Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. What's going on, guys? a give me a sound check crystal clear
that's amazing because my wife washed my airpods and i was certain that it was like the third pair
that i had bought recently after my toddler had done away with the others well they'll be destroyed
good news good news the fourth part there will be with 125% tariff.
So thanks for joining us, guys.
On behalf of Arkham, myself, Runner, there's a lot to talk about.
It's the same thing right uh it just seems like it's
it's intensifying over the last um over the last week it seemed like there was some brief respite
uh with trump possibly walking back you know some of the uh the tariff insanity and sort of doubling down on China.
To be not so specific, but more or less what happened,
we saw bond market stress, the 30,
hitting over five, the 10-year back up.
So the whole idea around all of this more or less being an effort to bring yields down
obviously fell flat on its face
and as a result this is our main focus because it is spilling over into every single market at first
it spilled over basically in every market even gold uh which should do well but you know when
there's times of stress and margin needs to be freed up you sell all your positions or you know
you sell a lot of positions you don't necessarily want to sell to free up margin to protect ones that you,
you know, want to firm up. You know, you got to protect those long NVIDIA positions, right,
for the AI revolution. So needless to say, crypto has, you know, it's getting affected. It's not,
you know, the top of the hour in terms of conversation. It seems to be most of the conversation, even by crypto Twitter, is the bond market, the swap market, what's happening with equities, what's happening with tariffs.
And it feels like we're kind of waiting for something bad to happen for, you know, the Fed to step in with emergency measures and do something.
I don't know where this ends.
I don't want to take too long in the beginning.
We've got a couple of things we can talk about.
Sailor's underwater right now, or he's within, I think, 10% of what is his average price.
Got some new listings this week by Arkham.
So a couple of new listings that are worth checking out on the exchange.
Something funny, Trump said, you know, time to buy.
And the NASDAQ ripped historical levels.
BTC actually underperformed.
But then we had a limit down day or almost a limit down day yesterday in the NASDAQ.
It actually bounced off the level.
As long as it stays above the level for two minutes uh they move the limit down to 13 percent um i personally i think
flat or short is a good position i i think risk is going to continue to get hammered uh but i'll
pass it off to you runner yeah it's been um interesting week pardon my language but uh you
know thread if i traded like shit coins on solana
um which is funny started off with the i believe it was on monday so i guess if we could consider
the this week's uh recap but that was the you know the whole situation with walter bloomberg
basically tweeting that there's gonna be a 90 90 day delay. Markets rallied, right? $2.5 trillion in market cap added.
And basically White House within a few minutes was like,
hey, this is fake news, not happening.
But then on Wednesday, obviously it happened,
I'm basically, I think everybody at this point admits
and can kind of agree that, you know,
the market is going to be kind of shitty
for a while but i'm trying to figure out what would be the catalyst that you know what is the
one single event to look um look look out for you know is that a us china call you know potential
headlines um i've seen a lot of chatter around rate cuts and again i'm really not necessarily
to make this macro talk, but I just personally
even reasonable to discuss
still, that being said, the next
Fed meeting is early May, which
weeks away from now. And I'm trying
to figure out how do I entertain
myself in the meantime, because it's been very, very boring,
unless you're scalping fart corn, which is not something
Yeah, I think everyone's kind of waiting
I think that's kind of like, you know,
there's been the understanding that markets have, you know, we have the Fed put, there is some kind of intervention that's always going to step in.
You know, we people start talking about that 10 percent off the highs.
And now we've sort of hit that special bear market level, 20 percent off the highs.
You know, the S&P right now is 13.
the S&P right now is 13, but I think the peak drawdown was 21%.
But I think the peak drawdown was 21 percent.
One thing that I think is, I should probably clarify is,
sort of is probably a bad position.
I mean, even in bear markets, bears don't make money.
There's like a popular saying that, you know, bears don't make money in bear markets.
You have these like really, really sharp rallies that get everyone extremely excited again.
The market's looking for that at this point.
It was overly hedged going into OPEX coming up.
If we're able to trade and stay above where most of those hedges accumulated,
you'll have some flows come back into the market that should add a little bit of lift,
some more mechanical systematic flows.
