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vote and earn: prediction market finals 🏆 Sapience vs Worm
Recorded: Sept. 25, 2025 Duration: 0:33:24Space Recording
Short Summary
Sapiens and Worm are in a heated contest for the title of the best next-gen prediction market, with Sapiens currently leading at 67,000 votes. The discussion highlights the innovative features of both projects, including Sapiens' upcoming liquidity vault and Worm's focus on long-tail prediction markets, showcasing the growing interest and engagement in the prediction market space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Prediction market showdown contest for sapiens versus worm.
This is already getting started and starting to heat up.
If you go to jokerace.io,
you'll be able to see the contest there.
It is Sapiens versus Worm.
We're picking who is the greatest next-gen prediction market of them all,
Mirror Mirror on the wall.
And currently, Sapiens is leading with 2,500 votes.
But Worm coming in with 640.
And so the rewards pool has already doubled since we started.
It's up to 0.05 ETH.
So around, I think, about $200 so far.
Nass, do you want to invite yourself up as a speaker?
And if anyone from Wyrm...
Sorry, yeah, we have Wyrm and Sapiens there.
And Sapiens, if you can invite yourself up as a speaker as well, I can approve you.
There we go.
We got Sapiens.
And NASA, I'm going to try to invite you.
See if this works.
Twitter tends to be a little slow.
Can you hear me? Can you hear me?
Yes, I can.
Perfect.
Sapiens, did it work for you at all?
Let's try that again.
Well, I think we can get maybe started with you, Nas.
Do you want to kick us off?
Give us the regular one-minute intro on Worm,
and then Sapiens will try to get you up here too.
Sounds good. Hello, everybody.
This is Nas. We are building Worm.
Worm is a prediction market on Solana.
The way we are looking at it is like we are thinking market creation and market
resolution is very difficult so we have developed our very own LLM to help anybody to create a
creation market and also we're looking at the prediction market.
We are focusing on long tail-off prediction markets because we believe long tail-off prediction
markets are really about real events outside of sports.
Yeah, that's about us.
Perfect.
Noah, I think you're going to be representing Sapiens today.
Is that right?
Yeah, I'm here to chat.
We can also put the main account up just in case one of us needs to drop early.
Either way is totally fine.
Whatever is easier for you.
Yeah, feel free to request it.
I tried to approve it before,
but X is a bit fickle with these things.
Okay, cool. We'll try to get the Sapiens account up as a speaker in a sec.
Yeah, so for, yeah, Sapiens is a next-gen prediction market project building in the Athena ecosystem.
We just recently rolled out a Parlez product, and we'll have a liquidity vault backing it live
probably tomorrow.
And we're currently running competitions
on Arbitrum mainnet with Test Collateral
and RealUSDE on it coming soon.
Perfect.
Okay, so let's, here,
I'm just sharing those spaces out publicly. So everyone has it. Wow. This is already really taking off. Okay. We're almost at half an E now. So it's 10 X since I did the intro about a minute ago. So Sapien is currently at about 47,000 votes and Worm at 640.
votes in Worm at 640.
I will say, Worm, that creates a huge opportunity for you.
So the way these contests work is you earn from everyone who is voting after you because
there's a price curve.
So they're paying more per vote.
And so they're helping subsidize the pool.
But the real way you earn is everyone who voted for the other entry because they're
going to lose their money and you're going to get it.
So with savings, putting all this money in, it actually means that if Worm
were to win, there's actually now quite a significant amount of money to be made as well.
So this could get fun if someone decides to swoop in here. Let's focus on the actual
prediction market stuff. So I chatted with you both a bit before this about, you know,
I think some big topics across prediction markets, and obviously we've been talking about them for the
past couple of weeks. Let's start with a simple one. It feels like every prediction market is
either cloud-based or AMM-based, right? Like that's kind of the two technical trade-offs here.
What's your preference and why, Nass?
What's your preference and why, Nass?
Okay, so we prefer AMM days.
And the reason for that is we are focusing, again,
on long tail of real-life events.
And a lot of those events, they would attract a lot of liquidity.
So we believe AMMs would be more attractive for this type of market.
One, and second is, if you want to think about the clubs,
like they are already like polymarket and also,
also thinking about launching the particular market on blockchain and probably
they are going to use clubs.
So what would be really differentiators between us and them?
So that's why we are talking about AMS.
Also, one other important factor I forgot is like,
when you have order book,
the role of market makers is very important. It's extremely important.
And we know in prediction markets,
there are notoriously hard to do market making.
So that's another reason,
like a lot of prediction markets running on order book, when they go with club,
they really bleed money because market making is difficult and it's really possible.
Noah?
Yeah, I think we'll add on the main account to take this, but I can also chime in.
I'm so happy to take it.
Yeah, go for it. I'll embellish it for you.
Sure, yeah.
