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Web3 Prediction Markets: 2025 Highlights 🔮 The Aggregated Ep. 143
Recorded: Dec. 19, 2025 Duration: 2:34:03Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. The End Thank you. Music Thank you. . Thank you. are we ready can we say good morning or good afternoon or good evening or good night
is gm over gmgm yeah is gm over yeah well you don't want to say good night either I mean that would be we wouldn't be leaving
right yeah exactly
that's tricky
I actually I think it was Luke
in the audience that mentioned it yesterday
that like
people on Twitter are the only people to actually
say that like he's like I've got thousands
of Facebook groups and stuff and
none of the mentally
ill people over there
just say GM to each other every single day.
I honestly feel weird saying good morning
when I say good morning.
Yes, I say it to people in real life sometimes.
Mostly people who have some knowledge of crypto
and the memes and stuff
I also say it to my wife and she hates it
she's like stop it it's so weird
do you also when you laugh at something
do you say lull or ruffle
listen we're not
we're not going not turning back the clock that many years rock
yeah ruffle is
diabolical like straight to jail
what about ruffle is diabolical Like straight to jail What about ruffle mayo?
Roll on floor laughing my ass off
I prefer the sriracha variety
But that's just me
The fact you needed to unwind the abbreviation
Says a lot
Yeah, I had no idea
Actually what that one meant at all
So that must be pretty old school, bro.
That's from the days of EverQuest.
It's like when you're really roofling.
So it's exciting to revisit the predictions that we made in the first episode of 2025 in our last episode of 2025.
Do you remember that episode, Rock?
Yeah.
Yeah, so you had me record people's predictions,
and a lot of the people are here today to revisit them.
Nice.
Most of them are super wrong.
Yes, most of them are super wrong.
I'm pretty sure any of our crypto predictions
didn't go as well as we thought.
So yeah, Aztec can't make it today.
He, yeah, he's not feeling well
or having some problems with his throat.
So I'm here in his stead.
Where do you want to start, Rock?
Do you want to start with revisiting your prediction?
Sure.
Put me under the fire.
All right.
Rocky, you said the pendulum is swinging back to a healthier golden age of prosperity.
to a healthier golden age of prosperity.
And what was that in reference to?
I kind of remember.
Economics, specifically.
Yeah.
The markets are definitely looking pretty prosperous out there.
Yeah, not feeling so much.
I mean, we're in a really weird place with economics.
I mean, the stock market is at all-time highs,
but mostly because of big, you know,
Mag7 kind of AI companies, et cetera.
General economy around the world is not strong.
Yeah, we're in a weird place.
It could just be that you needed longer than a one-year time horizon, right?
Do you remember what the – does anyone remember what the context was on that?
What pendulum was I talking about?
I don't even remember.
Was it just – was a year ago a very bad economy and – yeah, I don't know.
I think some people –
I think people were still thinking the markets
were a bit crappy this time last year
just now relatively
looking at it this is much
worse than last year
so we're like yeah it is
I mean I think a lot of pendulums did
move
in different directions over the last
year or two but
economy doesn't seem to be one of them yet.
If you were talking about crypto regulation,
it would have made sense.
Yeah, certainly.
Did you guys see, anyone see the Art Laffer,
the creator of the Laffer curve?
He's predicting that Trump's policies
just haven't had enough time to kick in yet
and that we're going to go into a crazy 5% or 6% GDP growth
kind of era in the next few years.
It doesn't feel that way.
It doesn't feel that way, but...
No, it definitely doesn't feel that way.
But Laffer is a pretty smart guy.
So should we do...
I don't know, Rock, how would you like to structure the episode because i know
we want to talk about predictions markets in generally and then we you know we also want to
maybe make some predictions for 2026 as well as revisit those who made predictions
at the beginning of 2025 so do you want to do introductions plus revisiting? How would you like to go?
Sure. And we could look at some prediction market, some current prediction market markets,
just for fun too. But yeah, actually on this topic, I'm curious what other people,
Actually, on this topic, I'm curious what other people, how would you guys describe either the US or the global economy right now?
It's a very weird place where stocks are doing good, I guess.
But people don't feel like the economy is good, right?
I don't know anyone saying the economy is great right now. I don't know anyone, like the people I know that are either looking for jobs inside and outside of crypto.
It's not like there's a ton of hiring happening.
Jobs numbers have been very weak.
And it's, I mean, this is kind of, this has kind of been a phenomenon for a long time now where, you know, Wall Street and Main Street deviate.
And it feels like that's getting worse and worse. happen even more with AI as labor gets devalued, but owning assets still, there's no reason why
assets would lose their value or the act of owning assets should have value still because
those are capital markets and the capital markets and these assets actually should do very well under an AI era, whereas labor is questionable.
We don't know, will labor be devalued? It feels kind of like it has to, but anyway, so yeah, feels like main street as in normal people are, are not feeling
this quote unquote nice economy. Um, it feels shitty to them. Um, yeah. Anyone have opinions
on this? I think it was yesterday or two days ago that, umck, so they always, at the end of the year in December, they always give 10 predictions for the crypto cycle in the following year.
And I feel like this year they were funny because they said, like, we have no predictions.
We have no idea what's going to happen.
We have no idea what's going to happen.
Good luck in 2026.
And I kind of feel like that's the state of the economy right now where it's so confusing
and there's no obvious up and down because I would say typically when the economy is
strong or the economy is weak, you have kind of metrics that are very strongly correlated,
right?
So you would think like okay inflation is
low job growth is high stocks are doing well that means it's a good economy um or the opposite for
poor economy and right now it's kind of all over the place where things that are typically correlated
are not correlated at all and going in opposite directions of what you would expect so i think that's why it's so hard to put a finger on yeah when has the stock market and gold hit all-time
highs together is that that seems not normal yeah no exactly i mean and then you have real estate i
know it's come down a little bit but the prices are still really really high um with interest
rates being high and i know they've come recently, but then homes are sitting on the market for so
long in the inventory.
Like there are way more people trying to sell homes and buy homes right now, but you haven't
really seen it on the price of real estate.
And that's like, it's so confusing for even just the general real estate market.
Like what is happening?
Everyone's trying to sell their homes.
Nobody can, and no one's looking to take less money than what they put their home up for.
And that's, I don't know.
That's incredibly confusing when you try to predict all of these different markets.
Like, every single metric, it's an upside-down world.
Or not even upside-down.
It's just, like, nothing is related to, uh, things where
traditionally they are. Yeah. Even real estate, I'm in the market to, I'm looking at some properties
and, um, it's weird and it's very area dependent in some areas, real estate's down. Some areas, it's up. Some areas, people are saying it's up,
but then it doesn't really seem up or like nothing's selling.
It's very odd.
Yeah, we're in a really weird place.
And maybe that's because Trump and all of the things
that he's been doing in his administration and his second term are pretty confusing to everyone, right?
What are tariffs doing?
Does anyone know?
Are they really working?
Are they not working?
It's kind of hard to tell.
Half of them haven't even landed the deals yet, so we don't know what's going to happen with them.
It's a very interesting world we're living in right now i want to also touch on the job market too i know
you touched on it slightly but it was weird because if you looked at the job market report
that the u.s just put out there were it beat expectations for jobs gained by like 46,000 additional jobs over what they expected.
But unemployment also was higher than what was expected, which doesn't make any fucking sense to me.
Truthfully, I'm like, how do you gain more jobs than you think?
And more people are unemployed.
Like that is just it's so backward that I don't understand all of the, like, that's, those two things.
Well, the only way that could happen, I think, but there would have to be, that would mean a lot of people would have had to enter the job market that weren't in the job market before.
Because unemployment doesn't just mean how many people are not working.
It's how many people are not working who want to work and who are looking for work there's it's a weird thing yeah and i know that they're slightly different but but yeah
that is weird it's so weird that those two things can coexist yeah i feel like i feel like trump is
definitely amplifying the confusion though um because he's uh overstating how good things are
and he's saying like everything's so great Everything's so great and the average person is not seeing that they actually did a study and only one out of ten people
said that
2025 was a good year for them
on and so, you know, like the most people are
struggling hard right now and then he's on on both sides the aisle and then he goes on TV and says everything's the best it's ever been when it clearly isn't
So, you know, you can argue about how bad it is or how good it is
But it's definitely not the best it's ever been or anywhere near that so that confuses people even more
I think I thought before an economy like Donald Trump
No, I
Cross the board though like people are um their savings are disappearing um
you know the cost of everything is sky high um you know it's it's pretty it's pretty tough in
those aspects and you can just see it from person to person and the people around you
around you um in general maybe some of us are doing a little bit better than others but uh
um in general maybe some of us are doing a little bit better than others but uh
but yeah in general and i think uh we're we're not going to you know like trump or not we're
not going to hear the difference of uh you know what what comes out of that corner in regards to
his you know his way of of of representing things but um yeah i think general people are feeling it
pretty pretty hardcore and it's i don't know if you guys know much about stagflation or any of those aspects,
but there are some weird things happening, whether it's crypto right now and how the
cycle is kind of, you know, shifting in some ways and some of the normal indicators are
not, you know, not showing.
And then also just in our general economy.
So I don't know if you guys know much about stagflation but there's definitely some big shifts that are happening and we are also seeing some of
the biggest money makers as well too uh moving you know capital into you know um into kind of dry
powder on the side like uh i think it was seven six seven months ago, XRP moved some of the largest amount of
money on to central exchanges or XRP onto central exchanges as well too.
You know, some of the major money managers for the largest ETFs and the largest
brokerages are, you know, selling tons of stocks as well too, and getting ready for something. So it seems like there's going to be something massive that's going to occur in the, in the
next little while yeah it's going to be interesting the thing about the whole
um trump economy in general is there's such a mixed bag of things it is really going to be
interesting to see what is good and what is bad.
As far as like, obviously inflation, not great. I mean, I think anyone in crypto like scarce supply things should understand that. But then also tariffs as acting as taxes and acting to
disincentivize certain kinds of trade is also not very good.
But then on the other hand,
you have massive deregulation of the crypto sector,
which if we can just stop gambling for once,
I think that we can get somewhere.
And then you have other things such as other deregulation.
I think that people don't really, in the US at least,
understand the Chevron case of the Supreme Court, how much of an effect that will have
by removing explicit rulemaking abilities for different regulatory agencies, basically making
whatever powers they have have to be a lot more explicit. And that basically means a lot of
regulations are going to be challenged and go away, therefore economy booming. So there's a lot of different
things flying around. And I don't, I don't know, maybe I think if I were to guess though, I'm going
to be pessimistic and say that we will have a kind of stagnating economy of some kind, both ahead of the midterm elections and as well as
ahead of the next presidential election, if I were to guess, it might be like a Democrat that gets in.
So that's just my like hot take. I don't know if that's a prediction yet. I don't know if we've
gotten to the point yet, but anyway. Well, it's not just the U.S., the global economy's kind of
crap too. And one thing that the media has been trying to hide is there were actually three countries
that both sides realized
that the government was screwing them,
came together and overthrew the entire government.
And that was Bangladesh, Nepal, and Madagascar.
And this year, all three of those countries,
the citizens actually overthrew the entire government.
And the Australian media, NBC in Australia actually covered it,
but the Australians were the only ones that were covering it for obvious reasons.
They don't want people to see that kind of stuff.
Mexico came close, but this is a global phenomenon of people
that are not content with what's going on.
And in some countries, starting to realize that both sides
are really screwing them and coming together and saying, you know, we can definitely at least come
together and figure out something better than this. Well, if I could just say, I'm going to
take a moment to do a little libertarian advertisement here. but if you are unhappy with both sides, you may want to look
into being a libertarian. If no matter who is in power, things don't go the way you would like to
see them go, and you think the government gets too involved in our lives, then you may be a libertarian.
our lives, then you may be a libertarian. The way I look at it is I want a small government,
and that was the original intent of our founding fathers in America, at least,
because I don't want to know that any one decision that a government or president makes
is going to really screw up my life. If you have a very small
government, then they could do stupid things and it's not going to hurt you so much. But when the
government is this massive, like it is in every country right now, or most countries, the vast
majority of them, every decision they make affects you in a very strong way. So get them out of our business
and reduce the size of government and you won't be so worried about who's in power and are they
making the right decisions or not making the right decisions? Are they screwing you or not screwing you. Yeah, that's precisely why I, the, the one big hope is crypto. And I mean, there's many,
many things, but as far as like trying to figure out a positive outcome out of a U S administration
or congressional, you know, setup or whatever it is, it's just, just not there. And so the one
thing that did make me sort of bullish about the long-term effects of
good old daddy teabag in there is just how bought he was by the crypto industry in a
very good way.
And I just like politicians are going to go back to their dumb games.
