We'll be right back. All right, GM, GM, everyone, and welcome to episode 20 of Underexposed.
20 episodes in to our weekly macro show,
hitting all the biggest topics and trends impacting crypto and web 3.
Today is Tuesday, April 8th, and another week has gone by that felt like a month, maybe a quarter.
We had Liberation Day, surprising amount of tariffs, a chat GPT scandal, no negotiations,
a lot of negotiations, and escalating
trade war with China is playing out in real time. Now we're trying to figure out what
the hell this means for crypto, if we're closer to the end of pain or the beginning. We're
going to get into all of it on today's show. I'm your host, Tyler D., and I've got my co-host
in the house, starting with D's art collector, coin stacker, and trader wearing the wrecked hat. Dees, GM, how are you doing? Doing well, man. Just enjoying this turbulent market and doing a whole
bunch of sitting and waiting. Turbulent is an understatement, but sitting and waiting may be
the right strategy. Folks, we've got Peter Jennings on with us, founder of several companies,
but still finds time to spend with us. Peter, GM, how are you doing? Doing great. Yeah, the theme of piercing volatility
seems to be playing out throughout the year. That's one thing a good friend, Brandon Adams,
got right. That was the main thing he talked about coming into the year, and I've been preaching that,
and oh boy, the volatility has absolutely been piercing. Maybe that should be the title of the show. Actually. I think it's
been mentioned every time since episode one is this piercing volatility. And here we are
experiencing it still week over week, every single week. And it's not going to slow down anytime
soon. It doesn't seem like. Jeeps, shout out to you. Early stage crypto VC dabbling in internet capital markets wears a lot of hats, including
that slick fractional hat.
Just another day in paradise.
You know, times like these are, they're turbulent.
But hey, we have dire wolves now.
I want to get into that with you later in the show.
We need to talk about the direwolves.
And are we actually going to have Jurassic Park in 2035?
Are we 10 years away from this?
It's looking like we're closer than further away now.
We're definitely closer than further away.
So we got to talk about that.
We'll talk about tariff again,
a lighter week of crypto headlines, but a couple of big blockbuster pieces of news,
the White House coming out and talking about perhaps no longer wanting the US dollar to be
the global reserve and a whole lot more. Before we get into it, folks, today's show is powered
by Wallet Connect. Wallet Connect is the connectivity network shaping the future of on-chain UX.
If you've connected to a Web3 app, you've seen Wallet Connect.
That blue logo, it's everywhere.
An icon of trust in crypto, as recognizable as Visa at the checkout.
If you want to learn more, follow at Wallet Connect on X and Telegram to stay ahead of what's next. And folks, the big news this week out of Wallet Connect is they're getting closer and closer to that token, the WCT token, being live for trading.
They just announced a huge new launch partner in OKX with those WCT token deposits going live on April 15th at 10 a.m. UTC.
So be on the lookout for that. Shout out to Wallet Connect as always.
Before we get started, quick disclosure, the opinions expressed on this podcast are those
of the speakers and do not reflect the views or opinions of any organizations they are associated
with. We are here to share insights, provoke thought, and maybe even stir some debate,
but this is not, and I repeat, not financial advice. While we talk about markets, investments,
and trends, remember your financial decisions should be made with the help of your own research
or with advice from a licensed professional. All right, now let's get into it. I'm going to fire
up the screen share here for those in the stream. We'll get that stream link tweeted out here in
just a minute. But rewinding this past week, the first headline, we had Liberation Day on Wednesday.
Tariff rates came out way higher than anticipated.
It doesn't seem like they wanted to negotiate in the early days.
It leads to what looked like the worst three-day stretch for equities in history.
Sunday night looked like that we were going to have a Black Monday event yesterday.
But then we got a change in rhetoric, some talk of deals. We did get a bit of a market rebound on Monday. This came amidst several pro-Trump leaders out there kind of speaking out against tariffs
and trying to get them walked back to a degree.
So Bill Ackman was a big part of that.
We had the White House release a statement yesterday.
This is from their Council of Economic Advisors, but they basically said that there's
a lot of downside to the US dollar being the global reserve, that other countries have been
riding the US's coattails for too long, and everyone has to pay their own fair price.
Since we've had a market rebound since then, we thought it was going to be turnaround Tuesday.
Stocks opened big green. Crypto is big green as well. It looks like
crypto is starting to sell off a bit here. Bitcoin basically even on the day. It's down
8% on the week, 78,350. ETH down 20% on the week, 1530. That ETH Bitcoin ratio continues to find
new lows. Folks, I'm not sure if you saw this. At one point on Monday morning, it would have cost you 52 ETH for one
Bitcoin. One of the largest that I've seen, and I think it's the largest in about five years.
Sol briefly went sub 100. It looks like it's back to 109 here this morning. That's still down 17%
of the week. Ripple had one of the biggest stories in the crypto space on the week. So they just announced an acquisition of Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, one of the largest crypto acquisitions
of all time. And this comes amidst Circle plans to IPO. Now there's talks that maybe they might
delay it, perhaps tied to that FUD related to the fees that Coinbase is charging them. So those were some of the headlines from this past week. There's a whole
lot of directions to go, a lot to unpack. Peter, I'll toss it to you first. Maybe highest level
reactions to Liberation Day? Yeah, I was pretty disappointed with Liberation Day, to be honest.
of what this administration was talking about made sense and then the execution of the the tariffs um
with the big board and just the calculations um don't seem to make sense a lot of people are
confused uh you know they put tariffs on an island populated by penguins uh which has got a lot of
news but like just clearly uh the competence around this didn has got a lot of news, but like just clearly the competence
around this didn't make a lot of sense to me. I think the main target here is China,
which Besant and others have talked about, Trump included extensively. So I just think the
strategy around this could have been executed a lot better. So from that perspective, it was
super disappointing given kind of the confidence
that I've had in this administration relative to Trump 1.0. I just thought there was a lot of smart
people around Trump to kind of execute some of these strategies. So, you know, we first saw the
10-year drop, which is, you know, the main goal for Besant, which, you know, would be the big
positive to take away from this, that plus energy prices going down.