Yeah, so I think like the sapience approach is basically not forcing people to choose.
I think there's a lot of like market structure intricacies to consider around prediction markets
that haven't really been considered too heavily
because it's a relatively nascent field.
But I think there's like one thing you want to think about
is some kind of way to protect market makers
from toxic flow, right?
So I think like there's like various flavors of this
in normal exchanges and like Hyperliquid,
prioritized cancels.
Other people do batch auctions.
We're sort of thinking the approach here is something that is closer to like batch auctions
that give you with on-demand capital allocation for LPs.
So it's kind of like a hybrid approach.
But then we also have clubs for like the most time latency sensitive high
activity markets. So we kind of think both we think not like different prediction markets
will behave like different instruments like if the ones on Polymarket that are like what
will the price of Bitcoin be that behaves more like an options market. And then like,
you know, like, central markets like election results, those are continuous and then they're
not continuous at the end.
They move very wildly. But in the earlier phase, they're kind of moving like continuous futures markets.
And then there's like random, you know, super long tail markets of like, you know, will this happen by this date?
And will that happen by that date? That are like very volatile binaries that blow out at any moment.
low at any moment. We think each kind of demands a different type of market structure.
We think each kind of demands a different type of market structure.
Yeah, I think you covered it. Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah, I would just chime in and say to the point that like these are very heterogeneous
markets, so the appropriate like liquidity market, liquidity model and market structure
is different. Like on the long tail markets
it i i think um thinking of this more like having the liquidity profile of an nft makes more sense
uh these like sort of one-off bets that are that are pretty bespoke and um you're not going to build
up a ton of liquidity for them like that that model makes sense and that's fine and then yeah
like fed rates or whatever that might get slightly more high frequency trading
and sort of regular use,
it makes more sense to have more of an AMM
or concentrated liquidity or cloud-based model.
Nass, Nass, any response to this?
So like the point here is like,
we know different markets behave differently.
But at the end of the day, when we talk about they behave differently, it's all about how
big the liquidity in that market is.
And even now, for the example of a presidential election, that market if you speak if it passes a certain level of
liquidity like academically we know order book is the best way to handle it doesn't matter how
fluctuation of price is so my point here is like at the end of the day it's more about how much
liquidity goes to that market and that would be defined by the nature of that market or the nature of the question
that prediction market asking or predicting. So both know-how and the guy talking from Sapien
account, I understand that point but at the end of the day when the liquidity
is not high amm is the only way really to address this type of markets that's what we believe Oh, wait.
Sorry.
I was muted.
Can you hear me now? I was gonna say, let's move on. So the next
question, I think, is, you know, around permissionlessness of markets. So, you know,
part of this question is around mechanics and liquidity. And like, you know, is it possible
for anyone to come in and be able to bootstrap a market? And what does that look like in the future?
But there's also probably an ethical question here, too, right? If you start letting anyone
create prediction markets, they can create stuff like assassination markets and some
unseemly things. So I'd love your thoughts on, you know, one, is this possible? But two,
is it a good idea? And Sapiens, we can start with you.
I think ultimately, probably a lot of that should just live at the resolution layer.
Like in order to make a prediction market, you need to have something that's willing
to resolve it.
And there's a lot of different approaches.
Like I don't know if, I don't know what would happen if somebody made a market like that.
If UMA would even, if the UMA DAO would even like, you know, be willing to vote on it or whatever, like
I think it would break a lot of things.
And like, I think others like Kalshi, obviously, like very regulated has like specific KYC,
KYB entities handling the resolution.
They could obviously never do that.
So I think ultimately like that is more like the last part of what you asked is more of
a function of like, yeah, who's going to resolve it?
I think market creation can be permissionless, but like in terms of like where the end user interacts with
it, that probably needs some curation. Like who's resolving it? That probably needs more curation.
I think it's ultimately like a balance and like trying to kind of control
these different layers of the stack versus like explicitly filtering out certain
things which can like sometimes are not as binary, not as clearly, you know, yes, no.
Yeah.
So I think ultimately like it's just like different people in the community deciding
what things they want to help out with and what things they want to push.
I think in general, accelerating the ability to allow anybody to create markets helps a lot
and improves the curation process.
There just needs to be rails in place.
Yeah, I just...
NAS?
Oh, sorry.
Yeah, let's switch to NAS for...
Yeah, sorry.
Yeah, response.
That's cool.
Sorry.
Yeah, NAS?
So I strongly disagree, actually disagree actually like we are in
blockchain in the first place because it's permissionless right so if you are building
on blockchain and we don't believe in the very first principles of blockchain it's kind of like
we are just i don't know what what makes if it makes sense so we strongly believe about making everybody or making it possible for everybody to
create markets. It has to be permissionless. We have seen it in DeFi and again we are seeing it in
friction markets. The entire premise of DeFi was like okay it's permissionless, it's totally Sheldes is totally different than classic finance or traditional finance.
