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WAS TODAY THE BOTTOM?
Recorded: April 9, 2025 Duration: 3:57:27Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Well, well, well.
We are back again.
Guess who's back?
Stocks on Spaces.
Twelve hours ago, I closed out yesterday's space, and here we are again.
We had a massive space yesterday.
I expect today to be no less with all kinds of things going on.
90-day pause on tariffs.
How about that?
Bunch of headlines coming out.
Evan, I'm going to throw it straight to you,
let you jump in here, say something,
whatever you want to say, celebrate, victory laugh,
whatever we're doing right now.
I think a lot of us are excited.
A lot to talk about today.
I'm excited for this space.
Yeah, we're going to jump into this one right away.
I do want to warn people.
We have a, well, I want to warn people we have a well i want to
warn people excite people we have some really cool guests coming on the spaces shout out to
ryan for getting a couple people on today so expect that we might have to come in and cut
you off in different places but uh yeah we appreciate everyone for joining in here we
got matt powers joining in as one of the first guests uh joining us in but uh but yeah no uh
this is this should be an interesting day.
We're going to keep the first part here, the rant, a little bit shorter.
One two-minute hits, except for some of the guests like Matt and some others,
and then we can go from there.
But I appreciate you, and I see Matt connecting us up here.
I think we jump right into it if we can go over to maybe Options Mike to kick us off.
Yo, you want a quick two-minute
hit um mark was was down and on the precipice of a failure i want you all to think back to monday
when the fake news of a 90-day pause which turned out to be absolutely true um and the bond market
was in danger of collapsing and if you were paying, three minutes before one o'clock, the 10-year auction, there was a report out by Politico that Bessonet had been called to an emergency meeting and canceled a meeting with Republicans in the White House.
And then the news broke.
And we now have a 90-day basically pause for tariffs for everybody to negotiate except for China.
Poor China. China playing hardball. they don't get the same thing bottom line is this is extremely bullish for
the market this doesn't mean we're going to go running back to all-time highs uh but i do think
the 200 day on the spy is a good target there up around that 577 area that would be the place i
would start looking for here and uh i'm trading long i'm along some spy calls and i'm looking for
that move and i'll turn it back over to you guys thank you very much i hope you all had a great day
i appreciate you mike we don't need to uh like go crazy fast but um
we're gonna keep the rents too short here and then my guess is this space might be going for
a long time tonight so strap in in, we shall see. Tariffs
being lowered, a bunch of pauses here. There was some questions around 10% tariffs. Is
it every country or is it just the ones that outreach? China, that one was clear, raising
tariffs up to 120%.
10% stays across the board. That doesn't change.
So it's just a little bit of a reprieve and it sounds like it would even be lower down
from there uh so stock market though nasdaq 100 up 9.4 so far today that is on pace for the fifth
best or fifth best day in its history right around there this was created in like 1999 or something
so it doesn't have some of the past ones s p 500 it's it's just breaking into that top 20. uh by
the way we should get Matt to get requested
again. But yeah, that is
a lot of that we have going on.
Logical, you got your hand up?
Yeah, I just was hoping
to go next, if that's cool.
Yep. Let me go once.
Yeah. Sounds good.
Yeah. Crazy day. Crazy day.
And I will tell you, man,
this morning at XBI, I'm a big biotech guy.
That thing was down to its 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 lows. And I was just pitting my stomach.
I was like, I seriously felt like I was on the brink of capitulation. I was posting this morning.
I was like, is this, you know, like send me a sign at this point. I hope this is a sign that I feel
this way. And it really, you know, yesterday yesterday i had about 80 long exposure coming into today i had about 20 30
percent uh short exposure this morning after i saw that stuff about retaliatory
tariffs from china and the market didn't make new lows i was like okay then there's really
no downside right now in this market doesn't want to go lower took off my shorts new lows i was like okay then there's really no downside right now in this
market doesn't want to go lower took off my shorts so then i was 80 long and as soon as we started
ripping and the news is very important obviously we talked about this in the spaces for the last
couple days i don't want to just chase things based on chasing things but this is real information that changes the situation so you know
I added a lot of exposure long as much as I could honestly this is what I was waiting for I'd rather
chase it a little bit higher because guess what even if you chase something that was up 10% today
chances are you're still down it's still down 50 from the highs just two months ago and
i'm not saying every single stock in the market is going to go to those highs but the names that
you like that feel like we're wrongly uh punished in this economic potential downturn if if you know
we are actually going to start seeing deals be made uh as a result of this i mean that can change
a lot uh for the forward sentiment so So I definitely – we talked about this.
Like, I'd be happy to chase, and I am chasing today.
So I'm just putting that out there.
I appreciate you to start there.
Let's go over to Ryan.
He's going to bring Matt into it.
Yeah, thank you guys for having me.
Yeah, big few days.
And, Matt, thank you for joining us.
I think this will be great so
first question we just wanted to ask is uh kind of where you guys are at as a company and and where
you guys kind of see the market going especially after today quickly actually also matt if you could
also introduce yourself a little bit to the crowd we got what 800 people in here uh appreciate you
on the space for the first time,
too. I'm excited. Absolutely. Guys, I love it. Everybody hear me okay?
Yeah, we got you. Sounds pretty good. Oh, good. Yeah. I love this right now,
and I love the group. So introducing myself, I run an advisory firm. We're based out of the
St. Louis area. I've been an advisor for over 20 years and we manage assets for individuals,
institutions, on and on. And I'm on CNBC quite often, Yahoo Wealth, Yahoo Finance Wealth. I've
done some stuff on the BBC and then some other articles and things like that. So a lot of media,
but we manage primarily, as boring as it sounds, typically a dividend growth portfolio is our core.
And this year,
it's actually worked out quite well. So kind of answering your question, Ryan, I think that was
you to ask that. And by the way, Ryan, I appreciate you getting me on here too. So to answer your
question, one of the things that we're getting a lot from clients right now that we're talking to
a lot of our investors about is they're wanting, it's less of run and panic. It's more of, hey,
how do we place funds in the market?
And where are we going with it?
And traditional advice of tying that back to your goals,
but then it's where we're kind of struggling with this
and we're kind of sifting through the wreckage right now.
So you start breaking down where every sector is
and then stocks within sectors
and you're trying to find, okay,
where are the opportunities
or do you just go broad-based?
And obviously this is a broad-based sell-off.
So it's more ETF conversations, individual stocks.
I don't want to recommend them on here, but when we're going in and looking at this, it's, all right, companies we've liked for a while are now, there's some pretty obvious buying opportunities in there.
Were you getting a lot of calls from your clients over the last little bit? Because
I know you know, those dividend growth type investors might know being a little bit safer
and even their stocks were getting hit. So I'm curious on that. And also if you guys like how
you guys go about hedging or, you know, how you look about that, if it's having the cash pile or
stuff like that, or like how you guys think about also, or we're thinking about protecting to the
downside, because I know that's something that you guys think about that that maybe some other people
don't yeah you know when you're dealing with clients money it's just it's slightly different
and so to answer your question on directly the hedging side a lot of it was done I mean not
we saw this coming by any stretch but a lot of it you know and what I had a lot of the shows I had
done worldwide exchanges and those conversations were based on, hey, be very careful right now.
You know, you got the stretch valuation starting the year and we've had the two years of the run up in the market.
Everyone very quickly forgets 2022.
The S&P is down almost 20 percent that year.
And, you know, you start looking at so you're looking at the the equal weight s p versus the the um
the normal s p 500 and you know there's a there's a huge difference in returns compared to what we previously previously saw so we had a lot of clients that were in money market funds some
of them still are and we're just trying to figure out how now to deploy that cash um and where it's
going to go because clearly if we had this conversation three hours ago it might look a lot
different um than if we have it now just from what's happened i mean just earlier today i'm
actually i was getting my car worked on sitting in the lobby of the place and um walked out paid
for it i'm driving down the road and and when i left you know the market was kind of sputtering
and uh look at my phone and cnbc and markets. So just, you know, things are highly volatile right now.
The conversations with the clients primarily are be awfully careful on both
ends. So don't be blindly optimistic saying, okay,
things are down temporarily. Let's dump everything in on the flip side.
You know, don't run in panic. That's standard, you know, standard practice.
That's standard advice that we're going to give anybody.
Yeah, no, those are all good points.
And I would just kind of go into what you were saying, kind of what Evan asked.
But now with, I mean, S&P now is up about 8% as Trump speaking.
Would you be looking to start kind of allocating more capital for your clients here?
Or where's your thought? I know there's so much volatility, it's kind of allocating more capital for your clients here or where's your thought?
I know there's so much volatility, it's kind of hard to say, but where's your thought on that?
Do you think this is just a just kind of random, not random, obviously, but just a little bit of a trap, this upside?
Or do you think this could this could be continued positive?
Yeah, you know know we actually already did
so we did a lot of uh allocating monday um good or bad you know obviously that it was later in the
day and then yesterday was not great but not terrible so we've already done some of that but
a lot of it is systematic um you know we've got a client in cash it's a systematic rebalance in
but this i guess on the flip side, maybe
softens us just a little bit. Like we had a couple more days of what we've seen the past five days,
four and a half days. Yeah. I think we were going to start going pretty quickly, moving away from
cash and starting to invest. And, um, you know, you just look, you can look at, I mean, look at
the mag seven, which, you know, obviously that's what's, you know, everybody pays attention to
that. We've got every one of these names year to date are just beating to shreds,
even with today's numbers.
So obviously valuations on these guys were all stretched to begin the year,
minus maybe a couple, but there's still opportunities within there.
So regardless of how this shakes out today over the next 45 minutes,
I still think now's a good time to go in and
start allocating cash and uh we quickly go to stock talk not for not for a full rant here but
for like a one or two minutes stock talk i just want your initial reactions here and then maybe
we can some mass thoughts off of that yep what a day yeah crazy day um i'm not sure how to feel about it yet.
I mean, obviously, we got this big market pump off of it.
Stock talk.
Did you do any buying?
Would be my guess, right?
Outside of the Amazon leaps that I added yesterday, no.
I didn't chase anything today into this move.
I'm fine with waiting.
I'm fine with waiting.
And, you know, even if we do get a two or three day move string together here,
And even if we do get a two- or three-day move string together here,
I'd feel more comfortable doing that in size when China comes to the table.
Because I do think that in the background, that is still the bigger issue.
The tariffs with most of these other countries are, it's nice.
It's nice to see that he's softened up.
I think if I had to put my finger on it, the main takeaway from his announcement today is less about the fact that he did a pause and more about the fact that he caved to market pressure.
I think that's probably a more important takeaway.
Because I think in the days leading up to this off and even in our conversation yesterday, I mean, remember yesterday when we were talking about, hey, how do we, what's the
way out of this? You know, what's the escape route? I asked Cantro, I asked Kevin, Bill,
so many different smart guys we had up here. And all of them were like, I don't know,
I don't know how you get out of this. And then today he just walks it back
on the very first day of the implementation. He says it's not because of market pressure.
I don't think anyone believes that.
I don't believe that.
I think the move in the bond markets last night with the 10-year yield of 4.5% should
have scared the White House, and I think it probably did.
I think that's probably why you got the announcement today.
So I think the market pressure won over here uh you know i did a tweet earlier
and i sort of misphrased it so i deleted it because people weren't understanding what i was
saying but the market yeah the early part of the sell-off like when the market was down three four
percent from the highs trump came out and he's like well i'm not watching the market the market
went down another three or four percent and then you had dissent going on basically every major news network starting to do interviews but still
they're like we're not watching stock stock real quick not to interrupt but he just came out and
admitted he was watching the bond market he just said that's exactly what drove it oh that's funny
well yeah um i don't know you just said that but yeah he they're clearly watching the market and
like dissent's an ex-Wall Street guy.
Lutnik's an ex-Wall Street guy.
Like, they're the two most powerful people in terms of economic advisement to the president,
maybe outside of Navarro.
But yeah, I mean, you know, you have to draw the line that eventually they're going to
get concerned about markets.
And last night's move may have done it, you know, with the 10-year surging.
Like, that was the biggest two-day, two- it, you know, with the 10-year surging.
Like, that was the biggest two-day, two- to three-day move in the 10-year yield since,
what, 2022?
I mean, I don't know.
I'm just off the top of my head.
I haven't gone and looked at the chart.
But that was a massive, you know, three-day move in the 10-year yield.
And you get that with a continuing weakness in equities, which is what we had in the overnight session.
That's not what you want to see.
That's the markets basically loudly telling you, hey, this is not smart policy. And so,
yeah, I think a lot of people didn't think Trump was going to cave, is my point. And he did cave.
He caved to the market. And people might try to characterize it some other way. I think it's
really hard to do so. That's what happened here. The bond market forced the White House's hand into this pause.
And now we'll see if China comes to the table as well.
Hopefully they do, because obviously that's the most important relationship here in terms of global economic activity.
So I would like to see China come to the table and make a deal.
I think once
that happens, I think then you have a real, real, you know, powerful bottom in place.
You know, and it may be maybe today is the first first day of that and the start of that. It
absolutely could be. This is a pretty vicious move to the upside. And, you know, pretty much
every individual name is getting bit along with it. So it's more reassuring, certainly,
than the fake news bounce we got yesterday. But was that even a fake news bounce now? Because maybe that was just a leak,
you know, and everyone was killing, killing people for tweeting it yesterday. But
turns out, turns out it did happen. So yeah, this is obviously positive news incrementally.
The markets are obviously telling you that as well.
But I do think China still needs to come to the table and drop a deal.
And we need to get past that point as well.
But some people think that's not going to happen.
We're headed for some kind of new world order where the U.S. and China isolate themselves and the rest of the world sort of picks a side.
Maybe that's the outcome, too.
I don't know.
But, yeah, this situation did change. I think if you were to say how did it change, I would say the biggest takeaway is that Trump is now – we know Trump is susceptible to market pressure just like every other president ever.
And I think there was a moment there, especially yesterday, especially the day before, where people were starting to believe, dude, this guy might just not care.
This guy might be willing to just take the whole thing down in order to
accomplish the objective and as of today that doesn't seem to be the case it seems like even
he can be pressured by the market he probably got so many calls in the last 24 hours from
you know institutional people from donors from business people that were like hey dude you can't do this you know and
so he pulled back but yeah goes to show no one no no one man is is uh not susceptible to market
pressure market pressure makes everyone cave whether it's the fed or the president or anyone
you know you send markets down fast enough um far, and you get that kind of disjointed reaction in bond markets at the tail end of the sell off.
That starts to give you big red flags.
And, you know, I imagine Wall Street commentary will shift in the morning a little bit.
It'll probably be.
Did you get cut off? Yeah, I lost. lost honestly it was a good time i said no rants and we were getting i was like all right about the time but matt can i bring you in back into the conversation there's
a lot of different points there i want to i want to get you get your thoughts on you know the markets
the different headlines we're getting out there everything that stock talk was talking about
going up yeah you bet and i i echo a lot of what he said you know it's so trump not to we're not getting
political but he's unpredictable everyone knows unpredictable and it was just thought on both
sides so we saw it he was it was unpredictable what the level of the tariffs that he announced
and it was today was just obviously unpredictable too so with that you know that's where it goes
back to you got to be a little bit careful with volatility and. So with that, you know, that's where it goes back to.
You got to be a little bit careful with volatility and where this is headed.
So, you know, the one thing I can offer here, I don't know how old everybody is on here.
I'm 45.
I've been in the industry 23 years, but I can say this.
So I think it was Belsky was on halftime with Wapner yesterday or two days ago.
And he pinned him down about, you know, this not being different.
Brian saying, hey, this is not different than before.
And the one thing that Brian probably should have came back with is it's not different,
but it is different.
So, you know, we did not know that we were going to have a pandemic.
We didn't know in 08 that there was going to be a mortgage crisis and we're going to
be on the brink of the financial system collapsing.
And we didn't know planes were going to fly into a building.
So you didn't know that.
No one could have predicted that.
The only difference here is that this is all controlled by really one person.
And so to make a, I guess, as an investor, whether you're buying companies or just doing anything broad based with ETFs or funds or index
based investing. If you're going to make a choice in here, you have to be awfully careful with the
timing of it right now, just because things just when you think something's going to happen,
the opposite really does. And we just saw that over these past five days. So, you know, I guess
that's kind of my my advice within here. And then, you know, it's kind of like this. So typically when you're investing, you're looking at specific sectors and then trying to pick the winners of those sectors if you're buying individual companies.
if I'm looking at deploying cash,
I'm probably going to start picking and choosing individual companies.
And I have to be careful with what I recommend on here,
but that's where I'm at.
While you're speaking, QQQ accelerating a little bit.
Now on pace for the third best day in its history, up 11.1%.
Wild times. Ryan, yes. Yeah yeah and the s&p now over
5400 i don't think it went that way at all uh in the two o'clock hour so massive massive upside
here uh so you know if you go back oh sorry ryan go ahead no no continue continue no i was just
gonna say you go back to uh to covid just five years ago in that 2020, you know, March, April timeframe,
we saw these big swings, but, I mean, nothing like this,
you know, especially to the upside.
Like, this is crazy.
I'm, again, doing this 22 years.
I've not seen something like this.
So we'll just be interested in how this shakes out the rest of the week.
Yeah, and then the last thing I was going to kind of just ask here is the first, I would say,
change we've seen so far is Goldman Sachs just came out and said that they're rescinding their
recession call. They put that out this morning. And I would assume there's probably more of that
to come. Do you have any thoughts on the future impact of this?
I know the flip-flop is not good at all,
but obviously this reverse could definitely limit the chances of a recession.
Do you have any thoughts there?
You're saying the flip-flop from Goldman or the flip-flop from Trump today?
No, the flip-flop from Trump,
and it's caused Goldman to switch from a recession
call to now no recession yeah you know and i'm kind of shocked at that that they did that to be
honest um you know obviously there's some very intelligent individuals in there but to make that
quick change this this quickly you know i um you know i i have no answer to that. I really don't, um, no opinion other than kind of shocked that they, they made that change in their, their opinions quickly. So.
Yeah, I agree.
There were like two news stories that came out today that I noticed that they literally put like an asterisk behind it and said that this was written before the Trump tariff decision. I thought that was pretty interesting as well.
You should have seen, we were live on our episode of a show and midway through, all
of a sudden this happened and we're like, okay, now we got to scramble and figure something
out.
So wild stuff going there.
But Matt, we definitely do appreciate you joining on here.
And I know we're coming up close to the time that you had for us.
Is there anything you kind of want to leave people in this market headline driven?
Like, I mean, maybe we're done with all this risk and it's just back to back to all-time highs soon i don't i don't
know i'm just i'm just curious on you know as we're in a unique position right now what you're
watching well you know here's where we're at is before this before any of this we're plugging
along and we saw where the year was going. We saw who the leaders were and what sectors. And you saw discretionaries were just getting hammered on. And we own a lot
of those companies. And that includes Nike and some of these companies. So I've talked about
quite a bit on networks, but if tariffs hold, if 90 days pass and they're placed all over again,
those companies, I mean, I don't know how they're going to
work through this um you know and that's primarily those um whether it's a footwear company a clothing
company it i mean that those are uh those are stocks i love to own i'm watching right now i see
nike's up 11 right now um but for what's going to happen there, you know, on cloud, on holdings,
90% of their production's in Vietnam.
So if those tariffs come back on Vietnam,
I don't know how a company like that
can shift manufacturing quickly
and be able to recover through that.
So that's what I'm interested to see
for the rest of the year,
what happens with a lot of those
discretionary sector companies.
I appreciate you for joining us. Yeah, no, I appreciate you for joining us.
Yeah, no, appreciate you for being us here and getting on, getting,
and Ryan for getting you here. As always,
when people say someone's smart, you should definitely check them out.
We appreciate all the speakers for joining in.
Make sure you give him a follow. Matt,
appreciate you for joining us on here. Appreciate you guys. Thanks.
I'm going to keep us rolling here. Monitiv, you got your hand up?
Yeah. Soitiv, you got your hand up? Yeah.
So Wall Street Engine just posted Trump might have said that he might exempt companies from sanctions down the road.
So Apple rallied on that.
But that's not what I was going to lead up with.
So again, right, let's be very careful here we we the pause is fabulous
compared to where we were yesterday i think that was you know a much needed uh at least buying time
if nothing else right that's that's that's what he's done we've not solved anything but we bought
ourselves time so that's a good thing it's it. It's far better than where we were last night.
But we still have this problem, right?
Today you saw Delta withdrew guidance.
This is going to continue.
We're going to see more and more and more companies withdraw guidance for the year.
It's not a good thing.
You're just...
Manta, let's dig into that point.
Let's try and get this space to be like a little bit more around.
What do we think about guidance? Is anything change from, you know, today on this? Is everyone going to withdraw guidance?
What do they know? How do they guide? They don't know what rules they're working under.
Brian, what do you think? Get your hand up.
your end up yeah uh well i was going to say something else before you talked about guidance
but i'll pivot to guidance i because i tweeted out earlier today i said uh before this massive
move here which by the way i just got to say i've been doing this 40 years and i never thought i
would say this but um the sitting president of the united states gave us insider information
and he literally he literally posted on true, this is a great time to buy at about 930 this morning.
I mean, Pelosi knows.
But he pumped his own stock.
I don't know if that was.
I thought that was in his signature is what I took it as.
Let's see what the SEC says.
I mean, because look, you know a guy with an ego as big as him
can't avoid trying to give you a little wink wink you know like it's going to be good for you anyway
it's just the idea that a president would ever do this it's just so funny I was telling someone
earlier today I said I thought that maybe capitulation would be stock by stock as we went through earnings. And I was talking about how,
would you buy or would you short Amazon pre this big move here, obviously, going into the 24th
on earnings? Like, I don't know. This is like a coin flip. So I think the idea that guidance
would be just wrecked was probably a lot more legitimate before an hour or two ago. I think the question
is, did we go over the tipping point? Did something happen structurally, or did we scare
enough CEOs, or is there enough uncertainty that when we get to these earnings calls that are
going to be coming up very quickly, they're going to be a little bit tentative. I don't know. But here's another thing. Last week, a lot of analysts came out and lowered
price targets from some pretty prime companies. If nothing changed, like if we didn't structurally
change anything in this tariff palooza that we've had, those numbers are going to get blown out.
