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UNDER EXPOSED: Macro, Citrini, ZachXBT and the Crypto Selloff
Recorded: Feb. 24, 2026 Duration: 1:03:49Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Nice job. I'm going to go ahead and get the ball. Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Underexposed, our weekly macro show,
hitting all the biggest topics and trends impacting crypto and Web3 and maybe even Web4.
We'll go there here today.
So today is Tuesday, February 24th.
It has been a busy two weeks since we were last all together.
The Iran situation escalating, perhaps coming to a head.
Mexico now in a civil war.
A Citrini AI Doomer piece has broader markets selling off.
And crypto, yes, it's red.
Once again, but are there reasons for hope
we're gonna get into it on today's show i'm your host i've got d's in the house with me i'm sure
peter will be joining shortly as well d's gm how you doing doing good we were just talking uh before
the show how i kind of checked out this weekend and checked back in this morning. And yeah, it's not as great as it was on Friday,
but glad to be here.
Glad to talk about all this stuff going on.
And yeah, just another day in the neighborhood.
Another day in the neighborhood, indeed.
Folks, we've got Peter on with us now.
Peter, GM.
How you doing?
Doing great.
Sorry, guys.
Kids are wild, wild, wild ones. But uh yeah it's great to be with you guys excited for uh some chat about ai and what's going on in the
world i'm sure we'll talk some crypto too but uh yeah that's the main thing important question
peter is how was the snow last week ah it was great it was great finally guys got a shitload we finally got some snow which uh
much needed it's been one of the driest winters uh my lifetime here in colorado so finally got
some snow wasn't amazing snow but it was better than the worst snow of all time so uh fun to ski
and happy we're back you sent all this snow to new york and new jersey and uh new england oh man yeah i heard
vermont it's like record snow this year i'm seeing like 32 inches out of like rhode island and shit
and i'm just like yeah i guess the foot we got a couple weeks ago wasn't that bad i don't want to
do 30 inches we're so desensitized to these these headlines now like sunday night mom dying just
puts a travel ban across Manhattan.
You cannot travel in New York City.
Like, what?
Not sure I've seen this one, but it doesn't even faze us.
Literally like historic weather moments happening this year.
And we're just kind of like, yeah, but the market's not at all time highs.
Yeah, but.
Anyway, let's talk markets.
Closet.
Weather we can't control.
Anthropics is going to roll out their weather plugin tomorrow.
And the weathermen are next.
So we'll talk about that.
So what are we talking about on today's show?
Macro, crypto bleeding, the Citrini piece reactions,
the ZachXPT expose,
the main topic on crypto Twitter here in this bear market.
Perhaps getting some tokenized equity
with what Back backpack is doing,
what we're trading,
if anything,
plus a lot more couple of housekeeping items.
We are live on kick as always.
We're also streaming on X.
So if you want the video,
go check us out there and folks,
it is our last show of the month.
So we're going to do double giveaways to eat giveaways at the end of
today's show.
Those are going to be $1,000 each.
Some nice, nice little giveaways.
So you're going to want to make sure you are included in that.
We'll have the code up on the screen.
You need to have been registered on yeet.com under the morning minute affiliate
account.
The code for today may be up, maybe down.
Yeah, well, we'll see.
We'll talk about that, Charlie.
Thank you for the cue.
So we will do those spins at the end of today's show. And as always, before we get started,
quick to disclosure, the opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and do
not reflect the views or opinions of any organizations they are associated with.
We are here to share insights, provoke thought, and maybe even stir some debate. But this is not,
I repeat, not financial advice.
While we talk about markets, investments, and trends, remember your financial decisions should be made with the help of your own research or with advice from a licensed professional.
All right, let's get into it.
I will fire up the screen share here for us.
We can check in on prices and they're lower than last week.
That may shock you, our loyal listeners,
that they are once again, lower on a Tuesday.
So we've got Bitcoin 64.4,
it's down 5% on the week.
It's 1864 down 6% on the week.
Solana down 7% at 78.
So the downtrend continues.
I think macro headlines, the big ones.
So we had the Trump tariffs were ruled illegal by
the Supreme Court on Friday. And then Trump kind of lashed back, put on 10% and a global 15%.
Markets were fine. They kind of shrugged it off on Friday, but then we sold off on Monday.
The Clarity Act odds are falling. This is a big one. I'm watching now down to 45%. That's actually
the lowest they've been in a month.
So those are selling off.
Folks aren't buying it actually getting past here this year.
We've got Iran uncertainty or escalation rather.
I'm not sure when a potential strike into a war may start,
but it seems it is headed that way.
Mexico, civil war breaking out as well.
And I think AI, we'll definitely get into it.
That's the treaty piece.
And this AI fear seemed to be the broader theme.
But Peter, curious, what's jumping out to you?
What's the number one thing in focus right now for markets here in late February, 2026?
I certainly think it's AI.
We've talked a lot about that
over the last couple of shows.
I continue to be just so
much of an AI bull.
There's certainly a lot of second order
effects, which I think is what people are focused
I think the big thing from my perspective
is just how fast this is going
to happen. I do think that maybe we're getting a little over our skis now, but it is amazing just
the rate of improvement, you know, with Claude and even what OpenAI pushed with Codex in the last
couple of weeks has been super impressive. So that's really spooking the markets. People don't know what to do.
People are selling software. We have real concerns around credit specific to some of
these software names and some of these companies like BlueWall that have now stopped redemptions.
So it's concerning because the staple and the main thing that has pushed the American economy forward is growth and the consumer.
And people are concerned that AI is going to replace a lot of white-collar jobs.
And that could have some really big deflationary impacts across the board.
across the board and that's where the concerns are. Um, and you know,
And that's where the concerns are.
can we land the plane of implementing this amazing technology, you know,
making everyone's lives better while still keeping people employed and with
purpose and simultaneously not blowing ourselves up.
So kind of have an interesting parlay that we have to hit here. Um,
a needle, a thread, so to speak. Yeah. Yeah.
