THE DAILY ALPHA♻️

Recorded: Sept. 5, 2025 Duration: 1:05:21
Space Recording

Full Transcription

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appreciate you guys
obviously it's the last show of the week
TGI Friday
it's Friday
we have Allison's pinned thread up top
it was a good show in general
I think we had a lot of good discussions
that wouldn't be included in the thread
we were going over collectibles and rwas and just how that all works out i think you know obviously
as that space heats up i think just having some people that actually know the space the ins and
outs the retail side can uh kind of steer you in a direction where you're kind of not you're new to
the space and you hear a lot of like poppycock and these white papers of like oh this is how we're going to do it and then you kind of
realize that they don't even have the capabilities of doing so so which i mean we've talked about as
in like david horvath's approach to collectibles and now even with clay knows it's completely
different not completely but definitely a different setup or, you know, groundwork than Pudgy Penguins has been or then BoardApe has been.
Right. So, I mean, you see different approaches from those that have had, let's just say, Web2 experience versus those that are forging a new path as a Web3 company, you know.
as a web three company you know 100 yeah and uh obviously when you're talking about rwas and stuff
there's different marketplaces that are already alive and um and like now you're starting to see
the rise of like digital collectibles now being traded through nfts i saw some csgo skin
um marketplaces and there's some nuance behind that too, right? Like this stuff already has marketplaces.
How are they going to bring them on chain?
This isn't any kind of a new concept.
This is stuff that people talked about in 2023.
So there are obviously people that are going to use this RWA meta
to kind of create opportunities for themselves and to rug people
and to kind of think that they have something unique when they really don't.
So when you are listening to these spaces you know white papers are great you know
but you're getting counter-strike skins is 10 15 plus years bro trading already on a on a set
marketplace and just you know what i'm saying it's not it's gonna be hard and not to say it's
impossible but people are gonna just ask why like what's the point of
going on chain you know and it's that question that we try to implement blockchain into everything
for fucking absolutely no reason just to say that it has blockchain or it's crypto and like you said
i mean a lot of grifting is gonna happen and at the underlying question gamers just ask why like
i mean i could just go on this platform that everybody's used for the last 15 years and buy my skins.
Like, why am I going to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum, whatever the hell you want to use, right?
Chuck E. Cheese books.
Like, it doesn't make sense.
I think the only thing that I can think of is why you wouldn't do something more on chain than just a typical marketplace is the capability of possibly taking out loans um with
your asset uh your and your collateral and getting more money to do stuff but i would imagine there's
probably opportunities to do that in web 2 too so well i think that on that point uh i would almost
counter and say that there isn't in web 2 to a certain extent not when it comes down to these fully digital stuff right but i don't think the people that have these assets think of these as financial tools or
instruments the same way we do we automatically go into well how can i i guess uh triple leverage
the same asset or or get the most out of it correct i mean i would love to talk to some
of these like guys that have millions of dollars worth of skins right if like taking a loan against
the rarest skin has ever came into their mind because i don't think it ever has right to them
it's a fucking digital skin fam and that's oh it's just worth a million dollars cool it's worth a million dollars
at the end of the day it's still just a digital skin to that guy right we're over here like well
it's actually not i can give you 50 on the loan and you can get 500k today and you just got to
pay it back or i take that skin from you in 30 days and it's like yeah they i'm pretty sure they
can understand that i mean typically most people understand how loans work and just, you know, interest rates, all that bullshit.
But you see what I'm saying?
Like, I would love to see or have that conversation with someone that has a good amount of money in that.
And if they see these as like financial tools, because I know a lot of the people in the Pokemon world or in the card world, they don't go and sit here and I'm going to go take a loan against my first edition Charizard. No, it just happens to be worth
this amount is all, you know, when they get higher and higher prices. And like, I just asked a
question yesterday, would you rather, if you're starting right now, rather have $300,000 real
estate or $300,000 worth of Charizards, it's skewing more and more to the Pokemon cards.
And so when
you have real estate you people take out you know equity out of that real estate they take loans off
that real estate and if you hear people like rich people they say the reason why i don't sell is
because it's a taxable offense if i could take a loan out on something and buy it back i don't have
to pay the taxes on it so as more as these become more and more mainstream they get more and more
popular and they go up in price more and more, these people are going to want to use these assets
similar to use real estate and take equity out of them so they can go pay stuff, go start businesses
with them and then pay them back as they create their businesses and get revenue. So I just think
it's just something, yeah, a lot of people don't think about it because it hasn't really been an
option. But as the digital age takes over and collectibles, digital collectibles become more popular
and a more safe haven than real estate,
which is kind of like a boomer's generation,
just like gold was that and now it's Bitcoin.
I think it's just a matter of time
until people start realizing like,
hey man, this skin is worth 300K.
I could pull some equity out of this
and go start a business.
And I don't think that's something that a lot of people even imagined probably 10 years ago,
but I think Web3 kind of enables that a little bit. So I think that-
It does, but it also gives them bigger losses too. I mean, can you think about that?
I don't think that these people have ever experienced like an actual, like a liquidation
loss of, well, you took an asset asset you leveraged against it and then you
lost twice and then everything's gone you know i think that that's the concept that they're like
well what do you mean or you're like well you borrowed against this so now we come and you
know we take it we take it all yeah just like any other time you take equity out of your house and
you can't pay it back and they take your house or yeah but you can't double dip that loan that's the thing bro yeah um but obviously let me make sure that we have no one because now that we
don't have co-hosts i got to check the phone and make sure that that's all set up and if anybody's
requesting up i got to add them onto the phone look up real quick there we go we're good um obviously this morning we had
job reports job reports come in and yeah worse than expected and so now you have
about two three times worse like that was crazy we're projecting 76k and then actual was 22
like we missed the mark by literally two three x is insane to me yeah and so uh
yeah now we're you know pretty much 98 chance of a rate cut. And now the probability of a two basis rate cut is up to like 38%,
which, you know, I mean,
I guess it's what Trump was looking at these numbers.
And I guess, you know, he was telling Jerome, you're too late.
You're too late. You're too late.
Like these numbers are going to get bad and you should cut in July.
And then two days after the July one,
the numbers come out and then it's doubled down today.
And so this is pretty much guaranteed. We're probably going to get at least two here.
October's on the rise. I think it's up to like 56% or some shit. So definitely get one September.
Depends on if it's going to be 0.25 or 0.5. We would love a 0.5. I don't think that's priced in.