But if you're going to do that with the stock market going down as dramatically as it has,
that's concerning. And then, you know, coming into this week, you have this volatility and equities and the 10 years done the opposite. Now, I'm not as concerned about the 10 year in the short term,
because my view on what's happening
here is that the Chinese and possibly even the Japanese, although we'll see if we can negotiate
something there, those are the two biggest holders of US debt. And if they start unloading that debt
into the market, it's going to make yields rise. So I imagine that's a big part of this. I think
we'll start to see basically trade war to currency war,
hopefully not a real war, World War III with China, but that's kind of what's transpiring
here in yield. So we'll see. There's a lot of cross currents. I think the big risk here is
we're walking a tightrope. I'm concerned about a real recession. Once that genie's out of the
bottle, it's really hard to kind of reverse
things. So that's my concern. And also just talking with, you know, a lot of my entrepreneur
friends, people who own businesses, they're kind of at a standstill not knowing what to do. And
that's the other hard part is that businesses need confidence. They're planning for long periods of
time. And, you know, especially if you're a company like, let's say, Nike, like, what do you do now?
You were told to move to Vietnam. Now you have all this uncertainty.
They can't just like turn their supply chain around, you know, quickly.
They've put a ton of money and energy into this infrastructure.
And there's plenty of other companies that are the same way.
So it's really difficult for these companies to plan and markets and companies hate uncertainty.
So there's a lot of encouraging things.
we've been broadly bullish on kind of how this administration's handled crypto. They didn't give
into like a lot of the short-term gains. Of course, you can point to, you know, some things like the
Trump token, which probably I don't think we were that excited about, but SACS and a lot of the
policies that they've put into place have been, you know, long-term minded in my eyes. And I've
been really encouraged by a lot of the other policies that have been put into place have been long-term minded in my eyes. And I've been really encouraged by a lot of the
other policies that have been put into place. And then we have Liberation Day, which felt like
a debacle from my end. So certainly concerned. It's really hard if you are sitting on a lot of
risk on assets, what to do. Generally, we've been trained to kind of buy the dip and we've seen that.
I think Friday was like the largest trading day by retail, just buying the dip.
That works until it doesn't.
It's really, really hard.
I don't have a ton of conviction on what to do.
I've kind of just been sitting on my hands with my portfolio.
The last thing I'll mention that I'm sure a lot of people are kicking themselves.
I am dealing with a ton of regret. Jeeps and I went out to lunch. I had a lot of conviction around sell the inauguration for crypto specifically. I acted on that to a degree,
but the Trump token really kind of put my mind in a blender. And boy, sell the inauguration
across the board. How good does that look crypto equities I
mean if you had the foresight to do that you are sitting really pretty right now so uh I do think
there's a lesson there that broadly you want to be um you know basically buying some of the hype
and then when the news actually comes to fruition you want to be selling that so uh that's something
we've seen play out a ton in crypto and certainly has been the case thus far with this administration that was the pico top right but then
then a day of melania coming out all we had to do was sell it all and walk away
another just sign like all i like as soon as the melania thing happened right like i don't know a
single person in crypto or in markets that's you know, somewhat rational that was like, oh, this is good. Everyone just knew is a huge grift.
And yeah, easy in hindsight to point out the obvious signs, but that was a big one. And the
main reason I brought that up is just, you know, a lot of people are beating themselves up now and
it's really hard to time these things. So even though I was telling my friends and family
that I was going to be selling the inauguration,
I still didn't execute as well as, you know,
I wish I would have at this point in time.
So it's hard for everyone out there.
And now everyone's wrestling with the decision,
okay, you didn't sell the inauguration,
but it's selling now the right time.
And it's tricky because we're already so far off and you went into a lot.
I appreciate your update.
One initial question slash reaction.
So what's your take on these numbers on the chart? Is this just starting negotiation tactic or was this actually
trump going rogue and then it really took besant talking some sense into him on sunday night
to start these negotiations do you have a read my read which i don't have conviction around but uh my read is that this is trump and and lutnik um that made kind of these decisions and besant's
like whoa whoa whoa guys what the hell are we doing and nowin's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, guys, what the hell are
we doing? And now it's like, okay, let's get the real adult in the room to go negotiate.
And I love seeing that Bestin's going to negotiate directly with Japan. That's a military and
economic ally. They are the largest holder of our debt and we do not want any type of war with
Japan. So I have the utmost confidence in Besson.
He's maybe my favorite person I've ever had,
my lifetime that's been in politics.
So I have a ton of confidence
and would love for him to be negotiating and making deals.
That's what we want and that's the emphasis that he's had.
Lutnik is scaring me more day by day personally,
but we'll see what happens.
And yeah, I don't understand.
I mean, there's tons of content out there.
And regardless of what side you are on the political aisle, I think kind of the consensus
was that a lot of these numbers didn't make sense.
Do you think Lutnick gets fired?
I would be surprised just given the history that they have.
You know, what we're seeing now is Navarro looks like maybe
the scapegoat in all of this. Elon is going after him relentlessly. We'll see. I'm not sure. And
again, your questions sell now. It's really hard to have conviction in what to do. I've tried to
consume as much content as I can. I've listened
to people I really respect, and it's just really hard to have a lot of conviction on what to do at
this moment in time. So when you don't have conviction, I think the best course of action
is just kind of turn things off and then come back as you get more certainty. And obviously,
it's dependent on the person and kind of your life situation but uh you know if you don't need to sell um broadly it's been better
just time in the market to kind of just sit in your hands but it's certainly hard with all the
fear out there right now there's clearly always i always go back to what you've been saying for
years peter it's just like insulate your lifestyle. And when things are good, constantly take money off the table. When times are, you know, as they are
right now, it's harder to take money off the table unless you absolutely need it to live over the
next year or so. So I'm just always thinking about that for like five years now or however long I've
known you. The lifestyle chip. I love the lifestyle chips you gotta take them off um and it's hard it's
really hard and that's the interesting thing too like and i'd love to kick around the horn
like my instincts during uh or my emotion i guess i would say is when things are going good it's
like how can i go farther out on the risk curve like what other things can i I find? Like, you know, 3X or 4X or 5X?