But once we have enough growth in the decentralized sector and we get some of those very slow
moving laws actually put in that favor censorship resistant technology, decentralized sector, and we get some of those very slow moving laws actually put
in that favor censorship resistant technology, decentralized things that give special carve
outs and enshrine self custody and as an actual right, things like that, then that just sort of
sets us up for as the chaos happens around us in the world, the actual productive parts of the economy can
continue to grow and in a decentralized way where if the entire crypto industry, say,
after it gets globalized enough and developed, et cetera, if you have like a crackdown in
a specific nation or whatever, it just doesn't matter as much because it's much more of
a digital cross-border thing and we can kind of grow the
decentralized sector and eventually we get to just stop paying attention to what you know legacy old
school governments say anyway i have a super long rant on the evolving nature of governments anyway
but i'll save that for when someone else gets some airtime. Yeah, let's do actually, let's do your prediction.
And then NFT Demon was just talking too.
Let's revisit his prediction.
Joel, do you remember you actually made two predictions?
Yes.
Oh, and they both came true.
Kind of.
Kind of.
I put them both up on the screen.
One, and I completely forgot I did any of this stuff.
I still don't actually remember it, so maybe I need my head checked, but apparently I did.
But it sounds like something I would say.
One thing I said is within the next couple of years, there will be a big issue regarding prediction markets.
was talking about was some kind of insider manipulation where you can, someone who has
the ability to affect the outcome of the market also places a bet on it and then does it.
And there were a couple of things like this. I linked to one of these about the Google insider
who apparently got leaked information to put big bets on some Google release things.
There was another one also that happened regarding the Russia-Ukraine war,
where someone found whatever data source they were going to pull for to trigger a resolution of
a prediction of how far the Russian forces would advance by this date.
And then they modified the map. They basically hacked it, modified the map to trigger it,
and then just changed it back. And so, yeah, that one came true. That's a little
unfortunate that it happened this fast, but it was going to come true.
to come true. And the other one? Oh yeah. Well, this one is in the process of coming true, but I
And the other one?
also didn't say for the next year. I said before the next bull cycle. So we still have like, I
don't know, like four years or three years before, or I would say two years at least before this,
my deadline is up. I said, every bear market has a cataclysmic event.
I suggest this time it will be micro strategy and Bitcoin that causes it. Now, obviously too early,
but we've seen, I posted up the strategy stock. Strategy is not done very well recently in the
last six months. And there's been a lot of like, but a lot of people screaming about,
you know, a lot of actual like fear around what's going to happen there. Bitcoin, it's in particular
has just not done very well this, this last few months, I guess. And in particular,
during the times of which other, you know, like the privacy sector has actually been pumping and especially Zcash.
And so Bitcoin is being kind of, usually it's some like terrible shit coin that implodes and
drags the whole market down. Now it does seem like it has been Bitcoin and strategy and possibly
some other FUD around other dats. But again, I'm sort of like singing victory a little bit too
early on this one because I sort of predicted what would happen later, but it did start to come true sooner.
And I'm grateful that within the year after I made the initial prediction, I see signs of being right.
So I get to sort of gloat at like holiday parties or whatever, or on this base.
So you're welcome.
So you're welcome.
Right.
Now, so speaking of gloating, NFT Demon, do you remember what your prediction was?
Yeah.
And I actually remember that Rock had offered to make a bet with me and I turned it down, but I shouldn't have.
You should not have.
I bet that by the end of the year, it actually happened much sooner than I turned it down but I shouldn't have. I bet that
by the end of the year, and it actually
happened much sooner than I thought it would,
Elon and Trump would have a falling out.
Quote, Donald Trump and Elon
Musk will have a theatrical
and explosive breakup.
Okay, yeah.
It sounds like what I was saying.
They did.
They did.
Do you have like a crystal ball or whatever you did in there?
No, it's kind of easy to see coming from my standpoint,
but I don't know.
Different people read people different ways.
I guess I was just right on that one.
Should have had that
on a predictions market.
Speaking of, you know what I looked for
on a predictions market yesterday,
but I could not find it, was
will Trump pardon the samurai
developers?
I feel like that would be one that people would gamble
Is it not up on Polymarket?
It's not on Polymarket, no.
I thought I saw, maybe it's on Kalshi or something,
because I could have sworn someone said chances are of the pardon for that
are like 54% or something.
Yeah, probably Kalshi.
Probably Kashi.
I looked on Polymarket yesterday.
I just looked on Polymarket yesterday.
Yeah, you should have placed that bet on FTD.
Wait, are you using predictions markets at all?
You've obviously got some kind of insight.
Are you ever placing bets and trying to capitalize on that insight?
Yeah, I do.
I play the prediction markets sometimes uh just it just
depends upon what particular events are going on and how strong i feel about something
sometimes i feel like strongly that something's gonna happen but i don't know about like the
time frames so i sometimes will avoid things that like i'm confident are going to happen but there's like
four different time frames and i'm not quite sure where in that it's going to where it's going to
fall so it was actually on polymarket it's just under the who will trump pardon before 2027
and eric adams is the leader at 55 steve man 54 and keone rudriguez the samurai guy
at 54 so yeah he's he is on there okay yeah i just i searched it for trump pardon samurai i
looked in the wrong section i guess okay well i'm glad it's up there
so the only other person who was here at the beginning of the year and made a
prediction last year is two cent Timmy.
Actually, before we go on, can you guys hear me?
Yeah.
Okay.
I kept trying to talk earlier, but I was rugged.
I came back.
What was the first, first uh prediction uh joel
uh the poly market i mean the prediction market yeah that's an interesting one i i wanted to
jump in there but again yeah my mic was messed up um what uh what do you guys think about that? So with stocks, we have insider trading rules, at least in America.
That generally makes sense.
You know, you can't buy or sell stocks if you have special information that the public doesn't know yet.
But in prediction markets, what do you guys think?
Should there be rules against that?
Um, my general instinct is always leave us alone.
Government will figure it out.
Um, but there's definitely, there's pros and cons to it.
If you, if you look at the betting markets as a tool for speculators and gamblers, if
that's more what they, they are, like you think that's the value that comes from them,
then you may lean towards, yeah, this is unfair.
We need some rules around this.
If you look at, however, if you look at the markets
as tools to find truth,
so truth finding machines
or what they're actually called a prediction market,
something that actually can predict events the best,
then you may not want to have these rules,
these insider trading rules.
Because, for example,
I think it was like one minute before, uh, Iran was bombed.
Someone made some, you know, someone swung the market.
So someone knew and someone bet on it.
Now, the interesting thing is you could use that information.
You could, I don't know if you were a country and now you knew that you were about to be
bombed, you could, you know, I don't know, turn on your defenses or something.
But but generally, do you guys think there should be rules around this?
Do you guys think that like let me give a better example.
If there was a presidential election and all of a sudden the numbers swung strong in one way uh like let's say a presidential
candidate was going to drop out the prediction markets would have people that have special
information and that's what makes them so accurate so if someone was on someone's cabinet and knew
they're dropping out of the race so they made a bet against that that person yeah that's kind of kind of wonky but
at the same time now we know that that's that prediction market is more accurate than polling
because polling would have no idea about these kind of events but a predictions market would
i have a feeling and like i'll probably get killed um and don't, I know that like, I don't feel good about
this, but I think there's with prediction markets, a lot of times you're, I feel like you're dealing
with three types of markets. One, I'm not even going to call a market. It would be the sporting
market where it's like basically gambling. Who's going to win this game? Who's going to win the
MVP? All of those things. Putting that aside aside then you have financial markets and then you have information markets
and i feel like information markets i don't see a problem because people are going prediction
markets are set up where you have uh consumers that use the prediction markets as a way to
consume information and then you have the
people who I would say are betting, but giving the information. And information markets have
never been regulated. Like if you are a reporter and you get information, you want to rush to
whatever outlet you have to put that information out. And that happens all the time. And now you
can just do it in a prediction market where
it's commercialized. But I do think in financial markets, there should be some form of regulation.
Maybe you have to KYC people who like KYC to start going into the financial market the same
way you would have to do if I'm a you you can't own a public company and then trade stock on just a Fidelity brokerage account for your company.
That would get flagged.
And the same thing is they have those earning calls all the time that have this kind of, okay, you're in a public space.
And there's also like weird earnings calls.
I know there was a big controversy.
It must've been six weeks ago,
two months ago,
where on the Coinbase earnings call,
Brian Armstrong just literally read everything that,
poly market had.
Will Brian Armstrong say these words.
And before he closed the earnings call,
he just went through it and said it.
and I think those things are, it's but i do think there's that's a weird one and a surprising one for
someone in in a his his position at a publicly traded company in a in a controversial industry
that's already gotten a lot of flack for him to do that. That's, but it's kind of an interesting, it gets us thinking it's pretty cool.
Yeah,
And it's,
I don't know.
It's,
it's this weird,
this weird scenario where it goes on in my head where it's like,
if you are gambling,
like I think everyone should be able to do kind of what they want as long as
they're not hurting other people.
But also it seems it's almost pointing out the stupidity
of betting on people saying words
when you have absolutely zero control of the outcome.
Because I think, like, you could make a statement
of like, yeah, that's what he's doing.
And I think people that continue to bet on that,
like, oh, wait, why am I doing that?
Because, like, the idea of somebody always knows
really comes up.
But yeah, to summarize in short...
It's like meme coins.
They're betting on stuff you have no control over.
And you should know what you're getting into too.
That's actually an incredibly interesting part of the prediction market.
As mentioned, market is really cool.
And there's people that are finessing that quite a bit right now.
Like some of the main KOLs on X that are actually broadcasting live speeches or sporting events
where they're doing mention markets of the actual announcers during a football game or whatever,
but they get really deep into their own niche. So for example, with politics, they'll be watching
all of the speeches that Trump does following the current news and seeing what's actually happening to see what, you know, is actually going to be more likely or less likely.
And then super niche things that could be, you know, could potentially be mentioned.
And there's just that there's quite a there's different ways to find edges.
ways to find edges, right? Which is, I think is really cool. The other aspect too, just to kind
Right. Which is I think is really cool.
of go on what, you know, the last person was saying there is, you know, having this type of
edge, I think is a part of the game of it. But also like you were saying, Rock also adds a lot
of like information and opportunity for people to see what's going to come and see what the relative,
what, how relative something is in our society
and where people are actually leaning in a more fair and honest type of way
instead of the propaganda of mainstream media and those aspects, right?
And so, for example, I have a friend of mine who is like ex-military and he's very close to like the uh the military wings the you know the
information wings of the military and people that were say were in the cia or uh other aspects of
military and they're no longer in it but what they've researched because they have a really um
they're creating a prediction market venture capital uh group and then also they're creating a prediction market venture capital, uh, group. And then also they're really involved in Cal sheet, poly market and other, uh,
other prediction markets. And they did a bunch of research and, you know,
really they're coming in with the idea that as long as it doesn't like harm or
affect anybody, like you're not releasing information that could, you know, uh,
be fraudulent or for example, um, you know, hurt yourulent or, for example, you know,
risk your country or risk your people or whatever,
but you have access to something and you're privy to something
before anybody else is, just like kind of what we're doing
in the crypto space where we're learning about information
and putting ourselves forward and putting time and energy
into things to get, you know, in the know about a new type
of technology before other people are.
There's always edges to everything. Right. So, yeah,
I think it's a kind of multifaceted thing. And you know,
I think at the end of the day, if you can figure out not how to not hurt people,
but how to make money as a sovereign human, I think it's, you know,
very important to have that type of freedom.
So let me chime in on this whole thing. I, first of all, I think when you're talking about the government, I personally believe that government officials or Congress people, all that should be banned don't mean, well, they just happen to be in a better position. No, they're literally in a position to coerce outcomes via armed force if necessary. Like,
they could literally shut down a company with, you know, sending people with guns to do it or
whatever. And that kind of thing, they should absolutely be banned from being able to personally
profit on it because otherwise they will use their manifestly unfair power of violence to do this so in terms of government officials absolutely
in terms of the free market i don't think anyone should be really interesting but could i reading
could i pause you on that one well just here i'll just say that's that's a really good point man
that's a really fucking good point now you will will, you, if you ban them from that,
they have the best information, right? Because they're making the, they're writing the story.
So if you do that, while it seems fair and, and correct, I like all your points, you just made
that really good, but we will weaken the efficiency of those markets or the truth of that truth machine, I think, if we do that, right?
Because we don't have the – it's like letting the person who writes the book tell you, you know, predict what's going to happen at the end of the book.
Yeah, so I don't think that they should have – obviously, everyone should know my personal point on this, which is I don't think they should have the power to affect these outcomes
anyway.
I think the government should have basically no power at all if we can get,
or at least we can get away with it.
So the fact that they're able to actually swing stock prices of major
companies shows that they shouldn't have that power to begin with.
But while they have that power,
I would say they cannot be incentivized to then
profit off of that. So are we proposing that, you know, the CIA is using, you know, the prediction
markets as a propaganda tool? Not necessarily, but they could be using it as a side income tool,
just like has the CIA been, has the CIA ever profited off of selling illicit illegal drugs yes
they're probably doing this too yeah so screw that just ban them and the CIA is a whole different
uh you know can of worms because of like how little oversight there is on anything they do
to begin with but I'm just thinking about like the more obvious things.
Like if someone is in Congress or is a regulator or whatever,
like for example, there's like, when will the Clarity Act pass?
