Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
They Want You to Think It's Over | Market Check
Recorded: April 2, 2026 Duration: 1:09:30Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, good evening, good afternoon, wherever you are in the world.
Thank you so much for tuning in to another episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
Now you're probably thinking to yourself, this can't be Market Check.
There's only two guys up here right now.
Market Check always has four
who are these guys what's going on it's market check we're a little bit short we're a little
bit short staffed right now but tucker and tommy are both on their way i think tommy will be
joining us in a couple minutes and then tucker probably about 30 minutes into the show if I had to guess.
But in the meantime, Prometheus and myself are going to cook for you.
We're going to have a great show today, guys. It's Thursday. It's the second day of Q2.
Yesterday, we were so back. Today, it is so over. Will we ever exit the chop zone of death? Probably not. Get used to it. This asset class
is a hollow carcass of what it once was, a trending volatile asset class. And now
we have been overtaken by high leverage Forex traders that just keep winning. We don't trend
anymore, but that's okay. We're going to dissect all that and then some. Hopefully figure out and get a good gauge on when we will begin to trend again, either up or down. And we're going to do sort of a comprehensive market-wide scan as we usually do covering stocks, crypto, and other, maybe even some lean hogs. But guys, before we get too deep into the show, whether you're watching on YouTube or on X, do us a solid, hit that thumbs up, share the stream, leave us a comment, do
something, right? Do something, do anything, right? Do anything. But yeah, guys, we are,
we are ping-ponging, right? We are ping-ponging. We were above the monthly and quarterly open yesterday. Then Trump gets on stage and starts talking and basically we barred it down and now locally,
we're kind of trying to recover. But yeah, the only ones that are really winning are those that
are selling options right now and just selling options to willing market participants at a fair market price.
And they are collecting premium while we are experiencing decay. That's really the only
winner in this market is those writing the options. But maybe that will change soon,
right? Maybe that will change. But anyways, guys, Prometheus has got his chart up here.
Prometheus, what do you make of today's micro dump into micro pump?
Tell us what the next 24 hours, 24 days, 24 quarters, and 24 years hold for crypto.
You can't be wrong at all.
Okay.
All the pressure in the world, by the way. You can't be wrong at all so okay yeah i mean all the pressure in the world by the way like okay yeah yeah i i mean it's schizophrenia in a nutshell um i think my
prediction for the long term um bro hang on bro bro manish manish bro it's too early for your slander okay
manish it's too i need i need that like friendly boost of confidence say max you know what you
might be going clinically insane in this chop but i'm here for you like that's what i need i need
your hand on my shoulder telling me it's all gonna be okay all right that's what I need. I need your hand on my shoulder telling me it's all going to be okay. All right. That's what I need. Manish. Sorry, Barometheus. Please continue.
You're good. I think as long as you don't sell, eventually prices will be higher.
That's profound. Something just clicked for me when you said that yeah that was wild wow all right good stuff
we could just end the stream right here i think that was yeah i think that's investing in a
nutshell just just buy and just keep buying and eventually prices will be higher now did you
actually make real returns?
We don't worry about that, Max. We don't, you know, inflation adjusted, no, no.
You know, asymmetric opportunity, no.
It's just, we just look at the number, you know.
We're like-
Save all those fancy schmancy words
for another asset class, okay.
Yeah, is number bigger
than last number yes good yeah i like to formulate a 12 month bias based on like six hours of price
action yeah every man should yeah yeah i mean if you're not this this 10 minute handle changes the
next year for bitcoin right i mean as it should as it should you know if you're not
going clinically insane on the 30 minute then you know you're just not doing it right yeah that's
spot on well said now would you say would you say i would say i would say yeah i would definitely say okay and it looks like we have a tommy
i think tommy's in the wrong one sec guys tommy's having technical difficulties as always
um as always
okay he he clicked on the wrong link i think he was in I think he was in yesterday's. He was in yesterday's live stream.
So Max would say, you made a Volume Fusion
Pro 3000 V2X?
Wait, whoa.
Whoa.
You made a Volume Fusion Pro 3000 V2X?
Dude, that's incredible.
Did you link the source code?
Or did you leak the source code?
Max. I mean, dude, incredible did you link the source code or did you leak the source code max i mean dude i i didn't but i actually think i'm gonna steal his name for it i think i'm gonna rebrand my my strategy to the
volume fusion pro 3000 v2x because volume fusion pro was already a mouthful but we could make it even more of a mouthful we could
make it even longer um yeah that's a great idea that's a really great idea
you want it do you want to buy my volume fusion pro 3000 v2x mega ultra yeah
2x mega ultra yeah i think it i mean it has a lot of marketing value you know you just keep
adding numbers and letters i think we need some like vague hieroglyphs at the end too
yeah we could do that we could throw in some like random hieroglyphics and then maybe even just let's
for the fun of it let's just throw in some like cantonese or something you know oh yeah like in order to actually pronounce my strategy you actually have to be
fluent in like again like ancient like ancient egyptian yeah yeah like syria-aramaic or something Egyptian. Yeah, yeah, yeah. What do you call it? Yeah.
