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Trading Weekly | $SPY $QQQ $GRAB $RBRK | Requests! with @ShaunTrades_ + @InvestKaye
Recorded: March 8, 2026 Duration: 0:59:20Space Recording
Full Transcription
hello hello welcome back to trading weekly once again we're in march all of a sudden it's been a
couple of weeks how you been k i'm doing great man and um welcome back from your vacation we
saw a few pictures you posted it was fun to see i've been to rome so yeah it's a beautiful place
i highly recommend it i'm looking forward to uh to going back someday as well there's not many
day as well there's not many places i'll go back into europe but there's two specific places and
places i'll go back into europe but there's two specific places and that is obviously rome
that is obviously rome um which we found out last week and barcelona as well so um if you haven't
been to any of those i do recommend them both but yeah we're back on the charts today back into the
market it's been a fun couple of weeks in the market hasn't it okay um crazy exactly uh we'll
get into that obviously a little bit but of course we're just a couple of guys on the internet looking at charts giving our perspectives with in and around the market of
course so it's not financial advice um obviously massive thank you to wolf as well for the platform
up there in the top right hand corner um but make sure you put your stock requests in the comments
whether you're on x or live on youtube um which of course you can find us at trading weekly on
youtube we've actually hit over 400 subscribers now um we don't ever push it at all to be honest but i looked at it
this morning and uh 405 and so yeah on the road to 100 100 road to 500 should i say road to 500
right exactly um but we didn't push that at all to be fair um yeah okay right so how was your well
how's your trading been the last couple of
weeks i guess we'll talk about that first yeah i think trading has been um pretty disciplined i
would say uh i've been focused on specifically three tickers uh meta nvidia and tesla and the
primary reason is because they have been trading in a range so it's easier to sell options on when stocks are in a range
i have not taken many risks considering the market and especially with the whole sass
narrative you know really getting impacted also we are at the tail end of the earnings so there
is not many catalysts left for trading as well especially on on those tickers. And honestly, man, from the last one month, two months,
I would say, the whole SaaS narrative has been a real dampener.
Like data center stocks are down, SaaS stocks are down.
There are not that many great names to trade.
That's what I'm trying to get at.
Is there any names in the SaaS space that you're looking at
that might just be extremely asymmetrical that case like mongodb gitlab that kind of thing
yeah i mean gitlab i i i don't recommend gitlab uh and one of the reasons with is that i mean i
have been holding this gitlab you know stock since 2024 and I'm still down 50% on that position.
So there is, yeah, so it's, it's,
so I, you know, it's just been one of those pretty sad names.
But I would say this, I think Snowflake,
I would still keep an eye on Snowflake,
Datadog.
And then one of the tickers that I'm going to talk today is Rubrik,
which is on the cybersecurity AI space.
I still think Monday has a very good chance to recover
because I've been following that company for a while now
and I've noticed that some of the features that they have really launched are actually pretty in line with what enterprises want.
Now, whether they are able to sell those features to implement it or not, that we will get to know in the next couple quarters.
But I think the features they are coming up with is really, really good.
Okay, we'll move on to the actual bulk of the the stream then um if you put down snowflake in
the request because I'd like to request that myself on the chart um but yeah as you can see
on the screen everyone and obviously we've got the market overview fear and greed index earnings
preview uh spy kiki charts yearly performance as always and our picks of the week which this week I've got grab and Kay has got rubric so we're excited to get into
there a little bit later on but for now we're going to move on to the next slide
which was last week's performance and as you can see mostly red there's a few
green stocks on there mostly obviously in the tech tech sector but the one
that's not which is on electronic technology as you can see on the left
which is Broadcom AV AVGA up 6%.
Other notable names, of course, we've got NVIDIA, Google, kind of around 2% negative.
Then we've got Apple down just over 5%.
And where's the other one?
Tesla, there it is, down 1.5% as well.
So it's mixed names there.
How did you feel last week, Germany? Because it was
a bit of a red week and it felt a lot worse than that potentially. It did, honestly. And I think
things turned out pretty bad on Friday per se. Also, one of the reasons was the job numbers that
came out. Because instead of adding 50,000 jobs, we ended up losing 90,000 jobs or plus.
So that also impacted the market.
We, of course, have the escalation going on in the Middle East.
That's adding fuel to the fire.
No pun intended.
And then basically the whole gas prices, I think.
And that's going to be a key.
I didn't even realize that ExxonMobil, which used to trade around $100, $110,
is actually sitting at 150
we completely missed that run up on the on the oil a little bit higher tomorrow as well
yeah so we'll see see what happens there uh but yeah generally quite a red break we'll get into
the charts in just a second i think i've got something to say on spy which is something we've
been saying for the last couple of months and i think it's finally happening um so let's jump
is that a bit later on but first of all we've got the fear agreed and as we can see
that we're sitting at 27. one week ago which of course we weren't live um that was 38 and then
one month ago we were 46 so we are dropping back into extreme fear potentially again we'll see at
the charts in a minute but we could potentially jump into extreme fear for a period of time, shall we say.
But I don't think it's all doom and gloom in terms of the markets, but we'll get to that a bit later on.
Do you want to talk to the left side of the screen there, Kay?
Yeah, so put to call has, as you know, has slowly starting creeping up closer to one, which of course, you know, which means that market is more bearish compared to bullish generally is around 0.6, 0.65.
That's when folks are risk on in the grid.
We look at protocol around 0.6, 0.65.
Wix actually is 29.
Generally, Wix is around like 17, 18.
So we do expect some volatility going on into next week.
