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War, Oil & Bitcoin | Market Check
Recorded: March 26, 2026 Duration: 1:12:20Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets. Welcome back, everybody.
Happy Thursday. You should know the drill at this point. Thursdays are pretty much always red,
just as Mondays are often green. I guess we'll see what tomorrow is,
but I would say this particular day should not be overly surprising. But I do think we're seeing
some pretty significant moves within equity markets right now, specifically, and we're
going to be here to talk about all of that. And of course, Bitcoin trading right near our
memetic 69K level. But before we get started, guys,
I'm Snorlax. You guys also know me as Tommy. I'm joined by Tucker and Max. We are going to
have a good stream for you. But before we can get started, guys, I'm going to ask if you guys can
hit the like button. I'm not going to bug you too much about it today. Maybe we look at soybeans
organically. Maybe someday I'll stop making a joke about it. But today is not that day for you, unfortunately. So hit the like button so you don't have to look at soybeans and you don't have to hear me make that joke again on this stream. We're always very appreciative when you guys do that. Run the like button up or just take out your frustration on the like button too. That works as well.
on the like button too, that works as well. But yeah, as far as the market goes, I mean,
really not anything too abnormal from the last few weeks. When we look at like the S&P and the
NASDAQ specifically, they're kind of still just chopping around the swing lows that we set in,
I want to say, October and November. Is it going to materialize into a larger sell-off?
Is this going to be a sweep before we potentially bottom or at
the very least give a relief rally? I think that remains to be seen, but I think the movement that
is a little bit more interesting to me today is that we're starting to see a lot more weakness
on an individual level when we're looking at the Mag 7, specifically a meta. I mean, Tucker
mentioned this before we went live. Microsoft is just pretty much bleeding every day. But NVIDIA remains pinned, right? It has not moved from
its range. Are we going to see the market finally unpin if NVIDIA is able to break its floor?
Or is NVIDIA just, are put sellers just unstoppable on this asset? We go higher from here.
We'll discuss all of that, of course.
From a crypto standpoint, I mentioned that we are trading near 69K on Bitcoin.
Still, I think just in a range. I hate to be that guy, but Bitcoin is still just in a range.
We're waiting for range resolution. Is this a bearish retest on the underside of 70, 72 K or is this, uh, you know, still kind of like
this slow grind up, uh, before we eventually break the range to the upside. Um, doesn't really seem
like anything too crazy is happening with oil right now. It is up a little bit over the last,
uh, 24 to 48 hours. I don't think the structure looks the worst.
I think we were talking about this yesterday, actually, about how that would be kind of like
a natural place for oil to bounce, but they don't really have a super strong opinion on,
you know, the Middle Eastern conflict. Because at this point, we're getting so many headlines.
It's like, what do you actually believe uh you know i almost
feel like that's by design uh really trying to create like this fog of war per se but what we
are seeing this morning is more saber rattling by trump uh poly market pricing at about a 60
chance of a ground invasion by the end of april and i do think that is notable when we are
discussing the war so those are my thoughts on the market here as we open the show, guys.
What are we seeing today?
It is Thursday after all.
So again, I'm going to reiterate that the fact that the market spread is probably not a big surprise.
When I was talking today in the VC call, I was like, guys, let's look at the numbers.
You see they are red.
What day is it today?
It's Thursday.
Tommy will be making a video.
It's a red day.
Yep.
Someday I won't have to make that tired joke,
but unfortunately, today is not that day yeah man I I don't know I think this
kind of looking around the market only looks like it's headed lower Bitcoin I
really really wanted to see 77 k hit we didn't even
get that which is
quite unfortunate volume profiles moves all the way up here
i'll i'll really like to see that i'd like to see the point of control down
there so
not a great look obviously like jackets said we do need to consider that it is
thursday
obviously but uh... look. Obviously, like Jack has said, we do need to consider that it is Thursday. Obviously.
But, I mean, you're seeing
big tech. Microsoft,
I feel like every day I look at it, it's down
only.
Google is finally letting go
of the life preserver.
Meta, just
going straight down in a straight line.
So, I don't know what Apple's doing.
Apple's green.
So interesting.
That's pretty funny, man.
That's so funny, dude.
What are they doing over there?
They didn't take out debt financing
for AI.
is very interested in Apple, man,
over the next few weeks.
I don't know. Why? very interested in apple man over the next few weeks why if qqq is going to bounce from anywhere it better be here
i really think qqq where whereas like you look at the smp and it kind of looks like well maybe
we could sweep these lows and bounce qqq to me just looks like a way more controlled bleed
i mean same with the s p right just
just every day look at this they're just walking this thing down
Are you guys ready for the Sunday night, Monday morning taco?
are you guys ready for the sunday night monday morning taco
Yeah, I was discussing that too.
That Trump likely does something over the weekend.
Like he loves to do it because he knows markets are closed.
Except crypto.
And then chickens out on a Sunday night or something like that.
Or sometimes lets it go into a Monday opening
and then chickens out on Monday.
Without fail, man.
It's like a heartbeat to the market at this point.
You are just kind of trading Trump,
which some people will say that's not the case but i feel like every week
kind of holding that thesis is becoming more and more vindicated
i have never seen a structure that looks quite like this it's it's insane
it's insane
I don't know
to the upside
when they just walk it up
it looks like the VIX
inverted but too perfectly
because we're obviously
there's a negative correlation
between equities and the VIX
we all know that
but it usually doesn't look this
mechanical
this is weird, man.
