today's show. I'm going to show you exactly what I'm doing. Theoretically, we're going to employ
all three of those strategies. So smash the like button, hit the bell notification,
and subscribe to the channel if you're not already subscribed. Also vote in the poll over
there what you're going to be doing in the short, the medium, and the long term. Let's get straight
into the show content. Banter bubbles over here, a little bit of a pullback yesterday.
One that actually got absolutely smashed was hype
right so we'll talk about that we'll have a look at hyperliquid as well um it seems like some are
labeling it the ftx 2.0 it has the opportunity to be that that is at least coming from uh somebody
high up in bitget who wrote about that in a tweet so we'll talk about that as well we'll have a look
at the chart uh let's get straight into it first First, I want to start off on the high timeframe,
specifically looking at the stock market.
Remember, bearish divergence still present,
breakup structure is still there.
You've rejected now off of the all-important 50% level.
We said that was one of the potential areas,
but let's see if we can consolidate,
hold up here a little bit.
Then it may actually put in another drive
you may see something like that uh remember we've got multiple different targets over here
our job as a trader is to see how price reacts into each of those levels and then you can play
the probabilities that's all that is right that is what trading is you play the probability so
price comes into the 50 level and you see hey on the, on the low timeframes, like the five minute chart,
it's showing that it's rejecting. What do you do? You open up a hedge short trade with your stop
loss slightly above and then if price breaks down, well, now you have a free trade all the way down
to the bottom and immediately you reduce your risk by moving your stops into break even or slight
profit so that you cover the trading fees for the stop loss. And then if you're wrong,
so what? It puts in another bounce over here. And then you attempt to short that once again from the 618. And it will probably pull back a little bit. And if it spikes up one more time,
your final line in the sand, if you were bearish on this, is going to be the daily fair value gap
over here. Now, why are we talking about this? Why are we looking at the stock market? Remember,
the stock market is driving the majority of the markets, right?
It's going to heavily, heavily affect the crypto market as well.
And we are seeing some serious warning signs on these stock markets, right?
You have, for example, on the S&P 500, which is the chart that we just looked at.
Now, remember, this has got a low time frame and a high time frame breakup structure on
the daily and the weekly time frame.
You have literally broken structure. You've created a lower low, which means you now need to look out for the lower high,
right? There is something different that's happening. Not only that, but on the three
week timeframe, you have the MACD, which is now crossed towards the downside, just like it did
at the end of 2021, leading into 2022. And of course, that was the bear market that led into a bear market for
the stock market as well as crypto, pulling crypto down with it, right? Bitcoin at that point in time
topped at $69,000. And the stock market obviously continued to draw down over the coming months,
right? Pretty much for the majority of 2022 for one full year before you found a bottom,
which was the crypto bear market right
so a lot of important things to look at macds cross and more importantly the moving averages
are coming from a serious height right which means you're going to look for a move all the
way back down to the zero line which means you don't want to fight the oil tanker turning right
uh remember the oil tanker has turned the corner if the oil tanker turns, right? Remember, the oil tanker has turned the corner.
If the oil tanker turns the corner,
it's got serious momentum behind it.
It doesn't simply just quickly turn back
towards the upside, right?
So you got the bearish cross.
NASDAQ, same thing, right?
You have the bearish cross.
And you can see over here,
it took 427 days before you reach the bullish cross once again,
which theoretically could mean
that you lead into a full-on bear market, right? So if something different is happening and we start to break
back towards the upside, of course, we'll catch that move, right? This is why we play the market
in both directions. And then you have Bitcoin doing exactly the same thing, right? Bitcoin
putting in its second bearish cross of the cycle, just like you had here. This was the 65k top for
Bitcoin. When the MACD crossed towards the downside, you got the bearish cross of the cycle, just like you had here. This was the 65K top for Bitcoin. When the MACD crossed towards the downside,
you got the bearish cross with those MACD moving averages.
And then the second cross over there
was the nail in the coffin at 69K,
huge bearish divergence that led to price falling, right?
For about a year in alignment and in unison
with what the stock market was doing over there, right?
So these are the things that we have to look at
and we have to take seriously.
Second bearish cross coming from a very, very serious height.
You've crossed on your, at least your histogram
as well towards the downside.
And therefore that is pressure down in alignment
with break of structures on Bitcoin as well
on the weekly timeframe, right?
