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Whales Bought the Dip Again. Should You? | Market Check
Recorded: March 20, 2026 Duration: 1:07:08Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by
BB. There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Happy Friday, everybody. We have made it to the end of yet another week in these markets.
And yeah, quite a week it was. Obviously, lots to talk about. I think not just a week in review, but obviously going forward.
And we'll be here to discuss it with you guys live on Market Check.
But I'm Snorlax.
You guys also know me as Tommy.
Joined by Tucker, Max, and of course, Big Louie.
Like I said, we're going to have a great show for you guys today.
But before we can get down into the weeds and the more granular market discussion,
you should know the drill at this point.
We're going to ask if you guys can slam that like button for us.
Smash the like button for us if you're frustrated at the coins or smash the like button if you want to punch bears in the face.
If you want to punch bulls in the face, right?
Just pretend the like button is your counterparty.
We would be very appreciative if you did that.
And of course, you know, we don't have to look at soybeans,
which actually do look pretty bullish, funny enough.
But yeah, I'm getting into the nitty gritty, right?
Because I assume you guys have already hit the like button.
We are seeing equities continue to just kind of like bleed lower.
We are below the range low that we kind
of, well, you know, I guess you could kind of argue where that range low is, but the important
low for positioning was kind of around 6,700. We are now trading into the lows, I think,
from September and October of last year, I guess, October and November rather of last year here on
the S&P. Are we going to see selling accelerate if we break that low next week? Or is this potentially a spot to look for a reversal
structurally as we are still holding these lows? Seeing some individual names start to show a
little bit more volatility here locally speaking, which makes sense because we had VIXPiration this
week. There's probably not as much underlying support pinning the market.
So do we see that finally shift next week?
Or is this positioning roll off an excuse to crush volatility rather than ultimately raise it?
I guess we can discuss that on the show as well.
But of course, you know, Bitcoin is doing, I hate to say it, you know, I hate to say it,
that relative strength thing that it tends to do. Is this a sign that we've hit our bottom for
Bitcoin and we're establishing value? Or is this a sign that Bitcoin is maybe just kind of stalling
and waiting for equities to catch up before all sell together? You know, again, I think the things
that we should discuss on today's stream. How is everybody doing, though?
What are we seeing in the markets?
Any tournament games that we enjoyed yesterday?
I've got to keep it light, guys.
It's Friday.
Dude, the high point game, man.
The high point game was brutal.
I'll tell you what.
Busted a lot of brackets, I'm sure.
Busted mine.
I think that happened a lot the first week, right?
I feel like that happens a lot in the first couple games.
Dude, I know.
Well, Tommy was saying the astrology was favorable for upsets yesterday.
None of the upsets I picked, but I'll say.
Well, you got TCU. i was technically an upset right yeah i guess we'll count a nine beating an eight as an upset um yeah anyways good old bitcoin
staring into the abyss as they say staring into the abyss
i still kind of want to see 77k happen i i really i really would like this but uh
maybe we won't get there man maybe we maybe i was too picky i I was about $1,000 too early. So maybe I was too picky, but it doesn't seem like a bad place
for a little weekend bounce, a little Friday slash weekend bounce potentially.
But again, the problem is this.
I just don't know how that resolves, man.
Yeah.
It's dying every day.
I mean, there has to some like climax that happens to bottom
this chart right there's just no way it's gonna just u-turn for no reason i don't think i can
ever remember a time when i've seen such controlled mechanical selling this this almost looks fake
you know that's how i feel about it it doesn't even look like a price chart it's just
so organized yeah closest thing i've found is the qqq i think in 2024
bro selling's not real just close your computer and the selling stops
qqq finally starting to look like the s p a little bit actually because it wasn't for a while
yeah you know yeah if you go to go to like 2024 i think it's
wow tucker they're accusing you of not having any traps right no traps that's correct that's
a crazy take man the crazy take i don't know who i was micro sailor
i'm not gonna trap flex on stream that's just it's just not me but you know oh i didn't realize
you were in a tank look at that dude it's like it's like what is it right now it's 73 we haven't
had weather like this since September.
It's like 55 where I'm at, but for some reason it's colder in my garage than it is outside.
Really?
I'm always cold.
That looks similar, I guess.
It feels like we're kind of at those lows it came into before reversing.
But I feel like coming out of a structure like this,
you see how that thing just V-shaped recovered hard.
I feel like that is on the horizon, not to be like a permable on the S&P.
It's just the structure of how we've sold off here.
We haven't, we haven't like pressured one lower high yet on this way down.
