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The Attempted Russian Coup - The Aftermath
Recorded: June 25, 2023 Duration: 3:13:34Space Recording
Short Summary
The transcript primarily revolves around the political dynamics and power struggles within Russia, particularly focusing on the actions and implications of Wagner Group's movements and the response from Russian leadership. Discussions include the potential motivations behind the actions, the strategic responses by Putin, and the broader geopolitical implications. The conversation also touches on the internal stability of Russia and the potential future actions of key figures like Progosian and Putin.
Full Transcription
How's it going, fellas? Have you had a chance to recover from your absolute marathon 24 hours?
Hey, Klee, Ma'am, you got me? For everybody just joining, we're just going to get more speakers before we start the space.
We'll start with the quick we crap and then go to the discussions. Just a couple more minutes.
Mickey, why are we wait? How are you doing, my man?
I'm great. How are you guys doing? I mean, you guys are the ones running, you know, a 24-hour space. Have you guys all had a chance to recover and just relax?
I mean, I'm here, so no, I have not had a chance to recover.
I mean, it's like unbelievable that what you guys did. I mean, the amount of, you know, viewers, it's just something on, like, I went to sleep and then I wasn't on a pretty short time compared to you guys and then wake up and I just see, you know, how many people are listening.
Oh, dude, I fell asleep.
I'm not going to lie.
But I got like three hours of sleep.
I got like three hours of sleep.
And I went, oh, my God, I fell asleep.
And then I was like, oh, let me get back in.
But, uh, yeah, it was a wild ride.
And, hey, Mark, I'm glad you're here, Art.
It's good to have you.
And I know we're going to probably have a lot of conversations
of us a pretty significant-up power plant.
So it's good to see you, man.
Yeah, I survived the weekend, too.
Thanks, guys.
Awesome, yeah. So while we get all the speakers up and grow the numbers, before I give a recap, Mickey, after kind of the, you know, we'll start with that, but, you know, let's have a little conversation now. Like, now that...
What, 24 hours has passed by?
You know, do you think anything that you assessed in the past has changed with the whole Wagner Russian government situation?
Do you, with the more information coming out, does your initial opinion change?
It's still the same.
What do you think?
I would say it's definitely changed.
I've, you know, there's learned a lot more.
And just watching the behavior of things, my conclusion on the intention from Progogian is that, you know, first of all, he's a very clever and strategic person.
Over the last weeks and months, he's been sort of establishing himself as the champion of the Russian soldier condemning the Russian military leadership.
And that was an intentional move to create, you know, to foster alliances, these people which allowed him, which protected him and allowed him to, you know, make a feint towards Moscow and negotiate in order to keep his soldiers and to maybe even make some changes at the MOD.
So I think Progoshin has come out of this.
looking pretty good in my opinion and in much better than I would have judged him to be previously he
basically was able to make demands of Putin the only person who's been able to make demands of Putin
that I can recall is in his entire career and win so far he seems like the big winner and now
looking at a sort of multi-polar russia is kind of a frightening um a frightening idea
And now you're just watching now in Russian media the divide the split.
You know, some people calling for the assassination of progoshin,
others saying that Putin is weak and praising progoshin.
You know, we're sort of starting the beginning of the palace coup phase of this and seeing how it shakes out.
Who knows how it's going to be?
You know, some people think that Putin will come out.
He'll consolidate.
He'll kill progousin and look like a hero.
Other people are doubting that...
Putin can continue.
You know, it's too early to say, but I would say the big surprise for me is just how
deftly Progoshan has played this.
I think you have to, you have to acknowledge that.
You know what's interesting?
And I just admit, I didn't know if you saw this, Mickey, before I start my recap, but
what's probably broken in the last 30 minutes, there's actually a video circling on
Russian social media.
I've actually seen it.
But there's a video on Russian social media and telegram that shows a Chechen fighters decapitating a Wagner fighter.
Like they do a speech, they hold them down, and they actually decapitate them.
Like a retaliation.
I don't know if you've seen those reports.
I doubt you've seen the video.
I have and that's that's horrifying and who knows how real it is but what is certainly true is
Kadyarov you know and pro-goshin don't really get along and you know the big picture thing
people need to know is that there isn't just one crazy guy with his own private army there's like
40 guys with private armies inside of Russia Kadyrov is just one of them and you know if you if you
are if you're a Russian oligarch with the private army you're probably looking around like ooh you
You know, I better be sure that I'm safe and secure here.
And I think a lot of these, if Wagner does get decommissioned,
I think many of these soldiers are going to go into these private armies.
And I know, I think, you know, the fear I think people in Russia would have is infighting
between these groups.
And I, you know, it's possible this has started or it's, you know, it's possible that,
you know, outside forces, one of, you know, a spark conflict between these groups.
It remains to be seen.
I do want to go over a couple, you know, while we're here and just having like an early conversation, I would love to, if we have time, read some of the quotes I have from Russian media because I think it's kind of instructive things that, you know, for someone who lived in Russia group in Russia, I find very shocking.
You know, in the West, people are used to.
direct criticism of leaders, but there's a Soviet Air Force colonel and former member of the Duma,
Victor Altzkinis, who came out, and I'm just going to read the translation of his quote,
because it's absolutely shocking. He said in his telegram that I am forced to bitterly admit that
the Russian Federation is one step closer to its final and irreversal demise. At
As of today, this is the words from this, he lives in Russia, Russian citizen, former Russian member of the Duma.
He says, as of today, there are two presidents in Russia, the very real president, Evgeny Viktorovych Bergozhenin and the jester president for scapegoating, Vladimir Vladimir Vladimir Putin.
The main purpose of the jester president is to periodically address the real president from a kneeling position with the question, what pleases you, Evgeny Viktorovich?
Never, even in my worst nightmare dream, could I have imagined that I would see the shame and destruction of my country?
That is novel, a novel opinion and certainly a rare one from a former member of the Duma and a die-in-the-wall Russian nationalist.
and you're seeing similar statements from pro-ragnar groups and you're also seeing criticism of
pro-grosian from the Russian from Russian state media calling for his execution.
I just thought that's a very interesting and newsworthy conclusion to have from inside of Russia
and the the shockways of Prigogsna's behavior are starting to be felt.
So guys,
that's
Thank you for joining us.
We had a marathon, marathon space, almost 24 hours.
I was waiting until it was 24 hours.
It was like 10 minutes away and I was like, I'm going to do the big drama.
I'm going to be like, guys, they went for 24 hours.
Thanks for joining us.
And then it crashed 10 minutes before.
But.
Almost 24 hours.
Appreciate all the hosts,
all the panelists who joined in and helped and supported,
all of the conversations we had.
What I loved about the spaces we had
diverse opinions, there was a huge amount of pushback,
there was different analysis of what,
the implications of the different areas.
And that's what we wanted on these spaces.
In the mainstream media,
I always believe that there's an agenda
to propagate a certain position.
And so I was happy to see that that wasn't the case on our space,
even if you disagree with some of the conclusions
that some of the panelists came to.
Now, we're here one day later.
There is a panel, sorry, we are looking at the aftermath.
There was an attempted coup, allegedly,
and we're now seeing the aftermath of that coup.
So I'm going to give AllSauce.
I'm going to give the mic to Allsauce.
So he can give us a recap, all sorts,
as unbiased as possible, or if you're going to do it from both perspectives,
whichever way you want to do it.
But what happened?
Like, what started?
What caused us?
Like, you wanted to start the space immediately?
Right.
What made you want to do that?
What happened over the 24 hours?
I think that's the key thing.
I think that's the key thing, right?
And so the reason why when this was broke and I wanted to say, hey, this is a big deal, is because Pergoshan announced that a camp of his owned by Wagner by the mercenary group that he controls, Pergousin being the owner, was attacked by the Russian military.
And if you look back from that time in June 23rd to about, you know, months in the past, you've seen tension build up between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense.
On June 10th, I believe it was the Russian Ministry of Defense wanted to incorporate all, you know, mercenary groups or private military corporations into the Russian MOD, which was clearly a threat to progosin.
When he announced that his camp was attacked, he basically declared war in that same tweet and video, I mean, a telegram post in video that I'm going after the Russian Ministry of Defense, right? And that, that we've never seen that, like an actual, like, threat of armed against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
So from the moment that his place was, his camp was reportedly attack to now.
I mean, like a couple hours later, I'm sorry, you know, from that time frame,
then we started to get reports of two things.
One, Wagner convoys going from Lujansk, which is Russian-occupied Ukraine,
into Roshenov-Dong, which is the city in the southern Russia,
which is a huge military, you know, there's a lot of military bases that is key for Russia
and their operation in Ukraine, and their invasion of Ukraine.
And then the other thing we saw is that the Russian military and the National Guard,
more importantly...
was mobilizing in multiple parts of Russia, specifically Moscow, right?
We saw a huge increase.
And then we saw Russian state media basically starting quickly labeling progogian as a rebel,
as an insurrectionist that need to be dealt with.
So we saw this.
The column was moving.
We saw Wagner get into Russelaadov occupy key installation, military installations in
Rassanodon, and then shortly thereafter started to push north into Moscow
and seizing other cities along the route.
Putin came out with the speech to national TV, basically declaring war again on Progoshin.
Progoshin's first real comments when he was talking about this was not really directed at Putin.
He was directing his criticism at Shogu and Jarzimov.
But after Putin's speech labeling Progoujian basically a traitor that will be dealt with accordingly through violence, through the force,
progosian said, we're going to go after Putin as well, right?
Right.
And so then we saw these reports of Collins moving up.
There were, we have now photos coming, that confirm that multiple Russian helicopters were shot down.
Just a quick one.
I'm going to let you carry on with this.
Yeah.
I mean, he said the president needs to be changed.
I think, yeah, true.
Yeah, true, true, true.
Basically, though, that, that he, he, he openly, he, he openly, uh,
accepted Putin's comments and basically saying, I think what the quote he said, though, if I'm not mistaken, was, well, Putin, you know, as president then won't last longer.
We'll replace him.
Right.
I am not afraid.
I'm going to go after you.
Right.
Right.
And he was going into Moscow with the columns that he had, right, with his military convoys,
which was widely reported on Russian sources, specifically on Telegram.
Russian Telegram was an excellent source of information to get what was going on.
From there, we started to get reports of Russian helicopters being shot down and a Russian
IL-22M communication aircraft that was also shot down.
We do have pictures of those.
We have pictures of multiple of those aircraft shot down.
I think the casualty rates is anywhere between 12 to 20 Russian pilots, mostly got killed in those.
To include, I believe, it was either 10 or 12, it's kind of varies of a of the IL-22 that was shot down.
And we do have pictures of that IL-22 from Russian sources, from Russian telegram and Russian mail bloggers.
That plane crash in Russia.
That was shot down.
And we had the video of the plane flying and being shot down and then crashing.
And again, a lot of this report that we're getting, I just want to heavily emphasize this, that is coming from Russian telegram, right, from either mail bloggers or local telegram channels that are there.
During the advance on June 24th, you know, we then got the first report of Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, managed to get kind of like a halt, a ceasefire if that's the proper term, in which Progosion agreed to not march into Moscow.
And in return, Progoshin would get immunity and all Wagner fighters would get immunity.
The Wagner would be codified into law within the Russian government, but separate from the Ministry of Defense.
Number two.
And in return, Progosian then agreed, oh, and number three, I'm sorry, and the other key one that's always been as the man is that Shoigu and reportedly also Jarzimov, Shogu being the Russian minister of defense and Jarosimov, the chief of staff of the Russian general staff would be removed.
Right? The two senior military figures of the Russian military would be removed from position. And in return, uh, uh,
Wagner would pull all forces from Rostanovdon and other Russian cities at the Occupate and not advance into Moscow to avoid bloodshed.
And that looks like what has happened.
Simply in the Russian front, I think Nikki brought up a good point.
It's kind of interesting Russian state media.
We're seeing Stirlig and other Russian military bloggers and influential leaders on Telegram outside of the state media just kind of.
kind of bewildered by the situation.
We have a lot of criticism as well and in the current situation, the Russian state media.
And I think Mickey, you know, after this, by all means, women, I think that it would be good to have some of these comments.
Because even the Russian state media is kind of saying, well, I think there's confusion as well as what's going on.
Just like everybody here, right?
Why would Wagner do this advance to then halt and get everything he wants, like who's in power or not?
But before we go to that specific debate, what I do want to highlight as well,
is that the only really thing is, because I know this question is going to come up during the space,
is, well, how does this impact the Russian invasion in Ukraine, right, and the current war in Ukraine?
And really, from a military standpoint, not much changed, right?
We didn't see Ukraine quickly mobilize and push forces and launch offenses quickly across the front.
The only real areas we saw was Bakhmut.
And then reportedly a bridge crossing into a river crossing by Ukraine in Hurson, specifically, that now they're in what we call the left bank of the Nipra River.
And interesting, now we're going to get actual videos that confirm it, actually, that now we have Russian, I mean, Ukrainian soldiers on the left bank of the Nibra River.
And for people to understand what the left bank means is the left bank is the...
the side east of the Neapro River, right?
So, but again, this isn't a huge advance.
And I want people to imagine, okay, we have thousands of Ukrainian soldiers crossing over.
No, that is not what is going on.
That is not the numbers we're talking about.
It's small number.
So right now we haven't seen that much go on in the invasion.
And also, the last point I'll end with this one, and I'll let you kind of push on the debate,
is we, a video has posted it's unconfirmed.
I do want to preface this.
It is unconfirmed.
But it is on Russian social media, Ukrainian telegram, and Russian telegram.
And what it reportedly shows is two Chechen fighters decapitating a supposed Wagner fighter as retaliation.
Because if you recall when this occurred, when Progogian launched his offensive or his March of Justice, as he called it, because he didn't call it a coup, he called it a March of Justice.
the leader of Chechnya Kadarov was very adamant of going to confront Progosion and confront Wagner with his Chechen forces, right?
So I think we can get into the debate if this was a coup, was this a mutiny, was this a rebellion, etc.
And then I think the key question is unknown if this video is confirmed.
Again, it just broke.
But I think another important...
It's on the Tremant Telegram. It's not on Russian Telegram. I just want to clear that up.
It's on... Ian, it's on you. It's on Russian social media as well.
Like, I've seen it...
Have you seen it on Russian social media? I've only seen it on your training television channels I follow.
I don't know if it's true, Ian.
Okay. And I'm just going to mute you. I'm just going to mute you because I'm not done and then we can go to the debate.
I understand you can heavily disagree. That's fine. It's on Russian social media as well.
And I am not saying it's real.
Because what I want to end this before we start our debate, importantly, is what, if any, retaliations will occur either between Wagner or Russian, what is the bad blood, etc.
So with that, Sleiman, I'll let you...
you know,
start the debate.
Yeah,
course.
Let me go to Ian.
Ian,
Ian,
you've heard all sources,
perspective on what's happened.
Just to give balance and just to provide the other side.
If there's any kind of things that you feel like all sources missed or just to provide
another perspective,
just give us an overview overview of what happened yesterday for,
from the start of the possible coup and then what happened at the end and what the
ramifications are.
Go ahead,
an overview of the start.
Okay,
so the first thing that happened and there was a build up to this for a couple of months when, uh,
progosion for sort of putting on telegram that was claiming that the munitions, he wasn't
receiving munitions for his forces in Wagner and Bakhmut, that they were bogged down because the
MOD was failing its duty to supply them properly. That is in dispute, right? Both Russian media,
as well as American intelligence dispute this claim. You know, it's possible he was just hoarding
the stuff he was getting and using his existing munitions or stuff he had seized from the Ukrainians when he took their positions, right? They can use NATO weapons. So it's unclear if that was what was happening, but that's very likely the case.
And so yesterday, well, two days ago, he claimed that one of his camps, the Wagner camp, got bombed out, published a video, didn't really show much there.
Again, there is a lot of dispute as to whether this is real from both Russian as well as American and Ukrainian sources.
They, you know, they doubt the veracity of his video, of his claim, but he used that as a pretext to...
do a so-called march of justice on Moscow, essentially a glorified protest, which some, including the Russian media, framed as a coup.
And so, you know, first he took the Southern Military District, which is where the, you know, the HQ to command HQ for the Ukrainian operation is currently ongoing.
He sees that peacefully because there was no resistance.
He was just let in.
I think a lot of Russian troops themselves were very confused as to what was happening.
but he took control of that and then he marched on Vornets and along the way he was attacked allegedly by several helicopters.
He matched down a few of them.
I don't think he lost any forces.
He said that he hasn't lost any forces of his own, so it's quite unlikely that his own units suffered any losses.
Okay.
uh and you know he threatened to march on moscow and then apparently there was a phone call from uh from belarus um
from lukashenko and you know he had been on a phone call with uh with putin and this was uh you know
like eight hours or so after putin gave a speech where he condemned progosia and he condemned wagner as
treasonous and so on and so forth
uh the phone call uh apparently resulted in uh progoshin turning back right he turned back his forces
and he withdrew from uh the southern military district completely cleared out by you know by several
hours like and and and that was that all right and and now apparently his wagner forces have
have been offered contracts to uh sign with the russian military to integrate
dozens of them reportedly have actually refused to go back to Wagner.
In fact, they turned themselves into the police.
This was reported on TAS, which is Russian state media.
They said that, you know, something like maybe 80 soldiers or so,
refused to go back to Wagner, refused to go back to their camps,
and in fact, just turned themselves into the police for surrender, right?
Others obviously went back with Progosion, and they are a,
apparently going to be stationed in Belarus around 100 kilometers away from Kiev, right, at the border of Belarus.
So that's where the bulk of Wagner forces are headed, if they're not there already.
And obviously we hear some stories of retaliation that is, again, that is unconfirmed.
It's surfacing on mostly Ukrainian telegram channels.
I'm not sure if Russian telegram channels are posting it.
They may be talking about it, but it's quite unclear as to whether that video itself,
which allegedly shows two Chessians be hitting someone.
It's not clear that they're Wagner, right?
It's unclear if that video is even new.
It could be old.
Quality is not great.
So that's where we are at so far.
And now there is, you know, I think Budanov is making claims that ZPP has been mined
and that the Russians are going to blow it up because they're desperate and they're losing
the counteroffensive.
Now, I don't think that really adds up because Ukraine itself has made a bunch of statements
as of even today stating that the counteroffensive has mostly failed and they're
blaming NATO for lack of air support.
And Zelensky himself is...
Looking forward to the upcoming summit with NATO, where he expects to get even more support.
He has been promised some support from the likes of Joe Biden, as well as his European counterparts,
the German chancellor, as well as Rishi Sunak.
So they may be pledging to offer more forces, perhaps F-16s,
It's unclear, but to my understanding, Biden may be offering Ukraine, the ATACMS long-range missiles, right, which will enable Ukraine to have a, I wouldn't say advantage, but, you know, something of a way to balance out their lack of long-range munitions compared to the Russians.
