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The ONLY Crypto Death Cross Strategy You Need! [And What Will Happen Next]
Recorded: April 1, 2025 Duration: 0:36:47Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is experiencing a decline, with significant drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices and low trading volumes. Trends indicate a strong correlation between crypto and traditional markets, with Bitcoin and the S&P 500 serving as key indicators. The market is characterized by a downtrend, with potential for further declines if key support levels are breached. Traders are advised to remain cautious and consider both long and short opportunities.
Full Transcription
sitting at $83,000 and you're seeing a little bit more green across the board as the market
does bounce. But is it just going to be a dead cat bounce? That's the question, right? We're
going to have a look at that today because we do have death crosses looming across the board.
And in actual fact, on some of the at least indices or indexes, we've seen that death cross
already take place on the likes, for example total three and others so let's get straight into
the show content smash the like button hit the bell notification and subscribe to the channel
if you're not already subscribed if you look at banter bubbles uh this is what i'm talking about
double digit gains right but this is uh you know part of the course when you do get um these relief
rallies they can be extreme and i would say this is absolutely nothing. I wouldn't even be surprised to see relief rallies in the region of triple digit gains on some of these
altcoins. You really need to see breaks of structure and for high levels to be reclaimed.
And you want to look to Bitcoin as essentially your north star for the crypto market and to give
you a directional bias, because it's very, very very very rare that you'll see bitcoin going
down while the rest of the altcoins move towards the upside um i can only think of one time that's
actually ever happened where bitcoin had already topped and then the altcoins went on to have an
altcoin season and that was in 2017 and it was very short-lived only last for about two or three
weeks once the bitcoin top was in every other cycle, at least according to my analysis,
has been met with both the Bitcoin
and the altcoin top simultaneously,
which is why you wanna be really, really careful
playing the altcoins as if it's gonna be a laggard, right?
You wanna play the leaders and not the laggard.
So the death cross, right, is looming.
The cross between the 50 and 200 MA or EMA,
you know, there's slight variations
between the MAs and EMAs, but nevertheless, the 50 and 200 MA or EMA, you know, there's slight variations between the MAs and EMAs.
But nevertheless, the 50 and 200 cross on the daily, it is coming, right?
It is coming.
Bitcoin would probably need to rally towards about, you know, $95,000 and hold that level to avoid this death cross on the daily timeframe.
We'll talk about what that means, where price is most likely to go next, and the strategy that you can use to play that, right?
where price is most likely to go next, and the strategy that you can use to play that, right?
If you look at the at least total cryptocurrency market cap, total two, this is looking at the
total cryptocurrency market cap minus Bitcoin, you can see we've already got the death cross,
right? If we look at total three, which is removing Bitcoin and Ethereum, this one is also
about to cross, right? So you can say that maybe total two has already crossed towards the downside
because of the massive bearishness
that we've seen within specifically Ethereum
and how poorly it's performed.
And then if we look at others,
others has also already had its death cross
and it's actually bounced already into that
and rejected off of the 50.
So we'll talk about this in today's show.
We have had the week,
or we got the monthly close, the quarterly close.
So we have a lot of new information which we can look at.
Volumes are still relatively low.
Remember, we've been tracking this chart over here, which shows the seven-day daily exchange volume,
which pretty much is still just trending towards the downside, right?
There's been no real movements over there.
And the last 24 hours of liquidations are still hovering around
that 200 million every single day which is very low right it shows that um there's not much money
left in the market uh pretty much it's only the true d dgens and speculators and it makes it a
player versus player game which means that any of the pumps that you're seeing within certain coins
so you know if you look at this uh while up 25%, you have EOS up 17.
This is just a rotational game.
There's no new money that's coming into the market yet.
And that's something that you do need to be aware of, right?
So we're expecting for a major shift
to occur within the market.
We need to see a massive spike up over here in price,
either to the upside or the downside,
but we need to see big volatility
creating a mass series of liquidations. And remember, that can be a short squeeze
or a long squeeze. But those huge liquidations, when you see a 24-hour
erect scale suggesting that you're looking at about $750 to $1 billion worth of liquidations,
that shows you that there's a major pivot point in the market and a transition that's taking place.
