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THE STOCK MARKET IS BACK!!!
Recorded: April 22, 2024 Duration: 2:05:19Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody. I hope you guys are excited for the stock market to be open again. I know that I am. It should be an interesting week with all the craziness that we have coming around with earnings season and a couple macro headlines and a lot of other stuff going on this week. I may take part of this Monday morning, go through some of the biggest stories and catalysts and stuff that you should be watching for the week going forward, talk about some of the new stories, and I'm sure we'll get Kevin in here at some point and he'll go through all the different high-level stuff that's going on.
He is watching for this upcoming week.
But if you guys are one of the, what, 22 people in here just at the start of the Spaces 29, go in, throw a comment down in that Spaces chat, the purple. Actually, it's just a little chat bubble on the bottom right of your screen.
But yeah, throw some questions, thoughts, anything you want down there and I'll look through them. I also have that Discord room that I promoted. If you're in that, go in, throw some thoughts in there and we'll use that as a live chat. Let me pull that Discord up.
But for now, let's talk through some of the biggest stories that you guys should be watching for this upcoming week. Let's get that earnings calendar pinned up in the nest above. For me, that is the biggest one.
Now, I actually filtered through the earnings calendar for what I just pinned up there. It should take a second, but it is going to be up there now.
Now, I filtered through just really kind of a lot of the major stocks and I took out some other ones. Good morning, CryptoDegen.
So, pinned up in the nest above is that earnings calendar with a lot of the biggest names.
After the close, well, this morning we have Verizon and Truist Financial, which I can read out those numbers for you.
After the close today, we have SAP, Cadence, Nucor, and Alexandra Realty.
Big ones for the week, Tesla, Tesla Tuesday after the close, Facebook Wednesday after the close, Google and Microsoft Thursday after the close.
Now, there's a lot of other names reporting.
Pepsi, GE, Boeing should be a really fun one to watch, more fun than going on their planes.
Caterpillar, ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.
So, there's a lot of names that we'll be reporting earnings this week and a lot of stuff that you need to keep on your radar.
As far as the more macro events coming on this week, today I'm not really seeing anything on my radar.
Tomorrow we have some PMI data, which will be good for those traders in there around 9.45am, but I don't think we'll add too much.
The real headlines for this week is going to be Thursday morning.
We have GDP.
I believe this is the final revision to Q1 GDP.
Let me actually get that in front of me.
Well, this didn't help.
Maybe it's the final revision to Q4 GDP, actually.
Increased annual, increased point to the third estimate.
Okay, no.
So, I think this is actually going to be the first estimate of Q1 GDP.
That took a lot.
I'm going to shut up now.
There is a GDP print that's coming out Thursday morning.
So, keep an eye on that one.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it is the first print of Q1 GDP, but let's see if I'm right.
Moving on past that one, PCE.
This is the Fed's preferred inflation index.
This is what Jerome Powell and the Fed will be looking at most.
Oh, Lily, yeah.
I would love to get you up here.
But yeah, that PCE number is what Jerome Powell and the Fed are looking for to the most, so definitely keep an eye on that one.
It's quoted as the Fed's preferred inflation index, so definitely keep that one on your radar.
One more time, GDP Thursday morning, 8.30 a.m. Eastern, PCE 8.30 a.m. Eastern on Friday.
I want to go through my Catalyst watch now and just talk through one or two of the biggest events from the day.
Then I want to go through some of the big news from the morning that I've already seen, and I would love to bring in some of the amazing people that we have on this basis.
Lily, let's get an invite over to Emperor Door.
You know, even on Wall Street Engine, we'll see what you got coming for us.
Today, we have, looking at my Catalyst watch, Total Energies, TTE board expected to decide on resolution to split roles between CEO and chairman.
The World Energy Conference in Rotterdam will include talks by Saudi Aramco CEO and Total Energy CEO, so energy stocks.
And Evan, didn't Total announce a deal with Oman this morning, I think?
I did not see that one.
I won't lie to you, the oil and gas area, it's just too much geopolitical stuff going on for me to actually be able to follow it and be understanding everything in the sector.
Is this deal to acquire 50% stake in Sapura OMB upstream for $530 million?
No, let me find it, because I thought I saw something last night flagging Oman with Total, so let me go find it real quick.
I am seeing a deal with them, and I wonder, oh yeah, no, this is it, this is it.
Oh, Technip FMC wins substantial contract for Total Energies, OQs, and Marsa LNG project in Oman.
Award representing between $500 million to $1 billion, I believe that is Euros, is what they're quoting it in.
So, okay, interesting one.
There definitely was something there with them.
Besides that, WTI crude May futures will expire.
The crypto world will have its eyes on a three-day world blockchain summit in Dubai.
That one should be interesting.
Continuing on this week, there's some stuff with Cleveland Cliffs and General Motors tomorrow.
Keep those ones on watch.
I'm actually going to stop it there.
The Stripe session conference will include talks by Stripe CEO, NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang, will be speaking tomorrow.
So keep that one on your radar.
And from there, I'm actually going to circle over to some of the biggest news stories that I saw this morning that I was following.
Now, we did have UBS today downgrading what they're calling the big six plus tech stocks.
So they basically did the Magnificent Seven minus Tesla.
And it was also funny.
I saw a graphic this morning from CNBC talking about mega cap tech and big tech having earnings this week.
And they didn't include Tesla as well.
So I think that the Wall Street might be shifting away from Tesla as one of those Mag Seven names.
So we'll keep that one on my radar.
I'm still going to include it, but you never know.
But yeah, UBS today downgraded.
Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon, and Facebook all too neutral.
From overweight with various different price targets.
We also had Verizon earnings this morning, as I was talking about.
Beat on EPS, missed on revenue.
The forward guidance is more or less in line with expectations slightly above.
My guess, Verizon's down 1%.
It's up 1.7%.
Fair enough.
And then I did see an interesting graph this morning from Bloomberg in their morning newsletter.
The market is now pricing in a 30% chance that the Fed does not cut rates at all this year.
While it's now pricing in a 20% chance that they cut rates more than three times this year.
Three or more times.
So that has changed quite drastically.
It kind of had a shift over.
The probability is flipped, we'll call it, on like April 16th, 15th, 14th, around then.
But yeah, the market is now closer to pricing in zero rate cuts than three plus rate cuts this year.
Definitely something to keep an eye out on.
There was a couple other stories from over the weekend.
A lot regarding Tesla.
And Tesla is actually down a couple percentage points in today's pre-market trading.
A couple percentage points.
It's almost under 140, down almost 5% in the day.
So Tesla is definitely getting beat up a little bit.
There was a lot of stock news around that one.
Obviously, they report earnings tomorrow.
They lowered the price of their full self-driving to $8,000 from $12,000.
We know previously they cut the monthly cost to $100 from $200.
And then they changed the price.
They lowered the starting price of the Model Y, the Model S, and the Model X in the U.S.
by $2,000, all trims.
They cut prices in China a little bit.
There was a lot of news around Tesla over the weekend.
Elon Musk was supposed to go in and meet Indian Prime Minister Modi, but he had to delay that trip, saying there was a lot going on around Tesla.
So that was an interesting one.
And I'm continuing to watch that company.
It's on my radar.
They have earnings tomorrow, so it should be a good one.
And, yeah, there was also a vote from the U.S. House on defense spending bills.
So for Ukraine, Israel, both of those were in there.
There was also part of that was a TikTok ban, possibly.
And there was a fourth aspect to it.
And it's slipping my mind right now, but there's four things in that one.
I'm sure either Lily or Kevin will bring that up.
But, Lily, you were up here first.
I appreciate you joining me on the Spaces.
Spaces, what are you watching today?
What's on your radar?
I think as far as, like, this week, the thing that I'm watching the most is really I kind of want to see what happens.
You mentioned, like, the TikTok part, right?
Like, that still has to go to the Senate.
But I think we're going to hear from companies like Meta, right, with what they think is going, you know, like a little bit of geopolitical insight from them, hopefully, especially with China, you know, halting, asking the App Store to remove WhatsApp and threads.
Last week, you had the Chinese ambassador to Canada basically recalled really quickly.
You had some other things going on while there was the Iran-Iraq news, like, late Thursday, early Friday morning, right?
So, like, that's one of the things that I'm looking to see is what some of these companies have to say about what they're seeing from their perspective.
You know what I found really interesting was Elon's comments semi-recently.
It was probably more dig at Meta than anything else, but he was saying that he does not think TikTok should be banned.
And his reasoning was it would make Facebook Meta in general just more powerful, which is an interesting take from someone who would probably directly benefit up there in the most from a ban on TikTok.
Well, part of it's, right, if it gets divested or, you know, like a U.S. company has control over a part of it.
So that could actually benefit somebody else besides just Meta, right?
And it could also benefit – I think I read some things about some of the AI companies being able to train off of it if it's U.S.
So there's some other benefits around it depending on what happens.
How dare the Chinese take our data?
We want to take our data and use it, you know?
There you go.
Kevin, what's your thoughts on the whole TikTok thing going over the weekend?
And just in general, what are you watching today?
Appreciate you joining us.
Good morning, sir.
Excited for the stock market to be back.
Yeah, definitely.
Anyway, you know, the TikTok thing, it's going to take a long time to go through the courts.
I mean, it's kind of a little bit unprecedented in a sense.
So I don't think we're going to see any type of immediate action.
As soon as the bill gets signed into law, I would suspect that the company would then file a stay for an hour until it works through the courts.
That would have to probably go up through the Supreme Court, and that could take some time, right?
And, you know, as time goes on, there could be a settlement.
There could be a structure settlement for it.
There could be, you know, politics could change by then.
So, I mean, there's a lot that goes through it, goes with it.
So I'm not, like, really too concerned about it or too happy about it.
I mean, I could care less about TikTok.
I think it would be a windfall there for Meta.
I think from a stock standpoint, I think a lot of people have been utilizing this news to be able to generate some alpha on that side.
But overall, once again, I'm not a legal expert, so I don't even know, like, the legalities of it per se.
But I would just suspect that it would take a long time for us to get this through the court system before we see a final judgment.
I could actually see this one.
The court system, you're correct.
I'm in the same boat.
I don't know much about being aware or whatever.
But it feels like it's going to get passed through Senate.
The fact that they combined it with the Ukraine aid package, which gives the Democrats a little bit what they want in that area, it just feels like they combined it.
This is the right bill to get through.
And it's a compromise for everyone.
But I'm actually surprised we're at this point.
Yeah, I mean, it'll pass as a law.
It'll get signed into law.
I mean, that's going to definitely happen because they attached it to other items, right?
What I'm saying is, even though if it passes through law and Biden still signs it, I think that immediate action in the courts will be taken in order to stay the current status quo right now until it works to the court system.
And I think that's going to take a long time just for us to be able to sort it out.
I think there's a misconception right now that as soon as it gets signed into law that it's immediately going to be effective and Biden is going to have to take action.
That's not going to be the case.
Even though they're a foreign company in some respects, they still enjoy the rights of U.S. citizens because they operate here.
They have an arm here, right?
And so if you're going to dynamically change their business, they have the ability to utilize the court system in order to challenge that.
And I would be very surprised the court would force any type of divestiture before a final ruling was going to be made, which ultimately will probably have to go through the Supreme Court.
ByteDance has enough.
ByteDance didn't really fight it last time, though, when, you know, Trump kind of gave them a little bit of an ultimatum-ish.
Yeah, but this is a law compared to like, I think what Trump was doing was more like jawboning and like trying to force it by rhetoric rather than force it by action.
This is actually a legal, you know what I'm saying?
Like this is now going to be a law that changes it, a completely different dynamic.
And nothing against Donald Trump, but that's how he operated in several different respects, like the China deal that they had with grains, right?
Like there was an intent for China to purchase all these grains and agricultural products and things of that nature.
The intent was out there.
He signed an intent to do so, but intent is not an actual contractual agreement.
And China backed out on that as well, didn't fulfill any of the obligation.
