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UNDER EXPOSED: Macro + Invest Act, Corp Treasury Stocks & Pump Fun
Recorded: July 8, 2025 Duration: 1:04:31Space Recording
Short Summary
In the latest episode of Underexposed, the hosts discuss the bullish trends in the crypto market, including rising stock prices, significant token launches, and the growing interest from corporate treasuries in cryptocurrencies. With the upcoming pump fund token sale and substantial inflows into ETH, the conversation highlights the evolving landscape of digital assets and the importance of financial education for the next generation.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning, this afternoon, wherever you're at.
We're going to start the show here in just a minute.
We're still getting our speakers up on.
Cybernoma, GM.
Who else we got?
Mossy, Zanzibar, Ampfex
GM, GM
It's Brian
GM, A-G
All of you, thank you
for joining us
D-GEN's live account
live over on KICK
KICK.com slash D-Ggen live to join us over there.
All right.
Since whenever you're ready. so This is a production of WGBH. All right, GM everyone, and welcome to episode 33 of Underexposed, our weekly macro show
hitting all of the biggest topics and trends impacting crypto and broader
web three. Today is Tuesday, July 8th, 2025. Folks, summer is heating up. So are markets,
stocks finding new all-time highs seemingly every week right now. And yet our crypto majors
are still in the chop zone. But it feels like we're on the brink of a big move.
The question, is that move up or down?
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
I'm your host, Tyler D. I've got my co-host in the house.
First up, D's collector, coin stacker, and a whole lot more, GM.
How are you doing?
GM, another simple week with not a lot to unpack
can't wait to get into it yes not not a lot uh to unpack but in fact uh quite the opposite it was
even with a long holiday weekend still uh a substantial amount uh things have taken place
happy to have peter back after a week. Peter, GM, how are you doing?
GM, yeah, sorry. This is out of Pebble Beach. A ton of fun, but eager to be back. A lot to dig into.
Yeah, pumped.
We missed you last week. Last week was a big macro week as well, and we had Robin Hood.
So we're going to have to get your belated take on some of the Robinhood news from last week as well.
So we're excited to hear from you on that.
Folks, we've also got Jeebs on with us.
Across Internet Capital Markets.
Jeebs, GM, how are you doing?
GM, guys.
Back of a week.
Back of a month.
Feeling crazy.
Feels like markets are, they would stand up to the next level.
I feel like that is consensus take,
but I have seen the opposite side of that take.
So we might have to get into that on today's show.
What are we talking about?
Vestax is a part of that.
Vestax is a part of that.
We're not macro crypto we are going to talk robin hood this corporate treasury stock trade is heating up we got to get into that a bit and then react to
this pump fund token sale plus what we're trading and more before dive into that one house give you
note we are live on. Make sure to go follow
our channel. We will be streaming there going forward. All of our shows across FOMO Hour,
Rector Radio, and other shows. You'll want to catch us over there. And before we get started,
the opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views or
opinions of any organizations they are associated with.
We are here to share insights, provoke thought, and maybe even stir some debate,
but this is not, I repeat, not financial advice.
While we talk about markets, investments, and trends,
remember your financial decisions should be made with the help of your own research or with advice from a licensed professional.
Let's go to fire and see here for those who are in. We are green on the seven day.
Bitcoin is up 2%.
ETH at 2570.
It's up 6% week over week.
Solana.
Stocks have hit new all-time highs in that time. I think from a macro perspective,
some of the biggest story from the past week, it looks like the big, beautiful bill
is going to pass. It passed the Senate last week. So I think we are just
waiting on Trump's final approval of that. Bitcoin, he said that it was going to be tax exempt for transactions under $300,
did not sneak it in.
So really no direct crypto impacts to this bill.
The invest act is an important part of this.
$1,000 for every new American child to start an investing account.
So there's a lot of implications there.
We had hopeless embrace Bitcoin. account. So there's a lot of implications there.
We had Hopeless embrace Bitcoin and also spin up his new political party,
the America party. So certainly a bit to unpack
there. From a macro crypto
perspective, keeps falling down on their
calling for Bitcoin. 135K Q3 200K.
So they are quite bullish on Bitcoin.
They are not the only ones.
And this corporate treasury trade continues to become more crowded and to heat up.
We had Sharplink Gaming and Bitminer become the first two micro strategies of ETH in the past few weeks.
And then just yesterday, CryptoMiner BitDigital,
their stock pumped after they announced their existing corporate treasury
from Bitcoin over to ETH and then also raised $170 million to buy more.
So now there are three major players in the ETH.
It does not seem like that is going to slow down. There are three major players in the ETH quarter.
It does not seem like that is going to slow down.
We did see some fairly substantial moves in rate cuts or the odds of future cuts.
And odds of a cut in July were up to 25%. Last week, now they're down to 5%.
And September is looking much less certain as well.
So perhaps some impacts from language as well as the BBB.
So those are some of the topics to get into here on today's show.
Peter, I'm going to throw it over to you first.
I'm curious what might be jumping out to you the most from macro.
