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What the Pentagon Isn't Telling Us: Investing in Classified Tech $UFOD
Recorded: March 4, 2026 Duration: 2:28:21Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Yo, yo, what is up, everybody?
Just unmuted there, Amp, but...
And he got rugged immediately as we did that hot off the press.
Boeing being sued by the Department of Justice.
Hot off the press to kick off the thing today.
You got rugged.
I'll wait a second.
I'll send it to you in a second.
Boeing is getting sued by the Department of Justice.
Hot headline off the press.
Go ahead.
Take it away.
Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Boeing in federal court.
Boeing stock, what are we doing?
BA, down probably?
Not really.
Boeing stock, not really moving.
I don't know if this is super new then.
Interesting.
But yeah, shout out to Ryan for helping me cover yesterday's stocks on spaces.
But we are back here today.
I am going to an event later, so I am probably going to have to dip out here a little bit early.
So that is why I am not behind the Stocks on Spaces account.
But this should be a fantastic conversation.
Should be able to hang out through the Broadcom earnings that we have after the close today.
Yes, today is a big earnings day.
There are still some names reporting, even though we are past the bulk of it.
We got Broadcom, Regetti, Okta, Weeble, Viva, ChargePoint, American Eagle,
Sidney Sweeney fans.
So we do have a couple names that are going to be reporting earnings today
after the close.
Broadcom should be out around 4.15 p.m. Eastern.
Yeah, and I do appreciate everyone for joining us,
trying to get some cool things coming.
Over the next couple weeks, there will be one or two days
for StocksOnSpaces will have to be modified.
We have a couple in-person things.
We're going to NVIDIA GTC, myself and StockTalk.
StockTalk might be able to go in and ask Jensen Huang a question.
I'll try and make that happen.
Maybe we'll do an in-person stocks on spaces.
I don't know.
We'll figure that out exactly.
But we have some exciting stuff coming.
Cool things in the works.
We appreciate everyone for hanging out with us,
allowing us to be a part of your daily routine.
And let's jump right into it.
It's a little more fun when the stocks market is green.
I was here Monday. Stocks were green. I was not here Tuesday. It was just Ryan,
stocks are red. And here I am again today. Stocks are green. Crypto is leading the day.
Correlation is not always causation, but sometimes we could say it is.
So a little bit of a green day today. My individual stock portfolio was up 2.5% today.
Bit of a green day today.
My individual stock portfolio was up 2.5% today.
The ETF portfolio was up 1.7% today.
So nice individual stocks outperforming.
I over-indexed towards Ethereum and crypto and BM&R.
So trust me, the last couple of weeks before this were not as good as today.
The ETF portfolio was maybe holding up a little bit better.
I always like kind of presenting what's really happening in this stuff. Always get better. I'm the person up here asking
questions. There was a couple of news stories that were interesting today, and then I will
throw it into our friends from the panel. Apple released seven new products so far this week.
The new one that came out today was the
MacBook Neo this is the new entry-level MacBook starting at $599 $499 if you're
a student but $599 they released a new iPhone 17 e same price they released new
MacBook Pros MacBook Airs a couple other stuff all of that stuff was released this
week from Apple.
There was a story from NVIDIA's CEO. He was speaking at a Morgan Stanley conference.
There's one or two other things that he said, and maybe I'll get up a post about it in a second,
but he said NVIDIA's $10 billion investment into Anthropic will probably be its last.
NVIDIA is unlikely to invest $100 billion into Open ai because the deal is because open ai is expected to go public before uh nvidia can get those shares so every once in a while you'll see that nvidia
stock portfolio thing a friend over at leverage shares makes fantastic graphics and i got to post
theirs um i imagine in the next couple quarters you're going to be some big numbers from nvidia
nvidia has been non-stop throwing around these investments. I'm intrigued to see it show up more on these 13F filings. Some of them are like stuff for things that can maybe happen in
the future if certain milestones are hit, but I'm excited to see those 13Fs continue to get
updated. Maybe Nvidia ends up messing around and ends up with like a $200 billion portfolio or
something. We shall see, but not investing more in Thrapik, not investing more
in OpenAI, probably there. Broadcom earnings after the close today. Coinbase came out and
said that it's official. Stock trading is live on Coinbase. That's where you want to trade stocks,
that's fine. I imagine there's no one in here doing that. But Coinbase, I mean, people are
watching the stock. It's an interesting one. I have bought some crypto on there.
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell. stock an interesting one i have bought some crypto on there president trump officially
nominates kevin warsh as the next fed chair to replace jerome powell still has to get confirmed
but they get some confirmation there wow i looked over at the coinbase chart i know bitcoin is
moving higher coinbase up 15 good move there for coinbase um target cutting back on some of the
bonuses it's giving to its employees uh bitcoin like like I said, was moving higher, had a nice move there.
Microsoft, some stuff around Copilot.
I know Amazon announced limited layoffs in one of their divisions, in the robotics division.
It seemed a lot more like brimming, ongoing attrition, just kind of basic stuff there.
It didn't really seem like the type of thing that was systemic or anything like that.
It still seems like an area that they were going to invest in.
Got a little distracted.
Core Weave and Perplexity announced a little partnership.
Basically, each other is going to use the other person's products.
Sony.
Sony Group will no longer be releasing their big PlayStation 5 games onto the PC.
Don't know how much the stock people are going to care about that,
but I'm sure there's a couple gamers in here who care.
We do have Whoop, the fitness band.
They're reportedly going to be going public in a two-year time frame,
is what the CEO said they're kind of gearing up for.
