Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best daily YouTube live stream to talk about markets. Welcome, guys.
Happy Thursday. I think the most underappreciated day of the week, right? It's kind of like a pseudo Friday, but we're going
to have a great show for you all today. We're going to talk about equities, crypto, maybe even
some Chinese stocks. I do see some requests in the comments. If you guys have something that you want
us to look at that's not bottom of the barrel, of course, we will do our best to look at it on
today's show. But you guys have to hit the like button before we do that, and I'll get to that in just a second.
But first, you guys know me as Tommy, also as Snorlax.
I am joined by Tucker, Chep Jackis, and of course, Big Louie.
So welcome to you guys as well.
Before we can get into the meat of the show, before I can start kind of talking about, I mean, at least the last time I checked, equities went from red to green.
Before we can get into the meat of the show, before I can start kind of talking about,
Crypto as well. Saw some red in Asia session. Flipped green around the time of New York open.
I'm going to need you to hit the like button.
If you want us to look at, you know, whatever ticker that you might suggest in the comments, we're going to do our best to get to those. If you hit the like button, if you do your part, we're doing ours. And of
course, if you guys hit the like button, then the YouTube Algos will be able to do their part as
well. So we always appreciate when you guys can do that for us. But as I always like to say, nevertheless, we are going to have a great show. So let's get into kind of what markets are doing today.
It's like I was kind of saying, I mean, look, like markets are very much in the same place,
at least, you know, crypto is very much in the same place that it has been for the last week or
so. Equity markets kind of continue to do this, I would say
like this soft rally where they're just kind of slow grinding higher. But we have, you know, in
between had quite a few things happen in markets, right? We've got more tariff news. We've got,
we've had plenty of options expirations. We've had hyper liquid FUD uh just a lot going on in our you know our ever present and ever
active uh world markets uh we're seeing Chinese stocks bounce today which I made this comment on
our morning call I think the fact that you're seeing Chinese equities bounce during New York
session for the first time in about like a week is probably a decent sign, at least for some
short-term continuation higher in equity markets. Will this bleed over into crypto? I guess we'll
see. In similar fashion, the way that we were talking about options expiration for equities
last week, I think you could see a positive impact on crypto actually from tomorrow's,
or rather tonight's options expiration over in
Bitcoin and ETH. So that could be something to watch as well. But we continue to see, I feel
like this relative strength from a few altcoins. And sure, you look at the market structure and
you're like, well, those green candles are kind of like a blip given the last three or four months of trend.
But I think you're paying attention to it on a bit more of a lower timeframe basis. There are
some altcoins. There are some narratives that are beginning to perk their heads up and not just show,
I think, signs of life, but also some decent volume coming in and decent signs of bid.
So let's talk about it, guys. what are we seeing in the markets today do
we have any thoughts on on today's price action uh i know we've kind of been like i said crypto is
very much in the same place that it has been over the last few weeks but uh how are you guys
interpreting just kind of the full picture of markets today not all jackass that was nice go for it go for it the XY looks it wants to go new lows not seen since 2022.
That was it today, guys. Good morning.
I'm a big USD JPY bear right now.
I'm not really trading the dollar as much as i am trading that pair so you're a jpy bull is what you're saying yes i am
do you do you have a target on this one or is it just usd jpy yeah
uh yes let me go through my object tree
now i i think it can come down a lot uh to being serious like i uh i was i didn't even know that inbesco had an etf where you can bet on
the appreciation of the yen which is um i always forget the ticker because i'm just so unfamiliar
with it but fxy uh is kind of how i think you could see the USDJPY kind of...
I mean, it might retrace the entire 2022 pump, honestly.
He said, Jackis is looking like Louie today.
I am a bit of a hobbit. I am a bit of a hobbit so you didn't know it but louis was in mordor
and caught a little bit of cuff there.
Yeah, I liked a little, had a little bear trap this morning.
Equity sold off, crypto sold off, but getting bought back nicely here.
I like that um i mean pretty much the s&p is just backfilling uh its gap that pushed us back
inside of its range if you want to pull that up tuck um and we're kind of retesting the structure S&P, yeah. Yeah. We gapped up back into the range.
If you go a little lower, use those highs and those lows there.
But regardless, backfilled that gap.
And I have it drawn as we're pretty much trying to flip this level back into support.
So I think we're at a good spot to to bounce here after some
after a little sell-off last day and a half so um i like i like the buyback this morning after
filling that gap i think that's a that's a good sign but you know want to see that stick you know
throughout the rest of the day i like it too and i also think that uh spx should be still going higher first uh in this pullback
you know technically if you were to draw a fape from the high we haven't reached uh an eq just
yet eq is a 50 retracement so i still think we at least hit that on the on this uh pullback if not higher tucker
all right i'm doing like yeah i still like like 5900 on uh on spooz and 21 000 on the nasdaq uh
59 why 59 dude i feel like this is your no i was saying i was saying your level so what are you saying
uh if you can draw a fit from the highs um on this recent pullback to like here yeah yeah like
yeah basically and maybe add the 50%, the EQ.
Better. All right. Yeah, so we haven't even hit that on this pullback i still
think we do and uh yeah that then you start to trade at uh you know premium or discount depending
on which side you wanna take but until then i still think spx also has uh hard to go what's interesting though
not sure if you guys noticed but uh spx is stronger than nvidia here while in the past
two years it's been nvidia that's been pulling up spx to the upside
that's been pulling up SPX to the upside.
That's a good sign, I would say.
We are seeing weakness in the AI narrative.
Who is it that IPOs tomorrow?
That could give NVIDIA a little bit of a boost, maybe, over the next few sessions.
Dude, how does this get turned against me?
Like, YB says, we are so back, Hagrid got the American flag on the us and then
patriotism jackie's i'm like what
oh my god what does this has to do anything with me i love i love patriotism but why is it like
against me guilty by association yeah oh my god that's funny no i mean it's like you said jack is nvidia has really been dragging
tech up since um you know kind of since the inception of this bowl cycle in 2022
uh i have a lot of questions about how it's going to trade here for
the rest of the year but you know maybe some different mag 7 stock can take the reins and
and kind of take over i know we've had a few subscribers ask us about meta for example um
i i will say i think tesla probably continues to trade lower throughout this year, so it's probably not going to do that one.
But, I mean, Tesla got so beaten up off the high that it makes sense we're seeing this bounce.
