Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Trump Hype Fades? Sell-Off Slams Digital Dreams | Market Check
Recorded: March 28, 2025 Duration: 1:27:07Space Recording
Short Summary
In today's Market Check, the panel discussed significant trends affecting both traditional and crypto markets, highlighting a spike in the VIX, declines in major indices, and the impact of macroeconomic factors like the yen carry trade. With Bitcoin and Ethereum facing downward pressure, traders are advised to monitor key support levels and market sentiment closely.
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best daily YouTube live stream to talk about markets.
Welcome to my Friday crew.
I'm, of course, referring not just to my fellow panelists, but, of course, you, the audience.
Welcome, guys.
I always appreciate when you guys are here on Friday.
We usually have smaller crowds, so if you have something that you'd like us to take a look at
today, we probably got a decent shot of looking at it as long as it's not completely bottom of
the barrel. That's what I always have to preface when I say that I have to preface that by saying
that, of course. But yeah, welcome, guys. Happy Friday. I'm Tommy. You guys also
know me as Snorlax. I'm joined by Prometheus and Louis, Louis Friday today. But yeah, it seems like
we've got some blood in the streets on this fine Friday. I guess we'll have to see what transpires
over the weekend. And of course, next week, you've got the VIX up 10%, the S&P and the NASDAQ down about a percent and a half or more today.
We will discuss these things as well as our, of course, our coins.
And I see some recommendations for Chinese equities.
You know, I'm going to love to talk about something like that today.
But yeah, before we can do that, guys, I just took the opportunity to shout out the Friday crowd.
So don't let me down here, please.
Please hit the like button for us.
Maybe it's just a frustration like at the market.
Perfectly normal.
Do whatever you need to do to justify hitting it, though, for us.
We always are very appreciative when you do. And of course, you will help us appease the big tech overlords at YouTube and all of their algorithms that help our channel get boosted.
But yeah, we're going to have a great show for you all today.
And yeah, I might as well get into the markets now, right?
Bitcoin, it kind of happened over like Asia session, right?
We had just kind of Bitcoin and ETH take these huge nosedives on a five or 15 minute basis.
We really haven't gone that much deeper since those candles were put in.
So I guess we'll kind of see what the follow through potentially of this move looks like.
I think it was Louis that pointed it out on our Discord call this morning.
You have a lot of alts that are kind of just down between that six to 10% range this morning.
If you are a little bit of a range scalper,
I guess you're having a great time trading
some of this local volatility on altcoins here
over the last two or three weeks.
But we continue to wait for, I think,
the larger trending move, right?
Is it going to be kind of a continuation of the
last three or four months, or is it going to be potentially a squeeze with some of these altcoins?
You know, they were looking like they were, you know, forming some constructive uptrends. I still
think many of them do. But of course, then you look at things like ETH and Solana, they do need
a little bit of elbow grease here and a little bit of help from not just Bitcoin, but of course, equity markets, right? QQQ down about 2% today. The S&P down about 1.5% today.
Even the Dow Jones down about a percent and a quarter today. So yeah, we are seeing some
volatility in equities, mainly from the VIX spiking back above 20. We always kind of talk about how significant
that 20 level is on the VIX from a sentimental standpoint, from a technical standpoint,
from a positioning standpoint, which is always the most important, right? The VIX accepts above 20.
The next week could be very spicy. But of course, now that we are back above 20, you'll probably
see some bull sellers step in. I guess we'll see who's going to win this one, right?
And like I said, I think these things will probably more so be determined next week.
Maybe we get a hint on what's going to happen with equities here over the weekend with crypto.
I think that that is a very real possibility, especially now that yesterday or rather this morning was our Friday OPEX or
quarterly OPEX for crypto options. So I think we're going to have a little bit more freedom to
move here in crypto going forward. So, I mean, let's see if we start as soon as this weekend.
But yeah, let's talk about it, guys. Let's talk about, I mean, everything, right? Bitcoin, crypto, large cap tech equities, indices. We're going to have to talk about vol, maybe some forex. And of course, we also got some comments asking for Chinese equities. So I'd love to get into it, guys. How are we doing? What are we seeing in the markets?
to it guys how are we doing what are we seeing in the markets
doing great it's a beautiful i mean it's a beautiful friday it's always good when it's
friday you know we're coming to the end of the week things are closing uh you know are coming
to a closure uh headed into the weekend right um equity markets closed down and usually we get a
reduced volatility in uh crypto markets but sometimes that uh isn't the case you know
sometimes sunday sunday over the past few months has
shown some volatility, especially with Bitcoin around futures open. So it's important to keep
your eyes on that. Something I am eyeing is this quarterly close that we've kind of been talking
about. And what's been mentioned in the markets is the rebalancing effect that a lot of these funds are going to have to do going
into quarterly close. And they essentially are going to rebalance by their portfolios.
And that entails them buying back or not buying back, but buying a lot of equities. And so it's
really interesting going into the second to last day of the trading period for the quarter,
second to last day of the trading period for the quarter, we are getting the sell-off.
So it just really is kind of showing that these, you know, quote unquote, passive flows and
rebalancing effects are not as strong as what we may think. And that, you know, I think what's
really, really driving the markets is just the uncertainty in the broader, like kind of macro
environment, you know some
things that you've really got to pay attention to and we had pc come in today but that's kind
of what i'm seeing what's uh lou. It's a red day.
Yeah, it looks like...
Not for the VIX, but...
Yeah, not for the VIX.
Yeah, VIX line make bounce, you know?
Line make bounce.
And, you know, we're seeing pressure on markets as a whole today.
Right?
So, kind of got to see where this bounce takes us.
I wouldn't expect us to come back here.
Right.
But I'm not really a VIX expert.
I leave that to Tommy.
But I'd be looking in this general area.
Right.
And watch for reaction here.
Hopefully this is just a mean reversion bounce,
higher low into another, you know,
series of downward price action.
That's probably the best case scenario, in my opinion, right?
Make a higher low, lower high, I mean,
and then continue to drift downwards.
So yeah, this is obviously putting some pressure on equities and crypto today.
Crypto last night in the middle of the night looks like front ran the equities dump this morning.
And lucky us, we get another dump when equities actually do dump in the morning.
So we get double the fun, you know.
you know um discount double check i haven't heard that phrase in a very long time louis you just
Discount double check.
you just scratched like a part of my brain that has not been scratched in a long time
yeah so yeah that's like the you know the the good thing about being a crypto investor you get
you get to front run the dump and then you get
to dump again when the dump, when the equities dump actually happens. So it's always double the
fun, you know? Um, but, um, you know, uh, this is something I was stressing. If, if you guys
who I was watching today was watching yesterday, I was stressing that we needed to make a move on Bitcoin soon, right?
Bitcoin and ETH needed to make a move in order to keep this uptrend going, right? Or at least in the
near term and not give too much back. We were grinding into this longer term downtrend that
we're coming into. And we were holding nicely. We're holding the
high ground. Um, but we needed to, we needed to squeeze soon or this was eventually going to give
a lot of this move back. And that's what we're seeing this morning. Right. And that's why I was
stressing that, uh, yesterday, right. I was stressing that we needed to make a move soon,
you know, cause we're not going to hang, you know, at resistance for forever, right?
Something's going to give is either we're going to continue to squeeze, uh, and come back to our
range lows, or we were going to give some back, uh, and then probably, you know, put some basing
in down here. Um, and that's what we're seeing now. Right. So Bitcoin all in all, not horrible,
right? It's only like, we're only down like three or three something percent today, four percent,
right?
