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TRADING WEEKLY RECAP WITH HORSE AND RUNNERXBT
Recorded: May 2, 2025 Duration: 0:54:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored Bitcoin's impressive growth, with prices nearing $98K and Saylor's ambitious plans to raise $84 billion for further acquisitions. The conversation also touched on market trends, the potential for new token launches, and the ongoing debate between Bitcoin and altcoins, highlighting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the crypto landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Hello, Anne.
Can you let me just add you up
okay you should both be able to speak now.
Let's see if this works.
Sometimes it's a little bit difficult.
Yeah, it seems to be all good.
Awesome, awesome.
All right, well, I'll let you guys take it away.
Horst, are you okay?
Is the speaking thing working?
Yeah, can you are you uh okay is the speaking thing working uh yeah can you hear me
clearly yeah yeah you're coming to create awesome okay well i'll let you guys take it away cool
sounds exactly like skew runner you know how skew sounds um anyway uh yeah what's up, guys? It's Friday.
It's 12 p.m. my time, lunchtime, going into the weekend.
I have a few things to talk about.
Obviously, Bitcoin has had a good week.
There's been some updates with regard to Saylor and Strategy and their plan to raise more.
I think, what was that?
$84 billion to purchase more Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is tapping at $98K.
The S&P is above its probably most significant line in the sand, which is $55K.
I think the next major area of business is probably around the 200-day moving average.
Markets look good.
They look even better, in my opinion, for a sell in May and go away situation.
I'm kind of sticking to that theme, stuck to that over the last few years and cycles, the whole concept of sell in May and go away. A lot of the
times that's front rent and it's not necessarily the case that markets are not tradable over the
summer. It's just that it's unlikely that they're going to continue to trend over the summer.
And we normally see things improve again post labor day so i don't
know runner if you have anything you want to immediately get into or any thoughts you want to
touch on right from the start no i guess uh the main topic today would be sailor which you
touched on already because they basically went full insane mode which I guess you have to pick your side, right?
Are you a supporter of that or are you a bit scared? But as you said, they basically decided to double the 2121 strategy, which to make it very, very easy to understand is they can buy $21 billion worth of BTC more from ATMs, which is essentially selling MicroStrategy stock to buy
more BTC. That's what they've been doing basically since November of last year. So some of those
weeks, let me actually pull up the data exactly. The whole basically all those weeks of them buying
billions of dollars per week, that was through ATMs. So basically this Monday, just this Monday, a few days ago,
they had like 120 million left.
And I even posted, hey, they're out of money
when it comes to ATMs.
But Sailor being Sailor and strategy being strategy,
they had earnings, I believe, yesterday or the day before.
And they announced basically doubling it.
So here we are basically
the ldr is here is sailor has 21 billion dollars extra to buy btc and i think that's part of the
price action we see right now yeah i mean the guy is um he's a madman. I don't think there's like any other way to put it.
It is kind of off-putting, honestly.
I shared yesterday and I received some flack because, yeah, there's definitely examples of entities that have more concentrated positions, whether you're talking about Buffett and Treasuries or Bezos owning 8% of Amazon, Vanguard ETFs.
Bezos owning 8% of Amazon, Vanguard ETFs. But I don't think there's a singular case of someone
stepping into another market and lifting this much size and controlling this much of a stake
of any other asset. So even people that own the most significant amount of gold,
I don't think come as close to a sailor does when it comes to controlling
two and a half percent of BTC supply at this point. I think Satoshi Nakamoto's control,
his wallets are maybe 4%. So I don't know, it's a little bit off-putting to me. I know that it's
not sailor outright, like his personal holdings are a fraction of that. And MicroStrategy is, you know, it's essentially basically like a, you know, really well engineered financial flywheel ETF
hybrid that's kind of a first of its kind. The net asset value is still trading 2x.
So that as long as that exists, like this can continue to persist at different levels obviously he's gonna go for
the home run here i mean i don't know how much this has on price impact this has how much of an
effect this has on price action when we are outside of like really bullish conditions um because if
you just go back to like i don't know good line in the sand is like the end of December, end of November.
I think from that point, Saylor has bought maybe like $12 billion worth of BTC, and he's down around 2%.
BTC is off the highs.
So throughout that entire structure, you know, throughout this entire structure and this drop, he has been the largest single buyer, at least public single buyer of BTC.
And buying 12 yards of Bitcoin didn't stop it from moving down to the 70s.
He's obviously added since, it was probably like eight or nine yards of BTC into the lows
so that he was buying from willing sellers.
So there was a pretty even transaction there.
So this is, I think, a really good thing in a bull bull market i don't know if it's going to have much of
an impact in the short term um markets are super focused right now on on headlines i don't know
how you feel about the headlines or how you feel about the overall month of may and june
yeah basically go to the point where i just muted words that if i cannot deal with that
shit anymore.
Because whenever Trump, Besant, or Lutnik speak,
it's just, you know, my phone is like a vibrator.