And I also want to get your thoughts on
the big beautiful bill and any big takeaways for kind of what it might mean
for broader economy for crypto and all of it yeah the big the big thing that's happened that you
know there's a lot of signals around it's turned uh became obvious obviously tariffs are impacting
things to a degree but broadly uh you know this austerity and getting control of this fiscal deficit, which was kind of going to go up nominally because we're going to spend more and more money.
And it is what it is.
The fiscal train is just full speed ahead.
So we've seen that reflected in capital markets, specifically with equities.
Crypto is obviously bounced back to basically all time highs.
I would not be surprised to see it break through all-time highs and have a big
run up. Certainly risk on the downside to it. I think we should discuss that and be balanced.
But broadly, the main thing that's happened here is more spending, hopefully, but this austerity
that was pitched is not happening. And that's just the nature of where we are. I mean, politicians
don't have an incentive to stop spending, incentive to give money to their constituents.
And here we are.
BBB is a more emphasis of that.
More tax cuts, more spending.
And the fiscal train is just going to continue.
So you need to protect your purchasing power by being invested in that
that are going to go up nominally.
Hard to argue with that.
The denominator is becoming worthless,
I think, is becoming a more common narrative.
And that is also this kind of the hard reality.
And I do think it makes,
it kind of forces folks to have more of an investment.
G, any reactions on your side from the BBB
looking like it's going to pass
Elon firing up his new party
curious for your
I think Jennings is right
and just to add to that
I think what they wanted versus getting them being like the Trump camp and the people that wanted austerity measures, etc.
It looks very different. You know, I think there's a lot of people that are really upset here.
And I think that, you know, at the end of the day, Trump still needs to play politics.
And I think that, you know, at the end of the day, Trump still needs to play politics.
Jeeves, we lost her.
We lost her.
All right.
Can you guys hear me?
Yeah.
All right.
All right.
So Jeeves, we lost briefly.
We'll try to get him back.
Yeah, now you're back.
Yes, there are any measures that are coming to face.
I think that there's a very big disconnect in what the administration wanted versus what they're getting.
But I think they're looking at this as a growth opportunity and the ability for us to grow
our way out of it, even though it's going to add a boatload of debt.
So I don't know if that's true or not, but kind of hopeful.
Yeah.
I mean, the optimistic view is that we will grow our way out of it and focus on.
I want to dig into the other aspect of the BBB.
I've seen some talk.
We chatted a little bit about it in our group chat over the week.
I didn't go super deep.
But as a part of the big, beautiful bill, the Invest America Act is expected to pass.
It looks like kids born after December 31st, 2016 will be eligible. the big, beautiful bill, the Invest America Act is expected to pass.
It looks like kids born after December 31st, 2016 will be eligible,
and then all newborns born basically in 2025 onwards are going to get $1,000 account seeded in the S&P 500,
so effectively a 401k from birth.
All American kids getting a name directly from the day they were born.
There's a lot to unpack here. I think I did the math.
If this had existed back in 1985
when I was born and I'm aging myself, it would be $1,000 would be worth
either like $40,000 or $80 eighty thousand uh and i am 40 years old but just to give you a sense of how that compounds over time
peter curious reactions on your side to this and then perhaps agree like what who are the winners
uh like what is a pretty big change yeah this is great is great. I mean, to me, it was certainly things to pick at.
Personally, some of the gambling stuff is going to hurt me
and some of our businesses.
It's really hard for this. I think it's really hard for this.
I think it's just so smart to get people skin in the game and understanding how powerful compounding can be.
And there's also a big incentive for kids,
which I think is also the tax credits for children increased with this bill as well.
So that was definitely one emphasis with BBB
was incentives around having kids.
So I love this.
I think in general,
I'm of the view that you don't want,
you certainly want equal opportunity.
And this is one of the things
that can help reset that for people
is giving them this when they're born.
It definitely can compound in a
really positive way. And the most important thing to me is the education around how powerful
investing can be. You mentioned what $1,000 would be now and a really big compounding from a returns
perspective is going to come over the next 20 years. I mean, if you get three more doubles on
either 40 or 80 grand, you're looking at either
$640,000 or $320,000.
So it's pretty remarkable what that can turn into.
So yeah, I'm really passionate about this.
I think people need to be educated on investing.
I hope that that's a bigger part of our educational system in general.
I wish I would have learned more about credit card debt.
Certainly student loans is a thing that I think a lot of people regret and just the
power of investing.
So I love this.
Yeah, kudos to Gershner and everyone for getting this done.
You're all 17-year-olds, 16-year-olds in your class.
Here's the performance of the account that all of you had.
You can show it right that's a powerful example i think it is a product that is easier to add into right so parents who may not be that savvy of investors but they know just in
general they want to save for their kids here's a product that you can perhaps just add to over time and continue to accumulate.
And from an investing standpoint, this is also just an ongoing twop into the S&P, right?
So now the government is going to be pumping $1,000 in every time it's born in the S&P.
So there's a bit more of an ongoing bid there as well,
which is notable.
There's a question of,
you know,
what are the other players who potentially are winners here?
And is Robinhood potentially one,
right?
The more investing savvy,
this younger generation is,
are they one?