You'll have to get Duolingo or something.
Just not the stock.
The app.
The stock.
Bro, you know they're having a crisis over there.
They're having an absolute
crisis.
Yeah, this is what
happens when they don't get your intro i mean i didn't show
up late guys get on him you know it's not my fault the intro sucked it's tommy's he should
have been here i had to give a shitty intro i was in the wrong uh i was in the wrong lobby and i was
wondering why i didn't see any comments yet and i was just like is nobody here today? Not even the audience?
Now it makes sense.
They didn't like my intro, Tommy.
Look at this comment, man.
Manish came for my neck, dude.
Came for my neck.
And I said, dude, it's way too early for this.
I mean, I'm just talking, you know.
And he's just, Tommy's way better. Max sucks. Yeah, I get just talking, you know, and he's just Tommy's way better.
Max sucks.
Yeah, I get it.
I get it.
It's the entertainment flair.
No, I don't know.
It's not like that complex.
I think it's just kind of I'm used to it at this point.
So I'm not bad at it. No, you're great at the intro you're just bad at
finding the right lobby to get into the stream i don't even know how that happened
okay barometheus we're at value area low probably the best time to full port short
at value area low right that's usually a great strategy right yep usually works so i mean it's been working clearly
for you know the last two and a half months um if you have not been max short at 66k you're doing
it wrong yeah 66k if you short the bottom i think it's going to work if you attempt i'm basing that
off have you guys seen the BMB chart this morning?
I have.
Let's look at it.
Let's bring it on up.
What the hell is going on with this ticker?
Why is it weaker than even Solana?
Uh-oh.
That is interesting.
Some weekend fun coming?
A man can dream?
I think BNB doesn't have any more.
Can't wait for more exchange FUD to come out this weekend.
That's going to be great.
Some more stablecoin depegging?
Did we take out the low of the range from February?
Did we sweep that wick yet?
It's so close.
I don't show this ticker
necessarily into that wick.
Could be symbolic
for the rest of the market here.
I think sold started dropping yesterday.
BNB is dropping today.
I have to think that ETH and Bitcoin
are probably lagging it a bit.
Yep.
Well, that's great news.
That's super fun stuff.
Easy going to jail again.
Imagine that.
I have a friend who thinks we bought him on CZ
going to prison a second time.
He got pardoned like a year ago, right?
I know.
I don't think he'll get arrested again, but...
I mean, that would be insane to get pardoned and then like a year later go back.
Love of the game.
Sheer love of the game.
Max, what is holding up Andy at this point?
It is a simple market cap to LP ratio, my friend.
Go and look at the notional value of the LP compared to the market cap.
It's probably around 10%, if I'm guessing.
So, a prime
example is when we were at all-time
highs, the LP to market cap ratio was like 1%. There was like a
4 million, 5 million roughly LP value.
And the market cap was like 400 million,
which is crazy to think about
how much shittier things have gotten in crypto in general.
But that was like a 1% ratio, right?
Which means if somebody held 1% of the supply, they had about at the top 4 million, which was the value of the entire LP.
So if somebody just decided to market dump their whole position, the price impact would be huge.
It'd be like 20%, if not more.
Right now, somebody that owns 1% would hold about 80k of Andy and the LP being about 10%
is like 800k which is only 10% of the LP rather than like 100% of it so
it's really like it's a buoyancy thing where there's just a lot for the relative valuation
of the coin. There is a lot of buoyancy. There's a lot of like on-chain liquidity to sell into.
So it's a simple way of saying the on-chain books are essentially much thicker down here,
which doesn't mean we can't go down. Because obviously it's super correlated to what majors do,
and majors aren't doing shit.
But it just means it's going to take a lot more
to push it down significantly
and have large price impacts
compared to when prices are much more elevated.
And that's not just Andy. That's any on-chain more elevated and that doesn't that's not just andy
that's any on-chain shit coin it doesn't it doesn't matter it's all just lp to market cap ratio
so if majors move up we'll move up really hard majors move down we'll move down but it's not
going to be some like ridiculous you know like no one holds enough supply to nuke it to 1 million or something like that.
There's not a person out there.
You'd have to see a coordinated effort from the top 10 largest holders
all deciding to wake up and sell on one day,
which would be very, very unlikely.
So that's the technical reason as to why but i understand
you know you could look at the charts of any coin and just be like oh man like they're all so down
bad and you're right it's just you know understanding like the health of the project
and the price are very different things like and again, I'm not just talking about Andy.
Pick your shitcoin of choice.
It doesn't matter what it is.
These mechanics are a sign of health
and price is the most variable
and I would say short-term unimportant part
of an on-chain shitcoin.