So if we did see a big pump up and prices reclaim certain levels,
most notably around that $92,000, $94,000 region on a closing basis,
and then we got at least a short squeeze where short traders got liquidated in the region of $750 to $1 billion,
that would be a major telling sign that maybe bulls are ready to take over.
Until that happens, you know,
treat it as a downtrend, which is what it is.
And you can see over here,
if we look at the quarterly closes on both BTC and ETH,
that is officially in 11.8% down for Bitcoin,
45.41%, really significant, right?
If you look at all these ETH returns,
look at all the red quarters historically, right? If you look at all these Ether returns, look at all the red
quarters historically, right? This is actually one of the worst quarters that Ether has ever seen.
So if it is going to turn green, you'd want to see that do something like that very, very,
very soon. And we'll talk about the possibility of a short squeeze in just a moment, right? Now,
there are some inherently bearish signals which again take
time to unfold because these are high time frames i simply just wanted to outline over here um you
know you've got your weekly macd which is red you've got the two week which is red you got the
three week which is now officially turned red and if you actually look at this um you know you do
get a false signal occasionally but for the most part once this is turned red you do actually go
into a bearish market right so you've got a false signal over here back in 2021 which is very similar to
what we're seeing now macd turned red price found support on the 21 uh exponential moving average
on a three-week scale over here led to the first bounce set in a double top and then the second
time that it crossed and you lost that moving average uh on the 21 on the three-week scale you led into a bear market right and now you've got that cross again this is the second time that it crossed and you lost that moving average on the 21 on the three
week scale you led into a bear market right and now you've got that cross again this is the second
time similar to 2021 similar at least readings with the bearish divergences as well across various
different time frames so i think there'll be a major warning sign if you do start to close high
time frame candles underneath that major support that will be significant if you go to the monthly the monthly hasn't yet crossed but it's getting very very close right remember the
last time the monthly crossed towards the downside over here that was essentially leading into your
bear market you went to you went into about nine uh to twelve months of downside depending on which
point you're measuring it from but give or take a year of downside price action. So this is what you need to be very,
very cautious of, right? You got all of this in combination with these death crosses between the
50 and 200 on various different timeframes. So in today's session, we're going to go through how
you can best play this and what you should do. How do you take advantage of this and how do you
protect yourself? We'll get into that in a moment, right? Still calling for downside over here on this chart.
This is still much more bearish than it is bullish,
despite the wicks that started to form over here
on the five day chart.
You can see yesterday's five day close,
which closed that five day candle
was very, very, very bearish, right?
Which indicates that within the next five days,
you could easily see another follow through candle
towards the downside over there. If we do get that follow-through towards the downside, we want to see how price
reacts off of these support levels. And that's how it's going to line up with this death cross,
which we're going to talk about again in just a moment. If we do get that on extreme negative
funding, as we've discussed, it does create the possibility that if it is still a bull market,
that becomes a major buy-the-d to fcx usdc dpeg
and the yen cash and carry trade unwind which took place right we do have a swell of liquidations
towards the upside where if we do sell off and we find support eventually i do think you're going to
come for this liquidity which currently is situated at 88 000 now taking that liquidity at
88 000 but failing to close above that level would theoretically still be a bearish signal right so if in the shorter
term we see a squeeze up to this and it's met with a massive wick and basically uh sellers step in
and continue to close price below that 88k region this is therefore still a bearish signal right
there is always a possibility for that short squeeze. Why? Well, due to two
reasons. Number one, we have that very, very low volume and we haven't seen any sort of massive
squeezes on both the long and the short side for quite some time. That's one reason, right,
with that low volume. And the second reason is that if you look at our liquidation belters over
here, which we drop in the Whale Room Discord, well, you can see it's pretty negative across
the board, right? Which means that sellers are trying
to dominate price action.
And consequently, in a low volume,
low liquidity environment,
sometimes a market maker will come
and take the side where the liquidity is the highest.
And the most pain will be caused
by actually taking out those short traders
in the short term, right?