But the point here is a lot of times people just look at bad actors and they try to optimize the
system for bad actors or to avoid bad actors.
avoid that actors. It doesn't make any sense. We always give this example, you know, like Airbnb,
It doesn't make any sense.
We always give this example.
when it started, everyone was like, oh yeah, how can you open the door of your home to people who
can rob you and steal and kill you and all of that? Because everyone is just thinking about the
negative side of it. Yes, of course, that happened, maybe a few incidents during the history of Airbnb.
But the main point here is that the majority of people are good actors.
And we shouldn't distort the technology and optimize it for bad actors, to avoid bad actors here.
So yes, there would be assassination markets, but the question would be like, how we can avoid it?
And that's exactly why we are using LLMs.
Now we have AI, this is a new technology, and it can really help us to avoid these types of problems.
And we are against curation.
We think just like, even curation is like, oh, we are a committee, no more than anybody else.
So we have to be kind of in
between and again the same story of being an intermediary here happens again which is again
against the very very like central principle of blockchain
the bottom line is like because of some issues, we shouldn't really question the entire blockchain.
We should really find solutions for these problems.
Savians, do you want to respond?
Yeah.
If you want to take it.
I don't know if you want to take it, Noah, or I'm happy to.
Whatever.
Go ahead.
I'm going to chime in too.
I was just going to say that I think prediction markets can be a little bit different from like pure cryptography, where like, yes, like there's an objective truth.
And like we've seen a lot of cases where there's kind of can be a social layer, like the Zelensky suit was a good example, right?
And so ultimately, like, there is kind of like a social consensus that goes beyond like, you know, is something absolutely correct?
And it's like, are you even going to as a product? How are you going to handle those those nuances?
And how are you going to handle social coordination? And how much of a role do you even want that to
play in the product? Like, yes, the general ethos, I think is there and, you know, like wanting to be
permissionless and support everything. But there's also, I think, just practical considerations.
That's the only point I was trying to make.
OK, I'm glad we finally got to a disagreement.
I feel like it took two weeks.
I finally was able to get the question that got it.
So that's, yeah.
And I think it's something I grapple with all the time
as an app builder is that question as well.
So quick update on the contest right now.
Again, sapiens versus worms at jokerace.io.
You can vote and earn.
Sapiens is leading with 67,000 votes.
Worm has 740 votes.
But I will say, yesterday, Worm seemed to be, you know, a low vote until the very end.
And then suddenly there was a deployment.
So we'll see if something like that happens again.
The difference this time is with the number of votes
that Sapiens has, to try to match them at 10x the price
per vote at the end of the contest
would be quite expensive and probably a money losing
opportunity for that.
So it's going to be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Any comments on the contest, guys?
Sapiens or NAS?
It's a lot of money, Sapiens. They blow it
immediately. It's a lot of money, yeah.
So currently, points.
Yeah.
It's over half an ETH now. So yeah, it's like a little over $2,000 now here in the smart contract.
Sapiens, anything you want to say to your many fans who have been supporting you?
Thank you to the SAPIAS community. Yeah, there we go.
We clearly have a lot of high-powered Tylenol users who understand these mechanics very well.
Amazing.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Snorting the Tylenol going into the contest today.
Is the product even out there?
Is the what out there?
Is the what out there? I mean, the product.
Is it out there yet that they have these supporters?
Sapiens, yeah.
Sapiens, are you live yet?
It's live on.
Oh, go ahead, Na.
No, no, yeah.
We're live on Arbitrum.
We're currently running testnet competitions,
or mainnet competitions with test collateral,
but anticipating real USD next month.
That's right.
Worm, where are you at, Nass?
You are nice. You can create a market for just tagging your job.
Oh, that's sick. That's sick.
Okay, so I'm going to do one more broad question and then
we'd love you, I think, each to give a quick question how people can get involved and why
you're the best prediction market. But before we do that, the last big question I want to ask is
just, you know, it's really been interesting doing this kind of, you know, bracket tournament
for best next gen prediction market, because people have all defined prediction markets
totally different ways. Like there is an options market, I people have all defined prediction markets totally different
ways. There is an options market, I think, which is really what we're hearing with the meme coins.
That really was just an options market. We've heard a lot about information and the value of
information and surfacing information better as a news source. We've heard about the entertainment
value of ability to take a position on your favorite horse in the race and then for it to be more exciting.
I would love to hear, I think, from each of you just what is the value of prediction markets?
You know, like, what is it?
Is it fun?
Is it informational?
Is it, you know, just a great way to make money?
Like, like what?
If you have to boil it down, what is what is the real the real value of a prediction
market?
And that's we can we can start with you.
I would say it's all about,
but the point is,
now we have a new technology.
Are we gonna do the same as sports betting on chain now?