The health of the project has never been better
it's just that all of crypto is depressed right now like everything is down so that's the technical
reason for what's happening but again if you're only focused on price you'll just be like yeah
it's just it's all cooked but it's all cooked. But it's actually positioned incredibly well for some asymmetric upside if majors can recover,
which again is a big if because majors aren't doing shit.
But it is important to acknowledge on-chain health when you're considering buying or adding to shit coins.
So that's the technical explanation.
But I get that most people just kind of look at price and they're like,
price up, healthy. Price down, unhealthy.
But actually, sometimes things can get way more unhealthy when prices get
really elevated really quickly.
The books become very thin price impact becomes a huge problem
at elevated prices down here like okay i'm not gonna do this i'm just gonna give you like a
really hysterical example okay and when i say hysterical i don't mean in the funny sense i mean
like people panicking if i were to wake up one day after getting severely concussed and I was like,
you know what? Today's a great day to sell all my Andy and dump on everybody.
You'd probably see price down like 10 to 15% and it would bounce back in the next 48 hours.
If I did that at all-time highs,
price would be down 35% or 40%.
That's the difference.
But again, I'm not going to do that.
I don't do things that would give me a concussion.
I'm mentally stable.
You're good.
But yeah, the art of shitcoin mechanics.
Truly few.
Truly few. but yeah the art of shitcoin mechanics truly few right truly few
all right i'm done with my my spiel that's it all right back to you barometheus all right
what do you guys make of the reversion today tommy what do you make of it we haven't heard much from you today brother i mean uh honestly like most of the overnight moves end up retracing
um in new york session it's like unless unless you drop like three percent or more in an overnight
session i would just assume that it's probably going to revert during a New York session at some point during the week.
I still think this is a lower high, though,
across, like, broader indices.
Yeah.
I think we got some gap fills on individual names, though.
So it's still kind of just like liquidity games. Yeah's fair i mean i i tend to agree like the gap fill on nvidia was crazy this morning
i mean that is schizo schizo price action but names like tesla um still showing weakness. What's interesting too, oil's up, what, 10% and 11% and I was so wrong
on my oil short. Dude, if it makes you feel better, I longed oil earlier this week and I
was so wrong. I got stopped out before this move. I think think it's going higher though at this point like
yeah the fact that we're now breaking higher um we probably sweep that wick at like 120
oh up here and then uh actually break out if i had to guess yeah i mean you kind of you flipped
i mean this was pretty heavy supply from the parabolic blow
off that we had. And I was like, I mean, there's no way they like allow this thing to unwind to
the upside here again. And then wake up this morning to just like what on earth, look at the
retest to flipping it, resistance into support. But what's interesting is like you have oil up like 10 11
percent and indices are flat and usually what we've seen is when oil goes green
um indices are red that's what kind of like the regime we've been in so i think it's because the
bond market is closed oh you think is that why yeah it's the bond market is closed. Oh, you think? Is that why?
Yeah. The bond market's closed today,
so you're probably not getting the same headwinds from rising yields.
That would just be my guess.
Because TLT is somehow green today, which I find hilarious.
But I don't think it's going to hold this support for that much longer.
You don't think it's going to hold 86 for much longer?
No, I think yields could be about to blow out.
Oh, man.
That would be crazy.
That, to me, is the big risk to the market right i mean we had tlt barely move and the move index like kind of gigascent what happens if we get an actual move down on treasuries oh
wow yeah i haven't looked at the sticker in so long
it's not really something that's like
worth keeping on the watch list all the time.
War is, we're all about war until the move index
crosses 100 and then it's just like,
and then it's just like actually i don't know if i was about that action
actually, I don't know if I was about that action.
what does that signal for you it being over 100 i mean i think it's kind of just like a
contextual level um but it it's kind of at the point where it's it's like if the move index
starts to go higher that's going to be inversely correlated with something like the xlf um and so if that starts to rip down then you're going to have the dow start to rip down also
uh which obviously is going to cause the broader market to sell off much more aggressively so i
think it's just kind of like still playing into that domino effect
they're gonna i i imagine they'll try to keep stair-stepping the market down
but i don't think they're going to be able to do that forever i guess we'll we'll see
we'll see right but i think uh i think the floor is going to give out on this market
fairly soon probably this month
fairly soon probably this month
i mean i tend to agree this just given the setup that we're kind of
showing here um i mean eth is quite clearly over the past two months accepting below
um last year's value you know value area low rather below last year's value area low um
and so i mean i'm like how long can eth trade below this level and not see some form of
continuation to the downside is my big question um because usually when you like if you're just
if you're just trading this like on the lower time frame right looking for like lower time frame
trading this like on the lower time frame right looking for like lower time frame setups
setups you know i mean generally you don't see this many retests of a key contextual level
um for eth and see it fail so many times and not have kind of like the you know the the unwind
in the move in the move happen and so i'm just looking at eth right now i mean we're retesting
the poc of the range quite clearly below it you pointed out bnb i looked at bnb this morning you
know breaking down from its range solana breaking down from its range um maybe crypto's telegraphing
what's next for for equities and equities are just going to be stubborn like equities are just
they just are stubborn um naturally so can take a while for you know said move to play out especially
in equities equities have that larger structural bid on a shorting goal just generally speaking yeah yeah i mean that's why nvidia keeps bouncing it's just basically correlated with volatility
at this point but i think i think when nvidia loses 170 165 for good
you're gonna see the market move down with much greater fervor
yeah yeah i agree like one yeah
i would have liked to have seen if i'm being honest the move stick from this morning
but i mean you are still underneath your high time frame resistance
like your support from the last what like 12 months for nvidia you're kind of doing some
form of underside retest is what it seems here so i'm just looking at this and i think it's like
you know i'd be very surprised if we reclaim this after the distribution that we had on NVIDIA
since August of last year.
