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The Macro Show | LIVE Macro Discussion w/ Keith McCullough
Recorded: March 3, 2026 Duration: 0:36:57Space Recording
Full Transcription
. Thank you. Good morning, March 3rd, 2026. Welcome to the macro show business as usual at Hedgeye.
Is it?
We will get right into a little
risk management are you on tilt uh i was just losing it this morning yeah i was trying to be
like micro marco or some of these guys that were bearish for like the whole quad one run up and
they're like i told you so i called it the south korean cosby's a bubble if you know something's
a bubble you should have bought it, right?
Because bubbles go up and then they pop.
We'll see what happens in South Korea.
It's actually its first down day, but it was down over 7% last night.
So that certainly, that'll get people awake and working.
What we want to make sure, and again, welcome to all of you that are new this week.
We appreciate it.
This is indeed a better way.
What we want you to wake up to is, one, embracing the very basic fact that you have no idea what's going on.
Number two, neither does anybody on old wall TV.
And number three, neither do I.
Embrace that uncertainty and then let the market tell you and show you the way.
That's the way we do it.
Again, I'm not trying to make calls on the way the world could or should be or the end of the world. In some cases, people are exaggerating now. Call any of your friends, by the way we do it. Again, I'm not trying to make calls on the way the world could or should be, or the end of the world in some cases people are exaggerating now.
Call any of your friends, by the way.
I just did a call with one of our Middle Eastern clients with the whole firm.
I mean, it's not as bad as the Western media is depicting it.
And I'm positioned appropriately for it, so I'm long energy.
I mean, I have no incentive to tell you that.
I don't make shit up like most people that talk about markets.
So again, I'm not making shit up in the sense that I'm not incentive to tell you that. I don't make shit up like most people that talk about markets. So again, I'm not making shit up in the sense that I'm not trying to tell you the way that the world could or should be.
I'm telling you the way that the P&L is, what the signals are doing, and what they're likely, it's a probability statement,
telling you about the world's economic, again, setup going into the next month and three.
Okay, we're very good at that.
I'm very bad at telling you what's's gonna happen three years from now, right?
Top three things, I can tell you that.
Big signal on the dollar ended up being right alongside oil,
and we'll hit on the Bix.
First, on oil, okay?
So again, if you had inside information,
again, if you had inside information,
I built a robot, an AI robot.
You know how some of you love robots?
AI, Dan Ives, short Dan Ives, right? But if you love AI, use the robot to tell you that that robot knew that this was not going to be a two to three day strike by the U.S., Israel, et cetera.
It was going to be four to five weeks.
And that's why oil wasn't done going up.
Okay?
So put that in your narrative why.
I mean, that's exactly what just happened.
So again, top end of the range up at 77.14.
It's not done yet.
And by the way, like as I showed you yesterday,
this is within the context of the biggest breakout
in all of global macro that used to be bearish.
OK, I don't know if we have that chart again from yesterday,
Jenron, but it doesn't mean it ceases to exist.
It's called a time series.
And when something goes that's big, and I'd say that the other ones are probably bond yields today, which I'll get into.
Actually, let's just get into it right now.
I mean, bond yields, when they're at the top end of the range, you buy bonds.
So today, I'm not going to buy like Mongo.bomb, MDB, whatever software thing.
We're short software.
Well, I don't need to buy that.
I could cover some of it, but I mean,
in bond yield terms, you buy bonds
when bond yields are at what we publish,
which again, it's free week.
See how it says risk range.
And when the bond yields near the top end of the range
for the 10-year yield, which is like 409 or 410 or 411,
if it goes to 412, don't call your mom and cry.
Buy more bonds, okay?
So again, that's what you need to do.
There's no crying in risk management.
You know, I just added TLT,
so this is a very good position for me to be in.
I just added LQD, which is investment grade credit, and TLT.
So that's what we're going to do here,
because again, the market's getting concerned
about what we've already told you about,
which is Quad 3 in oil price terms.
