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THE DAILY ALPHA♻️
Recorded: July 31, 2025 Duration: 0:14:12Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed recent market movements, highlighting Bitcoin's break from a downtrend and Ethereum's outperformance, signaling a potential altcoin season. With institutional interest from BlackRock in Ethereum, the sentiment remains bullish for August, suggesting a promising outlook for crypto investors.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Yo, yo, yo, what's up?
What's up?
Appreciate you guys stopping by the Daily Alpha.
We've been hosting space for three and a half years.
We have everything pinned up from yesterday.
Most of you guys that have reminders set know the deal.
So I won't keep repeating it.
Likes and reposts go a long way.
Allison's thread, liking and reposting, bookmarking, that goes a long way.
We appreciate any support.
It is definitely necessary to support um the people
that show up every day man so any of any of that obviously you guys can come up request up be part
of the show if you like if you just like listen to me and chief uh that's also great too we do uh
recommend uh more participation we we rarely get it so when we get a few people up on stage it
always makes the show funner for me in chief.
So if you guys want to come up, get your talking on, get your sea legs, get a little bit more content creator out of you,
you're more than welcome to come up here and participate in the show.
So yesterday, man, man, man, man, man, I'm not blaming it on you guys.
It wasn't you. I don't even think it, man, man. I'm not blaming it on you guys. It wasn't you.
I don't even think it was retail, dude.
I just think it was centralized exchanges
and just trying to flush out.
I mean, we had the Fed rate deciding
that we were going to have rate cuts for over a month.
It was 98% basically priced in.
And then when Mr. Bald, or Mr. Not Baldhead,
but Mr. Whitehair powell goes on stage
and he says that he isn't going to cut rates then we want to dump our tokens um definitely don't
think that was retail i think that it was centralized exchanges using that as an excuse
to sell their tokens to flush out liquidity so we can go a lot higher. Then we went down to 1,000,
1,000, 15, six, was it 996? I think that's what it was. So we went all the way down to 115.
And then as soon as we hit that, we just skyrocketed back up. I think last night we
actually broke the downtrend. We needed to get over8776 and i think we hit 118824
so we actually if you look at like the monthly downtrend of just creating lower highs lower
highs lower highs we actually broke a higher high which kind of makes me bullish you're looking at
the price right now and you're like oh it's over that was a fake out well that we're probably
gonna go a little bit lower and then we'll be a fake out and then we'll go back higher.
And a lot of liquidity sitting right above 120, bro. I mean, we still haven't gone up and grabbed
that. Right. We had that basically cascade fall off, even though we were right there at that 118,
we've yet to push up for that. Right. I mean, ideally, if we go up grab that then reset it'll give us about 25 to 30
days until we set up the new next flag up you know so in a sense there's a lot of liquid to go up top
it would make sense to grab it and then break down right because i mean we're getting close
to it also lining up with the 50-day moving average right right, and the CME gap, so. Yeah, and it's just, just showing you guys the chart, we made a higher high, and so we broke the downtrend.
And yes, we're going back down to, you know, $1,800, $300, but we broke that downtrend on both ETH and Bitcoin.
So that's looking, and actually ETH is actually outperforming Bitcoin at the moment.
And guys, like, it's confusing, right?? Like I go to the Merrimack River. We don't have beaches.
And so we have like float trips, right? We all put our life vests on and some of us are heavier
than others, you know? And these rafts are pretty big. And just imagine how do you get a fat person
back into the raft? You push them underneath the water, and then they bounce back up,
and then they have enough force to pull them into the raft.
And that's kind of what we're doing here with the chart.
You have to go lower, push it down like a beach ball underwater,
and then it pops up higher.
And that's what you just saw yesterday,
is that we pushed the fat person down underwater with their life vest,
and then it came up with more force and actually broke down.
That's like the craziest example.
How many fat people you've been pushing?
Oh, my God, dude.
Dude, like some of these fat boys, man, like 300 pounds, dude.
And they're like.
And they pop up like balls in the water, bro.
That's crazy.
Well, that's kind of like instead of like trying to pull them when you're in the raft with their life vest,
you get a little more momentum when you push them under with their life vest and they pop back up.
So you have that like extra momentum. And then you have like two or three people pull up their life
vest and they can get in the vest or get into the raft so that's a little hint and not getting fat
people in the raft but it's also what you saw in the charts yesterday we pushed them down to 115
and then like a beach ball it sprung back up and then we broke the higher high which was kind of
like the water level or the raft so that's what's's going on on the market. I do have some just like macro stuff, obviously we can bring up and then we'll throw it
over to the boys that came up. Appreciate you guys stopping by. So last time, this is actually
great that Arf's up here. Last time I brought this up was around the same time. Remember about two or
three weeks ago, I asked ARF and you, we're going to get some volatility here relatively soon. You
guys think we're going up or down? We're going up or down. You're like, we're fucking going up,
send that shit. And we went up. And the reason why I asked you that is because the Bollinger
bands get super tight and it basically predicts volatility. Volatility could be up or volatility be going down,
but BTC's daily bulger bands are the tightest since August of 2023.
So I don't know.
What do you guys think?
Kind of ask you again, and maybe we'll be proven right
or maybe we've proven wrong.
With these bulger bands, volatility is about to happen
in the next 12 to three days.
What do you think, Chief?
Are we going up or are we going down, my guy?
Where are we going, buddy?
Last time I asked you this, you set up, and it was probably right after the show.
We started skyrocketing from, I think it was 109 up to 115 to 119.
And we're getting these daily Bollinger Bands are the tightest.
They have been in over two years.
And we're going to get some volatility here after the show or by Friday.
