. All the innovations that we're
seeing in the LLM space and AI, they're going to apply to the physical world too. So right now,
we're just seeing a massive, massive expansion of this technology.
I mean, you can't even go a few days without hearing some announcement about how this technology is going places that it's never went before.
Like when we heard that New York City is approving for the first time Waymo's in the city with the safety driver up to eight cars now you know it's not a fully driverless
deployment but they've never allowed that in new york city before so pretty much every week you're
hearing announcements about this technology expanding further to places that have never had
it before and tesla just recently well well not even recently, just right before this
space, they've expanded their Austin Geofence again. It's only been a few months since they've
launched the service, but they've already done three or four service area expansions and
they now have by far the biggest driverless service area in Austin, even beating out Waymo in terms of the
number of areas that they cover. So if you live in one of those neighborhoods that the RoboTaxi
serves but not Waymo yet, you're probably going to be glad to hear that, especially ahead of the
fact that in September they're going to be opening this service up to the public. No invite needed.
they're going to be opening this service up to the public. No invite needed. So that's really
great to see the service expanding in Austin. Unfortunately, the service area doesn't look like
a penis anymore. So that's unfortunate. But, you know, you have to expand it to more people at the
end of the day. And really, the reason why you're going to see them
be able to service a much bigger area is because they have technology that can make an ordinary
car self-driving. And they're going to ultimately be able to put a lot more cars on the road.
But beyond the driverless service in Austin and the rideshare service in the Bay Area, which still has a human
behind the wheel, FSD supervised is continuing to expand as well. It's now in the United States,
Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, China. And there's a couple of more countries that are being added that are pretty significant
because they're right-hand drive countries. We're starting to see the first videos now of
FSD supervised in Australia and New Zealand. So this is very significant in that it's the
first time they've actually deployed right-hand drive FSD. So FSD
will now be driving not just on the right side of the road, but on the left side of the road,
using cars that have steering wheels on the other side. So adapting the AI so that it can sort of
drive anywhere in the world, right-hand drive or left-hand drive is significant. This is going to
open up a few more new markets. And just generally, they're working really hard on expanding
internationally, going to places like Europe. They've posted videos now in Germany, Italy,
Spain, UK, showing off some pretty crazy situations. So that's really exciting,
that international expansion. And I think Australia and New Zealand have everything they need from a regulatory perspective to actually launch there.
So there's no other self-driving system right now that works in more than one country.
There's just the U.S. self-driving companies, which work in the U.S US and there's the Chinese self-driving cars which
only work in China. Nobody's actually built a system that can drive all around the world.
So really what you're seeing from Tesla here is the build out of the first truly global
autonomous rideshare network and that is super interesting to see. I'm really excited for some of our international friends
who've been waiting a long time to be able to try this.
And yeah, they're now closing in on 5 billion miles traveled.
If you added up all the other self-driving car companies in the industry,
I think it's less than a billion miles,
probably just a few hundred million.
So they're really operating at a scale that's unprecedented.
They're running on 8 million cars.
They're preventing accidents every day.
By my conservative estimate,
they've prevented 1,800 crashes and saved 59 lives so far with this technology so far.
So yeah, I think this is really kind of the primary focus for Tesla investors right now, watching the service expand.
And the team is pushing very aggressively to expand it.
These are the very early days in terms of deployment.
Like I said, right now, it's just in really one city for Tesla.
But they're working hard to get every city in the country and ultimately every city in the world enabled with this tech.
Yeah, I wonder when it's going to get turned on in China. For investors, China is the crown
jewel. There's 10 cities bigger than New York in China. And when they turn on in China, I would
expect a pop in the stock. And certainly as we get to where we can drive without humans in the car,
that's going to be when I expect the stock to start popping.
You know, it might be a little while.
So don't be expecting to make a lot of money tomorrow.
It's an expensive stock and there's a lot of headwind against the stock.
But if you take a 10 year approach, I don't see how anybody stops this company.
Yeah, definitely that long-term approach is the correct mindset to be taking.
Landon, would you like to join into the conversation?
Good morning, Wolf. The Colorado Springs Gazette and other local news stations reported on Saturday
that there were calls coming into emergency services all over the area because up through
the thick clouds on the 14,000-foot mountain, there were some kind of strange flashing lights
and people were asking if there's UFOs, if the Air Force was testing in the area, or if it was
lightning, or perhaps even a forest fire. But what actually was happening is Diana's Denver Tesla
Club had people join from all over the country and multiple countries around the world to drive
over 200 Teslas straight up the hairpinned mountain road to the top of America's
mountain, and they performed a world record Tesla light show with over 400 people, over 200 cars.
We went through snow, ice, rain, and thick fog and clouds to get up to the top of the summit.
