Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning, this afternoon, wherever you are at.
We're going to start the show here in just a minute.
We're getting all of our speakers up on stage. While we do that,
some shout outs. Bongo, Ari, T-Pan, G-N. Thanks for joining us.
Harry Krishna, the homie always here. T, Bill, G-N,
G-N, Zanzibar, Eli, Kelly,
Marijuana Jesus, Chan, John, Flynn,
Thank you for joining us.
All right, we've got D's up.
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If you're not following that account, go follow that account.
You can get all this content directly on your feed.
Sims, I think we're looking pretty good.
Let's kick it. Thank you. All right, GM, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Underexposed.
This is episode 21 of our new weekly macro show hitting all of the biggest topics and
trends impacting crypto and Web3.
I guess it's really not that new anymore.
We are five months in to this thing, and we've had a lot of fun along the way.
Today, folks, is Tuesday, April 15th, Tax Day here in the U.S.,
and it has been another week of the Trump tariff roller coaster.
We've had some new exceptions, some fakeouts, ongoing volatility.
But quietly, we are up about 10% on the week,
showing some quiet strength on the board. The question, is this the beginning of a real rally,
or are we just going to continue this never-ending chop zone? We're going to break it all down.
On today's show, I am your host, Tyler D. I've got my co-host in the house, starting with D's,
our collector, CoinStacker, and trader growing a fresh beard.
GM, yeah, we're on week four of this beard.
I don't know how long it'll last, but we're just fucking around and finding out.
Well, we like your FAFO beard here this Tuesday.
Folks, Peter James is on with us.
He is the founder of several companies, still finds time to spend with us. Peter, GM, how are you and how was your Masters?
GM, yeah. Won a little bit of money on the Masters. Super stoked for Rory. That was
probably the most entertaining Masters that I can remember. 2019 with Tiger winning was also
super compelling with the Tiger story. but just the swings that we had were
incredible yeah doing well a beautiful day here in denver and the piercing volatility continues
although the start of this week has been pretty mild thus far so eager to get into it with you
guys yeah we might actually be getting a bit of some relief from that piercing volatility but of
course as soon as I say that,
I'm sure something is going to change.
Folks, we've also got Jeebs on with us.
He is in the early stage of Crypto VC,
dabbles in internet capital markets,
Jeebs, Jim, how are you doing?
It's been unlimited headlines over the past,
but it feels like forever.
And it's just ups and downs, ups and downs.
Going to get a few days off here.
My mom's coming into town.
So just excited to be here with you guys.
Yeah, enjoy the long weekend.
My son's school, I feel like this Easter break used to be like,
maybe you got a half a day Friday.
Now they're off Thursday, Friday, and Monday for Easter. So we're going to take some time off with the kids as well.
Have a nice little long weekend.
Folks, we've got a lot to talk about on today's show.
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folks. I'm going to fire up the screen share for those who are in the stream, and we will get that
stream link posted out to X here shortly as well. The crypto board, looking pretty decent. Bitcoin up 8% on the week. XRP is up 12%. Solana is up 22%.
ETH up 6% clearly is the lagger.
I think in macro, the tariff rollercoaster, the trade war rollercoaster continues.
We were somewhat euphoric.
I think this was Saturday morning.
The news broke that Trump was going to exempt smartphones, computers, and chips from the new tariffs.
He then went to effectively walk that back on Sunday and say that no one is getting off the hook.
We've had the EU, European Union, come out and say negotiations are stalling.
There's been maybe a softening and rhetoric with China, but China has also been somewhat threatening and saying that the United
States is extremely shameless.
Tariff war will backfire soon.
They're also just asking for some basic respect from the U S as a part of
but there are some signs of hope.
The tariff bulls are saying perhaps, you know perhaps this is an early outcome of the trade war.
NVIDIA commits to $500 billion in onshore chip manufacturing,
and they're going to build their supercomputers,
advance towards AGI here onshore in the U.S.
OpenAI also continues to release high-performing new models.
They released a model yesterday, I believe, and then breaking before the show,
it looks like they're going to get into social as well, building an ex-competitor.
So those two big players continue to move along.
In the crypto headlines specifically, we mentioned that Bitcoin has been grinding up.
There's some news out of Bo Hines.
He did this interview with Anthony Poppliano last week.
He personally is very hungry for Bitcoin.
He wants the U.S. to acquire as much as possible.
And he mentioned a few ways.
One, using tariff income, also revaluating gold, perhaps swapping some gold for Bitcoin.
So I thought that was interesting. Another macro headline, SolEth hit a new all-time high here over the weekend.
So it's not just Bitcoin ETH that's grinding up.
SolEth is grinding up here as well.
And then some big news out of Kraken.
So they launched U.S US stock in ETF trading.
11,000 plus stocks. It looks
like they're getting into being somewhat of a
everything app, Robinhood competitor
those are some of the headlines. There's a lot of directions
we can take the conversation here this
morning. Peter, I'll toss it to you as
I always do, just kind of kick things off.
piercing volatility here in the intro.
What jumps out to you from this past week with respect to macro outlook?
Yeah, I think the biggest thing that you can take for this week is that Trump is making some concessions on certain things,
specifically with chips and then the automakers and, you know,
some things around technology certainly helped out Apple.
And I think that's really important just because part of the fear and uncertainty that we saw
and just markets selling off, you know, all these tariffs were in place.
Like these companies can't just, you know, retreat their supply chain like with a snap of a finger.
They've invested, you know, tons of resources into setting everything up.
So it takes time to make this stuff happen.
And even the NVIDIA headline, that's fantastic to see, you know,
and Trump is obviously victory lapping it, but it's going to take time.
So the fact that there's some concessions happening,
I think is broadly a good thing.
Trump's trying to be as disruptive as he can.
I think they have a clear agenda.
But coming out firing and just doing all this craziness certainly spooked markets.
And I think they're trying to walk it back.
The other thing that I'm encouraged by this week is the 10-year falling.
While markets are kind of grinding up a bit, 10 years down to 433.