Again, don't muddle up the various different timeframes.
That is in the short term.
All right, so let's continue.
Let's continue on over here.
We'll skip that chart for now.
Price right now is below all those moving averages.
We do have the bare moon, which is in play.
And ultimately, it's still bearish.
And this is kind of your next line in the sand.
We covered this yesterday.
We said give it a little bit more time to play out. But that was that was our validation zone right we wanted to see if you want to get bullish again
we wanted to see price push up and reclaim the pink box right that was the validation zone or
invalidation if you're bearish right and the new zone that we can start to look at again it's a
little bit preemptive to call this but i think think if you're treating this as your next lower high, which you've got one, two, three, four, five candles that rejected from there and led to the downside move, you're looking at the very, very least to sit forward in your seat and gain interest in possibly the market shifting direction.
You would need to see that move above here, right?
So if you do get a short squeeze and price can push up and hold above that 88K level,
that starts to become a little bit promising,
but for now, I still wanna leave this as the key level,
right?
Pending a change into this becoming the next key level,
but it's a bit too soon, right?
This could still be, you know,
intro week chop that's playing out over here.
So I don't wanna call it yet,
but at least I'll pay attention
if you can get above that pink box, which is 88K, right? And it's interesting because it lines up with this,
right? There it is. Look, that's where your liquidations are, right above that level. You
could see in the short term a spike up there, but don't get trapped. That's the key thing. Don't get
trapped, right? High volume still in play over here. Downtrend, lower lows and lower highs is
the name of the game. It is still bearish in that regard now similar to the validation or invalidation depending on bearish or bullish we have the
same thing on the usdt dominance chart which i would have said before you know you need to break
down this level for the usdt dominance to be bearish meaning it's going to trend further down
towards low levels and that will create an upside move in the crypto market i would like to now raise that bar to this region over here because
then you'll be breaking this upsloping channel as well the low boundary of that channel so we want
to see a break below that right if you see the usdt dominance doing something like this i would
expect that simultaneously because these trade these charts trade inverse to one another. So if
we do see that on the USDT dominance, then you probably see Bitcoin price pushing up like this
and reclaiming probably in the form of a short squeeze, at which point, you know, then maybe
that starts to look like a little bit of, we had a low or a lower low over there. And then we put
in our first high low. It also looks a little
bit like an inverse head and shoulders. And then you're starting to reclaim those levels. So that's
kind of what we're watching for over here. But we still have to treat this as a downtrend until
such time as something like that happens. That would be the earliest point at which you're
looking to trade in the opposite direction as opposed to trading the short side. You're then
looking to trade the upside. So I would actually
like to know your thoughts before we get into the whole death cross scenario over here. I'd like to
know your thoughts by going through to the poll section over here. How seriously are you going
to be taking this death cross? Do you think it's a bear trap? So bulls will take control again?
Or do you think it's very serious? It shouldn't be ignored, prices are gonna go much lower
or are you just not sure?
You're winging it, right?
You're just seeing how things go.
Let me know in the comments.
So a bear trap would mean
that it shifts everybody into a bearish mindset
because the death cross comes into play.
They sell their coins for price to only spike higher
and continue the bull run.
If you think that's the case,
click on the first one.
If you think it's very serious
because we're gonna reject off it and go lower, then click the second one. I wanna see what the audience run. If you think that's the case, click on the first one. If you think it's very serious because we're going to reject off it and go lower, then click the second one. I want to see
what the audience thinks. So far, only 638 of you have voted. Go through to the comment section
over there. Click on that vote and we'll tally that up in there. Now, let me share my thoughts.
This is what I think, right? Okay. Historically, and this works across most timeframes, right?
Okay, historically, and this works across most timeframes, right?
Historically, what you tend to see is, you know,
price is hovering somewhere down here,
and you have these crosses about to take place, right?
So you have, let's say, a moving average over there.
That's the 200 moving average.
And then you have, or the 200 is usually trending slightly towards the upside.
And then you have the 50, which is trending towards the downside.