We had to bring oxygen with us, Wolf. We
all carried cans of oxygen around, and some of us had to take a break. Because of the altitude,
there's just no air up there. But the residents of Colorado Springs were reporting up to 40 miles
away that they could see our light show of over 200 Teslas, over 60 Cybertrucks at this event.
And the light show was performed by Simon of TeslaLightShows.io, and the world record was
secured. It was an amazing event, Wolf, to see. I stopped at the bottom at the base camp,
and I did an unofficial poll of the Teslas driving up as they went by,
and I asked for a thumbs up, are you using FSD for this mountain road? There's no lines on this road.
There's no guardrails on this road, and the hairpin curves are like nothing I've ever seen.
They're so sharp. You have to slow down to about eight miles an hour. And then we've got this parade of cars going up, escorted by the National Park Service rangers.
And we did it.
Wolf, it was amazing to come together with the community.
People in town could see this through the clouds.
And it's unbelievable because this mountain, America's Mountain at 14,000 feet, you know, that's approaching three miles above sea level.
But it was an amazing, amazing thing to see the news agencies reporting positive Tesla reporting all across the front range and farther around the country.
News agencies are reporting good news from Tesla.
The Tesla community loves their vehicles
and they love the company
and a lot of them invest in the company.
And here we were, we came together
for all of these cars, hundreds of cars.
There were no accidents.
There were no injuries.
There were no fights.
There were no political discussions.
I don't think anybody brought in
up any negatives at all.
But we're all able to come together from
around the world to celebrate Tesla and to create this world record light show at 14,115 feet.
And as I connect with people that I met at this event, new friends and old in the Tesla community,
people have smiles on their faces as they
return back home, and they're using FSD to do it. And this is just absolutely amazing to me
to see the number of people, the kinds of people, the people from all demographics.
This is not a DEI event. We didn't contact people from other ethnicities and ask them to come.
They just showed up because our community is diverse.
I joked that the Wokes and the Magas all came together to create this light show of unity.
Thanks for letting me report on it.
I put up in the top that this is the report from the news agencies. And I'm going to attach next
Simon's World Record Light Show. It really is moving to watch. Please enjoy. Thanks for the
time. Thanks for letting me share my excitement because to spend the time shoulder to shoulder
with these people that love Tesla and to hear their stories about why they invest and why they buy just absolutely
cements in my mind that we are just
cut off there at the end
did he cut out for you guys too yeah i mean overall i got the the general gist of it landon with the world record being set which
is pretty cool and yeah just nice to see the community getting around and then the positive
coverage on that event i can imagine that was a lot of fun was anyone else that's up here on stage
there yeah jc what's going on hey wolf how you doing yeah it was great
so exactly what landon said it was a phenomenal event diana uh just really showed out with the
denver tesla club in uh tesla owners club and getting that put on. It was just amazing. And exactly like Landon said as well,
most of us used FSD to get up there,
up the mountain and back down the mountain.
And it worked just brilliantly.
It was, you know, FSD really did well on Pike's Peak.
And he was definitely right about the oxygen.
I live in an area that's
not at sea level or actually a little bit below sea level here in uh in the houston ship channel
area but uh yeah it was it was just fantastic what a great experience and uh yeah and i'm also
really excited to see this morning the uh announcement of the geofence expansion in Austin.
That's really cool.
I was kind of overlaying the map to kind of get a sense of what, I mean, you're basically almost to Pflugerville on this geofence and all the way down to Mustang Alley down the side.
fence and all the way down to Mustang alley down the side. I mean, that I just did give you a
sense, Wolf, that there are feed stores on the outer edge of the, of the damn geo fence. Now,
I mean, this is getting past Austin. This is about expanding out over the state of Texas
is if you're getting the Northern part of your geo fences, hitting a Purina horse feed store.
Um, I don't know how many
people are going to be hauling horse feed on a robo taxi starting today, but I mean, they could
do it. So that's really, really cool to see that. And so that's kind of, that's the things that I'm
excited about. Well, oh, the other thing I was going to say, it's not really tesla related but as i was uh driving back to houston from the um hikes peak
event just driving through west texas and i'm sure everybody that saw my you know word salad on x
about it is probably tired of hearing about it but you know the kind that the war that's kind of
happening on renewable energy right now the The folks in West Texas did not get
that memo. There are wind farms and solar panels all over that place. So what I want to, you know,
announce is that if we're going to have a war on renewable energy, get your forces and take them
to Prescott and Vernon, Texas, because that's where the enemy is. That is where the socialist postmodern
Marxist who are putting up all these wind farms are located. It's in Vernon, Texas. Everybody get
over there and stop them. Get over there and stop them. JC, what else have you been looking at in
regards to, you know, robotaxi happening, Optimus coming up,
just anything else in general that's been kind of exciting you or stuff that
Elon's been talking about, or I see Omar muting there too.