You can see SPY was pretty pretty flat and i know you're
going to cover spy so we're going to skip that qqq point flat as well for the week even though it
felt very red on friday and thursday but overall it was pretty flat for the week couple key events
all week you know we'll be keeping an eye on the or slash oil prices on what's going on and you
know as the news unfolds,
we will probably see more impact there.
Then we also have some initial jobless claims numbers
that are going to come out on Thursday.
And then we have the core PC numbers coming out
on Friday, which is 312.
Is that not by Thursday?
Actually, it was 3...
I think I got the...
I think it's 313, not12 yeah yeah it was friday i remember
for pc yeah first day friday respectively happy sunday to verla thank you for the message there
um of course we did have money managed earlier as well hood coin and ttt which are all on the list
um verla i think you pointed out path which of course we've got on the list i think that's
probably first up as well so obviously we get to that very very shortly we'll move on to the next
slide then which is earnings um not a huge amount in terms of interest this week but a massive one
for me we've got neo um before market open on Tuesday which I'm really looking forward to seeing
um and of course um Oracle as well there's the chart is not looking so good but it just has
kind of breaking out of a lower trend line um which is quite interesting perhaps we can get that down on the
on the on the suggestions as well okay if you could do that sure um heading into earnings as
well could be quite interesting for people to see but yeah oracle is one of those i've got kind of
my eye on at the moment and uh rubric as well on thursday after the close which you're covering a
bit later on is there anything else on this screen that you're kind of looking at for the
week ahead?
Well,
it seems like UI path is also reporting earnings this week.
Oh yes.
So I think,
yeah,
those are the main names I would say.
You've got Adobe as well after the close on Thursday.
That's true.
So we,
we'll probably see how,
actually there's another one,
Sentinel one,
right underneath rubric.
That's in the cybersecurity space.
Oh, okay.
Yeah.
Interesting things going on with cybersecurity at the moment.
It's very necessary, but it's AI actually going to do it.
Who knows?
Do you have any immediate thoughts on that, Kay,
or should we just brush over that?
No, I think we're good.
We can move on to the Spy and QQQ.
Okay, then. first charts of the
day we've got spy daily on the left as you can see there and on the right we've got the qqq weekly
and i'm going to talk a little bit to the spy daily because you can see on the left there
we have this red shaded area this has been going on for about three months now just over three maybe
almost four months um this the shaded area and i did a
bit of analysis on my live stream on friday and on the market close and we haven't had a period
of sideways action for about six years i think it was this length of sideways action which sounds a
bit crazy but obviously we've been in this range for almost three months and we haven't had a three
month period like that um for a number of years as users I just mentioned so and it looks like we kind of tried to break out a bit on Tuesday
but we kind of came back up and held it and perhaps a little bit desperation there kind of
oh no we're going to lose the space but Friday we have had a drop not only a gap down but an undecisive candle which may lead to more downside at least temporarily
um so targets wise if we do get this drop down i'm looking around that kind of 660 to 664 on the
spy um that would be ideal if you get a bit of a bounce there because obviously we've got the 100
million average here um with the 200 million average this is kind of a moving average cloud
i've got on the screen here but i just like to just the way i look at my technical analysis um but the reason i wanted
to kind of come down to 660 and 664 is because it would be a slightly higher low um you know
kind of coming up in this trend so even though the trend is kind of weakening it would still be
technically a bull market trend um so if we get a bounce at 660, 664, that's kind of what I'm looking at.
Moving on to the QQQ, that would obviously come down to kind of 570, 580 respectively,
which of course we do have the Fibonacci levels there, which we've had for a few months up there
now. What are your thoughts on these two charts? I've had my kind of two cents here.
I think first of all, it's amazing that we didn't have this sideways motion for the last six years.
And that's why I think one of the reasons is it is getting extremely tricky to trade.
You do have to trade names.
You cannot just pick anything.
Generally, when we are a risk on in greed or extreme greed, you can pretty much pick any ticker.
And you will start to see on Fintw to it there's just a lot more screenshots of people
you know hey this is successful that is successful but i think this market has been really brutal
especially in terms of trading and um you know all some of the names like if you look at max 7
just the max 7 forget about any other uh sector every
pretty much every stock is down year to date or or in the last one year and that is also you know
an indication is the market is not sure what is happening and that's why we are in this sideways
i am actually interested you know if you if we actually dip below if we break down, of course, there are different support levels
that you will have throughout.
But actually, if a 10% drop happens on SPY,
you will actually be filling that gap
that happened back in June of 2020.
You see that gap?
It's right on your left-hand side. June of 2020. You see that gap?
It's right on your left hand side.
June of 2020?
Yeah. So, you know, you see the subscribe?
You see subscribe? There's a gap there.
That gap.
The 2025.
Yeah. So that's 2025. So that is almost a 10% town.
I'm not saying that's going to happen right away.
That's from here, isn't it? Not from the top. Correct. So from where we are, it's about 11%,
10.73%. That's a pretty dramatic drop. That's a pretty dramatic drop.