Obviously, I like a 30 to 50% chance right now. I mean, it's closer we closer to get.
And during the day that it happens,
if he says that they're doing a 0.5,
you're going to see the market kind of take off because that isn't priced in.
I think the 0.1 or the 0.25 is already priced in.
I mean, obviously you saw the market drop
after this was announced
because people expected it to happen, right?
So yeah, I mean, we're at the point of like,
all right, how many rate cuts we get in this year?
Are we getting two?
Are we getting three?
I mean, we only have three meetings.
We could get four.
If we get a 0.5 in September, that would basically be four rate cuts in three meetings.
And so, yeah.
I mean, something I also think about, it's like we said it's unfortunate that things
have to break in order for it to get better.
But when you actually think about it, too, I mean, for the average person out there,
shit is not good, right?
I mean, unemployment's at the highest it's been since 2021.
Right. Since a little bit right after the pandemic and people were trying to get back into the market.
And then with the Fed no longer having to keep inflation under two percent and now focusing on unemployment, I think that that's going to be a bigger problem.
Right. I mean, yeah, people are going to have jobs, but now that's going to be a bigger problem, right?
I mean, yeah, people are going to have jobs, but now you're going to have hyperinflation and you're going to need wads and wads of money to buy a loaf of bread.
And I mean, and you've seen this example throughout history, right?
Argentina's one of them.
And then you have different countries in Africa and stuff like that, that they make bigger bills, right?
They have bills that are worth a million dollars or 5 million and stuff like that.
And it's due to hyperinflation.
Because, I mean, it makes no sense to carry a wheelbarrow full of money.
So what do you do?
You just have the Fed print you a bigger bill.
And now the money is still worth less.
But, you know, you're trying to balance it that way.
So I think that ultimately they're going to refocus on the actual inflation aspect of it.
And just hopefully it's not too late in that sense.
But that is going to be a problem if it goes over 2%, bro.
Because I mean, yeah, being employed is cool,
but being employed and the money you're making,
not being able to buy you shit means absolutely nothing.
Yeah, I mean, it becomes like a slippery
slope because if the economy is weak, then how does Bitcoin trade? Because obviously we call
digital gold. Gold is taking over. Silver's taking over. But today, the drop of this with the kind of
rise of possibly, are we entering possibly a recession? And if we enter a recession, then I
would imagine risk assets would probably get sold off. Even though that Bitcoin is supposedly marketed as digital gold, they're probably
going to trade more like an equity. And it's going to not be considered digital gold to retail and
people that have these assets that are like it's a new wave, right? So it's going to be interesting
how Bitcoin reacts if we do enter more of a downtrend. But I think maybe the saving grace is
if people are losing their jobs,
they're losing their jobs and AI's taking over,
could there be a stimulus check print?
You know, they've been hinting at like,
oh, we've been making money off these tariffs.
We could give it back to the consumer.
Well, that's what I was about to say.
That's probably exactly what's going to happen.
It's just now actual printing of money
and injecting it into the economy
and, you know, trying to see what happens there.
I mean, it's the same setup that we had in 21 when stimulus came out.
Literally.
And where do you think that money is probably going to go?
I mean, the last time we were given stimulus checks in 2021, they put it in crypto and it turned into, you put in Bitcoin, it was like like $19,000 if you put it as soon as you got the stimulus check.
And then if you put it in Doge, it was like over 100 grand or hundreds of thousands of dollars.
So many stories of people that have made money off putting their stimulus check in Doge.
So yes, we could enter a recession.
There could be ups and downs of why we go this.
But if there is some kind of universal basic income or some kind of stimulus check that's given to us, that could be some kind of stimmy that we've seen last cycle that kind of
stimulates this market. I'm not saying that these people that are hurting are going to go like,
okay, you get $1,000, $2,000, you're going to go pay your high premium credit card. Okay. Maybe
you're going to last maybe two months, but say you put that $2,000 in gambling,
maybe you turn that $2,000 into $8,000
and now you're in a better situation.
So I think people are going to go gamble that shit.
I mean, there's no way out of this current situation.
If you are like on your premiums,
if you are losing your job,
you're still paying that off.
It's still a vicious cycle.
And I think that people are going to gamble,
try to gamble their way out of the situation
and possibly do that online and so i'm starting to see a lot more
poses that was like bankruptcy ain't that bad you know just fuck it and leave type shit which
is all possible and what people try to talk about you know because at the end of the day it is a
financial instrument but that's a that's a mind shift that happens, right?
It's a sentiment thing when if everyone starts to think like that, then you start to really see the state of things.
I just don't see how it gets any better.
I mean, there's going to be less and less jobs going forward with AI adoption.
And so I think there has to be a fundamental switch.
And I think that's why a lot of people have suggested universal basic income as a solution.
Obviously, we have welfare already, but like maybe just every American gets a check every week
and doesn't have to worry about some of this shit.
I mean, I think to give everybody like a few thousand, I think Joe Rogan did the calculations.
I think if we gave everybody enough living spend, everybody gets $200,000. I think that's like $2 to $5 trillion, which is
what we spend on our defense budget. So we protect America with that much money. Why don't we protect
our citizens with the same amount and let them have a healthy wage? So I think that's becoming
more and more popular. You've seen that during the 2020 election. Was it Jonathan Wang weighing he was basically big on the universal basic income and i do think that might be something
we see in maybe the next five to ten years and where does that money i think that the issue with
that is that people just associate it too much with like fascism or socialism and stuff like that
and that's the oh it's a slippery slope you know literally when you start putting that oh you can
just chill the government will give you a check,
and it's like, well, I don't want to be owned by the government.
You know, and then you start to get both sides of the barbell swinging.
But I think that, I mean, socialism is becoming,
if you would have talked about that probably 10, 15 years ago,
people say there's no way that takes over,
but that sentiment's taking over.