What's that, Wolf? Anything else exciting me?
Yeah, just kind of, well, I guess, Omar,
did you have something you wanted to jump in with first?
Oh, yeah, sorry. I didn't realize I was unmuted.
I was just going to say that, you know,
Sawyer pointed out that Geofence is now
almost 10 times larger than it was on launch day.
And that was just two months ago.
How, I guess,
how much more do you think they can scale that rapidly?
Like, what's the things that allow them to scale rapidly and then what helps them back in these areas where they already have gotten, you know, initial approval?
You know, I mean, they want to cover the entire planet.
This is just the first toe in the water, what they're doing in Austin.
And, you know, obviously they're expanding rapidly, but they're trying to drive in Europe.
They're shipping right-hand drive support for the first time on Friday.
They really want to take this technology to every corner of the earth because people want self-driving everywhere.
They don't only want it in five cities or only in the major cities or only in the suburbs. So they're really trying to build a
tech foundation where they can scale this across the entire world. And given the regulatory
situation in Texas, I mean, they now have a permit to operate without a driver in the entire state of texas so yeah i expect them to
continue to go to san antonio houston dallas um maybe even eventually offer rides between those
cities in an autonomous car this is really just the beginning i I mean, this is the first two months and they're already expanding 10X.
I would be willing to bet that by the end of the year,
their service area in Texas has 10X again.
It seems to me like right now,
the bottleneck is probably safety drivers, right?
No matter where they do it.
Robert was talking about,
he's got an AI team member
actually in the car with him I don't I don't think that probably all the safety drivers are like that
but many of them are skilled and trained I'm sure they're trying to gather data for the pickup and
drop-off points stuff like that I gotta think for as long as they have those human operators in the
car hiring them and getting them into
different locations is probably the bottleneck for increasing the rollout too much i think uh
as soon as they remove that then it becomes purely regulatory and like where can where are they
allowed to operate and and you know for now that's somewhat limited but if the safety numbers look
good and the service is well received and people are it, I can't imagine that cities are going to push back too hard, like their residents are going to want the service. So I got to think, you know, yeah, first the drivers and then regulatory. And I agree with Omar, I think another 10x before the end of the year is likely. I said in a post maybe a month ago that I
would be shocked if they don't have unrestricted nationwide coverage by the end of next year.
And I'm talking like no drivers in the car, the car goes anywhere it wants. So that gives us
you know a year and some change and again I'd be shocked if we didn't reach that point.
and some change.
And again, I'd be shocked
if we didn't reach that point.
I'm excited to continue to see the growth.
Let's bring in those real quick
who haven't had a chance to speak yet.
Chris, Kristen, I see you are on stage,
I believe.
Sometimes it glitches for me,
but I do believe that you're up here.
Curious to get your thoughts,
what you've just been looking at
over the past week,
thoughts on the expansion of RoboTaxi, and then what else maybe we're not talking about that we
should be. Yeah, thanks, Wolf. To be literal, I have been looking at flowers. I was a bridesmaid
and doing flowers for a wedding this last week, so I've been taxed out, but I am back.
I was a groomsman for my first time. Nice, yes. The wedding was last night, so it was good. It
was beautiful. I love seeing people
I love meet their partner and somebody just as great that they love them back. It just,
it feels so good to see people find someone that cares for them and they love them. But
watching just everything that the robotaxi expanding, I need to get down there. I need
to get to either San Francisco or Texas and try the robotaxi. I'm watching people do it and I know
that they're going to open it up to the general public, but you know, I want to try it. I'm very
excited and it looks like its take is going really well, so it's good to see. I don't think anyone
brought up that the NHTSA for the crash test reporting for Cybertruck got five stars, better
than any pickup out there. And so it's exciting to see just Tesla continue to put out
excellence to hone their craft and the way that they make vehicles. And this truck is now,
it's outperforming the other pickups in the crash test reading, which Teslas make the safest cars
out there. It's just not a line. It's real. And that's why I get a Tesla. I love the sentry mode.
I love that. I know that. I mean, there's stories of people driving their Teslas off cliffs with
their family and the people are walking away alive. And that's just a mind blow. And this
happens time and time again. Also, Tesla's opening up the sales of Cybertruck in three days on the
29th in Korea, which is really cool to see the Cybertruck moving globally out there. You know,
I know there's people in Europe that want the Cybertruck to have sales there in other places. So it's happening. Tesla's pushing through the different red tape and
different things and getting the Cybertruck sells and sold in other places. So it's exciting to watch.