And I think that's kind of one of the main North Star for Besant.
So, you know, this week is encouraging.
The VIX is down to like 28 or something like that last I saw.
So the piercing volatility has kind of come down just a bit, which is nice.
So we'll see what transpires going forward.
In terms of crypto, Bitcoin dominance just kind of continues to grind up a little bit.
I think that's a theme we've talked a lot about.
The barbell strategy of Bitcoin and Fartcoin is done broadly pretty well.
So we're excited about that here at Underexposed.
And yeah, I think in general, we'll see what transpires kind of this summer.
Historically, you know, the, you know,
selling man go away is a trend that we see in general.
And a lot of the big market participants, I mean,
they go to the Hamptons or wherever else and kind of just take the summers off
or, you know, are way less active in the summers.
So I don't expect that to happen this year just with everything going on. But I'm curious to see how things kind of play out. And if we can get, you know,
less volatility in the short term, that would be certainly a relief just in terms of, you know,
family life balance. So nothing crazy this week, which is a lot different than what we've had in
previous shows. But I would say the most important thing to pay attention to is just kind of the concessions
He is trying to say that we're not cutting anyone deals or whatever else, but in reality
And I think they don't want the tariffs to completely disrupt this global supply chain
while still incentivizing people to come here to America for manufacturing.
the biggest takeaways from the week we see the s&p is up about nine percent from last week's show so
we must have recorded effectively at the local lows last tuesday peter i think one follow-up
question for you i think this time last week we were talking about you know this new
best sense coming out and saying main street Wall Street, and that's our focus.
And then markets are down,
and it feels like the Trump administration starts to kind of walk back
in an effort to pump markets.
And then they also victory-lapped stock market rally over the past week.
So curious if you've given any thought to that and was it all a fake out?
I think Trump wants to victory lap everything he can,
whether it's him shooting 68 and winning the club championship or,
you know, the tenure going down when it goes down, but when it rips up,
he doesn't talk about it, the stock market.
the audacity to say we just had a great week at the stock market
is so preposterous after the, you know, downside volatility that we saw.
The person that I just continue to listen to is Besson.
He seems like the main adult in the room.
And he, I just think it's very very sharp and you know in general uh i have optimism around
them pulling off the plan to some degree just because uh you know his influence and kind of
what he's trying to do and the big thing that i think is encouraging from this week like i
mentioned before is s&p 500 up on the 10-year uh going down which the 10-year is just it seems like
there's a conspiracy theory around it i was
somewhat buying into it maybe last show that china was dumping a lot of the treasuries
that doesn't make sense in some regards because they need dollars for a lot of their agenda
um so trying to figure out why we saw just like a huge spike we got all the way down to
you know well below four percent like three eight three, and then it went all the way back up to 4.5 on the 10-year, and now we're back at 4.33.
So that, to me, is probably the most encouraging thing.
And, yeah, the victory lap stuff from Trump, I mean, we've seen this forever.
I mean, he just touts what's good for him, and, you know, he has no shame in touting something that doesn't make any sense.
Like the stock market in particular is like, oh, we went down 20% and then we went up 10%.
Let's tout the up move instead of the down move.
Sure. Yeah, that's right in line for him.
Jeeves, I'll toss it to you for your high-level thoughts.
Also, maybe a second part of the question is, were you surprised with how they've been starting to walk things
back? Is it all just art of the deal? Or is it a sign of weakness? I can't really make heads or
tails of that part of it, Tyler. The way I'm perceiving it right now, it's kind of like when
your wife, your husband, your partner gets mad at you and you're like, baby, I'll change. I'll
change. And then for a day or two, you're a different person, but then you just kind of
go right back to what you were doing before. That's a little bit of how I've been perceiving
it. I think it's really hard to tell, right? Besser was on Bloomberg last night. I recommend
watching it. He's also doing one to two interviews now a week with major news organizations,
which I think is great. He's speaking to the American public. And like Peter mentioned,
he's one of the closest people to follow. He's articulate. He's so sharp, the way he can just
remember a ton of data and a ton of information. One of the things he continues to say, and I think Trump continues to say as well as just how strong his relationship with she is. And, you know, he's knowing that they want to continue that relationship, right? They, they worked on it, obviously, during the last administration, Trump know, she's going around Southeast Asia and other trade partners that the U.S. put large tariffs on to discuss future relations.
So he's actively going and, you know, he sees the opportunity to start to reshape the trade relations within the Asia Pacific area.
And I think that's really key because the U.S. is effectively putting some of the highest tariffs on those countries.
It's really key because the U.S. is effectively putting some of the highest tariffs on those countries.
So I think that's something you really want to watch closely is whether or not China is starting to strike more deals with countries before the U.S. has the opportunity to and what that looks like.
Besant was asked last night whether or not in trade negotiations, if the U.S. is trying to basically reorder trade with China in their
So saying, hey, let's strike a deal.
But with this, you also have to either cut off China or buy more stuff from us.
And he kind of skirted that question, which leads me to believe, yes, that's going to
And it's hard to blame him if you're trying to reshape the trade world order.
And it's hard to blame them if you're trying to reshape the trade world order.
So there's just a lot going on, I think, in short,
and a lot of it's muddy at this point.
I listened to the first half of Sacks on the Holland podcast on Friday,
and they had a tariff debate.
And effectively, he was crediting the art of the deal
and looking at the outcomes that, hey, there's 100 countries in the negotiation table right now, that the trade deal with China has been bad.
It's been Trump's priority for years now, and they're finally starting to make some headway.
I mean, I don't think it's a huge surprise to see SACS perhaps towing the party line.
At the same time, it has come across a bit reckless.
And I think the question is, is this the severed global ties?
Is that irreversible or was it worth it for this?
I think it's still a question.
And that's going to, it's a question that's going to take months and years to answer.
Certainly we've seen some short-term impacts in sectors like tourism.
So hopefully those are, those are transitory, but it's going to be hard to measure the effectiveness,
I think for a while anyways, which makes this still a difficult conversation to really have
and put an exclamation point on one way or another on a, on a weekly basis. But the headlines like NVIDIA,
I think right before the show,
Honda committed to more onshore manufacturing.
