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The Software Selloff Continues | $SPY $QQQ $IGV $CRM $ADBE $FOUR $COIN $CRCL
Recorded: March 24, 2026 Duration: 0:55:07Space Recording
Full Transcription
All right. So I want to start this one early because there actually is an interview with
Trump after the signing of the DHS secretary. So I'm going to go ahead and share this screen
so we can start watching it and then I'll roll on with the show afterwards.
Pretty good, to be honest with you. UAE's been hit so hard he got hit by four this is actually uh
a little bit delayed because i want people who are just tuning in to watch the entire thing
uh so we're like what like three minutes delayed yeah like three minutes late
1800 rockets shot them all out of the air with our great with our great uh patriot missiles think
of it they shot a hundred missiles at one of our aircraft carriers, the Abraham Lincoln, one of the biggest ships in the world, actually.
And out of 101 missiles shot, every single one of them was knocked down in the sea. Think of that. Think of what that means.
One missiles, highly sophisticated, very fast missile shot out of 101, all 101 were shot down.
And now, for the most part, lie at the bottom of the sea.
Pretty amazing, right? Pretty amazing. Our military is amazing, Pete.
You know the attack I'm talking about recently? 101 shot. I said, wow.
I saw that. You can see we have sort of pretty good equipment that we see.
It's called the red line. Those red lines were thick, right?
I said, that's a lot. And then we saw them one by one just get shot.
And these guys are do the shooting of the coolest cucumbers ever.
You know, most people. You don't have a lot of time.
When a missile is going at 2,500 miles an hour, I don't care how far away it is, you don't have a lot of time.
But I watch them sit down and think, great students, MITs, a lot of MITs, a lot of guys like this,
and not as much into the muscle as they are, this one right here and amazing just watch them perform under great pressure
because they have a matter of seconds to do it if they don't do it properly it's a big problem
you know because these were powerful these were very powerful missiles coming and so a lot of
people choke they don't choke these guys don't. They're the best in the world. We have the best in the world. Yeah.
Mr. President, what would be your message today to the TSA agents who have been staying
home in recent days amid this impact?
Well, some of them are needing money, you know, because the Democrats cut off their
money.
I blame the Democrats more than anything else.
But some of them, you know, they didn't get paid because they're not funded by the Democrats. This is a Democrat problem. In fact, I actually said to the Senate, why would you say this is a Democrat problem? I think the polls are showing us a Democrat problem. And they'll do anything actually to hurt our country so they can try and win the midterms. And if we ever went back to our old policies, we wouldn't have a country left.
If they get a deal, Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, to fund all but enforcement operations of ICE to get those TSA agents repaid and to open up the rest of the department, would you sign that?
Well, I don't want to comment until I see the deal. But as you know, they're negotiating a deal.
comment until I see the deal but as you know they're negotiating a deal I
guess they're getting fairly close but I think any deal they make I'm pretty much
not happy with it these guys came in they wouldn't pay people you know they
had a deal to pay they had to break their deal the Democrats broke the deal
that we had it was all done everything was fine and then they just said well
we're not gonna to pay anymore.
And they hurt our country. And at a very difficult time, because, you know, we are at, as they would say, a war.
They call it a war. I call it a military operation. A very successful one.
Like, successful like nobody's ever seen before. Hey, Venezuela was equally as successful.
That was a great thing. No, the Democrats had a deal.
It was a done deal.
And then they said, well, we're not going to pay.
And so a lot of people suffered over that.
And put our country in danger.
You have another question?
You haven't been here in a while.
Well, on Iran, can you give us any more sense of who exactly in Iran it is either
yeah we had I hate to say this in front of these young people they're not
children if I spoke to most of them they sound like adults to me even though
they are sort of children right they'll always be your children but I hate to
say it but we killed all their leadership and then they met to choose new leaders and we killed all of them. And now we have a new group and we can easily do that. But let's see how they turn out. It's we have really regime change. You know this is a change in the regime because the leaders are all very different than
the ones that we started off with that created all those problems so this was I think we can say
Jason this is regime change right I don't trust anybody I don't trust you I mean that's only
because I know you but if I didn't know you I'd'd probably have more trust. But I don't trust anyone.
Why do you say that?
Why do you say what makes you trust?
Do you think I trust them?
I don't trust them.
Then why bother talking to them?
Because they're going to make a deal.
They're going to make a deal.
So just to reiterate to people who are just tuning in here, because I started the stream
pretty early, we have here president
trump talking about the war which is what you're seeing on twitter if you're tuning in from twitter
all the headlines this is where it's actually coming from people are finding the quotes from
here and they're posting it so you can watch it live over here i'm going to play the rest of this
we are two or three minutes behind this because i want everyone who's strolling in her to be able to
watch it from the beginning but basically this is moving the markets right now in case you didn't realize. I mean,
obviously, everything he says moves the market. They did something yesterday that was amazing,
actually. They gave us a present and the present arrived today. It was a very big present worth a
tremendous amount of money. And I'm not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. And I'm not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize.
And they gave it to us and they said they were going to give it.
So that meant one thing to me would deal with the right people.
No, it wasn't nuclear.
It was oil and gas related.
And it was a very nice thing they did. But what it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people because, you know, you don't know because the leadership was killed. All gone. Khomeini, all gone. As the expression goes, the past Supreme Leader. And then the new Supreme Leader was racked up at a, racked up pretty good, and everyone else was gone.
And then many of the people in the third tier are gone.
But we're dealing with a group of people that I think turned out.
And the present, the gift they made to us was very significant.
And they said they were going to do it, and it happened.
And they're the only ones they could have done.
It's Jennifer.
Was it related to the straight- the moves and the flow of the...
Yeah, it was related to the flow and to the straight. Yeah, it was.