You're not really thinking about selling any of your stuff.
You're like, oh, I can't imagine selling Bitcoin or Sol or anything like that.
Like I want to keep finding wins.
And then when things are down, it's like, okay, what can I sell?
And that's the hard part.
And everyone is going through that.
And, you know, the best thing that you can have right now is just stable income and the the ability to dca into stuff that
you want to own for the long term and we haven't talked about bitcoin yet i think bitcoin's set up
as well as ever uh have more conviction in bitcoin than i ever have um so i feel really confident
kind of long term about that barring you know some of these black
swan events but uh there's there's certainly things that you can point to uh if you're a
long-term investor that you'd want to be accumulating um at these prices yeah one of
the nicest charts i was just looking at is the monthly on the bitcoin dominance chart
it has just been up and to the right since November of 2022.
I'll pull that up here. But Jeeps, while we're chatting, I'm trying to pull that up. What was
your reaction to Liberation to High Level? Yeah. I mean, look, I agree with a lot of what Peter
was saying. Him and I, we got lunch the other day. We covered a bunch of different topics, but
generally tariffs can be used as a
tool. And they're obviously doing that, but the execution has just been sort of disappointing so
far. So look, I'm forward looking now. I'm optimistic at this point that the administration
will secure a handful of deals. It's clear that they're announcing them. They had Benjamin Netanyahu there yesterday.
They clearly were trying to roadshow that we're here, we're open for business, we're looking to
work with countries. But the reality is that the biggest deal on the table right now is locking in
China. And there's some retaliation and some back and forth going on between the US and China right
now. I just saw Besson saying that
China escalating things was a quote unquote big mistake. Yeah, got this one here. And so he believes
that China is playing a losing hand here. You can make the argument too, China's not really in a
great spot, right? They've been issuing stimulus lately. It's clear that there's been issues there
with the real estate market.
Can they afford or do they want to have another major problem here? I think the reality though, is that it's almost like they're playing chicken a little bit. I think China's calling Trump's bluff
in a way, and they're just going, hey, look, it's really clear what you're doing with tariffs to use
them as a negotiation tool. And you don't with tariffs to use them as a negotiation tool.
And you don't necessarily want to use these as a long-term viable revenue generation stream.
So I think it's important just to look at the countries that are saying, hey, look, I don't believe what you're saying. I think you're using it for this and we'll work with you, but you're
not going to rake us over the coals. So I think the china deal will come but it will take a while so where do we land if we over the next two months we we negotiate with 70 countries
but the china situation still continues to escalate like we get better deals lower tariff rates
deals, lower tariff rates on Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the EU, but we're unable to deescalate
this. Is that considered a win? Materiality is the biggest thing I'm looking for there.
It's going to be 70 countries that we are not major trade partners with, but if we're starting
to hit a lot of the major trade partners and it's material i think that's when it's important from a game theory perspective that's
what makes sense right make deals quickly cheer up your alliances with your allies and like
have great trade deals and then continue to kind of work even with you know potentially if you can
make some deals with you know china's allies um you know that that puts you in a pretty good spot. And then you can try
to choke off China to a degree. It's just going to be hard. And the more you force China into a
corner, one second order effect here is what's going to happen with Taiwan? I mean, the more
we push China, don't you think that makes them more likely to pursue the acquisition of Taiwan,
which that alone could be the start of an actual war.
So there's just so many things in the balance right now. And to your point, Tyler, and your
question, I do think there's a lot of validity if we can make these deals. It's just a matter of,
like, are we actually going to do it? And I just keep going back to, like, the art of the deal for
Trump. And he just has an absolute desire to get in these spots.
And yeah, another frustration, I'll just throw one other thing.
But Trump golfing over the weekend and shooting that 68 to win the championship and making sure everyone knows.
Like I thought Trump had matured in some ways.
I absolutely hate seeing stuff like that.
Just like the ego is out of control when there's all these real problems.
Like no one cares about your golf and your made- score, dude. So, um, I'll get off
my high horse, but there's this total who thinks he's a narcissistic authoritarian and he will,
he will display signs of reason and logic. And then amidst the most important weekend after
this, as tariff again again is playing out in markets,
which is more Kim Jong-un than anything else.
I was like, I was, you know, again,
I don't want to go too much into politics,
but like I was not a Trump guy before.
And then this time around, I'm like banging the drum, having all these debates with people.
And I'm like, look, we got all these good things.
And then, I mean, the Trump haters, they are just getting extreme validation right now.
And that is another sad thing.
Like, this is not great for the country.
We want to be in a good spot.
It's not fun when, you know, these people are gleeful about Trump falling on his face.
That's not what we need as a country.
You know, Trump's saying like, you know, we have to take some medicine.
I think now it's like, well, how long till this medicine produces some results? Because the reality is like if the markets really can't get back to all time highs, if not better, as we start to near midterms, it's going to be really concerning.
And I think they know that. I think they're aware of that.
They have to be. That's pretty common sense.
I'm trying to figure out what's the path back to all-time highs. What is the bull case here? And I think there could be multiple paths.
One is if China wants to go the route of
devaluing their currency and effectively printing,
is that going to be a stimulus that pumps markets or at least pumps Bitcoin?
Some folks like Arthur Hayes calling for that as a near-term bull case for Bitcoin.
Do we need to see the negotiations?
Is there a path on the table at an all-time high in this new negotiated tariff world?
Is it for Bitcoin or S&P?
Yeah, Bitcoin and or S&P.
I mean, tariffs are front and center.
I think we need some type of reassurance that things are settling there.
And then it almost goes back, Tyler, to that paper I'd written earlier this year on the bull cases for tariffs.
De-escalation, like Peter said, China, Taiwan, China could be looking at the US and seeing it potentially really weak with allies and potential time to strike, which I think could be really concerning.
I don't think that's the base case, but you just never know.
the base case, but you just never know. But I think de-escalation in general is really bullish.
So de-escalation, Russia, Ukraine, de-escalation, Middle East, de-escalation, China, Taiwan
are really bullish signals that could come out. And then I don't know, some tax reform,
like we've yet to see any tax reform and then just rates in general coming down. Those are
some of the things that come top of mind. I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of stuff.