So that's where we are at so far.
And I appreciate that. So look, we've got two...
perspectives or what's happened and that's how we do it now just a quick one guys mario is on a flight
so i do believe he's going to join his layer but at the moment just let you know he's not actually
on the space justin i really want to hear what your thoughts are on this perspective about this
attempted coup and just like what do you think it is and what do you think the possible aftermath is
Well, I happen to speak a lot of Slavic languages, but I'm not terribly clued into the Russian part of things.
I can tell you my initial reactions from friends I contacted over in Poland and in Serbia and in Germany.
who are former Slavs there, who are now German citizens,
they will tell you that, you know, it was very,
it mirrored very much what we had here in the States.
It was like, this is maybe an under the radar thing,
and then all the major news media started picking it up.
So it's a very obviously serious issue.
But we've pretty much exhausted a lot of the avenues right now
as to what transpired.
I think there's a lot of stuff still on the film cover and the most
interesting stuff will be what comes next. But there is one avenue. I don't think we covered
very intensely. I think I may have missed it. It went on for 24 hours. But that is, what was the role of
of the CIA in this, and what precisely were their objectives?
Now, there are some evidence from multiple reports that many congressional leaders were actually
briefed this week that there might be something coming down the pipeline like this,
right, which indicates to be that we did have advanced knowledge of this.
So if you've got an appetite for rich conspiracy theories, you might find yourself
speculating that the CIA offered a hand to progosion.
the mastermind of the Q.
And could it be that the CIA really sought to oust Putin and bring a conclusion to the protracted war?
Or you could amp up your conspiracy theory nozzles a little bit more and think that the intelligence agencies intended that they were going to remove them.
Shogu and Karamazov, thereby inflaming the Ukrainian conflict by consolidating power in Putin's hand
rather than extinguishing it. And if the first theory holds true, the CIA emerges like Bay of Pigs
Playbook Bumblers, right? Bungling yet another covert operation. And if the second theory holds
true, then we have a lot of discussion to do.
So I think that's a very interesting topic is what was the CIA's role in this?
I think there was one.
And what was their intent?
And that's interesting because I did see some information out there about this.
But let me go to Mark. Mark, there's been some reports.
And again, I'm just going from memory. I was trying to look at it now.
There were some reports that Wagner Group was going towards nuclear facilities.
There was also some reports about attacks about nuclear facilities in Ukraine.
I mean, first of all, I'd love to hear your thoughts about the credibility of this.
And the second point is, obviously, I know what the ramifications are.
But if you can detail them with a bit more nuanced, that'd be brilliant.
Mark?
Sure. Thanks, Solomon. Two different issues. One is the supposed capture of potential capture of nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons protection and use forces near Voronej, a facility called Voronage 45.
And then the second issue is further updates to the situation at the Russian captured,
Russian-occupied nuclear plant at Zaporizha.
So two separate issues.
I've been trying to gather up as much information as I can about the nuclear weapons issue.
That one's a little bit less familiar to me, and there may be people sending me updates or bringing things to our attention as I talk.
I'm much more familiar with the nuclear power plant issue.
So I guess I'm going to very quickly summarize what's happened over the last 24 hours in the news with Zapparisha nuclear plant and my take on the situation.
For those who have not been paying attention for the last year and several months,
Zaporizia nuclear plant is a six-gigawatt, six-reactor plant,
the largest nuclear plant in Europe that has been offline since September 2022
and was captured and occupied by Russian forces in March, 23th.
several days after the start of the war.
So the nuclear plant issue is that nuclear plants require cooling.
The cooling carries heat away from the core.
That's how you make electricity.
But it also carries heat away from the core, so the core does not melt.
Nuclear plants come in different designs.
The design at Chernobyl, the most famous and destructive nuclear accident ever, were a design without a really strong, thick containment dome or protective shell, you might think of it.
The plant at Zaporizia has very thick, strong protective shells around each of the reactors.
So then the question is, what is the worst that can happen if X, Y, or Z scenario occurs?
What we're hearing now of the last 24 hours, the update is that Ukrainian intelligence chief has claimed that Russia has a complete plan
to blow up the plant, whatever that means, that they have a plan to damage and destroy the ability to provide cooling for the still heat generating reactors, and that this would lead to a meltdown at the reactors.
The number one thing I would say if I only had 20 seconds to talk to worried people is this.
The stakes of any nuclear plant accident at that plant are low and have been falling since September.
For example, the only really bad cases of cancers linked scientifically to Chernobyl in 1986...
had to do with the isotope iodine, iodine 131,
which got into and severely damaged the
thyroid of mostly young people and children.
There is no iodine 131 to speak of left
in any of the spent fuel or reactor cores at this plant,
meaning the only strongly confirmed cancer ever linked to Chernobyl
is not physically possible even in the event of the total destruction and dispersion
of the nuclear materials at Zaporizia nuclear plant.
So I can go into any of those details that people want more,
but the biggest thing is the stakes, as I see them,
are the loss of an incredibly valuable, almost impossible to replace industrial facility for
whoever's going to occupy that in the future, likely Ukraine if they recapture it.
That's the stakes plus any international panic or confusion over any incidences that happen at the plant.
The stakes do not include seriously bad challenges to public health,
even if material is released from the plant.
That's what I would say.
For the nuclear weapons, the main thing I would tell people,
is that nuclear weapons are extremely finicky and complicated.
It is almost impossible to get them to detonate correctly.
There's extremely specific sequences required,
and the U.S. has been working with Russia since the end of the Soviet Union
to help Moscow strictly control the ability of people on the ground next to the bomb
to arm them and blow them up.
Almost every nuclear weapons,
Russian nuclear weapons expert I've seen
pretty much agrees that regardless of who physically controls those objects,
the progojan story is not one that is about nuclear weapons that can go off.
So I'm going to stop there,
and I'm sure we'll come around to specifics on either of the three.
Now, Mark, I think that's a great point.
And I do want to just to all the listeners, there is zero.
Let me refer to zero reporting that Wagner sees a nuclear weapon.
There is a, there is an account that might, that suggested that that might have happened.
But there is absolutely no confirmation this happened.
There is no credible reporting that any nuclear weapons received by Wagner.
And I think that's very important that we need to just tame down speculation about this because
it's a very touchy subject for obvious reasons.
And it can cause a loss care.
But I just really want to preface to all our listeners, everybody here, there is zero reporting
of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of Wagner or being lost control by the Russian state.
That is just not true.
We should also tame down speculation that the destruction of ZPP is going to cause a nuclear fallout that is several times worse than Chernobyl, right?
Because that is what the Ukrainian intelligence is suggesting that this would cause a major catastrophic crisis.
event that would destroy Europe. And this is what they're putting out right now. And they want to scare
people into going to war into triggering Article 5. And this is something that Lindsay Graham has
been pushing Congress to ratify. He wants to pass a resolution stating that if there are any nuclear
disasters in Ukraine or in Russia, it's going to trigger Article 5. That's what he wants to do. And, you know,
You can see the writing on the wall here.
They want it destroyed.
They want this power plant destroyed.
It's in their interest to destroy this power plant in Ukraine's interests so that NATO can join in the fight.
Even though it wouldn't cause, like as our nuclear expert here just said, it wouldn't actually cause a catastrophic reaction like to the event of Chernobyl.
It would be even less than that.
Mark, I did have a question for you.
Again, look.
I'm not saying this happened.
It's just for education as well, for knowledge.
And one of the conversations that did happen yesterday was they were talking about the possibility,
and this is your expertise and hence why it's is relevant to ask you this question.
So I know your knowledge is about specifics about nuclear weapons,
but this is more specifically the procedure.
So in terms of in Russia...
some people were concerned, obviously this didn't happen and it didn't even get close to happening,
but just from a,
just so from a perspective,
just so the listeners can have some kind of informed knowledge about it.
So one concern that people had was the possibility,
however minutia it is,
that,
In the event that Wagner group took went extremely into Moscow somehow
and had taken control of the nuclear weapons,
that there was a possibility that could happen.
Or Putin, in the scenario where he was basically put in a corner,
he would then press the button.
And I know we talked a bit about what that procedure is.
And people said, look, the procedure is so long that it wouldn't be possible.
But if you can just give us more information on that,
and again, some more details, that would be brilliant.
So one of the interesting phrases, if people want to come out of this, no matter what happens, knowing a few more words about the most destructive and powerful technologies and humans have ever created,
PAL's permissive action links are devices and they come with associated usage rules
that physically control the ability of a nuclear weapon to go off as a nuclear weapon
as opposed to just fizzling or destroying itself or not doing anything at all.
The permissive action links connect through to the leadership hierarchy
So the basic issue is militaries have long wanted to, of course, be able to control their own weapons.
Generals want to control their own weapons and forces, and they want to be able to execute war as they see fit and as they're equipped to do so.
Civilians want control over the military.
The question is, with the most powerful weapons, who gets that?
Permissive Action Link technology is to give civilians ultimate control over the nuclear weapons themselves.
Right.
In all of these things, you end up with a fairly elaborate set of procedures.
The details for each part are, of course, subject to some secrecy.
And I know a little bit more about the U.S. system, not because I know the secret parts,
but just because I'm an American who was around the national labs a little bit.
But the big thing here is that in this sequence, the specific details, I'm sorry, I can't give you because I don't know.
Almost anything going wrong, almost any ambiguity at any step, passing information between people, getting electronic codes, matching encryption keys.
All of this leads to the weapons not being usable rather than suddenly being usable unless one step.
Does that make sense?
So we have a system that honestly, it's almost a wonder to me that anyone could actually end up using weapons.
There's a famous story from the Cold War of an officer who truly actually was authorized to use weapons
because he lost a certain level of communication.
It's not clear that that level of authority actually exists anymore for officers in the field.
but certainly not for the land-based units, as far as I know.
So I am quite relaxed about that specific thing.
One thing I did comment, I think it was 5 a.m., 5.30 a.m. Chicago time where I'm based.
One of the only examples we have of leaders with legal authority to use nuclear weapons as they see fit.
with intact change the command, starting to have emotional breakdowns that were worrying subordinates was the case of Nixon, President Nixon, as he was losing his grip on power and was being pressured to resign.
He had staffers who at least afterwards claimed that they had an understanding that if any weird orders came down to not do anything, even if it was not strictly constitutional to ignore, not to do anything until they checked in with various other staffers.
So that was one of the only examples that I can think of that's actually occurred where people had the ability to do something legally and were interrupted by extra legal sensibility and people just not wanting to be part of a suicidal exit or of the end of the world or anything like that.
Now, that doesn't really tell us anything about what would happen in the exhumal.
extreme if there was an unbroken chain of command suddenly about to be handed over from Putin to
somebody else and he wanted to go out with a bang.
At that point though, we're rapidly entering fantasy territory.
One less thing I'll say when we're waxing a little bit poetic here rather than sort of the
strict facts I stick with with the nuclear plant issues.
is that I think of the scene at the end of Gladiator,
when as power is in the balance between an emperor
and his enemy in the fight in the arena,
at that point, fewer and fewer weapons,
fewer and fewer people are available.
I see nuclear as being an example of if there was a question
about who was actually in charge,
various parts of that link all the way from the top
to the missile bases.
would start wondering whether they should do anything at all,
and somebody along that link would wait until they heard who was actually in charge unambiguously to act.
I see fewer and fewer weapons coming into play if there's bigger and bigger questions about whether Putin versus somebody else is in charge,
with nuclear weapons just being the most extreme example.
And so, Ben, I think I think just to go back to because of the speculation is, you know, I've always been a skeptic that Russia is going to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
I'm even a greater skeptic. I think the possibility is almost zero that Putin would launch nuclear weapons against anybody, let alone Russia proper, if Progosion was threatening his hold on power.
Yeah, I agree also, but just for people to get knowledge about how the procedure works, I thought was a good idea.
Let me go to Anna.
Now, one thing I've heard in the aftermath, and if there's anything you want to add about the actual coup, please go ahead as well.
But in terms of the aftermath, one thing I heard was that Progogian is in Belarus now.
And then I saw some people make the argument that he's actually more closer to Kiev.
So, I mean, what's your thought on that?
And the argument is that this was actually a strategic move.
So I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.
And then in addition to that, you know, your overall perspective about what happened over the 24 hours.
Sure, absolutely.
I think it's very important that we actually go step by step at what happened because...
When I heard about this from the beginning, I honestly thought it was either a SIAP or strategic plan by Russian military.
And from what I'm looking at, I think I was correct.
But let's go from what happened.
So Pryoggi did not say that it was a coup.
He never said that.
He never said that he was going against Putin.
The only thing that he said is that he was unhappy with Shai-Go and he wants him removed.
which is we and from back, I believe, in November, they've been fighting, you know, back and forth,
which also kind of was political theater.
So what next, what happened next is that all Russian leaders, I mean, Putin had a meeting,
everybody was there and everybody, every single one announced their support for him
and for special military operation.
So did state media.
So it kind of showed how united Russia is.
And that all the generals, you know, first of all, they came out with videos, which was kind of silly, you know, asking progogs not to do this. But with those videos, they strongly support Putin. They called everybody called Pregozsche trader.
People were saying that there were going to be charges against him because he attacked, you know, Mother Russia, obviously.
But what's interesting is that the whole fiasco was over within 12 hours, right?
Lukashenko got involved, which was very interesting of why Lukashenko would get involved and why would Brigitte and Putin would not resolve this themselves.
Because as we know, they've been very close allies and they've been friends.
pregoggi actually fed Putin and his military for many, many years.
He actually got, I believe, 1.2 billion contract from Putin
and all government contracts because he owned a bunch of restaurants.
And he used to feed Putin.
So a dictator that trusts somebody to feed him probably is a very close friend.
So what happened next is also very interesting because
From Putin going to saying the pregoge is a traitor to saying that nothing is going to happen, that Wagner boys are going back in the field, and that pregoge is going to Belarusia.
And what's interesting is that the way that they're going into Belarusia is that 25,000 Wagner boys are going in Belarusia joining the 30,000 troops that have already been there since last winter.
And there are stationed 100 kilometers away from Kiev.
In my opinion, I think what's going to happen is that it's a negotiation piece for Putin
and he's going to tell Zelensky, listen, it's either we're going to go and we're going to take Kiev.
And obviously, if they take an overthrow of the government, the special military operation is over and Russia won.
Or let's sit down and negotiate.
That's what I think is going to happen.
Obviously, I don't know.
Okay.
Brilliant. Thank you for that. Let me go to Jason and once Jason's give us his perspective, then we'll move on to, you know, some of the more specific instances that happen.
So Jason, first of all, I'd love to hear your thoughts about because we do. I'm not sure if we've got you up in the last 24 hours, but your thoughts about what happened in the last 24 hours and the fallout from it. That'd be brilliant.
Justin.
Hey there.
So thank you.
So the last 5,4 hours has been exciting, and it is hard to predict what happened, but it is clear that Progoshans group did actually say they want a new president.
It's something that they wrote in Telegram.
They said that I think the exact way they used was Dieh, which is grandfather, has made the wrong decision by not supporting them and get away of Shogu.
And so now it is time for a new president.
But that's...
It's neither here nor there.
More importantly, where he is now.
He's not in Belarus.
Progoshan is not in Belarus.
It's not clear where he is.
And the Belarusians, I saw something just earlier today where the Belarusians who were asked said he had not arrived.
So it is not clear where he is.
That being said, I have no clear answers to what this all means, as it seems nobody has clear answers.
But it is very clear that this has been destabilizing for the Putin regime.
And I don't think anyone's really arguing with that. This does not look good.
A leader who has built his entire presidency on the fact that he's able to restore security, that he's able to provide a strict system that cannot be beat.
There's no more criminality like in the 90s in Russia.
That he's the center of it, though, when he's no longer able to provide that, which all polling in Russia has shown since 20 years ago, that is the sole reason that people support him.
And that is the essence, I should say, of why people support Putin, is because he provides security.
And when you're no longer able to provide that, it looks very, very bad.
But it does appear that there is some significant problems in senior leadership.
especially with those who didn't come out and support Putin.
We look at Petraeushev, the head of the National Security Council,
who didn't come out with statements.
Shogu himself didn't say anything.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Lavrov, did not say anything.
Go through the senior leadership of the Russian government.
The silence from them during this was pretty shocking.
But I think more worrisome for Putin is Iran said this is internal affair.
They reached out to, I'm sure I remember who else there was,
a couple of governments who declined to get involved.
And that was shocking because Russia has always counted on these countries coming to their aid.
And when push came to shove, those countries were not willing to do so.
And this is probably something that is going to make the Putin regime much weaker going forward.
Thank you.
And so Jason, I think, I'd like to ask a question to Jason just on the follow-up because I think he brings up an interesting point.
And by the way, Anna, I couldn't hear you.
So I'm just going to drop you quickly and re-invite you so you don't, so that I don't miss your points that you bring on this space.
But, but Jason, it's true, though.
We don't have confirmation of the exact location for Goshen.
And we have not heard from him since the events of the last 24 hours, correct?
Yeah.
That is correct.
And actually, that's pretty shocking.
He did make a statement actually about an hour ago.
I have not listened to it yet.
I just know that the statement did come out.
They've said, it's actually sort of funny.
For the past day, it actually is probably six hours ago,
a statement came out from the Wagner organization saying that he had bad cell phone reception.
And once he had normal or decent signal, who would be back online,
which is really crazy when you're considering the fact that he was only a little while from Moscow.
And now he's, or at least in Rostov,
And he was apparently in transit to Belarus.
There would be no reason to think that, you know, he couldn't communicate if he wished to.
But yeah, he's fallen, he's fallen off the map.
So, I mean, let me go to Matt.
Matt, there's two issues that I, that come out of this attempted possible coup.
And the first one is that you have a scenario where if progosion, if nothing happens to progosion,
And it is that this wasn't a sigh of.
Then this makes Putin look weak and it gives others an opportunity to do the same.
So I'd like to hear what your thoughts on, that A.
And B, from the other perspective, that you had a scenario where Progogian went after him.
This was an apt opportunity for those in his government to turn on him to basically...
essentially trying to assassinate him.
This was the best time to take out the king.
And yet nobody did.
Everybody stayed strong.
So if you can answer both aspects of the opposite questions, that'd be brilliant.
Well, I can try.
If I can start off, as I normally do, looking back at history, being the historian, I am
or legal historian, I think a lot of people were...
perhaps in the West hoping that this was another Pugachev rebellion of the 1770s.
Someone was marching on Moscow and the Tsar was going to fall once again.
However, what I believe happened is more in line with what Anna saw, that it was
more or less reminiscent of what happened to General Alexander Lebed in 1996 it was,
when he tried to go against Jelsen.
He was quietly removed and no one else really, really followed him.
