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UNDER EXPOSED: Macro, Summer Crypto Outlook & InfoFi Overheats
Recorded: June 3, 2025 Duration: 1:01:49Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the latest trends in the market, including the rebound of coins post-sell-off, significant partnerships like Circle and BlackRock, and the innovative financialization of Bitcoin. The conversation also highlighted the growing interest in Ethereum, with substantial ETF inflows signaling a bullish outlook.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. what up jennings gm gm everyone thank you for joining us here this morning this afternoon
wherever you're at we're going to start the show here in just a minute a A couple shout outs. Who we got? BGF, Cyber Nomad, JD Black, CJ
GM. Thank you for joining us.
Spicy L.
3Pud, J.
Make money. Alright.
Thank you all for joining us.
Alright, I got D's up on
stage. I'm sure some of the other
counts will be joining us shortly.
Everyone's in the studio. Sims, I think whenever you're ready, let's kick it. Thank you. G.M. and welcome to another episode of underexposed our weekly macro show hitting all of the biggest
topics and trends in crypto and across web three.
I'm your host, Tyler D.
I've got my co-host in the house before we dive in though.
Folks, today, Tuesday, June 3rd, and summer is here.
Kids are out of school. My kids are out of school.
It feels like folks might be checking out for summer already,
but yet our coins are rebounding after a late May sell-off.
And the question is, is sell in May and go away the correct strategy this year?
Or is this summer different?
We're going to break it down on today's show.
Once again, I'm your host, Tyler D.
I've got my co-host in the house, starting with D's art collector, coin stacker, rocking the die hat.
D's GM, how you doing?
Doing great, man.
Best of summer, in fact. We got a How you doing? Doing great, man. Best of summer in fact.
We got a bunch of exciting things happening in the market,
and we got a full house today, so glad to be here.
Glad to have you on, as always. Shout out, Dai.
Yes.
Crushing it.
Indeed, big week. Big week for Dai.
Every week's a big week.
Folks, every week's a big week as well.
Our macro expert founder of several companies
still hanging out with us peter gm how are you doing
i'm doing well uh pumped to be with you guys yeah i'm excited for best ball summer got some
good news uh out of camp for rj harvey who i was stoked that the broncos drafted
bullish on uh his uh opportunity this year and the player that he is.
Love playing him in college football DFS.
And yeah, there's a variety of things happening in the market that are really
interesting.
I'm really excited about some of the nuclear talks on the energy side.
We can dive into that.
Facebook just made a deal.
I've been a uranium nuclear bull for a while.
And of course in crypto,
you know,
we never have any boring moments anymore.
There's so much going on
and reasons to be optimistic.
And then from a macro standpoint,
certainly reasons to be optimistic,
but also pessimistic.
So we'll dive into all of it.
It'll be a good chat as always.
For sure.
Before we dive into those things,
I need your thoughts on the NBA finals.
Is OKC going to sweep it?
One of the biggest favorites I can recall seeing
hit it into the Finals?
Barring NG, and I liked the Pacers versus the Knicks,
so I got that one right.
Broadly, they've been a good playoffs
from a betting perspective,
but yeah, to me, this is a really tricky spot to bet
because I think the Thunder roll the Pac, and it's priced that way.
Specifically because the Thunder's defense has been one of the best defenses all season, you know, from a historic standpoint.
And then the playoffs, that's been really consistent for them.
I think the Pacers, while they have a lot of depth and certainly it's a great story, I'm bullish on their outlook going forward,
and it's amazing to meet the finals.
I just don't see how they're going to be able to score
as efficiently as they have.
And then on the opposite side, they're not a juggernaut defensively.
So the Thunder are a historically great team,
especially from an analytics and efficiency standpoint, 68 wins.
They've been broadly dominant this playoff.
So I think it's priced appropriately.
Really, an injury needs to happen for the Pacers to have a chance in my eyes.
Seems that way.
But it's still been a heck of a run for the Pacers and, of course, OKC.
Hal Burton, superstar.
The trajectory has been really fun to watch.
And he's going to have to play unbelievable as well as siakam and
then the role players will have to step up to make it competitive it's just the thunder have a lot of
really good players to throw at halliburton and i think defensively they're going to really slow
down this pacers office i think that's the right take i'm hoping the pacers depth can perhaps keep
them in this and just keep a fast pace but i don't know if that's going to be enough against OKC.
We'll see.
Hopefully at least in entertaining finals,
as some of these last OKC series have been blowout,
at least this last one.
But we'll talk about more of the NBA on today's show.
We've also got Jeeves on with us.
Early stage crypto VC, devils in internet capital markets,
wears a lot of hats.
Also, sparkling water connoisseur.
He was giving us the sparkling water alpha.
I'd say show, which is timely because those Rectrics are live on sale right now.
Shout out to Obi and the Rect team.
But Jeeps, GM, how you doing?
Doing great, Tyler.
Good perspective from Jennings there on the finals.
I'm with you.
I'm just hoping for a good series here.
Enjoying watching the French Open going on. We have two of the american guys playing today tiafo's struggling right now and then we
have uh tommy paul playing alcaraz here in a couple hours so i've been watching that pretty
closely it's been a it's been a fun french open so far and yeah pumped to talk with you guys
because there's a lot going on in the world this week and last week. Indeed. Well, let's get into that.
Disclosure, the opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers
and do not reflect the views or opinions of any organizations they are associated with.
We are here to share insights, provoke thought, and maybe even start some debate.
But this is not, I repeat, not financial advice.
While we talk about investments and trends, remember,
your financial decisions should be made with the help of your own research
or with advice from a licensed professional.
All right.
Well, now let's get into it.
I'm going to fire up the screen share for those who are in the stream.
Let's take a look.