This is one of our high timeframe charts
that we're looking at. Now, if you are to put in a lower high, I would anticipate it's going to
happen within the next two weeks, right? So that would be the timing factor that you can throw in
over there. Around about in the next two weeks, you could spike a little bit higher, right? You
could even get as high as pretty much this breakdown point of year, which is about 96,700.
I can imagine the froth and the FOMO
that will come into the market
if you do see something like that.
The important thing is this is still tradable, right?
that you don't wanna play the long side at all.
This is still perfectly tradable.
If you actually close back above the pink box over there,
that would actually be a bullish sign
a lot of people will be calling this a deviation
or swing failure pattern towards the downside. But we have to cross that road when it comes. should be a bullish sign where you can call this a lot of people be calling this a deviation or
swing failure pattern towards the downside but we have to cross that road when it comes we're not at
that point in time right now we've spent a lot of time underneath that level and therefore that is
resistance right previous support look at all those weeks now turning into potential resistance
with some dangerous signs coming from the stock market and high time frame momentum oscillators right so
there's bitcoin as well you do have over here on the sharp a shooter indicator this is coming from
jesse olsen so shout out to him identifying this um you know sharp shooter sell signal high time
frame momentum oscillators this means that all of your algorithms um are or your algo bots are
starting to turn into sell bots, right?
They're gonna be selling.
When they get these signals,
these guys start to sell aggressively.
They don't work on emotions.
These sell bots work on probabilities and momentum.
And the momentum is shifting, right?
So now they're gonna start to turn on those bots
and they're gonna start to aggressively sell.
So again, what do you do?
Wait, sell, buy. Wait, sell wait sell buy what are you going to do well i think in the very short term i guess i'll give the spoiler alert in
the very very short term you're probably waiting um soon in the next couple of weeks or more the
medium time frame you're probably looking for a short sell if we do spike up a little bit higher
um and then you're probably looking for one more buy,
because there will be bounces along the way. And then you're going to go back to waiting. So there's
a whole lot of trade opportunities that are going to be coming up. And it just depends on the time
frame that you're looking at, right? As you can see over here, if we look at, you know, this
indicator, again, it shows the change of character, break of structure, prices move towards the
downside, and you do have your trend turning red, which has happened previously. This has been corrective phases. And you can see
sometimes these corrective phases could last for a couple of months, right? And that's where your
long-term weighting comes into play, where you're looking for the optimal buy the dip zone. So
volume still remains low. It's a little bit higher in terms of liquidations than what we saw
yesterday. Yes, they were under 200 million terms of liquidations than what we saw yesterday.
Yesterday, we were under 200 million.
Now we're back to that 260 million.
But I do want to remind you, remember,
usually we're seeing these billion dollar liquidations,
billion, billion, billion, billion, over and over again,
because the market has become bigger and bigger
in terms of stable coins have been growing.
That's been actually one of crypto's biggest successes
So this is getting tighter and tighter, but it can remain tight for a long period of time.
And consequently, I did say yesterday, don't short a dull market. So I wouldn't be shorting
right now while things are flat. I'd rather wait for a little bit more excitement
if I was going to actually take a swing short, right? Then we're looking for a bigger spike up,
trap a few more longs over there, and then you can take the short short, right? Then we're looking for a bigger spike up, trap a few more longs over there,
and then you can take the short trades, right?
So volume still diminishing over here.
You can see it's attempting to uptick,
it's like ever so slightly, went from 33.1 billion,
this is exchange volume, to 34.5.
So adding a little bit more,
and then you dropped again from 34.5 down to,
So you added on 0.02 onto the volume over there.
So very, very, very slight adjustments,
but generally speaking, that's been a downtrend, right?
Volume still diminishing over here,
still have the volume profile on the right side
and you're coming into that trend line over there, which is resistance, right? That is resistance. We've
covered that over there. We said this is our optimal range. So remember, are you waiting,
are you selling, or are you buying? So I guess this is kind of the plan, right? You're looking
at something like this, you're in the waiting game until you get maybe a spike up like this,
then you're in the selling game, and then you're in the waiting game until you get maybe a spike up like this. Then you're in the selling game.
And then you're in the buying game
if it gets back down to the bottom over here.
That's generally speaking the plan.
I would like to see something like that.
It's not to say that it has to happen.
You might only see price do something like that,
and then you could start to break that structure.