They're trying to hold it.
They're trying.
You can tell.
Once NVIDIA moves,
I suspect we see implied correlations go ballistic.
Because there's just so much dispersion out there right now.
That if the market were to turn down, correlations have nowhere to go, but straight up.
Right.
We kind of started
to see that too
over the past
month.
What do you guys think about the seasonality of of the nasdaq i'm just looking at it right now
and going back to 2021
you basically had a pretty muted start to the year where like in q1 q1 you really haven't done too much especially in 2024 2021
2025 actually saw some downside where the nasdaq was bleeding in q1 but then managed to recover well through the rest of the year.
The only year going back to 2021
where we just kind of shit the bed was 2022.
Like, do you think if we can hold up here
through middle to end of April,
we can assume that maybe we don't see a crazy sell-off?
Yes, but I think it would have to be i need to see it from risk too right because there
is a world where risk kind of continues to sell off while index full stays relatively muted so
i think it would just kind of depend on what that looks like
I think it would just kind of depend on what that looks like.
Yeah, for me, it's like the S&P above or the ES above 6,800
kind of accepting back up within that upper range,
you know, for me is like, I, you know, it's just kind of like, okay,
you know, the bulls have clearly been able to recover this for,
you know, whatever, for whatever that means. But yeah,
acceptance back up within that range to me is pretty indicative of like,
that's like your line in the sand is a bear 6,800.
Yeah, no, that makes sense.
That definitely makes sense that definitely makes sense it's all
just love that
like could it be as simple as just longing the previous all-time high there
from the april sell-off or is it is that too easy
i mean i don't i don't hate it i, I think it's not how I trade, but, um,
yeah. I mean, more so just looking at this, like the real question for me is like,
is this like a structural like pullback or is it more just like fear driven pullback?
Cause like a fear driven pullback for instance would be like, I don't know, just looking like, say like in 23, right through the summer to fall of 23,
right. Fear driven pullback, you know, worries about inflation, but we really just continue,
you know, uh, structural pullback would be like, okay. Inflation fears are like ramping,
structural pullback would be like, okay, inflation fears are like ramping, you know, like, major,
major issues here. Right. And like, the real question is, is like, what is the current
geopolitical, you know, space? How does that affect, you know, assets moving forward? I think
that that's kind of like the real question is how how much is it going to impact everything moving forward I would like to see the private
credit issues resolved more than anything before I were to call a bottom
what happened with blue owl today they the health to halted redemptions
which is what uh what not was it blackstone that did that blackrock's private credit i think it was yeah blackstone halted um redemptions i don't know if you remember
back in like feb
oh my
Oh my.
I think software is the canary for private credit because a lot of these firms had huge exposure to software.
I have a buddy that actually just tried, like he just leaped jobs within private credit companies.
And he said that really the thing
that he was super fixated on
when he was talking to these companies
was how much exposure do they have to software specifically.
And maybe that's just kind of over-indexing
software's weakness over the last few months,
but I thought that was definitely notable.
That's interesting he must be a hot commodity to go in and be like hey you got too much software exposure i'll go to the next one
well i still think software i mean like this chart looks like coin um pitvox, if you guys remember him,
I don't really see him in the comments of the show
that much anymore, but he sent
me... I think it was
like... Hold on. Let me
look real quick. Something that I thought was
useful. Look at the
Invesco Euro
Trust. I'm not sure what the ticker is. Look at the Invesco Euro trust.
I'm not sure what the ticker is.
Yes, Max. Let me see.
It's probably in funds.
Okay.
Is it a bond ETF?
Could be FXY.
Could it be FXE maybe?
Yeah, it's FXE.
I think.
Euro currency trust.
No, this isn't it.
Damn it.
Or is it I can't remember how he set it up
never mind
what was he looking at
he was just kind of talking about
like the euro looked very bearish against the dollar, which, you know, I thought was interesting because we often see the euro not to get too deep into like forex stuff because most people find that very boring.