I think it's really easy to see all-time highs.
I mean, what you just said plays out.
Some really strong deregulation comes into play.
I mean, there's certainly a playbook of just like boom, boom, boom.
All these deals are done.
The war in Russia, Ukraine's over.
You know, de-escalation around the world.
one thing I really loved about what Trump said initially when he was getting inaugurated was he
wants to be known in his legacy as a peacemaker. And, you know, we just are in a position where
all this stuff happens quickly. And that's one thing you got to give credit to this administration
for things are moving extremely fast. So that would be the bull case. And we enter into
this golden age and people are super stoked. But just a matter of what's the probability of that?
Because it's also easy to paint some scenarios where, you know, we do go into a recession,
you know, imagine a real war actually breaks out between major players. I mean, there's some really
big downside risk as well. So it's just assigning probabilities to all the different outcomes.
Right. I actually missed that Trump said he wanted the peacetime to be one of his legacies.
So that is somewhat reassuring. I think I saw that they passed their $1 trillion defense spending bill today.
I'm actually in the camp that spending on defense makes a ton of sense,
and that's probably the easiest way to ensure peace.
But that's a longer conversation.
Dee, I haven't had a chance to really check in with you.
Post-Liberation Day, how are you feeling?
Reactions slash anything on the crypto front that's jumping out to you here
just sick of winning man just sick and tired of winning there's been so much winning and uh this
is just another massive win that i'm sick and tired of so no i um i had very low expectations
going in and i think um those low expectations were met with lower prices and yeah i don't really have any comment um like
i i've said it before i'll say again like i didn't vote in the election i was pretty uh indifferent
toward what happened and um yeah just no confidence really in the leadership in this country so
is there so we've got bitcoin going back below 78k here. 77.9. Do you have a low-end target where you're pulling capital out of the bank and buying back in?
I would need to see a big liquidation cascade and some type of major stock market dip.
It's more like a percent move um
you know say we had a crash down to the mid 50s like that would be pretty enticing to to pull
some capital out um but like 70k 77k i don't really care enough to pull out capital for that. Now, if we just see like 15, 20, 25% dump in one day,
that looks like it's people who are over levered
having to be forced sellers
and causing the price to go down more than it should.
That's what I would look to buy.
But if it's a slow bleed down the 60K,
I want to buy more of like the big liquidation cascade than I want
Well, one of our favorite tokens
I'm not buying ETH, sadly.
my exposure to ETH is all NFTs,
right? So if ETH does well,
these fucking JPEGs will.
We're starting to see some of these JPEGs
just because people are looking at the USD price
and being like, wow, this is cheap.
which are kind of holding steady
in that mid mid 40s range
which the the bet where i sold a bitcoin to buy a punk isn't looking great right now i think
there's like a 14 000 gap but yeah we're losing the punk bitcoin spread i'm just glad i didn't
buy eth with that bitcoin and i bought a punk instead so i'd be losing more. That is the upside. That's about it.
But yeah, I'm kind of just on my hands here.
And it's hard to buy these slow grinds down
unless your time horizon is truly like multiple years, right?
And I already have kind of a long-term bag
and don't feel the need to add a ton
to right now. Also, I don't have a stable income, right? Like I have very little cashflow. So I
have to look at everything through a different lens than people who have their monthly expenses
covered from income. Sure. That makes total sense. Jeebs brought up uh this this bitcoin dominance chart is it is it ever going to
stop he's just going to continue what is the this is this is one of the best charts in crypto man
i mean this is the downfall of ethereum in front you. We're going to see 75 ETH for one Bitcoin in 2025.
That's another 50% move from here in the ratio.
It's roughly 50 right now.
How does ETH get back to 3K plus at this point?
We're talking 2X from here.
from here what's the road bitcoin to 200 000
a couple eric trump tweets away james
man that now looks like i was getting rained on the basketball court the other day
now looks like a great time to put your life savings into eat and then it's down 50 percent
i i guess like the only bull case that i have for ETH right now is that another one of the
things we had talked about prior, wealth managers are recommending a split Bitcoin ETH, maybe
something else in retirement accounts.
There's a heavy bid coming from that.
That's the only bull case.
Otherwise, there's a lot more bear cases I could build in my head
or just cases for it to be priced appropriately around here.
The institutional play is really the biggest one.
And look, they can all build there.
They can all build within the ecosystem.
But I'll have more info on this this uh this one next week tyler but you know as
our little rwa round table discussion has it every week i've been looking into how just how many big
you know rwa layer ones or layer twos are there and right now i've assembled a list of 13 and i
think there's at least a few more but these these are 13 major players. And I think there's
just so much dispersion going on in the RWA space. And some of these that are layer ones,
they're not going to be bringing a ton of economic value to Ethereum the chain. They're going to be
focused on bringing private credit on chain, bringing debt on chain, bringing assets on chain.
So that doesn't necessarily help ETH.
And even the layer twos that are doing this, because of how layer twos are now subsidized,
there's also not a really great base case for ETH to go up there as well.
So I'm having trouble even when people like the institutions are coming
and RWAs are being built on ETH.
I still can't come up with a good base case for the actual value of Ethereum
to go up other than, oh, I should own this asset because it's the network I'm
using. Because if you're interacting on a layer two, oftentimes gas is just so
cheap. You know, I think we had seen some reports recently about how much
economic value mainnet has lost over the past year since they introduced blob storage. And
the demand required to get back to where that would be is astronomical. So
I can't even use that as a narrative anymore.
You know what might have stronger narrative? I can't believe use that as a narrative anymore. You know what might have stronger narrative?
I can't believe I'm saying this.
Does Ripple have a stronger narrative?
Ripple's an interesting one.
Yeah, we have one of our friends that hoops with us.
And I've talked to a number of people who are big Ripple fans,
and they have trouble explaining to me why they're big Ripple fans outside of it going up.
And so good for them that they picked up this prime brokerage. I think I'd read this morning
that it's a distribution play for their RLUSD, which is their stable coin that they've created.