Still haven't given up any lows just yet.
I wouldn't be surprised if we at least ran one set of lows at this point.
We've come this far.
I wouldn't be surprised if we ran a low.
But I'd be looking to hold this white box.
I think that would be, you know, okay.
Uh, and that would allow us to put in a base and continue.
Um, cause you know, if we don't hold this white box, in my opinion, we were probably
going to come back down to here.
Right.
And we don't want to come back down here for a third time.
Right.
We've been here once.
We ran the low. We started
our climb. We start coming down here a third time. I think we're likely coming lower, right?
So for the overall health of Bitcoin, this is an end of the world, right? But I think we kind of
need to hold this area where we can run a low,
still kind of maintain the high ground on this liquidity level we've been stair-stepping beautifully on, and then go for a chance at breaking this downtrend. And that's what kind
of the bulls need, right? If you're a bull, that's what you're looking for and that's what you need.
So I'd watch for maybe one more push lower here and then watch for some sort of reaction,
whether it's a spring, right?
And a reclaim, but on the lower timeframe,
something like that.
But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised
if we got one more leg lower on Bitcoin.
And ETH, kind of same thing.
I was talking about ETH yesterday
that we needed to keep this stair step going
and we couldn't spend too much more time up here
with, you know, without this thing breaking down. Um, and we, we, it was either going to be a big
move up or a big move down and we got the big move down. So we're back to market structure,
right? We're back to prices seen 10 days ago, right? It's not the end of the world.
It's not the end of the world. It's not the end of the world.
It's frustrating, of course, right?
We're trying to get some constructive price action
out of ETH for once.
I've never actually seen something like this, right?
It's pretty insane that like,
like ETH can't run one high.
It hasn't, it really has not ran one significant high other than this reserve pump.
Um, in like two or three months, it's just, it can't even get like a decent mean reversion
bouncing. Um, and I mean, I, it's, it's just insane. It's, it's really insane, um, to see.
Um, but hopefully this is coming to an end. But again, we are, you know,
this is what bottoms kind of are, right? Like you make progress up and then you come back down,
right? Then you make progress up and then you come back down. It's always like two steps forward,
one step back and slowly, but surely you kind of grind higher. And over time, you, you know, you run out of sellers, right.
You run out of supply overhead.
But yeah, pretty much.
I think we probably hold this area, right.
I really don't think we make new lows on ETH.
If we do, it needs to be like a trap, right.
It can't be like sustained price action down here.
You start trading below 1700.
I got to be honest. ETH is not looking. It's like, it's cooked. It's cooked. That's kind of
like the line in the sand for me. Um, so we're kind of in, you know, we're, we're close to that
area. Right. But again, you gotta, you gotta give this time to figure out and put in a bottom,
right? Bottoms aren't always like a V, right? Like,
let's look at last time ETH had a big drop and, and, and put in a bottom, right? That was here.
That was here, right? Like this horrible. It's just like when you're in this and you're trying to catch the bottom or at least
just get some relief or get off the floor and you just trade sideways. This was four months,
right? This was August to November before we left this range, right? You know, this is what
bottoming ranges look like. This is reaccumulation. Now, I don't think we have
four months down here, right? I really don't. I mean, anything's possible, right? I mean,
I'm kind of saying that more basing on the cycles, but obviously we're kind of thrifting away from
those cycles and we're kind of coming into something completely different. I think that's very obvious at this point. However, as far as, you know, monetary cycles, presidential cycles, you know,
those are still very much real. Right. Um, so I don't think that we have four months to range
for ETH down here, uh, maybe a month, you know, maybe a couple of weeks more, right. We've only been down here for
20 days, right. We've only been down here for 20 days. So compared to last time, not much,
right. Not much. And people are already giving up and people have already given up, you know? So,
um, I really don't think we have four months down here. But at this point, since we didn't squeeze and continue moving up yesterday
and we came back down, we might have a little longer down here now.
Unless we get a miraculous squeeze back to the upside
and this was just a rinse of the longs that built up on this climb,
rinse the longs, and then you see a nice big reversal.
That's always a possibility. But I'm not going to bet on that, right? Instead,
at this point, we had our shot, we lost our, our upwards, uh, rising demand. Um, now we probably
have to base in here a little bit, but I'll be watching how we react down here. You know,
we swept these lows, but we still got some more lows here. So again, similar to Bitcoin, maybe one more stab lower and then we see how we react,
right? But if you do come this low, you want to see a big reaction down here, right? You don't
want to hang out down here too long. If you want to see ETH and Bitcoin and altcoins bottom here anytime in the near future?
Yeah, I think for me, the way I'm viewing ETH at the moment is pretty similar, right?
Well, at the very least, I've kind of been wondering when this thing is going to rally,
not because I'm a huge ETH bull, but because I think it provides signal and clarity for altcoins,
which there are a few of them that have kind of been grinding up,
whether that's going to be for a squeeze,
whether that's going to be for extended trends that can vary based on the
asset, I think.
But from a technical standpoint, you have, I think the,
the right idea, Louis, as far as like the levels that you've marked out,
like, I mean, we have to hold above 1825, 1850, or else ETH is probably going to take a nosedive.
And at that point, I'm going to have to assume that equities have also, you know, not given us a rally into next week,
like I was kind of expecting and that they're going to continue to drop lower.
But I will say that's not really the camp that i'm in at the moment uh i i still think that you're going to
see eath probably hold this level at least on this go uh i think we'll revisit that point later
uh throughout this year but uh i do think in the in the interim in the near term it makes more
sense to me that we see eath hold and maybe over the next two weeks or so, put some sort of squeeze in. But that is going to be,
as we can see, very dependent on what equity markets are doing. We're down a percent and a
half to 2% at the moment across the board for the S&P and the NASDAQ. So if they don't bounce,
I wouldn't really be expecting ETH and Bitcoin to bounce either.
Structurally, you can look at I've already seen some people make the parallels on X of how similar the S&P, for example, looks to 2022. I don't know if I think it's going to play out exactly the same as 2022 did personally.
But I mean, I'm going to continue to kind of say this.
But I mean, I'm going to continue to kind of say this.
I think the price action that we are seeing in crypto is very familiar of that of the bear market.
It feels less like a bottom to me and more like a short term.
I mean, maybe you're just going to try to play a counter trend rally.
That's my goal at the moment is to be prospecting low cost of capital counter trend rallies in crypto. But I do think on a general level, some things are going to have to change in the macro regime for me to get more strongly than ETH, but unfortunately, the crypto tail is very much wagged by Bitcoin at the end of the day.
And Bitcoin is now wagged by TradFi.
So if you're wondering why we're seeing the price action that we're seeing today, again, you are indirectly or basically just directly at this point trading equity markets since the Bitcoin ETF.
Yeah, I tend to agree. And I mean, the kind of inspiration that I had for my short quantum trade was built around the kind of wedge that the S&P and the ES was showing up at the highs, right?
And I was kind of eyeing that 2021, you know, December 2021 high to beginning of 22 price action behavior.
Now, do I think we resolve in the manner and the fashion in which we did?
in the manner and the fashion in which we did.
A lot of that's going to be determined on how growth is over the next 12 months.
You know, we're seeing a lot of consumer discretionaries like Lululemon, for instance, they had earnings yesterday and they reported some like really, really bad guidance, you know, and we had Nike, for instance, same as well, consumer discretionary.