There was obviously a lot of stuff going on in Iran and stuff stuff and stuff like that i saw a report this morning that a container ship trying to enter the strait of her moves was
hit by two drones something to keep an eye on me at treasury secretary percent this morning saying
15 tariff rate likely to enter force this week and that rates will revert to previous levels
in about five months i don't know what's going to trigger it back in five months.
There was that. Nebius had a headline this morning, or it might have been late last night,
but they received secured local approval to build its first USAI factory campus with over a gigawatt of capacity. It was 1.2 gigawatts on a 400-acre campus. i didn't see exactly where it was but in the united states for sure
last headline i will keep you all with is is actually a very special birthday today
birthday today is the birthday of the s&p 500 turned 69 years old today actually and that's
not even a little hard joke it is 69 years old 69th birthday for the S&P 500. Previously, before that, it was actually the S&P 90, for anyone who didn't know.
So, yep, that is some of the news stories for the day.
I'm taking a look at my watch list, which maybe I need to add some stocks on here.
First place, and again, this hasn't happened a bunch.
There's been a lot of red times, is a 2X BMNR ETF.
BMNG is at the top of my watch list right now. So shout out to that. Always a good day in that direction. Coinbase, ASTS,
MicroStrategy, BMNR, AppleOvin, Robinhood, CoreWeave, CleanSpark are some of the names
standing out up here. A lot of names up more than 5%. Micron, AMD, Shopify, Intel as well.
When I look at the worst performers, I still have
Genius Sports on here. That one's down 5. Figma is down 3. Carnival, Axon, ExxonMobil. A couple
names underperforming today. Rivian is red today. Salesforce down by 8.8%. Google down by 0.4%.
Apple down by 0.3%. So there are some names that are in this red category, but nothing really standing out aggressively red. Overall, a pretty solid day. All right, long rundown from me
there. Appreciate everyone for joining in. How many speakers do we got? 296 listeners. Sorry,
296. That is an awesome start. Again, Broadcom earnings after the close, 4.15 p.m. Eastern.
Broadcom earnings after the close, 4.15pm Eastern.
Okta, Rigetti, Viva, Chargepoint, Webull, American Eagle, a couple others will be reporting earnings as well.
So we will be covering that live on this Spaces.
Cool.
I see some also cool people down below.
Emp, if you want to send me co-hosts, let's get Urkel up here.
Always a good time.
And everyone else, obviously, Logical Sniper. I can't see if you want to send me co-host let's get urkel up here um always a good time and everyone
else obviously logical sniper i can't see if you guys are up here but uh but yeah let's kick right
into it what's up what's up options mike hey evan how are you man doing well i'm doing well let me
guess we took traded nvidia to the upside we took apple to the downside. Overall, not feeling great on this market.
But maybe some stuff has started to stop going down.
How are we feeling?
Did I steal the thunder?
No, I did not trade it yesterday.
There you go.
Okay.
What was the one or two names you traded in the morning?
I traded Amazon.
I jumped all over Amazon early.
I had a really nice trade on it on options.
Grabbed the April 220 calls.
It was 650 out at 825.
So real nice little trade on that.
And I'm still feeling kind of miserable.
So I kind of missed the boat on some names today.
I wanted coin, but lost my attention on it when it took off.
Didn't want to chase it.
But overall, you know, I was really happy today to get up and saw that while the South Korean market was down 12% at one point and the Asian markets were down,
that Europe and the U.S. detached themselves from that mess.
And I think that's a good thing.
You know, this whole Iran thing is really just becoming a big,
we took all that weakness back, right?
So basically the whole Iran attack,
the market really doesn't seem to be concerned with it,
and neither shall we.
So in my opinion, we're back into this choppy range now.
We're just shy of the 50-day came right up in 21 day of the spy
and the question is can we break out and this morning we saw that you know if you you know a
lot of the last couple mornings you come in you're looking for setups and there was no really good
long setups or short setups the market for the last week or so has been like you know just the
setups weren't there and this morning you could kind of see them you had a strong bitcoin and that
put coin and hood immediately on my radar hood's the other one i missed i wanted that you know it happens uh video was strong early this morning uh tesla was
strong amd amazon right so you have strength in these names and amazon was staring at that gap
and hood was staring at that gap and that's one of the reasons they were on my radar this morning
uh when i did you know for the room i did a video at a 6 30 this morning then came in live at 9
and we talked about the setups and what i wanted and, you know, options of what we were looking for.
And, you know, you can't be upset with this action.
The question for me now is, you know, we've had a nice two-day reversal here, back into the chop zone.
And, again, the thing to remember here is we're still in the chop zone.
You know, we're back into this chop zone.
And the question is, can we break out of it now?
Can we get a break to the upside
or we're just going to come back into this area and go sideways?
And if we are, that's fine, you know,
as long as there's names to play.
And this market's been very good about finding names to play.
Intel had a nice recovery here as well, by the way,
if you weren't paying attention to that one today.
Meta broke out of that 660 area, another one on my radar this morning.
Apple and Google really didn't
participate today for what it's worth. They're just not participating. And I don't have anything
bad to say here. I mean, yesterday we're waiting to see how we would react again overnight. And
this feels better. Now we need to break that 688 area on the SPY. That would get us above the 50
day. And then that would allow us to push higher and see if we can go up and test the highs and see if we can break out of this channel. If we can't, you would look
for a move back down to the lower part of this channel, back down to the 681 area, 680, or maybe
even lower down to 670. But I think unless there's some dramatic news out of Iran where they managed
to do something that nobody had expected, I don't think anybody cares at this point.
I think that's basically over the big nothing burger as far as the market's concerned, not as far as the people who are fighting over there are.
And we move on and look on to the next event, which I think is jobs numbers on Friday.
It is a jobs week. We had ADP.
We'll have initial jobless claims tomorrow morning, of course.