Yeah, that is super fun. And expansion is the name of the game. You know, Omar hit on it,
right? They want to go all around the world. You're talking about it too. It opens up more markets, more opportunity. It turns this from,
you know, really more of a car company into something that can offer more of these variety
of robo taxi options, people in new areas not having to buy the car, right? And then with the
Cybertruck, interesting pieces there as well. I did see that there was a glitch one day. Omar,
did you see it where people were getting a higher value than they paid for their Cybertrucks in the offer in the app? But
I think that they fixed that. I saw that. I saw there was some confusion on timeline. Someone's
like, oh, I bought the Cybertruck and they offered me more for it than I bought it for.
But I thought that was interesting as well. And then the one other thing that's still on my radar
that probably doesn't get talked too much about, but roadster as well i know that you want to talk about that
being you know one of the most amazing demos that he had seen so that's coming as well so you do
have a lot of pieces to continue to eye up this year and throughout all right let's just go over
to captain ellie real quick and check in with. What's going on in your part of the world?
Hey, what's up? What's up? How's it going? Good to be here.
Yeah, good. So for me, obviously, I'm going to be selfish and I'm going to focus on Europe.
And let's not pretend that whatever Elon is talking about is not news.
Obviously, everything he does is news.
So outside of Starship and the service that got expanded, which is amazing, is focusing for the last two days on Europe.
We all see the posts. Obviously, I'm not here to talk politics, but it feels like he's a bit frustrated with whatever is going on with Europe for his companies.
Obviously, I'm emphasizing Tesla. So right now to see everything that's going on in the U.S. is amazing.
I'm happy for you guys. Obviously, happy when tesla does good things but with the situation uh in europe is looks so bad and
we don't have the technology uh tesla technology fsd and it's still delayed 2025 is not almost over
but we can see the end uh and still no fs, still no amazing technology that basically the car has,
but cannot offer to customers.
So I'm just frustrated, obviously.
So once again, happy for you guys, frustrated for us.
And don't forget that the UNICE basically control 30 countries.
So that's the last piece of the puzzle.
And I just can't wait.
I can't wait to see it. I can't wait to see it.
I can't wait to have it.
And I can't wait to talk about it with customers,
potential customers,
because right now it's all theory
and we want it to become live.
And yeah, so that's what I'm focusing on.
And once again, thank you for letting me speak.
Of course, of course.
Appreciate you coming up and sharing as well.
Love hearing from just different areas, what people are focused on. I see Sawyer up and sharing as well love hearing from just different
areas what people are focused on I see Sawyer in the audience as well perfect just got him up
Sawyer how's everything going we've been talking a little bit about your post about the expansion
of the RoboTaxi area looks like that is a 850 increase in the 65 days since they've launched
and we're kind of focused a little bit on where
they could be expanding to next how rapidly they could be expanding so we'd love to hear your
thoughts yeah um tesla said early on that they were going to expand the original geofence by 10x
and essentially they've done that now they've pretty much achieved that at this point um
but they're not really close to done
i think we've seen those validation robotexy validation test vehicles all the way out
west as far as you know b cave and then as north as uh georgetown so i think in the coming weeks
we should definitely expect more expansions in that area uh i see some people pointing out that giga texas is now in the
geofence that is true but i don't think you could actually go there on in a robot taxi yet unless
you're an employee maybe but if you're just a regular robot taxi app user i don't think you
can go there because you have to take a highway i believe to to get there so i correct me if i'm
wrong though but uh and the same thing with the airport I think that's within the geofence, but I don't think you can actually go there,
but I guess maybe we'll have some people test later today and see if that's possible or not.
Um, but nonetheless, this is like great progress from going from June 22nd to August 26th, 65 days,
850% increase, uh, from 18 square miles to 171 square miles in the geofence.
That's great, great progress.
Now the question is, I think people at this point want to see like,
okay, when's it going to open access to the public?
Elon indicated that'll happen next month.
And then when do the safety monitors get pulled from the vehicles?
I don't suspect that'll happen for quite a while.
suspect that'll happen for quite a while. Maybe FSD-14 will be good enough to enable that.
Maybe FSD-14 will be good enough to enable that.
But I suspect they're just going to continue to want to take the cautious approach here. And I
think they should. And if anything were to go wrong, you know the media and everyone would be
blowing it out of proportion and calling them for them to shut it down. And so we don't want
a sort of a cruise situation where there's one incident and then it just ends everything,
ends the sort of party. So they're going to take the cautious approach i know they're probably getting tons of pressure
from people to like remove the safety monitors but i think they should just ignore all that just
take this cautious approach here but yeah i think the the new geofence today is about 94 percent
larger than waymos is currently uh 88 square miles for Waymo, 171 for Teslas.
So it's kind of fun to see this sort of back and forth
and these two companies expanding their fences.
Yeah, what do you think about kind of the direction that Waymo is taking now?
Do you think that they're going to get a little bit more aggressive?
I think they're just going to continue to follow their own path.