I saw you come on. I'm curious if you have thoughts.
Yeah. You know, I think as you look at just like population growth across the U.S.,
you know, we're experiencing just aging population, child birth rates are down,
and it's clear that we need to incentivize people to have
more children over time. I think that's become pretty clear. And anything that we can do easier,
more affordable, better for all income classes, I just think the better it becomes for everyone
over time. And so like you said, Robin Hood, huge winner.
I think we did some back of the napkin math.
$1,000 for every child born.
I think it's like $3.5 million born per year.
I think this goes January 2025, 2020.
I actually only calculated.
But if they have the best case, they have the best investment.
if they have the best case,
they have the best investment.
Now they're managed product that,
you know, they have a robo-advisor product
that competes with Wealthfront and Betterment,
charges, 20,000 bips.
I mean, that's huge for them.
It's great for Robinhood.
I do, or at least maybe I'm starting to think
that a lot has been priced into Robinhood
and it's looking a little bit expensive than that.
I mean, I'm a huge Robin Hood bull, so I'm not exactly the right person to ask.
But yeah, I mean, if you just look at the chart,
it's definitely a lot more expensive than it used to be.
So it's all a lot more expensive than it used to be. So it's all beholder.
Certainly where it's priced now, you have to forecast out a lot of growth,
which I certainly think is on the table.
Love the move they're making.
Really impressed, to be honest, with just the pace that they're executing.
Using so many different products.
They're really trying to be at the intersection of all speculation we'll see them get
more involved in prediction markets and sports view so to me that's a great
place to play and most the time you see startups move at this pace and then get
and then get bigger and then they slip out.
bigger and then they slow down
From a PE perspective,
I mean, this was trading, you know,
in the 20s before now, it's like 53 and a half times for a P ratio, which is, you know, NVIDIA is at 51.
You know, there's a bunch of cuts in that 20 to 30 range.
50 is quite expensive, but there's certainly a lot of growth in my eyes going forward.
And we talked about long hood, short circle.
That's done okay uh you know again
going back to this plan we're not financial advice but that was one pair trade that we thought
made a lot of sense and uh i still think i still personally have conviction around that trade
yeah that's fair one way to look at it solana and robin hood are like the same market cap right now. 80 billion.
What would you rather own?
It's tough.
My bag says Solana.
But if you made me buy today,
it's probably more likely to buy Robinhood.
Tyler?
If I had to hold it for like six months,
I would probably buy Hood. I think I am leaning hood.
Since I have Solana, it's a long-term cap game status.
I'm not currently selling it or taking out a loan to buy hood with it.
And Peter, I'd like to hear a little bit more about your thesis,
but I think what's been eye-opening to me,
and of course I see this chart, it's up 130% on the year.
So in some ways it is hard to build a position here and enter the trade. But I see folks like Darren talking about the trillion-dollar Robinhood roadmap. And I see everything they're doing. Vlad Tenet, I was incredibly impressed at his presentation in Cannes.
Khan. He just seemed like a man on a mission and also was just so sharp, so well-spoken.
He explained all of their new products, and it was a slew of new products. We talked about it a bit
on last week's show, but we saved some of it for you, but tokenized stocks, new private companies
trading on Robinhood, even though there's a little bit of perhaps concern over everything there,
on Robinhood, even though there's a little bit of perhaps concern over
everything there. Purps, their own chain.
They're clearly going bigger into crypto. They seem to be one of the primary
winners of this new investing, gambling trend from the
younger generation.
I can see them being the face of this broader
movement. It just feels like a strong play.
I don't know that I summarized the thesis all that well,
but I'm curious if you could maybe summarize your thesis,
if you don't mind.
Yeah, I think you did a great job.
I mean, to me, it's very simple.
They're the platform for speculation.
And the younger generations want to do it.
People are going to be incentivized to speculate more and more,
especially in an environment where your purchasing power is going to go down
if you're not taking risk,
which I think is a really important thing for people to understand.
So I just think it's going to incentivize people to invest, which is great.
And in general, younger people should be taking more risk,
which is going to lead people farther and farther out of you know the speculation curve and they really get it i mean they've built
gamified investing which you know brought in a lot of people and now they're aggressively moving
into other avenues um they're on new chain um you know obviously the perpetual game we've seen the
growth of hyperliquid and other perpetual um you know, and just the growth of perps in general across the crypto ecosystem.
So I think that's incredibly sharp.
You know, there are people that are licensed, the European tokenizing stocks over in Europe.
That's probably the thing I'm least excited about on a relative basis.
There are people who are licensed and set up.
They basically kind of built this product to get around some of the licensing.
And that was the way they were able to move really quickly.
But I do see a world where, you know, more real life assets are tokenized.
That's something that we've all been excited about within crypto for a long time.
And I think Robinhood is positioned as well as any company.
So in the event that, you know, we see more and more private companies tokenized,
other real-life assets,
maybe real estate tokenized,
Robinhood's positioned extremely well for that.
So basically, if you're bullish on speculation growing,
I think Robinhood is one of the best platforms
and bets to make around that.