And then NFP on Friday.
It is a jobs week.
Market should react to that a little bit, but who knows?
Who knows?
The market seems unconcerned with the data lately.
It really just doesn't seem to be concerned with it.
Can't really even see who.
So right now, it's literally just showing me, for the record, really just doesn't seem to be concerned with it. Can't really even see who.
So right now it's literally just showing me, for the record,
you options, Mike, and Brian on stage.
I don't know if the Wolf account, Snipe,
or Logical, Oracle are up here.
So it's an interesting time on spaces.
I just see.
I just see me.
Oh, you just see you?
It's the option.
There's Logical.
There's Logical.
I'm here.
I'm here. There's some people coming up. OK, I'll shut up now. Go ahead, Brian. What's up, Brian? see you? It's the... Oh, there's Logical. There's Logical. I'm here. There's some people coming up.
Okay, I'll shut up now.
Go ahead, Brian.
What's up, Brian?
How you doing?
Good.
You're not going to do an imitation of me?
You imitated Mike.
Give me the Brian imitation.
I don't know.
So maybe my imitation of you is like an imitation of Mike.
Maybe I already did your imitation, actually, if we're thinking super meta about it.
So you're literally saying Mike
and I are the same thing. Thanks so much.
No, I am saying that I am imitating you because
you have imitated Mike multiple times.
So I did your bit. I got you.
I only did it after Mike asked me to do it.
by the way,
the market started tanking when you
began talking. It didn't tank
but started selling off. So stop talking. Um, so look, if I'm looking at my event, guys, you keep talking,
you keep talking. Uh, so look, if you look at today's action, I think, you know, this is
something that we talked about yesterday. I know you weren't here, Evan, but maybe you were listening.
We talked about not predicting, right? When the market was at the lows yesterday,
you know, people were like, Oh, this is it. We're crashing. predicting, right? When the market was at the lows yesterday,
you know, people were like, oh, this is it. We're crashing. And of course, we had a reversal.
And all last night, as Mike alluded to, you saw everywhere on FinTwit about the KOSPI being down,
you know, the trip to breakers was down 11% at one point, you know, two days in a row, 15%, blah, blah, blah. And of course, everybody was predicting Armageddon
this morning. And of course, we opened up. So I just think it's a reminder not to predict,
because when you predict, not only can you be wrong, but you keep your eye on the wrong thing.
I think it's really significant that the Asian market was down big yesterday and we shrugged it off. I think it's important that the NASDAQ is outperforming
the rest of the sector or the indexes today on a relative basis. But like Mike said, we need
some follow-through days. I don't think we are going to get back to all-time highs until we get
some sort of resolution for what's going on with the financials. It's very, very hard for the indexes to break into new all-time highs
when the XLF is holding it down, when KRE is falling off.
The good news is XLF looks like it might be putting in a bottom right now,
but until I can see that thing break its intermediate term downtrend,
which would probably be somewhere around, I don't know, maybe like 52, 53,
I feel like we're just going to chop a lot. And so it's a tough market. If you're not real active, probably step aside. The other thing you can do, and this is something, again, I talked
about yesterday and the day before, is if you have long-term goals for certain positions that you
think you're going to hold for two, five, 10 years, you know, you can
do things like sell puts when something sells off a bit and try to get yourself in at a lower cost
basis, not your full position, but you can start a position. You can start working positions like
that, but that's a very nuanced approach to the market. And barring that, I, you know, I think
most people just need to kind of step aside and
just wait to see if there's any clarity and that clarity might not come for a while you know the
worst market people think the worst market is a bear market but really the worst market is a
sideways market because it just chops up everybody chops up the shorts it chops up the long so and
that's the type of market that we're in currently brian what do they say ranges are designed to wear
out everybody right both bears and bulls and that's what we've been in for the last four or five months. Yeah. And I think
one of the things that's particularly onerous about that is there are a lot of people who
are new to the market, relatively new to the market. A lot of people that maybe came in around
COVID and they really haven't experienced a sideways market. I mean, you know, we had markets for, you know,
in my career that went sideways for years. And I don't think,
I just think the mechanics of the market are not,
are not going to make that happen anymore. But the point is, is like, you know,
there's up down and then there's sideways. And, and, and I also,
I don't think we know what the effect of all these zero DTE products are is, you know, especially the ones on the mag seven.
So like, you know, again, I don't think the odds are in your favor if you're a casual, if you are someone that does this every day or someone that needs to do it to get paid.
OK, but for me, when I hear traders say, oh, I love volatility, I don't like volatility. I want a market that trades or that trends just like it trended out of the tariff tantrum.
That market you didn't need to day trade for months on end.
The effort to reward ratio is much better when you're dealing with swing trades
opposed to trying to do day trades or even scalping.
Unfortunately, we're not in that market right now. So sometimes the best option is to step aside until we start
seeing a trend that follows through and confirms, and then you can get back involved.
What do you think gets us to that trend? I don't know. I think that's...
I mean, obviously there's two answers, both different ways. Maybe it's the same thing, but...
Yeah. Well, again, I think that's just another trap. Like
people are always looking for what the catalyst catalyst is. And I don't know, I'm not smart
enough to know what the catalyst is. I mean, I would have thought that maybe once the bomb
started flying and certainly in the last few days, as we've seen like, you know, just tremendous
success, uh, in terms of the war in Iran. I thought that might
have taken some of the overhead resistance off. Maybe it has. I mean, you know, we've had two
good days, but it's very hard to know what the catalyst is. And almost by definition,
the catalyst will come out of nowhere, unless it's a earnings situation where there's some key
name that's going to drive the market. But like, I don't even know what the key names are. I mean,
look at NVIDIA. That doesn't move the market. Apple doesn't drive the market. But I don't even know what the key names are. I mean, look at NVIDIA.
