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TRADING WEEKLY RECAP WITH HORSE & RUNNERXBT
Recorded: May 20, 2025 Duration: 0:39:51Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored pivotal market trends, including a significant $5 billion FTX Stimmy on the horizon, JP Morgan's evolving stance on Bitcoin, and the implications of the Stablecoin Genius Act. With BTC at a critical price level and institutional interest surging, the conversation highlighted the potential for growth and innovation in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Hello, hello, Ryan.
We'll be five minutes.
I think course is coming on another five minutes.
So let's give it five. And do you want to try testing your mic out? will be five minutes i think course is coming on another five minutes so
let's give it five and uh do you want to try testing your mic out Thank you. you hey guys we're just gonna stop start in few minutes just fyi
awesome yeah pause should come on in about three minutes so you guys will give me a thumbs up or
an emoji people like give it give us a thumbs up if you can all if you can hear us okay Awesome. Thank you. Thank you. okay all right hello guys welcome to spaces i uh horse is here he's here just invited you to speak so um hopefully if spaces doesn't work again give it a bit
it'll come up okay awesome um okay we got a big market update for you guys this week um i'll let
you i'll let you two take it away horse do you want to try and test out your mic see if we uh
we can get you through here yeah yeah is yeah. Is my Apple product working properly?
Awesome.
Yeah, that's great.
All right, I'll let you guys take it away.
Thanks a lot.
Cool.
All right.
Yeah, so thanks for everyone for joining.
Myself and Runner, I know we enjoy
shooting the breeze and talking about
this incredible price action in BTC.
So yeah, I guess we'll just get right into it.
The market is at the most important level that it could possibly be at.
And flows are, as you would expect, right at the end zone.
The level is like an all-time high is a switch, not a dial.
So it's super binary.
Like it's one of the most positive EV trades that you could take across pretty much any market.
So it looks like we're going through this period where there are people that are de-risking at the first sign of trouble.
There are people that are positioning preemptively for the break and then getting ran over.
So flows around the highs are pretty muddy.
But over the last couple of weeks, what has remained consistent and has led to this sort of positive drift overall is that there is a persistent spot bid. And it looks like it's probably some new larger players
that are not maybe necessarily the same as Sailor,
but are finally getting off of zero
and picking up a position in BTC.
And these are hopefully players with longer time horizons
who are not sensitive to smaller movements and so forth.
But the S&P is up. S&P is right under 6,000. And I think a lot of the flows that we're seeing in
Ibit are, as we said last week, they're purely directional. So it's like just delta one bet
and not necessarily, you know, the basis trade, we don't see the same corresponding behavior in
the CME products to reflect that. So yeah, I mean, we're just kind of like waiting right now. My view has
been that the summer is not a period where the market's going to be trending, but you know,
a couple points higher and we could be looking at a completely different situation. I'll wrap it up
in a sec, but I don't think like alts here are the best risk reward because I think there's going to be a lot of alts that suffer regardless of what direction BTC takes because it's either liquidity vacuum to the upside or at any slight correction beyond what we've had.
Alts have, you know, have given back a ton of ground when BTC sneezes.
So if we did have a larger pullback and even something you know uh marginal to like 100k
um i think alts would be in a pretty troubling spot so i'm just waiting for btc uh this has like
become a very not a very interesting area for me um to be honest but i'll pass it over to runner
yeah i cannot believe that you're the one shitting on altcoins, not me. But no, I do agree.
It is quite interesting, as you said, with the amount of basically Bitcoin buying.
I think a lot of people just basically every time you had like a massive buyer, everybody would be just sailor.
However, we've seen a lot of different, even countries buying or sorry like institutions from different
countries uh what i would like to like give shout out to i guess it's japan's uh the meta planet
company i believe is the name they've been consistently buying nine figures worth btc as well
which is not nothing we've obviously had weeks where sailor would buy i'm gonna say only in
in quotation marks but you know like 180 million dollars worth so you
know having a different different entity keeping up with sailor and ETFs I mean look at the end of
the day I think it's pretty quick maths um on it on everything sailor is buying billions of dollars
ETFs had some of the best days actually recently again right so if you do the maths how much net net buying there is each week for btc i think that very easily explains the price section isn't
really that complicated uh we do know uh what we do know about sailor compared to the other entities
how much money he has left and we also understand the mechanics right the dynamics how they operate
so i think it's it might repeat it.