And I think this bounce can still continue higher, and that will also probably assist things like the S&P and the NASDAQ here in the near term to continue this rally.
and the nasdaq uh here in the near term to continue this rally
yeah i think tesla can still bounce higher but just as you i think it's likely to go lower again
um not expecting much from it in the near future
because you know if you look at this chart, you had a clean.
Like if this was an alt, you would be thinking scam pump into new highs and then go Blintown.
We had the run up already.
The manipulated move. And now goblintown
this is what you would be thinking if uh this wasn't random alt which it isn't of course but
uh you know it kind of trades like one though tesla i enjoy trading trading Tesla probably more than any other equity chart, to be honest.
It just, it trades like it's a retail chart, you know?
It's kind of crazy how lots of NPCs around the world were like,
Tesla, awesome, EV evs you know and now cnbc tells them
musk is bad and they are like oh musk is bad tesla's bad burning tesla dude they they firebombed
the tesla here where i'm at wait really firebombed a couple tesla truck dealerships yeah it's crazy
it's like it hasn't happened here yeah
oh i'm shocked it hasn't happened yeah it's still the same tesla but apparently some people just
i didn't realize tesla's still basically trading at like 100 or 110 pe ratio yeah that's nuts
i still think probably you know what is going to be
the most important for tesla will be the humanoid robotics the optimal stuff and so
what do you guys think i think this that's going to be more important to Tesla than the cars itself.
Well, I'm definitely in that camp as well.
But obviously that will take some time before it truly gets implemented implemented when it becomes mainstream. And obviously, that will take probably
some time to show up in the chart too. Yeah, it'll probably, I mean, I feel like robotics will
probably be that next big tech narrative. I guess the question I'm just going to ask myself is,
does that happen in conjunction with AI or are
they like separate bubbles that then can join in the future? That's probably at least what I'm most
interested in seeing. But I made this comment on Twitter. I want to know what you guys think of it.
I kind of view AI a little bit like, I mean, at least right now, the rhetoric around AI is like, yeah,
you're getting your job is replaced in two to three years. Get excited about it.
But it reminds me of, uh, of DeFi back in 2020 to 2021, where everybody was like, yeah, DeFi is
going to replace all of our traditional finance systems probably very soon. Uh, and you know,
both statements on a long enough timeline are probably right, at least to some degree. But right now, I think, you know, what people want most, at least early adopters, they wanted Ponzi's and they want generative art.
feature i don't even know how to pronounce it but i've seen it all over the timeline
i'm sure you can do some really creative things with it but all people want to do is
make generative art just like uh just like some of the last few ai iterations so
uh i think there's a disconnect between kind of like point a to point b at least kind of that in
between um but of course i mean we're speculators we're always going to leap towards point b
before we can uh before we establish that stable footing at that that point a
well i feel that you know the discussion that robots will take away our jobs has been around
forever um you know even like 100 years ago people were trying to crash down any mechanical machine
that would apparently take the job from the people.
And the reality is the opposite, actually.
The reality is that we have one of the lowest unemployment levels in a long time.
And I know lots of the jobs are, you know, putting paper from one side of the table to the next.
But in reality, it's really like people want to work.
And when one job gets closed, some other opens up.
So I wouldn't be too worried that the humanoid robotics will take the job from people.
They will, but new jobs will be opened up.
So it will be more about being flexible and being able to adapt to new work areas, basically.
It will get there eventually in the same way that I think we're already kind of seeing.
I feel like the news that we've seen around DeFi now,
even though it's not reflected in price the same way as 2021,
we're much closer to that goal at this current moment than we were in 2020 or 2021.
Like all the talk about stablecoin adoption recently is insanely bullish for DeFi
on like a multi-year time horizon.
At least that's how I view it.
I don't know if you guys agree with that, but no, I mean,
undercurrent around DeFi right now, even though sentiment for ETH is so bad, it's actually really
positive. Yeah, that's real. Did we lose Tucker? Yeah yeah he had a job okay
so listen lots of you know
lots of jobs will disappear back in the day you know louis would be the the smith one would be the Smith. One would be the carpenter.
Nowadays, we get to discuss stuff here and talk about shitcoins, right?
In the future, instead of being the carpenter,
he will be launching shitcoins on pump.fun.
So what a time to be alive.
Yeah, it's just going to be different.
Different style of a workforce.
production and hard work to more service-based, right?
So people will be doing services and creativity
while like robots will be doing most of the manual hard work stuff.
How the barista looks at me expecting a tip after microwaving a sandwich.
I got such a kick out of it.
The memes are always awesome about this stuff.
So guys, what do we think about BTC here?
Are we back? Is it another new low?
I think we're gearing up for a rate on probably low to mid-90s, honestly,
into the beginning of April.
Obviously, we have this pretty, pretty prominent downtrend
here. It's been capping us since the highs in January. Um, you know, right now kind of just
flagging so far at least, you know, right under this trend line, but I keep seeing this type of
move. I don't like that. You know, that one big squeeze, big squeeze, something like this. And then we see if we could
actually reclaim our lost structure. So I'm still waiting on this one last squeeze, breaking this
downtrend and seeing what we can do at um, level that we lost. Right. So we obviously want to see this, this white box is white level reclaimed, reclaimed, right.
Um, and so far we've been rejected two times trying to get back inside.
So, um, you know, we, it looks like we're going for another attempt, right.
It looks like we're going for another attempt, right?
But, I mean, I would say, you know, short term, I do want to see, you know, if this is going to happen, you know, within the next week or so.
I think it needs to happen relatively soon.
Or, you know, likely we're probably going to float back down to here and then possibly see, you know, what we can do from down here and maybe go for it.
Right. So I'm pretty much in the camp where if we want to have a relatively locally, like over
the next couple of days, alts and Bitcoin continue to rally, it needs to happen soon. Or we're at a
good spot where we can give a lot of this climb back before maybe basing, you know, and then going,
right. So I think if we are going to break this, it needs to be soon. Or again, I think we might
give back some of this climb. You know, we do have a lot of stacked lows here at this point.
So I think it needs to happen, or we might float back down, you know, run some of these lows,
maybe base and then come for it again.
So that's kind of where I'm at.
So I want to see this happen relatively soon, in my opinion,
or we have probably a longer period of time down here,
which I'm sure most of us don't want.