Or we are thinking about using this new technology
for something different,
something that we haven't had in the past.
And last year, again, election,
clearly showed to everybody these prediction markets
that people, some nerds in academia,
they were talking about it.
They have real value, real value out there.
And again, you are at the very, very beginning
of prediction markets.
It's just a crash on the surface.
What makes us excited and the real value would be something that hasn't existed in the past.
And to us is real life events.
And where you can use the cliche term of wisdom of fraud to predict something. And even beyond that, that would
be like opportunity markets. And these are the things that we are at a very, very, I
would say even day zero. That would be the real value of prediction markets, in my opinion.
And that's why, honestly,
we are focusing on this type of markets.
We think this type of markets are niche,
they are not going to be mainstream,
or they are not mainstream now.
And that's why we really want to build a tool for this type of markets to surface.
Savians?
Yeah, I actually pretty much agree with all of that.
I mean, I guess I'll just extend on like, you know,
I think a lot of what you said, you David,
like about prediction markets,
like people use those, people use regular market,
like regular financial, existing financial markets,
like for that already, like meme stocks, right?
Like GameStop or like, you know, back in the day, AMC.
It kind of already, like there's an increasingly,
like just in the last 20 years,
an increasingly like social and fun element of finance.
And I think like prediction markets
can kind of just like accelerate that trend,
but then they can also sort of bring,
you know, like liquidity and financial activity around other things that
had never been financialized at all in the past, right? It's kind of just like 10Xs or 100Xs or
whatever, the scope and breadth of how many people that can reach and how accessible it becomes and
all the ways that, you know, people can interact with them.
All right.
I think we have too much agreement here.
So we'll close this out.
We'd love you each to make a quick pitch.
Why are you the best prediction market?
And then how can people get involved?
What's the best way for them to come and start
and join your community and start earning?
And we'll go in reverse.
So Sapiens, you can kick us off.
I mean, I think like
Sapiens is all about kind of like
bringing flexibility and liquidity
to prediction markets and
kind of maximizing
that accessibility of
prediction markets
to users, right? Whether you're like a
pro forecaster or just a fund trader,
we can find ways to connect
liquidity to the user and support, you know, various like things that don't exist in prediction
markets today, right? So the first example of that, which I will show on all of these spaces,
and I'll explain what parlays are. So I don't forget, like, you don't have to remind me.
But yeah, we have parlays live with fake money on Arbitrum Midnet right now with test funds.
Parlays are conditional bets where you can combine multiple outcomes into a compounded payoff structure.
But yeah, so Sapiens, go ahead, try it out, join the Discord.
It's aimed at being kind of like the most flexible and fun, diverse prediction market infrastructure out there.
And Nath?
Form is the best because we are innovating
at the bleeding edge of future markets.
We are using AI to help people
to create future markets with resolution.
Also, we are solving some really, really hard problems
in prediction market space, like liquidity,
how small markets can be created and people can trade on them,
long tail of markets, and how we can help pretty much a lot of nerdy
things in prediction market space to come to the main stage.
Some things that again, we saw last year clearly, but it's just the beginning.
There are a lot of cool stuff in academia and nerdy people in statistics they want to
build, but there is no
infrastructure for that.
So that's why
we believe you are the best.
All right, gang.
We have our pitches in.
If you're listening
and you want to vote
and earn,
again,
go to jokerace.io
and then it's the
Sapiens vs. Worm contest.
Currently at 0.67 ETH.
And so 67,000 voters for Sapiens, or votes for Sapiens versus Worm contest. Currently at 0.67 ETH. And so 67,000 voters for Sapiens or votes
for Sapiens, 740 for Worm. But again, that does open up a huge opportunity for Worm because there's
now a lot of money in the rewards pool. So if someone wanted to vote on Worm, there is potentially
quite a good amount of money to be made. The price per vote has already gone up about 50% since we started,
but it'll end up going up 1,000% over the course of the full two hours.
And that's because of the exponential curve,
where it goes gradually at first and then suddenly towards the end.
So we'll keep watching this.
And I just want to thank everyone for coming out for the past two weeks.
Nass and Sabians, I'm so glad you both made it to the finale on a personal level because you both have been amazing speakers.
And it's just been really lovely to get to learn about your projects and
hear about them too. So I also want to extend a thank you for clearing
all the time and the energy. And this has been super fun and hopefully there'll be many ways
to work together in the future too. Especially if you ever want to do prediction markets on top of contests
too. So I'm really, really grateful for you both.
And yeah, everyone listening, jokerace.io,
feel free to keep playing
and then check out everyone's account here as well
to learn more about sapience and worm.
Thank you all.
And I'll have an update soon.
Appreciate it.
Thank you so much, David.
Thank you, David.
It was a lot of fun.
Thanks, all.
This has been a lot fun. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