So a lot of moving parts,
but don't forget the high timeframes, right?
The high timeframes take time to play out, but they dictate the next couple of months,
which I know the majority of you sitting over here watching right now are probably more in for the long term.
You're in the long term game.
You know, you want to buy and hold a portfolio and you just want to sit on your hands for a couple of months, right?
So this is for you, right?
This is very, very important that you focus on these things. This governs those downtrends over time, right?
So cool, we're waiting for that. Let's see liquidation levels in the very short term.
This is what could draw price into those high levels. You do have some short liquidations
that are building up over here. These are short traders stop losses that are placed. So if you do
get that spike up, and then you slam back down, there might be an opportunity at about $85,000. And the reason why
is this, right? You have a massive, massive amount of Bitcoin orders. Each of these numbers
represents one full Bitcoin, right? So you're talking about, I think it's something like,
let me just see over here, you're talking about something like 7,400 Bitcoin sitting at this 85K region, which means if you do draw that liquidity over there,
big spike up in the short term, slam it back down to about 85K, watch for a bounce. But remember,
market makers trick a lot of people through something called spoofing. You need to watch
these orders over here. This is dropped in Whaleroom, by the way. I see in the comments, you guys are asking, where can you get this data?
You get this data in Whaleroom. This is under our institutional chart section. And you get also
all the high block capital information. This is paid data, right? You have to pay for this data.
But if you, of course, jump into Whaleroom, we share it with you with the interpretation on it
you know, pretty flat over here on the deltas across the board, traders not really picking
any sort of a side. The market usually moves towards or gravitates towards where the liquidity
is highest in these types of environments, right? So you can see the liquidity building there,
about 40 million, maybe a move up to the upside first, grab some of that and then
slam it back down. But watch out for the spoofing from the market makers that they don't pull these
orders off the book as they approach, because sometimes that's what they do to trap people,
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days uh you have very very very good odds of winning and let's get into the altcoins right
so if we look at the altcoins um the rsi uh heat map shows most of the altcoins are now sitting kind of moving out of that weak
zone into the neutral um you have your weekly which is still very much in the weak zone uh let's
have a look quickly at the four hour um moving into strong so you can see there is bounces which
are in play definitely there are bounces in play If you look over here on the hourly,
you know you're getting some big moves over here.
There are definitely bounces, right?
Monthlies, most of the coins are still down.
Weeklies, again, starting to move towards the upside.
So you can see over here,
if we look at something like Solana,
you know it has been holding that range low support.
I do still believe if Bitcoin puts in another leg down,
it's really possible that you see Solana move all the way down to about $80. That would be wiping out all
of these traders who obviously have their hard stops and soft stops placed underneath these
wicks over here. So I could see quite easily the market makers coming and basically just sweeping
those guys out of their positions, you know, something like this, and then a move back up.
If you reclaim, that becomes a strong buy the dip zone, right? So this is a downtrend. Don't
get confused. Remember, until such time as you break above this level, which is your previous
month's mid-range, Solana is theoretically in a downtrend. Sui started to put in a really nice
move. This came absolutely perfectly into the horizontal support. You've broken that downsloping trend line.
You've deviated back into the trading range.
And this can squeeze significantly, right?
You can squeeze all the way up to about $3 over there
and still have bearish price structure.
So just understand that, you know,
understand the broader scheme of things,
so that you don't get too caught up in, you know,
the pumps, right? Play the pumps, play the moves towards the upside, but don't necessarily expect
that you're going to do this, right? Because I think this is what some people think. Some people
look at these charts and they think, you know, it broke the trend line and this is next. That's
probably not going to happen, at least not in a straight line if it was there would
be signs with uh ebbs and flows along the way right um but again you'd be fighting this you'd
be fighting these stock market trends that have turned towards the downside as well as the crypto
trends as well um all right let's have a look at uh some of the other trades over there let's quickly
see what hype looks like uh where's that hype trade? There we go. Let's have a look at hype.
So hype yesterday broke down.
It's been in a downtrend anyway, theoretically.
They jumped in over here at about 1234
with some big buys that stepped in over there.
But I would wait a couple of days
before jumping into anything like this.
Understand you're still fighting a downtrend.
This has been a strong move towards the downside.
All that you had to defend this price action over here,
chart-wise, was a little bit of an order block, right?
Remember the people that got airdropped this
So they still up heavily, right?
and immediately the market launched at about $3.