Now, usually what happens is the point where that cross takes place, right? So it's going to cross over
here. Inevitably, a nest price runs above $95,000. You're going to see the Bitcoin death cross.
As that cross happens, most of the time, you get a pretty sizable rally directly into that cross.
Now, this is the important part. This is where you want to check it right if that happens and price rallies
into that cross and it rejects that becomes a very very bearish signal right if it rallies
straight through it and reclaims it then this is sometimes what you see right 200 moving average
is moving up um you have price rallying like this and you have the 50 which is coming down
if price rallies through it reclaims the 200 like that holds it then usually
that is where your fake cuts come into play right and then the 50 reclaims the 200 and soon after
that you get a golden cross and price rallies towards the upside but the problem is this
the problem is as we've covered over here you know you have these high time frame signals which are
about to cross towards the downside now from my experience within the crypto markets, what we've seen is that the first death cross is usually the
fake out one, right? That's the one that's there to shake you out of your positions for price to
only reclaim and run higher. But usually after the second, third, fourth one, that becomes a little
bit more serious and significant. So if we look over here, for example, this was within this cycle over here,
this was the first one, right?
This was the first one that we had.
Price reclaimed, you got the bull cross,
everything ran up, was looking all hunky-dory and wonderful.
And then you got the death cross over here.
As you can see, as the death cross takes place, right?
Price is hanging around here,
which tells you inevitably you're gonna get the death cross.
Price rallies into it, reclaims, and that was your fake out. That's the shakeout one. And price accelerates
towards the upside. And there it is, right? We came very close to creating a death cross over
there, but it didn't yet happen. And then we rallied up. But now this would be the first one
that is happening after such an extended move, which means you probably have to take this one
a little bit more seriously. So how do you play this move? What exactly should you be doing? The way that I'd be treating this
and the way that I am treating this is as such, right? If price makes its way down into these
lower regions, which we've been looking for, and we're looking for sharp correction, you know,
or a further correction down into that 68 to 72k region, anywhere around there into that fair value
gap, where's the fair value gap taken
from? It's taken from this candle over here, right? This big abnormal candle that at least
sent price towards the upside. We're looking for price to revert into that zone, which is also
a clear SR flip region, which lines up. It's got a lot of confluence, right? You've got your
upsloping trend line over here. Let zoom out so let's just quickly extend this
you got your upsloping trend line over here support support support so that's touch point
number one you got touch point number two with a strong horizontal and then we have a third
confident factor which is the fair value gap so it lines up as a beautiful area to buy the dip
so even if the death cross should be taken seriously as i've been mentioning throughout
the last couple of streams,
I would still be looking to take advantage of that
and buy the dip over here with the expectation
that price is going to rally into this death cross anyway.
Then the question is, this creates a big move, right?
Let's quickly pull out our risk to reward tool
and it would look something like this.
So if you do get the move, you know, you could easily trade this.
You'll find your invalidation based on the swing failure pattern. But this could easily be a
tradable move, even if it's a worst case scenario, whereby you're going to get let's make a nice and
big for you to see exactly the numbers on screen, where you're getting a 16 to 17% move, right.
And then if that death cross occurs, and this is the one that we do have to take seriously, which I do believe it is, by the way, then you would expect and see a rejection from that level. And that rejection would probably break the camel's back, as they say, and you would then follow through in time, the MACDs on the monthly start to cross towards the downside.
Remember, three weeks already crossed.
And when we've seen this occur for the second time from such a height, we know ultimately
we're going into a bear market.
So I know probably not the best news that you want, but it's still tradable, right?
It definitely is still tradable.
So that's what I'd be looking at.
And the way that I treat this is I always try and take the trade with the hopes that
it can position into a new swing trade and that the bull market continues.
But remember, hope is not a great strategy when it comes to these markets and making
money.
So you come with a trade plan, you risk X amount with a stop loss in mind to gain a
certain amount.