Are you negotiating on who's going to control the straight from now on?
No, we're going to... We'll have control of anything we want.
Look, if we can end this without more lives being down,
without knocking out $ billion dollar electric plants
that are brand new and the apple of their eye i'd like to be able to do that you know but uh but we
they can't have certain things i mean you you know the things i don't have to go over the list but
again it starts with no nuclear weapons and they've agreed to that there won't be any nuclear
weapons they're not going to have and they're not going to have enrichment. Any of those things. But look, I hate to say that we're in a very good bargaining position. But and I hate to say that they're defenseless because, you know, until that last missile is fired, they have little power. But we are in about the best bargaining position. We're
way ahead of schedule and again they have no Navy and they have no Air Force and they have no missile
protection and most of their missiles are gone. Most of their launches we've killed. You know
we've killed about 82 percent of their launches. So even if they had a missile they can't launch it.
We've been very we have the greatest military in the world. Nobody even comes close. We have the best
military equipment in the world. Go ahead. On Saudi Arabia, there's been some reporting
that you've been talking to the Crown Prince. Have you been focused on normalization between
Saudi Arabia and Israel? We have a great relationship with Saudi
Arabia. What do you hear with Saudi Arabia? Just hearing that you've been talking and that he has been encouraging you to do certain things related to Iran. He's a warrior. He's a warrior. He's fighting with us. By the way. Saudi Arabia has been excellent and UAE excellent. And I will tell you Qatar incredible Qatar took a hit pretty bad
hit Qatar is very close you know they're essentially you can walk right over the
border Qatar took a hit they've been great they've been very strong Kuwait
they had a little mishap they shot down three planes with our missiles they
happen to be our planes but the pilots made it can you imagine the pilots making it the pilots saw what was coming and they said those
are Patriots we're not going to escape Patriots and they got out of there pretty
quick Pete right pretty amazing that they got out the three pilots lived to
find in fact they're flying today yeah the Kuwaitis made a mistake.
They fired.
They thought they were firing at the enemy.
It was as the expression goes friendly fire.
But the pilots are great.
They're flying today.
Pretty amazing when you think of it.
Yeah.
President Trump on a human level.
How hopeful are you that this peace deal will work out?
Like as a human as. What what? On a human level not as hopeful are you that this peace deal will work out? Like as a human, as...
On what?
On a human level, not as the President of the United States.
How hopeful are you that this peace deal will work out with Iran?
You're talking about to end it?
Well, I think we're going to end it.
I can't tell you for sure.
You know, I don't like to say this.
We've won this.
This war has been won.
The only one that likes to keep it going is the fake news. I mean, the New York Times, you read the New York Times, it's like we're not winning a war where they have no Navy and they have no air force and they have no nothing. And we literally have planes flying over Tehran and other parts of their country. They can't do a thing about it. For instance, if I want to take down that power plant, that very big powerful power plant, they can't do a thing about it.
It's like, take me. That's all they can do. And yet, if you read the New York Times or if you
watch ABC fake news or NBC fake news, you'd say it's a close battle it's not a close battle they're totally defeated you
know we kill the Navy and would you say three days Pete gone in fact I was a little upset with Pete
I said why didn't you save the ships we could have used them right he said it's more fun shooting
them down but the Navy was the Navy was wiped out in a very rapid order. Pretty impressive for you guys, you champion wrestlers, right?
When you hear this stuff.
But you don't, if you read the news, you don't hear this.
You know, you read like, oh, they're doing wonderfully.
They're doing terribly.
They're wiped out militarily.
They are dead. Yeah.
When Ukraine, is there a new sense of a timeline?
Do you want to get something done before the midterms?
Well, we'd like to see President Putin and President Zelensky sit down and make a deal.
I think they're getting close, but I've been saying that for a while.
I've settled eight wars.
All of them should have been more difficult than this one.
This should have been the easiest one.
But these are two people that truly hate each other.
You'll find out that hatred is not good for making deals.
These are people that they don't like each other very much.
Yeah.
I know you said there's a bunch of people
from the administration who are negotiating with Iran.
There's been reports that the vice president
is leading those negotiations.
Is that true?
Well, he's involved in them.
JD is involved and Marco's involved
and Jared Kushner's involved. Very smart guy. And Steve Whitcoff, smart guy, is involved. And I'm involved. I'm involved. Why? I'm going to be so big. Oh, I don't want to talk about it. I'm the president of the United States, Tom. And I'm not going to talk about it. It's beneath me to talk about saving millions of lives.
Because that's what you're talking about. You're talking about saving millions of lives.
If Iran had a nuclear weapon, they would have used it. And if I didn't end the horrible Barack
Hussein Obama Iran nuclear deal in my first administration, they would have had a nuclear weapon three or four years ago
they would have used it i would have never gotten the chance probably to be president who knows if
what it would have been so devastating and if we didn't send those beautiful b2 bombers
they took them off my desk they were right there i don't know why but if we didn't have those beautiful the B2 hit what
which is so we obliterated despite CNN CNN said well maybe the word obliteration
said no no we obliterated it just obliterated their nuclear potential you
would have had them having two weeks after that attack had we not made the
attack they would have had a nuclear weapon they would have absolutely use it and they would have used it on the entire Middle East including Israel.
And you know why you see that because unexpectedly when this war broke out unexpectedly they started sending missiles to UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia Kuwait Bahrain and elsewhere and nobody thought they were
that were you equally surprised by that Pete do you want to give about a three
minute statement on how we're doing in this as I call it military operation
people don't like me using the word war but so so I won't. But the Democrats go out of
war. How about a little statement? I think he's done a very good job. Do we agree he's done a good
job, Mark? Can we take some of your time? Well, thank you, Mr. President. You're spot on. Never in
history has a modern military, Iran had a modern military, a modern Navy, a modern air force, modern air defenses, leadership, massive bunker.