It's the news feed from Delta Bloomberg or DB,
TreadFi accounts, like nonstop.
And some personally, I bet I don't care much about that.
No more.
But TreadFi, you know, what I found interesting
was Trump a few days ago said something along the lines of,
you cannot blame the stock market on me.
It's a Biden's market.
But since that statement is basically up only,
which I found hilarious, he basically
made sure that no matter where it goes,
he doesn't want to take credit for it.
But since that statement alone,
I believe it was on Monday or Tuesday,
it's a bone leverage.
As for like May,
I was kind of confident
I'm just going to take a summer off.
May, June, July, maybe even August
into the Labor Day.
But with this 2121 extension i i think i have slightly different
views than you do um basically what i want to see now it's friday so we're not going to see
shit until sunday but potentially next sunday i just want to see what sailor buying and potentially
how much and i think that loan will kind of set the tone for the rest of the 21 billion if you will
because i do agree with you.
Or I guess what seems to be the pattern if the NAV premium
seems to be, let's say, around 2x, they seem to buy.
So let's see if that's the case.
And if we can make some patterns and conclusions,
if you will, about how they're going to purchase the 21B.
Yeah, that's a good point.
So if this is starting,
seeing some kind of footprint of him
in the order flow
and seeing what kind of impact
on the market that has,
that's probably a good litmus test
to base any kind of assumptions off of.
Because if he starts to have
a significant impact on the market,
being that we've come off the lows and we're not like this market is definitely still very
much split like it's it's not over leveraged at all right now it's not saturated by any means
but it is largely following equities with exception from you know literally from april 2nd which is
the most important line in the sand equities were down down 10% before that, and BTC was down as well,
but BTC has definitely held up in the face of all this tariff talk.
So if he does have an impact on the underlying,
that would be something that, yeah, he'd be worth sticking around for.
I do look at the Trump comments as kind of a way of him deferring responsibility.
And I have a tough time wrapping my head around him doing that
if he didn't think or know in advance that there are some things
that were going to be coming down the pike
that would end up sending markets lower
because I don't think he would want to risk giving credit to Biden
because what he essentially said was the next quarter is going to be on Biden, too.
So the next the next quarter going into into summer, anything that happens between now and then, that's Biden's fault.
And being that we're in the beginning of the quarter, it is a little bit ominous that he's saying that right now.
And it is, I think, a reminder that we are approaching the trade deadline for all the talks and negotiation.
And if nothing comes of that,
and it was all this kind of bluster and bluffing and nonsense,
then over the next six months,
markets will absolutely see a material impact
from all the things that will be changing
that have not changed in the last multiple
decades, major relationship changes, trade changes.
So yeah, I don't know.
I'm open to him kind of having wind or knowing that nothing really good is going to come
of these talks, supposedly.
I mean, the market was up overnight.
China had said something on their own for the first time in a while that did.
It didn't.
So Trump has been saying things constantly. Like you said, your phone's blowing up, right?
Trump has been saying things and then they're just getting walked back.
Where China is basically saying to the effect, Trump is lying, right?
So last night, though, about 15 hours ago, China had said that they're evaluating possible talks.
And then Rubio followed up with that.
So it's good to hear it from them.
But I am just a little bit, I guess, a little bit more cautious with where equity sit and
what kind of drag that would have if they started turning around.
But paying attention to the seller's impact, obviously, I think that's kind of a given.
You have to.
You can't just, I'm not going to sit here and say that if he continues to buy BTC, it's
not going to have any impact.
He is taking an asset that has a low float and removing it from the market.
So I think overall, that is really good.
Oh, by the way, guys, if anyone wants to chime in, these spaces are relatively short.
So by all means, raise your hand and feel free to participate, ask questions, go back and forth with us.
you know, go back and forth with us.
I know both of us are open to that.
I know both of us are open to that.
What else do we have coming up, though?
Today we had, well, we had non-farm payroll,
and the next week is FOMC, right?
And that's irrelevant because the cuts are already triced out,
essentially, until June.
Yeah, not much happening.
There's, as you said, FOMC, there's also MicroStrategy.
They have, like, a conference thingy next week.
So I've seen some of the, like, nonstop bullpost accounts
saying that you'll see some big announcements from that.
But I'd rather wait.
You know, I'm definitely not, let's say'm definitely not buying into the hype, if you will.
So May 5th to May 8th in Orlando, there's a Strategy World Conference.
So I can definitely see some big, basically someone trying to copy Sailor.
Yeah, that would be great to get that sort of that copycat going. We already saw that with what's it called? Was it GMA? Right. And Andrew Fitzgerald. What's his name? Brendan Lutnik.
them, I guess, supposedly starting something along the same lines. And these things are,
you know, this is, I think we all have, I know you have, I think have become more of a Bitcoin
maxi over the last year or so. I become more of a Bitcoin maxi with every alt, every alt trend back
to the lows. So like five, 10 year horizon has always been pretty clear to me. But are you a buyer of alts at all lately?
Have you been buying into this?