That said, I don't think Progoshin should go on any helicopter rides in the near future,
because that could prove fatal, just like it did with General Lebed.
a few years ago.
So if you look at it from a standpoint of how best to enhance Russia's standing and support Russia's
goals in Ukraine, I think we all here are familiar with Zunzou, the Chinese military strategist
a few thousand years ago. One of his...
I think it was the first chapter or the second chapter.
He said any military operation involves deception.
And this is a brilliant deception, given that no one, I think, really knows why and what for.
Everyone here is speculating.
So even if Russia is competent, they have now appeared to be incompetent.
And even though they have been quite effective in stopping the Ukrainian counteroffensive,
this psycho, or this coup, whatever you call it, makes Russia appear to be
ineffective. So I think the best possible outcome of this thing is if NATO decides to, you know,
double down and continue sending more equipment against Russia because they believe that Russia is
weakening. However, I don't think Russia is weakening because no one really
took advantage of it in the Kremlin. I mean, the people who were obviously with Progocean,
they left Moscow. I think Turkish Airways had a wonderful time selling tickets to anyone
wanting to leave Moscow. And the effect of it is, what's the net result of it?
Putin flushed out supporters. He united Russia.
It was an interesting public opinion measurement of his support, and he seemed to have passed that test.
It's a good excuse to include Wagner in the proper Russian army.
And also he somehow supplied Lukacenka and Belarus with a type of anvil and hammer.
as an instrument to go against Ukraine from the north.
Just a question on that, Matt.
Yes, I'm going to let you carry on.
So don't worry, just a question on that.
No, no, of course.
Because you're right.
It is a possibility he could be basically the hammer used to attack Kiev because Kiev is close by.
What about the other perspective that people argue that, I mean, Pogosian, he did this in Russia.
He went after Putin.
He even previously complained about the weapons and now people are saying he made that up again.
He was attacking.
I mean, shouldn't the Belarusian president be a worry that this guy might come after him as well?
If you answer that and continue on about you, sir.
Yep.
I think, yes, I think all these gentlemen should be worried about getting stabbed in the back.
It's a very dangerous job trying to manage a country when you are so semi-dependent on the dogs of war.
You should always be worrisome of anyone that you pay to do your fighting.
And that's also an age-old wisdom.
So, of course, Lukashenko should be worried.
But I think if it is an agreed-upon strategy,
then Putin and Lukashenko will be in agreement about what and what not
progocean can and cannot do while he's placed in Belarus.
It's...
I mean, it's, yeah, sorry, I kind of lost my thread there, but I don't think it's that dangerous.
But of course, anyone in their position needs to be worried, I would say.
But I guess my question, you know what, I will take this to actually David E.
I want your perspective on this, just to continue on this conversation.
So, David, um,
Are you expecting? Do you expect a statement from progosian? And if he does make a statement, I think there's kind of conflicting views of progoshin and what he's did. Some people, you know, Russian military blockers, a lot of them are praising him. Other than are calling traitor. Russian state media is blasting him. Some of them are a little bit more confused, you know, not blasting him as much.
But from your perspective, David, and kind of the point of view from Russia,
is people expecting progosian to make a statement,
or is this a better situation where better that he says nothing
and he just got to, everything is forgotten?
Thank you.
I'd just like to add to what Matt's has just advised.
And also, Ian, when we were discussing this yesterday, early yesterday,
I did propose the position that...
And I wrote a tweet thread on it and everything I put in that is now proven and justified.
What we have seen is a master's stroke in Saip.
We now see that Perugosian is now domicile in Belarus.
For the last two, three months, the Wagner organization have increased their candidates into the army.
He has enabled Putin, as Master Sedeetheed, to tear out the flotsam that was within the Ministry of Defense.
That actually Perugosian disclosed that yesterday.
Everything that was discussed in this space, in that long space of 24 hours, you know, the hilarious...
delusional mannerisms of nuclear codes and
and Perugosian going into Moscow and taking Putin out.
I did try to speak on it several times, but I was never allowed to.
And the only persons that I saw here that were, you know,
not conforming to this denusional psychotic rants that was going on
about Paragosian taken over Putin, kicking the Kremlin out
and watching everyone run for cover.
We're only three people in here all the day yesterday.
Now we are seeing Perugosian, as I just said, he's domicile in Belarus.
He is now 100 kilometres from Kiev.
The premier, the best army in the world for urban combat,
we have just seen proven in Bakhmud when he destroyed one third of the Ukrainian army
over the last 10 months since August of last year,
is now ready, willing and able to entertain an attack on Kiev.
We're seeing the Ukrainian army in the last couple of weeks with total inability to push back the first grey zone effect or defensive lines on the Russian defence mechanism all up the eastern front.
We've seen a complete destruction of armor on a scale we have never seen before with the fatalities on the Ukrainian side, even worse than the highest levels within the back mud battle.
And now we have, as we just said, Putin is in a position in Russia far more and far better than he was several days ago.
and everyone is now saying that talking about nuclear facilities and everything.
I find this, you know, insulting to anyone's intelligence to be listening to all this.
You just have to look at where we are tonight.
He is in Belarus.
He's 100 kilometers from Kiev.
The Ukrainian army has completely collapsed,
is not able to afford itself any offensive measures on the eastern front.
There's nothing left to them.
And here we are discussing secondary and tertiary stupidity
in relation to what could, should be, Perugosian.
He is where he is tonight.
They are moving.
They've just announced that three of the main battalions of Wagner are now moving.
They're coming off the front line and they're moving.
Where are they moving to?
They're moving to Belarus.
That's where they're moving to.
So let's start from that point and understand what is exactly happening.
We can talk about this for our 24 hours, nuclear codes, bad Putin, this bad, that, bad, the other bad.
Let's look at where it is tonight.
And that is exactly where Perugosian is now.
He's an army of 80,000, the best combat urban force in the world.
Every even independent and American military analysts have said this.
He's armed up to the hilt.
He's now got a new contract with the Ministry of Defense.
He's gotten the 20 billion rubles he was owed.
That's already after being paid.
The man is in position.
And what he's visualising is him sitting behind the desk
where Zelensky is sitting at the moment.
And he's been promising that since he entertained the Backmud Solidar battle
in the summer of last year.
And it looks like because of his perseverance,
because he's the man that cripples the Ukrainian army in Back Mud,
He's now been offered the vessel of doing that in Kiev,
which he has asked for for the last 10 months.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
So on that, I guess, I just want to get the gist of it is that
that progoshin, at least from the Russian side,
will still be an important figure, correct?
Totally, 100%.
If anyone here was in Russia
and just watch school children go to school in the morning,
90% of them have a little Wagner patch on their backpack.
There's Wagner flags in every town, city, village,
in Russia.
They fully support them.
And what you saw,
just ask yourself this one question.
You saw, say,
four or five thousand men,
convoy of four,
five hundred vehicles,
whatever it was,
go within 200 kilometers of,
of Moscow.
They could have been taken out within minutes.
By any one of the 38 airfields there are positioned in central and western Ukraine.
Hundreds of planes are on standby, hundreds of helicopters.
We saw what happens.
People have asked, why did helicopters get shot down?
Shogu.
Shogo and the cartel, let's just call him a cartel that has been built inside the ministry defense since Gorbachev left in the early 1990s.
That's what happened.
And actually, when the last hit, the video we saw where two missiles hit the convoy or just in front of the convoy, that helicopter pilot was advised, stood down and went back to base.
When he found out, it was not, as he was told, you creating an internet.
I just want to, I want to, I'm sorry, because I really, really fascinated because I'm pretty certain yesterday, and I, and if I believe it was you, and if you want to, please correct me.
But I remember yesterday when we were having this 24-hour space, the conversation...
Figu was the master general who defeated the Ukrainian counteroffensive and that he was more of a master strategist.
And then progogian was, you know, this wannabe figure with no military experience.
But now it sounds like you believe that the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense led by Shogu and Jarzomov are actually, you know, as you said, cartel.
It's a cartel.
Has your, do you believe, has your perspective changed in the last 24?
I know, I'm sorry, I'm sorry that you must misheard me.
I never actually stood standing with Shogu.
Shogu and the ministry defense is part of a generational nepotism that has been built with inside the ministry defense for the last 30 years.
You can get many, many stories in relation to that.
There's been books written about it.
Some of those people were there, some of the as young officers, when Brezhnev was in there.
And they have been part of the structure of the Ministry of Defence.
As we know in the West, we've seen us in the Pentagon, CIA, etc., our own Western intelligence agencies that are working sometimes in adversarial positions to the enacting government.
We saw it with Trump and we saw it with others.
So what Perugosian did, he promised he was going to clean the rats out.
And actually, as he was sitting in Rostov and Don, he never left.
He was there the whole time, as we now know, one of your own American ex-marines, Patrick Lancaster,
just briefly caught him on a video.
He just posted a few minutes ago as he was leaving Rostov late yesterday.
That...
Perugosian had threatened, and he actually disclaimed that the rats are leaving the ship in Moscow.
And Matt's just said it.
There were various flights that left and someone that said, oh, they're just summer flights.
There's been several members in the Ministry of Defense that have left and never shall return to Moscow.
And this is where, and I'm just trying to point out that simple fact, the man is now in Belarus.
He went from Rostov-on-on-on-on-the-frost on the eastern front, several hundred kilometers from Kiev.
Now he's sitting 100 kilometers, and I'm going to repeat myself again, with the best urban military army in the world, fully armed and paid up by the Ministry of Defense in the last 48 hours, because that's the only reason they returned back to base and now heading to Belarus.
The war is lost for you.
I want to say, I apologies if I got you wrong.
It was a very long space.
I thought one of you were another speaker,
but I appreciate you directing the record on here.
Yeah.
If you want to, I can post my tweet that went out at 7 a.m. New York time yesterday, and it detailed exactly where we are at the moment.
I appreciate, you know, you're correcting the record on that.
But I do believe it's very interesting of how the reflection of the Ministry of Defense and the progotion, that internal conflict, which I think, you know, is still alive and well.
Suli?
Yeah, let me go to Intel. Intel. Another question I have is looking at the aftermath of what's happened and listening to what David has to say in terms of what his position is. I love to hear your thoughts, what you think about what he's got to say and generally about the aftermath of what's happened.
Yeah, so I think we need to make it clear in terms of the whole Belarus thing.
So Progosion himself is, as David said, domicile in Belarus.
He's been exiled, whatever term we'll want to use.
He's no chilling in Belarus.
What about the rest of the Wackner?
They have not been sent to Belarus.
They have been sent back to the front line, wherever they may be in Ukraine.
The question is, since these guys, as the Russian president, right, Vladimir Putin, came on national television, described these guys as mutineers, traitors to the nation, must be put down.
He was very angry in his speech. He was very clear that these actions will not be tolerated, and that justice must be done.
And for them to just...
then turn around within a couple hours and be like, oh, everything's fine and dandy.
That's a huge problem.
And in terms of whatever, you can't keep Wagner together because they can't be trusted, right?
They just followed the orders of their officers and nearly stormed the Capitol,
shot down seven planes, including a very rare, very expensive ISW platform on top of a couple helicopters.
Right.
That's a lot of experienced pilots that were lost along with their air crew.
On top of the potential morale issues amongst the Russian population and Russian troops,
of these actions over the past few days.
But in terms of the rest of Wagner, like the 25,000, you can't keep them together.
They can't be trusted.
And if you send them into other Russian units, they're not going to be trusted by their new Russian Federation commanders because of what just happened.
Like if you got a couple guys in your unit and you're told, oh, yeah, those guys attempted to storm the capital yesterday.
Would you trust them?
And you can't keep them together either.
So there's going to be some pretty big trust issues.
And it wasn't just Wagner as David, not David E here in the space, but the secret squirrel, David,
pointed out in his post, there were a number of regular Russian army units that had also sided
with Wagner.
You can't keep them together.
You can't have their leaders and personnel running around.
There's going to be some serious issues of what to do with all of the personnel and just giving them a blanket amnesty isn't going to be enough to maintain the trust and unit discipline of wherever you send these troops.
Like this is going to be a huge issue for frontline commanders of what to do with these personnel.
They're not going to be trusted if you break them up and they also can't be trusted to be kept together.
Okay.
So yeah.
So Intel, actually, if I may just jump in one second, I don't think this was brought up
in the space, but I think it's important to highlight because we're starting to get a lot
more from, was this from Western media about kind of the situation, but I'm just going to read
this.
This is from Faituk's news quoting the telegraph from the UK and it says, quote, Russian intelligence
services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Progosion called off his
advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.
Just wanted to provide that.
I think that probably also explains the Russian response.
Probably a lot of this was done in the background
rather than the front to halt progosia.
But that broke about 30 minutes ago.
Sorry, go ahead.
Yes.
Yeah, it just kind of goes into the point that they can't be trusted.
Like the personnel that were involved can't be trusted.
And, you know, threatening the families of the individuals in Wagner
is also going to cause issues with,
the guys that are actually serving because it's like,
hey, you're just throwing to kill my family over this.
And whatever one is like, that's not a way to stir military discipline.
So let me go to Jackson. Jackson yesterday, one of the arguments that you proffered was that the possibility that this could be a sci-up.
Now that progosion, and some people have mentioned it on here already, is in Belarus.
You have a scenario where he is, and I think you posted about this, but I could be wrong, that he's very close to Kiev.
So we'd love to hear your thoughts on this and anything else you want to add.
Yeah, so...
I initially said that this was potentially a sci-op when there was still no photos or videos of the column at the very first few hours of this taking place.
And then from there on out, you know, you can look at my tweets.
I said less than 1% chance or small chance that this is a sci-op.
This is most likely, and I expressed this throughout the majority of the duration of the space I was on in the first night that this took place, that this was probably...
exactly what
uh... progosian said it what what he said it was which was uh... you know an
effort to try and
get rid of godasimov and get rid of shuigu
and this was not a coup or civil war
and i still stand by those statements i still think there's a smaller possibility
this was a sciop but likely this was an effort to get rid
it was it was beef with the m o d command not with putin and
A few points to basically go through that and why this was good for Putin as well.
I mean, I don't know if it necessarily lends credence to a sci-up, but for starters, the disloyal have revealed themselves.
There weren't many.
But, I mean, I think most of it were...
Jackson, I'm going to let you carry on.
Just a quick question.
Who were there?
Who were the ones that are revealed?
Do we know that yet?
Or is there something that's going to come out there?
Yes, yes, I'm going to answer that. So there were, obviously, there were none really within the ministers, governors, anything like that. The disloyal that we saw were the Wagner soldiers that went along with this, even after Putin gave his speech.
And those individuals have been granted immunity, but from what I understand, their contracts are not going to be re-opt with the MOD.
Because the MOD is providing contracts to Wagner soldiers again within the MOD framework, which is going to further consolidate Putin's power at Unites Russia more.
But those that went along with this passed the Putin's speech.
and who continued fighting along with this, you know, with this column,
those individuals granted immunity, but not offered contracts, from what I understand.
In addition to that,
Though it hasn't happened officially yet, this does provide the perfect excuse to replace Shoygu and Gadasimov with hardlin
without it looking like a direct escalation from the Kremlin.
So we haven't seen that yet, but there's been a lot of whispers.
I think within the coming weeks, two, three weeks maybe we'll have a better understanding whether or not that happens.
As of right now, it looks like Shoyugu and Gadasimov are still staying, but we don't really have any confirmation,
and there's been a lot of whispers about that.
Wagner obviously is consolidated under the MOD control contract signed. Progosion previously was refusing to do that. Russia is more united than ever before. Progosion is... Now, this is an interesting one. Progosion, as we've all discussed, Progosion sent to Belarus, but...
From what I've heard from Alexander McCurious did a great video on this.
Apparently, word on the street is that Belarus is just a transitory place for Progosion,
and he'll likely be relocated to Africa where Wagner does a lot of work.
And it provides the Kremlin with the smoke screen for redeploying Wagner and the Chechens, the Kederavites, to elsewhere on the front in this, what Putin has long been planning, a response to this Ukrainian counteroffensive that was failing.
The one thing I'll say, lastly...
That kind of made me question this whole, or the two things that made me question whether or not this was a sci-op.
And again, it's less likely, very much less likely, I think that this was a siop than what Progoshan actually stated.
It was from the very start of March for Justice against the MOD, is that,
Putin knew that this was happening, according to the New York Times, according to the Wall Street Journal.
They both published that Putin knew this was happening at least 48 hours in advance.
I think that's a fair point from the New York Times because he would have seen all of the heavy armored vehicle lining up and seeing that something was going to happen.
I'm sure there was communication from dissidents of progosion within Wagner because there were many that did not partake in this event that probably communicated that to the MOD.
And then the other thing that should be pointed out, again, doesn't mean anything necessarily,
but the negotiation that was announced between...
Progoshen and Lukashenko representing Putin, of course,
took place just one hour after the Ukrainians renewed their counteroffensive push on the front.
So just some interesting points there.
I stand by my points that this was not a coup against Putin or civil war.
I think this was what Progoshin said.
I think it's very unlikely that this was a Saion.
Jackson, another question.
You mentioned that there is a possibility that he, Putin may basically...
Demo, Shoigu and Grasimov.
The question is this, though, if he does that,
Would that not make him look weak?
Because from the perspective of the people,
this would look like he basically countered to the demands of progosion.
Whereas if he keeps them on,
does it not look more like, guess what?
Even your demand about removing them has not come into fruition.
So all I've done is giving you immunity and sent you across to another country.
I don't think it makes him look weak.
And Jackson, actually, before you...
Or Ian, before you guys...
If I can tag to that question someone because that's a great question,
but then...
if let's say they get demoted let's say you agree that they get demoted how do you believe the russian generals and officer corps and the civil service let civil civilians in the russian ministry of defense would respond because i think wouldn't they feel like they are now beholden to progosion if that were to happen uh okay so
yeah i well i mean jackson can answer it okay jackson why don't you just i'll i'll just answer briefly i mean briefly
Yes, the common interpretation now is that this would make Moscow look weak, which I personally think, if you've followed this war in its entirety, you'd know that each and every time that a quote unquote red line has been crossed by Ukraine, you've seen Putin take the, you know, from the eyes of Ukraine, like a weak stance. He hasn't responded aggressively. The most we've seen is the targeting of decision-making centers.
which as far as we know, we can't confirm nor necessarily deny that it's taken out like any of these high-ranking officials like Budenov or
or Zillusioni yet. We have no confirmation one way or the other. So Putin has taken a quote unquote weak line every time one of these major red lines has been crossed by Ukraine.
And the Pentagon has acknowledged that on multiple occasions, even when they're threatening strikes on Crimea.
You know, Putin doesn't really do anything.
Okay.
So for him to say, I want to take the path of looking weak, overlooking escalatory, I think that actually runs directly in line with everything that Putin's done since the very beginning of the red lines that have been crossed.