And look, I think if they want to be relevant and
be a major player in this space, they're looking to their stablecoin as being a core component
there. And for them, they need to increase the distribution. At the end of the day,
stablecoin distribution is, in my eyes, probably the biggest metric. So good for them. I mean,
major acquisition. If we want to talk really quickly just about the year ahead,
I think we're looking at a lot of potential crypto IPOs along with,
we're going to see a ton of mergers and acquisitions in the space.
I think it's really clear that the administration is pro merger and acquisition.
Yeah, let's get into it. So we wanted to talk about some some vc activity there's a couple
different takes out there um i've seen some who are saying it's ripe for vc investment and like
the the last dubai deal deal i'm blanking on the the team behind it that two billion dollar deal
is kind of lighting the path up for v investment along with the crypto friendly Trump administration.
But Chow here is kind of saying the opposite. Right.
Yeah. Yeah. I asked him this morning on Twitter and Chow's, I mean, he's on the nose with it.
Him and Imran Khan over at AllianceDAO, one of, if not the top accelerator in crypto.
They've built a number, you know, incubated a
number of households, crypto names. And these guys, you know, they also put out a podcast every
month I'd recommend listening to. They're just kind of on it because they're hands-on with
builders all the time. And so, you know, in this thread, he had mentioned that he saw sort of
venture things slowing down. I'd pointed out to him, you know, if you look at some of the crypto
venture investments have been pretty steady. And this is sort of number in rounds and USD as well
over the past six months or so. So if we scroll down and put some of these on like a yearly chart,
like this one, number of funding rounds here, or actually one more down, Tyler, sorry.
Yeah, this one here, right? If we just put this to a one-year time horizon
up in the top left there yeah
you can see like the number of rounds has stayed relatively steady so far so we're seeing a fair
amount you know across the board here and on the right there you can change it to USD I think this
is slightly down so um yeah, that right there.
There's one outlier month here, which is last month because of that $2 billion investment
So you can see that color represents centralized finance.
So pretty monster month for that space.
But if you look generally, I wouldn't really say it's up or down.
It's kind of just like things peaked in December because a ton of funds needed to make investments.
They wanted to close things out for the year.
But if I'm looking at this, I feel like it's been relatively steady as well over the past six months.
And so Chow points to some less like hard data things, right?
right? This is obviously a lagging indicator. This is data for things that have happened.
This is obviously a lagging indicator.
This is data for things that have happened.
These teams have been raising for, let's call it like three to eight months, maybe to get those
funds. And so I think something to pay attention to here is what Chow is saying, where there's
this sort of soft data where teams are having trouble raising right now. I think there's less
money in the ecosystem. And he's just talking to people in general who are feeling a little less likely to write that check.
And I think he might be right just from general sentiment across the board.
So anyway, yeah, I think there's just like a lot of things like we're going through just a ton of change.
And there's also just dispersion going on as venture investors are wanting to move into
new categories or niche categories. You're seeing a lot of the big funds come in early.
They'll basically lead and take most of the round in a lot of these companies. And they're trying
to take directional bets in either new or emerging industries or sectors within crypto.
The other thing I think to look out for is that real business is becoming a key thing
within crypto venture. I think for a long time, the more pie in the sky or more theoretical your
idea was, the better your odds were to raise a monster round because sky's the limit. People
can use their imagination to see maybe where this entrepreneur's mind is. Maybe it's a
massive changing technology within the space or a different way of looking at things. But I think
now Web3 investing is starting to think more like Web2 investing on the venture side, where people
are really laying down like, what is this business? What are the numbers you were doing? What's the
potential for it? And you're seeing this, I think, even at seed stages right now.
So yeah, I think it'll take time. There's some funds that are still raising rounds right now.
We're seeing a few announcements of venture funds closing rounds, some of them small,
some of them a little bit bigger, but you'll start to see that capital find a home too soon.
So that's a long way to get through that. No, that was great. And I think your takeaway there that we're starting to see more reliance on a real business, capital generating business
is 100%, I think a new trend that we're seeing. And I still think there's a disconnect in the
valuation. So shout out to Yuhu, the founder of Kaido. I think Kaido a disconnect in the valuation. So like shout out to you who the founder of Kaido,
I think Kaido is one of the more exciting protocols. You know,
of course they've had one of the most lucrative token launches or token still
trading at $900 million FTV.
They released their vision and shared a bit about their financials and
effectively said they're annualizing $33 million in revenue,
which is up a hundred X over the last 12 months. their financials and effectively said they're annualizing $33 million in revenue, which
is up 100X over the last 12 months.
So 100X growth in 12 months is incredible.
$33 million in annualized revenue is very strong, but the token's trading at $900 million
right now. So, I mean, Jeeves, if you're wearing your VC hat,
if you see a company who is analyzing $33 million in revenue
and trading it, and they want $900 million valuation,
are you chomping at the bit to buy in?
I think it depends a little bit.
Oftentimes, if you're doing a venture deal, sometimes you're just buying tokens if you're
doing a SAFT, sometimes you're doing just equity if you're doing like a safe round or
But oftentimes the most common way that people are investing in crypto companies right now
is it's called a safe plus token warrant.
And a lot of those are issued at one to one. So at the end of the day, you're going to get
exposure to the underlying company and then upside to the token as well. But I do think
it's important for businesses to really think through how what they're offering with a token
these days. And I'm ensuring that's like a really
important part of it because i think a lot of people are looking at some of these tokens
as investments in equity in the company like no one's really sure oftentimes what they're
buying with a token and what exactly it is and where the value should accrue
interesting well i guess in the in the crypto space specifically i would have thought if you
were investing you would be thinking as the token as your primary way to get liquidity
on that investment versus what's your alternative an ipo or being able to I guess I feel an acquisition yeah okay yeah and so sometimes
like we've made investments in just equity companies and the likely exit for those is
going to be uh an acquisition like we see them as a business that's has a high likelihood of
being acquired in the next call it three to six years at a multiple of the valuation they're raising at now.
Got it. Well, that certainly makes sense. Yeah. A good example there, Tyler, just to be helpful here would be call it like a payments company. Look at a company like Bridge that was acquired
by Stripe. They have no token. They have no plans for a token. They are purely a company that offers
an API suite for moving payments using crypto rails. And they were acquired for a token. They are purely a company that offers an API suite for moving
payments using crypto rails, and they were acquired for a billion dollars. So that's a
great sector of, hey, this is crypto, but it's more of a tech company that's leveraging crypto.