I mean, as much as we do have a, you know,
more conservative, I mean, I don't think Trump's even that conservative. I think he's just more
middle grounded. I think the left's moved so far that I think that socialism is becoming more and
more accepted because people want some kind of person to blame on why things are in their current
situation. And they're like, okay, well, if the wealthies keep getting wealthy and the poor gets
poorer, then we want some help from the government government and the only way that we can survive is by
universal basic income which basically is money printing from the government so i think that's
just part of kind of the game that's going to be played i do think it kind of that becomes more and
more i mean it's like a hybrid right yep it's like a hybrid it's similar to what uh i guess
el salvador like a lot of people over there and i
mean uh my wife's family and all that kind of stuff like people that have been there and lived
through the hell love it now right i mean it's like it's night and day difference of how much
better it is quality of life security safety etc but for anyone else that, let's just say, if you look at what is actually
going on over there, I mean, it looks like a progressive form of just dictatorship and
socialism, right? I mean, even to the point of removing the cap of the presidential term,
yeah, he still has to run. And so you have this kind of hybrid democracy aspect of it,
of every four years or
whatever he reruns for office, but he can essentially run forever. And that's where
you're starting to get this blend of, oh, well, he's actually the hero or the savior. And he's
also the one that gets blamed for it all. But most people over there, I mean, don't utilize Bitcoin
at all. I mean, there's a very, very small sector of the whole country called Surf City, but through his Bitcoin purchases, he's giving them things coming from the government as a subsidiary.
And everyone gets to benefit from it, from the library to the veterinary system to all this other free shit.
And once again, it's like, is that socialism?
I mean, not directly, but is it indirectly the same thing?
Probably, yeah.
It feels like it
looks like it right so i don't know i think we're just going to see a lot more of these blends
and the only hope you have is that good checks and balance systems are in place to where you
don't lose that small little bit of democracy that's present right every four years having
to run for it again and all that yeah yeah so it's definitely interesting times it's not great like we said we need things to
break for our bags to pump which is unfortunate for everybody else but uh that's just where we're
at obviously people can't have jobs jobs go down rate cuts happen rate cuts at the bottom of the
of the barbell there create a bull market and maybe that's how us as early adopters of space
get out of our current
situations while everybody else is sidelined so maybe this is a golden opportunity for you guys
that stuck around that i mean i've shown you the charts like once rate cuts bottom out that's when
the bull markets start and i don't think we i mean to get to where we are right now to the bottom
is going to take multiple multiple multiple months it's probably going to take more than six to eight months. And that kind of leads up to Jerome Powell, um, a replacement coming
in May. And so that's making me think that the four-year cycle is over. And once we start getting
these rate cuts, we're going to start to see, uh, risk assets flow into this space, which is
ultimately going to create the bull market. And I market. If you go look at the 2018 to
2021 chart, it looks
nothing like the Bitcoin chart
as it is right now. The Bitcoin chart is trading
like an announcement fucking meme coin,
bro. It just goes, shoots up,
piss missiles, trades sideways and down
for four months, and piss missiles up.
You guys have all noticed that
Bitcoin's price basically
is off macro announcements and so
it's just creating top of the band to the bottom of the band bro and then piss missile up to a new
all-time high it's just it just it's the chart if you just look at the chart the monthly chart on
bitcoin and you go from 2018 to 2022 we have like double tops. We have 40% corrections. We have 60% corrections. Like you
go look at it once ETF started taking off and like in 2024 ish, like it's like green candle up,
trade sideways and down for six months, green candle up, all new high, trade sideways for six
months. It just is, it's a steady stair climb up and it's trading differently than it has in the previous
cycles. And I think it has a lot to do with institutional adoption. And so if we're running
off the institutional adoption cycle, then if rate cuts actually happen, why wouldn't we pump
off those announcements? Like that is something that is creates more liquidity in the system.
It would be fucking stupid if that kind of shit didn't affect
the bitcoin price like just imagine if we go down to two percent interest rates and bitcoin drops to
fucking 60k that would be totally like off the norms of way the bitcoin charts reacted to price
cuts and rate cuts before so the only issue is when you're starting to get too close to the chest
of where people are actually needing this relief immediately, and this is an immediate relief, right?
This is six months in relief.
And so we get to rally off of the noob and off of the cut itself here as CP.
But, you know, what is the next?
It's like we're still needing another checkpoint in order to make it frothy or keep the casino going, the circus, whatever the lights on
to where retail comes in. Retail is not going to feel this immediate rate cut the same way we are.
They're not going to trade it. They'll feel it in six months if it in fact does make things better
for them and that works. Yeah, I think where I'm coming is when if rate cut, like obviously
retail is going to come off price action.
And the way that Bitcoin is going to react to this stuff is these people that have the large money funds, the people that have all the money are going to be able to take loans
out where they're taking loans out at six to 7%.
And now they're going to be able to take loans out for two to 3%.
They're going to fucking take loans out and they're going to have way more money than
they have in the past four years.
And they're going to go throw it in risk assets, which is going to be billions and trillions of dollars, which is going to make all these assets go up in price.
And they're going to go crazy. And then the retails.
But that is one thing that we didn't see this year is the credit card cycle, which last cycle.
That was so many people's demise. But I mean, it was a for i'm not going to say the top but an indicator
where we were in the cycle right motherfuckers going out there grabbing credit cards liquidating
the whole thing and just i just bought bitcoin or i just bought soul or whatever everybody
whatever it was right so that's when they feel like it's going to outperform whatever their
interest rate is and then you really get that confidence and greed in the market,
like as a confirmation, you know, confidence.
Yeah. I mean, retail is always late when retail is not,
you don't even notice that credit card. I mean,
obviously the rates on credit cards probably won't go down or their mortgages,
the refinance or mortgages probably won't go down.
So maybe three to four months after it bottoms out. And then that's, you know,
obviously the big money's gonna come in
and take advantage of it
because they have liquidity on the sideline.
They're gonna FOMO into risk assets.
They're gonna make the price go up.
And then by the time those motherfuckers
can refinance and take their money out,
they're buying the top and getting liquidated.
So like two to three months in
after all these motherfuckers stole their money,
that's when you guys could start refinancing
your mortgages back down to 3%.
Now you have extra spare change and now retail
FOMO's at the top and they get all fucking
wrecked. So that's kind of how I feel like
it's going to play out.
And so, I mean, it's just
interesting times to be alive. Interesting
times to be here.