So I think we'll continue to see Trump victory lap
And perhaps that will show some progress on his goals.
I want to bring it back to crypto here,
on some of the other broader macro headlines.
Jeeves, we were kind of chatting offline.
I think one of the big stories, and Deez, I know you ran on this one as well,
is not only is Bitcoin ETH and Bitcoin dominance going up,
it's other majors against ETH now.
So solo ETH hitting that fresh new all-time high.
Curious, Jeeves, what reactions here?
What's going to save ETH?
What's going to save ETH?
I think we should go around the horn.
I'd love to know what everyone thinks here.
I'm working on this piece around how
I think everyone thinks that institutions
and RWAs are going to save ETH.
I think that's been a talking point now
And the reality is that RWAs and institutions are likely not going to save ETH.
You know, we've walked through, I think, one instance where money managers start to recommend
sort of an ETH-Bitcoin split to go into retirement accounts.
I no longer think that's going to be the case, specifically because Bitcoin held up really well
and ETH did not during this period of time.
And so I think if they're going to recommend anything,
it's just going to be the pure good stuff
and just have Bitcoin allocated there.
Tyler, I cannot come up with a great reason
for ETH at this point or to hold
ETH at this point. And I think Chao from AllianceDAO puts it best. There is not a wartime leader
right now for Ethereum. And it's clear that the perceived leaders, you have like Jesse,
you have Vitalik, maybe there's someone else in that mix. They don't see eye to eye on what the future looks like
and what consumers really want.
And so I'd love to know what you guys think on this one.
Yeah, Dees, maybe I'll toss it to you.
Thoughts on what could save ETH.
I mean, I've been pretty much out of ETH
since the Blast farming days.
I had sold most of my ETH for Solana
the risk-reward of holding ETH was so bad.
I'm so biased toward NFTs.
it's like, why would I own this
over another X-Copy edition,
another highly sought-after PowerLaw collectible that I think will outpays you. I don't have very many bullish things to say about it, but I also wouldn't be surprised if there is some short period of outperformance.
It is hard to look at this ETH-c chart um and think about the last three years
of price action um but i am not actively betting on eath either so i think um the l2s kind of
cannibalize eTH in a way.
And I don't think that was the intention, I guess, behind them.
But we have gas fees under one guay.
The token is not deflationary like we thought it would be. There was this idea after the merge that the amount of ETH spent on gas
fees would outpace the um you know inflation from staking and that chart is tough
to look at um it's like ultrasound i'll pull it up but it's um it's not great so i don't know i
it's hard for me to want to really bet big on you but i also i'm not like shorting it i guess like
i'm not i'm not gonna be surprised it has a period of outperformance.
It's just like, if you're owning it,
you're going to be happy if it goes up to 3x.
That's not that enticing to me for the price action it's had.
If I think Bitcoin goes up to $150k+,
I think I'm getting similar upside with like much less downside where
you could go under a thousand dollars. I wouldn't be surprised.
It would hurt to look at, but like, I wouldn't be shocked.
Yeah. I think that's fair.
I feel like I've recalibrated or everyone seemingly has recalibrated their
it's definitely going to go to 10k.
Like it went to 4k last cycle.
Like surely it'll go to 10k.
L2s definitely cannibalized ETH and took away the ultrasound money narrative.
it really wasn't L2s actually,
it was the introduction of blob storage,
which effectively subsidized
what would have been additional data storage
And then that reduced the costs
for layer twos to then post data.
So just effectively a huge subsidy program.
It's also interesting is looking at this NFT weekly volume,
perhaps with the lens of also that ETH chart.
So I guess I didn't really realize that in mid-December,
we saw a spike over $300 million in weekly NFT trading volume.
Shout out Pengu and Izuki.
That's what was happening.
It was Penguins and Izuki, people speculating for the token.
But then let's look at the ETH chart.
And from November to December, I mean, granted, of course,
the Trump rally is happening at this time as well.
So it's not a controlled experiment by any means. There's a lot of variables.
ETH runs the 3950. So I guess where I'm going with this is,
are NFTs the answer? Do we need another NFT season? Is that the out?
I don't know. For me, NFT season, we had had high gas fees we had a ton of eath being burned
we literally had people who had a thousand dollars in their bank account trying to mint their art and
it was like five hundred dollars to mint and they're like yeah this is good like this is how
it is and we burnt a ton of eath like i of the other side mint. I guess that happened at the end.
That was the beginning of the end.
But I don't think we have that level of demand again.
Maybe I'm just completely jaded.
But I'm more just looking at the top, quote unquote, investable projects
and not thinking about, oh, what are the next
massive mints that are going to come out
on board a ton of people?
Because I don't know if that will happen.
Budget Peelons went to $100,000.
Yeah, they were like $35,000,
but OpenSea has just been getting better and better.
I've been using it over Blur
and they're just adding things that make it better.
So I do think it's actually in the best state
it's ever been in in terms of a platform.
And the data backs that up.
80% of the weekly NFT trade is back on OpenSea.
Yeah, I mean, everyone knows I'm Blur Investor and whatnot,
but I really feel like they abandoned the platform
I don't think anything's changed over a year on it.
Really outside of when they added Blend, I don't think much's changed in over a year on it um really outside
of like when they added blend i don't think much has changed i think blend's a really cool product
but i don't think they're uh innovating or or really building much over there anymore
do you think a lot of that's farming d's too what blend or just blur in general uh openc
the openc volume oh i don't even i'm not even talking as much about
the volume it's just like the platforms um like i'm using it more to place a bunch of bids and
to see collections and i think it's um just like a slightly better experience than what i can get
on blur right now so i've been using it more i haven't actually been paying too much attention
to the volume but i always see courtyard at the top
and assume a lot of that is some type of farming
because the unit cost on a lot of these cards is just so cheap.
It's like .005 or .004 ETH and stuff.
But I do assume there is a good amount of farming.