I think they purchased all of like 5% of whatever the obligations were.
Because it wasn't like legally ratified, right?
So I think that's, I think that's the different landscape.
And then also just keep in mind too, this is a political season.
Things change.
Our rhetoric changes and you'll see the ebb and flow.
Just like border policy ebbs and flows, depending on the political cycle, every three years becomes a bigger issue.
And China is the same way.
It's an issue to be able to provide red meat to battleground states.
And then after the fact, whoever's in power tends to back down or, and I wouldn't say back down, but tends to slow roll processes of trying to put pressure on China.
I honestly, you know, for me, I believe that that's happening right now.
We saw the same thing with Biden twice.
I saw the same thing with Trump once, Biden, did I say Obama or Biden?
Obama was first, Trump, okay, sorry.
Very, very tough morning.
It's Monday.
It's Monday.
Yeah, well, like, dude, I mess up because, like, I take these, like, Sunday, you know, I'm not chilling on Sundays and then, like, I take a nap at, like, 4 o'clock and then I wake up at, like, 9.30 at night.
Yeah, like, right.
So I'm kind of, like, all off.
You should be trading futures with us today.
Come on.
What are you doing?
I'm always trading.
Yeah, like, Sunday night is Monday.
I'm always trading.
I mean, right.
Kevin has the D-Gen schedule.
He's making sure he's up and ready to trade futures Sunday night.
Mark gets back.
Kevin's back.
Yeah, but basically what I'm saying is that, yeah, this time is different.
So let's see.
I think, once again, they'll take the legal side of it.
It could take a year or even two years to actually get it up to the Supreme Court, especially what they have on, like, the docket right now.
Some very controversial issues.
So I don't think that we see any type of immediate changes anytime soon when it comes to the business operations.
I just want to say, like, I think that what you're saying is important on several issues because I know some other things that I pay attention to, right?
There's political posturing.
There's announcement of something, right?
There's supposedly money going, but it actually hasn't been directed anywhere.
There's no, you know, like, goals.
There's no objectives yet.
So the money is not actually going to be flowing to maybe companies that would be involved in it quite yet, right?
It's there as a voter issue, and we'll see what actually happens with it.
So I think that that's important to pay attention to when you're looking at things from a political perspective.
Yeah, it's like another example of this real quick, we can kind of move on, is, like, the student loan forgiveness stuff that Biden's trying to implement, right?
There's a lot of action that's being talked about, but are we actually seeing it while it's being tied up in courts right now, too?
So, once again, rhetoric compared to actual physical action that's taking place, and then the results of how the legal system can drag out these issues for months, if not years, in order for them to get resolved, even though, once again, it's red meat for the political season.
Kevin, I intrude you into that TikTok talk.
TikTok talk, there we go, say that 10 times fast, especially on a Monday morning.
But what else are you watching today?
Anything else catching your radar?
I know this week in general, we have, like, a PCE coming up on Friday, GDP, which could be interesting for you.
I saw a graph this morning from Bloomberg talking about how the market is now pricing in a higher chance of the Fed cuts rates zero times this year versus cutting rates three plus times.
And that was obviously the base case.
That was the options implied probability of the Fed cutting three or more times back in January was up around 80%.
And now we're down at 20% with a chance of zero rate cuts coming in as a more likely probability.
But I just wanted to hear what you're watching this morning, what's on radar for your week.
And yeah.
Yeah.
Obviously, it's going to be earnings this week.
I think it could be a driver for us to try to rebound here.
Obviously, we had some selling off last week.
You know, that 5,000 level, losing that was actually a pretty significant area of support that we lost.
But if you actually look at the underlying, like, structure on Friday's trade, it was actually fairly constructive for now.
And here's the reason why I say that.
Yes, Megacap names sold off.
We know what happened with ASML.
We know what happened with NVIDIA.
NVIDIA is correcting at this point in time.
But you also saw some green shoots when it came to utilities.
Utilities have actually, like, outperformed last week.
And what was actually very odd is that utilities were actually moving up in value when it comes to the appreciation of stock or the ETFs, if you will.
But interest rates also went up.
And there's actually an inverse relationship between the two because utilities really have a battle, basically, when it comes to interest rates.
As interest rates go higher, utility companies become less attractive because their yields are less attractive.
And if you're looking at the XLU is trading at around, let's say, 3.3% dividend yield, where you have a two-year treasury that's down there 5%, right, give or take, two basis points or so.
So seeing the utility sector actually increase and move up in value was actually very interesting.
I did write about it.
I'm a little late this morning.
So I have, like, a weekly market prep that I write.
That's actually a focus of it.
And then also consumer staples is another component that I'm keeping my eye out on.
But I believe we had around six sectors that were positive on Friday.
We had 341 stocks that were actually positive out of the S&P 500.
So bloodbath on the surface, if you're looking at price action, but on the internals, it's not a broad-based market sell-off.
It's not this capitulation type of moment that we would typically see in these type of downturns.
Now, that could also indicate that we're not done yet when it comes to selling.
Or that also can indicate that the market might still be buying these dips or maybe allocating a little bit differently moving forward.
So I'm looking to see what that price reaction is going to be for this week.
We have the earnings.
We all know what they are.
Tesla, I think, is going to be a very interesting one, to say the least, because we should have a kitchen sink type of quarter.
I think we did see, like, a news article over the weekend.
They splashed prices again, which doesn't really help out when it comes to their margins.
But I think everybody is really looking forward to the conference call, what's happening with this robot taxi situation.
What's happening in India?
Are you guys doing the expansion?
Is it still something that is on the table?
I think that will be a really good question.
I'm walking during also the two-year.
So we talked about the Fed fund rate and being cut, or the Fed's doing cuts this year.
And the market's really basically backing that out.
You can see that within the two-year treasury.
So two-year treasury is trading at around 5%.
Now, a discount window of Fed funds right now are sitting at around 5.3%, give or take.
How high can the two-year go?
It can go to whatever the Fed funds rate is going at right now, right?
It's a normalization of that curve.
We saw like a really nice bear steeper earlier in the week.
Well, it's not nice.
Bear steepers are really tough for equity markets, meaning the longer end of the curve,
the 10-year, 20-year, 30s, move up in re-yields higher or faster at a faster rate than short duration.
But towards the end of the week, there was actually this weird reverse.
It was like this weird parabolic move where the long end of the curve was still moving up higher rates.
The shorter end of the curve, the two-year, started to accelerate higher rates as well.
But if you're looking at the middle of that curve, the seven-year, didn't see that much action.
So the bond market is definitely trying to reprice.
The equity market's coming to that realization that a strong dollar over 104.5,
if you're looking at the dollar index, is going to be tough.
You're looking at a 10-year sitting at 4.6, give or take.
That is going to be tough as well.
And we might have a situation where we do slow the economy, and maybe the Fed's going to be late,
maybe cutting too early.
Who knows?
Like, that's what the market's trying to price in.
I will write something this week, though.
There is a – there's this weird window that we will have for the August data,
meaning that it's going to be published in September.
But for the August month for CPI, pretty much all of the inflationary metrics,
August and then the September area, and maybe even July.
I'll have to see some of the other comps.
But there will be a window where the Fed is going to look like rock stars,
where they could actually utilize that window to initiate their first cut to get it out of the way.
And then maybe they wait for the subsequent cuts coming down the road.
So is the market completely pricing out?
Should we just completely think that the Fed's not going to cut rates this year?
You can do that for sure.
I mean, position for that, and if you get cuts, it's just icing on the cake.
But once again, they are going to have this weird window because of base effect
that they could seize upon.
I think that would be – I'm not going to call it deceiving, right?
It's not deceiving, but you can leverage some of the natural tendencies with the statistical data
to be able to reinforce your narrative to be able to cut.
And the Fed does have that opportunity.
If they do so, let's see.
I think the market probably would be okay with it, even though I think, once again,
it kind of is a little bit misleading.
But the base effects alone, I think, is going to be a key thing.
You have a PCE on Friday.
I'll have to see – I looked at some of the estimates this weekend.
Usually, I don't really focus on the estimates until we get to Wednesday.
We have some shifting around.
We get some earlier data this week.
We may have the market try to reprice.
If the market is bracing for a little bit of a hot print now, we haven't seen this huge
acceleration on the headline PCE yet, like we've seen for CPI or PPI, right?
And it could take some time.
Usually, it could take actually up to three months for it to actually show up in PCE.
So that might be something they brace for here in the near term.
But I think the market already understands that inflation is happening, no matter what PCE says.
So that's – and you guys already kind of probably went over the earnings.
I'm not going to dwell on that.
But this week's focus, obviously, what are the yields doing?
I look at the 10-year.
I'm also focusing on the 2-year, looking at those dynamics, looking at the U.S. dollar.
Does it break 107, which if it does, then that bad boy is hitting probably 109 fairly soon here.
But does the dollar kind of stay at this particular level?
And then what are utilities doing for price action?
What are consumer staples doing for price action?
And that's what I got.
So I'll kick it back over to you.
Appreciate you, as always, Kevin.
Interesting headline just out.
CoStar, CSGP, has agreed to acquire Matterport, MTTR.
Matterport was one of those names that really became like, oh, they're going to change the world with all their VR stuff and all that things at some point.
They're getting acquired at a value that – a transaction that values the company at $5.50 per share.
It's currently trading at $1.75.
Wasn't a lot of those tied to real estate?
Matterport operates a spatial data company that focuses on digitalizing and indexing the built world.
Yeah, that sounds a little bit real estate-y there.
Yeah, I think they were – one of their really big areas, if I remember correctly, was walkthroughs for realtors.
The 3D stuff.
Interesting.
I do enjoy a good 3D walkthrough when I'm looking through the 3Ds here or the other stuff compared to just pictures.
But interesting.
The market cap's around $540 million.
I don't see – you can look into the debt, but the enterprise value of this company is getting acquired is $1.6 billion.
So it seems like a decent premium off of what's happening there.
So I want to dig into that report a little bit more.
But we've got a couple friends up here who haven't spoken yet.
Let's go over to AJ first, then we'll come over to Mr. Emperor Door, and then we'll continue from there.
AJ, what are you watching this morning?
Good morning, sir.
Appreciate you joining us.
Good morning.
Well, key level on the indices, we're back at that $5,000, $5,500 pivot.
So I'm going to see if we break higher.
I am excited about Tesla.
I'm going to roll my puts again.
We're hitting $140 and change pre-market.
So I've been shorting that from an oblivion for so long now.
So I'm going to ride puts into earnings.
Could be wrong, but it's so far deep in the money at this point.
The one good thing about the way Tesla has been acting recently and all the news around it is in these earnings, the opinion, the expectations, the bar you have to reach is like on the floor.
You have to move like an inch off the ground for Tesla to be considered a decent quarter, just given how low expectations are.
The biggest thing that Kevin talked about, I'll talk about right now, I'm watching the Bloomberg terminal on this.
It's the FY25 EPS is already being repriced as of the weekend news.
So they're already front-running next year's expectations based on this weekend's news.
Now, that'll probably move a little bit more after he talks.
We all know that when he talks, the price action has a second move.
First move is the report.
The second move is when he starts talking.
So I won't get too excited until he's done.
But I will be rolling my puts again with house money.
See what happens.
I do like the fact that FY25 is being repriced now.
It is actually setting up expectations ahead of time, which I think is important if you're a long-term investor.
Tesla's gotten more into this, like, always believing what he was saying and just running with it and reacting too late to it.
So I think you'll notice the sentiment has shifted recently in the last 12 months, where they're really front-running a lot of the repricing expectations and growth expectations of the stock.
So I think a behavioral shift longer term is happening in that company.
And, you know, we'll find out in the next 12 to 18 months if it's here to stay.
Outside of that, I mean, we already talked about rotation.
So Kevin mentioned a couple of those.
I do see his point, but also one day, in my opinion, doesn't create a trend.
And so I'm waiting for three days to see if that rotation continues.
Or if people are just waiting for all the tech to pass this week, because you've got four out of seven mega cap reporting, it might just be natural.