Yeah, man. I mean, now we got trading
on-chain Pokemon cards, CS
GoSkins, Prediction Markets. Oh, I got a post about that. Someone just breaking it all down. But real quick, pinned up to the yeah man i mean now we got trading on-chain pokemon cards cs go skins prediction markets
i got i got a post about that someone just breaking it all down but real quick
pinned up to the top we got three different but related uh first budget penguins comes out
and announcement with openc everybody is really harping on the wording penguins have come home
i mean the fuck does home mean it's a
marketplace right um and so i think that that's one of those interesting things that literally
all over the timeline it's people what does home mean did luke acquire open c he said he was going
to buy something this and that and so we've talked about that speculation here on the show plenty of
times and uh just i don't know i don't know if it adds to it or if this is
confirmation but do however you want to speculate add to that so next pudgy party um i brought you
guys this the day of release it's the online fall games version right it's by mythical a lot of the
characters are actually nfts they're tradable assets price on those have fucking like 20x i mean the tim rats were four dollars now they're 80 the big fucking captain pudgies
are like 85 to 100 bucks or whatever so the small little bit of strategy in that sense guys is
you you stack the same nft asset over and over again,
and you merge them together and you can hit a peak of a thousand shards or
10,000 shards or something like that. Right.
And that becomes the max level for that character.
So if you go out and you buy four or five of the rats or the captain pudgies
or whatever, this is where I fucked up.
Like I bought a bunch of gold skins and i thought
okay cool i'm gonna you know flip the gold skins and then i accidentally did the merge and boom all
my gold skins were gone and i earned some shards like it's a level four like rat but i mean that's
cool but i lost out on way much more bread right paying for a premium so build up your characters
and then sell them as a completed character with its traits.
Next, there is a soulbound token, right?
We asked you guys and we posted this at the show before the game came out.
If you went and you just pre-downloaded it or set it to pre-download and filled out the form, you receive a soulbound token.
People are assuming that it'll have some type
of reward. Obviously, the main account is talking and saying, what a fumble if you missed it.
So go check your wallets. And I think that this is interesting. The way that they're actually
rolling out the soulbound token slash the claim is officially through MetaMask's airdrop.
So it's not actually a soul bound to where you go and you see
it in your wallet or whatever it may be it's kind of like that right i mean you probably do but
you have to go through metamask's airdrop portal to actually see it and potentially i guess claim
it i haven't i've yet to do it right all this came out this morning but yeah dude i've been
going hard on the the game itself uh really having fun with that. It seems too easy.
Like, I don't know if I'm playing against actual real people.
Because once again, I mean, like, yeah, I feel like I'm good.
But there's no reason that, you know, every game you win or when you look at the fucking whole leaderboard, I think I'm like number 30 in the world.
So I don't think it's the whole world playing or maybe we attracted a lot of the just farmers.
But anyway, all that's there for Pudgy Party.
Well, don't you remember when the collectibles came out and you were able to scan the QR code and you were able to kind of pick off from a marketplace to kind of.
Was it was it the Igloo Island or whatever?
Remember that? And then like the first like week
they went ballistic and like you could have made money yeah where you could or you could
sold the the skins right the gold skins i think that yeah i agree on that i think that the only
main difference now is that this is looped in with mythical's marketplace and so you can kind
of at least like people that are there for other things can see a new game that has the same mechanics and participate.
But my issue is, I mean, and that's a good point.
You brought that up is this kind of even dilution in the game side of things.
Right. I feel like they have like four or five different activations all around like gaming.
all around like gaming and you really don't know which one is the quote-unquote official
And you really don't know which one is the quote unquote official.
because i have all those little like mini five below igloos all the plushies and they all come
with the qr code that you scan i have all of those and i've saved them for maybe potential
a pangu airdrop or but that's like their uh club club penguin world or whatever pudgy penguin world
or whatever i don't know what it was actually
called but that's a different game than this one you know and so i think that that's the only thing
that they're going to start confusing people is having too many different games and some people
assuming that the skins are cross and and some aren't right so yeah it's kind of typically when
i feel like you just mentioned the game super easy. It's attracted farmers and you've got FOMO and trying to.
But all the NFT skins, the ones that you can manage, I actually realized that this morning, that campaign is gone.
That was a campaign for, I think, 24 to 48 hours when the game first launched.
And they gave you a bunch of the characters and the things needed in order to get the actual nfts
because i think there's only three characters in there that are digital the rest are all on the
game and you can't do anything with them so it's it's been harder to actually get the assets right
and so i think that that's why you have so many farmers on like the base level without any of the
good stuff and they're trying to play for the good stuff it'll just be interesting if if that maintains attention you know yeah that's kind
of when i start getting fomo of trying to like up my shit i feel like instead of merging i should
just be selling my assets and and then taking profit especially in this market because i mean
like think about it you're gonna get what you can get one character up to the max level and and sell
that one guy off and hopefully it's worth it it's just all about how long it takes you to get there
it's the attention still on the game to where a max level character is going to be attractive or
by the time you get there right because if you're just trying to grind it and naturally receive all
the stuff like not put money in or you're never going to make it by the time you make it to that
level i mean attention is probably not there anymore right so you have to put some money up buy some characters do all that
bullshit and you know be like hey be that first sale or that second sale while it's hot yep that's
what i was thinking um and soulbound token i mean i've seen ton getting more and more recognition
um this game's on ton right or is it on mythical i forget it's on
it's on is it a telegram game though no okay so like airdrop do you think there's possibly going
to be some kind of pudgy like point associated with this or are they just going to airdrop you
more like wearables and more like traits and shit i think there might be a that the second
half of the pengu airdrop that's going to come
out to their uh stuff remember he said like the plushies the card games all that kind of stuff
he said everything in their ecosystem is going to catch a little bit of pengu on the second round
and i think i mean that's why i've literally kept all the qr codes from the igloos from the cards
that i've opened and all that for that purpose.
I mean, it might not be anything.
It might be something, you know, but yeah,
maybe it's in this next round of Pangu AirDrop.
It signifies that you're, you know, a game user, whatever it is.
And then going back to just every asset from Little Pudgy's,
Rogs and Pudgy Penguins got a crate from open c yesterday
um i think it's a good platform like i like i've been stating i feel like the os platform is going
to be more token um and the fact that you can use open c to swap between soul abstract and eth
makes it feel like it's a good home for pudgy penguins especially if you're be able you know
they have like they're pretty little pudgies are interoperability they did that with layer zero
and so if you were going to switch between like pingu soul and pingu abstract and eth and all this
and like little pudgies on different chains i think openc is a great thing for that to kind of
for retail which you know retail is going to come on to openSea and be able to swap tokens,
it's a great place to kind of market the fact that you could swap your Pingu soul to Pingu abstract whenever it bridges over there.
So I think that's the first thing.
Obviously, I did an engagement farm video when Luca was with Razmer
and basically scratching his nose about the token airdrop.