How about the people literally working on the Clarity Act
and their staff should be banned from actually putting bets on that
because they literally get to say, you know what?
I got a
big thing around polymark i'm going to delay the vote but like isn't that the purpose of like having
these decentralized wallets and being able to you know yeah exactly it's like you can you can stop
the first tier of people but like then their family members of the people around them and just like
their community around them that communicates with them.
I mean, of course they're still not supposed to release sensitive information, but it's like, you know, you're still going to have conversations.
You're still going to get the vibe of,
of where things are going or what's happening based off of who's around you.
And that will come out in some way or another.
Yeah. By the XO market, you know, you don't have to raise your hand, right?
ExoMarket?
Yeah, I just didn't want to crash the conversation, but it was really interesting.
Yes, you can always just jump in.
We don't have any manners around here.
Yeah, just throw some mashed potatoes around.
No, I just love the conversation that's going on.
To be honest, like inside trading in
my opinion that makes prediction market what they are currently now banning specific actors from
betting on market that's almost impossible as you guys know anybody can spin up a wallet and
like send some USDC to it and start trading on what they can control basically however it is
also an expensive game right right? Like it depends
on how much you want to manipulate the market. Because if you want to sway the market to your
side just out of manipulation, that's a very expensive game, especially on things that matters.
So if it matters, it means there is deep liquidity. If there is deep liquidity,
it becomes really expensive to manipulate. But from somebody profiting From an information they have
An edge they have
That's basically almost everywhere
We are now focusing on prediction markets
Because it has to do with politics
But with sports it has been done for ages
In almost any kind of
Betting
Domain
Didn't we just have a big deal with that?
What is it, the NBA?
Or NFL?
Didn't some massive
bust happen?
They used to pretend that they were injured
or they would
play very badly to
not get their team winning so they can cash out.
It has been happening.
The recent event you're talking about,
some NBA players bet on games that they weren't playing in, but they're not allowed to bet on sports at all.
So, yeah, I remember that.
I think it happens a lot in the UK, especially in the Premier League, where players are also not allowed to bet even on if they're
participating or not participating, but they do, right? They have nephews, they have cousins,
they have like a million way to do it. And it's always going to happen. If anything, I see it to
some extent, like how do you consume prediction market? Like we hear about Polymarket that
millions of dollars of volume and like hundreds of thousands of users.
Actually, majority of the volume of polymarket, we all know that it's 50 percent of the volume is coming from like 100 whales, 150 whales on polymarket.
The other 50 percent is from the 200,000 users.
The way that people are consuming prediction markets these days, the majority of them, they're just looking at odds of something happening.
Right. And they're building some opinion based on these odds.
And we saw the mayor of New York, he was always mentioning his odds on Calci, for example.
Like, ah, today we are like this much on Calci, that much on Calci.
So there is a lot of people who are consuming prediction market as news,
and a very few, like, percentage of that are actually adding liquidity and participating in the prediction
market. And if these insider trading is not happening, the other majority of consumers
who are reading the odds will stop using it. But the curious thing is, is like, there's
obviously this massive push happening right now for, you know, the adoption of this technology,
specifically we're seeing in the crypto space,
we're seeing some of the major powers globally
supporting different prediction markets,
supporting this narrative.
And it's seemingly, I mean,
maybe this has been said about a lot of things,
but it's seemingly not just a narrative.
It seems like prediction markets
have found a product market fit.
And this could be something that's quite global outside of crypto,
especially with like credit card payments. And when,
you know,
it's more 2.5 and people don't have to interact so heavily with,
you know,
wallets and crypto and blah,
blah,
blah,
blah.
But you just,
obviously you see what happened with poly market in the election,
how poly market busted in the mainstream based off of
the election the american election and how relevant that actually was like bringing up those charts on
in mainstream media where fox and cnn and the major outlets were actually covering um you know
something that's quite relevant to our industry and quite completely relevant to this conversation and the theme of this space right now and uh i think what it comes back to is we
can't uh because of blockchain because of the aspects of betting and some of those aspects
we can't control individuals per se maybe you can ban certain people from taking part but like you
said their their relatives their friends their community them, you can't stop them. But I think the big thing is how those potentially could be manipulated by like central
figures, X or social media platforms or different, you know, regulators or whatever.
I think that's the big question. And, you know, we'll see how that kind of unfolds as things move forward, because, you
know, it was not just good for just Trump.
It was good for the election as a whole to see, you know, where people were positioned
and real time, what people were betting on.
And so I think that's a major factor to look at and to see going forward.
Yeah, 100%.
Actually, the election is a great example of how insider trading worked out
because, as you guys know,
Polymarket and Kalshi were the only two places
that favored Trump over Kamala Harris.
Every other poll was saying Kamala Harris will win.
Now, a lot of people, they say,
that's like intelligence of the mass
or like people are not being honest
when they go and do the polls
compared to how they do
when there's money on the line. The way I see it is a bit different because even though
people were betting with real money, they're still not betting on like wishful thinking.
It's not wishful thinking. I'm not going to put like 500 bucks on Trump if I really don't think Trump will win.
It's mostly that I will be affected by the polls. I will see the media as favoring Kamala. So
if anything, I will put my money where I think I will win. So the reason why polling market became
polling market and prediction markets hypes kicked off with the elections was because that was the
only place it was more accurate
but the question is why was it more accurate most probably because there were people with knowledge
people with like you know you know we all know about cambridge analytica and the whole thing
like these kind of people were putting money on the line because they know something and that's
what tipped the edge to like 52%, 53% when it was everywhere else.
Trump chances opening was at 48%, 47%.
Yeah, it could be a matter of, just as a random example,
could be something where when people are talking to pollsters,
they're embarrassed to say, you know, they would vote for Trump.
They say Kamala. But when they're talking to their friends or family in DMs, maybe they are more honest.
Or let's say you're Google and you have access to all people's search history.
Well, maybe they won't admit publicly.
Let me actually tell you what it was.
Yeah, go ahead.
There was actually a story about
this there was a polymarket whale out of france who made a ton of money off of trump winning the
election he bet pretty early and he put millions into it he commissioned his own polling for this
again this is the beauty of the free market is traditionally you just had whatever polling
systems tell people whatever they want to do.
And political insiders have their own polling, but it's all kind of inaccurate.
This guy, when he wanted to make a big bet, he decided to commission polling.
And so first of all, the normal polls were just, who are you voting for?
And of course, it's like, who answers these questions anyway?
I've never answered one of those.
And this obviously sample size people are going to say, oh, who are they voting for? And of course it's like, who answers these questions anyway? I've never answered one of those. And this obviously sample size people are going to say, Oh, who are they voting for? But you might have things not kind of fall through the cracks. What this polymarket
whale, when he, he commissioned these specific polls that did the neighbor poll where they just
said, who are your neighbors voting for? And then they got data that's indicated like a
Trump wipeout. And then he's like, oh shit. And so then he threw millions of dollars on the Trump
bet and he won. And so the polling data, the financial incentive of actually making money
off of an accurate prediction, because when you have the two different like parties fighting
against each other, no one is going to completely switch if they think the odds are in the other's favor.
They're both going to fight till the end.
They have no incentive to just be completely accurate.
But if you have money on the line, you do.
And then that promoted some actual innovative polling and data sources
that just got an actual accurate prediction.
I think that's actually
pretty cool. And I do think that that will change the face of electoral polling, at least in the US,
forever now. I mean, this makes sense because you're saying when you have money on the line,
I mean, that's basically what capitalism is, right? Is the free market, is the signal.
right, is the free market, is the signal. Everything else is noise. So money is a very
strong language that we speak across the planet. And money is just kind of pure signal.
You know, people, you know, someone, there's people out there that would kill their own mother
for the right amount of money. So money is a very powerful signal.
And in these prediction markets,
if there's money on the line,
people will find every single way to get an edge.
And over time,
they'll probably just become more efficient.
Barring, there may be,
depending on the rule set,
how much manipulation or weird things happen.
XO markets, you actually mentioned earlier different types of creating laws or not creating laws or whatever. Kind of different areas where these markets can be either broken or whatever.
What were the different types you said?
So you said there's manipulation where you're trying to use money to change the outcome
so that you change people's opinions, you change the public opinion.
And then there's having insider information that just gives you an edge.
Was that all of them?
Or did you have another one?
Or do you want to expand on this?
Yeah, I mean, what I was saying that there's also a lot of accusations
to prediction markets that they could become a tool of manipulation
like of the public opinion.
But my view on this is very clear.
When something actually matters, there will be a lot of liquidity.
If the public opinion matters to a specific topic, it will be an expensive game. But for me,
it's similar to spending a budget on marketing. Let's say you want to sway the public opinion
on something, you would need a lot of money to affect the opinion of people and the worst tool you could use is actually prediction
market because it has a lot of risk high risk for you and it requires a lot of capital locked until
that specific event happens so i don't see that this is big risk it is there of course with the
right amount of money you will be able to sway the prediction market and potentially also the opinion of the people who check these prediction markets.
But it's a very expensive game.
I mean, this is different from insider trading.
Insider trading is actually trying to make money, while TIA manipulation is actually trying to sway the opinion using money.
sway the opinion using money.
Well, you might be trying to make money in the long term,
but you're willing to potentially lose money on the prediction markets
as, like you said, kind of marketing spent,
which could make sense, right?
You lose money on the prediction market maybe,
but you're taking the risk of if you can sway the opinion enough,
you get power in
in government indeed if you have enough also you like change the direction of a specific outcome
be it a yes or no or an election or a candidate you have enough money to sway the outcome yes
you are doing that but it is again a big risk because in the end when a prediction market has
enough base users uh you're taking a risk that people will agree on something else and they will just sway the market back.
And then you basically lost all this liquidity that you invested for something that's not as guaranteed as these days. Facebook ads are the one of the most powerful way to sway the opinions of voters because most of voters are like, you know,
of a senior age and most of them are full on Facebook.
So it's still a way more efficient tool to sway public opinion compared to
the trade.
Or you know what?
Another thing you could do, you could use it to not just strengthen public
opinion or try to sway,
but you could also do it to break the morale of your opponent,
right? If you can swing the prediction markets strong enough against them, maybe they drop out
of a race or something. Another interesting thing is that I've wondered about is how, yeah,
how much do these become kind of self-fulfilling prophecies? So when I see like Jerome Powell,
you know, the Fed lowering rates, these markets, which I think is probably the one I check the
most often. When you see that, you have to wonder if it says 90% that they're going to do something.
It's, this is like in stocks, you know, there's earnings predictions, and then they have the
earnings calls. And it's all about, it's not even about did they have good earnings or not always?
It's like, how did the earnings compare to the predicted earnings? And so with Jerome Powell,
And so with Jerome Powell, just real quick with, with, with the Fed,
if it says a 90% chance of a cut, do you want to go against that as Powell?
Do you want to go against that as the Fed?
So does it become the tail wagging the dog that the markets are swinging now
the opinion of the government?
I think the policy of the government.
You want a different way than I thought you were going to go.
Because you can actually run a test.
And I, just thinking out loud, but you made me think like, you can also do stuff where
the predictions don't depend on like human action.
There's a whole bunch of prediction markets where it's like, what's the temperature in
New York going to be on this day? And you can actually have people who are doing the calculations,
getting their prediction markets. And that's one of those information markets where I feel like
if you're smart and you can predict the weather and you can make a whole bunch of money doing that,
then all the power to you. And then you can actually test. Are we going to get better,
better weather predictions now because of prediction markets? Yeah. And then you can actually test. Are we going to get better, better weather predictions now because of prediction markets?
Yeah. And then, but you can also test how likely the weather says, and you can back test it as
your call it sample, like your control in a scientific test. And then you can go, okay,
now on markets where humans have a say in the outcome, like Fed rate cuts, do those line up?
Do they happen with
about the same likelihood or does it happen uh to a different likelihood and i think that would
actually i haven't done it i haven't seen anyone do it but i actually think that would be a very
interesting case study to go okay what happens what happens now based on like yeah whether we
know humans can't control the weather but we can kind of predict it
and people can make bets on it
that's arguable
on whether or not the humans can't control the weather
and there are certain areas
that's it
no one can control the weather
you can't control the weather
I was going to bring up that conspiracy
I was going to bring up the conspiracy aspect too
Richard, which is actually hilarious
yeah
people start betting it's going to rain and the conspiracy aspect too, Richard, which is actually hilarious. Yeah.
People start betting it's going to rain and they just start cloud seeding.
They're going to start ramping up their cloud seeding
and their chemtrails and stuff
to win the prediction market bet for the weather each day.
As an insurance.
Imagine you're going on vacation somewhere
and you're looking forward to this vacation. You can put some money, like imagine you're going on vacation somewhere and like, you know, you're looking forward to this vacation.
You can like put some money, like 500 bucks on that.
The weather will suck that day in that place.
And if it actually sucks, then at least you make some money.
If not, then you go and enjoy your vacation.
You're using it as a vacation hedge.
Yeah, exactly.
You hedge your events.
It could be on anything.
Actually, in the extra market we're building now, like a gas
market thing where we track the gas fees
on different chains and people can
hedge against an expensive gas in the future.
