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UNDER EXPOSED: BTC Outperforms Gold, HYPE Heats Up & Poly Taps PLTR
Recorded: March 10, 2026 Duration: 1:01:28Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Underexposed, our weekly macro show hitting
all the biggest topics and trends impacting crypto and broader web 3.
Today is Tuesday, March 10, 2026 and folks, the Iran war continues to rage on.
It seems macro volatility is just increasing by the day right now. And yet, crypto seems to be the safe haven asset.
Bitcoin is up and pumping again here today.
Is this our new normal or just a blip on the radar?
We're going to talk about it on today's show.
I'm your host, Tyler D.
We've got some co-hosts in the house.
First up, D's, our mainstay, art collector, coin stacker, trader, and more.
GM, how you doing?
GM, no hat today.
Couldn't figure out what to wear.
So we're just going to do no hat for the first show ever.
A rare hatless D's.
Maybe.
Yeah, take your screenshots.
Bottom sides.
Folks, no Peter today.
He is out spending some time with his daughter.
Our thoughts with her.
Everything seems to be good.
But we've got stats filling in. He is the chief turnoff server in meme land wears a lot of hats i know
he's been busy lately we're rocking the pink hoodie stats gm gm gm always fun to hang out
with the legends indeed i'm just noticing those fidenzas on these wall i'm sure like it's just
totally commonplace now but I'm just noticing
them that those are like um you know my grandpa has deer on the wall he's got like a 20 point
deer and a 16 point deer like this is my version of those deer yeah exactly I don't I don't know
I don't own any of the NFTs anymore oh you don't own them anymore? No. Even better part of the lore. Right now, the angle my head is at,
all the NFTs are owned by me.
If I go here, that Ranga, I don't own.
The Quirky, I don't own.
Oh, that's incredible.
This angle, I own everything.
That's good.
You just got to keep your head at the right angle then.
But also check this out.
My wife just designed my wall.
That's a good computer,
which was one of the art drop art blocks that I bought for like two and a half years. And it's probably not, not sellable, but I think I had a good
computer friends. Yeah.
I was promised with a lot of art blocks.
What's the couple grand of youth between friends? Yeah.
Was that a...
I'm blanking on the black and white.
Oh, on my wall?
Yeah.
Oh, no, that's like a drawing we put on our wedding.
Oh, okay.
All right.
He's like, what's that?
Exactly.
Stats, wedding, art drop.
Here's a question, guys. i know you got stuff to talk about
but you invite me on you know i'm gonna talk yeah i i was looking at you know i just retweeted your
tweet saying hey guys like you're saying everyone come to sam their stats decent and i was thinking
at what point do we stop defining ourselves by our pfvs does that just become something that
was a 2021 thing
that eventually kind of goes away?
Or do you think that that, like,
where it just trickles lower?
Are we going to get a bounce back
in people defining themselves by their NFTs?
Like, because I think maybe, like,
this stops being a thing at some point.
Just going back to more normal.
I think you can argue that 2021 and COVID
being peak online is, like,
peak digital identity culture.
I think the pendulum will swing back at some point.
Like I don't see myself going away from PFPs,
whether it's the puppet or punk or whatever the fuck.
But I can see the pendulum swinging back in the future
as people get sick of more of the state of the surveillance state
that we live in and want to strip away their physical identity
from their digital.
But yeah, I think 2021 was the local top bet,
at least for the next few years.
I've had thoughts of switching,
but then it just feels like a whole ordeal.
Like, oh, are you turning your back on NFTs?
Are you turning your back on crypto?
Or are you leaving the community?
It just kind of feels like it's easier not to
not to deal with that and what else do I need is a picture of myself absolutely not well it's it's
well yeah um people people before I had the uh like nft profile pictures I was just using
different pepe memes like my profile picture was just a different picture of pepe like every
couple months so it's funny that you mentioned that,
but I do have a new potential PFP I could use.
Thanks to our good friend Stass.
The folks missed us over the weekend.
He's been coding with ClockCode.
He developed this new app.
It's called PortraitStudio.me.
I've been playing with it.
I uploaded a selfie this morning.
Effectively, what you do, you upload a selfie or a few,
and his algo will make you a nice-looking headshot.
And I generated this one today, and I kind of like it quite a bit.
I'm going to make it my decrypt headshot for sure.
I might keep playing around, make a little more formal version as well.
I don't know if I'm going to update LinkedIn.
You look like you just led around rounds for a door dash competitor you can go on like quietly content the content
make you a little happier if you want like there's a mood thing where you can be like
and you're quietly happy or i went confident i love confident realism that guy realism going
like smooth smooth yeah just see what happens realism that like can
turn you into supermodel which is a problem because it looks nothing like you but uh
with women it just goes too crazy i need to get it to calm the fuck down yeah you can go younger
you can there's a lot of things you can do to enhance yeah i got some uh today today today
i'm gonna ship something pretty cool though where you can like see the outfit before you uh before you generate which should be pretty cool nice well love uh you know
there's the stigma out there that everyone's using claude no one's shipping anything well
here we go we have we have a real world example yeah i made this product for myself because i was
like making pfps for people i was like hey check this out like using some of my own photography
is like because i used to be really into portrait photography.
And I got sick of copy pasting the same thing into Gemini over and over,
and then pasting all the images and finding them in my folder.
So I just told Cloud Code, I was like, make me an app that just does this for me.
And then I started to be like, ooh, maybe I could add mood.
Ooh, maybe I could actually turn this into a product.
It is funny.
The one thing I have found, and then we're going to talk about markets. I have friends who I go out to dinner with, and it's like $150 a head, $20 mixed drinks,
bitching at me because I won't give them a $3.95 code.
They're cheap.
But these people aren't cheap in their everyday.
They aren't cheap when we go out.
But when it comes to pushing a buy button for $3.95 on the internet,
it's like a test of your friendship if you're going to give it to them for free.
I'm like, guys, this is just like a passion project that I'm losing money on.
Just spend a little money.
$3.95, guys.
I will say there's a big barrier online for getting me from zero to spending anything.
Like $0. Like 50 cents.
Yeah.
Barrier of spending.
