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UNDER EXPOSED: RUGGED EDITION
Recorded: June 10, 2025 Duration: 0:44:10Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is witnessing a resurgence with the return of ICOs, significant growth in stablecoin adoption, and bullish trends in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Innovations in DeFi and positive regulatory developments are further fueling optimism, while successful token launches like Plasma highlight the increasing demand for crypto assets.
Full Transcription
Music Thank you. all right mic check mic check we back? Are we rugged?
Tyler, Peter, can you hear me?
Can you guys talk?
Can you hear us, Diz?
Yeah, I can hear you.
You guys can hear me, right?
Yeah, you sound good.
Not sure what happened. We had StreamYard completely shit the bed
very early on
and then twitter permanently muted tyler and we all thought we were talking for multiple minutes
and it turned out we were muted so we're back we're not gonna rehash the first 15 minutes um
but i'm gonna let tyler take back over here and uh we'll probably just keep this going for a half
hour and try to keep it quick yeah title show title show, folks. We went over a little bit of the broader macro.
I think we can just dial in to the crypto component here.
I saw a few interesting tweets.
So one, my beloved M2 Bitcoin chart.
The Bitcoin pricing with the set with global N2 supply looking really good. And it
looks like we might go to 120K this week or like the next two weeks. I thought that was pretty
notable. Set up right now. So intern had a good tweet. I'm going to read it. State of the crypto
market. ICOs are back. Apps are generating revenue. Circle I going parabolic.
Bitcoin all-time high. Bitcoin growth with no end in sight.
Bitcoin accumulation vehicles popping up left and right.
We're winning is how he is.
And I mean, that feels pretty spot on, right?
Like, I feel like sometimes we get caught up in the details of the day-to-day and like spotlight to some of the headlines.
An incredible list.
And I think those are all hallmarks of a pretty raging bull market.
So I'm feeling pretty dang into this summer.
But Peter, I guess I'll throw it to you.
How are you feeling just about broader crypto,
like near term, like into this summer?
Yeah, it definitely feels really good right now.
I think stablecoin adoption continues to go up.
Obviously, what we're seeing with the Circle IPO
is very encouraging.
And I think we'll see a lot of other
stablecoin projects and investments
really pay off,
you know, through the rest of this year
and through this administration.
So that's a huge tailwind.
Bitcoin is being adopted as digital gold
more and more by institutions.
Obviously, you have all these
strategy copycats coming in which is
very good in the short term for price action um and then you're getting positive regulation
um on the defy side with this sec which has got eth bulls uh excited so yeah the other thing i'd
point out uh that is encouraging to me and maybe this is a bit of a bias because it's been broadly good for my bags,
but most things that are performing well now,
I would say have the best fundamentals.
Obviously, you know, like a Fartcoin meme
is doing decently well,
but broadly, like the big winners right now
are Bitcoin, ETH, hype.
Some of the DeFi tokens are starting to do really well.
It seems like the market is valuing fundamentals a bit more than it has
in the past, which at least to me is a good sign.
I'd be curious to see if you guys agree on that though.
Um, and maybe that's just a bias, but like uni's up big today, um, on the news, um, you
seeing Aave perform well, uh, that to me is hopeful, uh, or at least I'm hopeful that
that's what we kind of see long-term is that the market matures and like it rewards real value creation.
I'm definitely seeing a lot of that as well, but I'm also seeing the few diehard like meme cults doing extremely well too.
So it's hard to point out like, is it just value or is there also um cults doing well i think as we get more clear
regulation like the the value stuff just becomes a better buy because you now have a lot more
clarity into what we can and can't be uh doing with some of these tokens so i'm not actually
exposed to like any of the defy stuff myself but i always look at the avi chart is like my barometer for how well defy is doing in general and it looks pretty good just tapped uh 316 and
then dropped a little bit down to 303 but i'm always looking at the uh fart coin and spx charts
to to see how hard cults are doing and spx looks like it's about to make a new all-time high and
i know we talked about it a couple other chats but the but the A on NFTs and shit that are tied to them
have been running too.
It's just nice to see some of the broader strong beta
continually outperform the underlying Bitcoin or ETH tokens.