Nike revised down and was like, you know, to literally the low end and was barely able to beat, you know.
So I am kind of curious and eyeing a lot of these stocks and the earnings and the guidance that they're giving and kind of watching to see if this slowdown in growth is, you know, coming to fruition, right? Because as we
all know, I mean, tariffs haven't even necessarily hit yet. So if we're starting to get a slowdown
and tariffs really do impact, you know, industry and sectors across the board, what further impact
is that going to have on the broader markets, right? I am still very much eyeing a 2018-esque style price action.
And that's kind of what I've been, you know, eyeing for the S&P.
And I still kind of am hanging my hat on that and the way volatility is behaving.
I think potentially we get, you know, one more significant stab down, but that is
probably your, your, uh, your low for a significant period of time. So just really,
really keeping my eye on that. And, you know, Bitcoin right now is at a key level, like Bitcoin.
I think if we lose where we're at right now like if you lose on bitcoin
this 84 this 84 you know two level you know we go a little bit lower down you know if we go below
like 83 8 around there 83 6 83 7 then you're at, you know, big risk of, of water falling pretty, pretty fast, um,
and kind of rating, rating all those lows. So you do want to keep your eye on that, right? That's
all liquidity, uh, that's been stacked up. And if you, you know, come down much further, it's,
it's probably going to waterfall pretty quickly, but if that move does occur, you know, it's,
it's happens rather quick and I would expect it to be, you know, some does occur, you know, it's, it's happens rather quick and I would expect
it to be, you know, some form of, you know, significant bottom, whether that leads into
some form of complacency shoulder or to new all time highs or, you know, is to be determined. But
this, we are at very, very important levels, you know, and like Tommy was saying,
the behavior of the market is very fascinating. We have been essentially, Bitcoin's been trading largely sideways, slowly grinding
higher for the past two weeks. And alts have just been bludgeoned largely across the board
for the majority of the time. You've had very few
that have been able to outpace Bitcoin and Ethereum and actually see some underlying bid.
But yeah, man, it's a wild world out there. It's a wild, wild west, that's for sure.
I think you hit the nail on the head for me, Dias. I really agree with your macro outlook at the moment that, I mean, we basically retraced the election exuberance. We haven't really priced in any of the negative growth that's first one to two months of tariffs being issued. But I share a very
similar outlook for the first half of this year, right? It's probably going to be a trader's market
still. I'm expecting probably another leg down across all markets at some point before the
summer. I think it's going to be difficult to time, of course. But when you kind of look at
the seasonality of unemployment data as well this
is something that i was uh i thought was pretty interesting right um who what how do you say his
name nick timmy the the guy who's supposed to speak to the fed i don't know how to say his last
name uh but he posted a really i thought interesting chart kind of talking about
unemployment data that you typically see unemployment rise the most in
Q4, actually. So I don't expect anything per se to truly break. If it is going to happen,
it's likely to be at the very end of this year. But I think at the very least, this first half
of the year, it's probably going to remain a trader's market. There's going to be opportunities
to play some pretty significant
bounces on risk, given the way that some of these assets have been beaten down. But I think in
between that as well, you're probably going to get a pretty nice leg down to play, which I mean,
to me, it's just like what I just said is a lot of volatility. So if you like to trade, if you like
to capitalize on significant amounts of it, you're going to have a lot of opportunity
to do so this year. Of course, don't size like a dickhead, but you don't want to blow
yourself up on any super volatile move, but I do think there's going to be a lot of opportunity
to make money this year.
if we lose 84k what's a good spot to bid there's a ton of support down there
um i mean i'd probably say the lows on bitcoin would probably hold on a retest
right that like 75 to 78k territory if we do get down there i would expect them to hold
if we go higher before we
visit those levels which right now is kind of how i'm viewing the market i'm not intending to bid
that level though uh i would probably be looking to bid lower but i'm not sure what i would say to
that if that were the case so if you go higher first you think we're going to come lower afterwards
so if we go higher first, you think we're going to come lower afterwards?
Yes. I think that I really feel as though we're seeing some high timeframe
trends have shifted.
But that's not to say that there's not some really juicy bounces to play,
which has really been my priority over the last few weeks.
Yeah. That's just, at this point, that's probably,
that's just the safe way to play it
you know um and then worst comes to worst if you know you gotta reallocate reallocate it's just
the market's just been you know it's just been brutal you know trying people trying to uh you
know catch the bottom call the bottom it's been tough you know um but yeah if we if bitcoin loses 84
um you know like if we lose this area you're probably coming somewhere in here yeah 77 to 80
um but yeah and if you look at the daily chart too i mean and you look at the daily chart too, I mean, and you look at those daily candles, it is just showing, you know, when you have candles like that just stacked up on one another, that's just indicative of like tunnel liquidity, you know, tunnel liquidity is just waiting to get.
And that's kind of why I've been saying like this thing needs to like separate, you know, it needs to kind of get extension away from this in order to not you know
what i mean that's why i was so adamant on like this has to happen soon or else you know you're
coming for this you know it's very obvious um and this is like what a lot of alts look like right
now you know a lot of them are doing this and now they're coming back and doing this i mean this
could be like you're you're bottoming for alts right alts do this
roll over you kind of make a double bottom maybe you sweep the low whatever and then and then you
maybe you make you get the big bounce versus off of this you know you know this actually makes more
sense right this makes more sense so yeah and you're just counting out the market is yet but
no i'm not either i'm not either too and i just want to clarify it's like
it is important to call it for what it is we just aren't in the environment where all
are really able to thrive you know we just need some form of clarity from the macro perspective
and and then you are able to enter into you know more risk on environment where people are more
uh and you know incentivized to bid but just the market's a little scared right now you know, more risk on environment where people are more, uh, you know, incentivized to
bid, but just the market's a little scared right now. You know, there's, it just is what it is.
You gotta, you know, when it's green, you gotta say it's green. And when it's red, you gotta say
it's red. But I just, I think it's important to, like Tommy said, it's very much a trader's market.
You gotta be agile. You gotta be quick on your feet right now in these markets. And
most important is like, you don't want to be backholding. You know, it's, if you get some decent returns, you know,
take some profit off the board, take your initials and, and then look to reallocate when
we see some form of, you know, environment or, or just from a timeframe perspective, that's,
that's a little bit more conducive for things
to run because right now they aren't you know it's just it's just very much been a sideways
grindy price action and and to find out performers has been very very hard you know in the discord
we've been calling kta and based fart coin and both of those have just been an absolute
you know warriors in this market and you know been an absolute blessing with know, warriors in this market and, you know, been an absolute blessing
with what's, what's been going on. So it's, it's, it's been nice to have something like that, but
it's, it's very difficult for, to find plays like that in environments like this, but it's also
very hard, even for the strongest of the names to continue to outperform against broader market trends.
And so I just want to see from if I'm bullish here, which I am very much on the fence,
I could go either way with the markets right now, genuinely.
And I think that it's important to understand from a bullish perspective, you just want
clarity in regards to tariffs. You want Japan to not liquidate themselves again.
And you want, you know, you want growth and earnings to continue
to to actually start to look better than what they've been looking like.
So just some things that I'm looking for.
And then you probably start to get that, you know,
big compression on volatility, which would bring on volatility which would bring some which would bring some
uh which would allow some of the bigger players to put some risk back on onto the table so that's
kind of what i'm watching out for but in a bearish sense it's like you really watch for that like 74k
region uh is what i'm eyeing if we do come back down into there and we get one more big expansion on
goal,
but I think that does mark a significant low and this probably occurs,
you know,
sometime in June.