I just lowered it from $4 to $3.95 so that I could say like, you wouldn't even spend $3.95.
That does feel cheaper than four.
You have to price it like that.
Even when I list things on like any marketplace, I'm at $4.99 instead of five, like every time
or just the human psychology.
It feels like you're a cheap woman on eBay and I'm kind of like, yeah,
let's just like give full numbers. Like when, when men,
I respect it more than 1195. One last thing.
Oh, I've got more actually, but, but sit here.
Let's talk about subscription culture in America getting out of fucking control.
I just got charged for like, you order like dog food.
Like, oh, well, we're going to make you pay this every month.
I'm like, no.
Subscribe and save.
Like, I bought these pouches once that were like Zin, but with no drugs, just like to
make you feel cool.
And they had like a flavor.
That is not a subscription product.
I'll reorder it when I am done and the next thing i
know i'm getting charged 50 in a month or something i don't want any everything in america is a
subscription i had a crazy feeling the uh other week about subscriptions because as tyler knows
for a long time i even bragged about not using the tesla full self-driving and then we were going to
michigan for a thing and i was like we could spend 50 and just Tesla full self-driving. And then we were going to Michigan for a thing. And I was like, we could spend $50 and just get full self-driving. And if we don't
like it during the trip, it's like the worst thing we lose is $50. And then I flipped it on its head.
And it's like, how crazy is it? We live in a world where you can spend $50 a month and now
your car just drives itself. Like for the price of one DoorDash meal, I now just have this car
that drives itself. And I was, I didn't buyash mule, I now just have this car that drives itself.
And I didn't buy full self-driving when we bought the car because it was like eight plus thousand
dollars. And then they had the hundred dollar a month subscription and I like didn't buy it.
So I was like, no, I like the drive. And then when it was fifty dollars a month, I was like,
you know what? Fuck it. Like we're going to Michigan. I don't really want to drive three
hours. Let's see how this thing works. And it blew my fucking mind.
And now probably 50% of the time I'm driving,
it's driving itself.
All for $50 a month.
Yeah, it's made for those long trips.
For the price of one Uber.
It's like, well, now you just have an Uber.
It is one of those things.
You're like, I mean, I remember these comedy routines
when people would freak out
because Wi-Fi wasn't working on a plane.
It's like,
you are talking to your friends real time from the sky and they're in Australia.
And you are literally making it like you are a victim when it stops
working.
You know,
it's just the,
but you know,
it's like $50 that will drive you.
Yeah.
Safely too.
Like I was pretty impressed because we have a 2023 so it's
like some of the older hardware but i haven't felt unsafe either which is what i thought i would feel
there's sometimes when it's like hurtling and hurry mode onto the highway like you're still
i don't use it when like I'm driving around the neighborhood,
like the way that it fully stops and like takes to,
I'm coming to a half stop at a stoplight cause or like a stop sign.
Cause no one's here. It's, it's dead quiet, but this car is like, Nope,
we gotta come to a full stop. Look left, right. Six times.
So I turn it off for that. But yeah, the highway.
Well, Seth, this is a final comment. But yeah, the highway. Well, Seth, final comment.
We started this with NFT PFPs.
Maybe that's V3 of the app.
There's some kind of a hybrid.
Take your cartoon NFT PFP with your real life
and let's get a new version of this
to help transition people off.
The Alex Finn route,
how he slowly transitioned out of his PFP to,
to real life.
Maybe there,
there's something to that.
Market,
marketing ploy for my thing.
I have got a few people who have PFP did already.
I mean,
when they work,
they're fucking beautiful.
They're good.
I got to stick with the punk.
I really,
you guys know this.
I'm a,
I'm a punk native.
You know, that's kind of my, not as native as D's.
I wasn't, I don't have screenshots of telegrams in 2019 of people buying a zombie for $2,000.
But, you know, it was punks that got me into the game.
And I don't want to turn my back on it.
Yeah, I think holding three, you count as a pretty top, top collector.
That's true.
So we'll give it to you.
Folks, we're going to get into the show.
We're going to talk some macro.
We're going to talk Bitcoin outperforming just about everything else during this war.
I ran the numbers.
Hype heating up some new launches, margin, hip fours, and testnet.
It's the surprising headline this morning.
Well, first off, Polymarket's raising at $20 billion, and now they're tapping Palantir
to investigate sports betting
on their platform. So that one came out of
left field. We'll talk about more as well.
A couple of housekeeping items. We're live on Kik. As always, we're
live on X as well. We're going to
do two Yeet giveaways at the end of
today's show, two $500 giveaways.
So you're going to want to make sure
to follow the instructions, be signed up on
Yeet, Morning Minute Ref Code. If you
aren't already, you have to be signed up. Use the code. And we'll do thoseet Morning Minute Ref Code if you aren't already.
You have to be signed up.
Use the code.
And we'll do those spins at the end of today's show.
And as always, before we get started, a quick disclosure.
The opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers
and do not reflect the views or opinions of any organizations they are associated with.
We are here to share insights, provoke thought, and maybe even start some debate.
But this is not, I repeat, not financial advice.
Always talk about markets, investments, and trends. Remember, your financial decisions should be made
with the help of your own research or with advice from a licensed professional. All right, well,
let's get into it. I had the crypto screen up briefly before I went into Sam's ad, but we'll
pull it up again because it looks awfully nice here this morning, folks, or this afternoon,
Again, it looks awfully nice here this morning, folks, or this afternoon, depending where you're at.
We've got Bitcoin 71,250, up 4% on the day, up 4% on the week as well.
So we are green since last week's show.
ETH hanging out up about 4% as well.
2075, Salon up 2% on the week, 87, 89.
This has come while I think stocks are basically flat. Gold is basically flat as well
since the Iran war. And of course the, the bigger story of the last few days has been oil oil spiked
all the way to close to one 20, definitely one 15 late Sunday night on Straight Up For Muse concerns and has since fallen about 30%.
It is back around 84.
Last night's pump, seemingly folks attributed to Trump Taco, perhaps saying the war may be coming to an end sooner than the four to five weeks.