So Bitcoin hanging out 106.5.
It's been grinding up off the local bottom, but it is down about 3% on the week.
ETH has been outperforming.
ETH hanging out 2620. It's down a point and a half on the week. ETH has been outperforming. ETH hanging out at 2620. It's down a point and a
half on the week. Solana down 9% on the week, though up 6% on the day at 162. If we kind of
go around the horn from a macro standpoint, we had NVIDIA earnings beat right after the show
last week. That happened on Wednesday. That was bullish. But then at the same time, this reporter pressing Trump on the taco trade and him learning about what taco means and perhaps stirring up some more tariff controversy.
We have quite a tariff rule in the past five to six days, increases, extensions, and now perhaps trade talks happening between U and china on friday so we'll be
looking out for that at the same time people starting to get made more concerned about the
housing market a bit of a glut of housing supply i think a record high inventory on the market right
ahead of today's show from a crypto perspective more specifically i think ethereum might be leading the headlines
for really what feels like the first time in a while we had this new update out of the ethereum
foundation announcing this new initiative called protocol three primary goals scale the l1 scale
the l2 and improve ux metallic commenting that they should have scaled Ethereum by 10x over the next year.
So some big news there.
We had Circle capture some big interest from BlackRock around their IPO.
BlackRock going to scoop up 10%.
That made them boost that initial IPO valuation to 7.2 billet.
So it's going to be a little more expensive, a piece of circle.
So it's going to be a little more expensive, a piece of Circle.
We had Saylor and Strategy announce a new stock, preferred perpetual offering with Stride, STRD.
So he's going to continue raising money and using financialization to buy more and more Bitcoin.
So that much is pretty clear.
We had Robinhood complete their acquisition of Bitstamp.
This is going to unlock a lot of institutional crypto services for them.
Facebook and Meta shareholders resoundingly rejected their Bitcoin treasury.
95% voted no on that.
So we're not going to see Zuckerberg and Meta
scooping up any Bitcoin anytime soon. And we also had the Bitcoin Vegas conference in last week
with a lot of notable headlines out of Senator Loomis, out of JD Vance, Ross Ulbrich was speaking
and opening up donations and auctioning off some goods as well. So there was a lot to get into around the horn.
Peter, I'll toss it to you for kind of first comments as always.
Kind of curious, your macro outlook here this week,
kind of what's jumping out to you,
kind of biggest developments topics here from the past week or this week
ahead.
Yeah, I think the China-U.S. relations is the biggest topic.
Obviously, we had the taco thing.
One of my good friends at FedSpeak had a tweet that went super viral, which was funny, just how the taco thing could cost global markets trillions of dollars.
Definitely went after Trump's ego.
So we'll see what transpires.
There's kind of just a lot of smoke around this.
It's a multipolar world now.
And this is, you know, a relationship that we need.
It needs to be a healthy relationship long term.
So hopefully they can come up with, you know, sustainable trade negotiations.
And that would definitely be bullish for the markets.
Still watching
kind of the 10-year and where rates are. Rates have been pretty stubbornly high relative
expectations coming into the year. So I think that's something to monitor. That's certainly
impacting the housing market, which you referenced. So there are some concerns. And if you listen to
CNBC and kind of most macro talkers, I think people generally feel there's more risk to the downside than there is the upside in the short
term. I'm kind of in that camp, but broadly I think the major change versus where we were,
you know, two months ago is that austerity is out. We're going to continue to kind of print money
and we're going to try to grow our way out of this. And because of that, I think asset prices from a nominal perspective are going
to continue to go up. And it's just so hard to actually put in austerity measures. So there's
a confluence of events, different things going on. But broadly, the trend to me and what's changed
versus kind of the expectation coming in with this administration and Doge and everything else is that it's just going to be more of the same.
And, you know, really the only way out is going to be growth.
So I think if you're an investor or you're trying to allocate capital within your personal portfolio, you need hard assets. You need things that are going to appreciate nominally because my view is that dollars and fiat currencies around the world are just going to continue to be worth less because really the only way out with all the debt that we have is to devalue it and to don't see a way out outside of just kind of more of the same increasing debt
and hopefully shrinking that GDP to debt ratio with more growth.
Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense.
That's in line with my perspective.
I actually have, I think there's a corollary related to the sell and may and go away thesis,
which I want to put a pin in and come back to.
Jeeps, I want to talk to you, reactions to the trade and terror situation.
We've been chatting a bit about this.
How do you feel this is going to play out?
What's your current view?
I'm cautiously optimistic, but also growing a little bit concerned,
I'd say. It's clear that sort of the lower level folks weren't
able to hash this out and that things escalated, maybe to some extent. And now we're at this point
where, you know, Trump's going to meet with Xi here. They're going to determine whether or not
we can find a path forward and what that path forward looks like. But look, like China's trade strategy is just, it shifted,
right?
They have this new negotiator in place.
Hardliner kind of aligns closer with Xi.
He's replacing a more moderate person who was in place before.
And China's done playing defense.
I think they realized that they have a slight upper hand here,
especially when it comes to some critical minerals that the United States needs.
So it's now using its own levering with export controls just to push back.
Like the United States has put export controls on China in the past on things like semiconductors and other important software and things that are needed there.
So now China is playing the same role and they control a lot of the rare earth things that are needed there. So now China is playing the same
role and they control a lot of the rare earths that are needed here. So, you know, China's kind
of blaming Washington here. They now want their, they want their cheese too, right? There's one
big block of cheese here and we need to share nicely. And I'm not sure that the U.S. wants to
share nicely. And I'm not sure China wants to share nicely
either, but both sides are basically saying that, you know, no, no one wants to play ball.
What's that? Yeah. A realistic timeline for resolution here. What do you think?