Let's just sit on the sideline and not try to front-run a move and get burned.
You know, you've also almost had a 5% from highs in SPY and almost 10 in Qs.
Naturally, you want to pull back and wait going into four of the biggest earnings this week out of seven.
And you'll be really busy this week, Kevin.
So we know that for sure.
Outside of that, I'm watching snow, cloud services that are continuing to see a lot of pressure.
Still short some of the semis for now.
And we'll watch more on the energy and oil trade, as Kevin pointed out, whether it's kind of like cooled off or it has another leg.
We did see a reversal from the initial move when we were on futures from oil and all that.
But I don't think the move's over yet.
So that's kind of what I'm watching.
I'm being very cautious this week.
I'm not actually playing much tech.
I'll just play the indices.
And that's about it.
Short Tesla, short semiconductors.
That's a man who likes to live life on the edge.
Yes, sir.
I've been like that for a minute.
Evan, you've been hearing it.
So we're just going to keep rolling it until it breaks.
That's my attitude.
For any Tesla bulls down there, that was A-Stocks92 who said he's short Tesla, the architect.
Hey, Evan, I get enough messages.
Not me.
So I get enough messages, bro.
So don't try to make it go more upside down, bro.
The views of the speakers on this panel do not necessarily reflect the views of the host.
But yeah, I appreciate that, AJ.
A lot going on.
And yeah, some more stuff to watch.
I'm excited for the spaces, as always.
And Emperor Door, how are you doing today, sir?
Now, if anyone was up here trading futures at 6 p.m. Eastern last night, most likely in my head, that is you, sir.
Am I right?
And what are you watching for this week?
How are you doing?
Hey, good morning.
Funny you say that.
I actually did log on.
I didn't take any trades.
There was some decent opportunities there.
A little bit of a gap up on the NQ futures anyway.
It was the one I was watching more than anything.
I was watching to see if we'd come fill that, but we kind of filled it halfway.
We never really filled the gap up from the Globex Open.
You probably see it on your chart.
If you're a futures trader, you've probably already looked at it.
The 180, 182 area of NASDAQ.
We gapped up, came back into it just a little bit, but like I said, never filled it.
You know, what the guys said so far, and Lily as well, I agree with pretty much all of it.
But we're going into a big week of earnings, obviously.
We've had a pullback.
The biggest thing I'm watching, we had six days in a row of red candles on SPY.
So just as easy as it gets, six red days in a row on SPY.
That ties for the last three years.
That's the longest streak we've had.
So if we're playing the probabilities here, we probably get some kind of relief bounce today or tomorrow.
I mean, I just, it's hard for me to see another red day coming, but it is possible, right?
So we're always open to all the possibilities.
It's a nice thing, especially on the future side, being flexible.
But I would expect us to maybe get a green candle, an inside day.
I don't expect a big green candle.
So I expect probably an inside day today.
We have so much coming later in the week with those macro banks and just really all the earnings.
An inside day, chop, like low volatility, a little low volume, feels like maybe could be on point given what happens normally.
Yeah. So, you know, you, in my opinion, you should create, you know, a bearish and a bullish thesis.
And then also accept the fact that we could also just go sideways, right?
So I usually go with the, okay, what's my range sideways first?
What's my bullish thesis and what's my bearish thesis?
And I look through those and I kind of say, okay, which one's a little bit stronger than the other, but I have a plan for all directions.
That's the way I approach the market.
Today, I'm approaching this as a counter, counter trend rally type of day.
We may not get that, but just based on, based on the fact that we've had the six red days in a row, you know, on NASDAQ QQQ, we basically had the same thing.
We had one small green day in the middle of that, but close enough to basically a five, six day red streak there as well.
So at a certain point, you do expect some type of relief rally.
We've come down and hit some interesting levels, you know, and there's arguments out there that you'll hear a lot where technicians will say, well, price needs to go here.
And then your news catalyst is what takes it there, right?
So I think we've seen a lot of that over the last week, especially with the geopolitical stuff, which thankfully over this weekend, it doesn't seem like a whole lot went on.
But we have to keep our ear, you know, our ear to the ground on that one just to be safe.
Once again, I don't want anybody to forget what has been going on over there in the Middle East, because at any point you could have some geopolitical activity that could throw a kink into anybody's plan, right?
So always got to be flexible, adapt and react.
This is one of the mottos I use in this market.
But as far as watching stuff this week, I am kind of watching just some relief bounces, looking at some relative strength names.
So some names that maybe didn't sell off super hard last week, maybe some opportunities there or, you know, you don't always have to trade, right?
Yeah, you could probably get a few trades in here or there.
But when the market, it goes into, you know, corrective phases or, you know, consolidation phases a lot of times ahead of, I mean, how many mag 7 earnings are this week, Evan?
I think it's like three or four of them.
I think it's four out of five.
Tesla, Amazon.
No, Tesla, Facebook, Microsoft, Google.
It is four out of seven.
Yeah.
NVIDIA is later in the month, and I'm sure Apple and Amazon are next week.
Yeah, I think it's, is AMD next week as well?
Ooh, I believe so.
I'll get that in front of me on my earnings calendar.
Yeah, but I believe it's the 30th.
I can't remember for sure on that one.
I think, I think the 30th is AMD's earnings.
But anyways, the point is you have.
Amazon and AMD report earnings along with Starbucks there next Tuesday after the close, which is the 30th.
Tuesday the 30th.
We do have until this week, though, which can, you know.
Right, yeah.
Yeah, there's, so there's tons of names.
So not just MAG7.
That's a great point, Lily.
I mean, there's tons and tons of names this week.
So not only ahead of, I think, some of these reports, I think you'll see either this possible counter trend,
but I think you're going to see a lot of just hesitation across the market.
I mean, Kevin makes a great point.
We have to watch the dollar, Dixie.
We've got to watch the yields as they continue to be a lot higher than where, if you're bullish on the market, where you'd prefer them to be.
So, you know, you have to keep all that in mind.
But at the same time, I just don't have a whole lot of expectations until some of these companies really start to report.
And then who knows what we get, right?
The last several earnings seasons have been very, very good.
And then you came into the Q1, the most recent earnings season.
And it seems like you still had some pretty good numbers on most things, but you started to get a little bit weaker guidance overall.
So that's the biggest watch for me going into the earnings.
You know, the big bulk of earnings season this week is what are these CEOs going to say about guidance?
What are these conference calls?
And it may be a little bit more tedious for some people, but definitely, I think, worth jumping in on some of these conference calls
and just listening to the rhetoric given, you know, the sentiment that these CEOs are going to be throwing out there this week.
So that's my thoughts going into this.
I know nothing earth-shattering or groundbreaking, but I think that's something to point out to people too, you know, traders,
that you need to know, you know, the bigger picture of what's going on.
And sometimes you may want to just, you know, pull it back a little bit, maybe shift down into second or first gear.
And just kind of put along until you get a good opportunity.
Yeah, that is very fair.
I'm really interested for the Tesla one.
As we've talked about here, the expectations are on the floor.
And Elon Musk is going to come in and talk about whatever.
And that's going to be what changes the stock because I feel like the numbers themselves,
we know this is, as Kevin said, a kitchen sink quarter.
Numbers are not going to be great.
But the market knows that given where it's at and trading at 52-week lows.
Well, there's never a adult conference call with Elon.
That is true.
Although sometimes he's...
That's must-watch TV.
Sometimes he's very sad and whatever.
Sometimes he's very excited.
I think the Tesla needs a happy, excited, and optimistic Elon on this call.
And hopefully we get it as a Tesla bull.
So, Kevin, also, by the way, I pinned your article up in the nest above and it looks normal.
Like a normal post.
I guess they fixed something there.
So, that's very exciting.
Feel free to pin those articles up in the nest above as we continue on.
Lily, though, Intel is an interesting one to watch.
It's a little bit of a recovery story.
A name that was very strong in the past and has lost its way a little bit.
I do wonder how the market will take these Intel numbers, you know, from the perspective of an AMD and an NVIDIA and other players in that space.
Like, if Intel reports good numbers, I could see how the market takes that as, okay, the market, the semiconductor market is healthy and performing well.
Whereas if they report bad numbers, I wonder if the market takes it as, hey, NVIDIA and AMD are continuing to take Intel's lunch money.
I feel like there's a positive way you could swing those Intel numbers, whatever they come out as, for the other names in that area.
So, I'm interested to see how the Intel earnings affect and impact NVIDIA and AMD and the other names adjacent to that.
It should be an interesting one.
Awesome.
There was one other headline that came out late last night to early this morning that I thought was a little bit intriguing.
So, it is from the Financial Times and the headline reads,
The New York Stock Exchange is pulling market participants on the merits of trading stocks 24-7.
They are in the early, early, early stages of thinking about maybe turning this into a 365-day 24-7 market, which could be interesting.
Now, just really quickly, Lily, before you go, this was not put out by, like, management or anything else.
This was put out by their data analytics team.
So, it seems like they're just trying to gather information as opposed to actually making a major shift.
But, yeah.
But, Lily, you unmuted there?
Yeah, because I was going to ask, didn't Robinhood halt when we had all that overnight action with Iran and Iraq?
So, did they – I didn't read that piece yet.
Did they talk about what they would do in those situations?
I did not see anything in that area.
But, yes, you are correct.
Robinhood did – when the market was moving up, maybe it was Thursday night or something, they did halt the overnight trading.
We talked about this a little bit.
I know Kevin has some thoughts that, like, you know, the – there's someone on the other side of that risk overnight.
And it can be difficult when there's some massive moves to really hedge correctly.
So, it's an interesting one.
I do wonder, as more tools are built out and to properly do it, you know, if that problem could be fixed, especially if it's coming from the exchanges.
But, yes, that was something that happened.
And I'm excited to see how they address it.
By the way, I got a question in the Discord group.
Where could you find the Tesla conference call?
Can anyone join that call?
Or is it for investors only?
All earnings calls for every single company are public.
You can listen to them, whether you hold the company or not.
All you have to do is type in – for this example, we're going to say Tesla investor relations into Google or, I guess, Bing if you use Bing or whatever craziness you're using.
But, yeah, just type whatever company it is and then investor relations after it will bring up that page.
And then, depending on the company, it should be easy to find or a medium difficulty.
But, yeah, go around stock information, earnings call, investor relations, whatever.
You will be able to find all of these earnings calls there.
Awesome.
We got some traders joining us up here now as we're kind of shifting closer to the market open.
I know we normally do a good morning fin to it, a little bit of live trading here at the open.
So I want to make sure that some of the more kind of macro, whatever, people who are more than welcome to hang out and join us up here and hang out with us on these spaces as we continue into the open.
But get a final word.
Get us what you guys are looking at.
So, Kevin, we'd love to throw it over to you first if you're still here.
Maybe give a shout out to that article you put up in the nest above.
But, yeah, final thoughts on what you're watching today and how you're feeling about the market.
For sure.
Yeah, you could check out that article.
And basically what it does is it just goes and reviews what happened last week, goes over the technicals, some areas kind of focused on, talked about the option structure.
Once again, I'm looking at the dollar rates.
Like, those are the two things that I believe really matter in doors, right?
Like, we might get a nice little, you know, relief rally.
That could be a case where we can continue to sell.
So if you're looking at the 15-minute chart, look at that 200-period moving average on the 15-minute.
We've been fading that pretty much all last week, I think, since April 12th.
So that's where we have literally been seeing sellers coming into the market, no matter if it's glowbacks overnight or if it's during the regular equity sessions.
So keep an eye on that.
And if we do break that higher on some significant volume, then maybe we do get a nice little bounce for the week here.
I always look at energy, too.
So crude, yeah, I mean, it's sold off in the recent highs here.
I think that was more to speculators kind of getting out.
We are seeing a little bit of a buildup in inventories.
So I'm still looking at 80 to 85 to be within that range.
And then the last thing I will say, silver, from a market structure standpoint, does appear that we might be heading towards a little bit of a pullback for silver.