I don't know how much that is impacting prices, though.
volumes are still... I'm just going to use
is at $2.8 million a day. I talked about
this a bit on FOMO Hour this morning.
Basically nothing. That's less than the Alien Punk
that sold. One thing that's funny, we had the
Alien Punk sell, and normally when you have a punk
sell like that, there's a floor suite people are excited and um that alien punk sold and there wasn't
another punk sold for that felt like 24 hours like and the one that sold after was like someone
listed an ice gold chain under the floor so it was kind of funny to see like the the dynamic
shift so much uh if someone bought an
alien back in the day like people go crazy and shit gets sold and like this time someone bought
an alien and they're like oh this idiot lost 10 million dollars and 500 ease like we're not buying
any of this shit but i will say i still get dms from people pretty frequently like hey i'm looking
to buy a punk don't really like anything on the floor right now what do you recommend um and that just feels good to see i mean this one that sold today
yeah that's a strange one 75 over the floor um i want to drill into open c and then peter i want
to get your thoughts on ethereum as well i talked about this a little bit on FOMO Hour this morning
because I was caught off guard a bit.
The big announcement from OpenSea this week,
they're leaning into Solana tokens
as they go deeper into token trading
as a core part of their platform.
If you go look at the volumes,
Solana memes are doing $2 billion a day
in daily trading volume still.
I just shared the NFTs are doing
difference. What I noticed
when I pulled up their token trading
page is they've got the functionality
I hadn't seen them really be touting that much,
which is a really big deal.
So if folks are used to trading
tokens across different blockchains,
it is a very painful experience.
Typically, if you want to go salon to ETH,
you have to use a bridge,
perhaps multiple bridges.
Even on Uniswap, if you're in the EBM chains,
you still have to do a bridge on Uniswap before you do the swap transaction.
It looks like they're trying to abstract that away behind the scenes.
If they pull that off, it's a pretty big deal.
So if you are bullish on the OpenSea token,
I think you want to see them refine this part of their app and see
some growth before they do any kind of a TG event.
Just some rambling thoughts here this
morning, but these are, anyway, I'm curious if you guys
were even aware that they were getting into this and perhaps any
other reaction. Is this a bridge Tyler?
So I don't have my wallet connected,
but it looks like it would just be a swap.
I'm going to be able to get,
unfortunately I'm not connected.
So we're not going to be able to demo this live,
but I think the idea is you can,
you can select tokens on different blockchains and then do swaps.
The bridge business is pretty lucrative.
I can't tell if this is bridge or if this is like a simple swap type product or exactly what this is.
but I might go test this out later.
But I might go test this out later.
I know you mentioned it earlier in the day.
It's a great business for them to go into,
especially if they think that NFTs are going to go cross-chain
or just also to diversify their business operations
I wonder what the fees are like.
So there's parts of the calculus,
but it's an interesting data point
and clearly a growth focus for them.
Peter, maybe pulling us back.
We went a little bit down.
A rabbit hole, but still answering the question
NFTs are in that conversation.
Curious if you have thoughts.
I mean, I've had one thought the whole time
and it hasn't come to fruition,
but Nick Tamayo has been one of the best and not the best investors in crypto.
He's still an Ethereum bull, so he's been prescient.
I don't know what else I really have.
Anything else other than that?
I do think it could be a pillar as DeFi evolves.
And, you know, we've talked about RWAs and all sorts of other things.
That's really the main bull case.
High-end NFTs, I think, could help.
But it's not been pretty.
And it feels really tough to hold ETH relative to especially Bitcoin in my eyes.
I know the sole ETH chart doesn't look good either.
We'll see how those play out but specific to bitcoin it's just so hard to see it um from a risk reward standpoint
this right now but i guess the other main consideration is that it's a contrarian trade
and in general with investing um you know going away from the crowd is going to present more asymmetry.
So in that regard, I think there's significantly more upside, but it's just been ugly and it's
hard to paint the picture. So I don't really have anything new to say. It's just, you know,
something that I continue to hold a little bit of and just playing some, you know, stable coin
games out there using ETH as some collateral.
And unfortunately, the collateral just continues to go down.
I think if I had to answer the question,
I've started to see some narratives around just a culture shift.
I think folks have pointed to somewhat of a soft,
perhaps not as competitive as it needs to be culture.
I think another one is just leadership not getting behind apps and products as much perhaps as other blockchains do.
And is that going to start to shift?
I think that's something that takes time.
And then just strong apps, things
And perhaps some of those things to do,
some of those apps have gone to the L2s.
ETH bull, you want some of those apps
and things to do to get pulled back to ETH.
So those are some potential bull cases,
but they're a little bit intangible right now.
So I think that that's what your,
your hopium could at least be.
I want to just briefly touch on Bitcoin strategic reserve before we,
we go further down the risk curve of that.
And I do want to talk through our,
our trading round table because we've got some,
but I don't know if this was necessarily huge news.
We've seen Bo Hines kind of say this before,
it was going around the horn again this week
in that his view is the U.S. should accumulate
as much Bitcoin as possible for the Strategic Reserve.
They're still looking at ways they can do it.
These are budget-neutral ways.
They don't want to use U.S. taxpayer dollars to set the stage.
They want to use other ways such as tariff revenue
or effectively repricing their gold stores and perhaps doing a swap there.
I guess my question, and Peter, you can go first,
and then we can maybe all go to Jeebs.
Is this a matter of when versus if for the U.S. to start buying?
Has your outlook changed at all based on any of this rhetoric or just the
fact that this 180 day clock is now ticking that executive order for the
strategic reserve was signed first week of Trump's presidency.
So we're going on, we're close to 90 days.
Yeah. I really loved what we did with the strategic reserve saying that we're going you know not sell what we've already what we already have um if there's a
neutral way to accumulate bitcoin i guess i'm okay with that it's not my preference i really
would be upset if we're trying to buy it i mean one of the biggest issues that the u.s faces uh
is you know our national debt And are we really going to go
out on the risk curve and speculate on something to reduce our national debt? There's so many other
things that we could speculate on that we have more advantages in. So I'm not a huge fan of
going out and just straight buying Bitcoin for the government. I don't think that's a good thing.