We find out Friday what's going to happen. Like these two guys get together and it's either we're going to work to get a path forward or things are going to escalate further.
And it could get pretty hairy.
And trade talks are just going to be tougher.
Like we have China has a hardliner negotiator that's in place now.
And the global stakes are high.
Look, like there's disruptions in tech, auto, supply chains.
You're seeing global business
leaders come out and issue concerns like, hey, our business relies on some of these minerals.
Our business relies on some of these materials, et cetera. And it's really starting to hurt
businesses. Now we keep pushing back the tariff deadline, but unclear, unclear. How are you feeling about things, Tyler?
What do you think?
Well, I just,
I don't think we're that close to getting a resolution.
I wish we were.
It's going to play out perhaps across another three to six months.
I'm not sure how much hindrance it is to,
to at least markets in the near term,
barring some wild headlines.
It feels like this back and forth,
this roller coaster is having less and less of an impact.
At least that's how I'm seeing it.
Do you believe in the taco trade?
I am concerned.
I liked the tweet that went viral.
The taco trade puts trillions at risk because it,
Trump does seem like the kind of a guy who can hold a grudge and isn't going
to like,
isn't going to like the fact that people think he chickens out all the time.
At the same time,
clearly like we thought he was going to come out hardline austerity,
and they walked it back because the markets are freaking out too much.
It's kind of the same thing.
Is he really going to take a hardline stance now with similar circumstances?
Too concerned about it just yet.
I want to dig in with Peter to the uranium trade situation.
I haven't been following it super closely.
I've seen that the Trump administration
is broadly more pro-nuclear,
perhaps, than we've had.
But I guess, what are you seeing?
I want to jump on.
I mean, the big headline today
that's driving more good prices
is Meta signing a nuclear deal
with Constellation Energy.
They signed a 20-year agreement with them.
And in general, I think what we need in terms of this AI arms race is power.
And if we would have discovered uranium and nuclear power today, I think we'd be like, oh, this is our solution for clean energy.
That's because of what's transpired in the past, specifically,
a couple of really bad outcomes that have skewed the perception on nuclear.
And I think a rebranding certainly could be helpful here.
But I've been bullish on this for a long time.
The new administration is definitely more pro-nuclear.
And just around the world, it's being adopted in a much bigger fashion
because it's an adopted in a much bigger fashion because
it's an abundant energy source. So I've been playing these stocks for a long time,
not financial advice. Cameco is kind of in the way I've expressed this view. I've owned
uranium. I've owned a little bit of Constellation Energy. I've owned Talon.
And these stocks have been up into the right lately, given the trajectory and kind of the change from a political standpoint that we've seen with nuclear.
So to me, it's one of the solutions for abundant power.
And there's a lot of people out there that are sharper than me and know this industry better than me.
sharper than me and know this industry better than me.
When I talk to oil and gas guys, they normally say, yeah,
nuclear is something that we should be adopting more and more,
which generally there's a bias towards whatever industry you're in.
So I'm hopeful we see more of this.
Friedberg's been a prominent nuclear supporter on the All In podcast.
He had this concept of rebranding it,
elemental power with solar and nuclear specifically, which makes a lot of sense.
So, yeah, there's a variety of podcasts out there that if you want to listen to are pretty bullish on uranium and new.
Definitely complicated because there's a variety of things that have to go right.
And I think the biggest downside,
we used uranium and get rid of that. That's, again, a little bit over my head. I'm trying to learn as much as I can, but it's good to see this administration at least raise it. And it
seems like it'd be a big solution for power and AI. So it's done well from an asset appreciation
in terms of the companies associated with it
uranium itself and we'll see what happens going forward yeah it seems like a trade is going to
continue up and to the right and pretty simple ai's ai growth is basically limited to power
growth i think it's as simple as that so if we have to you can even take a further step back
and this is really just like high level and we don't have to go too much down the rabbit hole but like really all
value in the world is energy um that's that's the number one driver human beings energy uh power to
supply a lot of different things i mean you can really base down to like what is valued and
correlate with energy so So especially with AI,
there's a new paradigm that we're going to be in.
We need a more sustainable solution long-term.
And yeah, I really hope that we embrace nuclear
because from what I understand,
the trade-offs of nuclear are much, much better,
especially relative to something like coal,
which there's this big push towards the environment
and everything else. And there's still countries, especially like coal, which there's this big push towards the environment and everything else.
And there's still countries, especially like China, which are using a ton of coal, which
is horrible for the environment.
Yep.
It's more environment friendly.
And hey, bringing this back to crypto, we might be able to be trading your Enem on chain
here soon.
I think we talked about that a couple of weeks back on the show.
Maybe pivoting us back to crypto here.
Deesme, I'll toss it to you
i don't think you you went to bitcoin vegas but i am curious were you following did anything jump
out to you any of the jd vance keynotes ross olbrick uh did you have any takeaways kind of
perhaps watching far on bitcoin vegas this past week? Nothing crazy.
I just saw a bunch of puppet stuff on the timeline,
probably because I follow a bunch of puppets,
but I didn't watch any of the talks,
or I didn't really pay much attention to what went on.
Seems like the market hasn't moved very much, if anything, or ordinals and runes down rather than up.
So I don't know.
The Ross Ulbricht stuff, I don't really have a take on it.
Getting donated a bunch of money,
and surely he made a bunch of OGs,
a bunch of money before he went to prison.
So I don't really have any hard takes on any of it.
No worries.
I had some friends who were there.
They had a good time.
But I don't know if I have any of it. No worries. I had some friends who were there. They had a good time. But I don't know if
I have any meaningful takeaways.
Feels like another conference that was dominated
by suits
over hoodies, again, which is kind of
a growing theme in these crypto
conferences. I think
the Vance keynote was a big one.