It's really weird.
Tucker made a comment before we went live.
I'll let him say it because I think he was about to.
Yeah, I was telling Tommy before the show too.
I went back and looked, you know,
I went Tommy mode and looked through the VIX history going back a long time.
tommy mode and look through the vix history going back a long time and uh i don't know that i've
ever seen exactly like a walk up like this where it just continually gets bid every single like
i don't know i really went back because like when it spikes it spikes and there's been some
where you kind of hang out up here for a little bit but like i've never really i couldn't
find a time where it really walked up like that you know so yeah it's a little it's a little scary
well i think it's either going to resolve with like a trap door on equities
or this is just like the most slow roll short bait of all time it's gonna be dramatic whatever
happens that i know for sure there's no way this long dramatic curl up on vix and curl down on
equities ends with just like oh nothing happened there's no way they chudjack us on this. There's no way. There's no way. The VIX looks like a DWF finance shitcoin before it megamoons.
I could see that.
Yeah.
Jackets, how are you feeling?
Are you still bulled up here?
Yes.
Really?
On everything or just crypto?
Definitely not on everything, but like
certain stuff, yes.
Yeah.
I think crypto has a chance for sure.
If equities keep selling the way they are and crypto
is just range bound and shopping,
I think that would be a huge
win because I think
it's fair to assume that
when equities do bounce,
whether it's a short-term
bounce or truly the bottom
kind of bounce,
I think crypto is
going to be really well positioned to fly from that relief.
But if equity start to really slide and crypto doesn't hold up here, then we're in trouble.
So right now, I think that crypto is winning and doing a great job of holding up, given what's going on.
I mean, it looks a lot better to me than a lot of stocks, for sure.
Locally, obviously, we're already 60% off the highs for Bitcoin and ETH.
But for me, crypto holding here is a win.
like great job crypto you know way to go the only thing i'm still missing while i agree is that i
Great job, crypto.
Way to go.
want to see the outperformance on actually being strong and not just not being so weak
but it's a start but i mean listen a few few months, I was discussing an SPX correction to 6.5K at minimum,
if not lower.
And people were telling me that equities will continue to be ripping.
How can I be expecting that?
Now we are at 6.5K and everyone's telling me
how equities will keep on dipping and i mean
obviously i cannot rule out a dip uh on spx like first of all this is a very strong region
second spx is very misleading on its own you need to put it in context of other equities which gives
a very clear look of this current region.
But let's assume hypothetically that SPX drops to 6k,
let's say 6k, right?
That's pretty significant drop on SPX to 6k, right?
You would consider and you'd be like,
what happens to crypto if that happens?
And let me tell you nothing.
Bitcoin is right now at 69K.
If that were to happen, Bitcoin likely drops to like 65.
Doesn't really matter.
Even if it's 60, all right?
That's the current low.
Like, who cares?
It's not really gonna go much lower anymore.
Great case example is literally the tariffiff flow where it happened literally you had even
bigger drop than you would have in this regard and uh bitcoin back then barely retested its prior low
so i think things are getting more than uh more than finished obviously the world is kind of
waiting up for this middle east conflict. Yes, they'll drag it.
Yes, they'll do 20 announcements a day saying that the Middle East conflict is getting solved.
Then it's not getting solved 15 minutes later and we are nuking Iran.
And then 15 minutes later, oh, you know, they are begging us to make a deal.
And then 15 minutes later, oh, we are, you know, nuk us to make a deal and then 15 minutes later oh we are you know
uh new nooking them again or something so um the markets really like like they are trying to
just confuse it all um and you as a all of us as a retail trader all we can do is is uh work with
do is work with you know the market in a technical term as we always have plus
obviously the understanding we have so yeah I'm not really worried and I do
remain to be bulled up at current prices or like bulled up? As I said before, I view this as a bottoming process
in crypto.
And if it's not, then obviously invalidation's pretty close
and then you're going to Gulag.
But you're talking about World War III in that regard,
in my opinion.
Yeah.
I do think the headlines creating like a pseudo fog of war is entirely intentional.
They want nobody to know what's going on.
Oh, yeah.
By just flooding.
Isn't it called flooding the zone?
Flooding the zone with information.
That's what it feels like to me.
I mean it's in best interest for Iran to try to present themselves as like you
know unbeatable trying to present themselves that they are not making any
deals to keep the oil prices higher and make their negotiations stand bigger while at the same time for trump
it's very beneficial to to be to be sort of like persevered as that that he has to close this
immediately which he obviously does um and so both both countries here has an incentive, in my opinion, to close this rather sooner than later.
Trump cannot afford a longer conflict, but Iran cannot afford it too.
Because if it were to go into a longer conflict, then that just evaporates Iran from the ground of the earth pretty much.
You know, like, make no mistake.
I think the hard part for iran though
is that they've suffered catastrophic losses so far so they're kind of like already at this i view
it as kind of like this point of no return where if they do let off the gas i mean who's going to
be more able to fight again it's probably not the end of the war if they do say like okay yeah we're
done for right now because they know america at some point is probably going to come back and keep hitting the well.
So for Iran, it's like, yeah, I do think you're you're probably at this point of no return where.
Yeah, I mean, look, Polymarket, at least yesterday, I haven't checked this morning, it was priced in and like 59 percent odds for a ground invasion by the end of April.