And, oh, I thought you bought something, this and that.
I don't actually think he bought it,
but I think there's a pretty good chance that you see this collaboration
that when the OpenSea airdrop actually comes out, there will be, you know.
Maybe he didn't buy it.
Maybe he just took a stake in the company.
I just think that they're, I mean, he's just using his BD skills.
I think when the OpenSea airdrop token comes out, which is going to come out, you know, probably in the next two to three months, I do think Pudgy Penguins are going to get a share of it.
Yeah, so I just think, like, that's part of the collaboration.
They're like, you saw Moonbirds did something similar.
And I mean, I've seen CyberKong's recently give, like, 2% of their airdrop to open sea users so i just think this is
kind of them open sea working in the background to find communities that they're gonna not just
reward you know holders and people that did the voyages but also nft collections and communities
and i think that is kissing the ring bro yep yep so i feel like there's just part of like you're
starting to see the end working of the marketing. Like they're getting the BD,
they're getting the communities already.
And it's like,
part of this is like,
if you're going to give us a part,
let's do an XB campaign.
Let's market this.
And you're,
you're starting to see that like the dots being connected.
And I think the open Sierra jobs probably,
probably announced by the end of the month,
the latest dude,
I just like,
this is the last stages of this shit
and I don't think they could do much more farming until
they kind of I don't know
I just feel like it's coming sooner than later
and this is like these are typically the last little
touches you put on the campaign before you kind
of release it and shit and they've pretty much upgraded
pretty much everything on it I think the only thing
they're missing is ordinals which might
be announced soon but I mean
maybe they can do some
um perpetual trading on there but i think it's pretty close to being finished and obviously we
had that article come out by adam beginning of summer and basically hinting that yeah there is
a token and you know it's not a few weeks away but it it is coming. And so since, since there's some kind of timetable here in the 2025 season that this is
going to be airdropped. And I do think asset,
there will be other communities other than pudgy penguins that get a small
portion of this open sea airdrop when it does come out. So it's going to be
big news. I can't wait for that. We need a STEMI.
It's like you said,
every collection has kind of been paying an homage to open sea right now. mean you got kong's doodles yeah doodles and stuff like that
yeah so any of these that are doing this whole open sea collab thing i'm pretty sure they'll
be rewarded in that sense uh pinned up to the top is obviously the the topic of conversation
right and it's what i was talking to you about yesterday is uh people i mean coming
out and asking questions like how do you determine odds for this kind of stuff yeah i mean if you
don't know where the pool of of assets or cards that you're pulling from how do you know what the
odds are of me hitting you know the chase or the the gem mint 10 or anything like that and how they're just basically putting whatever the fuck they want on there um so this guy obviously take this
with a grain of salt as he owns his own platform that does something similar but he's also sharing
his experience and what was needed in the hoops that he had to jump through to prove this kind of
uh fair uh i guess provability right the same thing that people had to jump through to prove this kind of fair, I guess, provability,
right? The same thing that people ask when you go to the casino and you see these casino apps
doing the roulette or any of the slots, right? Is it on-chain provable that this was random?
So he posts everything up there. I mean, it is a really long read, but for those of you guys that are curious, if you want to go and start spending your money on these gacha machines or kind of like my comment, right? I mean, it was just a shot in the dark at them. on the same app at the same time on the same day you have literally better odds of winning the 1.3
billion dollar powerball than you do of all of that happening and the cards that they were hitting
weren't cards once again that were relevant 10 years ago right or 20 years ago when the hobby
was this or that i mean we're talking cards that are now at the peak
of being the hottest things on the market and you still happen to just all these people happen to
pull versions of this so uh he's just i think that this is what is the important part says when users
see a 15 chance uh for a five to fifteen item, they assume that even distribution, that means that the average
would be a $10 value. Platforms even display expected EV based on this assumption,
often claiming that you are infinitely profitable opening their packs, and this doesn't even pass
the sniff test. The reality is there's
no way to know whether the odd ranges are evenly distributed or not. A primary look into on-chain
data shows that some of these platforms indicate that the odds table were weighted towards the low
end of the value range, and I will continue to investigate the data to get more conclusive
evidence and follow up. In addition to this obfuscation, they don't show the full list of items you could win.
They just dangle the top pools in front of you and mask the fact that the majority of
the items in there are uninteresting, overpriced, or in poor condition.
So this is literally doubling down on our conversation yesterday with Udentra about,
you know, the difference of having your own supply and running one of these.
Tapping into this infinite brings vault to where I can technically say anything's in the vault and you have a chance to get it.
And then really, where is this list of prizes and how many of each prize are actually stocked in the machine at any amount of time?
and how many of each prize are actually stocked in the machine at any amount of time so doesn't
on chain fit nfts and on chains fix this dude that's why i don't understand why like either
they're hiding something well it's because no one owns using the tech no one owns their no one owns
it that's the problem it's like the issue is is that no one owns like a thousand slabs and say
you're pulling from these thousand when these thousands
are done we'll go buy so people are pulling a digital pikachu that isn't actually backed one
to one with a digital pikachu it is it's just not backed it like they're pulling from like the
library catalog of all bolted digital so the only the reason they have to go buy it is if someone
actually physically claims it and they're basically suggesting that they're not going to physically claim it and just re-roll.
Yes. That's literally all that's happening is them basically paper trading synthetic tokens over and over.
And that's what I was saying.
that which are more than not you're not going to because you're losing every role then they're not
actually having to go out and go buy it and and actually buy a bit or whatever it is you know
so their supply would be basically cut in half their their machines would be down for months at
on end at this amount of volume if they actually had each card backed one to one ready to go
thinking that every person that's going to pull the prop,
like they're a hundred percent going to want the physical,
but they know they would,
they would literally have a bank run if everyone in one day decided to claim
their card instead of like,
just take the loss and just want the physical instead,
they would be fucked.
The market would spark spike on every card that they would have to buy and
claim because of that.
Maybe we should do that. Would that make all the cards in real life go up if everybody claimed at the same time bro
yeah because people would then well they would have to basically go to ebay or any marketplace
like for example let's just say that they show you that you want an illustrator pikachu well
there isn't any on the market right now so now what how
the fuck are you gonna get one of those bro you know and then we're all just gonna sit here
a bank run bro this is obviously let's go buy the secondary and then let's all fucking sell them at
the same time and then our secondary ones that we have physical are gonna go up in price then we go
to card shows and we're like see they're up're up crazy amount. Why is that? Because there's a bank run in fucking courtyard right now.