Loomis, I think what stood out there was she mentioned
that this Bitcoin Act, which is the act where the
U.S. would actually start buying Bitcoin to get to 5% within a five-year time horizon is going to go to Congress, I believe, this week.
I haven't seen it mentioned yet.
So that was one of my takeaways.
Gene, I'm curious if you were following along, if much stood out to you.
Just following along loosely.
I think it's great to see three conferences align um
a couple things that i took away from it that i'd heard were that um it was a very retail driven
conference whereas a lot of the other conferences are um we're telling institutional but it's like
industry players more or less are showing up. This one, you know, hearing interviews from walking around,
firemen, policemen, your everyday person was attending this conference.
And it's just part of their ethos alliance with Bitcoin.
So that's really cool.
Some people are predicting this could end up becoming
one of the biggest crypto conferences, which sounds great.
And it's in Vegas too.
So it's a great little vacation.
Everyone saw something this morning, you know, it's clear the Trump family and the administration
is heavily aligning to Bitcoin, to crypto. You're seeing innovative products like this
come out. But yeah, it sounded like the Trump family came and said, I think it was on CNBC today, that they're very much aligned to Bitcoin and crypto because they run banked.
And they think that there's a better way to do it.
So it's interesting to see the motivations behind a lot of it.
Yeah, I mean, that's a pretty core foundational thesis for getting into crypto.
So I think one that resonates with folks who've been around for a while.
I was trying to find that.
I wasn't able to find that clip.
But some bullish headlines for sure.
I'm seeing growing concern over the Bitcoin treasury companies.
And they're sprouting up on a weekly basis.
Today, I think I had four headlines in the newsletter
regarding companies either adding to their corporate treasury Bitcoin
or new ones being spun up.
There's a new $1.5 billion corporate vehicle spinning up out of Hong Kong.
It's pretty sizable.
I think that would be enough to put them in the top 10, top 20.
And then we're starting to see, like Amanda said this morning,
two of the takeaways from Bitcoin Vegas were the corporate treasuries
and then this new Bitcoin financialization.
So Bitcoin lending, this product that Joe Consorti tweeted about yesterday
and has gone viral, we can see it, 800,000 views already in a day where you can tap the equity
from your home to buy Bitcoin,
which isn't far off from what,
let's say they were told everyone to mortgage their home,
take a second mortgage to buy Bitcoin last cycle,
I think was a resounding one.
But I think my question here is like,
are these top signs or close to the top signs?
Should we be concerned about this leverage?
Jesus, maybe I'll toss it to you and anyone else who wants to weigh in.
I don't know.
After we top, there's going to be some.
These certainly look like them
uh these are i don't know people like get really crazy with financialization of things i think and
this is the first of some really crazy things you're going to start to see with people wanting
to use bitcoin for the you know i think if, if you go back to like when we first started
this show, Tyler, we had three really big catalysts for Bitcoin.
We had institutions and corporates coming in.
They're here.
They are hitting the buy button really hard.
I did not have creative financial engineering on that list.
And we're starting to see it now.
I just don't know anyone that's really chomping at the bits for this product.
But maybe they're out there.
Well, I see both sides of this one because I feel like if you want Bitcoin to become more mainstream, become more of a financial asset, it would make sense to build financial protocols financialization on top of it
and being able to take loans against your bitcoin i guess it makes inherent to me i understand that's
risk leverage but isn't that also progress so i guess my understanding of this product was that
you could use your home equity to purchase bitcoin at like a lower LTV. Is that right?
I'm speaking more broadly about Bitcoin lending here in general,
but this particular product I haven't had a chance to dig into,
but let's dig into it.
So the idea here,
you're not taking out like a mortgage against your home,
but you're somehow,
is it the equity?
You're converting the equity you have in your home,
the delta between whatever the market value of your home
and the equity minus most people who have a loan,
and you're converting that into Bitcoin.
Yeah, and they'll give you about, I think it's like 20% on it.
That seems like something that could go wildly wrong.
Housing prices, as you referenced,
that's the majority of wealth that Americans have is in their homes.
They're all everyone for the most part, I should say everyone, 95 percent plus are levered with their homes.
And we're going to turn these assets that have been going up nominally and maybe real estate continues to go up.
real estate continues to go up, but we did see what happened in 2008. And then we're going to
But we did see what happened in 2008.
lever that, or we're going to take that equity and put it into Bitcoin and pay a rate for it.
That to me is, but it's definitely concerning. And I do think to your previous question, Tyler,
if and when we enter a bear market, it's going to be nasty.
I think it's inevitable that we'll have a bear market in crypto again. It's going to be brutal
given all the leverage that's out there now in these products. I think that that could be a
really, really bad sign. Obviously, strategy is in a different position given how
they've structured everything. But a lot of these copycats, and I haven't done all the
research and due diligence here, but from what I've read and listened to with other podcasts
and research, they're not in the same position where they could be for sellers. And that to me
is super scary, especially when you combine it with things like this and other leverage that people will inevitably get with Bitcoin. So I hope that that's not what plays out, but it feels
it's great on the way up, but it could be way more painful on the way down. There's a reason
they say escalator up, elevator down. So I'm trying to, because I do Mystic,
I think we've seen a really big shift
with this administration
and getting Gensler out of the SEC.
I'm hopeful that we see really big innovation in crypto.
I thought FOMAR was excellent today,
comparing Ethereum to a trust commodity.
So there's a lot of positive factors,
but human beings repeat history.
We get greedy, we get leverage, and normally it ends in a bad way.
And this product in particular, I think, is innovative, but certainly outside.
Yeah.
To add to that, this is also just like a really niche product.