How high it goes, we'll have to reevaluate as price unfolds. And if it runs through
those levels, right? So let's say we fall through, we come down into 72k support, we hold this price
rally straight through, am I going to close the position? No. You know, ultimately, I'm fluid in
my decision making over here, I'm fluid. My only plan is to take the trade over here with a stop loss below
and then i'll let the market do the talking if price rallies through this level of course i'm
going to maintain that bitcoin long position and continue to hold that with the hopes that
we've broken structure we form high lows and we continue the bull run and then it's playing out
very very similar to what we saw all the way back here when in August, price went down. August of last year, price went down to $49,000. And then following that dip,
how far did we run? A massive 122%, right? I'd be very, very, very happy to see something like
that. But I think that this is something we do have to consider and we do have to take quite
seriously, right? So that's at least the plan with regards to this death cross and what's taking place over here.
And I do think the fact that if you look at some of these other timeframes or the other charts, right, you can see on total you're already getting the death cross.
The death cross is already taking place, right?
So expect that there will be a rally into that.
People are going to get very very excited let's say you rally from here into the death cross that's going to be a seven percent move on the
total cryptocurrency market cap let's look at total two you know this one's already crossed
was that the rally that already could have been the rally and rejection um where do you start to
get excited again on total two well if total two can start to reclaim again some of these breakdown
levels this is the most conservative level to reclaim, meaning this is your safest entry point where
you can say that high probability bulls are taking back control if you can get above that
level.
Alternatively, if you want to be really aggressive on your take, then you can treat this as maybe
the last lower high.
So your aim is to break that lower high structure, right?
You can see the downsloping trend line and you've got a lower high. So your aim is to break that lower high structure, right? You can see the downsloping trend line, and you got a lower high. And this is your lower high, which means you want
to create both a higher low and a higher high, which means if you're aggressive, you're treating
it as that. But in my experience, you're always looking for the more conservative take. Rather be
a little bit late to the party than too early and you get absolutely rinsed, right?
That's my take.
So this is the safe zone.
Get back above there,
above giving you the exact number, 1.23 trillion.
That will be really, really good
because you're also contending
with a struggling stock market, right?
The stock market is also starting to come down.
So there it is, total three, same thing.
A rally into that death cross
over here and a rejection would be you need to recover this breakdown points at 833.4 billion.
And that's pretty much right where the death cross is going to take place, which is only about
5.74% away, right? So if you reject into that, you know, it's not going to be looking good. So
we can actually go back to the prior times and here it was right
so you got the death cross over here you can see as the death cross took place price rallies into
it rejects comes down you did actually temporarily reclaim that and this was a big trap over here
creating a shakeout and then it pretty much just governs price all the way down right um have you
had any other ones within this chart here you got you got your first one, which was the fake out. There you go. That was your shakeout period, similar to Bitcoin on total
three rallies up. This would be your next one, which seems real, right? You know, as per over
here, you know, the trend is your friend. The trend is your friend till the end. So stick with
the trend as Mark says over there in the chat. Total, excuse me, others.
Let's have a look at others over here.
And then I also want to have a look at the stock market.
So you can see others, you know, you've got your fake out over here, price reclaims,
and then ultimately just governs that trend all the way towards the downside.
And the same thing happened once again, right?
Bearish cross, holds below, reclaims, sends up, comes into it. Look at that rejection off of the 50 EMA, right?
Immediate rejection off the 50 EMA.
You can look to the altcoins as well
to give you a little bit of a hint as to what comes next.
Because when the market positions into risk on,
what you typically see is a much bigger move
and much more aggressive move in the altcoins
because of course there's less liquidity over there. And the same is move in the altcoins because, of course, there's less
liquidity over there. And the same is true in the opposite direction, right? When the market is
turning bearish, you'd expect that the altcoins will reject first and the altcoins will bleed out
first and more aggressively market towards the downside. And that's what we're seeing over here
on the other chart. So I hate to be, no pun intended, the bearer of bad news, but that's ultimately what
we're looking at. Okay, let's quickly see on the stock market. I don't just want to have a look at
the stock market. So let's go to that. And I'm actually curious how this one's lining up over
here. So let's see the last time that this happened. This is on the daily chart for the
S&P 500 futures. The last time we got a death cross was over here, right? It was in this period over
here, right? Price broke down. And you can see the similarities, which I'll highlight for you now,
right? You can see the similarities with this. You could easily rally back above and then ultimately
things fall through, right? So you get a big relief rally just before the death cross takes place.