The weekly on the Q's here, we did drop from 540 all the way down to 410 yeah thereabouts
which is a massive drop that's over 20 of course um but yeah going back to that kind of gap that
you've mentioned there i mean 10 from all-time highs would see about 700 about 630 which kind
of comes in line with the 200 million average so that could be the first point of call then if we lose that then of course 604 but yeah i think if we do it might go one of two ways i'm not predicting the market thing but
just kind of speaking to my past experiences um we might just get a complete free fall down from
this this gap which we've kind of started seeing on friday and price action from friday was not
very nice at all had a bit of a
a kick up into the close um but if it did subsequently drop down just before the close
um anyway it doesn't matter or we come back up to this sort of level um to kind of 678 at that
kind of level and then really kind of drop down from there so there's two different scenarios that
play out um or of course the first scenario is we just rip from the moon this is a
bit of a fake out and of course we just go straight up um but with everything that's going on in the
world it's unlikely but we'll see yeah and also there isn't any so the earning season is over
right we had pretty good decent earning season again you know growth for most of the companies
i think they've reported i think 100 out of 100 of the companies had a i think eps beat uh or 90 percent had something
like there were some numbers floating around anyway so this is a pretty good earning season
the the fed chair is not changing until i think middle of june or starting of june so there is
not going to be any rate changes from the Fed. So that catalyst is not coming up any soon.
So what are the catalysts actually left?
The only other catalyst I can think of is the next earnings season,
which will probably start somewhere in April, I guess.
April, mid-April.
Yeah, yeah, two months from now.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's going to be interesting in the next few months because obviously the market generally is kind of forward-looking,
six to 12 months forward-looking um and if it's pricing in stuff that might be
having a six to 12 months time then that might be an indication of where we're heading now yeah
um a bit more of a bearish take there from us so we're a bit more bullish normally but we'll see
what plays out and we'll be back next week at 1 p.m eastern time of course to go through all over
again um and then obviously watch it back up into the 700s we'll move on then uh this screen obviously we can find us on relative platforms
of course we've got on the screen there x um and a youtube icon there for me so at sean trades
underscore um and where can we find you okay well the same as uh sean you can find me on x uh under
the handle invest case sub stack and youtube with the same
handle awesome yeah of course the past so we did a couple of pips two weeks ago i picked neo and k
picked meta and subsequently we've actually done the last two weeks performance rather than last
week's performance so the last two weeks performance neo is down eight percent your
earnings coming up this tuesday though maybe i should have selected it this week um but yeah you've got a meta as well which was down just a modest 1.2 percent so you
take you take the lead for now this year okay i mean i think overall i'm doing well this year
right i mean last year i remember i was like down i was back like behind 10 10 weeks i was behind
you right it's like i think at one point it's like 11 or something like that yeah i was in double
digit some behind you and then i ended up with like a single digit behind at least
yeah but you're doing very well at the moment so that's good um but yeah maybe I need to back up
my ideas and pick some good stuff so this week we've got grab and rubric so we'll see how they
get on for next week um but be sure to follow us on on x there as well and other platforms
we'll move on to the next slide then um my pick of the week here which is grab I'm gonna pay attention to the
fundamentals for a second up there in the top left hand corner so you can see I
don't know if you can read that in such detail the viewers I mean I think hey
can and but we've got total gross merchandise value at top left quadrant
and then we've got total monthly transacting users in the top right quadrant
and then revenue and net income in the bottom quadrants as well so you can see everything's
going from bottom left to top right um the shares outstanding as well as been flatlining for last
um last year or so they're not diluting at least yet um you wouldn't really dilute at these levels
um but yeah going to the chart now then we can see
it's actually a weekly chart i've brought up here today and we can see obviously on the screen here
we've got some resistance that's happened many many times and throughout the last let's say
almost four years um and obviously we've kind of traveled up in this channel as well for the last
year and a half or so um we've come back down to the bottom of the channel.
I've driven, I've drawn a zone here from,
I think it was 370 to 4.
And I've already got long data calls on this one
for expiring January, 2028.
And I'm thinking about adding to that position.
Okay, I want to get your take on this as well.
Given the price action that's obviously happened
in the last four months,
you can see that on the screen.
It's been basically straight down.
We've got the volume profile here.
We've got the support resistance zone that we've just previously mentioned.
And if we do kind of make a bit more of a low here,
that would be a higher low as well. So that would be good for this current channel.
That's kind of moving upwards.
My overall target, of course, is $7, regardless of when that hits.
If it happens in the next year, I'll probably sell my calls.
Or if it goes to expiration, two or three months out,
then hopefully we can get back up to seven.
But yeah, I'm thinking about adding to my long-data call position.
What are your thoughts on that?
And what are your thoughts on the chart that you see on the screen?
I think overall, the fundamentals are definitely improving.
If you look at just the sheer revenue growth,
and it has really jumped from,
we were flat in Q1 2025 at what, 773?
And then we, most recent quarter, they reported 906 million.
So that's a good sign.
So the revenue is accelerating.
Even net income, it jumped from all the way from what 37 million to 171 million that's a that's a pretty massive jump on the net income side um so at least in the last quarter the performance has
looked tremendously well the eps looks well i think the issue that they have even on the free
cash flow they had lost 159 million the previous quarter of 2025 but then they actually had a
net positive free cash flow of 49 million now it's actually lower because they have had free
cash flow of 300 and 200 million few quarters back so overall just the i think that particular fundamental has led to
the decline in stock price but i i do think i like the the long-term positioning because in that
region of southeast asia and and uh basically they are the uber right so i think from a long-term
perspective yes i like it and so when when you're saying you want to add to your long-term leap calls,
is that the 2028 or 2029 has not come out yet, right?
Oh, yes, the January 28 calls.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, I mean, so what level are you thinking?
Like around like a 3.50, 4 o'clock?
Sorry, not 4 o'clock, 4.00, 3.50, 4.00?
So in between 3.70 and 4, yeah.
This red zone, basically. I mean mean i could start adding now because obviously i think um the calls have come down quite a lot and obviously the volatility has
come down as well so i i think i think what you can do though is if we actually see the break of
this um support level and we start trending towards what 380 level.
I think that's when, you know, the $4 call will be...