And this article got a lot of, uh, definitely impact, uh, so to speak. Yeah. Yeah. And this article got a lot of definitely impact markets.
There's a lot of stuff I don't agree with in the article, but I do think it makes a credible case for kind of how things could go.
Yes.
Maybe let's just dig right into it.
So there hasn't been a whole lot of other substantial top-level headlines.
And we saw that this article came out on Sunday, right?
Yeah, so Sunday it started going viral, picked up millions of views.
It was all over the X timeline.
But then clearly it went beyond just the X echo chamber
because all the stocks mentioned in the article dumped 48% on Monday
with the market open. So clearly this one had
its impacts. I think you kind of summed up the summary of the piece, but basically what it is,
that Trini wrote this thought, it's a thought scenario. He's kind of writing from the 2028
look back and talking about the impacts of AI acceleration in a big one, a white collar job loss, even at just five to 10%,
what that means for markets, what it means for real estate,
what it means for consumer spend.
And the TLDR is mostly bearish,
but curious for your deeper thoughts on that,
perhaps like what you agree with doesn't seem plausible.
What sections you may have disagreed with i still i think the big thing that i disagree with is that a lot of
things are going to be disrupted that have network effect um kind of the doordash example um to me
that i think these networks are still going to have immense value and marketplaces are going to
have immense value so there is a lot of software in in my view, that will have a moat,
but bespoke software is certainly going to be disrupted.
A lot of niche things are going to be disrupted in a big way.
The big concern I do think has real merit is unemployment.
And what are we going to do for people as AI gets more efficient
at doing all these jobs.
Because the big thing to keep in mind,
and kind of where my mind was blown maybe a month and a half ago to two months ago,
is that these are the worst these models are ever going to be.
What they're capable of now, they're only going to get better.
So that's the concern from an employment standpoint.
Of course, it's great when we have these computers that can work 24-7, 365, that never get sick or never have any issues.
The output can be amazing for society, but the short term, the concern is displacing all these jobs.
That creates credit issues and that hurts the consumer and all these other second order effects.
To me, the DoorDash example, I don't think that that makes sense.
I don't think people are going to vibe code up at DoorDash and start using that.
I do think more of what he's trying to point out or saying is that there's going to be
a huge race to zero on a lot of these apps because they're not going to be able to charge
what they've charged back because it's so much easier to make software and compete.
So I think there's a lot of merit in it.
But in general, I think there's other things that don't have as much concerns.
Maybe not the right word, but just to me, people are probably overestimating some of the
things that are going to happen going forward. Now, I think they're underestimating before,
and now they're overestimating. We're seeing it in the markets, and then this piece really
accelerated how people are thinking about it, and they're just selling off all these software
companies. I think there's a lot of nuance to how things evolve. And I don't think every software product's dead.
Yeah.
I have deeper thoughts on that one.
But Diesel, I'll toss it to you.
I don't know how plugged in you were this weekend.
Did you have a chance to, and this was all over the timeline,
so I'm assuming you saw it at least a little bit. Did you have a chance to read through any reactions to the Citrini?
Yeah, I saw it.
I didn't get to read through it, but I am shocked at the impact.
Like I've been following Citrini for two two years now three years i don't know yeah i didn't realize
like an article like that could impact the markets um i didn't realize how much capital might be uh
reading their shit um you know they've put out things before that have been completely right
and they've put out things that have been completely wrong um so
you know i take everything you would read like this the grain of salt but uh i didn't go through
it sure um i've been i've been on uh you know following good alexander for three years and
i saw people memeing that like the citrini thing was like a light version of shit that alexander's been saying for years
um so if if i can just guess what they're they're hinting at uh i i don't feel like i need to fully
read it but maybe i'll read it this week yeah that was i'll have i'll have claude analyze it
and just call me the takeaways i don't even need to read it i'll have claude tell me what they said
that was my first reaction as well.
It was a very well written piece, but I feel like it wasn't that new.
I mean, I think just even just like some of the group chats I've been in, like once or twice a week, we kind of find ourselves talking about,
like, where does this go?
Like, what does this mean for white collar workers?
There's folks who think it's going to be like 20 to 30%.
You may even argue it's lower at 10%. but the fact that it just went so viral my first
reaction was like has no one thought about this before because the common knowledge game we play
where what we think is common knowledge from group chats or conversations we have on the timeline
isn't actually common knowledge until something you know more uh i guess i would say
impactful i don't know if that's the right word but like something like this goes viral and then
it's like oh now now it's actually common knowledge like common knowledge not like common
knowledge with the definition of just um what do you know that you know everybody else knows
um and for a while maybe we have thought that everybody else knew
this stuff because we're in an echo chamber where we think about it a lot more but now it's getting
out of that echo chamber and maybe it's becoming common knowledge yeah perhaps this is the first
time breaking out of a more niche echo chamber so to speak there were some pieces i agree with i
think the the primary ones that were tough for me, the timeline.
The timeline feels fairly aggressive.
Even if you do think this is going to happen,
I don't know that the adoption and displacement will take place in such a
short period of time.
Maybe that's just my optimism speaking out.
The DoorDash example was another one.
I don't know that a Vibe-coded DoorDash app is really going to displace the incumbent,
again, in such a near period of time.
I will say it was very, so like what it does,
one item that I hadn't really thought through
is how AI agents won't have the same thought process
as consumers, and one perhaps would be like stickiness
and loyalty.
So like, let's say
you love uber eats and you never use doordash the concept that your ai agent won't have that bias
and will simply be looking for the lowest cost way to get your tacos delivered at 6 p.m sharp
tonight and what are the impacts of that i will say too just like in general doom posting
always does better than bull posting in uh in markets like we're in right now where there's
like turbulence and uncertainty i feel like any cohesive doom post just like gets people going
on the timeline where i feel like maybe i have read this just from people who've reposted it as like bear porn.
so I just take any doom posts with like a big grain of salt.
I mean,
Peter,
I mean,
there's a lot of directions we can take this.
I know like one,
like the race to zero and fees.
In fact,
there's something,
there's an analogy to like the sports betting markets,
right? Where you build tools to like the sports betting markets, right?