So just kind of keep my eyes out for it.
Yeah.
I'm,
I mean, this kind of looks interesting
this kind of i just realized i was muted um i was talking to myself for like 10 seconds i was like
i mentioned vol and tommy didn't say anything what's happening i was i was gonna say there
are a lot of things that are probably gonna to put pressure on market liquidity until the summer.
And this is something that I was texting Prometheus about yesterday.
I mean, obviously, everybody knows about you're increasingly going to hear about all of that debt maturing over as far as Treasury bonds go into like June and July.
There's going to be a lot of FUD around that.
They're going to have to finance it, pulling liquidity from somewhere. But then on top of that, I really
think you're going to continue to see this yen carry trade unwind. Remember that guys? I mean,
nobody has talked about it really outside of the BOJ announcements. They're paying attention,
but they're not really paying attention, right? Because when you look at the USDJPY, I think we all agree that we are set to see the dollar come down materially. But
how ironic would it be if that actually causes kind of a negative pressure to risk assets?
And I mean, obviously, we all expected those correlations to be positive. But as the dollar
comes down and the yen appreciates, you're going to see stress on the yen carry trade,
which will have stress on market liquidity. And I think everybody should be paying attention to
it, quite frankly. And there's a trade there. If you can figure it out, I've kind of placed some
bets privately through our Discord. But yeah, I mean, I think there's going to be a lot of
opportunity, even if you're kind of uncertain as far as like what the pricing of your favorite assets are
going to do. There's going to be a lot of volatility in Forex markets this year,
like a lot of opportunities that you can take advantage of if you can find, I think,
the right instrument to be able to capitalize on them. But I'll leave it at that. I do think
that we're going to continue to see that yen carry trade unwind though. You're probably going to see the treasury debt
hurt market liquidity as well. And then I think in the summer, we'll be at a crossroads, right?
What's the Fed going to do? I guess we'll have to find out. But for me, I think that those things
will probably, this like illiquid slop that we've seen over the last few
weeks. It's absolutely awful. I agree. It's probably going to continue. I just hope that it
manifests into a little bit more than kind of like these coiled ranges that we've been in.
I think a lot of it has to do with what what Vol is going to do. Prometheus was talking about it a
little bit. We were looking at the chart a little bit earlier. If you look at something like the VIX, right, is it going to be a regime close to 2022,
right, where we kind of just continuously spiked into 25 to 30 and then sold off? We never really
blew out above 30. And I've consistently said, I don't really think that this vol regime is
similar to 2022. And so I think for that reason, I'm, I'm actually
expecting the VIX to trend lower into next week. Maybe I'm completely wrong on that. Um, but I
think that you are less likely to see VIX price action like 2022, to be honest, I think it's
going to be probably a bit more interesting. Um, maybe a bit more opportunities for upside if you if you like
to play volatility um but with that said i think this is kind of a natural spot for the
to reject if that's going to be the case yeah hopefully 100 agree yeah Hopefully. 100% agree. Yeah. Here. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
I've been eyeing that like 22 region personally is as the level to, to see some form of compression
there afterwards.
And, you know, I've been posting a lot of, a lot on my timeline about the VIX.
I feel like I'm just like reiterating myself a thousand times. But really watching that 2018
to 2019 fractal, which then headed into COVID, when you get the majority of the market piling
into the long vol trade and taking hedges, that's not usually indicative of some big systemic event happening thereafter.
Usually what happens is you see some big compression and the big blowouts that we see
are when everyone is not positioned in the long ball trade. That is not, you know, usually, usually what happens
if history is indicative of, you know, of anything, right? If you look at the VIX chart,
every time we've had a big blowout, it's been at the lows when we're near, you know, 11 to 12.
You know, it's never been when the market has, you know, all been positioned
long vol and we're up at, you know, 20 some odd dollars except for 08. That is the only time
that that has ever occurred. But you had a heightened vol uh, through in the entirety of, uh, 07 through 08 through September of 07
to September of 08. And then you had a big blowout. So, you know, it often takes usually
12, 12 months for anything to really ensue there afterwards. So I, I'm not very,
I'm not in the camp that anything is going to happen imminently.
I've been talking about, you know, in the discord,
my thoughts around the trade, you know,
and what I'm going to be positioning in next year.
I still think next year is the timeframe for something to really happen on the,
you know, big uh event
i uh i like that you brought up the fact that you really only see the blowout at the end
right the yen carry trade was kind of like an anomaly to be honest um in positioning
i mean yes we got a spike on the vix to like 60, but relative to that sort of move,
you would have expected a much larger move on something like individual name.
I'm sure you could find some other good ones, but like indexes in general should have sold
off a lot harder for a spike into 65.
Maybe we get one, maybe we don't.
But again, I think that's something that you see at the tail end
of a market trend rather than, you know,
just kind of consistently trading up there.
I think it really is going to be so interesting to me.
I keep asking myself this question, like, what regime are we in?
Where are we in the market cycle?
Because that's what everybody wants to kind of ask. Like, where in the cycle are we in where are we in the market cycle because that's what everybody wants
to kind of ask like where in the cycle are we right so that i can just kind of hold assets
without fear of worrying about where we are in the market cycle but i think there are really just so
many different paths that this could take from here it could be 2018 2018. It could be 2007. Maybe it's another year that we're not
really taking into too much account, right? Maybe like a 2015. Who knows? But I do think that we're
hopefully going to have quite a few questions answered here over the next few months, not just
from vol, but also from indices and hopefully for crypto also, because there's nothing better than
clarity. But I guess that's kind of like a catch 22, because when you have clarity in markets,
you usually don't. Yeah. And I mean, I was thinking about that the other day. And
you know, it's so funny that, you know, me personally and probably a majority of the people that are in, you know, here listening, I started my trading journey, you know, back in 2020.
And, you know, I entered these markets and probably we all entered these markets and we're really starting, you know, because we're all, you know, we're all very young, you know, we started our trading journey in arguably one of
the most difficult times in regards to being an active trader in the markets, right? I was looking
at, you know, 2012 to 2015. And I mean, could you imagine how easy it would have been being a trader in 2012 to 2015?
You would literally just, I mean, it just went straight up in a straight line to the right.
You had like, you know, few percent pullbacks along the way.
And that was it.
You know, and I'm talking broader markets, you know, and all you would have done is just short puts on majors, you know,
on like Google and Microsoft. And that would have been it, you know, where now we're entering
a phase in the market where there are, you know, so many, so many different dynamics that you have
to take into account, just like Tommy was saying. And there's a lot to weigh. That's what
we're here for. We're trying to make sense of the noise because there's a lot of noise in the
markets, especially nowadays. And I think that I would be very shocked if the United States allows, if the U.S. government allows some big blowout with the Japan carry
trade. I'm sure that there will be some form of, you know, monetary or fiscal stimulus that will
probably come down the pipeline if there is a threat, you know, if there is a risk you know if there is a a risk of you know a blowout in the yen carry trade
so i'm pretty sure what happened in the you know the big vol expansionary blowout that we had was
the united i think the janet yellen was in talks with the Japanese government on allowing them to, you know, on like buying out their treasuries from them.
So like instead of them offloading them into the open market, Janet Yellen would just like buy, just buy out all the treasuries that they're wanting to exit from.