The range.
Yeah, yeah.
That's where I'm...
$4 is what I'm after, yeah.
That's the call I've got.
So...
That's where I would target the $4 for 2028.
Yeah.
So, okay, that's the ones I've got already.
So I can add to those positions.
If we get
down to 370 then that'd be ideal um i think yeah i mean then you can you can even look at like the
i don't know if they have a three and a half or not do they have a three and a half let me see
i can check one second oh 20 28 no they have a $3 or $4.
So this is a single dollar level.
So yeah, so maybe then four will be definitely very cheap at that point in time to get into.
I'm currently 18% down on the course.
That's not the end of the world.
And I bought them, what, January?
So I've got plenty of time left as well.
I think if you're trading leaps, right?
This is generally the trend that happens with leap is most of the time you will be down on the leaps throughout.
And then you are just looking for the reason you are buying leaps for 12 to 18 months forward looking is because you just need that little patch when the stock price jumps up for whatever reason.
And that's when either you roll the calls forward or you basically sell the calls and make profit that's basically the reason for this whole
leap strategy yeah no i completely understand that obviously i'm sure the viewers tell that
i'm fairly new to options but i'm learning week by week day by day and i'm kind of really excited
about it as well so yeah obviously k's been a massive help for that throughout the journey.
So thank you, Kay, for that.
And that's my pick of the week, which is Grab.
And we can see on the screen there,
we're going to move over to Kay's pick of the week now,
which is Rubrik,
which is one that we've had on the stream a few times before.
I'm excited what you've got to bring to the table today.
Well, so Rubrik is reporting earnings on Thursday.
And as you can see like rubric has has really
been hit pretty hard uh let me also pull the chart on my side so we were trading in this range of we
were trading at like what hundred dollar and then the stock was 90 so multiple you know as things
have but let's touch a little bit some stats over here. So there's generally a 22% move that happens with Rubrik.
So you're looking at about like an $11, $12 move.
So based on today's price, you are looking at the price to be somewhere in the, what is that?
Probably $72, $73 range.
And then at the bottom will be $44, $45 range.
That's basically you're looking at.
Now, of course, by the time you're on Wednesday or Thursday, the price will be 44 45 range that's basically you're looking at now of course you know by the
time you're on wednesday or thursday the price might be different but you're looking at 11 12
range that's basically what i'm trying to get at and generally market only overestimates the move
by 43 so most of the time you are going to look at this 11 12 move range so you could play an iron
condor if you are interested in playing earnings call,
but earnings play, but I'm actually not going to do anything, especially right now in this
situation. I'm staying away from the earnings trade. The other key highlights from a fundamental
standpoint is that the company has been pretty positive. There's a lot of positive sentiment
behind the company. We had had 48% year over year revenue growth you had 82.8 non-gap gross margin improvement and then there is record subscription ARR
which is up 34 percent year over year so the fundamental numbers are very solid
the overhang that rubric will have going into earnings is the
can AI replace SaaS softwares, number one, and second, security.
So I think, unfortunately, this AI overhang is on these things.
But here's an irony in this whole situation.
If AI is going to replace SaaS companies or these security companies, then you need to build data centers.
You need more energy.
You need more compute.
But you're seeing on those segments also, stocks are down on data centers.
Stocks are down on energy sectors, energy battery storage and all that.
Stocks are down on everything related to ai
so and chips as well like nvidia has been like flat trading amazingly for so many you know months
now actually amd is already down so this is a very very interesting time on you know i actually i'm
not going to say i know how to trade i i'm just trying to figure out every single day how to trade.
Very, very difficult.
For me, at least, I'm noticing it's difficult to trade.
So I don't know a good way to trade this one.
I would not trade.
I would wait for the direction before actually saying, hey, because there are a lot of every single SMA is a resistance right now.
And I wouldn't be surprised.
Actually, we go down to the 40s.
Yeah, I mean, I've got an idea in here in terms of a trade.
Obviously, with earnings coming up on Thursday, it's going to be quite tricky.
But first of all, I wanted to point out the facts that we've got.
How do I move it?
Here we go. You see the rsi there
it's an rsi divergence that we've just had so we've had the lows that came down in this sort of area which you can see on my cursor and which was the the deepest red moment for rsi
and then the stock ran lower than this previous low and obviously subsequently actually produced
a slightly higher rsi which is the rsi divergence which means the strength is there at a lower price
actually which means people are interested generally. It doesn't work every time but
it's worth noting and obviously we do have the RSI kind of pushing up from there it's
still about 50 but in terms of entry point once well once the earnings have played out
we have to kind of reassess what i'm about to say
but generally what i would normally look for is a a retracement obviously back up to this
20 million average which i think that is no 50 sorry is that 50 gold one yeah yeah a retracement
back up to the 50 and then i would expect a rejection there to come back down to the previous
high here um which is almost where we are so maybe kind of 55 and that's where i would
enter with a stop loss um obviously below that low maybe about 50 49 maybe even 48 depending on your
wrist style um and obviously that is uh you know with the target of coming back up to kind of the
200 million average or 100 million average of course this would have to be done on a day-by-day
analysis um but that's initially what i would look for, definitely, for this trade.
So I've written it down on my notes there because I really like this setup if that setup plays out.
If the setup doesn't play out, I stay disciplined and I don't take the trade.
It's very, very simple in that respect.
I wonder what the other people are thinking about Rubrik.
It's one of those stocks that has hit me.
So at least...
You're talking about a good story here for Rubrik.
So at least based on my initial research,
the sentiment is very positive on Rubrik.