Never has a modern military been so rapidly and historically obliterated, defeated from day one with overwhelming firepower.
The air campaign that we've conducted, that Israel's conducted alongside us, was one for the history books, truly. And it's because we have a president of the United States that when he sends his warfighters out to fight,
he unties their hands to actually go out and close with and destroy the enemy as viciously as possible from moment one.
And that's why we see ourselves as part of this negotiation as well.
We negotiate with bombs. You have a choice as we loiter over the top of Tehran, as the president talked about,
about your future. The president has made it clear that you will not have a nuclear weapon.
The War Department agrees. Our job is to ensure that. And so we're keeping our hand on that
throttle as long as it's hard as is necessary to ensure the interest of the United States of
America are achieved on that battlefield. This is not Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a president who's interested in vague end states. He's been very clear with us about what
we need to accomplish, creating the conditions for them never to have a nuclear capability,
and that's exactly what we're doing in historic fashion. Thank you, Mr. President.
You know, the only two people that were quite disappointed, I don't want to say this, but I have to,
people that were quite disappointed I don't want to say this but I have to I
said Pete and general Raisin Cain I think this thing's gonna be settled very
soon here they go oh that's too bad Pete didn't want it to be settled it's it's
these guys are doing a great job that's a good attitude though Tom right they
were not interested in settlement they were interested in just winning this thing.
Yeah, please. Mr. President, can you just taking things locally, hopefully not doing international
affairs for a second. Do you support the construction of the second avenue subway in New York City and
will your administration? All right. Probably I think that's about it. I tried to look at the
rest of it. That's about it. All right, guys, let's roll it i tried to look at the rest of it that's about it
all right guys let's roll it and we're going to start the show
shout out to public.com for sponsoring the stream it's a platform built for serious investors with stocks options
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your portfolio check them out at public.com forward slash wolf investing involves risk
and this is not investment advice so we've obviously had a crazy day so far everyone got a
little bit excited yesterday.
I was not super excited yesterday seeing that bounce. I mean, yes, it was nice to see the
bounce because we were kind of calling it here all last week, me and Steve also as well.
But it was pretty short lived. Now the question is, are we going to continue to float higher
or is this war going to escalate or go in the opposite direction that
Trump said it's going to go and go down lower? Now me personally, I think volatility is here
to stay for the time being. I don't think we're going to go back to all time highs anytime soon.
I think there's going to be a bit more chop. We did hit the bottom of the range. So it's possible
we might float a little bit higher, but it's not going to be a safe and
bumpy ride and not everything is going to float higher as we are seeing today.
So I'm going to touch a little bit on the markets.
I'm going to touch a little bit on some of the charts over there.
In addition to that, we are going to be talking about an interview that Databricks CEO did
discuss basically taking down a lot of software stocks, but most importantly,
CM, which is basically events and incident managed monitoring, Datadog, and so on. Certain
sectors that cybersecurity stocks have been going into. We're going to check that one out.
We are, oh, that's a wrong, hold on a second. I was trying to pull something up over here. That was the wrong one. Why isn't
this thing reloading? I have all my notes that I take for every single episode that I do,
and I cannot seem to find... Okay, here we go. We're also going to talk about shift four,
basically up about 25%, or at least last time I checked, we're going to look at a little bit
of a clip for an interview with Jared Isaacman, who is the director and leader of NASA.
And I guess they are translating all those gains into shit for stock where
here's the founder and a previous CEO.
I believe he's still sits on the board on there as well.
That stock is up pretty nicely.
And should we buy the stable coin dip coin base and Circle are down a lot today. Hint, hint,
I might've bought the dip in one of them. So let's go ahead and get started over here.
Let's discuss the dip buying that's been happening recently. We have the CEO of Interactive Brokers
discussing with CNBC how he has been seeing a lot of aggressive dip buying. The question is,
where is he seeing
this dip buying? And let's go ahead and check this one out. 5% or less since Jan 1. Let's bring in
Steve Sosnick. He's the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers here on set with me.
I mean, maybe forget it. My bad is the chief strategist.
But what did the market internals tell you? The market internals tell me that we still have this underlying bid.
There's still this undercurrent of FOMO.
There's still nobody who wants to miss a rally.
And as a result, partially because, as Jeff Curry said earlier, that oil is not as bad as could be,
we're not at the depths that we thought we might be.
This has been the Persian Gulf situation is something that we've been modeling
out, risk managers, and I was
one for a long time, were always
gaming out what would happen if there was a closure
of the Strait of Hormuz. And the
gaming was $150 to
$200 barrel oil
and a minimum 10% correction
in the S&P 500. Well, we
haven't gotten those, and to that
extent, maybe, because oil's not
as bad as it could be, at least not yet, according to him. Or maybe it's just because we've gotten
so convinced that, you know, every dip is a buying opportunity and every presidential move can be
undone, shall we say, that nobody wants to be the one who wants,
you know, who's selling it out.
And that's the dynamic.
Where do you see people kind of most excited to jump in
and across kind of the markets broadly?
Is it the favorite names we've talked about over the years?
Is it sectors like soft?
I mean, where do you see activity?
I hear more than ever about some of the new drone
and AI defense companies and things like that.
There's always going to be a group of people looking for, you know, sort of the sexy new company.
And yeah, there was the drone company that went up, you know, 11-fold in two days.
You know, that's a cool story.
Where we see most of the activity, we still see people aggressively dip buying.
Micron was the most active stock on our platform.
Wow, interesting.
Why? Because Micron got...
And such a great performer and had that pullback.
But exactly, it got the crap kicked out of it after earnings,
and so people rushed in.