People started to buy in over there,
which means that if these guys threaten those levels, once again,
you could easily see this drop lower. Okay. So that is hype. What else do we have over here?
Let's see. We'll look at, let's see Sonic over here on the low timeframe. Okay. Sonic still
pressing up a little bit. You know, you got your previous month's mid-range.
That's going to be a significant level.
Remember, you do also have a daily fair value gap,
which is going to provide as resistance coming into that zone.
So you can see it pretty clearly over here.
Here is your daily fair value gap.
That is a massive amount of resistance, right?
So if Sonic can start to push through that,
that's going to be looking good.
I personally would wait on this one.
I'd wait for low prices, see if it puts in a high low around the Monday low. That's about 52 cents.
It's going to take time to get through this. I don't expect this to push through like a hot
knife through butter. This is your order block that led to the breakdown. Therefore, this is
theoretically a bearish retest as well. So some have caught up quicker than others. This would
be the equivalent of Bitcoin now pushing up to about $92,000, right? And then if it gets up here, that would be the equivalent
of Bitcoin trading at about $96,000. All right. Let's see. Let me know in the comments. I'm
checking the comments. Any other chart requests, anything specific you want to have a look at?
Let's quickly see how some of the large cap meme coins are doing. Has anything exciting happened over there?
Let's also have a look at some of the AI agents, right?
Let me know in the comments over there.
Okay, so this was a trade that we gave on Pepe.
You are in profit if you did take this trade.
I'll definitely eliminate the risk, right?
You don't want to break below that level again.
Even theoretically, you can move into slight profit. You don't want to break below yesterday's low. So this trade's working out.
You know, you've broken above the Monday high. Let's see if we can hold that. This can trade
easily up to the previous month's mid-range. And then theoretically, you know, that's still, again,
a bearish retest. So let's have a look at some of these other things like
Virtuos. Remember, Virt virtuals was the platform that launched
the AI agents. Have they caught any sort of a bounce? Because these dropped heavily. Remember,
from high down to low, that's bear market stuff, 90% down, absolutely massive. And now you're just
consolidating. Remember, I pulled out the Wall Street cheat sheet at the time. And I told you
guys, I literally said, you know, this really could have been the absolute parabolic blow off top leading into a complacency bounce
and then you still need to go through depression um remember you go through that panic anger uh so
there it would be you know this is more like panic now you're in anger and then you lead into
depression so i think this has gone through that depression. So watch for a little bit of reaccumulation and then some sort of a relief rally on these coins. You know, just
map them out on your chart, mark off a couple of levels, look for some low timeframe reaccumulation
and some high lows to start to form over there. All right, Renda, we can have a look at Renda.
I think I looked at Renda like two or three days ago and it was coming directly into resistance,
but let's pull it up nevertheless.
Let's see, let's see over here.
So Render, you know, this is the problem, right?
You need to go look back on where these charts are.
These things have been hit pretty hard.
And theoretically, this is going to be
a major resistance, right?
You're coming directly into resistance.
This was your major support previously, right?
Consolidates, leads into the big move up,
support, support, support, support.
and you're coming directly into that,
which is now theoretically underside resistance.
So depending on which chart you're looking at,
you're gonna use the buy, wait,
or sell strategy differently.
Like this, theoretically,
I'd be looking for a sell opportunity.
I'd be looking to short this, right?
As long as you maintain below,
specifically, I would say the previous month's mid-range,
and I'd be looking for low prices on something like that.
What else do we have over there?
Let me know in the comments.
Let's see, just scrolling through.
Would you have anything else for us hardest? Just put them on the screen over there and we can pull them up. Let's see just scrolling through would you have anything else for us
hardest just put them on the screen over there and we can pull them up let's see what fog's doing
um okay fog also absolutely annihilated over here moving through that depression phase and usually
this takes time right this is what i want to be clear about um you know these things unwound very
very very quickly look at the um the time that it took to create this move. Usually,
you're going to take about two to three times longer than that to play out your reaccumulation,
right? So, you know, this thing could reaccumulate for the whole year, which is why moving into being
a range trader can serve you very, very well, right? Buying support and short selling resistance.
While we wait for that to come up, I do want to let you guys know as well, there? Buying support and short selling resistance. While we wait for that to come up,
I do want to let you guys know as well, there is an opportunity with Ledger over here,
where if you do buy a Ledger, you'll get $70 worth of Bitcoin on the Ledger Flex as well.