That doesn't move the market.
Apple doesn't move the market.
So I don't know.
I don't know.
But it's like they used to say the definition of porn, right?
You'll know it when you see it because you'll be breaking into new highs.
You know, Brian, it could just be the market just finally has had enough and just goes.
And this time they don't keep it in, right?
You know, it could be one of those things too, that just finally, they could just let it run.
Yeah. And I think one of the things that we have to talk about, you know, if we're honest here is
like, yes, it's been a sucky market. It's been a choppy market, but we're just basically going
sideways. I mean, we're just basing. Look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA is literally the same place it's
been for the last three earnings cycles. That sucks if you're used to it going up all the time.
But if you want it to have another healthy leg up, this sideways action is really good.
It's really healthy.
It's just frustrating.
And again, this is why you don't want to push things when you have low percentage chances of making money.
There's this idea that if you're a trader,
you got to be trading. And like, I've always said trade less, make more. And, you know, I'm fine,
just cost averaging into some of these longer term names that I like. I've been selling puts
in Oscar. I mean, not today. I mean, past few weeks, I've been selling puts in Oscar. I've
been selling puts in Poet. I've been selling puts in Path. I've been selling puts in,
God, what else else some other things
and then just you know collecting the premium if the the stock moves in my direction and if it
doesn't taking an assignment at a lower cost basis but i'm doing it slow these are positions that i
i want to build up over time that i think you know have a a good opportunity to move in the
next few years um so i'm in no rush to get in these names.
Anybody there?
I don't know.
I was like, I thought you stopped.
I wasn't sure if I got kicked.
No, maybe. I think Evan's good. Let's like, I thought you stopped. I wasn't sure if I got kicked. No, maybe.
I think Evan's going to stop.
Let's imitate Evan.
Yeah, okay.
I'll let it go.
I did get kicked.
So you and Stocktalk are going to the NVIDIA event, huh?
We are going to the NVIDIA event.
I am excited.
Where's that at?
It is in San Jose.
San Jose.
Okay.
So it's not too far from New Mexico.
I'll also tell you that I had an exciting call today about possibly planning a little side event for Future Proof in September in Huntington Beach.
Funny you should say that.
I just got my credentials for that this week.
I'm excited.
I am excited.
But yeah, you want to
take a crack at what i would say next well no so what would happen is there'd be a long awkward
pause and then you'd go that's fair that's fair okay uh let's go over to logical logical
that's that's my ebbin right there right. I mean, he picked.
All right.
I guess I'll go next.
Very good.
Excellent day, obviously.
You want to see this.
Obviously, we're in a range.
So at the very minimum, the thing that you should expect is that at the lows of the range,
you know, it's hard to get bearish at the lows of the range, it's hard to get bearish at the lows of the range if basically this market has shown you
for the last five months
that it continues to chop up and down.
That probably means that if you start approaching
kind of the highs of the range,
it's probably when you want to be like,
okay, is this where I want to take
a little bit of exposure off?
Maybe.
I personally don't care anymore about trading this range.
I don't, I'm not going to waste my time and brain cells to do this.
I was on here yesterday.
I think I was mentioning that I went levered long yesterday for the first time in months.
And, you know, I think a lot of people would probably say that's dumb.
We could easily, you could easily gap down further
and that might be true
but I just said I'm done wasting time, energy
trying to go in, go out
I just said there's been a lot of carnage under the surface
the backdrop of the economic data is very bullish
we got services, it was a PMI services, and it was in expansionary territory today.
So the industrial data continues to show that the economy is booming.
And, you know, obviously there could be concerns around consumers, but this economy, and we
were talking with Cantor yesterday,
the economy is probably shifting a little bit more into like a CapEx economy, which means that, you know, GDP will still remain pretty strong, I would think. So wherever we have weakness,
like potentially the consumer slowing down, you're getting that strength somewhere else in
the economy. That's why the US economy is so resilient. And I'm not really seeing anything to be too fearful. I'm not seeing
anything fall off a cliff. I think bonds might have an issue, long duration bonds, given that
this expansionary environment and some of the economic data probably means that inflation
rears its ugly head again. So this market for years has been having this pendulum swing from, you know, weaker consumer to growth and reflation.
But whenever you're trying to balance those two things and you're going from one side to the other, I feel like that's probably how you actually achieve Goldilocks status.
I mean, it's been years and we're still probably wondering and scratching our heads
thinking did we you know are we going to have a soft landing and i think it you know that's kind
of what we've been seeing so far uh you know so you're kind of balancing both sides of the economy
as long as the economic data doesn't break down there's really no reason to be overly bearish
i think you can you know if anything anything, the year to date performance and all
the different sectors can kind of tell you that some things are working and other things aren't.
And the things that aren't working or haven't been working are the things that worked for the
last two years. So just like in any uptrend and something that, you know, maybe gets a little
extended, it's probably healthy to see some give back. It's probably healthy to see some consolidation. And some of those pullbacks can be significant, as we've
seen already. I'm not saying you have the green light to go get along a lot of those stocks. I
think a lot of them are totally crap, and they're very overvalued and i would never touch them even
after 50 declines it doesn't mean that they won't work from here i just think that if you you know
got burnt uh playing with fire i don't know why you'd probably try to rush back into some of those
names i think if anything we had a run in some of the speculative stuff um again it can run again
but i think this was a pretty good
lesson over the last couple of months of like, what happens when high beta and these really,
you know, overvalued, expensive growth stocks go vertical, they can give back a lot of those
gains overnight. And when you're feeling like really good about what's been going on in the
market, probably a good time to trim a little on the way up.