And I certainly think that's going to be the case,
especially since people's purchasing powers
are eroding every day with the
decisions our government's making.
There's a strong thesis.
And I think I'm,
I'm looking at opening up a position here,
starting to DCA,
maybe look for a bit of a pullback.
I think you said it was a little overheated.
You kind of want to look at it maybe in the seventies or eighties.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I trimmed about a third
to half my position because i i you know i had a really high conviction in the 30s and it just
runs so hot and i think this is just one of the really big winners of this year and i think
naturally you know you start to see pullbacks part part of my thesis is like if this was going to go to 110, it would have went to 110 already. Met resistance at 100. So I think we are going to see at least a little bit of either chop or some downward pressure here for a tiny bit.
of time before a lot of the things they're doing actually materialize into high fees and then
revenue for them. But I think like, you know, if you squint and you just want to hold it and
it's something you're like, I'm not going to sell this for 10 years or so. Great position. I just
had a different trade that I wanted to put on in the moment. And this is just a huge winner for me
this year. So what I do love is kind of like what Jennings said, right?
They're releasing all of these products in Europe.
And if Vlad was on CNBC or Bloomberg, one of the two this morning, and he was talking
about how, you know, Europe effectively has the regulation in place for them to be able to push out a number
of these derivatives. So the big market unlock is really being able to trade some of the private
positions, your SpaceX's of the world, your andurals of the world, these companies that are
remaining private for longer. And if you think about like where this goes, and he said this, they're just testing
and working out all the kinks before they're able to release this to the US markets. Leading into
that, and once regulation gets to that point, that's when I'll be trying to build my position
back up pretty heavily over time. Yeah, I think that makes makes sense and also just to level set it just ran up 3x
from april to june right so a bit of cool off wouldn't surprise anyone um just quick
tangent here and i want to come back to the solana and talk through some of the crypto majors
uh we just got tokenized stocks really for the first time last week. Kraken launched a few others at the same time as Robinhood.
And now AVO is already going 1,000X long.
They're offering new products where you can go 1,000X long tokenized stocks intraday.
Wall Street hours, Wall Street bets energy.
wall street bets energy um and i'm just calling this out because it's it was i found it notable
And I'm just calling this out.
that within a week we already have we went from tokenized stocks to hyper gambling on on tokenized
stocks so i do think we will see more and more products built on top of this uh and i do think
tokenized product market fit is tyler like this is the product market fit think tokenized stocks are great. This is where the product market fit is, Tyler. This is the product market fit.
Clearly. Tokenized stocks are great, but it's like levering the tokenized stocks and gambling heavily on them.
Forget zero-day options.
People are just going to, I think, start using perps.
Why would I buy a hood stock?
question soul versus uh soul so it is a direct comp
um it feels like hood is correct more of a direct winner than soul if you want to bet on crypto, to me,
it's not me being bearish on Sol.
I'm not seeing that narrative as much it being a direct winner.
There are other reasons
to want to be bullish on Sol.
I think for me,
a big trend
in the crypto market
right now
is the inflows.
And it's inflows
from the ETFs
and it's
in the crypto market.
I think we're going to start with this.
So, we've got to do the procedure for six to 12 months.
I know there's a little bit more, and there's more, more cash flow trying to cut db in a protuberant plan
but it's a little weird to me
man, it looks like a good girl
um, it's just an open db
uh, we're gonna have a guest
how are you feeling about Bitcoin, ETH, Sloan, cryptocurrency, July 8th, 2025?
Are you seeing any trade changes as well?
Yeah, I guess I would just elaborate on Sloan, saying like I have the lot of spaces in the solar market, so that's the whole reason.
I'm interested in still holding the rest of it.
That being said, I know maybe we were talking about bottoming as it was going into May.
That's still pretty much in the same range.
Bitcoin still looks stronger to me.
So if I was today, maybe still buy Bitcoin.
But I do think TPTC, it's hard to imagine it going lower than it was in April when it was like 50-40 for a Bitcoin.
And I don't know if we're seeing, like, you know, it talked about having some ETFs that have been around for a while
and seeing flows go through them.
I don't know if we're really seeing that with ETH price action.
Like, I noticed the flows are good for ETH,
but the price action isn't incredible.
So I don't know what that looks like for Solana,
even if it happens or not.
And I don't know what the fuck the Trump family is doing
with this crypto.com token
and their ETF,
but that's another can of worms, I guess.
Yeah, the Truth Social announcement
from this morning,
they're launching a new blue chip ETF.
It's going to have Bitcoin,
ETH, Solana, XRP,
and then CR.
That wasn't
a curveball.
I'll
elaborate.
Why is
Tron not in there?
That was my
first thing. I was like, where the fuck's the Tron at? Tron not in there? That's a good question. I'm surprised Tron's not in there. That was my first thing.
I was like, where the fuck's the Tron at?
Tron makes more sense, right?
Tron's a top eight token.
You take out Tether and USDC.
I mean, it makes sense.
Tether.com has...
Look at the ring, Tyler.
Well,
seeing that's actually a decent pivot to some of the corporate treasury
topics that we've had.
And there's now this nice
eGithreserve.xyz
that I came across
quoting this.