And these companies are going
to look like rocket ships. And I also want to say one other thing. We talked about yesterday
on Spaces, and I was very explicit about this, is that if you were betting that it was different
this time, you were betting against the structural foundation of this country. It's always different
in terms of what the cause is, but it's never different in terms
of the resolution, which means at some point the crash will be erased. I didn't expect it to happen
in one day. But if you were not betting on that, you had to accept that you're betting against
this country, the foundation, the rule of law, encouragement of innovation. And I was very
explicit about how things adapt very quickly. Everyone thinks that
Trump is a psycho, especially the people that don't like him. I don't particularly like him,
but why would he tank the economy? This is a real narrative that people are saying,
like, oh, he wants to take the economy. No, he doesn't. The reason he walked this back today
is because he got his hooks into some sort of narrative he could sell to himself.
He saw what happened in the bond market
last night. Stock talk.
Stock talk with some thumbs down there.
We completely disagree.
He made this move.
Let me make my point. He probably got a lot of
phone calls last night and he probably
thought, oh, I got to get out of this.
I've got to fold.
All he needed to do was get his head around his own narrative. Oh, I'm doing get out of this i've got to i've got to fold and all he needed to do is get
his head around his own narrative right there's oh i'm doing it because of this and then he did
what he did today so the point is is that that it's it's hard to bet it's hard to bet on the
end of the world because if you win like there's nobody around to celebrate with you
just want to say we got so much going on. Let's keep the rants too low.
That is not at the line, not at anyone.
Everyone, first couple minutes here.
The end of that I agree with.
The end of that I agree with.
The start of it I don't agree with.
I don't think this was about him thinking he got leverage
or anything like that.
I think this was about the move in the bond markets last night.
I mean, the goal of the administration…
No, I agree.
That's what I said.
Yeah, he was scared by the move in the bond market last night. 100%. Yeah, yeah. the administration- No, I agree. That's what I said. Yeah, he was scared by the move
in the bond market last night.
100%.
Yeah, yeah.
Okay, okay.
Well, then we do agree.
Yeah, I mean, I think that's all it is.
I mean, I think today is a concession
that he was acting like he didn't give a shit
about markets.
And I think today's a concession
that even he is not immune to it.
And I was just making the point
that he just has to,
an egoist just has to get their head around a narrative they can sell to themselves for them to act. And I think he did
that. He saw the bond market going crazy and he thought, how do I get out of this? Oh, I know,
I'll spin it this way. That we're, you know, this was our hard ball and now China's out in the cold,
whether that's right or wrong, I don't care. But I think that's what happened.
Markets are continuing to move higher here, by the way, during this.
Mantif, let's go to you first and then we'll go to Wolfie. Yeah, let me just finish my thoughts.
I mean, look, just continuing on this, right? There's almost no way that the bank CEOs didn't
talk to him in the last few days and say when they come out starting Friday, they are not going to
have good news if this continues. This is not, his hand was forced. You can spin it however you want,
but his hand was forced to this decision because this was just becoming a much larger problem
than could just be resolved by, you know, holding the course. It just wasn't going to happen.
But leaving that aside for a second, right? I mean, let's talk about what is the basis by which
these companies can give steady guidance. For the next quarter, possibly, you have time.
You can still give some guidance because you're already in the quarter. You already know whether you're going to make it or not.
But the full year guidance, to be able to give full year guidance,
you need some level of rational analysis of the market that's ahead of you for nine months.
And there's no possible way to do that.
It would be fiscally irresponsible for most
companies without certainty to give i mean a company like meta or google whatever country
you hit with with with taxes with tariffs sorry you're gonna have an impact on on selling
advertising to that those countries a company like Apple, right? I mean,
they might get exemption, but it's still going to be a question of, okay, what does China do?
What does their 15%, 17% market sales from revenue from China, what happens to that?
So I think it has to be a case byby-case basis there is there's going to be widespread
impacts that linger it's not nothing has disappeared from this mess it's just that
we bought ourselves time that's all it is
yeah i'm just i just wanted to you guys are talking about earnings and guidance. I just wanted to add a wrinkle that kind of made me scratch my head a little bit this morning.
You know, and I'll save my comments whenever you guys have time, just overall.
But Walmart this morning reaffirmed its Q1 and, you know, 26 growth outlook, which kind of made me scratch my head a little bit on the back of what was
going on.
You know, and they came out and said that they reaffirmed their sales growth guidance
of three to 4% and their overall growth of 3.5 to 5.5%.
And then they went on and they did this ahead of their investment community meeting.
So they just kind of like went out of their way to reassure investors and say that they were going to hit their targets.
And that one's especially interesting.
It was especially interesting this morning to me, given how much impact they have from just like some of the stuff from China.
And then they just went on and give you more and more data
around what they were expecting.
It's pretty much all online.
So I agree.
I agree with like a lot of companies
are going to use this opportunity to pull guidance.
A lot of these companies
are going to have an opaque guidance,
but I don't have any insight to why they feel this way
or why they would come out and aggressively do that
outside of just like maintaining some sort of share price
in the short run.
And maybe they just kind of want to use it
as a way to bring down investor fear.
But I just wonder
if there's other ones like it
that will do something similar. I just wanted
to kind of throw that into the conversation
you guys are just having around guidance and whatnot.
So, okay, quickly, the best thing
on these spaces, you can jump back and forth on stuff from we're
going to keep going in the hands so if anyone wants to respond to that feel free brian nasdaq
futures up 2 000 points you know when i did when i did my daily update on friday last week i couldn't
stop laughing because the move that we had on thursday and friday was ridiculous like it was
like i was just it's what like i said this earlier like there's this bit that Chappelle does is like, have you ever seen something that was just
so racist that you weren't even mad? You're like, damn, that was racist. Right. That's how I kept
looking at the market going, Jesus Christ. Right. This is just the corollary. This is the opposite
side. I'm like laughing at how ridiculous this move is. I mean, it is epic. And we're seeing
VIX get crushed and we're seeing Goldman pull back the recession calls and we're seeing VIX get crushed. And we're seeing Goldman pull back the recession calls. And we're seeing oil and copper rally.
I mean, this is, it's amazing.
I have to say this is up in the top three craziest things I've ever seen.
Evan, I just wanted to say real quick, I wanted to ask Stock Talk and Brian, because Brian was going on this about 10 minutes ago.
and Brian, because Brian was going on this about 10 minutes ago. On the front of today with,
oh, they didn't get really anything out of this. They had to cave. And I agree that the bond market
drove them into this decision. But I feel like it still does have something to do with what we
talked about Sunday night with Jaguar to the fact that China is the biggest part out of all of this,
clearly. And most of the tariffs were set for this trade war with China. And that is the goal
all along. In my opinion, that's the whole thing, is to isolate China. China needs to export to get
them out of their disinflationary spiral. And in my opinion, Trump has the biggest vendetta against
China for many different reasons.
And they're trying to isolate the world against China and have Mexico, have the EU all place
tariffs on China to therefore hinder the ability for them to actually export and get out of
this disinflationary spiral.
But nobody talks about that.
In my opinion, that's a big part of what they're doing.
Obviously,
the bond market forced them to react today. But I think that's the main personal issue with it.
I'd like to hear your thoughts there, Stock Talk. But in my opinion, that's one of the main goals of the whole tariff policy. Yeah. I mean, I'm past the point of trying to predict what's going to happen from a policy standpoint.
So I won't predict what his purpose is.
But what I'll say is that I'll believe that when I see it.
If one of the countries that we're negotiating with comes to the table and says,
as part of our negotiations with the United States, we are also implementing tariffs on China,
then yeah, I think that would be your first indication.
Mexico already kind of has.
And that's why Trump softened his stance on Mexico a week ago.
What did Mexico do?
Mexico over a week ago said that they would induce a tariff on China as well.
Right. I mean, like, actually doing doing that they kind of let them be
okay well i i didn't see that but i'll take your word for it what i'm saying is is i don't think
they've actually done it right maybe they said they would do it or or whatever the case is but
my point is is if i see trade agreements signed where people actually put tariffs on China, then yeah, I think that that strategy would maybe make sense.
But I think that's a hard bargain. Like, you know, look, I agree with the idea as an American that
China is our adversary and that they do not have the United States best interests in mind. I don't
disagree with any of that. I think we do need to address the China problem in multiple ways. But I think it's really hard for the world to
wean themselves off of Chinese exports so quickly. And so, you know, again, look, I think today's
market reaction is justified. I think, you know, again, today the market acknowledged that a Trump put does exist when it was beginning to think that maybe it didn't.
And that is that is a shift to a degree in the narrative.
But I still think China is an overhead risk because I don't know how quickly they're going to come to the table.
I do think 125 percent tariffs on China are disastrous for the global economy.
I do think that will increase inflation in the short run. I do think it will affect the guidance of many
American multinational corporations that do a lot of business in China. So I still think those are
overhead risks. Now, could the market rip back to the 200-day and maybe even higher, even in spite
of those risks? Yeah, absolutely. We've talked
about counter trend rallies a lot last week, yesterday, throughout this whole conversation,
right? Again, you don't have to go far back to find 10%, 12%, 13% counter trend rallies. They
happened like five, six, seven times in 2022. So is today's news incrementally positive in the
sense that we know there's a Trump put?
Yes. Is there still a massive risk to the global economy with 125% tariffs on China? Yes. And do I
think Trump has some sort of long ball strategy to get the rest of the world to isolate China?
Maybe, but I don't know if it's tenable. And I think a lot of Eastern Asia, that's just simply
not an option for them. They do way too much business with China and they also have like
regional and geographical relationships with China. And in Europe, I mean, Europe is already
pretty anti-China in terms of restricting trade with China in certain industries. So could you push
them a little further on that stance? Sure. I don't think that's far-fetched, but getting our
allies to cooperate on an anti-China stance, I don't think is a new development. They've already
been doing that for quite a while. Is the rest of the world going to join on it? I don't know.
But yeah, I think we've got to take this day by day. I think anyone who thinks they can predict the course of policy here is probably
mistaken. This is going to be a very volatile policy environment, very headline-driven environment.
I don't think today means we've had the last red day of the year, and I don't think today means
we're going to get only green days from here either. You know, I think it's still going to continue to be very volatile. But I will say if a deal is signed with China, I would become very, very almost blindly bullish on this market.
And that's what that's.
But what type of deal do you think they would sign with China at this point?
Because I don't know.
They just lower the tariff rates or what type of because I feel like on both.
I mean, lowering the tariff rates would be bullish.
Yeah.
To a reasonable level.
You know,
if they go from whatever they're at now,
125% to something like 20%.
Yeah,
that would be,
that would be bullish,
but I don't know how the deal is going to play out.
I don't know if it's going to be like,
you know,
some sort of massive multi-week or multi-month negotiation where the U.S. and China meet in
some third-party location for, I don't know how it's going to play out. I don't know if it's
going to be something as simple as like a two-hour phone call between Trump and GE,
or if it's going to be something more drawn out. So I have no clue. I'd be lying to you if I told
you that I know how it's going to play out, right? So I don't know.
Sam, what's up?
Yeah, I think to address that stock talk,
and I think the issue is that he already pivoted, okay?
Like this kind of reminds you of 2018 when you had the Powell pivot,
where you had a very choppy year with the trade war going on,
if you look at the chart and
it pretty much made its all-time high before, I think it was around September or October 2018.
I remember those days too. And in December, it was like the most red Christmas day you could
possibly think of. The market was so red. I don't think it was exactly Christmas day,
but it was around there. And it was around that time when there was a Fed emergency meeting.
And then Powell came out and he basically said, they're not going to hike rates anymore.
They were going into a height cycle.
And the market just was a hair away from a bear market.
So it was a very fast drop, very similar to what you saw today.
A lot of people, they said they attribute what we've seen to 2018.
But to be a little bit more specific, I think it is very attributed to winter of 2018 because there was so much fear being baked into the market.
And the market was just aggressively selling off over and over and over again every single day until that pivot came in.
And if you look at the chart, it was a V-shaped recovery.
Now, I'm not going to say that this is a V-shaped recovery
because still we have not seen the impacts of this
as far as our guidance goes from a lot of these companies.
And to be honest, I mean, I'm still a little cautious here,
just like you, StockTalk.
But, you know, obviously my portfolio is more positioned
toward buying the longer term stuff.
And I'm a little bit more aggressive than you are when it comes to that.
But besides that, I think that the pivot did happen.
And like you guys were saying, the bond market was aggressively selling off last night, especially after the tariffs went in place.
And it dropped. I think the TLT went all the way down to about 83 or 84.
And the third year was all the way at 5 percent to 10 year is all the way on 4.5%. Massive 60 plus basis point move. Fastest two day
move in a long time. And I think Montel was saying like, you know, he was definitely talking
to a lot of bangers. And you know, he's probably talking to a lot of CEOs too. And people bang on his door.
And to go back to that situation because, hey, the market's up a lot now.
I don't want it to go up this fast or whatever it is.
Or the bond market is still low.
We want it to go back up, whatever it is.
I think really any news that comes in that shows that he might be making a deal with China or might be proposing to make a deal with
China. I think that the market is going to run with that. And any hint of it, I'm going to keep
a lookout for it, but any hint of that happening, the market's going to run off that. But on the
other side, if there's any news that there is not a deal, then it's possible a market might sell off of that.
So we're really in a very precarious place where we're very vulnerable right now.
We're very vulnerable for volatility, the upside into the downside.
While this rally is still great, I love it.
But at the same time, I'm super cautious through this.
How many times were POPs sold off on a short-term interval?
And then now if you look at the daily interval, what if this gets sold off too?
I'm not saying it's going to.
I'm saying like I am not expecting all-time highs anytime soon.
Like it's very tough to look at what's been happening in the market, look at the volatility in terms of the narrative that's coming out of Trump and the administration.
It certainly is nice to see Bessette basically help Trump pivot on that one.
But I don't know.
What do you think?
Do you think there's going to be an all-time high soon?
Or do you think that we're going to continue to have this massive shop range?
I think at the very least, you could say there's a 20% Trump put.
So basically, we get down to that bear market point, and the bond market blows on the back of it, and he can capitulate.
That's the very least of what I think.
On the back of the second question, I think one of the things that kind of gets pushed aside, but is going to be actually you know an issue moving forward this just got
pushed out for 90 days right so this morning uh if you looked at some of the the headlines out of
china they were they were actually being the cool head they were saying we're willing to still make
a deal or whatever um and then on the back of all of this all of the the the reversal for trump
the reversal for Trump, they still said that the 10% tariff is going to go into place
effective immediately for those that didn't lower, right?
So there will be some places where you see inflation.
And if this just gets pushed out for 90 days and we just keep doing the same song and dance,
it's still going to create that inflation creep.
And then all of the other stuff that we talked about is still going to be on the table, you know, 60, 70, 80 days from now, not to mention the earnings and all that stuff.
So I think, yeah, it's, you know, it's great.
We got a we got a pop.
And I was fortunate enough to buy this morning and buy some spooze and whatnot.
But I just don't think that we're out of the woods.
I think a lot of what you said I agree with.
I don't think this is just straight to all-time high unless he just decides,
I don't want to do this anymore and I'm out on doing this
and I'll just take the legacy of being the guy that told America to buy the dip.
I don't know.
But outside of that, I just think a lot of the secondary, third, tertiary derivatives are going to come back.
It's just we pushed it down the road for a little bit.
Yeah.
There's a report out right now that Google is reaffirming its CapEx guide for this year.
I think that already came out earlier today.
But to add on to that point, you know, I mean, my prerogative has been when it comes to a lot of the companies I own, you know, focus on the micro. And we got some really nice prices on Sunday night.
on Sunday night, that was a very opportune time.
That was a very opportune time.
I think it was just generally like, okay, guys, we're at a sub 4,900 ES,
deep into bear market territory where the futures opened.
When Robinhood overnight opened, there were some crazy deals that occurred
that even when we reached a closer low last night,
we haven't even gotten close to those lows on individual names.
And there were many names that actually bought them well before that and just seeing the positioning
on the on the futures level that comes out from the um the cftc and also the sentiment
it's not surprising you get like one ounce of good news that something like this happens
at the same time though it can go the other way around. Like I'm not going to sit here and being
like, Hey guys, you know, we're good to go. I told you guys to buy the dip, you know, we're good.
We're good. It's like, yeah, I still have some cash in my account. Like I'm not, I'm still going
to go buy the same way. If I'm going to buy, I'm not going to go heavy or all in at once. I'm going
to take my
time and go slowly. Yes, I deployed a little bit of cash today, this morning, but at the same time,
like I still have cash in my account and just be cautious. And I'm going to continue to add to my
account and then deploy my cash where I believe it should be and try to stay away from any active trading or whatever that might be.
This is going to be an interesting scenario when we come to earnings season.
Just this Friday, we've got the banks reporting.
And then we have the MedCap earnings and everything.
And I've got news about Google keeping CapEx in line.
I'm expecting to probably hear Amazon either keep it in line or increase.
Microsoft, what if they come back up with a guidance?
You're probably going to see a huge rep, Riley, back in the data center stocks, especially
NVIDIA.
So, you know, it's just, there was so much negative sentiment at Bankgate.
And I just feel like a lot of people, including myself, I got a bit bearish too, I'm not going
to lie, that that just says a lot about the positioning of
the big money in the market. And when you're caught off sides like this, you're going to have
this massive squeeze like we're seeing today. And usually, historically, the largest up days
in the market are followed immediately by the largest down days. And historically speaking,
if you miss, I think if you miss like about five or four of the largest days in the entire year, you're basically missing on 8% of the gains of the market.
So, I mean, that's my prerogative, staying invested pretty much no matter what, but at the same time being prudent with extra cash that goes into the account.
Okay, some pigeons hit right at 10 up on the day by the way we had a massive market on clothes
and bounce here in the last 10 minutes with every big name you can imagine being on that list so
big big move here we just broke the 10 mark just wanted to call that out 12 over on qqq damn man
it's a good thing you had long four ES contracts at the bottom last Sunday.
Can I just add something here? I know, Sam, you were talking. I added a million dollars worth of stock buys today. Now, I am far less tactical than most of the people here, but I went into
today 40% cash. I added a million. I'll go over tomorrow morning what I bought, but a lot of it was index
funds. I am far less tactical and way more like Leroy Jenkins than you guys are, but I think the
narrative changed. And I got during 2008, 2009, when I was trading, I got a great advice from
a pretty big name Wall Street investor. He said, shut up and buy. Shut up and buy.
Just don't worry about the price. If you're buying S&P and you're going to hold it, shut up and buy.
So I have added a tremendous amount. I noticed that the nine day passed the 21 day on some of
these stocks on my four hour algorithm. I noticed everything. I will say, I do want to say,
options, Mike,
you were shorter today than when you had a bleeding kid in the backseat of your car. So
kudos to that one. And M, you had that God candle on Boeing. I was watching you trade live on spaces.
It's one of those days that you want to just shut up and buy. And I think that's not great advice
for everybody. But for somebody like me who just want,
you know, had millions of dollars sitting in cash, to be honest with you, because I had raised it
over the last month or so, just shut up and buy. And I think that that's, you know, don't follow
me. You're going to lose money if you follow me. I am not somebody that you, you know, that sends
out text alerts on everything. I'm not somebody that does a ton of research.
I have a podcast because I was able to retire at 49 years old, and I just try and share what I do.
And that was the best advice I got in 2008.
So today I'm sharing it with you guys.
I think I've shared some valuable stuff over the past couple of months with you guys.
Guys, that's my advice for today.
That's my advice for today.
By the way, we should be having a couple of guests
joining us in a little bit.
Kevin Gordon, and then we should also be having
a couple other people, a couple of surprise guests.
So I'm excited for that.
I did see someone.
I hear someone talking on.
Logical, you're going to talk earlier, right? I did see someone. I hear someone talking on. Yeah.
Logical.
You were going to talk earlier, right?
Yeah.
I was going to mention,
I got some note from a friend of mine.
Essentially,
it's crazy because we saw this big buying at the end of the day.
And apparently,
it was the levered ETF rebalance,
looking to make the biggest buys that they need to do
somebody sent me this um we estimate levered etfs need to buy 5 billion spx 14 billion ndx
blah blah blah all this stuff and tack into the clothes so that could have been why we
saw a little bit more pop towards the end
little bit more pop towards the end yeah we are close listen we're closing in on the s&p 500 right
now is uh at least spy is up 7.5 if we were to close here that would be sorry 9.5 that would be
yeah yeah that would be the eighth best day in its history right around here we were getting earlier
we were getting closer to six five qqq was created in 2000 or 1999 or something like that so it doesn't have
like the great depression so this one is on pace for its third best day right now could be second
hang on we'll see in the next couple minutes yeah but the nasdaq 100s this is the biggest rally since 2008.
Actually, if we get, well, actually, though, no, I'm kidding.
If we can get up to that second place, March, if they can close above 11.81%, then it will be since 2001.
And 2001, there's a 14.17% day.
I don't think that one's happening today.
You know, it's actually pretty interesting.
I think I saw, sorry, just real quick.
I think it was pretty interesting that yesterday when we were up like 4% and then it got sold off very aggressively into red, into the close.
I was reading some stuff saying that the last time that happened was near, was a couple
of months for the bottom in 2008.
Just found that pretty interesting. Not saying that that is exactly the case but i don't know you never know man
larry i saw your hand go up and i know you were going to jump in i'd love to throw out your
direction and see what thoughts you have yeah you guys hear me okay? Yes, sir.
Sweet.
Yeah, so a couple thoughts for those that don't know.