Even though kind of speaking out of both sides of his mouth, kind of answering questions in multiple ways. Uh, so hard to be too confident about that.
And then breaking before the show, I saw Steve Whitcoff comments that, um, the U S is
depleted. Most of Iran's enrichment capabilities already. I haven't had a chance to dig into that
one yet, but that was some breaking news.
That's broadly where we're at in terms of macro.
I think just first question, Diesel, I'll throw it to you and then we'll plug stats in.
Are you surprised to see crypto's outperformance?
Outperforming other primary assets so far during the conflict, actually performing like a safe haven asset?
Yes and no.
I feel like it's down so much already going into this that it's hard to find more sellers uh so i think in that sense it makes sense um i was
watching the oil market over the weekend too just because so many people on crypto twitter
decided to buy it like over a hundred dollars a barrel or whatever and that seemed uh i never
short things we talk about this but that seemed
like a good time to short when like the timeline was talking about selling crypto assets for for
oil and a never-ending war i think there was something that came out where like that iran
said like oh we're gonna fight for like six months or something too and that that kind of
added a little bit to the chaos this weekend
until Trump came out and said,
you know, I think the war is done.
And then came out and said, you know,
maybe it's just getting started in so many words.
But yeah, I'm never too surprised.
I think crypto has been just beaten down so badly
that we are getting out of sellers and that when people want to buy something that, you know, I guess isn't U.S. equities.
It's interesting.
They've run out of sellers is certainly a poor man's last words.
That's never gotten us in trouble before.
That's never hurt us. Guys,. That's never hurt us before.
Guys, all the Azuki sellers are gone.
We were at 70.
Where were we last week?
We were like during the show around a similar price.
Or was it before the I think maybe it was a day before we were back in the 70s.
Wednesday last week we pumped to 74.
Yeah, okay.
And then that day kind of felt like we could be back.
Like there was the we could be back energy.
And then the next day was like, oh yeah, we're actually like in this war
and shit's going to be bad for a while.
And right now we're right back to the, well, it could be back energy.
It sure feels that way.
For the record, I thought we were out of cellars up here.
I drank all the Udi's Kool-Aid.
Sailor had absorbed all the cellars.
So as soon as the next wave comes, we're just going to –
this is the leg to 180.
If over here, I mean, 180 was a pretty consensus target for 2025.
What happened to the easy road?
We just had to get to 120K, and there was an easy road. Thanks, Kobe. We never got to the easy road? We just had to get to the 120K and there was like an easy road.
Thanks, Kobe.
Oh, I never got to the easy road.
Yeah, I'm like Tyler, actually.
My dad's investment philosophy is buy high, buy more higher.
And I'm his son.
So I definitely am buying at 120 and like, holy fuck, maybe we gotta sell
at like $70. That's just, which is why
I never even pretend to
even tell people what to do with their money.
Let's do the opposite.
It's been
very strong, right?
What's the Bitcoin gold chart look like here?
It's gotta be nice here over the last week.
Gold's up today, too.
It's back to be nice here over the last week. Gold's up today, too. It's back to 52.
basically flat over the past month.
Yeah, gold looks good, too.
Since the war, the war started around
here.
And we're up a couple percent.
So, not a significant move
against gold. Both of those
doing pretty well.
The driver, for me, I really think it's stretch.
And I've been tweeting about this a lot.
But for whatever reason, people have found this.
Oh, strategy.
What did you just call it?
Well, stretch is their new product.
So this is strategy's. This is strategies.
I gotcha.
It's kind of like a bond.
They call it digital credit,
but basically you earn 11 and a half percent yield on these stretch shares at
a hundred dollar par value.
Interesting.
And you get paid out monthly.
And in theory,
you can then sell your shares down the line at 100.
Of course, you have to have a buyer.
And if there's not a buyer, then this was trading below 100 for quite some time.
But above 100 is where it gets interesting.
As of last Tuesday, the record was 787 Bitcoin in a day.
Yesterday, it got to 1360.
And now it looks like it's going to set another smashing record today. So all said,
Saylor has been a big buyer. He was a big buyer last week, 1.28 billion.
I think he's going to be a big buyer this week as well.
So he's absorbing a ton of the sell pressure for me.
I think that's going to be enough to push us higher in the near term.
The failed breakout 74 last week,
definitely demoralized a lot of folks
but i think if we get if we beat that level this week folks will be paying attention again um but
of course there's just so much volatility out there right now it's hard to be super confident
i i'm curious just like macro setups ask maybe I'll toss this one to you.
In my head, it feels like there's a lot of,
even though very different situations,
I see some parallels to last year's tariff sell-off
where we sold off similar time,
February, March, and then effectively V-shaped
as kind of Trump walked back
from some of the initial tariff demands.
And in theory, the war hard line,
and then perhaps as he walks back, as we get to a deal,
would we see a similar market recovery?
I'm curious if you're thinking about it like that.
Agree, disagree, neutral.
Yeah, man, I, you know, we always say not investment advice.
I want to like triple down on not an expert on geopolitics, particularly as it relates
to Iran and Trump schools there and how they respond to Trump, like things I literally
know nothing about.
But I, that all those disclaimers aside, my armchair kind of like thoughts would be probably no one
wants to be in war if they don't have to be. And, you know, I, I've like one, like the taco trend is
just so non-negotiable at this point where Trump really, and taco is pejorative, but I think what
it's saying is that Trump really, really does not like stock markets going down. Like markets are the one thing that have him by the balls. Like no person has Trump
by the balls, but markets do. And anytime you get like a down five to 10% move, like the people he
cares about are in his ear and he walks back what he was doing. Now, I think one of the thoughts was,
well, once you start a war where people are bombing Dubai and a school with 150 kids gets killed and all that stuff happens, it's not like you can walk it back like you could with Liberation Day tariffs because you're messing with too many cultures and people and leaders and stuff like that.
But the market right now is saying, actually, you can.