Because they're not like from an open interest dominant standpoint.
We're not at any kind of position where there's a ton of leverage in the market.
So a lot of this is, it seems to me a lot of this is shorts closing and then actually some spot buying coming back to the market.
No, I mean, I'm not buying altcoins, TLDR.
I just, I actually kind of want to bounce back
with a question of my own.
You know, if we have a sailor, quote unquote,
saying, hey, we're going to buy a bunch of BTC,
a bunch being 21 billion minimum,
how do you think that affects altcoins,
especially the alt-BTC pairs?
Because I just, again, i know i sound like a broken
clock but i just you know as long as we have these billions and billions buying btc and we know these
people will not rotate to altcoins will not rotate to eef i just don't want to personally fade that
so i'll stick to bitcoin and yeah no i completely agree i am not I am not someone who trades alts I rarely trade
them I trade them when there's an overall drift in the market or overall momentum but it's it's
very few and far in between and a lot of times I feel like you could easily defer to future alt
performance as the things that are going to do well are probably not even coming to market yet or have not come to market yet because I think the sort of the clothes are off
when it comes to a lot of the alts that people have been hyping up over the last year or so.
You know, it's only so many times you continue to get, you know, smashed all the way back to
the starting point and still be really confident about the long-term future of something. I mean,
I know I'm not a picker.
I know there will be sort of the anomalies of the bunch that end up doing well, but I
have no idea how to identify them.
I know you could probably make a case for hype being something that is more fundamentally
driven right now, or at least people are buying it on the presumption that it is.
But no, I always kind of find it funny that buying Bitcoin is already kind of taking a step
into the four-lane highway to pick up the $100 bill. If you come from TradFi, it's already
something that's further out the risk curve and is generating more yield than buying a lot of the
things that you can buy in TradFi. So there's already this risk that you're taking by getting involved in BTC.
And then for people to just overlook the performance of that
and consistency of that from a risk-adjusted return standpoint
and then jump right into alts, it always seems pretty stupid.
Like they're all trying to be BTC to some effect.
So yeah, while I trade some momentum here and there with alts,
I'm in the same boat.
I think a lot of them are, for the most part, vapor.
But that's what makes this place pretty compelling is that there's no friction for anything to come to market.
So if we're approaching a period where over, let's say, from 2026 on, I'll just guess, like the end of the year, we start doing really well in markets and into
2026. Who knows why we get there? Maybe it's because something breaks and they have to step in.
But I think that naturally, there'll be a bunch of projects that surface. They parrot and kind of
piggyback any dominant, real, tangible narrative that's taking place, which is probably AI.
And you could continue to see this behavior persist, but none of these will be sticky
over a multiple-year time horizon against BTC.
I don't know.
Is there anything that maybe Doge has done well historically against BTC consistently?
No, nothing comes to mind that's actually from BTC on a long enough time frame.
Not that I'm aware of, at least.
Yeah, so it's a very short-term thing with all.
I do find it kind of interesting.
Sorry, go ahead.
No, I was going to say there's just so much survivorship on CT.
Like if you look around, it's always like, no, you don't understand. You know, if you bought this all, you would have made, you know, $5 million off of a $10,000 investment, something like that.
But the reality is like most of them just absolutely dump and have terrible performance.
But at the same time, even though I'm not the biggest fan of altcoins publicly, I do understand that mindset because most of people who are just getting into crypto, you know, like, let's say they have whatever 5k, 10k portfolio, they'll be like, hey, I cannot turn this into millions on BTC, which I think is fair argument.
argument so you know the the next argument is always oh you know I'm gonna try to catch 10 20
x so I do understand that argument and at the same time while shitting on altcoins I just you
know understand that it's probably the only way for people to make it these days like btc is 100k
we have president of the United States buying sorry not buying but like talking about crypto we have you know ibit blackrock
bitcoin spot etf being one of the most successful ets of all time reality is you're probably not
really early right as much as it sucks to say so you kind of have to i guess chase these you know
higher beta plays altcoins mean coins and. But it's interesting to see,
because I think when you're trading alts,
you just always have to,
or like people that I've seen do well,
is, you know, write the altcoin,
whatever X return it might be,
and then, you know, go back into stablecoins or BTC.
I think it needs to be,
the foundation needs to be always like,
I guess, stack SaaS, stack BTC,
and or obviously cash out to IRL,
you know, to bank.
And what unfortunately happens, you see people turn 10K
into whatever, let's say 600K, and then they round trip
everything, and they're depressed.
Yeah, I've actually done it myself last cycle,
and I'm not doing that shit ever again.
The whole roller coaster, I'm not interested.
Yeah, I think everyone makes that mistake at least once, you know, buys into it. I remember
doing that in 2016, 2017. And that was like when blockchain was first having its moment and
blockchain as a service was going to change the world. And it was really ridiculous. Like people
were reading like Benjamin Grahamjamin graham books to to
analyze crypto projects off of just white papers and like websites made from uh like wordpress
and they were seen as legitimate businesses in the making um but yeah i get it like if you have
less capital it completely makes sense and the same thing is in the stock market like
trade single names trade pink sheets and penny stocks instead of trying to buy, you know, Amazon. But then end up,
people end up buying stock, buying options for the leverage rather than buying single names.