That means that inflation stops going down.
We already had that in our nowcast.
Now, the likelihood for March CPI, guys show our monthly nowcast, to tick up a bit is high and rising.
That's the whole point.
The bond market just told you that.
But the bond market's not telling you about what growth's going to look like in a month.
As you go throughout the month of March, you's going to look like in a month, okay?
As you go throughout the month of March, you're going to get this stagflation to growth.
In other words, growth's going to start to slow again, and then the rate of change of growth, that's the inflation chart.
Instead of bottoming, it's going to tip over.
So again, that's where we're at.
We're coming off like 47-month highs in new orders on the ISM yesterday in the U.S. That's a February number.
March data is going to slow is what, again, the setup would be to be buying bonds.
So again, buy long-term bonds and or their proxies, which would include utility stocks,
if you get them today on sale.
Another big one, of course, would be gold.
Gold absolutely loves down bond yields as opposed to ones that go straight up.
And why is gold correcting today?
Because bond yields are up.
All right, take advantage of it.
Stop complaining.
All right, finally, on the VIX.
Okay, if you're new to this, we have three buckets.
You know, like that old song,
some of you people that are my age and older?
There's a hole in that bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza.
You know that song?
Yeah.
There's a hole, right?
There's a hole in the bucket when you have three buckets and you come out of one bucket
that holds all the water.
Anyone, including a certified monkey in the investable bucket, i.e. when the VIX is below
19, can make money buying dips.
In the CHOP bucket, there's a hole.
Okay?
So now stuff starts to come out of it.
Again, XLK, XLY, look at the sectors.
The top two on that board that I tweeted this morning,
we're short both of them, XLY and XLF.
That stuff doesn't like the chop bucket,
never mind when we're in Quad 3.
And then, of course, there, don't tell,
some of your kids might be at home in Fairfield today
because they canceled school without snow.
We're so soft.
I mean, it's so bad. I woke up to that, too, and I was so soft. I mean, it's so bad.
I woke up to that too and I was like, what?
Yeah, it's softy. So instead of being mad about soft bureaucracies and governments and school
districts, especially in Fairfield County, short Mr. Softy. Microsoft. Reiterating the short on
softies. MSFO, actually we have the ETF on on the short side too.
So when I do do a little double dipping, you know that's a damn good signal and being short
of Microsoft has been great.
But again, the VIX in the chop bucket is not good for Microsoft.
It's not good for any of the bearish trends that we have of the bag seven.
So again, we call them the bag seven because it used to be the mag seven and anything that
goes bearish trend becomes a bag holding.
Okay.
You don't want to be long bags.
You want to be long energy stocks, all right?
And the VIX, you know, could easily go into the mid-tie 20s.
You can see where that arrow is.
That's where Nasdaq volatility is, and the Russell, for that matter.
Again, Nasdaq is a bearish trend.
If the S&P 500 breaks 6801, yesterday, if you watch this for free, like, he said 6799.
This isn't a moving monkey.
It's not a 50-day moving average, okay?
Now, if you're still using those, you may think that the internet is new, okay?
Now, we don't use slide rulers, horse and buggies to get to work.
No, we don't use one-factor moving monkey models, okay?
We use dynamic fractal dimensions, okay?
Look it up.
ChatGPT can give you a teach-in.
Say, hey, what does the guy Mucker over that wrote the book Master of the Market think about these things?
It'll explain it to you nicely.
Actually, that's every question that my own son asks me if I don't have time to answer it because I'm doing my job.
I'll be like, just look it up on ChatGPT.
He'll be like, oh, thanks, man.
He was actually asking me, if you look at the, Jack was, I'm turning Jack into quite the Jedi.
He's like, he gets home from school yesterday. He's like, Dad, are these European gas prices right?
And I'm like, I look at him, I'm like,
like, UK gas is up 109% a week.
German gas up, you know, 34, 35% in a day.
I'm like, I'll be damned, Jack.
You saw something I didn't see today.
But just think about that.