Where you build tools that show the best prices across 15 different books.
Like what has been the impact of that?
Has it led to sharper opening prices?
Like I'm curious just to start thinking through like what,
what are some potential things that we can think through that might take place and perhaps what have we seen already yeah um it's certainly interesting for
a lot of our software businesses in the odds aggregation uh area i still think that um
setting that up and having it uh that's something that has a bit of a moat just because
it's tricky and it's not something that's easily vibe coded.
You can get a decent bit of it vibe coded, but there still are some challenges there.
In addition, I think there's going to be a lot more opportunity, obviously, with prediction markets and different things there.
So we'll see.
But in terms of other asset classes and other things, it just makes, you know, I think there's
going to be more efficiencies in markets. I think one of the biggest things in general is that knowledge
is going to go down in value because it's going to be so abundant and accessible with AI agents and
these programs. There's still going to be superpowers that people are going to need. And I
think the thing I've been trying to think through is as this evolves, what incentives should human beings have for society? And I think
a lot of it will come back to kind of the personal touch, social elements, judgment.
Those things will be at a bigger premium. And hopefully we can figure out the right incentives
because what I'm really concerned about is that people are going to be up in arms and this is going to lead to like, you know, more socialism long-term,
which I know is not your question at all, but that's something that I've been thinking a lot
about. But yeah, I do think that things will get way more efficient. You'll be able to get
things for cheaper. This is a very big deflationary force across the board.
cheaper. This is a very big deflationary force across the board. So yeah, AI shopping.
There's so many just cool things that are going to be built. I mean, like a year from now,
just imagine what the world's going to look like. I think it's going to be pretty different. People,
in some of my group chats, people are debating, is the world going to be very similar or is it
going to be way, way different? And what's the timeframe?
I think in a year it's going to be pretty different.
And then in like five years, it's going to be off the charts different.
I mean, hopefully a bigger implementation of self-driving, robots doing a lot of different
things.
And then we'll see how far, you know, these AI agents and LLMs and I think VLMs are really
what I'm excited about, the visual learning models.
Once those are more proficient,
there's going to be some really cool stuff that can be done,
assuming we get there.
That's the other thing is I think the black swan tail risk
of human beings and machines blowing ourselves up
is going up, unfortunately.
We're seeing it on a micro scale already.
Meta's head of AI safety let a cloud bot run with her email
and deleted her inbox.
I almost thought that was satire at first.
Yeah, it could be.
I haven't super dug into it.
It's going viral.
No, it looked real.. No, it looked real.
Just reading the comments,
like, stop,
in all caps,
it looked pretty dystopian.
And then apparently the
founder of OpenClaw just
replied that the real command is
just slash stop all, you know,
no spaces, one string.
Oh, good to know so yeah every everybody learned that day that if you didn't know the stop command now you know it
so yeah i'll have to i'll have to put that one in memory um but that's just another example i think
maybe just on the timeline constraint and like the thought that these models are the worst they're
going to be they're accelerating very quickly. Yes, I fully agree.
But one of the most competent AI folks in the world is losing your entire email inbox because of some real big activities.
It's going to give larger institutions, perhaps more risk-averse institutions, some pause.
So I do think that perhaps the enterprise rollout timelines are going to be maybe a little
slower.
Um, but on the smaller shops, I think it's going to go faster.
Yeah.
Here's the example and do encourage folks to, to go through this.
It's some, some pretty funny, uh, screenshot.
Stop.
Don't do anything.
Stop open.
Do not do that.
Stop open claw. All caps. like i asked you not to act on
anything until i approved you remember that it seems that you were telling my emails not my
approval yes i remember and i violated it you're right to be upset uh that's not what you want to
see i had to tweet that one yes i remember and i violated it i'm sorry it won't happen again sure
sure it won't um well there won't be any more email to to delete. It's a it's a funny example, but a poignant one. And then now, I mean, Vitalik is already jumping into the anti data center. So this is clearly going to be a growing political issue. I don't know that it's going to creep into the midterms.
to the midterms 2026 but 2028 this might be a top two i mean if this treaty piece plays out
it could be number one right and we're already seeing the protests outside new data centers
dude i don't get the the data center hate here is they're like uh some just or do people hate them
because they're taking up a ton of space near residential areas do people hate them because they're taking up a ton of space near residential
areas do people hate them because they have some belief about energy consumption being insane like
what what is the primary hatred of data centers i actually haven't seen this dialogue at all
well i think the the uninformed is it's just like the the it takes energy it takes water
it's bad for the environment so on so forth but but now it's like this is the lever that The uninformed is just like the, it takes energy, it takes water,
it's bad for the environment, so on and so forth.
But now it's like this is the lever that you can stop AI progress.
If you limit data center growth,
you can at least cap.
Doesn't that put the,
yeah, I feel like that's bad for the US.
I don't know.
To limit the growth of it
just because people are pissed off.
Like, I guess i need to look
into the numbers but my gut is that the energy usage is not nowhere near as much as people think
it is very similar to how like crypto was in 2021 um but but maybe i need to do a little bit more
research there but that seems kind of crazy to me that we're like yeah we want to impede growth
so that we can uh you know, I don't know.
So we can do something else.
I mean, it's like the decelerations take, right?
So it's AI accelerate versus AI decelerate or pause.
And even Vitalik himself is saying this, and this is just today, an hour ago, that arguably the easiest first step is to limit data center growth as a way to
pause the,
the race to AGI.
Of course,
there's a lot to unpack from that take.
You basically need global agreement.
And if you don't have global,
China is that dude,
like,
you're just going to fall behind.
And then can you,
is that a risk you're able to take?