Do you have any opinion on like some of these alt ETFs though? You think it'll change the scene for alts? Well, I think two altcoins,
altcoin ETFs that could do well
is Solana and XRP.
Unfortunately, I don't see anything else
doing somewhat okay.
I just think these assets have some mind share.
And also, I'm like a big believer
to make it very quick that, you know,
if you have a BlackRock,
do anyone share,
like a big ETF issuer is filing for your etf that should be nice but when you have that etf issuer called canary um you know
which one i'm referring referencing yes it's like canary is like you know they list they file for etf
every other day you know staked say and a bunch of other coins i don't think you know these makes these make any impact
whatsoever i think that overall like surprise effect is gone with etfs uh maybe solana and xrp
and i think after that it's kind of gg and if i'm not wrong they should be like i guess final
decision should be around october slash november of this So I think after that, it's kind of GG for alt ETF
because Ethereum ETF never had any inflow whatsoever.
And I don't see that unfortunately changing
anytime soon as well.
Yeah, I think if there's one thing
that you could take from the ETF lack of success
and then probably extrapolate that decently across
to Solana is that what the echo chamber here assumes will be popular is probably incorrect.
Things outside of here that are also agreed upon here, or rather even things that are more heavily
interested or rather have captivated
people's interest more outside of here than inside of here tend to do better.
So I would think that XRP actually has a really decent chance of doing well because all,
not to insult people, but like all the normies that I know outside of this market,
and we'll just say like people that are
unsophisticated with the workings of this market or not privy, they're super interested in XRP.
They think it is, you know, they take all of the publications for their word and it's going to
change the financial system. And, you know, if they have some BTC, they also have some XRP.
A lot of them are more heavily skewed XRP. So I think that if you gave those
people a chance to buy the ETF, they would buy it like hand over fist. And I have like my own
anecdotes of like uncles and like people that are just personally that I know that are in their like
60s and 70s that own XRP and they like really fucking believe in it. Excuse me. Whereas Solana,
like really fucking believe in it excuse me um whereas solana it's it's sort of like you could
just use eth as a proxy for the lack of success that crypto twitter thinks is going to be driven
to something because it's their favorite um when the rest of the world is probably more aware of
xrp versus something like solana or something that is again has has um caught fire internally here
Solana or something that is, again, has caught fire internally here.
Hey, I actually have a question for you guys, if you don't mind me, Chamingham.
We just had a pretty interesting comment from a guy saying differences, just talking about
alts versus like trading BTC.
And he said, the difference is you're trying to preserve capital, I assume you guys, and
they, I mean, I don't know who this is, but they, I assume,
are trying to create wealth.
So would you have any advice for, it sounds like you both got into crypto
through altcoins, right?
I mean, of course, you mentioned doing stuff in 2017, 2018.
Werner, you mentioned last cycle.
You tried a bit of that out.
So what would you guys say?
Would you have any advice for someone getting started, let's say, with, I don't know, let's say a 10K to 50K portfolio getting started in 2025?
Who wants to make a million dollars?
Let's say.
Let's say.
I mean, yeah, realistically, you're not going to get multiples in BTC. It's probably going to be
like a core element of your portfolio, but you're not going to, again, you're not going to turn the
small amounts of money into large amounts of money in short amounts of time. The reality is,
yeah, people are going to gravitate to alts because of that. And they're
always going to see the success of people around them that, you know, have stuck around and managed
to do well as a reminder. Again, though, like the numbers are not in your favor to be on that side
of the field, right? After everything is said and done, it's more likely that you lose what you put in. But if I had a $10,000 portfolio, I'd be doing
the same thing. I'd probably be treating altcoins like, again, it's tough to talk about how I would
treat them without removing the knowledge. So I would be treating them like out of the money
options, like buying out of the money calls, like really wingy stuff.
And each one of those alts as more or less being treated like the premium of a naked option where you're just you're assigning zero value to it right away.
You assume that it's going to go out.
You know, you assume that it's going to expire worthless.
But on the off chance of one hits, it hits for, you know, a ridiculous amount compared to what you put up.
And yeah, I mean, you could have some success doing that more than likely.
90 percent of them will like options expire out of the money.
But I would point people in the direction of first just trying to develop an edge to begin with.
And I know that's like a far fetch to tell a bunch of people like they have to develop an edge, which takes years.
But the reality is, I think you're better off starting that way.
But if you're going to play an all, it's just, you know, people have said it time and time again.
It's cliche. Be prepared to lose what you put in and spread it out like a bunch of line items probably is better than just a few.
I don't know if you want to add to that runner.
Yeah, for sure.
I mean, if I had to start over, right now, reality is it's been pretty dead market,
unfortunately, even from perspective of how many projects are raising, how many new layer
ones and layer twos are launching.