Oftentimes I trim when a stock is working for me and then it goes up even higher and I feel so
stupid, but then eventually it ends up crashing below where I sold or I trimmed. So, you know,
I would just say being sensible when everyone is, you know, that's that stupid Buffett line of
being greedy or whatever,
when others are fearful and the opposite. Like yesterday, I was greedy when others were fearful.
The market, you know, gapped down and I went and I added 30% long exposure.
I'm not really trimming it anything right now. I don't think that we're necessarily greedy after
one day or whatever. But, you know, I think generally if we end up going on
big runs like we saw into September and October of last year, that's a good lesson. If you've lost
money since then, it's probably, I know it's hard to hear, but if you plan to stick with stocks for
the long term, those lessons are very important and hopefully didn't cost you too much. But every
person, especially in their first cycle, is going to get absolutely cooked. So, you know, take that, you know, how it is,
you paid your financial tuition, try to learn about what stocks are, you know, I think it's
important to know fundamentals as well as technicals. We talk a lot about technicals
on here, but if you don't understand the business business you don't understand that a stock can grow like a business can grow the valuation that it's trading at I've always
used like the house analogy you know I will say I think I will say if you guys listen to stock
talk on here anytime he wants to deflect the question and not actually give it he'll he'll
point to the technical setup he'll say, the chart looks nice or whatever.
Whenever he doesn't actually look at it
and when he's on here actually excited about stuff,
he's digging into the theses more,
the fundamentals there.
And his type of fundamental analysis,
it'll definitely wish he was here for it.
But yeah, no, I think he agrees with it.
Can I actually also logical?
I'd like to ask Brian if you can ask logical
and Evan question here off of what he's been saying so far.
Say that again?
Ask a question that you think I would ask off of what he's been saying.
If you could.
Let's see.
What do you think about inflation?
Do you see any problems with inflation coming down the pike?
Is that something that's going to make me?
Wow.
Guy wants, doesn't want to, is like very very let me give the most broad question. I can't and I'll think it's heaven. I get it. I get it
All right, did you spend the whole space is throwing people under the bus and then it's right?
You can't take it. I
Know you are so much
Yeah, I don't know if I was the kidding I don't know if that was an actual question, but generally speaking, I'll take inflation over the opposite scenario any day of my life.
Opposite scenario being a slower, weaker economy that, you know, you don't want to see, you know, the opposite would be like pretty bad disinflation.
I think if we could do get inflation, that's typically good for stocks.
I know that's hard to believe. I mean, obviously it depends on why you're getting
the inflation. As long as the inflation is tame enough where it's not like you have to slam on
the brakes for the economy, it's overheating and you're going to have to go from a rate cutting
cycle to a rate hiking cycle. So there definitely is like a sweet spot for inflation. I think if,
you know, if your
inflation went back over 5% or something, you'd obviously be very bearish on stocks. But if we
get like a reacceleration on CPI from 2.6 to 3.2 or something, you know what I mean? Like there's
like a moderate increase in inflation. I think once you start getting to 4%, it's probably very tricky and it probably takes
most rate cuts off the table. And then you probably have potentially rate hikes on the table. So that
would be not great. Yeah. So I think, I think a manageable amount of reflation is okay. Especially
if we are going to like be full steam ahead into a growth expansionary economy.
That's generally where you're going to build a ton of wealth.
What's that?
Did we lose him?
I think we lost.
Can I still hear you?
Yeah, no, I don't hear Evan.
Yeah, I think he went out there.
But I think, yeah, so I won't spend too much time on inflation
because it's very speculative on what actually happens from here.
But just generally to say that, you know, economy is looking good.
The index has been pretty range bound.
It's been very resilient.
If you think about it, like with mags, you know, violating the 200 day stock market just
refuses to go down.
Iran war.
Sorry, we bid that up to green.
Like yesterday, you know, everything is imploding across the board.
You know, stocks almost finished green.
It's just typically when you have a weak market, it's a sell the rip market, which
means that like when you wake up in the morning it's a sell the rip market, which means that like when
you wake up in the morning, stocks go green on low volume. And by the end of the day, they go red.
That's red to green. They sell the rip. But lately, what we've actually been seeing is that dip buyers
are stepping in every single day. So when the market opens down and the bears can't push it
down any further, that to me feels like the downside is very limited
which is why I felt pretty comfortable like increasing my exposure I'm sitting at 120%
long right now um and look I would say don't try this at home unless you're comfortable in terms of
like getting overly aggressive but uh I think it just takes years of understanding and you also
have to be very nimble like if this thing just something new happens tomorrow, yeah, I'll manage my exposure for sure. But we got to
the lows of the range, lowest we've been. It kind of felt like an undercut and reclaim of that
hundred day, which is pretty bullish if you have a failed breakdown. So from a technical perspective,
makes sense because you have bottom of the range in a range bound market. But then also you look around the market and what do you have?
You have so many sectors doing really well.
And a lot of those sectors are probably due for consolidations and pullbacks like the RSP, the equal weighted S&P.
You think about like, you know, staples, industrials, materials, real estate.
All of these sectors have just been insane energy.
You know, it would be very normal in an uptrend to see some of these pull back to, you know,
logical support levels. And then, you know, that's going to add pressure to the market. But
market, but maybe some of those portfolio managers look at their portfolios and say, look,
maybe sometime, maybe some of those portfolio managers look at their portfolios and say, look,
I'm diversified. I'm an index hugger because I have staples and I have industrials and materials.