And that's literally why this is going to happen eventually.
And that's what I was trying to explain to you.
That's what people like the normal people think has been happening since day one.
And we haven't even unlocked that yet.
Like we haven't introduced these DGENs to that world yet.
Like the crypto ones, when you bring them and you realize that all of this is possible,
oh, it's over. It's literally over because someone's going to go and say, well, I'll just
spend $150 and buy $5 promo cards. And if me and you buy them all, then in a month when someone
wants them, I mean, now what? Now they got to buy it from us yeah i was there was a i was
doing some research on the cs go cs go skins one and the one that was looking like a vibe coded one
i think it's called like skin something skin models um basically you read their white paper
and they're like how do we get our skins how do we get our skins and they're like oh once
you claim them then we go buy them off the marketplace and send them to you
yeah so that's what i was trying to say like that's what i was off the token because obviously
all these tokens have revenue generation so they're using the token as a way to get revenue
and then the revenue that they get from the trading of the token then they go buy csgo skins on top of the people that use the gacha spins that re-roll and yeah bro it's like running a
lottery for a car you don't own and then you obviously make more money running the raffle
and then you go buy the car with the raffle money and that's it and then you pocket the rest
and you run it back and i mean that's that was my whole issue with like doing this is
that i mean it's not you don't even know your odds you just know what they're saying is the carrot on
the stick or what what's in there and you're like well how many are you don't even know that you
know you just know well they said it's in here okay cool but do you have it on hand and i think
that that's the biggest thing it's like whoever can showcase a vault or can have a steady supply is gonna is gonna really change this up
because the odds are gonna be better they'll be able to charge more per gacha spin because they
have better odds and then they can verify that they actually are in possession of these slabs
or whatever it is i think the card shops the card shops the
physical card shops have all the supply bro like i go into these motherfuckers talking to them and
they just they're sitting on thousands and thousands and thousands of millions of dollars
worth of cards bro i'm like if they created one of these gotcha machines you just have distribute
yeah you just have distributor issues yeah like dude to be an
actual distributor to get this stuff like either right at msrp or below it like wholesale
i mean we're talking damn near like fucking fed investigation you know send pictures of your
store send picture of people part playing games in your store let me see how much money you actually
make in your store you know
it's like where's a table for people to come if they want to set up and trade so it's like you
there's a million things that you have to do and that's just so they can approve you and then you're
clearly jumping through those hoops indefinitely if you want to maintain that you know but they
can't tax right they can't tax like if they get a box for 70 and it's worth 115 that's all they can
sell it for is 115 bro because if they sell it for 116 license gone you know and so it's like
that's another issue i don't know you just get into that that problem
we need the distributors to do this you know you need to go to one step up of the stores to do
tops tops and like, yeah.
I mean, that's obviously what's probably going to happen, right?
Like you see stock X and then they get shut down and like Nike, we're going to do this.
And the distributor of the shoe is going to fucking do the NFT version of the shoes.
Everybody's doing that, bro.
I mean, even like let's, let's kind of shift gears, but also in the same realm.
I mean, uh rolex is
offering now certified pre-owned watches the fuck you mean like what you're telling me that
you you still want to buy the watch even though it's not available oh cool well now we're about
to clip and cut all these jewelers out because you can just buy a pre-owned watch from us directly
like don't go to a jeweler go to me so now how do you own the
used market and the new market i mean technically it the monopoly is there right so it's like you
said people are just going to start to kind of debo these sectors and just the whole sector is
theirs yeah i think like i'm talking to you yesterday about it like i go to the card shops
and the underneath the cases they have the cases and all those are PSA graded.
But then you go back to like to have boxes and boxes of like sorted like Frank Thomas cards.
And those are just in sleeves. And you mentioned like actually getting these things vaulted.
There needs to be a PSA grade on it and PS PS grade, like for you to send it to the courtyard,
it already needs to be graded.
You just can't, I guess you could also pay for them to grade it,
but then that cuts out your margins.
So it's like, there's only kind of a small supply
that's actually worth,
like if I go get a Frank Thomas rookie car
that's worth two bucks
and I have to go get PSA graded for 20,
I can't even, why would I fucking go
and then pay for shipping to send it?
Like, what's my margin?
Like negative EV, bro? So there's a lot of cards that just sit that you're just waiting for someone
just like complete a collection that makes no sense of actually even sending to these vaults
because it costs you too much money as a dealer to even make any profit off of it it just like
benefits the gotcha company more than it benefits actually the people that are sending the cards
so it's like i think that's a big issue and i think you're right i think the distributors like
the tops the ones that actually create the cards are the ones that are going to release their own
digital collectibles you know packs because they're the ones that can just print this shit
out of thin air right and like from the watch companies to csgo to we even talk about like
shoe companies like obviously the big
companies once this becomes profitable they're just going to create their own and then they're
going to dominate the market just like we see all these blockchains like these banking blockchains
google blockchains are going to dominate these blockchains now that came up before them once
there's enough money to be made here and there's enough profit margin don't you think the big
people that actually have the money and the consumers are going to do it themselves?
And so I think you can make your money while you can.
But to think that Fortyard or Crypt Card Crypt or this HutchFi CSGO skin is going to be leading, like the leading brand in five to ten years.
I think that that's probably wrong, right?
Like, I think that these things are obviously there's edge
because people don't understand the nuance of it and we have been discussing the nuance of it
and people will fomo in the but once you actually break it down like there's a lot of funny business
like you just mentioned like there's no way that any of these influencers could be pulling these
pikachu cards well there's no different than a meme coin sending the influencer tokens on the side.
And now he's talking about it in his live stream
or a meme coin pays somebody's pay.
Or the casinos, right?
The casinos.
The casino gives you $1,000 to stream
and go lose money.
I mean, they literally tell you
to go spend the thousand that they give you.
And I think there's like, you know,
they set it up.
Yo, if you win, we do a split
or whatever the fuck your rules are. But mean that's the same thing i mean tg not to say this was specifically
but tg gave away a lot of those cards that he pulled yesterday that he lost or two days ago
that he lost two or three hundred bucks and you know those were fidgetals saying hey we're going
to give these cards away on the stream so i mean I mean, you use them as that, an influencer.
Hey, this is a product.
Can you demo it on camera for me?