I gave him my, he has my system.
He can look up anything he wants anytime.
And on his lunch break, that was his main question for me.
99% of our clients, institutional clients,
wouldn't have asked me that question.
That doesn't mean that he's brilliant. It just means that he's disciplined and observing the thing that dad built.
Okay? So get there. You know, like, don't ask me what the world's going to be. Just talk about
what is and execute on what is. That signaling process is fractal beauty. All right? Those are
your top three things. Now, again, for those of you new today, appreciate it.
I try to read a book every 10 days.
I've been doing so for going, well, going all the way back to 2008 because I've had time to because I don't have a boss.
And I decided I want to read a lot of books.
I want to learn a lot of things because I'm not that bright.
And I'm smart enough to know that I don't know.
So I maintain that pace and I always cite my reading in the early look.
And that's, you know, this is a recent book written, of course, by the Harvard behavioral professor, Steven Pinker.
And I thought that this is like, some of this stuff,
never mind the title, is the most obvious thing.
Think about how many people are new to markets,
and they're acting on what everybody knows.
And moreover, knowing probably, if they asked even a market
idiot, that when everybody knows that
everybody knows you shouldn't chase that thing or do that thing. Just think of the last 24 hours,
how people have behaved. Here's a good question. Isn't common knowledge common knowledge?
Do you get paid two in 20 to have common knowledge? No. Should you pay anybody to run your money to
get up at seven or eight in the morning reading the papers like Powell does or doing whatever the hell it is?
What is your money manager doing?
I don't know what they're doing.
I can't see what they're doing every day.
You can see what I'm doing.
I'm tweeting at 4.30 to 5 in the morning.
Okay?
I'm not just tweeting things.
I'm showing you numbers that we're looking at.
That's not common knowledge.
So again, I'm trying to make it knowledge that you have that's tangential to your process, which is different. You know, doesn't everyone know and know that they know
that people care about who knows what? So the days of asking, when John Dawson would say,
well, what is Barton Biggs thinking about this at Morgan Stanley? Or even recently before he got,
I don't know if he got canned or what, you know, Mike Romarco
at J.P. Morgan, like, what does he think? Or what did Telecom Tommy over? J.P. Morgan's produced
some real beauties, right? These people that quite, if you really get down to it, their promise is
certainty. It's a crystal ball. They're giving you an answer to the question that you want.
Why do you want that so badly? Why would you want something
that's a lie? Because it's dressed up as the truth? Advertising dollars, getting Kramer rich,
he never got rich off generating alpha. You know, you got rich off you. Clicking on that,
or at least other people. Ad dollars. Why are you paying for that? Why are you engaging in that?
This is not reasonable in the era of AI
and the current market structure of the machine.
So again, that game is so far shot and old and gone
that it could only be capitalized on.
So capitalize on it every day.
Enjoy it, it's a lot of fun.
At a bare minimum, it's entertaining.
And at a maximum, it's
entertaining and you're making money as you are entertained. Are you not entertained yet?
I think that my man Russell Crowe said that. Something like that. Are you not entertained,
Jonesy? Minus 1.8%. So that was the low end of the range. That fell out of bed. So it's 67.56.
Problem with this thing right here is that,
I'll make sure that it's red,
is that it's below 6801, which is trend.
Long time Hedgeye subscribers know
that anytime a trend breaks, that is a bad thing.
The first thing that actually happens is a lower high.
So when you get to 69, what is it, 68 or nine in my notebook, I tell you, it's been a long couple days.
You know, 69.45.
69.45.
So that's a lower high.
There are three things that create a topping process.
So instead of being, and again, all due respect to my friends Doug and Bill and all those people out there that have been trying to call tops for a while now,
there are three checkpoints on a topping process. One, it makes a lower high. It
loses its immediate term trade momentum. Two, it breaks hedge eyes, immediate term trade, signal
level of support, which only I have on my desktop, and Jack McCullough. I don't even give it to
Jonesy, right? Right. Right? That's correct. You wonder why that 18-year-old's getting not so bad at this.