And those parts of my portfolio are up 15, 17, 20% in two months. That's more than I expected
out of these buckets. I can take a second to rebalance my portfolio at the end of February.
take a second to rebalance my portfolio at the end of February. And I can now I have that cash
and they could easily reallocate that cash back to other places like tech and growth,
which would put them back at balance. And so it's like you're selling something that's up 20%
to buy something that's down 20%. That seems like a very logical way to manage your portfolio.
So you're going to see some of that you're going to see profit taking on the way up for some of
these sectors, you're gonna see bids come in for some of the weaker sectors. So to me,
money is just rotating around the market. So it doesn't mean it doesn't seem overly bearish.
I mean, what's your alternative? Like, what are you going to do if you sell stocks? You're going
to sit in cash, like in an expansionary economic environment? I don't think so. That said,
I don't own big tech. I don't own financials. In my view,
those have been kind of the weakest spots. Consumer stocks I don't own. I don't know
how the consumer is going to hold up. So I'm not just saying buy anything. If anything,
this year has showed us that other things are what's working this year, not what has been
working this year. So I focus on biotechs and healthcares. I have a good chunk
of my portfolio in tech names, but they're not in big tech names. Big tech feels like it has a lack
of liquidity. They're the sacrifice in the market right now because they have very high capex.
And so their free cash flow is dwindling. You know, their free cash flow margins are like zero
or negative by now. And so they're sacrificing themselves to put hundreds of billions of dollars into the tech economy.
And that money is going to all these other players in the space.
So all those other players are going to see revenue growth.
One man's loss is another man's win.
So I would focus on if you like hardware, there's a lot of things to like infrastructure wise.
I know Stock Talk and I discuss you know, discuss synaptics.
Um, that's a pretty good name for edge computing. The IOT revenue is growing really fast, like 50%
year over year. Meanwhile, the stock trades at like 14 or 15 times gap earnings or, you know,
so it's, it's like, it's a really cheap stock. So, um, actually don't quote me. It might not
be gap earnings. It might be non-gap, but either way, it's really, really cheap for what kind of growth they're putting up.
There's a lot of these names.
Global Foundries, GFS.
That's another name I talk about.
That's more of like $20 billion market cap.
So it's a bit bigger.
But look at the chart on that thing.
GFS looks so good.
And it's playing in all the right areas.
There's a lot of biotechs that look really, really good.
It's just, you got to focus.
I think this is kind of the year where if you focus just on the things that everyone focused on for the last two years,
you're going to have a bad time.
And it's okay for others to get a, you know, swing at the bat.
And a lot of these other sectors that are winning this
year. Believe me, if you're like a lifelong industrials or materials, you know, investor,
your lifetime returns probably suck. So it's okay to let those guys have a win. It's okay.
They've been left for dead stocks. They probably deserve the re-rate. It's probably a better
environment for them right now. Long-term, it's not a viable strategy to just own those types of
names. But yeah, I mean, you can't just expect that growth, high beta, big tech every single
year forever is just going to win, you know?
Yep. There's just some fair points there. I see we have see we have urkel up here and i know we don't
get you up on the uh on the panel too much urkel i want to keep the conversation shift and obviously
everyone can feel free to jump back in on points but urkel um what are you seeing in this market i
know you're a little bit more of a technical trader here um so if you want to take it that
direction maybe you'll surprise me and this guy is uh full in deep research in some special sector we don't know
but how you doing sir i am doing well thanks for having me on um no surprises today um
definitely a technical trader i kind of consider myself a trend-based um technical swing trader
and um just really really hyper focused on charts and demand areas and reversal zones, something I alluded to when I hopped on last week.
And, you know, two, three weeks ago when I jumped on, I talked about how a lot of these high beta growth stocks had led the way down a couple weeks after the year started.
And the indices continued to hold and chop sideways and
remain resilient like logical said something I've posted a lot about on my timeline as well is
you know the the indices have continued to base and chop sideways and we had a ton of growth stocks
pull back significantly over the last four five weeks or so at various stages.
And I've been basically following a ton of these popular names
down to their 0.618 FIB support levels,
which is kind of the golden level for those who may or may not use FIBs.
And a high, what's the word I'm looking for?
A high probability solid risk reward reversal area to monitor on stocks that are generally in uptrends.
So when I was on here last week, I shared Palantir, which was at 120 to 135 zone.
That has reversed really nicely.
Talked about Robinhood at that that 70 to 77 dollar area that is
just trying to break above that level today nebius tonight i know robin hood's really moving off of
the um crypto right now but there's that event we'll see yeah and i think when i was on the
spaces and we talked about robin hood right after the earnings and we were talking about the numbers
and the crypto trading being down just some of the clues they had dropped in the earnings
call too, just, you know, with volumes already picking back up in January, future expansion into
at least two more international markets, I think they said this year, if I'm not mistaken. So
for me, it was an easy buy once it pulled back down into the 70s.
I've just added and sat on it. I've been more actively trading in the volatility
while accumulating some of my higher conviction plays, if you will. So a lot of stocks, again,
have reversed really nicely. ONDS, I think I shared on here at $8.90 recently.
on on DS I think I shared on here at $8.90 recently iron off $32 it's been basing off 40 now so
there's been a ton of opportunity and I know I think it was Brian earlier who said you know
it's a choppy sideways market and it's not typically fun for swing traders and it's not
as a swing trader but as a swing, you should also be looking at these high solid risk reward reversal areas and accept as a swing trader that if you are accum and you're watching your stock chop sideways,
but then you get days like today.
Palantir broke out on Monday, I think.
You've got Robinhood trying to break out today.
Nebius is bouncing back.
And I actually thought Nebius was quite strong recently.
And I think it was two Fridays in a row where it dropped off with CoreWeave news.
So for me, that was another one that was a bit of a kind of a high conviction,
easier dip buy and hold.
But you've got ASTS.
That was another stock.