And, you know, I mean, it's no different.
I just don't want people to be swayed as like odds and stuff like that.
There's actual like logic and science behind this of why most people still don't use this
route of gachapon and blind boxing and stuff, because it's a lot of trust.
And that's why the
token's doing so well is because people don't believe that this is actually profitable so they
just want to bet on the attention that the protocol's getting right no one wants that like
we just keep going back to this this thought process is no one wants to own any of this shit
they just want to speculate on the attention and that's ultimately what the token lets you to do.
And that's why, you know, I think cards hit an all-time high today.
This is continuing to be talked about.
They're continuing to onboard their influencers.
And the only one, you can't speculate on Courtyard.
You can't speculate, like, you have smaller ones like Fidgetals and Aporium.
But the one that everybody's talking about that
everybody the screenshots is from cards and so the fact that that's getting the tension
it people are just getting into the more liquid asset and they're they're speculating on the token
and that's ultimately what everybody wants to do and that's why i was like i i pinned up a like i
got the dune dashboard this morning and you're looking at the weekly volume of Courtyard
is pretty much losing a lot of volume.
Like, they're at $9 million of gotcha volume this week.
And they have peaked from last week.
They were at about $18 to $19 million.
So they're two times.
I mean, obviously, there's two to three days left to get up there.
But the fact that Cards has actually stolen Mindshare
has ultimately left people leaving Courtyard
and actually going onto cards and actually pulling Pokemon cards
instead of doing what everybody's been doing, which is Courtyard.
So the fact that there's no way to speculate on Courtyard
is actually leaving them behind in volume and people are going
to the places where they can't speculate
on, you know,
the attention that it's getting. And it's going to start, bro. We'll see
within the next six months, I think by Christmas
you'll see. And I think
in Hewman's platform, Shiny,
all he could tell me was that
he owns his own supply
and that was one of the things that he's
going to really boast about
right um i'll post that up to the top but i think that within the next six months or so we'll see
that i mean the same amount of thousands of dollars that you guys are or you're seeing people
spend on these fucking gatches bro if you just go out and buy uh 50 to 100 slabs and then you
buy some high-end ones i mean you can set a decent inventory with 50K and literally make that back within a week or so of your gacha going hard.
The issue just becomes sourcing cards, right? Once again, I mean, you take off and everybody
clears you out in one night, you're out of commission. Website's closed for tomorrow.
So, I mean, even just 24 hours, it has to be closed. Like I have to go buy more cards.
So that's why people just tap into that
whole branks vault because i mean it's unlimited right i mean hundreds of thousands of cards are
in there and technically they don't even have to ever go source they pick up the phone and say yo
i got an order for number 556 cool boom send 556 out and so that's really the the only issue that
you're having is i mean there's no way to make this long unless you're buying
nonstop 24 seven, basically, you know? Yeah. I think obviously if there is no bank run,
then these can continue to do well. Like if, if more people are ripping packs, just like me on
courtyard and seeing that, Oh, I just spent 50 bucks and I bid an $80 card. I made $30 profit.
I'm just going to sell the 90% bid.
And the fact that they advertise that
creates the insulation that they actually,
the magic trick continues to work, right?
Because once everybody bank runs and there's no supply
and then they have to shut down
because they have nothing on supply,
that ends the magic trick.
So I actually think as long as they keep advertising 90% buybacks
and sell it for profit, I actually think this can go on a lot longer.
I mean, August volumes for Pokemon cards,
Pokemon TCG, $124 million.
And last month, what was the big meta?
What was the big meta?
It was tokenized stocks, X stocks.
It was tokenized stocks, X stocks.
And I mean, we're seeing the same thing too.
I mean, similar to how we saw Popmart become
the highest grossing brand in a sense due to Labubu.
A lot of these big box retailers,
Walmart, Target, Costco, all that stuff, right?
Vendors come and place these items inside the store.
So there's technically no real association to a
Costco or Walmart, right? The stock is not theirs. They don't come out of pocket for it.
They are selling shelf space. Well, over the last six months with this Pokemon craze, I mean,
we're talking billions of dollars are now coming in due to the popularity of cards.
are now coming in due to the popularity of cards. And now Walmart, Target, Costco, you're even
seeing Dix and a bunch of other big box realtors are adding cards in there just because of the
amount of revenue that it's making them, right? Even if it is just foot traffic and just secondary
sales, you come into Walmart for a pack of Pokemon cards, they don't have any, you go and you say,
fuck it, I need some shoes or, hey, I need some groceries or hey i need whatever right and so they're winning
in that sense but yeah all the big box retailers are now which is funny because it's following the
same pattern that we saw pop martin abubu uh billion dollars of revenue now just from the
card business alone yeah because like pack ripping is the experience, right? And so what is
what is the digital collectible platform, dude, it gives you the dopamine hit of packing rip or
ripping packs and then selling for profit. And then you can keep ripping packs. And like right
now you're seeing all these Pokemon and vending machines, like vacant, there's nothing left that's
dried up. And so people can't have that experience. So to get that experience, they come to the digital realm. And as long as that you're not
wanting the physical version, you can keep getting the dopamine hit over and over and over and over
again. So I do think there's a lot more people left to come. And just with the Pokemon TCG,
$124 million in volume just in August. And this is compared to Xstocks,
which is the tokenized stocks platform, 74 million.
So like Xstocks has like tokenized stocks,
which kind of spectrums to all the Wall Street
and just Pokemon RWA sector did two times the volume.
And this isn't even considering CSGO skins,
sports collectibles, watches,
everything else that can be rwa spun up and so
i do think this is the start of something bigger and i think it really comes down to
well people love raffles people love raffles i mean i don't know in your circles or something
like that but i got homies that do it for guns cars jewelry you know all that shit on instagram non-stop you know
most people get nft mints chief is because the reveal the reveal of what your rarity is bro like
it's that's what people are here for bro it's the dopamine hit of what could i get and you're just
basically being able to multiply that more than you could do an irl because there's only so many
packs to rip.
They're all gone.
You can't find them,
but I can rip packs and get that feeling 4,000 times.
I've had enough money online each day,
So it's like a better,
it's a more dopamine hit.