From my experience, when you've created such a base
leading to the downtrend, you usually tend to break it.
I do not think, we do have lots of lower time frame lows, but usually when it's like this, you can take like one, maybe two, but generally not all of them.
And so I expect the breakout to happen sooner or later.
the breakout to happen sooner or later.
I think, as I've been saying,
BTC will be a little bit boring
through this period for some time,
but generally holding up pretty well
In the meantime, you will have
that has been left in equities
but when it comes to BTC I think it
remains relatively stable yeah it will be boring it's a boring period right now but boring periods
is are the best for bottom creation yeah I think and I think something like Bitcoin at least at
the moment is trading very very like structurally correlated to equity markets like the S&P and the Nasdaq.
So if this rally is going to have another leg in equities and I do think that it does, I feel like it makes sense that we pump into, you know, Liberation Day on April 2nd.
And then I think that probably be where i would be looking for a local top to
form around that period um maybe that's just like kind of us trading back to the range lows maybe
that's a deeper correction i guess we'll see but that's that's kind of like the the time frame where
i think you know we're probably putting in a high near that and then i mean, I'm personally looking for like a reacceleration of selling
around like VIXPiration in April, which is like April 17. So those are kind of like two dates
that I'm watching at the moment. But I do think it makes sense that we at least pump into April
2nd, maybe a little bit after that, right? Get everybody thinking that tariffs don't actually
matter. I don't think they're what's moving the market by the way but uh it's a market that loves to assign narratives to moves
uh i do think that equities so like the long story short of it is i do think that we're going to see
another pump on bitcoin if we see another leg up here on equities within this rally and i do think
that we will yeah so i'm on the same board yeah
like if we get this move we get this downtrend break we get this squeeze you know back up into
this area i will probably be you know a profit taker or taking some money off the table into that
squeeze right um and just kind of waiting and seeing what we do
right if we can come back after that um and you know successfully you know reclaim this structure
that we lost and we get confirmation right and we start to I'll, I'll add back to other stuff. Right. Um, but there's always a possibility where Bitcoin squeezes like this and then, you know,
kind of comes back down. So we don't want this, right. So I think that your, your best bet is if
we do get a nice squeeze, you know, into the next week or so come up into this level, I might be wise
to take some, take some money off the table. Right, right? If you haven't already, right?
If you weren't a seller before all this,
this might be a good chance to maybe take some off the table,
make some moves in your portfolio, restructure it,
get out of stuff that you might be stuck in,
and then wait and see how to react up here.
If we do recapture this, I think this is extremely bullish. And I think if we do get confirmation that we're
reestablishing price back inside, you know, this market structure that we lost,
I think we're setting up ourselves up for a scenario where we head back to the highs on
Bitcoin and probably go for another leg. Right.
So that's kind of what I'm looking for and waiting on.
Waiting for the last leg of this little squeeze or this climb off the lows,
taking advantage of it, and then seeing where we go from there.
I think that might be a wise decision.
What do you guys think about that?
No, I mean, I think that's how I'm approaching it too. I'm just a little disappointed ETH hasn't put in a bit bigger of a bounce off these lows.
He's taking partial profits. Continue with the pump.
Yeah, like we couldn't even run this high. like it's crazy like when we were up here and like kind of
consolidating you know i was i could i made sense to me that we would get one more squeeze right at
least run the origin of this move uh and then see a larger correction that kind of made sense to me
but i feel like that's just been the story of eve right like it's just it doesn't have a lot of pop a lot of bounce to it just yet
i'm sure it's coming it's just not here yet you know it's just been you know a decent little
climb but you know it's just not coming to life just yet it's pretty crazy like i have a hunch
i have a hunch it's gonna hunch it's going to do what
eat loves to do which is where it just kind of like lags the entire move and then catches up
in one candle uh on like a relative basis to bitcoin so you know bitcoin is going to go sweep
that sbr wick you know i don't know if eith is going to get quite to like 2600 in one move but
i do think it could be a pretty ferocious candle.
You know, like relatively speaking, right?
We're used to ETH putting in much larger candles than that in the past,
but right now that would be a very large move to be expecting on ETH.
I do think that it makes sense to at least kind of test that level
you've got marked as a key reclaim, um, here,
I really think you're going to squeeze some of these bottom shorters out of the market before
you get another leg down on Eve. That's what I would think. Right. Uh, I, you know, I would
have expected this to already keep going, but it looks like this move is already stalling out. I
mean, I don't know, you know, maybe that's just, uh, the trap, right. Who knows? I don't know. But, uh, right now
it kind of looks like it's going to wants to do this and then maybe do a move. Right. And then
maybe kind of come up and do that big move. Right. Who knows? Um, but yeah, I was expecting
a little more follow through, right? At least run this high.
Then maybe you get the larger pullback.
And then, you know, you start to stair-step these.
But it's just hasn't been happening.
I like that we're seeing some alts.
Like, it'd be different if I think ETH were trading here
and you had some altcoins completely have already played out the move
that I'm kind of expecting.
But I am encouraged by the fact that you have some altcoins
that I think are probably close to the beginning of some new uptrends
And they'll probably move in unison
with ETH. I'm talking specifically about something like Sonic. I just love the Sonic chart here.
Been showing strength all week. Bitcoin and ETH have been shopping and you've consistently seen
and appreciate against both of them really over the last week. I don't think that it's broken out yet.
And I think it will probably break out in unison with ETH.
I'm liking the chart too.
I'm going to have to pull you guys and say,
I think it might come lower first, depending on what we see in the market.
We are tasting our own medicine.
You want to be bullish on an asset, and then he comes in and says lower.
Yeah, the story of my life.
That's not what I want to hear.
Tommy and Jack are telling me it's going to come lower.
But no, it looks really good, right?
We looked at this last week, or was that earlier in the week?
I don't remember, but you're at a key. think uh we would be going clover louis i'm interested
so just like i i play i play these wedges a lot you know um and you know normally
the fourth the fourth tap is the go right you kind of like how we just saw on the USDT,
it looked like it was going to break out and then failed.
just playing these so much,
I've been suckered in so many times trying to play a breakout,
that looks like this for this move,
and got stuck on this and then it comes and breaks out later, you know, that looks like this for this move, uh, and got stuck on this.
And then it comes and breaks out later, you know, and it's not that big of a deal, right?