I'm a technician by trade, also a CPA, so I tend to rely a lot more on technicals when it comes to trading, but use a lot of just financial statement, fundamental stuff when it comes to maybe my longer-term retirement account
or conviction, depending on where we are in the cycle.
The first thing I'll just highlight because a lot of people were kind of mentioning best
day since, best day since, which is great, right?
Like they're not lying about that.
Totally agree with that stat.
That tends to be a feature of bear markets.
Doesn't mean, right?
Doesn't mean that this can't be a V bottom.
It just means that for those who are newer to the market,
best days and worst days are features of a bear market because bear markets tend to be more noisy.
And so you, it's funny because people are like, oh, I want volatility to come down,
but you actually need volatility to get the market back up. So it's kind of, it's just
kind of interesting, but just be aware of that. That's just an expectation
thing I want people to understand because I think the framing of it tends to be like,
oh my gosh, this is extremely bullish, which duh, it is. But it's also a feature of bear markets.
Bull markets are built on quiet strength. Bear markets tend to be noisy. That being said,
you tend to bottom off of extreme breath thrust. And I just want to
highlight that typically for a bottom from a technician's perspective to occur, you need
two pieces of data, right? The first one is capitulation. And so I have a 24 score model
that I use. Long story short, 18 of the 24 things were signaling yesterday. And I was on a space yesterday talking
about it. And essentially, one to six month returns become very, very good. And then if you
dig further into the data, most of that return recurs within the first 60 days. And then the
market gets punched. And then if we have another breakout, right, a higher low for technicians and
people look at the charts, then you can get a better signal of the bottom.
Right now, we don't know, right?
And so that's just the fact of the matter is we don't know.
But a lot of this stuff was capitulatory and a lot of things were at extremes.
I heard people say best day since 2008, 2020.
You're referencing bear markets, one.
Two, you're referencing potential bottoms.
So VIX getting back below 40 from being over 40 is a great signal to kind of get back in the market.
And so I would just say there was a lot of stuff that you can look at from a Trump this, Trump that, which I totally agree with.
We did just have the markets closed, by the way.
And I also saw Kevin joining us up here.
So we'll get over to you in a second, Kevin.
But yeah, markets closing down. We'll get to the metrics in a second.
Yeah. So I would just say that from that technical perspective, this is pretty standard in terms of
like a crazy thrust, right? Best day since occur when you have super capitulation, which is what
we had. The other thing I would say is even with all the news that came out, we never took down the low of Monday. The low that we put in Monday was the low. And then
in theory, we made a higher low yesterday on an intraday basis than that Monday low.
And you had really clean leveled against prior cycle highs to kind of manage your risk against.
And so I'll just say, right, like I'm trading this as a trade and I'm managing
risk carefully. Duh, I know it sounds stupid, but that's literally how you make money is being
boring. But I'd say- So Brett requesting up.
Sweet. All right. Yeah. We may shift the conversation around. I appreciate you,
Larry. Sorry. We're coming up here on the hard stop on the hour. We're going to get some two
really interesting people joining us up here.
If you want to finish that point, then I'll come around.
Yeah, just 520 is a key level, 540 is a key level.
I don't know, 200 days big, 560 is also big.
So just those are areas you can potentially manage risk against on SPY.
400 on the Qs is that prior cycle high.
Prior cycle highs are key.
That's it.
Cool.
I appreciate you, Larry,
and sorry for that cutoff there,
but we did have some people join us here
at the top of the hour.
We're lucky to be joined by Kevin Gordon,
the Director and Senior Investment Strategies
at Charles Schwab.
And then we also got Brett Winton joining us up here,
the Chief Futurist over at ARK Invest.
So we got some interesting conversations going on here
and I'm excited to go into it
kevin you're up here first i'm gonna throw it over to you uh this was a wild day a wild turnaround
as you might have heard larry talking about that a little bit there we we're getting some stats here
on this is like the second best day ever for qqq off of a turnaround um i just want to get your
thoughts on on just the craziness in the market and, you know, a day like today, how you would maybe this conversation might have been a little bit different before this.
I just appreciate you joining us up here a lot going on.
Oh, yeah. Thanks for thanks for having me.
I'm it's funny. I'm out on the West Coast speaking at one of our Schwab conferences.
And, you know, literally when I got on stage this morning, everything was based on, you know, all the reciprocal tariffs that kicked in as of midnight or 1201.
And by the time I got off stage, two minutes before I got off stage was the announcement of the 90 day pause.
So basically everything I said was stale.
But that's the nature of the beast these days.
You know, I mean, today is not any indication or not a clear indication of how much, you know, this is driving markets, at least in the short term, I don't know what is.
I think the, you know, the bounce and I got a little bit of what the prior speaker, I think it was Larry was was was saying I was able to hear the end of it.
But I think the, you know, the bounce today after you get to such deeply, deeply oversold territory.
And I'm not a technician. I'm just a macro analyst.
But the bounce that you get is understandable,
and especially when it's such a coiled spring
that's based on all of the anxiety that's tied up
with what's going on in trade.
I think in longer term, bigger picture terms,
and I think still what's interesting to me today
is the fact that from what I could see
on my Bloomberg screen off to the side, the tenure is still up a little bit.
And also the effective, you know, the average tariff rate for the U.S. now has still gone up by I think it's around 25 percentage points.
So it's not as if today's, you know, action in the market is somehow pricing in, you know, this economic euphoria that's about to come.
is somehow pricing in, you know, this economic euphoria that's about to come.
And that's not my saying that it's all going to be doom and gloom.
But I think taking a step back and just assessing what the sort of what the potential damage
is to the economy, are things better today than they were, I don't know, 12 hours ago?
Yes.
Are they probably arguably worse than they were a week ago?
Yeah, also yes.
So I think that if you're tying in the economy,
which is, you know, I wear both hats of being an economist
but also being a market strategist,
I still think that there's a lot to work through here
in terms of how much is this going to lead to
a slowdown in business investment.
You know, over the past week,
if you try to put yourselves in the shoes of a business
making a CapEx decision or a hiring decision,
I'm still not so sure how this entire saga engineers a ton of confidence in the business community to do that.
So, you know, I think that there's still a lot of questions, and this probably creates more questions than answers,
even though the news today is, of course, you know, relatively better than it was yesterday.
But, you know, happy to elaborate on any further point.
Yeah, I just want to ask you quickly,
we've had this earnings season coming up here in a couple days.
Maybe this changes what they would have said,
but I also still think it kind of underlines that area of uncertainty.
We had some delta earnings this morning kind of talking about forward guidance,
and we have a bunch of conferences going on
where we've heard different things.
I just want to get your thoughts on, like,
as we're heading into earnings season here
and what you're kind of expecting in that direction.
And if anything's changed today,
I mean, obviously something has,
but I'm curious if it's still underlying
the theme of uncertainty and cold guidance.
Well, I'm not really sure how much today.
I mean, you know, our view of this has been, and this predates, you know, even when you got the announcement, I guess it was a month or a month and a half ago now, for Canada, Mexico, China, the original big announcement over the weekend, and then it was reversed quickly on that Monday of the 25% and then the delay.
of the 25% and then the delay.
Even before that, our view had been that the back and forth, on again, off again tariff
policy is really actually what the problem is for the economy.
And when you think about, again, from a business standpoint, you know, businesses, if they
know the rules of the game, then they'll play the game.
If they don't know the rules and the guideposts are constantly changing, it's really tough
to operate in that environment.
And so I think at best in that kind of environment, it's really tough to operate in that environment. And so I
think at best in that kind of environment, it'll probably be revealed in earnings season. It'll
be interesting to see, yeah, how many companies either cut their guidance or just withdraw it
altogether. But the inability for businesses to make moves, I think that's probably best case
scenario where, yeah, you probably see things slow, slip into some sort of stagnation,
but you definitely don't get some kind of, you know, definitely not any kind of recessionary environment where things are breaking considerably.
Clearly, as of yesterday, that was the consensus.
Even for some people this morning, that was the consensus.
And then a lot of those calls have been reversed.
But I think that just the nature of this,
if it continues to be, there's delays, then new tariffs are put on, and then for other countries,
they're constantly adjusted. That, to me, I think is the more detrimental thing for businesses. In addition to the fact that none of us on, spaces or anyone we talk to, whether it's Wall Street or not,
nobody knows what the end game is of this.
You know, there's really no consistency in what the goals are.
You can go in the inner trade circle of the president, and they seem to all have different
ideas of what the end game is.
So I think that's the issue here, is that we're not really sure if there is such a focus
on tariff rates or trade deficits.
And those are two very different things.
But that's a really important distinction right now because the so-called reciprocal tariffs that were announced last week were based on trade deficits.
They were not based on tariff rates that other countries have.
trees have. So if we get a clear set of, you know, what the goals are, which I'm not sure if and when
we will, then I think things can become a little clearer. But I think the nature of what's happened
over the past week, you know, if you eventually change things enough, I just, my one concern,
or, you know, one of a couple, but my one concern would be that you lose the confidence generally of,
you know, corporate America, at least to
entrust that there's going to be some sort of, you know, set static rule book. But, you know,
that doesn't seem to be the case right now. I appreciate you getting us started in this one
here. I want to bring Brett into the conversation. Like I was saying earlier, Brett Winton, the
chief futurist over at ARK Invest. And you guys, obviously, your whole thing is thinking about long-term, five, ten-year, even plus time horizons.
And this tariff situation, everyone was talking about it in the short term.
And I'm just curious on what the last couple of days have been like for you guys and the type of research and what you guys are watching and just your thoughts on this market today.
what you guys are watching and just your thoughts on this market today.
And I appreciate you being there.
I mean, I think from an innovation perspective,
if you do end up in call it an economically choppy period,
which I think is a reasonable expectation.
In fact, I think we'll look back.
We're probably in recession right now and maybe even the tail end of a
rolling recession, given the, even leave aside the tariffs,
just cutting government spending, you know, mathematically translates into lower GDP.
And and you end up with more productive kind of output at the back end of that.
And when people disruptive innovation in particular is always in a market battle with the status quo.
If you are comfortable, if things are generally working, you don't make the hard choice of making
a change to something that will make you more productive. But if suddenly you're looking around
and the environment is much more volatile and you need to figure out how to get by with the same amount of staff rather than
taking on the risk of hiring, then you tell your people to use AI. Or if you're building a factory,
if you're saying, well, gosh, how can I onshore manufacturing cost effectively rather than relying
on cheap labor, then you're probably investing in automation equipment or humanoid robots or something like that. So I think that there's a, commonly what happens in innovation is the stocks
sell off hard just as the fundamentals are actually improving on a marginal basis relative
to their competitors in a much better way. And innovation stocks are like the, you know,
they're long duration, so they're heavily liquidity sensitive.
And so if you pull liquidity out of the market, which is what was happening with the basis trade blow up and everything, then innovation stocks will be disproportionately punished, typically.
And usually tend to lead the rebound cycle and rally harder off of the bottom than traditional cyclicals.
And then the other thing I'd say is on the AI-specific side, I'm thinking about if I'm an AI foundation model company
and I'm looking at where I'm going to build my data center today,
it seems to me that going somewhere like the Middle East and build a data center today, it seems to me that like going somewhere like the Middle East and build a data
center there and do your training in the Middle East. And then, you know, the CSV file you email
to yourself to your corporate headquarters in the US is not going to be subject to tariffs.
And you can kind of cleanly build out the data center without having to worry about the trade
relationship. Basically, you're by building a big training cluster, you're compressing all
of that computation into the model weights that are the AI model that comes off the back end.
So it almost can operate independently of geography, which is a difference in how
we can even treat compute and compute resource. And so I do think that technology allows companies to be a little more agile and
self-sovereign in terms of how they position themselves vis-a-vis geopolitical risk and
economic strategy. Can I ask you, I want to ask you a little bit about timelines. And, you know,
I imagine nothing's changed, if anything anything might have fed up but i just
want to get your current thoughts on like this it's ai randegist but also um we've had a lot
of conversations about on-shoring u.s manufacturing as we were talking about there and no optimist and
different humanoid robots and all that stuff comes up uh and it's excitement for for the the future
how long out do you think some of that future is um and do you think that's going to play in a lot of like the the role has elon been whispering trump's ear for the last little do you think some of that future is? Do you think that's going to play in a lot of the role?
Has Elon been whispering Trump's ear for the last little bit, you think?
Well, I think there's a few things.
I think that just from a geopolitical strategy perspective and given, I think it's appropriate
to think of these tariffs as specifically targeted against China and then people who
are operating outside of China, but then using another geography to basically launder the goods that are being produced. The drone manufacturer that
comes out of there is a strategic threat to the U.S. And the quadruped robots are a strategic
threat to the U.S. and that those are good platforms to get data to train humanoid robots. And I think at the limit, the rate pace of domestic production of humanoid robots is
really important strategically.
And so kind of trying to figure out a way to prevent US firms from being like, well,
we have this domestically produced humanoid robot or this Chinese one that they're selling
for a song.
They can do kind of the same stuff. oh, we have this domestically produced humanoid robot, this Chinese one that they're selling for a song.
It can do kind of the same stuff.
Why don't we just buy the Chinese manufactured one?
Because the Chinese government is probably heavily subsidizing production and R&D there.
That's something that is really important for U.S. strategic interests to guard against.
Optimist, Elon said they're going to produce 5,000 this year, I believe. The humanoid robot
forecast for us is the one that's moved the most forward over the last couple of years across all
of our technologies because the AI acceleration, you were software gated in terms of capability,
and it's looking like the capability improvement is going to happen more quickly than we expected. And on the order of 100,000 to a million humanoid robots by 2030 is roughly what we think is going to be in that you end up with basically capital.
You can substitute labor for capital.
So you can spend capital to generate manufacturing resource.
And then that resource can actually drive your retooling of whatever you need to do.
So back to the geostrategic interest, I saw a video of a shell production facility.
It was somewhere in the middle of the country that was,
I mean, it was almost like the people were hand carving out the steel.
They weren't, but they were like hand painting it.
And it just looked so archaic.
And, you know, the reality of what's happened in Ukraine
is it's demonstrated to us,
we need to be able to turn on a capital base
and spin up production of offensive
and defensive capability much more quickly than we can now. And having like a good capital base
of human-oriented robots is going to be critical to that and to just making all of the magical,
wonderful world of abundance type technological artifacts that we're all going to want and need.
of abundance type technological artifacts that we're all going to want and need.
And so I think that there is both kind of like, yes, Elon has probably been saying,
this is something we need to do.
And the Chinese government is going to try to flood the market with this stuff because
it's strategically interesting.
And I think that you obviously can't spend a factory in a month.
This is the end of the decade type stuff where these things become really meaningful to production rates.
I appreciate the thoughts there.
Brett will definitely circle back around.
We were talking a little bit about oil, and I already wanted to get over to Mr. Kevin Green on this one.
Who else to go next besides the senior markets correspondent from schwab network
when we got kevin uh from schwab on here so uh kevin mr oh there's two kevin's on here so kevin
green uh i'd love to throw your direction and hear what thoughts you have i don't know if you heard
mr gordon's thoughts from earlier but if you want to throw in his direction too after i i have not
heard mr gordon's thoughts kev uh good seeing you man glad to see you actually up here dropping
some knowledge though so um from the oil standpoint you're asking about oil yeah
oil give me all the other thoughts i just want your thoughts in general also on this turnaround
so let's start with oil and then turn around and then let's go to kevin gordon okay cool and i might
be getting some feedback so okay it's better now. From an oil standpoint, look, it's trying to recover. Obviously, the dynamics have changed. We kind of talked about this yesterday in space. Once he does capitulate or make a deal, however you want to look at it, that obviously is going to be a pretty decent rip to the upside here. Oil getting back to $65, I think is going to be fairly key.
ripped to the upside here. Oil getting back to $65, I think is going to be fairly key.
I'm a little bit skeptical though, of these moves for now. So let's just see if it sticks and holds.
If you look at the technicals and the candle structure, you look decent. Even if you're
looking at oil right now, candle structure is starting to look pretty decent. If you're looking
at the weekly, we can close that this way. Having golfing candles pretty much on everything.
So tomorrow or the next couple of days, you want to definitely see some follow through.
And I think that's going to be key to be able to recover.
So oil getting back above 65 is going to be major.
It's very hard to trade on that, though, right now because the options are so blown out.
I think tomorrow, the at-the- the money options for for crew right now i believe
we're going for like a buck 35 buck 50 which is very expensive that's uh you know 1 500 bucks if
you're if you're buying that just for a one day to expiration option so uh probably more of a spread
market when you get there and uh i think that uh once, we're just trying to recover.
S&P 500, very interesting move.
We just filled one gap.
We got another one up to the top here.
If we have, and I'll post this chart too, because I keep referring to it.
And I think this is nice that we can update it.
We have two channels since the all-time highs.
We're basically hitting the upper end of that resistance zone on that first primary channel. So that is something that is not only a good thing, but also something to just be mindful of if we do get any type of retracement back to the downside.
Market breadth looked good, obviously.
Price action looked good to the upside.
Massive short covering event taking place, probably new dollars taking place as well.
I'm not saying I'm bearish,
but I just want to see more price action
and get us above the 200-day.
That's just kind of where I'm at.
And so I don't know if you guys talk about policy,
but honestly, I think this is an out.
Yeah, I think this is more of an out than anything,
and that's okay, cool, whatever makes him feel great. But I don't
think that we've had any such a substantial wins. In fact, I think he's trying to create a trade
block to go at China. So I think that's really the thing that's kind of going on right now. And
let's see if that's going to be successful moving forward. We still have tariffs that are in place.
The 10% is still going to be something that's new for the United States. I still think over time that will, at least over the next six months, well, not six months, maybe
it's next eight months or so, the economy is going to still have to readjust for that. That
should actually still, you know, draw down consumer demand. And I think that putting a 90-day
hold probably puts you a little bit more at risk of inflation, still staying elevated for now.
And the yield move last night, I think, was the nail in the coffin. I mean, we were scratching our heads and honestly, it wasn't a foreign buyer. So you kind of scratch that off. Was somebody
getting ahead of it in the yield space for that type of move? Don't think that. I probably believe
now just based on this auction today that somebody probably did blow up yesterday.
We'll probably see the fall out of that in the news the next couple of weeks.
So that's where I'm at. And just keep moving forward. Right.
Be tactical with it. I think you need to have this market prove itself when it comes to price action and breath.
One day doesn't make a trend or change a trend. So you just keep on moving, man.
So I'll kick it back.
Appreciate you, Kevin.
Ryan, I saw you had your hand up before to ask Kevin Gordon a question.
Ryan, do we have you?
Yes, sorry.
My Wi-Fi has been going in and out here.
But yeah, Kevin, thank you for joining us.
I heard a little bit of your input to start, so that was great. If the trend continues and we don't really get much more
flip-flopping of policy, what sectors are you looking at and what areas of the market you think
are the best right now? So, well, I mean, the part of your question that says if we don't get more flip
flopping, I don't know how anybody can have any high degree of conviction on that in either
direction. I mean, it's just impossible to know that. So that aside, I think, you know, looking
through what has been relatively resilient in all of this, I mean, still some parts of financials,
you know, as crazy as it probably sounds, but some parts of financials, which we have had as an outperform, you know, leading into this,
have been, you know, relatively strong, even some parts of communication services,
especially if you were comparing that to consumer discretionary and tech as that,
you know, that three sector bundle that makes up the mag seven. And then the, the underperform that
we had going into this was consumer discretionary, not just because of the, you know, the outsized influence that,
that Tesla and Amazon have in that sector, which is, you know, that's the case for meta and alphabet
and comm services. It's the case for NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, and tech. But there was a lot
more sort of widespread weakness in, in that sector, especially because if you think about the, you
know, anything that's cyclical oriented in nature that relies a lot on inputs, but also relies a lot
on a labor force that has a higher share of immigrants, which that makes up a good chunk
of consumer discretionary. You know, those are the two areas that are being targeted most from
a policy standpoint. So if you're just doing the math and looking at where the hits are from what's being done at the policy level, there's probably more of a risk there.
So I think it's really tough. You know, that being said, I think it's tough to trade this in a sector way.
I mean, we've become much more factor focused as a firm over the past couple of years.
And what probably got crushed today, we'll see how it ends when everything refreshes in my Bloomberg.
But I'm assuming what got crushed today is the more defensive safety stuff that had been working,
like low volatility and low beta and probably to some extent strong free cash flow.
That had been everything that had been working even when the drawdown started on February 19th.
So I'm assuming given the rapidity of the reversal today,
that's probably what got crushed the most. But I still think in an environment where,
you know, the soft data has been rolling over, still have to confirm whether that's going to
lead and filter over to the hard data. But, you know, now that we're getting into earnings season,
if the anecdotes, but also the earnings outlooks themselves are not as strong,
then you can't rule out more of a slowdown in the economy. I think ultimately, you know, the market would
probably reflect that. So, you know, will it take a little bit longer for that to get sifted out
because of days like yesterday and today? Yeah. But I think that eventually we'll get more clarity.
So I'd be much more factor focused than than I would sector-focused at this point,
especially when you still have such a large mega-cap influence.
Even though the MAG-7's down considerably from its peak,
they still make up a huge portion of the index
and of their own respective sectors.
And then I know you tweeted about it a little bit earlier this morning,
but do you think there'll be any impact
tomorrow on tomorrow's CPI, or are we more just waiting until next month and the following month?
Yeah, I don't know if there will be a huge, I mean, of course, if there's a out of consensus
move, then sure. But I think that probably I would say you need to wait until the summer to
see more of a material impact. But that's also assuming that tariffs rates stay relatively elevated, because then we'll
get a better sense of how much this is feeding through into the consumer side versus how
much of it is just staying on the input side.
So that'll be revealed through either weaker margins or higher consumer prices.
It's going to come out one way or the other.
I think at the end of the day, I'm kind of in the camp that it doesn't really matter
which channel it moves through.