And secondly, I'll say I think that he countered the idea of looking too weak by doing what he did with progosion saying, hey, look, we're not going to completely grant you immunity like all of those Wagner soldiers.
But we will drop the investigation for now, because they didn't say they're going to grant him immunity.
They just said they're dropping the prosecutor's immunity.
uh... prosecutor general's investigation
so i think you couple those two things together putton actually drew the perfect line in
this if it is some sort of a effort to
consolidate power and again escalate without looking escalatory
yeah and all i want to add on to that is that if he does you know if putton does
get rid of the two generals uh... not generals the uh... ministry of the
minister of defense and uh...
uh...
uh... grassimoff
It's been a long time coming, right?
Like a lot of Russian military bloggers have been complaining about these two for a long time.
They say that they, you know, they just aren't hard enough, right?
They're too soft when it comes to...
supporting their troops on the front lines and too soft against the Ukrainians and this is mostly
on their part right this is their disavent making uh so if he does get rid of them i think that
the command structure remains in in place you know nothing else changes but the the weak links
get removed and and they just replace them with stronger officers i mean this is quite typical of uh
you know, Russian military where, you know, if you're a bad general, they get rid of you.
They oust you, you know, and you get demoted.
Ian, quick question, I'm going to let you carry on as well, so don't worry.
But isn't, I mean, could he not have just removed them generals himself anyway, rather than basically be forced by progoshion?
Like him being forced is the bit that.
makes him look weak, not that he's changing the generals.
But I love to hear your thoughts and continue.
Well, I do think, I mean, it's slightly bad optics to appear to be in line with, I mean,
going along with what Progoshin wants.
But I think, like I said, it's been a long time coming.
So even if, you know, Progoshin did do what he did, if they were removed, I think
no one would have been surprised by it.
Like, people would ask questions, you know, like, okay, what's going on?
But...
I think that, you know, for Progoshin himself to do what he did, I think for him it was the last straw, right?
I don't think it was necessarily like some CIA Sciop that forced him to do what he did.
I think that he did it on his own accord.
I mean, he is his own man.
And keep in mind, this is Rush, but this is not, you know, cynical America where everything is done by the Fed, right?
By the Fed.
this is a country where,
you know,
if people want to do something,
if they want to seize powers,
they want to,
you know,
take control of their own destiny,
they just do it.
They don't need,
you know,
some,
some shadowy hand to puppeteer them
into the position
that they want to be in,
right?
I think he did it on his own accord, but in the end, it still worked out for Putin because,
you know, like I said, he, you know, I've said multiple times that he plays chess, so he,
you know, he outmaneuvered progoshin, right?
He saw that he had, you know, Putin had all the support of the people and of his governors,
off his generals, off the military command.
And, you know, pretty much everybody in politics, including the opposition parties, except
for, like, that one woman who's, like, exiled or something.
he had total support, right? And this, if anything, proves that he has that support. So the next time,
you know, elections roll around, he's not going to get, you know, 70% of vote is going to get 80%,
maybe 90% of the vote, right? Because this is how behind Putin is. Putin is to a lot of Russians,
he's more, and I'm not saying all of them, right? Obviously liberals disagree with Putin on a lot of cases, but in
In this instance, when they saw Progoshan marching against Moscow,
they didn't see him as, you know, marching against Putin.
They didn't see him as necessarily even marching against the MOD.
They saw him marching against the Russian people, right?
So when Putin gave his speech yesterday, I think it was a very powerful speech.
I know some people said it was weak or whatever, you know, I mean, everybody's entitled to their opinion.
But he united Russia.
When he said, you know, when he spoke on the matter, he...
made it seem, and he's right, right, like this was an attack on Russia itself, on Russia's sovereignty, and that, you know, Russia faces a lot of enemies from the outside, you know, whether you want to talk about the West or the woke culture or whatever, Russia faces a lot of existential threats, and progoshin
for him to do what he did was, you know,
was enabling the forces outside
that want to destroy Russia to give them even more power.
I mean, we saw this on social media itself.
We saw this on CNN, on MSNBC.
When people were talking about this,
you had a lot of these anti-Russia commentators,
many of them were Russophobic,
call for the destruction of Russia, right?
You saw people like Paul Massaro cheering it on,
saying there's a civil war in Russia.
Russia's going to be destroyed,
completely obliterate Russia.
You know, I mean, the rhetoric was just out of control.
And, I mean, if you're a Wagner soldier,
you're still a Russian at heart, right?
You're going to,
you're probably going to look at the telegram and you're looking at ukrainian telegram channels and you're
seeing them cheer this thing on you're going to think twice about what you're what it is you're doing
you know which is and and just for russians in general this was an attack on russian sovereignty right so uh
Putin, whatever you think of the guy, he is Russia, right?
He represents Russia.
So going up against him, bad idea.
So from now on, right, if Putin were to do something, like, say, remove those two generals
that are clearly a problem for a lot of the people on the front lines and replace them
with people who are much more adequate, much more capable of carrying out the SMO,
I think, you know, most Russians will be like, yeah, let's just do it, you know?
For them, it's not...
that he's capitulating to
progoshin's wishes or demands,
he's simply doing what needs to be done, right?
Regardless of the optics.
I think Ian has a future as Putin's speechwriter, it seems like.
Well, but also I'll say this too, you know, with the whole situation going on.
Putin is a very pragmatic leader.
His interests are the, you know, via Russian people.
And this whole conflict, this whole, this whole Western propaganda that this was some big thing.
Was there something of substance to this?
Yeah, there was.
But I disagree on the scale of it.
And I think the West was really trying to go and push this whole Civil War narrative.
and aflame it with a bunch of sensationalism from Western propagandists and Ukrainian propagandists as well
to try to a conflict and blood basically with Russians.
It's clear they didn't work.
And if anything, Putin now has the ability to go harder on Ukraine and possibly escalate the situation.
And we're to see what happens with the war in Ukraine.
But Wagner has been pushing for a long time for a more aggressive, more aggressive, more,
going on the attack in Ukraine a bit more and to do more things there.
So we're going to see what happens with that.
And if Ukraine is going to be a much more of a, you know, much more of a bloodbath than what it is right now.
So if I can make, Chief, I do, I do want to provide some news.
So a lot of this is coming from two majors.
The Russian, um,
pro-Russian military blogger telegram.
And apparently the situation in Kersan and the Antonvinsky Bridge is deterring for the Russians.
They're claiming a lot that the Ukrainians are further advancing and seizing a bridgehead on the left bank of the Nepro River.
We're seeing consistently since about a couple of hours ago, more and more Russian military bloggers complaining that Ukraine now has a bridgehead.
on the left bank in the Nebra River and even to the point where we're starting to see the initial cases of Russia asking for airstrike.
Sorry for my kids in the background.
Go ahead, Sleiman.
Yeah, let me go to Michael.
Michael, I know you want to give a different perspective, so just go ahead.
Yeah, just sort of address a bunch of the sort of different comments we've had here so far.
So first of all, we'll talk about, you know, some of the underlying factors in the coup.
Now, effectively in Putin, Silaviki, so that it'd be the people who are right near the top and are quite close to Putin.
There's usually two factions.
There's one that's come from his Petersburg days and one that's more from his Moscow sort of
end the spectrum. You know, obviously, you know, progurgeon comes from the Petersburg guys.
Gerasimov and Shogu are both Moscovites. Well, they're not from Moscow, but they're in that
power broking. Again, getting rid of, you know, Gerasimov won't solve the problem. In fact,
Grasimov was, you know, commanding this war at the very start, and then he was kicked off
for Sotovirikin before he was brought back on in January research.
So, you know, he does have some support from Putin and from Shoyga.
Shogu particularly likes Khrasimov because he's economic with his warfare.
And that's what he did in when he commanded operations in Syria.
You know, it's, yeah, I wouldn't put too much stock in that.
I would put a lot of stock into the person who sort of talked about the Turkish coup in 2016.
That was a really interesting sort of.
coup attempt against Erdogan and afterwards that they were able to find a lot of the traders and go for it.
I don't think this is orchestrated or I don't think this is a sci-up at all.
I think the obvious answer is probably the most correct that these guys aren't complete masterminds.
Again, July 1 was when most of these soldiers had to sign military contracts and join the MOD.
And from that moment onwards, Progogian would lose more and more power.
This was his Hail Mary to sort of try and get back in the good books, to try and be the power broker once again and have his best hand for negotiation.
Because again, what Wagner does inside Ukraine and what Wagner does inside Russia as well is very small compared to what the overall operations are.
Most of their money will come from minerals and money laundering through particularly
the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, as well as bodyguard work through South America and Africa
and security service work, particularly in the Central African Republic, Mali, Cote d'Ivoire,
and Burkina Faso will be starting very soon.
And Libya as well.
This is reeking to me of that effectively...
you know,
Bogosian has been
given the deal of,
look,
you live,
you get to be your guy,
but you are
Wagner,
Africa and your
forces on the
European continent
are now back
with the MOD,
which makes
sense that
everyone gets to
walk away
their lives.
That's probably
the most
simple solution,
and that's
probably, I think, you know, Progogian probably overplayed his hand.
I think it was really interesting that right at the start of this, so, you know, before dawn
it even hits, we had Siravikin and Alexeyev effectively come on television.
Now, those two generals are pretty notable because they're both Petersburg faction generals,
but they're also both, you know, pro-Vagner generals.
And that was a big difference, that it showed pretty early that Prokogian did not have the
upper-end military support.
I also find interesting that he keeps talking about,
oh, I was, came into these cities and everyone was, you know,
hugging me and cheering for me and kids wearing this and that,
but yet no videos arrived of that.
And that's with that many people there, you know,
if they're really fawning over him,
you'd expect more people to have their phones out and recording.
So I'm a bit, you know, I'm hesitant to believe that.
What it feels like is he's played his hand to see what he can get.
He got much further than probably most of us thought he did.
But again, they weren't shooting and they don't,
because they don't want to block their own equipment.
They were pretty short on that for a lot of things.
Then he's been given a deal of, you know, we don't know.
Again, this is all speculation, but I guessing that he'll probably end up, he'll go to Africa and he'll deal with that because he's been quite successful out there.
And he has lots of government-to-government contacts out there.
And that will keep him away from being able to do anything out here.
I'd also stop him going on telegram and sledging the high command, which again, Choygu is...
Not the most brilliant tactician, but he's very good with economics, particularly when he ran the emergency services department.
He was pretty good under that one.
That one was a department that had been rife with corruption before Shueger got in there.
I would have put probably bets that Shoyga was a good success for Putin before this war.
This has really changed his reputation.
Yeah.
A couple of other things I got here was someone saying that the nuclear plants in Zeparisia were a threat.
Most of those reactors have been shut down.
In fact, they put the six reactor in cool down in the beginning of the month when the floods happened.
So yes, there'll be a staff there, some guys from Rosatum, there's some guys from the Ukrainian atomic energy agency up there as well.
Generally, there's diesel electric pumps to keep water going.
So you'd have to empty all the water to make it a problem.
I mean, it's still capable of causing...
radiation leaks, but we're talking very small amounts and not anything that would be fallout wise,
which is probably good considering Russia's down wind from most of this stuff.
I'm trying to think anything else that I came across through here.
Yeah, one third of the Ukraine army dying at Buckmunt was a bit of a,
I was interested to see a source on that.
But yeah, generally, you know, Kadeirov was the other one.
You know, we haven't seen the Chechen forces being particularly active in this one.
And in fact, Kadyerov got called out when he was, you know, saying that he's in Ukraine fighting, but, you know, he was in front of a petrol station that only exists in southern Russia.
And then he got geolocated doing his prayer thing in the back of his palace near Grosny.
Yeah.
you know, this to me looks more like internal squabbling politics, particularly between the
Petersburg and the Moscow factions of the Sileviki. And this is obviously everyone's starting to
look at the 2024 election as well and who they're going to blame for any failures within
Russia. Michael, actually on that, can I ask you a question? Okay, the 24 election, because this is
This is interesting, and I think this is something that we haven't really explored that this much account.
But is there really anybody who's going to seriously challenge Putin in the 2024 elections at this point?
I mean, does Progosion have any aspirations to consolidate its power in political ways?
No. Progosion doesn't have the β he has the widespread support of kind of telegram guys,
but he doesn't have the political backing campaign support to be able to pull any of that off.
So the guys you would be looking for funding on any sort of campaign β
uh that may even challenge puttin would be would be guys sort of like uh putan who's who's a bank
who's a pretty famous banker leesin who's the head of uh nevlupetsk uh de vk he's been pretty active
on supporting sort of anti-putin candidates but you know they all don't like progosin they think
he's a bit of a loud mouth and not a friend
So, you know, it's not about who can actually challenge him.
Effectively, you'll have him still probably win the election, whether it is rigged or not,
but it's about the amount of people that show up.
Because putting your thumb on the scale is one thing, putting your fist on the scale is the other.
So it's making sure that the election campaign, at least there's someone else to blame
if any losses or any failures in Ukraine or the fact that Ukraine has fallen in a couple of days.
The other one I will point out is this master stroke that he's gone off to Belarus to go make a shove to Kiev.
You ever keep forgetting that the road between Minsk and Kiev is mostly the Chernobyl radiation zone.
You know, it's again low radiation. I've been there. It's fantastic, interesting thing to do.
But there's not a lot of road and rail infrastructure.
And that was one of the major problems pushing down from the north in the very early days of this offensive.
The idea that they can just pop that offensive and ready to go without people noticing is not really plausible.
The Belarusian army is not particularly well equipped for offensive actions.
That's why they've largely stayed out of this.
And any Russian units that you would need, so particularly mechanized infantry or even, you know, long-range artillery haven't been moved into place north of Kiev.
What's up there is mostly reserve units.
Can I ask you something?
Would you need a false flag to move Wagner to...
to Belarus at all.
Absolutely not.
And that's the other thing is...
Exactly. It's laughable.
You know, it's...
The simple answer is always usually the right one with Russian politics.
I don't see why he would have gone to this entire hubbub and had the entire world speculating about him and have to give that speech, which was pretty embarrassing of him because he was forced to give a speech rather than him giving it himself.
There are plenty of easier ways to move troops.
And even if you did all this hubbub to distract people, the moment someone gets on a satellite
photo or sees troops moving or people are bragging about it or whatever happens, it's
quite hard to keep that many people secret.
It's out of the bag.
Michael, and I think, and I think an important aspect to this conversation about Belarus
is that one, Russia still has military personnel, regular army personnel in Belarus.
And two, they lost significant amount of helicopters and an IL-22.
But before we, I'd just like to balance it out.
I know Vaughn, you're here.
You know, you actually helped us co-host the space when the craziness happened
in all the situations.
So I'd like your opinion on after, you know, 24 hours and everything we've seen.
You know, has your opinion kind of stay the same?
What is your opinion of what actually happened with Wagner and Putin?
Sure, there were legitimate grievances. Let's be real. I'm not in the Sciop camp, but I'm in the shit isn't what it seems camp, and a lot of people grossly overestimate what was going on camp.
For one, Gerosimo and Shaigu are, they're not liked, but they're not easier to replace either.
And I appreciate that Mark mentioned the Siloviki.
because they never come up in these discussions of internal Russian power dynamics,
and they are crucial because they are the power brokers, them and the Czechist faction.
So thank you for that.
And also Wagner, Pregozian in particular, refused to sign the contracts
that would incorporate Wagner into the structures of the Ministry of Defense.
So both of those, it looks like, are achieved.
Okay.
Pregojin is essentially exiled to Belarus, but he retains his folk hero status, and he gets to stay alive.
Because a lot of people are saying Putin looks weak if he doesn't kill him, but killing him turns him into a martyr and splits the Russian people.
So saying that he looks weak for letting him live, I think is...
not accurate.
I'm trying to phrase myself very nicely here,
so not accurate for that.
I don't,
I maintain,
and you will remember from yesterday,
I maintain that this was very unlikely to be a coup attempt,
and I do believe...
I said that since they're in Moscow Oblast, they'll reach Moscow in two hours in two to three hours,
and we'll see if it's a coup or not based on how they act when they get there.
And that being said, no, it was not a coup attempt.
So my...
Von, can you correct some of the things that have been said here?
Because it makes a lot of the anti-American pro-Russian speakers
make it seem like the Russian people were completely against Wagner.
And this was an attack on Russia and everyone was against it.
And he's seen as some like evil villain.
And from what I've seen from the news is a lot of people actually call them heroes.
And some people didn't like it.
There are people who are split in Russia about Wagner from what I saw.
Can you please clear that up as someone from that area?
Well, I can't speak about this authoratively.
And although my ethnic background is from that area and I have family in that area, I'm not Russian.
And I want to make that clear.
Yeah, I understand that.
But, well, it's...
Russians aren't a hive mind. No ethnic group is a hive mind. No nationality is a hive mind.
Not everyone else on the same page on everything. And we need to really stop pretending otherwise because it's silly.
Like I said, he's, he has quasi-folkero status, pro-gozion anyway.
Wagner is well-liked. But I think they might be conflating things where, yes, they're well-liked, but well-liked enough to support a coup.
Those are two very, very different things.
But, yeah, like, from what I'm just saying there's a difference between resisting them and just letting them go by.
Like, I'm not saying join them.
Do you understand?
I mean, a lot of people voted for Donald Trump, but it doesn't mean they supported January 6th, right?
Right.
But if you said, Ian, that there's more people that would die for Trump than there would die for Biden?
I'd say, yeah, 100%.
Right. But that doesn't, I don't know how many people would be ready to die for Putin in the country or die for Wagner, right? Some people, I think a lot of people would step aside. But there is option, there's option C here.
There's option C here. You'll notice that the people, that the civilians and the Rostov-Wondon looked very unbothered about what was going on. And there was footage of clubgoers in Moscow dancing in the street at like 4.30 in the morning when all this was going on.
that they're not bothered by it, suggests to me that nobody, that they didn't.
And Vaughn, more importantly, they were clapping when they left.
They were saying Wagner, Wagner, Wagner and clapping.
But there were a lot of people protesting them just being there.
I mean, there's a lot of footage of like, perhaps 100 or 200 people confronting the Wagner troops and saying shame on you.
And, you know, they were, yes, that was on the Russian soldiers as well.
I mean, they have been, you know, sacrificing a lot, but at the same time, shame on you for what you're doing, right?
I mean, we support you, we love you guys, but what the fuck are you guys doing, right?
I mean, this is the general perception of the people on the ground here.
The thing is what I'm saying is the clubgoers and the people in, and also in particular is,
They weren't behaving like there's an actual coup happening.
And that struck me as off from a beginning.
I don't think they believed that this was Wagner marching on Moscow like it's 1917 or any of that hyperbole that we heard so much of yesterday.