I think the other aspect of that that people underestimate is if we buy it now, it just makes it so much more of a partisan issue.
And then if things flip, one of the first things that the Democrats are going to do
is probably sell the Bitcoin. That to me is just not how things should go. I do think it should be
bipartisan things like, hey, we're not going to sell the crypto that we accumulated.
It's something that we can have in reserve.
I think that makes a lot of sense.
I don't have a strong opinion here.
I hope that we don't end up speculating on different assets
given how much debt we have as a country.
Jeebs, do you have any thoughts on this one?
I think it's one of those ones too,
where like it's Bo's job to posture a bit.
And I think, I think partially he's just yapping.
Like there's so many ideas out there.
And I think his job is to propose ideas.
Like I watched that interview with him.
I didn't realize he's, he's only 29. So he's young. He gets it. think his job is to propose ideas. I think Beau is great. I watched that interview with him. I
didn't realize he's only 29. So he's young. He gets it. He's really smart. He's really articulate.
And I think his role is to try and find any avenue in which we can, what does it go,
effectively net to purchase new Bitcoin. And so he's going to propose every single idea out there.
and so he's going to propose every single idea out there i think the end at the end of the day
it has to be something where people don't lose their minds over it and i'm not sure how many
options there are where people don't lose their minds uh over us buying bitcoin as opposed to
you know doing something else so a lot of these different options they're proposing i mean
really any of them could work.
But I don't have a hard thought on which ones will work at this point.
Setting up a thoughtful Bitcoin mining program, I feel like is an avenue that would probably have the least pushback. I think that the primary pushback would just be from like an environment standpoint.
I think that's been somewhat,
I think that argument has had some holes poked in it to a degree.
So it has less flat angles than I think some of these others do.
But I feel like that's also one that they have given the least amount of talk to.
So it's hard to really know there's much of a plan for that.
So we'll certainly see, but it looks like it is certainly top of mind
for Bo and the crew here.
We've got about 15 minutes left in the show.
I want to get into some more of our further out the risk curve trading
So folks may or may not be aware,
but this Friday is the three month anniversary of that Trump token,
that changed the entire trajectory of this crypto cycle or the good for some
folks, probably for the, the worst the worst for a majority of folks, the reason why
this three-month anniversary matters is those token unlocks start. And there's over $300 million
in tokens set to unlock this Friday. We talked about this Trump trade quite a bit the first few
weeks. The token was live, so I think it does make sense for us to revisit this here.
Deez, maybe I'll toss this to you.
Are they going to figure out a way to pump this into the unlocks?
Is it going to be a bullish unlock, or is this a permanent short?
Dude, I'm the wrong person to ask.
and ask. I'm the person who at $1
I'm the person who at $1 said I didn't want it to be real,
said I didn't want it to be real and I wasn't
they pump it going into the Unlock
talking about it and pumping it himself.
And if he does, it's just a horrible
look for the President of the United States.
I'm not buying it into the Unlock.
extremely biased. I'm just extremely biased,
like hate this fucking token
Trump family involvement in crypto.
So it's hard for me to get behind it.
Peter, I'll toss it to you.
Every week. I said it so many times, sell the inauguration, my friends and family.
And then this token just got me in such a blunder.
Didn't sleep at all the first night.
Was my best short-term trade ever.
Unfortunately, I just piled all of the Trump proceeds into a basket of solana jlp
and fart coin and uh rode most of it on the way down but uh yeah i i don't have a strong view on
this token at all i feel like the meme coin streets basically i wouldn't say dead but just
the rigged the rig tokens um don't feel good to own.
We have a bias towards Parkwind here.
I just, I don't know what the catalyst is other than some shameless shilling from Trump,
which is not a good look for the president of the United States, but certainly one put
So we'll see, we'll see what happens.
this is still a moment in time. I'll never forget that whole weekend.
And then into kind of the inauguration.
I wish I could go back in time, but it is what it is.
Do you ever short tokens, Peter?
Yeah, I've shorted tokens tokens it hasn't gone well um i i generally um i'm kind of
a buy and hold type person and i think uh from a strategy perspective um the only thing that i that
i that has worked for me that i think is a good long-term strategy from an asset allocation
standpoint especially if you're going to be really risk on and have a big part of your portfolio in crypto is a rebalancing strategy. So basically you say, okay, I want, you know, I have a hundred dollars,
I'm going to have $40 in the S&P 500. I'm going to have $30 in Bitcoin. I'm going to have $30
and, you know, call it alts or whatever. You know, as it, as it changes that, that's your
percentage, you know, Bitcoin all gets go up and now it gets to go up. And now it's like, say, $60 Bitcoin.
Or let's say $50 Bitcoin, $35 alts, and now $15 S&P 500.
You'd basically, whatever your time horizon, if it's quarterly or annually,
you would then take that same portfolio and go back to your 40-40-30.
And that effectively forces you to sell high and buy low on kind of your, your, your strategy.
So that's the only thing that I think is somewhat applicable.
When I get into trading and shorting and doing all these things, I don't think I have an edge.
And that is proven in the stats, especially shorting.
I've just not been someone who's good at shorting in general.
My big wins have coming from identifying things early and then buying and holding.
Yeah, I like that portfolio ongoing kind of rebalancing.
It's something I need to start implementing.
It would have likely bailed me out a bit during this last downturn as I was a little too heavy out on the risk curve.
I'm with you on the shorting thing.
It's like the Melania token, just looking at the chart, like, my God, this was a pretty beautiful short.
Shorts were never really sweating.
This thing has literally just been straight down only.
And still at $430 million, which is above its natural resting price of zero.
But like the Trump is a little bit messier, right? Like the downtrend is the trend is clearly down,
but like here in mid February, it jumped 30%, 40% in a day, potentially wiped out some shorts it did the same thing in early march uh so
it is tricky but jeebs curious similar thoughts on your end any uh any bullish unlock
outs that you see man yeah there's a lot here right like peter said i i used to
trade perps a whole lot more and you just you know way more rich bulls than rich bears in the world.