Right?
And then you get the trend breakdown.
By the time this happens, you're pretty much fucked.
Okay?
Ask anybody who's bag-held Bitcoin every time it breaks trend.
And moreover, anybody, when that reverses, so again, the reversal of that, so again, it's all math and rules-based.
Again, it's all math and rules based.
I want to see if Bitcoin, you want to, what's the catalyst for Bitcoin to go up?
I wanna see if Bitcoin, you wanna,
what's the catalyst for Bitcoin to go up?
Well, it definitely wasn't Yale hockey alum Jamie Lavish
talking about it last night at 69,000
and everybody else who's permanently bullish on it.
No, no, no.
That was signal.
They all get bullish at the top end of the range.
That's where it was yesterday.
The top end of the range,
right after I took Boomer for a walk,
was being registered for Bitcoin. 69301 is the number, right around it. They all started talking,
oh, it could be different. Hey, Bitcoin does, you know, if anybody knows Bitcoin does crazy things,
it's like you're still bag holding it and you're hoping. That's what happened. The real signal for
Bitcoin that we've had historically, and you can look back at, you know, we'll go long it.
We've been long it plenty of times.
Is that it makes a higher low, not a lower high.
Then it goes bullish on its trade and goes bullish on its trend.
So this is no longer red, it goes green.
By the time it's bullish trend, the thing's already going to be up, you know, maybe not a ton, but enough.
And it's okay to be a little
bit late. But in my line of work, it is not okay to be really early. Really early is called being
wrong. And then you get into the whole intellectual exercise. So then you go back on Twitter and
you'll see all these people tweeting, oh, but, oh, oh. Like, there's nothing that made Marco
right today that he was bitching and complaining about
three to six months ago.
Zero.
Right?
No process in that.
You're just jumping from talking point to talking point.
Oh, you thought it was a bubble.
Great.
You know, and I thought, you know,
I thought my uncle was my aunt.
I mean, doesn't matter.
Doesn't matter.
Slow it down here a bit.
Sector, volume yesterday was up because, you know, it was a pretty volatile day.
It doesn't have to be up, but it was up on a down move for 7 out of 11 sectors.
Again, we got paid on the short side nicely, again, which I've already said multiple times.
And again, we're along the number one thing that went up, which is energy, obviously.
Move index, so you still have treasury bond market volatility in play on an immediate-term trade basis.
If the move index gets above 78,
it goes bullish on a trending basis.
Now that would be very bearish
for buying something like TLT potentially.
And the word potentially is used very specifically
because it may not be, okay?
So again, the play here is to buy the TLT.
I've said it enough times.
I'm not gonna put the Tizzle tattoo on my back.
I think back in 2016, people were asking me to do that.
You know, I've had a long relationship with these tickers.
Sometimes we're in love.
Sometimes we're nowhere near each other.
And sometimes I'm short of them.
Right?
I think, what is it?
May my lovers and haters never meet?
Exactly.
Or is that yours?
That's my saying.
It's a good one though.
Is it?
Is it?
Yeah.
Do you find practical, like, is it practical?
Yeah.
Do you find practical, like, is it practical? Yep.
Yep.
What happens when they meet?
Sometimes it happens at college reunions, and it's not good.
Oh, Jonesy buds.
All right, tier one alpha data, let's knock it down.
Again, coming into this, was gamma positive or negative?
Oh, I can't believe the future's closed up on the day.
Do you know that Scott Bessent has the PTP,
like, on the joystick?
Is anybody talking about that yet, by the way?
Like, yeah, the PTP, the plunge protection team?
You got, like, a guy who actually knows
what he's doing with that joystick now.
Okay, oh, so it went down a lot yesterday and then went up a lot intraday.
That's what negative gamma is.
It goes down a lot faster and on the bounces it bounces faster and then when it goes down
again it goes down a lot faster.
Got that?
You get gamma.
You get it.