So it's kind of,
I feel like it,
I think this takes off,
As long as people don't actually want to fame,
the claim,
the physical people are just want that fucking feeling,
Of just swiping up. Right. So I don't know, man, this is the physical people are just want that fucking feeling bro of
just swiping up right so i don't know man this is the start of something way bigger dude and
obviously we talked about the fud part of it but like we just mentioned as long as there's no bank
run these continue the magic trick continues bro and people keep getting what they want which is
ultimately yeah and even then i mean even if there is a bank room, if they can source the cards, they're fine.
You know what I'm saying?
Like, that's the thing.
It's not even everybody trying to claim at the same time.
Yeah, that'll be a hit in their business model.
It's not what they planned for, but ultimately it's a part of the game, right?
You take an L sometimes.
Your only issue is going to be is that, okay, if you don't have that on hand or you have no access to it, then now what, right?
And I don't think that really you're gonna try to
position yourself with something like that you know just for the off chance you do lose
but i mean i don't know as long as there's somewhat level of integrity bro we should be okay
and it'll continue to grow and like you said people are just buying back and selling that's it
yeah i think ultimately like i mentioned like the odds like obviously you don't know the odds of a Pokemon card if the people at the card place are taking the fucking cards out of the seals, which we have seen, right?
And I think what blockchain does is that you can basically have some kind of Merkle tree or some kind of blockchain technology to basically give you trusted way of like, this is the RNG of this pack.
If you buy a $25 pack,
you have a one in 24 chance of pulling a car that's higher. If you're buying a $100 pack,
you have a one in five. If you're buying a $100 pack, you have a one in three chance.
And I think if we can implement these blockchain technologies into these platforms, it creates a
trust factor that some people are kind of concerned about with the IRL,
with like a lot of these news stories coming out of these people stealing the pack.
So I don't know if they actually want that to happen.
I mean, the technology is there, but like you mentioned,
the fact that they realize like, oh, we only have a thousand cards on pack
kind of like creates a less favorable like marketing campaign than,
hey, they don't know that we don't have a million cards we
only have a thousand and if they do have it then we have to go buy some more and just not great
for the platform to even advertise that stuff but i think eventually that all that stuff needs to be
kind of incorporated to bring trust to the space if we're going to want more people here
in the future which if it all comes online then there's a massive supply right but as we go right
now is more and more people come from the irl to the digital space, they're going to want some, they think of this
space as a scam already. They're going to want some kind of information of why this is different
than what they experienced before. And I think blockchain technology can clear that up with
kind of showing transparency of odds and RNG and that this pack has this odds and this is how much
we have on chain and what we have in our vault because it's all tied to an nft so i think that's where we go bro
i mean maybe not right now because it's about just marketing to web3 dgens but eventually you're
going to have millions of people coming to this space and they're like all right fucking prove
to me that you have this shit or i'm not coming and so i think that is something that will kind
of steer people here is the transparency fact of all the TCG and all this stuff in these vaults.
So I love this.
we've talked about meme coins.
We've talked about NFTs for,
we talked about perps.
I really enjoy talking about like prediction markings at RWAs,
I get excited about it.
It's interesting.
There's a lot of layers,
a lot of nuance.
I do think the fact that I get excited about it, It's interesting. It's new. There's a lot of layers, a lot of nuance. I do think the fact that I get excited about it, maybe it's top-ish.
But I think that if you scroll out and you look at what's going to be the next emerging markets,
I think these are probably going to lead to more retail coming to the space, which we ultimately want.
There's no way motherfuckers are going to come into meme coins.
Now with these creator fees with the meme coins, it's actually more profitable just to
launch coins. And it actually is the trade them. That's what like, ultimately what pump fun just
did is like, okay, we're going to give fees to the creator of the coins. And so you trying to
figure out what coin to buy is actually EV negative. Then it's like the people that are
deploying, like, well, at least I don't have to find which one's going to be profitable.
I'll just continue to create PVP after PVP and just make those five, 10% fees on my token
and rug it.
So it's like, how is that going to be?
How is creating tokens, multiple millions of tokens off the same, the same attention,
whatever's been going to attention that day how is that going to attract
retail people it just creates more and more rugs and more and more supply and then the user
experiences shit because okay sydney sweeney said something fucking great but everybody knows that
they did great and they just launched 25 tickers that spread out the liquidity through 25 tickers
and then the piece that the people that created the token just fucking took five percent of all the fees and then it is rugged and they move on to the next fucking attention
that's getting the next minute so like how is meme coin meme coins are are not it nfts is old news
it's evolved into digital collectibles perps trading is predatory i mean it's hard i mean
it's not retail friendly.
And I think that these two are possibly going to be the easiest things that retail will
come in here and basically bet their money on.
And obviously, us as crypto people know that there's possibly tokens or IPOs attached to
this and we can leverage that instead of actually believing in these RNG, these, these RNGs and these making profit
action for this stuff. Like if Polymarket continues to make money, Polymarket IPO is
going to go ballistic. And we just bet on the liquid asset. You know, if Courtyard launches
a token, people are going to come in here and FOMO into the Pokemon cards, but you,
you're going to FOMO into liquid asset, which which is the courtyard token. So I think us, I think our edge is the fact that we know where the attention goes and
it goes into the token. And so if people are going to play the game, we want to invest into
where the attention flows, which is ultimately the underlying asset, which is the token backed
by the protocol. So that's where I'm at. That's where I'm at. I don't know if you have anything else, Chief.
We're up here by ourselves.
You're on the road.
It's been a long week.
And I appreciate you guys coming out to the show.
Kind of a drowsy September day.
It's a Friday.
We got football on today.
We have the Chiefs playing the Chargers and Brazil.
And then we got Saturday football.
And then Sunday, Monday, NFL football. So I'm going to have fun. today we have the Chiefs playing the Chargers and Brazil and then we got Saturday football and then
Sunday Monday NFL football so I'm gonna have fun hope you guys enjoyed the show maybe there'll be
more uh opportunities next week maybe there'll be some more engagement maybe we will come back but
I can understand why people have fallen off and why people don't care so I mean the price is
people have roller coaster fatigue bro we go up and then we come back down we go up we go back
down we have good news we go down we have bad news we go up it's just no one people want a direction and right
now we're just chopping around and people are kind of uh i'll come back when we get some green candles
and i can understand that so hopefully you guys uh enjoyed the space hope you guys enjoyed the
effort uh that we put into the space and uh we'll be back next week. So I appreciate you guys. And I'll leave here Chief to end it.
I'll see you guys.
See you guys later.
I appreciate everybody that came out to the TV.
Appreciate it.
That means a lot to us.