Which, you know, if you listen to Trump speak, it doesn't really seem like,
that seems like it would be overpriced if you're just explicitly listening to Trump.
But I think, I mean, as we know, Polymarket does tend to have a pretty good finger on the pulse of these things, albeit a little bit more reactionary than usual. But that, I just
checked, guys. It's up to 63%.
For Ground
Invasion? Yeah.
Yeah, that's because
they were apparently like insider wallets
buying it or something.
Yeah, I mean, I
wouldn't... Isn't the chance of like a
nuke being used in April more likely than,
I don't remember what it was, something dumb?
I don't even know if there's a market for that.
Oh, no, there's definitely.
I mean, by definition, markets work in a way that, like,
at the bottom, everyone must get bearish.
And you always think
it's not gonna happen to you but it usually does happen to to most of us and i suppose it takes
years to be able to to spot these uh from experience because i mean you you need people
to sell at the bottom right like that that's how the market works so so at each bottom it's it's
gonna feel like it's the end of the world it feels like it's gonna extend many times like some some
of these comments that i read right like for example this war is very far from over right
these are the exact same comments that i read through covet the exact same comments that I read through COVID. The exact same comments I read through tariffs.
It's like, how can you be bullish now, Jackies,
that the world is, like, people are literally closed at their homes.
Economy is just stagnating. And we do not know how long this is going to take.
Like, literally this exact wording.
We do not know how long this is going to take.
Boom. Bottom market up. like literally this exact wording we do not know how long this is going to take boom bottom mark it up I've been through these situations too many times by now so everyone's up to their own to experience it themselves I didn't learn the first time myself either
also with this the draft age is not 41 the draft age i think cuts off 26 27 it's not draft it's not draft it's like to enroll in the military you know the draft age is like
what 27 28 i think it's i think it's 27 or 26 because i'm gonna be safe in about a month
good luck over there i'm safe in a month i'll send you some beef jerky on the battlefield oh
i actually i it might be 25 or 26 i might already be safe i'm not gonna lie um
tommy i think because you just got injured and whatever you're probably good i think so too
blessing i guess thank you for destroying my body.
Tommy, you might be disqualified for mental reasons because you trade
digital currency.
Amazing.
Whatever gets me out of it, man. What's that
meme where it's like, show me your
like...
He's like, don't shoot. I'm like...
I'm retarded, yeah.
Prove it.
Prove it. It's like, I'm retarded. Yeah. Yeah. Prove it. Prove it.
I hold E.
It's like how I'm going to act when the recruiter comes to my house.
It is like a really unfortunate thought for me to think about, though, because i have a lot of friends that are like
i mean i i know college grads that are super optimistic about like or were super optimistic
about job prospects that now cannot find a job and also are simultaneously very worried that
they might get drafted into a war that they may or may not believe in. So, yeah.
Maybe, you see, Manish, this is exactly the difference
that I'll say that others won.
It could be that this time is different.
And I said this plenty of times. Like, we could be heading in World War III
and there are nukes indeed.
But at that point, point first you pretty closely
know where you are invalidated first and second it doesn't really matter because everything's
gonna go so much more down like i i just find it crazy that some people think that you you will be
able to buy bitcoin at 48k and it's gonna reverse from there
like if you love bitcoin at 48k you will love it at 20k at perhaps lower so
yes perhaps this time is different right but if it it's like the dinosaurs right
they they've been looking at at the sky for millions of years.
And I know that Tucker thinks the dinosaurs are not real,
but let's assume they were.
And so they were looking at the sky
and saw lots of probably falling stars or something,
or comets, right?
I'm not sure it's in English.
And they were like, oh, look, that's the end of the world, right?
And it wasn't for millions of years.
And then one day, it was the end for them.
But even if, you know, you are correct, it was like truly the end of you.
And it didn't really matter, right?
And that's what I'm saying.
So, like, perhaps this time is different.
And everything kind of goes to zero here, more or less.
You know, and you experience your great depression of this current time.
It could be.
And I'm not saying that this doesn't happen.
I'm saying if it does, you know where to cut things
and it goes way lower.
and it goes way lower.
But if it's not different,
But if it's not different,
then the only other option is to the top right corner.
What do defense stocks look like right now
i'm kind of curious uh what was a good one for the i i think palantir is cooked let me just say
that but everything else yeah like uh ita i want to say is the etf dorito brought to my attention like two months ago
it's up a lot it's up a lot it's come down a lot though
well not that much is the time to bid defense stocks a few months before the conflict or is
it when the conflict breaks out i'd probably say the former yeah for sure probably
don't want to short a defense stock uh boots are going on the ground yeah i mean the conflict's
already broken out like i think i mean anybody buying it now is late to the defense trade
what do you think about lmt? LMT, Lockheed Martin.
You like this one, right, Jagus?
Yes, I've been long on it.
From approximately like 415 on this recent move.
I'm still waiting for the last
profits to get hit.
Kind of blue
bowling me here.
It's a crazy chart.
Yes, I think
Burry is still holding the Palantir short.
I want to say his shorts were for early 2027.
He had the...
I think he had like 50 or 60 strike on Palantir.
Some type of shit I would do. I mean, if you are also expecting Bitcoin to go like 40Ks, you're expecting something
that's never happened before first, which is trading significantly below the cost of
production of Bitcoin.