I can't see too many people wanting to go after this or use this, but it's creative at the end of the day.
And I think it's, like I said, the day and i think it's like i said the first of
many you're going to see like this unchecked basically just tapping liquidity in different
places to purchase bitcoin i just can't imagine that this becomes a gargantuan product that banks
are selling and whatnot i think that's fair right i think it's somewhat pitched for folks who really
want to operate on a bitcoin standard right so bitcoin
standard is instead of holding cash you you hold as little cash as possible you just hold you
denominate in bitcoin it would make sense for that type of person to also perhaps want to look to the
equity in their home i'm not pitching this product i'm just saying i i see that logic this discussion
makes me think so who are the net buyers that are left, right? Because we've had the institutions coming in. We've got the ETFs now.
Corporations lining up to fill their treasuries.
I guess we haven't really had the sovereign wealth states,
the sovereign wealth funds and nation states come in yet.
So I guess that's one.
I guess the optimist in me still is that we don't really have the 401k TWAP
really coming in yet.
So I think there are buyer pools left, but I also see the,
if we are to top soon off of these treasuries, Bitcoin pulls back.
I think it would be somewhat obvious in hindsight. So I tend to agree there.
I want to come back to one of the opening questions we had in the opening monologue
is, are we selling in May and going away? Dees, maybe I'll toss this one to you. This is kind of
like the cardinal rule of investing across more than just crypto stocks as well. We typically see
local peaks in May and then quiet summers. Do you think this time is different?
in the quiet summers, do you think this time is different?
Yeah, it's funny you say that.
I was going through some of my favorite times in crypto track
on the last eight years of what were the craziest months or quarters.
And two of my top five were actually August 2021
and then August 2020 before that and you know maybe that's
because the pandemic and things were different but um i i've sold a little bit in may i've sold
enough where i could go away all summer and not sell anymore and be extremely comfortable um but
i'm not taking like massive size off the board um i know last august actually we had that like like the japanese
trade fud where like the markets dipped really hard on like the first or second week of us yes
thinking like we need to be buying right now like this is silly like what's going on and um you know
i i don't think you have to sell everything but but we had a nice rally in May compared to where we were in April.
And if you need to take some lifestyle off the table,
because of that,
nobody can claim you or say anything bad about it.
But I'm not taking off a big stack or anything.
I'm pretty much still heavily allocated.
Very interesting.
So these things, maybe we buck the trend
or at least hold through it.
Peter, curious for your thoughts.
Yeah, just trying to keep, you know, kind of a long-term asset allocation strategy.
I'm really trying to be disciplined around that.
I feel great about how I'm positioned overall right now.
It's been obviously a good stretch here.
I do think there's a bit more downside in the equities market, and there's certainly a lot of risks out there.
It could apply to crypto as well,
but definitely some major upsides.
And I think,
especially with Bitcoin,
you know,
we're somewhere in the range of like 15% of the gold market cap,
10 to 15%,
depending on what you rate the gold market cap as a whole.
And I just think it's inevitable that those will continue to converge.
And I think gold is looking quite good here, too, given just what we're seeing with governments
and central banks around the world have to continue to inject liquidity, given the levels
of debt that we have, the space race and everything else.
So going back to what we talked about initially from a macro standpoint,
I mean, I want to hold hard assets.
So Bitcoin is gold 2.0 and gold looks good to me.
And I just think over time, Bitcoin will continue to eat into that ratio of 12% right now.
I think it'll continue to get higher and higher and ultimately will be worth
more than gold. So from an asset allocation standpoint,
I want to make sure I'm positioned.
Certainly want to protect lifestyle as an entrepreneur and with a family,
but I feel really good about those. And then the more speculative stuff.
I really liked FOMO hour. I think ETH is looking strong.
Mando made a lot of really good points.
I do think it's somewhere between the world computer, energy, digital oil, electricity, whatever you want to say.
And then I hadn't heard the trust commodity aspect as much.
And I think that's a really strong narrative.
So still trustee.
And Nick DeMino has been a big ETH bull and, um, still my
allocation there and with the punk. So I think it's a, an interesting asset and then hypes look
good. Fart coins look good and, um, not as performed as well recently. Uh, kind of the
things we've been touting have done reasonably well. Um, so I'm not trying to make too many
changes. Uh, just trying to be cognizant of the asset allocation that I've set out to have.
And of course, we'll rebalance kind of every quarter as things go.
A very sensible approach.
This hype chart does not look like one to sell and may go away.
At least to me.
We got the Binance US listing.
We haven't mentioned that.
Felt kind of interesting to me that it got listed on Binance US
before any other major centralized exchange.
Part of my first gut reaction to that was hype is for most Americans
who can't take a flight to Mexico, a restricted asset they can't buy.
So it was interesting that Binance chose to put it on Binance US
before any other American exchange listed it.
Yeah, there's still some fairly significant barriers to buying this.
No one cares?
Yeah, about $5.99 and 15 seconds away from getting to Mexico
and then figuring it out.
But I think on a broader scale, right, there's folks who are just not going to ever do that.
For sure.
Which is another reason why those of us who may have an advantage in a stupid way.
in a stupid way.
I don't know.
It seems silly to me
that so many people let a little bit
of friction prevent them
from allocating capital to something
with significant upside. And it reminds me
that we can just
allocate the capital ahead of them.
That's what we've done.
I thought it was...
Perps are one of the great financial revolutions,
right? I think it was... hold, even like an Apple or an Amazon in a perpetual way. I think it's brilliant. And I
think the administration is likely to make it more clear. And I think for sure, Hyperliquid,
one big catalyst for them would be being legal here in the US. I know, Jeeves, we've talked a
lot about that. And that being one of the major risks is that these founders are doxed Americans.