But the sentiment has been very positive on Rubrik
when it was 70, when it was 90, when it was 80, 60.
So that's not the problem.
So the sentiment is there.
The fundamentals are there.
The issue is that the overhang of ai narrative yeah uh and just a
general broader market right if you if you notice right because of this whole spy and qqq trading in
this range it creates more uncertainty and you're seeing a push to the down downward trend now
question is you know we have been in a downward trend for rubric for a while now question is would this earnings change or would we see a another downtrend
from here now if starts to get into 40s and 30s maybe it gets even more you know juicy
yeah i mean we'd have to wait i think three or four trading days after the earnings as well
because we saw it even just in the last report you can see it gapped up here and then you know two weeks following it
straight back down to that same level exactly that's going to be hard for any investors or
traders if it does pump up you know 10 15 on the day it's going to be hard for people to still buy
that because of its past reactions exactly and the market is emotional so in my in my in my
way if you are going to trade rubric especially for the earnings i will go probably iron condor
on this one and i will take profit if i'm up 30 40 50 percent on that credit i would actually
close that trade i would not continue trying to you know get the entire 100 credit on selling iron condor
yeah i think we covered rubric quite well there um i'm sure people will love that
okay should we move on to the charting yes we can kick it off so the first one will be path
and then we can go if you're new here today of course if you just put your sticker request in the
comments down below ready on youtube or on x we've had quite a few already um we will get through
them about this we've got space for at least five more yeah and so go ahead and stick them in the
chat and we'll get to them um as and when okay let's jump into the charts then what did you say
was first case sorry at uipat okay I think while before you actually start doing the technical analysis,
I'll just,
I'll just say this UI path.
Unfortunately,
no matter how good their earnings are going to be,
we'll have the same AI overhang.
In my opinion,
like all other stocks, all sas stocks until that narrative
starts to shift we will not see any sas stock you know rallying that's that's that's a general
outlook that i think is happening with sas in general regardless of their earnings what do you
think would have to change for that sentiment to change twice there?
I think the narrative in terms of
they are able to improve their,
not just renewal of their existing contract,
but they are able to sell,
cross-sell across divisions
and upsell more products and services
while proving that their AI features
that they are embedding in their softwares are actually getting adopted by organizations.
Give you an example, Satya Nadella most recently showed a new co-pilot.
Co-pilot is one of the worst AI models at least implemented on the enterprise side.
People don't like to use coilot it sucks it cannot even do a basic email analysis from outlook properly so maybe satan dela is using
some special you know copilot version which works very well but at least on the enterprise side it
sucks um i mean that's just a a layman
user's perspective from an email people who actually are developer softwares they hate
copilot at least from the from the feedback i have received so i think that narrative has to
change in terms of the ai features of the software companies are getting adopted by
enterprise and they will only adopt and buy more if they
are seeing benefit from those features.
It's a bit like Palantir in a way.
In the early stages, not everyone knew their capabilities of that particular software.
Once that took off, then everyone was buying them and the word was getting out and the
enterprise was buying them, government was buying them.
And obviously that's probably still in the stock price but see these these companies have already
sold the stock to the enterprise so people are already the companies are already using the
software now the issue is a lot so the way if you take any software for example whether it's crm
whether it's adobe whether it's monday whether it's whatever right you take a name they are embedding new ai features within the tool some have a model where they're giving out a free trial version
but the question with software companies the biggest challenge is the adoption of the software
or the feature by the client and until that happens at scale because otherwise how are you going to make money right if you if if client is not ready to the whole business of software is subscription based
right so you you need to get more people or more seats per user per month but then if you're adding
the ai features it's increasing the cost of the company that's why you're seeing a lot of layoffs
on happening on the side because the cost for the company is increasing and they are not seeing the revenue move at the same pace
because when yeah because let's say you run an ai feature and suddenly it starts sending a lot of
calls and your your uh your cost is going up because you have to buy you have to build more
data center you have to pay more to buy chips and all that stuff and then so your cost is going up because you have to buy, you have to build more data center, you have to pay more to buy chips and all that stuff. And then so your cost is going up, revenue is not coming in because
the enterprise is not buying it at scale. That's the problem. Interesting to see how
quickly that adopts, if at all. I don't think that's going to be a quick one. I think that's
this narrative will take time to shift
because this has been so negative for time.
And the problem is if AI can do everything,
then why is the data center stocks not going up?
Why are the chip stocks not going up?
Because you cannot have both ways, right?
You cannot not have the SaaS softwares go down,
but the AI stocks are not going up.
Here's a case study for you.
So I'm a new investor.
I'm not a new investor.
I'm an investor who's interested in SaaS software.
I know a little bit about it.
Obviously not me, but just an example.
There's ETFs out there which are related to SaaS companies.
IGV.
I still think that it's going to happen within
a kind of four to ten year period i want to add to my position i want to continue you know at
dollar cost averaging i think um probably best chance to call it is that something that you
would look into do i think i agree yeah i i think i would rather go with the igv etf which is like
all sas companies because the problem is we don't know who's going to be the winner I would rather go with the IGV ETF, which is like all SaaS companies
because the problem is we don't know
who's going to be the winner.
Some big names will win.
Some new names might just pop out of nowhere and win.
Some existing players might completely diminish.
So we don't know.
So I think rather than picking,
hey, I'm going to pick Monday
or I'm going to pick Path
or I'm going to pick Snowflakeake i would rather go igv um to hedge yeah to hedge and and igv actually has a very good
return if you actually look at the if you look at the ticker per se when we can bring it up
actually they had a very nice clean break on the trend line.
Yeah.