And those are the companies you'd look for for an acquisition target.
Got it. Yeah, that is helpful. Thanks for sharing that. I think,
Jeeps, someone in line, and we can go around the horn on this one here, is Benji.
I think this tweet's going somewhat viral on crypto Twitter.
This might be the most important chart in crypto right now,
and it's this Artemis developer activity chart,
which on the surface paints a picture
that crypto developer activity effectively peaked between 2021 and 2023 and is now down
30 to 50%. It looks like it's continuing to trend down. Curious if you have a read on this. Is this
being talked about in VC circles? Is this a cause for concern? Are there other factors at play here?
You know, Chow kind of pointed this out sort of, right?
Just saying that a little bit less interest in general.
I think there's another way to look at this though, right?
This is just an aggregate of a large measure.
maybe someone was a Solidity developer on ETH
and they've kind of given up on that ecosystem
or developer activity has concentrated elsewhere. validity developer on ETH and they've kind of given up on that ecosystem and they've left or
developer activity has concentrated elsewhere. When you start to look at the chains here,
you know, you can look down below here and this points out the ecosystems that have
sort of changed a lot or changed a little bit. I need to honestly also dive into this specific
metric a bit more and how Artemis is gauging this metric.
I don't know enough about it to say that this is helpful or not helpful.
Cause I know some of their data, you know,
they're still kind of working on a little bit in flight,
but I'd have to figure out exactly how they're gathering that information to
make a, just have like a better thought on it.
Yeah. I think that's fair.
Cause I've seen other data sources like this developer report,
which shows a decline, but it's not quite as significant.
I think there's a lot to unpack here.
There's also just, you know, with the rise of ChatGPT, it's easier to code.
I think there's also this kind of somewhat consensus thought that a lot of the core problems have been solved.
A lot has been built already.
So the need for additional infrastructure,
the need for all this started to decline a bit.
So if you think about it from the perspective of a dev,
what's the opportunity cost of working on Ethereum
versus anything else in the world
right now um are you more enticed by things going on in ai are you more enticed on building an
actual business that you know makes money you kind of are losing airdrop incentives and a lot
of the free money that people were getting last cycle um this guy tim dob.eth put out a really good quote tweet to bingy's tweet it's a long block of text
but it's worth reading and basically you know the incentives just aren't as good as they used to be
and opportunity cost wise there's probably better things to work on if you're a dev
which is you know a sad reality i think for where we're at you know actually these one thought
on that i met up with a professor here at du to talk about crypto and whatnot so she teaches a
couple of blockchain courses here at the school and i was asking her about the blockchain clubs
on campus what they're up to and she had said that a majority of them converted from blockchain clubs to AI clubs.
So I would be curious, Tyler, to see this sort of an overlay of crypto developer activity
with AI developer activity and just see if there's just a huge divergence in those two.
I'd beg to say that probably, especially if you look at the timing here yeah
it's just become so much more accessible over the last few years like i feel like in 2021
we kind of had like rumblings of ai stuff but it was much more like the hyper nerds who were super
in the weeds with it and now it's so accessible you know we got the rise of vibe coding and people who
aren't traditionally devs using like no code tools to dev stuff now and it just feels like 100x more
accessible and i don't think crypto has gotten that much more accessible um yeah in the meantime
that's actually a pretty good point to use you know i'm not a developer but i like to write
some python scripts from time to time
and build some code and projects and stuff.
And when I think about it,
a lot of this is probably tracking GitHub repository activity.
So how often are people actually saving their code up into the Cloud?
That's a good point. I wonder if people are skipping that step entirely.
Having ChatGPT help them build all their code and then they're just running it directly in whatever IDE they're using and just making edits and fixing it all there.
And a lot of them may not bother to even push it up to GitHub.
That could be a driver. I feel like I might be on the opposite side of this.
I understand the AI sector might be more interesting and more enticing right now.
It also feels more competitive.
I feel like the opportunities, like these tokens are still launching at nine and 10 figure valuations almost every week here.
I feel like the opportunities for a payday in crypto are still, they still feel easier to me than I think in the rest of the world.
I feel like there's still lots of opportunities here.
So we'll continue to revisit that.
We've got about 10 minutes left in the show.
We haven't had a chance for,
to talk about Fartcoin yet.
And this is a mandate of the show.
We are contractually obligated to talk about this every week.
But man, we didn't have to beated to talk about this every week. I'm joking here. But man,
we didn't have to be the ones talking about this week because everyone else was
that's because the number one mover
several days over the past week
in the top 100 crypto tokens has been Fartcoin.
It's been leading the way. It is our global
leading indicator. And it's
retracing a little bit right now, which is maybe a sign of concern.
Peter, curious for your thoughts on this one. I know you were eyeing perhaps
an entry. How are you feeling?
Yeah, really the only thing I bought on the dip on everything was Fartcoin.
I actually started DCA-ing and basically right after our show last week, I was just
talking through it. I'm like, I cannot.
I mean, even if I lose all of my money on Fartcoin,
I mean, I just can't emotionally not be involved.
It's just such a great token.
Not financial advice, but yeah, it's pretty cool to see.
And all the content creators and podcasts I really like are talking about it.
We're kind of getting what we wanted from a meme perspective when you're, you know, you're seeing TradFi people say, oh, S&P 500 is down 5 percent.
But don't worry, Fartcoin is up 8 percent, stuff like that.
And then also, I think the really big benefit here is the meme streets have somewhat died on Solana.
You know, you can look at different metrics.
I mean, people are still playing the game.
But in terms of, you know, the hot new token and just the kind of the streets in general,
it certainly, at least for, you know, people who aren't like deep, deep, deep in the streets,
they've kind of given up.
And, you know, the one way to play that still is Fartcoin.
That's basically, from my perspective anyways,
I'd be curious to everyone else's perspective,
but it seems like a lot of that attention is just like,
okay, if I want to be playing a higher beta thing,
something on Salon, I'm just going to do Fartcoin
instead of trying to find the next whatever meme coin of the week.