But you can start to track all the different
ETH reserves out there.
And you can filter by public companies.
And there's been a lot of movement.
So we've talked about SBET Stock,
Sharple and Gaming,
led by Joe Luba,
and they now have 205,000 ETH,
526 million.
They've been at...
They just announced
they added 20 million last week.
I brought the news at the beginning of the show out of BitDigital,
which just pivoted their Bitcoin corporate treasury over into ETH.
And that was on top of Tom Lee and BitMiner and everything they were doing.
and everything they were doing.
I thought this was an interesting tweet.
I thought this was an interesting tool.
Gaming and BitDigital have eaten up 80% of the net new ETH issuance
since the merge.
Spot ETFs hold 4 million 11X.
Basically just looking at supply and demand
from corporate treasuries and the ETFs.
This is a strong case, and this doesn't even treasuries and the ETFs, this is a strong case.
And this doesn't even get into ETH the product as much as it's just the flows.
They are not slowing down,
that they're looking to perhaps even pick up the pace.
And I don't think these are just going to be companies who come in and get up the ETH reserves.
On top of that, you have just the diversification of portfolio.
Increased inflows into the ETH ETFs because of that.
I think last week, July 3rd, we had $150 million, one of the biggest single days in February.
So there's a lot of signs of this for ETH.
And I know the price hasn't budged yet.
It feels like it is a trend that's going to carry it to the next level.
So I am starting to get a little more bold up on ETH because of this.
And I've been starting to DCA into some of these treasury stocks,
specifically Sharp on Gaming and SBET.
But, Jeeves, maybe I'll throw it to you.
I know we've been talking about the corporate treasury trade a bit.
Curious for your thoughts.
yeah i think just like some general thoughts on it is that my first thought is that i i personally
think that it's a very clear bubble right now but i think that bubbles can go on for
periods of time and last for a while. With that said, when you're in these
times, I think
there's clear opportunities
to make
about these companies
I tweeted this, I think, this week or last week, but like all seasons happening and it's just happening with these treasury companies.
There is pure fever and speculation around them.
made up and put out there to, you know, have these companies effectively look as if they're
providing some form of yield or like additional crypto that's being put in per share. And mostly
what they're doing is just issuing, you know, equity to be equity financing to then
buy additional crypto to put inside that treasury.
I think, you know, like I said, this could happen for a period of time, but if you look at GBTC, ETHE, for example, they have premiums for a bit of, and then effectively they sold
at discounts for a while.
And I don't know what that timeframe is.
A lot of these companies are going to end up looking like that.
And then, you know, you're effectively going to have to sell the crypto, especially if
they go previously underwater.
So for me, I respect the crypto a lot.
I respect that there's a lot of people interested in these stocks.
I respect that there's a lot of people interested in these stocks.
And it's really interesting seeing notable people like Tom Lee.
Tom Lee is a huge fan.
He has a huge following.
He's the permable.
We've cited him many times.
love tom lee uh and he sees a clear opportunity
Love Tom Lee.
And he sees a clear opportunity.
so i'm not a participant in these but i will respect the pump and and watch
um i think part of my bull thesis on some of the leading corporate treasury stocks is that
i think this is going to last for a while i don't think it's
months i think we're in the early stages for me it's stronger
i think also yeah and so that's the time i'm looking at this trade
How are you evaluating to trade out of these, Tyler?
clear is
Are you looking at the underlying versus the market cap?
And then is there a ratio at which you go, this is just silly.
I want to sell this.
How do you exit this trade?
And when do you exit this trade?
It's a good
question. I've been monitoring
ratio market cap
underlying assets. More from
entries as I'm DCing in
and then I think from a target standpoint
it's more just my belief in
that creator
I think
we'll be able to
start
in their marketing
I don't know if folks saw this
I tweeted about it yesterday
and again I'm kind of talking my book here.
But they're at the NASDAQ.
They're running ads.
Yeah, more of like a sentiment.
I like to see. yeah more more of like a and then more from a fundamentals
I just showed this tweet
and Logan, shout out to him, he shared this
with me from
Sailor's Investor deck, I think that went out
yesterday and part of the
reason that they're going
down this path is just
the amount of capital interest, crypto directly versus equities and credit plays.
And it's just orders of magnitude difference.
So the pie is substantially bigger, like it or not.
substantially bigger, like it or not.
And I think that's why some of these stocks can trade at premiums
and can trade at for a long time.
So that's how I'm thinking about it.
Peter, I'm curious if you've given much thought to the corporate treasury trade,
if you've been looking at any individually or just broader takes.
Yeah, I'm looking at them really closely.
I think it's really interesting.
Obviously, it should be net bullish for crypto in the short term.
My concern is just what happens on the back end.
If, you know, not if, I guess, when we have kind of a pullback bear market,
what are things going to look like?
But certainly if you're short-term bullish,
I think there's a lot of opportunity here.
And my big thing is, yeah, Tom Lee is probably the most famous permable out there.
And he gets a ton of airtime on CNBC and other really important places.
So to me, that's really impactful.