So it is the same idea
that you can apply to almost anything.
I think they do that in Bali where they
hire
a shaman or somebody to come
in and like you know try to like not have rain happen on on certain events
i love that they they do prayers and tap into the to the gods i'm actually i'm curious on some like
more technical aspects about prediction markets i know we have have, you know, every X here and XO here,
you know, representing their prediction markets. And, you know, I'm curious on like some of the
different things that are happening with prediction markets right now, like next generation things,
and, you know, the difference between parimutials and CDF style and, or CFD style. And, you know,
I'm curious about some of those things and some of the impacts that
potentially different ways of running prediction markets can affect some of the aspects that we're
talking about, because now there's lots of prediction markets starting to come out with
some coming out with like leverage options that aren't running yet, but they're talking about it.
There's others that are running, you know, different styles.
Like I said, Parimutuel or CFD or whatever.
I'm just curious.
I would love to hear from EveryX and XO as well too
about maybe some of the things that they feel like,
you know, in their tech they're implementing
that could actually affect some of the topics
that we're saying.
If there's any difference in the tech
and if that affects, you know, whether the predictions are going to actually affect, you know, politics or
the way people bet or how they're trying to make money or the edges that they're looking for. Um,
we'd love to hear a little bit more about that. If that's okay, if we, we segue at some point,
maybe not right now, but at some point into that? Yeah, I didn't want to mess up the conversation like ExoMarket was saying, so I didn't say anything, but hey, guys.
Yeah, I mean, I think that's the most interesting thing that's happening right now is that I see a
lot of talk about leverage prediction markets coming out. And of course, we are offering the
offering the same thing. Many people are offering leverage on prediction markets in a different way.
same thing. Many people are offering leverage on prediction markets in a different way.
But this changes the narrative for many ways and many reasons as well. And I think the tech behind
leverage is different on many ways. For example, there's space that's doing with Calci. I think
they're piggybacking from the liquidity that Calci has and trying to offer leverage because of this.
And we have been doing leverage prediction markets in Asia,
and they love it.
And they were only trading a dollar if they had a dollar
on any trades, any bets that they had.
But with leverage, they can do 10x leverage on just normal sports,
weather, like you're saying, crypto, anything.
And I think this opens up a new avenue for low capitalized countries as well.
So it's very exciting. I wonder if like when people do leverage, do they run out of money
faster? Because these things are also like you guys are the house. So I don't know if legally
you would call yourself that, but if they do leverage, do you see behaviors of like they run out of money faster and now they're
just out of the markets or do they i wonder how that how you look at that no i mean for us we're
definitely not the house it's a pari mutual so they're they're trading against each other and
of course we're offering leverage so if they uh go below a threshold, they get liquidated like in futures trading.
I think leverage with prediction market is a really interesting use case.
I think it's different from PERC to some extent that prediction markets, they fluctuate much more because that one single event could drop the market from like 90% to 10%.
But also like during that time, there's a lot of fluctuation. The reason
why we didn't do yet leverage, I'm excited about it. And I know for a fact most of all users will
be like liquidated left and right. So I'm not sure if they will be happy if we do it. It's definitely
a more DGN thing to do. So for now, we are heavily focused on user generated markets. The idea of
polymarketing is really cool but it's still
like a centralized way of creating the markets which markets to trade on right especially if
you guys I mean most of you I think in the US so for you you guys are really well served like there
is enough of politics and sports market on polymarket and culture when it comes to that
prediction markets however outside of the us or even inside of the us
or like you know different markets it's quite challenging to keep up with everything and try
to have a market on everything so that's why we focus on user-generated markets so literally
anybody can call and create a market about anything as long as it can be verified the biggest challenge
behind this was that resolution and how you resolve markets,
how do you verify this market is not manipulatable and whatnot.
So this is where we spent the majority of the last year
is building XO Oracle,
which use AI agents like different models
to qualify every single market that gets submitted.
So if you allow me some advertising,
we have a quick swap market.
It was created by a quick swap team as well about the TVL on base.
So definitely go check that out.
If you think quick swap can increase their TVL before the 25th of December,
this is the time where you can bet on it.
Wait, so if I just go drop a million in some LPs,
can I just bet on myself?
Exactly.
So I think it would be happy
with his manipulation.
Is that legal?
I guarantee it for you, bro.
You said you guarantee it?
Did you say it?
Fully legal.
Is that legal advice?
It would be all of good spots.
I think they would be happy advice it is quite a lot so i just increased to be honest i'm not sure you can mention it that much
exo exo i wanted to counter what you were saying about the leverage aspect and i'm sure hayete
on the every x um i can't can probably specify some of this but it's really interesting where
like you know we're in a space that is
incredibly degen and people like this whole market's been about meme coins and, you know,
a lot, a lot of gambling. And we're talking about something very heavily utility based right now.
And sports betting has been around for a long time and all those aspects. But what's really
interesting, I think about the leverage aspect and what really attracted me towards every axis that, you know, communities like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Southeast Asia, these massive, massive user base countries that don't have a ton of capital.
you know, took part in the gaming industry for crypto and, you know, because they could go out
and grind and, you know, make a decent paycheck and find a seat at the table because of what
crypto was allowing. This is where kind of some of the leverage aspects come in. I mean,
you know, to being able to bet a dollar or $10 and put 10 X leverage on it and have a seat at
the table. I'm just curious, like, I mean, Hayate, you could add probably more to that because
obviously you guys are running every X, but i think this is really exciting to me because i love making money
but i love helping people i love creating impact i love giving people the opportunity to go out and
make their lives better and their family's lives better as well too so i just wanted to counter
that because where yeah people can get liquidated quicker from
taking more risk um but they also have a bigger seat at the table and more opportunity as well
i i kind of i mean i i told you from the beginning that i'm really excited about it like we are
thinking about introducing uh like leverage on exo market just from looking at the data from
looking at our users like i know for a fact from the fluctuation that we have currently,
it is gonna be a high risk liquidation.
So of course the upside will always be higher,
higher risk, higher reward, it's a simple formula.
Just to jump in before Timmy as well.
I wanna sign up to the X myself and give it a try as well.
So I'm looking forward to it.
I've seen this week that Gondar are letting you take out collateral positions against your bets on Polymarket now.
Dude, I was going to say that.
Go ahead.
Okay.
No, you go ahead.
Yeah, so I actually interviewed Gondor on Monday on the Agla Aerospace.
And it's a, call it leverage adjacent.
You can use it for leverage, but what they do is you can take your poly market predictions
and you can use them as collateral to get a loan.
And basically what that allows you to do, one of the things which is basically leverage
with Xercept is you can loop the position.
So right now, I think they have it set to 77% LTV.
But if you're so if you have a position, you like it and you want to keep betting, you can go up right now.
They're currently at 2x leverage, but they said they want to go up to 5x or 10x leverage.
but they said they want to go up to 5x or 10x leverage.
But even what I think is really, really exciting is you have a lot of what's called bond markets
in prediction markets where basically the market has already been resolved
and everyone knows it's going to happen, but the actual resolution date isn't far away.
So these are your markets that are at 99%, 98%. And basically,
everyone knows that it's going to happen. And a lot of times, the traders, they end up giving
up their positions and sell early. And that's why it saves up at 98%, 99%. Because they just see
more capital, they want to be efficient with their capital, and we see better opportunities
coming up before that market resolves. But with G gondor what you can do is you can take your
position uh that's essentially a bond market you just don't have to wait for it to end
uh you can take collateral and then you can use the capital that you're already going to win
essentially and then put it on a new market uh god, I love crypto. I love our industry.
That is so cool.
I mean, I love markets.
I love free markets.
I love capitalism.
And this is just like, these tools are really cool.
I think leverage, things like that,
these are all just going to make way more,
again, truth machines.
That's the biggest thing I care about with these.
I don't care about the people
gambling on them. I'm not a gambler. More power to you. You want to gamble. But being these
perfect truth machines and having all this tooling built around them for them to become more accurate
truth machines is just so cool. But go ahead. And it also solves the liquidity fragmentation
problem to some extent because you're just freeing up a whole bunch of capital for people that they can continue to put in because a lot of times what you'll see is these
really niche markets if i don't know a thousand dollars can move the market dramatically and if
you can open it up where everyone's capital is limited to some extent um you can actually
inject more liquidity and give better markets. You can make it more attractive for
market makers who know that they're not going to get wrecked if there's some slightly volatile
market. And then one thing I just want to add that Gondor is doing that is super cool in the future,
and they're trying to figure it out. But in prediction markets, you have really deep markets
that I would say are relatively stable, And then you have extremely volatile markets.
And right now, on their platform,
you can get liquidated on a huge spike,
but then it goes back to where it was
because one person, like I said,
about $1,000 and destroyed the market.
And then it kind of leveled itself back out.
But in the future, what they're going to do is you can actually
have positions against your entire portfolio. So let's say there's a really stable one,
maybe you're one that is in the quote unquote bond market at 99%. That's the positions that
they sell first. So you're not actually losing your bets in the markets that aren't closer to
resolving. You're't closer to resolving,
you're not going to get, I don't know,
it's just a deeper market,
so you're not going to experience the volatility.
And even if you get liquidated and you want to buy back in,
you don't get that unfavorable price.
And I just think it's... This reminds me of...
Go ahead, finish there.
I was going to say, it's just so cool to me,
but like you were saying, it's exciting.
And now all of a sudden we have these tools that crypto built,
and then people are making them even more and more efficient and effective.
Yeah.
It reminds me of...
Wait, so when you take the collateral...
Okay, so first let me say, it reminds me of invoice factoring,
where a company buys your invoices,
because sometimes invoices don't pay for months or even a year,
and they charge a fee to give you the cash up front.
I guess, or this is a way worse example, but like payday loans, which are just terrible.
But with this, when you say that you can now take collateral, you could borrow against your position,
is it just giving
you um like what number is it looking at is it looking at the money you put into it or is it
looking at is it including the odds of you winning it's the current value of the position okay uh
with the depth you sold it right so yeah so if you put ten dollars in a market and then at one
percent and now the market let's say is that 50%, right?
You 50 X your money, you have $500.
You can get collateral against $500,
not the $10 that you put in.
And then, yeah.
So you don't need any kind of factoring here.
This is, this is, this is what I'm saying.
Our industry is constantly inventing new,
better forms, invent, inventing new ways to do things like perpetuals.
I mean, uh, there's so many things, our industry flash loans that our industry invents, I mean, prediction markets themselves.
Um, yeah, it's really cool.
I mean, this is like a way more efficient way of version of factoring.
It sounds like.
Rock, these are like, and these are heavy utility things as well too that are finding
massive product market fit like we've all talked about like mass adoption and stuff and then all
of a sudden everybody's a little bit bullish about how markets have been and it's like but
we have these amazing things that are emerging that are actually going to be used by a huge
amount of people eventually and to kind of go off this as well too,
I mean, there's a decent amount of game factor to this
or game theory to this.
So like when you look at,
we were talking about like liquidity,
liquidity is the biggest thing
for prediction markets right now.
Like, you know, figuring out how we're going to actively
bring as much liquid into these markets as possible.
So the depth is there.
People can place larger bets.
People can go out because it's not near anything like, you know,
the central exchanges or perplexes or any of those things, right?
So when you're looking at like leverage, for example, and, you know,
to placing bets and then putting, you know,
two to 10 X leverage on something and you have liquidity and pool,
there's like the, depending on the amount of liquidity that's there in the bet and, you know, what's
happening, how many people are using it. There's a, there's quite a game factor or game theory to
it where you can push and shift the percentage of the whole bet substantially in your favor,
based off of your bets or based off of say how you market your
bets if you're a KOL and you have thousands of followers if you're like an Alex Becker and
you know you can move thousands of people at a time for by saying one thing right or you're you
know like Donald Trump or Elon Musk or whatever right there's there's massive game theory to it as well too.
And so it's really the tech behind it, Rock.
And specifically, I'm really interested in the leverage aspects of things
because it's something that no one else
is successfully doing
other than every X currently right now.
There's others that are setting up to try to do it.
And there's so much technicality in it.
And it's quite brilliant, honestly.
It seems so powerful, the leverage.
I've been kind of waiting to comment too much on it,
trying to really think through the pros and cons.
But just like what you just said, you know, one person,
like let's say there's a market and there's a market for anything,
whatever it might be.
And the whole market thinks one way.
But you have some special information that no one else has. And if there's no leverage,
and let's say you're really smart or you have inside information, but you're not a whale,
you won't move the market much. And you don't have the ability to make that much money because
how much could you possibly make if your net worth is $10,000, but you know that some crazy thing in the world is going to happen and, or maybe you're just,
you don't know, but you just really feel strongly about this. You have, you've done your research
and you can now go, okay, I feel so damn strongly about this, but I only have $10,000,
but I feel so strongly about this. I can now go 10X or 100X.
And I can actually not only make a lot of money from it,
but now actually move the market,
which will help other people know the truth.