Not sure if I mentioned it last few streams,
sorry, or spaces.
But I think it's very important for people to really know,
like, it's honestly as simple as if MicroStrategy
NAV premium is high, which is public information,
let's say 1.86, that is the level right now.
He's just going to continue printing unlimited amount let's say 1.86, that is the level right now.
He's just going to continue printing unlimited amount of MicroStrategy stock,
sell the stock, use the money to buy Bitcoin.
It's that simple.
That's what is called ATM proceeds.
They have $19 billion left from the 4242 plan,
which just six months ago used to be 21 21 plan which was supposed to be a three-year plan so they basically speed run completely through the three-year plan in six
months doubled it to 42 42 and has already gone through 10 of the 21 billion in last two weeks. So I think it's very obvious.
We've had the micro strategy world.
They had a conference in Orlando just a couple of weeks ago.
Michael Saylor went on stage and basically said,
buy all the fucking Bitcoin, pardon my language.
They're doing it and people still seem to be like,
I see a bunch of people saying, oh, it's unsustainable.
Let's see about that.
I just think it's fairly foolish behavior to be fading.
If you add up these little puzzles I've been,
I mentioned in the past few minutes,
it's just so much buying pressure.
And yeah, also, as you said, TradFi almost at all time
high and doing really, really well.
I know there was OPEX a few days ago there's expiration tomorrow it is completely out of my field but
i've seen some people like mention it as an argument why one should be bearish shorter term
um but also i don't as you if i'm interpreting your words correctly i'm not a fan or not the
biggest fan of like a breakout long on btc
we've seen that like a couple days ago right we went to 107 and 102 and almost a billion
dollar liquidated which is hilarious but maybe there's just the risk management of average
market participant these days yeah no i think the so like an all-time high break like a strong
close through it it is a extremely good trade take, especially when the market has spent a long time under the
all time high. Like this has been a really rewarding approach for anyone who's traded
like single names. BTC hasn't spent as much time under the all time high as it did like say for
last summer, but I still think that reflexive behavior will step in. So if we're able to close through it, like I think it's game on, uh, again, you
don't, there's really fairly few times where a market offers an opportunity that
where everyone can get involved, um, from short-term traders and long-term
traders.
And you basically tell everyone like, Hey, if you sold by the way, you're
wrong because we've continued to, you know, make new ground, uh, the like sailor buying and all these large entities buying, like I am kind of spooked by sailor, to be honest.
You know, everyone draws the comparison to the Eggman.
And I've talked about Brian Hunter and natural gas like over a decade ago.
But the thing about BTC is like this can go so much higher while everyone is arguing about what kind of long-term effect this would have.
BTC's float, like its true float, is super liquid, right?
And for the most part, it's held by really long-term entities.
So when any kind of real spot demand shows up, so nine figures of buying in BTC in the spot market, it has a material impact.
buying in BTC in the spot market has a material impact.
It totally punches above its weight.
Like a stocks float, right?
BTC is so much smaller than much of the larger stocks,
which we see traded every single day.
Like Apple is, I think, 16 billion shares outstanding.
Most of that is free float.
Tesla, you know, it's another big stock,
really liquid, but a ton of turnover.
And that's like 3 billion shares.
And even like smaller crappy stocks, like sub 50 million shares,
they see a higher float turnover than BTC.
So the spot buying we're seeing in BTC is,
it is something that you're taking the supply off the market.
And unlike, you know, let's say like unlike tech stocks where there's billions of shares afloat, right?
And you have deep liquidity.
BTC has to move higher to get people to sell to end up freeing up more supply for future buyers.
So when you have real buyers step in, whether institutions, ETF sovereigns, whatnot, there's barely any supply to absorb it.
So price has to rise to rise to basically incentivize selling.
And this just creates a massive overextension.
So all of these people kind of copying one off of Sailor,
like it's, you know, I think it's sketchy
and maybe over longer time horizons,
like the idea that people would control such a significant supply
of a really small, you know, a market with very little supply.
But in the short term, which, you know, short term in this market is, you know, could be anywhere from six months.