So I'm just going to put your balls to the wall.
Put your balls on the table.
Make a prediction.
Do you think we're going lower or are we going higher in the next few days?
I think we're still going to go up and grab that liquid, right?
Like I said, it makes sense to go up, tap grab that and then fully break down uh into august for the next 15 to 20
days right set us up for going right after august to potentially start rallying and then you know
you start getting more info and then i mean look at bro. I mean, not trying to be vulgar, but it looks like a wiener.
And it's like half erect.
So I'm pretty sure it's just going to, you know what I'm saying, just go up.
So good math.
Good chart drawings.
What do you think, Arv?
You said higher.
I think you're a bull, bro.
So I'm thinking you're going to say higher.
Like, I'm a bull.
Like, I think we get one of them, you know, fake outs at some point, which is fine. And then you long it. That's about it. I'm a bull. Like, I'm a bull. Like, I think we get one of them, you know, fake outs at some point, which is fine.
And then you long it.
That's about it.
I'm just bullish up, bro.
Like, I think people are probably waiting for, like, September.
They're assuming we're going to get cuts and stuff.
So a lot of people are going to be trying to front run that.
So I don't know.
I think it might just keep going up that part with some fake outs to possibly long.
Yesterday was a very good opportunity to long.
You know, I'm just looking for that type of shit i'm not ever gonna short maybe at the maybe when we're
going into a bear but i don't know dude i'm looking for these longs if it does dip i think
it just recovers and goes higher like that's kind of where i'm at right now yeah and what about you
you're up here bro do you think we're going short are we going long in the next i'd say it probably
happens in the next by friday by the weekend yeah yeah by the weekend it's probably
gonna happen what are we thinking up or down you can be contrarian you don't have to be pressure
bro don't peer pressure here you could stay short yeah no i think um like i don't know if we have
enough momentum to keep it going up like to the levels we want to see it i think it would be healthy to see a
correction before like you know 140 150 bitcoin but honestly i i've been i've been a little bit
skeptical on like leverage trading for that reason um like like uh lord arf said it was a good
opportunity to to long yesterday at like 170 um i just wasn't at the computer at the time but i
definitely think if you could find like any longs to go at like the um I just wasn't at the computer at the time but I definitely think if
you could find like any longs to go at like the key resistance level that would be a good bet
but I'm not like you know fully 100x leveraging right now I'm kind of trying to be conservative
yeah that's kind of where I'm at yeah I feel you and then obviously today's the last day of the
month and you have like expirations expiring. So there will be a little max paying to keeping the price a little stagnant. But just a few charts that pinned up top. I actually think
we go up, but I actually think Ethereum is going to be the leader. We have already saw that
yesterday where Ethereum broke its higher high before Bitcoin. And I actually think we're
entering kind of an altcoin season and you're seeing ETH outperform Bitcoin for the first time.
So the ETH BTC three week MACD Golden cross has happened. This is the first golden cross in almost six years. Ethereum is
about to teleport against BTC in the coming months. We have that one and we have this is the big
moment for alt. Others just ticked over the golden cross after pushing initial leg and
consolidation. Nicely here. I'm expecting others to make a big move within the next week.
And then just looking at the charts for ETH monthly charts this month,
we were at a 50% return on ETH.
On having years 2021,
we're up 35% and then, we're up 35%.
And then 2017, we're up 92%.
So we didn't have that great of a July in 2021.
We're only about 11% that month.
And then we went to 35 in 2017, which was the year after the halving.
We were minus 27.
Then we went up 92.
So this is the first time we've actually printed to 50%.
Typically, we go higher than the July.
And so August, if you're going by this, should be higher than 50% for Ethereum.
And we've seen that kind of inflows and outflows recently.
And BlackRock and them launching their spot ETFs and actually converting a lot of or buying
more ETH than actually Bitcoin.
So I think we're actually, if we are going to see price go up, I don't think BTC is going to be the
leader anymore. And I think we kind of saw that yesterday with Ethereum kind of breaking the
higher high before Bitcoin. So I do think we might be entering the altcoin season. And I kind of
referred to this yesterday where NFTs on the 25th, when we try to break,
you know, 3,900, they went ballistic. I went through five or six historic NFTs. They all
had the same charts. And then NFTs in general are starting to heat up. I mean, we saw,
well, we saw Chill House yesterday. We saw Killer Acid. It just kind of feels like NFT season is
trying to peak its head and you're starting to
see the beginning phases of it and i think a lot of people are positioning themselves
knowing that eth is about to take off and they want to be in these collections now before we
actually break all-time highs so we didn't even break all-time high and these charts are looking
really nice so just imagine when we break that 4200 and everybody on the timeline the news is
talking eth broke it.
ETH actually finally broke all-time high for the first time in four years.
Everybody's going to be FOMO-ing to NFTs in general
because that's kind of the beta play for ETH in general.
So I don't know, man.
It's kind of looking bullish, man.
And I think August is going to be up only, in my opinion.
It just kind of feels like it, right?
And so I just wanted to get your guys' opinion.
We'll see in a few weeks.
If we go down, then you guys can come up here and tell me I was wrong.
But we also had the S&P 500.
Surges are back above $6,400 in all-time high territory.
There's a lot of tech stocks in there, kind of leading to Ethereum also be considered a tech stock.
Then just in general, we have a lot of these crypto startups,
I guess not crypto startups, but stock markets converting into Bitcoin. And we just have a lot
of influence now in the stock market with these stocks being used as proxy for these cryptos.
So that's a little bit of what I got michael saylor basically came out and says hints on x today we'll report will be the biggest important event in strategic history
so maybe we will get some big bitcoin news from him Thank you.