It's a bit of a joke, but not really.
It can kind of tell you a lot of information where in the cycle we are which is not saying it's it's all over i'm
just saying it's not doesn't seem to me like a period of time where you should be you know
grinding to the max but if i had the 10k i would just be grinding new ecosystem and trying to learn
trying to land a big airdrop i guess because that can really change your change your net worth and
or like the worst thing you should do with 10K is straight perps.
It's stupid.
No need to, especially like BTC and ETH and SOL
with some sort of risk management.
Just don't do that.
I would just go on chain and play around, fuck around.
I've done my language.
But, you know, if you can land an airdrop,
there has been so many of them over the last few years.
It's been five, six-figure airdrops.
Again, really change your situation.
So see what the next cool thing is.
I don't want to necessarily name drop,
but it's not difficult to see which project raised a lot
at high valuation.
If they have a testnet, if they have a bunch of apps on them,
play around, try to, and hope for the best.
I think that would be my way, because specifically on-chain trenches don't seem to be that much
alive as well.
I guess if, you know, if you need to put in some time somewhere, that would be playing
around with new ecosystems that don't have a token yet.
It's funny you guys mentioned the trenches, actually, because that was going to be my next question.
You know, we just saw like what house coin goes from like zero to 100 mil.
I mean, I'm the Twitter guy at Akram, so I have to post about this fairly often.
And you know, like keep an eye on it.
But my question is to you guys, have you tried any solana trenches stuff
this cycle like have you have you tried that to talk or is it like more of a you know uh you stay
away from that sort of stuff i'm just i'm genuinely pretty curious no i i am like uh chronically late
to things and if i come to something it's i at this point have it as a personal signal that I'm probably arriving with the momentum traders that end up putting tops in things.
I mean, I'm a bit older than probably most people in CT. I've been trading now for almost 20 years.
I started trading single names. I moved to indices, crude oil, came to crypto. And I kind of have my
niche carved out at this point. Every time that I step out of my
area of competence, it's a poor allocation of my time and my capital. So I've played around,
but never to any kind of meaningful extent. And I've noticed that when I do finally come around
to something, it's after everybody already has. It's kind of become like, again, something that I have to, it's like one of my own tells
that I have to remind myself.
But again, I trade things that are in play and that I'm used to trading.
And I would probably say 90% of people in crypto are better off not trading what I trade
at all, right?
And are better off, like Runner said, probably in the trenches.
And trenches trade like penny stocks.
They trade like stocks pre-decimalization.
And there's not a, if you can have an impact, like there's one, there's a great quote.
I forgot who said it.
But if you can make an impact on the market, you're probably trading in the right market.
If you can't, you're probably in a market that's a bit too competitive for you. So find the weakest poker
table and spend all your time there. Unfortunately for me, it doesn't seem like it's the best use of
my time. Yeah, and as for me, actually, meme trading is very similar to news trading.
Like some of the what would be referred to as runners, no pun intended, nothing to do with me, is, you know, about being quickly to the new meta, to the new joke.
So some of the best meme traders are online, like chronically online, which is something I cannot dedicate that much time to. Like I try to obviously,
I mean, all need to, regardless of network, need to put in the time. Like you cannot just
log in once a week and, you know, hope for the best. You need to put in the time. But
yeah, I try to put in the time in different aspects. And I, again, I don't think from all
the metrics, if you will, looking at Solana blockchain, I don't think from all the metrics if you will looking at solana blockchain i don't think it's necessarily a trench season you know obviously there are some outliers but it's not a
december 2024 january 2025 situation where there's happening all the time but still regardless even
though it's not something i i would be doing myself i still think that's you know with
smaller portfolio that should be the bread and butter for people.
Yeah, Vonna, I sort of tend to agree with you, especially given, you know, around conference
season, it's usually like kind of an on-chain talk with, you know, everyone showing each
other stuff in person and all of the, well, let's not say exit liquidity, but the largest players in the on-chain ecosystem
usually buying, getting that conviction from each other.
But I did actually have a question for us specifically, because you mentioned that you
did come from more mature, you've been trading more mature and more liquid markets than BTC
for quite a while now. Is there anything that you think that most people in crypto
might be missing or somebody without that trading background might not catch? I mean,
you mentioned earlier, you've been talking about Michael Say, let's say having 3% of Bitcoin.
Is this something that might put off larger players or larger companies or whoever from
buying Bitcoin? Is that something that's seen as quite negative in the sort of,
let's say, like commodities world? What's your take on that?
I mean, I think that you could probably make a case for either side. If the vehicle is not
completely understood and it's just judged based on the headlines and based on, I guess,
sailors' public-facing persona, I think it is quite off-putting.
The whole idea of Bitcoin originally being owned by sort of faceless people that were not public-facing at all, were anonymous, could move in the shadows.
That was one of the reasons why a lot of people did not want to enter this market in size, right?