One name that we do see a lot of people buying is VOO,
which tells me that investors are active,
that people are seeing this as a longer-term possibility.
And VOO is just the broad market, and it's Vanguard S&P 500?
It is, but what happens, see, when SPY is active, that tells me traders are trading it because SPY is more of a
trading name. VOO is not as liquid. It doesn't have liquid options at all, but it's cheaper.
So investors like VOO, traders like SPY. And so you think this is a moment, and again,
we're saying the worst month in about a year. Well, what happened a year ago?
Look at the panic after the tariffs that the president put on.
And again, look at what happened if you weren't coming in to buy at that moment.
And I guess that's what people are conditioned to do here.
That's exactly it.
People are conditioned to see every dip as a buying opportunity.
What's the proverb?
If you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
And, you know, to some extent, that was the case.
And, you know, I wrote earlier this week about the Trump put.
And on Friday I wrote, what's the strike price on the Trump put?
Yesterday we learned that the strike price was either $6,500 on the S&P,
$500 or $445 on the 10-year.
I actually think it was more of a bond.
It was almost more of a bond reaction because as a real estate guy
who hangs around with other real estate guys,
you're very tied into the borrowing costs.
Yeah, he definitely has a point there.
And in fact, we did have someone in the chat comment and ask about bonds.
And that's something I've really been looking at lately, not for a buying opportunity or anything like that, but because that actually matters a lot more to the stock market than the stock market and risk assets themselves. Because risk assets,
especially what's been leading the market has been tech for the most part. But there is a lot
of money in the bond market and that has a direct economic impact on the borrowing costs for a lot
of these other institutions and companies that are basically borrowing a lot of debt, which is
really the fuel for tech in general. So if you have the bond market and yield spike up that means borrowing
costs and fear for those companies that are looking to borrow money might take a second as
to whether they want to borrow debt or whether they should either sell their debt or so on
it might be something that moves the markets more than ever and that is probably what gave
trump the green light to
start setting out those tweets now whether they're true or not is really the big question
oh that's that's very awkward i can't bring this down here here we go
but as a result um i think that's why you saw the president say what he said both Friday afternoon and again yesterday morning, sort of to put in that level.
But what happens here is this is a lot harder to undo than the tariffs.
The tariffs were the stroke of a pen, and you could change them.
In this case, you're dealing with global supplies of a commodity that take a long time to ship around the world
and to get those price pressures through. And it's not just crude oil, it's liquefied natural gas,
it's fertilizer, it's helium, which did you... I didn't know until this...
Pharmaceuticals.
I had no idea that helium was so critical to semiconductor production.
So there's all these factors of the supply chain that need to be worked through.
So even if this thing resolves tonight, there's still going to be supply shock effects.
Question is, if it ends quickly, you can call it transitory.
And I know that's a dirty word when it comes to inflation, but
you could think of it as transitory.
The longer it lasts, the worse this becomes because they get more embedded in the system.
Yeah. So he's really got a point over there. I wanted to share the charts over here to actually show you guys what is leading the market and what is actually selling off.
Now, it is not this is my portfolio for the most part. It is not everything in tech that's getting sold off. In fact, if I look at the ETFs over here,
you could see that SOX is up one and a half percent, which is quite a good amount for a
market that is flat to down today. SPY is actually about flat today, but the RSP is up about 50 basis
points. So we're starting to get that broadening out of the stock market. Also IWM, which is made
of mostly regional banks and large banks as well. Let's see what the KRE is doing today. The KRE is up about
1%. What about XLF? XLF is up about 35 business points. So not everything is falling today,
but what is falling today, guys? It is IGV is falling pretty nastily today. But my argument
is that if you have the mega caps falling today, you're going to have a lot of the market falls
today. This is about 50% of the entire stock falling today, you're going to have a lot of the market fall dead.
This is about 50% of the entire stock market.
You have NVIDIA that was down earlier this morning.
You have Netflix, which is down 2%.
You have Microsoft, which is the king of software, down 2.5%.
You have Meta down 1.5%, back below $600.
You have Google down 3%.
That's a $3 trillion market cap down 3%.
You have Amazon.
Of course, there is no red day without Amazon being down. That's a $3 trillion market cap down 3%. And you have Amazon. Of course, there is no red
day without Amazon being down. That's down about 1%. If you look at the semiconductors across the
board, shout out to Crossroads. You know, where's Crossroads? He never really comes on here or
anything. I need to call that guy out because he is doing phenomenal on air test systems. This one's
up about 5%. A couple of the stocks that I do have in my portfolio, Amcor, which is a very large
holding, my portfolio is up which is a very large holding my
portfolio is up nine percent today i've been pounding the table on on semiconductor this is
up about five percent today nebius is actually green today but this one's been pretty volatile
i did tell you guys that i got into marvel technology so we're up about three percent on
that today sign is about five percent so congratulations for the bag holders including
myself on that one uh amprius is up pretty decent today uh centrist energy is up today zeta this one really hurts home because
i do have a pretty decent size in zeta but i guys i i really do believe in the software in this
company if i'm going to make a bet on certain software companies it is zeta is going to be one
of them uh did buy the dip in uh circle today I'll talk a little bit about that one later. And we also have BG here, which is pulling back today. My guess is that looking at the market
kind of recovering here and seeing these negotiations happen a little bit, I do think
that crude oil as a commodity is going to be heavily impacted by, let's say, the resolution
of the entire war. But I do think these subsidiaries that do benefit off the cost of higher oil,
like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and for liquefied natural gas or LNG would be VG at next decade,
which next decade isn't a direct beneficiary of it right now as it is today, but they will be later
on. I think these companies will still stay very relevant in the stock market because they are
able to profit off of the higher prices that are out there right now. The question is, did the market already front run that? Is it going to pull
back? Well, for me, if I was in VG and I had a massive position, I would definitely start taking
profits right now. I wouldn't completely exit the position, but I would look to either sell some
covered calls or maybe take off maybe like 30% of the position just in case. But if you're like a
very long-term investor, like 10 plus years, you probably don't need to do anything right. And of course, this is not
financial advice. Everyone needs to make their decisions and do their own research.