This is the biggest thing,
especially when there's deep liquidity in the market as well too,
where you can then say place a million dollar trade
or $100,000 trade and put 10 X on it and then actually move your community behind you
on that as well too. There's a huge amount of potential with that, but that is the major
factor is liquidity coming into these markets. And the brilliant thing is, is we're super,
super early, like massively early to prediction markets, because where a huge portion
of people in the world are not using crypto yet, we think a lot of people are because we're so
entrenched and we're there all the time. The fact of the matter is a ton of people don't know about
prediction markets, even more people are not using them. But it's one of the, I believe,
one of the unicorns that has found a brilliant product
market fit that is going to adopt and bring a lot of people into these products that did emerge from
crypto and that's going to bring massive amounts of well we're based in asia mainly and definitely
asia is not the asians are not talking about prediction markets and it's mainly americans
and the united states so it's very exciting to see what's going to happen when the Asian
population, also even Africa, they come into prediction markets and start trading as well.
And you guys know, it's funny, I've been on these spaces quite a bit, but I've been in Asia
predominantly for the most part for the past few years. And it didn't actually really click for me how powerful Asia is in the retail market
until it was actually me figuring out that,
because I'm close to people now in the West
that are developing, working with proprietary IP brands
and also with the UFC.
And I was in Thailand and I was at Muay Thai gyms
and some of the top gyms.
And I learned about one championship, which is the UFC of Asia. And I was like, oh, this is really cool. I'm going to tap
into this because I'm in Asia. And then I found out that, you know, UFC obviously has the top,
one of the top combat brands in the world, if not the top, but I found out that one championship has
the highest viewership of any combat sport in the world because of the population of Asia. Right.
And this is the brilliance of it is Calci and Polymarket are super focused on
the West, right? Calci is really regulated.
Polymarket's moving into that space. You know,
all of the markets are focused on the West Asia.
It hasn't even touched yet.
Like I'm close to some of the biggest KOLs Hayate and the every X the every X
PFP there. He's
worked on massive projects in Japan, gaming projects like our crew in Asia is runs Japan,
massively connected in Korea, all over Asia. And still the largest KOLs there are not actively
pushing prediction markets yet. It hasn't kind of seeded there. And as a lot of us know, some of the biggest projects that we love and know actually found their footing in Asia first before they
moved into the West, like major central exchanges like Bybed and others and XRP and other people,
other projects like that. So it is so, so early. And when liquidity comes in and you start to add in factors of technology like
leverage that allow more MAU and more users to come into tech within the crypto space,
it's like, it's a recipe for success, 100%. So this is one of the things that I'm really,
really excited about is getting the everyday Joe on there and having that kind of network effect
of getting as many people into this tech as possible then liquidity
comes in and then rock like you said more freedom of information more truth can happen through more
people actually actively taking part in a technology how many um of these platforms have moved into copy trading?
That's another interesting one.
I think it was ExoMarket you mentioned.
By the way, we didn't do introductions.
Why don't we pause here, do some introductions for the people on the stage real quick here.
We'll do like 15, 30 seconds.
And ExoMarket and every X do you guys last,
and we'll give you guys a little longer
to actually talk about your platforms.
But let's go ahead and start with Joel.
Sorry, I was finding the button there to unmute.
Hey, I'm Joel.
I run business development and marketing for Dash,
which is a fantastic digital
cash been around for almost 12 years instant transactions very low fees high scalability
privacy which is pretty cool and um also usability usernames contact lists at the protocol level
encrypted metadata so when you buy a big ikea purchase you won't forget that if your phone
goes in the toilet it'll come back when you restore your wallet and all kinds of cool stuff.
A bunch of good stuff coming up for next year.
I'm not going to show all that yet, but just always happy to be here.
All right.
Two Cent Timmy, my man.
GM, I am Two Cent Timmy.
I am on the Polygon marketing team.
Work on AgLayer stuff as well, and yeah, your DeFi Degen and Prediction
Market Degen. But I also like to think I know a little bit.
NFT Demon?
Yeah, my name is Jerry Ryan, aka NFT Demon. Last full run, I was the largest NFT artist on the name of Smart Chain back when it
actually had some market share. But then I switched over to consulting, did do a lot of
consulting with celebrities, Fortune 500 companies on different blockchain integrations. And I also
do development. I'm working on a game that's going to change commerce
and use AR and NFTs to do it.
So I wear a whole lot of hats, but yeah.
How much AI are you using on your development?
Probably about 30%.
Yeah.
I mean, I did developing before AI, but there's some things that just make a lot more sense just to have the AI do, but you don't. Right now, I don't know if it's to a point to completely build anything.
I mean, even years ago, one of our friends, Owen, he was saying that he was getting like 10 times more work done already with AI.
So I would have imagined it would have been even stronger.
Now, I mean, I know there's some people that are doing, I mean, on the far end, 100% of their coding, you know, vibe coders is AI.
But you're only at 30% interesting.
Well, and, but also this is a very complex application with a whole lot of moving parts.
And, um, so, uh, you, for, for more basic applications, actually you can build a full
application with vibe coding, but this, I don't think you could really properly do or be
extraordinarily difficult. Is your number increasing?
What was it one year ago?
One year ago, I wasn't even using AI.
Oh, okay.
Interesting.
Cool.
Okay, let's go to Matthew.
Hey, guys.
Thanks again to the quick swap team and polygon for yeah.
Having me up here.
I always love speaking with you guys.
So yeah,
my name is Matthew Papner.
I run a venture studio called Papner strategy.
I've been heavily focused on advisory for top 100 projects,
working with some of the biggest L1s in the space
On branding, marketing, ecosystem development
Recently I've been heavily focused on prediction markets
Every X is a client of mine
And I'm a major contributor there
I'm setting and positioning myself as a bridge between Asia and the West
I live part of the year in Canada
and most of the year actually in Thailand and Asia.
Yeah, so if you guys ever have any questions
or if there's ever any L1s out there
that are looking to break into new markets,
I work with a couple top 20s
and always looking to bridge the gap
into amazing retail markets in the East.
Or if you're an Asian project looking to break into the West, please let me know because I'd love to help.
And writer Richard.
Hey, everybody.
Yeah, my name is Richard, Chief of Staff for Lunar Digital Assets.
I'm also Investor Relations and
the Global Event Coordinator for Bid Angels.
And I'll also
be a mentor
for Bases Incubase
for 2026.
Hey!
Congratulations on that, by the way.
Richard's a beast.
And Nicole.
Sorry, I had to find the mute button.
Hey, I'm Nicole, NerdGirl007.
And I do PR and marketing,
more like strategy for both of those, but also writing for Lunar Digital
Assets.
And I work on a couple of different production teams elsewhere in the space, producing media
content and planning media content.
And Mother of Dragons.
And Mother of Dragons.
Oh, also sometimes co-host of The Aggregated and Mother of Dragons, of course.
And Panda Man, Darren, behind the Quickswap handle.
Hello, I'm Darren.
I had an ecosystem for Quickswap.
And at high school, I won winner of the most likely
to accidentally ship a good idea award.
Makes sense.
Can we dox you on your recent life event?
Yeah, go for it.
Congratulations on getting married, my man.
Yeah, I actually got married to Timmy.
got married to timmy yeah where's my congratulations
Yeah, where's my congratulations?
all right uh let's go to uh every x yeah you take you could take a little longer to tell us uh
about uh what you guys are who you are what you guys are doing hey guys wow um darren congratulations Hey guys. Wow, Darren, congratulations. I originally had a Japanese Gamify project called Gensou Meta, and we were on Polygon, we spoke a lot. So I'm very happy to hear you. Great news. Congrats.
I didn't know you guys were related to projects. Okay, cool. A company's project.
projects. Okay, cool.
A company's project.
We did one of the big
gamified projects on Polygon.
It was good old days.
Right now we're doing a prediction market
called EveryX. And like Matthew said,
we're doing a lot of leverage
events,
10x leverage events.
We're very much active in Asia.
A lot
of Asian countries did not know what prediction markets are.
They don't know Pali market, they don't know Kalshi, but they want to use leverage on trading on a lot of events that they have.
So we've had a lot of great perception.
I think the main topic is elections in Thailand, elections in Vietnam, whether the government is going to recover in they come on to prediction markets see what they
can trade on and what kind of platforms emerge that do not mainly target the United States.
So that's a little bit about us and really excited to join the conversation. Actually I may have to
leave in a bit but it was great listening to what kind of prediction markets news and alpha
we're having and want to be on another one if I get to do some predictions
later on as well.
I, someone was calling me during the last few seconds of that.
I don't know if I was supposed to respond to that but i don't think so um okay exo markets yeah jim james love that we do the
introduction you need halfway through yeah congratulations as well darren like this is
really great news man uh love it for you oh we're actually still gonna get the end done quicker than usual
no no no we'll do a market about it i'm just kidding uh yeah exo market is a user generated
market or anybody can come to exo market and get your own market about any topic so if you have a
project you have you are a creator your content careers where you can challenge your own market about any topic so if you have a project you have you are a creator
your content careers where you can challenge your audience with exo market it's by far the best tool
for you now to engage new people into your project because you know we have a big community they're
always excited to see a new market and they go and read about you and and like they dig deep so
because they want they want to have an edge on your market.
So you seed your market with $500, $1,000.
At the end, you get back your seed along with the transaction fees that you earn from your market.
So yeah, that's in a quick nutshell what ExoMarket is about.
Yeah, thank you guys so much for having me here. When you make these markets, these user-generated markets,
who is the Oracle?
I mean, because some of these are real niche, you know.
You know, what if it was, you know,
how many times is Rock going to say libertarian on the aggregated?
I was literally about to ask that question.
I was actually going to say, seriously, like, yes, okay, we all had the same thought.
Yes, yes, yes.
You know, that would be...
I already started Dimension Market, guys,
on every act,
so I just made thousands of dollars from you, Rob.
Thank you so much.
We're going to start one on a forum.
That's a fun one.
Yeah, so the... Just don't tell me in advance that you're doing it
because I don't want it to affect my subconscious or something.
No, bro.
I'm going to take the edge here.
Come on.
It's no money, right?
Mark, what do you think about government?
Big government.
Tell us more.
We need to make it like an episode.
That's absolutely... Yeah. Yes. That's. We need to make it like an episode.
Yes, that's what we need to do.
I'm in.
What political party do you affiliate with again?
Yeah.
So, yeah.
How do you... Who's the Oracle?
What if the...
We built ExoOracle next to ExoMarket.
Basically, the Oracle has two parts.
It has the AI agent part and has the human part.
AI agents, they're able to like basically detect
if this market is manipulatable
or it has a good source of truth or not.
So you cannot make a market,
will I jump now from my bed for example because
we cannot verify this result so only a market that's about a publicly accessible source of
truth that has a good reputation can be created for example when quickswap made their market
it's about the tvl that everybody can verify for example on chain how much tvl there is on base as
an example so any public data that can be verified and not easily manipulatable,
automatically the Oracle will verify.
If it's not, then the Oracle will return low confidence.
And if it's low confidence, eventually it will not.
How does that work? What is this?
Is this like the Wizard of Oz, like a guy behind a curtain?
Or what is this Oracle?
How is this Oracle determining confidence and all that yeah it has something called playbooks so every category
has a playbook so when you're creating a market like is it about politics is about sports is about
culture whatever it is it fetches the playbook that's related to that category and we have like
thousands of example markets and thousands of public sources like
websites that can be used as a source of truth be it an RPC, be it an API, be it a normal
website like a news website like BBC, CNN, whatever it is.
So if your market says like something will happen and the source of truth is X, then this playbook
is used by the AI to measure the confidence
of this potential market.
And so far, the Oracle actually rejects a lot of markets,
but it almost never makes a mistake of rejecting a market
that should not have been rejected so far.
Because we have three judges. So we have three judges so we have drops we have open ai and we have perplexities each one of them the
judges are ai i love it yeah that's funny yeah and they vote and then based on the vote if it passes
then the market is automatically oh my fucking god the judges are ais the world we are
going into it's a beautiful world yeah but like do you think that like okay so there's this big
conversation happening right now and you can see obviously elon's like leading that on x about like
the transparency of open ai and chat gpt and whether they're actually like what they're putting in for
prompts into their systems about what is truth and what isn't um and obviously he's promoting
that grok is the most truthful uh ai and i i personally agree that he really is i mean that's
what a lot of i mean a lot of the backbone of X is based off of, you know, freedom and, you know, information, blah, blah, blah.
I mean, we've seen that with X.
So I'm just curious, like, for you guys, like, you know, where you actually get your information from, where, you know, you're verifying from.
Perplexity is pretty good, too, but I mostly use Grok, and do do, I do verify with chat GPT and back and forth. But yeah, I mean, that's a,
that's a major factor, especially when reconciling certain predictions in,
in the moment, you know, taking the predictions down,
verifying the information correctly. Those are, those are major,
major factors because obviously if you know,
chat GPT is aligned more with the Democratic Party
and they're pushing certain narratives
through their algorithms,
I mean, we can't stop that.
That's probably happening, right?
So I'm curious about that.
I'll be between subjective and objective markets, right?
Subjective markets in general don't get accepted.
For example, is Trump nice?