But it's hard to believe that any kind of rally doesn't result in just another sharp
I mean, we've lost all major moving averages in the S&P, and I think those tend to have
There's also something to be said for now with long end rates being where
they're at, yields in general being where they're at, and just general levels of market stress
for managers not being able to operate with the same amount of leverage as we came off of
in February and January while the trend was still intact. So it's really unlikely that we're going to,
anytime in the near future, at least in these conditions,
without a major sea change,
have the kind of capital required to get this thing going again
and to just act like nothing ever happened.
There were a couple of people that were early to point it out,
but this kind of policy shift is unprecedented.
I started trading around the global financial crisis.
I traded obviously during COVID.
That was a completely exogenous shock to markets.
This is like by his hand, right?
This is a dick measuring contest, excuse me, between global leaders.
And it's hard to imagine that we kind of resume, you know, go back to, you know, sunny days in the market and easy, easy trends to enter.
And it just feels like we're probably due for a long period of this uncertainty and back and forth.
And, you know, rate cuts, I don't even think would matter at this point.
Like everyone's talking about inevitable possible rate cut, you know, the price that like 30, 40% for May,
like 25 basis points, isn't going to do anything now. You know, they're going to have to,
I think you're going to have to do a lot more than that if this were to continue.
And, you know, I think that Trump and Basin probably have to start feeling a little bit
uneasy because after coming out and trying to walk things back and clarify you know oh we're gonna give people these countries 90 days and we're gonna you know
i don't like china basically is what he said i don't like china to some extent you know so i'm
gonna punish them um markets are ended up selling off again and yields started rising again so
i i'm kind of at a loss for uh thinking thinking I can't really give much opinions outside of a weekly
timeframe. It feels like, you know, it's, it feels like this is the epitome of a time where
you have to have, you know, strong opinions loosely held. Um, I don't know how sailor's
feeling right now. I mean, he's, he probably doesn't from historically we've, we've lost his
number before, right? We've've we've done away with his
average apparently the guy is just a madman has no intention of uh letting up and i don't know
if that necessarily matters but the lower we go the more we put other large entities under pressure
the more margin calls you're going to see uh the more var shock relationship you're going to see
and i don't know i'm a little bit i'm sketched out I'm sketched out to put it to put it lightly it's interesting that the European me out of us two seems to be the one
more call but no fully agree I mean what do you think could be something that would matter you
said 25 basis points nothing burger I agree with you because why i think why it's relevant to even discuss this why
the contextually like bitcoin has been trading like leverage nasdaq basically if you don't
believe me you can check it out yourself it's like correlation is very strong so if you know
people are fleeing u.s markets dollar dumps and like basically and equities are down only
bitcoin is eventually going to go down too it's like unfortunately and altcoins is a just dead times two basically with exception a few meme coins like fartcoin
which we can maybe close on the spaces with like in like 15 minutes but it's just been unfortunate
um i do think still like for some people who just cannot be bothered you know basically my few few last
weeks been basically stuck to the news feed you know just non-stop checking out for uh tariff
headlines and just been buying bitcoin and longing intraday btc when we had these headlines such as
worst day nasdaq since second world war quite or something along those lines literally happened you
know like worst day since covet crash blah blah blah usually buy btc on that and then you know we have a trump tweeting
it's a great time to buy then they do the 90-day pause very questionable um move by itself but you
know i think that was a great exit there's definitely still counter trend counter trades
in in the downtrend uh which I've been taking.
But it's been, unfortunately, pretty boring,
unless somebody wants to go super deep into...
Like, you know, what would you recommend somebody who has...
You know, you've been trading for almost two decades now.
As for me, I studied some econ at school, but it isn't much.
What would be the recommendation for somebody who never really studied any econ, just trades shitscorn?
Is it worth picking up a macroeconomics book and try to figure something out?
Or just enjoy summer, which I think is the best advice I could give to somebody.
I personally think you don't try to learn this stuff now i mean macro is like probably the most compelling game that people the trap people fall into where
especially for older traders it's kind of like you know they want to play the everything game
but there's the most moving parts and trying to synthesize that to me that's why i always just
stop to shorter term trading and not for nothing a lot of To me, that's why I always just stop to shorter-term trading.
And not for nothing, a lot of the things that I'm talking about with the uncertainty,
it's more around this kind of existential dread for the United States that I have because of what we're seeing and because we're fresh into a term.