And regardless of Waymo's geofence, I still like, for example, last week,
Waymo was talking about how in Atlanta in a few years,
they expect to expand to a few hundred vehicles within Atlanta.
I'm like, a few hundred, that's it?
Because they only have a few dozen right now. And they're talking as like, a few hundred, that's it? Because they only have a few
dozen right now. And they're talking as if like a few hundreds a lot. And so I don't see their path
to scale, to profitability. I know the Uber CEO was talking about the falling cost of LIDARs,
but that's still a more complicated approach, a more costly approach nonetheless and so it's going to be fun to see
them expand their geofence but can they actually like make a profit and expand their car fleets
of thousands and thousands of vehicles um i don't know if they're solely going to rely on their
ziker sort of modified vehicles um for their sixth generation hardware solely i don't know if
they're going to have other vehicles that'll use that sixth generation hardware i don't know
it's kind of sort of tricky because zeeker is a chinese company and they produce their
vehicles in china so you have that sort of tariff situation increasing the cost of the vehicles so
that's not great for waymo um yeah i don't know to be honest
yeah we shall see i mean they've just moved really slowly for a long time
so it seems like this might give them a little bit of the kick in the butt just curious also
sir because i know you don't really pay close attention to this any updates on hirings firings
people coming and going within the tesla world lately
that you've been paying attention to uh i think the north the head of service in north america
left recently but to be honest like tesla's just one of those companies where there's historically
high churn and you know there have been some tenured employees that have been there a long
time that have left recently but we kind of see that almost every year. This employee that was here for 10 years left.
I remember back in 2019-ish, there were just a ton of long-term employees that left,
and people were really worried that it might need something that Tesla's going down the hole or
whatever, but everything turned out to be fine. And Elon is a guy that will make pivots if things
aren't going well. And I think in terms of the sales, at least,
we saw a lot of change on the sales front with, you know,
Amit leaving and Troy Jones,
the VP of sales and service in North America leaving.
And now Raj is a new head of sales in North America.
And I think he has some other titles as well.
But I've been really liking the
transparency that we've been getting from Raj, not only just on sales stuff, but people are
asking him questions right on X, and he's answering with kind of unprecedented levels
of transparency, to be honest. He's telling us that they might increase vehicle prices, and
we're going to take away incentives in the coming days. We haven't typically gotten that level of
transparency from a Tesla executive on X, so that's pretty fun. But no, I don't tend to worry too much about
when executives leave Tesla. We've seen this, I think over the last five, six years,
there's been dozens and dozens of executives leaving. And I think as long as Elon is at the
helm, things will, will be fine. Indeed. indeed. It's continued to be a little bit of
come and go, but they seem to be doing a great job. Elon hasn't posted too much on Tesla last
few days, but he did retweet your post about the geofence expanding. That's really the only Tesla
post that I've seen. Really, I guess his retweets of your posts i'm just glad we're getting
few grok imagine posts because that was wild he was posting like 200 times a day tons of like
half naked women like dancing i'm like i'm glad to see some starship content from him and other stuff
yeah he was going down the uh the gooner alley it was interesting um yeah we'll see you come back
from there come back to the light
side. It'll be good. One other question for you, Sory, and I'll see maybe if Penny or others have
questions that they want to throw into the mix. And this was, we're getting closer to EV credits
ending. We are just five days pretty much from September. I know that we talked about, hey,
September. I know that, you know, we talked about, Hey, there could be a big rush here.
there could be a big rush here. Do you want to just go a little bit deeper into that?
Do you want to just go a little bit deeper into that?
Sure. One thing that worries me is like, if you actually look at polls, most people have no clue
that an EB credit exists. So if you take that and then you add into the factor that it's ending
next month, fewer, even fewer people know that it's ending. And then on top of this, the IRS just
clarified some of their language or, you know just clarified some of their language or updated some of their language.
And that they're adding some level of flexibility for EV buyers heading into the end of the credit on September 30th.
So even fewer people know about this.
So I really hope Tesla is figuring out a way to not only educate people that all this exists and this new language has been updated, but that they're communicating
that clearly. So we'll see what happens. I imagine they're still figuring out what to do
based on this updated IRS language, because it's a little bit tricky.
But basically what the IRS did is they clarified for EV buyers to have some extra flexibility
heading into the end of the credit. And that if you sign a binding contract and make a payment,
which I assume includes a small down payment or the order payment, the $ if you sign a binding contract and make a payment, which I assume includes a
small down payment or the order payment, the $250 you put down to order a Tesla, I imagine that'll
count. Or if you do a trade-in before September 30th, you essentially lock in your eligibility.
And so that basically means the car does not have to be delivered by September 30th. You can take
delivery weeks or months later, you know, in October, November, if you end up ordering, you know,
a custom factory car or whatever,
but as long as you are in that sort of binding contract.