And so for this token specifically, there's way too many bag holders at this point.
This token has not had a lot of ebbs and flows.
So in my eyes, there's no chance there's a bullish unlock here.
And maybe there's a small chance, right? I shouldn't say there's no chance. There's maybe
a small chance. But it's not going to come from Trump pumping it. It's going to come from the
exit, because there's 80% that the team owns, I think. I think they pushed out 20% initially.
I think they pushed out 20% initially.
And so unless they plan to burn that entire 80%
or plan to lock it up within WLF or do something with it,
maybe there's some type of initial bullish unlock,
but still think that this token generally is cursed in some ways.
I don't know who the next buyer of Trump token is.
And a lot of these tokens I think are just,
The burning is the out of there.
It's like if they said burning,
Like if they choose to burn that 80% or this unlock or whatever,
the 20% that's in circulation is all that exists. There is no team that's going to this unlock or whatever. And it's like, Hey, the 20% that's in circulation
is all that exists. There is no team that's going to get paid from this. The Trump family doesn't
get paid from this. This is truly a meme that's out in the world and of existence. Maybe it goes
up, but Tyler, this is already a one and a half billion dollar token. Market cap. Yeah.
Market cap. Yeah. 8 billion MTV. Yeah. I mean, it's a huge token and look how hard it's been sold off.
So it has room to go down for sure.
And I do my gut read is I think the team wants to get paid on this.
So I, I'm not putting a whole lot of percentage chance that they do the burn
I will say if they do some kind of a burn for like
the first unlock, perhaps the next
big surprise move, then I think people would buy
these unlocks really since the first
week. It would change the
dynamic a lot if they chose to do that.
That's the one out probably
at this point. But even with that though,
then you start to say like, well, what's the realistic
upside? I still don't think it's...
That's not going to send this thing back
Like, does it 10x from here? Probably not.
You know what token? A lot of people
believe could still 10x from here.
It's like one of your favorite patterns, Tyler.
It had one of, it just painted
one of the most beautiful cup and handle
breakouts that we've ever
the meme streets here. So what was
last Tuesday? Last Tuesday was the 8th.
Oh, so we were just painting the end of the handle
on last week's show before the huge leg up.
So we went 50 cents to 75 cents in a day
Now we're just kind of chopping in this new
800 to $950 million range.
Peter has already shared his thoughts.
We love the Bitcoin part barbell on this show.
We've been in group chats, and you keep asking the question,
why am I holding any soul over Fartcoin?
And it's a very valid question.
I did get a tax bill that was higher than expected and uh the
first token i sold to pay the bill was solana did not touch the fart coins it wasn't even a thought
to sell fart coin or hype so something there this was very happy to sell solda
you were pretty prescient i think you we kind of, we were kind of dancing around meme coins.
We weren't really talking about them a whole lot during the nasty bleed out.
you kind of spoke up at the end of one of our shows and said,
the part part coin just bought them.
It's around the time I bought some,
I just needed to buy a lot more,
but just glad I got some and it's up.
It's up like forex what's your
realistic read from here i don't know um i think if we do get another meme coin phase like fart
coin to me is the clear leader on solana um i don't know if anx upside is reasonable. It's like putting it close to $10 billion.
I wouldn't be surprised if it makes a new all-time high, though.
I think it all just kind of depends on the macro environment.
But if Bitcoin ranges or goes up and Solana ranges or goes up with it,
I do think Fartcoin will just outperform both of them.
So it ends with any thing.
It's like a higher beta play. will just outperform both of them. So it ends with any thing.
It's like a higher beta play.
I do think there is a bit more downside now than there was at 20, 30 cents,
but I'm still holding it.
I'm going to see what happens.
I think if you are midterm bullish on Bitcoin
and therefore midterm bullish on Solana, then it's hard to be
midterm bearish on Fartcoin. But I'm extremely
biased. It's a token we've talked about. It feels like on every episode of the show
for five months. Outside of Bitcoin and
ETH and Sol, it's definitely the token we've talked about the most.
Something to consider for people who
might just be listening now for the first time.
Sure. And definitely riskier
after jumping 3x in a month,
You want to buy these things
when we don't want to talk about
on the show, right? That's the hard part about
want to talk about things that are gaining attention,
gaining momentum, yada yada. But as Peter said earlier with betting on ETH, it's like you kind you want to talk about things that are gaining attention gaining momentum yada yada but as peter said earlier with betting on eath it's like you kind of want to make these
bets when it's contrarian and not obvious to people like it was not obvious we didn't want
to talk about it at 25 cents we were kind of ashamed like oh how could this go from two dollars
to 50 cents to 25 cents but in those moments of time that's when you need to make bets and
continue to be curious and you know kind of think for yourself so something just to think about in
general is when we don't want to talk about on the show it's probably close to a bottom if it's
going to have another run um and now that we want to talk about it you know every week again it's
probably a sign that the upside isn't as high as it was when we didn't want to talk about it every week again, it's probably a sign that the upside isn't as high as it was
when we didn't want to talk about it.
But I'm still holding it, so we'll see.
Yeah, maybe some cool off.
I think what jumps out to me,
I think a lot of folks are painting the picture of,
so what happens if Bitcoin goes to 90, 95, all that?
I was just flashing the Bitcoin chart for a reason.
Bitcoin's flat on the month.
Bitcoin's up 1% this month. Yeah, we don't need Bitcoin to go up necessarily.
It's more just it not going down. If it ranges, people
get bored. They want to find something that isn't ranging. That's when
some capital will flow to other things. And also when it goes up, people are going to try to
do better than just Bitcoin
going up to capital flows. It's normally when Bitcoin goes down that things get a little wonky
because then people just start selling across the board, starting with some of the riskier stuff.
So Bitcoin's flat. That's great for us in the meme coin trenches. We just don't want it to go down.