Um, and I feel like if, if that's going to occur, you know, I don't think that occurs at a key inflection point top. So obviously, you know, we're, we're selling off, maybe we come lower, maybe we don't, but you know, none of, none of those lower highs have gotten pressured
or, or tested.
Uh, I feel like it's setting up for a short squeeze in a way, but that doesn't
mean we don't have more downside first, you know?
So, um, but we are coming into our first level here, which is, which is here.
Um, so we'll see We'll see. The structure
seems suspect
to me. It feels like a trap
to me, honestly.
We will see. Maybe I'm overthinking it.
Maybe I'm overthinking it.
We haven't had one
lower high anywhere, man.
We've had a bunch of lower highs.
I guess not. Yeah,, we've had a bunch of lower highs. Well, I guess not like a, I mean, yeah, four on the four hour, but like,
you know, kind of higher timeframe.
We haven't put in like one of these, like a shoulder at all, I guess.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Which is suspect to me.
Probably not the place to load up on puts.
Yeah. I wouldn't yeah i wouldn't i wouldn't it's like if you're
in them already you know it's worth holding if you get that climax to the downside but i definitely
wouldn't be piling and piling in and adding here which probably is what we're seeing occur right now. VIX is pushing back up today a little bit. So yeah, we'll see how it shakes out.
I mean, overall, Bitcoin's been holding up quite well. Famous last words.
I mean, until, yeah, dude, until they can crush the vicks below this line i don't
i don't see why we're gonna stop selling
you just chuck norris died i know how are we not talking about that who has time for the
vicks when chuck norris passes i know I know, you're right. Hang on. Have some respect.
In his 70s?
Wait, he was 86 years old?
Holy shit.
He was old.
Why did I think he was like 60?
Damn.
Where's it? R.I.P. r.i.p wow chuck norris didn't die death got chuck norris amen brother about the same man middle school me would have had a meme for this come on yeah
what a guy i know absolute legend
i mean how am i supposed to go on with the show like
chuck would want me to persevere though, right?
There we go.
I'll always remember the memes and of course his dodgeball scene.
He's in dodgeball?
Oh yeah, he's the judge that
keeps their hopes alive. It's so judge that... Oh, shit. Their hope's alive.
That's so funny. I forgot about that.
Screw you, Chuck Norris.
What does the death of Chuck Norris mean for crypto prices?
Does it have any effect directly?
I can't imagine it's good.
We will be selling in solidarity of
it feels bearish to me
I can't explain why but it does
feel bearish
there's just no way Chuck Norris dies and we pump
that would feel super wrong
I don't know what do we think about the relative strength on bitcoin famous last words
not as much bitcoin but if people start talking about the eth relative strength then it's over
it's something you never do okay no it's not you you never ever talk aboutTH relative strength, then it's over. Is that something you never do? No, it's not.
You never, ever talk
about ETH relative strength.
Those are famous last words.
The altcoin relative strength.
It's over.
Oh, alts are holding up really well, given all
the selling.
Boom.
That's the last thing that you hear
before you just get hit by a freight train.
Ten-year yields are pumping today.
Yeah, it is.
Dude, what is going on with yields?
What is going on, man?
It's still not good.
How is this possible possible i'm actually struggling
to understand how we're pumping from here the tl will be studied unless it's literally just like a
war scam then that's sending yields higher and then when like the war cools off we just nuke or something tommy are we betting on five percent by end of
month or what end of march yeah that might be a little soon but too aggressive definitely i
i think we get it by end of april well let's see if there's a market for that
i mean i i just like think TLT looks horrible.
I mean, just look at TMF or whatever.
That's your play.
Good old TMF.
Remember the old TMF?
Yeah.
Yeah, dude, look at that thing.
Buy some 28 strike puts for like end of, I don't know, end of April.
Dude, that looks really bad.
I mean, this one looks way worse than TLT because it has the contango.
But nonetheless, I mean, still looks fried.
Which is just the inverse USDJPY.
Are you telling me it's one big trade, Tommy?
It's all one trade.
It's all one trade, and I think if it does end up playing out like this,
we get dollar wrecking ball with treasury selling.
There's just no way this doesn't resolve without having a stab down like that.
You know,
that's how I feel about equities too.
I almost feel like you're going to see like,
like duration sell and equity sell at the same time,
get some big climax and then like everything bottoms together,
you know?
I think so too.
It's just look at all the charts
They all look like they're unresolved
Is the word that I keep coming back to
Like they're just unfinished
Bearish patterns that haven't quite
Climaxed yet
But happy to be wrong about that
Happy to be wrong
How low does TLT drop?