I mean, it's not, I don't think it's going to make new lows, right?
I don't think it's going to make new lows, but you know, we could see, you know, a rejection
here, but you also could pop here, right?
So I do really like the level, right? You
got confluence, confluence resistance, falling trend line, uh, horizontal, um, big horizontal
level. Um, and it's coming, it's, it's pushing into this level, right? So probably the one time
I'm looking to be patient and looking for this, this will happen. Right. Um, and that's just,
that's just trading. Right. But, But, yeah, I don't know.
The way it's kind of drifting into this, I don't know.
I kind of feel like something like this.
I do think it needs to move soon, right?
I will probably get kind of more in the camp
that you could go back and sweep that low,
kind of similar to something like what Sui did.
I think it was last year before it
actually gave the real move higher i i think i almost feel like the uh the coin x chart that
you've got for sonic like if you're just looking at sonic from uh from like i think it's it's like
the the binance chart it looks very it i think it paints a different picture than coin x so it's kind of like an interesting perspective to see um now i have a feeling that uh tommy will
get frustrated with sonic it will drop lower he will be out and then it pumps
yeah it's not very nice i uh i'm long from like 50 cents so it'd take a little bit to shake me out
yeah but if it comes back to 55 which still would be you know pretty fine you will be like
i don't know this this looks like it didn't move to the upside as i expected
This looks like it didn't move to the upside as I expected.
I hate that you're right.
Yeah, this looks way different.
Yeah, I guess that gives you a different perspective for sure.
Well, you can always go to ftm usd charts
right yeah that's true to get this still buy ftm on eth by the way the liquidity is not that great
but can you yeah i mean it's it's still the same chart oh yeah it seems like
well that's good to know wow a lot of the charts are gone huh yeah
is the ftm give you not the full price history yeah you need to you need to go no no it will
let you you just need to go ftm usD and go for the index or crypto chart.
This is one of the most schizophrenic charts in crypto, historically speaking.
But when it runs, it runs.
I've always kind of noticed uh even since like 2021 whoever is market making ftm
is they're usually ahead of like every single trend yeah now usually when you see ftm pumping
usually that's a good sign i guess it makes sense because at least on the downside, it's going to be one of the first things that gets sold off.
Maybe the same thing applies for the beginning of an uptrend.
I happen to like just kind of the way it aligns, though, with my bias on Bitcoin and ETH, kind of expecting another leg up.
And also, you know, Sonic's got some catalysts for the chain right now.
They're trying to encourage people to use it. pretty sure there's an airdrop in june uh i imagine that
it'll top well before that but um in the meantime you know you want to incentivize people to come
use your chain i'm sure there's some pretty good yield opportunities there as well not that i am
a yield far more, but I actually like
using the upgraded chain. It's very fast.
Do you think we've seen all-time highs
at least here over the next few weeks i think that's
something that can be attained are we going to do this harmonic forever maybe
up and down up and down up and down this is like accumulation could be schizophrenic accumulation but
even on this chart you know like this you can tell that this 60 cents level is a big level
you know you're above 60 cents you're bullish right above 60 cents you're bullish right below
bearish right below bearish so it's at it's at that point like
you know different chart but like different level different trend line but both charts tell the same
story at a pretty pretty much at a really big level so if it pops it's probably going to pop
hard if it doesn't maybe you get rejected one more time and then go
for it so you know two different charts we're both kind of telling the same story i generally
think that if sonic or ftm makes it above one dollar it it should be reaching up to like 1.7
1.7 yeah i agree i i'm gonna keep comparing like if you just kind of look at the new sonic chart
since basically uh i i benchmark it from the binance chart but i i feel like if i'm looking
at like the weekly on it or like the three day it just reminds me so much structurally of like
that suey half pipe i'm gonna'm going to keep beating that horse to death.
Sui is going to trade probably much worse than Sonic, though.
Whoever the Sui market maker is,
he is Bob Ross level painter.
I'm not sure I'm bullish on Sui just it. I'm not either. I'm definitely not bullish on Sui, but
Which bar this one? Yeah, can you go to the the other the Binance Sonic chart?
Put it on like yeah the three day and then puts sui on like the monthly i just feel like they're pretty similar looking obviously lower time frame pa will have a lot
of variants but i am reminded of of. It's pretty crazy.
It's a nice monthly candle there.
But yeah, I see the similarities for sure.
Yeah, this is a decent monthly candle for Sui.
Similar to what we got here at the top, down,
but another one the opposite way.
But I think there's better risk-re reward stuff out there than Sui.
But it's something you probably could size into, you know?
What is the market cap of Sui right now?
The FDB is still 27 million.
That's nuts, considering I have met probably, like, three people who have ever used the chain, and I was one of them.
Tell me, do you know how is it exactly with the FTM token on ETH?
Is it just, is it like, because I suppose it's not the new Sonic, right?
It's the same, but the liquidity is just a little bit, or it's a lot worse.
So you can't like supersize into it unless you're clipping in.
But yeah, I mean, they kind of migrated that on-chain liquidity over to Sonic.
So you just kind of have to be a little bit more conservative in your sizing.
But it should trade one-to-one, right?
Sonic. You're going to love the name Sonic, though.
That sounds Bible. You know, like, oh, I thought Sonic. Sonic.
The ticker is sauce, though.
I have a friend who is telling me that Sonic has good astrology this year.
I'm trying to remember why he was saying that,
but he's maybe my most schizophrenic friend, so I tend to believe him.
How do you make astrology for a single coin? Well, XRP, for example, has typically its best appreciation
when Venus is transiting Aries.
But how do you make it for a single coin?
Like, how do you base it on that?
I wish I could understand that a bit more,
but that is unfortunately not something
that I have really dove into myself.
Like, is it based on the launch of the token,
or is it based on the letters?
Or like, you know what I'm trying to say, right?
Like, if you have, for example, you
have a moving average, right?
And you know it's the average combined
of closing price of the last you know period that you type in so like
20 ema is a 20 sma is just a 20 day if you are using daily uh you know the average of the past
20 closing days and then you get a line i'm trying to understand how is like astrology being made for a single coin right
like i i can understand it for like everything based on based on the planet and so forth but
how is it like for a single coin that that's you'd have to ask somebody who's a little bit deeper
into it than me i'm i try to keep my stuff broad, but I mean, I'm sure there's like
some super secret alpha that gets passed down through a small number of people that works out
really well for those people. But I feel like it's kind of a big information asymmetry for a reason.