Agree. Yeah. I'm looking, Tyler, at just some comps maybe for fart coin okay and you know i'm
looking at like where did um popcat with bonk end up maxing out and it looks like you know bonk
hit uh just over four bill with hit about four and a half at its peak. Popcat, you know, almost touch two.
So just, you know, if Fartcoin does have the potential
to be this cycle's whiff or this cycle's bonk,
you know, just some relative comps
to think about where it could go.
I haven't looked at the numbers,
but I would assume the mindshare is higher on Fartcoin
I think Whiff was insane.
Yeah, Peak Whiff with the guy in New York City who looked like he was the guy on stage dancing.
But I also don't remember remember and it might just be because
i'm biased by the follow like people i follow but i follow a good amount of people on like
you know tradfi twitter if you want to call it that or fin twitter or whatever and like
none of them really ever talked about whiff or ball specifically ball whereas like a lot of these
accounts who don't really talk about crypto at all,
they all talk about Fartcoin.
the mindshare of Fartcoin
is percolated into other financial communities.
Whereas I didn't see that as much with With.
And I never saw it with Bonk.
I saw a little bit of it with With,
but never with Bonk as far as I'm aware little bit of it with, but, like, never with Bonk, as far as I'm aware.
I think Matt Levine kind of started that initially on the TradFi side.
And then now it's just become such an absurdity.
Jenny pointed this out early.
A lot of the funny people I follow talk about it, like, liquidity and ramp and, like, those type of people.
So it is funny to see those constantly come up.
about WIF? No. It's just another
fucking picture of a dog with another fucking
I think WIF was more divided.
Before Farcorn, it was my best
And I think even writing that all the way up,
it didn't have the universal appeal.
And maybe that's what you need,
but there was a cohort of CT which hated whiff the whole way.
And maybe that's what drove some of the rally.
I still feel like Pepe is the better comparison of all these.
We saw Pepe go $3 billion first run, $6 billion second run, $11 billion third run.
I was going to say some soft data that could be helpful on Farccoin is your buddy who started up that Farccoin merch business.
See how things are doing there.
Yeah, we'll have to check in.
My promise to him is if and when Farccoin goes to a dollar again, I'm going to buy another piece of merch.
So I bought the t-shirt the first time.
Second time, it'll be the hat.
that storefront back out in front of the masses to drive business up a bit.
Well, that's enough fart coin talk.
I'm sure we'll talk about it again next week as we are contractually obligated
to do. I think the other hotter token on the radar this week was prompt from the Wayfinder team tied to Parallel and Prime.
The debut happened, was it Wednesday or Thursday?
So Thursday of last week, some FUD on the launch.
The token dropped, wow, as low as 11 cents and then rallied, hit 55 cents roughly at peak.
as low as 11 cents and then rallied at 55 cents,
Looks like it's now starting to trend downwards again,
about 50% off all time highs.
Did you look at trading this one?
Is it a future trade for you?
Any just broader thoughts on,
on parallel prompt eco here?
I didn't trade it off the rip.
I also didn't get airdrop because I sold my prime.
Prime is trading at $2.40 now, which isn't great.
I think if the AI sector picks up again,
then this token is going to be one of the leaders.
I think back to some of the ridiculous valuations we had
for shit like Zerobro, ARK, and whatnot.
And I have to think if there's a resurgence in the sector
that Prompt would go up significantly higher
than those all-time highs.
What's the market cap right now?
Is the circulating market cap at 30 cents?
That seems like a decent bet right now.
May I'll think about it more.
it was still trading at like 50 cents.
I didn't realize the last like two days,
it's just been down only but the ftd certainly
is higher yeah routine what happened to routine didn't we have a bet on routine that we'd say
it'd be bad routine is very low yeah like oh wow 330k yeah i mean that any viral trend like that like i mean it's just
pumped and dumps right every time but but i don't think prompt is even comparable to that um
like prompt is like they've been building this for for years now and it's an actual
product that people use one of the only ai products that's like actually
delivered anything as far as i'm concerned um rather than like a white paper and a promise so
but i think give it um a week to a month to cool off like i don't think the ai sector is going to
explode over the next month maybe i could be wrong there but I think if you give it a week to a month and then
find an entry you like, it could be a good play.
I try to trade it based off attention,
always going to be higher than a month down the line.
I mean, look at something like Pengu.
When Pengu came out, it was selling off
a bit. People were buying the dip. They like yeah this is gonna you know this is a no-brainer and then it
went up for a little bit and people were like really excited right they're like oh yeah this
is like a cook like we bought the dip and now it's like if you held it all this time you know
the attention is so dramatically different and the price reflects that i think
that's similar with like a lot of tge stuff so i just try to think about it less on fdv and just
more on attention um and then thinking in the future like what catalysts give this more attention
in the future and what potential liquidity events do you have to sell into. An AI sector market rally,
I think this token does really, really well.
I just don't know when that rally comes
I would much rather own PROMPT,
given the team and the history of what they've put out.
I think there's an argument to be made
that Prompt and Wavefinder,
their broader ecosystem, their product,
is better than every other one on this list.
Maybe it's too premature for that.
And I have to look more into the tokenomics. I know
aren't people who have prime cash
getting tokens every week or every month.
There's a consistent drip of tokens.
It's going to be a drip starting Thursday.
always something to think about too, whereas something
like ARK is fully distributed
And you have to think about that.
You have to know the tokenomics of whatever
you're getting a trade like it's one nice thing about pump as much as people hate it it's like
okay well i know this supply is mostly circulating right um there's not really the idea that there's
this you know staking ponzi with an old token where new people or new tokens are getting
distributed to old holders who are underwater who need
money and provide sell pressure.
There's really not that worry
with a lot of the other AI tokens. So that would be one of
my negative things to say
about it. But at a $60 million
valuation, it feels decent
bet. But not one I'm personally
making yet. I'll wait a few more weeks.
holding this one I bought on launch day. I haven't touched it since then. In disclosure, I am holding this one.
I haven't touched it since then.
I'm also cashing Prime, so I'll be getting weekly tokens.