Because we are basically at like the all-time lows of the chart right now i think truly your like worst case is yes like making a new low on that chart
which is like a po3 for the local structure like you take out all that junk down there. Yeah. And then zoom back in Tucker to like
the weekly or daily or whatever you were on and then draw like a little PO3 down there. I think
that's exactly how that resolves. New all time low, local PO3, equities nuke, crypto nukes, quick drops,
VIX spikes higher,
everything bottoms together.
That would be ideal.
I feel like this is going to like 60.
Yes.
It looks like the FTX Bitcoin bottom to me.
That's what it looks like.
It's reminding me a lot of the Bitcoin
6K euthanasia loop.
Maybe not like the
parabola into that loop,
but just kind of like at the bottom
when it was just that bouncing ball of death.
To be fair, though, this is kind of what oil looked like at the lows,
and everyone was expecting that stab lower, and it never came.
Just fucking ripped the other way.
Like where, Louis? like where louie like at the actual low kind of
i think the structure is so different like
i feel like it's more so looking like that yeah yeah like the context
of like where it is within the sell off
is like the one
to the right that you're talking about looks
more like a bull flag off that low
where TLT almost looks
like you know
some sort of
attempted accumulation that
looks like it needs to scare the hoes first
but yeah I love that saying attempted accumulation that looks like it needs to scare the hoes first.
Yeah.
Scare the hoes.
I love that saying.
You came up with that, Tommy.
I can't take credit for that. That's you.
You said that a while ago, and I was like,
I'm going to whip that out once a quarter, you know,
just to keep people on their toes.
I've got it trademarked, like, a certain word demand.
If I said it, I'd have to pay.
Word demand.
Yeah, you guys owe me a lot of money.
No one's ever paid me for the use of that word,
by the way.
I know how much everyone owes me.
But yeah, no one seems
to want to pay up, which is frustrating.
I own the word, but
it's fine.
I've kept a running tally.
Tucker owes me at least $3.
Yeah.
So, Tommy, there's a market for how high the 10-year yield would go before 2027,
and 5% is priced at 18%.
What is 5.5%?
Oh, my.
6 is 6%, but there's no volume.
Never mind.
There's also no volume in 5.5%.
I feel like 5.5% is pretty doable, honestly.
By end of year?
Yeah, definitely by end of year.
I mean, if we actually get the USDJPY breakout and TLT breakdown,
then, like, yeah, I think those things are going to happen.
And, oh, my God, the 10-year looks insane right now.
I know.
Yeah, it does. Don't you just love higher gas prices, higher interest rates, and more inflation?
Isn't that exactly what we signed up for?
Yeah.
The best.
Scammed yet again.
Try to buy a Tesla.
Only a Cybertruck, Max.
I have to buy a Rivian.
Buy a Rivian? Dude, this lady I know has a rivian and it's pretty sweet it is pretty sweet but i don't know get long physical rivians instead of
take custody and warehouse literal ribbons.
I love the concept of physical delivery in certain futures markets, right?
Like oil.
Dude. You forget to roll a contract.
Imagine explaining to your wife how to store hundreds of pounds of oil barrels that arrive at your house.
Yeah, I mean, I've got 300 lean hogs in the garage right now, man.
My wife is not happy.
They're squealing away.
They're squealing.
I just know people have made that mistake not even knowing
and just had like tons of oil show up at their door,
or like tons of some random future.
You know that no limit guy?
No limit gains?
I don't, but I might have.
You must, dude.
He's like a little smiley face.
Whatever. He was saying apparently little smiley face. Whatever.
He was saying
apparently he's a good trader.
I can't really vouch for that at all.
He's saying he's buying
a bunch of corn today.
That would be also pretty funny
if he forgot corn showed up at his house.
I think
most exchanges have it set to
automatically roll the contract now
because of that's probably happened a lot in the past probably um
ooh bullish on agriculture though man bullish corn dude look
i have a friend that's not even trying to play equity shorts he's just playing agriculture logs
trying to play equity shorts he's just playing agriculture logs i'm like you know what fair play
i'm like you know what fair play
i don't hate it what is this 468 dollars per what
per bushel or bush for a brushable
You're not entirely aware with corn sizing?
Ain't much.
Wouldn't mind beef futures.
futures horse futures
Horse futures.
oh model s and model x are being discontinued interesting what i don't even know about these
models like what what does that even which are those the normal ones i assume so i'm gonna have
to look this up. Model S.
Who's our keyboard?
Okay, yeah, the Model X can go, man.
That was never...
Yeah, that one can go.