So use the link in the description below. We don't get anything out of this, by the way, they give you an additional $10 on top of that. If you do follow, what do
they call this, this program again, when it comes to the ledger? If you do this, there it is, the
recovery, right? Ledger recovery, you get an extra $10 worth of Bitcoin with that. I wouldn't do that
if I were you, right? Personally, I'd protect my own keys. Unless this is like a trading wallet or
something for you that you connect to a phantom and you use that to trade with, fair enough.
Otherwise, if I was you, I would, if you do buy this, you know, just take your $70.
Link is in the description below.
Okay, we got some coin options over here.
We got Jasmine, XRP, AVAX.
So XRP, there it is uh let's see cool
xrp is still holding up over here um you know it has been theoretically one of the stronger ones it's recently shown some signs of weakness with uh you know that lower high structure forming very
very similar to bitcoin but um you know this is your major range low i would say we got the sweep
that was your swing failure pattern that came down to set in the previous month's mid-range. Let's just clean
that up. We're actually targeting that, right? We're targeting that as 50% of that week and you
came back and you tested some of that. I wouldn't really get long on XRP until it broke the structure
and it probably needs to do that at the same time as Bitcoin, right? So if Bitcoin starts to break
structure, reclaim some key levels,
new volume comes into the market and XRP puts in a big candle over here.
Great, then you have a long opportunity.
you have a massive bull flag
that would theoretically take this up
which would be a sizable move.
But let's call it from confirmation.
Depending on when that happens,
you could get a 79% move.
But if Bitcoin breaks down, it's unlikely that it's going to play ball, you know, on its own.
That was the other request.
Okay, Jasmine, pretty dismal over here.
It's been absolutely crushed.
You know, I think this could easily come down into this region over here. You
can see this was major support previously. Let's throw a horizontal in there. You could work your
way back down here, especially if Bitcoin drops to 72. Then you're looking at about 0.008, right?
That would be brutal. Let's actually measure that out and see how far down it is. That would be
like another 37% down. That's really, really, really possible.
This is a downtrend, right? Low lows and lower highs. All you have to do if you are confused with the trend is go through over here, change onto a line chart, and then you just look, right?
That's your last lower high, lower low, lower highs, lower low. So you expect over here,
you would need to take out 0.014, right? To change that. Okay, cool. The
other one was AVAX. Let's have a look at AVAX. There's AVAX. Okay, AVAX did break structure as
well. It's still in a downtrend, but at least it broke this downsloping trendline, which shows a
momentum shift, right? It doesn't show V-shaped recoveries from that point. It shows a momentum
shift. Again, use Bitcoin as your guide.
The way that we look at the stock market
as our guide for Bitcoin,
you can look to Bitcoin as your guide
for the rest of the altcoins, right?
and you see AVAX do something like this,
then theoretically in the short to medium timeframe,
you probably have a long trade opportunity
trade this to the previous month's mid, and then even possibly to the yearly open.
AVAX has a lot of work to do until such time as it gets back above this zone, right?
This is a little bit of underside resistance. It's also your previous month's high and it's
the yearly open. So for AVAX to move into any sort of a swing trade, you know, you need to
see something like that and there will still be dips along the way. It will take time, right? You can see if I draw this out, assuming you follow this
like massive pump now, all of a sudden, you know, this takes time. You could only be around mid-year
before you start to move into a proper swing trade over there. So I feel like swing trade
longs are off the table. You really need to be looking for shorter term trades. You're in, you're
out. That's why join into L room, right? If you have a look over here, Josh, one of our traders
over there, you know, 503% trade, getting it from pretty much the pico bottom over there
on this trade. This is a long trade from one of our coaches. If you do jump into Whale Room,
all of this information is here, right? Let's see. What else do we have in his group?
Let's see. He says over here, where's this? Kyle Dupes is literally my hero. Can you believe that?
Look at that. What a guy. What a guy. He writes in his own channel, Kyle Dupes is literally my hero. What a legend. Thank you very much for that commentary, Josh. We do appreciate you.
All right, guys. that's it from me.
Let's cut it off over there.
I will see you all on the next one.
I won't be doing a show tomorrow morning,
but I'll be joining with the rest of the guys.
We're doing a group show, right?
Have a great day and cheers for now.