And then the stock market follows through with a bleed from the point of the death cross over here let's say from there if you measure price action wise to the
point where the low was made it fell around another 18.45 right so there it is let's quickly
highlight this for you again so there it is have a look at the green. Very, very, very similar price action right now.
You first fall below. Here it is. You fall below over there. There we go. We've fallen below.
You rally back up. You come back down for a second time. There you go. You rally back up.
You come back down for a second time. You hover about. You might rally into the $201 more time,
come down for a third time, and then you might put in a bigger move that would be the equivalent of bitcoin going down to that 72k rallying up into the death cross uh stock market
would probably do something similar because they so they trade so similar and then if you fail that
level into a lower high then ultimately that's where you're going to fall through right so this
is the current environment the current picture um and i think this would catch a lot of people off
side because it was meant to be you know the, the Trump era, Trump, the best president for the crypto or
for markets in general. And now you have something different that's happening, right? This will catch
a lot of people off guard. So I do think it's noteworthy to look at. I think that when you
look at all the other corrections as well that have occurred throughout over here, you didn't
get to that point where you spent this amount of time underneath the 200 EMA, right? You can see over here, you only spent small amounts of time,
just a couple of days, and then you start to V-shape. That's why this was a very, very
interesting relief rally, right? If we go back onto the stock market chart, we had it highlighted
over here. There we go. We highlighted the significance of that 50% level. We spoke about
watch for that rally into the 50% level.
You know, you could find resistance anywhere here
between the 0.382, the 50% level is a high probability zone.
And then in an extreme extension,
you're looking at that golden pocket
and we reject it over there.
So let's see, let's see what happens over here with price.
If it plays out like the last time,
you know, you'd be looking at another move up
followed by, you know, holding that range over there. And then you might put in a bit of a
bigger relief, and then you're going to start to get those crosses. The point is, which we covered
yesterday, if we start to, you know, remove all the noise over here, let's just quickly see if I
can remove this. One second, guys, one second. Let's see, I can't find over here to get off.
But if you remove this and you simply have a look
at the slope of the 200 moving average,
which way is it angled, right?
That 200 moving average is starting to roll over.
It's angled towards the downside.
Have a look at that.
There it is in that box.
This is beginning to roll over.
So if price can't reclaim that,
this is going to lead into pretty serious bear can't reclaim that um this is going to lead
into pretty serious bearish territory and again just going back in time having a look at the last
time that it did that it did start to roll over here but then you started to rally aggressively
towards the outside we actually traded this live at the time you can go back to my videos on that
exact date if you want go look at the 27 27th of October where we said this is a
buy the dip opportunity. Right now, I'm not telling you this is a buy the dip opportunity because I
do believe it's following something much more similar to this, right? We're somewhere within
this environment most likely and this could easily unwind like that, right? As that 200MA starts to
roll over, bots and algorithms start to kick in on the bearish side and they
become aggressive sellers because they train trading systems right right and that is going
to affect crypto absolutely it's going to affect crypto now how would things look if crypto were
to snap back into um you know more bullish posturing well if you look at something like
ethereum uh this is what i'd be focused on over here you know if you you look at something like Ethereum, this is what I'd be focused on over here. You know, if you're looking at something like Ethereum and you're focusing on this pink
box over here, this is a key SR flip region, which has now been lost, right? You can see
support over there, bounces, price up, comes back down, you come back, tests resistance,
resistance, flips it into support, sends it towards the upside, support sends it towards
the upside. And now you've been testing that as resistance. But if you get a sizable move within the crypto markets and bulls can reclaim this, then we can
consider this a deviation and we can say, you know what, it's back on, right? It's back on.
Therefore, we would need to see this reclaimed, right? Deviation, get back inside the trading
range over there. We consider that a deviation. It's all about how much are you
risking to get a certain reward. So the reclaim of that range level, you know, you can then place
a stop loss over there. And this becomes a tradable move back towards the top where you're getting,
you know, you're around your usual three to one risk to reward ratio, which is pretty good, right?