And while you can see the red thing that you know, these founders are doxed Americans. And while you, you know,
can see the red thing that you're accessing these products from a restricted jurisdiction,
quite a few Americans are going around that to access and use hyperliquid. So
I do think that there's still some upside here. There's certainly still some of the same risks,
but hopefully we'll see perpetuals in other markets. Because I do think that's one of the major things that crypto has popularized as perpetuals. There's not a lot that
we've done. Mostly has been gambling and kind of the finance trading innovations in crypto,
digital gold 2.0. There haven't been like these broad use cases that have been super helpful to
the rest of the world yet.
Hopefully stable coins and some of these other things will be that. But Perpetual certainly, I think, is one huge value add to society that crypto has made prominent.
Yeah, I need to go back and look.
Perpster tried in the past pre-crypto and didn't end up working out.
I can't remember exactly why.
And then options obviously took you know took most of
that market i i've actually talked with some teams building some innovative per products
jennings you'd like this perps on sports betting yeah like live no it's like live live perps i
could 10x my bet and then based off like point spread differentials like i can get blown out
based off of that that's what uh points bet initially set up was basically you know you would win more
if your team covered by more than what you initially bet and you lose more if they lost
by more than the spread um yeah it's interesting in sports for sure yeah a lot a lot of untapped
markets it's one of the beauties of crypto is we're able to either get to markets faster, create markets
that didn't exist before, or like
Jennings is saying, use innovative products like
perps and apply them
at scale.
It is very interesting.
The hype team clearly
has a winner here.
People are very ready to bet on them.
They get there to unlock new products
and or verticals.
And the price action is pretty hard to deny at this point.
Even the Deez's polls showed that it wasn't a consensus trade.
It felt like everyone on crypto Twitter was piling in at the top.
We got a 20% pullback and it's already the fastest horse off the bottom.
So undeniable strength here from Hype.
I want to talk about ETH though here. We don't talk about ETH a ton on the bottom. So undeniable strength here from hype. I want to talk about ETH though here. We
don't talk about ETH a ton on the show. I certainly have shared some bearish opinions myself, perhaps
the loudest on this show over the previous months and the price action has been rough.
We had Joe Lubin on FOMO Hour this morning talking about the Sharplink deal, then pioneering, really becoming the first major player to build an ETH corporate treasury, his views on Ethereum as the global computer and that now we're finally ready for it to take place.
Also, some fairly bearish commentary on just the global financial system and why Ethereum is a good alternative.
Curious if you guys listen to that, any reactions?
Have you changed your perspective on ETH or how you might be looking at this?
And this also comes, we mentioned at the beginning of the show,
as the Ethereum Foundation is clearly pivoting and changing the message.
Whether or not this has been happening behind the scenes for a while, Joe alluded to that it has. This has been kind of the talk for
about a year now. It feels like it's more public now and people are starting to finally realize.
And it feels like they're really getting back to basics. Three goals, scale to L1, scale to L2,
improve the user experience. And what else do you want, right? Other than perhaps more just
boots on the ground business development,
which I think is what the Solana leadership perhaps has an edge on right now
on Ethereum is getting teams and apps to Solana and promoting them.
I think Solana still has a strong advantage over it.
And I guess that's still missing from this list.
But I'm curious if folks have reactions to either.
I think, Peter, you shared something.
Jeeves, did you have any
no i think it's great they're listening to what maybe what people want changing their
strategy around it's needed like it's really clear that eath lost favor over the past year or so
for these other faster horses and that they needed to do something.
If they can execute on it,
if they can actually do something and maybe regain mindshare
and start to move forward,
I think that'd be awesome.
I think Mando is really clever
when it comes to trading
and clearly sees the narrative shifting here.
I'm not...
I don't think I'm as red-pilled on ETH the asset over time, but from a trading
standpoint, it could be a great trade. I just don't see how accumulation to ETH and value
accrual to ETH happens over time unless we start to see the masses pile in and start using that
network. People are starting to value L1s in a number of different ways,
whether it's REV or RSOV.
And those methods are just going to become
more and more creative.
These chains are now products
and they have clear revenue streams,
clear usage, the whole nine.
And so I think unless ETH can pick up those metrics,
it's going to be a tough road in the long term.
But short term, great trade.
Can you mind share?
Maybe.
I feel like I agree with you
that most L1s and crypto products
are starting to be more valued on that.
I think there are a handful of exceptions,
and I think Ethereum could be one
that escapes just being value
based purely on some of those key metrics.
I think one thing the data is showing us,
and I didn't even realize this until I looked today,
is the ETF inflows through the ETH.
ETFs have been huge.
$350 million this week, 11 straight green sessions.
And folks, that's against the tide.
So Bitcoin flipped red the past three sessions.
And then when you look at it on a market cap basis,
it's actually a bigger deal, right?
300 million is the equivalent of 2.1 billion
into the Bitcoin ETFs on a percentage basis.
Similar to the Sharplink deal.
Sharplink's going to put 1 billion in.
That's equivalent to 7 billion.
So on a relative basis,
these are more meaningful dollars.
Yeah.
I mean, like I said,
it could be a good trade.
Could be a lot of money flowing in.
I think it's just over time,
there's going to be more scrutiny
outside of just narrative.
And I think you need users.
You need things built there over time
on ETH L1 that people want. Like you need effectively, you need things built there over time on ETH L1 that people want.
Like you need effectively, you need ETH burned for it to make sense over time.
You need that usage.
And with layer twos out there, I don't know if you guys saw some of the numbers that came out earlier this year,
but it's pretty damning like what L2 is effectively ended up doing to mainnet when it comes to ETH burn.
And the amount of usage that we'd need
to catch up to that is
astronomical by today's numbers.