And like you're basically like saying or hoping that there will be a death spiral, which again, I'm open to any scenario.
Like, people say that, you know, stuff isn't possible, but we have to, like, anything is first, but obviously the probabilities matter of that outcome.
Anything is first, but obviously the probabilities matter of that outcome.
What do you think about Mara selling like a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin?
I don't think they did it here, but I think it's occurred over the last few months.
Yeah, I mean, that's very typical of any bottom, right?
Like you get a minor capitulation.
Each bottom was like this when the market squeezes out like the market
especially like a commodity which uh which bitcoin is a digital one not only you know
we just got the sign by the us government but it's pretty known uh each each bearish trend
or bear market the it squeezes out leverage, it squeezes out weak hands,
and it squeezes out minors.
And when all have been squeezed, the market runs out of sellers and turns around.
And any commodity can trade around its production cost.
It squeezes out weak minors, but doesn't really trade much more lower than that. And
then what differs is how much to the upside it diverges from or extends from the cost
of production.
It's funny to me that they're green today. It's like layoffs.
I know, Dorito, but you're expecting 40ks right and i'm saying
that if you expect 40ks you basically need to expect 20ks that that's what i'm saying
like you're not getting 40ks without 20. really i agree with that
i mean that's so That's crypto reflexivity.
Sorry for interrupting you, Jackis, but it's never going to be at the level you want to bid.
Like, why would price stop at 40s or like 45, right?
Like, generally 40s.
I'm saying it's...
Like, you can expect a World War 3 here here and you can expect stuff to go you know close
to that close to zero and into a spiral but and it's fine i think it's low probability and i don't
think it's much worse like betting on that outcome but sure why not like at some point in one time in hundreds of years, it will happen.
But it's...
How about that right there?
Not possible?
Yeah.
Okay.
If 48k is like a 10 stands wick, then sure, that can happen, right?
Like 10-stance, leverage wig.
But the problem is that we've already wiped out
all the leverage.
So why would a 10-stance wig happen, right?
I think if you were to go down there,
that price accepts down there.
It's a tradable, like it trades there.
like it trades there.
It's not just a wig, not just a leverage.
I kind of think that...
I don't think we'd ever see a two-handle.
But I definitely think that like sub-40 is possible.
So 20.
Well,
here's kind of my reasoning for it is
if you draw,
if you draw a horizontal line on like the bear market range high right there,
bear market range high,
what?
Right there.
Yeah.
I think that's a super obvious level that i'm not so
confident we would go to on top of that tucker can you draw another line on the low set right
after the etf went live this one like right there yeah exactly so i think that line the top one right there that would put all bitcoin etf buyers
underwater every single one of them um that means like ibit makes a new low and then the line below
that is like mega demand right you basically have like a year-long accumulation that led to
a bull market so i feel like that's kind of your slot right there.
I think that would probably be your slot.
And we would most likely front run going back into the bear market range of like sub 30K.
Now, there are some things that would change my mind.
Like if we saw Michael Saylor's yield product starting to implode
when we're down there, right. Then I would think at that point, um,
okay, we're, we're about to have like a major imminent implosion and like things are going
to get way worse. So like, there are a few events that I can think of
that would maybe change my mind
to like, alright, we're going to do a full cyclical
retrace.
But I think
barring some
crazy
extinction event
for somebody,
I think we would
most likely bottom between,
you know, let's just say 30 and 40.
I don't really think we'd go back
into the bear market range,
but we'll see.
You know, we'll see.
And also that slot right there
would be pretty much in line
with diminishing returns to the top side
and also diminishing drawdowns in bear markets.
Like last cycle, I think we pulled back upper 70%, like 75 to 78, something like that.
So this cycle, that would be, I think, a minus 70 something percent pullback.
So I think that would fall pretty much in line with every bear market being slightly less shitty so that's kind of my
logic for if we do get that next leg down and we're gonna puke from here like that's probably
what you're looking at i mean yeah we're only down 52 from the high that would be historic if
the bottom was in i mean that would be would be, but we also have to consider
maybe this time is different.
It's possible.
But it would be a severely less dramatic bear market
than what we've seen in the past
if we were to bottom here,
which would be awesome.
For the bottom to be in, I would like to see
Devol enter a downtrend.
Definitely.
I hear these words from so many people right now.
Everyone's telling me, we are definitely
going to 48, 55k.
We are like, there is a zero chance
we don't sweep the 60k we are for sure going there
it's guaranteed it's you know where i heard that 14k was promised like it was a given it's gonna
come like for sure like there is zero chance we don't hit 14k i mean right
don't need 14k i mean right he retracts it he retracts it jackus let's retract he takes it
back the definitely part that's what he said yeah but it's literally what people are using these wording, even if you just retract it.
Let's see.
Ooh, I like that now now this is probably a bad dream bear no imagine bitcoin's right well see this is interesting this is a really interesting scenario
because i look at this i look at bitcoin and then I look at Bitcoin dominance. Tucker, maybe you could pull it up next to it.
Bitcoin dominance to me still, I know it's crazy to even try to analyze it at this point.
It still looks like it wants to go down to me.
It still looks bearish to me, high timeframe. I think destiny for this chart would be, you know, sub 45% at some point.
Maybe it's years from now. I'm not going to try to even time it because this chart has just been
hanging on for so long. But that's a really interesting thought. Like ETH BTC never rallied.