So it's,
it's a complete,
I just read kicks his comment under
the thing right now yeah wow yeah i mean i i feel like that seems obvious i i don't know
that's a longer discussion maybe one will save for another day but i think coming coming back
to markets i as shocked as i was that not many people like this was a new concept to a lot of people i was even
more shocked the impact in markets and like every stock named fell four to eight percent door dash
you know one of the primary examples fell like six or eight percent on open yesterday so the 176 went
all the way down to 163 yeah that's like seven eight percent it's back up here today can i double click on the
door dash thing this is again i think this is one of the most important points
just because you can create software where in theory there could be a cheaper option
you still need network effect because you need drivers and you need the restaurants to come on
board and you need all this to work like it's not easy to go from zero to one
in terms of having this whole network working
where you have the customers using the service with DoorDash
and the restaurants all being on board
and the drivers all being available.
Now I do see a world where obviously
with self-driving cars and everything else, robotics,
maybe in this exact example,
it's easier to think of a competitor that could really be disruptive. And I could see that,
but there are real moats with network effect. You can't just spin up the software and then take
the network with you. You have to build that. And as there's more competition,
it's probably going to be harder to build out these like really big networks.
And we'll see how agents work together.
And it's very hard to figure out exactly what's going to happen, obviously.
But I do think that there's the baby getting thrown out with the bathwater on some of these software names and some of these companies that have legitimate moats.
And then there's other companies that don't.
And they're going to be absolutely screwed because it's so easy to create this stuff and it's only going to get easier
we're already seeing the pendulum swing back so it was the sas the sas apocalypse crm apocalypse
right like those were going to be the first to go and now anthropic had an enterprise meeting this morning, it looks like, and basically saying, no, the concerns are overblown.
And they're still going to be a core part.
They're viewing it more as a partnership with incumbent SaaS vendors versus displacement.
And the stocks on the back of this are rallying 5% CRM stock.
All these others.
DocuSign was up a ton.
Um, and even the consulting companies, like one of the first knee jerk reactions was in
the AI age, like you don't need these consultants anymore.
You can just, the agents will build your presentations for you.
And now open AI is signing partnerships with the leading consulting firms to be their
implementation arms. So I think this is another example of this, of unintended consequences or
perhaps our first order of thinking not playing out exactly like we thought it would. I do just
have like a, like it was, we have a broader discussion, like how fragile our mark is.
Is it the primary takeaway that markets are just fragile in a, in a blog post can send socks down five or 10% in a given day.
Peter,
I'm curious for your thoughts on that.
I have a view of the sophisticated,
you know,
hedge fund moving markets that they would have understood the content of
that article in advance.
So are they just momentum trading to drive it down yesterday?
Is it pure just retail?
I'm curious if you have a read of like the actual. Well, I think there's severe, like there's extreme
uncertainty. And I think that that's valid, right? I think trying to forecast what's going to happen
when you have revolutionary technology is very difficult. And so I think a lot of people,
especially capital allocators are unsure of what to do.
especially capital allocators are unsure of what to do. So when you're unsure,
So when you're unsure,
the least risky thing to do is sell and be more in cash,
which I need to do a little bit more research just to see kind of how
positioning is in that regard.
But I think that that's something that's inevitable.
So I think volatility will probably go a bit higher,
potentially even a lot higher.
The market overall is pretty damn expensive and people are nervous trying to figure out what's going to happen.
So I think when people don't know what to do, that's generally when they are fearful and they make cautious decisions.
And I think that's a big part of what we're seeing now.
That's a big part of what we're seeing now.
It's tricky.
I mean, if you could really nail, I mean, this is definitely a great time to be an investor slash trader for anyone who's sophisticated with a big edge because markets are moving.
I mean, you don't see public equities trade like crypto.
And same with credit.
I mean, credit is probably the most interesting asset class right
now. There's definitely some cracks in private credit. I followed Blue Owl for a while,
closed a short there too early, unfortunately. But yeah, and I generally, I know we talk a lot
about this on the show. I'm almost never shorting the market or sharing names. But when I got really bulled up on AI,
that was one of the more obvious shorts.
I just closed it a little too early.
So we'll see.
We'll see what happens.
That to me is probably the most interesting part
of the market to watch is private credit
and the credit specifically for a lot of these software names.
Indeed.
I've seen some of the cracks there, some of the ticks that could be one of the, like
a potential domino to fall.
That could be a real reason.
I mean, that crashes, then unemployment rises, the mortgages have issues, and you can start
to see this snowball effect.
The reason to be optimistic is we've
seen when that happens, the government's just going to throw, we're going to just print a bunch
of money and solve it that way. So we haven't had a bear market since 2010-ish timeframe when
we started doing all the QE and everything else. And we have this, you know, government safety net.
So it's a tricky time.
It's a really, really tricky time to be a capital allocator,
but I think there's a lot of edge for the people who are really plugged in.
I had one last thought exercise on this topic,
and then we'll move on because we're pretty deep into the discussion here.
Anthropic is seemingly front row, like driving
all this right now, either rightfully or wrongfully,
but they seem to be the one position catching
all the headlines.
Should they front run this
ICO boom? Should they go first?
And would you be a buyer?
The latest I've seen is Anthropic.
They raised it $380 billion.
ICO, IPO around $500 billion
maybe. Compare that to OpenAI at $ AI at 1 trillion SpaceX at 1.25.
I'm curious a,
should they,
should they try to be first?
And then would you be a buyer at 500 billion?
I would be a buyer.
I've actually,
I actually own some stocks specifically because of their anthropic
exposure,
zoom and the ticker SKM, both of those public equities have significant exposure relative to their market cap and enterprise value of Anthropic.
Now, in terms of the positioning within this IPO window, I'm not sure how much that matters.
I think a lot of it just is going to come down to how the markets are doing when it actually launches.
So you'd have to have a view on where things are going.
But yeah, I'm a big believer in what Anthropic's doing. I'm a huge Dario bull.
I think most of the public still just knows about, you know, you talk to some people who aren't on X, aren't in crypto, aren't like technology first. They haven't even heard
Claude. They just know about OpenAI. But what they're
doing on the enterprise side and just the huge revolution they had with Opus 4.5,
they're playing the long game. They've been playing the long game. I guess the one thing
that I'd point out that's a good and a bad thing for their future enterprise value is that
they really do care about AI safety.