And that's, you know, at the bottom of anything or the beginning of anything, there's the most uncertainty.
The higher price goes, the more certainty there is.
And the more likely that asset managers, law-only funds, pension funds are going to get interested in buying.
The more structured products around BTC, the more we have these mature derivative markets around BTC,
the more it probably brings vol down overall.
And then when Bitcoin goes from a 70 vol asset to a 30 vol asset,
then that is probably when it's less exciting to trade for people like myself and Runner.
That is probably when it's less exciting to trade for people like myself and Runner,
but then it's way more interesting for people that don't want to touch an asset that has that kind of vol
and really would only want to get involved if it was cut in half.
But then it's not as exciting.
But I think when you have a singular entity in the market, it is a little bit off-putting.
Again, there's examples of this, but it's usually that it's like we're
talking about Vanguard or we're talking about Buffett. And I don't think at an individual level,
you could say that Buffett and Sailor have a lot in common or are seen in the same regard. So
yeah, I personally think that it's off-putting. I've given the example before of like people talk about the Eggman,
right? It's like the parable of the Eggman. Saylor's kind of like Brian Hunter in natural
gas spreads. At one point, Brian Hunter basically became the market. And there's a great book called
Hedgehogs, and it's about Brian Hunter and John Arnold, both legendary traders.
And at one point, again, traditional market backgrounds
have kind of arrived to using this as an example. So I think that's bad, right? When people
immediately think of that when thinking of Sailor and BTC. There's obviously ways around this. Like
if someone sits down and actually hears what is taking place, then the tune can change.
But I think at face value, it just seems a little bit off-putting.
This guy controls the supply of this market that is already quite obscure and esoteric to people that have no knowledge of crypto to begin with.
And those are the people that we're trying to get involved, right?
The people that are sovereign wealth funds, not people, but the money that really moves the needle, which we're getting there, but not completely there yet.
with Saylo and they're like, okay, these are,
I mean, I know for sure that I've done a bunch of posting
about like, oh, you know, Bitcoin, when it came down,
it's like, you know, 15% away from Saylo's average price
or whatever and everyone's saying,
oh, it's gonna get liquidated.
Obviously that's, you know, not a thing
that he needs to worry about until 2028.
But I guess, you know, in some people like larger,
larger players sort of perspectives,
it actually is quite relevant.
If someone needs to sell a lot of Bitcoin in 2028 or 2029,
that definitely sounds like something that would hinder certain uptake.
I had another question actually about Sailor, this vernon if that if you guys don't mind um and because you've you've probably been tracking sailor well among the most diligently
of anyone i follow on on twitter what what would you say the game plan for this like the guys on
the other side of his atm uh sales is like um you know what's what's the game plan for someone who's
buying mstr because this money seems to come out of you know what's what's the game plan for someone who's buying mstr because
this money seems to come out of you know like basically he has like this infinite money printer
um but obviously you know these guys now have if you're you know institutional capital you have
option to buy uh bitcoin just through ibit or you have you know you can you can buy it through fbtc
why would someone buy
mstr why is there so much demand for this and uh what what do you think like is that is there
something about like this say this relative position like changed like is he in a less
advantageous position now than he was like you know when trump just got elected or what's your
take on that well why would anybody buy MSTR?
It's up 67% in the last 21 days.
It's outperforming BTC by a lot.
So I still see MicroStrategy stock as leveraged BTC bet.
And in some jurisdictions I've seen, I wish I remembered,
but some people saying, hey, it's much easier for me to buy MicroStrategy
as my bet on BTC than IBIT or Bitcoin alone. um I wish I remembered but some people saying hey it's much easier for me to buy micro strategy is
my path on BTC then I bet or Bitcoin alone um so that's that and frankly I don't know but I try not
to understand the angle where you're coming from but again uh micro strategy is up obviously I'm
saying from the peak of bottom but it's up almost 70 percent so I mean you, it's still outperforming BTC.
It's kind of my point.
But I think the buyer is seeing it
as a leveraged long BTC, which, again, I think, not that I know.
And look, I mean, the entire situation is fucking insane,
if you ask me.
But it seems to be working.
I don't want to say for how long or for now,
but MicroStrategy just keeps going higher, right?
So the premium is 2x.
So I really, you know, I think I know,
I understand what you're trying to like get
as an answer from me, but I truly couldn't tell you.
One thing that is surprising.
Oh, sorry.
Just like very last, say like, look from, I just listened to two hours.
I sat down on YouTube and the beautiful sunny day, two hours and 10 minutes strategy Q1
2025 earnings call.
This was my entertainment for past few hours.
When you repeatedly listen to these people, they all seem like genuinely like a part of
a cult.
And I'm not saying this from the angle of like trashing them.
I'm just saying as it is.
And yeah, look, these people believe in BTC
and they keep buying, they keep voting
yes, unlimited printing of micro strategy
stock, unlimited dilution, buy more BTC.
That's what they're doing.
At least I think you have to respect the balls
because they said what they're going to do
and they're doing it.