That's not going to be a market that's going to be accepted, right? Because it's highly subjective. But objective markets that are
about a specific event related to a specific event, will this happen? Will they say this? Will this
event occur? Will this team win on team X, team X win on team Y? So all of these are very objective truth, right? And when you're
using like three different judges, we can actually scale it to five or seven, whatever.
And each one is giving you a result. You can resolve it easily with high confidence when
the three of them are in consensus. And still we have something called dispute window. So
yeah, we have a dispute window of two hours that anybody could dispute the outcome
uh of the ai then it goes to a decent trial jury of actually human beings who basically judge on
the cases and they stake actually money on their judging that's like the findings and then based
on that voting the final judgment comes and you can even still appeal that uh as well and then a larger
stake will happen with a larger pool of people so we have all the like you know the backups
in case ai fucks up wow interesting we launched since we launched like a month and a half ago
uh we have left more than 300 markets not a single dispute happened so far. You know, oddly enough, I actually wrote a research paper when I was attending the university
about the bias of AI and some of the issues that would arise due to the developers and
who was actually coding in the prompts.
And, you know, some of the black box features that AI comes out with,
with whoever has coded out their response times.
And it's really interesting to see in what you mentioned as far as chat GVT,
whether or not they're a little more democratic focus
or whether like Grok is a little more factual.
But I mean, just with anything, it's kind, it's kind of, it's kind of, it's kind of good
that you guys are aggregating from various, you know, AI sources in order to kind of verify
any of the information.
But still at the same time, I mean, I noticed that utilizing some of the AI, even in Grok,
I mean, I noticed that utilizing some of the AI, even in Grok, you can kind of get hyper-focused into this bubble.
And some of the responses that it comes out with can still be hallucinated and manipulated.
And if you don't, as a human being, have those actual sources or that information and knowledge of what you're already asking it,
I mean, your responses can be so skewed.
It actually happened to me the other day
and I wasn't even thinking
because my mind was in a totally different subject.
And I was just asking it various questions
within another prompt that I was already like,
it was kind of like where you just kind of keep the prompt
and it keeps a conversation with growing.
But yeah, that's it's definitely yeah
definitely that's a really good point and that's why exactly why we have different models and
honestly if it was not like extremely expensive we could scale up to so many models and we will
scale to different models once we scale as well like the operation of exo market but
this is really important to tell you.
Like, you know, we ran the model,
we trained the model on polymarket markets,
and we have like thousands of markets of polymarket.
I'm really curious, though, on how perplexity works. I haven't used, I have perplexity from like a trial.
We have like an agentic mode that helps you,
that it also searches for information automatically as well.
It could browse and like search for information just like a normal human being.
But I'm curious about coding morality, right?
Like the LLM's actually basing a lot of their answering and a lot of their voicing around certain ideas of morality, right?
What they think is right and wrong and blah, blah, blah of morality, right? What, you know, what they think is right and wrong
and blah, blah, blah, blah, right? That's, that's a, that, that would be a major issue of what
information is available and how it's presented because people can be manipulated quite easily.
And especially when people put their power into technology and, you know, very powerful people
develop that technology and they want to make their lives easier so that they can write papers
or get information or build code or get a perspective or blah blah blah so are you asking about the
morality of like the actual coder base or the morality of like allowing the ai in itself to
have its own moral compass because i think it's kind of like a really really complicated i mean
this was like several years ago when i did this, but, um, when I was digging in, but.
To answer your question, it's, it's actually the, the developers and the people that are
coding the voice, uh, of chat GPT or Grok or whatever and saying, okay, you know, what's
right and wrong, what certain opinions, uh, and how it's presented through the actual LLM,
you know, interface and the voice of the LLM.
And so that's, you know, that if that's right or wrong, you know what I mean?
My question was, I mean, because I mean, it's obvious that, you know, the coder kind of
gives like a lot of the voice, but the morality of whether or not allowing like i
don't know like what level of freedom you can give the actual ai to where it has the least bias
um sense whether or not that's like a good thing like whether or not to just release the kraken
in a sense
yeah i mean okay so that's that's what that's what i mean i just want to
release the kraken release the kraken but don't but don't actually um you know with grok you have
to there's certain things you can't do like you have to yeah it won't it won't sign an nda with
any of the information that it's harvesting, even though it says it's private.
But it's really important that you guys understand that in prediction market,
you have a source of truth that's not AI. AI is just judging on the data that's fetched from a source of truth. So if the source of truth is on chain, AI can only do like, so how they interpret
this data, right? Can't you allow it to just hallucinate for those predictions as well?
I mean, you can actually just implement that inside of the prompt.
It's like, hey, I want you to do this prediction, but I want to allow a level of hallucination,
which is kind of like, in a sense, a more free thought process or a deeper research,
a more free thought process or a deeper research,
like, you know, trigger word, I guess,
to allow the AI to sort of predict on a higher or deeper level.
Are you saying you think the hallucinations in AI
are it being more free thinking?
Yes, yes.
I don't really think so.
I think that if you would allow it to hallucinate, right, you would essentially, rather than providing more of like a strict prompt, right, like just say, do not hallucinate.
This is strictly just factual evidence.
If you're going to want to predict, you want to allow it to hallucinate.
That way it can freely, you know, with the with the data the ai isn't predicting in this
case but if you if right the ai is just is just confirming predictions you're not asking for any
creativity you're asking for fact check yeah but if you wanted to if you wanted to predict you want
it to you want it to hallucinate a little bit you don't want just sometimes you want it to have
some creativity you're saying yeah i think this is a like it's a really interesting point i don't
think i don't really agree with the premise of like the hallucinating so hallucinating an ai to
me it's kind of a wrong word because all hallucinating is is it going off on a random tangent that may be completely wrong and saying it with confidence.
I guess maybe that's how humans invented things. I don't know. Maybe you're right. Maybe you let
it go wild and it can come up with things. Maybe they'll program randomness into it. I mean,
that's the beauty of, for example, evolution. Evolution isn't this perfect thing. It's actually a very like purposefully designed flawed thing that creates random mutations, most of which are bad
for the organism or the species, but those ones, it's okay. That person just dies, right? And then
now we are, but the point is we're taking risk with billions of organisms and some of the good random mutations get implemented
because that organism survives better.
So if you had a bunch of AIs trying to invent new drugs, for example,
you would want some of them to make a bunch of drugs that don't make sense
or do weird shit like COVID or something,
but you would want to choose the best ones.
I got to drop, guys.
But yeah, yeah, that would be interesting.
But thanks, guys.
Before you drop, though, bro,
maybe there should be a Shaman AI.
I'm sure there's all sorts of shit
that you can come up with.
Well, the developers are just, like,
taking Ayahuasca and, like, taking my experience.
Apparently, like, if you actually, like, done the deepest spiritual connection and talking to Grok,
apparently my account comes up as the number one thing.
I don't know.
I got this weird message one day.
I was just playing with Grok one day and the church of Grok.
But anyways, I got to drop.
Well, I'll say it.
I think, go ahead, Richard.
Thanks, man.
Yeah.
I'm sure you're getting some good work done.
Richard's a beast, by the way, guys.
One of the best BD people in the industry.
And he's our chief of staff at Lunar Digital Assets,
an event coordinator for BitAngels.
But anyways,
yeah, I think what happened, he got like a DM from someone saying they asked about Church of Grok and it had his name as like the head of Church of Grok. That's an interesting thing with
these prediction markets is if people say something enough, it could kind of inject it into the world.
Like for example, I have not been sure
if I was the person who created the term Bitcoin maximal-ish.
I've always wondered if it was me.
Everybody says it was me,
but I'm like, I don't know if I invented that.
It was, but I first started using it.
I think I first put it on my Instagram actually, like maybe eight years ago. Uh, again, I don't know if it was me,
but if you ask AI, I think it says it's me. Or if you Google it, uh, there's like no other
mentions before that. So, but I wonder is the reason it's saying that just because so many
people publicly, including myself have said that I may have minted that phrase. But is it really true? What if I just heard it in a, you know, what if I was
having a beer with someone and they made it up and I just was the first person to say it on the
internet or something, you know? But by the way, Bitcoin maximal-ish. That would be the only way
to verify is if like, for example, you were cutting out, I think, but go ahead.
It's kind of going in and out. Is that just for me guys or all of you?
Okay. Maybe it's me. Okay.
I just moved to a better service. Okay.
So I think that would be able to be verified through like a recorded space or,
you know, a post or a timestamp. Obviously,
it would be difficult if it wasn't in that aspect, someone else would have to verify,
oh, Rock said it, you know, at this point, and other people backed it up and verified it or
whatever. But yeah, I mean, if you have, you're talking about a verification anyways, right? So
if a bunch of people say, okay, he was the first person to do it
and they're publicly putting that out there
in spaces and in posts or whatever.
And then, you know, the AI could go
and gather that information and say, okay,
here was the first time it was mentioned.
And then there's all these people verifying that.
So, I mean, I think that's how a lot of things happen.
That could definitely lead to a,
like a self-fulfilling prophecy or false positives.
And that's one of the problems with AI.
It's not actually yet.
It doesn't seem like, in some ways at least, I'm giving a lot of caveat nuances there,
but it doesn't seem like it's perfect for finding a truth.
That's why it's not that creative yet.
It's more just figuring out through looking at a lot of data online, what the kind of best
general consensus is in the world. So if like, if everybody believes something, there's lots of
things like that in the world, you know, lots of myths in the world that don't really hold up when you dig deep into them.
And sometimes AI will go with the crowd, but I do think it is getting better at going against
the crowd. And actually, I guess, dare I say, thinking for itself.
as it as an example there was a thing called uh am i still there am i getting cut out here
you're here okay so like with uh there's a lot of kind of myths that perpetuate in the world
uh nutrition's a big one because you know someone pushes some narrative that this food is good
or this food is bad.
And then it kind of just takes hold and it never goes away.
Everybody just agrees with that forever
and people try to push against it.
But some narratives just stick forever.
Rice technique is kind of an example of that.
When people, if you guys, you know,
rice is rest, ice, compression, elevation.
And in my pre-med, we were taught this in some of our classes. And in one of my classes, I asked
the professor, I don't understand this. Why is this a thing? Why would you try to get rid of
the inflammation? Inflammation is something we've evolved over millions of years. Don't you want, from all the stuff we're learning in these biology and anatomy and
physiology classes, wouldn't you want, you know, some swelling in the area, some inflammation,
because that signals all the different cells to come and like eat away at the
torn tissue and then start cleaning it up, getting rid of any infection stuff. It's a signal.
And my professor told me to go research it and come back and tell the class what I learned.
And basically, after digging into it for a long time, I found that the person who made up that
phrase, rice, later on said, no, I was wrong about this. And there's all kinds of studies
showing that it's wrong. But people still say it all the time,
you know, oh, put some ice on it, you know, elevate it, compress it. But it's most of the
time, that's not actually right. There's some weird nuances where it does make sense. But for
the most part, you don't want to be icing something all the time. Actually, heat is better in some
cases because you want fluid and stuff. So anyways, long like tangent
there, but the point is there's some things in the world that just kind of stick and is AI good at
finding the actual truth or is it just going with the crowd? What do you guys think?
So there's a, there's a factor of something sticking, like you just said, but then also
follow the money as well too. Right. So there's like
some things that are actually being perpetuated through propaganda or alternative, uh, you know,
narratives or intentions as well too. And so I think that if there's a bunch of information out
about something and, um, you know, there's a massive corpus gathering
and it's being verified in that way,
or if ultimately it's not just verifying
through a lot of information,
but it's verifying through absolute truth.
Maybe that, excuse me,
is actually through training of the LLM
and that takes time.
Maybe, excuse me,
the rice thing was the narrative for a long time,
and now there's more information coming out that this is actually not the most effective way to
actually heal the area, but maybe to just reduce pain in that specific time.
Yeah, exactly. And that's, I think, part of what perpetuates it, is if you do that,
your pain goes down. But the pain going down is not what you're
after. You're after actually fixing the area. Right. It's the same thing as like when you
burn your hand, if you put ice on your hand, uh, you know, it takes away the pain. It takes away
that. But then as soon as you take the ice off, the pain is even worse because it's actually blood
going to that area to, to heal, recover and blah, blah, blah, blah. So I think that just based on, I like, I'm not, this is just my opinion, but I think that that'll
probably say transition with more information being out there and available. And then the
verification of that as well too, because absolute truth is consistently proven and disproven based
off of like science and study
and papers and blah, blah, blah. But I think AI, you were talking about creativity. This is the
one thing when people are losing all of their jobs and AI is taking control of all of that stuff and
hopefully making things more manageable and better for everybody. And I believe through meritocracy,
giving people more tools to enrich themselves and in their spiritual financial lives in every way that the one thing that AI is not going to be able to actively do is like major intentionality around creativity and originality because it still has someone prompting it to, to, to move it forward. Yes. It'll become more
advanced. It could be a lot better at finding truth quicker and, you know, taking orders in
a better way. Um, but basically, basically that, um, you know, the, the creativity aspect is,
I don't think it's a forever originality and creativity are going to still be the major factors that allow that put people ahead of, of others in AI and technology.