Obviously, Russia isn't a hive mind.
Obviously, it's not 100% behind Putin, 100% behind Wagner.
And there's a difference between, yes, we like Wagner or yes, and yes, we will support them in a coup.
Second, about willing to die...
for one or the other, again, like, looking at how the civilians were behaving,
it doesn't appear to anybody believe that it would come to that.
So that's a completely moot question.
It doesn't matter because nobody believed it would come for that.
If you're a soldier and you don't follow your orders, that's a different matter entirely.
You, my friend, are getting court-martialed.
Von, just another question.
Another report we heard was...
that there were some helicopters that had been shut down
and allegedly there were some soldiers who died.
I mean, one day later,
have we got any legitimate concrete verification
on how many helicopters were shut down
and how many people actually died?
Her reports and unverifiable information.
And the thing also on put to...
I'm sorry, Chief.
No, that is not true.
We got pictures of the downed helicopters.
We got pictures of the shot down aircraft.
There's a video of the plane getting shot down in the sky.
Right.
falling and then we have pictures of the debris and Russian telegram sources and I would even
go back to task to see if in Russian media there is confirmation that there was casualties and
the Russian Air Force suffered significant loss as a result of that. We have pictures as there. We got it.
I'm sorry. I just have to heavily push back.
They could be from they could be from.
But they could be from different days.
That's what he's saying.
We don't have verification that these are taken from yesterday.
The IL-22 is clear.
We had the video of the IL-22 getting shot down,
and then we had the picture of the IL-22 debris literally like three hours later in a Russian airfield.
And the same with helicopters.
I want to clarify what I said.
What I said is we don't have confirmation yet on how much on what on...
We know shit's been shot down.
There's no denying that.
But how many, how many people died?
That I don't think has been verified.
Correct.
And I will get to that.
It's low 10 to 20 is the reporting going around.
Yeah, if I can clarify, the point was that we don't know how many people died.
That's the whole, that's the point.
You know how we heard reports of a number of a range.
We don't have an exact amount of how many people die.
That's the main.
point I was trying to make, but...
And we don't know the...
We don't know if anywhere he died.
I mean, there could be, but we're just...
We just waiting for verifications.
I'll correct me if I'm wrong.
If I'm wrong about that.
I mean, let me just go to Jackson.
Jackson, I know you want to jump in and make a few comments, so go ahead.
But just in addition to that, one thing we saw yesterday was...
We saw a number of reporting from Russian media.
And so we've always heard this argument that Russian media is biased.
And yet we did hear reports that weren't beneficial to the state to Putin.
And yet they were reported on.
Does that now diminish the argument about the biased or controlled nature of Russian media or these Russian telegram groups?
That's my question to you.
And then add on whatever you want, because I know you wanted to jump in on what a few others have said.
Yeah, first I'll just say to wrap up the conversation about the casualties here.
One interesting point is that Progosion offered to provide some sort of a, you know, a ruble offering, like monetary offering to the families of those that died in the plane.
But there's been no offering to the individuals that died allegedly in the helicopter crashes.
Right.
And one of the helicopter crashes, I mean, I reposted it on my Twitter, Scott from the Calibrated podcast posted it.
One of those helicopters looks like it was, you know, dragged in there and lit on fire.
It was completely, you know, still together.
You saw the marks of something dragging it in.
And if you know anything about helicopter crashes, emergency crashes, especially something that's been shot out of the sky, usually, in fact, never does it look like that.
So that was the other helicopter crashes did look like legitimate crashes, but just an interesting point, something to, you know, reflect on there with the casualty numbers that were still not confirmed from the helicopters.
But as for the media, I mean...
The media is still, I mean, I'd say, especially in a moment like this,
of critical importance for the Kremlin,
the media is going to pretty much check and do whatever the Kremlin wants them to do or say.
And I think it goes actually in line with everything I was saying earlier.
And, um,
what uh what what what clownswitz von clownswitz has said on twitter as well in that yeah i do think
that this was probably exactly what we were all saying from pretty much the start of when we saw
the columns come in is in that it was exactly what progoshin said it was not a coup or civil war attempt this was
strong-arming of Putin to get rid of, uh,
Shoy Gugoslav of other, you know,
unsavory characters from his point of view in the MOD.
And it doesn't mean,
it doesn't mean that Putin is not going to make the most of this scenario.
You know,
he took several hours to respond.
We all saw the video of him being rushed to the Kremlin.
Yeah.
And you were sitting there saying all day yesterday when we were on the space that Putin and Progogian had a meeting three days ago and their best friends and this is all a fake flag operation.
Now you're back talking about it.
Matt, let me just let me just respond to that because I actually said that when there was no video confirmation or photo confirmation of a column even existing for like three hours into the story.
As soon as we saw the columns, I said, well, I think that this is exactly what Provojian likely said it was.
Everyone in this very space was saying, this is a coup, this is a civil war.
FSB is defecting to Wagner.
And there were sections of the FSB defecting and sections of the army defecting.
There were.
That's a proven fact.
Jack, Jack, we have videos from posted from bars, soldiers, from soldiers, from soldiers
no, that's the, that's the second, Wagner, that we had the videos.
That's why a lot of people were pissed off in the bar.
That FSB, you have, you have, okay, well, I've been following this every moment of the day.
And I, so first of all,
Show me photos or videos.
Tag it in the top of the tweet here that there's FSB defecting to Wagner because I've seen none of that.
FSB, I'm not going to claim because I don't have...
Okay, well, that's what I just said.
That's what I just said.
I said that there was ludicrous claims that FSB was defecting to Wagner, and that is still ludicrous.
uh yes there was russian russian soldiers you know average infantry men that were laying down
their arms or you know yeah i haven't seen evidence of the there's not the national
there's none they're making that claim they're making that up yeah some some ukrainian accounts
are tweeting that out just like they were tweeting that you know uh wagner had had seized
control of their nuclear weapons arsenal stockpile blah blah blah in uh
Yes. None of that's true. So they're just still coping and seething over all this nonsense. And it's like at some point we just have to recognize that this is probably probably I mean, we'll still wait and see what happens over the next two, three weeks.
But at some point, we have to come back to reality, recognize it's not what some of us wanted to see happening.
It's just what was actually happening and what was actually happening was likely.
What I was saying, as soon as we saw the columns move in and the claims of things being shot out of the sky...
which was, as soon as we saw that, I came out and said, okay, well, this is clearly a real thing now.
And it is, we saw the tanks, T-72s out in front of Rosal Vondon military headquarters.
And at that point, I was saying, and I guess it was backtracking from my initial statements when I was asking the question, where's the video, where the photos.
but i've not backtracked since we got that and i said i think this is
exactly what uh progosin said from the very start it's it's a march for justice it's not a
coup not a civil war i know some of us in this space might have short-term memory but uh issues but
we we all know exactly what happened and i think putin is making the best out of this scenario
to uh you know whatever he does whether it's troop movements with the chechins or wagner soldiers
that are now under the mody
whether it's further consolidating power by not offering contracts to those soldiers from Wagner that have been granted immunity,
whether it eventually does result in people like Gerasimov or Shoygu being reshuffled for more pro-war figures.
I still stand by my claim. I think it's pretty accurate. It's what Progogin said it was, and Putin's making the most out of the scenario. And I think it's less likely, probably one to five percent chance that this was a sciop. I don't think it was a sciop, really. We got to have more information to even have that conversation. But yeah, I think that the media, to answer your question, Suleiman, the media is going to do still what Putin wanted them to do. And I think based on his speech, they kind of went along with everything he said.
Yeah, and also real quick, but when we say some people want, like a lot of the Western slash Ukraine propagandists, they really want there to be a whole bloody civil war.
They wanted there to be Russian blood.
They really were not only the teeth to get some sort of internal conflict with Russia and have more people die.
Of course they would because it would benefit them.
I mean, that's just obvious.
They would want there to be a civil war inside of Russia.
point being is that they overreacted to information and they were they're looking at something and
sensationalizing things when in reality i thought of it as always being an in arm rebellion much less
because there was no indication that it was going to be a whole coup with putin the interesting part is
you guys i keep trying to say armed rebellion coup i mean the bottom line is progosian and troops
marched down and were 200 miles away kilometers away from moscow
And the reason why it failed was because Progosion had promises from certain people that he thought were going to support him,
that when, after Putin came out and spoke, and after they had their backdoor channels,
he realized that he didn't have the support that he had to continue going.
And he had to take his ass and get out of there while he could.
I'll just, I'll just, I'll just respond to that.
I'll just respond to that because it's like, Lev, I mean,
I just have one brief point here.
You were out here, and I don't want to go in like tit for tat, but you were amongst, you know, a few people on this space that was continuously saying that this was a coup, could very well fold into civil war.
No, he did not. No, he didn't, Jackson.
I never said that in the space.
Lev was one of the few people that were actually right.
Thank you.
Your love is actually agreeing with us.
Right?
Thank you, Joe.
That he wouldn't succeed.
And the only other thing is I said Putin's next move is control the media and look for other
nations for help, not there is actually military, which is also what he did.
So from my point of view, Lev was one of the first people to say, this isn't going to succeed.
It's not going to go anywhere.
He's not going to get support.
And I said he's going to go get other nations, not his own military, to squash this.
I'm sorry. I must just be mistaken here because I don't really understand what, okay, so Lev just like five minutes ago said that the reason why Progoshin stopped was because he didn't get support.
Are you agreeing with me that then what he was trying to get support for was just restructuring of the MOD and not some sort of power change in the Kremlin itself?
Okay, I agree with you that he might have not wanted to take Putin out out, exactly, but when going after the MOD is going after Putin, because these are his people he put into place.
So it's like a word of words where we're trying to say, well, he wanted to take this guy out.
but he didn't want to take this guy out.
I mean, if he would have forcefully went in there and try to take it out the generals,
it would have been basically an attack against Putin.
And that's why, if you remember yesterday, after Putin came out and made a speech,
Wagner came out and responded and said Putin made the wrong mistake.
There's going to be a new president soon.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
So first of all, first of all, those two things.
All sorts of reported that.
So, okay, and Allsores, I was in the space at that moment.
Allsource was immediately contradicted by Ian who said, no, actually that claim that Wagner said there's going to be a new president, or there should be a new president, whatever the quote was, actually came from a Wagner fan account on Telegram.
And I cited that on my Twitter.
I posted that.
So that's a false claim.
But the reason why.
I thought you confirmed, I'm sorry.
I thought it was confirmed.
No, no.
So it wasn't in progoation.
I mean, let me look back.
But.
what I would say is that there is a fundamental difference.
I think people need to understand when we're dealing with Russian telegram, right?
There is, as Jackson said, there's the progogion specifically where he releases a statement.
And then the people under him, there's a specific Russian telegram and, I'm sorry, Wagner Telegram group that was basically saying we're done with Putin.
It's time to overthrow him.
Right.
So, and that Wagner Telegram group, we don't know if that's high-ranking Wagner officials.
We don't know if that's just a random fan account.
That's just simply a Wagner-filated account.
It's one of the most influential Wagner accounts that exist on Telegram.
And you cannot disregard what they say.
out of hand because they because let's not remember during the whole offensive of bachmood right these were the telegram accounts that everybody was sourcing from wagner's point of view of the situation in bachmood and what was going on so again like we have to be very okay every time you deal with telegram you always have to be dubious no matter if it's russia ukraine or myself with cartels it doesn't matter you have to be dubious
You always have to double, triple check, and sometimes it's impossible to confirm.
However, it's still important to utilize it because it also gives you a frame of reference.
And I think the important aspect of this is that Wagner Telegram and what the messages they were putting out was for blood.
And then when Progoshin said he was pulling out of Moscow, it was a clear sense of betrayal.
from these guys and Wagner and these telegram.
They're very influential.
You're talking about tens of hundreds of thousands of people
that have a very clear understanding of the mood of Wagner at that time.
But again, anything you deal with Telegraph,
You can never confirm 100%, but it's important.
Go ahead, Jackson.
I agree with you on that.
And I'll just finalize the conversation around that point by saying, yeah, I saw that
telegram.
Yes, it is a big telegram.
But, I mean, it really, in the grand scheme of things in so far as a coup on Putin,
It doesn't mean anything.
I mean, you could have a random low-ranking Wagner soldier in the heart of Rostovandan say,
oh, I want to get rid of Putin.
Let's get rid of Putin next.
And let's go to Moscow.
And that doesn't mean that progosion or anyone within the rest of the Wagner command agrees with that.
That's just a lone, low-ranking person that might or might not be reprimanded thereafter for saying those things.
But to finalize my points about what Lev said...
um that it love i mean it though the reason why i asked you that question about whether or not you
to clarify whether or not you believe it was a coup or not and you said well you know maybe it
wasn't a technical coup but this was a challenge to putin in his authority i mean that's what i was
exactly say it was a challenge to puttin that i uh to his authority you you took the words out of my mouth
Okay. So, yeah, but those things are very, very different when you're talking about a challenge to someone's decision making and whether or not they're making the right decisions and utilizing the ponds and the resources you have to challenge and try to revert the decisions that are being made by Putin versus saying,
And this is a big thing saying that we want to take him out of power and replace him with progoshin or someone more aligned with progosian's ideals.
And just one brief anecdote here, it's like, you know, if you had a group of Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Bakhmut who said...
I don't want to go and fight and their commanders are saying, no, you must go fight the Russians, attack this Russian position right now.
And that platoon of Ukrainian soldiers says, no, we stand by our remarks.
We're not going to go fight.
That is still considered a challenge to official authority.
That's a challenge to the command.
That is a...
can be called a mutiny, maybe even an armed rebellion if they try to fight it.
But that's, let me just finish here, but that's still not,
that's not a coup against Zelensky.
So I get those things are a little bit different, but when we're talking about a coup,
we have to be very specific.
But now let's refrain that.
You talk about two different things.
A group of soldiers defying their commander's orders.
Now what if a group of Ukrainian soldiers
decided to all of a sudden take tanks and march on to Kiev
and demand Zelenskyi do something that he didn't want to do?
Now it's a different story. So what we're talking about, we're not talking about is that there are certain soldiers that challenged the authority of their commanders. We're talking about a group of soldiers that challenged the orders of their president. And also we have to take into consideration which country we're in and who the president. We know in Russia Putin is all all and he makes all the decisions.
and he does not like to be challenged he doesn't like to be challenged by going on tv talking about
get him this was uh armed personnel taking over the southern control to having other soldiers
flip uh having going all the way close to moscow and i mean this was not just a regular you know
we didn't agree with your orders
I hear you on that, and it is a very different thing.
That's why I said that there are very different things.
But I'll just say that, like, at the end of the day, if, I mean, who knows?
Who knows?
But I think if anyone, especially Putin himself, thought that this was, like, some sort of a legitimate coup, I think when those convoys, which, you know, it was like...
at most maybe two brigades at the spearhead of it.
Like, it's not a, it's a good chunk, but not a ton of people.
I think when that was happening, if he really felt like his central power was under threat,
rather than a disagreement about the MOD structure and the powers that be within it,
I think that Putin would have probably sent aircraft down there,
sacrificed those men, and done what needed to be done,
if he actually thought this was a challenge to his reign as the leader of Russia.
Jackson, what's your perspective on the comment that was made earlier that this has CIA involvement in it?
Well, I mean, we just have no evidence of that, and there's nothing that really leads me to believe that's the case.
I mean...
Progosin was, as we all know, the, like, one of the most, uh,
considered to be one of the most patriotic men in the country.
Everyone really loved him and believes that he's a hero for what he did in Bakhmut and what he's done in Syria and Africa.
And, uh, I don't think, I mean, we have no evidence.
So who knows?
And that's not even really on my radar.
I think it's more likely it was a sci up than a CIA, you know, foreign intelligence backed operation.
But I think, I think that, I think that at, like, when we look at that,
We need to understand that he has principles too, and though he might be a little bit crazy and a little bit like of a loose cannon, I don't think that's what this was.
Just to just say, just, sorry, sorry, guys.
I just had to, I just had to meet everybody because everybody jumped at the same time.
So, so.
Can I just say the CIA thing?
Like, what's the source of CIA?
It's fucking cat turd.
Cat turts want to put that thing out, went viral,
now everybody's meming on it.
It's funny.
It's all bullshit.
The CIA is not involved.
It's totally bullshit.
I mean,
I think it is...
And the other thing I just want to just make clear for all of us to understand
that Progosion is not a hero in Russia.
He is not very well liked.
Wagner Group is liked in Russia because of what they do.
Progosion is considered an oligarch.
He considered somebody that is...
a business person that has intentions for all for himself and he's not very well-liked.
as far as him and as an individual goes.
And also, let's remember this.
And part of the negotiating and why Progogian decided to stop when he did stop
and to try to save his asses because his daughter lives there,
his family lives in Russia, he has businesses in Russia.
And it's very clear to him that he was going to lose everything.
So there's other things in play than just, you know, Progosion.
So he's out for himself and not for the people of Russia.
Yeah.
Okay, so I guess, I guess, I'm...
Jackson, if I do want to get in just for a second,
Dr. Snicker-Tum, because I know you've been waiting here for a long time,
and you haven't had a chance to speak.
I do want to ask you a question, though,
before you give me to your opinion of what you believe happened.
But one of the specific aspects that happened...
When this was breaking, you know, during, I think it was either before or immediately after Putin's speech, is Medeheyev, the former Russian president and prime minister went on, and it was reported on state media, I believe it was RAA, basically called this, you know, a coup.
Like, or it has the inclination of a coup.
I would have to find the exact quote, but he didn't say the word coup and what Progosion was doing is that.
And so, you know, utilizing that, do you think that is a fair assessment?
And the second half for you is, is there a concern within the Russian government,
or more importantly, the Russian country defense, that Wagner now is much more influential,
maybe even supported than the actual Russian armed forces?
Okay. So the first part of the question, whether it's a coup or not, I don't think it's a traditional coup because they did not directly oppose Putin for the most part, but it's a challenge to his authority because Putin's supposed to be the one who makes appointments within the MOD. And they wanted the changes in the MOD. And they were going to march on Moscow to make those changes hurt. I mean, it is a show of force. The other thing that...
should be mentioned is that like the whole time like they more or less like showed that they were more capable and more armed than the regular Russian army inside Russia.
And this is intimidation tactic.
It's meant to show the central government's powerless to some degree.
But the thing is, Progosion overplayed his hand because for the most part, there might be a couple exceptions.
For the most part, all the governors, all the police chiefs, all the most of the military, they all sided with the president.
So at that point, it's like, if it really came to blows, you know, they would not succeed.
So this basically said, like, okay, we made her point.
Let's take a deal.
And that deal is semi-exile for some of them and memo decontracts for others.
So that's the, that's essentially, that's the question of a coup.