Hopefully around midterms, this is abated,
and we've seen some kind of reason come back into the
White House and policymakers.
It's just, if you're going to say the trend is your friend, it feels like wishing for
that is a little bit of, you know, futile.
From a trading standpoint, like intraday, like you said, there's a lot of meat on the
I mean, this reminds me of when I first started trading and it was basically just a news feed,
a squawk, you know, level two, the tape.
And there's a ton of news related trades because the market is jumping on headlines left and right, left and right, up and down.
So, yeah, if you're dialed in intraday, I mean, yesterday I shared this.
Yesterday, it was a great long opportunity.
It was a great long opportunity.
I think this was at like the other side of,
this was like halfway down through,
a five or something like that.
So there's great long opportunity that still exists.
It's just extending from like the first,
like people like to rag on this idea of level to level.
You can't really buy something and then walk away from it
and have a whole lot of certainty with how things are going to pan out beyond the next sticky point.
I'm fine with that. I would suggest most people should just, if they're not intraday trading,
take this as, I don't know, a sign that it's time to maybe take some time off and, and I want to say sit in cash. Um, but it's, it's tough. I
mean, this is the trader's market. I think that will continue. Uh, so there's really no complaints
with regard to that. If you're in the United States, it feels like this is, we're like over
a little bit over the precipice at this point, but I could be, you know, buying into sort of
the emotion, like a lot of other people right now. And it's really tough to tell.
I see the dollar dropping.
I see risk getting hammered.
And this is all before any tariffs are.
If the point of this is that tariffs will be put in place to the extent that he's said,
there's really no future where this is like the best dip to buy
for equities, which I think would ultimately spill over into BTC as well, because it is like a tech
stock. So if you're a trader, this is great, right? You know, play from one sticky point to the next,
you know, don't, don't leave things on with the expectations. You're going to get those kind of
runner moves. I mean, to be specific, I would uh i would probably just be happy with any portion of what an average day's range is over a
weekly period like i think for btc that's like four thousand dollars now three thousand dollars
now if you could capture 500 1 000 point moves that's good you could add those up you know and
be a brick layer um rather than swing for the fences. Um, how this changes though, is I don't, I mean, there are people that have varying
opinions as to whether or not like Trump is playing like 16 degree chess or whatever, and
that this is all going to have a positive outcome. I feel like they've kind of dug themselves into a
hole and, and, uh, they're, they're kind of flying by to the seat of their pants right now and trying
to figure it out as they go along, like trying to build the airplane while they're kind of flying by to the seat of their pants right now and trying to figure it out as they go along,
like trying to build the airplane while they're in midair.
So I don't know, not a lot of confidence in equities,
which I think tends over to crypto.
But if you're trading intraday,
it's not really going to mean that much, as you said.
Do you see, I've heard like a lot of, you know,
you even said it yourself dollars
download bunch and I'm gonna make it about crypto I promise uh but I I looked at Bitcoin USD and then
you look at Bitcoin Bitcoin euro I apologize for for the cringe but it's actually like the chart
looks very different obviously given euro is um outperforming hard my point here is do you see
I've seen this on Timeline, right?
but like basically long Bitcoin
because, you know, global trade is,
this is what Bitcoin is meant for.
This is, do you buy any of that or not really?
I assume I know the answer,
but curious to hear your thoughts.
Like basically exit USD, buy BTC.
No, I would, in mass, like larger and completely.
No, I think obviously that's a poor idea.
I think you have to have, you know, the way I talk sounds like someone who has no BTC exposure.
I have some BTC spot exposure.
I've rarely had a time where I've had no position or no exposure to BTC.
Most of my trading is relegated to, you know, perpetrating and not even considering that.
But I think you have to have some BTC because it is sort of a call option on everything
going wrong and not to use that overused phrase.
But I don't think, you know, I don't think Bitcoin is like, it's going to, we're going
to see like any kind of major shift with people adopting Bitcoin.
I think that probably takes place over longer periods of time.
That's like a slower moving phenomenon than I think a lot of people anticipate.
I think it's going to continue to do well over a decade long period, but a lot could go wrong in a six month period.
And as far as we know, it's traded more like tech over the last
few months, over the last year. So I think you have to add more, just assign more weight to that.