Lower volume last week, still seeing producers selling into strength, not a lot of supply on the speculator side to soak up that liquidity.
And if you look at like a weekly chart or even look at a daily chart, we're overbought on the RSIs.
And silver trade is really, really good from a technical standpoint.
So I would suspect a little bit of a fade that happens here in silver maybe earlier this week.
So keep your eye out on that.
And, yeah, that's what I got.
So I appreciate you, Evan.
I'm going to jump off.
Always love having these spaces in the morning.
Love hearing the insights from others as well.
And I hope everybody has a really good day.
Appreciate you as always.
Actually, Kevin, before you go, there's a little news squat coming out right now.
ECB is Centeno, Centeno, whatever.
European Central Bank's cuts this year could exceed 100 basis points.
We will still be in restricted territory even after easing 100 basis points.
Interesting dynamic, ECB versus Fed on the different side of it.
But it should be a good time.
It should be a good time.
All right, Kevin.
First of all, actually, before you go, make sure you're following all of the speakers up here.
Kevin and Lily and Emperor Door and AJ, I really appreciate them adding so much to these morning spaces, helping us get ready for the day and the week.
So make sure you're checking them out and giving each of them a follow.
We got a lot of traders and other people coming up here now as well.
Wolf, Shy, Zeus, Craig with a G.
So make sure you're following everyone up here.
Appreciate everyone.
We got a fantastic morning coming in front of us.
And check out that article Kevin put up in the nest above.
He writes some great stuff.
Lily, do you have anything else you want to leave us with in the space?
I just wanted to wish everybody a profitable day.
And thanks for the morning space.
Like, you know, it's a great space.
So I appreciate you and all the other opinions and insight we heard.
Yep.
I'm trying to do these morning spaces every single morning around 830, 845.
We have big news.
815.
So and Eastern, by the way.
Eastern is the only time zone that we talk about.
But it's the superior time zone, clearly.
But yeah, Lily, definitely come in and join us on some of these future ones.
I appreciate you.
Feel free to hang out with us up here.
But yeah, definitely was a great morning space as I feel very ready for the week.
Mr. Wolf Financial, you want to give us a little morning howl?
How are you doing today?
Morning, morning.
It's going good.
Ready for this market.
Have you looked at any of the pre-market here?
It's a decently green day if you don't look at Tesla at all.
Are they shaping up to be that way?
Yeah, outside of Tesla, which is going to break under 140.
I know.
Listen, I have my tweet ready.
I own the stock and I want it to go up.
But if it's going to go down, I mean, I might as well get some good tweets.
What's your tweet?
Under 140 or down 50% this year?
Oh, dude, I didn't even see the down 50%.
Well, it opened the year at 250, so it'd need to get to 125.
Oh, okay.
So, no, it's not going to be the 50% down this year tweet.
Unless it drops another $15 today, then it might be.
Are you calling for that?
Okay, Tesla bulls down below.
That was Wolf Financial saying that he wants Tesla to be down 50% this year.
That way I can buy it for cheaper.
Oh, there you go.
There you go.
What else is going on?
Before we get too further, are you going to be buying a Tesla this year?
I would have bought a Tesla already, but it's complicated because of moving around and where
Tesla stations are.
But every time I go out and I drive, I freaking hate driving.
I hate driving with such a passion.
I get on the road and all I can think about is I'm going to die.
Other people are going to die.
This all sucks.
I have to pay attention.
I can't be on my phone.
Wolf, I try not to talk about it much.
I am the exact same way.
I feel, for some reason, I feel more comfortable when other people are driving, but just in
general, I think it's like death boxes on the road, but we don't need to talk about that.
Sorry if you're driving right now.
You're safe.
You'll be good.
Yeah.
Yeah.
No, it's my least favorite thing, potentially.
So every time I do that, it just convinces me that I need to buy, that I'd be so stupid
to buy a car that can't drive itself.
So yeah, I'll probably end up buying a Tesla.
There you go.
Ooh.
Ooh.
We got a little bit of a, maybe a Dan Niles confirming a time for the spaces.
Exciting, exciting.
But yeah, Wolf, are you, any stocks in your radar?
What's a Celsius doing this morning?
And then we could throw it around to some of the traders that we have up here too.
Celsius is green.
They're up about a percent this morning.
They are trading, obviously, down from where they were.
They were up 77%.
At one point this year, they are up 28.5% now on the year.
This thing is moving.
Fair enough.
It was like, I remember at 50, then it was at 100, basically.
And now we're back here at 70.
Yep.
So it's come down a little bit from where it was.
SE is kind of pumping this morning.
I'm not sure if you saw anything on that.
Maybe they had earnings or something?
It's Monday morning.
They would not have earnings.
Looks like maybe they guided to profitability.
I don't know.
Something along those lines.
Yeah.
No, they're up like 7%.
BFA had it.
BFA, some could say.
BFA these upgrades.
Yeah, they upgraded them to buy from neutral.
I feel like it's going to be a big down for DJT.
I don't know why.
I just feel it in my bones that DJT is going to dump today.
It's down about 3% right now.
Hard to tell.
Yeah.
You want to throw it around to some of the people here that we have, then we can get
the market open?
Yeah, for sure.
I see Shai dropped off there.
But if he comes back up, I'll get to him.
Craig, you got a little watch list to run through here?
What's going on, everybody?
Today will be a little slower, a little bit management type date for me.
I've been pretty short gold and silver, so I get to take some profit this morning.
Something I'm kind of looking for, you know, we had quite the sell-off last week in terms
of looking at SMH.
Now, no guarantees that things don't continue lower.
You guys know the age-old fallacy of weak can always get weaker, so we'll keep out for
that.
But in terms of a short, near-term bounce, at some likely levels, it would have been
a little bit easier if we didn't get the gap up.
The easier move would have been about the exact same amount of a gap down.
If you look at some of the areas we're coming into, a little bit of support on SMH, specifically
one of the names I was looking for, had a really nice short on it last week, was ARM.
But I wanted to see if ARM could get down to around, let's call it the $83 area, see if
we can get a bounce.
But I may not get that opportunity.
Something else I'm looking for is some of these crypto miners and crypto surrounding
names.
I want to see how they react, especially with the Bitcoin having just happened.
We're still seeing Bitcoin catch a little bit of support above that $66,000 area.
So I want to see if maybe a little bit of weakness can have some sort of reaction, possibly
on coin.
It's one of the first names I'm looking for.
And then on the opposite spectrum, on that crypto side, CLSK.
If you guys take a look at the daily, we are back up into the 50-day SMA.
We did remount to 20, but I'm kind of leaning towards the side of whether it's going to catch
some support around, let's call it the $1650 area, maybe a $1650 area, maybe catch a bid
and continue higher.
But if not, coin will be my vehicle to the downside.
It's CLSK, if we can get some buyers to step into the crypto sector, we'll be my ride up.
Sounds good, Greg.
Bitcoin having complete.
There you go.
It was very anticlimactic, kind of.
Right, right.
That's what I'm seeing so far as well.
Game went, and now we're on to the next thing.
Do you understand what the having meant?
It means that when Bitcoin miners mine a block, they get like, what was it, like 6.4 or something
Bitcoin, a lot of Bitcoin, and now they get 3.2 or whatever the ratio is, they get half
as much for the same amount of input.
Yep.
And why is that good for it?
Why is that good for Bitcoin, or why is that good for the miners?
For Bitcoin, it's not good for the miners.
Well, it's diminishing supply out there, so less new Bitcoin is coming on the market.
Speaking of which, have you mentioned that the house passed the $95 billion package?
We did.
We had a good little convo around it.
It was interesting, because they're all linked together, it feels more likely that it's going
to get passed through, and within that is a TikTok ban.
So definitely watching Snapchat and Facebook stock for this week.
Now, Kevin did bring up a really great point around this.
There's going to be legal tests around this.
It's probably going to end up in the Supreme Court on if TikTok is banned or not.
So I would imagine there is an initial move in stocks that are associated, like a Snapchat,
like a Facebook, and some others.
But that is not the end of the story.
There will be a lot more kind of stuff.
There's no way TikTok doesn't try and fight this.
So it's definitely an interesting one to keep on watch.
It feels like when it gets passed, there's going to be, or even just the hype into it,
there will be a pop, and I wouldn't be surprised if we get a pullback after that one as the
realization hits that, hey, they can challenge this.
They probably will.
It probably will take a while where TikTok will still be available in the U.S.
This is probably a multi-year story that we're in the beginning stages of.
Maybe not multi-year, but a year-long story that we're in the early stages of.
Market's open.
Good morning.
We're back.
Reminder, real quick, we have a big week of earnings coming up here.
If you want to see all the earnings that are happening, I'm on EarningsHub.com,
which is a great place to go and check them out.
So I'm just scrolling through here right now, looking at what's coming up this week.
Tesla moving lower off the open.
Wants to get under 140.
Boy, poor Tesla.
Can't catch a break.
There we go.
Under 140.
Light the beam.
Now down 5% on the day, too.
Oh, boy.
Hey, at least it's doing it before earnings than after.
Magic just does another 10% down after earnings.
We were talking about this, that, like, AJ was on here, and he's obviously short Tesla
and a little bit bearish on it.
Actually, let me get this tweet out.
God, I hate options sometimes.
I have Raytheon calls.
Raytheon is up.
My options are down.
Why?
Yeah, we were talking with AJ.
He's bearish on it.
And my point was that, like, hey, the expectations right now are on the floor, where if Elon Musk
comes and breathes on the call two or three times, the stock may go up.
Like, that may be enough for it.
So, I think that's the only bright spot when you're a testable looking at this and being
like, hey, yeah, I'm down almost 40%, 30% this year, whatever it is.
And, yeah, we have earnings coming up.
I'm worried.
But the expectations probably couldn't be much lower at this point.
So, we'll see.
And if it moves lower after there's earnings, that's impressive.
And then a quick question I wanted to confirm with you.
Of course, earlier we were talking about some of the TikTok ByteDance news from over the weekend.
But I think I saw a few minutes ago, I don't know when it came out, but a short idea from
Hedgeye on Meta.
So, I don't know if that hit your radar anywhere, but I saw that a while ago as well, which is
interesting because that's going the opposite direction of what a lot of people thought
with the news this weekend, that Meta may get some type of pop just based on the vote
from the House.
That is an interesting one.
Yeah, I'm seeing a short Meta call today at 2 p.m.
Eastern.
Get access.
Wolf, I know you're a fan of the Hedgeye guys.
You follow them.
Any comments there?
Not on that necessarily, but is this thing inside of Meta, how new is it, the thing that
they added with the AI piece?
It came out like Thursday, Wednesday or something last week.
You know those memes going around as Zuckerberg with a beard?
Yes.
That is where that came from.
I'm releasing the Meta AI, I think.
Got it.
So, whenever that meme started.
Have you tried it out?
No, not really.
I see it up there, but no, I have not.
The honest truth to it, I've not really used ChatGPT.
I've not really used Grok.
I don't use them that much.
Maybe at some point.
Short Meta's and we do have Amazon popping pretty hard here at the open.
NVIDIA taking out pre-market highs.
NVIDIA has a really interesting point on the chart technically, the 750s on Friday right
at the close.
So, a decent chance for a relief bounce on that name as well.
So, just watching some of these things for some of the counter trend trade today.
DJT down 1.5% so far since the open.
Yeah, that Amazon move is intriguing.
Everybody has to have a little relief.
Come on.
That is big.
Dings.
Amazon trying to get back over the 50-day here.
Be a real nice reclaim.
Uber up 1%.
Google up 1% at the open.
PayPal up 1%.
Definitely seeing a lot more green than red.
Penn Entertainment down 2%.
That stock's been a freaking loser.
Gold getting hammered today.
I don't think we've heard from Zeus or Craig yet.
Good morning, sirs.
Let's go over to Zeus first.
You've been in on here for a while.
How are you doing?
What are you watching?
I'm doing pretty good.