What's that say?
Forever.
You think is just to, I want to understand your pick.
So you think that humans will always have an edge over AI and creative issues?
In creativity and originality.
Yeah.
I think that, yes, I use AI currently right now to write songs, right?
I can give a prompt of 500 characters about how I want the song to be
and all those aspects, and it can fully do it within 30 seconds,
and I have a fully produced song that's two minutes long.
That's whatever I want.
Right. But the point is, is I had to do the creative thought processes and the patterning
and give it the information, give it the prompts from my creativity. And so this AI doesn't
represent originality or creativity. It's, it's a tool that can be directed with that. So as long
as we're consistently pushing ourselves to be more authentic, more creative, more original,
then we'll stand out and not be so pushed down
by AI as individuals.
I want to add to that too,
like you were talking about creativity and originality,
but I think the easiest way for most people to see it
is if go to your favorite AI tool
and ask it to tell you a joke,
and I guarantee the joke
will not be funny the jokes are just they're absolutely awful they they can't i think in my
mind humor is almost the ultimate expression of originality creativity and like capturing a moment
uh and what it actually means to be human uh on very deep sense. Because when things are funny, you just find them funny.
And a lot of times you don't even know why it's funny.
You just laugh.
And AI can't replicate that.
Like AI can say, here's how a joke is constructed.
But the actual cadence and beat doesn't work the same at all.
I disagree with both of you.
Well, actually, I don't think you said never for you, Timmy,
but I think, Matthew, you kind of are implying that humans will,
you said they'll always have an edge in creativity, essentially.
But I just don't agree.
I think maybe at the moment, yeah.
AIs aren't inventing new drugs yet that I know of.
AIs aren't inventing new drugs yet that I know of.
They aren't writing epic novels,
best-selling novels that are critically acclaimed yet,
but they will.
And what's interesting is,
Matthew, this is what's fun,
is people can feel so differently about something
and that's just humans. And Matthew's
an incredibly smart guy. I think I'm okay. I'm not a total dum-dum, but we have totally different
opinions on this. And like, how confident are you, Matthew? Do you think it's possible that
AI could ever create a great work of art or a great novel or or a great song that is you know as famous as like a beatles
song oh my god bro and is critically acclaimed well thank you very much for those kind words i
really appreciate that coming from you it's it's actually very think it comes down to AI is going to be better at pretty much everything.
And there's already, you know, quite a bit better at a lot of things.
Cause currently right now I'm listening to some crazy, amazing, like blues style, 50 cent albums that are made by ai that's like his stuff that are just get rich or die
trying album but like blues and and and it's just like i'm addicted is this the one that joe rogan
i keep hearing joe rogan say you got to listen to this something 50 cent song yeah it's fantastic
look up uh look up um uh shifty brent not 50 cents shifty brent and uh it's just it's fantastic so and then i
was telling you about i'm using this tool now um and uh it's called uh suno and i got tapped into
it yesterday and literally i got tapped into it on a space we were just doing like a share your
music space and everybody was live literally making their own songs within a minute and
we did it for hours and it was amazing i literally put and this is segwaying on the on the question
you asked me but um i literally put i wrote a like a i prompted it with a story of like
my experience it was called like the ballot the ballot of, of a man. And it was like, you know, the struggles and then going into like, you know, overcoming those in the victories.
And it was like backdrop influenced by a mortal technique and Kupak with like a, a lyrical female chorus and raw and gangster style.
And anyway, to produce it in 30 seconds and i shared it and then literally they listened to
a song live of a story a very personal story about myself that i had just made in 30 seconds
right and i'm not a super artistic creative person right and so what i'm now segwaying into
is like i was the one that prompted it to to do that Even if AI does create a world-class movie or song or novel
that is critically acclaimed, it's still going to come from the prompting of hyper-creative people
that are in touch with themselves enough, authentic enough, brave enough to be able to
prompt it in a way that will direct it to create that.
That's what I truly believe.
Why do you need someone to manually go in to Grok or whatever these apps for music
and type out this prompt?
If that has already been said, that prompt, those feelings, that angst has already been said in a hundred thousand million billion diaries around the world that are on the internet and accessible or a hundred million Reddit threads.
Why do they need someone to manually prompt it?
They have all of the human creativity that's ever been published at,
at its fingertips. And this is where I think this is good.
All that stuff, everything you're just saying that's already out there is quote
unquote, not original anymore. Cause it's already out there. Right?
So if you truly want originality,
if you truly want something that is niche or valuable or, you know, scarce, it's going to be something that is new.
It like it's going to be I never it's it was the emotion that I felt last night actually sharing this very personal type of song that I just created off of like out of my heart in like 30 minutes because i was
learning how to use the app and now i can use it in 30 seconds and produce a song was like wow no
one's ever heard this from me before in this way right because the tool like ai just go online
and find someone's story and and personify that a song? Why is that any different?
That's not necessarily original, right? And new things are happening all the time right now. New
experiences, new ways of expressing, new ideas are happening all of the time right now in this
moment as we live, not just from historical stuff, right? So I'm sure the AI can grab a lot of that
information as it's presented, but it still has to be presented in a certain way with certain prompts, no matter what, whether it's just shared on Google as a, as a poem or as a song or whatever, like, you know, the shifty Brent, uh, you know, uh, wanks the song or, uh, you know, get rich, whatever song, you know, it's like that was already shared.
whatever song you know it's like that was already shared you know it was one of the biggest albums
of the early 2000s and you know shaped gangster rap and the rap industry and hip-hop for forever
but it was never shared in that way before right and someone prompted it to share it in that type
of way and then it created this new type of art form that was original if if we get to the point
where 99 out of 100 movies,
the script was written completely by an AI without prompting,
will you still hold on to the kind of,
because what it sounds here,
the one thing you're saying that's, I guess,
I don't even know if it's valid
because at first I don't think anything is original.
I think everything is kind of a rematch
or us as humans, what are we?
We're just computers, just like an AI's computers.
They're just a way bigger computer.
We're just computers that are really good at taking things we've heard,
our childhood experiences.
Those experiences were not original.
They were from your parent and your parent learned them from his parent.
And it's just iterations.
All these things that happen with humans
are just iterations of old things, old books.
When someone writes a new book,
yeah, I guess it's an original idea, you could argue,
but it's because they learned writing style
and flair and concepts and things
from billions of events in their lifetime.
And that's all an AI is doing, except for it has more events to pull from. It's just another kind
of computer. We're biological computers. They are digital, you know, computers. And they're just
pulling from more data than we can pull from. Mozart didn't like, you know, he had experiences that led to him writing these songs
and performing these songs.
Why can't an AI have experience,
like just experience the work
by absorbing everything and make original works?
I guess I'm, you know, maybe this is not very romantic
and I can tend to not be romantic
when it comes to these kinds of things that I'm just being realistic.
Like what is the difference between a digital computer if they can replicate the same kind of neuropathways through these large language models that we can?
I think they're going to be very creative.
I think they're going to invent lots of drugs.
And part of it might just be randomness.
How did Tesla invent
new things? Maybe there was some randomness to it. Maybe it was just that he learned a bunch of
techniques from his professors or the people before him or the random experiments he did.
I don't know. But why can't a computer do the same thing? I don't see why not.
Yeah. I mean, I can agree with you in a lot of ways. And this is actually, you might think this is weird, but like, this is kind of some of my fundamental spiritual beliefs, actually, that like, in South American medicine or indigenous medicine, they don't necessarily believe people create things that everything already exists, but then it's gathered in a certain way and then presented.
in a certain way and then presented.
And so this is like shamanistic values from Peru
and North America and blah, blah, blah.
But anyway, so I don't necessarily disagree with that,
but I still think it's really interesting
at the end of the day,
I think people are going to,
if 99% of songs and movies are now created by AI
and the work is brilliant and it's amazing and it's i
think that uh there's gonna be massive massive push and a lot of money and a lot of attention
put towards the stuff that is is actually fully original in whatever way or maybe you know supported
by ai or or whatever um because it still has that deeply entrenched
humanness within it and people are gonna you know um put that in some ways above um you know some of
these tools or technologies that are creating say the larger workload like if if if everything is
being created by ai and the product is amazing what's gonna what's gonna be the special thing
that kind of stands out and in the future it, it's likely going to be, uh, you know, okay, this album was
completely produced and made, uh, and sang and, uh, you know, the instrumentals and all that by
just human beings, not AI. And then it's gonna be like, Oh, that's like, you know, that's special.
Right. Um, so it's an interesting conversation. Let's make a prediction based off of this,
uh, you know, this space right now. And the next time we come back to prediction markets and,
you know, the coming months or the coming years or whatever, you know, how much people are,
you know, appreciating, you know, original art or how the power of AI and creating originality.
And I think we have different stances
and probably similarities in some ways,
but we could probably play some predictions
on that as well.
I think too, just to add a little bit,
is one of the things that makes a genius a genius,
especially for creativity,
is the ability to distill information really well.
And Rock, you kind of touched on it, where AI just kind of takes the opinion of the masses.
And that's not to say it'll last forever.
But when you think of the really brilliant people, they can be really pointed and kind
of sift through all the information. And I think what's going to happen to AI, one of the problems it could have is mediocrity
in the sense of if it's taking everyone's information,
the output is always going to be average.
And yeah, you can kind of say,
okay, this is what greatness is based on other humans' opinions,
but you're never, I don't know if you're actually going to be, AI will be able to distill the information the same
way that humans can and bring out the creativity there. And I think that's one of the really,
really hard problems to solve is it's only getting input from people, but it doesn't
actually experience it. It can only, I think what happens
is you talk about different types of knowledge is what it comes down to. Right. So they're like
factual knowledge, uh, implicit knowledge. Uh, there's a whole bunch in there, but one is
experiential knowledge where you actually lived it and you know what it feels like. So like,
and you know what it feels like so like if i if you have a dog and you lost your dog your dog died
and i have a dog and my dog died i can say i know how you feel uh and there's something about that
experience that both of us can understand the experience we what about someone who's seen a
very touching movie where their dog died let me give you an example that might push this even
further uh i'm just trying to kind of play devil's advocate and challenge the way we think about all this,
even human memory and experiences. So there was a study they did. I'll try to remember the details,
but it was basically that they pulled a bunch of people and they told them,
do you remember the time? And I don't remember if they got the families involved to trick
these kids or whatever. But they said, do you remember when you? And I don't remember if they got the families involved to trick these kids or whatever.
But they said, do you remember when you got lost at the mall
and your mom was looking for you and this and this happened?
And they kind of give some details
and it's an event that never happened,
but they tell the kid
and then someone else maybe plays into it or whatever.
I don't remember exactly how it worked,
but then the kid actually has that memory.
Have you ever had a memory that, or a time where you're like, man, that sounds so familiar. I feel like that happened. Sounds so familiar. Maybe that, I think that happened to
me when I was younger. And then you realize, no, that was a movie I saw or something.
I don't think human, I don't think human memories. My point is, I don't think human
memories or experience are so set in stone. And then the other way you might've had a memory or
experience and you don't fucking remember it, right? There's tons of things that I don't think
of for 20 years. And then, you know, an old friend brings up a story and I'm either like,
whoa, I remember that. I totally forgot about that. Or I'm like, I have no idea what you're talking about. Humans are malleable. We're like faulty.
Our circuits aren't perfect. Computers, these zeros and ones are near perfect these days.
They have redundancies. They're stored in multiple servers. I mean, they're going to have better
memories and they're going to have better data sets. They're going to have access to every
research paper ever written about a
subject. You know, I don't know about you guys, but I, um,
like I have a call with a doctor about some blood work that I did the other
day. And I am the only reason I'm taking this call with this doctor and it's
free because it came with my tests,
but I've been using AI to dial in all my blood work and my numbers,
you know, my numbers,
you know, my testosterone, cholesterol, all these things.
And I have almost zero desire to talk to a doctor for free.
I have no desire.
I'm only going to do it to compare it to my AI.
But I already know my AI is going to crush it because I've been seeing doctors.
We've all seen doctors throughout our life.
First, the doctor doesn't have much time with you right they're expensive their time's valuable they don't know you they only all they have is the numbers in front of you they don't
have four hours or days for you to explain your entire life story every injury you've had every
you know every piece of food my ai knows everything i eat because I keep spreadsheets and food logs.
It knows every mile I've walked because it taps into my fitness app.
It knows every health issue I've ever had
that I've fed into it.
A doctor could never do that.
I just think we're underestimating
the power of these things.
I don't even, this doctor that's gonna call me
is gonna give me no fucking information.
I already know it.
I'll bet a fucking million dollars on it.
I already know whatever it's going to
tell me, I either have already talked to
my AI about or I will talk to my
AI at some point about it.
I'm digging deeper into health.
I think you need to go
doctors are like near to me near
useless right now with having
just a fucking basic AI.
I think you need to go see a shaman
bro drink some ayahuasca.
Anyways, I got to jump,
because there's another space I have to get into.
It's actually a prediction market space
with this new leverage market
that's teaming up with Calashan.