And then the credit is only applied
once the car is actually in service,
or i.e. when you, you know, take delivery.
But the eligibility is tied to the contract dates,
which has to be by September 30th.
And then once you actually take delivery of the car, the dealer will provide a time of sale report, and then you would upload that to the
government portal so you can actually take advantage of the credit. So this is good for
Tesla in that, if I'm understanding this correctly, it will reduce pressure from Tesla to sort of
cram as many vehicle deliveries in as they can for everyone to take advantage of this credit by the end of Q3.
And that if they have an overflow, they can actually push some of those deliveries to Q4,
and those people can still take advantage of this thing. But I imagine Tesla's legal team
and accounting team is sort of figuring out, okay, does this $250 that people put down,
can that count as sort of the down payment? Because historically, when you order a Tesla,
and then you get your final bill for it, you got to pay for it, that $250 is counted towards the
total. So that's taken off the total, rather. So nonetheless, this is good, I think, for Tesla
and all EV makers, really, because this means that they can sort of not be forced
to do every single last delivery for people
that want to take advantage of the EV credit in Q3.
They can push some of that to Q4,
and that will result in less of a significant drop, I think,
of EV sales in Q4 than maybe people were expecting.
I still think it'll be tough.
It'll be a tough quarter for most EV makers,
and especially heading into Q1.
But I think with this Model Y L launching,
the Model Y performance probably coming in Q4,
and then the probably more affordable Model Y
or whatever it ends up being in Q4 in North America,
I think that'll sort of offset some of the decline
we might have seen from the loss of EV credit.
Sir, you mentioned you think that they'll go slowly
with removing the safety drivers.
They'll take the cautious route.
Do you have a sense for how long the cautious route is?
You think it's a year?
You think it's more or less?
I think if you would ask me in June,
I would have said,
oh, it'll probably be a couple months or so.
But to be honest,
now that I'm kind of thinking like
maybe through the end of the year, at least in certain areas, maybe not everywhere.
And I don't know how many cars are going to end up having.
But if they have, if Elon is correct and they actually do open access to the public next month, you can't do that unless you have a lot of cars in the fleet.
And so that means a lot more safety monitors.
So I'm not sure how they tackle that,
but I think just for now,
they're just going to keep the safety monitors.
They're getting a lot of sort of hate
and criticism for that
and that it's not a true robo taxi service
because of that.
But honestly, who cares?
It doesn't matter really how Tesla started.
It really matters where they're going
and where they ultimately end up.
And so if this means safety monitors for the first six months, nine months,
whatever it is, it doesn't really matter as long as they get to where they need to go.
Yeah, Scott, I see your hand up.
Yes, to get to the tax extension, potentially going to the end of the month, I think it'd
be a great opportunity for Tesla to potentially release some of these variants a little early
because you have to thank people that were expecting to get that tax credit for the Model
A lot of people that follow, like us, they know that there was a four-week window and
that window was coming up. So, you know,
I think a lot of people already put their orders in, but if they can potentially sell, get credit
for Q4 deliveries, uh, early by people, you know, placing an order towards the end of the month and
getting the card delivered in October, I mean, you know, it seems like a no brainer to me and,
you know, Tesla should take advantage of that.
Another thought that I have in the beginning of the year, Lars was on the Jay Leno show,
and he mentioned a performance coming out later in the year.
And he also mentioned, and he specifically said seven-seater.
So question to Omar, do you think he was just referring to the model y long
being released in china or do you think that there's potentially a seven seat variant model
y similar to what we had before that's going to be released q4 with the performance
yeah i would be very surprised if they released a seven-seater model y i have to assume he was
talking about the model yl but who knows i think like model seven seat model y it was only like
two percent of sales or something like i i don't know if it really makes sense for them with this
model yl and you know unless they don't end up bringing the Model YL to North America, then I could maybe see a reason. But yeah,
the seven seat Model Y was never that popular because the third row was so cramped. What they've
done with the Model YL, where they've actually physically extended the car, made it just a little
bit longer, just a little bit taller. So it's a little bit more, a little bit taller so it's a little bit more you know natural
to have that third row i think that's the right path for a three row model y and hopefully they'll
bring that to the u.s and europe sooner rather than later but yeah i'd be very surprised if they
tries to squeeze the third row into the existing Model Y for the U.S. market.
Okay. Yeah, because I placed an order. I've been waiting all year for the seven-seater. I have a
four- and a six-year-old, so it actually works out perfect for holidays when I get to bring the
mother-in-law out or if I'm going out to eat with my parents. It's perfect for me,
but it never came. i placed an order and
i'm thinking well do i cancel my order and then put an order on september 30th and then right i'll
know in october if it's going to be released and then worst case scenario i just pay one
cancellation fee and then delay my delivery a month wait so they actually took orders for a seven seater new Model Y?