And I would actually really caution against people thinking it's all a sigh-off because, look,
four out of the eight aircraft lost were these expensive, rare, and irreplaceable electronic
warfare and communications platforms.
You don't just troll.
And destroy these priceless things, and including the pilots and operators who are also highly trained and you can't easily replace them.
Um, this is, I mean, this is actually the thing that makes, makes me wonder.
I can't prove there was foreign intelligence involvement, but the fact that they knew exactly
what the target and these electronic warfare planes, they do not have offensive weapons.
They're not, they are not capable of shooting at them.
So, like, why would they be going out seeking and destroying these?
So it's like a, it's a really, I mean, I, I.
It's a really odd question.
Like normally these things would not be,
would be far away.
They would not be taken out,
but they knew exactly to hunt them down
within the first few hours of their little march.
Right.
So, Dr. Stoker, did you believe that maybe Wagner had information from inside the Russian MOD that might have given that that type of heads up?
Yes, either it was like some kind of fifth column thing or it was foreign intelligence supported because that's like that the efficiency of which like these assets were destroyed.
I mean, three of these MI8 EW platforms, three in just a matter of hours, like that's insane.
And the communications plane, they were shooting at it when it was making an approach, you know, landing at an airbase.
And the thing is like they knew this thing was not an offensive plane.
It was obviously a communications plane, had no offensive weapons.
Why would they be shooting it down?
I mean, it's like it's because it was flying, it was basically acting as a kind of control station or command station for operations over Ukraine as returning to base.
I mean, there are certain things about this that are meant to basically disrupt.
Russian military cohesion and, you know, sort of operational.
Or maybe, Doc, they just knew how important it was.
And they've been working for years directly with these people.
And they knew exactly where it was going before this even all started.
Right.
Instead of some conspiracy theory that it's.
that it's you know
foreign funded and
blah blah blah I mean these people
worked hand in hands with the people
that run this I don't understand how it's so hard
to understand how they're
I think the
the obvious answer
The really easy answer is that you're giving 19-year-olds anti-aircraft missiles and being told, fire anything, and they've seen the first thing that flies above them, and EW ships will be probably above them first because they're not using offensive stuff against them.
They've seen something fly. They've pointed it. They pulled the trigger, and they really haven't known that firing at.
Which is pretty likely considering most of these, you know, Wagner ops are pretty...
untrained and they're pretty
you know, their kids.
They would have been told they can fire it shit
and they're swel.
No, no.
There's not good enough to put.
That's not the case of all.
I mean, I said this before on the matter of, you know, what the numbers of Wagner are.
And I said like basically from my years of watching this organization, their numbers, core
numbers are about 5,000.
And they have a throughout the course of conflict, they absorb by the prisoners and other
conscripts.
They beat their numbers up by another 10,000.
But those are not people that are really directly attached to the organization because
they basically, they're in, they get their six month contracts and they're out.
but the 5,000 core members, that's fairly consistent.
And those are guys that are fairly well trained.
Many of them have been with the Wagner organization for years.
And they've been like through multiple deployants through Africa, through Syria.
So like there would not be greenhorns at this.
And according to, according to Mark that was up here earlier,
they're the best trained military force in the entire world, which is also a joke.
Yeah, but the issue is this.
So I looked at numbers.
So there are four columns essentially that went into Russia.
Each one was between 200 to 300 vehicles.
And basically you have a mix of pickup trucks, BTRs, some tanks.
Let's say an average are like five.
per vehicle you have like 5,000 guys that's that's about the size of core wagner i do know that
some of the people some of the russians like in that i speak to like r w a podcast like they
basically say they know people who are in these columns like these are people who've been to
the organization for years there's not the these are not the prisoner conscripts there's not
like these are the core wagner guys
So, yeah, they would not be these green horns.
They're people who would have been directly involved in the conspiracy to make a challenge or a coup or however you want to call it.
And after this, because they're participants in the coup, they're actually not going to be offered MOD contracts.
They're going to offer the rest of Wagner MOD contracts.
Someone will take it.
Many will just retire, enjoy their freedom.
But essentially with Pergossian going Belarus, many of these, like the core Wagner guys, a few thousand core Wagner guys, can be split up between the Belarusian Ukrainian border and the Belarusian Polish border.
And this whole deal essentially is a way to sort of diffuse Progosian's influence. I mean, basically the idea that Pergoz is now because he's been.
been the center of attention.
He's such a rock star.
Well, they're going to send them to Belarus
with just as core guys
without all the extra like conspurs or whatever
and who would be absorbed by the MOD.
So there is a way of basically keeping him in exile
but like reducing his power.
And one thing to watch is,
is that when he went into Russia,
he brought in a lot of heavy vehicles.
You saw T-72s, T-80s, T-90s,
pancers,
Stralia vehicles,
like these are serious weapons.
The question is,
will they be allowed to keep a lot of this stuff
as they were in Belarus,
or will they be reverted back to a...
We've reverted back to an infantry organization.
I mean, this is something that also was the difference in Syria.
Like one year, they'd be heavy, another gets to be light.
It depends on the kind of support they give them.
So there is a way that I think the MOD is trying to reduce their power
by perhaps sending them away, taking away some of their toys.
And maybe, and this is something that might be cope on some of my Russian acquaintances,
but they think that there might be a, you know,
poison cup of tea waiting for progos in some point.
Absolutely. Let's understand. Progosion being exiled. It's not like he's exiled to the United States. He's exiled to Belarusia, which is basically Putin's backyard. Lukashenko is dismantled Wagner. Progosion is going to be there for a little bit. And eventually, you will see that something does happen to Progosion. There's no way Putin lets him off the hook.
Let me ask you a question on that. Sorry, you want to jump in.
Let me ask a quick question, then you can jump in.
So, Lev, I mean, we've seen coves before.
We've seen rebellions before.
I mean, Syria is a good example.
The Arab Springs.
I mean, this looked nothing like it.
Like, no, people weren't shooting.
Like, people weren't killing each other.
There was no, basically, there wasn't like a back and forth.
Like, we were told that it was going to happen.
It was going to happen.
It never did.
The final thought was it may happen in Moscow City.
So, I mean...
Salomon, I said from the beginning that the Russian people are not going to shoot each other,
that this is not going to go to bloodshed between themselves because all of these soldiers have families inside it and they're all one side.
Progogian did this because he had assurances from people in the top that they would take aside, that they eventually would.
basically left them out to dry.
They didn't take his side.
They supported Putin.
And he was a one man standing alone on the island.
And that's why he basically took whatever deal was basically left for him to leave.
And you're right.
This is not a typical coup.
Yes.
I left another question because you've alluded to two points.
So the first one is you believe that there's a high possibility that there were people.
within the Russian government, who gave him assurances that they would basically back him.
A, do we know who that is?
And so, because that didn't happen, hence why the coup ended.
Or...
or it could be or in addition to that
is it the case that
you mentioned his family members being in
Russia and there was a report
earlier on which all source read
I forgot what it was from a mainstream media
which said that the family members had been
threatened I mean it could
be that and if it was that like
sure
Surely Progosion would know that would happen.
And again, does I go back to those people from the government saying that they'd protect them?
Like, what was going on there in your thoughts in terms of the dynamic?
I know we're speculating.
We don't know exactly, but it just to understand what could have possibly happened.
But you're 100% right.
I mean, we are speculating, but there's like common sense and good speculation.
And then there's, you know, off the wall speculation.
And I think it's pretty good to assure that Progosion is...
has a lot of businesses in Russia. He knows he's a lot of top-tier guys. He's been involved in a lot of
the politics in Russia, and he knows that he wouldn't have been able to make this move unless
he had assurances. He's not crazy and off the wall where just he decided he's going to grab
some tanks and go shoot up the place. That's why we didn't see any shooting and going on,
because the places where he went, he had the support.
That's why they were able to clear so quickly.
And then when he got up closer to Moscow,
that was one of the reasons yesterday when we were,
the day before yesterday when we were discussing
and we were saying, where's Putin?
I had sources telling me that he's taking his time.
They're trying to reevaluate and figure out
who is going to be trying to jump ship
or not to be able before he comes out
and makes a statement.
And that's exactly what happened because nobody in their right mind understands that they would just be able to go march on Russia without having support of higher up governments.
Like I said, he has family, he has businesses, he has a lot of money tied up over there.
And he understood that the only way he would be able to save it or secure it and protect his family is if he would be able to succeed and have the support of higher ups.
But when they left them out to dry, that's why until this day, I don't think I might be wrong, but I haven't seen any of videos coming out from Progulsion.
And this is not a man that's not, you know, this is a guy that you would go on telegram 10 times 100 or X amount of times a day and make his videos, make his speeches, make his text messages.
But we haven't heard anything from him.
He's shut up and he's gone into hiding, basically.
And Althos, you wanted to jump in with a question?
Yes, I actually...
You know what? He dropped.
I wanted to bring Mickey in here while he connects...
I don't think I can.
You know what, Suleiman, while Mickey gets up,
I'll let you go to the next speaker,
because I had a question for him specifically.
Yeah, cause.
Von, you got your hand up.
I'll love to hear what you've got to say, Mark.
Go ahead, Van.
Yeah, I just want to say that...
I don't know if it's mentioned,
but it seems it's often overlooked,
is that...
Well, the previous speaker mentioned it...
A progosion essentially accepted the amnesty offer in exchange for laying down arms.
He kissed a ring, figuratively speaking, but more important than that,
he kissed a ring as would warn by Lukashenko, who is Putin's vassal.
Putin didn't negotiate with him.
He conceded to the vassal.
And symbolically, that reinforces the...
the hierarchy, a hierarchy, sorry,
because it suggests that Putin and Prygosen are not equals.
You do not deal with Putin, you deal with the underling.
And it's just something I want to point out
and something that should be kept in mind.
No, Bosch, that actually ties in, actually, live, if I mean,
that actually ties in exactly because I know,
when you were in this space, when we kind of started
and we're having a conversation before we really started the space,
you were reading quotes.
from the Russian state media.
Like, this is Russia media, like, influential hosts.
And I would like you now, based on exactly what Vaughn said,
what is Russia state media saying right now?
If you can just repeat those quotes now that we have a large listeners to see,
engage,
you know,
the Russian population's perspective, or at least their media influencers?
Yeah, absolutely. I can share some Russian state media sources, and then there's like private
telegram sources. Like as you know, there's influential people in Russia who have their own
telegrams, and then of course there's Russian state media. So it's interesting, right? I think
what you're seeing now is the, like before you were seeing basically no one saying anything because
they weren't really sure where Putin was going to go or what is going to do and no one had to
wanted to contradict him.
But you're starting to see, you know,
members of the Duma come on Russian state television
calling for the assassination of Yvgeny Progrosian.
And the thing what's interesting as well,
you know,
from someone who grew up in Russia,
Eastern Europe as well,
is...
seeing people former members of the duma you know members of the soviet union
calling basically saying that putin had been humiliated by progojin and saying that
Putin had to bend the need to progogeon this is something that's extremely shocking for me
it's not something you're used to hearing and these are sort of an emerging opinions i would say
um the russian state media is basically calling progoshin a criminal um it's what's also interesting
is i think it was uh chief ian david and i think jackson were saying that you know
You know, Pergoshin, the Wagner group is very popular, and Progoshin is sort of seen as a hero in Russia.
But let's take a step back on why this march to kill Shogu started, right?
Progosin was marching to Moscow, ostensibly to remove Shoygo or kill him.
He threatened to kill him.
And the reason for that is over the last weeks and months, Progoshin is trying to establish himself as the voice of the common soldier in Ukraine, and Russian soldier in Ukraine.
And he said...
and I quote that there had been catastrophic losses on the Russian side and that the war in Ukraine had been a catastrophe.
And that is because of Shogu.
And he had basically said that, you know, that I'm your voice and I'm going to take revenge on behalf of you.
And he also, you have to remember as well what Waggroom was, Ragam Group was in, in, in Central Africa, making hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars for a small group of people in Moscow.
Then, because of how the war was waged, Wadigub had to move into Ukraine away from its money-making business into a, you know, what he has been claiming as a decimating...
military campaign in Bachmout, if you were these oligarchs where you have this golden goose
helping you make money in Africa, you're probably less than pleased that it had to be taken away
and it had suffered extreme losses. These are expensive things to replace. And so I think, you know,
that this is speculation, but maybe that would add credence to the fact that there may be support
for him to go back to Africa and out of this war. So I think it's certainly the case that, you know,
it's very novel, all sorts, I would say, to have,
die in the wool Russian nationalists criticizing Vladimir Putin in public, saying that he had bent the knee saying that he'd been humiliated. This is not. So I think that this puts credence that there's a perception, at least from some parts of Russia. I think bomb was saying that Russia is mixed, of course, is they have people at different opinions.
but that there is at least some parts of Russian society now publicly criticizing Vladimir Putin
for his handling of the conflict and starting to question whether or not he's really in charge of Russia.
This is an incredible, that's incredibly historic for Putin's leadership, right?
None of us would say that.
Putin in his prime, in his pomp, that anyone would dare challenge, you know, sending up a column of tanks to Moscow.
Putin in his pomp meets Kyrgyzhen right outside Rostov with a bunch of tanks and soldiers, kills him, comes back as a hero, and is done.
This case, Putin gave one statement. He's had really hasn't been seen since, and there's not much clarity.
And he hasn't really dealt with it. Progotion is maybe going to Africa. No one really knows. So I think that's also a unique thing to recognize.
Well, a couple of things.
I've heard that there were some contracts that were given to Wagner and Africa after this entire thing went down.
So I think they were after a lot of...
money and i think it was it was political i guess but also there's a monetary side of things too
with contracts for vagner as the r a large corporation and has many other um you know contracts
are doing and projects are working on i will say though um just to make a point pretty clear i think
that we're looking at this and saying that rippoon was humiliated this is kind of the west looking
in you can say that but i don't know that's the statement from a russian member of the duma not myself
Well, the thing is...
Former member of the Duma, my guy?
Yeah, I mean, but he's saying that it's a Western perspective.
I'm just sharing a Russian perspective.
Yeah, a Russian guy who lives in the UK hates Putin,
and you're taking him as meaning like all Russians.
I mean, this guy obviously...
No, I'm not saying he was meaning all Russians.
I'm not taking that.
I'm not taking it.
It's the question, though.
Like, what I'm saying is we can't really gauge a percent that shifted in public perception of Putin over this.
Um, if anything, this has really shown a lot of people in Russia want this, uh, conflict to be, you know, ended, really.
in Ukraine.
That's kind of a larger theme that's been kind of shown with the Russian citizens.
But I'm not going to go and jump to say that Russians are jumping ship or even like a decent or a significant population or questioning Putin's leadership.
I can't even make that claim.
I don't think there's enough to point to as of right now.
But we're looking into this from an outside perspective, you know, is this looking like Putin, you know,
um backtracked or whatever you can decide that yourself but my my my my take right now is that um putin's a pragmatic leader and this this is a resolution that um
would reduce the amount of bloodshed had there been an entire fight at the end of day russia
wants ukraine that's what they want right now and they don't want to have a risk of having
some other thing take their time up and if wagner is an asset they can be used uh in ukraine
they want they want to go and remove that asset he's he's a calculating person and well he might not uh like
vagner ceo of what he did
at the end of day, he's calculating leader
and he has to go and make moves that benefit
of Russia's interest and his idea
in what he believes is a path lowered for Russia.
You think in his prime that he would have reacted differently, Chief?
Do you think if Putin was in his prime, he would have had a different
I don't think so, no, look, just to give people some perspective, you know, this former Duma member talking and making comments on Putin, it's a lot like, you know, let's say you knew nothing about American politics.
And you saw Adam Kinsinger say something like, you know, we're all behind Ukraine and we're all want to support them.
We're 100% in, you know, and you tell people that the entirety of the American public supports this war in Ukraine, right?
Right.
No one said entirety.
I'm just saying it's the equivalent of that, right?
It's the equivalent of that.
Like this guy, his opinions are about as legitimate as Adam Kinzinger, who, by the way, is no longer.
But him being a Russian, his opinions are more legitimate than yours.
It doesn't matter, dude.
Like, it's just one guy's opinion.
He doesn't even support the war in Ukraine.
I mean, this is a way, but certainly a Russian citizen knows more about what's happening in Russia than a non-Russian citizen, right?
We will want, if you're trying to find out what Russian people think you'd ask.
You know, like your opinion is like, you know, it's like saying Adam Kinsger knows more about what, what's happening all of America compared to the, you know, like, say, you know, I agree.
I think, I think it's too far to say all of America.
I think you want to have a poll.
You want to know what Adam Kinger thinks.
You want to want to know what Trump thinks.
I think you want, with our goal is here is to like, yeah.
So let's get some opinions on like, you know, Russian MPs who are actively, you know, still MPs and not not outside of the country.
I could, I could tell you this guy is from.
I'll go to you because I want you to answer this, but I think there is, I think at least one of the common things we were seeing is from Russian state media is an absolute disgust with Pergogian. But go ahead, Lev.
I think you have a combination of both happening.
Absolutely.
It's a disgustful group of Progosion,
and the majority of the Russian people still love Putin and still support Putin.
And at the end of the day, by him resolving this with no bloodshed,
you know, even though it was a slap to his face,
but it was a slap to his face by Progoshin.
and he handled it and i think we're going to see also purges going on in certain uh places in
the government and in the army uh and the days and weeks to come and we will understand more but
at the end of the day putin uh as it is not as weak as the west is trying to i definitely agree
is the west is trying to say and make him look
He's still loved by the people and the people in Russia still want this war in Ukraine.
And I think it was just, you know, an incident that was provoked by an individual that had his own personal needs,
tried to get away with it, didn't happen, and I think it will blow over very soon, very quickly.
Let me go to Mark. Mark, jump in. I know you got something to say.
Yeah, I was just going to comment on the news Mario posted in the nest.
So on the comparison with Chernobyl, I just mentioned that
Chernobyl was always habitable around.
You had to take more precautions in the past, less at the moment.
Chernobyl nuclear plant kept operating as a working nuclear plant for 14 years.
In fact, quite astonishingly, even the reactor three which shared multiple buildings and structures
and equipment with reactor four that famously blew up,
kept operating until year 2000,
making electricity for northern Ukraine
and the eastern European grid.
So I think that we put a lot of emotional energy
into nuclear accidents that was a result of
ideological issues and Cold War nuclear bomb fears that when nuclear accidents did happen, they got
given a mythological scale, not actually factually based on how bad they are. So the explosion from
Chernobyl was quite
dramatic and quite impactful.
Several workers died either immediately or right after from the impact of the explosion itself.
They didn't even have time to die from the radiation because explosion killed them.
Then a number of first responders died in the days, weeks,
And months afterwards, with the last of those batch of victims coming a few years after.