You don't have to say, I don't get on this tier 1 alpha thing.
If you can't understand what I just said, you don't deserve to play at the highest level.
That's it. It's okay, you can play double A.
I talked to a parent about this yesterday, it's fine.
Kid's a great kid.
Anyway, moving along,
GVT minus four, 10 day realized vols, 10.6.
You should know what these numbers are.
That can and will move out to the left today.
Moving left on that chart, again,
you don't have to know math,
you do not have to know markets,
you just need to know when Mucker says
that that is moving to the left because Craig,
Captain Craig, who flies with me, again, you know, we fly in the same plane.
Captain Craig says that that is going to be when it moves to the left, it's bad, and when
it moves to the right, it's less bad.
And when it moves all the way over to the right, it's really good.
Got it?
Yeah, you can follow that.
Okay, what else we got going on for you this morning?
Short-term calendar roll actually came down.
So the setup was for a big sell-off today after an interesting intraday bounce.
Again, when the market was on its lows in the morning, I was covering,
and in some cases buying.
I got more shorts than longs in real-time alerts after a good run.
We've had 18 booked wins in a row.
Some people went, oh, but look at some of these gains.
They're not that much.
Well, it's better than losses.
I mean, last I checked, I, for the life of me,
I mean, Laura gives me shit about, like,
the amount of trades I do every year
because she does our taxes.
But I am like, Laura, we've never gone broke booking gains.
Then we're talking about an environment,
18 straight real-time alert signals being correct, i.e. we didn't lose money. That's how I define being correct. And sometimes they
made more than they made in other cases. But that's an environment where people got their
ass handed to them. That's pretty good. It's called hedge-eye risk management, okay? So that part is
the one thing that you can't get from anyone else going back to 2008. There's no other firm that has told you that the market is about to crash and will continue to crash.
Not because Nostradamus or Nostra-fucking-Mucardamus or something like that.
It's because the signaling process has me there and Quad 4.
We're not quite in Quad 4, but we do have a quarterly Quad 4 coming up in Q2.
We'll have to see about the depth about that.
Could World War III potentially change it?
Of course it could.
Will it?
Is today the day to determine that?
I don't know.
Pick your pony, baby.
Pick your positions.
How about the impact table?
When the three stocks that are leading the rally intraday are three shorts,
NVIDIA, Microsoft, Palantir, all bearish trend.
Unless NVIDIA gets above 185, it all bearish trend. Unless NVIDIA gets
above 185, it's bearish trend. Actually, it's 186 now. NVIDIA traded, like yesterday, you can just
follow the crowd. NVIDIA traded over 235,000 contracts on the 185 calls. Those expire on
Friday. There's so many people. There have never been more people that don't know what the fuck
they're doing other than gambling.
And if you call it that, they get all upset.
Their faith-based belief system breaks down, they have a meltdown.
But when you're buying weekly calls and daily, you know, zero days to expiration calls and
puts, that's gambling, right?
So understand that's part of market structure.
But what go up, but doesn't go above the threshold,
185 on those calls, go down.
Watch out, watch NVIDIA.
Most important stock to watch most days today
would be one of those days.
Okay, what else we got going on for you this morning?
In Asia, last night, buying opportunity in Japan.
I didn't hit the button on that.
I could do that in real time, Lord.
So again, first immediate-term trade oversold signal we've had in Japan. First down day for
China off a three-month high. I just, with a client call, he's like, well, how is that possible?
I said, well, look at the quad map. We review it every day on, pretty much, guys show them one more
time, the quad map. China's like coming out of a recession. They're going to take care of their
own. They have some quad ones and twos coming. And the question was, well, don't you think that
if everything else breaks down that it should break down? I'm like, no. A former me might have.
I mean, if you're asking me what I think could or should happen, which goes back to the point
that I don't want to be, yeah, that could happen. What if it doesn't? Well, then you lose money.
Okay. So what if China is part of a new world order that you don't want or can't understand Yeah, that could happen. What if it doesn't? Well, then you lose money, okay?