More recent evidence than the more wishful evidence that it ends up trading more like gold.
And we see sort of a flight to BTC. So yeah, not, I think it's, you know, I think it ends up feeling the
same gravity as tech and equities do if these conditions are to persist. I don't know how long
this can go on for. I mean, if, if the 30 year, if the 10 year goes, continues to race upward,
we're kind of screwed. You don't have to be like a macro pundit or an economics expert to understand that.
And I doubt they would let that happen though.
So who knows what intervention looks like.
It probably doesn't look like QE in the way that everyone last remembers it, which is
like literally direct injections of capital into your Citibank account because, you know,
the economy is falling apart due to COVID and and yet nothing else to do besides buy
you know all coins on the internet because you're stuck in your house i think it's more like they
support the bond market but i don't know i'm i'm like i said i'm this is a hot this is a period
of uncertainty right for me and uh i'm just taking it day by day. Like the best looking chart I can find is gold, which is just sad.
Something I have zero exposure to, nor do I recommend getting it in here.
But it's just, you know, gold weekly looks like what altcoin holders want their altcoins
And yeah, don't tell me the best move is to chill until they start
trying to save face until midterms, which would be
midterms are in November 2026, right?
So that would be a good year ahead,
meaning November of this year, which is still, what,
seven months away, six months away?
Yeah, I mean, listen, sometimes it's useful to try to yeah i don't
abide by the like the idea that everything is in the tape and the only thing you should really
focus on is price action but if we existed in a vacuum right now this to me looks like an area
where i would probably floor it a little bit more, right?
From contextually, from a risk reward standpoint, having this kind of just technicals, right?
Three drive down on the higher timeframe, stocks 20% off the highs, a lot of things
crushed, sentiment absolutely in the gutter.
Like the story right now is everyone has the same topic of conversation right now, right?
There's very little deviation from complete negativity across the timeline. And we're tapping last summer's
multi-quarter eyes roughly, right? Around 73, 75. So contextually, this is an area where I'd say,
you got to have some exposure here. Just wondering if the other shoe drops, right? And we're looking
that's going to end up much lower.
And then I think that would have drag on BTC.
But I don't, like I go back and forth.
You know, I'm thinking, are we getting,
I'm looking at some of the chats I'm in.
I'm looking at different communities
and look at the Twitter timeline.
It's kind of unanimous that things are totally,
And I wonder if that's the sign
right i don't know i'd rather have price do more work i'd rather be late i'd rather have
the s&p be back above some more significant moving averages um i'd rather sit this one out a little
bit and just focus on you know 24-hour periods and not holding any overnight risk i could see
why someone would want to have some btc here, though, to pick some up. It seems reasonable. I don't know how this would happen,
right? Because we saw a hint of it. Markets are sensitive to the upside right now on any positive
news. People hedge late, so it creates these sort of really violent responses off the lows when
anything develops positively. If something was to shift, markets are going to rip, right?
But how do things shift in a way where the administration, the United States administration
can kind of save face and not look like absolute morons, right?
To put on all this show and to basically bluff and balk after coming this far.
I mean, markets are full of these periods where it's like once-in-a-lifetime things happen quite often.
And everyone's experiencing this at the same time.
It's a one-off event, it feels like, of course,
like many others, but I don't think it resolves very quickly.
As for me, I fully agree, boring Bitcoin,
freshly minted, not freshly minted,
it's been a few years now, but Bitcoin maxi, if you will.
Just, you know, if we have another catastrophic session
in TreadFi, just keep buying Bitcoin. It's spot, obviously.
I think I'm basically doing reverse Sailor in regards that I try to buy low, not high like him, unlike him.
But I'm just going to continue quite literally DCAing into Bitcoin from today to, you know, as low as we can get it.
I don't think Sailor is in any way shape or form in any like his average
price means nothing um people thinking if we see below or sailor's average that i think that's just
stupid take so i'm gonna just dca bitcoin i it's unfortunately not very fancy you know nothing to
say with oh there's this indicator or there's this uh credit spread no i'm just you know i see red
big red candles scary looking i buy some spot And then what I like about Bitcoin is you can own a lot of venues, you
can use it as trading collateral for perps. So say for very easy example, you buy one
BTC, you know, you can use it at, let's say 90 to 95% collateralization on a lot of venues
So it's not just like a stupid store of value, if you will.