So that concentration of attention to me is a big benefit for Fartcoin.
And it's also just a much more authentic, organic meme. And I really do think it can be the meme
of our cycle. So I'm super bullish. I DCA'd in. I'm now providing, doing the pools with Fartcoin,
getting back in that street. The volume has been great. So really the only thing I've done, I've sat on my hands for the most part, had a couple
hedges in with traditional markets, crypto not really doing much other than kind of the
stable coin yield farming and bought some Fartcoin.
I certainly could have played this a lot better.
I think my top sale on Fartcoin was like in the mid ones.
And, you know, you guys were touting it well before 10 cents.
My first entries were around that mark.
And I certainly was thinking about buying more when it was going up to like $2 versus selling.
So mistakes have been made, but it's fun to see. And definitely curious your guys' perspective, just in terms of kind of the solana meme ecosystem do you guys share the same sentiment poke holes and kind of what i'm saying in terms of
this being the way to play it now i've got some thoughts d's me i'll toss it to you are are you
uh are you back in the trenches or reactions to peter's thoughts i think peter's generally right
there i think there's some winners but you have to be way more dialed in for them. And I haven't been buying them. I know we talked about it in another chat, Tyler, with some other friends, but I missed out on such great trades such as the housing market and RFC.
The only one I ever regret is fat
just because I've been laughing at these videos
for like a month now and I never bought the token.
It probably makes me just enjoy the videos
more because I'm not checking the price of the token.
I'm just like, oh, this is another fucking hilarious video.
to turn your brain off. Maybe that's
the wrong way to play it because
it's maybe common knowledge, but
if any meme from last year makes it, it's got to be fart coin in my head.
I think what jumped out to me was when Peter's comment that he'd rather go to zero effectively
than, I'm paraphrasing, than to miss the fart coin run.
Yeah, I mean, I'd rather tax lost harvest by fart coin position at zero
than to watch it go back to you know a billion plus and not have it that's exactly how i feel
and like i'm not and i ranch with my whole bag so i did not trade it well um so her all about
maybe incredible trump sale sold the top and then he piled into Fartcoin also at the top,
which I thought was a funny one.
I think he's sticking with it.
But I feel like that's pretty wide sentiment for holders
is they'd rather just hold it and it goes down
than just miss the next parabolic round if it ever happens.
So I think that's a strong case.
As for the broader mean market, I think high level,
No one has that opportunity cost or FOMO
from holding a position right now.
What I will say is there are some signs of life.
So we are starting to see some daily runners.
Tokens are going to 10 million again in a day.
We're starting to see a little higher upside,
like this TIT coin hit 40 million.
It's RFC coins now over 50. So we're starting to- Dude, what upside like this tick coin at 40 million srfc coins now over 50 so what is going on with another tick coin man can i just vent for a second like
we already had we love tits go to 400 million three months ago and now instead of resending
we love tits it's like we gotta make a new tick coin and And as a, you know, multi percent holder of we love ass who has round tripped.
I saw, oh, well, now people made another ass coin.
It's like there's already an ass coin has a great community around it.
Why are we building another community of ass coin lovers?
Anyway, it's just goes to show you your thesis can be right and you can still lose money because they can just make a new coin and send it.
What's the old saying, D?
And I'll say one thing, Tyler, which is, you know, basically since a little bit before ETH Denver, pretty much since things blew up with Libra, I would say, there have been a lot of people that have been calling for just the death of meme coins, for the death of Pump.Fun, for the death of this general space.
And just want to put it out there that I think those people are incredibly out of touch with the reality of the products and things that people want to do in crypto and on chain.
And that there's a world where that ecosystem thrives and other ecosystems thrive.
It's not a one for one or something can and will exist, which means something can or will not exist.
I think they all can exist out there. But the reality is that meme coins will be around for
a long time. And when the markets turn, meme coins will once again become a highly speculative
playground for people to go play in. I think that's spot on. I think the calls of their death is are over overrated um they're going to continue to be
a part of the ecosystem and i think the most common response to that developer chart going
down is like oh they all gave up because all the easy money is in meme coins if the fact that there
is somewhere exists a casino is enough for you to give up developing in the space, I would question your conviction.
Yeah, and like developer activity goes down
when the markets go down.
It's just kind of how it works.
But the whole idea is like, are we net positive
in developer activity and developers
in the next bull run, right?
Are we constantly sort of moving up?
And I think we'll have to look back at this metric
in six months or 12 months, Tyler, and see how it looks then, see how it ages.
I want to reframe my point because there are some holes in it, I think.
But I think the key message, and I know a lot of people, or at least my friends and people I'm talking to are in the same camp. The meme coin game was exposed as an unfair game, right?
We all kind of knew we were, maybe you guys a little different than me, but you really needed to be in the cabal to have like a big advantage, right?
And that was exposed through Libra.
There's some people have like, I mean, I think the three of you played the game really well.
I was fortunate to chat with you guys. We had some good wins. But broadly, most people feel
like they're playing an unfair game. So because of that, now the people that are participating
is smaller. There's still interesting things. But I think a lot of people that still want some
exposure to high beta want it to be a meme. And they want something that they feel like they can
hold for a long time or hold
for like, you know, long time being like weeks or a month or whatever.
So to your point, Tyler, I think that's where Fartcoin really fits in.
Like you can say, okay, I know that, you know, obviously depending on how
markets trade, Fartcoin can go up or down, but at least it's not something where
I have to like kind of chase my tail and play that game that i learned was was dramatically unfair to me and for that reason i think we've seen the
holders go up and i think there are a lot of people who just are like okay i'll have fart
coin be the part of my portfolio that's high beta um at least that's how i'm thinking about it
yeah i think that's what you want if you want your meme coin to succeed over time and go up
you want people to be able to hold it and not track it every day.
Cause I got conversations with a friend who is in the real estate business
who bought the Trump coin and he got wrecked on it because he's like,
I don't, I don't follow this stuff day to day.
So like, I didn't know that I needed to sell it.
Like when Melania dropped and like when the Libra scandal got worse.