I don't know, I feel like every week,
like you said, Tyler, we only have a couple percent,
but we feel euphoric.
I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that Hype's up, what,
25% since the last show.
Some of these memes are up.
SPX is up like 50%.
I think Fartcoin is actually close to like, it's up like, what, 10%, 20%.
So it's not up nearly as much.
But a lot of the stuff that we have bigger bags of
that is beta to the underlying tokens
is vastly outperforming the underlying tokens recently,
which is nice.
Yeah, I think that's a big...
It's why we hold the riskier token.
Because even Mog was having a nice run yesterday too.
Still has a way to go to all-time high,
but it had a nice day.
I think a couple of things are happening. So I think Peter is right. I think there is
some level of the flight fundamentals. And I think people want to invest in crypto protocols
with real revenue. They're buying more than just pure vapor.
I don't think that means that the meme market is going to zero.
And we're seeing that with FarCoin's big rally.
It's only up 10% off the week, but it's local lows.
So that's probably why we're feeling good.
And SBX, I'm seeing it at $1.50.
So it is five to seven high.
It's on an incredible run along with Uniswap and Aave,
which are also having nice weeks.
I'm really about this E-thread now.
We got the news out of the SEC.
I don't know if it's news necessarily,
but Paul Atkins basically said,
we're giving the green light to DeFi. We're
not going to overly regulate it. And one of the immediate impacts is we know these ETH ETFs,
these staking ETFs are coming. They might be coming soon. So if that was the kind of official
green light for the ETH staking ETF, is that the next big catalyst? I'm talking about a bit on FOMO hour,
but Peter Deason, I'm curious
for your thoughts. If those go through,
does that change your near-term
forecast for ETH?
And what might be
your targets, or how do you think that would play
out?
ETH is the definition of an underwater
beach ball when you look at the ETH Bitcoin
chart. It's been an underwater for three years.
So I do think with a little bit of positive regulation,
you wouldn't be surprised to see at least, I don't know, 0.04, 0.05.
I think we talked about this a show or two ago.
And I was just throwing out random targets
because at one point it was was 55 ETH for one Bitcoin
and I was just sitting here like, that seems ridiculous.
It was under the .02 mark and that actually ended up
being right around the bottom and of course I did not make any sizable swaps.
But I wouldn't be surprised if you saw Ethereum
double versus Bitcoin under bullish regulations.
And if you want to get really bowled up,
maybe like a 3.5x versus Bitcoin to the top of the old range high.
If you just want to look at a chart and draw a line somewhere.
I just tweeted my ETH Bitcoin chart with the two main lines.
And yeah, I think now is a good time to look at ethan if you're
under allocated to to maybe bet a little bit um and i i don't think i've said that in a long time
same and there's going to be more opportunities with uh defy too i mean with this regulation i
think we're going to see cooler cooler products and. And ETH is still the winner there. Salon obviously had a lot of momentum in 24 and in to start this year.
And obviously, there's some cool things going on.
But that's really helpful to ETH.
And then one confirmation tweet of stablecoin market cap at $250 billion, up 90% this year,
and a new all-time high.
Heather is the top buyer of U.S. Treasuries.
Regulatory clarity is near. To me, that's's huge we've talked about that a ton on the show like it makes so much sense
given the situation we have with our fiscal uh you know the mountain of debt we have it's great
to have buyers especially kind of how we've shaken up the world. We need buyers and stable coins are a great buyer of treasuries.
So that's incredible.
And there's more and more of these consumer apps coming out,
which to me is going to help adoption even more.
So there's aligned incentives with our government to have this grow.
And I think that probably is the biggest tailwind to ETH,
if they can win in that regard.
And obviously the staking ETFs I think would be an amazing short-term pop.
So I'm more bowled up than I've ever been on ETH.
The only time before I was just like basically trusting Nick, I guess,
and some other people just like it's done so badly
and it's performed so poorly relative to Bitcoin and other assets.
But yeah, you've had
some conviction it's paid off in the short term and i definitely think to me there's a lot of
upside um at least in the short term and then if they can create a lot of enterprise value from
stable coins um that would probably be the biggest bull case for the whole industry
i mean speaking ofcoins, did we mention
Plasma yet, Tyler?
That sold out instantly.