I think it's still a net negative, especially because consumers today in this cycle just don't have the stomach for higher prices that they did pre-pandemic or pre-inflation in 21 and 22.
So if you're going to see higher prices charged and that price level gets nudged higher again, I would expect a little bit more consumer backlash, especially because the labor market is just not in the same place as it was a couple of years ago.
really short period of time. That was happening alongside a really magnificent labor market
recovery. And even after that, we went through, I guess, what you would almost definitionally call
a soft landing where inflation was rolling over, the unemployment rate was stabilizing and moving
sideways, which is very unusual to see in history. But we also had solid GDP growth.
So in inflation adjusted terms. So that was almost the perfect soft landing picture.
Now you've moved out of that environment where you do have more wobbles than labor, but you also just don't have the stomach for higher inflation.
So I think that's going to be, you know, more of a more of a pain point.
Not that it'll, you know, again, not that to my earlier comments, not that it'll launch us into a recession overnight.
But I think that's what can contribute more to that sort of stagnation
uh that we found ourselves in in the 2018 to 2019 period
can i spread perfect i was coming to you if you want to go yeah actually i was just thinking from
the innovation perspective it's kind of um if you're looking for like a beaten down sector
that shouldn't have its in demand changed by, but actually should have the macro play in its favor.
It's more in the multi-omics biotech space.
Biotech has been on the, I don't know,
seems like an eternal bear market in biotech,
like four and a half years or so.
And particularly for any kind of small cap drug development company
delivering cures for rare diseases.
It's just been the biggest determinant.
Even producing good data on an asset, stocks have traded down if they have less than 24
months of cash on balance sheet because people have concluded, oh, well, if you produce good
data, you're going to have to spend more to get to market.
And so that's bad. And so it's really the longest duration pool. I think what's going to happen macroeconomically here is, you know, this uncertainty plus government spending
cutback probably does, you know, like, as it turns out, we'll look back, we're in recession,
you know, and there's a 50% chance on polymarket that there's a recession this year so what will
happen well we've taken away the um kind of rat poison that's this tariff threat at least for 90
days um but it'll give how all kinds of room to put liquidity into the market and so if you combine
the ftc no longer preventing any emanate from happening at all with um kind of actually a more lenient and looser fed uh then
um balance sheet um skinny companies that have um that are selling into markets where there's
no problem about in demand even in the event of recession are like actually an interesting place
to go uh where in particularly because i mean the you know people don't think of us as a value manager.
I see us as investors in deep value.
It's the value of the intangible assets that are mispriced by traditional market participants.
Well, here, I have almost never in my career seen such obviously easy underwrites once they get to market.
As in, the potential cash flow characteristics of some
of these cures for disease. It's just not modeled well by the street. And it's because there's been
no incentive to model it well. Basically, you would have been better off just like stack ranking
all of the biotech companies by how much cash they have on the balance sheet,
overweighting the most cash, underweighting the least cash,
and you would do yards better than any other
actually knowing what's going on in the underlying asset strategy
for the past few years.
And so there just hasn't been the reward to actually underwrite.
And if there's kind of more liquidity,
so they have like a little more capital markets
leniency, and if there's even a strategic buyer out there, like pharma scoops one up,
then the entire sector will begin to reprice based upon kind of the fundamental value that
you can get in two or three years on just the commercialization of these assets.
in two or three years on just the commercialization of these assets.
Appreciate that, Brett.
Definitely feel free, everyone, to jump in.
These kind of conversations best work when someone's speaking, just jump in, smart people
talking to some other smart people.
So, yeah.
Actually, I can jump in.
So, Kevin Gordon, do you think the Fed is going to have to discount some of this data over the next couple of weeks or, you know, let's say weeks or months as well, just because of maybe the knee jerk reaction before tariffs being put in place and then what we might see after the fact?
the nature with which all of the Fed expectations and what their next move is going to be and when
the first cut is, how much that has shifted even from yesterday to today, the Fed almost looks
like they've been in the good spot of not doing anything and not saying that they're going to
adjust policy anytime soon. I think that, I mean, you know, being in a supply shock driven
environment, which is what we're definitely in,iffs and their nature, the nature of tariffs is their
supply shock. They hurt more on the supply side. That's pretty much the worst place you could be
from a central bank's perspective. So I think that, unfortunately, the Fed is in a bit of a
lose-lose because if you signal that you're going to start cutting rates, but at the same time,
prices go up, at least in the near term, because of the mechanical effect of tariffs.
But eventually that slows growth.
They almost look wrong on both sides, where you're cutting as prices go up.
And then you maybe have to reverse course or pause.
But then if growth slows and the labor market weakens, if I were to probably zero in on anything in particular over the past week, I think Powell's comments last Friday in the afternoon as the S&P was off by, you know, 5 percent, him saying that they're not going to, you know, they're going to wait and see and they're not going to rush to do anything.
I took a lot away from that. And I think that, you know, it reminds me, too, of, you know, he spoke in an economics club of New York lunch in December of 2018.
And if anyone on this remembers that clearly that was a pain point for the market, almost down by 20 percent.
And his comment specifically about, you know, the Fed not stepping in just because of financial market volatility.
It's when financial system stability becomes an issue that they that they have to step in.
system stability becomes an issue that they have to step in. And I think in this case,
if we were to have some financial accident, if there's a whale that comes up to the surface
because of what happened in the past week, excluding today, or even today because of
short positioning, then if that leads to more of a financial accident, then yeah, I could see the
Fed stepping in and having to do something in the short term to stem some of the bleeding.
But I wouldn't confuse that with this notion that they're going to be, you know, injecting all this liquidity into the market
because they can't solve a tariff issue and they can't really solve an issue that's, you know, originating from effectively one person.
And that is basically at the mercy of that one person.
So that to me puts them automatically kind of on the back foot and really just
unfortunately repeating the same line, you know, unfortunately for a lot of people because, you
know, they want to hear something different, but repeating the same line of we're just going to
follow the data. So I, you know, I don't think unless things magically stabilize, especially
from a growth perspective or growth forecasting perspective, I should say, I think that they're
probably going to be in this really unfortunate reactive spot. So I'm still in the camp today
that there's probably fewer cuts than are expected maybe at the consensus level this year,
but that could obviously change on any given day.
I appreciate that.
Brett, is the Fed something that you're watching specifically on how that might affect money over the next little bit?
I certainly have a different opinion on whether or not they're going to cut. But ultimately, you know, I think what's interesting and kind of the innovation side is it's like,
regardless of what the Fed does, some of these kind of like assets will begin to generate
undeniable cash flow that Wall Street will have to pay for.
Like Tesla's going to, you know, it's pretty clear they're going to launch a robo-taxi service
in June of this year in Austin and in multiple cities in the U.S. by the end of the year.
And that kind of transforms how their cash flow looks.
that because of the way the CPI is measured, actually productive economic production is
mismeasured as inflation because you're not basically accounting for innovation in the right
way. So to give you a tangible example, if you look at the food away from home CPI number,
CPI number that includes you paying for a Chipotle burrito and the DoorDash delivery charge to
deliver you that burrito, right? And so actually, you're buying two things. You're buying food,
and you're buying that driver's time and them driving and delivering it to you. And so as it
turns out, the Chipotle burrito costs you whatever, $25 instead of $15.
And the Fed says, wow, gosh, food inflation is really going crazy here.
It's not.
People are actually acquiring.
There's more real production there. It's a production of the food away from home category and a separate unmeasured production
of food delivery services.
And so from but ultimately what's going to happen to that food delivery driver?
It's going to be delivered by drone, by zipline. It's going to be delivered by a robo-taxi. So
actually, the cost of that ostensible inflation is going to collapse and be driven down by
technological deflation. I think you're going to see that across a bunch of different
categories. And so there should be a structural kind of suppression of inflation on a go-forward
basis that either on the actually successfully accounting for what's happening macroeconomically,
or as these technologies enter the marketplace where it's like you can go from taking an Uber
ride for $2.50 to taking a robo taxi ride for a dollar. You know, there's going to be kind of a
lot of structural deflation in the system that then gives the Fed a lot more leeway than they're
being credit for, given credit for. I appreciate you there, Brett. kevin i know you got until uh about another 10 minutes here so i want
to make sure we get at least one or two more questions over to you and then brett and then
let you guys each get some final remarks this has been awesome uh i appreciate the the kind
of different perspectives uh from this so definitely appreciate you guys joining in
ryan i can default to you first if you have something, but I have a question or two.
No, you're good.
You asked your question, Evan.
Okay, awesome.
It was kind of mentioned in there about the recession odds.
There's been a lot of back and forth on this one.
Obviously, these kind of odds we're talking about on betting markets are the technical definition of it.
I know Jamie Dimon has come out and said a lot of things., you know, he thinks we might already be in a recession if you're talking to CEOs.
So I just want to get your thoughts on just like taking a step back from like everything we have going on. The actual economy, the U.S. recession, like how much damage has already been done no matter how much we pull back from here is kind of what I want to ask you about, Kevin.
I mean, yeah, it's tough to say because it's happening so fast.
That's why I think that probably by the summer, you know, you start to see it maybe show up more.
But, you know, the funny thing about recessions, nothing funny about the recession itself, but the timing of it.
You know, if we're going into recession, then we're already in one. And I say that because when the NBER comes out and dates recessions,
when they announce it, they go back to the peak in activity and they say, that's when the start
of it was. That's when the end of, you know, the prior cycle ended. So they're always late
in announcing it. And in many cases, they're incredibly late. So, you know, when we had the
recession that started in December of 2007, it wasn't until December of 2008 that they made the announcement. Clearly, there was enough
data pointing us in that direction by that time. But, you know, if we're in one, then it's already
kind of forming around us. And I think that's why Larry Fink made that comment at the Economics
Club, you know, earlier this week, that when he talks to CEOs, we're probably in some form of it.
I think that, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if we were in some form of a growth recession right now, which is a little bit
milder. And it's really just if growth slows enough to kind of get you to that, you know,
just above zero line, you don't go outright negative and you don't start to see mass job
losses. But, you know, when you look at the common thread definitively across all recessions,
because they all have different flavors, it's definitely the labor market.
So if you start to see a huge pickup in claims and you do start to see that drift higher in the unemployment rate, that would definitely give us more, you know, more reason to believe that we're in one.
reversal of it. But if you do start to see a longer drawn out bear market and you don't recover,
and this does morph into something that's more protracted, more so in duration, not necessarily
in depth, although I think depth is important. That to me, I think is actually a bigger,
you know, maybe indicator or needle mover for a recession. Because if you look at household
exposure to equities, we're right near an all-time high with the Fed data that we have going back to the 50s.
If you look at household stock allocation, so just where they're allocated in terms of
assets, that's at an all-time high. In the peak of 2000, it was at 40%.
As of the fourth quarter of 2020, it was at 48%.
So there's much more of a wealth effect, and I think a lot of debate
I've seen on social media or even TV has been this way Main Street versus Wall Street thing are two separate things.
They're not two separate things. I mean, a lot of people, you know, own equities in their social markets and the ownership over time has gone up significantly over the past few years.
Every single income decile has seen an increase in stock ownership. So, you know, there's a wealth effect that does take play or take place. And you could argue, actually, that that was the driver of the
recession that we had in 2001. And, you know, if you go back and look at that recession,
I find it fascinating because the bear market lasted from March of 2000 to October of 2002.
But the recession itself was from March of 2001 to November of 01. So contrary to popular
belief, it was not caused by 9-11. The end of it was sort of only a couple of months after 9-11.
That was kind of what exacerbated the move down in the economy at the end. But it was a relatively
short and shallow economic recession. I think of it more as a recession in the market because of
the tech bust and how long it took for that to
ultimately flush out. So I think that I'd look for more similarities to that. Not that I think
we're in the midst of some epic two-year bear market, but I think that if this lasts longer
and if it takes longer for us to recover, then you could see an instance where the economic data and
the spending data actually slow because of the weakness
in the market. So those tentacles, I think, are much stronger today than they even were, you know,
five years ago. I think it's helpful to think about within the context of both these market
and business cycles, where is the hidden leverage that has embedded in the system on the basis of people believing that things are going to just keep to
happening. And I looked at during the ICO boom in 2017, I put out this thread just talking about
how these tokens were raising capital and then they were investing that capital in Ethereum when they
raised capital. It was being raised in Ethereum, but then remaining in Ethereum. So even though
they would raise a lot, and then the ostensible market cap leverage on the amount raised would
be very high, there was actually not much new money needing to come into the system to inflate the bubble.
And so you ended up with, it wasn't explicit leverage as in they were borrowing from banks.
It was implicit leverage in that kind of like the function of operating or how they were operating
was creating kind of like this leverage moment in the market. And so similarly in the dot-com bubble, where Yahoo
was priced based on the eyeballs that accrued, and the value of those eyeballs was based upon
people taking their IPO proceeds and paying for Yahoo ads with them. And their IPOs were driven
by the fact that they would get eyeballs that were as valuable as Yahoo's.
And so there was this leverage.
The metrics that you were paying attention to were kind of leveraged on top of themselves.
And so you created this inflation.
Well, so what has happened over the last particularly three, four years that people just are counting on, that they think is going to happen. And one belief I have is the idea that the tech monopolists are always going to win,
at least within the technology space. That if you look at kind of the peak, take Apple as an example.
Apple is in huge, terrible, awful strategic trouble with regards to AI right now.
They are so behind.
They have just delayed their Apple intelligence product by perhaps two years.
The thing that they were using to sell new iPhones, they're like washing over that by
saying, oh, we're remaking iOS.
It's like just sort of like cosmetic redesign.
They clearly are not set up for what is going to be, I think, a monumental technology transition.
And you would think, given how they botched the Vision Pro, both from an engineering perspective and from a kind of market penetration perspective, and that Apple intelligence has just like
totally flopped.
And meanwhile, they've poisoned the well with their developer community.
You would think, oh my gosh, that must be a company that the stock market is very skeptical
No, it's like at a near all-time high in EBITDA.
You have to go back to like the pre-iPhone era to find a time where it was kind of in a more expensive EBITDA regime.
And then it was because, you know, they didn't have any EBITDA to speak of, right?
So the market is treating Apple as if it is a sure bet than it's almost ever been.
And I think there is more outcome dispersion on a forward basis in Apple from here than there's probably been since the launch of the iPhone.
So how do you reconcile those things?
Well, this is the way to get exposure to innovation.
It's a huge slug of the core indices.
People think that these companies are in this astounding strategic position where even with huge execution
errors, they can't lose. Well, they can. And I think, so I think actually there could be a real
restructuring of the market out of some of the MAG-6 into a broader set of innovation actors
who are coming and chipping away at them.
And I think that you talk about the US investors and their exposure to the equity market.
A lot of their exposure is to, one, it's to companies that are potentially at risk of being disrupted by disruptive innovation.
Two, including tech companies that they think are good innovation exposures, where there
is a real state of rot in kind of like the strategic positioning
of some of those companies.
Yeah, I mean, you know, I don't cover individual companies,
so I'm not an analyst that pays attention to the particular nuances
of any particular company.
But I think probably, I mean, I think back to when we wrote our outlook for 2024, not
for 2025.
But a key part of that, because of the massive run that you had seen in the AI narrative
and the stocks associated with the mega caps that were at the heart of that narrative,
our view at the time and the research that we were doing was just more so kind of giving a lot more support in that media because the technology had been rapidly developed and more discoverable by the kind of the average person, especially from a chat GPT sense and that kind of igniting the whole narrative or accelerating it.
the whole narrative or accelerating it, our view had been that there was probably going
to be more of a shift from the AI creators to the adopters, at least in market terms
where the playing field was going to be more leveled, not from a tech perspective in terms
of all these companies becoming creators, but if you were kind of thinking about it
in equal weight versus cap weight terms for an index like the S&P 500, there are times
when you go through these periods of almost, you know, max
concentration where, you know, whether it's the top five or the top 10 names in the index
make up a huge portion of the index itself. After that, you tend to get this, and I say tend to,
but we really don't have a big sample size, so huge caveat there. But in prior cycles where
that's happened, you know, there's been more
of an easing of that froth where over time and over the next handful of years, their dominance
has faded as equal weighted indexes have done better. And I think that, you know, up until,
you know, the bear market or the correction that we had been in, you know, that started in February,
there had been, you know, a pretty
significant outperformance at the equal weighted level for sectors in the S&P and the S&P 500
itself in an equal weighted sense had been doing well. And actually, what's interesting too,
you know, we brought up and talked about the tech bust earlier for the initial phases of the bear
market that started in 2000, the equal weighted S&P actually did quite well. So it was really
driven by, and it's, you know, obvious becauseP actually did quite well. So it was really driven by,
and it's obvious because it was a tech bust and because it was mainly one sector driving it, but there was more to be gained for the rest of the market, at least in relative terms,
even though things eventually fell for everybody by the time the bear market ended.
But I don't think any two periods are the same. I think if anything in our, you know, we have 40 million clients. So for me to say this is the way it should be for every single client, you know, that'd be irresponsible. But if you were kind of taking a step back and looking at your exposure and if you've gotten too exposed to one particular sector or one particular group of names, we had been at the camp almost a year ago from now, especially when we were writing the outlook, you know, of don't be afraid to trim gains around that and kind of find other places that can benefit from any kind of AI technology.
And we had particularly honed in on industries that had thin margins and could potentially really benefit from, especially on the cost side, from a lot of these technologies.
the cost side, you know, from a lot of these technologies, you know, and it's not a particular
call on an industry, but things that come to mind are autos or airlines or, you know,
grocery chains that just don't have a lot of leeway, you know, with their costs and can at
times get hit really hard, especially in supply shock driven environments when they just don't
have the ability to fight that. So that's kind of how we think about it from, you know,
broader macro equal-weighted
versus cap-weighted perspective. And we've looked at, if you look at, there's an overall innovation
index that basically captures the aggregate market capital disruptive innovation. If you look at the scare of that prior to kind of like the financial or the COVID explosion, they were roughly a third
and a third going back to like 2014, roughly. And then, you know, there's the rally across
all tech and 21. And they traded up alongside that and traded at higher multiples, everything
out all of the smaller and mid-cap
companies that had thinner balance sheets all fell back.
And so now those six companies occupy, it's roughly, it's 60%, a little more than 60%,
at least last I checked, this is as of a few weeks ago, maybe a month ago, of disruptive
innovation.
And if you look at our high-level forecasts at the technology level,
we actually think there's a lot of compounding opportunity across innovation. And we underwrite
them as an aggregate as doing pretty well, but losing share to basically fall back to that
ex-ante share of innovation over time.
And I think that there's all kinds of reasons.
You know, you go company by company.
It's like Google is an incredibly interesting company with incredibly talented researchers
and an amazing, you know, data resource that they have access to.
And search is right in the crosshairs of what AI can do.
And actually, Google is like my third look now,
right? I started ChatGPT. I'm doing high-end processing. Occasionally, I flex out to Google because I need a very specific fact to pull in, right? But it no longer is the place that research
starts. And if you think about extrapolating, well, what is research like when a consumer buys a product
that's a research task right and they and so currently snapsquores they start at amazon or
start at google but uh if you like shift that into a purchasing ai purchasing agent or language model
driven query you know that puts their whole franchise, at least from a cash flow perspective,
at risk. I mean, Search is the motivating engine that allows them to waste all of their wonderful
money on all of their side projects that never seem to come to fruition. And so you strip that
away and you end up with YouTube, which is a great franchise, but maybe it's not a $3 trillion
franchise. And you end up with what
was search, but is under a sudden strategic threat. And meanwhile, the mega cap tech companies
are trading again as if, oh, well, they've got this thing sewn up. We think there's a massive,
massive expansion of technology's impact on the world coming.
And so I can understand why people are like, well, I should be exposed to this big tech company, therefore.
But that expansion, it's almost too big for them.
It could be so monumental that it overturns the little robo
that's kind of toddling along in the immature technology scene right now.
Brad, can I ask you about semiconductors and NVIDIA's role in this?
I don't know how specifically we can get into like actually like the buys and sells or whatever,
but I just want to get your thoughts on, you know, the AI industry.
There's been some reports about data centers, about is Microsoft pulling back, whatever,
different stuff.
I just want to get your thoughts in that direction right now.
Sure.
So like AI compute, the world is heavily short AI compute.
I don't think there's any doubt about that.
As far as I know, well, anyway, we have a quite aggressive published forecast and the
chips itself, it goes from like 200 billion or so this year to around 800, 900 billion by 2030.
In our 200 billion is roughly the 2024 number.
So called a four and a half fold increase in chip demand.
And there's reasons to believe that's even too conservative.
So like, and when DeepSeek came out and people said, oh, you can generate these models much
less expensively. You don't need as many chips to generate them, that obviously ignores the fact that, well, no, actually, well, yes, you can do that.
But the evidence so far is every time these models have improved in performance per cost, you haven't shrunk the market.
You've massively expanded the market. I mean, OpenAI is reputedly going to do $12 or $13 billion in
revenue this year, up from on the order of three, four last. And that's on the basis of there being
a huge cost decline in this market. And other competitors are even growing more quickly than they are probably. And so you and OpenAI is short compute.
Like I was generating an image of Trump coming in to stab the stock market like Vincent Vega
in Pulp Fiction with an adrenaline needle today.
And it took a while to generate because ChatGPT doesn't have enough compute to offer me to
generate that image. And so I think that you will have structural demand for chips.
NVIDIA, in particular, we think is going to lose share over time.
There's Tesla's investing in its own chips.
Meta's investing in its own chips.
OpenAI is reputedly thinking of investing in its own chips.
Amazon already has its own chips.
Google already has its own chips. During times of technological transition, optimum strategy is to vertically
integrate because if you wait for a supplier to spin up and provide you with a resource on
your critical path, then you're stuck with all your competitors at the same time. And so I think
that's going to happen across the space where everybody's going to try to get all the way to the endpoint consumer from the chip that's operating in AI.