I don't know. it's the oil rig
yeah
model S
which one is that
model S is fine
they're discontinuing both
what are they even going to have
cyber truck bro
just cyber trucks
they still have Y right oh yeah I think
that yeah why would they even do this they didn't have a Z like you know like
going for the end of the alphabet thing and not having a z what are you doing or w you'd have to ask evan
w model y is kind of bad looking too dude
i actually like the model threes the most the performance ones
they're like kind of small and sporty oh yeah those are nice
yeah I like those
I've been looking at those man
I don't know they've had my attention for a while
the problem is I live
in a state that's really cold half the year
so like I think the battery
would maybe
fizzle a little bit
but I don't know.
I see a lot of them here.
People drive them.
I don't know.
I'm going to pimp one out.
Model 3.
Remember that old show, Pimp My Ride?
Yeah.
The thing was hilarious, man.
It was not even cool stuff it was like
they would just be like so what's your hobby and they'd be like i love like you know jumping on
trampolines and they'd be like watch this like a trampoline in the guy's trunk or something you
know it's like no one needs that in a car like so he loves his fish so we put a giant fish tank in the trunk
yeah literally it was the most obscene like the most ridiculous shit ever
but it was entertaining this is crazy i just like i just clicked all of the you know the craziest
stuff and it's telling me i only owe 1400 i mean obviously that's finance but like
there's nowhere to even unclick finance like i don't even know oh there's a cash button never
mind sorry i assume you want stealth gray max i want what stealth gray
yeah sure why not wait are you ordering a cyber truck right now
no i was doing the model three performance for max but
56 000 for fully pimped out that's what i mean like they're not that pricey and they have good deals on them.
And you also get a tax write-off.
Aren't those going away, though, or less than what they used to be?
Maybe.
I have no idea.
Can I tell you guys
a moment earlier this week that
really upset me?
Yes.
It's obviously purely anecdotal, but i was ordering a milkshake from chick-fil-a like two days ago and the
milkshake was seven dollars which for one like crazy to think about a chick-fil-a milkshake being
seven dollars because i feel like they used to be three or four. The cup that shows up is like half the size of a milkshake
that I would have gotten two years ago.
So like the food inflation, it's hidden.
It's definitely hidden.
I feel like I'm getting fed less for more expense.
Even my chicken bags that I get from costco are not bags but they're
like you get the six pack of the tenderloins um i mean i used to be able to have more than enough
to be full and then have leftovers and now like my wife and i eat the the chicken and there's not even enough for leftovers.
There's barely enough for me to have like seconds. So I feel like,
I don't know if you guys can see it too, but that was just a randomly on my mind.
Yeah, no, that's real Tommy. That is real. Let's see. yeah not real time and israel
let's see
so i fully designed and out the cyber beast 110 k
it's pretty sweet though
briefly
anyway anyway anyway
what else is going on
anything
do we have news
are we pumping
a green candle
green
relative strength question mark Green. Relative strength?
Are we allowed to say that?
Once we reclaim 72k.
Got any
boldives?
Spare some bull divs.
Spare a bull div, please.
Change.
I'm buying the dip.
With what?
I would say that's a
I would say that's a bull div, man.
I would say there's a little divergence there
Louie valid
there might be some hidden bullish divergence there
hidden in plain sight
I'm kind of feeling like we're
dumb this weekend but
I hate to make predictions
about price on a weekend
yeah I think it's been a while since we got some
weekend volatility yeah it's been years years and years but now they started
now when we were nuking they were nuking us on the did you even say thank you for strengthlation.
Drink every time Louie shows RSI.
Louie's not even on the chart, bro.
Did you see the one where it said drink every time Tommy says volatility?
No. speaking of move what does that look like today nice
it's pretty good rising
trying something's gonna move
is it uh is it identical with the vix right here? Just the reset.
Yeah, I also think it's just like an inverted financials chart right now.
Yeah.
Yeah, pretty much.
Yeah, I don't know how high this is going to spike, but I imagine TLT is going to cause it to spike.
How about Tau? T tau's been super strong
dude that was a lot
what does the mech c chart look like
for like the um the full price history
so that's a beautiful deviation back inside move
that is an extremely
funny chart.
It's an insane chart.
Everyone's out? Perfect.
Perfect.
He's good.
The all-in
guys are pumping this.
I know. so the all-in guys are pumping this looking coin i would say other than maybe hyper liquid
i'll try to play the channel man what am i doing
just play the tron tron is the strongest chart
in crypto right now tron my goat
my goat wow that's so funny
Justin Sun.
just inside you gotta love him man yeah
You gotta love him, man.
Yeah.
Cleared of all wrongdoing, man.
Vindicated.
Totally vindicated.
Justin Sun has never committed any crime.
Not even once.
Not even once.
Per the court of law.