You know, you're not going to give that away super easily.
I think it's more focused on the launch date.
I do think this has a lot to do with it as well.
That would make the most sense to me. That said, how do you define the launch date?
Because it gets listed on a different exchange as well.
It gets listed on a different exchange as well,
so you just use the one, like the official one from the team.
I think these are questions that Big Planet doesn't want you to ask, Jack.
I think Link above like 20 could be bullish.
Can you put Link next to Sonic?
yeah same totally same i'll use the uh this chart i feel like that'd be better and then
i'll do like that'll do like the six hour.
What are you saying here?
Well, nothing because it's not the same time frame.
What do you want? Tell me what you want.
Well, I wanted you to put it under the chart of link,
but on the same time frame.
So just use the block class function.
Gotcha, gotcha, gotcha. Sorry.
I do not think the earth is flat, for the record.
Although there are some BBT members that do think the Earth is flat, for the record. Although there are some BBT members
that do think the Earth is flat.
I will make their case for them.
Maybe use the FTM chart then, because Sonic
doesn't have much price history.
Interesting. Yeah. okay interesting yeah yeah i think if all of these coins start to rotating to the upside we might have a run here
yeah yeah yeah a lot of them are like at these big you know
rising levels a lot of all a lot of like the older altcoins look like this very similar where
like they had a little run you know end of 2023 sold off at another run you know middle of 2020
towards the end of 2024 sold off but they're all like slowly you know, middle of 2020, towards the end of 2024, sold off.
But they're all like slowly, you know, a lot of them, the good ones are slowly just grinding higher, right?
So like, is this just like massive accumulation, right? Like accumulation here, boom, okay, manipulation, accumulation again, boom, manipulation. And and then third time it's like okay
here comes the real move right like that's kind of what i'm seeing on a lot of alt coins but
to expect a big move out of like you know two big runs and sell us like this is not
not like it doesn't make a lot of sense like it really does i have to be honest but
like it doesn't make a lot of sense like it really does i have to be honest but
the optimist in me tells me that it's possible and tells me that um you know this is just
kind of the schizophrenia before the you know the real move right like we did see something similar
right on link last let me get rid of this um Last cycle, right? We're not as prominent, but you know, you had a run, sell off.
And on this sell off, probably a lot of people were like not hopeful for Link, right?
Pretty much gave back this whole move, started climbing, boom, big sell off again, right?
And then you had your five, 600% run.
Right. So we could be at a spot where we're either here, you know, this was COVID, I think,
so you could probably just erase this, but we could be like here and just slowly going to be
grinding up until, you know, these things start picking up again. So it's definitely a possibility.
It's definitely not, you know, not something too crazy, but it just doesn't feel like it.
It doesn't, the logical mind would not comprehend, you know, but if markets were logical, everyone
So, well, I think, I think if you think about it,
Ling hasn't made new lows below August 5th,
So in a way, Ling is staying pretty strong.
And if Ease is at some point breaking 4K,
well, in that case, I would assume Ling
is at new all-time highs probably.
Let's put it on the weekly here.
Sergey's going to have to stop dumping for that to happen.
Yeah, but again, well, Vitalik have to stop dumping.
So again, Link is above August 5th low, while Ys is below it.
So in that sense, Link is way stronger than ETH.
Yeah. And if ETH is coming back to 4k, then likely link will be way higher than that.
Well, link ETH kind of tends to lead a lot of moves in the market.
Go on link ETH and it's probably tradable on Binance.
No, no, no, just LinkEase.
I used to have a drawing before TradingView deleted everything out of my object tree that was very actionable for Link.
Just type LinkEase without the USDT.
Just without, yeah, just LinkEase.
Oh. Just without... Yeah, just LinkEase. Oh!
I recommended Link in our team meeting.
But, I mean, yeah, it's...
This looks ready to rip. It does. one more each man or eat that's a really
good looking chart yeah this is nice this is nice so the eternal question who is going to buy the Ys Alpha coin?
If Link is initiating a new bull cycle, it's going to be the first DeFi coin to do it.
It's going to be Link or Ave because historically speaking, it's kind of always been the case.
At least, you know, the sample size is like two, but.
That's all you can work with yeah
no that that's really good looking chart i'm going to lie i'll tell you what man i feel like there's not a day that goes by that i
don't see link like posting new like new partnerships and new and like news you know
whether it's whether they're legitimate or not i don't know but well well oracles just make lots
of fundamental sense in the future of crypto like you will you will need that absolutely you know you need to
connect the the real world to the to the internet so it does make so much sense the only question is
is it going to be link leading or is it going to be something else but i think generally it's going
to happen there's been big discussion whether that's possible or not but i think
in time we will just simply implement you know it will sort of be like fiat right like fiat we all
know it has no value and it's a scam but at the same time everyone is using it because everyone's
using it and so i think this is kind of going to be the stuff with oracles where lots of, for
example, Bitcoin maxi says like, uh, that it's like so hard to technically do the oracles
onto the blockchain and it can be skewed.
But I think when it gets big enough and maybe in time it will get like some government support
or something, then the oracles will be, uh, simply people will trust it because it will get like some government support or something then the oracles will be uh simply people
will trust it because it will be just too big and might have that you know government support or
whatever so yeah i think i think that's something to stick around i'm just not sure if link is going
to have this big of a run again maybe it'd be interesting well i think it's
definitely an etf candidate for sure um do you guys this one would make sense do you guys think
we get a bunch of alts getting etf approvals over the next few months i i just don't find it like
why would you need an ETF for every single coin?
I feel like it makes sense for Bitcoin, ETH, you know, maybe a few others.
Maybe Link would make sense because it's, you know, an oracle again. But at the end of the day, I think you are likely going to see a top 10 ETF,
top 50 ETF, AI ETF, like an AI crypto ETF, of course, and so forth rather than a single coin.
I just don't know if that's how it's going to play out.
What they're going to do is they're going to start listing these things one by one.
People are going to get burned on it because they're just so volatile when you just have one specific token.
And then they're just going to start basketing them like Jack has just said.