And there's the headline maybe last week about them in the government
and basically they were standing to their principles.
So I know, I guess, kind of pick your fighter.
SAM and OpenAI are going to do everything possible
to maximize enterprise value.
I don't think they really care about
some of the long-term implications,
whereas Claude is much more,
and Anthropic is much more, you know, trying to usher in AI in a safe way.
And I think they've made all the right long-term choices, which is why I want to own the business long-term.
At $500 billion, I don't know if it's like a great buy, but I've been actively trying to get exposure at this 350 to 380 range,
and it's been very difficult and oversubscribed.
So I think the market will really want exposure to Anthropic.
I think so as well.
So I like all three of those companies in a vacuum, even at those prices,
even though it's harder.
I think Anthropica would be the stronger horse just because it's so much cheaper than the other two.
I think Anthropic would be the stronger horse just because it's so much
cheaper than the other two.
But I've been seeing these takes, and I just saw this stat coming from – again, this is coming from Claude, so take it perhaps with a grain of salt –
that if all three of these IPO at those valuations, they would need to absorb more capital from public markets than the entire U.S. IPO market raised from 2016 to 2025 combined.
And I've seen a little bit of some of those takes going around and
effectively where's all the liquidity,
where's all the money going to come from to support these IPOs.
And then effectively,
what does that mean?
Are they going to just sell off or is everything else going to sell off ahead
of their launches?
I think global capital would, would, would come in for sure.
For those names.
I mean, these are some of the best, you know, most space, I soap and AI and
anthropic are probably the three sexiest companies in the world right now.
I mean, maybe like a Google or a Tesla sneaks in there, but it's probably those three.
So you're not worried?
I mean, it's a concern.
I just, I'm so bullish on what these guys are going to be able to do long term.
And I think monetizing is just starting to happen.
They're still spending a ton of money to increase output, but I think the prices will
absolutely go up. They're basically giving away compute and tokens at a huge discount for
customers. And ARR, I mean, I think last year, you know, the annualization rate is like up to 14 billion. Their growth is just insane. And I don't see that slowing down.
So we'll see. I mean, obviously, I'm just like a straight financial,
you know, ignoring growth. These are wild prices for all these companies. But just kind of thinking
about where the puck's going, it makes a lot of sense to me to have exposure. And I think
a lot of people are trying to figure out how to be defensive given what AI is going to do and how disruptive it's going to be. So I think a lot
of people would allocate these names thinking that's a way to kind of protect their purchasing
power. Agree. And I think just the broader question of how to play this, like how to play
the Citrini piece, how to play this uncertainty, how to play an AI boom, how to play an AI agent
boom.
And perhaps what does it mean even for crypto?
There's a lot of open questions.
I don't know.
A whole lot of people have the answers.
And on the crypto piece specifically, like the stable coin rails,
but that's a trickier one to even invest in. So I haven't even seen really a strong take on the crypto thesis tied to this.
We'll see how it plays out.
But arguably the biggest headline,
and this is less,
maybe someone adjacent to price action
on the negative side
is the ZachXPT expose.
Unless you lived in Iraq,
you've seen this one
and went mega viral.
Seven and a half million views.
Wow, this might have,
this is a treaty piece.
Pretty big for a crypto scandal
to get to this side. So Zach dropped a teaser piece. Pretty big for a crypto scandal to get to this size. So Zach dropped a teaser
yesterday. Major investigation coming February 26th. That's Thursday. One of crypto's most
profitable businesses where multiple employees abused internal data to insider trade over a
prolonged period of time. The initial reactions to this where it's got to be World Liberty Fi,
time. The initial reactions to this where it's got to be world Liberty Phi, it's got to be
pump fun, or it's got to be the prediction markets. And seemingly all three of those
takes a wrong. So we got the prediction market. Polymarket launched one yesterday within a few
hours of the post going up. As of today, Meteora is in the lead at 31 percent though that's down from a high of over 50
mexi in second at 16 pump one and third at 12 percent um good amount of volume on this market
i just want to point that out i wasn't expecting to see like almost a million on meteora and 7
million um is this been out for even 24 hours we're probably approaching
24 hours here yeah so i mean that's pretty pretty nice to see 7 million worth of volume and there's
not a clear consensus winner um which is also fun to see so you know i would have thought the the
people who were exposed for insider trading would say it fuck it, let's do it one more time and blast this.
Or maybe there's so many of these that are insider trading
that employees at all levels are like, fuck it.
Like, yeah, I know we're doing dumb shit
and I can get 20 to one on this or 10 to one.
So, you know, maybe that's the truth here.
Some of these protocols have done insider trading
and insiders are betting on all of them,
which is scrambling the market.
And that's why there's no clear cut winner.
Because it could be any clear winner.
Oh gosh, incredible.
Deez, I'm curious, your first reaction is when this came out.
I'm curious what was going through your head.
My first reaction when it came out was,
oh, this is a Binance thing.
But looking at the list here, maybe it's not a Binance thing i think meteora we already know what the libra and the hayden
davis stuff how they were uh you know maybe working to set up the most extractive lps possible
with the people doing the extracting so that would be kind of counter you know that would
be anticlimactic um to see a meteorical a meteor article come out um
hope it doesn't end up underwhelming yeah i don't know yeah so like it's giving these breadcrumbs
right so this i think this takes off the big business it's gotta be profitable and he hopes
it's not underwhelming which like it's not like buying a binance takedown a coinbase takedown
wouldn't be underwhelming so it's like it's not those guys so it kind of puts more you're like middle of the
range and or perhaps expected if i had to bet i'd probably bet meteora and i hate it as an
outcome um just because i think it's the most boring outcome not that i'm rooting for any of
these to necessarily have insider i'm rooting for our space to collapse yeah i just if it would it would
be nice it was fun you know did you ever think like pump fun was one of the the more pervasive
early takes i feel we were we chatted a little bit about it i feel like you didn't really think
it was ever going to be them no i mean I mean, my gut reaction with PumpFun is, you know,
maybe around trending tokens,
like what we saw with OpenSea back in 2021,
where like, you know, Nate Chastain knew that, hey, this token,
or this collection was going to show up as like a trending collection on OpenSea
and would inside trade them.