You see, the downtrend was broken
and we had a nice little retest.
Oh, you're talking about this one?
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, so getting a bit of a push-up in the last two weeks, actually.
Exactly.
I mean, it's still down.
It's still below 200 ASMA.
It's still below 300 ASMA.
So if you are interested in sas space i think this
might be a better play than individual names now keep in mind the the roi on etf will always be
lower than the roi on a particular single ticker right because you pick snowflake for example and
snowflake runs up 100 igb will not not run 100%. Just for that perspective.
It may do eventually.
If you're looking at a 5-10 year
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
We've said that with SMH
No, what I'm saying is that
don't expect ETFs
to run the same way as an individual ticker.
But this could go down to
someone who's at a specific time in their life
or a specific kind of risk profile and front of how they trade and invest.
Yeah.
So it's just worth keeping out an eye for kind of software stocks in the name of IGV.
Yeah.
Okay.
Well, we've diverted that slightly.
We'll move on back to the slideshow.
What was the first ticker again?
Sorry.
UiPath.
UiPath.
Yeah.
Sorry, Vola.
We will eventually cover Path. we got a little too too sentimental
on the sas talk yes we did it's interesting i mean a lot of people are kind of talking about
it obviously um when you have these stocks down so much people want to know why and you know
what's the potential of these stocks anyway we're devoting again well i am at least um path weekly chart we are down to the all-time lows yeah pretty much all-time lows of about 9 30.
we did bounce off of that from 9 30 up to all right to kind of 12 now um which is pretty good
i think this is a weekly chart we're looking at here okay um i think if we can get back above this
volume profile season matters a ton of volume at this level we can get back above that come back down and retest it so let
me draw that out for people while you do that let me also quickly see since they report earnings
uh we need some earnings data too um so generally the actual move is about let's say 13 to 14
So generally the actual move is about, let's say 13 to 14% of the price.
So this is what $11 stock would be $2, something like that.
obviously it all boils down to the earnings on Wednesday
yeah
and then generally the market
overestimates about 58% of the time
so you're looking at a move of
maybe like 1.3 to 1.6
somewhere in that range
plus minus
okay there's something to bear in mind 3 to 1.6 somewhere in that range, plus minus.
Okay.
Yeah, something to bear in mind.
Yeah.
Overall, I think the move towards kind of $15,
if we get to there, then we come back to... It's going to be difficult
because you are under the $300 and the $200 SMA.
So at $13.44 and $13.09,
that's a major resistance to break.
Definitely not easy. You can see that reflected on the screen there. So Kay talked about this
is the 100 and 200. So that's going to be a big kind of resistance. It actually added
nice support here back in November of last last year um and resistance actually recently in february so that again like you say that'll be hard to get through um but if we do get out to 15 and come
back down to 13 that could be a good entry point just there a nice bit of support underneath
for your trade um okay next is hood
it's one of those i never really look at actually actually. You used to trade Robinhood a lot, right, back in the day?
Yeah, back when it was kind of in the 30s, 40s.
And then I just kind of lost interest.
I think it's a bit too overhyped, maybe too volatile for me, to be fair.
It happens, it happens.
I feel like Robinhood right now is kind of forming a a range is being in this
little range of 71 and uh 81 dollars from last uh month now
same as the market isn't it really it's um true and ranging yeah this one's been holding up
with you know kind of with the market yeah previous trend line here um coming across all
of these lows if we were to get some upside that would be an important resistance point to get
through obviously that is actually quite far away from where we are now Verla says I will never trade Robinhood because
of their CEO Vlad Tenev I think his name is but yeah we're getting some rejection here off the
20 million average but it needs to see yeah a bit of support do have a body profile here I suppose
I'm not gonna be trading it it's in no man's land in my opinion it's much support. I mean, it could be one of those ones for range-bound trading,
for you perhaps, okay?
You just mentioned it, obviously.
Yeah, that's true.
But generally, in this kind of a market,
I stick with the bigger names than more.
So there's still a high beta name, right?
That's the problem.
When you are in the situation where the market is not doesn't have
a clear direction i try not to you i try not to sell options on high beta names i stick with more
traditional big you know big techs uh where i'm i'm comfortable if i even if i own Meta or Tesla at a higher valuation,
I know that at some point in time, I will recover.
But I think 67, which has a nice little support level,
I feel like that might be a good support level
if we see a little bit of a downturn.
turn um but yeah 67 yeah yeah i mean 67 39 that i mean i'm just like drawing lines to see where
But yeah, 67, yeah.
where the most of the room i mean 67 is where i actually have my line as well
okay yeah that's exactly yeah just makes a lot of sense that's a massive pivot point back in february of 25 and uh there's a bit of a gap fill there as well
from way back in june of last year so that's definitely
i mean i mean robin hood was in uh robin hood launched their platinum card i don't know if
you saw that no i didn't actually they launched a new credit card, platinum credit card. I think the fee is $6.99. So they're
also expanding on the credit card business side. So I don't know how that impacts their business.
I don't follow Robinhood that closely either. Okay, I'll move on to the next one then. Next one is Coinbase. I think this is very interesting.
I've always found it really hard to do analysis on Coinbase because it just obviously ties in with Bitcoin price so much,
which I get, obviously, because it's Coinbase.
It makes a lot of sense, but it makes it really hard to trade
because obviously when you have the Bitcoin price going 24-7,
when the market opens, Coinbase could be any price i guess that makes it really attractive to some people but just not
not for me personally um i don't know if you're on the same boat or if you find something different
no i i i i don't trade coinbase either it's it's um it's a very very interesting it's like just the
swing of coinbase is so massive like you know you know, it was like trading at 441
and the stock price was down to like 139.