That is the strongest coin.
It is.
It's very strange, but it is.
No one's talking about it.
It's just like, yeah, I mean Justin's son is probably untouchable at this point.
yeah i mean justin's son is probably untouchable at this point
airlines jet blue airlines pump into the summer pull up ticker jets jet blue
no just jets i think that's like the airline stocks
No, just Jets. I think that's like the airline
stocks.
That's the airline. I got Global Jets ETF.
I can't wait for my airline
tickets for all the weddings that I have to
go to this year to cost me like an arm
and a leg.
I'll have three in September.
Three weddings. I've got eight this year what's
tommy jesus christ yeah it's uh it'll be worth it though i've got three coming up next like six weeks
next like six weeks.
So yes, I will be traveling.
Yeah.
JetBlue.
JetBlue.
Look at Delta.
JetBlue is out of the close now.
It's way better than JetBlue. now it's really the only good airline left hey i'm a united man tommy denver's a hub i mean this looks pretty parabolic
i don't know what to make of these, man.
Does that stock pay a dividend?
I have no idea.
It looks like a stock that would pay a dividend.
Yeah.
I don't know.
Where do you... Where's, like, the thing?
Click the watch list or whatever.
No, not even there. Just your watch list.
And then like add Delta up there.
Yeah, exactly.
And then dividends.
Yeah.
Yeah.
No, it's 1.1.
Yield.
What does TTM mean?
Whoa.
Yeah, 0. Whoa. Yeah, 0.1%.
Whatever.
Seasonals.
It's kind of going into a good season.
People are going to have to fly in the summer.
Post-April, yeah.
I hope they've booked their flights.
I haven't even looked at plane tickets yet.
Have they gone up a lot over the last few weeks?
I have no idea.
Because allegedly they hedged their fuel costs way in advance.
But something tells me that we're still going gonna get the price increase because they hate us
yeah we got the tariff price increase all of those companies are going to end up getting
refunded and they're going to keep prices high no matter what so you gotta love it dude look at this
you gotta love it dude look at this it's like a coin it looks like pnc what the hell dude
is ryan air doing something revolutionary
they've got good did they bring back warm chocolate chip cookies like midwest airlines
did back in the day one thing i do like i mean i don't know if you guys have been on a flight that has starlink yet
but it's really nice to not have to pay for wi-fi on a plane just get it for free who has that
united i think delta is implementing it too but i'm usually not paying premium dollar for a delta ticket i mean dude i never pay for wi-fi
just download a bunch of whatever do that i refuse to pay for wi-fi i don't know i will often pay for
wi-fi i bet you will you can't download fractaling
You can't download Fractalink.
Airlines might be something to watch.
It's crazy how different JetBlue from Delta looks.
Let's talk about SMCI, man.
Did you guys see the news with them
i i saw a meme though but what's his uh what's the name of the the ceo from nvidia
jensen it's a meme of like you know like um the batman movie where they're on the plane
you're like they expect one of us in the wreckage, brother. It's like the CEO of NVIDIA saying that to the guy from SMCI
because they're both Asian, I guess.
I don't know.
The co-founder who holds $465 million in SMCI stock
is facing up to 30 years in prison for the amount of fraud that he's committed.
What fraud did he commit uh let's see charged with smuggling billions in nvidia servers to china
used the southeast asian shell company to funnel two and a half billion in servers to chinese buyers
510 million worth shipped in just three weeks in spring of 2025 built thousands of fake dunny
servers to fool u.s compliance auditors caught on surveillance camera using a hair dryer to swap
serial numbers tickers and coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats can you pull up
the pull up their ticker yeah it's It's got to look awful, right?
Dude, that's the love of the game, man.
Wait, what is it, Tommy?
The hairdryer, SMCI.
Oh, yeah.
Peeling stickers off with the hairdryer.
Oh, jeez.
I don't know what that box was.
Oh, look at that.
Look at that gap down, dude.
Oh, my God. I think for for me it's really bearish this one
why does that look like the doge chart to me like scroll out a little bit like this past cycle or
something yeah i see that actually yeah low-key that looks like pepe
a little bit since the highs stop Stop it, Tommy. Stop it right now.
I'm just trying to see something.
Yeah, this is probably going to keep puking if I had to get.
Yeah.
It was in the charts.
I should have been fractal chudding this way harder.
I should have.
That's a crazy statement.
That was a crazy statement.
I should have been fractal chudding this harder.
Did you see what I tweeted last night?
I don't know.