And so it means that NVIDIA, a remarkable company that should see good demand tailwinds, could face margin pressure over time.
You know, semis is not a space that lends itself to structurally great margins.
And instead, it's highly cyclical.
And I think that I get super nervous when people feel like there's a secular winner
that is not going to face kind of the cyclical nature of the industry.
And so I think that there will probably be, you know, some choppy waters at some point.
And, you know we it still
underwrites well for us so it's not that we are naked nvidia uh it's just that they're
kind of more interesting and better spots to play as well
i appreciate you brett we're coming in here on the on the hour that we booked you for we would
love to have you on for as long as possible but i want to make sure we get a little bit of kind of closing remarks or
anything,
or just anything you want to make sure that you got out there and we're
excited to talk about on this station here.
Wait for me or for,
for Mike?
Yeah.
For you,
Brad.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean,
I think that people are unintentionally short innovation.
I think that in their core portfolios, they hold a bunch of companies that are probably
counter-exposed to everything that's going on the tariff side and counter-exposed to
disruptive innovation.
If you own, you know, like take shipping across the country.
Oh, well, if we're kind of entering recession, shipping is going to decline.
And if you own a core index, you own freight rail.
In fact, you own, there's hundreds of billions of dollars of freight rail fixed assets in the US, heavily indebted.
Well, you get a chunk of that when you own a core index.
And it's a great asset.
It prints cash until EV autonomous trucks can produce,
can get things across the country packetized on a ton mile competitive basis, which is what we think is going to
happen as kind of autonomous trucking takes off.
And suddenly those rail lines don't look nearly as cash flowy, but the debt stays.
And so there's this like smoldering crater in a core portfolio. Well, to just risk complete your portfolio, you have to have a good exposure to innovation. And I think that that's it's kind of something that's told to people over time because people feel like, hey, well, I own, you know, Apple, therefore I'm good. I think that's actually a really dangerous kind of like cognitive position to occupy. Because when, you know, tariff policy happens quickly, technology transitions also
happen quickly, where the companies that seem like they were, you know, the all time winners,
the IBMs of the world, you know, are suddenly getting, you know, torpedoed by Microsoft,
and then Microsoft is getting torpedoed by Apple.
Well, we're in another one of those transitional stages where there's a new user interface for how
we operate with technology, and it's going to transform the technological landscape,
and not just in core tech, but then across the economy and transportation,
and kind of like the health service and multi-omics side and manufacturing. And so, you know, I think that almost like perhaps in response to recessionary impulses
from tariff policy, but I think that the kind of innovation uptake is going to only accelerate
here.
And so it's a way to build long-term wealth.
I appreciate you,
Brett,
for joining us.
We got a wild day going on in the market.
There's crazy stuff,
conversations going on,
and I hope we get you back on and we can dig into some of these topics a
little bit deeper,
but definitely appreciate you joining us today.
If anyone up here wasn't following Brett or Kevin too,
once we close this down,
there will be a recording.
And if you're like,
that guy said something awesome.
I can't find him.
Both of them will be able to easily be found found up here so i appreciate you guys for joining
and you should make sure you're following both of them and all the other amazing speakers up here
like i said feel free to to hang out with us for as long as you can shy i want to loop you into the
conversation though uh we were talking a little bit about it tech and innovation and i know that
we're going into your world there um what a turnaround today
how you doing shy i appreciate you uh hearing brett talk i'm like why am i not working at arc
there's this thing everything i'm preaching like the pillars of my investing strategy uh i mean i
agree with everything they were saying and i've just been a pretty big apple bear for quite some
time but they have just so much they're a financial engineering company
we don't have to get to it too much but they should be able to capitalize on consumer ai uh
if you're calm i don't know if you should have the confidence in their ability to do so but they're
in a great position to capitalize and we'll see if they actually do it but regarding today what a
massive move like it's it's unfortunate if you aren't in a position people will be in front
of screens and you have like a you have to be away from screen just a couple hours your position
accordingly then all of a sudden this is like always the biggest fear and where one tweet can
cause a face melting rally and that's exactly what we got today this is like i'm looking at video game numbers right now qq is up 12 like tesla rock lab like every every palantir like nvidia's i didn't
wow i didn't even see nvidia's up 18 as well like everything is up a ridiculous amount today
and me i think it's because a lot of times a lot of people were off sides on uh their positioning
when the boat tilts too much on one side then most likely won't happen uh i will say this
was somewhat of um i was skeptical the past couple rounds you've had i've been very open saying that
these aren't confidence rallies these are pure technical bounces, some short covering.
But I do think that today was something different because we finally got some guidance from POTUS.
You can say where he – it showed that today –
Nothing like Price to Change sentiment.
No, it's not Price to Change sentiment.
No, I'm not knocking'm not i'm not knocking
you i'm not knocking you i'm just saying oh yeah i'm sure in general it's hard it's hard to look
at an eight percent move and not say that no a hundred percent but like i also been in adding
like as uh sam logic are aware i had an 18 cash position i was down to four or five percent
been adding but uh either way today it did feel like somewhat of like the market finally responded
something they've been starving for, which was a signal.
Like we finally got some kind of signal from Trump where I don't think the volatility is
over.
Like it's not, there's going to be more volatility.
The can got kicked down a couple of months.
So I do, but because this was more of a material shift in tone, and I do think it's somewhat
because this was more of a material shift in tone and i do think it's somewhat in policy
in policy.
so this is like the first time in months that there is somewhat of a way to price
in pricing direction where you don't have to just react to the noise you can actually
react to something that matters and it feels like this gives companies a window to adapt
if that makes sense like we have 90 days or not by we i'm saying enterprises have 90 days or not by we, I'm saying enterprises have 90 days to adjust accordingly.
And I think people maybe were thinking that this initial deadline in April was a bluff
and it became a reality and it happened way quicker than people anticipate.
But now we have three months, three months to prepare.
That's enough of a time window to have a sandbox to control your risk going forward.
And it also gives investors something that we haven't had in a while,
which is something, a reason to start modeling forward again.
Like this is like,
we don't have to have so much unpredictability in the near term.
Things are still effective.
Like this is not, I don't think we're having a V-shaped recovery.
Like I really don't think that we're going to go all time highs this year.
Like that's not something I'm claiming right now.
And Q's, they ended at 468. gonna go all-time highs this year like that's not something i'm claiming right now and cues they
ended at 468 uh the 200 moving average for cues is 493 so like we have still ways to go before
you should before you can get be oh blue skies ahead and we're clear but we got somewhat of
a sandbox and i think that's nice to see and like vishal's right like how can you ignore a move like today like narrative falls price action i think a lot of
people are finally hopeful that the worst isn't like we have the near-term bottom and then hopefully
that the egos can work themselves out but yeah i, I think there is going to be somewhat of a squeeze.
I don't think the squeeze is over.
I think this technical balance is going to continue.
I think that the volume is there.
I think that we were so oversold in the daily and weekly chart.
Like, I think at one point on the daily chart, we were at 20.
Yeah, I think we're at 20 in the Qs.
And even on the weekly chart, we're at 20. uh yeah i think we're at 20 in the queues and even on the weekly chart we're at 25. now it's more it's after this massive move like it's definitely uh getting
better but we destroyed a couple like we destroyed a lot of things past like two months like there's
gonna there's gonna be some time to recover and today was positive news that's all you can say
it was very positive news we're not in the clear yet uh earning season is going to be an
absolute mess i do i wonder what the guidance uh commentary on guidance is going to be this
earning cycle though that's what i'm interested in because the three month can being kicked down
the road like that does give somewhat of a light on them being able to control
their risk and the mediates i do believe that full year guidances will not be provided i still
i'm on that camp because you just don't know when tariffs are going to double um or adjust just in
a couple weeks a couple months but either way um today is a great day for Longs. So I'll pass it back to you, Evan.
Did you buy anything today?
Yeah, I used all my cash right away when I saw the headline.
And I put in ad tech names and software names of consumption models.
And what else did I bet?
Yeah, I really went pretty hard in ad, actually, ad tech names.
Because they were just
getting punished to the extent of like whoa if there's no like near-term recession fears like
actually it's getting kicked down the count kick their camp got kicked down the road and like
it's actually not gonna be as severe as anticipating the near term like a lot of those names were way
oversold like trade desk was hit 40 bucks I think um and then you saw like Reddit
today trade desk Magni like a lot of the app love and like they're just those are the names I think
are going to probably have a near-term balance I also I'm throwing unity in there people are
disrespecting the vector offering that they are introducing this year that is going to create an
Apple of them like competitive competing product and they have a duopoly in the gaming engine.
So they're in a good place to create some ad value and ads tech of their business that
I don't think it's being priced for because they've had poor corporate governance in the
past, but it's a new C-suite.
So I think that you kind of need to approach them with a new lens and let's see how they
deliver.
And so far, they've done a great job past year cutting the fat and reorganizing the company to be at a place where
they can actually do some growth initiatives uh but yeah other than that i added some software
names consumption models and now i i'm probably gonna be done adding and i'm gonna be raising
cash every single week until earnings season really gets heated up in a couple weeks i do see your hand up sam but i want to go over to uh kantor i appreciate you shy there
um got mr michael kantor joining us up up here chief investment strategist over at piper sandler
been on the spaces yesterday today's a very different day than yesterday uh mr kantor
any thoughts you want to add in? What made you click up? Well, you invited me, so I figured I'd join in.
Honestly, you don't have to always join up,
but whenever we see the smart people in the crowd,
we invite them up.
Not that the people who don't get the invite aren't smart, but yes.
I tried to back my way out of it.
I just sent out a couple of invites, guys.
Totally thought you were smart before.
Targeted tariffs only.
Okay.
Well, yeah.
I mean, the market got the news it needed to reprice risk again.
And I don't think we're going back to where we were.
I don't think we're going to zero tariffs, uh, somewhere, you know, we're still going
to have a bunch of tariffs.
And so, you know, the market's just going to reprice risk.
Uh, probably a lot of it got done today.
Um, but the, you know, the worst case scenario is that everyone was harping on, on spaces
like the last week and a half, uh, um, you know, worst case scenario is that everyone was harping on on spaces like the
last week and a half uh you know trying to figure out how bad things are going to be
uh is i think off the table or is off the table so um in in a way i would say the low is in and
but there's you know i don't think we're v v ving back to the the top anytime
soon uh rates are still you know on people's radar now we've we've still got uh china tariffs we now
have 10 tariffs otherwise and uh we're gonna have to take it 90 days at a time i want to ask you
though you kind of said
like you think think and then they were actually off do you actually trust that that worst case
scenario is off the table or is it still kind of priced in there obviously listen with what we've
seen you can never go 100 but um do you actually trust that you think that worst case scenario
is off the table i believe the worst case scenario is off the table? I believe the worst case scenario is off the table.
I don't think we're going back to those current expectations as of noon today, in terms of
that, all the tariffs.
Yes, I think a recession is off the table.
I think the panic is off the table.
This is what was being priced in,
uh, and getting increasingly worse up until up until now. I mean, this was the tricky part
about this whole situation was that it was all, and it still is largely, halfway, uh, policy
dependent, but no, I think, uh, we're not going to go back to where we, where we, where we were.
That's my view. I could be wrong I know I agree I agree stock talk though you want to want to jump in with a question thought yeah
I felt like my my biggest takeaway from today and I don't know what you agree with this and I agree
I think recession odds drop pretty dramatically today not only on wall street uh goldman pulled their recession
forecast and but on betting markets as well they fell pretty precipitously um you know from 65 to
50 so i agree with that but to me the biggest takeaway was the idea that you know we were sort
of talking about this yesterday when i asked you and a couple of others on the panel what you
thought the out was or the escape route was from that policy and
most people kind of you know felt that the it was pretty cloudy the out the the outlook and
i think today what changed is maybe that a concession was made by the white house that
even they aren't immune to market pressure and that you know if you start getting moves in the
bond markets like you saw
last night that even they'll cave and so I guess that's a positive takeaway right that gives markets
reassurance that there is a Trump uh yeah I don't know I mean sure it's a I mean I guess Trump put
Trump pivot um but yeah I mean I I agree I didn't think Trump uh was gonna fold on its on his own
unless you know I think we were talking about this yesterday, like something broke, either, you know, something globally broke and or, you know, there was clearly concern.
You heard from Besson this morning, you know, he commented on the bond market and the moves we were seeing that something was, you know, beginning to break.
seeing uh that something was you know beginning to break and you know who knows you know maybe
we'll get more clarity on what uh more specifically they were focused on at some point in time or
maybe pal will talk about it at some uh at some coming uh speaking event but yeah i think um
that we got to that point and uh it's usually you know i i think i was talking about the context of
credit markets but you know it's the the bond markets are much bigger than the equity markets
and far more important yep but i think that was proved that was proved last night as well you
know with that with that pressure it didn't seem like the the move down the equity markets in a
vacuum was bothering him.
Once the bond markets got involved,
then they were forced to change
course. And so, yeah,
I agree. I think the base case
has softened. I think that's a positive
takeaway. I think there's
been an acknowledgement that market
pressure can move policy, even
in this administration, while some people were
beginning to lose faith in that. And that's positive. positive now does the china situation get resolved i don't know i
mean you know tariffs might have gotten delayed today but tariffs on china went up and the canada
and mexico tariffs are still in place the auto tariffs are still in place so there is still
risk i think yeah i guess the way i look at it is um call it risk or uncertainty um
I look at it is, um, call it risk or uncertainty.
Um, is that I think uncertainty is peaked.
Therefore I would, I would say the market is bottomed, but are, are we going to see
a, you know, think about credit spreads or, you know, or the market price or the VIX.
Are we going to see a collapse back down to, you know, levels, uh, that we were at the
end of the year?
Uh, I highly doubt that.
So, you know, the way I'm thinking about it is the, of the year uh i highly doubt that so you know the way i'm
thinking about is the market's gonna you know take a day or two or to reprice risk for what we now
know just like it did uh in a very negative way after april 2nd uh or the announcement on april
2nd and go from there and you know we're still gonna i'm sure have a lot of volatility because
you know this too will be behind us and you know when you're still going to, I'm sure, have a lot of volatility because, you know, this too will be behind us.
And, you know, when you're investing, it's always what's next, what's next, what's next.
So I think it'll take, again, a day or two for the market to kind of fully digest.
But, you know, it'll be interesting to see Trump's tone.
I mean, in hindsight, you look back at that tweet in the morning where he was like, it's a good time to buy stocks.
And I saw something apparently he said something similar in 2018.
Maybe he knew that Powell was going to pivot at the end of the year.
So, you know, one of the things the guy I work with who's been dead right on Trump so far in terms of, you know, he's going to surprise the upside.
And he still thinks we're going to get very we're going going to still have high tariffs is that just listen to trump and so
if we were listening i guess close enough uh i don't know if he talked about the stock market
like that i'd have to go back and look you know beyond uh the last couple days
but can we even lean on the listen to trump thing because i mean going into this
he was saying there's going to be no delays no exemptions they're going to go this morning said
looks like a great time to buy oh yeah i think that is exactly he changed he said before
again something something changed all right so just i want to be general it's like if you had If you buy when he says he's not looking at the stock market and sell when he's saying he's not looking at the stock market and buy when he tells you today's a good day to buy, you're probably up so much money.
There you go.
There's your trading strategy for the next three and a half years.
Sorry for cutting you guys off though
but yeah by no means is you know again i think are things completely off to the races i heard
the gentleman speaking before me you know what i'm trying to think about is how
does the macro and earnings data mean a lot actually the next month and a
half two months you know we have to kind of like like filter through this it's got to get through
the you know think of like a pipeline you know this has been all kind of i think if anyone's ever
installed a water filter you have to run it until you get the carbon out and and so and so that's
you know kind of what we have in the pipeline right now. And I don't think earnings are going to be bad.
I think I mentioned this yesterday.
Like I think companies' expectations are super low.
And this morning we saw Walmart and Delta.
Those stocks were both up when the market was down.
and that, you know, Delta pull guidance, Walmart reaffirmed.
And Delta pull guidance, Walmart reaffirmed.
So I don't really see a lot of, you know, broad-based negative consequences to earnings.
Obviously, I'm sure there's always one-offs, but beyond there, I just don't think companies
are going to be bearish.
They're going to be uncertain.
If anything, another reason I think recession risks even lower beyond the obvious reason,
risks even lower beyond the obvious reason, at least imminent obvious reason, is that
now companies, you know, the biggest thing that changed, and you said it before, is that
now we know Trump's willing to be, you know, not send the economy, I guess, into a complete
tailspin.
And so if anything now, that only is going to further I think uh lead to
hesitation in layoffs which you know I would argue which I still would argue I did argue
yesterday um and and now that timeline's probably even got stretched out because
now we've had something that reinforces that idea
Sam you've had your hand up for so long.
Awesome guy.
I appreciate you.
Then we're going to come over to Josh for the question
and then definitely keep the conversation going.
No, I mean, by all means.
I mean, it's so great to hear.
It's so great to hear from you, Contro.
It's so great to hear from you, Contro.
I mean, pleasure to have you on here.
I mean, pleasure to have you on here.
Just generally speaking, as far as the market sentiment goes,
do you think that the positioning in terms of sentiment as well as,
well, not just sentiment, but also the actual positioning wise,
and we see futures and so on.
I know you guys look at a lot of stuff,
but just wondering if that if you think
that that has highly contributed to the massive rally we had today uh i mean i think you know
we've been hearing about degrossing now for a couple months uh you didn't see it in individual investors, I think up until like, or retail investors
in the AAII data until like really beginning of last week.
And, you know, looking, remember, was it Monday?
I can't even remember now.
Every day feels like a week.
Monday, we had that headline,
which was deemed fake news.
Yeah, that last, that this basically the equivalent move lasted as long
until that was this uh debunked so yeah i think it's it's positioning and i think
people were looking for something for some clarity and now you know this is this is this is as good
as clarity you know as we're gonna get aside from trump just saying we're not gonna do tariffs which
he's not gonna do so you know if you think about the time where the market rallied after first bottomed i
think it was after march 13th i think a big part of the reason the market rallied because trump
kind of went dark for like a week and a half uh and then he started then he raised the auto
tariffs and the market rolled back over and so again no news is good
news i guess is the way to think about it especially now that we have a positive
uh sentiment tailwind from the most recent piece of news um so we'll see
josh
you don't see the job um yeah it's Josh? You can also get your thoughts too.
Sure.
Yeah, I think I was listening carefully to what Kendra was saying,
and I think volatility has negative consequences
for investment.
So I know specifically for oil and gas,
you know, starting to hear about people
laying down rigs, laying off
employees, both services companies and upstream companies. Obviously, the price just rebounded a
little, but my sense is that people, you know, the only thing they hate more than the price
collapsing is the price falling and then being very volatile from a commodity perspective. And
my expectation is that there's probably a
similar calculus across a number of different industries oil and gas is particularly capital
intensive but if you're trying to plan out something on a multi-year basis and you have
policy change via social media posts on a day-to-day basis and sort of very big deviations from stated
to actual sort of policy and little follow-through you can end up really aggressively suppressing
investment and so um i think like you were already seeing the oil and gas red count fall but i think
you might see it fall even more uh relative to whatever price
you're at or forecasting and uh i'd imagine that there's going to be i don't think it'll just be
like yantra was saying there being this like couple of months where you're going to end up
with really weird data where you're going to have an air pocket and an investment i think you might end up actually when everyone does
catch their breath at a lower investment level across a number of different industries and then
the one other thing that's worth noting is that yesterday i think it was yesterday hard to it's
been a crazy week um the trump administration they declared an energy emergency. And as a first step towards that, they're mandating a coal mine go back into operation. And I don't really understand the specifics of it and how they pay the company that's doing it or the service providers, how they force them to do it.
wartime type stuff where the government has done that during World War II, the providers of those
things made a ton of money. Unclear sort of what the economic arrangement is. That's something I'm
sort of watching out for. Obviously, that would be beneficial to individual companies, but it may
actually also suppress activity because even the companies that are doing that, if you have 10
coal mines and the government forces your least economic one that was mothballed or that you were going to mothball into operation, then maybe you take the next less, like your ninth highest cost one, the next one on the list, and you turn that one off or you reduce shifts or so on.
And you might actually reduce even more activity, relatively speaking,
to offset the mandated work. So, there's a couple of different things that are sort of,
I think, negative from an economic perspective, not necessarily for, let's say, oil price,
activity over time.
but pretty negative, I think, for expected investment, which should translate to economic activity over time.
Stock talk.
Do we have you?
I appreciate you, Josh.
If you guys are following Josh, if you're into oil, you're missing out.
We have me, but I'm outside and it's pretty windy, so I don't know if you can really hear
me well.
Yeah, I can hear you.
I can hear you, but I won't come to you with the questions that I have.
Cantrell, can I come over to you?
I want to ask you about Jamie Dimon and other CEOs we have coming up here.
Jamie Dimon spoke two times this week already.
Maybe that was planned.
Maybe it's just a big coincidence.
Then we also have earnings coming up here.
I'm just really curious on what these CEOs are about to say
going into the starting season.
Maybe the worst case is still taken off, but there's still significant amounts of uncertainty. It looks like there's still 10% tariffs on. There could be some interpretation
on his post. But the base understanding that's going around is there are 10% tariffs on all
countries right now during this 90-day pause
um yeah i want to get your thoughts on heading into this earnings season and what you're you know listening for the ceos to say and jamie diamond feels like a big start to it
uh yeah well i think he i guess maybe is one of many who kind of helped um i don't know i guess
maybe he was part of uh notifying uh the the folks what was going on in the markets.
It is funny.
We held a client webinar this morning because everyone was very focused, especially over the UK, about the bond market.
So we held a webinar with clients with our rates desk.
webinar with clients with our uh our rates desk um
i mean you know again like it's still a a dicey backdrop economically speaking
like it's just all it's all perception and you know it's all behavior right now because
you know if we had gotten to the point where we are now after April 2nd, maybe the market would be exactly where it is today,
except we were surprised to the downside.