It's just the swing is crazy.
Yeah.
We had a bit of a breakout here.
I drew up on the, maybe the Wix.
That might be a bit better.
Yeah, so we've got a bit of a breakout here on the trend line.
I'll get rid of that one for now. So that's something something maybe we're coming back down to kind of retest this level maybe come
back down to i think last four weeks for coinbase has been pretty pretty good as well if you think
if you look at the weekly chart the last four weeks have been pretty good for coinbase
yeah i mean 140 up to two almost 200 that's that's200, that's not a short move, is it?
But again, that testifies to the amount of volatility that's actually in the stocks.
It's very hard to kind of stomach that, especially if you're a new investor or trader.
Yeah.
Very, very difficult.
I don't have much else to say on this, apart from obviously retesting and maybe moving higher.
Target price of around $260 would be really good.
But then if they drop down to fill that gap that will be interesting right because they had a little nice gap over the trend
line yeah well this one here yeah yeah maybe they come back down to fill that then yeah again too
dramatic two months off for me um let's move on uh next is uh uh the trading desk ttd oh wow
yeah this one continues continues to get beaten up um obviously it's had a last a good last week
going from well a good last week should i say in inverted commas from 25 up to kind of 30
so you know you've got a good 20 move there but if you just look at what's happened to it um in the last couple of years it's not i think uh um if if you remember the the era of amd
like for one straight year amd was like the advanced money destroyer yeah um i think trading
desks has been in that that kind of a run as well.
But I think with them launching a new news with tying up with OpenAI,
that might at least give the stock a little bit of a push.
That's why this is moving, is it?
Yeah, that's one of the reasons why it moved.
uh then that was news came out on thursday i believe wednesday or thursday something like that
Then that news came out on Thursday, I believe, Wednesday or Thursday, something like that.
um because i think even though if you look at the the the trading desk's um earnings report
this for the ceo you know automobile market and i think there's another market he said
was weaker but i think in general the amazon um um advertisement which is the DSP,
they have been gaining ground a lot.
And that is starting to show cracks in the TDD business.
But with open AI, if you start tying up with open AI,
that can at least change the narrative.
It's not that a company has lost customers or a company is doing worse, but
it's starting to show that there is legitimate competition from Amazon.
We've got the MACD kind of ticking up. RSI really, really pumped in the last couple of days,
as you can imagine, up to kind of 60 60 still plenty of room to go up to kind of
70s and 80s yeah i mean the stock is down 276 percent from its all-time highs of what not even
all-time highs actually just to fill the gap would you say 276 percent 82 dollars yeah because it
will be 112 dollars so there are two big gaps big gaps that was created with TTD, right?
So the stock was trading at $139, which is what?
367% up from here onwards.
But the two gaps, the first gap will be around the 200%,
which is like what?
Doubling from here, right?
That's the first gap.
And the second gap is even
above that.
Gaps galore, you can see on the screen
there.
For me, it'd have to get
above this trend line.
I'm not saying it's going to happen
in the next few weeks
or so, but those
are massive gaps.
Even if you wait for that,
even if the first case scenario breaks out,
so it comes back down every tear.
Correct.
That would be your ideal run-up, right?
Yeah.
If that does play out,
it's still a very handsome return.
If it, again, does play out over 100%,
and that's just in the first line. the first line but yeah a lot of things have
to go right for that to happen um so thank you money match for bringing up those stocks hood
coin and ttd um we'll move on to next is oss i think this is the one stop sync let's see what
that would do to do very well on the chart. This is a two-day chart.
I'll switch it back to the one-day chart.
This one is the first time we've had this stuff, I believe.
Yeah, let me see what they do.
One second.
So they are into designing, manufacturing, and market rugged, high-performance compute,
high-speed switch fabrics fabrics and storage systems for
edge applications for ai and machine learning sensor processing sensor fusion interesting and
they are a u.s based company in california 107 employees funny they were founded in 1998 it's not a new company it's it's it's been there it's
been there for a while yeah and the the revenue is around 18 million dollars
and eps is about 0.03 so three cents um very interesting how the volume's been going
Very interesting.
Let's see how the volume's been going.
Volume's definitely increased since the turn of the year, actually.
You can't see that because it's not on the screen.
There you go.
The volume's definitely increased, especially early on, of course,
which you'd expect with this high price action.
It's come down since, but still way above the volume it had in the last six months of last year
this um this area down here is a bit of an interesting area for me kind of seven dollars to 750 that sort of area um obviously we've very clearly broken this trend line um and we can't
quite get back up to it's kind of protecting off a level just below that um so perhaps if it gets
down to seven to 750 that might be an area of
interest for investors and traders i think i'd have to do a bit more due diligence um
i have mentioned what it does but still i have some i was doing quick digging around the net
income so they used to be net income positive until the last quarter was 2022 quarter three that's when they had a net income positive of
only 132 000 then they basically went negative all the way until the last quarter of quarter
three 2025 when they were actually up 263k in net income uh the free cash flow unfortunately
they're still burning through uh the last quarter they lost about they had a free cash flow of minus 3.72 million dollars so yeah but it's interesting the like
what turned around from a net income perspective right so that that's very interesting the revenue
actually jumped all the way from 14 million in quarter two to 18 million 18.78 million in
the previous quarter so almost a 4 million dollar
jump in revenue
something's happening
something's definitely happening yes
I've done what I normally do
and just draw a bunch of lines on the shelf
definitely more due diligence on this one
yeah I mean definitely more due diligence on this one.