So I think it's important too, like I said,
it's like there's a lot of noise and it's important to remain objective
and it's important to remain analytical with what's occurring on in the markets
because it's really easy to get wrapped up in a lot of the emotions that's
occurring. But I just like I think, like I said earlier, I think that you, you know, remain
agile, you remain a little skeptical right now. And if you see some clarity occur in the broader
markets, then you start to get some more risk on signals and then you deploy some capital.
But right now I'm remaining a little skeptical of the markets right now, personally.
I think we should look at some of the...
I completely agree, Prometheus.
I think we should start to look at some of the chat suggestions as well
to continue to, I think think add to this picture. I know we've
got, I know we had some past
requests
for Chinese equities. We've got some
requests right now for USDT dominance.
Let's see, what else did I miss?
But I think that those are things
that we should probably look at as well.
We got a request for Trump.
Bob on radium.
I remember I was looking for a head and shoulders back here.
That was a while ago.
I still think Baba looks fine. Whenever US equities have a
little bit of room to breathe, you're probably going to see China. At least in theory, you should
be seeing China begin its next leg up. While US equities pull back?
More so when they finally can find a bounce. Because what's happening is they're flat to
catching a bid in asia
session but u.s equity markets when we're selling off they just can't find their footing right
because no nothing is going to be spared when everything is kind of selling during u.s session
yeah i mean yeah it would make sense to maybe pull back to this level. Yeah, I like that level.
My only fear with China, and it's something that, you know,
I'm obviously pretty long China right now, but I'm acknowledging this,
is what if this is like an echo bubble for China before the real bull market?
It's something that I am not completely ignoring,
but I still think the setups here favor being long.
Yeah, absolutely.
I mean, from a chart perspective, the chart looks unbelievable,
both Billy and Baba.
And I was looking at the Hang Seng too.
I mean, yeah, the charts look really, really good.
Yeah, I think Baba could give some good signal, right?
Like if it holds here you're fine
but if you start doing this you know you're probably like and then you do more ranging
and then you go for the real move later on like tommy was just talking about
billy too i like billy. Billy looks really good so far.
Like I really love this base.
This is a nice base.
You got a nice, you know, price pin, like price is really pinching in here.
So I think there's a big move coming for sure.
Yeah.
It looks like an altcoin that went through a bull market,
has gone through a bear market,
and now is ready to go for a new cycle.
But the question is, is this enough time
or does this need to do this one more time and then go, right?
That's pretty much what it comes down to.
Or is it ready and then it's going to pop?
But I think we find out soon, probably within the next month.
This comes into August.
Yes, maybe probably the next two months.
We'll probably have a better picture on if these moves you've been seeing in China are legit.
I agree.
Or are we at one time?
You know what that chart reminds me of?
It's Abe.
Yeah, a little bit. It reminds me a lot of Solana.
Yeah.
I mean, this is
beautiful. I love
charts like this.
You get a chance to accumulate in a
nice bottoming range with
tons of upside, but
invalidation not too far below.
It's a great setup.
I love this. Lots of of room to run too. You know, this thing can come to 40, 50 bucks minimum. You know,
if this thing breaks out probably even higher, you know, maybe even up in here, 80, 90, you know,
first major market structure other than here, you know? So the risk reward is there.
Just depends if it's going to happen now or later.
I think we'll find out in the next month or two.
Got a request for NIO, which I'll be honest,
my conviction on NIO is much, much lower than the others.
I mean, the company is kind of a fraud, even though I own some.
It hasn't really stopped me from buying crypto stocks, or not crypto stocks, but crypto coins,
tokens in the past.
But I mean, I know what NIO is, right? It's a scam. But I think it's obviously a more speculative way of buying Chinese equities.
And so I think for that reason, you would, I mean, you'd much rather invest in something like Bamba and Billy more heavily.
But I do think, you know, if the whole sector is going to run, then obviously you're going to see NIO run with it.
Yeah.
Like Baba and Billy are way farther along in this chart.
And I think they just got that.
It probably looked like it was good to start curling up.
And then they got the tariff news, right?
On like cars, on the aluminum or whatever,
on the car parts or something.
I don't know.
I can't keep up with all this nonsense.
But yeah, this thing looked like it had promised
to probably start carving out a bottom here
and curling at this level.
But got bad news.
And now it's coming further.
So you're probably going to come down to here at this point.
You know, like $2, $2.22.
And this is like the bottom of the barrel bidding range
if you want to take a shot, you know.
But, yeah, I don't know.
I don't know anything about the company or anything like that.
One stock that I'm really bullish on or not really stock for the company is byd i don't
know if you guys have seen chinese electric cars um they are insane um should i pivot to byd
be if you look up byd cars they they literally make Teslas look like a joke.
That looks like Bitcoin.
Yeah.
That looks like Bitcoin coming out of that seven-month range.
Oh, yeah, it does.
Yeah, their cars are insane.
You can't even trade this, though.
This is on the...
Can you?
No, you can't.
It's on like...
I think it's like Chinese only.
Yeah.
HKEX.
HKEX.
What else did we want to look at?
We did get a request for USDT dominance and also Trump.
So we should probably look at those.
All right.
I'll do Trump, but I don't have a chart for USDT dominance.
I don't know if you guys have one, but...
I don't really trade it, to be honest.
Yeah.
Not that I think it's not useful.
I just don't...
It's just not really a chart that I use.
Yeah.
So Trump's been pretty much trading sideways for like 20 something days now
after being in a perpetual downtrend for like a month or two,
making consistent lower lows constantly for about a month and a half,
two months.
and now we were starting to trade sideways, right?
So for now we haven't made new lows in about 20 days.
and you know,
this area,
right.
You know, I think is a great spot for a potential bottom, right.
You know, the, the trend is showing a shift from lower, low after lower, low to, you know,
sideways at a minimum, you know, slightly higher highs, but now we're losing that.
So not yet, but more, more or less sideways, right.
So I'm really looking at this as more or less a range down here on the lower time frame
um if you really want to get granular with it
right you want to reclaim this three hour local range right get back inside and then you want to start to see a
climb right but until we break this low time frame range we're probably going to remain side
base right but i think it's a great opportunity like this general area i think is a good spot to
buy right you start losing this low all right maybe not right but until then you know you're
okay right you're okay um so like You're okay. Um, so like right
now I'm looking at this as a potential one more deviation of the low. Right. Um, but
it needs to probably reclaim this, you know, but higher timeframe.
Yeah. You have to break these highs in order to get anything going here.
But I like the shift in trend from down to sideways.
I like that, you know, that the sentiment on this thing is down in the dumps.
I just like setups like this.
So, but yeah, I mean, this range high needs to get broken.
So once you're, you can get above this level, right above, I mean, this range high needs to get broken. So once you're,
you can get above this level, right above, that'd be like 1250. I think you have confirmation that
you're coming up here at a minimum, right? And then we see if you could stair-step it back to
these levels, right? Not seen since February, right? So only a month ago,
but this is kind of my base case, right?
Just this either a big move or just a slow rounding bottom grind back to the
upside.
if this thing isn't a complete scam and it's going to go to zero,
right?
There's still a chance it can,
right?
There's still a chance it can,
but I think it's in a good enough area where it's worth the risk reward to
start taking shots down here,
in my opinion.
So that's what I'm doing.
Yeah, like you said, I think the chart is, you know,
pretty decent RR here.