No plans to sell here in the near future.
I'm going to give the team time to play out.
I think you laid out a bull case very well.
I still think the relative valuations are off.
Like AISBT being higher than this.
But also, it's only 22% circulating.
So that is certainly an important factor.
I think near term, you want to see not a whole lot of additional cell pressure
on these Thursday unlocks.
Like if the token dips 10, 15% on Thursday
and then again next Thursday,
I think that's going to shake some folks.
Do we know roughly what percent of the supply
I'm assuming it's like half a percent or less.
if it's like half a percent or less,
I don't think it's going to tank the price that much.
what new people are going to buy it
relative to the existing sellers
I think that's where just more product development,
more ongoing marketing, and then perhaps just an AI run too.
And we're not quite there yet.
It seems like we're definitely still in a cool-off period.
Even just the broader cookie chart, right?
I look at this thing every day.
No new agents are even being created that's good we don't need any more probably i agree but it just shows you
like this was parabolic growth to no growth effectively i mean agents at one point were
just like the new meme coin or like the new pump thought fund. It was the new NFT.
It was a way for you to extract the most money with the least amount of thought
and the most amount of buzzwords.
And then the market wisened up as it always does.
It is somewhat telling to me
that new launches have literally gone to zero.
I guess the same thing did happen with NFTs, right?
We slowed down to like one to maybe one a week,
one marquee launch a month.
But it finds an equilibrium eventually.
And if there's really a demand for it,
there is a demand for NFTs.
It's just orders of magnitude lower
than what the peak was in 2021.
The same thing might happen with agents.
I still believe we're going to go into a future
where more people are interacting with agents all the time
and finding value in them.
I just don't know what that looks like on-chain
versus just using ChatGPT or Claude or Grok
or the ones that have billions of dollars of actual money
and big brains in them versus
I feel like the biggest part of these
is that the business model around
agents is broken, which is kind of
what you're just pointing out. I pay
What's going to beat that? it's incredible what's gonna beat that
what what on shane is gonna beat that these products are really expensive yeah
chat gpt isn't going to trade tokens for you or or give you a the best yield bearing strategy for your stables, right?
I think everyone was saying how agents need stable coins
and now all the payments companies are building agent rails
So it's like I could get ChatGPT to build me code to do this.
I think there's a world where I can see like i have an off-chain agent that i can
talk to about building me perfect strategies and it basically goes and builds that code for me
and does that thing for me and i don't have to own ten thousand dollars of you know waifu token or
whatever well i guess i think there are good use cases here i just the business model part i think is broken i don't necessarily trust the agents to execute on things as much as i trust it to give
me some like high level overview strategy that i can execute myself in the current state like
i don't want really any agents using my wallets to transact on chain but i don't mind like talking to the
agent to figure out what the best yield is or what a good strategy is i just like like i think even
recently um the the kaido prompt contract there was like rumors that was written with an ai agent
and just like completely foobarred their drop because they uh off source
that or outsource that but i do think we're getting closer to it but it's gonna be it i'm also a guy
who like has a car that fully self-drives and i don't ever enable the future because i don't trust
it um like i'm just generally pretty uh risk adverse when it comes to letting artificial intelligence put me in a either physical position of harm or financial position of harm.
And the idea that I can just do it myself seems better at this stage in all aspects.
I think that's going to be one of the biggest hurdles for adoption.
But I will give credit to the prompt team.
And I interviewed them on FOMO a couple weeks ago,
is they show you the simulation.
So you tell them what you want to do,
they show you the steps on the screen
And then if that is a result that you like,
they'll go ahead and execute.
So I think if you're trying to answer the question
of how do you build trust,
that seems like one of the best ways to do it
is to show a user this is exactly what's going to happen.
Do you want this to happen? Yes or no?
Jeeves, to answer your testing on what some of the the crypto
native agents can do versus chat gpt maybe i'll need to go through that experiment but that would
be the answer um as for building code it's probably just fine but like if you want to do
some very specific querying of on-chain databases um what paths to take,
It feels like they would have a leg up.
At least that's the bull case.
It goes back to talking about,
when we had talked about NFT music
and what that ends up looking like.
You have to think about it
from the consumer side of the house
and how Spotify is such a great product for consumers.
I pay 20 bucks. I have unlimited access to music.
I don't care if it's on-chain. I don't care about any of that stuff.
I purely just care about the ability to listen to music here.
And I think the subscription model for AI is just such a perfect consumer business model for the value that's received from it.
I don't think here with all this stuff,
I think it's just going to take a little longer to figure
out and understand why crypto
and why a crypto business model, why
Yeah, I think that's right.
We're probably months away from
but yeah good time for builders yeah it does feel like though i don't know if you guys feel this but
over the past week or so i have felt that something's coming yes you know how you get
to these points in the market and it's like something's coming some tokens coming some new
innovative things coming some new wave is on its way and that generally comes out of these lulls and then
out of nowhere something sprouts it grows everyone's trying to copy it uh an entire market
forms around it and i feel like we're we're nearing that and so it could be a good time to just you
know get plugged in if you're uh if you're sitting on the sidelines a bit more i feel like once a quarter we get like a game changer it's been kind of my historic like
anecdotal thoughts on how the last three years played out even during the bear there'd be like
one once per quarter you'd get like either a new product or a new token or a new meta
and i guess q1 was probably the Trump token launch, right?
It was probably the thing of Q1, the defining celebrity token slash like
nation state tokens. Yeah. So that was three months ago.
So maybe we're, maybe we're due.
And maybe that will be a good way to end our show here today.
We will see what is the next meta.
Jeeb says, be on the lookout.
Get off the sidelines and get back in front of the screens
or at least start paying attention again.
Well, folks, thank you for tuning in to this week's
We will be back next Tuesday. I want to thank all of our listeners for tuning in. I want to thank my co-hosts. I want to thank our show. We will be back next Tuesday.
I want to thank all of our listeners for tuning in.
I want to thank my co-hosts.
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Everyone go enjoy your Tuesday.