Actually, that's like long term to most people on crypto Twitter, six months to a year.
But like short term, within the next couple of years, next five years, all of these entities could have a disproportionate effect in this market
compared to any other market.
So keeping an eye on them, like what was this more recent one you said?
Jack Mallers was that?
21 Bitcoin, 21 shares.
He bought like half a yard of BTC.
Half a yard is just fine.
You have Nakamoto from David.
I'll butcher his name, but David B something, Bailey.
Yeah.
And BTC on like a stock,
like let's say someone large sovereign
wants to step in and buy a bunch of Tesla.
There's no designated market makers
for the most part in crypto
compared to like on the NYSE
and on major exchanges.
So when someone steps in,
like liquidity dries up, people step out of the way.
Um, so I mean this, yeah, this is all like have a really profound effect if it just continues
to accelerate.
And we've seen again, a lot of ETF buying.
Um, so yeah, I don't know where we are in the next, you know, six months or a year,
but, um, in the short term, this is all really good.
In the long term, it just feels weird.
So very funny, actually.
Since we started these spaces 11 minutes ago,
I'm tracking this.
I'm not sure if you've paid attention.
Probably no.
But I've seen a lot of chatter about this hyperliquid well,
basically aping nine figures.
So in this stream, you can see everything in order flow.
And people don't like one minute child, but I just find it hilarious.
So in the last nine minutes, the guy added around $110 million.
So this candle you see on one or five-minute chart is this guy alone, I think.
Yeah, he bought 3,000 BTC right here in the last five minutes.
No, he added, let me see on multitasking but
let's see but yeah he added at least 120 million dollars worth of bitcoin in last five minutes
no yeah i'm looking at that's i'm sorry i just quoted oh he's still adding okay um yeah he's
adding up here yeah like as we speak yeah yeah yeah that's hyper liquid is like it's it was like flat all morning
and then uh at like uh uh what was this um 17 utc um so just again yeah six minutes ago it's like
exploded the open interest yeah so bro is yeah he's adding here just i just wanted i guess why
i'm saying it it's not like oh look a guy with a lot of money. It's more of a, you know, back to your point with basically to simplify this.
Hey, it doesn't really take that much money to actually move price.
No, and this is weird because this guy has been like, he was like the central focus yesterday because he did a ton of lifting yesterday.
His cost basis yesterday was I think around 103.
And then he ended up reducing in the overnight around 105, 106.
And the impact on the way up was more profound than the impact on the way down, which is
meaningful. The path of least resistance is higher. And yeah, it doesn't appear like this
is like PSYOPs. He could easily be hedged on another exchange, but it just, you
know, seems like so.
I can't figure it out.
You know, I see a lot of people trying to dig into it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, how many people have like a billion dollars to hedge, you know, to be $700 million
long on Hyperliquid and $700 million short somewhere else?
Yeah.
Well, you know, I don't know.
I don't know.
The cost of capital on futures is, you know, you don't have to put up everything. So.
I just think he's degenerated. That's that's, you know, I think easier explanation.
Yeah. You know, it's like it's interesting because every cycle, though, there is one degenerate who gets really rewarded and then is kind of legendary for a bit um and i think it might actually mean something actually not only did was there a
limited impact on the way back but the market is not as aggressively hunting this person out as
one might anticipate when something is this transparent like oh this is kind of like like
i usually give the example of like just painting a red bullseye on a zebra's back like there's no
chance that that red, that,
that zebra is going to last long in the wild.
not to go into why zebras blend in and the importance of their camouflage and have a whole conversation about animals.
But,
the,
the,
the fact that this doesn't get hunted and like,
poached,
I don't know,
maybe speaks to something like this guy maybe ends up on the right side of
history in the near,
near future.
Yeah, no, yeah, just...
So let's see what else did we have?
We skipped last week, so there's a bunch of stuff
that happened. Even though
Bitcoin price did not really move,
ETH managed not to do
what ETH does best, which is retrace,
which is a positive sign.
What else do we got?
Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of these companies and institutions, which I think just want to skip the whole hurdle of like self-custody of any crypto. But so, you know, there's just a bunch of people buying IBIT. We've seen a bunch of that.