It's probably going to be like Coinbase listings now where things just pump on the announcement and then they sell off immediately after the listing and they go down only for a long time.
after the listing and they'd go down only for a long time yeah yeah depending on depending on
like i mean if we're if like if ethan altcoins and bitcoin like bitcoin goes on another leg
and ethan all start to rally off the lows and they start listing them maybe not you know maybe
that could be just be adding more fuel to the fire right it really kind of depends on
where they get launched, in my opinion.
If we're ripping and having a nice
couple months worth of rally
and then they just start dropping the ETFs,
if my ticker is getting an ETF dropped
after a big run, yeah, I'm selling that.
that Link East chart has me so bulled up.
Now, just really lower time frame.
Clearly, this is just drifting, right?
So is this just going to go bang, right?
Or is it going to act kind of like this like made a low drift drift drift seems as if
it's going to go and then boom pops to the upside right so does it give you this pullback to get
your bids filled or does it just go nope see you later right that's the question um but i mean
realistically what is this like a 15 swing yeah so you're you're probably better off if you want
to get exposure getting some now where
we're at and then if you drop lower on something like this yeah you add or if you take off maybe
you just have to chase a little more but you're probably better off getting a little exposure
here i might do it myself honestly i'm just gonna ape i'm just gonna ape on this shit.
Wait, wait, wait. I gotta find the meme.
I might even just carry LinkEath as a pair.
Let's fucking bet on this. Let's bet on this.
Jack, can't you trade that pair?
It's a tradable pair on Binance.
So let's say you buy the Link ETH pair and it starts ripping.
It's just like buying another ticker.
Well, if you have a link, you can sell it into ETH or vice versa.
And then you just hold the other and then obviously
it depends what you want to value your portfolio and some people value their portfolio in dollars
some people do it in bitcoin some people can do it in ease right so that's why you have lots of
these tradable ease pairs too because some people value their portfolio in ease and then they are
trying to outperform ease basically that's why you have all of the bitcoin charts too and i i
honestly like that era way more when we had a uh alt btc purse now they're liquidated i i feel like they don't really even
have a liquidity anymore yeah well i feel like it kind of you can kind of correlate the death of
alt or rather bitcoin pairs and eat pairs to like the death and volatility throughout crypto mainly
on bitcoin and eth right because if you can swap into stables uh just kind of like that natural
convexity that's built in into place on on things like bitcoin and eth right like imagine
you don't really your only safe haven is buying bitcoin or e out out of alts right you can't just go into
something that you have a high degree of certainty is just going to be pegged to the same value
yeah i i feel the end of all the btc pairs came when perpetuals were introduced well um and usd pairs in general too right because but i would say perpetuals because you you tend you
wanted to you know before people were mainly trading on spot and they were not interested
in any other product but now you can just you know 50x your altcoin so you like you know lots
of people are not even looking looking at big spot moves they are just like like you know lots of people are not even look at looking at big spot moves they
are just like yeah you know it can do 10 but if i do it on 50x leverage then uh that's it
i hope i actually hope that we do away with the 50 and 100x leverage.
People don't need to be touching that.
That was never supposed to be introduced, or not that quickly.
So much wasted capital that could have been invested in spot crypto.
They think it's capital intensive.
Those fees were too juicy for the exchanges.
Yeah. those fees were too juicy for the exchanges yeah bucket shops are going to get banned man high degree of certainty the age of or the great era of bucket shop exchanges if it's not already over it's going to come to a completion in the
next few years i do agree with this take though i think this is a good uh i i agree completely but i will
also say like 50 to 100x doesn't really fall within those uh yeah within that uh kind of like
that criteria for me just because in crypto the odds that you're going to get a 1% or 2% move on any given day, on any asset, are basically like 100%.
Not to mention that lots of the times the liquidation system is kind of broken, and you can get liquidated way before your liquidation gets hit.
We're talking about unregulated casinos, after all.
So, yeah, you need to be careful with that.
What do you guys think about
GME adopting micro strategies strategy
or should i say adopt strategies strategy well they bought like one bitcoin right
is that it i think so no oh my god just one singular bitcoin
i'm not sure man i'm just someone in the chat potentially knows
how much they bought but i think it wasn't much
yeah i think the more companies we get who are going to do the micro strategy strategy
uh i mean assuming that those flows come in in the interim or like the near term that would
obviously be bullish uh i don't know how long it'll take for them to actually implement it but
it is more by pressure eventually coming down the pipe i think sailor was saying it took him like six months you know starting with like
you know internal meetings and then discussing it to the stockholders and stuff like that
before they introduced that strategy
Do you think we see more and more companies adopt the same strategy in time?
do you think we see more and more companies adopt the same strategy in time yes
I mean, at the end of the day, everyone will face the debasement of their currency issue.
And then it will be like, what do we do with our holdings?
So I'm not sure that they will be buying stocks
of other companies because you would be uh you would be favoring you know you would be helping
your competitors so that doesn't make that much sense i do not know like and then the question is, what do we buy, right? Maybe. But again, if you were to buy something with your holdings,
then BTC is really one of the best stuff to buy
because it's just neutral against everyone in the world.
Nobody can manipulate it.
So if a company has a side capital
and it was going to buy a real estate, that's nice.
But what if you need that cash, right?
Well, it's so easy to sell Bitcoin.
Well, I do kind of think we're already like like we've probably already seen to a large degree what
sailor is doing kind of privately like i have a thesis that our next bubble is definitely going
to be popping because of private equity valuations that have functioned in the same way that micro
strategy is currently operating right like you consistently add a bunch of these assets that you can mark up that aren't really very liquid. And you can just kind
of continue to borrow against an AUM that can increasingly increases. And eventually it's
going to like all come crashing down. But I mean, micro, micro strategy is basically doing what those private equity firms are doing.
It's just kind of out in the open.
I think that's what really bothers people is that they're just kind of, I think people just would like to be unaware of how, of how markets actually seem to pump.
But that's just my tinfoil hat.
And also that's the power of leverage the power of leverage
i love that quote i love that name
yesterday i liquidated myself that's the power of leverage
what what is that one quote where he's like i had i can't even if i misquote it it's not
even it's not going to be quite as funny but he's just like talking about how he was on 5x leverage
and made five times the profit like that's the power of leverage hold on let me find it
Dude, I don't miss leverage at all, man.
I've been barely leverage trading for like the last year and a half.
Like here and there, I'll take a punt if we're at a good level.