So thinking
through pump fun like insider trading
angles, I feel like the
trending or the verified thing is
one of the only things that came to mind.
But maybe I wasn't being creative
enough.
Like maybe they are working
with some teams to launch, but
the price action of the pump token,
I mean, that's a crime itself
um so so maybe there is something there that's what the back of my mind i was like oh maybe this
would explain this like virtually unexplainable price action for this token uh yeah with
millions of dollars of buybacks. One of the most profitable.
Looks like roll bit.
Just constant buybacks,
million dollars a day in profit,
and still just totally down on life.
This has been a rough one.
So I guess it's kind of revisiting those lows, I guess. So where did it bounce off last time?
Right at the 1.68.
Are you ever revisiting this trade
or are you out of this trade forever?
I feel like I'm, I mean, forever is a long time,
but I feel like I'm out of it
until at least the unlocks happen.
I'm just kind of, you know,
if this is price action before unlocks even start,
I don't want to know what it's going to look like
when people who are up, even at current prices,
they're still up like 10x plus.
Yeah, I'm not looking forward to that.
It's tough.
So it seems like it's going to get better
before it gets worse.
I mean, speaking of unlocks,
I think arguably the most surprising price action since we've last spoke
was Layer Zero.
So they came out with the pretty blockbuster announcement
that they're going to be running their own chain.
It's going to be super fast.
It's going to have privacy.
Market loved it very briefly.
We saw the token spike all the way.
Have you been following any of Brian's tweets in the last
week or so? I'm behind
and we are going to have Brian
on FOMO this Thursday, so I'm very excited to talk
to him. Okay, so something
that happened that I didn't
know that happened with this price
action is that
a good
amount of the supply, like
let me see if I can pull up brian's tweet and find it but he
basically tweeted like at the ftx estate sold a shitload of the zero token right after this
announcement like i don't remember if it was 28 million tokens or or some something but like
mid eight figures worth of size so there was a lot of
selling pressure that uh came into the announcement from the estate and he put out a lot of things
that you know make you want to be bullish on the token like he put out a a list of you know
quote unquote the utilities or the reasons to own the token um which i thought was a good list so i think zero
is gonna be a good trade at some point this year um luckily when we were talking about it and you
mentioned the unlocks and stuff and i was actually up money and like pissed i sold some to put it
in the lighter i was like all right let me just sell the zero here uh and that ended up working
out really well because now i think i sold it at like $2.10 or $2.15.
I had like a mental stop
and once that stop was hit, I was like,
okay, I gotta go cash these out.
But I do anticipate that I'll be
buying back into zero this year.
Yeah, I was looking for
the unlocks
and the CBB tweets
is the easiest one that I have.
But basically the circulating tokens are going to nearly double by end of the year. It looks like roughly turning it to,
so they're going to be up to 800 million currently around 500.
It's not quite a double, but up 60%.
It's a big increase and it's a shame because I think on the fundamental level,
this is one of the strongest announcements we've seen.
It's definitely like a news you'd want to buy.
But because of the unlock overhang, it became a bad buy.
So it's an unfortunate scenario.
I do feel like this is one to put on your short list, though.
And eventually this,
this is like,
this could,
this becomes one of the better traits out there on the market.
So I'll be curious to talk to Brian directly in here more,
but nasty sell.
So I didn't see the F the FTX piece.
I'll have to look into that as well.
Yeah.
I went through some of his tweets to try to find it.
And I can't find the FTX one,
but I did find the one where he said like 10% of the circulating supply was dumped. And then he also made a point that some percentage of future unlocks
are purchased and bought back already.
So like, you know, the chart that shows the unlocks,
it's not necessarily uh a full
cell pressure scenario which is kind of similar to what we see with like things like hyper liquid
where we like oh there's this big unlock coming but we have this uh bias to think like well the
team isn't going to sell the unlock they're just gonna relock it um so something like that in play
but I think if you can buy this around a dollar at any point,
like you throw like 50 or 100 grand into it, let it cook. But maybe that's just me being
optimistic. But that's kind of where I'm at. Like if I can get this close to a dollar,
I am happy throwing in a little bit. And maybe we don't get a dollar, like a dollar,
yeah, $1.20 or whatever. Like that'd be, it was just two dollars and almost 50 cents um so the fact that you know nothing's really changed and we're able to get a
nice discount on it is interesting to me i'm with you i think one of the most interesting tokens on
the market i'll keep investing in these quote-unquote you know layer twos layer zeros whatever
uh just i'm like the last japanese soldier the infrastructure
still got arbitral unlocking we're gonna get some layers zero in there like the last japanese
soldier hyper evm we're in the missile have you been trading anything else and it's been kind of
a quiet period a couple losers on the FOMO app
that aren't even worth bringing up.
Yeah, we don't talk about that.
Still in Banker.
I still like what's going on with this AI agent ecosystem.
I don't know if you followed Lobstar this week.
Oh, I did.
With the Tet anus shot
and the Lobster giving 250K to a person who responded to his tweet and
then they market dumped the token and then they're like you know i don't know i don't know what it
was at but it went down to like sub three mil like that yeah that one wick in the middle
uh i mean there's still dumb shit happening around this space um like the kelly clods and the uh what's the clod
bot by the eth dev and and whatnot i didn't didn't trade punch when i saw the meme that was a mistake
punch had a really nice run um which that might be over might not i don't know it's 25 million still
which might be over, might not.
I don't know.
It's 25 million still.
But just punch the monkey.
These clips, man, they kill you.
You're looking at this monkey with his fake mom
as a stuffed animal getting bullied by the other monkeys.
And like, yeah, of course, this token ripped.
I didn't trade it.