We never had alt season. I think there's more contagion in Bitcoin than altcoins because
it performed so well this cycle. So many institutions got involved. I said this before.
I think Bitcoin is going to have a worse bear market than a lot of altcoins. Think about all
the institutions and top blasters. Who were the top blasters this cycle? It wasn't just like
wealthy people. It was like guys raising money for Bitcoin and then introducing unnative yield to the blockchain.
Think about that.
Bitcoin's probably going to have a worse unwind than altcoins.
That's not crazy to say.
I know it seems crazy based on what we've seen in the past.
I know it seems crazy based on what we've seen in the past, but I think it could take a lot longer for Bitcoin to recover and make new highs because it has more baggage.
It has more potential contagion than altcoins, which did literally nothing all cycle.
There's no contagion because nothing happened.
Literally nothing happened.
There's no amazing DeFi Ponzi to unwind this cycle.
There's nothing.
Okay, meme coins.
That doesn't matter.
They're small Forex groups is what they are.
Like, they'll just trade when they're, you know, when they're LP, which is, you know, token ETH denominated.
When ETH pumps, then you'll see a rebalancing and a repricing of the meme coin valuation.
There's no contagion there.
That's small.
That's what I'm, I don't know.
I think there's something interesting coming.
Like, regardless of what Bitcoin may or may not do,
or like three months out, whether we make new lows or not,
this Bitcoin dominance chart is telling me
that something interesting is going to happen.
And I don't know what it is.
It's either like Bitcoin going way lower than we expect and all it's just like staying floored out.
Or everything kind of holds here and bounces, but like Bitcoin is just kind of anchored a bit.
a bit and altcoins really pop off i don't know but bitcoin dominance is telling me
And altcoins really pop off.
I don't know.
probably better to not be positioned overweight bitcoin just given how that chart looks
i guess it's possible to see it move up anything is i i've been looking at it saying it's going to
roll over for a while look at that thing and it hasn't it's been like a year of kind of what looks like distribution and it
just hasn't moved. But I think if it eventually does give out, it's going to be like a full-blown
trapdoor. And I guess my closing thoughts on this is I just hope and pray that it doesn't give out and trap door off the back of
Bitcoin literally imploding and MSTR becoming like a force seller and like absolute contagion.
I hope it's the fun scenario of the Bitcoin dominance chart finally decides to give out
and trap door and we can get some major altcoin bounces but i don't know you know
what like world war three trump you know who knows who who the hell knows you know i guess
powell's out of office in may right maybe the new guy's just gonna come in and be a trump puppet
you know slash rates immediately flood the market with liquidity,
you know, who knows, but this Bitcoin dominance chart is telling us that something is going
to happen at some point.
The market was actually betting on a much bigger Trump puppet to be appointed.
Kevin Walsh was actually like a surprise to the market because he is not as dovish as the market expected.
Sorry?
They wanted Hassett.
Yeah.
So Kevin Warsh is pretty reasonable.
There was a comment, by the way. honestly sorry i think warsh is probably my least favorite
pick just because his response to the gfc was basically to like not cut rates not to help banks
not to kick the can down the road.
Yeah, but that's one thing which you, there's one thing which you say and the other is what
you do, obviously.
So lots of politicians, like lots of politicians and, you know, when you are a Fed something,
you, whether it's chair or member or whatever, right?
Like we all know there is one thing to say something
and the other is what you're going to do.
It's real.
I mean, Paul was also saying that they are not going to hike
and inflation is under control.
Transitory.
Transitory.
We know how it ended up hiked in 60 years.
As I literally laugh at grocery bills on a weekly basis.
Yeah.
Anyways, I wanted to touch one more time about this comment.
ETS need to be underwater.
Brother, they are.
They've never been more underwater than they are right now.
Like by a large margin this this is the biggest stress test to to etf holders because the etf
purchases have been gradual and most of the purchases came around 100k so right now you
have the most uh unrealized losses on ETF buys.
So everyone's underwater, miners are underwater,
we are at cost of production, leverage is wiped out,
you name it.
I mean, the thing is, right,
and I think this is the reason what we are saying is
you cannot drive, again, Bitcoin's digital commodity.
People forget the basis of it.
the basis of it.
Sailor himself can buy 22,000 Bitcoin, slightly more, in a single week.
That's literally all miners' new coin issuance in about 45, 50 days.
And there is way more buyers than just him.
95% of the Bitcoin is already out there there is only going to be five there is only five percent left of new bitcoins to be mined
in the next hundred years um futures can try to drive this uh the prices of Bitcoin lower. And they are trying to do that.
But we are not seeing Bitcoin going lower for that very reason,
because there is just so much spot interest in the asset right now.
We are seeing the prices to halt and the funding being so negative on Bitcoin.
Again, the largest negative period of funding since FTX bought them.
We are seeing that because the sellers ran out of coins to sell.
What am I trying to convince here?
Like, shortest market, right?
The squeeze will be amazing.
Pth A not looking great hype still at 40 bucks basically yeah
it's the funniest coin ever
i do like i love i i do kind of love the hype strength man
as somebody who doesn't have exposure to it either long or short i like to see I do like, I love, I do kind of love the hype strength, man.
As somebody who doesn't have exposure to it, either long or short, I like to see the hype strength.
Coinbase is cooked, man.