It's a worthwhile trade to take. But until you get above that, it's not worth taking, right?
So if bulls can get back above 2,000 for Ethereum,
sentiment can begin to shift.
Sentiment is very shot right now, right?
We know that the fear and greed is pretty low at the moment,
both on the stock market as well as crypto, but rightfully so because the stock market is coming off of that bearish
divergence on the weekly scale and it's broken structure and it has low volume throughout this move over here.
So as price was rising, the volume remained pretty low and that showed us there was going to be a
trap, right? Have a look over here. Volume is going down. We spoke a lot about this. Price was
going up, volume is going down. It told us don't trust that, right? Don't trust that move. You can
see volume more recently on this little bit of a move up over here has picked up ever so slightly, but
let's just watch it. It doesn't just roll over again, right? If it does, again, that's going to
show complacency. And then you're leading to your next move down and we're targeting at least 5,200
for the S&P 500 over there, which is, this is one of the easiest ways to chart Bitcoin.
The same way I just told you, use Bitcoin as your North Star for the altcoins, use the S&P 500 as
your North Star for what Bitcoin is going to do, right? There's far less trappy scenarios that
occur within the stock market than there is in Bitcoin because it's much more regulated, right? So we also played this move into the 0.382 NASDAQ,
specifically focusing on the tech stocks over here,
which Bitcoin is going to trade most similar to.
You can see, you know, you got that move exactly into the 0.382
and price rejected.
So if we look at the new FIB levels,
ultimately you need to get above the 50% level.
If you get back above the 50% level, it will be looking good. That's 499. If you cannot get back above the 50% level. If you get back above the 50% level, it'll be looking good.
That's 499.
If you cannot get back above the 50% level,
then for Nasdaq,
these are going to be your major support levels, right?
So first areas of interest I'd be outlining
or lining up over here is going to be into this.
So in give or take,
I'm going to be targeting about 50% of that WIC.
So I'm just going to mark it out.
That would be the first area of interest possible support over there. And then your absolute
giga main area of interest support is going to be into this zone. So if you did get a severe
ejection over there and you fell through, you know, that green box is going to be significant,
very, very, very significant. But what you have to ask yourself is if you do get from here to there another 14 15 drop on qqq or nasdaq that's
going to really affect um bitcoin right there's no way bitcoin withstands that okay let's quickly
have a look at tesla how's that doing okay this is officially stopped out so yesterday remember
we spoke about it we took one third of profits coming into the 200 um ma over here and we said
raise the stops into break even.
This trade is officially out.
It's over.
You got taken out of the rest of that position on the BTCC trade.
There's a link below, by the way.
If you want to trade this BTCC, go over there, click on BTCC.
It's linked in the description below.
They actually have a trading competition, which is happening right now.
You get 10% deposit on your first or bonus on your first deposit that you put in.
So you put in $10,000, they'll give you $1,000, right?
Which you can use to trade with.
And there is a trading competition taking place right now.
So very, very quickly, that is where let's go back to Tesla.
That is Tesla.
Let's quickly line these up.
So still pretty much the same, right? I would say,
you know, if it can reclaim and start getting above 320, it might look like a high lows
forming over here. But otherwise, you know, this is a downtrend. Lower lows and lower highs,
very bad. Look at that absolute clear rejection off of the 200 over there. Look at that wick over
there. If we just zoom in a little bit, look at that. Pretty much strong rejection off of the 200 over there. Look at that wick over there. If we just zoom in a little bit, look at that. Pretty much strong rejection off of that level. There's a lot of work to be done
over here. So the stock market is not looking very, very healthy, right? You have to be honest
about this. Gold continues to soar as well. We spoke about gold a lot. We'll cover this a little
bit more in the coming days and weeks. There is a TD sequential nine top on gold on multiple
different significant time frames and
if gold does form a top over there you know maybe we'll see a bit of a switch within the markets but
until that happens um you know gold is sniffing out a crisis it always does and it's selling you
that pressure is towards the downside um for crypto as well as the equities right so all right I know
it's not what you wanna hear.