But I remember there was a point man in the bear market where
I, I like looking back, I was in a leverage trade almost every day and just the stress,
man, like the stress and anxiety and the mood swings. It was crazy. And like, I didn't
realize until like, it took a long time, you know, it took a long time for me to
realize that like, not, you know, it's not worth it. And like, I did take an ETH long recently,
leverage long, like the first time in a while. And it's like, it's like literally probably
represents maybe one to 2% of my entire portfolio. And for whatever reason, man, like when leverage is involved, like the stress, like multiplies,
like it's almost like the leveraged slider, but like just lever the stress.
Like it's, I've been feeling it the last couple of days.
I'm like, I, this, this is a trade where I've been in profit the whole time.
You know, like I took the, I took took a each leverage long here and it's been literally
up only right i haven't even experienced drawdown this trade but just the stress that you know
leverage adds to to like it's it's insane and i i was like feeling like feeling that last couple
days like damn i was like i can't believe i did this but way way on a higher scale for like months on end like it's just he was like i took a leverage
trade just so that i can still try if i feel something i still feel it i still feel you really
learn what being a market slave is when you're in a levered position every single day that's i mean
that's absolutely a reality if you haven't traded leverage like every day or
almost every day for like a calendar year, I don't think you really understand the mental
toll that it will. It's like, it's like when somebody is a president for four years and they
get out looking substantially older in the same way, it will literally age you years.
older in the same way it will literally age you years uh i love derivatives personally uh i am
finding my happy place though kind of just trading altcoins on leverage and uh and sticking with
options for like bitcoin eth and equities that's very much my happy place options are just very it's so easy to manage risk um and play for like high upside
uh setups i don't know i mean i just much prefer them to uh to futures and i also don't have to
worry about liquidation risk which is like half the the stressor on trading like just kind of perps
on trading like just kind of perps
i feel like i think louis described it really well is because even if you make the right
leverage trade you know if you take that 2x on btc or ease even at the right time
it's just so hard to uh to manage it because if you if you are
right and it goes up you're suddenly making like twice as much money and you you can get very greedy
and then at the top you won't be selling it and it's counterintuitive because you are like i'm
up twice as i would normally be so it should be easy to take profit but in reality you're like oh
my god i'm making us this much money and i have this great entry and i need to make the most of
it and then you don't sell and very often you can round trip it um and obviously you are this amount of money up, but then it pulls back like 30% and you are down twice as much, right?
As you would be otherwise.
Or it goes down or it just waffles around your entry. psychological involvement, you would... You will make the wrong mistakes.
The wrong choices simply because of that.
Drawdown is a very psychological game.
Like this comment for example.
P&L and drawdown is entirely psychological, right?
As you kind of move around your break-even price
it doesn't really matter if you're trading any sum that's like i would even say sums that are
like as long as long as they're not like completely insignificant you're going to have some level of
stress just kind of seeing the visual of your pnl especially as it kind of waffles around your
break-even price and that stress is only going
to increase as you're as you're trading more and more of your uh of your capital um
i mean unfortunately most people are going to be trading a majority of their net worth on leverage
given that this is crypto that is not a good idea i would never advocate for that
uh maybe my past self would but uh my past self also had pretty terrible risk management at times.
Yeah, like spot, I feel nothing.
I could go through severe drawdown in a spot position and just be totally fine. I think it's just that, that risk of getting
liquidated or, you know, that risk of like, you know, just losing your money. Like, like obviously
if you buy something and it goes down, you're technically losing money, but not until you sell.
Right. So like, but the exchange really can just take that money for you from you. Um, especially
in a market that like, there's no regulations on this stuff yet.
These guys can do whatever they want.
They could hunt your stops.
They have the power to do this stuff.
I'm not claiming, oh, market manipulation,
but it's the wild, wild west.
And I've traded enough altcoins on leverage
to know that they don't like to play fair,
right. It's very hard to consistently hit winners. And I've gone on streaks where I've 20 X like
trading accounts, right? Like there's, it's very powerful, right? When you trade leverage and you
get on a nice hot streak, it is a very powerful tool, but just as fast as you could make it,
you could lose it. Uh, like I've done it three or four times where I 20X ran up leverage accounts
and pretty much got back to zero or back to where I started.
So it just is what it is.
My sweet spot, like Tom was saying, I've actually been really liking
building larger positions just on extremely low leverage,
like a 2X or a three X leverage.
I've been doing that a lot over the last month or two. And I'm finding that
I'm able to manage it well. Um, and, and, you know, it just, it's working for me,
you know, so you're using that leverage, but it's not like a 10 to 20 X multiplier.
Like you're, it's only a two X or three X, uh, levered, you know, levered position.
So it's manageable. Your liquidation isn't like two or 3% off your entry price. Like you have a
lot of wiggle room. Um, especially when you're trying to DCA into, into something. Uh, I've
been learning that, you know, I, I, I have been liking that it's been, you know, going well for
me over the last couple of so i would i would say
just like really quickly i'm sorry for interrupting you but like at least 80 percent
probably higher though to be honest of any mistakes that i've made trading have probably
come as a result of a sizing issue that is i think the single most important factor
to be successful trading is is sizing yeah maybe you didn't size big enough when you had conviction
maybe you sized too much when you didn't have any or you martingale the bad entry
it's probably gonna fall generally within those confines. Like you probably made a mistake sizing.
it's like the old saying,
if you feel overstressed or,
one of positions going against you,
that means you weren't sized correctly.
Right. So, because if you took that trade, you know, you're taking, going against you, that means you weren't sized correctly, right?
So, because if you took that trade, you know, you're taking, it's a risk reward bet, realistically,
Like you're placing that trade knowing that there's a risk that you do lose that money.
So if you do place the trade and the trade starts going against you, you start getting really stressed, you know, anxious and you start doing silly stuff that, no, your sizing was too much, right?
You risked more than you were actually willing to lose.
That's really what it comes down to, you know?
And what typically happens if you've kind of had a series of losses that were driven by oversizing bad trades is you'll have a good one and you won't have the balls to size it.
Because you lost a match in a row.
It's just like this perpetual game against yourself.
Trading is entirely mental and sizing. I think if you could focus on one thing,
trading and nothing else,
like sizing is the single most important thing.
Like imagine trying to catch a long down here on the low timeframes.
Like this is what I used to do.