Pretty good.
Watching NQ here to see if we can get buyers to step in to ultimately push us up to 17,340.
And then at that point, I'll look to take some QQQ puts, probably like 417, and bring it
back down to target the new day opening gap from this morning.
That's about 17,180 on NQ.
Perfect.
Appreciate that.
And for Zeus and Craig and anyone else up here, if at any point you guys have a live
trade or have anything that you guys are doing, feel free to interrupt even if we're speaking.
We love those live trades and they are more important than just the random convo that we
can have in the next 30 seconds or so.
So definitely feel free to jump in.
And Mr. Craig, how are you doing today, sir?
What are you watching?
What's on your reno right now?
Not hearing anything over there.
Might be in the middle of a trade.
Yeah.
Kim, good morning.
How are you doing today?
What are you watching?
Good.
Watching metals get crushed.
So that's probably just like everything was, you know, they were being pumped up because
of potential, you know, political stuff or geo, not political, geopolitical.
Kim, someone up here said before that they're like shorting silver and other stuff.
And you're the first person I thought of.
Yeah, no, I am not in that silver trade.
I got stopped out overnight.
So that's been my best trade this year.
So this is the most volatile I've seen it, though, because I'm looking at it right now.
It's like, what, down 5% and gold is down huge.
So, and then, yeah, just getting my bearings here.
I mean, I would expect that we're going to bounce today like we have and keep that going,
at least for today.
I have a lot of the stocks that have the big earnings.
So this is never my favorite time just because things can move so wildly just in your core
positions.
So, but I'm pretty flat.
I don't have any shorts on, don't have a lot of options on right now.
Just want to see how this week plays out.
Awesome.
Continue to watch this, Marcus.
Tesla is moving up a little bit here, back above that 140 level.
Now down just 3.9% from the 5% it was down.
Interesting.
Amazon's still moving higher.
NVIDIA around that 780 mark.
Maybe it can break over 800 today and a couple other interesting stuff watching.
But Sharky, appreciate you joining us up here.
How are you doing today, sir?
What are you watching?
How's it going?
How's it going?
Can't complain.
Stock market's back open, so I have stuff to do, you know?
Right on.
Yeah, it's definitely, I mean, Kim was already mentioning the interesting sell-off in the
metals.
Silver, definitely getting hit, but holding up a little bit better as far as my key levels
are concerned around that 25, 24, 84 area.
Gold, however, just got absolutely destroyed.
So it looks like that trade is pretty much done for me.
Other than that, everyone's kind of expecting this big bounce, which pretty much we have gotten
a little bit.
So with the NQs up just over 100 points or so.
Yeah, I mean, you know, I think everybody probably made all the points already with earnings season
with those big names coming out.
So we should just be careful with that.
Of course, we still have, unfortunately, the geopolitical backdrop that we have to deal with.
So they never make any trade easy, as we have those two backdrops for anyone that are trying
to get on some type of a bounce.
But I think the $64,000 question is, obviously, we are in a downtrend on the weekly now and
on the daily, and if we get some type of a retracement, will it be a daily lower high
or a weekly lower high that gets put in?
So we'll see what we get.
Yeah, those are some fair points.
We were talking about it.
It feels difficult to see today being a really strong trend day, just given all the information
we have coming later this week, whether it's PCE and GDP on the macro front, or it's these
mega cap earnings with four out of seven of them reporting this week.
A lot of data coming in, and those are just the mega cap names.
There are so many companies under the hood that also report earnings.
So it would make sense for today to be a little bit of an inside choppy day.
Yeah, yeah.
We've opened up inside of Friday's range, which is a step in the right direction for any type
of countertrend rally that may be put in.
So we'll see where we close.
The other thing, though, I'm a little concerned about or kind of hypothesizing is that anybody
that is kind of still trapped long, I'm wondering if they're going to be selling into any earnings
spike.
So last quarter, we saw a lot of great moves for earnings season.
And I'm wondering if anybody that's trapped might make earnings season a little bit more
muted now that we've had this pullback and they'll be selling into any rally on any individual
names to try to maybe offload some of their positions.
So just a hypothesis to watch out for this earnings season.
It's something that might take place.
And that's all I've got.
Awesome.
Appreciate you, Sharky.
All right.
By the way, these kind of live trading spaces, we're just hanging out here, live trading the
open, watching the market.
So there's no pressure or anything.
If you guys are taking a trade, jump in.
If you're not, feel free to jump in on the conversation or anything like that.
Make sure you're following the speakers.
If you're down below, they're all fantastic.
Really smart people.
We appreciate them for helping us make some content, share some information, all that great
stuff.
But yeah, excited for the stock market to be open again.
Happy Earth Day, everybody.
Is it Earth Day?
It is Earth Day.
It is Earth Day.
Happy Passover as well.
It's also my dad's birthday.
Yeah, that's what I was about to say.
Happy Passover.
Well, that's...
But I know, it's not until later tonight.
I know.
You don't want to get all technical with it.
He's coming to the Fintwit Seder.
I don't think we mentioned the Bitcoin halving happened this weekend.
I'm sure most people that follow that space are aware of that, but maybe not everyone
But we did have the halving that's what, every four years or so, Wolfie?
Every four years or so.
Yeah.
Emperor, I got quizzed this morning on the halving.
I passed it, I think.
I think I got 100.
Did you?
Wow.
Wolf didn't get 100.
He got a 98.
He misspelled his name at the top.
Ah, it happens.
Kind of like he misspelled mine.
For all you Bitcoin people, is that why we're getting the bounce on it then?
The halving has typically led to, in the long term, a nice move up.
But in the short term, I think this is just day-to-day volatility moving with the rest of the stock
market, which is bouncing here with SPY and Q's both up.
So I think it's kind of just moving together with it.
This is the slowest day I've seen on the futures in a while, like MES.
Or, yes.
Sorry.
Yeah, Kim, I agree with you.
For a Monday morning, this volatility is actually very, very low.
It kind of makes sense, given what we have coming up later in the week.
Maybe people are sleeping in.
Or maybe they're just excited from the Knicks and Rangers both winning this weekend, their
first game of the playoffs.
I watched the last, like, ten minutes of that Knicks game.
I was at a festival, and they had it up on, like, a TV screen in one of the booths.
What type of festival was it?
I was at the National Cannabis Festival in D.C.
It's a very different...
Yeah, today's National Surprise Drug Test Day.
Oh, yeah, true.
Good thing I worked for myself.
There you go.
There's quite some characters out there.
That must have smelled really good, too.
Oh, my.
It's a time to be alive.
I haven't quite seen anything like it.
It's an experience for life.
Speaking of which, what's...
What cannabis stock's been up to?
Because I feel like people were lightly talking about those this year, and then they kind of
faded.
Oh, yeah.
Big fade in the last month or so.
Well, two things.
One, look at the pinned tweet up here.
That's an article from Kevin, and Space has fixed it, so I am in shock that something
got fixed on here, but it looks like it's actually decent now.
And then I also pinned up a tweet there on the current state of marijuana legalization
in the U.S.
So, I think the reason that it's working is because it's not the actual article that he
pinned.
He commented the article underneath the space, then pinned that tweet.
Maybe.
We'll test it again later.
We'll see how it goes, but...
I can just test it now.
I can just try to pin the actual article.
Mr. Frankie joining us up here.
Morning, guys.
Good morning, Frank.
How we doing?
Good.
Good.
Now, okay.
Frank, you've been getting more into the late-night futures trading.
Were you trading futures last night?
I was trading a little bit, yeah.
There you go.
Frank, you're going the opposite way of people.
I feel like normally people start out as a D-gen and then work their way down.
I feel like you're starting out as the normal person and moving towards the D-gen route.
No, I wasn't up late.
Actually, the futures weren't working.
I mean, the systems were down last night for the first half hour.
Oh, interesting.
I was like, what's going on here?
And then I watched the price movement.
I mean, I actually put one trade on and covered it within a reasonable amount of time while I was watching TV.
And this is like further chop, like nothing really going on.
All right.
The world has to know.
Frank, what do you watch on Sunday night TV right there while you're trading futures or watching futures?
Well, I guess when I started, it was the end of the Ranger game.
There we go.
Big win.
Yeah, big win.
That's what I like to hear.
I hate to say it.
I watch Netflix.
I watch Netflix usually, something on Netflix.
Netflix is great.
I will say, I love me some other streaming platforms, Max, HBO, Disney Plus.
I know some of you guys will hate me for that one.
I enjoy it.
But Netflix, when people say it's the only one that you actually really can't live without, I do more or less agree with that.
Other ones have great shows that I might want to watch every once in a while.
But Netflix is the one that I do return to the most.
I was watching The Last Kingdom.
Good.
Oh, okay.
Is that not the best show ever?
It's really good.
I've watched it twice.
It is so good.
The Last Kingdom, everybody.
Kim, I just finished it for the second time last night.
Oh, you did?
It's like one of my favorite shows ever.
Did you know there's a movie?
Yes, I've seen it.
I didn't.
The movie wasn't as good.
I won't lie.
But I didn't know that.
I found out like two weeks ago there was a movie and I watched it.
But for everyone that loved Game of Thrones, this is better because the last season was killer.
It was so good.
It shouldn't have been the last season, but oh well.
I hope you're watching Disney for Hulu, Evan.
I love me some Star Wars and Marvel.
Oh, well, that makes sense.
Not Beauty and the Beast or a little more late.
Hey, Cars?
I could still watch a good Cars every once in a while.
Well, they're all fun to watch.
I love me some Star Wars.
They got me.
I'm a sci-fi nerd, which fits in with the Last Kingdom stuff, so.
Yeah.
But yeah.
And same thing with HBO.
I'm watching a Game of Thrones, even a Succession or something like that, but yeah.
Netflix is the best one.
I just got into some IWM puts and also got along some SVIX for just this next couple days.
But yeah, I think we're fading this bounce.
I'm looking at TLT right now.
It's red.
It's not really bouncing with the markets.
I think this is going to be a fade, but we'll see.
I think these are having a nice push.
I just got filled on some Tesla Leaps at 17, 2025, 175 calls.
Tesla Leaps?
I love Tesla's downtown 140.
Yeah, we're holding the Golden Fib right now, and we just filled that gap fill.
This is a good move of Tesla for that initial move down off the open.
It's been a strong comeback here.
Arms up 6%.
I think I'm watching for any kind of like five-minute candle.
That's going to be a red candle to get into that.
I think it's going to bounce the furthest and quickest among the semi-names that sold off last week.
Are you long and shy?
It's a little more than Nvidia.
Just for a short trade, I think it's pinned to the $100 psychological level.
And if there's going to be a bounce in semis, which I think there will be until earnings this week, I think Arm will be the winner within that space.
I'm also watching NVDL, but this one already ran this morning.
NVDL.
I really do like the granite shares.
Yeah, NVDL.
I really like that, especially going into earnings season.
To me, one of the best ways to approach earnings season is, especially in those very high beta names like Nvidia, is with one of those 2x ETFs.
I really love that.
One of the good things around them in earnings season is you can actually trade them fully in after hours, whereas options, obviously, you cannot.
Exactly.
So, if you see a move in the after hours market, you can maybe take it and play it with some of these leveraged single stock ETFs.
Another call that I'm watching right now is the dog, data dog.
It's bounced three times at this 120 level, and it looks like it's the first mover within the cloud stocks to, again, today.
So, this is showing a ton of strength the past couple weeks, and it looks like it's bouncing off a clear support line at 120.
You're saying it has that dog in them?
Someone had to do it, sorry.
And silver and gold have kind of stopped their slide, so I wish I would have grabbed silver at that low, because at the opening, it just crushed down and then bounced pretty hard.
So, it looks like they're basing.
Hopefully, they've had no quarter.
Oh, all right.
Michael Che.
Good morning.
How you doing?
Did I say it right?
I felt like I did.
Yeah, you said it bang on.
Look at me.
It's a great Monday.
It's going to be a great week.
How we doing, Mike?