Yeah, I mean, I'm now thinking about this sort of level here because obviously we do have this cloud,
the yellow one that's kind of flying through the screen there.
That's a mix of the 20 and the 50 million average.
So we're kind of sandwiched in between those.
But I'm now thinking about this wedge on the screen
that we see here, this triangle that I'm kind of edging.
If we trade within that and then make a breakout of this line or this line, that's when I'd be interested.
As I say, I'd have to do a bit more research, I think, on top of that.
But that's initially what I'm looking at, that wedge there.
Hopefully that helps you, Gary Goosens.
We haven't seen you for a while, actually.
Welcome back to the streams.
Hope you're doing well.
Hope your year has started nicely um yeah okay okay so that's all so but we can go talk about snow and
oracle because those were on the chart you wanted to look at it yeah so snow for me we spoke about
sas quite a bit throughout this whole this whole session really but the reason i wanted to bring this up is because i had this kind of zone drawn out and between 140 and 160 essentially and it's
kind of edging well it's actually bounced off of there almost three times in the last couple of
months now so is it finding support i'm not too sure um let's have a look at the weekly chart
i know you want to talk about snow but i'll keep it
brief no no no you go ahead i actually was i have not even been trading snow for a while now you can
i'm looking for a bit of interest in it don't you as well i'm looking at the weekly trend line which
i thought i had drawn on here but maybe i don't maybe it's white since i changed my chart um but
yeah you've got this this black one kind of coming through the screen here. And again, acting has really nice support.
So this area is a really good support of kind of confluence.
It's since gone up $20 since then.
So it's kind of hard to go from there.
But knowing where to enter now is going to be tricky, but just worth pointing out.
Okay.
What do you think?
I think, see, from a revenue standpoint were they had a revenue was up 30 percent uh the net
revenue retention was up at 25 sorry at 125 so i think the fundamental metrics are still there
it's improving but in general the the momentum behind the stock is not there. And that is generally driven by the whole SaaS,
you know, AI is going to eat SaaS lunch.
So until that narrative changes,
I don't see any of the stocks in SaaS space like making that turnaround.
So there might still be some pain in the short term.
Yeah, so since you were talking there,
I just drew this obviously trend line from across the
tops there um so kind of a broadened wedge um but a wedge nonetheless so until we break out
this wedge i think i'll leave it leave it as it is um okay we'll move on to oracle then last
top of the day yeah this one is really interesting for me because i've got this line similar to the snow chart
actually but it's a bit more dramatic. This is the weekly chart, we're jumping to the daily chart now.
So this trend line has been going down for quite some time since September of last year and just
showing signs of breaking out. Now it's not a breakout that I'm excited by because it's not,
you know, they're not big candles, not full-bodied candles which is what I really want to see and so perhaps actually I want to see some price action
like this if we move up you know somewhere maybe about 175 obviously we do have previous support
here and come back down to retest the volume profile which is here and then make a move up to kind of 195 to 200 plus
um that would be the ideal scenario for me and obviously the entry would be down here on the
retest and that'd be a nice return of just over 20 25 almost yeah um i work with a business though
they're very involved in a lot of things aren aren't they? However, there are two news, right, that kind of creates this uncertainty right around the earnings.
So one is that they will be laying off thousands of employees, right?
So there's going to be some percentage that because,
and that is being attributed to the fact that
because they have such a high cost on doing data center buildouts
for OpenAI that they need to lay off to basically save
costs. That's the narrative there. The second news that came out on Friday is that the OpenAI
and Oracle decided not to expand the Texas data center site. I think it's just that one
specific site that they are not planning to expand. Other sites are still in progress.
And I think that's where, during the earnings call,
people will be very interested to learn,
know what basically is happening on that front.
Because the whole reason Oracle stock ran up
is when they announced that they have a tie-up with OpenAI
and they'd be participating in this whole Stargate operation to build out data centers.
Because if you remember, the stock was pretty much in this range of $120 to $170.
And then we started seeing those massive run-up as started you know announcing their relationship with open ai and the stock basically ran up all the way to what 340 or something like that
at one point i'm surprised how volatile the stock is actually
yeah okay well that uh caps off a really good session i thought yeah i think um considering
how the markets are behaving, it's crazy.
Yeah, I think we said it earlier, it's a bit more of a stock pickers market in certain ways.
But obviously, be careful when you are doing that because some stocks are tied to certain industries that are not doing so well or likewise doing quite well.
So just be careful when you're out there trading.
trading but we don't need us to tell kind of tell you the basics there but it's nice to kind of
go back to basics and kind of ground yourself with what your thesis actually is when you're
trading and investing um yeah great session stay okay obviously massive thank you to wolf
the sq platform we really really appreciate it we will be back same time next week actually
1 p.m eastern time your clocks have gone forward my clocks haven't so it's a little bit earlier for me but that's okay oh really i thought you guys always go one week before us no so we're not doing
it for another three weeks so i've got three weeks of the stock market opening an hour earlier here
which actually it's not too bad it's quite exciting um it was nice to have really random time changes
i think we need to get rid of this daylight saving stuff.
It's just annoying.
You tell the farmers that, yeah.
Okay, well, thank you very much, everyone, for tuning in.
Obviously, MoneyManage, Verla, Justin, once again,
Guru Goosen is making a return as well.
So thank you very much for those comments.
We'll see you, no doubt, next week, 1 p.m. Eastern time.
Kay, any final words for the stream?
No, I think just be careful in the market,
and it's definitely a very tricky time for investors and traders.
Yeah, trade safe, everyone, and we'll see you next week.
See you later, Kay.
Take care.