And now we're surprised or we got news to the upside.
And so I kind of just view this as kind of like a resetting of risk,
which again, mostly that's what this whole thing has been.
It's all been PE expansion.
You really haven't seen any drastic material changes in earnings certainly going out beyond the first quarter
um we haven't really seen any bad hard economic data that we probably will see because you know
that that stuff is lagging so you know i don't think you'll see here a whole different tone from
these folks besides that you know maybe the worst case
scenarios off the uh is less likely you know diamond was talking about recession today with
maria um yeah i'm not i'm not i don't specifically follow banks as closely uh so this i guess there's
nothing for me at least as much from a macro front that
i'm going to be looking for again it kind of like if you go back to where the economy was before all
of this again it was still in a kind of a bifurcated state where you were seeing rising
delinquencies across different parts of the credit situation small businesses you know last month's
nfib they were paying nine percent on short-term credit
which is still absurdly high they still have really high labor costs so you know we so we
still have we basically still have all of that plus now the the friction from what's already
happened which i agree with josh and now like how do you get rates down um you know maybe maybe they'll drift down because of
whatever caused them to go up um settles down but then you know perhaps you know china is going to
continue to to devalue and defend their currency so that could be a pressure on rates uh and if
stocks go up because the economic outlook you know just continues to kind of improve because
you know kind of circular because, you know, kind of circular
because stocks are going up,
that also is kind of bearish rates a bit.
And I don't think we're gonna see any imminent
weakness in employment.
To me, that's what you really need to get rates down again.
So I think the focus is beyond tariffs
is gonna kind of shift and be more sticky with
with the inflation issues because um we're gonna you know prices are rising and that's already a
concern and now you know oil uh well similar to my point about rates if people are becoming you know
taking off the the recession story and adding what josh just said you know perhaps oil will
move up too and i wouldn't be
surprised if you know people are starting to worry about inflation again not too far down the road
um you know more so than or more specifically uh compared to worrying about growth and inflation
where really growth was the biggest concern uh up until i think you know now so maybe that shifts i also i don't know if stock talk's
talking i see i'm unmuted but i'm curious because like when can we even start to look at that data
you know the one will say like obviously what's happening right now uh maybe maybe you'll start
to see it in this may next month Maybe it even takes a little bit longer.
I don't know.
But when do you actually like,
it's going to be a while before we,
and the next data print,
like even for CPI we have coming up with.
CPI inflation, one example.
We're going to get a printout tomorrow
that's not going to have any impact of this.
And then maybe the one will first start to see a shot
or maybe it does have an impact
of people getting worried heading into this.
Well, I mean, given where rates are right now and the recent move i i think that's where the that's where the sensitivities are going to be and you know
there's definitely risks to the upside in certain pockets and then you know we'll get the we'll get
start getting pmi data with prices in it, which I imagine are going to be, uh, generally worse and higher.
yeah,
I think rates could,
could,
could be a,
a driver of all to the going forward.
Yeah.
Higher rates,
not,
not,
you know,
not being a good thing.
but yeah,
it's going to,
it's,
it's going to,
it's just,
it's going to be a weird backdrop because again,
the tariff stuff's not going away and Trump's gonna keep talking i'm sure a lot and the market will
react to it you know and extrapolate it so that'll create volatility and the data is just going to be
um you know we're getting consumer confidence i think think in a couple of days, but like, to me, that's going to be irrelevant.
So that's going to be stale.
I don't, I don't think that that's going to have a big impact.
So yeah, it's going to be, I guess earnings will, you know,
earnings will probably be the focus on that.
I don't see that as being a big negative.
At least in earnings, earnings, you'll get some company commentary and that'll probably be the most uh that'll be the only fresh data basically
uh can't you can i ask real quick on on rates so rates are up and um i i keep hearing about uh
uh real estate so single family home transactions starting to slow and prices starting to come off.
Are you tracking that?
I imagine that's really closely linked to employment, right?
Because construction and that whole industry is such a big driver of employment in the U.S.
What do you think about the latest changes in that area?
Yeah, housing's been on this kind of just slow motion
deterioration that's going to continue.
You know, the only one of the small silver linings
up until a couple of days ago
was that at least interest rates were falling
while the market was falling.
And even for a few days,
you saw some home building stocks and rate sensitive stocks
go up in days where the market was down.
Obviously, that's all completely, at least the near term, changed again.
So to me, housing is kind of just the slow motion train wreck.
I don't think it's, again, I don't't until we see employment weaken which would exacerbate
the deterioration so again it's a little bit circular i'm not specifically in construction
but i'm sure i would imagine you'll start seeing again just just more and more broad-based weakness
you know we're you're already seeing it parts of the country home prices are coming down parts of
the country inventory levels are shooting up.
So you're seeing the housing sector age.
And, you know, employment's going to be part of that as well.
But on its own, is that going to be a major negative catalyst?
I don't think so.
But it just could contribute to this kind of um muddled economic backdrop but yeah again fast
forward three months and trump's gonna be talking about less trump's gonna be talking about tax cuts
and um so i imagine he'll try to continue to use policy to
help people look through anything that's negative yeah
look through anything that's negative yeah
dark dark do we have you yeah I'm back sorry I was walking me up I'm curious
what you're watching from like the macro environment all this data points you
know are you gonna factor that in and what you think analysts might end up
saying in general we just heard one I. I mean, I'll be honest.
I mean, you guys, you know, for those, again, I always say this,
but for those that have listened to the show for a long time,
and I know it's a lot of people in the audience,
you guys know how bullish I was last year.
And part of that was because, and the year before,
and part of that was because I felt like a lot of the fear-mongering
about the macro data was misplaced.
I felt like there wasn't enough red flags on the aggregate to make me concerned about the economy.
And frankly, going into this year, I felt the same way about the economy.
And if you were to ask me today outside of tariffs about the economy itself, I would say the economy's fine. It's resilient. It's strong.
It's been resilient through thick and thin. I mean, pretty much everyone on Wall Street thought
2023 was going to be ending a recession. And when it didn't, 2024, beginning of the year,
a lot of guys had their base case that there was a high probability of recession. We didn't get
one in either year. Markets ripped. NAS know, NASDAQ ripped 70% higher.
So yeah, in a base case scenario, you know, had we rewinded the clock a month prior to today,
and none of the tariffs had gone in place, my view on the economy would be the same.
Now, that being said, I don't think the tariffs are going away completely.
You know, today was great, but we got a 90-day pause.
Who knows what happens 90 days from now if they are putting back in place,
how many deals are brokered between now and then,
what happens with the China tariffs. So there's still a good amount of unknowns overhead.
But I think the way that Cantrell phrased this, I think,
is the way I would agree to phrase it,
which is that risk has to be repriced now.
Going into today, there was a cohort of the market and many, many people on our panel yesterday
during the conversation that thought, hey, Trump may be willing to play hand grenade with the
global economy. And if he's willing to do that, then it's really hard to price
the risk of that, right? It's really difficult to price the risk of the most powerful person in the
world being willing to gamble with the global economy. And you saw that move, I think, in the
bond markets last night, where most of this sell-off, we had not seen that type of overnight
move in bonds. And then when we did, I imagine there was, I don't want to say an emergency meeting at the White House, but I imagine there was a meeting at the White House this morning.
Trump said there was.
So, you know, if you believe him at his face value, then there was.
And you probably had, I think it was Basant, say, hey, look, we tried to bring rates down with this whole thing and it has not worked
you know the 10 year was trading four five last night and so the question becomes in that scenario
what goal have we accomplished with all of this right like what what was the purpose of
this whole charade over the last couple of weeks outside of just showing leverage.
And if that was the point, then it's like, come on, you think these countries didn't
know that the United States has the purchasing power leverage?
Of course they knew it.
I mean, if this was a way of reminding them, then OK, I guess.
But yeah, there was clearly a calculus made at the White House this morning where they said, look, we were driving rates higher, equities lower and nothing has yet been accomplished.
That's not a good outcome. So policy changed technically in terms of the delay.
And we'll see how much different that tariff schedule looks when we do get to that date when we do get to uh you know 90
days from now do you think that's like where do you think like we end up here like obviously
everyone knew before that that wasn't where it was going to be so my question is kind of we're
at we're at 10 right now Do you think tariffs are actually here
for the next three, four years?
Or do you think we even kind of get rolled back
on this whole concept
and it was really all just China?
That was the way to really go about this.
I mean, he's been talking a lot about tariffs for years.
Yeah, based on his comments today,
it seems like he's mostly concerned about China.
You know, and I don't know, I don't know what the implication
of that is. Like, I don't know if, you know,
Jaguar sort of brought this up when he came into our
spaces on Sunday, and he could be correct,
which is that this whole thing was
a charade to recruit the EU
and the rest of
our allies to
isolate China, right?
And if that's the case, then okay, but you're going to have to start
seeing evidence of that in the coming weeks. Evidence meaning you're going to have to start
seeing these countries actually make their own tariffs against China. And if they start to do
that, then yeah, I'll start to give a nod to that being the strategy. But I haven't seen that yet.
Do we really think that some of these countries that are highly dependent on China for trade are just going to say, yeah, we'll put tariffs on them with you just as a show of good faith?
I don't think so. You know, I think there's going to have to be some tangible benefits for cooperation.
And maybe that tangible benefit is just retaining the trade relationship they already have with the United States.
You know, that can be used as leverage.
But this is a very complicated and fluid situation is the bottom line.
And it's very, very unpredictable.
And I think anyone who thinks they can see to the end of the tunnel is probably misleading themselves.
We don't know what's going to happen.
We don't know how market pressures are going to change the attitude in the White House.
We don't know what sort of headlines we'll get, what sort of offhand remarks we'll get.
Because keep in mind, all it takes is an offhand remark during a White Oval Office briefing to change the market's perception on risk.
So I think today was there was certainly some buying today. You can't get a move like that without just outright buying.
So there were certainly buyers stepping back into the market today. There was certainly a ton certainly some buying today. You can't get a move like that without just outright buying.
So there were certainly buyers stepping back into the market today.
There was certainly a ton of short covering today.
You saw that on the flow.
So both of those mechanics were at play today. And to me, when you have both of those at play in a massive historic market rally like this, keep in mind, this is the second largest update for the Nasdaq in history.
the second largest update for the NASDAQ in history.
When you have market volatility like that, you tend to have a repricing of risk.
And so that's what happened today, right?
You had people who were pricing a much higher risk of economic, global economic recession
that have now come down from that, right?
Even Goldman pulled their recession forecast post-announcement, like I mentioned earlier.
Betting markets, the odds plummeted.
So the case has, the base case has gotten better.
There's no question about that.
And it's gotten better simply from one small change,
which was a delay, which again,
a lot of people were not expecting
yet another delay, right?
It felt like the political optics
wouldn't allow for it, but we got one anyway. So, you know, it's not the policy that's effective here, in my view,
it's the lack of policy that is effective. You know, there's a lot of people out there, I think,
like, viewing this as a win for the administration and the policy. I don't view it that way. I view
it as a win for markets because risk has been risk has come down but i mean i frankly think this is silly like
we launched tariffs in january delayed till february launched them again in february said
they were coming april 2nd then april 2nd we said no exemptions they're going into effect in a week
and on the day they go into effect we delay them again by 90 days i mean it's just like a
it's a it's a roller coaster of policy um and you know i i don't think it's a particularly good use
of leverage if china comes to the table then i'll be wrong on that and i hope they do um but who
knows how soon that will happen if you want this market rally to be more than just a bounce,
if you want this to continue and turn into a multi-day, multi-week rally back to all-time highs,
you're going to need to see China come to the table, in my opinion.
Either that or for tariffs to be mutually lowered significantly between the United States and China.
between the United States and China.
One of the two has to happen.
One of the two has to happen.
That was wild, Sok Talk.
There was literally, like, I think I saw a post,
73 minutes between that Goldman note
getting rescinded right back.
That was wild.
Yeah, like, banks were dropping notes like crazy in the 20, 30 minutes following that
announcement.
They were like, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Like, because you got to keep in mind, everything we talked about in the last week on these
spaces and everything Wall Street's talked about in the last two weeks has been based
on what was the status quo of policy, right? All of the fears, like even
when Dan Ives was on this space, right, talking about how scared he was, he was talking about
assuming the existing policy went in place. And even yesterday when I was talking about it and
Cantro and Kevin were all talking about it, we were talking about it. Hey, what happens if this
policy goes in place? Well, what happened today? It didn't go in place it got delayed so it's like this situation is so fluid that literally all
the conversations we had yesterday are moot until we know what's going to happen right um and and
that's the hardest part about this market is like what you think might be the reality of the economic
stage situation can change in literally a single post, single tweet.
The entire economic reality can change. The risk pricing can change. The forward outlook can change.
Remember we were talking about the dangers for earnings season? Well, now that this is delayed
by 90 days, earnings guidance might not be as bad as some people were expecting. You might have some
companies now that are like, oh, hey, tariffs are delayed. We expected these to go into effect
within this quarter. Now that they're delayed, we feel confident reiterating our guidance. You may
have more companies willing to say that now. Whereas had they gone into effect as announced,
I think you would have had very few companies willing me, very few companies willing to say that.
So that's one thing that's also changed.
So yeah,
risk is a very volatile thing and it can be priced.
Excuse me.
I'm sneezing.
I hope I'm getting close.
It can be priced very violently in moments like this.
You know,
we're cutting the spaces off early tonight
No midnight sessions
Stock talk needs some sleep
Bless you by the way
Good guy up
Thank you
Stock talk held in here with me the entire night too
I went to bed
What about him?
I think empty.
There was a break for sure.
Like a Kit Kat?
It is amazing how
late night
emergency Twitter space sessions
or whatever are almost always a good
indicator that whatever the thing is
is near the peak of concern and about to sort of roll over.
It was wild, Josh, to that point.
We had over 2,000 people in the space for, I mean,
for seven, eight hours straight, like at least.
And that was like after the first, it was over 11 hours,
but there was still over 2000
people at 2 a.m. Eastern time still listening in. And the conversation really hadn't gone anywhere
at that point. But it was one of those deals where like the point you're making is correct.
Like when people get to that level of panic and Trump even mentioned today, he made the note that
he said markets were getting a
little queasy or things were looking a little queasy was the term that he used. And that was,
you know, everyone was kind of back fully against the wall, I think. And yeah, that's where you saw
the tension where people were absolutely freaking out in all these different spaces, what's going on.
And a lot of those are the average person too,
not the stock market enthusiast,
but the average person checking in,
what in the world's going on with my 401k?
What's coming?
And yeah, you wonder how often is that going to be like,
not a bottom, but like a pivot type of signal
of what's coming next.
You know what's crazy is that,
does Trump even need Powell when it comes
to the stock market in terms of rate cuts? Because I think he's proved that, I mean,
obviously he needs Powell, but I think it's proved that he basically can control markets
at this point. He doesn't need to do anything. He could just tweet. And that's been the case
for a while. But I think what we've seen this term versus the last term is that
how much of an extremity anything he says can have in the stock market. I mean, you ask me,
that's kind of scary. I was a little bit worried at first, but now I'm just like,
oh. And I think this alludes to what Stock Talk was saying, and as well as Contra, was that the market has to adjust for that.
It really makes sense.
Are we going to make all-time highs with this thought in the back of our head that one tweak can just reverse everything?
Because two years since 2023, that wasn't really the case.
And we kind of knew this was going to come, but I just did not think it was going to be at this magnitude well to that point i think i think it's helpful in terms of thinking
about the market and market valuations and this isn't this isn't an area that i you know it's
something i've studied but not like in the area that I'm the expert in or whatever. But I do think, I mean, you're reading a lot from different people over the last week or so about how the U.S. might lose some of its premium multiple for its stock market.
And I think there's a decent argument that we lose.
you might lose a little bit of that sort of excess investment in oil and gas that people do because
they feel so safe investing in the u.s from a you know geopolitical risk and tax risk and so on
perspective um and i think i think you might i think there's a risk even if trump ends up being
more supportive of the stock market and follows through on some of his economic commitments to
deregulate and lower taxes and so on i think think there's still, um, there's still a real risk that you end up with just a lower
market valuation because there's there, if you have to worry about some, uh, sort of, uh, ad
hoc change, you could end up with, uh, um, you know, you just, if you were going to pay 20 times,
maybe you pay 15 times. If you have to worry about checking Twitter or checking Truth Social or whatever for some sort of last minute change.
Or maybe it's 10 times or it's 20 times.
But like the companies themselves are risking their capital spend and they're hiring.
And so they incrementally invest a little less and hire a little less and end up with just sort of that.
I mean, the economic system that this is most similar to that I could tell is Peronism, which was a catastrophe for Argentina and led to very low valuations there.
And it wasn't exactly socialism and wasn't exactly capitalism.
exactly socialism and wasn't exactly capitalism. It was, you know, sort of this command and control
government telling you what to do, but there being sort of these private businesses that would
benefit, you know, signaling ahead of a, you know, change in regulatory environment or tariffs
to their friends or even publicly, but sort of helping people who they're friends with,
like understand what it means and giving preferential trade deals and tariff waivers and various other things. So anyway, I think there is a risk that you end up
with sort of a de-rating in valuations. And so I think it's worth sort of watching out for,
I don't know for sure. And I know the stock market's up a lot and everyone's sort of euphoric,
but I think it makes sense to keep that in mind and to sort of be aware of that, as well as just you look back at the history of when there have been stock market moves like this before.
And generally, like the one everyone's posting about is in this is the biggest percent move since October of 2008.
It's like, well, what happened from October 2008 till March of 2009?
Right. Market was down another 20 or 30 or something percent.
So I think it's helpful to sort of be aware, excited about sort of the move today, happy
that Trump isn't going to just fully burn it to the ground, at least from what he's
saying today, but also aware of sort of what some of the implications are of this change.
some of the implications are of this change.
Josh, do you think anything, I mean, Trump being the wild card here, I mean, it's almost
like, and this is hindsight, of course, kind of looking back, and maybe there's two pieces
of this, but when you look at this and you look back at it, you go, okay, was this all
just one big, big bluff in a way to get to get to the point that we're at? Is it a he?
Everyone thought he was crazy enough to maybe do this. And then now it's like, okay, well, you know,
he was never going to do it. Are we going to see those narratives in hindsight coming out? Like,
well, of course, he was not going to go through with it. It was he was it was a business tactic.
Are we going to hear that narrative push now for the next few weeks?
Are we going to hear that narrative push now for the next few weeks?
I mean, we're hearing it right this second, right?
You can see some of the posts from the White House Twitter account and various other sort of affiliates.
And I don't know how long you'll see it.
And again, none of what I was saying was meant as political per se. Obviously, it's talking about the president and the policy regime,
but I think it's just trying to interpret what the risk is of that regime
and how it might affect investment in the economy, private sector,
and then what it might do to affect multiples.
But yeah, I think that's, you know, that's certainly a message
that's being pushed. I just don't know that it's reasonable. I don't think that's a, to me,
it's not a reasonable interpretation of what just happened. And it seems unlikely to me that this
was the plan. And then, and again, just purely just looking at it coldly from like facts, like there aren't any trade deals that happened, right?
Like if the goal was to have a trade deal, then there could have been trade deals announced.
And then if they weren't happy with the direction of that negotiation with any individual country, there could have been tariffs publicly threatened against individual countries to sort of get a better deal.
But there's actually no deals as far as we can tell.
So I don't think, I think there's not really victory.
The Trump administration is declaring victory, but there's no victory from their perspective.
And from the market's perspective, I think all we learned is that when the bond market
started to get out of control, it got Trump's attention and got Besson's attention.
It got Trump's attention and got Besson's attention. And they pivoted at least temporarily
on the tariff policy to potentially affect the trajectory of what it looks like they're concerned
as really the bond market. And now they're declaring victory in the stock market. Again,
like this isn't at all about their politics. It's just what actually happened versus what's
being claimed. And that's why, again, I think when you look at it from a capital allocation perspective from boards of directors or what it might look like if you're a private capital allocator looking at funding particular projects without sort of having a corporate commitment or whatever to any particular project, I think it's just this extra risk factor of this sort of thing replicating
in one form or another that is going to be attributed. And I think there's going to be a
lot of debate, I think, over, hey, is that a 1% risk factor or a 50% risk factor? Does this mean
you need a 30% return or a 40% return where maybe you needed a 20 or 25? I'm not sure exactly what
it'll look like.
I just, it's an extra thing
that I think people will now be considering
more than they were a week ago.
Yeah, I think it'll be interesting
that the revisionist history
that will happen behind this,
but I like your angle there.
And I do want to monitor that and watch.
Do we start to see maybe people
looking at their risk appetite
and maybe they lower it down a little bit?
Maybe we do see some effects on that.
I like that angle a lot, Josh.
Sam, saw your hand go up.
No, I mean, I do agree.
I mean, the bond market takes a lot more liquidity to move at such a massive size,
like 60 basis points in just a couple of days.
Pretty crazy.
But yeah, that signal,
it's played a role in causing major market turns or pivots,
not necessarily from a fundamental basis,
but mostly on a technical basis.
I mean, we saw it happen.
It wasn't a bond market,
but we saw it happen in terms of FX currency on August 5th.
We saw it in October 2023 when the 10-year went to nearly 5%.
We saw it last night, of course.
And I actually haven't looked at the yields from December 2018, but I'd imagine the same thing happened there.
We had such a massive spread between the 2 and the 10-year.
massive spread between the two and the 10 year. I can't really say that. I don't know exactly what
that means, but like that, that magnitude of move in such a short period of time, like I agree,
like some either someone blew up. I think someone yesterday was talking about this,
this bank that's in Japan that's, that has a lot of us treasury assets that possibly may have
offloaded it in order to create liquidity for their own banker.
Maybe even China and Japan, since they're both holders, since they both have a lot of U.S. treasuries,
one of the largest holders in the entire world, especially China, the yuan was collapsing the other day.