Is that how you're supposed to pronounce it?
Yeah, just like the guy from Saturday Night Live, Michael Che.
Bro, tell me why I've been calling it Mikalshi for fucking forever.
God only knows.
God only knows.
So, there we go.
How we doing this morning, sir?
Amazing.
How you doing?
Doing pretty good.
I'm excited for the market to be back.
Feels like we're shaping up for a little bit of an inside day, maybe, just given with all the news that we have coming later this week.
But, as the news guy, this is my prom time.
Nice.
Did you guys see the Matterport acquisition price?
Yep.
Absolutely wild.
It's Matterport trading around $1.79, $1.80 this morning.
And, it's getting acquired at $5.50.
How did it move after it started trading again?
It's halted, I think.
But, I did make a comment on the Friday Space to Austin for Pennyboys that, due to interest rates being higher for longer, maybe one rate cut, we're going to get a huge SPAC season this summer of acquisitions.
It's just because a lot of small caps can't really, they don't have that luxury of lasting one or two years for increased rate hikes, the rates being higher.
So, I do think we're going to get, like, a SPAC spree this summer, similar to, like, Matterport getting acquired.
Which, like, companies that are great tech, just awful fundamentals, and they're going to go nowhere for at least a year or two.
And, the board's just going to sell out a juicy premium.
And, you saw it, that's an insane premium.
Yeah, that's, like, two, three ups.
You guys see an MSTR here?
Yeah.
Yeah, I'm watching it.
Up 111.
Geez, what the hell is happening there?
That's Bitcoin.
Yeah, that's Bitcoin.
Coin's fine, too.
For the record, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has now sold $370 million worth of MicroStrategy stock so far this year.
Don't forget about JD, 2650 calls.
Ooh, a little China stock.
PDD as well, 118 calls.
Are you shopping like a billionaire over there with your PDD?
They own T-Move, for those who don't know.
Shop like a billionaire.
DDOG.
Whoever was talking about that before, I like 125 calls.
That was shy.
AVGO, AVGO, 1250 call.
Oh, Avgo.
Let's see what's happening there.
Avgo needs a stock split.
Watch the semi-names this week because we're going to get a lot of the big tech capex spend and the earnings.
And that can just validate the party will continue in the hardware components of the AI race.
So I wouldn't be surprised if they caught a bid before those earnings.
Basically, besides Amazon, the company's spending the most money on that capacity report this week.
So that is a good take.
100%.
Meta and Microsoft.
So that totally makes sense.
They're going to run up today.
Especially, like, last week was the worst SMH week in a long time.
I got greedy.
I didn't really add as much as I wanted to.
Damn.
What a morning for semis.
Ooh.
It looks like they might have put out a trailer for Deadpool and Wolverine.
Yeah, that's coming.
Did you talk about Tesla price cuts?
Just briefly, we did in that first part.
Pretty big ones, right?
What's up?
2K in the U.S. on the Model S, X, and Y.
I think it was something like 2K in China as well.
They also lowered the price of full self-driving, the lifetime subscription, to $8,000 and $12,000.
And they recalled those 4,000 Cybertrucks?
They did recall almost all of the Cybertrucks.
I did see a video around that one.
And kind of the reasoning behind it was, like, on the accelerator pad, if you put it all the way down,
it could slip up and get caught under something, and then it's caught on accelerating.
Which is interesting.
Cybertrucks, if you put your foot on the brake, it overrides the acceleration.
So, you could be fine.
But that's a recall.
That makes sense.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Safe to say.
By the way, Wolf.
So, apparently, of that $95 billion, this is saying...
Was $61 billion of it for Ukraine?
Oh, my gosh.
I didn't realize that much of it was for Ukraine.
Crazy that there's, like, still this massive war going on over there.
Yeah.
It's been, like, two years, three years.
It's crazy that, when I think of the start of it, I just think of that one space that was happening.
Did you see they had Jokic arrive to the game the other day dressed as Gru for Despicable Me?
No, it was for Despicable Me 4.
They teamed up with Jokic and dressed him like Gru.
That's smart.
Did you see that LeBron James went to his game with an unreleased Beats pill?
And now there's a lot of rumors coming around that a new one's coming?
I saw you posted that.
Jokic's Gru.
Oh, he did.
That's just casual, though.
Like, that could have just been something he's wearing.
It's true.
But he's up in the trailer.
He's in the trailer for Despicable Me 4.
Oh, is he?
Yeah.
I don't know.
I had a teacher back in the day in high school who was built like Gru.
Like, very small bottom part of the body and just, like, very big top part.
It was very interesting.
It was the hardest math.
I'm good at math, and it was a math class where, like, you weren't able to use a calculator.
I think it was, like, Calc BC or something.
And I was like, I'm fucking out of here.
This sucks.
Yeah, that was rough.
They shook you out, just like if you were in a stock that you shook out.
They shook me out of there in the first month.
I went in thinking I'm going to use my calculator and I'll be fine, and then they said no calculators on this stuff.
And I'm in there using my hands to try and do stuff, and I was just like, this just isn't going to happen.
Mikey, are you in any of these defense names like Lockheed or Raytheon or anything like that?
RTX and LMT.
Which RTX options are you in?
I'd have to look.
I think it's the 105 calls for May 17th.
Got it.
Yeah, I like those.
Those look maybe a little bit better than mine.
I do want to mention real fast on NQ and basically on QQQ as well, from Friday's high right in the pre-market area to the lows that we made,
we just did a halfway retrace on that.
Basically rejected that halfback, as some people call it, halfway retrace of Friday's range right here on this pop.
I appreciate that, as always.
Wow, Wolf, by the way, I made a little prediction for Tesla around earnings.
I needed a three-day guy.
Ooh, nice.
I should do one of those.
Yeah, pinned it up in the nest above.
You probably should do it tomorrow sometime, but I was excited.
Coming into 10 a.m. here.
No news that I know is coming, but there tends to be some stories coming here around that 10 a.m. news area.
First 30-minute candle closing as well.
So watch out in two minutes.
Just set up that call with Sawyer.
I was going to text you about that last night, but I figured...
Wolf's a calendar guy.
He put it on his calendar, a message.
Yep.
I literally wrote out the message and then put it into the notes.
Got to pull open the old predictogram.
Let's see.
Let's see.
Let's see.
GDXC is getting hammered today, but not as bad as it was earlier.
It was down like 15%.
No, they've made some...
Well, at least Silver's made a nice bounce.
I didn't grab it.
I wish I would have.
Still down big, though.
Yeah.
Well, it's been ripping hard over the last couple of weeks, right?
So, I mean, a little pullback makes sense.
A massive move.
This is a big pull.
This is a big move.
I mean...
GD, 2650 call is almost in the money.
Same with PDD for the 118s.
That's why I, I mean, trade it small.
Silver is...
I mean, when it moves either way, it makes big moves.
We got a little miniature stick on Apple fading away.
A stick up or a stick down?
Give me a stick up.
Come on.
I'm sure you're buying B-I-D-U.
That's just our research.
No, go down.
Tesla's had a nice bounce here.
NVIDIA looks like it wants to get up to that $800 mark today.
Pull back a little bit of that down there.
Spy, new high a day.
Nice.
Do they?
B-I-D-U.
Watch the $98 calls.
Paypal's having a nice little day.
K-pop?
Paypal.
Oh, okay.
You big K-pop guy?
Uh, I don't know if I've ever listened to K-pop, but millions and millions of people seem
to enjoy it, so I'm sure it can't be that bad.
That's a fair answer.
That was a very diplomatic answer.
Let's use EZBL as the example.
BTS is, like, the most famous singing group in the world, so who am I to doubt?
Okay.
Okay.
Trade desk looks interesting here.
Ticker TTD.
They're sitting at their 200-day moving average.
Uh, I do think maybe it gets a bid before Meta's earnings on Wednesday.
Uh, trade desk is, they partnered with Netflix, too, on their advertising, correct?
Yeah, they're essentially, like, the CTV agnostic play for all streamers.
So, we didn't get any, I don't remember seeing any data around how Netflix's advertising is
doing, just more, like, empirical stuff of them saying it's going well.
Did they say that?
Yeah.
I think that's going to be the status norm for them, it sounds like, after, uh, they're
just trying to hold back the visibility for everyone.
All right.
I got my Tesla one up as well, Evan.
Uh, I would need to do my, my three-day one at some point, but right now I did a 30-minute
one to kick off the morning and have some fun.
So, I just pinned that to the top of the space.
It's a 30-minute Tesla price prediction chart, and I've been pretty solid on these, actually.
I think these are one of my highest accuracy types of predictions.
There you go.
Tesla, I'm batting 83% last 30 days, and on the 30-minute ones, I'm batting 84%.
So, not terrible.
And that's pretty solid, I think, that's right.
Yeah, not too chabby, 84%.
Um, that's on my timeline.
If anyone wants to see it, you get a nice little chart, you get a target level, all that good
stuff.
Uh, Riot is pumping right here.
Which means MSTR is pumping!
Holy cow!
You guys see that candle?
It's a $30 candle.
We are moving!
And, of course, GCT, nicely participating.
Shout out to me.
You know what would be cool?
Haters.
Yeah?
You know how when stocks go under a dollar, they get a notice from the, whatever exchange
it is, saying you guys have to get over a dollar, or else you're going to be listed?
Oh, is that what happened on Selena?
Yes.
Let's do something where if you get over $1,000, you have to do a stock split, or else.
Come on.
They've been under a dollar for a while.
Yes.
It takes, like, 30 to 60 days after a stock goes under that mark is when they get that
notification.
It's one of those.
I mean, they haven't been trading at a dollar since a year ago.
And it's weird they got that notification.
I'm fairly certain it's 30 to 60 days from when it goes under.
Maybe it's more.
They went under on July 27th.
You listed?
I don't know.
I think it's requirements.
I think it's 60 days.
Yeah.
Hey, guys.
I do want to add one comment.
The Fed did enter into their blackout period ahead of FOMC next Tuesday and Wednesday.
So we don't have to worry about Fed speakers this week, at least.
Just to throw that out there.
Zero.
Here we go.
WFC, $62 call.
Ooh, Wells Fargo.
Banks having a good day?
Wells Fargo's daily chart looks great.
What was the strike on that again, Mikey?
Sorry.
$62.
Gotcha.
BAC, $38 call.
BAC, we touch here as we do trading now.
We're seeing Peckle Tangle Hotel and Edible Garden open again.
This is a break.
No, I was waiting to show you that example.
Son of a bitch.
I should never have clicked off of it.
Fuck.
You know, Evan, not only is it trading under $1, but Selena is trading at $0.06.
Gone, but not forgotten.
Rest in peace.
It's not.
It's not just under $1.
It's down bad.
It's down bad.
Oh, my God.
Don't even talk about it.
It's a $6 million company.
What the fuck?
All I'm saying is, if I wake up in your hotel and there's a cockroach in my bed, your stock's
going to zero.
That's all I'm saying.
No comment past that.
Yeah, we don't have to dig in.
No comment past that.
Just don't put cockroaches in my bed, please.
Freaks me to freak out.
Tesla only down 2.5% now.
Here we go.
Ooh, look at that candle on coin.
Actually, Tesla, I'm looking at the candles.
The last three have been down.
Five minute candles.
No, the one before this one wasn't down.
I'm still, I don't know.
I don't know what I'm looking at, but I'm seeing three red candles in a row.
This one is down right now.
Yeah, we were dropping right here.
But it's all sham.
It's big, big stock market.
They don't, they want to keep you down.
It's like big pharma.
A hundred percent.
A couple names.
A couple names on the 52-week low list, by the way.
Global Foundries, Lucid, Vale Resorts, NIO, On Semiconductor, Tesla, XPeng.
On Semiconductor.
What were you saying, though, Wolf?
Well, X has now acquired a money transmitter license in half the states in the U.S.
Whoa.
I can't wait to never use that.
Get ready.
Maybe Evan will finally pay me the money he owes me.