I don't know if Tyler got rugged, but the
demand for that was pretty
impressive. I saw not much
talk about it on the timeline until
the day before or the morning before.
And it felt like one of those things where people were not talking about it because they timeline until like the day before or the morning before and um it felt like
one of those things where people were not talking about it because they didn't want it to to fill
very quickly but obviously it filled very quickly because there was like a 50 million dollar cap on
wallets and um it only takes a few whales to to really fucking send it but i think the demand for
stable coin exposure is just probably going
to keep going up um at least in the short to midterm and um that just has me thinking about
pump fun and some other uh you know relevant revenue generating protocols and the last week
i tweeted you know i fucked up i didn't invest in the pump fund round last year.
And I probably should have, obviously.
But the more I thought about it, the more I'm like, yeah, why not just throw a good chunk of the remaining soul I have left into this thing as soon as it comes out?
Like, what could go wrong?
Are you thinking about that at all, Peter?
Definitely.
And actually, one, I think, piece of alpha that was dropped on the Empire podcast is
Santu, and then we're talking about Circle and Pump, and obviously he's an investor.
And he said the team is the most impressive he's seen, and their execution is far and
away the best, and just basically couldn't have said anything better.
So when I hear stuff like that, and obviously we've seen their execution,
I'm not going to try to make,
I'm just, I'm going to fire at this.
I want to be aligned with the best builders
who are making a lot of money.
And yeah, I think it's,
I think it's one of the more clear trades,
assuming we're in a similar market that we're in now,
would be participating in that.
Especially look at Circle.
I think Circle is a far worse business.
And look at the reaction to Circle.
Yeah, now granted Circle has the ICO angle where a bunch of traditional money that can't
get exposure to something like pump on chain, they can ape Circle.
But I do think that trickles down.
And it does make me a little bit worried
about the Solana price in the short term,
but I think some of it was already priced in.
We saw Solana kind of sell off.
And it was obvious this pump news was semi-known
in certain circles before it was made public anyway.
But we saw Solana kind of sell off like a week before the announcement went public.
And Fartcoin.
And obviously right when it was announced, Fartcoin dropped a lot.
And then people were like, wait, maybe Fartcoin is still worth more because if Pump comes
out and goes up, then wouldn't Fartcoin go up?
Because hot air rises.
So it's interesting to watch the
Fartcoin price action because originally it was like D-Day for people worried about liquidity
black holes. The whole timeline was in consensus that, oh, this is like the other side mint.
I did a poll and I think like 65 or 70% of the people who responded to the pool were bearish on the liquidity suck which was
to me the most bullish thing
I always love to
fade consensus on CT
because it's almost
always a good bet
so when the pool came
back like that I was like alright we're gonna
either buy more or like
hold on to this we're not
we're not selling anything if ct is predominantly bearish here yeah i think that's a good counter
indicator for sure and i think sentiments changed and oh it's definitely changed in the last week
since the last show it definitely changed tyler you back i'm trying to weigh in guys guys. Sorry, I think I keep cutting in now.
So just let me know.
You sound good now.
You sound better now than you did before.
Yeah, you sound a lot better.
Okay.
Well, hopefully it's there.
It feels like a pretty strong...
There's a little bit.
Yeah.
It feels like a strong buy to me.
I think we need to see economics to know a bit more.
Leaning that it's going to be more of a net capital injection to the Solana
than extraction.
I think we saw that from how plasma played out,
how it was basically 84 whales took up 90% deposits.
I think you're going to see similar action with the presale.
It's not going to be who's dumping his whole stack to buy pump fund.
I think it's going to be more of those funds who don't play in the meme
games, but can play protocols.
And this is going to be their, their way to get exposure to that.
So I think it's going to be some of the larger players who perhaps weren't in
means filling this thing up.
I'm still working through what I think a potential price target could be for
this.
And I think we might want to see a little bit of pickup in the broader pump
fund ecosystem to build some momentum into that.
I'm curious if you have any concerns
on the front we got a bit of a glimpse this this verse works and maybe tinfoil hat
did pump fun help kind of architect
the launch on their platform yesterday momentum into their pre-sale uh because i will say i do
think the mean momentum has fallen offious if you guys have thoughts on that.