HUD actually is down about 4% today. It's interesting because this is back under $70.
I already mentioned Meta and there's a few other things. Grab is about 4% today.
Um, I did have a segment talking about grab yesterday, this morning, we did receive news
that grab just authorized a $400 million buyback in the next four months.
So that is a very accelerated buyback that they're joining with JP Morgan and another
bank in doing so.
But, uh, I would say that the leading names are continuing to lead the market and the laggers
are continuing to go down. Rubrik has been a massive laggard in the market and it made
lower lows, not lower lows, but it made a nasty low today over here. I already mentioned Zeta,
Mercado, Libre or EM is pulling back quite a good amount. I wonder what Nubank is doing
over here. Nubank is down two and a a half percent so you have a lot of your emerging
market stocks come down a little bit and that's mostly because you probably have the us dollar
appreciating a bit over here yeah the us dollar is up about 20 basis points let's take a look at
the rates real quick and then we'll move on to the next segment of the show uh let's see over here
yeah rates are actually up pretty decently today, but didn't
really quite take out the previous high from yesterday. I'm not really trying to trade the
bond market right now. I think the alpha is short in the bond market in which Stan Drunken Mill and
a few other people are actually short the front end of the curve. I think that alpha is already
lost right now, so you're probably going to get a bit of consolidation. But more importantly,
thing to look at is the move index.
So the move index is the VIX for the bond market, and it is compressing a little bit, which is good to see, but still very high.
It's up about double for where it was just a couple of months ago.
So I'm going to continue to take a look at that one.
Credit spreads, of course, is another thing you want to take a look at as well.
This one is still excessively high, but you're going to need to have some sort of compression, especially on the VIX to bring a lot of that volatility downwards. So let's move on to
the next segment of the show. We did have the CEO of Databricks come on to CNBC and basically discuss
how he thinks that his company is killing certain software stocks and sectors. Let's take a listen
into everything that he needs to say regarding this and i will provide
my input ali gozi dear job kelly thank you very much and ali thank you so much for being here with
us right off your keynote um you know i look around we've got splunk crowd strike palo alto
on the floor of rsac this year you are now entering the cyber security market they have decades of
expertise thousands of people who specialize in cyber security why do you think the data bricks this year. You are now entering the cybersecurity market. They have decades of expertise, thousands
of people who specialize in cybersecurity. Why do you think the Databricks can take them on?
Yeah, I think there's a big secular shift happening now. And I really think AI is going
to kill the sim this year. I think this is the year AI kills the sim, you know, the security.
What's a sim?
A sim is a security information event management system that does all of your detections
in your organization. It detects if something is wrong, if something system that does all of your detections in your organization.
It detects if something is wrong, if something is suspicious, and all of that.
This is the year where it's going to be disrupted.
You know, these old legacy systems are very expensive.
Getting data into them is super hard.
People are not even looking at all the data.
And then on top of lots of manual labor, you know, security teams are waking up every day,
and they're having thousands of alerts and just can't go through them. And then on the other side, the attackers are getting more and more sophisticated and like just using agents to attack these systems,
no longer even humans. So two, three years ago, it would take something like, you know,
three, four months from the time a vulnerability was found until someone exploited it. That
is now down to one day. So it's not even humans anymore attacking these systems.
So we need a new approach, and the new approach is open.
So all your data in an open lake house,
and then unleash all the agents, open agents
that you compose on top of that,
so that we're fighting agents with agents
instead of fighting agents with humans.
And critically, something you have
that they don't necessarily have is the data already.
You have the data lakes, which is why I believe you're able to make this more cheap,
right? Lower costs. You say you're going to cut it by some 80%. What happens to these legacy players
who you're also partnering with? Yeah. Well, I think that, you know, they will adapt. You know,
everyone will adapt to the new model. I think the same goes away. I think the security lakehouse,
this open security lakehouse becomes the next way in which you actually defend. We also
launched an ecosystem for that reason. We call it the open security lake house
ecosystem and we have many partners as part of that but I think this is going
to be the way of the future. If we don't do it this way I think many
organizations will actually crumble because there's so much attacks coming.
So it feels like cybersecurity is just the beginning, considering how much data you're sitting on.
And you said yourself that you are going to be part
of the software disruption.
What does that mean?
What's next?
Well, what do you need for this new era, this agentic era?
Well, you need a platform where you can build agents.
Databricks has that.
You still need the database for system of record.
We have that as well.
That's LakeBase that we launched. That's our transactional database that we launched
last year. And then we need a data platform where you can have all of your data.