So what if China is part of a new world order that you don't want or can't understand
or any of the above or none of it?
If it's bullish trend, it's bullish trend.
That's the answer.
And if it's bullish trend going into a quad
that would be a pro-Chinese equity quad,
then you buy the dips.
So today's a dip.
Maybe you're going to see that added
to the asset allocation model.
I don't own China, but I'm definitely not shorted here.
We'll have to see about that.
India could get curbed.
Its local index, the BSE SENSEC, broke trend last night.
We are short of Indonesia, which was down to 4% as well.
So again, I could be just outright short there between Indonesia and India,
as opposed to having a long and short just FYI.
Thailand got spanked.
We talked about South Korea briefly,
and that's all it requires.
What else we got going on for you?
The DAX broke trend?
I was gonna ask you about Europe.
Holy shit.
Part of it's this big move in Banyuls.
The Germans don't like that.
The Germans don't have really much growth to talk of.
But could this spread into different parts of Europe?
Could Russia take advantage of it?
Who's the biggest winner
if you had to pick a country on an oil price going up?
I wouldn't say Russia's not on that list.
If the price of oil is at 65 Brent or 85 Brent, the Ruskies make a lot of money on that.
Yep.
All right.
Pay attention.
You don't know what the world's going to be.
Are you kidding me?
You need to read some newsletters to think about that? Or does that just intrigue you?
Hey, Keith, you should read this. No, thanks. I'll read a book, but I'm not going to read some
toilet paper about what the world's going to look like in three weeks. No. Nobody knows.
And when everyone knows that Trump was going to do what he did or that the US was going
to do what they did, it's already in the market price and we front ran it by a month.
We bought oil stocks on February the 2nd.
Today is March the 3rd.
That's what we got without having to be smart.
What else we got going on for you this morning?
Gold just doing what it does, trading in the risk range.
On up-on yield days, gold will typically correct.
That's what you're getting.
The all-time high is still at the top end of the range for gold.
Copper is signaling lower highs.
That could be a bigger, more meaningful thing that could break down,
but it hasn't yet.
It just came off an overbought signal last week.
Don't forget that copper was up, well, I don't have to say what I think it was up.
It was up 3.8% last week.
There are plenty of things in agriculture that are breaking out.
That's relatively new.
The two things that were bearish trend for most of last year are now bullish trend.
Oil and egg.
Energy and egg.
Not natural gas.
Oil and related energy equities and egg.
Okay?
So corn. The ticker's corn.
These were our shorts, C-O-Y-B, soybeans.
Wheat, W-E-A-T, that's not how you spell wheat, that's the ticker.
Okay, sugar cane was one of my best shorts last year.
I just covered the whole thing.
Fuck it.
I don't like to eat a lot of sugar.
I kind of do, you can see that, right?
Like ice cream.
But my chubby Irish cheeks don't care about what I like to eat a lot of sugar. I kind of do. You can see that, right? Like ice cream. But my chubby Irish cheeks don't care about what I like to eat.
The ticker has got to be bearish trend,
and it's teetering on a bullish trend breakout.
So that's what I think about sugar.
Who else is helping you trade sugar?
Why don't you trade sugar and water,
but you believe everything in AI and Dan Ives?
I mean, what are you, an idiot?
I mean, come on.
What has got a longer shelf life?
You hate to ask these common sense questions, but when common sense becomes common sense, like, what is it?
Anyway, moving along.
U.S. dollar, that's the biggest signal of the day,
again, confirming the bullish trend signal,
which therefore confirms the bearish trend breakdown signal in the euro.
And that's a huge move. A lot of currency hedge funds are blowing up today because they didn't
listen to Hedgeye and they get mad at me when these things flip. They're like, you're too short
term. Okay. You're too long term then, I guess. I mean, you're going to sell today, which is short
term. Deal with it. All right. Bitcoin already talked about that. Let's take some questions.
Okay. You actually hit on a lot today.