But it's nice to see any of this stuff happening honestly like
it in the bear markets before 2021 like 2020 bear market there wasn't shit just like running with 20
million out of nowhere um so i always keep that in the back of my mind when we're like full doom
and gloom it's like well 2018 like i i don't remember anything being interesting everything
i put money into i lost lost only i lost all of it and now it's you know there are idiosyncratic
pockets of shit just doing stuff even when the broader market's down also um on my list that's
up a lot in the last two weeks is tibber like it went down a lot which is why it's up a lot but it
went down to like 80-ish mil.
And it's more than doubled off the bottom, which isn't that impressive if you zoom out.
But just like anything doubling at that market cap over the last two weeks is enough to give me some interest.
I sold Tibber for Banker a couple weeks ago.
Kind of worked out for me.
I missed the trip to sub 100 on tibber but then i
also missed the the buying opportunity down there um some tibberless and holding banker instead but
that's the only other like bigger ai bag that i think has been interesting that's got some uh
good price action since we last talked i've been in those two as well bankers hanging out at 55 60 it took
that big hit when nikita basically said he was going to block any of the crypto tokens that
people trying to source like to get the the creator plugged in right and it's yeah harassing ai devs which is not great not a great look for
for ct um and banker responded but it seems like the market hasn't really responded so we'll see
where this one goes but at least you know they're going to be around and they're kind of in the
forefront of the ai meta the ai on chain meta 2.0 3.0 whatever version we're on now i do think it's
one of the more interesting plays i i whiffed on the Conway token,
the creator of what I forgot.
Yeah, Conway.
That was another one.
Yeah, I missed that.
I checked out for four hours.
Oh, dude, we're back.
We can get a generational entry.
What is the wrong word?
I bought it the night before the huge run at 3 million.
I sold it for a small loss,
and then it went to 10
missed the 3x and then i chased it at 10 and now it's down 90 yeah um not many people even had
had the chance to buy it at 10 um you did yeah i was able to the web 4.0 thesis and what got for
me was like he actually had real users who were buying and
testing out his automaton piece like all right like there's actually whether or not he's larping
i got the idea of i'm going to sell the infrastructure to people who want to launch
their own agents and let them try to effectively compete on chain to see if they can make money
like that resonated with me i was like there's going to be some demand for this.
And then for whatever reason,
the market hated it and it's,
it's swiftly gone to zero.
And then up 37%.
So maybe we're back.
We will,
we will see.
But other than like the,
the AI on chain base trade there,
there really hasn't been a whole lot else other than punch.
And then kind of
waiting for entries on,
on majors or alts that you like.
We're taking a look at the copper trade on FOMO this morning.
so perhaps they may revisit that one a bit,
but kind of slim pick.
Yeah.
I got copper on the list still,
still looking at it every day next to gold and silver
which uh gold and silver have rebounded also since we last talked uh they've had a pretty
good week um you know it's good what my dad is telling me about the the silver dip prices and
the price being good again so gold is just insanely strong just never every dip is a buy it just yeah i goes right back i haven't
even thought to buy the gold or silver on chain either yet i know we talked about it i had only
thought about copper but um i look at them every day and i'm like yeah they're looking better than
the crypto tokens on the same list which is what it is i guess i hadn't looked at this so gold is
the fifth biggest token on
hyperliquid by open interest the stock index top 100 is number five and silver six and then
and then another gold token wow so things we like to see crypto has the first four spots and then
you don't go and then the privacy tokens have nine and ten or xrps 9 rather than zeke i read that exactly more um so it's a
pretty balanced list now for what people are trading yeah meanwhile i look at the zcash chart
i'm like when do you buy this thing back is it like is the bottom in at 200 ish and
uh that's another one i keep looking at because maybe that leg is all we get and that's it.
Because that was a pretty explosive move from September into November.
But a lot of Zcash bulls still on my timeline.
I don't know if that's the algorithm or if it is reality.
I think that's your algorithm because I don't see it at all.
Okay, it's just probably Merton of all.
I like it.
Skewing it for me if you're comfortable just
taking on the trade on a very long time horizon like it could very well be chopping in this zone
for the rest of the year and that wouldn't surprise me but it wouldn't surprise me if
it goes back up also i don't think it would yeah is it gonna drop much below 200 i don't know and
it feels closer to the bottom than the top, I guess,
would be my view.
Yeah, it's interesting.
It's one of those things where
if we open up Hyperliquid one day
and we're looking at the funding rates
and we see the funding on this is negative
by like 100% like we did back in September
into October,
it's like, yeah, I might take a stab back at that.
Don't hate it at all. Like, would I rather buy that or pump? Like, I might take a stab back at that. Don't hate it at all.
Would I rather buy that or pump?
I'm going to buy Zcash.
I don't even know.
There might be similar valuations again now.
But yeah, it's tough.
It's a tough time as a crypto asset allocator
because you're like, well, I just buy stocks I like
and buy metals I like
and buy other things that aren't crypto related and do better.
But that's generally, I think, when we do find some good opportunity that people are ignoring.
So at least that's what I tell myself as I go and force some computer time every day to look at this shit.
At least what crypto doesn't have is what what that stocks do face right now is the
daily anthropic minesweeper tweet where what what's the proper what's claude's plugins going to be
today today it was hr and investment banking maybe they're going to make a launch coin launch uh a
launch pad agent and then that's just going to kill our our pump and banker and every other launch pad back.
I have one comment on crypto, and that's the biggest signal to me.
Look at the volume and open interest on LiDAR and Hyperliquid.
A lot of names that aren't crypto, a lot of RWAs, which gives me optimism. I'm interested in both of those projects still, especially if we see a really big sell-off
in crypto.
I think those are two names to really pay attention to.
It could be some really good buying opportunities because these are real businesses.
And what is genuinely exciting to me is both these platforms becoming bigger and bigger
just to speculate on not just crypto, but a whole bunch of assets.
Obviously, we've seen commodities rip. Now stocks are ripping. I mean, there's so many
different things that are trading with real open interest as well.
I am surprised how low the open interest is on the equity side of lighter. I was expecting those
to be higher. I just looked at them and there's only a couple even over a million and not over 2 million.
Also just randomly,
like there's a 95 million market cap shit coin arc and it has 27,
almost 30 million of open interest on lighter.