So we have the three ingredients that you need essentially for any SaaS
application. So you know for us those SaaS applications that make sense and
we're starting here with Sim, we want to build them and we want to go for it. Yes
this disruption will happen and you know I think we'll be part of that as well we will partake in it so what do you tell you have tens of thousands
of customers you have lots of software customers as well how do you make this not threatening for
them how do you convince them to stay on your platform you don't need to hear the rest of that
i mean i would really attribute this as someone talking
their book right he's trying to sell his product so he's going to instill a lot of fear out there
to kind of push his product out there but he has a little bit of a point right i don't know
if databricks is going to be directly responsible for destroying cm uh but i just did share that
graphic of a few stocks that or a few companies that are involved in this particular
sector uh let's actually see here real quick i'll give a second to talk about it so you have a few
companies that are in here you have datadog i don't know why datadog isn't in here because
that's something that they definitely do talk about a lot you have splunk spunk already went
private i believe ibm purchased them and took them private microsoft a small portion of the business
is in this google also has a small portion of the business is in this. Google also has a small portion of the business in this. Crowdshag is getting into it. Elastic
is already in there. Palo Alto. It's not really, oh, there's Datadog right there. It's not really
something that a company is like full fledged involved in, but I think the most exposure when
it comes to this are basically software monitoring stocks. So Datadog is down about 4% today. So
that could be the reason why you're starting to see that impact but i'll really argue that a lot of software is
actually impacted by this because if they're going to go for um security incident and event management
they're probably going to go for the whole belt and that's basically what the ceo of
databricks is actually saying in this interview i wanted to um i wanted to share something over here real quick because i didn't take a look at
particular software stocks when i was showing a little bit of the sell-off that we had over here
so like i mentioned earlier igv is down about 3.64 percent and we did have that come here where
it back tested the 20 at 20 day moving average and it looked like it failed it i thought maybe
was going to come by the come back here and then bounce off it, but it didn't.
But that is okay.
I'm certainly still not trying to buy the dip in a lot of software stocks out here.
There are a few software stocks that have been leading lately.
One of them has been DigitalOcean, so that's still pretty up there.
Cloudflare, that's pretty up there.
So is Fastly, that's pretty up there.
Fastly is actually, it almost turned green today for a second.
Paycom is probably something that I would definitely stay away from in terms of software
because this is more of a payroll management.
But what Paycom really makes a lot of money off of is that they do have a software that's
out there and they do have an AI agent that sits on
top of that called Betty. Betsy, I think is actually the name of it. And they make their
money off people making changes or revisions to their ADP payrolls. Now, the thing is that they
have already made an initiative, not intentionally, but to automate certain processes by selling their
AI agent that sits on top of it, Betty, but it just means
that people might not need to contact Paycom or their support in order to resolve any issues that
they have. But I think the going thing here is that if you do have software basically getting
disrupted by AI, this could be a potential target when it comes to payroll processing.
high AI, this could be a potential target when it comes to payroll processing. Not really the best
place where I'd want to put my money in. Also, Paycom does have a lot of clients that are in
small and medium-sized businesses, so it could add to that further volatility. Salesforce is down
about 5% today. A very big drop in Salesforce. Datadog is down about 5%, which is more of the
CM monitoring that I was talking about earlier. Dynatrace is also in that same sector as Datadog.
So that one is getting hit.
Yeah, a lot of these software stocks are getting hit pretty nastily.
Service now pulling back quite a good amount here.
You guys already know I'm not too bullish on Workday at all.
I think this is very open disruption.
Same thing with Atlassian, but I think the market sees that as well.
Snowflake is down about 7% today, getting close to making
another low over there. And a lot of cybersecurity is down again. So software is definitely not the
place that you want to be according to the stock market, whether you want to buy the dip or not.
I mean, go ahead. I'm not trying to buy the dip or catch any knives in software stocks. I'd rather
buy the things that are leading right now, which I've showed you a few other stocks. So we also
had today that shift for,
oh, actually, hold on a second. I wanted to touch on something on this chart over here,
because this has been on a crazy run lately. This stock called VCX, which is the Fundrise
Innovation Fund that Fundrise did start. This is about 20% anthropic. And the crazy thing about
this is that it just did IPO recently. The crazy thing about this is that you're paying such a premium to buy this fund, right?
Even though 20% of the fund is in Anthropic, you're making the assumption that Anthropic
is worth $4 trillion, which is very crazy.
I mean, a lot of people are really chasing a lot of these exposures to anthropic.
I mean, there's also Destiny,
which does have some skin anthropic.
It's not really as much as VCX.
So hold on, I'm going to see Destiny DXYZ Holdings.
dxyz holdings let's uh let's take a look over here real quick
Let's take a look over here real quick.
all right so let's take a look at their holdings it's 17 spacex 4 shield xai
revolute actually had very good news today um anthropic anthropic anthropic where is
Anthropic, Anthropic, where is, maybe they just added it?
Hold on.
I'm trying to find how much this has in Anthropic, $ million dollar investment anthropic so they have a hundred
million dollars in anthropic and i don't know this is a very high fee these really are not the
vehicles that i want to look to to invest in a lot of these private securities and it just i'd be
very concerned about holding these things long term i mean maybe if you've gotten it very early
you could probably hold on to it but it's's exposure to anything other than SpaceX is very low and SpaceX is going to be going public
soon. Maybe it might catch a little bit of a bid because the thing is up about 8% today,
but I think a lot of this is really with the hype that we're seeing with the VCX Fundrise ETF.
So I know that's happened over there so anyways for the next segment i want to
move on to shift four this is up about 17 today oh wow this is actually up about 25 today rejected
the uh 50-day moving average over here and kind of pulling back a little bit but we did have a
lot of announcements that nasa is going to go to the moon again and the uh jared isaac man i i forget i think he's the director of NASA. I think that's the name of the
title. He did have an interview lately with Bloomberg, I believe. So let me pull up that
interview real quick and we'll go ahead and check that out. Yeah, it is Bloomberg. It's only about
a minute long for the segment that they did bring for us. The resources, are we concentrating in the
right direction? Are we doing a lot of little things and getting nowhere, right? So we talked for us. manufacturing. We want to test out mobility on the surface. We want to build President Trump's
move base that he called for in the national space policy. We have the resources to do this. We have a
lot of resources at NASA. We just need to move them in the needle moving direction. It's 20 billion
over seven years, but all told over the decade, 30 billion. Is this something that you've been able
to meet with Congress about and appropriate the funds through that mechanism?