Imagine getting upset at my market takes and then you realize i'm just a fractal chud
yeah but those fractals sometimes hit really hard and they're usually chaotic and destructive
they're never bullish ones man they're always just like everyone getting carted out last summer i had
a lot of really bullish ones for each and fairness yeah the 4k but when that like doomsday
snorlax fractal chud actually hits i feel like it's like three times a year and it's just like chaos you know
just chaos i do what i can't mom can i borrow your blow dryer
no vick spike goes on fractal chudded The fact that a guy worth $450 million loved the game
of fraud so much that
he was literally blow-drying off
serial number stickers is just
hilarious to me.
That truly is the love of the game
right there.
That's like when all these pro athletes
gig a make it and then they
still sell drugs or something.
That's a drugs or something. That's a rapper too, yeah.
Ja Moran.
Now, Ja Moran's not a thug, man. He grew up
in a private neighborhood in South Carolina.
Really? Yeah, he just
acts like a thug for some
reason
quarterly opex today boys i know what do you think is going to happen to these bitcoin options
i don't have any idea about bitcoin options
but evil looks foolish to me still let's see let's see
curious what evil i mean ethd evil looks where it looks a lot better than bitcoin devil if i'm being honest
that's not great no it's not it's like slow grinding into a three-year range high
three-year range high.
But Coin's been pretty resilient today,
all things considered.
I would highlight that.
Hi, Coin, dude.
Just nuke already.
Come on. It's going to break up. No, it's Just nuke already. Come on.
It's going to break up.
No, it's not, Louie.
It's going to 240.
240, you're out of your gourd.
I've never heard that phrase before.
You've never heard that?
240, I'll cover my
May 200
call options, 600%
in the money.
Louis, we're literally
each other's liquidity right now.
I'm on micro strategy
too, so it's me versus y'all.
Oh man, Louis. I'll see you in the books
I saw
we just drop sideways and we all get there
I saw that meme where it was
cause you know Dune and
the Avengers movie are coming out on the same weekend
yeah
neither are wanting to change it.
It was like, they really meeting
in the A-gap.
They are.
A-gap, Phil.
So good. so good just like i feel like we're very close to a lot of volatility but we're not going to get it today
drink damn it
it is friday It is Friday.
I don't even know how to respond to that comment. Do you guys have anything you want to talk about?
Not particularly.
Let's see the charts have been lackluster lately
yeah so I don't know.
I feel like this could be kind of a Jackass moment, you know,
where you like, I feel like this is a classic Jackass trade.
It's like you come back and sit on top of the prior highs.
Not everything's a range.
We'll see.
It really needs to push up to reclaim the range.
What range?
The giant range?
It needs to get above like 120, bro.
That's a push up already.
I would want to see 120.
would you guys be buyers of soul at any price
um like say we did dump would you be interested in buying soul at some point
at some point.
No, because I
had such a good trade on it last
cycle that I would not want to double dip
just as principle.
I feel like
you're just not going to get this move again.
Yeah.
Maybe you are, but
I don't think you're going to get it relative
to other L1s.
It was Bitcoin, and then it was ETH, right?
And then it was Sol outperforming ETH.
And now what's going to outperform Sol?
Not Sui, I'll tell you that.
Not Sui.
I heard the channel on it, Tuck.
It's right where Tau was.
On what?
On Sol.
Oh, on Sol.
I thought you meant Suii i was about to say no
real i mean i can uh it's not quite this no the the falling channel sui is maybe the biggest
vaporware i've ever seen in crypto yeah that's a lot sui man
That's a lot.
Sui man.
I take that back.
There's been bigger paperware than Sui,
but I still need the coin.
I think my issue with Sol is that, like,
why would it...
Why would we have the same, like...
I just think the next on-chain cycle is going to
be defy driven you know i agree which makes it hard for soul to be the winner i'm sure it will
do well right like eth went up multiples from the bottom but it's still underperformed this cycle
but it's still underperformed this cycle.
Yeah.
I like more of these, like, DeFi individual names, honestly.
What?
I like Sky.
Sky 2 is the ticker.
Sky 2?
Yeah, that's how I find it.
What?
Sky. Use the crypto. It's's maker by the way oh this is maker
right that's right i mean i think i'm gonna i think i'm gonna get a dip on this personally
obviously i think that but i uh i feel like this is in a high time frame range
that will eventually resolve up.
I just don't know when.
I just can't prove it yet.
I just can't prove it yet.
No, I don't think the trenches is moving off Seoul.
That's not what I'm saying.
People are still going to trench on Seoul.
There's no way around it.