Like when Trump says this is over, everyone else is going to find a way for it to be over because they're just kind of responding to him and i think that's kind of what the markets
are saying right now and then it's back to having a high spending loose monetary policy desiring
president that makes sense for markets in general yeah it seems it kind of boils down to that and
if you think that's how it plays out, I guess now is perhaps the time to
start thinking about going long. Although prediction markets still- I mean, it's not like
you're getting paid for the risk right now though. I mean, I generally don't sell, right? I just kind
of hold a bunch of stuff and never sell because that's the place in my life I am in the place of
my financial journey. I just bought a bunch of shit, let it rip and hold it for a few years,
but it's not like you're getting paid to take a huge risk here you know it's like you're still we're still like basically at all-time highs on nasdaq
yeah the pain hasn't really come yet for the most taco kicks in i'm like a down three percent day
right so the question is at what point at what point is the president changing his mind
not sufficient to reverse markets?
Or is it literally a thing right now where we're like,
oh, fuck, then okay, back to normal.
I mean, is there like a boy that cried wolf aspect to this
at some point where people stop pricing that in?
I mean, we just bombed Iran.
Maybe it happened by now.
We just bombed the hell out of Iran.
Iran took out their leader.
Iran bombed Dubai and other places
that were always safe havens.
And the markets are still at all-time highs.
So I think the market's basically saying,
we don't believe you
with pretty much anything he does.
That feels like it could be destabilizing
because they're almost pricing in the...
We'll figure it out.
The taco component feels priced in.
Yeah, I'm trying to find...
How does it feel priced into Bitcoin, though?
Well, Bitcoin was crashing before anyone mentioned the word Iran.
I know. What happened there?
It's actually been pumping on the Iran stuff.
What happened to our crypto president?
Can he step the fuck in?
I know. Maybe J.D. Vance can fix this.
It's interesting.
Maybe J.D. Vance, Eric Trump, and Don Jr.
could have a conference where they invite Wizard of Soho
and we'll all be okay.
Well, the news on that front is JD is down 6% and Marco Rubio is steaming.
Yeah. The algorithm loves sending me Marco Rubio positive propaganda. And I don't know if it's because I always engage with it, but like I've gotten a lot of good Marco Rubio clips in the
algorithm of the
last month.
Never have you been punished more for having like a wayward thought.
Marco Rubio kind of interesting in this drunk moment when I'm checking my
Twitter,
you've liked the post and next thing you know,
you on plasters you with Marco Rubio.
I was getting Marco Rubio clips from 10 years ago.
I was like,
it's part of this campaign.
He had something he said about from 10 years ago of like it's part of his campaign he said uh about iran 10
years ago that was like kind of you know basically turned out to be true and uh that was really just
all over my timeline for like two days well that one actually did go pretty viral uh just because
oh that wasn't just me it wasn't just you and liking all the various memes uh the meme ability
i liked that one and then after that that's
when i just started like you know what if marco rubio could uh be the best football gm in the
league like type tweets just start hitting the timeline he is one of the better memes of this
administration oh yeah oh it's it's better than whatever they're doing on the um white house
twitter account man that some of the things coming out of that White House Twitter account with the higher end stuff,
I probably chuckle more than I should, but it doesn't seem great.
Especially when they're using songs and other people's likeness of people who do not support what they're doing
and they're just throwing it up there.
Yeah, it's fairly unhinged.
It won't surprise anyone that I'm not a fan.
you know,
look like when I ran Uber in Asia,
you just have standards you hold yourself,
you know,
and it is weird to see.
I think there's a message they're stating of like those standards.
No one liked them anyway.
And let's just show that we can just fuck around.
But yeah,
I don't know when,
when kids are dying.
Yeah. It's kind of like, let's just, let's just show a little bit of grace here. But, yeah, I don't know. When kids are dying, yeah, it's kind of like,
let's just show a little bit of grace here because if our kids were dying, we'd want the enemy to show a little grace.
Yeah, they're taking, like, a big hit montage from the NFL
and, like, overlaying, like, AC-130 bombs landing
with fucking NFL linebackers hitting running backs.
Seriously, all right.
Well, I think one...
I don't want to celebrate bombs landing on people
because I think we feel like we're invincible here,
but you never know what the next 70 years are going to hold
and just show a little bit of grace here, folks.
Not even next 70.
Next 20.
Next six.
Next five minutes, dude.
I don't know.
Tomorrow.
Deez is dealing with Bigfoot yeah i got i got bigfoot
no i have eight foot nine foot bigfoot there's a lot going on at the moment well i think one thing
one big macro topic that's been overshadowed a bit by the war and rightfully so two weeks ago
we were worried about ai taking everyone's jobs and that impact on the economy. It seems like people aren't as worried about that.
They're worried about other things now for the,
the time being,
but stats.
I'm curious for your thoughts on that.
You're an AI power user.
Are you buying the hype is the wrong one.
Are you buying the doom or take that we're going to see 10 to 50% white
collar wipeouts in the next one to five years?
That's a pretty huge range.
Let's call it 25 to 50.
10% wouldn't really be as a huge of an impact.
I know, but like 25 to 50,
which is what Dario has largely been saying on his media tour.
It's pretty dire. I think when you like the, I just think back to the Uber days, like if we wanted to implement promo codes, um, the amount of people you kind of needed to figure
out a promo code system, the number, this is on the engineering side, but like it literally,
you just say, Hey, I want a promo code system where if someone refers someone else, they get three credits and the person who gets referred gets 20% off their purchase.
I'd like it to be up on the top of the bar and okay, coming right up takes five minutes.
It does it in like the speed with which like really people intensive stuff is getting wiped out is kind of like wild.
And I don't know, it's just like my friend, my friend's getting a photo shoot today. He's like,
yeah, my photographer wants me to go buy clothes and make sure I'm like dressed appropriately. I'm
like, I can literally swap out your clothes and it'll still look exactly like you in five seconds.
Why would you spend a dollar
I just see all these ways you know I don't know this I I don't know enough about big picture
trends because one would have thought the internet would have wiped out jobs right and created jobs
you know and I think like I I don't know enough about the offsetting factors to to know how to
think about this holistically but I met a photographer yesterday and I was talking to her and I'm like,
I'm like, damn, dude, like there are just so many fewer,
like if you're someone who does like corporate products,
like someone can literally just take a iPhone picture of it,
send it to AI and say,
make this look awesome in a style that we agree on or that you just wiped
out a designer and a photographer without blinking.