A lot of people are going to get the chat killed off of negative convexity.
Everyone's going to go margin their fart coin in BTC and then BTC is going to have a 10%
I mean, I do spot BTC to trade.
It's effective like coin M M which is has been banned
in Europe which is fucking yeah that sucks yeah they it's it but you can as again there's a work
around right trade one BTC position while holding one BTC spot and that's effectively the same thing
yeah no it is during good times Trading coin margin is obviously preferable.
I mean, for I think there's a lot of not to get very specific with tax obligations,
but if you hold spot BTC and you know, you can short without wanting to sell,
you can just go coin and short.
But yeah, maybe for a different discussion.
Maybe we open up the floor for some questions, But the strongest performer has been Hyperliquid,
Yeah, I think those are moving for obviously two
entirely different reasons.
People really strongly believe in Hyperliquid as like,
or Hype as tokenized equity and something that's
But no one's listing Hype. It's like their direct competition. It's hard to something that's going to be huge. But no one's listing hype.
It's like their direct competition.
It's hard to imagine they're going to get listed by competitors.
I mean, it's really for me.
We're going to have a weekend, so hopefully we don't have a minus
I do with my cringy runner,
and you're being very sports-driven as well.
Like, I think it's really important to catch up on some sleep
because it's been a shit show
So this is going to be my goal
try to get eight hours of sleep
White House brings us on Monday.
And or Beijing, to be fair.
Yeah, if there's a potential for one week to be somewhat calm from headlines it's the masters weekend right now so
yes trump more recently put up a post about the masters you have to hope that the guy just like
keeps his mouth shut and only talks about golfing if he opens it um otherwise like like weekends, you can't really settle into weekends
the same as you could previously
because he doesn't take off.
He loves his truth social outlet.
Yeah, I wish we could just, you know,
if we could just have Besant Lutnik
and Trump shut up for a week,
that would be a beautiful week.
Does anyone have any questions or want to hop on?
We're running towards the end, but I know
the macro stuff's really boring.
But so is the price section.
I'll tell you, just to add some context and a level, I think this starts to look really good.
And then things kind of start to really add up as maybe peak emotional climax level.
Because again, it's pretty unanimous across the board.
Everyone thinks the situation is dire.
If BTC is able to start turning this monthly green, I think there's something to be
said for those higher timeframe shifts. At least on the lower timeframes, you get like a little
flurry of algo activity when you get a turnover of a weekly or a monthly candle, especially in
this context, considering we have this three drive down and things look like they're really bleak.
So if we're able to trade above that, which is, I think it's relatively close.
I mean, I think the monthly open
is probably just a few points higher,
something like 82.6 or something like that.
The market might get excited.
We're able to take back a level.
I think the mistake is to think that there won't be decent opportunities to hold trades for more than just a couple of days.
So I wouldn't be surprised if even if things are bad and continued that I'd be really surprised if Bitcoin didn't retest the underside of the range earlier in the year.
up you know not the initial throwback but like 92 93 on a more sustained move and you know stocks
maybe did relatively the same thing moved back to the 200 100 all the way up to 58 59 get people
really excited um so i think there's a meat on the bone there and i think there's a couple levels
that are worth defining uh where it's like okay i have to be in the market to some extent a little
bit more if we're able to retake this level in the face of all this uncertainty
Corazon, feel free to go.
You're given speaker thingy.
So we have a guest or whatever is the word.
What's the part? Hi, do you guys hear me?
I just wanted to know because the situation is obviously really bad right now.
But what do you guys think would take for the situation to come back a little bit?
What would it take to happen for the market to reverse in some sort in the next weeks?
I think you've seen already a sign that the market wants to be long.
In general, markets want to be long.
Markets are built to go up.
The indices are survivorship indexes to some extent.
People want to be long markets, and they want the confidence to be long.
So any kind of removal of doubt or uncertainty, whatever language accomplishes that, I think you're going to see a significant response.
It'll be sustained if you could have
some kind of material change that does lead to yields coming down. Because again, if yields
continue up, that starts really messing around with the actual financial plumbing. And we've
seen this dumping of treasuries and flight to gold. So it's not necessarily changes in the weather we're watching right now.
It's possible changes in the climate.