Oh, it looks terrible.
I still think the biggest thing Bitcoin needs to reenter an uptrend is to kind of like reinvigorate the short bull mechanism, which is kind of like a really boring take.
I know when we're talking about Bitcoin,
but the bull case is that it's been institutionalized and it just starts stair-stepping higher, right,
up and to the right over time.
Volatility has been directly correlated with market downside
since the October 10th doom candle so I think you need to see Dvol
re-enter that high time frame multi-year downtrend in the same way that we saw throughout 2023 2024 and 2025
because i think i think we're seeing like a squeeze on positioning right it's not about like
it's a very different it's very different than previous cyclical unwinds i think
because you do have like lots of buying that's occurred
because you do have like lots of buying that's occurred you've had lots of puking that's
but i think that we have thus far seen the biggest players in the market who primarily
benefit from just kind of that natural short volatility trade like they're kind of getting wrecked miners micro strategy coinbase
it's not a coincidence these are kind of leading the downside that so far
and i think devil is kind of like a visual representation of the squeeze that's being put on What does ethdvol look like, Tucker?
What's that, Tucker?
It's just ethdvol.
It's literally ethdv's literally people yeah not original
i don't know it's kind of like iffy it's at range highs
yeah to just quickly to further you know answer this, ETF need to be underwater.
This is your ETF being totally underwater right now.
You are way more underwater than you were during the tariff flows.
And this is an older screen from, I think I was sharing it sometimes late February
so that really tells you lots of stuff by the way notice on the blue line, is that there's been lots of selling, you know, the blue line, again,
lots of selling recently since the highs, but generally the holdings are way higher of the ETF
than they were during, you know, pre-tariff highs. So it's sort of like as if uh bitcoin was trading like in terms of of the
holdings right it's sort of as if bitcoin was at 110k basically that that's what the that's the
majority where etf buyers bought up right like around that price region so they are getting stress tested to the tits right now
and heavily underwater
but lots of these lots of these etf buyers they will they are not buying with the vision of
They are not buying with the vision of holding the asset for a year or two.
They are buying to hold it for five, ten years.
And many of them are not even thinking about it like technically.
They are just holding it because they want to have an exposure to the asset class.
They just put 3-5% of their portfolios in and that's all.
They just want to own. They don't care about the prices. At least from that short-term
perspective.
Boomers are leveraging against their houses the pokemon cards
remind me that to me but uh barry i i i kind of agree that like there is more opportunity
and i think even ease alone than it is in bitcoin from here right don't get me wrong but uh yeah imagine
though it where you can uh where you can tokenize your pokemon car and then leverage against it to
buy imagine imagine did you i saw a headline this morning that somebody is taking crypto as
collateral for mortgages i fannie may not for it was fannie may yeah fannie may yeah which is
actually huge news but the i think the issue with it is from the little bit of research i did i had
like two minutes before the show is that you you're going to have to post your crypto as collateral, like in a
traditional custodial way. You can't just be
like, yeah, I have like a million dollars of crypto. It's going to be like, there's going to be
a third party that has to custody it for you.
And then I have a feeling, I can't confirm this part,
but I think the issue with it is
if somebody posts crypto
as collateral for a house
to help with like a down payment
or just to get a mortgage
one, they're going to
juice your interest a bit
they're going to charge you an extra 100 or 200
points easily because they can
and then the other issue that I think
is probably going to come about
with that is that crypto loves to just nuke. So at the top of a bull market, people are going to be
posting crypto as collateral for a house, which means they're not going to be able to sell it,
I presume. And then crypto is going to nuke and then the bank's going to be underwater on the
note. And they're going to be like, oh, we don't have enough collateral for your home anymore.
You're in violation of your loan.
And then basically,
they're going to mark to market the value of the home
against your collateral or however it's structured.
And then you're probably going to either have to post more money
to keep the house
or you're basically going to lose the house.
So I don't know the details of it.
I'm just kind of thinking through like how bad it can get.
Like I love the innovation side of it, but I think the big issue with crypto still being collateral for anything is that it just literally does not hold its value.
for anything is that it just literally does not hold its value.
And this is also a problem with it is that you can mark to market the value of crypto
every second.
You're not supposed to be able for a residential home, which is not an investment.
It's somewhere you live.
You're not supposed to be able to mark to market the value of the place that you live
24-7.
And if that was the case, right. Even right now, man, people are
putting down 3% on homes, right? Are you telling me that there've been homes that haven't dipped
more than like three or four or 5% in value in the past couple of years? They have, there's people,
there's banks that are underwater on those mortgages right now. You can get a house for a 3% down payment.
You can.
3% down.
And you have to buy mortgage insurance, which is like a little bit every month.
It's minimal.
But that's the thing, though.
It's like let's say you borrow 97% of the home's appraised value.
Your home goes down 4% in value.
Now the bank is 1% underwater on the home.
Right? So it's like, they're kind of just ignoring that, right? So if the market ever
gives a little bit, the bank is underwater on that home. They don't have enough collateral.
They don't have enough anything in that home to get their money back.
So I'm just like, with these crypto loans, it's going to get worse money back so i'm just like with these crypto loans it's
going to get worse like if they're really going to do that it's going to get worse because
the little bit of recourse that they do have is crypto which is if it goes down like then they
have they're not going to be down one to five percent on the note they're going to be down
30 40 50 on the note. I don't know.