But like in the euro is going up, it's typically good for risk assets, specifically crypto. There's a pretty good correlation with Bitcoin and the euro is going up it's typically good for risk assets specifically
crypto there's a pretty good correlation with bitcoin and the euro dollar
it also fits my bias with usdjpy which i will keep saying is important because if usdjpy now
if it rips higher like it's going to be correlated
with tlt ripping down which means that we get a blowout in yields
so i feel like we've seen like a lot of shifts under the surface
but we haven't really seen like an ignition for some of these things to move in a volatile fashion
like they're just they're edging they're so close to moving they just haven't done it so uh done so yet yeah i mean i i agree with that
it it does feel like the market's edge maxing a little bit
needed to be jester gooning
you know what i think is a short here guys is palantir really yeah
is palantir really yeah now it's to me starting to look just like the may 2021 shoulder on bitcoin
yeah i i mean i see it
oh man what's hood doing today floating floating i had some short exposure but i took it off
and then was like starting to add a little bit yesterday um but then like i didn't like this
close or i didn't like this close one bit um and i was wanting for it to get above 71 this is kind
of like my oh the heck just happened um i was looking for it to kind of start closing above 71 here
and i just i mean it just looked weak especially if you got down on like the lower time frame
but it's floating i mean i think there's probably better things to short.
You know, I mean, this is pretty, you know, pretty large bullish divergence here forming.
I think it's probably not individual,
like an individual weakness
or just systemic to this name itself, right and this i mean if this gets dragged down
it's probably because the rest of the market's dragging it down not because like robin hood has
something like fundamentally flawed with itself and because that i don't want to be i don't want yeah see this this robin hood chart is really interesting to me
because it it kind of feels like they're trying to bait you into shorting that that low yeah a
little bit but if it moves higher i i can't imagine that it's going to move higher.
Substantially higher, yeah.
Yeah.
I don't know if this is like bottom-bottom,
but I just feel like this is kind of a risky rip-your-face-off kind of short level.
Yeah.
Honestly.
Yeah, that's why I took my exposure off.
I was like, i'm not really
actually liking this that much yeah but i also will say like if if it is going to give some
temporary relief like i would imagine crypto would probably follow it right i mean it is a crypto stock to a degree there's a lot of crypto
exposure baked into robin hood but i don't know i mean it's just like i i can't short like a limp
meat after a 50 move down on a stock right with a huge gap above head and like kind of sitting on top of like a support level
which is like that high before the the big breakout that's a dangerous level to to be
expecting lower at doesn't mean it can't go lower it just seems like that's a really dangerous spot
to to try to to do it it's kind of like shorting crypto here that's how i feel too it's like i can have a
bearish bias but man like you could see bitcoin even squeeze 10 from here
and still be bearish you know what i mean oh yeah 72 easily yeah like you have to be really caught like i mean they could run this thing back up to damn near range high you know probably yeah right there
that level maybe a little lower like that's the supply right there like the underside of that
you know what they would do like you're talking up here like take this high i was gonna say the
underside of it like like right there.
Yeah.
Like that wouldn't surprise me. That would be very like scammy crypto classic to just like rip you up there.
Pretty sure you have some single prints in here too.
in here too oh yeah oh yeah yeah
Oh yeah.
Oh yeah.
Yeah.
i think this is a great spot to short nvidia
i'm not gonna lie nobody's gonna want to do it but
if i will say i will say max if they run it up into these single prints like here
they're probably gonna take the liquidity at these highs and you're gonna come up into these single prints like here, they're probably going to take the liquidity at these highs
and you're going to come up into this value right here.
And then at that point, like, I mean, I could even see like some form of fake out,
even taking this one out.
And then you just, and they just drop it back down within here.
And this is a super, super good short opportunity.
Or maybe even like what they did back here where they like drag
it out they're like oh we're so back we're above the range highs everybody pile in get super super
long and then just boom back down within the range yeah it's and can you zoom out a little
bit and just draw like you had a volume profile on this whole range
yeah
I mean if you
just look at where we're sitting
it's like
it's right at the value area low
yeah I mean that's just like
once in a while that does work
you know like once in a while you can just be like a greedy bear
and just hammer something.
But nine times out of ten,
it's going to be a little tougher than that
to catch the breakdown short.
Yeah, because the breakout only happens, like you said,
one out of every ten times.
I mean, the rest of the time, you're just getting ping-ponged.
And each one of those dives to the range low look terrible.
Each one of them looked like we were getting ready to slide.
Yeah. yeah also i've been noticing a lot of the moves have been happening in like the middle of the night
like what is up with that like this happened in the middle of the night this happened in the
middle of the night i mean move it's because the stock market's closed.
I think because of Asian markets.
Specifically Japan.
Probably.
Not sure what the Nikkei is doing right now, though.
Or what it did last night.
Yeah, the Nikkei was down 2.5% last night.