No, no. I was saying, right, hypothetically, I could cancel the Model 3 order I have right now,
put an order in at the end of September to lock in the tax credit because I plan on doing a
lease buyout, right? And then that will take me into October. So I'll have a few weeks wiggle room to see if they release something.
Yeah, that's an interesting thought.
But I would probably recommend people, you know, like this point of sale credit is the
most amazing thing ever.
And I took advantage of it for my Model 3.
The government literally gives you $7,500. You never
see it. You don't have to worry about tax time. And you get this amazing AI4 self-driving car.
So I would probably not flirt with disaster here. This is the Trump administration we're
talking about. Who knows? I would try and just take delivery if you want a car uh you know in august if not in
september probably the closer we get to the end of the month the crazier it's going to be even with
this thing that's going on which is a little bit of a relief so um yeah there's definitely i think
going to be a more affordable model y that starts production in Q4. So it'll be interesting to see what that looks like.
Yeah, with the lease bio too, you know, you really capture about 5,500 of the 7,500 with
the research I've done, right?
And then I figure Q4 incentives, right?
Maybe they replace the three-month FSD for, referral to have like a thousand off or something like
that, right. Maybe they include a discount off of the color selection. Cause I did the, uh,
quick silver in the white interior. So like, maybe if like the net increase was like two,
three grand, like to me that that's worth waiting to see, but I, you know, still haven't made up my
mind. I have the order. And then surprisingly, I was
trading in my wife's Jeep, which has 160,000 miles on it. And they're willing to give us 3,100 for it,
which I was pretty surprised. Yeah, I do wonder with that trade in market, if that's going to
continue being pretty, pretty surprising, right? with what people are willing to offer whether that's below above
all those different items but scott appreciate you coming up uh i don't know if we've had to
on too many of these tesla spaces but thank you for coming up and sharing your insights
okay um penny you had some good questions there for sawyer Did you have any other questions for Sawyer or Omar?
No, I'm out now. Thanks, Wolf. No worries. No worries. Okay, cool. Well, I am going to throw one back at Sawyer and then I'll roll around with the rest of this panel just because we're going to
do about eight, nine more minutes here and then we'll wrap up from that point. But I think just
coming back to the stock for a moment, it's been an interesting area right here. We've kind of gotten through some of the bigger events,
you know, earnings, robo-taxi.
I think in the near horizon,
I don't know if you're necessarily going to have
like a huge event that's going to be coming out,
but I'm just curious for investors all around,
Sawyer, what you're looking at
or what people should be looking at over these,
I guess there's about four months left in the year
for accomplishments that, you know, you'd like to see tesla have in 2025 when it comes to the stock i tend to just tell
people like look don't don't pay attention to it tesla stock is just all over the place half the
time the price doesn't make any sense it could be down six percent one day up ten percent another
it's just all just a big game and And I think ultimately what makes sense is, okay,
why are you investing in Tesla? And what is going to take Tesla to a multi-trillion dollar company?
And to me, that is obviously RoboTaxi's autonomy, robotics, to a lesser degree, Tesla Energy.
And so really tracking the progress on those fronts is more important i think
because ultimately if they're producing a ton of revenue profits on on those fronts and those three
businesses then ultimately the stock will go up it'll take care of itself
um so i wouldn't really encourage people to stress too much about short-term price action
just focus on okay how's the geofence expansions going? When's the safety monitor going to come out?
Is it open access to the public?
Just as long as they're continuing to make steady progress towards all these things,
then I think ultimately that's really all that matters.
Absolutely.
Yeah, I think it makes sense, kind of the day by day, just looking for it to expand.
Omar, anything you'd add on to that?
Yeah, I mean, I think Sawyer pretty much nailed it.
They have a blueprint here to become a multi-trillion dollar giant, what they're doing with autonomy
and robotics.
The valuation fluctuations, you know, whether the stock is a little
bit up or a little bit down, you have to kind of tune it out. There's a lot of things happening
in the world and the markets that can cause day-to-day price action. But if you stare at it
and just kind of obsess about it, you're probably going to miss the bigger picture.
kind of obsess about it, you're probably going to miss the bigger picture. So, you know, I think
a valuation above a trillion dollars for Tesla with their core auto business declining is pretty
generous. It really reflects the market's belief that they are going to be a dominant player
in autonomy. And yeah, I think you've seen more people uh sort of look at this you know we're
seeing the service expand we're going to see them launch fsd in australia and new zealand on friday
more investors are looking at this and they're looking at the opportunity in autonomy and
robotics and they're realizing that self-driving cars are here.
There's a massive expansion that's happening, and Tesla's going to play a big part in it.