Pretty big news, which affects me personally too,
is that there's going to be a FTX Stimmy coming up in a few weeks,
which is pretty massive because it's going to be,
if I'm not mistaken, $5 billion on May 30th,
which is, you know, just days away.
It actually lines up pretty fun like the good timing is pretty good with bitcoin las vegas conference in i believe
it's in a week too so there's a bunch of stuff happening next week and late next week should be
pretty fun too that's a uh vice president vance is speaking right right? And also Eric Trump, but I mean
last time he spoke he said it was a good time
to add Eve.
When is the exact date of this again?
Because this is probably going to be important because
you probably have people that remain sticky
and long into this.
Absolutely, it is
I'm second my computer
27th, 29th there's going to bed vans and yeah the younger trumps and
obviously our one and only kreg head sailor yeah no it's it's the usual full setup um i i agree
i've seen a lot of you know the for you page from micro strategy holders a lot of these
you know very um a lot of people with very strong views but you holders a lot of these you know very a lot of people with very
strong views but you know a lot of expectations of a big announcement potentially i've even seen
people the usual good old favorite of mine is that us is going to sell gold and buy bitcoin
with the proceeds which i find thing is you know if that was to drop obviously that is
new all-time high instantly but i don't think that
is yeah i don't think that has any substance i think we also had this week um uh which is kind
of like a pretty large pivot uh jamie diamond allowing jp morgan customers to buy btc but
jp morgan won't custody it something along those lines um we're not allowing for the spot custodying but i
guess they could purchase btc through their their plumbing which is uh it flies in the face of what
he was saying like only a couple years back um where i think he said essentially he would fire
any employee that was found to be trading crypto like complete disdain for this
so slowly but surely everyone is coming on board to, you know, as we should
remind the crowd, everyone is coming on board to BTC, not to your 16th animal token permutation
that has a 5k 24 hour volume. But I mean, not for nothing, like there are a lot of alts that,
you know, I just got to put feelings aside. Like there are a lot of alts that, you know, I just got to put feelings aside.
Like there are a lot of alts that have, that consistently remain performant.
And it's, you know, it's no surprise that the composition of the market hasn't really changed much.
So people's interests haven't changed.
It's not like, you know, to expect the market would change would be like expecting a bunch of iphone users to just switch over to android so clearly like 4chan and meme has um been jammed up again at any sign of uh the market um
showing strength btc showing strength and um like you know say what you want about them i don't uh
i don't trade alts much i only trade alts like when we're like super high momentum environment
through all-time highs otherwise i try to focus intraday trading on where most of the activity is maybe just a couple alts.
But yeah, I think like hyperliquid kind of pulled back a little bit.
Fartcoin pulling back.
I can never imagine I'd be saying that sentence.
Fartcoin pulling back over 20 years ago.
But here we are.
But I think like, yeah, I mean i i do want to keep an eye on some
of these dumb memes because if if btc let's say is making an all-time high um i think it'll be
important to pay attention to who doesn't lose their footing through that high because there's
a you know it doesn't take much to move btc and then sort of equally and even more it doesn't take
really anything to move alts um so you, as far as momentum plays go and beta plays, I think it just makes sense to look to where the market is like jamming in versus trying to like make the best investments right now.
But I know you don't trade alts.
And like I'm the same boat as you, man.
I have complete disdain for the most part, every altcoin.
You know, it's just i think it's like
hard to maybe i'm because i'm 40 years old it's hard to wrap my head around something called fart
coin but it's just i guess it's the zeitgeist it's the sign of the times i'm not a zoomer so
i don't really quite fit in in that regard i did trade a bunch of alts actually i've
been you know the usual gCR setup of Sell the News.
I think there's an exciting setup even for a washed altcoin shorter
like myself on Trumpcoin.
There's the denarius in three days.
And Justin's son is like, he's literally tweeting 10 times per hour
that he's looking forward to meeting the president and whatnot.
So I think that could be a really fun day to day trade.
And just, you know, I've taken like 30 shorts on Trump coin in last month
because it just keeps on giving.
So, you know, so I do still trade out coins.
But usually on the shorter side, I mean, it's the usual, right?
Project tweeting 73 times per day hey
are you guys ready for the biggest news for trump coin ever notifications on you know discord ama
coming and then they launched like a fucking loyalty program integration nft marketplace
bullshit and everybody's expectations get crashed obviously Obviously, caveat is, you know, if BTC was to break out and I mean, it doesn't, it's like 2% away, 3% away.