So I think that is a driver to to the some of the stronger existing ones so bar coin will certainly be a winner there i think it's
going to continue to outperform i think the market's kind of we're seeing that signal right now
uh d's before we wrap up thoughts on the hype. I want to keep coming back to this one because I'm still trying
to work through my thesis on it. Jeff was on the Steady Labs pod last week with Jordy and Taki
and it was a good lesson. I didn't sell any more hype. It was crazy to see it at like $9.50. Maybe
we're headed back there. But the other night sunday night i posted some of the prices
and it was like 98 solana 9.50 hype uh some some bad sites on the timeline but
i i'm more watching like volume and um some of the user metrics more than the price here
so still holding it still pretty pretty comfy holding it for a while honestly
um as long as it's getting an option and people are continuing to use it and it's seeing
good volume and metrics like i little less concerned about the price in the grand scheme
of things it had a huge volume day right, when it was going under 10.
I think just like the whole platform,
I thought it had like one of its all-time high days in trading volume.
I think maybe Sunday when crypto was crashing.
I mean, the metrics as far as...
I check them like once a week,
so I'm not super dialed in on it,
but still looked good as of three days ago
when I was listening to the podcast that he was on.
Yeah, I don't really have any...
I think if you buy it under $10
or you get sub-$8 in the future
and you hold it for a good amount of time,
I think it's a good play, all things considered.
That's the level i'm looking at i think eight would be pretty incredible i don't know if it gets there i think eight was my first buy or uh seven or eight like because i missed the first day
um because i was home for thanksgiving and then the next day i think it went up to around the i think i got in like seven
but yeah if you can buy between seven and eight again that's that's really
you believe in what they're doing and you like the platform it's goodbye yeah it's basically day
two day three prices it came out at three went to six then was it nine i feel like in a blink of an
eye um so you moved fast to get it i think i don't think my first buy was till maybe maybe 12 and maybe i should have just sold more at 27 or 28 that was my only problem
glad i sold sub um ended up having to take all that money out put into taxes anyway but uh
yeah i should have sold more but i'm not i not selling it here. It's closer to a bottom here than a, you know, I don't want to sell it.
I have a working theory that if we see alts start to move in a crypto reversal, Bitcoin starts grinding back up into the mid 80s, maybe 90, that hype would be one of the fastest horses.
Yeah, given there's no major like fud right like there's no exports on liquid pairs there's no uh you know north korean hacker bullshit
right or whatever other stuff i can't think of now um but yeah if all the centralized exchange
yeah jeebs and i are on the other side of this now i
think and i was a big hype boy i i what happened with jelly jelly really changed my perspective on
hype i don't know do you guys feel that still common sentiment or do people are just like oh
it's still a great casino and when i sold i sold my whole position that day so my views haven't changed you guys you guys know how i feel about it but i feel like my read
is a lot of people are already forgetting it i've forgotten about it
yeah people people don't care at the end of the day
right starts going back up if it gets back to to the exploit level back to 13 14. It was almost there this morning.
I guess maybe elaborate on your,
geez has been pointing this out.
I don't want to be playing in a casino where the casino can change the
rules of the game in their own self-interest.
that that's a, and I get it.
I understand the methodology and the thought process around it.
And in some ways you'd say, Oh, they're protecting their community,
which they clearly were, but yeah,
I think the most important thing,
what makes crypto beautiful in general,
and the reason the casino is so successful is people know that, you know,
rules they can make money and the rules can change that is a very very big concern to me yeah yeah i
think i think tyler the way i view it is that people knew that they weren't truly decentralized
but then would point toward them having increased the amount of nodes to being a factor of them being a decentralized protocol.
And this basically showed that they're not.
This basically showed that, to Peter's point, they could change the rules when and how they want.
And obviously, they're not going to do that at any point in time unless it's really a disastrous situation.
This really forced their hand, right? I'm sure in their head, this is not something that they would have wanted to do,
but they did. And I think it just exposes the credibility and nature of it being a truly
decentralized protocol. And so I think people need to price that in and determine how much
they care about that at the end of the day. And that's what seems to be going on.
I think they could do a better job responding to that event
and like they put out their initial response
that's one of the first things Jeff said on the pod
super aware that their comms were
one of the first things they addressed but i i didn't
listen to that what i said i didn't listen to that did they address the criticism too
yeah a bit um i i'm one of the people who just doesn't really care about decentralization i
think it's all kind of a a lie anyway um i don't really think code is law is a good way to run things and i think we've seen
with uh you know people like avi eisenberg and other you know not ideal folks that when you're
exploiting things um for profitable trading strategies it's kind of just bullshit but um
i recognize that maybe that's not the the view of most people but like i'm not
buying hype because of decentralization you know like that's not really what's interesting like to
me what's interesting is it's a product that people like with high volume and actual fees
and a good token buyback system which reminds me of token. Not really giving a shit about the decentralization.
I think that's a big part of the risk that you bring into it as well,
is that effectively it's become a non-KYC centralized exchange,
which I think has just different levels of concerns associated to it.
that's what i should say yeah on the regulatory side potentially
there's clearly bull case and bear case i think that the bull case is is the binance competitor
good product that people love and you've laid out some of the risk of the bear case so that's what makes this a tricky trade um maybe just buy fart coin right like you don't need you don't have any of
that risk of fart coin that's the easy alternative bitcoin and for american made farts hot air rises
less risky than our punks which are bleeding in u.s dollar terms
as if they're holding up really well though though, in ETH terms. Our centralized punks.
Holding up in ETH is fantastic.
The house price is holding up
in ETH, too. That's good.
We'll have a longer punk conversation on another show.
But, man, that floor just keeps dipping in the U.S. terms.
At least the clean ones keep getting scooped.
The punk market's strong.
The punk market looks really good right now in sales and ETH terms.
I was going to say, that's debatable.
Depending on how you measure.
Folks, we're a full 10 minutes over. this was a great conversation i want to thank everyone
for tuning in that's going to be it that will be our show we'll be back next tuesday i want to
thank our listeners want to thank our partner thank my co-hosts as always until next tuesday
have a great week see you soon bye We'll be right back. We'll see you next time.