Or it's just in the budget. It's planned based on the annual appropriation that you outlined.
This is within the resource available. And of course, we try and subscribe to a no surprise policy.
So we never formulate these type of initiatives in a vacuum.
We've met with our international partners that are supporting us in our great return to the moon.
our international partners that are supporting us in our great return to the moon.
We've met with leaders from authorizers in Congress, the appropriators, the White House.
Everybody gets fully aligned around how we're going to achieve this.
We talk about these kinds of dollars and you look at it across our budget.
This is just small percentages of it.
We definitely have the means within the resource available to achieve this
oh looks like the sound stopped over there all right so um it's very exciting there's a lot of
space stuff happening now you know the united states space with trapelle show freaking love
that clip but anyways um there's a lot obviously a lot of excitement here
spacex is going to go ipo you're hearing things about redwire rocket lab estera i've started
serra labs um ast space mobile and a lot of these other space companies very exciting stuff but
there's a lot of hype that's involved with this right we already had the announcement and there's
more leadership being built behind the curve when it comes to rock lab asts a lot of these space
stocks that's really pushing these stocks up because in this narrow market regime that we have right now
where it is majorly a stock pickers market you do have the leaders continuing to lead
so don't confuse hype with reality okay so reality is that nasa is not going to send
someone to the moon in six months
there's going to be a lot of investment toward it yes but reality is that a lot of these stocks
are trading very expensive again do your own due diligence personally i'm not really a buyer today
of space stocks the best time to buy it would have been the beginning of the year i might have
missed that and it honestly guys it's better to not chase certain things. But if you are going to maybe dollar cost average or something, if you really believe in the thesis
for a long-term gain, otherwise you might be sitting on very little gains for the next few
years because nothing ever goes up in a straight line. I would wait a little bit. And this is the
reason why, you know, I did say on the stream before that, look, you have a lot of these data center stocks pumping
lately, or at least not really much anymore, but it was pumping before. You had Nebius up here in
$130. You had IREN all the way up over here around $45. It's a little bit lower now. You had a lot
of the data center stocks pumping and people were like, oh, I don't want to miss this boat here.
But if you just waited the the day after you could have gotten
a lot cheaper around $110, but I would even say like, look, nothing
goes up at a straight line and leadership is very narrow in the market.
So it's possible.
These might be more resilient than others.
However, guys, like let's think a little bit more long-term here.
If you're not doing the swing trading, seeing how volatile the market is
today, seeing that the queues are basically back down
here, about 50 base splints, we're under the 200 day moving average, SPY is under the 200 day
moving average. So on the VIX is near $30. Have some patience here. You don't need to chase the
moves of things that are working. If you do want to chase those moves, maybe wait for a pullback
to get in, which is similar to what I did with circle today and other things that I'm doing right
now. But I would say that you still kind of want to like, wait for that
opportunity to happen. And whether it's today, I'm going to wait for the opportunity to happen.
And whether it's today or whether it's in a week or in two weeks, three weeks, that's okay. Like
I still have my long-term portfolio, which I don't really touch those holdings and those remain core
holdings. And maybe like trim a little bit off of it.
But for the most part, I am more than most part long the market.
Like I'm not really someone who just goes all cash or anything.
However, if I'm going to do some swing trading now, it's not really the best environment
to do a whole lot of string trading.
Like there might be some opportunities here and there and I'll stop myself off if it does
come back to my entry level, but I'm not going to be like trying to shoot for the stars every
single two seconds. I'm going to be quick to take profit if i do see it happen or i'm going to
trim it down to a very small runner where i could just like let it run but that that's just the
going river that comes to trading and i do dabble a little bit in that but when it comes to like
big dip buying in certain companies this really is not the market where i want to be like 100
This really is not the market where I want to be like 100% invested or maybe like 20% in margin.
This doesn't scream like an opportunity for me in this market.
So I just try to avoid to make those impulse decisions.
Finally, we do have Circle, which I did mention.
Circle was actually down a lot today based off of some news that we did receive regarding the
Clarity Act. Let me actually share this tweet that Shai did share earlier. So Circle falls 15%
after the Clarity Act deal signs no yield on stablecoin balances by allowing only activity
based rewards. That week is a key part of the bull case by making USDC harder to evolve from
payments utility into a real world to store value. You could see that a circle was trading $108. It actually is a lot lower today.
Circle is $101 right now. Oh crud, that's actually getting close to my entry right there. So maybe
I'll have to stop myself up for the other day, but I might let that one ride for a little bit,
see what happens because I don't want to have an impulse reaction if it does pull back a little bit.
I'll leave myself a little bit of wiggle room in case it does pull back over here.
We have the 50 EMA over here at $95.
That could be a potential place to get stopped at, if anything.
I don't want to stop myself out too much too early, but this has been pretty strong for quite some time in the last in the last month like in the last
less than a yeah in the last month this thing has basically doubled in the last month and pulled
back and a lot of people really wanted to chase it up here and i bought it over here at 117 i sold
it like 128 and like for a minute i was like regretting everything and then look look comes
back so it gives me another opportunity to get back and do a little bit of a trade there but
you know again like these are not this isn't to move the needle in my account a whole lot.
Yeah, it might give me like a percentage of gain if it does make a run here.