Can't understate Japan's importance to American markets right now.
Broader market liquidity.
Can we look at their indexes, Prometheus?
Yeah, where's it?
NIN 225.
It's been trading a lot like Tesla recently, ironically.
It does look like Tesla.
Why does that look like Tesla?
It looks like BNB.
Yes, there it is.
There it is. That's exactly what I was going to say.
Yep.
Even those drops to the left right there.
The parabola.
Yes, sir.
That's funny.
See what I'm talking about?
I mean, obviously a little little different but like kind of
kind of same same
I mean it is
pretty freaking close
I mean obviously
their
index has more
insulation than
VNB but
well does it now
I mean I would think,
but maybe not.
I mean, it literally
looks like the Nikkei
is trading right here.
Jeez.
I've got a much more violent
frackle than Nikkei, but... Did you say violent? Yeah, that's for reasons. I've got a much more violent fractal in the NK but
you say violent
yeah that's for reasons
I won't elaborate
dude I mean this is a fragile structure
like this looks identical
it does
like a little pit stop after the breakout i mean what if we put bmb on the compare symbol or the
price like a different price scale what it looks like i wonder jeez bmb top before uh the nikkei
the nikkei were to catch up to bmb it would be trading at around 35 32 000
jeez like 30 35 38 jeez what is uh what does the cosby look just realized oh my gosh yeah i was like wait what huh
the issue because i've been wanting to short japanese uh assets this looks super
um but uh just the options are so expensive.
That looks cooked, man.
This is the Korean stock index, right?
Yeah.
Stock market.
Why does that look like silver?
It does.
Same time frame, too.
I haven't looked at silver in a while.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, I had some people
in my life telling me I needed to pile
into silver on the
big move up.
I genuinely
can't.
I'd love to join you on this excursion,
but I cannot chase this.
I will let silver go to 500 an ounce
before I chase a move like that.
I can't.
Every generation over the past 50 years
has had one opportunity to get a parabola in silver.
That was our generation's parabola
this is a good point
it does i'm looking at it right now
zcash has been one of the stronger alts and well i mean i guess that's kind of like a relative
statement but i remember i had some friends who were trying to long in a few days ago no no i was sure i was their counterparty max i think it's pretty similar
to your idea for uh for pepe a little bit it's a good one it is
i like that level, Barry.
Been saying 120.
120.
I beg.
I'm just a man who wants volatility.
Is that so much to ask?
Way too much to ask.
You will get chop. Best I can do.
We will break down next week.
I believe the next three weeks will be very red.
And then you buy the generational bottom.
I hope so I cannot show you publicly
the Pepe fractal
I can't do it
I hate to say that
but I simply
cannot do it man
people will be at my
neck over it
it's just an idea, you know?
I'm just a fractal chud, that's all.
Just a humble chud.
That's it.
But it's a good one.
Prometheus andy both saw it
it's in my object tree now really you liked it that much i did
well i mean honestly like a lot of these without giving it away like a lot of these alt coins
are starting to look like that low vol. I mean, they look
less accumulative at this point
than they did a few weeks ago.
They look more like this is vol death
at support before we
put just a knife through
the heart.
What did?
Like a lot of these altcoins.
Like Asui.
Pepe.
I mean, even Solana, BNB, which are now breaking down, by the way.
I mean, we've already talked about that.
Do you think, Tommy, is this that kind of inflection point in the market
or fork in the road where people are like,
oh, it can't get that bad, conditioned to buy the dip?
Yeah.
That kind of what your bias is.
It's exponentially worse.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Things won't get that bad.
And then, you know, I think, yeah.
I mean, I think these squeezes keep luring people
into probably like a dangerous headspace
that that support for Taco
is always going to be there for
the market and i don't know i don't know i think you do know i have dubious uh speculations but i
do not know anything for certain we could we could stay in like this-down, bull-down regime, but I'd rip my hair out.
I just think it's unlikely
based on the way that Trump markets
tend to trade.
Which is
very high levels of volatility.
Do you guys think that there's any way the republicans win the uh
election yeah i do um not to get too political but i was kind of thinking about that with markets
i think i i could make an argument for you but it would probably be overly political. So I'm not going to make it.
Not on this show,
but maybe afterward.
I personally,
not to get political,
I will just say,
I see it being pretty,
pretty tough.
History is not on their side.
Pretty tough. Yeah. Now, being pretty pretty tough um history is not on their side pretty tough yeah
now what does that mean for crypto because if they can't get elected and the other party's been
at least the last sitting president was you know vocally against crypto um
maybe they are what if they push the clarity act back until the
until you know the next president big haggie oh the boy is back the main reason um
the main reason the clarity act won't pass is because of Coinbase.
Oh, yeah.
Brian Armstrong.
Dude, what is his deal?