And, you know, again, going back to what we've talked about a lot on this,
just a big believer in Nick Tavino and kind of his thesis
and how he's invested in crypto and just how he's been so directionally correct.
And he's just continued to bang the Ethereum drum.
So I've been trying to express that view.
It has not gone that well, obviously, with the
Ethereum price, but there's certainly a lot of really good setups currently. So I'm really
interested in this. I think it's kind of an interesting way to express a bullish view,
especially in an IRA where you don't have the same tax consequences as a traditional account.
It's pretty interesting. Just the question is, what's your strategy in and out?
Like Bitcoin, I've just held indefinitely. I have an asset allocation broadly with a long-term
strategy of buy and hold. The thing I'm trying to figure out is, do I feel comfortable holding
one of these for the long term? Because I certainly see a lot of downside. And I think one of the vicious things that could happen with crypto is that, you know,
we have a bear market and then there's a lot of forced sellers.
And that certainly would be concerning.
And, you know, it's hard to, you know, when things are going so well, we have all these
good headlines.
It's hard to predict when that would happen.
I think probably the most tangible risk that I can point to is just how it's become more
of a political issue. So if we see kind of the midterm shift and it looks like the Democrats
will win in 2028, then I guess you could start to see some concerns with crypto. But
there's always black swan events and it's tricky. So I guess, do you guys feel comfortable holding
any of these assets long term? I guess it's something that would be part of your long-term strategy versus
just a speculation instrument. I'm not there for long-term yet. And I think partially because I'm
not in the strategy trade. I think that, I mean, it's the clear number one, right?
I've been putting assets into Bitcoin, but not into micro strategy.
So I should be upfront about that.
Largely because of the premium,
not because I don't believe that Saylor will be able to continue to play it out, because I think he will.
And a lot of the newer ones,
I think they're just too new to have that much conviction in.
I think we need to see more to really have a longer term foundation.
I think Joe Lubin and Tom Lee are probably two of the bigger people to bet on.
I think they can pull it off in a longer timeframe,
but I think we need to hear a little bit more about their plans and whatnot.
I have Tom Lee's argument for ETH up on the page.
I also thought that was interesting.
Fred Krueger broke it down.
Notable coming from a Bitcoin maxi.
Wall Street loves stablecoins, stablecoins on ETH,
treasury companies coming in,
the concept of programmable money,
and more access for sovereign funds,
which I thought was an interesting bull case as well.
And in a lot of ways,
these are also like levered bets on the underlying assets.
I think you have to think about it,
at least partially from that lens.
So if you're not bullish on the underlying asset,
then you probably have to ask yourself,
like, what are you doing in the trade?
So I think I've become more bullish on ETH through all this as well.
Which of those two would you bet on, Tyler?
Let's call it a six-month time frame.
Are you going to bet on Tom Lee or are you going to bet on Joe Lubin?
To be clear, I want to bet both um because i think it is it
is hard to pick but i i think last week i would have said tom lee and this week i'm actually
leaning more lubin uh just because of how quickly i've been running out this new marketing campaign
and i think tom lee has more airtime perhaps but i think think Joe has more firepower, perhaps more connections.
So I'm leaning more Joe and SBET these days.
I think anyone looking at the BitMiner stock needs to be aware that the shares
that they raised that have not hit yet.
I think those come through like around July 19th or so,
and then the share price will settle.
So if you're looking to enter a position on that,
just be aware.
But man, what a fantastic trade that's been.
Just quick side in the last week
that thing's been at 10X,
which also just goes to your point of alt season.
So alt season has been happening,
but it's been happening with some of these stock trades,
which is absolutely wild.
I think something else to be aware of.
I wanted to quickly get your thoughts on this.
I know we've got about 15 minutes left in the show, and we're going to cut the hour.
I feel like part of the BBB passing is everyone's – it seems like consensus has flipped more bullish,
mostly because more printing, that's going to go up.
Assets are going to go up. Assets are going to go up.
And starting to hear more calls for all-time highs on Bitcoin sooner rather than later.
Arthur Hayes in his latest blog put out a bit of caution on that.
I'm not sure if folks have seen it.
And Arthur Hayes is certainly not always right. But
his position is
the BBB is very bullish
over medium term, but
not necessarily short term. And what
he's cautioning against
effectively is that
the Treasury has been
effectively
giving dollars out
and they're going to have to rebuild their,
their coffers and this treasury general account,
which is going to contract dollar supply in the near term while they do that
and drive the dollar up effectively.
And I think also somewhat notably I've seen,
I don't know if folks saw this,
but the dollar DXY did a death cross last week.
And the last four times the dollar did a death cross,
it bottomed and had fairly substantial rebounds.
So that's just something I've been watching on more of a near term basis to
drive decisions on like when you're thinking about entering
positions in the next few days versus on a long-term time horizon.
But curious if anyone saw that or has any just broader reactions to,
to how this summer might go. And if, if you're thinking Bitcoin all time high is soon,
you think it's going to be Q3, Q4,
or are we just out of pocket at all?
Peter, maybe I'll toss it to you
and then happy to go around the horn.