You're going to have to send collectors to my door.
For that money thing, they have to get, once they get in New York, it will all be done and everyone will come through.
So, New York, California, Texas, really New York, though, tends to be the most strict on the kind of exchange front, money transfer, all this kind of finance, fintech stuff.
As we've experienced, Wolf, a couple of the companies that we've talked to or worked with, even with Belay, New York's the big one.
Yeah, good luck in New York.
All those crypto exchanges, too.
I was never allowed to use the majority of them.
Really, only Coinbase.
We've got about 20 minutes left on the spaces, at least.
We'll see where we go from there.
Wolf, what else do we have planned today?
That's a good question.
It's actually not the busiest day.
Today we have a 3 p.m.
Eastern space.
Kind of probably prepping for the week.
We do have Tom Nash.
Said he was going to jump back on with us there and a few others.
Brian Lunds and a couple others.
So, we'll have a little power hour.
Stock picks for the week.
Honestly, outside of that, it's pretty mellow today.
Anyway, yeah, I'm going to do a, oh, I guess I didn't put it on my chart.
I'm going to do a space around the halving at two and just explain, like, what the halving
actually meant for Bitcoin and does it go up or down or should you still be buying mine
or stuff like that.
But for people that are interested.
JD, 26.50 in the money.
PDD up 170%.
How you doing?
How you doing?
Happy Monday.
Happy Monday.
And then I just noticed, huh, this is kind of funny.
You know the account that tweets out Big Tech Alert?
Yep.
Said Tim Sweeney followed Big Tech Alert.
Look at the tweet.
They put Tim Sweeney.
It says older brother of Sidney Sweeney.
Sidney Sweeney's older brother.
You know I actually looked up if he is her older brother and he is not.
No, he's not her older brother.
He's old enough to be her grandfather.
I don't know.
I looked.
The picture didn't look like Sidney Sweeney.
That is one of the worst pictures I've seen.
And it is so blurry.
It looks like he tried to make it blurry.
Yeah.
That's genius marketing.
Not related to Sidney Sweeney.
No, it's funny.
I did see that and I did actually check.
Pin Duo Duo.
Damn.
I'm looking at this chart.
It's just freaking going.
PDD.
Fair enough.
Even though she does have one brother.
Yeah, I looked.
His name is Trent or something.
I'm telling you, Wolf.
I went down this rabbit hole already.
And it's funny that you're bringing it up now.
Evan C.
Sidney Sweeney.
He invested in this.
It did pique my interest.
I'll give it back.
I took a look at the fear and greed index, which I know a lot of people hate on.
I saw it like 30.
34, yeah.
It was 31 yesterday.
Mm-hmm.
We'll see if we get down into that extreme fear area.
Let me do my little small daily DCA and Qs.
Only if earnings don't go well, then we could get there.
Next one up, Bava, $72 call.
What happened?
Was something going on in China that I missed?
Or just given some good volume, good activity?
I wonder if it was the C Limited notes called out the region, something that was bullish
about the region for e-commerce.
Interesting.
I think that was it.
Oh, I think the Bank of Japan had something last night at 930.
Or at China.
I think they had an interest rates decision.
No, I think I actually think it wasn't the Bank of Japan.
I remember seeing something last night.
Yeah, it was something.
I'll take a look.
That could have affected it.
Oh, PBOC interest rate one year actual.
Came in line with expectations.
So you're right there.
You can't even make that shit up.
That's like literally a planned fucking pump.
China to implement new fiscal help for small and medium-sized firms.
That came out this morning.
Oh, yeah.
I heard that on Bloomberg last night when I was watching their Asian hour that they're,
because of the big fall and all their small caps, they're going to prop them.
Makes sense.
Yeah.
There's a couple headlines actually out of that one.
Okay.
It's interesting.
Yeah, Mikey.
Mikey.
Oh, he might have been talking to the group.
It's interesting that the Megacap names are moving off of that.
Obviously, Megacap is relative.
PDD is now the largest Chinese public company.
Correct.
Or is it like one of the oil ones?
Gas ones?
You're welcome.
Wolf, take a guess.
What do you think is the largest Chinese company?
Probably probably.
No, it's not even close anymore.
Wow.
Not even close.
Is it not PDD, which you just were talking about?
That's my guess.
Is it Tencent?
It is.
Oh, my God.
It's Alibaba.
I lied.
Oh, wow.
Called it out on my first try.
Fake news answers over here.
Fair enough.
I'm seeing $170 billion.
That doesn't feel right.
Yeah, it does.
Alibaba is by far the most famous company in China.
It's gotten destroyed, though.
Yeah, but before it got destroyed, it had all that munger backing.
Making by countries.
All that Charlie Munger sweet, sweet liquidity.
Oh, this actually says Tencent.
This other place says Tencent 1.
Oh, that was my other guess.
Tencent.
Quechow, Maotai, number 2.
Petro China 3.
ICB 4.
Agricultural Bank of China 5.
Okay, so that was just the largest U.S.-listed Chinese company.
There are seven companies in front of Alibaba.
Okay.
But Tencent was my other guess.
Yeah, I'll give it to you.
I'll give you the respect.
That was well-answered questions.
There you go.
I'm by no means a China expert, but got a few big guesses in the text.
There are three banks up here.
This is an oil name, a tech name, China Mobile.
What's this?
Or is Mobile Operated by Customer Base?
It's like a telco.
Fair enough.
I'm sure there were some people down there like, yeah, no, Alibaba's not number one.
Let me check the comments.
Comment in the chat if you knew off the top of your head.
New York Stock Exchange test reviews on round-the-clock trading.
Yeah, it should be interesting.
There was a story from the Financial Times late last night this morning.
It did come out from the New York Stock Exchange.
Earthquake in Taiwan.
Watch sticker TSM.
Yeah.
Oh, man.
That story came out from the data analytics team, not the management team.
So it seems like it's more a data gathering thing than anything else.
But it was an interesting headline that they're testing the feasibility and the market interest of 24-7 market trading.
Keep on watch that Taiwan news.
I know there was an earthquake early this morning also in the Taiwan area.
So you can download the app, MyQuake, and get real-time data.
I have it because we live in an earthquake area.
So there's MyQuake and MyShake.
Apparently now I live in an earthquake area, too.
Where are you?
Oh, in New York.
New York, yeah.
I thought my first one ever.
Oh, yeah, me too.
That was my second.
It's scary, isn't it?
The New York one wasn't bad.
It was still like, what's happening?
Why is everything shaking?
I honestly couldn't tell if just a subway had run by really fast underneath.
It just shook everything.
So you're an interesting spy with spy up by the high of the opening range, but NQ and QQQ down by the low of the opening range.
That is weird.
That feels wrong.
At least, definitely one over-performing, one under, isn't weird.
Taiwan Semi, by the way, pumping right now a little bit.
Might be a strong word there, but it's moving higher off of the high.
So I see the one that Mikey was talking about.
It's four point, on my Quake app, it's four point something.
Okay.
I think that one that happened a couple weeks ago that was pretty big, and there was a lot of concern around it, was in the sixes or the low sevens, maybe?
Oh, yeah.
It was like 6.9 or 7.2 or something.
I can't remember the exact.
I have to look.
Let me look on my Quake.
And these are exponential.
So like a one to a two is 10x more.
Two to three is 10x more than two, I think.
Taiwan Semi pulling back a little bit here now, keeping that one on watch.
A four point something in that region won't do anything.
They are used to it.
For the record, there are a few stocks that report earnings today after the close, not really any big ones, but SAP, Cadence, Nucor, and a few other smaller names report earnings today.
So if you're trading SAP, CDNS, or NUE, keep in mind that those do have some numbers coming out after the close.
We also have Pepsi, Danaher, GE, Philip Morris, Raytheon, RTX, so you guys can call it there, Nextera, UPS, Lockheed Martin as well.
All report earnings tomorrow morning.
So when the market closes today, the next time it's open, all these companies will have reported.
General Motors goes tomorrow morning.
Spotify, Kimberly Clark, GE Healthcare, JetBlue.
So a lot of these names that, a couple of them, even the Lockheed Martin, Raytheon report earnings tomorrow morning.
So definitely keep that in mind if you're planning today.
A little thing I just found out, the guy who plays Tom Wamskans is also in the new Wolverine and Deadpool movie.
Interesting.
He's having been in a couple stuff.
I think he might have been in The Last Kingdom too, by the way.
The show that we were talking about.
Might have been.
Here to watch.
Now I got to get it up.
I think.
IMDb changed its logo.
Shai, aren't you, haven't you been in CRISPR?
I mean, the CRISPR stocks like Intellia and Beam.
Yeah, me too.
That one's just taken a dive.
Yeah, I mean, they're the most vulnerable to the interest rates.
They're not going to make any revenue for like four to five years, only through partnerships.
So easiest sector to kind of go short on playing the interest rate play of being higher for longer.
But I do think a lot of them are trading near their cash value.
So there is an interesting time to DCA if you want to initiate.
But again, very risky.
High spec plays.
CRISPR has some cool technology.
And I'm a fan of that.
I just can't invest in a pre-revenue company.
It's some good trading vehicles, though, I'm sure, out of it.
CRISPR, by the way, for anyone who doesn't know, is gene editing.
Yeah.
I mean, the thing that excites me about their tech is the unprecedented pricing power they're going to have potentially in five or six years,
where people pay an unlimited amount of money to protect their children's health pre-birth.
So I do think it is truly revolutionary if it succeeds.
And while it's only like one or two percent of my whole portfolio,
and that's good enough for me for a moonshot position,
because it would be truly revolutionary for the whole society if it actually works and succeeds.
And it would be at least a 10-bagger.
Or it could be a zero.
It's that kind of position and investment.
So if you have that mentality entering this kind of stock, then go for it.
If not, they're going to be for a bumpy ride in the near term.
No, I have a friend who had a baby last year with a rare genetic disease that either you die before,
depending on what level you have it at,
but essentially you're either crippled for life or you die,
and this baby's life is essentially going to be normal.
Now, they only have 10 years of data, so they don't know long-term,
but you have to get it before, I think, two months old.
And it was a million dollars.
Right.
QQQ is breaking in the opening range low.
Spy is traveling down now to the opening range.
Oh, yeah.
We drop on the Qs.
Damn.
Meta, green to red.
The estimate was $0.29, building a San Diego.
Amazon fixed-out.
AMD green to red, too.
It's back up to green, but circling around there.
But, yeah, I think the pricing power argument there makes a lot of sense.
We were talking CRISPR and a million dollars.
That's a crazy amount of money, but if it's going to save your child's life,
I'm sure there's a lot of people.
Covered by insurance, basically.
Can't put a price on your baby.
Yeah, continuing to move lower here.
Meta's now almost down 1% on the day.
My portfolio's getting close to going red.
Paying.
Tesla pulling back down a little bit.
AMD, yeah, I already said that one.
Hmm.
Even Costco's a little bit red.
Sad.
Are you in it now?
Have you started a position?
I have.
I've only had a starter position in it, but I've had it for a while.
I bought in July.
April and July of last year.
But it was really only ever became like a small starter for me.
I was always saying, if I get my pullback, I'll add in a little bit more.
And I didn't.
I was adding in the low 500s, and here we are at 700.
Oh, well.
Win some, lose some.
And in this case, it's you win some, you win some more.
And I won less.
But still winning.
I'll take it up 40% with some dividends in there, too.
So, not bad, not bad.
Let's do that one.
All right.
What else do we got going on?
I was looking on my, like, macro calendar, and I didn't see any, like, you know, little
PMIs or whatever, ISMs or anything like that today.
A couple tomorrow, which are going to move some stocks.
So, nothing there.
EU says TikTok has until April 23rd to submit risk assessment.
Interesting.
I think Snapchat and Facebook are going to be interesting movers this week.
I think we might get a run-up right after that TikTok ban is signed for probably less than
a day or so, and then we might end up getting a decent pullback to the mean.
But if we saw a 5% move on either of those names, I think it could make some sense.