Yeah, I do think it's fallen off.
And also you have more competitors now.
Everyone basically, all the big players launched a competitor
in the Solana ecosystem.
So that would be a concern.
But I mean, the numbers on this protocol are still insane.
I mean, it's like over a million dollars a day in revenue.
Obviously it's way off the peak of, you know, about 7 million a day. But that's still a much
better setup. And if you just want to compare like fundamentals of Circle, which obviously is
different, you have TradFi that can buy and people are looking for exposure to stable coins. But
the fundamentals of POMP are just really, really strong, even at, you know,
even at the trajectory that they're on, they'd have to fall significantly for it to, to change.
And I think they'll continue to adapt. And obviously there's been a range of really bad to
some okay outcomes with the streaming. I think that there's more innovation and just again,
going back to that empire pod
when i hear an investor rave that strongly about a founding team that gives me conviction and kind
of their output and what they'll do in the future so something not to dramatically change on my end
for me to be not interested in kind of participating at least in this in some capacity oh tyler got rubbed completely um try
getting back up here but the uh the verse world launch yesterday i kind of missed it then i saw
it it's like over 100 mil it's like all right i'm not touching this and i just checked it and it's
back down to 50 million um i need to do a little bit of research on that,
but conspiracy.
I didn't hear that conspiracy until just now,
so that's interesting.
I didn't realize it was that big of a launch.
I just saw a couple memes about it on Twitter.
I'm assuming you did not ape into that one, Peter.
I just heard that conspiracy for the first time, too.
Have you made any major portfolio allocation changes over the last week or so?
Or are you pretty much where you were at last week?
Very similar to last week.
I did take a little bit of risk off.
One nice thing that we're seeing that I think is kind of a good way to gradually rebalance is uh the delta neutral strategies are paying a
bit more when we have these bull markets so it feels decent to basically just just kind of grow
the delta neutral portfolio which effectively is taking some risk off what are you using for the
delta neutral portfolio like are you farming a defy protocol with it, or are you putting it into some TradFi product?
Are you manually doing it yourself?
What's that like?
Manually doing it myself.
You take a vacation outside to another country.
Go to Mexico.
Yeah, you go to Mexico, and you can check the funding rates on a lot of tokens and watch them.
And then the cool thing is there's a lot of protocols that are going to pay you to stake a token or you can get yield posting up some of these tokens in other places.
So if you're double dipping where you're getting yield for holding the token and then you're also getting, I mean, some of the funding rates on these are quite good, especially when things are running. And you can watch that. So you're clipping, you know, 15 to 20% sometimes even higher
on the short side with leverage. And then if you can get a positive yield on the long side,
that's quite good. And there's positions like even, you know, Fartcoin, that's like an example.
I'm still net long significantly.
It's one of my bigger bags within Solana.
But I am using that as a delta neutral strategy as well.
And that's that the funding on Fartcoin has been, you know, as low as 10.9%, but as high as like 150% at times.
So to me, that's a way to kind of just think about managing risk versus just straight selling is basically increasing the delta neutral position, which is effectively just adding a bit more of a short.
And the nice thing about being short on these perps is that you're broadly getting paid the funding rate.
Yeah, it makes a lot of sense.
I think the closest thing I have in my portfolio to delta neutral is just like stuff in the hlp vault but i'm not managing it myself um obviously i still like
that vault i mean that's how i initially got found hyperliquid and um jlp is still a decent
strategy if you want to go there obviously there's a little less action and yields have been
been down but uh if you want to make a directional bet on solana it's still
most correlated with that um but obviously you have you know less upside but you're also clipping
still some of the yields and it's i mean it's still making good money um so there's strategies
like that that you can participate in um but yeah i'm enjoying the uh kind of the game of like trying
to find these like um good opportunities on the delta neutral side like
jupiter is another example um where you can stake and the staking rewards on jup have been
pretty significant um over the last couple years obviously you have to vote uh to get the highest
allocation but um funding on even like jup has been you know one or two percent positive which
is which is nice because you're getting such a strong yield on the staking side.
That makes a lot of sense. I'm looking at Hyperliquid right now
and did not realize the open interest on Fartcoin is
$280.5 million.