So, I mean, you'd have to have
a material change to all of that
to get the market really confident again.
I think that there's always a,
there's, you usually see the market
start to turn before these things
for one reason or the next
versus like having that happen
Or those two points being real or the exactly the same. So, you know,
if you start to see a shift in the price action relative to all the,
you know, negative developments that takes place first,
that could be a sign to get long too. You know,
if you have persistent negative headlines,
but yields are coming down and the tariff talk hasn't abated and then the markets are recovering,
well, I think that's a good indication itself. There's nothing that's really there yet. So I think we're still very early in this. But those are the things I would look for, like an explicit
response from policymakers that leads to actual, you know,
shifts in price action. And we don't see yields continue up shortly after, like we did the other
day, where Trump said something positive, market responded really positively, but it was like
an extremely liquid move. If you look at, like, I look at the ES and the NQ and the crude oil dom
every single day, and there's like one contract on the offer and on the bid on the ES, which should
be one of the most liquid traded assets in the world.
I mean, it's the E-Mini Futures contract.
20 levels down, it had like 70 million notional.
It should normally have hundreds of millions right around price.
I mean, it had 250,000 notional on the best bid and best offer for most of the early session, like flicking in and out with the 50 cent spread.
These are thin conditions.
and we see liquidity come back to markets,
like keeping my helmet on.
For me, it's much, much easier.
I would like to see headline i think it's
going to be a news trade um contrary to what horse said uh i think it's going to be headline trump
or chinese uh side of things are going to be like hey we made a deal fuck the tariffs you know
lowering it or completely cutting it sounds like you know it's um i'm not saying that's what's
going to happen but i think that is your your bottom, bottom China and US making deal.
Like stop trying to, as Ryan called it, dick measuring competition.
I think that is your bottom and risk on a signal.
Does it come next Monday?
Because so far I've seen in last seven days from 50% tariffs to 85 to 124.
Like, you know, it's just every single day seems like a
top up. So what causes that conversation to happen is it's, you know, I don't know what
that would be. I don't want to see Trump tweeting, hey, great time to buy, fuck off with that.
Sorry for my language, I got too carried away. But yeah, headlines such as, hey, we made a deal,
ditch the tariffs. I think that is your easiest
bottom but again you have to sit in front of your computer non-stop um is that something you want to
do with uh you know when somewhere around the corner i don't know but yeah i completely agree
um it's uh it's not feasible to uh to do that overnight like Like crypto trades 24-7, you can't be on your computer screen 24-7.
But there are some positive news in the market, it would seem.
For example, I mean, let's just forget tariffs,
because I think today the Chinese announced that they don't care what
happens next if there's further escalation, because they increased tariffs again today.
And at this point, they just said none of the goods produced in America would be commercially
viable for imports to China anyways.
So they're like, yeah, we'll stop here, whatever happens.
But there are some rumors that China and Russia
are starting to do trades using Bitcoin.
So do you guys think that would be a major positive catalyst for market
Yeah, I agree. positive catalyst for market if it develops further no personally yeah i agree yeah we've seen like these small you know anecdotal reports of btc you know being used for this and that
and facilitating oil trades and we've seen that for so long it doesn't move the needle
okay okay fair enough um thank you that's it for me
yeah i think we're gonna wrap it up to stick to the routine and not get everybody bored
yeah good stuff thanks for joining everyone i think runner had a great point it's
kind of um i don't know if i was unclear about that i i think that you need an
explicit language shift um the market getting confident on that and ripping off it would be
great you know for a possible bottom just not sure when that comes or if we're near that but uh
i would just say survive to keep it corny i would say survive until then um shore up capital
I don't know if you have any closing thoughts, Ron.
Hopefully we don't have to have the same exact conversations next week.
Enjoy your weekend. I mean, yeah.
I mean, there's more to life than the price action,
says the guy who's sitting in front of the computer all day every day.
But it's just not a time to be a hero. It's not what people want to say, section, says the guy who's sitting in front of computer all day every day. But I do.
It's just not a time to be a hero.
It's not what people want to say here, but yep.
Wishing everybody a good weekend and hopefully
Until next time, thank you on behalf of Arkham.
Thanks for hosting. See, until next time. Thank you on behalf of Arkham. Thanks for hosting.
See you guys next week. Thank you.