That's it.
That's it.
Yeah, I think there's actually, there might be something that also adds to that.
IBIT is relatively new, right? And IBIT was one of the first major conduits that TradFi can get to, well, just levels of exposure TradFi
could get to BTC without buying BTC outright or dealing with crypto native exchanges and
rails.
But it is, in terms of its lifecycle, it's still infantile.
And there's a lot of, I think there's probably still a decent amount of write-offs and funds
that haven't gotten write-offs yet to buy IBIT.
And they might only have access to buy MSTR because it's an equity.
So I think there might be something there.
They don't have the mandate yet to be able to buy IBIT, but they can buy MSTR.
So they've used that as more or less a proxy to something
that they think is still a trade that is worth joining on. But I'm not 100% certain. But again,
there's a lot of write-offs that need to take place with ETFs just to be pushed to investment
advisors, RAs, and other types of more traditional asset managers that are, again, not like your kind of absolute
return funds and, you know, family offices and whatnot. So.
Nice. Yeah, that's, that's really interesting. Do you think these people are going to be buying
BTC in the next five years? Let's, let's put my bull cap on and ask who's buying next after Sailor. Is it like, is the game plan that Sailor buys all of the BTC that you can? Have you guys traded MSDR, by the way? Have you guys done that at all or do you just trade btc
um i've traded options on mstr but the the ivy is so high it's so blown out that
it's almost worthwhile just trading btc yeah because it sort of seems to strike me like um
you know how well let's not spread any rumors but i've heard that certain crypto protocols
sell LOX tokens and uh use that to pump the price of their token on the open market
is that like a bit of a trad fight version of what's going on there i mean
is it a realistic question to ask like how does this actually end in like not the next year or so
but do you think this does come under some kind of unwind
is there like a is there an mstr unwind trade in like the next five years or so is that like in
2030 or 2029 something like that so i think that sailor is insane but i think that he ends up on
the right side of history books because i i do think that Bitcoin is multiples higher than where it is here over the next five to 10 years.
So I think he kind of just gets saved by that drift that this young, again, very young asset has.
And I think it's kind of simple.
I don't want to overly simplify it, but gold has had such a head start on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is experiencing a little bit of a divide also from a generational standpoint. And it's
kind of like, I've used this example before, it's kind of like new science versus old science,
like old methods of storing wealth versus new methods. From a physics standpoint, BTC is absolutely superior to anything else in storing wealth
from a physics standpoint.
You could carry any amount of BTC in the same amount of space.
You can't do the same with gold.
But there are a host of people above a certain age group that do not believe in BTC at all.
And like science, you have to go to funerals before science can progress. So I think that over the next 10 to 20 years, when we've kind of moved out a significant
bracket of the population that really are interested in gold and those decisions are made by
their millennial children, that you see more of a passive bid in BTC than we have now. So I think
we're still so early and there's no asset class that you could say you are this close to the beginning than BTC.
So I'm definitely a BTC maxi, not crazy enough to not sell.
But I think he ends up getting saved by other forces and he's a big part of the market.
But there are players in markets that are very big and have uncomfortable levels of positioning.
As long as he's not at risk of liquidation,
I think that this thing ends up looking crazy in hindsight,
but he's okay.
I think he's fine for now.
I just don't find it very productive
to be looking out so many years ahead. So for now, I think he's fine for now. I just don't find it very productive to be looking out so many years ahead.
So for now, I think he's good.
Yeah, you have to have kids before you start thinking a couple years ahead.
Real.
So what happens in the next year?
Can you guys give me some financial advice
oh man i can't i i i don't like to make any predictions outside of the week like most of
my trading is between one minute and one week but i i do uh i do try to hold on to some beliefs
on longer time frames because again um a lot of my a lot of my positioning has changed since becoming a parent, as silly as it's cliche as that sounds.
I think, I don't know, I think people will be people in this market.
I think we'll continue to have pockets of outperformance in alts.
I think that I'll always be late to them.
I do have to hop off soon, so I apologize if I cut out.
I do have to hop off soon, so I apologize if I cut out.
But yeah, I think we probably have a dull summer and then a good end of year Q4.
I think 2026 looks much better.
But this is a guess.
It's a coin flip.
Why is the buy-in, sorry, the sell- selling, selling, selling, make thing and go away.
So yeah, we'll say we've been going 45 minutes.
If you want to hop off anytime, just, uh, just feel free to, free to jump off.
I'm, uh, I'm sort of good to do whatever for however long you guys want to stay on
for, but, um, why, why is the selling may thing and go away?
Like, is that, is that just because people go on holidays?
Is that the idea?
I mean, I think it's probably a combination of things. I think that's one of them.
I mean, markets aren't like, it's not like the difference is egregious where it goes from a
market that has anything worth trading to nothing. I mean, last summer, it was a great trading range.
I mean, last summer it was a great trading range, but liquidity is slightly different.
Volumes are slightly lower.