I mean, it's outside of the majors, it's the highest open interest
token on the whole platform,
which is impressive to me.
I didn't realize it was that high.
The other day we were talking about longing SPX
and the open interest was like capped.
So people couldn't long it.
And that only has like 35 million open interest.
So to see fart coin almost 300 million open interest is kind of
insane um yeah it's great but i yeah i don't do you like this is maybe a stupid question but how
often are you checking up on these strategies are you checking it like multiple times a day
once a day like i feel like with the funding rates being so volatile like right now funding
on spx is 222.68%.
It's incredible.
That's the one to be short, right?
That's the epitome of what you should be delta neutral on right now.
Yeah, it's just going up only rocket ship.
And that's one of the highest funding rates on the platform.
Yeah, and of course, one thing that's interesting, and I'd love to...
So how I think about my portfolio is you have your core longs, right?
And if you're going to try to at least come up with a portfolio is like you have your core longs, right? And it's,
if you're going to try to at least come up with a yield strategy, you have to be very disciplined
because of course, right now, like you'd like when, when you're getting these crazy funding
rates, you're obviously better off just in a vacuum being long that asset, right? Like you're
not getting crazy funding rates when something's tanking for the, for the most part. It's mostly
when there's animal spirits and something's exploding.
So you have to have a strategy
that you're just disciplined around that
because if you're going to play that strategy,
of course, you need to be capturing the yield
when it's highest.
So to me, it's really important
to kind of like separate out
how you're thinking about your portfolio,
if that makes sense.
And that's hard to do at times.
So that's been like my major uh let's say portfolio change it has it but just how i'm how i'm thinking about my allocation of money within
crypto i have in a yield bucket and i have my like long-term holding bucket does that make sense
yeah that makes a lot of sense it's a way to make your money work for you and then kind of limit the downside um for me only changes i've made
i'm just selling very small chunks like one percent to to take the edge off normally like
anytime a clemente posts uh tweet about hype i'm like all right i I got to sell 1%. I think I've sold 7% or 8% of my hype bag
since it hit $32 or something.
So still have most of it.
I actually staked a decent chunk
just to get it out of my wallet
so I don't look at it too,
which is nice because it doesn't show up
as a position when I open up the app
in any of the wallets I have.
So that was a nice way of saying, hey, I'm just going to lock up
a good amount of hype. If I get emotional
one day and want to sell it, well, I can't, so that's good.
I feel like sometimes the lockups are bad because they decrease your optionality, but
having some percent of it locked up feels nice because
you can't quickly get out of it,
which is sometimes a benefit, especially when these markets go a little bit more irrational
than we expect them to be. I find being sober, it's a lot easier to sell and a lot harder to
hold things these days. Whereas when I was high, it was just like, yeah, fuck it, higher.
whereas when I was high
it was just like yeah fuck it
higher
so that's been the biggest adjustment
I think for me this run
compared to where I was last year
I was looking back at some of the ordinal
round trips and I was just like man if I was sober
I probably would have sold them too early but at least I would
have sold them and I try to
think about that now as I'm looking at some of these
prices and thinking about
selling 5 or 10% of something.
It's been nice to just take the money off and not worry about it.
Yeah, it's great. It sounds super prudent.
And we talk about this all the time, especially when things are up.
It never hurts to take some lifestyle chips off if you've had huge gains.
You should be rebalancing in some capacity.
Obviously, we're all bullish and um you know
generally these are the fun days but uh it is prudent to to rebalance and of course the most
important thing is if you can't you know change your actual life like these are numbers on the
screen um it's something to do what's this result i was just kind of going through like
kind of the exercise what's this resolve? I don't know nothing about it.
The funding rate currently is 320%.
The highest spot on Hyperliquid under SPX?
Yeah.
Yeah, I saw that too.
And it looks like it's just a new token.
So that's why it's super hyped up.
It has only been on for, what, like two hours?
Yeah.