So I think it's great trade,
but I think it's
just going to be hard for ETH to hold up
over time, unless
they can really gain some traction, mind sure.
Need some core apps.
Need more usage on the Ethereum blockchain.
I totally agree with those points.
From an investment standpoint,
if you think ETH is a good trade here,
are you buying ETH?
Are you buying ETH betas?
And if you're in the betas camp,
what are the best betas?
Are you looking at memes?
Are you looking at DeFi? Are you looking at memes? Are you looking at DeFi?
Are you looking at NFTs?
Yeah.
One thing I just want to add to that trade, Tyler,
is I think the ETH trade is coming in a lot
because of the new staking rules.
So I think because of staking and restaking,
we're starting to see a lot of ETH flows move in,
especially on ETFs with people anticipating
they're going to be passing on that staking yield soon. So there's effectively now a dividend associated to it. So it's easier
for Trad5 to digest that. I think that's a really big deal. And I think if you look for the
narratives, what's the easy pitch to get institution buyers, fund buyers, and individuals that
with the staking yield is interesting.
And I think there will be some demand for that,
especially if it's first to market.
If it comes along with Solana, maybe that muddies it a little bit.
But agree, that's just on the upside.
D's yield at SBX as ETH beta.
Is that
your top pick?
It's not one I'm
actually allocated to. I think I'm
still holding MOG, which is probably
looking at the charts, not
as strong. But in terms of
memes, that feels like one of the best
that Pepe.
But SBX looks a little
stronger than Pepe, and I think you can argue has significantly more upside.
Also, two of our sharp friends are allocating heavily to it,
which is always an interesting sign.
I think if you're looking at more of the DeFi stuff,
let's just go back to Aave.
It's like one of the more interesting ones for me.
Because it's one of like the only few I use
that feels like it has a good chart.
You know, I don't think the Uniswap chart
looks nearly as good.
But I'm not allocating to ETH, DeFi or anything.
I'm still holding the Bitcoin hype barbell
with a sprinkling of fart coin and other memes in there.
I'm an Aave guy.
I'm still using avi um i think
d5 is probably the most likely short-term protocol to get even more traction um obviously there's
smeltos you could use as well but um there are some incentives for staking avi uh specifically
around uh stake go um so to me that that's at least one positive thing here.
And, you know, the TVL on Aave continues to go up.
Obviously, it's been going up.
So that's a big part of it.
But I do think that the trust and decentralization around Ethereum
could be a way that it wins at a bigger way within DeFi.
But certainly you can argue against that as well
um but yeah uh obvious probably i was gonna bring that up is is maybe the the most interesting way
to play eth right now if you wanted to trade it um you certainly could play the memes i just i
don't know if the memes are gonna have as much traction as kind of the memes have on solana
um if you wanted to play beta um the whole market. But could easily be wrong
on that. I've never been a big ETH
meme guy, so
I certainly could be wrong. But I do
like what Uniswap's doing. Not as
bullish on the chart, obviously, but Aave
I think is another protocol that
could gain more and more traction over
time.
Tyler, if you go to DeFi Lama, did you see the
new updated revenue stuff that they're doing?
I haven't seen it.
I'll try to pull it up.
It's pretty neat.
Yeah, so they're bringing up revenue, and then they're also defining the determination of revenue.
Like Jennings is saying, you have on the ETH side of the house, you have sort of just ETH mainnet,
but then also looking at stuff like Aerodrome crushes it when it comes to fees.
Crushes.
Some of the other trading bots.
And then, yeah, Aave.
Aave's right up there with the rest of them.
So there's some pretty good stuff.
It's a great way, I think, to look at different tokens maybe that seem interesting to folks.
Lido's up there. Aave's up there, Uniswap's up there.
The funny thing, though, is if you start to look at the top 10,
the majority of these are on Solana.
Indeed.
And trading apps, wallets, which is…
Look at Athena, too.
That's another really cool product.
We haven't talked enough about Athena, probably,
on the show.
Guy's an incredible founder. What they've been able to accomplish
with USD is remarkable.
Yeah, I mean, I think we'll see
hopefully fundamentals
went out over time
more in crypto. Obviously, fundamentals have been
a net negative, I would say, in crypto over the last couple of cycles.
Hopefully in the future, as more and more people come on chain and protocols create real value for society, fundamentals matter more.
So I do like this is a really good call out of Jeeps.
Short term, that might not be the case.
People still love to speculate and gamble.
And when you have numbers to tie to protocols,
oftentimes crypto assets are overvalued.
So it's a net negative,
but hopefully over time it becomes positive.
Definitely, yeah.
And go back to Athena. I feel like it's quiet
because the leverage markets are pretty quiet.
But when we get back into just pure bull mode, you know, those rates go from 7.5 to 20 or higher, right?
They get really ridiculous.
And that's when people really start to look at protocols like that.
So, yeah, I mean, just one of the most creative products we've seen in a long time.
Strong yield.
Very enticing.
Strong yield.
I'm not as conversational as I'm just not a user.
So I'll have to get more info from you all.
I will take one second to pump my own bag.
I do think punks as levered ETH are an interesting beta.
If you want ETH exposure, if you're bullish ETH.
Then I ran
a poll this morning
to see how folks
thought CryptoPunks would perform against hype
on the back of
Easy and Notable Trader in the space and
Content Creator who sold his punk to
throw it all in the hype.
I thought,
so we ended up with the results were 60% hype,
40% CryptoPunk.
I thought the folks would be a little more
leaned to the hype side.
This is actually a little bit closer than I thought
it would be. Deez, what's your take?