You know, as Wesley says over there,
only player telling us the brutal truth.
You know, guys, remember I told you the brutal truth
my first ever time coming onto YouTube
where Bitcoin was trading over here.
Let's quickly go back to that.
And many of you all remember this.
Many of you all remember how much hate you gave me, right?
Some of you out there turn from
villains into fans, right? This was my first opportunity to ever be on YouTube. It was over
here. Otherwise, I would have told you I was already exiting the market over here at about
$53,000. And I told you we're going sub $20,000 publicly, right? Go onto YouTube, go onto this
date on the 28th of March march go back in the previous streams
and you'll see i told you i'm going short over there and i'm shorting to sub twenty thousand
dollars and that's exactly what we did right i got a lot of hate for that but the truth does hurt
right because especially if it's against our buyers it's too soon for me to tell you this
is absolutely 100 happening the same way when i exited over here around that 53k level,
I wasn't on YouTube yet at that point in time. So I couldn't share this. I wasn't sure that we're
going into a bear market. I was just simply going risk off. So I would pretty much say that,
you know, the price action that we're seeing, that we saw back here at 53k in the last cycle
is very similar to what we're seeing right now. I'm not sure that we're going
into a bear market yet. I can't say hand on my heart, this is happening. All I can tell you is
that I saw signs that I need to go risk off and I need to be very, very careful. And that played
out towards the downside. The point that I can tell you with certainty would be on the next pump,
like over here. I could tell you with certainty, we were in big, big trouble over there and we're
going much, much lower. You can see over here, you started to put in a bear flag, right? There it was,
a bear flag. And that's how I knew we're going in for quite a serious drop. And then you can also
go back to these videos over here where we flipped long, right? I flipped long pretty much right over
here between 16.8 and 17.2, just before the big move. And also over there, I wasn't 100% sure that that was the bottom
of going into a bull market. All I knew is that it was a worthwhile trade that I absolutely had
to take, right? So we spoke about this yesterday, you know, this trend line over here. This is kind
of where I would become a little bit more certain. I would again, just to emphasize, this area that
I'm highlighting is kind of similar to this. I not sure right price could easily reclaim here if it does I'm going long or price could come down into here if it holds this I'm also going long and that could be support and it could be a trap the point that I become more certain is if we do break this level down and we start to go lower and then we lead into a relief rally into this region over here. Once again,
you know, testing is some sort of underside resistance. That becomes similar to that 48k
where I publicly went short all the way sub 20. Then I'd be looking for something similar, right?
And then you can say that, you know, now we're in big trouble and we're going into a bear market.
How low would we go? You know, I think that there would be major technical support in this $30,000
region. Now it's too soon.
I cannot make that call.
All I can tell you is if we do lose those key levels,
major support,
we spoke about the confluence of this yesterday.
Why?
Measured from the low to the high.
This is the 50% level of the trading range that we've had.
I know it doesn't look like it's halfway
because of the scale that I have the chart on at the moment,
but $62,892 is a significant level, right?
So that's one area of interest.
It lines up with this upsloping trend line.
It lines up with the RSI and the weekly timeframe holding that 44 region, which could, if you have a quick move down, it could still hold up, right?
So these are the probabilities. this is ultimately what we're
looking at over here um and uh it's the stock market that we need to really really be viewing
so if you do want more information on this guys i am dropping it of course you know in my section
of whale room if you want to be um take a more like uh interested approach to trading and you
want to learn a lot more everything is dropped in over here under my section, Captain's Take. Other traders are crushing it over there as well.
You have Farouk over here who's been scalping Bitcoin 30% up on that trade. And then you can
have a look over here as well. Chris doing the same thing. A lot of profitable trades. You can
check our bragging rights section. Traders are making money both ways, right? So somebody actually
just said that yesterday, you know, we're not bullish, we're not bearish, we're just traders looking for
opportunities both long and short. So that's from me, folks. Thank you so much for joining.
I will catch you on the next one. I hope you have a great day. Stay safe out there and cheers for now.