So that was my thought of like, oh oh this is something like i i need to look
around and see what it is but i'm assuming it's just like people want exposure and it's brand new
um so that's why it's so high and i don't know if it's going to stay that high though
um i've been looking at more have you been paying any attention to the believe ecosystem the
launch coin stuff over the last week or two that's
kind of having a little i don't want to say renaissance or anything but it's it's back up
to where i almost sold all of it it's at 223 million and i full stacked the rest of my bag
at 250 million so it's almost at the point where uh it would have been better for me to hold it, which is interesting. I've been dabbling in some of the low-cap tokens on Believe rather than buying back into LaunchCoin.
But I do think there's a lot of rumors about flywheels and changes and maybe the team trying to get more of the token because they realized they were underexposed
to their own token or something.
I don't know.
But it's definitely interesting.
It's nice to see it start to come back.
I do think the audience that that attracts
is quite a...
I mean, not quite a bit different,
but different for sure than the average
like Pump.Funcoin.
Yeah.
So one way I've kind of noticed
these things is I watch some of the Meteora
and Radium pools and just like what are creating
fees. So for example, like Verse,
that's how I, I mean, I didn't
ape into it. I just noticed that like
you know, some of the pools yesterday
were like at 568%
as the high, which obviously
that's just through all the volatility
of kind of the launch and then the sell-off.
But LaunchCoin has been prominent in that.
LaunchCoin has consistently been one of the highest volume trades
or pairs with Sol over the last couple of weeks.
So there's definitely a lot of attention
and a lot of movement within that ecosystem.
And I do agree, if they can execute,
it's the type of attention that could be really good.
So I don't have high conviction
that it's going to be LaunchCoin in that ecosystem,
but they're at least going after something
that merits a pretty big TAM, which is exciting.
And I just noticed mostly through the pools
that there's a lot of action there.
Are you doing any of that stuff?
These are just mostly just chilling
and sitting on some bags
and buying tokens Andy says.
And then what's your day-to-day like?
Shout out Andy.
My day-to-day right now is make breakfast,
go for a five-ish mile walk
while playing Pokemon Go on two phones,
watch Telegram chats while on the walk to see if anything interesting comes back.
Come back home.
Get on the computer for a couple hours and poke around with whatever's going on.
Make lunch or dinner or whatever.
Go hang out with the missus.
And then get back on the computer at night until like, I don't know, two in the morning or so.
So it's like half days, it feels like.
I'm spending half the day outside
fucking around on Pokemon,
and I'm spending half the day
reading on these different chats
and scrolling the timeline
and seeing what's getting attention.
So I'm like half locked in.
I'm definitely more locked in now
than I was a month ago.
I feel like in like middle of April,
I was just playing Pokemon Go all day
and then playing like Fortnite and Marvel Rivals
and not looking at charts.
Whereas now I'm a bit more in tuned
and firing off small clips into things.
So it's like half, I would say.
It's not, I'm not like I was in November
and December of last year, but I'm also like a, I would say. I'm not like I was in November and December of last year,
but I'm also a little more locked in.
And I'm always looking at the different deck screener
or vector or whatever app I'm using,
just looking at the trending tokens
and trying to see what people are aping into and talking about.
Yeah, it's always hard to me.
I feel like I don't do that well with um like buying and selling
those tokens occasionally i can do well with ghouls i'm like kind of the hot thing if i can
predict a lot of liquidity um most of the stuff that most of my returns obviously just kind of
come from the rising tide and then hopefully allocating within the ecosystem from a long-term
perspective uh better than most.
And then the thing that I'm really trying to change from previous cycles where I round-tripped too many things and, you know, during the bear, you're always regretting some of the things you didn't sell.
And what I'm trying to make sure I'm cognizant of this year is just, you know, some form of rebalancing.
And then the yield stuff is really exciting to me because then at least you feel like you're getting some of the edge
that the market's creating right now.
Because in the bear, I mean, these yield strategies
just aren't lucrative in the bear market.
No, they get it.
I think what you mentioned too is really important
for people to take away is like,
you need to know where you have some type of edge.
Like, do you have an edge executing delta neutral strategies
to pick up free money off the ground?
Do you have an edge information-wise
because you're in a ton of group chats
or have a lot of smart friends
with a lot of information flying around?
Where is your edge?