They want to be able to offer better yield than banks.
be like a crypto bank because they're getting just lapped everywhere else dude i you like
Because at this point, Coinbase's business model is going to have to be like a crypto bank. Because they're getting just lapped everywhere else.
you could never convince me to hold coinbase stock over robin hood you could never no no never
not even now hype is pretty elevated, but...
Prometheus, can you chart
Hood against Coin?
I know Hood's down right now,
but I just want to see what they look like.
Honestly, I think this chart keeps trending higher
over the next decade. I i mean they are a size
bottomed out the sun once again circles the earth you wouldn't get it my name i was uh at trivia last night with my neighbor um he was like super super into the
wait whoa hold up hold up hold up hold up so one second is that trivia yeah
oh yeah he lives in denver they drink Hell yeah, bro. Have you ever done trivia?
Have you ever drank an IPA and just put a delicious double cheeseburger
and a few pitchers of lager?
I think that would be pretty fun.
That would be pretty fun.
Just throw on your newest, freshest Patagonia.
Head down to a local bar.
Grab an IPA.
Take it out of the bowl and answer some questions about movies. You know he's wearing a Patagonia right now. You know what's so funny about it? He's answering questions about movies.
You know he's wearing a Patagonia right now.
I know.
This is not a Patagonia.
That is Patagonia adjacent.
I think Abercrombie or The Gap.
No, that's got to be a Patagonia, bro.
It's not a Patagonia.
You have the Patagonia vest?
No, I actually don't. i don't have a single vest i actually still have one in college that i cannot wear
anymore but what was funny about trivia last night was i was there was a question that asked like what
country i mean obviously it's going to ask you this in like a
convoluted way but it was this country that I'd never heard of before um sounded very like
it did not okay so here's what I'll say um when I was on mark I wasn't speaking on market talk
yesterday but I was listening and there was a speaker there who said he wasn't from the US. And I clicked on, you know, because X will show you where they're from. And I'm like, I've never heard of this country before in my life. And I look it up. It's from South America. And that ended up being a trivia question later in the evening. How crazy was that? And I knew the continent was in South America.
What country? crazy was that my new continent was uh was in south america what country i don't think i would
be able to pronounce it but it was like oh come on oh god i bet i know it bro it's like
starts with a g i'm a bit of a geographical wizard tommy galapagos galopi
i can't remember it was like guiana or something like that guiana yeah or guayana
it wasn't guatemala and it wasn't guinea central central it. There was a Y in it. I think it's Guyana.
But I'm probably butchering that.
And it's in South America.
I would have never known that if I hadn't tuned into Market Talk earlier in the day.
Oh, it's in the Caribbean, bro.
The Caribbean doesn't count, dude.
No, it's on the continent.
It's part of South America.
It is impossible to know all the countries in the caribbean dude this is the one
yeah yeah but yeah i i got to look very smart at trivia knowing that
fun fact what are we looking at here prometheus
hooding coin on the left and uh soul eth on the right
oh wow interesting
it kind of i'll tell you what that kind of looks like too is palantir the hood coin chart
the hood coin chart.
Put Palantir on the right.
Somewhere in here.
This is the devil's advocate for another leg.
Higher.
I see. Yeah. i see yeah i feel like hood will hold up better with downside than coinbase will from here
i agree with that because there's no diversification at all with Coinbase, man.
Like, Hood still has other revenue streams, you know.
Coin will get double.
It's identical.
At some point, Coin will get double wrecked because a huge portion of their reserves are not in cash,
but coins, which is great in an uptrend, but obviously very bad in a downtrend.
Whoever's bidding Palantir is also bidding this Robinhood coin pair.
I mean, this chart is identical.
Zoom in a little bit.
They are very similar.
The question is, do you think it is about to give the blow-off
leg, or do you think it already has?
See, this is
when I look at the hood coin
chart,
that to me kind of
looks like it wants to shoulder still.
The hood coin, this one? Yeah, like it looks like it wants to shoulder still the hood coin this one yeah like it looks like it wants to pop up into some
just greasy shoulder
dare I say
we just do one of these i see what you're talking about though
i just think coins absolutely screwed it's very easy for me to see this chart going higher
not this chart going higher
not this chart the one before it no yeah
like that just looks so bad to me
greasy ass shoulder. What would you guys think is the bull case for coin here moving forward?
Like, let's say this is bottomed and that, you know, somehow, let's say somehow this is bottomed and moving forward.
Like, what do you think sustains the stock?
Bitcoin's going up bitcoin and eth specifically but like
what there is a ball to save the chart and then there's a bull case on a relative
gail as well and like the the latter is much harder for me to come up with like what what's the reason
to hold coin over coins hyper liquid or robin hood if the market's going to turn up from here
right i mean what if they get some deal and like they're able to provide better yield than
the banks i mean i'm not saying that's the case. Like, what if,
what if there is some bull case there that we're missing that like they get access,
I don't know, to like do some crazy, you know, I don't know, some crazy like payments or something, you know, like cross-platform transactions or something like that
yeah
yeah yeah everything in your i'm really trying to say yeah
you're probably asking the wrong guy. Yeah. I'm just throwing it
out there, you know.