Then obviously, I don't want to be hoarding any altcoin.
But yeah.
Yeah, I mean, as far as like altcoin and news trades go, I think this market is so ripe with like plenty of data,
you could just reverse engineer. And that trade is one of them, like the amount of times that
I've seen an altcoin release news, and then not continue to just completely give background in
the following week. I can't even count that on one hand. So this is like one area that not to
like go too far into like what people should be
doing.
But if you're an intraday trader, you have so much info in so many cases and events
that you can study over the last couple of years that I'll just point to if we're in
anything other than extreme bull market conditions, it almost always pays to keep an eye on any of these newsprints and then look
for that backside sell because none of the positioning is sticky.
Like it's all short-term traders jamming in at the highs and then just
continuing to melt back down.
Not an area that I spent enough time in.
But if you have enough margin,
that's difficult to the GCR short is funny.
Cause like there are periods where he could just short continuously short, no matter how high it went, because there's no chance
that he would be liquidated. And he just was so clear that the thing was traveling back down to
zero. Something that's interesting, you know, it's not like my area of expertise by any means,
but like, all of the derivative positioning this time around, at the return to the highs is like,
All of the derivative positioning this time around at the return to the highs is like
suspiciously muted, like implied volatility, annualized basis, whether it's quarterlies
or you're looking at annualized basis in CME contracts.
Maybe this just speaks to the fact that there's just large entities picking up spot and doing
most of the lifting, but there's almost no, I mean, there's some excitement.
The other day was like perfect example of when the market is going to give back a bunch of points people were talking about the all-time high break before it happened um and it's just like all right
so everyone is long so now we're going to go back and sell lips you know sell off another 2 000
points but um as far as like market feedback goes there's no i don't know is there any do you see any froth or anything
i don't see any froth really uh no i think i think it's literally all bitcoin um
everything it's like all eyes on bitcoin people don't like it because there's gonna be somebody
ah you missed mudank like yes i missed mudank and today i just think it's like we've seen a complete
um disconnect in the market which i think is actually pretty damn good for both tryhards on Bitcoin,
like maybe me and you,
but also people who enjoy trading meme coins and nothing wrong with that.
But, you know, I, so, you know, some of these went up like 20 X
and now we're back like another 60% down.
So they're still up a lot, but it's just like,
maybe just for you to get a
little heart rate up but if you open a chart of nero if like i mean whatever that is it went up
like 10x or whatever 6x since april 8th 700 up and now you know like 60 down in one candle like just
what i'm trying to say, these coins, you know,
I'm sure a lot of people trade that.
Like if I see Prof in Nero Eve, like, is that giving me any signal for Bitcoin?
Probably no.
What I would be personally scared of, even if I was a meme coin trader,
you know, if there was like a Bitcoin open interest at all-time highs,
but I don't see that at all.
No, I don't see anything at all so i no i don't see the answer
you know i don't see anything yeah neither do i just it seems like like you said i mean that has
been like the story though the market is super bifurcated it feels like two different markets
at this point which i i kind of love um and i think that'll actually just continue you'll see
that certain pairs probably much to the disdain of a lot of people in the
alt market, will cross the Rubicon over into TradFi. And it'll probably be like XRP and Solana
and some stuff maybe that doesn't even make sense. Maybe EOS gets its own ETF. But you'll continue,
I think, see this split, which is not bad because the altcoin market, as long as it's
continuously kind of not as long as it remains somewhat separate, you won't have to deal with
like the Citadels or the, you know, the depth of participants that get involved once you're
trading in like institutional favored plumbing and in TradFi.
So I personally like it.
I think it's like I like the idea of having IBIT along with SpotBTC, having some on just my BTC exposure on my traditional brokerage accounts and being able to trade those through there.
Because in many cases, there's some things that are just not available in this market.
I can't trade on Deribitbit but i could trade ibit options you
know um and then ibit also is is a thick market uh so if you're kind of constrained by venue it's
nice to be able to just you know as a person in the united states um to hop on you know the to
two-way trade with the nisey right so i So I think you'll continue to see this. I think there'll be a lot of alts
that just kind of remain in this, like, black market almost
and will still be really inefficient.