There is something to be said with possibly these periods occurring around significant
OPEXs, so month of May OPEX, quarterly OPEX.
So there is a little bit of a look back bias.
But yeah, from a behavioral standpoint,
I know how I behave over the summer.
I don't want to be sitting at my desk, which already creates a ton of heat.
I want to be outside.
Most people, the joke is, you know, where I am, I live on Long Island and most people
flee from the city, the big financial area to the Hamptons, and they want to spend time
on their boats and not in front of their desk.
So I think it's probably something that has been ingrained in us from hundreds of years ago from an activity standpoint. People want to have a little bit more leisure and maybe markets again
are just an area where that's reflected. So I think it doesn't mean there's no trading
opportunities. I always just come back after labor day with a little bit more
uh conviction that's it yeah because i i feel like um definitely like in the in the sort of
like in the larger like majors i can remember a few times over the past uh let's say a few years
there have been fairly traumatic events occurring in may but um yeah i
don't know the summer sort of feels like uh sometimes for on-chain stuff stuff comes back
a little bit you know like you had the 2021 nft boom you had the 2023 on-chain season that was
pretty fun um yeah i don't know uh are you guys planning to stick around it's all like i mean i
don't know runner are you planning to stick around around until this summer or are you just also taking a bit of a break?
I mean, I think it's so much easier to say, oh, I'm going to take a few months off. Even if I travel, I still am on my phone, you know, with my laptop.
I think for me, how that everything,
what we just discussed in the last few minutes is like,
I don't have high expectations.
And on the contrary, December and January,
I log the fuck in.
And if I'm not printing money or like losing fuck ton of money,
just like there's no action.
I'm very confused.
You know what I mean?
So I look at it this way.
I don't have, I have close to zero expectations for June, July, August.
And if there's anything worthwhile
i'll be very much pleased i hope that i hope that answers your point no that's that's a that's that's
a good good point you should you can join us for solana summer three on uh 2025 summer i'm convinced
guys i have to hop off right now.
I appreciate everyone's time though.
And it was good to get on here with you guys.
But my little one calls for me right now.
Oh yeah.
Thanks so much for joining us.
See you next week.
Enjoy your weekend.
You too, man.
If you have time, I'm really interested.
Do you mind telling me about what you did in 2021 that uh that made you sweat off alts forever what what's the story behind that
um i mean i can quickly talk about may 2021 uh and also unfortunately have to hop in like five but um I mean May 21 and one when it 21 happened
uh I do believe there was a few things China banning Bitcoin mining if maybe some people in
the audience remember that right now we have Tadif so you Trump's mentions there is markets
new but back in the day we had China banning BTC mining we had also Elon Musk mentioning something negative with BTC and altcoins had like
a minus 70 percent weekly candle basically almost all of them or like a couple weeks
so I guess I mean it's obviously a shitty excuse if you will but it's nothing more than uh
self self-inflicted trauma if you will but yeah I mean we we in and the thing is particularly bad
in May 2021 oh yeah like a traumatic trade or something I mean yeah it's it's been very eye
opening for me personally but look, it's essentially the reality is
I know a bunch of people
who've been in crypto for now,
10 plus years.
You know, all, every single case,
like every single person
I'm mentioning here
has always had a strategy around BTC.
And again, if you even look,
forget altcoin Bitcoin pairs,
which is my big thing.
If you just look at any altcoin
compared to USD,
show me one thing that survived
for such a long period of time and did well.
Sure, you can make a, I mean, over multiple cycles,
of course, people will be like, oh, look at Fartcoin.
Yes, but Fartcoin is what, seven months old?
And basically my mantra is on long enough timeframe,
every single altcoin trends to zero.
It's just like a detour from its way to zero.
So for me, my kind of take towards altcoins,
a big part of it was May 2021.
And also just the recent launches,
I think been very predatory.
You have a project launching at $5 dollars FDV 12% float it's just what are we doing here yeah no I agree with you there um I have maybe
like I'll let sorry I'll let you get off soon but um I have one last question um in your opinion farth point does it hit 10 billion or zero first which one we have come on
man no clue no clue um i i don't find this very that's a great content for twitter tweets but
i could not i don't know uh could you put a 70 30 for a 40 60 on it
Okay, 1730 with a 4060 on it.
If you had to guess, if you had to, if you had $1,000 on Polymarket
and your only way of making money was betting on the Farcoin 10 below zero market.
I would make a different trade.
Go back to it.
Sorry, sorry, sorry to be...
Go on purpose.
No clue.
That's fair.
Also, also got a bounce.
Okay, awesome.
Well, thank you so much for joining us.
It's been a great, great spaces.
Really appreciate you coming on.
Have a good weekend.
Have a good weekend, sir.
See you around.
All right.
So he's popped off.
All right.
Thank you guys for tuning in so it's been
a long almost an hour now um so thank you for joining us um so it was pretty pretty fun pretty
fun doing this so uh i'll let you all get off have lunch do whatever um and enjoy your day enjoy your
day have a good one guys Bye guys.