$80 was the 0.618 FIB support level,
and it's reversed significantly, aided by some new deals and earnings.
Another one to keep on watch is Rocket Labs.
So Rocket Labs, the support level is from
61 to 68. And it too reported earnings and has been basing there. You can see there's almost a
double bottom forming off the 60s on the daily and weekly timeframe. So that's one to watch for
a more significant move up. But all of these opportunities have been there.
And, you know, I've cautioned to not be biased because it's very easy to get biased.
And what you risk doing is over trading.
If your thesis changes from day to day and you're jumping in for a swing and the stock is dropping because you bought it at the wrong spot and you're starting to sell for these little micro losses, you begin to really compound mistakes and compound losses. And at the end of it all,
once conditions improve, you're out of capital to really take advantage. So for me in this chop,
and I know some have said it's frustrating for me and my style because I'm so focused on technical levels.
It's been a pretty nice market to trade.
I've been accumulating a lot of those stocks, like I mentioned, off the 0.618 Fib support levels, while also day trading bounces.
Because in those ranges, and I know, again, with respect to ranges being boring, they're also very predictable.
And predictability in volatility is something you can exploit for financial gain.
And that's our job as short-term traders.
So for me, knowing like Logical stated about the bottom and the top of the ranges
and how you can generally expect bounces and drops,
when your stock lines up at a
major support level at the same time as the indices are near the bottom of the ranges
generally speaking you can catch some pretty nice bounces in those areas so i've just been
identifying a lot of those trades and keeping myself busy with shorter term trades and smaller wins. I'll take any 2% to 5% wins all day while I've been accumulating stocks for bigger swings.
And for me, again, it's been working out very nicely.
And we'll have to see eventually where this goes.
Because as a swing trader, it's really nice to just buy and hold.
And I think it was Brian who alluded to this, you know, post the tariff tantrum to just have things continue to trend higher.
And that may come if markets eventually break out.
But you also run the risk of markets breaking down instead of out and, you know, either losing on some bounces on your swings or eventually taking losses.
So for me, as long as I'm buying or accumulating off those key support levels,
generally speaking, they tend to hold up very well.
But additionally, if I do end up taking a loss or cutting a loss,
because I entered the stock near that support level,
I rarely take a loss bigger than two to five percent.
It just makes your entries very clear and it makes your risk management levels very clear too.
So, you know, kind of something I stress to my members all the time is always being in control
of every single trade, not just blindly buying and blindly selling, but making informed decisions
based on key demand levels and then
marrying those charts and those key demand levels with broad market trend and where the markets are
at. So yeah, for me, it's this environment. I don't mind it one bit. It's quite conducive to
my trading style. But because I also work full time, I do prefer a market that's just trending up and I can just buy and kind of, you know, ride it all the way up.
But that's just not reality.
So as we work our way through all of this, still accumulating big dips, day trading in and around it.
I've got some cash left over.
I'm not fully exposed yet and I'd like to buy more.
And just keeping my eye on those opportunities as as things
develop interesting interesting a little bit of a different take i appreciate it thank you mr urkel
always good we can come on the show we're about 15 minutes 14 minutes from the market being done
the market close we got a bunch of earnings coming up after that.
Broadcom is the big one for the day.
AVGO, what's the market cap on this one?
I know it's one of the largest.
We have a $1.5 trillion company about to be reporting earnings today after the close.
Montev, I see you down below.
I'd be curious your take on that one.
Mr. Wolfie, I see you join us up here what's up dude that's up what's up i know you heard part of urkel's
thoughts there he's always great on the technical take there was some interesting uh stuff within
there if there's any points you wanted to double tap into but broadcom earnings after the close
today also have an octa aviva american eagle i know
you've uh played around that one as the city can is there you go so i'm not leaving i'm not leaving
i'm not i wasn't gonna say the curse word but i don't know all right what's up wolfie
not much man where do you want me to go any of those ones are more interesting for you i mean
broadcom earnings coming up after the close.
If we wanted to play a retention game, that's where we'd go.
Honeywell, let's just say something good about the stock that I've been talking about.
One of the ones that have been going well, actually.
Honeywell has their...
They announced they're going to do the spinoff in Q3.
It was the Aerospace Division.
This might have been two days ago at this point.
No, yesterday.
Third.
Oh, yesterday. There we go.'s it's been performing pretty well i mean uh this is gonna
be a massive mover i don't know how much the move is already in it but no 26 already this year come
on so i i i'm up it's one of my picks for the year i told you when when i bought it um told
you that i'm on Team Honeywell.
We're up, yeah, 26% on the year.
I think I'm up a little less than that.
I'm up like 23 or something like that.
But, yeah, no, they also have a meeting, an investor day in June.
So I don't know how much of the move is already priced in,
but there is a potential that, you know,
on the back of some consolidation or on the back of some sideways action
that you get another leg higher into June, but we're a ways away from there.
But for as far as Broadcom is concerned, I bought AMD today.
I bought it this morning.
I thought the setup technically was good.
It's been beaten up
it sold off to effectively the 200 day almost to the penny uh it was like 180 what's it 187 81 or like a wedge pattern setup.
So I like the setup about that one.
Give me one second.
I mean, it's like one of those multiple choice games
where it's like, what is happening there in the background?
Is it A?
No, no, no.
Did an Amazon pack just get arrived? No, nothing. Was it B, Is it A? No, no, no. Did the Amazon pack
just get arrived? Was it B?
A phone call? No, I'm kidding. Sorry. Sometimes you
take the bit too far. I had to cough.
Ah, okay. Sometimes.
Whoa, Brian Lund.