I like the idea and concept,
but I'm just like,
they're going to fuck it up first and then they'll fix it eventually.
We'll see.
Jackis is too bullish.
Jackus is too bullish.
Arizona is going to implode.
I hope not.
My brother lives out there.
Arizona will soon sink back into the earth.
Joking, obviously.
I love Arizona, but it doesn't need to be priced like California.
Which it is.
Great place to spend a weekend, but...
Mega quick, but only prayer that was good right right can you can you put it back on
which mega quake one yeah
isn't prometheus coming back today? He's coming back tomorrow.
I don't know if he'll be.
It'll probably be like late at night or something, but yeah, tomorrow.
Wait, when you guys fly to Thailand, you actually go across the silent ocean, right?
The Pacific?
I'm not sure how it's called in English, but like...
Yeah.
I'm going to...
Yes.
Yeah, it's Pacific.
I feel like the Atlantic is the quiet ocean no no i don't know why but in
czech we call it like you know like tiki ocean silent ocean or quiet ocean not sure but uh yeah
pacific so you go over there right because when we go to thailand we go over through dubai actually lots of the times and currently there's
lots of problems with that my dad is actually kind of kind of that right yeah my dad is trapped in
dubai right sorry not in dubai in thailand as well because he he kind of cannot come back home
but he was like it if i have to stay here another two months I
will I haven't been to Thailand but like there's a more Asian countries here over
the next two years specifically Japan of course money of course Next few years. Specifically Japan.
Of course, Manish, of course.
I'd visit Hong Kong.
I pitched that to my mom and she was like,
I'm not going near China. Come scale Mount Everest. come scale mount everest yeah my uh my my bad leg would definitely end up dooming me on everest
it's not even that bad anymore but not taking any chances man trust me i don't know england
i'm not good speaking england
anyways guys i get uh i get around as i was typing see you chef yeah guys
japan shorting
japan shorting oil i mean it makes sense because they got to keep yields
down.
Because if yields
blow out, the yen blows
out. And Japan is
absolutely cooked if that happens.
I mean, dude, every world leader
in the world is
shorting oil one probably.
I still don't know if that's going to make a new high.
I don't think so.
I don't know what to think about oil.
Send it to 200, bro.
200?
I would not be shorting oil.
I would say that. Why is anyone shorting oil?
Why would you short oil?
It's going higher, bro.
You buy the first liquidation after a parabola
for one new highest we'll see maybe not 200 but i was expecting oil to range but
if it's gonna go for another, it might do it from here.
If we break the high at 120, it's going to get a little spooky.
It's going to go crazy.
Send VIX. Send it.
Oh. Oh.
Ones that I need to nuke are nuking.
New lows for iBit coming soon.
iBit looks pretty ominous right there.
I'm not going to lie.
I'll see you at the opening tick at 27.
I do have some May protection, as you know.
It's kind of just been chopping around, but I do have some.
Dude, I have some IBIT and MSTR protection.
If we go down there, I'm buying an island.
Let me put it that way i i think mstr is just like basically inverse devil at this point pull up mstr tucker pull up
mstr okay okay inverse evil i've got i've got me a little bit of protection let's put it that way
but i mean it's it's out of the money stuff, I mean, it's out of the money stuff, right?
Like, it's really far out of the money stuff where, like, I'm basically banking on just, like, absolute pukage across the board.
And if it hits, it's going to hit so hard.
It's for like middle of May.
It's for, like, middle of May.
Yeah.
Yeah.
But I feel protected knowing that like if we do get a doomsday scenario,
like it is going to be an absolute broken ATM machine just spitting out money,
which is fine.
That's how I like to play options.
You know,
small dings if you're wrong,
broken ATM if you're right.
broken ATM if you're right.
So we'll see.
So we'll see.
I think software and Microsoft
are kind of leading the way for crypto right now.
Can you elaborate on that more?
Do you have a fractal for me or no?
No, I just think like IGV and Microsoft are,
Microsoft's breaking the lows of this shoulder
and IGV looks like it's going to do it soon.
I think they're very similar charts.
How the hell is Apple so strong though that's that's extremely funny to me you remember i was saying a while ago i'm like this is the last coin i'm not quite sorry the last coin the last stock
i was short it's apple well it's the asset with the least amount of embedded leverage in it.
They just never got into AI really,
and so they didn't have the AI float.
Well, somebody said it before.
They'll just end up buying somebody.
Yeah, Mac.
Plodbots and Mac minis are holding this chart up.
That's it.
That's all it is.
It's going to puke.
Like, I do believe it will puke,
but I think relative to the rest of the Mag 7,
it's probably going to hold up significantly better.
And I think maybe part of it has to do with, like,
they're not as involved in AI,
and they're not overexposed to these data centers and like making crazy capital investments.
Yeah.
They're kind of, they've just been staying in their lane, like making products the whole time.
Granted, their products have been boring as hell.
And I'm annoyed that the lack of innovation, but their lack of innovation in a situation like this might actually save them.
We'll see.
Stay in their lane.
Nothing wrong with that.
Yeah, exactly.
They weren't, they didn't really catch the AI bloat wave. So they're not going to unwind as hard, hopefully, for them.
But...
I don't think they will, but I do think
if the market does
sell off aggressively from here, they're not going to be
immune to it either.
I did not know Apple made their own chips.
That's interesting.