So when that happens, I'm not saying this is what they did, but considering they hold a lot of U.S. treasuries, maybe they had to liquidate some of those treasuries in order to buy their own currency and prop it up before it collapses.
And just like those type of moves, maybe it could signify a turn in the market or at least a major turn in the market.
Yeah, I'm with you, Sam.
And to Josh's point, kind of to your point as well, but to Josh's point as well, no deal was really even reached yet.
I mean, that's the thing that's still lingering over my,
I guess, my thought process right now.
It's like, yeah, good news, I guess,
is kind of the way I'm looking at it.
I mean, it's definitely not bad news, right?
It's, okay, something reasonable happened today,
but we still haven't reached any deals with anyone.
And that, I think, is still kind of that rain
cloud that's going to keep hanging over our heads. I mean, yeah, we got a great move today,
but until that clears up, and obviously going into these earnings season, I heard some of the
conversation a little bit earlier, guidance, what's going to happen with guidance? Nobody knows.
Well, here we are. We know there's a 90-day pause. Okay, is that long enough for you to go, okay, well, I can still guide for this quarter? And then what? You know, like, okay, I'll go ahead and maintain. SockTalk was kind of talking to this a while ago. Okay, 90-day pause. But what happens if a deal is reached in two weeks and we find out, okay, well, they reached a deal at 20% or whatever the arbitrary number is at that point.
Don't call.
But until a deal is actually made, I feel like that rain cloud is just going to keep
hanging over and you're still going to have, partly to Josh's point, you're still going
to have people that are a little risk adverse saying, I just don't know right now.
Maybe my tolerance isn't
there. And then without a deal, what does this really mean at the end of the day other than,
okay, well, the worst case scenario is not happening, but we still don't even know what
the best case or the medium case or any other case is.
Yeah. And again, I think it's important. I wasn't just talking about risk taking in the
stock market. I was talking about risk taking from a investor in project and investor in real
economy and, you know, board of director capital allocation and investment in their own projects.
And I think it's important to keep in mind that,
you know, the way that economic activity is measured, there is a lot of reinvestment that's
necessary to sustain current economic activity levels. And so to the extent that there's a
marginal reduction in activity, right, it doesn't have to be huge huge you could easily end up in a situation where marginal reduction in
investment leads to marginal reduction in employment and marginal reduction in consumption
and you can end up with sort of this cascade of relatively small changes that end up having a meaningful effect on overall economic activity and end up sort of really changing what broad economic measures look like,
as well as, you know, there are some companies and some sectors that are more exposed to the economy.
And then, again, I focus on oil and gas and energy.
again i focus on oil and gas and energy and energy is really interesting because you have investment
um that's necessary to sustain production and you have a lot of sensitivity to demand
and you could be in a position us production from an oil perspective was already rolling over
and gas investment was insufficient relative to expected growth you could have demand growth you
could have demand grow less or even shrink,
but you could actually have supply disappoint even more
and end up with this like terrible stagflation scenario.
Again, I'm not saying this is very likely,
but it's a possibility.
And it's a thing that I've been looking at recently
to try to understand, hey, how likely is this?
You could have an unpleasant stagflation type scenario where
you have insufficient investment driving high prices for energy and lower employment and lower
investment. And so that's sort of the risk that's taken with sort of ad hoc policy or policy that
changes a lot is, again, it suppresses potential investment. And for sectors like energy, you can end up with higher prices and less investment and less employment and sort of a pretty unpleasant
circular sort of negative or spiral negative effect.
Again, sorry, sounds horrible and so pessimistic, but it's a real, real i think case that's increasing in probability
based on recent events
dr do we have you back up here
i might if i actually uh want to hit him like accepting accepting to come back up and remove him from the spaces which happens every once in a while
What's up Kim? It's been a while since we've had you on the space
I feel like
I know I'm down in beautiful Southern California
what a sunny day
and somehow I stopped
following Wolf and blocked him
and stopped following
stock on spaces. So following everybody
again, I have no idea how this happens, but what a crazy couple of weeks. You know, I've been
traveling. I know you guys, I've seen you guys on spaces and was kind of waiting for a moment where
I knew that I would have a little bit of time to actually join you because I'm visiting my kids.
bit of time to actually join you because I'm visiting my kids. Now I'm walking on the Santa
Monica beach, but yeah, this has been, I have to say, I don't usually get panic, so to speak.
It wasn't panic selling at all. And I was so proud of myself because I kept
buying small baby buys. I called them in my tweet today. I was buying small because I'm never going
to be able to time a bottom, you know, five, 10 shares of Meta, five, 10 my tweet today. I was buying small because I'm never going to be able to time a bottom.
You know, five, 10 shares of Meta, five, 10 shares of Microsoft.
I just kept adding every down day.
But, you know, with that whole bond thing that was going on the last couple of days,
I would say I was definitely like more than the stock market, you're hurting the financial markets globally.
I mean, this is our banking system.
This is our, you know, how money flows in and out.
And so I will say like, I kind of had a hard time sleeping last night, but not as much because I was worried about my portfolio, but I was just worried about like the system cracking, you know?
And the last thing I'll say, as most people know, my husband was a floor trader. And so he's seen
markets, you know, go down 75%. And so yeah, I don't know if this will really stick. I think we
had a big move up a couple of days ago and, you know, these wild swings.
But hopefully if this administration can just zip it for a few days and let the market just settle.
I think it just needs to settle because we don't want bonds, yields, stocks trading like meme stocks.
It's not healthy.
So that's my two cents. But I was very happy today. I was long a couple M&Q. Wow. Crazy. Just two little micros.
And yeah, was not expecting that. Was that like $2 a point?
Yeah, it was $8,000. Well, by the time I got out, that's not,
I got out at $19,100. I didn't quite bottom ticket, so, but it ended up being, I think I
was like $7,000, and I got out at $19,100. Once he tweeted that the tariffs, or he put on TrueSocial that the tariffs were 90-day pause, I stayed long it.
But yeah, that was literally crazy.
So that's my cash to pay my taxes.
I got a question for you because we were on that investment competition in Q3 last
year. And I remember you were very long silver. Did you hold on to that long? I did in that
portfolio, but I had silver futures that I swing and that one I had stops on. I didn't have a stop in my long term.
But interestingly, I haven't touched that competition portfolio except to add a few things like hood when it went down.
And I think I added you and Microsoft.
But that's only down 5%.
So I was, that's not fair to say.
I was up about, I think it was up about 25% of the peak.
So it's really down 30% from the top, but I'm down 5% kind of from where we all started.
So yeah, I didn't trade out a silver in that one.
And honestly, I just wasn't paying a lot of attention to it because it's a small account.
But so I just stayed in everything. But in my futures,
I got stopped out. I made good money in the silver futures.
Yeah, that stuff's very volatile. Yeah, the gold has just been on a non-stop tear,
like just not stopping. What's actually pretty interesting is that gold actually did get sold
off a little bit today in light of the rally, but it picked right back up. Actually, let me verify that.
When I saw it, it dropped and then it just picked right back up. Yep. It went right back to where
it was. So I found that pretty interesting today. I mean, usually signals risk off deflation
environment and so on. But I mean, I guess that it'll be very tough to move all that money out of gold.
Usually once the money gets in there, it usually stays there.
Yeah, I, well, I, silver, I kind of wish I'd had a good cancel order on it.
And I trade it small.
I only use one contract because it's not like it's going to wipe me out.
Well, one big contract might if it went, if it like it took a 10 point down move.
But, you know, but it still is a big, you know, it still makes huge moves.
But it bounced right off kind of the 2750 area where it broke out of.
So I was a little bit bummed I didn't have a, you know, good to cancel on there.
But like I said, I'm traveling, so it's hard to trade.
But the best I can say is just I had some GT season for stocks that I wanted to add to our
own like Dell. Dell's down 45%. I bought just 25 shares of that this morning, kind of like a baby
starter position. And I like putting the GTCs in because then I don't have to think
about it. You know, when the market's whipsawing like this, it's too hard. I mean, this is not,
this is not a retail trader's market. I know some of us up here can trade it,
but even I was like, except for adding those two MNQs, you know, I was kind of stepping to the side and just buying stocks
as, you know, as it's been going down, but small.
I wish I'd been up with you guys till midnight last night. That would have been fun
as I was laying awake. was that it was definitely fun
uh that's one way to describe it but kim you left us you went on vacation you blocked us i don't
know i don't know how i feel about this did i block you too no no no then you blocked the
stocks on spaces you blocked the account like were you that upset i block out the noise i know wolf texted me and
he's like hey kim what's up and i'm like hi oh the market's taking a big leg down you know i didn't
know why he was texting me and the wolf's like i think you accidentally blocked me you know twitter
does that it's very strange because that's's happened with me and my man's trades before and mayhem and markets.
I've blocked everybody. I don't understand it.
But you didn't block Evan. That's actually surprising. I thought you would have been number one.
Yeah, and I just saw I wasn't following stocks on spaces.
And I'm like, this is just weird.
So anyway, if I accidentally block you, please let me know.
It's not intentional.
I don't know, maybe I'm doing it in my sleep as revenge or something.
Some sleep blocking would be pretty crazy.
Right?
I'm like, Wolf, you know i wouldn't purposely do that to you
everyone knows evan is my favorite though boom there we go the truth comes out let's end the spaces end of the high note end of the peak recording
I'm excited for tomorrow I'm excited for this market do we
do we Kim are you back on from vacation was you going on vacation like the uh
like the trigger for us she's not sure was that actually the short right that's where that's where it exactly where it went down is the day i know it's like two days after i left i'm back saturday i
actually had a sick family member down here part of the time so i stayed an extra week
my son-in-law but things are better um but i stayed an extra week to kind of
be their support people. So, well, three of my kids live in the, well, I have four kids, but three of them live right
here in this West Hollywood, Santa Monica area.
So it's been really nice.
And I'm walking right by the Santa Monica Pier right right now maybe i shouldn't say that on a big
spaces this is a joke we're somewhere completely else maybe we're in the metaverse yeah i'm like
down in san diego awesome we're looking back at it so this sunday i wonder if this is going to end up having been the low
or we have lowers uh i think we're kind of coming up towards the end of the spaces uh we'll see i
say that sometimes you know we got like two three random people joining in and then jay joins in in
two hours and there's four hours gone and then you never know where you're at coming out and stuff um but stock talk what are you thinking for tomorrow
you have any uh inclinations you do you trust this rally um i'm at the gym right now so
i'm gonna be out of breath but uh what are you doing staring i was just doing a lot of raises
but i'm about to do shrugs. What's your thoughts on leg day?
We talked about this before.
Em got mad at me because I said I skipped leg day sometimes.
Oh, my God.
No, I do try to work in leg day at least once a week.
What was your question?
Oh, do I think this rally's a fake out?
Look, this is the tricky thing with rallies like this after a big sell-off is there's a cohort of people that want to call it a dead cat bounce.
And then there's a cohort of people that want to call it a real recovery.
And the truth is, is even on high volume, if you lean on volume and say, okay, I'm going to use volume to dictate whether it's a dead cat bounce or not.
It's a really tricky thing to do because a lot of times dead cat bounces just start with high volume rallies anyway. And so you're going to have to keep that in mind. You have to keep that
into your factor and just say, look, maybe this is the beginning of a bottom, but I have to take
the data incrementally from here and change my opinion as needed. You know, this isn't...
Volatile markets are not the type of markets where you want to stand by your beliefs
or, like, hold some kind of ground.
That's not what you want to do.
What you need to do in volatile markets is you have to be cognizant of the data.
You have to react to the data, adapt your opinion with the data as it changes.
And today we've got a big data change.
Is it take us completely out of the weeds?
No, but it's a big data change from the perspective of there isn't this apocalyptic scenario now at the end of the tariffs, whereas there was one just a week ago had they got into place as announced. So the global economic recession scenario has become much less likely as
a result of one headline, like a single headline. And so, I mean, that's a tricky market to react
to. It's part of the reason why NASDAQ is up 12% today, right? Like, that's a huge, huge historic
move, like literally historic, the second biggest day ever. So you don't get moves like that without
a major repricing and risk.
A major repricing and risk happened today.
That's a good sign.
I think that's the most we can say about today.
I think once you start saying today was definitely the bottom or time to go all in,
that's the type of language that makes you concerned in environments like this.
Because, look, I still have plenty of cash.
I'm happy to chase if I need to chase.
If this turns into a bigger rally, I'm happy to buy stocks higher if I need to. I feel more confident deploying large amounts of capital when we're back in an uptrend. That's just the way I operate. And I said this before when we were talking about this, I'll say it again. I'm not in the business of catching bottoms. I don't mind if I missed the bottom. What I do care about is deploying capital aimlessly and then getting buried, you know, weeks or months later.
And that's not what I want to do.
So I have a basket of stocks.
Like, the good thing is I didn't get shaken out of my long-term positions during the sell-off.
I know a lot of people did.
Amazon, Robinhood, Tesla, stocks that I've owned for years, I still own them.
And so, you know, on a move like today where Robinhood was up 20%, Amazon was up 12%, and Tesla was up 22%. Yeah, it's a great day for
my portfolio, even with my hedges. But what I will say is that, am I jumping into these names
and getting rid of all my cash on day one of the rally? No, I'm retaining flexibility and operating
under the understanding that, look, we could get more headline volatility here.
And so my cash position is still the largest it's been in two years.
I have no problem with that.
I'm fully comfortable with that.
And I'll deploy it where I think necessary.
But once we start getting into a better market environment, if this balance does last, then the types of opportunities I'm used to trading will present themselves. The types of catalyst opportunities I'm used to trading
will come back on the table. So I'm not worried at all. For me, I protected my portfolio really,
really well during the drawdown. And now I'm in a position of flexibility going forward to where
if this does end up being the bottom and charts start getting constructive again into the middle
of the year, great. I'll start throwing more darts. But until then, I'm chilling. There's no need to
get tugged back and forth on the leash of the market like this. Everyone, when they see one
green candle, they're like, oh, I got to go all long. And they see the selling start again,
like, I got to go all short. I don't think you need to operate that way. I think you just be
patient. Let the story develop. Let some of the additional risks come off the table. And I think that's a good way to operate.
And what happened today, make no mistake, is a repricing of the risk. Now, is it a complete
repricing of the risk? Of course not. There's still the China issue overhead. There's still
the issue that in 90 days, these tariffs will supposedly come back. And so that's something markets still have to confront. I have a question for you, stock market. So on the tariffs, did he pause
just the retaliatory tariffs around the world? Or did that's where I was a little confused? Or did
he pause all of the tariffs? And then China, he's still, and I know that's where it's more universally accepted, is putting the tariffs on China. But it sounds like he raised those.
companies that buy from China, like Amazon and, you know, Apple are still going to have a difficult
time with forward guidance when these kind of tariffs are on China. What do you think? Because
I didn't fully understand what his pause was. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think the China
issue is still an issue. And I think most tech companies are exposed to that. I think,
you know, the tricky part about that is, I don't know how quickly
that'll be resolved. I don't know if China's going to come to the table, whether it's today or,
you know, a few weeks from now, but China needs to come to the table or we need to come to the
table, one of the two. And that does have to be lowered because those tariffs are not tenable
for the global economy. You can't have 125% tariffs on China. So we have to figure that
scenario out. But yeah, today's tariffs wasn't a pause on everything. Autos, steel and aluminum tariffs are still in
place. According to the White House, they're not subject to the pause. The tariffs on Canada and
Mexico related to fentanyl are still in place. They're not subject to the pause. And the 10%
baseline rate is still in place. That's not subject to the pause. The pauses are just
relevant to the ones,
the additional tariffs that were announced.
So that's kind of the summary of the announcement
that was made today.
But I would like to see more progress on the China front.
That would make me more confident.
And that would put me in a scenario
where I'd feel really, really confident
deploying a lot of cash long in the market
would be upon a resolution of the china situation do you think it's going to be reflected in the guides for those
tech companies also logical sorry my bad is owned out man um yeah i just wanted to add a little bit like
it's still guilty until proven innocent but obviously today was really nice action mostly
because it was driven by a piece of news that could potentially change the reality that we live in right now.
And so for that reason alone, that's why I'm a bit more constructive rather than an oversold
rally.
Because in reality, I mean, a lot of this was a man-made drawdown and, you know, it could
also become a man-made recovery.
recovery and we'll just have to obviously keep monitoring the situation on the daily chart
And we'll just have to obviously keep monitoring the situation.
obviously big volume close at the high of the day close above the 9 ema close just below the 21 ema
i mean it's not much but it's definitely something the candle is definitely a bullish engulfing
um so we'll have to see um there's still some we're we close right at resistance i would say
it's like a pretty big level um but i mean we just did a lot of work in a single day like we
went from over the lows like 493 to 548 i mean that's insane it's like 55 points it's just incredible um so even if it's like you know now we have to see
you know is there more digestion to happen i guess what i'm trying to say is like there's there's
it we just covered a lot of ground in a single day which is nice to see
um we undid a lot of downside quickly and, you know,
you want to believe that there's more to it,
but I think you just kind of let the price action tell you at this point,
let the headlines develop and take it day by day.
Um, for me,
I definitely added a lot,
on the long side,
as that news came in,
but you know,
by the end of the day,
I already trimmed like 10% of my long exposure.
And so I, you know, I re in 2025, I really have my trader hat on.
Um, and I will continue to trim whether we go up or down at this point, because if we go down,
then there's a possibility that we go to new lows.
And, um, just depending on, again, the price action, if I feel it's concerning, or if we go up,
I will still, still um trim because yeah
your profit taking leash is shorter right very much so like i agree with that completely like
i bought trade desk today even after it started gapping up and i closed it for plus eight percent
profits on the day and i mean it was a sizable position so um you know and i i think i want to
see if we can get some follow through.
Um, but either way, yeah, tight leash is what I would say.
I'm not, I think it's just guilty until proven innocent still, but obviously a very, very nice day.
And it was news driven.
That's the part that I'm kind of still hanging my hat on for now but i mean would it be weird to
get a little bit of digestion like if tomorrow we pull back a little i mean is that the end of
the world no because we just did so much work to the upside i mean you just kind of have to watch
well where are we closing if we like do a little pullback and you know we come i'm saying little
pullback but i mean the 90 ma right now is at 534 that's what i see on my chart um you know we come i'm saying little pullback but i mean the 90 ma right now is at 534 that's
what i see on my chart um you know that's a three percent down day but we're in a crazy volatile
market if we saw three percent down day tomorrow but we you know close on somewhat lower volume
right at the 90 ma you know i'm just saying you have to like take it day by day with the price
action right now because we're clearly in a weird spot um and you know i'm just saying you have to like take it day by day with the price action right now because We're clearly in a weird spot. Um, and you know, I'm very quick to add exposure cut exposure
That kind of thing that you really have to if you're planning on trading this you have to be
Trading it very well and I I think you know stock tax approach is a lot less stressful
And this is a very stressful market. So take it day by day
It was a good day let's hope that we get continued good news and that's really what you should be on the lookout for like I think
what was interesting was this morning we didn't really break to new lows even though we basically
got the worst possible news with the China retaliation and I thought that was pretty
telling for me was that like okay at those levels in this exact moment, we don't, I mean, it was like, there was no more downside,
at least in the immediate term. And, you know, it's obviously tricky because, you know, is it
the bottom? I don't know, but that was a good sign of a bottom. And then that's why, you know,
I closed my shorts early on because I'm like, okay, well, what's the point of holding these?
And I'm glad I did.
It would have been very painful today because I didn't have the proper hedges on the long side for those shorts.
So, yeah, very nimble, I guess, is the key takeaway in the TLDR.
Be very nimble.
And I know that mirror may not be helpful, but, dude, I don't think anyone has the answer at this point.
And it is a very tough market.
Yeah, that's all.
Yeah, one thing I'll say is you're going to see a lot of people in this market that are like day traders
who are cash at the end of every day, who are managing this market very well.
And you might look to them and be like oh my god these guys seem to catch
every move one thing I can promise you is they're not catching every move the other thing I can tell
you is most people don't operate that way I would imagine most of you in the crowd have stocks that
you own that you've owned for a while that you want to keep and continue to own even if there's
market volatility and if you're somebody that's operating that way,
you shouldn't use day traders who are all cash at the end of the day
and who are up 150% on the year.
You shouldn't use that as your benchmark
if you're managing a portfolio of positions
because it's a very different game.
It's a completely different game, actually.
If you're a day trader that's cash at the end of every day,
you have a tremendous amount of flexibility to play the volatility with the way it goes, right? You can chase the gap up, you can chase the gap downs with size, right? Most of you aren't operating that way. And for those of you that are, this market this year probably hasn't even been bad for you. You know, if you're operating that way, volatility is a great thing. It's a gift. You know, But where it's hard to manage a portfolio is if you have a basket of positions.
You don't want to sell them during market volatility.
That's where position management, portfolio management comes in place.
Things like hedging your portfolio, things like trimming and adding to positions.
That's where sophisticated portfolio management comes in place.
And so a lot of people in markets like this just get shaken out of everything.
They sell everything.
Or worse, they sell everything and go short,
and they get destroyed on days like today.
What you really want to do if you want to operate simply and effectively,
have a basket of stocks that you like, that you have conviction in,
companies you understand, companies you have cost-based advantages on,
and build those positions over time.
When you get into tricky markets like this, hedge and ride them out.
And if you operate that way, net net in the long term, you'll probably do very, very,
very okay.
And it doesn't require, like I said, it doesn't require rocket science, scientists to do that.
It doesn't require you to be an economist to do that or a hedge fund manager to do that.