It needs to hold either, man,
or it's just going to be another like meme coin story that just goes down
only perpetually.
Yeah, I would agree with that
so i'm watching closely watching closely
i almost wonder if this is going to trade like doge uh because i know there's been a lot of
comparisons to the trump run up versus doge in 2021 if you were to just kind of like compare the two right
doge gave you some nice bounces i think we're at the part where you're we're probably going to see
trump bounce um i'm increasingly skeptical that it's going to give like a huge move
higher but i do think like 100 to 150 percent from current prices definitely possible if you're
going to hold these levels uh it's just so difficult playing these solana meme coins
because after their parabolic run up you try to catch a knife like maybe you catch a squeeze but
it's just they go down only man that's the one thing that i'm like i really don't like about this token is that it's on soul
i'd like it so much it wasn't
you just don't want it to be like bonk you know um or boden yeah oh my boden oh my god
or goat i've seen the goat chart.
I haven't looked at goat in a long time.
I think that was a coin that I was on.
I was at a friend's wedding that weekend,
completely like away from screens and I just missed the trade.
So I have coped by just not looking at the chart.
Yeah.
I think it,
what it hit over a,
yeah.
1.3 bill. I think it hit over a 1.3
bill. I think it's at 50 mil now.
Oh my gosh.
Yeah.
That's what's left of it.
Was that like 200k market cap?
2 mil?
Something like that.
But if one of you can take it for the usdt that'd be appreciated i gotta
i just i don't like to share my screen right now because i still got like this big brace
on the hand that i use to scroll through charts yeah yeah yeah let's i'm not that proficient yet hopefully when i get my wrist up my wrist back in
like two three weeks they took it from you now on my wrist yeah it's gone
it's gone and i'm never getting it back um yeah let me share my screen for you guys
Yeah, let me share my screen for you guys.
It's funny because my back is like, I don't really feel that much pain, but I can definitely
tell where the vertebrae were like, got messed up because it's just, it's like an acute feeling
of just, I don't even know how to describe it.
Honestly, it's like, I, it's not even sore.
It's just, i literally can't even
describe it but i can feel the area that got injured healing if that makes sense
okay let me know
i will say i've been kind of like taken aback at you're on the screen from me.
I've been taken aback at how much like muscle atrophy I've had in my leg.
It's wild.
It is wild.
But you'll get it back.
That's the thing.
It's once you stimulate your muscles again, you'll you'll be able to get it back.
And I know you as soon as you're able to like get in the gym you're gonna go crazy be an
absolute maniac oh i i cannot wait you you have no idea how much i am missing going to the gym
every day but i mean so all right so we're on usdt dominance um i mean i'm watching the same
thing that everybody else is you got some you some major levels on the chart that you want to see us reject from.
Like Tommy was saying, I don't necessarily see as much alpha in USDT dominance as it maybe had in previous cycles.
And the reason for that is due to the increased correlation that
we have to the broader markets. I think that as people, as smart money and institutional money
starts to pile in and has continued to pile into these markets more and more and more and more,
more. I think stable coins become less, they lose their, I think the USDT dominance chart
I think stable coins become less...
loses its edge in a way. I get what everybody's thesis is on USDT dominance, less people in
tether means more people in the markets, yada, yada, yada. But you also have to understand where
the flows are coming from nowadays. A lot of of the flows and like i've talked about on previous spaces i've talked about here
on market check before has largely been driven by uh institutions this cycle now how do we know that
because of price action behavior of bitcoin versus the broader market or the broader crypto
market. You've had Bitcoin make significant new highs where the rest of the market is not.
And as we know, the institutions are largely based in Bitcoin and a little bit in Ethereum
and a little bit in Solana, and they're not positioned in the rest of the market. And retail has not been able to drive prices higher in the rest of the majors,
right? Ethereum hasn't made new all-time high. Solana hasn't made necessarily a new all-time
high. I don't count Solana's wick of its high as a new all-time high. New all-time high is significant price discovery.
And so because of that, I don't see a chart of stable coins being alpha in the sense that it
shows whether or not participants are actually in know, actually in these markets or not,
because what has been the driver of the markets?
It has not been retail.
It has been institutions, as we know.
So this chart, you know, I get why everybody's looking at it.
I have different viewpoint on it.
And if you are looking at this chart as alpha you know it's from a charting
perspective this trend line that everybody's watching is a must hold like or a must like
you must see this not break back above um you know because then if you do see us break back above, then you probably see, you know, us go for 6.3 to 6.5% rather
quickly. Um, so you want to see us, you know, reject from here, you know, or if anything,
you want to, want to see us rate that wick high and then come down from it. Right. You know,
that wick high and then come down from it right you know you want to see this be the the resistance
for for the price action uh down and then come back down but that's kind of what i'm watching
on that i uh i get why everybody looks at it but it's not necessarily the alpha that I choose.
Can we discuss Fartcoin?
Yeah, we can discuss Fartcoin.
Fartcoin looks great, guys. I think Fartcoin is a chart that has been a sleeper.
Not really a sleeper now, but it was a sleeper at the lows you know back back at the beginning of the
month you you saw it really start to garner some some mind share across the broader market you saw
you know a huge level hold and now what we're doing is we're coming back and we're retesting
we retested this really heavy supply overhead what you want to see hold is you want to see this 45 cent region hold.
This is a really key level on the chart. We likely had people that, you know, accumulated
down here, take some profits back up here. And you want to see these newer holders that bought,
you know, up on this wick, continue to accumulate at these levels and probably see us round out somewhere down here
around the 45 cent region I'm really watching for these levels and if you can round out around these
levels you know around the 45 cent level then you know we probably start to grind up back up into the supply region. And you then are looking for some large expansionary move
to the upside. Next stop is $1.13. We come into that level and you watch out for that.
You could say the 80 cent level does have some resistance, but I would be shocked if that's all she gives, you know, because
what happened was everybody that accumulated down here took profits at this, you know,
major resistance level. And then now what people are doing is then reaccumulating down here. People
are then going to target the 80 cent level
you probably come back down you know low 70s maybe mid 60s and then you know work your way back up
so i think high time frame target on far coin you can absolutely target the the dollar dollar ten uh
ten cent region dollar ten cent region and uh as you know a high time high time frame price target
you know because everybody wants us to go straight up in a straight line as we know that's not how
price uh how markets behave and how price action works so we got out you know some people took
profits here want to reaccumulate here People that accumulate here are going to probably take profits here.
Another reaccumulate, people take more profits here.
But the chart looks really good, and it's garnering a lot of mindshare in the markets right now.
So I like what it's showing.
It's showing a lot of strength across the market.
So I love to see it.
Let's see here.
Are we cooked? I don't think we're cooked. I think the market just needs some
clarity right now. Um, I think we're at levels where if kind of some of the leading alt coins
want to continue trending, they're going to need to hold, right? Like far coin, like a Sonic.
Uh, I'm sure you could pinpoint some others, but those have really been the strongest ones On my watch list
In theory if we're going to be
If they're going to continue to trend higher
These are levels where they need to be holding
Or else they're going to start to
Threaten round tripping their entire pumps
Yeah I agree
I'm in the same boat
You're at a key level
Key inflection point across the board
There's some Major levels same boat i mean you're at a key level and clean key inflection point across the board um you know
there's some major levels this is sonic previously ftm but like you know these levels you you gotta
see stuff like this hold um and you really don't want to see sonic honestly if i'm being real
you probably don't want to see us lose this 50 cent region you know it would look really bad
if it loses 50 cents yeah uh you know you want to see you want to see that hold you know that is
your like kind of do or die level but i mean it's the same as like solana like if we look at solana
for instance right like solana has to hold $1.20.