Most of my questions, but since we have some new viewers today,
I actually wanted to ask a slightly different question.
You mentioned yesterday, intraday, you're covering shorts, maybe buying some longs.
Can you just sort of walk through that process, kind of what you're watching, what you're
Can you just sort of walk through that process?
thinking about, what signals are flashing to you when you do that?
Yeah.
First, let's just review what I did yesterday.
I mean, if you go back, well, what I said was in the morning when stocks were down,
I was-
In the morning.
But by the close, I was shorting things again.
But I covered like-
More that morning.
For example, I mean, yesterday, the two big-
So I covered Expedia in the morning.
It's a travel stock.
No shit, a travel stock's down when everything's down.
It's going to be down again today, probably.
And if it's not, it's not.
It doesn't matter.
The point is that when shorts are down, you cover some.
Okay, when you think about running a long short book,
now many of you just want long only ETF, that's great.
There's a thing called Portfolio Solutions,
which is my long only retirement account.
If that's all you want,
and that's all you can have the attention span for,
totally cool.
I got no problem with that, that's awesome.
That's actually our most valuable product,
not surprisingly.
Long only retirement account, of course. Our top product I think sells for 55,000. If you can't afford that, then we're not really
talking about a lot of money anyway. I'm not downplaying that to anyone. If you don't have
money, you can blame your local government for that, both Republicans and Democrats and the Fed.
OK? Or just that you're a lazy ass that hasn't got off your ass and done anything, which all of the
above would apply. So again, if you do have like
some money, that is far less than the asset management fee that people are charging you
inside of real money. Okay. So again, that's, if you want that, you got that. If you want to learn
how to run long short, you got to start to think about this as just inventory, units of inventory.
Okay. So if we have on the short side, we have Expedia yesterday, and on the long side,
we have EIS. That's long what? Israel. All right. So Israel, I actually had it a 4% position yesterday.
Expedia, that would be like mid-range for me. Top position on a short, it would be 3%,
so that'd be like 2%. So what would you do? So market opens down quite a bit. This was actually up six percent
on the day. That was an easy one. So you saw me in real time alerts sell some Israel because it
was up six percent. This is a country. This is one of the biggest one day moves I've ever,
well, certainly I've ever had in being long Israel. And that's OK. That's my own journey,
I guess people call it. He's on his own journey. Yeah, sold some Israel, right?
So I took this position actually down by 100, I think 100 or 150 basis points, so whatever.
The position goes down.
Minus 100 basis points is 1%, it would be 3%.
I think it's more at 2.5%, okay?
So let's say I took it down to 2.5% by the close, because I think I sold another 50 basis
points, and it closes them up.
So the best day I've ever had in Israel. Let's book some more games. Great.
And by the way, if somebody on CNBC had that call,
they would parade them around like a peacock
on the peacock network saying, what a call.
It's not a call.
It's the signal got me involved.
I had no idea it was going to do that.
And in a million years, I wouldn't have guessed
that it was going to do that on a day like
yesterday, given what was going on in the world.
So get over yourself, right?
So this, this thing would be cover 50 to 100 basis points.
My minimum position on a short is 1%.
My max is three.
So I cover 100 basis points here.
I sell 100 basis points here.
Let's keep the example at this just just for again there there are
timestamps we can get down to the 50 basis point differentials. So I sell 100 basis points here
minus 100 basis points 100 beeps and I cover 100 basis points here okay so 100 beeps that's a buy
order when you cover something 100 basis points. This is a minus. This is a plus.
My net position didn't change. All I did was book gains.
Okay? What I'm trying to do, Jonesy and Real-Time Alerts, is teach people how to run money.
Right? When I first started, I was just like throwing up all the darts.
My batting average is better today than it's ever been, but it was pretty high. I mean, in 2008, it was very high. So when I started showing these things because I was dumb enough to do it, I'm like, fuck it.
You know, nobody else on TV shows a timestamp. Let's just do it. I show my account every day now.