Like I'm trying to catch this,
the swing long back to the upset.
then i would just get this you know for like 10 days and then it finally it finally starts to move
and i'm either out of money or like i'm just you know screw this you know it's going lower or
whatever or i take the trade again but it's way less size and when i started down here and it's
like yeah yeah just crazy stuff man but i feel like
it's something that you kind of have to learn yourself you know like we could say this all we
want and i'll go yeah yeah whatever i'm i'm i'm different you know i'll be fine it's like touching
the stove or the hot stove except you have to do it enough times to callous your hands. You don't learn after the first time.
I did find that copy pasta though, guys.
I use 6x leverage when I trade.
Because it increases my profits by 500%.
Example, you buy one Bitcoin for 10k and sell it at 50k.
Buy one Bitcoin for 10K and sell it at 50K.
You made a profit of 40k.
You made a profit of 40K.
However, if you use 6X leverage, your profit increases to 240K.
That's the power of leverage.
That was a legendary copy pasta from 2021.
And that's the initial thought process when you get introduced to leverage it's like oh my god i could multiply my size by 10 times like i'm gonna be rich
i remember what when i was first learning about how to trade leverage like literally a total noob
uh loaded up some i think like a thousand bucks
in the kucoin perps trenches and i was trading tron uh right after like kaleo had just tweeted
about it so obviously it was like sending and there was just so much realized volatility on
a lower time frame i hit market buy i think it was on 20x leverage and the second i hit market buy. I think it was on 20x leverage. And the second I hit market buy, I got liquidated.
I hit market and immediately got liquidated.
Because, again, there was just so much volatility on the chart
that it moved 5% within like one second of me opening the trade.
And there probably wasn't very good liquidity either.
I'm sure that played a role.
And I was just like, where'd my money go?
So am I long or whatever?
Do I need to click this again?
Do I need to click this again?
So how is our little investor doing?
I lost it all before I even begin.
And then I found shit coins
yeah it's like especially like on chain stuff like you don't need leverage man like you could
use a thousand bucks and do stuff on chain and make multiples like it's, you don't really need leverage anymore.
I mean, as long as, you know, on-chain stuff remains the way it is.
I don't think it will forever.
The same way I don't think leverage, leverage trading is going to remain the same forever.
But like, if you really need to have the need to like maximize your returns with small amounts of money, like risking
smaller amounts of money and just go on chain, man.
There's stuff that 10 X's to 20, 20 X's 50 X's all the time.
Um, but, uh, yeah, it's funny, man.
It's like, we're giving some back from this morning relatively flat
if only you knew your prices here over the next week i'm not terribly concerned about it
along this trend line, man.
So it's either got to, something's got to give
It's either going to be this
or it's going to be this, you know?
And then like maybe something
But I feel like something's got to give here soon.
That's what I'm betting on.
I think that's a good time to wrap it up if Tommy's ready to go.
Yes. Can you pull up the terminal for me, Louis?
Yeah. You want the pricing or just the terminal website?
God, I love reminiscing on leverage trading failures
i think if you can't laugh at your losses and trading more than i almost like i think
maybe it's a psychotic trait of mine but i almost like laugh and remember my big losses more fondly
than my wins that are rather than like I celebrate my wins at times.
Because it's just kind of like a reminder of,
of like how far you've come in a way.
Wait, why am I locked out of here?
Oh, log out and log back in.
You're on the screen though.
Let me remove so they don't see your password.
That'd be good. You're going to get hacked, Louie. Sorry. removed so they don't see your password.
You're going to get hacked, Louis.
Accidentally leaked your social security number,
credit card history, and your address.
No, you don't actually need those to use the terminal.
I might have to talk to Ed.
Well, we are running the update
so yeah maybe that's why so i'll just i'll just pull up the because bitcoin website
it's not letting me get on right now probably because the update the devs are doing something
guys we are building out more and more functionality for bb terminal so all right you can pull me up
so you can pull me up all right that concludes today's show we hope that you all enjoyed uh the
commentary that we provided the charts that we shared if you are looking for more alpha from the
team uh we do have a few ways that you can potentially do so right guys starting with
our premium discord come join the bb. We get four to five hours of calls
every single day where we talk about the market, our intimate thoughts in real time, and at
times even our positioning. So come check it out. We've also got a killer community
in there. They've been giving out amazing plays in the trenches. So it's not just the
analysts that are working hard to conquer these markets. We foster a true brain trust within that discord.
We were nice enough to discount the discord if you buy it with the DB terminal, which, as you can see, we are running an update on right at the right at the moment.
So devs are doing something.
We are building more and more functionality out every single day.
So whether or not you are an active trader trading lower timeframes, a long-term investor looking to make educated data-driven decisions for the long term,
and soon, whether or not you are an on-chain degen, we have the product for you, the go-to tool to conquer this cycle.
product for you or the go-to tool to conquer this cycle. So check that out guys. Um, next,
you know, maybe you're looking to hone your educational base or even reach trading level
mastery. We've got the BB Academy that you can come check out and learn from the team. Uh, we
give lots and lots of material on how we trade, how we approach the markets and how we analyze
things. I mean, there's really pretty much everything in the BB Academy.
So come check it out as well.
And then last but certainly not least,
maybe the volatility has been too much for you to stomach.
Maybe picking winners has proven to be difficult
during these trying times in crypto.
Well, we've got the ability for the team
to manage capital for you.
And that is the BB Wealth Management arm of the business. So if anything that I just said over the last 90 seconds resonated with you,
come check it out in the description below. And a reminder for BB Wealth Management guys,
we trade digital assets in a way that looks to capture their asymmetric history for upside
returns while also balancing the downside risk post in any financial market. But that is it for the show today. We hope that you all enjoyed it. We will be back
for another episode tomorrow to officially wrap up the week. We typically go live around 11 to 11,
15 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, Monday through Friday, whenever the New York Stock Exchange
is open. Wabi's show will not be live
today, Market Talk, as it is Thursday. And on Thursdays, we give our subscribers an extended
afternoon call. But Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, make sure to check out Market Talk
with Wabi over on X, Because Bitcoin account, as well as King Wabi's personal account. So make sure
to stay following and subscribe to both of those accounts so you can be notified, not just when we schedule those spaces,
but of course, also when we go live. Thanks again, though, guys. We appreciate you as always
for being here. Like I said, we will officially wrap up the week tomorrow. But until then,
as always, thanks again and stay safe