And then you'll have a bunch that, again, cross over
and, you know, we'll probably just trade completely differently.
Yeah, I mean, Bitcoin looks like it won, so.
I noticed it without, like, screen screen sharing it's actually kind of difficult but yeah someone's devapping into btc pretty damn hard literally
since we started so at least it's something to talk about yeah i don't know i like btc
this is like pretty much everything else um no news there um it's just, I think, but the main argument there is
there's so much interest
in Bitcoin, and I know for a fact
like these people are not going to rotate to altcoins.
That is basically
the whole thesis. I don't know. It's so...
Oh, yeah, for sure.
Like, is Saylor going to
ever
sell Bitcoin or rotate
into something else?
Is Tether going gonna start buying something else
i don't know maybe maybe we'll have the new ethereum you know maybe we'll have a sailor of ethereum because effectively if eve outperforms big time altcoins will outperform big time that is
the easiest equation in all of crypto ever and it just was not happening for past three years and
crypto ever and it just was not happening for past three years and i i'm just again we another
week passed i'm not sure what would change that dynamic well i don't think you can i think like so
i got involved and was was lucky enough to start participating back in 2016 which is not long ago
compared to some people but the market structure reinforced the patterns that were somewhat
predictable and were as big as they were because of the reduced options that you had.
So, you know, you could trade BTC and you could trade BTC pairs.
So to go into alts, you left BTC and then to get out of alts, you went into BTC and
there was no, there was no stable market like there is today.
There was no direct pathway to fiat like there is today.
So there, there's this, this like saw semi predictable seesaw effect.
And that doesn't exist now.
You have also like in 2017, 2018, there was like, I don't know, I'm just like winging it a thousand alts,
thousand to 3000.
I don't remember, but it was something insanely, you know,
infinitesimally small compared to what it is today. So there's way too many options. Back then it was
like, it was extremely easy for the market to get lifted as a whole, which is a rising tide. But
there's no chance that's going to happen today. And it's just like a sign of a mature market, even
though this market isn't mature. And they'll just be they'll be continued dispersion and there'll be alt seasons that there'll be areas of the market
where people can be in one area and another person can be in another and have completely
different views on how healthy the market is how good the market is you know it'd be like trading
tech stocks versus like you know again healthcare stocks at the wrong time right like you're in the
stock market but you're not in the same area there's you know, again, healthcare stocks at the wrong time, right? Like you're in the stock market, but you're not in the same area.
There's, you know, completely different experience.
So, yeah, I think we'll see that continue.
It's just, we're never going to go back to that sort of really broad, you know,
sweep of everything that we saw.
And it's really easy to get into stables and you'll see things trade more independently.
So I'm for it. i'm for it i'm for it
yeah on the topic of stable coins so what i think is pretty major
from my understanding for mostly u.s and being a euro poor not sure what implications would be for
me but the stable coin genius act situation i think that is a big one uh from if you will headline of past week definitely need to read up on that for the
next spaces and just i think it's overall plus eb to know what is happening yeah it's something
that i definitely don't uh i haven't read into enough all i have is like the image of Elizabeth Warren looking really defeated on the Senate floor.
Who knows if that's even from that event or it was just like added in there.
But yeah, I mean, there's, you know, removing the regulatory risk, it improves this market,
regardless of like what people's views are.
That was like one of the reasons why it was not safe for a lot of the bigger entities that we want in this market.
That's one of the reasons why they didn't get involved in this market.
So all these things that end up putting more kind of guardrails in place,
they help the plumbing rather than reduce the upside, I think.
So it's all good.
I think we're coming to the end of this, though.
I don't know if we want to open it up to a question or lights out here.
Yeah, let me see. There's nobody who's requested any time right now.
But, yeah, we can wrap it up in the next couple of minutes.
If anyone wants to come up, just request. I'll let you up.
But right now we don't have anybody so if
you guys just want to wrap it up as well that's okay i mean everybody's pretty happy if charts
are green so mood life is good yeah it seems like no questions this week well thank you guys for
coming along it's been great thank you and have a good day thanks guys hopefully new all-time high by the time we
talk again let's go see you guys next week Thank you.