Yeah, just to kind of go the other way,
and you're bringing up my main,
if I was going to paint a picture
for the argument against kind of
the short-term all-time highs
and just things going up nominally.
The short dollar trade is basically the most popular macro trade out there.
I mean, the dollar is down like 15% this year.
Everyone kind of,
it's a consensus view that you want to be short the dollar long other things.
And when there's a really crowded trade, oftentimes it goes the other way.
It's hard to see why, um that's kind of what that's why investing markets work the way they do um when when there's huge consensus
generally uh the opportunities on the other side so the way i could see things going the other way
is the dollar you know has a strong move up. And that would obviously impact
things like Bitcoin, gold, et cetera. Those would most likely fall in that scenario.
So I always try to play devil's advocate. I definitely am really bullish on Bitcoin,
short, medium, long term. But if I were to paint a picture on the other side, basically,
my main argument would be, we see the dollar move the opposite direction because it's such an overcrowded trade.
And this is a technical reason why that could be the case.
And who knows?
This is obviously a really, really big macro topic.
And you listen to macro podcasts, almost everyone has the same view to be short the dollar.
So we'll see how long that continues to play out.
But that would be the main case against kind of all-time highs in the short
term.
That's where I've been coming around to lately.
And it doesn't change my, like I'm still longer term bullish.
And I still think Bitcoin 150K plus Q4.
But everyone's just so sure that the dollar is going down and it was eye
opening that the last four times this event has happened, it's flipped the other way.
And just the broader concept of the crowd not always being right
when they're that crowded into a trade.
So we might have a little more summer chop.
Deez, I saw you come off and you're curious if you have any thoughts.
Yeah, I mean, we're 3% or so away from an all-time high.
To me, that feels more likely than not to break.
I think in the next month or two,
I would be more surprised if it didn't break an all-time high
than if it just jobs.
Or did I say that wrong? I would be less surprised to see it break an all-time high than if it just chops or did i say that wrong i would be less surprised to see it break an all-time high than to see it chop that's what i meant sorry got it so all-time high
do you do you feel like it so we hit 112 112 5 113 do you think it shoots straight to like 120
no it feels like we're just like slowly chugging up.
And then some point, you know,
there's a guy with $8 billion in Bitcoin and wakes up and he's like, I need to sell this.
And then billions of dollars worth of Saylor
and other corporate treasury buys later, we're back.
So I don't think it's going to like candle up
to like 150 or anything crazy,
but I could see it. I don't know, 120 doesn to candle up to 150 or anything crazy, but I could see it.
I don't know.
120 doesn't sound crazy.
150 does.
I could see it go up like 20, 30%. So I guess that is like 130-ish.
But yeah, I'm very cautiously optimistic.
I'm positioned for that.
I'm very positioned for it, which is why I'm biased.
But we've been positioned for this all year.
Every fucking show we talk about all the good regulatory news
and the medium-term bullish things
and how we've never been in an environment like this.
And the price is wagging the S&P so I think eventually all that
turns you know as like jet fuel but maybe it doesn't maybe
idiots in the consensus waiting room lobby
speaking of consensus I haven't talked about it but I'm definitely curious about the pump dot fun
yeah let's get into it.
That thing's been all over the timeline.
You have on one end of the spectrum.
And then on the other hand, you have people comparing the pump business model and revenue
with things like Hyperliquid and other big winners.
And you could maybe argue it's cheap.
So I think if you look at more of the month-to-month stuff,
it feels a little riskier than if you look at the overall metrics.
But definitely curious what people's thoughts are on that.
My gut reaction a while ago, which I didn't do,
was to sell Solano and by pump when pump released uh now i'm i'll take a little bit more in the middle with it um
long pipe and one of the first times i feel like we've seen another launch pad actually get
i don't say start to be adopted but but it's definitely put things that are harder to ignore
than the other secondary launch pads.
Absolutely.
Just to quickly set the stage, folks, if you didn't see this,
I published a pump token sale page yesterday,
sharing some tokenomics, 1 trillion tokens,
150 billion tokens up for sale, 0.004 per 150,
sorry, $600 million potential raise at a $4 billion valuation.
The sale would be to go live this Saturday. Notably, that website has been taken down.
So we aren't 100% sure on all. And what Dee's just mentioned was some of the new competition and progress. This is not timing for pump fun,
as let's bonk has taken all the way up to a 60% market share just in the past few days.
Potential.
Maybe.
As well. I think you should let internet capital markets do internet capital market things.
I'm not going to participate.
I'm excited to watch.
I hope it doesn't suck a ton of liquidity away.
I think it has the potential to.
But hey, this is internet capital markets right here.
This is what people want.
Why are you participating?
Too expensive?
If it was at $1 billion, would you be participating?
Yes.
100%.
So you don't like it?
I don't know that this is like a 100x opportunity,
but I think this is a good opportunity,
potentially, for the right people that are interested in this.
Pump has a ton of fans.
They want to continually innovate.
They have mindshare.
I think this is a really interesting...
Maybe I'll participate later.
But as with any token, I think you can see ups and downs really fast.
I think one thing that I don't see here and that I haven't seen anything on
is how much liquidity will be added to this initially.