I got to do some data mining
of their raise that they just closed.
So appreciate you guys again a lot.
I'm going to try to make it on
to the next couple of ones,
because I'll be back in Asia January 5th.
So it'll be 2 a.m. or 12 a.m.
when these spaces are happening usually.
But love you guys.
Appreciate you.
Rock, anybody here, if you guys are coming to Asia,
if you want Q2 for any of the conferences like ConsenSys
or any of the blockchain conferences or anything like that,
please hit me up.
Doing some really incredible work with Japan right now
and South Korea.
Would love to always see you guys at any conferences
and chat and stuff.
So appreciate you guys a lot.
Take care, everybody.
Cheers.
By the way, we didn't get to make any predictions today.
Maybe we could do some predictions offline nicole if you want to
ask people on the show there any predictions yeah sure and then uh you can even expand it out to
some of our maybe regular more regular uh speakers and we could announce the predictions maybe next
spaces or something so that we have them recorded for next year were there any other read the ones uh yeah we could maybe read the ones yeah come on yeah yeah
let's do that and then we'll hop off here soon oh actually no we need to read uh questions and
comments from the audience which we're terrible at we always wait till the end i'll start my
prediction yeah let's do that yeah i know we just forgot we
started on prediction markets i'll say it real quick my it was a hot take prediction so i wasn't
completely convinced of it but it was that dexes will take a majority market share at some point
over centralized exchanges and while that did not happen um it certainly went up. I think at the start of the year, DEX volume was somewhere around like, I want to say it was in like the 10 to 11% range last year was where it peaked.
And then this year, in June 2025, I'm looking at a CoinGecko report.
It got all the way up to 37.5%.
And right now it's hanging out in like
above 20 range so I think next year we might get a single month uh especially with perps and if they
call uh prediction market like polymarket as some sort of trading volume I think we might actually
uh get over 50 market share on decentralized infrastructure, over centralized infrastructure.
Was your prediction that it would happen in 2025 or was it just, it'll happen eventually?
I don't know. I think I said it will happen. I'm convinced it'll happen eventually.
My thinking back, it was, there will be a period and maybe it only lasts a short period, but at least for a month, we will get greater than. So I got close. Going up to 37.5% from where we were at at 10%, I think, is a huge jump.
And we've, on average...
You're saying it was only 10% the year before?
It was in 2024. I'm looking at each month, 8%, 8%, 9%, 10.
It peaked at 13%.
December was 10.3% for the ratio.
So yeah, it, I mean, it's a doubled the DEX to sex ratio.
So exciting.
Very cool.
Yeah. I love that one. I think it's so, I think exciting. Very cool. Yeah.
I love that one.
I think it's so,
I think it's so cool and such a good thing for the world for us to get away
from centralized exchanges and towards decentralized.
I mean,
self custody and these decentralized systems that can't be,
you know,
censored,
blocked,
confiscated by the powers that be
is just such a good thing for humanity.
I actually think we're going to get there quicker than people think, though.
Even the centralized exchanges like Coinbase are letting you swap on base in Solana
and you've got OKEx doing the same thing.
The exchanges are sort of getting everyone on chain they're doing a way that
sorry we good uh it came up action was lost uh they're doing it in a way that um
it keeps the user in their purview they just say but like a smart but i mean we're definitely
you know i mean people are waking up for sure. They're moving to
privacy is becoming a thing.
Decentralization is becoming more of a thing.
So I think
that has to do a lot with the worldwide
instability.
Either way, it's going on.
It's scaling. It's user experience.
It's fees.
It's stability. it's user experience, it's fees, it's stability, right?
When it comes to decentralized stuff, a lot of people still don't trust it as it comes out.
These things still get broken.
They get hacked or whatever, but centralized exchanges, I don't know what the scoreboard is over the last, call it, few years or versus the last 10 years or something,
but in the past it was centralized exchanges were always so much more dangerous.
But over time, decks, they get hardened and strengthened.
All the decentralized infra just gets hardened and strengthened because it's code.
And you can continue to strengthen code.
It just keeps getting better and more battle tested.
When it gets more similar to, to what's already been out there.
Here, let me read you. I don't know if this is accurate, but this is just going by Grok.
Percent of volume per year. So I asked it to go back seven years.
of volume per year.
So I asked it to go back seven years.
So it starts with 2019 and it says 99.5% was sex.
In 2020, it was 98, 2021, 91,
yeah, 91, then 90, 92, 90, and then 25, 80.
So these are, it said, but it does mention two, 90, and then 25, 80.
So these are, it said, but it does mention, what Timmy said, it peaked at,
well, we'll call it, we'll go the way that they're saying,
63% sexes and 37% dexes.
It peaked in June.
So interesting.
I mean, still, it's only, you know, for the year, it's only 2080.
So 20-86.
All right.
Someone's speeding by in their Porsche.
Yeah, interesting.
Good to see it moving in the right direction.
Yeah, they will continue moving there.
Darren, go ahead and read any other predictions.
I'm going to look through comments and find some interesting ones.
I got it.
And then we'll read.
Hey, Darren.
Cool.
So Sebastian from Sandbox said,
blockchain gaming will enter mainstream.
That didn't happen.
Jordan Charters said,
AI agents will be the main...
Hold on, let's pause on that one.
Are there any...
What is the biggest blockchain game right now?
Or biggest...
Aren't there are there any
like big games or kind of like hybrid yeah mainstream
off the grid probably the biggest one that was mostly hype by like actual um
kofl's and the gaming industry um that you can play on Xbox, it's on Epic,
it's on the other places that you would typically download a game.
Definitely two or three games that have been within the realm of
somewhat mainstream, easy to adopt, easy to play.
to adopt, easy to play.
You don't actually need to know about the aspect of it.
Okay, next prediction.
The next prediction was Jordan Charters,
and he said AI agents will be the main players
when it comes to DeFi this year.
Can someone pull up numbers on that?
I don't think it's the case at all yet,
but it's moving in that direction, sure.
I think it's...
I'm sure there's more AI trading this year
than there was last year, at least,
but we were starting from very little to nothing.
But I think eventually it will be a big percent i don't
know how long it'll take to get there though i think that would be hard to quantify because not
all the people using ai agents are not all the agents are public there's a lot of private ones
uh yeah hard to know huh yeah well eventually we'll probably get to the point where it's just
clearly obvious most of it's ai but you know um I don't think they'll ever be able to quantify that accurately, how much, on a percentage level at least.
If anyone can find any information on that online.
I made a JGB estimate, and it thinks less than 5% of DeFi activation.
That's still a good amount for how early it is.
But you know, I guess I'm surprised it's not more
because what about on centralized exchanges?
Because the thing is, AI has taken on a new meaning
now that these LLMs have come out.
AI has been around for a long time.
You could argue calculators are AI,
and you can argue there's been all kinds of iterations of AI.
I mean, I think people like algorithms, is that AI?
Yeah, I think so.
It is.
Why wouldn't it be?
It's some kind of intelligence that's artificial.
That's, you know, not the same thing as these LLMs.
But we keep moving the bar on what is AI.
Right now we're like,
oh, well, they're not creative though.
In the future, whatever, we keep moving the bar.
So I would say we've had AI in trading for 50 years.
These like AI, algorithmic quants and all these things.
I wonder how much of,
what if you change that phrase to automated,
either for Dex or Sex?
And while you're pulling that up,
go ahead, Nicole, what's the next prediction?
The next prediction is DeFi will have a major resurgence
and it was from Mr. Future.
And he maybe had the timing wrong so then it's had some resurgence i guess um it's it's not like defy coins are pumping like crazy they did have some some some hype at different times of the
year but i mean realistically nothing nothing got major hype other than,
I mean, just very select things, very select things, prediction, you know, and the weird
thing is a lot of these select things that are getting hype are not investable by retail.
And I think that's why it feels kind of shitty, uh, because a lot of these are, you know,
lot of these are, you know, someone, uh, who was it? Oh yeah. Um, ice, I think, uh, the, um, the
company that owns, what is it? NASDAQ or New York Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, I think,
they invested like 2 billion in, uh, Polymarket. Doesn't really help the retail, I don't think, right? They don't have a token, right? So interesting.
It's the, yeah, well, see, that's the thing that sucks
is it'll be just like in the stock market.
It'll be the insiders who got these like series A rounds
and these early rounds, these private rounds
that will dump on the public,
which is not how crypto used to be,
but it's moving into that realm,
unfortunately,
where,
you know,
it's becoming institutionalized,
which there's good and bad about that,
by the way.
We also need a direction from the future himself.
He's not been on X or Calum for at least a month.
So yeah,
I have the details on.
Wait,
what happened?
Is he okay? Yeah. Can't ask.
No future has not been on X or Telegram. It was on a few times. Thank you. It was Canadian.
Okay. Oh, I don't know. I don't remember. He's probably just under snow somewhere.
I don't know.
I don't remember.
He's probably just under a snow somewhere.
With regard to centralized
the actual volume,
60-80% is
like market
makers, high frequent
trading, etc.
Less than 5% is
genuine AI driven.
This is 40-60%
is automated.
So that's 40- 60% is automated. So that's
40 to 60% automated.
I would call that AI.
I think that would be fair.
But maybe it's not the AI
that we're talking about.
It's more like a
I would necessarily call it AI.
Like just a bot
that's looking for
mathematical stuff.
Okay, if we went back
200 years
and I told you,
maybe whatever, 300 years,
and I told you,
hey, there will be an invention.
This artificial intelligence,
you could put any two numbers into it
or any hundreds of numbers
and it could multiply,
add, subtract, whatever.
This thing will be the most advanced human brain ever
at calculating math.
And it'll be a form of what we will call
artificial intelligence.
Would you not, would you fight that?
Would you say, no, that's not intelligence.
Only artificial intelligence has to be a large language.
I think we just keep moving the bar
on what artificial intelligence is.
I think that a calculator, computers,
it's all artificial intelligence.
Yeah, I mean, if I used to, like,
animatic support 10 years ago,
they wouldn't have called it AI.
But now they would call it AI.
It probably hasn't changed much
in the back end.
Yeah.
Okay, next prediction?
It was Poseidon DAO,
and he said the value of the DeSci market
will overtake the DeFi market.
Yeah, not even close, I don't think.
No, no, not even close, no.
Well, they are in DeSci.
So a little talk in the books there.
We all do it.
Even if we're not doing it on purpose, right?
We all have biases.
I mean, I've been thinking DeFi was going to have a huge resurgence too.
That would have been one of my predictions.
And I mean, in weird ways, it kind of has.
I mean, I also though, I like to challenge our kind of definitions.
I think that Bitcoin is a form of decentralized finance.
I think stable coins are a form of decentralized finance.
I think stable coins are a form of decentralized finance.
It's just not what we are commonly calling DeFi these days.
I mean, how is storing your money and spending your money not like part of finance?
But we're more talking about like for some reason reason specifically trading and borrowing and lending is DeFi.
It's kind of weird.
Waiting for the next one? I think a lot of people think about finance as the ability to earn yield.
I think that's a big part.
Yeah, they're decentralized exchanges.
But I think the idea of DeFi and smart contracts
are tied very closely together.
The ability to do things in an automated
and by code way where Bitcoin really is just...
You can send Bitcoin, but you need something else to
get Bitcoin back because really Bitcoin's mostly only good for the sending, but it's not, the
Bitcoin network itself isn't great for receiving other assets other than Bitcoin. It's not even
the best for sending. I mean, it's, I would say it's the best thing it is is storing your your value
and growing your value yeah that all i meant was like which is by the way actual actions you can
take you can really only send but yeah you just buy and sit which is another kind of definition or
thing that i'll challenge in the world and there's reasons for nuance between yield
and appreciation.
But like when people say, oh, why do you, you know, Warren Buffett says, why do you want gold?
It doesn't produce anything.
Well, what do you want at the end of the day?
With any of these assets, you want more money or you want to protect your value or however you want to define it.
I personally, except for tax reasons, which makes things a little more complicated, but I don't give a shit if I am getting a 10% yield or if I'm getting 10% appreciation.
It's at the end of the day, isn't it? Kind of the same thing. There's reasons it's not,
and it's nuanced, but I think people look at it weird. I don't care if Bitcoin or gold doesn't produce value.
It's the same thing.
It's just appreciating.
And it's appreciating because it is producing value in another way.
It just doesn't have cash flow.
It's producing value by giving people a way to store their assets.
That is value.
It's just a different way we look at it than a normal company producing cash flow.
Alright, next
prediction. Next prediction
from Eduardo from the future.
2025
is the year of adoption driven by
easy to use platforms that appeal
to non-crypto people.
I'd say no on that one.
I would say the biggest platforms
were the ones that appeal to non-crypto people
as far as Polymarket and Courtyard
are probably the two biggest breakout apps
that were way more for normies.
But I think if I had to call 2025,
it was more the year of uh we didn't finish
regulatory clarity but that was really the theme of the year i think what about stable coins i
didn't hear the whole question there's a lawnmower going by me by the way guys reminder on these
spaces walk or on any space you go on get your steps in uh i'm at like, I don't know, five and a half, six miles right now.