Then on the other hand, the core auto business, while still struggling, is seeing a little
bit of a boost in the US this quarter.
Troy Tesla has Tesla actually beating analyst consensus. So the auto business
isn't looking as bad this quarter. We'll see what the effect is on Q4 with the demand pull forward.
But right now, it's looking a little bit better. The autonomous side of the business is doing very
well. And I think a lot of analysts are starting to look at that and you're seeing it in some of the reports they're putting out. Some of them are just simply trying the robo-taxi
and trying Waymo and comparing them and saying, wow, the Tesla system actually drives much
smoother, but it runs on an ordinary car. You're seeing people like MKBHD review robo-taxi and
a lot of other independent analysis.
And I think more of the smart money on the street is starting to realize that this is a real thing that's happening.
And yeah, once they get rid of the safety monitors, I completely agree with Sawyer.
You don't want to take the safety monitors out until you're absolutely sure that nobody's ever intervening.
That safety monitor is doing nothing. You don't want a cruise scenario. That's really
the nightmare. Having people make fun of you for starting with the safety driver. I mean,
everybody starts with the safety driver. Nobody just sends the car out there.
the car out there. You know, Waymo's launching in New York City, they have a safety driver.
You know, Waymo is launching in New York City. They have a safety driver.
In a lot of their cities, they have safety drivers still, right? It's part of the process.
So take your time, do it right. But once you've done it right, and you have this model that can
just pilot the car unsupervised all over the country,
then people start to do the math and you get to a multi-trillion dollar valuation.
I think Tesla play is always, you know,
the gap in information between what you know
that Tesla is going to do in the future
versus what the public knows.
And whenever that's the play on a stock, when
you're not looking at fundamentals like deliveries as the primary driver anymore, when it is a
trillion dollar valuation on a company that has declining sales, it's going to be super volatile.
So I agree with Sawyer and Omar, like don't pay too much attention to the day-to-day. You need to
decide, do you think that autonomy and robotics is the
future? Do you think that Tesla is a leader in that? And if so, the long-term approach is kind
of how wolf you open this space. If you want to invest in Tesla, the best idea is to be thinking
out 10 years, in my opinion. And from my point of view, no one is any competition so eyes off the price as much as you can focus
on the future and ask yourself do you know so i was talking about how only a small percentage of
people know that a eb rebate even exists and even a smaller percentage know that it's going away
and that there's this awareness issue right and i think that the same thing exists with Tesla's future. Only so many people know about Optimus. Only so many people know about Robotaxi. And even fewer of them know that the geofence is growing fast and all these different things. from now than what you then do uh but i think you know you're in a big position putting your money in tesla especially as they continue to recruit uh the best engineers in the game because they
want to get involved with these projects like optimus and or robo taxi so uh that's my two
cents on the stock price yeah i did put up a post earlier today which kind of relates this wasn't
about tesla but my post said the most reliable get rich quick scheme is aggressively
saving and investing for 10 years.
All things considered getting rich in 10 years.
It's pretty quick.
One dog's lifespan and you're sad,
but only if you start now.
So there you go.
I think you guys hit the nail on the head.
This was a lot of fun.
I appreciate everyone for coming on.
I got to jump here for a 1 PM.
Sawyer, any final comments you want to leave the space with? head. This was a lot of fun. I appreciate everyone for coming on. I got to jump here for 1 p.m. Sawyer, any final comments
you want to leave the space with?
Nope, I'm good.
Thank you, sir.
Omar, anything else for you?
The most important thing
isn't the EV tax credit
or car sales or anything.
We're moving from an economy
where people buy a car
by financing,
by insurance,
by parking to one where people buy a car by financing, by insurance, by parking, to one where people
are essentially consuming autonomy per mile. So you look at the US market, there's about
3 trillion miles traveled a year by light vehicles. Go give it any value you want,
a dollar, 50 cents. This is a trillion dollar market that is forming in front of our eyes. Now you can,
you know, invest in this. And now think about how much that's going to grow.
If you don't need a human in the car, if the cost of fuel is out of the equation,
is it going to be 3 trillion miles or is it going to be 10 trillion miles?
This is, I think, the most important theme for investors to focus on.
And just like with the internet and mobile phones and apps,
there's going to be a lot of opportunities to invest in these changes
these changes that we're seeing in the world with physical AI.
that we're seeing in the world with physical AI.
1,000%. Physical AI. Love that term right there. Penny, any final comments for you?
I'm good. Thanks, Wolf.
All righty. Thanks so much, everybody, for coming on. Another amazing Tesla Tuesday space. Over 400
of y'all in here i appreciate each and every one
of you i hope that you are as enthralled by tesla as i am this world of physical ai what a what a
way to put it that's great i'm gonna leave it off with that take care everybody we'll see you on the
next one have a great have a great rest of your week Thank you.