And then finally, there was a cohort of mostly young people who were exposed to high levels of iodine that was freshly generated in the core that blew up.
And several of those deaths were recorded in the years afterwards in total.
the, what you might call the strictly scientific measurement of the death toll of Chernobyl is around 50.
If we want to accredit deaths from the chaos of the dissolution of the Soviet Union,
which may have weakened and fallen apart faster because of the,
disaster and the cost of the cleanup, then we can do that. If we want to talk about the fear
caused and deaths due to hopelessness or alcoholism or displacement, we can do that. But the
physical deaths from the actual molecules of Chernobyl to accident were just a few dozen. So,
yeah.
The fact that we have a nuclear plant at Zaporita without this dangerous iodine in it,
meaning even blowing up the entire facility would not release the iodine
that's linked most strongly to any cancer that came from Chernobyl
should help people breathe a sigh of relief no matter what happens.
To me personally, the stakes are the following.
I don't even think of panic would be sustained.
in the aftermath of a disaster,
because we're just getting sort of tired of nuclear news
if there aren't deaths accompanying it.
So, in my opinion, the stakes of Zaparisia,
beyond the negotiating the back and forth
between media attention about possible bombs placed there
is this.
The facility itself,
would cost between $20 and $40 billion to rebuild from scratch, depending on how deeply it's damaged.
So it's an incredible industrial facility that is extremely valuable to whoever is able to put it back in the operation.
And then also the stakes are the staff members on site, not even really from radiation,
even though.
even if it was treated as a giant dirty bomb or reactors started melting within their
containment, more like the staff put under extreme strain and stress for many, many months.
They've been doing an extraordinary job, but any extra chaos or any battle to recapture the plant
and defense of the plant puts their lives in further danger.
I just wanted to put your perspective on that.
I just want to give a huge shout out, by the way, to everybody here.
If any listener has any questions about anything nuclear, Mark is your guy.
Make sure you follow him.
He is an awesome source on this.
I have dealt with him.
Anybody ask me anything about nuclear?
I just said to Mark's way.
He's the guy.
He's an excellent source.
So please make sure to give him a follow because a lot of the conversation we're having is about nuclear stuff.
And I think he's a great source of information that can provide technical and expertise opinion on that, probably way more than anybody on this panel.
Just want to give you that shout out, Mark, because we deal a lot and I love it.
I appreciate. And I will say that part of that is not that it's all coming from me,
but I know the limits of what I know as a nuclear engineer, not a physicist or a radiation
health physicist, even though I've had to study that like anyone who gets a nuclear engineering degree.
But I know a lot of the world's top experts who have worked on those issues because I was
part of research for many years on these topics, trying to get down on the truth of the numbers and that
situations at the nuclear plants. So if I can't handle it directly from prior research,
I know who can, and I can direct your questions. So DMs are always open, and I try to get
to everybody. Thank you for that, Mark. I'm going to go to Michael. Because I say this every time
I'm in a space with Mark. I studied some of this from a military, from a military strategic
study side. Your expertise is muchly appreciated. Thank you for being you, and thank you for being here.
Thanks for that one.
So guys, if you've got any points you want to make, any questions, any comments,
what do you think is going to happen to Progogion?
Now he's gone to Belarus.
We love to hear comments and thought.
Put it in the comments section of the bottom right inside.
And we are going through those questions.
Let me go to...
Michael, Michael, I mean, I don't believe, I've heard your opinion on this, and I really would like to hear it.
We had the possible coup, maybe not coup, yesterday.
And what are your thoughts about what happened and the aftermath, Michael?
Please, go ahead.
That's you, Trissy.
Yes, that's me.
Hey, how's it going?
My overall thoughts?
Well, I guess...
Although it might seem a bit superficial, my initial thought was, okay, what do we even discuss this as? Is it a coup? Is it a phenomenon? Some other kind, what's the correct terminology? Not because the terminology is the be-all-end-all, but because it actually helps to clarify conceptually what we're thinking about, talking about.
And I initially wasn't clear that coup was necessarily the right term just descriptively because it wasn't clear to me that,
As I could see it, that the objective of the rebels or directions or whatever the term, maybe,
it wasn't clear that their objective was to oust the top leadership of the country.
And if that wasn't the objective, I wasn't positive whether a coup would be the correct word to.
It was a union strike.
Yeah.
But then it turned out that as far as Putin put it yesterday afternoon, there couldn't be a more grave existential threat to the Russian state.
and he called the treasonous betrayal and so forth.
So that heightened the sense of severity that he was describing to it that you would think would be akin to a coup.
And yet, they broke into an agreement where apparently Progosion is going to, quote, exile in Belarus,
which is the same country that Russia just transferred lots of nuclear technology to, we're told.
So it's not, though, as an enemy state, and that he's being harbored Progosh in Belarus at the
against the will of Putin. So I guess my overall take at this point, and I'll try to keep it brief, is that I just don't still yet know exactly what to think. So I'm trying to retain a little bit of a
humility get more information and then try to synthesize something i don't know if anybody relates
to that i think i think the thing was with this you had a lot of information coming in from lots
of different sources at one time like information overload and people should make sense of all this
information and you don't really know when you hear things whether it's really true or not if it's
propaganda if it's just theatrics or if it's real um
But in terms of this entire like this whole situation, it went from at least at least from Western
media talking about this.
It went from this whole civil war talk to being pretty much resolved in terms of what
what I'm looking at in 24-ish hours or so.
I believe that Putin still has a lot of looking to do internally for people who can trust
and who kind of was a bit iffy with siding with Putin over the Wagner CEO.
But I think one of the biggest points to make, again, it's like that I don't really think of it as a coup is more of a monetary, monetary goal for the Wagner CEO, to get more contracts and to have a bit more a wiggle room out of Ukraine to do more things in Africa.
And also to get after the two MOD officials that he's had problems with for months on end.
Yeah.
basically I don't know if it's again this I don't think we have the intention or they believe that it was directed specifically at Putin it was more so those two people that he had a problem with and at the end of day I think this is the solution would avoid a lot of bloodshed from Russians and
Coon is a leader again, he's a calculating leader. He's a leader of his own people. And this seemed like a good way to, I guess this is basically a resolution that allows him not to have any more unnecessary bloodshed of his own people. So you can now focus a bit more on the Ukraine front and other issues that are impacting its own citizens.
Chief, can I ask you a question just on your your comment there about Putin.
Like there's reports in the media at least that Putin knew a couple days ahead of time that something was going to go down.
Why do you think he didn't prepare more so he wouldn't have lost these helicopters or maybe met progoshin in Rostov or done?
Like, why do you think he, it looked like he was caught surprise and why do you think he didn't do more?
And that's it better, look stronger and avoid bloodshed, like not lose all these planes and not have uncertainty.
Like, why do you think he didn't do that?
Well, the thing is, that that's a question.
Like, because he, you know, Western reports are shown independent other places.
CNN was talking about this too.
Apparently Western intelligence knew about this, you know, as well for at least a couple of days in preparation, if not more.
And they believe that Russian intelligence knew about this too.
I don't know the motives again for Putin as to why he, he definitely knew had knowledge about this.
But I don't know as to what he wanted out of this situation, what he got out of it.
Yeah.
I don't know.
So I could add to that just from my sources that I've been reporting on that what I'm saying,
it was his way of trying to weave out the traders or people that weren't loyal to him,
because if he would have just stopped it at his tracks, it would have been just him against progosion.
I think he allowed him to continue.
I don't know if he wanted him to continue that far or at what pace, but...
He let the time go by and they were basically scrambling inside to figure out who was it that was making promises to progosin and who was possibly possible jumping ship.
And that's why I think in the next days and weeks to come we're going to see a lot of changes and perjures going on from the military to even the government officials.
Yeah, if we don't see that, what do you think, what do you think that?
Let's say we do say that, I think then you'd absolutely be right.
But if we don't see that, if you see Shogu's still in office, Progoshion is still alive in like a month, what would you say then?
For a question here, for...
Well, I don't think it was about Shagou, I mean, progosion.
You know, time frame-wise, I don't know if it's a month, a week.
I don't know what, you know, this is a very strategic point in how he's going to reflect on it.
So, I mean, I would be surprised.
I mean, I would be in shock to see that, you know, I would be dumbfounded.
Yeah.
I'll tell you honestly, because from all my sources and from what I know and from just being in that world, I was born there in the Soviet Union.
I mean, I've been working there since 89, 1989. I have lots of close sources. I would just be dumbfounded to see if that wasn't the case.
I think also, right?
My inclination also was that at the end of the day when I said Putin will be looking more
internally before.
She was looking more so for his advisors and people within Russia who were more lukewarm to
the Wagner CEO and who wasn't and kind of restructure as well.
That's.
That's kind of my, you know, interpretation of that.
He will have more of a knowledge of who is backing him and who's not.
And I do agree with Lev.
There probably, there might be some sort of change in leadership, you know, I guess under Putin's orders.
I'm not sure how much we'll know about that, look from outsiders looking in.
But that seems like a very reasonable...
Keith, you bring up a good point, and I'm going to push this onto Intel for this question.
Because, Suli, I remember when we were having this marathon, one of the things you and I were discussing about, like you were pushing to me was...
And that the Russian military, one of the reasons why they were allowing them to go up to Moscow was,
is because that was the easiest defended position, right?
That if fighting was going to occur, you don't want to push your forces forward, you want to consolidate your military in Moscow,
because that's kind of a better area to defend, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
And I think there was kind of a broad agreement with that.
And one of the things was also kind of the counterpoint that was that is that,
you know, it's just that what Wagner demonstrated is that the Russian military inside Russia as Dr.
Sinkerton.
So after Intel, please, doctor, you know, answer this as well, is that that there's just not that many Russian soldiers inside of Russia right now, right?
That they're so committed in Ukraine that they had to consolidate defense into Moscow.
But until, I don't know, it just came to my mind.
What if, and this is something, and it's pure speculation.
This is a question, and I love this debate between you and maybe Dr. Sinkerton, is because everything could be true.
Consolidate defense of Moscow because it's the easiest defend.
You don't stretch your forces.
Those forces are limited, so you're forced to defend on Moscow, which is not good.
But also three, what if the decision was also made that if progosian is so committed to this cause?
Yeah.
right and he's not willing to negotiate he's going to have to fight in moscow the capital of russia
and he's going to have to kill russians right and and to show kind of this barbaric nature
which is actually why progosian pulled out he said i don't want to spill any more blood right
so do you believe into that maybe there was this social psychological impact it's kind of this
utilization of soft power to say to progosian
If you want to achieve what you want, fight us in Moscow and kill Russians and fight in the capital.
So that way the Russians see you as a traitor, like almost like the psychological aspect of undermining progosia.
What do you think, Intel and then, doctor, please, please go after him.
I think it could be.
You know, there are an element of psychological in terms of the imagery, you know,
of if, you know, they fully committed and went into the city, like, that wouldn't look too good from a Wagner thing.
But also we had to, again, look at what was the stated goal of this, like, if they had kept going, right?
The stated goal was to remove Shoygoo and Grasse him off and put somebody else in charge.
And they kept staying repeatedly that if you don't step aside, if you're in our way, we will eliminate you.
In terms of the defense of the city, too, I think, you know, like, why didn't we see more activity to try and stop Wagner further south?
We didn't really see much of a response.
Like, we were talking about the units.
Like, I think Mario was talking about, like, from one of the Ukraine battle map, like, going through, like, hey, here's where the headquarters of various units are.
We didn't see any of them do, like, Sally Fourth and try and stop Wagner because they're already deployed.
The only real resistance that we saw was...
dump trucks full of sand at a couple points and then we saw one of the bridges to the osco river or
Occo river is like a draw bridge system they they pretty much raised the bridge no it's like a side
bridge so they just pretty much moved it so that the river would be inaccessible otherwise we didn't
really see any personnel in terms of military troops we saw police officers and
and Ross Guardia, and the Ross Guardia didn't really have much equipment.
We saw, like, a couple BTRs.
Otherwise, it was just armored pickup vehicles.
So if they had been actually committed, they would not have faced too much resistance.
But I think part of it could be psychological.
But again, Wagner said, as long as you don't stand in our way, we won't hurt you, so I don't really...
In terms of like the bloodshed thing, I don't really buy it.
They also shot down seven aircraft killing at least a dozen pilots and aircrew.
And then we don't really know if there was casualties of...
near rostov there was like early on there was the reports of the battle at the
question on that and then you can carry on of course uh so um in terms of what you said yeah i mean
we don't it's possibly up to seven again we need that needs to be verified and the numbers do as well
but let's go with that let's say it happened and the question is this even then
That is nothing compared to a normal rebellion, a normal coup, where there's a huge amount of bloodshed, there's anarchy, there's chaos.
I mean, why do we have such a distinct situation where, I know that you talk about the helicopters, but other than that, when they were traveling through, there was minimal interaction.
And Lev's argument was, which I think makes a lot of sense that they didn't know war with Ukraine and they don't want to shed internal blood.
What's your thoughts on that?
Well, they value life. I think that's, you know, that's it, right? They value life. This is not an African country where people's lives cost less than $70. You know, you can hire someone to go murder someone else to $70 in any African country. In some Southeast Asian countries, like Philippines, they don't value life there, right? That's why, you know, when you see some sort of coup-like action taking place a terrorist attack or something, you know, it's hundreds dead, right? Sometimes thousands in Africa are
But this is Russia. It's a civilized country. That's why you don't see that.
But Ian, isn't the point, wasn't Kyrgyz's point that, um, that Russian soldiers' lives weren't
valued by the Russian MOD. And that was a whole purpose for his desire to
change.
His actions there if he started flying.
He lies.
Right.
But his whole thing was like, I don't think these elites care about you and you're getting killed and no one's caring.
I will care about you.
As I did care.
It wasn't the whole thing.
Wait, go ahead, doctor.
You had a point.
I want you to expand on that point.
Go ahead.
Because if he really care about people's lives, you wouldn't have hunted down like irreplaceable pilots and assets.
Like those are those again
That they can't you can't chalk this up to just an accident
You know fidgety gunners or whatever
He hunted those fucking EW assets
And the communications plane
so again
Progogian lies so much
about his intentions
and again like Progosion himself
he's not popular
with the public Vodger might be popular
because he have
I don't think he really likes them
People like Wagner
I mean he is a brute
He's a guy who went to jail
choking women out
and like fucking like robbing them on the street
So, like, let's just be real, what kind of person he is.
He is, like, a gangster.
So, again, he doesn't, people, people I've spoken to Russia, like, they, they may like
Wagner, but they don't like the guy at the top.
He just seems too much of the group.
What is that doctor?
But what is that doctor to that point?
If they don't like Wagner, I mean, they don't like Progosian, but they like Wagner, then why did Russia create Wagner and why have they utilized Wagner so much?
Well, the reason why they did this is because, you know, Progogian kind of argued to the MOD is like, hey, I can I can help you fight this war on a cheap.
Like we can avoid doing a mass mobilization.
We're just going to take Wagner,
you know,
my four or five thousand guys,
we're going to beef them up with prisoners.
And then we're going to use them in like these like mass urban battles.
And that's the,
that's the model that he presented to the MOD.
Like,
you know,
hey,
like we don't need to do this.
This mass mobilization that's going to affect the stability, the social stability and normalcy of the nation.
Also, you got to remember that this, Wagner was made before the war in Ukraine.
I mean, Wagner went into countries where normal personnel wouldn't go into.
So you needed a brute and a killer to go into these places because if you take a look at Wagner's history, I mean, these are people that go in there and, I mean, abuse people, steal stuff and do whatever it needs to be done.
They don't play by the rules.
That's what that means.
Right now, right now they're doing this to Russian troops.
Like the things that there are stories out there just like the people just being abused by Wagner.
Like basically they're going like this is why we're going.
Like I recall they stole a couple of T90s after beating up a tank commander, right?
Yeah, yeah.
And then they also raped a guy and they commit suicide.
So, you know, like this is this kind of shit.
Like all these stories are percolating out for like from neighboring units.
A lot of people who like who have actually been on the front with Wagner do not like Wagner.
So this kind of shit is like is coming out.
And by sending the core Wagner to Belarus, like basically you're just basically exiling them and getting them away from like regular Russian troops.
I mean, there's a very simple reason why this solution was formed.
Just like you just got to get them away from the MOD troops.
Would you disagree then with Ian's point about that Wagner values human life?
No, no, no.
I don't think they value human life.
I think that it would just simply disprove Progosa's own point if he would start, you know, killing civilians en masse, right?
Because at first he claimed that the MOD didn't value human life.
And if he does the same, then his lie is revealed, right?
I'm not saying that he actually believed that.
I'm just saying that.
It would just look bad on him.
Right.
Okay, sorry.
I might have jumped the gun on your argument there.
But yeah, the basis, so basically, yeah, like, essentially, like, the confrontation was, like, you know, Putin wanted to want a solution that would extricate this, himself from this, with a minimal loss of life.
And to that, like, point, he's, it is.
It is something that he accomplished, I guess, I think, quite deftly.
I mean, there's some reports that might threaten Wagner people's families behind the scenes,
but at least nobody died ostensibly.
So in this regard, like it has defused the situation.
But I do want to say, too, like there is probably going to be a hit to Putin's own credibility.
And people saying that this is not, like Putin basically, he saved lives.
at the cost of his own credibility,
which may might actually paint a more sympathetic picture of the man,
but I do know from some diplomatic chatter down the grapevine
that this is having an effect.
People are, they do treat Russia less credibly now.
Like this is something that any normal country,
even like an African country would say like,
oh, guys are trying to marshal the capital, you blow them up.
Like, what the hell is wrong with Russia?
Like, why aren't they doing, you know, a normal thing?
Like, it's, like, even the U.S.
overreact.
Can I ask you really quick?
Are you saying that if Putin had acted much more aggressively against the encroaching
troops and even sparked the, you know, break out of a massive civil war, that would
have redounded to his credibility?
Like, wouldn't he want to avoid that up?
I mean, it would probably be catastrophic for Russia.
I think it's to which.
It speaks to the reputation that America has.
Which audience is speaking to?
I mean, it speaks to the imagination America has versus the reputation that Russia has, right?
Russia has this reputation based on American media that they're all a bunch of brutes.
They don't value human life.
They're all monsters.
They're evil motherfuckers who have no values, no sanity, no morals, nothing.
They're not Christians.
They're all apes.
They're all orcs.
That's the reputation Russia has.
And America has this beautiful reputation of being like the land of freedom.
I put a tweet out earlier.
I said, you know, it's funny how in Russia, you know, you had this almost, you know,
this nearly bloodless coup, so-called coup, and the people responsible were pardoned and no one was,
you know, no civilians were killed at all.
Meanwhile, you have America, which had mostly peaceful protests on January 6th, and you have
thousands of people in jail, right, who were jailed.