Like it is the most important level on the chart.
It's the equivalent for me of BNB at when BNB was at like the $2.20 level.
When we were down here and everybody's like, BNB is about to blow up.
CZ is going to jail. jail you know ftx 2.0
um i salon is the same thing you know salon is like 120 level is that 220 level for bnb back in
the day and i think if we do hold it and we are able to base out here get some uh clarity get some
get some clarity, have growth continue to do well in equities and Japan doesn't blow themselves up,
then...
I think that's inevitable.
Yeah, I mean...
That last one, at least.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I get it. I get where you're coming from.
But you know that Janet Yellen is going to backdoor QE the crap out of that you know she's gonna step in with the iron fist but yellen's not at the wheel anymore
well who's who's at the wheel now it's uh it's percent i i'm gonna stick to my guns though
that at the bottom of this uh at some point the bottom of the next bear market, Janet Yellen is going to go to prison.
Or at the very least, be charged for treasury fraud, probably.
Bribery, yeah.
We all know they're getting hoved money underneath the table.
We lost the 130 level on Solana.
I would have loved for us to reclaim that.
You probably want us to turn this into some form of head and shoulders, you know,
or inverse head and shoulders, that is.
Come back, retest what I have deemed the iron wall on Solana and have something like that hold.
If you don't see that hold, then you do come back down into this demand region.
That's just something that I'm eyeing because largely all the liquidity from the August 5th
low was swept down at the beginning of March. And so there is no support if you lose this 120 level.
And Solana is definitely coming back down probably sub 100 bucks
uh probably pretty quickly too um because there just hasn't been really an underlying bid in this
chart you know it's been pretty rapid expansion to the downside and you do like i say like i said
you want to see that hold you want to see the 120 level hold.
Really, really important level.
But if we do see it hold, right, you come back up into this, you know, this level, the 130 to 140 level. And you want to see some constructive price action around here, which will then give us the room to come back up.
You know, we probably get an underside retest
to the 170 level.
But, you know, this chart has got some work to do.
We lost a lot of key levels and we lost it quickly.
You know, it was this, this was pretty ugly too.
This, this candle right here,
back at the beginning of March where Solana went up.
Was that the, that was the like strategic
or the seized asset reserve
announcement that's what it was and then you saw us you know immediately reverse it so we got a lot
of major major levels that this chart has got to reclaim in order to do well but um yeah i'm with
tommy like you got you got some major, major levels across the board
that you want to see hold.
Still eyeing this right now, threat of water falling.
Threat of water falling.
There are quite a few longs coming in from what I can gather.
But I mean, they're coming from two places mainly,
which are Bybit and Binance.
I guess we'll just have to see. I really think kind of this weekend will be quite telling. If
you're not completely nuking within 24 to 48 hours, it's probably a pretty good sign
that you're going to see some reversion next week, not just in crypto, but also for equities.
Of course, crypto nukes this this weekend you probably have a taste of
what you're about to see in equities and yeah yeah yeah and something that was discussed too
so this chart or this level i have marked out here at 5565 for the spx was the jp morgan collar
trade so that is a level in which JP Morgan has 40,000 contracts
of SPY puts on to hedge their long exposure in their bags. And when you start to get closer,
and as the puts start to appreciate, this essentially becomes a magnet. That's why we
saw such a voracious move to the downside on the SPX is because market makers largely have to hedge that gamma or the change in delta that occurs when we have that move.
And we saw obviously this level hole because once you get down to it, then it becomes major,
major support because essentially what you have happen is you start to see those hedges
essentially what you have happen is you start to see those hedges unwind and that position
start to come off as we start to get down here. And the market makers have to hedge that gamma
down here. But what I did not and what I don't like to see is this daily candle. This is not
what you want to see. That's a nasty daily candle, man. This is not what you want to see that's a nasty daily candle man this is not what you want
to see and that jp morgan collar trade is only on for the rest of today and then monday um and then
they open it back up for the next quarter and the suspected level that it's going to be at is 5200
that's for Q2
that's for Q2
that's a suspected
level that JP Morgan's
caller trade is going to be at for Q2
I think that's a good level
for the
call me crazy
I'm still not ruling out another push
into
or around
Liberation Day.
It's been called.
It's been Liberation Day.
I guess it really just depends on what the VIX is going to do here, honestly.
If it's going to continue to base out for what I would probably consider to be a larger move higher,
or if it's going to continue to just kind of repeat the 2022 price action
then i guess we keep selling on the s p early next week and probably sets up along in early april but
uh regardless i think we're very close from a time standpoint to uh to a nice reversion trade north
it's just it's difficult because i think if you are looking to play longs that is
probably where the juiciest move next is is likely to come from you just have to manage your risk
because this price action is just absolutely brutal for top longers for bottom shorters
again this is illiquid slot price action that we usually see in bear markets.
Yeah, it's been tough trading, man. Tough trading.
Yeah, that's why I took some exposure off the board. I took some risk off the board because you got to call it for what it is. The markets are just super uncertain right now. And I will
be looking to deploy capital when the conditions are just
more suitable for my kind of, you know, if, if you're, you know, a bull market hero, and you
thrive in the bull markets, then, you know, it's important to and I myself, like, I think most
people do well in the bull market. I think Tommy's probably one of the only people I know that,
you know, generates larger returns returns or what seems like larger returns
in bearish environments. But, you know, I mean, me personally, I do better in bullish environments.
And so I'll wait to put that exposure back on when environments are more conducive for
that. So, I mean, yeah, we got this underside retest on Tuesday. I was looking at that. But, you know, if I put on the 2018 fractal, which is similar to what kind of I've been eyeing, then you would get some form of behavior like this.
like this um and i this is the the 20 the 2018 volatility regime is too kind of what i'm eyeing
so if we do get one more stab you know it's probably almost something exactly like this
you know we trade sideways into the middle of april that coincides with tommy's thesis of
getting some form of mean reversion to the upside in, you know, in alts, you know,
we probably see volatility come down. People stop longing vol and start shorting vol again. And then
you get one more, you know, big stab down and then some form of hard reversal. You know, Trump's talk
and his rhetoric that he doesn't care about markets, that only goes so far. That only goes so far.
There will be a point where if we come down to, let's say, 5,200, to where he starts caring.
And that also will then probably push the Fed into cutting, which is ultimately what he's trying to do. He's
trying to strong arm the Fed by causing a deflationary environment through tariffs and
through his policy into cutting, because that's what they want to do. They want to reduce the
burden of the debt wall that is coming to maturity. And what he also wants to do is he wants to stimulate housing
because you got to understand who Trump is
and where he comes from.
He comes from real estate.
That's his bread and butter.
What does he want to do?
He wants to stimulate and make housing thrive.
That's a large piece of his portfolio too, right?
Trump's bread and butter is is the housing market um and is commercial um
what do you think about the housing market this year prometheus i know that we haven't really
talked about that much on this show um it's always such a difficult thing to forecast
because it's been so resilient but i mean yeah i feel like if there is going to be a time for
correction in housing, if not this year, I am not sure when you're going to get one.
I don't think you get one this year. I think probably what happens is, well, okay. So what
do you mean by that? You mean like a reduction in mortgage rates?