But, you know, the big holdings of my portfolio, like the Amazons, Zeta and a few other things,
and Amcor and Onset McConnect, there are pretty big portion of my portfolio.
core and on same again, there are pretty big portion of my portfolio. So it doesn't kind of
So it doesn't kind of balance things out.
balance things out, but like these little swing trades that I do, like they're more to just to
try to catch the bottom on what's actually already leading. Like you're not going to see me try to
call the bottom on a certain companies like service now and stuff. Like I bought service
now beer when I was at 128, 20 bucks. And I stopped myself off around 118 bucks and went a little bit
lower, right? You got to be careful. You're trying to catch the falling knives and these things if anything but uh some things that i did buy the dip on
was uh fastly when it came up over here i actually got the idea of this from venu um i follow him on
twitter and he pointed out a few things about this so i looked into it seemed like a pretty good buy
especially when it bounced off the nine ema sorry sorry, the nine EMA over here. It was actually up here where I bought it. And it's been doing well since then.
You had another opportunity to add over here, another opportunity to add here,
another opportunity to add here, but this is still very extended. So took some profits on
this yesterday before the close and it's continued to trade pretty, pretty monstrously
compared to the stock market. But these other ones, like I would not try to buy the dip on things that are just trending downward like git lab or iot or anything like that actually
hold on a second iot might be pretty decent over here might need to look into that one but like
things like clavio like these are breaking down again monday.com this is basically basing out
over here uh service now this broke down again um you know this is kind of controversial for myself
i already do have a position built out for zeta, but I'm not looking to add any right
now, so I'm just going to hold on to that position.
But yeah, a lot of things are just falling off cliff over here, like CRM, Adobe, and
so on.
You guys already were on the stream when I bought Adobe.
I bought Adobe around 330 bucks.
Felt great for a minute when it came all the way over here, and then it broke down again
and stopped myself out after I rejected this nine EMA and look,
look where it's been.
It's just been going down.
Right.
So no, there are things that I have as a swing trade and there are things that
I have a long-term holding.
Usually the long-term holdings have a bigger stomach for, but string trades,
I will cut those things off if I have to, because I don't want to be back
holding those things.
So I think, um, I think that does it about it for the stream.
Obviously, there's a lot more that's going to be happening this week.
I guarantee you there's going to be more tweets going to be coming out of Trump or more truths that are going to be coming out of Trump throughout the Western week.
I mean, the ironic thing is that they call it truths because it's from Truth Social.
But we don't even know if it's on the truth or not so who knows but you know it's it's a very this is not an easy
market anyone who can tell you that they traded the ups and downs of this market like a pro
i would not follow those people because no one is able to profit in every single possible direction
in this market because even the wealthiest fund managers out there are having difficulty on
themselves all i know is that actually let's take a look at the charts of spy real quick to see what we're working with over here um like i
mentioned before we rejected the 200-day moving average we moved down lower and i pointed this
out yesterday that this isn't really the most bullish setup we opened lower today can't seem
to find any strength uh with spy for the queues situation. If you take a look at the weekly charts on the Qs,
we did bounce off the 50 EMA on the weekly,
which is good to see.
But still, it does not look that great
because you have these EMAs curling down over here.
The 50 EMA is about to curl down.
The 20-day moving average is curling down.
The 50 is probably going to curl down soon.
And you have a lot of other moving averages on the weekly.
If you look at the daily, they're all pretty much curling down.
This is not a bullish setup, in my opinion.
This looks more like a long-term bearish trend.
Yeah, the markets are kind of bleeding a little bit.
So this is why leadership is very much narrow in the market.
Because if I look at the sectors in the S&P 500 over here, you could see that, look, even in the sector basis,
the defensives are leading the market. You have materials that are up about 2% today. You have
industrials up about 1% today. You have staples flat today. And then you have XLK and XLY, which
are your tech, also XLC, which is down pretty nastily today in utilities. So defensives are
continuing to lead the market today. And ironically, semiconductors just seem to be leading. So, you know, just sitting on the
things that work, not trying to liquidate the portfolio or anything, but I would say guys,
it's okay to not make any moves when it comes to the stock market, right? You don't need to try to
catch all falling knives or buy the dips that you're doing in trade or anything. Just kind of
wait and see what's going to happen. Because because right now a lot of people are not trying to trade the stock market there was
a there was a post that i saw the other day where you basically had a lot of day trading just reduced
to a minimum lately and the zotte trading has reduced to a minimum as well there's definitely
a lot of people sitting on the stock market and if this thing is kind of giving you headaches
make you a little bit nauseous as it goes back and forth, I would do the same as well. Just kind of observe what's happening over here.
If you're enjoying this video, guys, go ahead and like and subscribe to the channel. This is
a solid report. We are on four days a week over here at 2.45 PM for about an hour. After this,
you guys can go ahead and enjoy yourself and watch Ahmed live on the market close. I'm probably
going to watch that myself as well.
Going to take a look and see what's happening over there.
I believe today you do have some earnings from, let's see here.
GameStop reports earnings today.
So does Braze reports earnings today.
KB Home.
And yeah, that's basically it.
There really is not much reporting nowadays.
Tomorrow morning, or I guess it would be tonight since I'm on the West Coast,
you have PDD reporting today, not PDD, PDD Holdings.
You have Chui reporting today after close,
and you have a company called Paychex reporting today.
I wonder how that's going to go.
Interesting.
But yeah, guys, stay safe out there.
Try not to get too involved where it stresses you out. To be honest,
and I'll be completely honest, it has stressed me out quite a bit lately, has kind of, you know,
made me a little bit concerned about the stock market. But once I kind of took that step back
a couple of weeks back and I tried to be a little bit more or less active in the stock market,
it did make a lot of things better. Also, it's good to have a buy list, right? Or it's good to
have a watch list of things you want to buy in case things do tick down a little bit lower.
So that does it about it, guys.
Really appreciate you tuning in here.
Thanks for tuning in.
Go ahead and check out the other videos on the Wolf YouTube channel, also my channel as well.
I am planning on releasing another video later on this week for the weekend as well,
and probably going to do a little collaboration with Steve or Ahmed later on.
All right, guys, take care.