But I don't know if that necessarily garners the same move right because a lot of the move from 2023 2024 was like
people started trenching on soul and there was a lot of hype and narrative and speculation around
that becoming enormous which it did for a while right but like i think that move happened more because
of the narrative of the trenching and the actual trenching i think we need to reframe what trenching
is like this just like hyper reflexive we trade coins for an hour and then they go to zero like
that needs to stop and it stopped because
there's no opportunity there anymore and i don't think that going forward on chain there's going
to be like a new meme coin every single day that just uh that just gets like punted to a
the same way that we saw like we got all season this cycle on soul on chain. We didn't really get the crazy alt valuations that we got in 2021.
But there was a lot of opportunity to make money on chain on soul this cycle.
I wish I had done a better job of capitalizing on that, of course, myself.
But yeah, I just think we're clearly at a point where there's a lot of skepticism, pessimism around crypto.
And I just think before we get back to the meme rotation, we need to see the fundamental rotation get bit, like actually get bit.
Um, because yeah, I mean, that's, that's what happened in 2021, right?
Like I know we saw these really speculative pumps and ultimately some ridiculous things
pumped too.
I mean, SHIB was sent to 30 to 40 billion.
We sent ether rocks, for God's sakes, to like, what, 10 million a pop?
That was crazy.
In hindsight, that's crazy.
At the time, i wanted a rock like we will send memetic
value to the stratosphere but we kind of like we kind of over i'll keep making the example is i
mean like the people who are still on chain on soul trenching are like crack addicts who want
another hit and it's literally killing them yeah we need to send them to rehab
or give them the miracle drug which i do think will be fundamentals 2021 the best on-chain
plays were in defy unless you caught shib super super early
like uh the olympus forks for god's sake spell was another one um
playing all the defy primitives on a new chain
trading fundamentals is so boring i disagree man because a lot of times the fundamentals are turbo
ponzi's they're mechanically the same as as meme coins right like if you guys were here for 2021
the three three mentality that the olympics forks had and basically like they played out or they
they laid out rather the game theory behind why it would work.
Like holding is a benefit to everyone is the exact same thing as what we saw with meme coins.
But I enjoyed the DeFi on the chain probably more than the meme coins on Sol.
I can't speak for everybody, but I loved playing with DeFi back in 2021.
Yeah, I agree.
It was just the Ponzi-nomics, you know?
Yeah.
Trading is fun when number goes up, right?
Like, that's what is at the heart of it.
Yeah.
2024 was so much fun man so much fun
every day there was just like some new crazy
runner
so fun
I know
one day we'll be back
and when we were in it
it didn't seem like it was that good
but it was
it was the best we had
I was like dealing my taxes
just going back through all the transactions
just like shaking my head
just Jesus Christ
yeah like what the fuck
what was I thinking
do I really still have some of that just jesus christ yeah like what the what was i thinking really by that
do i really still have some of that in my wallet right now
yeah i was like the meme like my cpa like didn't didn't believe me she's like can you send over your exact
transaction list I was like all right she really wants them far coin
we should probably talk about far coin before we wrap the show up it's been
strong I don't know how it's faring since yesterday, but it has been strong.
Yeah, it looks decent.
It looks decent.
If you get reclaimed 25 cents, it's not looking too bad at all.
It's better than most memes.
It's probably going to come back.
You think? Yeah. Are farts recession proof it appears so
it's looking that way
what's xpx 6900 look like
so why would i hold spx 69 well i guess the spx is not currently 6900 so
the bull case is returning
dude what is that chart
i hope murad uh hedged i'm sure he did
it's actually still like very elevated from where they pumped it, isn't it?
Yeah, you remember the on-chain chart was like...
Yeah.
That.
I'm so pissed at myself for fumbling
that play this cycle.
You had so much
at like 10 mil.
Dude, I knew this was going to pump knew mog was gonna pump and they didn't pump and i was like all right well i guess i'm just wrong three months later
no tommy is not secretly accumulating mug i can assure you that
my goodness well still might be my goodness
secretly accumulating uh flats
brain mug The charts are such a scam.
Yeah.
It's pretty crazy.
It's pretty crazy.
Speaking of charts,
anybody willing to join me in calling top on the hype move?
I actually am, yeah.
Oh, yeah, happy to.
God, I almost shorted the top man so brutal god i sat in a 33
dollar short for like two weeks and then got stopped so i'm just like i'm not even trading
this thing anymore so i think there's easier battles to pick exactly this is doing like
what zcash did there's definitely easier battles to pick but but as a man, you know, as a man,
there's a reason I shorted Google,
and there's a reason I almost shorted hype.
You know?
You want to take down the king.
The strongest name in the market.
You want to be the one to dethrone.
I have a theory
with hype.
Yeah.
I think it looks like the PNC chart in 2008.
Or J.P. Morgan.