I think that the primary counter has been people will just do more.
So instead of being replaced,
it's like one of the more interesting soundbites.
I think on that is that that was what people thought about the internet as
well.
And the internet has,
it's kind of arguable if the internet's actually made people
more productive. Because on the one hand, you have this ability to contact your friends, to do
podcasts, do all this stuff online. On the other hand, you have an ability to see what your friends
are doing, to chat with someone from high school, to look at pictures of your ex-girlfriend's
vacation to Florida in your pocket at all times. And it's actually become a weapon of mass
distraction. I just think like, is this thing going to make people more productive like it's not even
clear that the internet has made people more productive because it's made people so much more
distracted and i only use that to think of like the obvious thing that things that things are
going to do there are all these offsets that we're not aware of um there is data out there that ai is
making people like substantially stupider i actually think like mit's run some i mean i don't know i don't want to quote stuff i haven't really dug
into but that is a soundbite going out there you like you almost turn you you switch from being a
producer to a consumer when you use it like depending on how you're using it and you're
using different parts of your brain you're using less like i've seen that as well i mean similar
trend with tablets in schools right you thought that would be like the first order effect like oh this
is gonna be good for kids more ways to learn now it seems like it's the opposite based on seeing
the way my kids look when you take a tablet away from them it to me it strikes me as saying like
oh like cocaine in colleges is gonna be good yes we are more productive when we do uppers like we
can be really fucking productive for uppers when we're on uppers like the amount of shit i can
build on adderall is kind of out of control but like you know it's at a cost we we took away our
kids ipads well we didn't they gave them up for lent and. And I don't think they're going to get them back.
Well done.
We got a new version of Lent now.
It's called Forever.
I got to get more religion in my family's life.
That would save me a whole lot.
This is actually Summer Lent. And then that transitions into the Fall Lent cycle,
which goes to Winter Lent.
And you might get them back next year
Jesus is always watching and he's
got Santa on speed dial
I gotta get that quote painted
on my wall
I'm seeing everyone in college using
AI yeah they are
and now they're not gonna be
qualified to do anything because
they don't have any critical thinking skills, unfortunately.
I feel like the AI, at least for me, who's still a boomer with it,
it does, I feel like, help me with critical thinking
because I need to think about the exact steps or data
or whatever I need to do this thing.
And it's not just this like abstract concept
in my head anymore but i have to like sit here and tell claude hey i need these nine data points
like when i click on this thing to show and i'm doing it like mostly for pokemon collecting so
it's it's a little different i guess but like it does make me think at least a little more
critically of like okay well like what repetitive processes am I doing every day that I can automate like what data do
I actually need to make a decision rather than just like what is all the data I consume that
you know I filter out most of in my head maybe the big problem isn't that we need things to
organize what we're doing it's that we're not doing anything maybe like that's the humanity
wake-up call like when Claude is like doing its thing are you paying any attention to like anything it's
doing because like the first week i sat there and i kind of tried to like follow along of like oh
like what what is it doing like what is its thought process and now i just it's on another
computer to my right and i just don't even look at it just check when it's done yeah um no i mean i definitely
it doesn't even allow you it just goes too fast even really and then it gives you tons of you
could scroll back through it you don't want to go through and learn what it just did i mean i was a
computer science minor in college and i actually took a one-year course in web app development
um and no no one is like no it's just i don't know the infrastructure of this app like that
that would be impossible like it's just at the speed we're operating at like you you learn a
lot more doing this about the way everything comes together like there have been some very real bugs
you know um i lost all my day one users because claude missed something you know and like there's a lot it is not i would say this like yes it has cut everything out it has
still not been easy you know um to do like you have to connect your database you have to connect
authorization you have to you know you have to connect stripe there's all like you have to get
all these different pieces working together and then you, and it can only do so much.
And you got to make design choices.
And then it does have mistakes.
And Gemini is a pain in the ass.
And, you know, it's like, it's not perfect yet.
But it's pretty fucking good.
So on your net learning.
Oh, a ton.
A ton.
I've learned so much about just the problem with like the web app product i built
is like when i was in this class you spend all your time learning to code so then you never even
get to figuring out some of this stuff because the coding is so much work and then now it's like
okay the coding is taken care of but i have to learn how does someone log on from their apple
account log on from their linkedin like that stuff's actually not that easy to,
I mean, it's not hard, but it's not instant.
But in a lot of ways, that's like the more important,
like IRL, like if you actually want a product.
Certainly if a robot can do all the coding for you,
it's more important, you know what I mean?
If you've got no coder,
I'd say the coding's more important.
It's all relative.
The reason I had that, I had this startup. I think this one went fairly viral over the last few days for folks who are online, but basically AI favorability is incredibly negative. There's only a handful of things more negative for this NBC poll. It's basically in line with ICE, the Democratic Party in Iran. I ran the worst in this poll by far.
But I feel like there's going to be real consequences for this.
Probably in the 2028 election.
I think 2026 is going to be too soon.
Folks aren't going to have enough policies stood up or platforms.
But it feels like anti-AI is going to be a platform.
I don't know exactly what that means. Are the
Democrats going to be the anti-AI,
anti-crypto party in
2028?
I've been worried about this
I feel like since we started the show
and we were starting around the last election
and I was like, man, I really hate how
Trump turns
so much of the tech stuff into a
political fighting
match
I feel like I've been coming out
anti-dim the last few years
and I want to walk back from that because I'm
more just moderate in the middle
but my good reaction
to your question is yes
that would be their stance
and on the anti-crypto
piece like i listen i see i watch the local news every night and i see all the political ads that
are running rampant right now and basically it's when they're trying to bash their opponent they're
saying they they had fundraised they fundraised via ice donors and they took crypto money like
that that's that's the big glaring red flags right now
and that's just like local chicago type stuff that's kind of often there's a lot of corruption
in crypto like i think i think it has a bad reputation for a reason and i think like when
you have the bitcoin lobby completely being one of trump's absolute biggest donors and the first
thing first things he does is some kind of aesthetic stuff just to pump our bags like
that's just not a good look i mean i think that this is all part of the reasoning that this
administration is not really that great for crypto um and i uh you know so i i think that those
complaints probably do resonate tyler with the average voter and i don't think it's all that
wrong because you don't want politicians taking crypto money and then creating legislation to get the government to buy crypto
well i do think it's there i do think it resonates for sure we've seen a couple positive
headlines though so like this just real quick we don't need to talk about this too long but i
thought this was pretty positive news out of the treasury yesterday uh acknowledging legitimate
privacy use cases for crypto mixers.