Do you have an edge because you can sit there
on a trading bot and stare at
the screen for 16 hours a day and trade 100 pairs a day? Everyone probably has a different edge and
depending on where you are, what point in life. You have wife and kids and you're a busy guy and
you're involved with multiple companies and multiple different industries it's like really hard for you to be honest with yourself and be like yeah i have an edge trading pump dot
fun chip coins under one mil like that's just it's the juice isn't worth the squeeze um at that point
i think it's loose i've played that game plenty of times and it's fun it's fun when you catch a
winner and um you know i was fortunate to be be like our chat was so great on Trump.
That was super, super lucky. You remove that. It was a pretty disastrous meme coin trading.
And that's such a good point, because it's so hard when you see all these wins and I'm in all these chats and it's easy to convince yourself you have an edge.
But you have to be really disciplined and actually track how you're doing.
And before Trump, I was not doing well.
So it's like, OK, I know that that's not one of my edges.
And along those lines, I think this is applicable to everyone in this chat or in this space.
The easiest thing to do is just hold a good asset and then not fumble it when things go down.
Like if you've just held Bitcoin and not done anything
for the last five to 10 years,
you're absolutely smashing it.
And to me, that's still kind of one of the easy trades
is especially with all the momentum.
Bitcoin is digital gold.
Gold's market cap's over 20 trillion.
Bitcoin's is a little over $2 trillion.
Those are going to converge.
And if you hold Bitcoin for the next 5, 10 years, you're probably going to do really well.
That's one of the easiest ways to have an edge is just owning a good asset.
And I think what's interesting is if you had to pick these, what else outside of Bitcoin you'd feel comfortable holding for like the next five to ten years like if you had to build a bag that you say okay this is this is the stuff i'm not
going to touch what would that include um is it crypto only or can it be things that aren't in
crypto let's do both do your crypto first and then throw in stuff that otherwise that you'd say
five-year time horizon almost feels impossible in crypto i think the only things i
would say would be like probably eth and the nfts i've held for for five years already um but i don't
think there's anything else that i would want to bet on a five-year time horizon with like not hype
or meme coins or anything that I could be somewhat convinced in.
And then in terms of not crypto,
I would just probably own the most boring answer possible,
which would just be like index funds and NVIDIA.
And I don't even know if that's the right answer.
But you get to a point too, it depends on what your wealth goals are in life.
And when you're only like a couple multiples away from being very, you know, comfy in the Midwest, you in like uh fart coin spx hype and that's it and like they like don't own bitcoin they don't
own ethereum they have like you know they just go all into like some of the riskiest highest upside
things like i'm not that type of person so for me it's just like what can i hold and never
worry about um and what might go up like 2x or 3x over the next five years um and that's what i
would allocate more to because i don't really need much more than that and if i do get lucky
and make more than that i'm happy but i'm not trying to like maximize the amount of wealth
i can make at this stage it's more trying to minimize the amount of wealth I can make at this stage.
It's more trying to minimize the downside so that I don't need to get a job.
My wife doesn't need to go get a job.
I can take care of a future kid if we're lucky and that stuff.
So it really just depends on your own personal goals.
I think some people, they want to buy a $500,000 car
and buy a $5 million house.
That's not me.
I don't want to buy a $100,000 watch.
I could not care less.
So I don't really optimize for that type of stuff,
which is a really boring answer.
But yeah,
I wouldn't be betting on anything
other than Bitcoin and ETH
and the NFTs I have because I still think all that stuff will be relevant in five years. A lot of the NFTs I have now I've been holding for four or five years, and some of them are relevant, some of them aren't, but I don't think that's going to go away.
I'll give my answer and then kind of double click on a couple things there.
For me, the crypto stuff I'd feel comfortable holding for the next, you know, if I had to,
you just say, here's the bucket that I'm going to have and I can't do anything for the next five years.
It'd be Bitcoin, ETH, and then for sure a punk.
Outside of that, it's a tier down where I feel like the risk reward is,
and if you didn't have the optionality,
it'd be harder to hold,
but I would consider Solana, Hype, Aave, Uni,
maybe like a Jupiter.
Probably not Jupiter,
but that would be something like with fundamentals
that like Aave in particular.
Yeah, I mean, Aave has already been relevant now
for multiple cycles.