One of the two.
The PNC chart when?
2008.
2008? Well, like, yes, i'm using this analog across i'm consistent
2008 i know you're consistent oh you mean that that went really high but yeah
i don't know if i think it's going to do that it could
like you said i think there are easier battles to pick.
But I do understand that masculine urge
to just bully the strongest one, man.
Just because everyone's so euphoric about hype right now,
it'd be kind of nice to just short the thing down like 80%.
Level to level, Max max there are a lot easier
battles to pick that's for sure i think the other part about shorting this thing is like even if
you're right it's gonna rebound so fast off every local low because of traders getting liquidated
on longs there's just going to be like this constant buyback mechanism
from hype making money off of traders losing money.
It's a brilliant Ponzi.
Yeah, I don't know.
I'm bullish on hype, man.
I'm not buying it here, but I like overall for like what it's starting to represent
as far as like crypto is concerned i feel like what it did in like 2025 is like did not justify
what it kind of represents and is valued at like what's the market cap right now
probably like 15 if I had to guess.
I mean, this is the shining light for crypto right now.
Yeah.
Oh, it's 10.
The FDV is like 40, but the market cap is 9.5.
But I mean, this is becoming like a global exchange. I mean, it already was global, but like...
It's pretty damn cool, man. I feel like... man. I feel like coming around to it, man.
Like people are using it. People, you know,
people are realizing the value of this trading on the weekends and,
you know, just in general, it's just, I feel, I don't know.
I think if we, if we do turn around, whenever we do,
I think this is really going to just continue to be a leader.
I'd love to be a buyer at 32, 30s, you know, like low 30s.
This really didn't go parabolic at all, you know.
Like if this thing pulled like a 30, 40X, I'd be a lot more bearish.
But it really didn't do crazy numbers.
I think it will.
I think it will.
It just needs Bitcoin to probably actually enter an uptrend.
actually enter an uptrend.
I mean, the only time hype has really,
I guess it did mark up from like nine to 40 bucks.
But the other, I mean, Bitcoin has been in like 40 to 50%
uptrends and hype ended up ripping six to seven multiples.
So what happens from the bottom?
Yeah. from next like the bottom yeah good coin if this doesn't if this doesn't do numbers and do well, what will?
I also think there's that eventual angle where hype wealth effect pours back into the on-chain economy.
Because that's what's always happened with these L1s when they go up. I'd be such a happy boy if he did another airdrop.
Oh, me too.
Me too.
Need that, my life.
Maybe they do it at the end of the year.
I'm sure they'll wait commodity trading much higher
but i have no idea how they would do it this time around
i feel like it's got to be in bullish conditions or else you're just adding cell pressure they yeah
i mean they know what they're doing man they will only do it in like their timing in november
of 2024 was literally perfect
i wish they had sent me an nft though i would have sold it but it would have been a nice to me yeah i selected i selected no when
they asked me if i wanted one i was like i don't want to trade i i thought it was i thought it was
tokens for nft and i'm like i want the tokens yeah nfc was just gravy i kind of like the NFTs, though.
I'm definitely biased, though.
I like cats.
That's probably a pretty good spot to wrap the show up, though.
If I had to guess.
Hopefully you guys enjoyed today's episode of Market Check, though.
I talked about
wide variety of topics um i think the market's getting to a really interesting point where we're
potentially going to see some really uh nice volatility to be trading and
um hopefully some some discounts to be investing or maybe below's already in for crypto uh i think
lots to uh decipher as we head into April.
11 days left in the first quarter of the year.
Can you guys believe that?
First quarter.
Tucker, you're muted.
So that's crazy, bro.
I know. It went back quick.
It really did, man.
I feel like it was, I blinked and the year just started.
But all right guys thanks for
tuning into market check reminder that we host this show throughout the week monday wednesday
thursday and friday if the new york stock exchange is open you can catch us at 11 30 a.m eastern
standard time um but also make sure to finish up your day with Market Talk hosted by King Wabi and the
Because Bitcoin X account. That is where you can find those spaces, guys. Our typical start time
is around 3.45 p.m. EST for some lively debate, conversation, and ultimately alpha. Yesterday's
space, I was very much enjoying listening to that space as well. I'm sure we're going to have some
very lively debate if we get some market volatility coming here over the next few weeks.
And Wabi, of course, will be there to cover it over on Market Talk. So make sure to finish up
your day for more market coverage. And like I said, undoubtedly some alpha as well. Thank you
guys for tuning in though. I hope you guys have a great rest of your Friday,
a great rest of your week. We will be back on Monday. But until then, thank you again, as always. And of course, stay safe.