I don't know if you guys have seen anything there.
There's a lot of key details missing.
A lot of liquidity, you know, AMMs do their thing.
So I'm not going to participate.
I'll watch.
And, you know,
wishing the best for anyone that does participate because this is truly
internet capital markets.
Peter, give us your thoughts.
Yeah, well said. I mean,
the bull case for me is that I've heard so many people just talk about this
team. And obviously the execution of this team is incredible.
The amount of revenue that they're able to generate,
the amount of cashflow they're able to add to their business.
I want to bet on people like that.
The counter is there's a lot of details missing.
It's pretty expensive.
We saw what Monk just did with their launch.
So I see a couple of really strong reasons to try to bet on this team.
And then at the same time, the kind of details around
what actually happens with this token
relative to the platform
and then the price give me pause.
So I'll probably observe,
see how things go.
Definitely still interested.
I mean, someone, you know,
one of you is a screaming buy.
I'd probably get in
just based on kind of trusting this group,
but as of now, it's the case, so I'm probably just an observer.
But is anyone banging the drum to buy this?
I'd say I'm banging the drum, but I am looking at what Circle did
and some other stupid shit and wondering if this
is maybe slightly too cheap not the more i think about it the more the middle iq take is just to
completely fade it um it almost reminds me when i think it took the mid road but i just put out a poll to see what people are doing
um and if more than you know 70 of this poll says they're not buying it then that would
probably make me want to buy it more um but we'll see what the polling looks like. It's still early. We got 30.
What's the bull case here?
Like what FDV is the bull case for pumped up? I think you wouldn't be surprised if it like four or five.
Like 15, 20 bill.
I think it's a better play to size into
take a a thousand dollars and just hope you make a ton of money it's like a play where you put
six plus figures into hope to get a quick multiple and then get
definitely not something i'm trying to like put in a long-term basket and hold for a long time it's definitely something of a buy in early when people are saying it's a clear fade um sell within
three to five days after people were realizing that you know revenue number big fdv a low
circulating number even lower good good short-term momentum play type analysis on them.
I don't know.
We talked about it a couple weeks ago.
I didn't sell the Solana.
I think that's pretty priced in.
But I could see myself in a bag.
I'm a buyer.
I don't...
I read with Deez's statement
where this is a size in play
where you can hope to maybe get 50%,
maybe even 1-2x,
2-3x rather,
on the upside.
And I don't want to front-run
your poll results, Deez, but for Okra
in his poll, 84% said no.
Oh, really?
Okay, so there we go.
That's bullish.
Oh, man.
It's very hard to tweet anything
and get an 84% no.
You have to tweet something.
Very obvious. People who kill
people should be punished. And then people
will vote 80% yes.
The fact that
we have
on fading it
makes me think it's not the worst thing.
I guess if you're a hardcore meme...
Go ahead.
It's a whale game.
Like at the end of the day,
like there's a number of players that want to get anywhere from 10 to,
I've heard upward of like a hundred into this round,
all with the expectation of like that two to five X.
So I think it's one of those interesting where
just know the game you're playing
as we talk about all the time.
Know the game you're playing. Know
when it's up.
And know what you're looking for because there are going to be
some really big and likely sophisticated
players in this game.
Is there a chance this is a guess or
$600 million
open public sale.
For sure.
There's going to be some people that are upset they didn't get it.
I have no doubt.
And it's really fast.
There's no doubt in my mind.
Is it going to sell out faster than Plasma?
Technically not the same,
but the Plasma dollar lockups that happen in
two minutes, do we think it's going to be that ridiculous
or do you think it's going to be
under an hour? I think it'll be
more ridiculous than that.
This is one
of the best products that we've
ever seen.
Let's go. Jeeves is
bowled up.
I'm bowled up.
But he doesn't want to buy it.
He doesn't like the price.
We're talking him into it.
After he watched what happened
on 2000 PE ratios.
How can we tokenize Circle
and get it trading
on the spot market, Jeeves?
How do we...
Tf lined up
for pump already?
Like why are we not adding pump
to this Trump ETF
that has crypto.com?
I feel like pump would be perfect.
Pump an American company?
I don't know.
But I'm curious.
I'm glad we have a date. It was annoying a month ago or so and we had this
uncertainty around this we were watching um some of our bags sell off in preparation and now it
almost feels like the sell-off isn't as bad or it doesn't feel as bad because like um that last
week of may first week in june like some of the meme coin markets already
priced in this raise um like i remember watching fart coin go from a dollar fifty to like 90 cents
again like and a day or two around the bottom we get the news oh hey uh for those who have been
paying attention and are in the right private group chats there's a pump fundraise
happening
hey guys I gotta run
I'll just top of the hour I didn't realize
I was going over
I think we'll be able to do this next week
I don't think
more details from the
pump team there's still a lot of open questions
as we talked about but one of
the biggest stories to watch in crypto folks thank you for joining us here today
listeners want to thank my co-host as always we'll be back next tuesday
at 12 p.m eastern until then enjoy your week talk to you soon goodbye We'll be right back. Thank you. This Thank you.
Host
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