Wow.
Yeah.
The,
the way the funding is
set up is the people are long.
Something going on.
With our
ARC?
If you look at that on Leiter.
Yeah.
I just didn't expect to see
that high of an open interest
of MarketCap when I was scoping out
the random pairs.
But yeah, some of these old AI bags like Pippin too.
I mean, this thing is way higher in market cap,
but like boggles my brain.
Pippin hits 700 million.
Pippin's at 800 million.
Yeah, you're seeing that, right?
You're seeing that, right?
That's not a glitch. It's not 80, that's 800. Well, Farcoin's at $800 million. Yeah, you're seeing that, right? You're seeing that, right? That's not a glitch.
It's not $80.
That's $800 million.
Well, Farcoin's at $140.
I just think so much of the supply is controlled, maybe, on Pippin.
I haven't looked at the holder dynamics or the bubble charts or anything,
but the only way I can see that at $800 is just like,
it's the same reason, like, what was that token on base?
Brett? Was it, like, a bill because it was so insider-owned that at 800 is just like it's the same reason like uh was that token on base brett that was it like
a bill because it was so insider owned and this you don't sell you can keep going up like i feel
like that's going on pippin i'm sure it'll happen for one of the coins one of these days just just
a matter i am also holding a lighter little bit small very small bag like i don't even think it's 10 of what my height bag is
but it's enough that i uh feel exposed it's an interesting one i think ct's number one coin to
buy on a big dip would be hype um lit maybe in the top 10 but i don't think it's as consensus
of a buy yeah i think i think people hate lit or i don't know if hate is the right word but like i
think people look at the lit chart and they're like, I don't want to fucking touch this thing.
which kind of makes me a little bullish because I,
I do feel like we're,
it's similar to zero where like,
I don't think this is going under a dollar.
so getting opportunities to buy it close to a dollar feel pretty decent.
I mean,
it's hard to like.
Yeah.
I mean,
I mean, if that, if that's not a bottom what is Tyler
I think so many people
the XPL is still
so fresh in their minds
that people
aren't chasing
aren't chasing some of these
let me zoom out on this real quick
and I know I think last week I brought up
or two weeks ago I brought up
Will Price's Lighter vs. Hyperliquid dashboard.
But I'm still checking that every few days, too.
I threw through it in the chat.
But that just way to compare, you know, they compare LLP and HLP.
They're comparing the crypto and RWA portions of volume and revenue in the premium that we're still paying for for hype
in their revenue versus lighter so it's just good it's good like lighter propaganda um
there you go which is why i like it i'm a lighter bull i talk to will all the time i'm in some
group chats with him including a lighter uh lighter lighter bold group chat with my light tards
these are my guys it's great uh and i check out this dashboard and talk about a really cool
uh vibe coded app i mean really impressive what uh was made here one thing i've taken for granted
with crypto and it's not something i really thought about until vibe coding stuff myself is just how like accessible a lot of our data is first I mean like Pokemon card sale data
which you think would be accessible is not super accessible and you might be paying for like premium
APIs to get certain data and stuff whereas like so much the crypto shit's like what happens on
chain it's transparent you can just pull it from what's happening on chain.
Really nice.
The on chain stuff, turns out the transparency on that data is very good.
And I just issue a warning to people out there because I still know so many people are like,
oh yeah, I just did crypto.
I don't have to worry about it.
I don't have to pay taxes, all this stuff.
These are the most public ledgers out there. Trust me.
Do you think the IRS isn't going to use AI?
Trust me.
Anything you're doing on chain, just assume it is public.
Maybe if you're using some of the privacy tokens, you can be fine.
It's just so funny to me how I just hear people like,
oh yeah, crypto, it doesn't matter.
It didn't touch my bank.
If you want something that doesn't matter,
just go to a Pokemon card convention with cash.
There you go.
Not financial advice or legal advice.
We'll replay the disclosure from the beginning of the show.
On that note, I think that's a good note to end today's show.
We are two minutes over. But we got to do our giveaways. All right.
So producer Charlie, a couple of big ones.
I know our commenters are desperately waiting for,
for the wheel spins here today. So we're going to do two.
I think one of them is going to be weighted and one's going to be more open.
But let's let's go ahead and give it a spin.
As you're for a thousand bucks each, nice little wins on this's go ahead and give it a spin. These are for $1,000 each.
Nice little wins on this Tuesday.
Let's give it a go.
Marble Mayo.
Oh, Marble Mayo.
He's there live chatting.
Love the Light Tards comment.
And now he's the fresh winner of $1,000. So congrats, Marvel Mail. He's there live chatting. Love the Light Tards comment. And now he's the fresh winner of 1,000 Yeet Bucks.
So congrats, Marvel.
The team will work with you offline here.
Let's do our second run, see who our second winner is.
Oh, this is the weighted.
All right.
Okay.
So this is where the volume comes into play, folks.
So when you're actually playing heavier on neat,
you'll have more chances to win.
He's got like a third of the time.
The big dog.
All right. Psycho Holder was the big dog,
was the biggest one on there.
And it looks like they were active commenter today as well.
So Producer Charlie will work with you both offline
to get those funds across the board.
Congrats on winning.
Peter Dees, thanks for joining.
It was a fun combo here today.
I'll be seeing you guys.
Looking forward to next week.
We got to get Jeeps back.
He's hanging out with senatorsators in D.C.
What the fuck's going on?
This is the back call to Jeeps
You took the picture with Loomis last night
I give him the direct call when I'm at the gym with him
He's got little kids and everything else
We gotta get Jeeps back in the mix
Once a month or something, Jeeps, make a cameo
We need you back
People want some Jeeps in their lives
Thank all of our listeners for tuning in Thanks to Deez and Peter, folks Did you make a cameo? We need you. We need you back. People want some Jeeps in their lives.
But we'll thank all of our listeners for tuning in.
Thanks to Deez and Peter.
Folks, we'll be back next Tuesday at 12 p.m. Eastern.
Until then, have a great week.
Goodbye. Bye. It's done.