Anyone can do that. You know, any everyday retail trader to do that doesn't require you to be an economist to do that or a hedge fund manager to do that anyone can do that you know any everyday retail trader can do that so be careful who you benchmark yourself against be careful in in a social media environment where
there are dozens of different trading styles dozens of different portfolio sizes be careful
benchmarking yourself against the crowd because they may be operating very
differently from you and they may be able to as a result of that manage volatility better than you
but that's okay because you know it may that may not be for you trading that way may not be for you
so just wanted to put that little moniker in there
all right this should be interesting i will say we are definitely want to keep this on stocks
and there's some stuff going on but there's a lot of conversations down last night intelligent
we're at an interesting point right now so give you a give you a little bit to come in here
yeah thank you i'll be brief i just come just come for a little victory lap after the conversations that occurred last night. I'm just making sure that everybody's okay. Did you guys take your volume today and get through it all right? Hopefully you all made out pretty well. trusted in the plan are doing quite well today. And Trump did a really good job of shaking out the jeets, as they say.
And it's kind of glorious to watch.
So I can't wait to see what else unfolds as a result of these maneuvers.
But yeah, I was hoping that Special would be on stage today, but apparently he's not here.
He's unfortunately not here.
Yet.
Yet.
Not here yet.
Long time.
You never know.
We might end this.
We might keep going.
But, you know, one thing I will say, though, Diligent, was today's market reaction about the policy, or was it about the policy being delayed?
was it about the policy being delayed? It was about, it was about the, so the fear and uncertainty
was because of the broad stroke of the tariffs, which we, you know, we, we highlighted that last
night. And a lot of people don't understand that that's a circumvention that's to avoid
circumvention by China. This has always been about China. It's primarily about China. If you compare the trade
deficits and the volume of trade or importing into the United States to any other country,
China is by far the number one, right? And they're also the hardest to move. They're our
greatest rival. And so I feel like if you look at it like all of the trading partners
that trump tariffed and and they didn't retaliate like china did they got a reprieve today and when
that happened the markets was was reacting to the fact that he's willing to lift the tariffs
last night i said that i said um the the specials one of specials main talking points is that
trump was going to keep the tariffs on no matter what that's what a lot of people uh in the day
trading you know uh field were saying and i and i never i never believed that and i think he showed
today that he's willing to pivot and he's willing to adjust as as things develop and i think that
that kind of like you know provided you guys some relief right there that fear um that he's just
going to drive it down into oblivion and just let let everything just blow up is gone and he
doubled his thing you know he doubled down on China and made a point to write that that some of their you know, he's got them in a box now where some of their biggest trading partners are not acting against American interests.
And they're probably going to come to the table for negotiation within the next 90 days.
Yeah, I agree that that did change, you know, but, you know, I was just I was only asking that because I feel like the characterization today is that the markets are up because of the tariff policy. And I would say it's the opposite of that. I would say the markets are up because of the lack of tariff policy. And I think that's an important distinction to make because i think it's i think it is a testament to the critics of the policy well i mean that that's not true because
you know uh canada what was announced only for some again like canada mexico the eu china
those tariffs all have remained in place.
So, I mean, to say that there's a lack of tariff policy is simply not true.
Yeah, but there's a rollback.
What I mean by that is there's a rollback of the policy that was announced a week ago.
Would you agree with that?
Yeah, it's a shift.
It's a walkback.
It's a walkback.
Well, I mean, if that was the case was the case then you know why is there 125
terrifying china well let's just phrase it simply would you agree or disagree that donald trump
walked back his tariff policy today do you think that's a mischaracterization
i do believe it's a mischaracterization okay how would you characterize it it was an adjustment
characterize it it was an adjustment yeah because the some a lot of them again playing with semantics
now right no no because the heaviest tariffs are still not only in place but they've been
increased right so if he had walked back on china if he had walked back on canada if he had walked
back on the eu he didn't walk back on china that part i'll agree with right but did he walk or or
the eu or canada did he walk back the chart he paraded around last week i would say yeah
the the chart was always this is where i think there was like a fundamental on misunderstanding
which led to a lot of the fear porn yesterday right the the chart was a tool he literally said that when he
he broke it out he said this is a negotiating tool it was always just a negotiating tool
that chart was never supposed to be permanent and i i still don't understand i just said it
well why did you guys think that that was supposed to be permanent? He never said that those were permanent, right?
That was just a presumption made by a lot of people
who don't understand Trump's tactics.
But he literally told everybody what he was doing.
He said, this is the negotiating tool
to get these countries to come to the table.
For the most part, the broad stroke
was to prevent circumvention of the tariffs
in their entirety.
Like China likes to use vietnam
mexico other countries to circumvent is that circumvention not a concern anymore
i would say that he he probably deemed the countries that didn't retaliate along with
china along with the eu or canada the ones that signaled that they were willing to put up with it for now,
he probably took that as a signal that they were willing to negotiate, if I had to guess.
And I think that would probably be a good assessment.
Yeah, ORA comms raised the simplest explanation is the best.
The bond markets forced his hand last night, right?
Which is what I think happened.
They definitely played into his decision-making 100%.
He said that during the press questions.
Yeah, so I would agree with some of the points you made.
I would disagree with some of them.
And what I would say broadly is my view on today was
Trump caved to the bond market
and walked back his broader tariff policy
and focused it on China.
That's what I would say.
And I think the equity market sell-off probably didn't concern Besant,
and it probably didn't concern Trump,
but I think the bond market did concern both of them.
And I think that's what the stimulus was for today.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the 10-year yield
made its biggest three-hour move in the last five years last night.
And immediately after that
this morning or this afternoon, we get an announcement of a pause. I mean, that would be a
pretty remarkable coincidence, right? After two weeks of hardline talk on the subject. And look,
I agree with you. My original opinion when we first came in was, hey, if they do use tariffs,
it'll be a negotiation tool. But when he stood by it,
I moved away from that opinion. When he stood by it and held up the chart and said, hey,
no exemptions, all of these tariffs are going in, in fact, they per lines.
Myself and a lot of other people were like, oh, shit, he's serious about it.
And so now in hindsight that he's taken them away, can we go back to saying they were a
negotiating tool? It's like, yeah, I guess.
You know, but I mean, at what point, you know, if you have a big stick and you're using that stick as a negotiation tool and you hit somebody with the stick, is it still a negotiation tool?
I mean, technically, yeah. You know, but what is the impact of that on your negotiating power?
I don't know. That question remains to be answered, and we'll find out in the coming weeks and months
if China does end up coming to the table.
But look, if the goal here was to isolate China,
then assuming the EU and everyone else cooperates
with this 90-day pause and comes and negotiates
new trade agreements, then yeah,
that will have been successful.
But if that doesn't happen and we end up just signing a trade
agreement with china and this is much ado about nothing then what was accomplished here in the
first place like if this ends in slightly raised tariffs for irrelevant trading partners and a new
trade deal with china and a new trade deal with the eu then you know what was the point of the
turmoil in the first place out of all of place? Out of all of the tariffs,
the one with China is going to be the one that's going to stick.
We have a trillion-dollar trading deficit with China.
Unless they come to the table
and renegotiate some kind of extravagant deal,
I guarantee that China is going to have hard-line tariffs
in perpetuity throughout the Trump administration
unless like some kind of magic deal occurs, right? Like that's just facts, I believe.
And I believe that was probably always the intent. And most of the people I was talking to
even last night agreed with that sentiment. So again, we'll have to wait and see. Time's going to tell.
I think the 90 days are going to flush out the hardliners. And I think most countries are
probably going to cave or come to the table and negotiate a favorable deal as opposed to dealing
with the economic stripe that's going to come along with not having access to the United States
consumer market. Because that's pretty much what it is not having access to the united states consumer market
because that's pretty much what it is right like you're you're destroying their profit margin so
it's not worth worth it for them to sell in the united states so so you're pretty much just cutting
them off from the largest consumer market in the world right we what was it like we consume like 33 or a third of the world's uh goods right
so like uh he's wielding that he's leveraging that against them and china and i think china
is gonna fold too like you know because china it doesn't matter if they don't sell us their goods
they're screwed you know like like they depend upon us.
We can survive without them for time being.
Would it be hard?
Yeah.
You know, are we going to struggle?
Yeah.
But they really can't survive without us, like at all.
So, Dilidah, last night listening to your comments,
is the goal here to rework the global economy?
Or is it to rework our relationship with China?
Well, I mean, those things aren't, like, you're acting like those two things are not the same, right?
Like, in the global economy, it is the it is the us and china and then all the other
countries right like that is they have the fastest growing gdp and we have the largest consumer
market so like those things are are not uh separate no because you said every country was taking advantage of us.
That was what you were saying last night, but you're also
saying the whole goal
the entire time was just
China.
I'm just trying to clarify which side of that
book.
Two things can be true at the same time.
Which is, most of the countries
that he slapped tariffs on
were either to avoid circumvention.
Again, I did say that last night
or because we have a trade deficit with them
because of bad trade deals.
Canada and in Mexico, for example,
like in the space, you guys were telling me last night
that we didn't have a trade deficit with Canada.
We come to find out we have an $ billion dollar trade uh deficit with canada right like again i think that it was
how much did stock talk lie last night that's what i wanted that wasn't it wasn't stock talk it was
it was special since i said that i came on stage because there was like an unhinged emotional rant about Donald Trump.
I could have swore for like hours, right?
And then when I get, and people were DMing me and they're like, this has been going on for two days.
And I'm like, dude, somebody needs to at least go up there and push back a little bit because i realized fear was driving a lot of people's you know uh
thinking capacity yesterday and if like you can just tell the the the atmosphere in this space
is much calmer today even though right there is a little copium going on a little bit of
of uh you know whatever but yeah it's a lot calmer in here
today so Isaac that's the only reason why I came up yesterday I'm just advocating you know some
patience uh the dude is a successful businessman uh his tactics you know may not agree with everybody
but um I don't see how today was anything but a W, right? Like regardless of the scare or what happened as a result.
And yeah, maybe things got a little hotter than they anticipated with the bonds.
But I think that's because China dumped its bonds.
You know, it started dumping bonds to shore up its own market, right?
And that's why we saw what happened
with the bonds occur which would have been probably an unavoidable result anyways a consequence
of these moves anyways and that's spaces point is that this is a
restructuring of the global order right like that that's that is the point here uh and at the top
of that global order is the united states and china and china has been on path to usurp our spot for a long time.
Joe Biden said it 15 years ago.
A lot of other economists have said it over the last 20 years.
China has been saying it and Donald Trump is trying to do whatever he can to avoid that
type of situation.
And that's going to involve some pain.
That's just my opinion.
Wow. It sounds like I missed a lot that all you guys were political last night.
Hi diligent. I listened to you by the way. I love it because I'm opposite.
My name is Kim mama Vester. I love it because I'm a little bit opposite of you.
I'm not hardcore left by any
means, but I like your takes. And so I always love to open myself up to both sides. So hello,
but I must've missed a great space because normally this isn't a super political group.
So I'm sorry I missed it. I do think if I can just give my two cents here, I'd mentioned it
earlier before you came on diligent.
My husband was a floor trader.
Not that that gives me any street cred, but only because when markets move and I hear him say, you don't see moves like these, that the bond market moving the way that it did.
Even for myself, I was like, holy hell, like, you know, because it was going down. And I think Trump's
original goal was, how is it going to cut? This is part of the way to bring down interest rates,
refinance the debt that we have. And then all of a sudden you had that, you know, bond market and
interest rates moving like a mean stock. So I think that was a huge concern for a
lot of people. And I can't say it didn't play into any of his thinking today, right? Like
at some point, if the whole entire financial market is cracking, not just the stock market,
but we're talking our banking system. And I'm
not saying it was going to fall apart, but just that it was starting to crack, you know, it makes
sense to come in and kind of stop it. And I do think that that's partly why he did it today,
it today but obviously i can't be inside his head
but obviously I can't be inside his head.
don't you guys feel a little bit more reassured knowing that he'll he's willing to adjust his
tactics to and respond to what happens with the market anyways i mean just a little bit regardless
of your political affiliation or any preconceived notions you might have had about his tariff strategy.
Can I go first?
I do agree with you.
I do think that's important.
But the flip side of that is I think it's really hard for even myself to plan, right?
Like, I don't need the market constantly going up. I
love downturns. I mean, you can make some of your best money when a market is going down,
but I think it's just kind of not knowing where this going and feeling like in the dark,
that even for myself, I'm being a lot more cautious. And it's not because the market was down.
It's because it feels a little bit like an abyss, so to speak.
And so, you know, and I'm an experienced trader and an experienced investor.
I'm older than most of these people up here.
So, you know, I've seen big downturns.
But I do think that that's kind of the piece that clouds it for me.
I was still buying, but I was buying really small.
And just even as a consumer or as somebody who has a family, I personally am cutting back because I feel like things are...
Personally, I feel like it just feels somewhat unstable. So yes, I'm glad, but I would
like to see it more, like what I was saying to somebody is, let the air out of the balloon
slowly, because we've had, we're on QE5 since 2008. And it's disgraceful that everything is
propped up by quantitative easing and printing money.
But I think it's better to let it out slowly versus burning the house down.
No, I agree.
You know, the cautious, pragmatic approach.
the cautious pragmatic approach but i just i i also understand the fact that you know trump is
not only trying to renegotiate our foreign trade policy but he's also downsizing the government
he's also i mean there's a lot of things happening at the same time um and and there's also an active effort to undermine any
type of of moves that he's making and and that slows things down right and so he has a very short
window in which to act and try to you know he's actually he's actually you know, he's actually, he's actually, you know, they were like talking about the great reset over COVID, which, you know,
some might argue did happen or didn't happen.
I think that's exactly what we're seeing take place. You know,
they're creating their own shakeup and great reset one way or the other.
And I think he's just trying to create a situation where, you know,
the United States remains as the number one superpower during that reorganization. And I
think that's, I think that's the point is that he understands that there's likely not going to be
another opportunity like we have right now with, you know, all three branches of the government,
right now uh with you know all three branches of the government more or less in the control
of a single party uh to try to get you know carry out that agenda and so i think that you know the
we're going to see more drastic moves coming coming down the pipeline and somebody said in
my in my space i was hosting on this and i agree with her that this is probably not going to be
the worst of it we're probably going to see another plunge um another reaction a negative reaction
in the market as a result of you know uh trump's policy not just just trump's policy but as
a result of the agenda uh going forward and, I think that a lot of people are saying
that we're due for a recession anyways, right?
So there is always that.
I might be wrong.
I'm not an economist, so.
Is you guys the space glitching out?
Is anybody even there?
No, no, we can hear you. Sorry, I was just in the background just got back from the gym i'm about to go see luca kick the mavs
ass here in about 20 or 30 minutes so um we will be wrapping this up pretty soon i imagine but
um look i look diligent you know you followed me for a while and i followed you for a while and
you know that i supported this administration going into it.
You know, I've been a big supporter for Elon for a long time, was a supporter of Trump headed into the administration and still am overall a supporter.
I just thought this policy was rolled out haphazardly.
I thought the way it was rolled out was a mistake.
And I thought today was a positive move in the right direction by rolling it back.
I still think Peter Navarro should be fired.
I still hold that belief.
And so, yeah, on the broader basis, I'm with you.
On a more nuanced and detailed basis, I think this was the wrong approach.
I think markets told him loudly it was the wrong approach.
And I think he changed the approach.
And now I think 90 days from now we'll have a very different deal.
And I think you probably will see a willingness.
I should say more of a willingness from Besant and others to negotiate and maybe be, I don't want to use Trump's word, but be kind,
as Trump said, to a lot of our friends and allies, which would be a much better outcome.
You know, I think nations like Australia and Canada who have fought and died with America
in our wars should probably be treated a little differently than the rest of the pack.
But again, these are points of nuance and details that can be debated over the course of weeks and
months. The point is we have now have 90 days to change the base case. And that's a positive thing.
But I do expect the policy to look a lot different 90 days from now than the first one did because
i think this was to an extent a little bit of a tester for the markets to see how they thought about it and and what they how they felt about it and now that the markets have responded loudly i
think they're taking that feedback into account and changing things accordingly so that's kind of
the way i would do it uh part of negotiation is knowing who to negotiate with first.
Right. So like by that's fair.
Yeah. Yeah. So he flushed out by by painting that broad brush with the tariffs.
You know, 70 countries not only didn't reciprocate, but they also reached out to him.
Right. So now we just knocked out 70 countries uh that are going
to be easy to deal with right and and and now he knows which ones he's going to have to negotiate
harder with and then he also knows which ones are just completely ad you know adversarial like in
china's case and and even i would argue eu and and canada right? So I think part of the tactic too is flushing out,
you know, flushing those out.
And so now that they are identified
and you can see, you know, he knows what to expect.
I think you're right.
You know, I think that there's probably going to be
an adjustment in the tactics,
except for I would say China is probably going to be the hardest line. And we haven't heard the end of that yet,
right? I'm waiting to see what their next move is. I don't know. Again, I'm not an economist,
so I don't know what leverage they have that they can do to to hurt like the dollar or anything i know they hold we you know
they hold a lot of our debt um so i'm not really sure what move they're going to make next uh but
it looks like they haven't really backed down based on you know the posts that i've seen from
their embassy and and what i've heard you know in the pipeline on on like social media so i'll have
to wait and see there but yeah i think that's
an accurate assessment that you know they're feeling things out they're going to adjust their
tactics but in certain circumstances uh i don't think you're going to see trump back down
thanks anyways thanks for hosting the space you guys and allowing a uh layman up to participate
we appreciate you we're actually gonna head over into to wrap up here in a second anyway but we appreciate you diligent um yeah i still have no
idea what tomorrow's gonna bring we do have cpi coming out in the morning that's one thing to
watch more headlines too i bet more headlines we're gonna have it's funny i i don't know if
either maybe they were listening
to the spaces or maybe everyone from the spaces were listening to what people were saying over
the last couple weeks and whatever um a lot of things we talked about yesterday were said in
different directions of just random stuff that was possible i need to go to to back to some of
the headlines that i'm specifically thinking but i know i was thinking that multiple times like
we talked about that thing specifically on spaces
there was one talk about
everybody coming together
and going against China, I forgot who said that one
it was
it said US could approach China
as a group with allies
that was one thing that we were
talking about, there's just a lot of examples of that
it was a wild day we had jamie diamond speaking twice this week already i don't
know if that was pre-planned or if that kind of just happened but it's been quite the week
it's going to continue we have earnings literally starting up on friday um you should be following
all the speakers up here we do appreciate everybody should make sure you're following
the host of the spaces uh if you enjoy this type of live free conversations we're live every single monday
through thursday 3 to 5 p.m eastern at least got two hours extra today we had some people having
some some exciting plans for for tonight we just saw the market was green and they were like boom
we're going out time to uh go to the casino get a steak go watch a game do something like that
big night incoming.
Steak dinners for everyone around.
Joking around a little bit.
We'll see.
I switched over to that year-to-date tab.
And for me, as a long-term investor, Apple, definitely a large holding.
95% of our guests come on here and just use Apple as a thing for a negative example.
And some of that isn't self-inflicted. But but also like today uh it kind of just randomly happens so you
know it is what it is my portfolio is still down like 10 so you're today what a day follow the
speakers though that's a good time that is a good time stock Talk you got any words you want to get in here?
any final comments?
if you say go Lakers I'm booting you
that'd be crazy
that's okay
follow Stock Talk
keep it on a rant
doing a lot of stuff
getting a little sick maybe
so it's a good thing
where we're taking
a little bit of a rest here I appreciate the speakers i did uh pin tweet up in the nest above if you want the
best free daily stock market recap in the game we pinned the best one up there it was actually
statistically awarded the number one recap so uh that was a special award only given out by one
person to one group a year.
And that is the newsletter pinned up in the list above.
Check that tweet out.
I appreciate everyone.
Anyone else has any final like magical last words?
Now is a good time to do it.
Stock talk.
One more time.
Look,
stock talks in the shower.
Cause he's about to go house Bud lights at the American airline center all night.
I said, he probably is in the shower because he's about to go house Bud Lights at the American Airlines Center all night. That's right. He probably is in the shower.
Got a good workout in 30 minutes.
Want to look good tonight. Maybe going with a girl.
So, you know, we've done a lot of spaces with Stock Talk.
Have there been a lot of times in the gym?
How many times have you heard him in the gym?
How many times have I been in the gym is where I thought you were going to say not much.
So less than Sock Talk, 200%.
I don't think that much.
He looked good in person.
I know he's going to the gym, but I have a feeling, you know, if we stay long.
Sock Talk, you there?
All right. Have a good one, team Stock talk, you there? All right.
Have a good one, team.
Make sure you're following the speakers.
Check the tweet pinned up in the S above.
Subscribe to my free daily stock market recap.
And yeah, I'll throw it over to you if you want to close this out.
You also get a little bit of an early night.
That emperor door count, where do we end up tonight?
20K, boom. Here we go there we go congrats hey thank you shout out uh evan what time are we going live in the morning 6 a.m what yeah my time or your time i'm kidding i'm kidding i said i don't even think it's
worth it to be live for cpi in the morning so i I may go live at 845 a.m. Eastern. I think that's when it makes sense and just going live
after CPI. This is like March's data. Maybe there's a lot of fear coming into this, but we'll see.
That'll be interesting, of course. Well, it's inflation data and everyone's looking forward
right now instead of looking back and seeing where are we at with inflation,
they're looking forward to see what inflation is going to go to.
And we don't have those answers yet.
So I don't know.
Non-farm payrolls came out on Friday.
We didn't really even budge off of that either.
Like almost zero reaction.
I have a feeling it's going to be the same.
All right. 8.45 a.m. Eastern. Space is starting up tomorrow are you excited i'm excited
follow speakers up here and i'm sure you'll see that spaces
can't wait all right everyone have a very very great rest of your night and uh we'll see you
guys right early in the morning right there on on that stock market. One more time, do we have
stock talk here?
Worth one last try, you know, now we can end it up.
Appreciate everyone.
I'm now
very curious, because that's, I think
I don't know how much on the
spaces specifically, so that
tells me that, like, he was
like, I gotta go to the gym.
I don't know, we'll see. And spaces right now no one no one can hear that besides kim