No, in pricing.
In pricing, yeah, I don't think you get a reduction in housing until 27 or 28. largely stemming from the post-COVID Airbnb frenzy bonanza,
which you're already starting to see unwind, right?
I remember a bunch of my friends' parents kind of jumped on that train
and you saw everybody just buying up real estate,
everybody buying up houses, buying condos, buying duplexes,
Airbnb-ing them out.
And you're seeing places
already like Fort Lauderdale and large places or places in Florida and these vacation spots to where
you're having less and less people traveling and you're having less and less people
actually renting out these Airbnbs. And there's a big issue with that is if the rent can't cover
the mortgage anymore, then they essentially have negative equity in the property.
And especially if you start to see the value of the houses go down, you start to see the the value the houses go down you start to see this really nasty um feedback loop to where
they're the they have less equity in the house than than the actual um than what they have in it
and i think that unwind starts to occur probably in 27 and 28. so that's something that I'm watching out for. I think that getting into
buying a house right now and entering a mortgage right now is probably largely foolish. I think
that rates will come down too towards the end of the year. We'll see mortgage and housing rates probably hit around 5% by sometime beginning to mid next year.
So I'm kind of watching out for that.
I'm not in the camp that I want to buy a home right now.
I think they're overvalued.
I definitely agree with that.
I don't think it makes sense to buy a home right now.
Maybe that comes back and bites me and people will ask that
question, sidelined question mark. But I think it'll age well. I don't know if we're going to
have like a 2008 style housing crisis within the next few years. Maybe we do. But I just don't
think it, like, I feel fairly certain that housing prices will come down over the next few
years and that there will be a better opportunity to buy than currently.
Absolutely.
I think once that supply starts really hitting the market,
because that's the biggest issue now too, is the, uh,
the supply that's on the market, right?
The home builders are not incentivized to build, you know,
affordable housing or to build, you know, your
standard, your standard like middle-class house anymore. There's no, there's no margin in it for
them anymore. They are only incentivized to build, you know, more on the higher end for housing.
And so there's no supply for you, specifically the younger generations
to be able to buy into. And because of that, like I said, I think that you have an unwind
in the Airbnb frenzy and you're already starting to see that. And a large portion of that supply,
is that more affordable housing? Is that real estate that is more tailored towards
people that are starting families or that are new to marriage? So you start to see that unwind,
you start to see that supply flood the market, and then you'll see those housing prices really start to come down. I'm very interested to see kind of what happens in some of these market sectors when
we see liquidity materially come down into the middle of the year. It really is going to be
interesting, I think. Not just as far as obviously the treasury debt, but of course we talked about the yen carry trade. Some people who have been swimming naked, I guess maybe the tide's about to come in for them. We'll see. But I think that's a good spot to probably wrap up the show unless you guys have anything else that you want to touch on on an individual basis.
basis uh that's all i got really um i mean somebody requested pepe the chart up i have
up it's pretty self-explanatory we rejected from a major key level um we were talking about this
before the show started but you really want to see this like we'll just call it seven cent region
hold um i feel like pepe is one of the better looking alts right now actually oh 100 percent
yeah i mean even a high time frame like
it is a really good looking chart actually most uh you know the the blue chip memes
do not look like this at all um that's because they're not lindy
not lindy not lindy memes make originality great again right i mean there was just so much dilution
lindy memes
on so i almost feel like that kind of helped eth a little bit or rather eth memes um at least pepe
maybe i should just say pepe because you didn't have quite as much dilution on ETH as you did on Solana because there just wasn't as
much network activity going on. So maybe Pepe was spared for that reason, right? There wasn't as
many like vampire attacks on its liquidity, but that's just, I just kind of thought about that.
But with that said, Louis, can you pull up the terminal? Is your terminal working, by the way?
I know we're still running.
Yeah.
I got access back.
Hell yeah.
Pull it up here.
And I was able to see through the terminal, guys,
that Binance and Bybit are longing this dip.
Make of that what you will.
I mean, I know Bybit gets a negative rep,
but they've actually had i think i
mean bybit's been pretty decent lately it's been more okx and hyper liquid traders that have been
the fade from an open interest standpoint that bybit used to be and obviously finance as well
uh finance is kind of the smart money uh hold on i'm trying to add you to the stage oh i have to
remove prometheus sorry if you guys enjoyed the stage. Oh, I have to remove Prometheus. Sorry.
If you guys enjoyed the show today, I know we have a smaller crowd because it is Friday,
but we hope that you still enjoyed the commentary. I felt like we covered a lot of like very high timeframe topics. So I hope that you guys found it useful. Just kind of giving some outlooks on
not just the next like week of price action, because as we know, that can be pretty high, high level of variance, but also, uh, you know, what we're expecting here
over the next few months and even over the course of 2025. Uh, but yeah, if you guys enjoyed the
commentary, like I said, we've got a few ways that you could potentially join the BB family,
starting with what Louie has pulled up right now, the BB terminal, whether or not you are an active
trader trading lower timeframes, looking at open interest data bb terminal whether or not you are an active trader trading lower time frames looking at open interest data uh whether or not you are a long-term investor
looking to use data to help drive some long-term investment decisions and of course whether or not
soon soon whether or not you are an on-chain degen you love playing in the trenches meme coins and
everything else we will have the tool for you as well so check out the bb terminal
guys um devs are doing something all the time we are continuing to build out more and more
functionality to make this the best possible tool that you can use throughout this market cycle of
course we also have the discord uh we talk about it every day but you guys get three to four hours
four to five sometimes of calls every single day.
You get access to our intimate thoughts on the market in real time.
And of course, even our positioning.
And we were nice enough to package that together with the BB Terminal.
So if you're interested in one, wanted to get a discount on the other, you have the
optionality to be able to do that.
And of course, if you're looking to hone your educational base or even reach trading level
mastery, we've got the BB Academy. So check that out as well, guys. And last, but certainly not
least, you know, maybe this market volatility has gotten to you a little bit. Maybe you cannot
take, what's that copy pasta? I can't take it anymore. I'm completely exiting the crypto markets.
We've got a solution for you guys as well, or really anybody else who's interested in
allowing the team to manage capital for you.
We have an SEC registered hedge fund, BB Wealth Management, where we look to capture
the asymmetric history of upside returns for all digital assets while, of course, managing
the downside risk posts in any financial market.
So if anything that I just said over the
last 90 seconds resonated with you, you can get more information on all of these offerings that
we have in the description below this video. But we hope that you guys enjoyed Market Check today.
This is our last show of the week. So we will be back on Monday. Reminder that we are live Monday
through Friday whenever the New York Stock Exchange is open with our typical start time around 11 to 11.15 a.m. Eastern Standard. Make
sure as well to wrap up your week, check out Market Talk with King Wabi. That is an X Spaces
hosted through the BB account as well as his own. So make sure to stay following and subscribe
to both of those accounts so you can be notified not just when we schedule those spaces but of course also when we go live that's it for today's
show guys thank you as always for tuning in uh we'll see what we get this weekend i think you'll
get a bit of signal for how we can expect equity markets to trade next week probably here over the
next like 24 to 48 hours so uh at the very least, we always like having clarity,
but at the very least, some expectations to go off of.
But in the meantime, y'all have a great weekend.
Get outside, spend some time with your family,
do whatever you need to do to kind of detox a little bit
after a long week in markets.
And yeah, until Monday, guys, thank you again, as always.
And of course, stay safe.