But, you know, given the fact that those things will go back through the Supreme Court and it
will take a long time before any TikTok ban actually happens.
Yeah, definitely have to keep that in mind.
But a psychological event would be interesting.
Big block sales hitting on NVIDIA.
Damn, NVIDIA wants to go green to red.
Microsoft just did it.
My portfolio just did it.
Okay.
All right.
Fair enough.
I am now down 0% on the day.
I am down $3.
Oh, there we go.
Back up.
Back up 0.1%.
The CrowdStrike puts from last week are up 35%.
Ooh, there we go.
Take a trim at 280.
Love to see that for you.
Down 9% over the last week.
Fair enough.
Yeah, this NVIDIA move is getting interesting.
It was up as much as, what, 5%, 4, 4.5%.
And now we're here fighting to get back up to up 1%.
It was like $30 up.
Well, I mean, maybe they're simply creating the Moose 4 earnings.
Think about it.
If SMCI, NVIDIA, all these stickers fall so much in such a short period of time.
NQ just broke another big pivot.
Suspend TikTok.
17, 220.
Yeah, Mikey, it gives you that different bar where, like, Tesla right now, they come
in and I truly, it would be difficult for me to see Tesla underperforming, underwhelming
on this call, given how low the expectations are.
It feels like if Elon goes up there and breathes three times, breathes three times on the call,
coughs once, and then signs off, it might be bullish.
And the only reason that is is because the stock's down 40% so far this year.
Oh, this is kind of where you have to watch your biases, because I saw it taking the turn
on ES.
But then, you know, in my head, I'm going six red days.
There's no way they're going to take us red.
And I didn't want to get caught in kind of a grind higher.
So it's always good to check your, I mean, it's okay not to take a trade.
So no big deal, right?
But at the same time, go ahead, Mike, sorry.
I was just going to say, also look at the internals, like ticker T-I-C-K on the NYSE.
That's going to kind of give you a blueprint of what may happen, kind of like the gamma
showcase into the future, per se.
What is T-I-C-K?
Did I miss it wrong?
It's the tick.
It's the amount of stocks ticking up or ticking down at any given time.
Hmm.
Look at the avancer's decline.
It's 1,900 to 800 declining on the NYSE.
2,300 to 1,300 declining on the NASDAQ.
Watching the gap fill here on NQ from the overnight session, we gapped up the Globex Open.
We're about to fill that gap about three, four points lower.
We're almost there.
Wolf, I know you got a call in two minutes.
Any comments here at the end?
Right now, I'm definitely experiencing that pullback as well.
Largely, well, yeah, largely due to Raytheon.
It just had a bit of a pullback here.
And so that's affecting, I have a couple of different sets of calls there.
Keep in mind, on Raytheon, they have earnings tomorrow morning.
Yeah, nice.
Down to hold through it.
It's not a massive position.
So I'm interested to see if that can get a little bit of a bounce back.
You know, crypto holding pretty nicely here, 66K here on Bitcoin.
SE's still been up really throughout the morning here.
Let's see.
Outside of those, Celsius did go red.
They're up like 3%, 4% earlier.
So that's not great to see.
And I'm watching kind of Lockheed.
I'm just very focused on defense and metals and areas like that right now.
Frankie, did you take that turn on M&Q?
That was a big move down.
You know, I did not.
I had a little bit earlier, but I'm kind of watching it here.
We filled the gap, so I think we might get a little bounce.
Yeah, we're getting close to a spot where I would consider taking a long.
Oh, that's what I like to hear.
That was 100 points.
Bitcoin new highs.
A little bit of a pullback up.
What are those, like, MSTR type stocks doing, moving higher with Bitcoin?
Yeah, MSTR is way up.
And coin, last I looked, coin was up.
Yeah, coin's way up.
Like 5%, 6%.
I have coin, I have as commons.
But it would have been nice to try.
I tried trading that coin L.
Is that the long coin a few weeks back?
And I wish I would have thought about, because, you know, I know the long ones, but I didn't
remember the NVIDIA short one or the coin short one.
So I'm going to write those down so I remember them.
From Granite Shares.
2X short NVIDIA.
NVIDIA.
NVIDIA, right?
I think that's not 2X.
But, you know, I didn't remember to use those as a tool.
Yes, you're right.
NVIDIA is the 2X short one.
I don't think there is a 2X short coin base.
What's the coin one?
Oh, there's not?
I don't think so.
Just long?
Just a long.
That's good to know.
Let me dig in a little deeper on that one.
No, last I checked, Granite Shares does not have a 2X short coin yet.
They do have the NVIDIA one.
They have a Microsoft one.
Tesla.
Oh, what's the Microsoft long?
Microsoft MS.
It is MSFL.
There you go.
MSFL.
It's actually a 2X Alibaba one.
B-A-B-X.
Fair enough.
I am seeing the NVIDIA one pulling back a little bit here, though.
That's what's happening with NVIDIA right now.
That's the short one, so I guess we're moving higher.
Oh, yeah.
Back up to almost 2%.
All right, though.
I think we're coming into this end of this good morning.
First of all, make sure you're following the amazing speakers up here.
We appreciate each and every single one of them.
Emperor Door has been on here since the morning show spaces
and everyone else hanging out, sharing some trades, sharing some thoughts,
getting ready for the week ahead in the stock market.
It should be a big one with massive earnings and massive macro news.
Make sure you are following each and every single one of them.
Stockwitz, Mikey, Shy, Shark, Kim, Frank, Zeus, Emperor Door, Craig.
Appreciate each and every single one of them.
You should check them out.
Spaces are a great way to find new people for your timeline.
It's really hard to hide when you're up on a conversation and talking.
And the truth is, if you don't enjoy their tweets later or posts later,
you can unfollow them.
But this is a great way to find new people for your timeline.
Check them out.
Give them a follow.
And to make new friends.
And to make some new friends, too.
And possibly some enemies.
Real quick, before you hop off, you better watch out, Evan.
I'm number three now in Predictogram.
30 days.
I'm at 82%.
Who's number one, though?
I'm coming for you.
Who's number one?
It's kind of lagging.
Feeling the pressure on making those predictions being number one?
It's been a little bit of a tough, tough week.
It's hard to stay at the top, right?
Well, the problem is, I definitely have a little bit of a long bias.
And I tend to do better predicting upside as opposed to downside.
And as you can tell with the market, we've pulled back a tiny bit.
So I have slowed down my predictions a little bit here.
Once we get those one or two days of upwards movement,
I might come in and hammer it there for the third day.
And maybe we get a trend off of that one.
But yeah, I definitely do better looking to the upside than the downside,
personally.
An intriguing one.
We'll stay here for another five minutes or so.
But I just wanted to make sure I got in there that you should follow all the speakers.
I appreciate you to never see one of them.
Interesting.
Let's take one more quick scan around.
NVIDIA is still holding up around that up 1.5%.
But it did get down pretty low at some point.
We'll see if that goes green to red.
Kind of feels like it wants to.
We've talked a bunch about how much data we have coming later in this week and how today
could end up being a little bit of a range day, a little bit of a chop day, which would
make some sense.
So I do wonder if we catch the bottom of whatever range we're in and stay within some box.
Feels like a good day for the box, Frank.
But yeah.
Spies coming back, testing the opening range low.
How has the volume been so far in early trading?
You're bearish.
We're trading 11 million shares right now.
16% so far.
Probably feels a little low.
Probably feels a little low.
Not much, though.
I did notice there was a big volume sell on QQQ a while ago, about 10.15, 10.20.
There was a pretty large sell order, it looked like, come through.
Let's see if I can find the actual amount.
Tesla cuts the marketing team.
What marketing team?
Fair enough.
They had 40 people.
Nothing.
Oh my god.
40 people is more than I thought.
I heard some interesting...
Based on what they do.
I heard some interesting inside information that I'm actually not allowed to share, but
Tesla marketing, intriguing operations.
Yeah, that order on QQQ, it was around 10.18.
There was about 2.5 million shares traded right on that one-minute candle.
Now, this headline's a little unclear if they're cutting 40, all 40 people on that team, or if the team...
I don't know, this is a weird headline.
But the exact thing is, Tesla cuts roughly 40-person growth content advertising team.
I'll have to wait for it.
Right now, it's just a headline.
I want to see what that actually looks like.
Oh, it's actually probably a part of those recent layoffs they did.
Fair enough.
Also, by the way, mall retailer Express has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Express, Express.
We had a conversation around this one.
I think there was rumors that they were planning to do it a little bit ago, because I remember
talking about this.
But, interesting to watch.
Did you say Express?
I did say Express.
Oh, where are you going to shop now, Evan?
You know, I think this was past my time.
I never...
I don't remember Express.
I don't remember ever being there.
I don't think I ever bought anything there, but I remember the stores, seeing those in
all the different malls, you know, the signs we talked about.
It was described as like a Hot Topic type thing, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
City Trends, maybe.
Express?
Yeah.
I've never been.
I've never been.
Or Buckle?
It's more...
It was more...
I'm trying to think.
Maybe like an H&M, kind of.
Okay.
I like me some good H&M.
Like a cheap, trendy type of fashion place.
Yeah.
It used to be in my day called The Limited.
Who owned H&M?
Then it was changed to Express.
Oh, is H&M private?
H&M is Swedish.
They have some good stuff.
Looks like it's traded in Sweden.
Or maybe like Buckle.
Yeah, that may be a good example, too.
Probably a cross between the two.
I've never been in Buckle either, so...
You have good jeans.
I hate jeans.
I'm a sweatpants only guy.
When I go to the exchanges, I'm the underdressed one.
You know, I gotta wear...
I gotta wear the nice pants and a button-up, but...
I am definitely not a jeans dresser.
Wolf, get this guy together.
Yeah, Wolf, buy me a suit.
With a Wolf lapel pin.
Every guy needs a good suit, Evan.
I have one.
That's your homework.
I have one.
But I'm literally sitting in my bed right now doing work.
So what do I need to dress up for?
For those...
You know, fuck it.
90% of the spaces this morning was hosted laying down in my bed.
And I'm gonna...
Once I end this, I'm gonna get up, walk around a little bit, go outside, enjoy the day, and
then come back in and lock in at my desk.
That's my plans.
I'm still in my pajamas.
All right.
I think that might end up doing it for us on the spaces.
Like I said, make sure you're following the speakers.
We are...
A bunch of us are probably gonna go over to Jordan's spaces, AceTheKidTA.
So if you're following most of us up here, a Mikey, a Shark, a Frank, an Emperor Door,
they're gonna be going right over there.
The others, Kim, Shy, Zeus, Craig with a G, they're always fantastic on these spaces.
And we talk with them multiple times throughout the week.
So you'll see them again on here.
Like I said, follow all the speakers.
This is a great way to find new people, find new friends, find whatever you're looking
for on this website.
Spaces is a great way to find it.
So I appreciate all of them.
If you guys have any final comments, final words, things you're looking out for later
this week, trades you're in, anything like that, I would love to hear it.
All right.
Bye-bye.
No takers.
Kim, appreciate you.
Appreciate all the amazing speakers up here.
Have a great one.
Take care.
Bye.
We've been doing Good Morning Fintwit here for probably, what, like three years now,
at least.
I'm just gonna say this is the longest running series on Spaces, on X, and we're never gonna
stop.
We're gonna be doing this in our 40s and 30 years from now, 20 years from now.
Yeah, 20 years from now.
Scary.
But yeah, this is something we want to keep going forever.
So I appreciate each and every single one of you guys for helping us make that possible.
Still, there's the start of everything we're doing.
And like I said, if you're following a couple of speakers up here, we're gonna be going over
into Jordan, Ace the Kids, PA, his spaces, and we'll be hanging out there for the rest
of the day.
So, appreciate everyone.
Follow the speakers.
We will catch you all.
If you're coming with us to Jordan's space right now, if you're hanging out on the Power
Hour space at 3 p.m. Eastern, excited to see you later today.
All right, see you guys.
All right, see you guys.