I mean, it's so again, in real time, that's what you saw. Then let's finish the example.
So into the close,
after the market had gone, you know, broadly green, what was the last thing I did yesterday?
Did I buy or sell something? Market goes up. If the market goes down,
this market went down, I cover some short. This one's straight up, so I sold some.
If the market intraday goes up and a stock that I want to be short goes up, what did I do?
I shorted it.
SPGI.
So instead, now today, SPGI, S&P Global, you talk about, we don't even, oh, you want the thesis?
It's S&P Global.
S&P ratings?
Like, really?
People still use those?
Are they, I mean, okay.
We know what the bear case is.
But even if it still was that, and it was signaling bullish trend, I wouldn't short it.
But A, it's at the top end of its range.
B, it's still signaling bearish trend.
And C, it's in the sector, one of the best sectors to be short, which is financials.
Right?
So now you're thinking like a portfolio manager.
So now, again, I'd be looking across the board.
Josh Steiner, I think, has 16 or 20 different short ideas on the financial side.
Pick your favorite short.
Yesterday, that was mine in the financials.
Doesn't mean it's my highest conviction.
I need to get on with Bill Ackman and make sure that everybody has my pitch book before I get on and push it or pump it.
No. No. That's not how conviction works anymore. That's a game. He played that game and played a
lot of people with that game. That's not a game I need to play. No, no. I play a game of inventory.
I'm an inventory manager. Did you think it was going to take me a while to go through all that?
You got some follow-up questions on that? No, I think we're into overtime, into overtime so we're gonna wrap it up there for everybody you don't have one more question for
me nope give it give it give me some time back let me let me just say uh at the end here uh there
are some things i don't hit on in the notebook okay did we hit on uh besant ptp yep yeah okay
got that just want to make sure people know that we We hit on Mongo.bomb, MDB.
This software blow up.
Let's finish on this one.
Keith, what do you think software does from here?
One I don't know, but I'm currently shorted.
That's how I'd answer the question.
What I think that my signal saying is that software is going to continue lower.
Oh, but this is extended on the long side. You know, the oil stocks last, I think it was getting, I think I had signal saying is that software is going to continue lower. Oh, but this is extended on the long side.
You know, the oil stocks last, I think it was getting,
I think I had eight or nine questions from hedge funds a week and a half or two weeks ago.
Well, don't you think that Exxon or oil and gas stocks, XOP, are extended against software?
Like my signal would say, yeah, probably, what, for like a day or two?
Or are we talking about like two weeks?
Like a lot of hedge funds have a holding period of like two days.
But, you know, those kinds of questions, the answer was on any dip, I'm buying XOP and
I'm going to short on any rally software stocks.
Because software stocks are doing, you can get people, oh, it's this, it's the multiple, it's the AI, it's the baby with the bathwater.
Bullshit.
Mongo.bomb today is 100%, again, 100% confirming one reality that matters more than anything else to a short seller or somebody who understands how to manage risk of a long.
The rate of change.
The rock.
The rate of change of revenue growth slowed.
It was supposed to accelerate.
When it slows, stock goes down if it's a growth stock.
Okay?
That's it.
That's what happened.
You know, all that other stuff is just noise
and whining and complaining and excuse making.
The amount of stocks that people on CNBC, Bloomberg and everywhere else where you're getting your
information, if this is free for you today because you can't afford to pay for it, I totally hear for
you. I feel for you, man. You know, I built this place for the people. You know, all that shit that
they have you stuck in that peaked in October of 2025
is doing exactly what it should have done.
If the revenue is slow, the stock should go down. If the revenues accelerate,
like an oil company or a gold company,
the stock should and did go up.
That's the process.
We're sticking to it.
All right.
Thanks everybody for tuning in.
Back at it tomorrow at 9 a.m.
Thank you, Darrell.
Good morning everybody from the control room. I'm producer Eric Gendron. Thank you, Daryl. Good morning, everybody from the control room.
I'm producer Eric Gendron.
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