In terms
of my own bags, I have more
hype that I'm willing to sell
than I have punks in
USD value that I'm willing to sell. So have punks and usd value that i'm willing to sell so
i guess my vote would be hype on that one um or at least that's my vote with my wallet
i think it's probably pretty close but um i think hype is just the more volatile bet there
so you're gonna have i think more upside and downside with hype um whereas i think punks
are a little bit more stable of a bet.
And I think punks are probably maybe closer to ETH beta than hype itself.
Jeeps, putting you on the spot.
I don't know, Tyler.
You know, punks are...
Hype's like a highly traded asset.
It's something that people are
sort of moving in and out of.
It's a trade, right?
And it's performed really, really well
over the past...
What's it, like, month?
Month and a half?
How long have we been out from the lows?
About that?
Like, first week of April?
First week of April? Here's the thing about punks punk
punks right you're asking the question of like is it a you know store value it's also as we go back
to that thing it's um it's that it's that native flex it's that um sort of like wealth creation
not wealth creation what's the right word here um It's like, as people get wealthier in
the space, punks become an even more desired product, right? People feel, I think we're in
this weird point right now where there's just so much uncertainty and people don't feel rich again.
They sort of feel in the middle, like they don't feel poor like they did months ago.
They don't feel poor like they did months ago, where they're looking to buy a punk or some other assets.
Punks are still the VPFP.
They are still the thing within crypto that I think a lot of people desire.
So I think the way I look at punks is I'm bullish crypto.
I'm bullish a lot of wealth creation in the space.
And through that, I think that punks still remain a highly desired asset over time.
I think it just depends on the timeline, whether it's a month, two months, 10 months, 10 years.
How do you feel about it?
Well, I feel like holding ETH was unsexy there for a while
and there was just so much negative
stigma
around ETH that I think it dragged down punks for a bit
I think in the scenario where ETH is cool again
make ETH great again
we go mega mode
ETH goes back to 4000
punks shoot to 250k straight
I think that hopefully I'm back back to 4,000. Punk shoots 250k straight.
I think that... I think we lost.
Hopefully I'm back.
I was laying out that
in this scenario...
ETH goes mega mode.
ETH runs to 4k.
I think punks go to 60 and
Punk 4 is 250k in a heartbeat.
Which feels like a realistic scenario
over the course of 2025.
So then,
your betting is hype going to go
more than 2x?
I think punks have higher than 2x upside.
I think hype probably does too.
It's tough. It is a tough opportunity cost.
I think in an ideal world, you get a little bit of both.
I like both.
How long do you think until I could buy punks with my home equity?
Within a year.
Let's get our punk strategy out first.
We still haven't seen punk strategy.
Maybe Lubin's cooking us up.
They've been a great store of value.
They've been incredible.
Eve's nominated.
Yeah.
I think it's very non-zero we get a punk strategy in the next year, too. Yeah. I think it's very non-zero. We get a punk strategy in the next year, too.
Yeah.
I did feel bad for Easy this morning.
Right?
He got OTC real fast.
This is his own fault.
He didn't ask anybody.
He just listed it.
Got his engagement and paid for it.
Yeah.
Got a sale.
He's probably up more in hype, right?
If he yeeted that all into hype
for uh folks who may not follow this along easy hyped down since he did it
oh really i mean if he yeeted into hype it was like 38 i think when he did it
if you look at like the hype five minute chart it's at new lows uh over the last two hours
it's been down only um which is why i was like yeah it's time to sell some
like half jokingly any any time a bodago makes a big move in your bag you gotta trim some that's
just part of the rules no no offense to easier clemente that's just the way we play it out here
that is one of the new cardinal rules well before we end the show folks we got some breaking news
we gotta quickly react to uh this is the code Bessie letter is tweeting us.
I have not had a chance to verify this.
President Trump set to launch a branded crypto wallet and trading application.
Trump will reportedly encourage his supporters to purchase his meme coin Trump and other crypto assets.
You'd have to come to my house with a gun to force me to download a Trump wallet.
have to come to my house with a gun to force me to download a trump wallet i'd rather eat trump
steaks at trump university than fucking download a trump wallet and carry any amount of money in
that thing we're seeing a bit of a market reaction trump coin up about four percent
on the news there's a lot to unpack here i think we'll have some more measured takes
after we've seen the full story.
This feels maybe a bit too much.
Not sure we need the Trump crypto wallet in trading application.
Got to keep the grips going.
Got to keep just doubling down on the grip.
Say what you want about Trump, whatever, the pros and cons.
We've brought up the pros, brought up some of the cons.
I certainly see some good and some bad.
The grifting, though, is undeniable.
I mean, if you're a hater of Trump, that's one thing you can always point to is the Trump
gripped.
And that's well before he was in politics and the president.
He loves to slap his name on things and gripped.
It's a feature, not a bug yeah you know
he's great at it too gotta give him i mean he's the king i mean for sure shoots a shot
you know what comes along with the brand of crypto wall in a trading application down the road
another token an exchange i think this this lays the path for oh yeah
more tokens
more
more Trump
this is by far
like the most
bearish thing
we have going on
with the Trump family
like
I just
I can't stand it
it's kind of
it's harder to paint
it's harder to paint
the bull picture
the bull case
it's the press of the US
screaming at everyone
to buy crypto
at his own personal benefit that's the that of the U.S. screaming at everyone to buy crypto, but at his own personal benefit.
That's the asterisk.
And that's why the Dems hate it so much.
And they likely will continue to.
So we'll continue to report on this.
Folks, I think we went around the horn on the topics for today.
Tight show.
But that's going to be it. That will be our show.
I want to thank our listeners. As always, I want to thank my co-hosts for joining us here today on Tuesday. We will be back next Tuesday at 12 p.m. Eastern. Until then, have a great week.
Talk to you soon. Bye. See you guys. Thank you.