I mean, who
would grant them that?
The government would just be like, okay,
you guys are running our
crypto rails now?
I mean, they basically kind of already did that.
The SEC does have an office in coinbase's office yeah i didn't know that that's that's
oh yeah oh yeah so illegal the secret ingredient yeah
voice so illegal the secret ingredient yeah it reminds me of who's the guy in billions the
little hr guy that everybody hates this is true um re what yeah yeah dude that's that's like the CC guy who works at Coinbase or whatever. That guy. That guy.
I mean, there's these sleeper, like
sleeper American
companies
that are just, just go under
the radar, but they just literally go up
only. Like
Home Depot? Not sleeper, but that's a up-only store.
Costco.
Barry just put in here, TJ Maxx.
Oh, my God.
Home Goods and Marshalls.
Look at this, dude.
Why are we not maxing stay-at-home mom vibe?
Why am I not TJ Maxxing?
Yeah, why?
I'm sorry. I'll show myself out yeah texas roadhouse
oh i mean it's pretty easy uh it's easy for me to explain Texas Roadhouse outperformance. That looks horrible, though. I'm not going to lie.
It's just consolidation,
brother.
I mean, that looks a little distributive
to me. No, it looks extremely distributive.
I'm just...
I'm just trying to be an
optimist on the $20 stakes.
That looks like the Aptos
top.
Didn't, like, the head of aptos like leave
yes and then he started another like private venture firm
dude is just like a master of max extraction yeah how like at what point are you just like good
you know what i'm saying like at what point can you just walk
away i mean bro is just a marketer if we're being honest this chart is so gross
i do love me some texas i haven't been to te Roadhouse in years. Does Waffle House have a
ticker?
Oh my god.
Let me full port immediately.
What about IHOP?
You know, after my wedding,
I went to Waffle House.
Oh, really?
Yeah.
We took a party bus there it was righteous hell yeah pull up vvv vvv
usdt
no venice token
look at it
first one's fine whatever
look at this thing what in the world
god lying
what crime
is occurring on this chart tucker
i don't know but something is occurring
you know what kind of looks like actually is uh uh not exactly
what i was gonna say rich tech robotics which is a uh ticker dorito shield me
before it pumped um way back in the day
doesn't really look the same i was trying to look for some like fertilizer stock yesterday
because of the whole hornoose hormones thing but a lot of them have pumped already what like they're gonna bomb places
no no no like this straight being closed is really bad for food production and fertilizer
industry i guess interesting you could just short tlt because it's i feel like the agriculture play is a yield play.
Right?
Like, they're very similar charts.
I have no idea, to be honest.
Pull up a... Hang on, I've got a ticker for you.
Fertilizer stocks.
NTR. pull up uh hang on i've got a ticket for you fertilizer stocks ntr
ntr nutrition nutrient yes i'm kidding but zoom out a lot zoom out a lot go to like the weekly
or the two week even yeah yeah see it already pumped from the straight thing yeah
I'm not interested
bear
or what's another one
IPI actually looks kind of
kind of juicy
intrepid Potash.
Yeah, I don't even know.
Look at this.
It's a low cap, I'm pretty sure.
Oh, my God.
That looks amazing.
Yeah, bro.
But they split before 2016, so you got to.
But still.
Yeah, I mean, it's only a 500 mil market cap.
Looks like an altcoin that Will would be scooping off the floor.
It does.
It does.
You remember he would say pay-pay?
I was thinking about that this morning.
Pay-pay?
I do remember that.
Yeah.
Dr. Outlook.
All right.
You guys want to wrap it up?
Oh, shoot.
Hour 10.
Sure.
All right, guys.
Hope we all enjoyed the show today.
A reminder that we host Market Check Live throughout the week on the following days when the New York Stock Exchange is open, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
However, tomorrow is a holiday, so we will not be here as the market is not open.
So this is our last show of the week.
We hope you've enjoyed this week's shows thus far, at least the start to the quarter.
We'll see what we get here over the next few weeks. And of course, throughout the month of April, we'll be here to cover it with
you guys. Our typical start time for market check is around 1130 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. So
we'll catch you guys again next week on Monday. See where everything shakes out over this long
weekend. Of course, also make sure to tune in for Market Talk hosted by the legendary King Wabi
and through the Because Bitcoin account on X. That is a spaces. So make sure to stay following
and subscribe to both of those accounts so you can be notified not just when we schedule those
spaces, but of course, also when we go live. But yeah, that's it from us, guys. We hope you have
a great rest of your day, a great rest of your week, uh, a great, uh,
a great weekend if you're celebrating.
And of course, um, yeah, we'll see you guys again on Monday, but thanks again and, uh,
stay safe. Outro Music