And I'll admit, when I first came, I have an AML background. When I found out about Tornado Cash, I couldn't believe this was allowed to exist.
Of course, unstoppable on the blockchain.
But so I could see how the government would be anti-tools like that.
But I thought it was notable that they're saying, OK, well, there are some reasons why you could use products like this.
So I thought that was a positive step.
And we saw Zeke move a bit on the back of this.
Zeke also moved because the former Zcash team raised $25 million yesterday.
So nice little pop there.
I think the Democrat Party is just so hated because Democrats hate the party too.
The Democrat Party is just so hated because Democrats hate the party too.
You know, it's like when you lose as bad as the Democrats did, like everyone hates it, including the people in it, you know.
So it's just got that mad hate everywhere.
But yeah, I don't think crypto is very popular.
And I actually think that's one of the reasons that Trump has backed down on a lot of the ideas of the treasury buying it. Because at the end of the day,
they just couldn't defend to the public the idea of using tax dollars to buy Bitcoin at $120,000.
Because if they did that, then if you gave them $100,000 in taxes, it is now worth $60,000
because they bought an asset that they took billions of dollars of donations from a group who holds it.
Like, this is just not, like, in our space we celebrate it.
But it is just objectively terrible, terrible policy decision making if you're one of them.
Yeah.
You're right.
They backed off of that.
Unclear that we'll.
Just imagine that.
If you're someone who paid $100,000 in taxes and it's now worth're 60 grand because your government decided to buy Bitcoin, which you don't own, and a bunch of people who donated shitloads of money to their campaign do own.
Why would any politician be like, that's a risk I want to take?
And it's also not fair to the worker.
These are just volatile assets.
And government treasuries is not meant to be in super volatile assets.
And people are going to be like, oh, well, gold, gold.
I mean, gold was just a much less
volatile asset in the past.
you know, historic precedent
does have a way, you know,
but I think El Salvador
looks stupid right now.
Yeah, I think they'll find...
You want to be a sailor? Imagine
if we do what sailor did. That's what we want. We wanted the government
to be sailor. I Imagine if we did what a sailor did. That's what we wanted. We wanted the government to be a sailor.
I mean, a couple more sailors, and we would be on an easy road.
I mean, we would also be thrown in the Bahamas, you know,
doing this podcast live with our family, online homeschooling,
you know, with Tim Ferriss or whoever we got on Zoom.
You know, like, it wouldn't be terrible.
But just thinking it objectively as non-bag holders. Yeah. It wouldn't be terrible. But just thinking it objectively
as non-bag holders.
Yeah.
It's not great.
I'm curious to think of the binding.
Immediately, before they're even inaugurated,
launches a meme coin
and then his wife launches a fucking meme coin.
And then you find out who advised the wife.
Is that Hayden Davis?
Yeah, Hayden Davis or is that?
Yeah, Hayden.
Yeah.
They did a good job bearing that though.
Like the American public does not know who Hayden Davis is.
It's impressive how much I feel like no one,
because people hate crypto so much. So like they don't hate the Trump's like rugged crypto coins.
Like they don't, that is a non-factor to them
they're like well fuck crypto anyway like they deserve to be wrecked I mean one thing about
Trump though is no one hired no one elected him no one voted for him because like this is a guy
who's not going to make money himself you know it's it's like they also people don't expect him
to be honest it's like a lot of the things that people like oh but he lied but he but he did these
things that were unethical financially it's like no one who voted for him didn't know that
that's just kind of part of who this guy is like the shrelly trump token with baron trump
oh art and strelly was ready to go to war for baron trump yeah that's that's buried in the
lore i mean i know folks who maybe not quite like
normie's status normie's did buy the trump coin for sure right like that thing had a lot of holders
so some of them they got rinsed like imagine that was your onboarding imagine that you're like oh i
haven't found a coin i want but like i like trump i'm gonna buy the coin and then the you know next
six months you're down 90 the skill issue the trenches you're not gonna
want to buy more coins you're not gonna think like oh well uh i'm sure i'll i'll buy the right
coin next time well let's talk about a coin that i do want to buy and i don't have that's
hi looking quite good last week you were looking for an entry i remember i know the phrase still looking for an entry was
uttered it had another huge weekend it was in the bloomberg headlines once again as the you know the
the market where you can trade oil 24 7 which i think that bloomberg article is now a local top
sign like if you see the bloomberg hyper liquid article about that asset it is uh it's a local top sign. If you see a Bloomberg Hyperliquid article about that asset, it's a
local top.
But Hype has
that as kind of like the soft
bull
drive right now.
And then they've got, well,
the fundamentals are the hip volume is
up and to the right. So their actual
volumes tied to it would have been fantastic.
Now a couple features dropping. So they got this new margin. Folks are going to be able to borrow up to a million right. So their actual volumes tied to it would have been fantastic. Now a couple of features dropping.
So they got this new margin.
Folks are going to be able to borrow up to a million bucks.
It looks like based on their portfolios.
And then we've known HIP4 was coming,
which is going to be their version of the prediction markets.
And it looks like that is now live on testnet.
So hype coming for all the assets in the world.
Now it looks like they're coming for prediction markets as well.
These, how are you feeling about hype?
Are you raising your talk?
Oh, we also had Arthur Hayes write his latest blog about hype.
Tell it the best token in crypto.
Do you not remember over the summer when Arthur Hayes was like on stage talking about hype going to a bazillion dollars?