It's the backbone of Ethereum DeFi, so I don't think that's going anywhere right so it'd be some that's a secondary
bucket and it's probably better just to say like i'd feel more comfortable just saying bitcoin
eth and the punks um but those would be the type of things that i'd consider and uh yeah just
hitting on what you said i mean how i think about it, everyone always has a number in mind where you have true financial freedom.
That's dependent on your family dynamic, what your annual burn is.
Let's just say that number is $10 million, which a lot of people have.
Once you hit that number and you can basically ensure you're not forced to work. You now own your time going forward.
It's really important not to gamble that way. And I've seen that happen so many times. And
obviously, some people are just built that way. They want to continue to take a ton of risk.
But broadly, if you can get to that financial freedom number where you can ensure you're in
control of your time for you and your family, you want to do everything you can to protect that and kind of maintain that purchasing power. And then you can allocate
capital and excess of that a different way if you want. But that to me is something that's
really important to think about for most people, especially in crypto, where we've had these huge
swings is, can you unlock financial freedom for you and your family
and if you can you should optimize around trying your best to get to that number um you can take
a really risky path or a less risky path to get to that number and then once you actually have it
not moving the goal posts which almost everyone does i certainly have been guilty of that um
you get to a number of people, move the number
way. I did that last cycle and I never did that. It always happens. So set a realistic goal. And
then if you can have discipline around that and really put yourself in a position where you can
try to protect that, then that to me is like, that's what money's for. It's a tool to basically
unlock the most valuable thing that we all have, which is time. Yeah, I think that's what money is for it's a tool to you know basically unlock the most valuable thing that we all have which is time yeah i think that's a great way to say it and we could probably wrap up because
we're at the top of the hour but i i do think at the end of the day moving the goalpost is like the
most dangerous thing you can do and a lot of us have to learn that lesson the hard way um you
you normally move the goalposts one notch too far you backtrack and lose 50% plus of what you had,
and then wonder what the fuck you were doing in hindsight.
No one gets it perfect.
Everyone moves the goalposts.
No one times it perfectly.
You're never satisfied as an investor.
So that's why you need some sort of framework.
And it also evolves, right?
If your goal is 10 million and you're at
8 million, you don't need
to be...
8 million is basically 10 million.
8 million is like 10 million
in a year if you just hold Bitcoin
or something. It's not like you need to
keep going balls to the walls because you're
so close to your goal. You can
have this evolving risk
framework and as you get closer to the number,
trim off more and more and more instead of just trying to get to that number.
I think having a very specific number can also be a little damaging because I've seen so many people
turn 10k into 400k and they're like, well, I make 500k or i've seen like you know people turn
50k into 900k and they're like well i want to make a million and then that last 10 or whatever
they fucking blow themselves out trying to make it and then they go back down closer to where
they started when they were basically at their goal anyway um and yeah not to that's very that's
very good advice you shouldn't do that and also
when you're gonna get to a point you're not gonna just like sell it all no like you're like if you
have 10 million dollars you want some allocation to be don't want all bonds exactly so it's a
nuanced conversation but i think it's really important and i especially like to talk about
this stuff now because no like during these bull markets and when we're all feeling good, people are just thinking, okay, what's the next thing to make money on?
How am I going to get richer than I am today?
Yeah, 150k Bitcoin, we're going to be morons.
So it's better to think about your plan now than when the animal spirits are at all time high.
Exactly.
And then we're all going to be sobbing and like, I should have sold like you i mean how are the spaces from 22 and 23 you know like we're
all just talking about i checked out for almost a year because it was so bad i was like i'm just
not even gonna think about it i'm gonna get high and cope yeah well it's fun chatting with you
i'll let you go i I really enjoyed it, man.
Rest in peace, Tyler.
We'll have Jeeves back next week.
Hopefully, StreamYard is working.
Seems like there's some broader issue,
at least Sims thinks there is,
because he said StreamYard's kind of shitting the bed
for multiple people across the spectrum,
not just Twitter.
But thanks, everyone, for coming out,
listening to us.
This is recorded, so if you came in late
you can catch it first 15 minutes are on the underexposed page and then the rest of it's
on this page so thank you guys for coming thanks peter and we'll talk to you all next week
feels weird with no outro music or anything i'm just gonna rug it Thank you.