You had multiple people died, civilians, Ashley Babbitt, naming one, right?
Police officers were injured.
You had all this.
And, you know, like, mostly civilians, though, were injured, right?
A lot of people were unpersoned.
They lost their jobs.
And this is a democracy.
America's supposed to democracy.
Russia is supposedly, you know, authoritarian and evil and full of orcs.
I have a question.
Do you think Biden plays this in his favor?
You think he tries to like...
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
I know you're going to counter that.
I want Dr. to go to your point before you.
Doctor, go ahead because I mean, this idea that...
I'm just telling you, like, this is the way
normal countries handle things.
In 1917, there was a mutiny in the French army
because they're protesting the minister of defense.
They're protesting the ministry of defense.
And yes, they resolve the situation by, guess what?
They executed 554 people.
They've mass executions because of military,
because of breakdown of military discipline.
That's how a normal country deals with this stuff.
But the thing is, again, Putin is he's a humanitarian in some sense.
He took the hit to his own reputation as a strong leader in order to resolve this
the least amount of bloodshed possible.
So that's the thing.
So he sent these guys in a semi-exile.
And that is the problem.
Yeah, I agree with you, Dr.
for the most part,
the problem by doing that,
right?
And the points,
a good point's been brought up about like other countries and how they deal with,
you know,
mutinies is you typically kill them.
Yeah.
And if all of Wagner, these 5,000 guys get dumped in Belarus,
he has Putin's backyard, he can keep an eye on them, they're still together.
The leadership, such as Unkin, who was allegedly the head of the convoy that was heading towards Moscow,
like all the core commanders, nothing's happened to them.
Progogion is still alive as well.
But they don't have the soldiers.
But the soldiers, they don't have the soldiers.
All the loyal supporters.
in Wagner that carried through on their orders,
even if you just dump them in Belarus,
you can't just forget about them.
Like, this is now going to be a ongoing...
This is not over.
This is not over.
This is why some speculate that something will be done to them in Belarus.
I think it's important...
Wait, I think it's important to highlight,
though, we have...
So, one, nobody has heard from Burgosian.
Since this, nobody.
There was a cryptic post on a, on a, on a, on a, on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a on a
telegram channel.
Uh, uh, uh, for Wagner telegram channel that had a image like kind of this AI generated image of
progosion, right?
That's and since then, I mean, that's been nothing so one, we have no idea where progosians at.
Two.
We there we, we have no confirmation that Wagner's in Belarus.
Three, we have really no idea of what has happened to the Russian military that defected to Wagner.
We have no information of what actually happens to the current Wagner fighters.
The assumption is actually, although the agreement was to go to Belarus, what Wagner said after the fact was they were going to go back to Lujansk, which was their base of operations after Bakhmut.
right
and and but since then we have nothing of any clear information and to be
absolutely clear and to understand and to where I'm going to heavily push back on
this idea of this notion I mean uh like the Russian military has a history of absolute
disregard for
for their soldiers.
I'm sorry.
There's no dispute at this point,
even from Russians in Russia soldiers complaining of like not receiving the equipment.
I'm not talking about Russian military.
I'm talking about Russian people.
And also, let's keep this in mind.
We're saying that Belarus did some sort of deal.
What could Belarus offer progosion?
What's the difference of progosion went to Belarus or he went to St. Petersburg?
I mean, Putin could reach him in Belarus just as quickly he could reach him there.
And what could possibly Lukashenko offer progoshin without Putin's authority?
So I think what all sorts of saying is 100% right.
We haven't heard from progoshin.
We don't know exactly where he's at.
We don't know if he's alive or dead or what's going on or where he's going to end up.
And at the end of the day, even if certain people of the Wagner hierarchy are exiled somewhere, they still don't have the troops.
They could be leaders of between themselves, but unless you have the following of your 5,000, 10,000 or 20,000 troops to be able to follow you and do what you need, you're nobody.
Wait, can I just happen real quick?
Just a couple things, right?
So who didn't I'm sure thought about whether or not he should go and completely go all out on that Wagner convoy?
I'm sure across his mind at some point, whether it would have been the 48 plus hours he knew about this or whenever he figured this whole thing out.
He could have done that, but he didn't for specific reason for his own purpose.
I don't know what the purpose is.
My inclination, again, is to figure out who's loyal, who's not loyal to him.
However, we don't really know what's going on in Putin's head.
None of us can really guess that.
He had knowledge about this beforehand.
The second point, though, you know, about this entire thing.
Putin, at the end of the day, he was trying to represent Russian people in this situation.
And what he thought that this whole thing out...
he thought this is the best path forwards.
We can disagree and say other countries handled this mutiny with bloodshed and really went after people and all of that.
And that's fair enough.
Other countries may have handled it differently.
Putin thought in this case, this is the best course of action to let this play out and do whatever.
I'm not going to say that it was the right decision or whatever.
I think less blood is good.
The humanist is a number of...
Also, you got to keep in mind, they're in the middle of a war.
They're in the middle of a war.
I mean, if there was an award going on, maybe he would have reacted differently,
and maybe he would have wiped him out right away.
But right now his country is in the middle of a war to start another confrontation inside your own country,
it would be, I mean, I think stupid.
So all of the people turning on.
Can I ask you a follow of questions?
Like, you're saying that Pergiotin is dead.
Do you...
like quick like quick question left
Lev like you're saying progoshin basically is dead man walking which makes sense to me
if you were him
what are you thinking and what are you going to do like you don't want to die so what do
what do you think he's going to do
I think he's negotiating financially.
I think he's trying to figure out how he could pay his way out of it because he is an oligarch.
He has a lot of assets in Ukraine, I mean in Russia, excuse me, and all over the world.
I think he's trying to figure out how he could land himself a safe harbor and get out as quick as he can wherever he can and stay low.
I don't think we're going to hear from progosa one way or the other, either if he's a dead man or if he goes undercover and just disappears.
I think we're going to...
Wait, wait, if I may to, I do want to ask the question to Vaughn.
So, Vaughn, let's, let's just hypothetical right now.
This is completely hypothetical.
Progogian is in Belarus, let's just say, right?
He's all, he's in Belarus.
Wagner's military formation is intact in Belarus.
They got pardon.
They got what their demands.
They are still an independent structure within, you know, the Russian military, etc.
All the demands that Progosia negotiated come true.
And more importantly, Jarosimov and Shogu get removed from power, right, from their positions of the Ministry of Defense.
What do you think...
The subordinate generals, let's say your Syrokins, for example, Sorokens and other Russian generals, how do you think they're going to take that?
Do you think they will be content within the Russian Ministry of Defense that Progogian basically, because of brute force, managed to fire the two top generals?
Do you believe then that the underlying generals and commanders of the Russian military will be happy of that situation?
I would appreciate if you're going to ask me questions that are not quite this loaded, just as an aside.
This hypothetical...
It's a leading question.
There only has one answer.
That is a hell of a leading question, and I am...
insulted almost that
that hell of a hypothetical all
source that was a really hypothetical
it's not a high
people know that isn't the case
we know they're not
we know they sign that they're signing a contract
they're being reintegrated into MOD's
command structures
Wagner effectively doesn't exist anymore
Except they do and they do it, though, Vaughn.
Like, yeah, go ahead.
As an organized entity in Ukraine, they don't exist.
But if you look at it, so, like, I don't believe that they're all being shipped to Belarus like David earlier was saying.
Well, exactly.
Then this hypothetical isn't hypothetical to an alternate reality.
But when you look at the actual manpower, though, like they still exist.
If they're kept as a single entity, you know, let's say they all sign a contract with the MOD, or at least the ones that didn't partake, right?
Right.
If they all stick together, you as a Russian general, you can't trust them to be together
because you at least have 5,000 of them with the senior leadership.
And there's been no punishment among the scene, the quote, ringleaders, if you will, right?
The senior leadership of Wagner also got off the hook.
You can't keep them together because they just showed the entire world that 5,000 guys can steamroll
unmolested across hundreds of miles of Russian terrain deep in Russia with no serious rebuttal.
And if you split them up in the smaller groups and integrate them with regular Russian military units,
they're not, those Wagner guys aren't going to be trusted either.
Like even if it's just like a couple dudes, you know, thrown into a random regiment,
How do you think they're going to look at their new,
and actually, okay, so they're not going to be focused.
Let me make it less leading.
Let's make it less leading.
Sorry, let's make it less leading.
The reporting comes out that is true that Shogun Jarosimov get removed from their
position, or at least Shogu, right?
The Shogu gets removed.
The only reason why he got removed is because what Progoshan did.
If that's the case, if you're in the, how do you think the Russian MOD will feel?
about that situation.
The Sorokans, for example, the military district commanders.
How would they feel?
They feel Vicky, and I think Lev can answer that better than I can.
Absolutely. First of all, I don't think they get removed, even if he wanted to remove him right now, because it would cause a lot of uncertainty between all the other generals and all the top press.
But the other thing I want to mention is that we're assuming and keep saying that they got the hierarchy of Progosion and his people, that leaders of Wagner got off.
we haven't heard from them.
So we don't know what is going on with them at this moment.
We don't have any videos or reports of them coming up and saying,
oh, we won or we got this done.
You know, now this one's going to get taken off.
They've just basically disappeared off the planet right now.
So as far as what we know is that we have a statement that they've been sent to Belarus.
Right.
That's it. So until they come out and we see them and I could right now just rather assume that they are no longer important and they're no longer have anything to do or say if they're still alive.
Right, guys. I think this is an apt time to begin to wrap up.
So, Von, I want to hear your thoughts.
Can I also ask a follow up on a question I put to doctor earlier before we wrap up?
Go for it, Michael. Yes, you can.
Great, thank you.
Okay, so Dr. Snicka something down there.
Yeah, I wanted to go back to our exchange before on...
whether Putin would have garnered additional credibility had he taken more aggressive violent action against the encroaching forces.
I don't know. Can't you imagine a scenario where Putin presiding over the onset of a cataclysmic internal civil war, meaning the outbreak of large-scale internal warfare?
Couldn't you see that as far more damaging to his credibility?
I mean, he's the head of state of Russia.
He's presiding over Russia's dissent into internal mayhem and destruction.
If we're going to talk about credibility, which is kind of a questionable concept to begin with,
I don't see how that interpretation of that course of events wouldn't be catastrophically worse for, quote,
credibility of the president of the country.
If he preserved the continuation of the country, however...
Rather than its dissent, rather than hasten its descent into civil war, it seems like that would be credibility burnishing.
Now, I obviously think it's true that this whole incident exposed the frailties of the Russian state,
just by virtue of Wagner being able to march and seize the military headquarters that they did and then get to Russia, or Moscow rather unimpeded.
Yeah, clear that that exposed his, like, Putin lacks and kind of all-encompassing control of the state that some might have expected that he wields.
But still, to have chosen option that forestalled literal civil war and shows the option that allows him to continue in power and to maintain the status quo for better or worse.
I don't know, I just don't really get how credibility thing is being doled out here.
Yeah, so here's the thing about Putin.
Okay.
People need to understand that Putin is not a brute.
He's not a tyrant.
He's pragmatic.
And he, more importantly, he's a leader.
He leads the Russian people.
If he allowed Russia to descend in the civil war,
because he had some sort of narcissistic ego and, you know, couldn't be challenged,
That would speak poorly of him.
That would say that he's a terrible leader,
that he's willing to sacrifice his whole country just to save face.
Like, fuck that.
No, he wouldn't do that because he's a pragmatic leader.
He will do what needs to be done to lead the country.
It doesn't matter if it hurts his reputation as a tyrant.
Let me reframe them.
Let me reframe that.
If the country were more stable, if he had more forces at his disposal, he would have disposed of this convoy.
But because he did not, he chose the more peaceable route.
As I said, in World War I, France, a democracy, when they had a military mutiny in 1917, they executed over 500 people.
Mass executions. And that was a democracy and that didn't undermine the war effort because the state at that time was more stable.
And I guess one thing that it has shown is that Russia is perhaps in a more precarious sort of political environment than people realize.
So in this sense, it did objectively diminish Russian international prestige.
Okay. I actually do agree that if it's going to cause a wider war, that is not worth the risk.
But still, because Putin could not end this with the size of action and they got within 200 miles of Moscow, it is not a good look, good or reassuring look for any of your Russia's allies.
That's just objective. I mean, it's not a good or reassuring look.
But I'm not sure how invoking France in 1917 is really at parallel, as though we, like, everyone should aspire to the same standards of France in 1917.
That sounds pretty barbaric, actually, just to just do a max-assification in the military warfare.
Is that, like, a really a credible tactic these days?
Michael, we got to do.
1905, the Patonkin mutiny.
of the Black Sea Fleet, right?
Like that's that event, they quelled it.
You know, the Russians, the Tsars did quell it.
They killed everyone involved.
But the end result, like it was similar to this Wagner.
I don't like calling it a coup.
I think it's more akin to a mutiny.
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, hold on, hold on.
If I may, sorry, sorry, hold on, there you go.
But again, okay, Michael, let me put this question to you.
If this happened in China-in-power anymore, and neither is the French government of 1917.
Wait, Ian, Ian, Ian, if this happened in China under Xi Jinping,
where some Chinese general did this and they stopped it.
Is anybody going to question that Xi Jinping would have just killed everybody?
And because he wants to reassert authority.
I think that's a logical.
I don't know what he would do.
I don't know what he would do.
Can I have no idea if he would do that?
Can I step in?
Hold on.
I don't know that you would do that.
I don't know that if Putin simply had the state capacity, which I agree has
obviously been severely diminished.
But if he did have this state capacity to exert, like, dominant violent control over Wagner,
I'm not sure that he could just assume, speculatively, that he would have done it
because that still, even if he had wielded more power, would have resulted in the outbreak of
preventable internal bloodshed.
And I don't know, these Wagner soldiers, Putin was characterizing as having been heroes
for their sacrifices in Bakmub within just the past couple months.
So you're going to tell me that just if he had like more planes or tanks or something on the periphery of Moscow, he then would have just started willy-nilly bombing the glorious heroes that he had was still continuing to extol for their battlefield heroics.
I don't know. I'm not sure that that's a settled thing.
That would make him look like a monster. We would never do that.
Yeah, I mean, I think he would have destroyed a lot of his own infrastructure.
A joint move for any leader would be to prevent the escalation into devastating internal strife rather than exacerbated.
And it seems like you're calling for, or it seems like if we're following this logic to its fruition, in order to maintain credibility, a leader has to exacerbate.
Yeah.
Also, guys, guys.
They killed like Russian soldiers.
But also keep in mind where Putin would have had to have attack Rastov and the Dan
where all his military support actions are going against Ukraine.
So he would have had to take the chance of a lot of it getting destroyed
and it would have hugely.
I mean, they would have came in from a different point maybe,
but you're talking about they took control of the Rastov and the Don
where the whole military source for Ukraine was.
So, I mean, it would have been catastrophic for him.
Yeah.
Right. I mean, this is a situation.
Like, they basically did not have a good option to end this decisive.
Like, if they bombed them as they crossed the border before they got into Rustov, that was an option.
But the things they wasn't taken, they got into Rustov.
They parked.
They didn't actually take over the Southern Military Command headquarters.
They just parked next to it.
And they kind of stared down the MOD soldiers guarding it.
So this is the kind of the situation.
They basically used them essentially as hostages.
Um, there's a very dirty tactic.
They also snuck in, of course, some reports are snuck in mixing with those civilian traffic.
So they actually, there are, maybe they couldn't have not even taken this option because there's too many civilians around them.
So this is, again.
Yeah.
There were perhaps opportunities to do this before they entered into Russia.
But once the entering the Russia start mixing in the cities,
Putin chose the option that caused the least bloodshed.
But again, this should not be spun as a kind of victory or sciop or whatever because these Wagner guys,
they knew what to target.
They did some crippling damage to the VKS, the Russian Air Force.
I mean, this is not something that can be easily recovered.
They only had maybe a dozen of those EW helicopters.
They lost three in one go.
So it's just I can't like all the people saying it's 40 chess or whatever.
You just got to like be objective about the way that, you know,
this unfolded is like again,
they basically got away with killing Russian soldiers after Putin made this speech.
Like we will bring you to justice or whatever.
And then what is what happens?
They just kind of the announcement is like they just parachute into into Belarus.
And they're just kind of like in just a way and not a concern of the state.
I guarantee you this is this is not over.
There will be something done to them.
We don't know what, though, but we will be at a time of Putin's choosing.
We'll be on his terms, whatever it is.
Yeah, Ian.
So we're going to...
Can I say my piece, if you don't mind, very quickly?
I'm actually going to go to you for closing one.
Awesome.
Look, we're going to close up.
So, Vaughna, you normally give some very good balanced analysis.
So, I mean, say what you've got to say.
And then just sum up what you think the immediate next steps are going to be pertaining to progosion...
uh, um, um, um, um, Grasimov, Shorou, and, uh, Putin.
So, uh, just that, just a quick wrap.
Okay, sure. Um, what I was going to say is, um, a lot of people are talking about how, uh, he would appear,
Putin would appear stronger if he essentially made what happened yesterday into an actual shooting civil war,
where Russian forces are firing each other, and that is honestly ridiculous.
He doesn't look strong waging a civil war in the middle of a war.
And people pushing that, you have to ask yourself what their underlying motivation is because it's not methodological analysis.
That said about what to expect in a short term.
Progoshin, I mean, he's in exile, I don't know.
We'll expect to hear very little from him in the coming days.
Eventually, he'll probably be disappeared, but I'm not committing to that.
In terms of Wagner, they'll be reintegrated into the MOD, take their positions,
and I don't think we're going to see anything big, any big changes in the coming days.
For Gerasimov and Shogu, I'm going to be honest.
I don't like either of them, so I'm biased when it comes to them.
But they may or not be replaced.
Ultimately, it's going to come down to the Siloviki because they're power brokers,
and these two guys are Siloviki.
So it's going to...
Ultimately, Putin doesn't decide who comes and goes, the Siloviki does.
Just like they decided to put him in power 20 years ago.
I know what's going to happen to Pogojan.
I actually have some insight into what's going to happen to Pogozan.
You guys want to hear it?
Yeah, go for it.
Yeah, he's going to become a reality TV star, you know?
Like he'll appear on the voice.
He'll just pop out of a box and then singing a song dressed as a clown.
You know, that's usually what happens.
He'll be Trump's running, mate.
Trump's going to name him as his running me.
Exactly.
Yeah, yeah.
He can be on the show of Giuliani, you know,
like he'll just pop out box and then they'll have him with an American Idol as a judge.
Right, just for the viewers, that's a bit of banter in case people say that.
That's Ian's real analysis.
Right, guys, I appreciate your time.
I appreciate it coming on the spaces and we will see you the same time tomorrow.
Most likely it's going to be on COVID, but let's see.
Thank you very much.