And then like six days later or something something he full stacked his entire hype position and tweeted like
yeah i do think it's gonna go there but we're going lower so fuck it i do yeah i got a little
bit of ptsd from that i mean i am comfy i haven't sold any or thought about selling any. The prediction market stuff I look at a lot,
how I look at the hype EVM stuff where we're looking at metrics that are only tied to the
perpdex and the product of the perpdex. And you get these other secondary upside things like,
oh, the hyper EVM could be sick and could have all this you know extra opportunity
on it oh prediction markets could be sick like this could flip polymarket and call she it's like
in my head purely just upside it's not really baked into why i own the token or why i
like holding the token um but it is just pure upside to like well if any of this stuff
is actualized and what they think it's going to be. It's just even more upside for this token.
It's a good way to look at it.
Like,
am I rushing to use the prediction market when it opens up?
Like probably not.
But,
you know,
I don't really use HyperEVM that much either.
So I'm excited to see how it does.
I don't think it's going to do badly.
Yeah, I'm curious.
I mean, we've seen some of the bigger players
kind of launch prediction markets
on top of what they had,
like what Coinbase did.
I think a few of the other bigger exchanges had.
I don't know if they've gotten a whole lot of traction.
I mean, just the competition
in the prediction market space right now,
I wasn't super aware of what was going on. I was in college when like Fandle and DraftKings were blowing up and there was everybody and their mom trying to make a new draft product.
But it feels like similar to that to me where you have like Cauchy and Polymarket who are very clear established dominating winners right now. They're getting, I don't know what percent of the prediction market volume, but it's got to be over like 95%, right? Or over 90%. And we just see like, you know,
underdog is pivoting to prediction markets. We see these other entities that weren't even
crypto entities thinking like, we got to do prediction markets now. It's like,
I don't want to stay there late because like anything can happen
but like to me the prediction market space almost feels pre-one um and i don't know if that's right
or wrong take but like i feel like in five years it's prediction markets are a thing it's going to
be polymarket and kalshi it's not going to be because like a new prediction market came and
unseated them but i could also just be completely off base there i mean the interesting thing is how much it's really calci i think like
polymarket i mean calci because calci is the engine buying robinette and all these platforms
are literally just powered by calci's liquidity and it's it's i mean that was the edge uber had
is like it's just very hard to build.
Like with Uber, we needed tons and tons of drivers in every city because that's what
makes wait times low.
And if wait times are 25 minutes, no one books you.
And if drivers are spending more time going to pick you up than they are driving you because
they don't get paid for their pickup and they do get paid for their driving, then they're
not going to be on your platform.
So just like the network effects of Uber made it so hard for anyone to break in.
And the only way to do it was to come in and pay drivers $10 for every ride that riders
paid $5 for.
And then you have to kind of be in a different funding environment to do that.
So I don't know.
I'm pretty, I don't know.
I think that these companies have lots of risk in them because of just the regulatory.
I mean, again, it's just sketchy as hell.
You have huge donors who are behind them.
You have Trump Jr. behind them, and then the CFTC is just completely in the hands of the administration.
But it's not always going to be the CFTC.
So I think there are risks on a regulatory side.
But from a competition side but like from a
competition side it feels like there's a lot of a lot of moat here are you a buyer at 20 billion
the latest valuation i don't know man one of my best friends is uh pretty senior at one of those
companies and i don't know man they're feeling good we should be a buyer we all should have
worked there i mean i could have. We all should have worked there.
I mean, we all could have done the ICO beast move, you know?
Dude, I said no to both platforms.
I was going to say, exactly.
You're just in here podcasting with a Fidens on your wall,
so you're good.
Yeah, there's things about both of them
that rub me the wrong ways from the very top.
I can't work for people i don't respect like that's
just the norm star of mine and like i couldn't work for either those companies i don't very
hard to put your reputation and public face behind something you don't believe in yeah
especially like people who i feel like are very likely to be dishonest with me, um, at the top.
So, yeah, I'm not sure that the best managed companies, but I think, I think, um,
yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, the only real case for this shit is like, just let people
do whatever the fuck they want with their money. Like, I feel like that is the case. It's just like
a total freedom play. Let people transfer all their wealth to the shareholders of these companies without
restriction just let them fucking do it i am very curious what this is going to mean for a potential
poly token so i mean they're at 20 billion now they're effectively doubling every three to five
months poly raised in in October at nine.
Kaoshi raised, I think, December at 10, 10 or 11.
So they both have doubled since then.
The volumes are continuing to go up and to the right. I have to imagine they're going to be even higher during 2026 midterms.
Let's wait till March Madness, dude.
March Madness is going to be huge.
And then we'll have World Cup.
Or, yeah.
Yeah, World Cup will be the summer.
And that into midterms.
So this was a golden.
It was a great thing about being a sports gambling platform.
There's always something around the corner.
I mean, we got so many professional leagues.
Well, that's the thing, too, about the prediction market.
It's, like, still predominantly dominated by sports.
It's not, I would say want to say breaking out in other ways
as much as I expected it to, but
I guess that's all I can say.
I thought other markets that weren't
sports would
have more
volume, but sports are consistent
and bombing
Middle East isn't, so I understand
that, but it's
still... It's also the one market that doesn't
really have insiders you know it's sports i mean obviously that will get laughed at and a bunch of
people well well the nba betting scandal but like besides i know the spirit of what you're saying
is in general yeah if you're watching oklahoma city play play the nuggets you're not like oh don don jr has his friends who have insider information on this i'm gonna get
fucked with no you know it's like well terry rogier is going to uh leave this game early and
not return after his buddies all bet the under on him like yeah no tales all this time like there
is that but i don't know if that i feel like at the end of the day, like,
if it's the third quarter and you're betting on a basketball game,
it's a 50-50 bet relative to the market.
Like, to someone who has equal information and equal skill.
Real quick, last week, sports were 40% of Polymarket's notional volume.
$1 billion out of 2.5.
Kaichi, oh, $2 billion out of 2.5. Kaichi...
Oh, 1.2 billion out of 2.8.
So that's... I don't buy Polymarket data
because it's getting farmed to all hell.
There's also no fees on Polymarket.
No fees in farming.
It's almost like the data is pointless.
Yeah.
It's like looking at NFT data back in the heyday.