You have the M5
or whatever it is.
They used to only use Intel
chips.
They started making their own.
That's very interesting, actually.
I heard they're going to change the charger
again on the phone for next time
or whatever.
What do you guys think about
elon and like potentially making chips or more american chips i know he has a company that's
i believe specifically going to make chips like another one make chips what chips does he make
now i don't think they do it yet,
but I want to see a headline about that this week.
Probably things like Tesla and SpaceX.
They have their own chips for Tesla?
I don't think so.
But I think that's going to be the goal.
Yeah.
Well, they're making robots now full on so i know i saw a video this morning of um a robot not by um not by optimist but i think it was unipath
it's like 13 000 bucks and it'll do some household tasks for you. And I'm, and I'm watching it.
I'm like,
I kind of like doing those tasks,
man.
They provide for a person who works from home.
Like myself,
I kind of like waking up,
making the bed,
making myself like breakfast,
lunch,
or whatever it is.
And kind of doing.
There's a white joke in there somewhere.
I can't find it quite yeah
13 000 for doing chores is that what it is
and basically yeah i mean that's what the video made it seem like
dude you could hire a cleaning lady or something for like a hundred bucks that's a really good
lady or something for like a hundred bucks a really good point what are you talking a 13 000
cleaning lady we have to ask about the practicality of humanoid robots right now yeah we do
they're exciting you know i think it's a cool concept that will be
very relevant more probably in the future than right now.
That's just my opinion.
Yeah, I just don't know what they do around the house.
Bring me a sandwich or something?
Is that the point?
I mean, it made him a salad or something like that.
I mean, it did more than that.
I don't want to underplay it. It's really impressive that a robot is doing all these tasks but yeah i don't know i just kind of i enjoy doing
these tasks throughout the day otherwise i'm just doing nothing but work and sitting around that
apartment yeah same i mean they're in their current form they're built for when humans are just sedentary like literally
that's yeah and like i don't want i don't want a robot to be my mommy i i like responsibility yeah anything else we want to talk about guys from a market standpoint
i mean we could just paint bearish fractals all day.
That'd be kind of fun.
Why not, right?
Believe me, I could do that.
But I'm not going to do that today.
Eh, then I'm good.
It's probably a good spot then to wrap up
the show.
Oh my god.
This is good. it's probably a good spot then to wrap up the show oh my god it's good can we just stream until the market closes maybe another day not today though if the market's just
going like batshit maybe someday we do that but we tried to do that when bitcoin was about to break
100k remember say we were there for like two and a half hours it didn't break out that night was
it that night that it did it it was that night yeah i remember i was watching it on my phone on
the one second time frame with my wife and i was like watch this and it just hit 100k
like it like went to 99.99 and then wick down and like did that for 10 minutes and i was like
just hold on just hold on watch and then it finally broke it and it was up yeah
dude i have a screenshot from when ETH broke 2K from the
first time on my phone.
Because I was so excited.
Up or down, though?
Okay.
I love the old screenshots
that you find of old
coin prices. It just never gets old.
I can immediately recall
that time period of my life when I saw those prices. It just never gets old. I can immediately recall that time period of my
life when I saw those prices.
Yeah. It was a simpler time, man. I have some pretty funny old screenshots of crypto.
Yeah. Just like certain altcoins in my portfolio, like at certain prices and
where my market gone a vex over 100 solana like 250 screenshots those went so hard
they took my market they did they took they took the soul of those altcoins, man.
Yeah.
The L1 trade.
But, all right, guys.
Remember, it's like there's all these, like, ETH killer narratives.
And then it turns out ETH actually just killed itself.
Didn't need to be killed.
I remember Suzu pontificating about ETH and how the gas fees priced out retail and how selfish that was and how ETH people not realizing that's a huge problem.
It's exactly why ETH is underperforming the L1 trade.
And then obviously AVAX went down like 95%. Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, it's a good example though.
This is, I guess like,
I don't want to ramble on too long
when I know we're trying to wrap it up,
but it's like, it does go to show
there is a very long,
a lot can happen in a short period of time with markets
and markets have a long timeline.
A lot of things can occur over the years for some
of these assets. So always got to be humble. Indeed. But that's a good spot for us to wrap
up the show, guys. Hopefully you enjoyed today's episode of Market Check. We did a little bit of rambling, a little bit of laughter, and of course, a lot of alpha, as always. But if you enjoyed the stream,
you want to watch us again, or maybe you want to hate on us again, because there's always a
handful of you that like to do that too. We do these shows throughout the week, Monday, Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday, if the New York Stock
Exchange is open. Our typical start time for Market Check is around 11.30 a.m. Eastern Standard
Time. So yes, we will be back for another episode tomorrow to officially wrap up the week.
And yeah, see you all off on your weekend. But before we can do that, obviously, we have another
show later this afternoon. And throughout the week, guys, you can catch Market Talk hosted by King Wabi. That is an X Spaces
hosted, like I said, by Wabi, but through the Because Bitcoin account on X. So make sure to
stay following and subscribe to both. Sorry, I've got something in my throat. I'm going to guess
it's the coffee. So you can be notified, not just when we schedule those spaces,
but of course, also when we go live.
But that's it from us.
We hope you guys have a great rest of your day, a great rest of your week.
Hopefully we see you tomorrow as well.
But if not, or until then, thank you again as always.
And of course, stay safe, guys.