Then the other headline,
which is another blur data,
another bullet in the thesis that sports is,
you know,
their most important market right now.
Polymarket tapping Palantir to police their sports sector.
This one surprised me.
This just came out this morning.
Polymarket enlisting firms,
including Palantir police sports contracts, trying to prevent and report suspicious activity, include screening against existing lists of participants already banned from sports betting.
So they're going effectively after folks who should not be sports betting.
Or people who should be.
They just go after people who are good, right?
Or is this like going after Pete Rose when he's betting on the Reds? or people who should be like they just go after people who are good right or are you saying or
is this like going after pete rose when he's betting on the reds i think it's the former
i think my interpretation of this is they're going after like sharps maybe i'm wrong about that
maybe like it's suspicious activity is like winning that's the suspicious activity here
that they're going after they're like hey dude like
who's banned participants already banned from sports betting i'm trying to think like who
who's on i guess like it aren't like players and officials and people involved with all the games
technically banned from doing it like is it taking measures against them maybe that's what i can't
imagine that reads like we're taking measures against them maybe that's what i can't imagine that reads like we're
taking measures against the people banned from draft kings and fandal who are you know one of
the 0.001 percent who've actually made money in this snake pit of an environment and we're gonna
ban them from trying to make money in the free market version of it like i don't there's no way
that that can be right i don't know we'll have to wait
for more than uh i would guess it would be like they're working to block you know refs and
it's supposed to be inside members it's supposed to be in theory it would be yeah folks who could
perhaps impact outcomes maybe this is still tied to stuff like the super thing about
one thing about running a business is you want your users to have a fair experience
and if there are you know making money over the next year isn't going to do any like yeah well
but like if it's because if it's because of activity that um makes it a less attractive
experience for your users like them always losing because things are rigged
and you get thrown in jail or whatever,
or you get in trouble with regulators
and you become a public enemy,
that's not going to help anybody.
So companies at the end of the day want to,
and I think an existential threat,
but certainly one of the things these guys don't like
is unfair experiences.
They make money on volume.
They don't make money on, you know. So at the end of the things these guys don't like is unfair experiences. They make money on volume. They don't make money on, you know.
So at the end of the day, it's not surprising to me that they're going to pull out all the
stops to make sure that every user has as fair of an experience as possible.
And that's good.
If you're going to raise money, you should do stuff like this to make it fair.
And then you can make the case that you're helping the industry.
And that's what these guys want to do it's interesting
right cracking down inside trading i think would be applauded but there was also a point in time
where folks said inside trading was a feature i mean brian i was just brian brian armstrong said
that on an earnings call like these guys are idiots you know it's like what but the other
thing though in life is you you know ceos say a lot of stuff. Yeah. You know, and it's, yeah, that sentence is etched in my head.
And I'm like, what if every sentence I've said on one of these calls was etched in someone's head?
I'd be in trouble.
I'd be in trouble.
I'd be in trouble.
Just today, I'd be in trouble.
Trump would come after me.
You know who else is in trouble just before we wrap up the show?
Folks who haven't sold their ordinals yet.
Wait, what's it? Why are you calling me out in the show, Tyler?
Are you saying that's the only guy who has no interface?
Behind his right ear?
They already took him down.
I wasn't ready.
I thought we had more time.
Go to SatFlow.
SatFlow.com.
Oh, okay.
All right.
We're okay.
We're okay.
It's just Magic Eden, folks.
There is some like...
We're going to rally on SatFlow.
Yeah, if you had like listings on Magic Eden
that you didn't cancel or something,
they can like be bought in the future
because they're still out there.
So that was the one thing I think
that I went through and made sure I didn't have any.
Oh no, I hope none of my orgs still.
Oh my God, that would be so terrible
if that puppet I listed for half a bitcoin
sold oh that would be the worst day of my life i would really hope that would happen
i want to have a proper funeral one day but they can't die
runes what about runes they're dead yeah so we can at least have one for for runes and then that
also reminded me folks that nifty gateway time uh clock is
ticking as well yeah i think you have another month they also came out and i guess i'll give
uh props to them because i'm normally pretty harsh with them they did say that even if you
aren't able to hit the deadline they will work with those people to get their stuff off later
like they basically came out and explicitly said they're not going to just
take your stuff
after the death of life.
We appreciate that.
Which is good
because they have millions of dollars
worth of stuff still.
Yeah, I've got some cool stuff in there.
Some of the original art pieces
I ever bought.
Yeah, April 23rd
is how long you have
before you'd have to get them involved.
It's going to stop
like a month and a half.
Yeah.
I have the og starbucks
nfts a handful of others my masks were on there i did pull my mask off but that's a pretty big
collection so there's a lot of assets on there um we'll cover that in another show folks we're
at the hour mark but i want to thank all of our folks who have held on this long. We're going to reward a couple of lucky folks with some yeet money.
So we're going to spend the wheel two times $500 each.
It looks like this might be our bronze and silver run here.
And yeah, it was going to do one unranked, one minimum dollar,
$1 minimum weight spend,
and then one silver 250.
all right,
so this will be our weighted wheel and producer Charlie,
whenever you're ready.
There we go.
Flying Nakamoto.
He was the heavy favorite going into that spin.
The weighted wheel, dude.
You got to love how probabilities work.
That rewards the users who are active.
And now we will do our
this will be our silver plus
250. So for those who are silver
had done 250 volume in the last week.
This one should be more even.
Let's look at the wheel.
Alright. And so let's folks for this one should be more even. Let's look at the wheel. All right. And so less folks will cooperate
for this one. All right. There are two folks, I think, active in the comments today. So congrats
you both won $500. Again, per the team, you got to log in, you'll claim $100 per day,
five days. Make sure you know that and you can reach out to the team. You got to log in. You'll claim $100 per day, five days. Make sure you know that
and you can reach out to the team. They'll help you with any questions on that. Well, folks,
want to thank all of our listeners for tuning in today. Stash, thank you for joining us. We'll
have to have you on more frequently for the show. You really loved the chat here today.
Deez, thank you as well. Folks, we'll be back next tuesday until then have a great week goodbye