There was a little bit of like,
you know, we're going to joke around here and Guy
rammed open the
door. I respect it. Alright, Wolfie, keep you going. Sorry. No, we're good. No, here and guy rammed open the door i respect it all right wolfie keep
you on sorry no we're good um no so i i bought amd today on the back of that but i told you the
last last time i was like you know uh the last couple weeks i've been i've been saying about
how the software names have a little bit of not a little bit have been a lot extended talked about
uh going along some of them that that's worked out it's great i think
this is the kind of year you're gonna have you're gonna have a lot of uh digestion periods you're
gonna a lot of uh moments where you have these extreme sell-offs into uh key points um it's
gonna be a lot of headline chop i want to there's a tweet i wish i was trying to pull it before i
got up i can't find it right now but, during the dotcom, the market gave back however much it gave back.
But during that entire sell-off, you had a situation where the advanced decline line continued to make highs during that entire period.
continue to make highs during that entire period. And so I think it's like a really important thing
to kind of point to that, you know, as if and when you get these moments where the concentration
risk of the MAG-7 kind of erodes and people start to get into a more of a broad based situation,
you're going to see a lot of conflicting uh metrics and a lot of conflicting conflicting
technical things uh that's one of them um and so i i i think like it's important to kind of measure
stocks independently like on on the back of the dispersion aspect because we've got a lot of that
like another step that i talked about um earlier in the uh uh earlier last week was that
uh the percent of stocks that have made 10 moves independent has been pretty aggressive and then
you take a look at the market's kind of gone nowhere for like three months so um i think it's
important to pay attention to individual moves i think it's important to pay sector rotation type
moves so for the better part of three months, you know, uh, energy has been
performing really well. Um, it's been one of the things that I've, I've fortunately been a part of,
but I do think that when you start to get like headlines, like the headlines we got in the last
couple of days, and then you start to get, you know, these energy moves, um, get slimmer and
slimmer and narrower and narrower and smaller and smaller.
Like that's a towel of like possible inflection point.
You don't want to be chasing into some of this stuff, you know, as you get some of these
major headline events.
I think it's like, you know, when they're effectively left for dead and you see headlines
and it doesn't move the stock to the downside.
That's kind of like where I like to start picking. At the very least, it's where I like to sell premium. That's a thing that I talked
about on your space with like CrowdStrike, for example, pretty much near the lows. But it's not
about being near the lows. It's about like trying to figure out, you know, where do I put the chips
in my favor? And the more times that you could do that over a long period of time,
the better results you're going to have. The second thing is I've talked about
using the VIX on a three to six month basis. Anytime we get to like these extreme upper end
of the ranges, I like to just put on some protection. That stuff hasn't worked for the better part of several years. But I think this is one of those years where that sort of
thing is going to work. It's like having solid brakes on a car. You could drive a race car for
sure, but you might not need the brakes as much if you're on a racetrack, but anytime conditions warrant you needing them, you should
have them. So it's kind of like a good way to focus on it. And I think the last part is,
again, with some of these conflicting messages, as things get narrower, and as people start to look
for, you know, more opportunities, some of the traditional hedges or the traditional things
that move in opposite of the market may at times start to move in conjunction. And so an example
of that earlier in the year was a gold silver. I think recently an example of that has been oil
to some extent, where, you know, if you get like, you know, the Iran war headline,
generally that spikes oil names, but you had this weird situation.
It's not that weird, but like just a quote-unquote weird situation
where you had the USO up or like Brent up,
but then you had some of these names sell off intraday.
I don't think that's a strange phenomenon.
I think that's what happens when people start to narrow into momentum. And when you get that pushing into momentum, they start to trade
with the same type of risk basket as regular risk. And that's kind of one of those things that you
need to be cognizant of, especially in this environment. But then lastly, I think valuations will matter
and free cash flow matters more. There's going to be some sort of, not is going to be, there is
some sort of premium assigned to, I'm blanking on the word, but sometimes there's these intrinsic value.
That's where I'm looking for.
There's this intrinsic value premium on some of these stocks that have been traditionally boring names.
And still some of them traded at a discount to the overall market and discount to some of these tech names.
are getting a discount to some of these tech names.
I believe that at some point, some of these names will re-rate
and they will trade at a premium to the other names that will trade at a discount.
And I think the money, the delta to be made is on that come up.
When you do see some of these boring business names start to get really, really lofty.
So an example recently would have been like the XLP was trading at a more expensive premium
than some of these MAG7 names.
I think the one that went around was Walmart was trading at a more expensive valuation
than Amazon.
Those types of things, they're not necessarily like, oh, hit the cash register, go short everything.
But they are like inflection points to take note of where you're like, OK, maybe maybe something in the short term is kind of got ahead of itself.
And so I think, you know, if you're paying attention to those sorts of things and you're like in the weeds on those sorts of things, like you will be in a situation where something could work out for you.
like you you will um be in a situation where something could work out for you um but outside
of that like i'm just going like day to day um you know some some some days i go without doing
anything um and then and then when things present themselves opportunities present themselves
some days i'm taking like five five to seven trades a day so but i'll stop there and have
you answer your questions.
No, I appreciate you.
I apologize.
Just the timing.
We're getting close to the market being done for the day here.
I want to talk a little bit about Broadcom before we get into some of the earnings craziness.
You guys should make sure you're following all the speakers up here, though.
They're all fantastic.
We'll improve your experience on this app.
Truth is, honestly, if you don't like them, you can just unfollow them later.
Spaces is a great way to just find people. And a lot of these people are also hosting their space of their own so i'm sure
you came in here and found yourself in some sort of live content that wolf page hosts so much live
content all day every day uh both wolves um but everyone's up here doing their grind shout out to
that shout wolf defense but uh montev if i could bring it over to you always appreciate it when up here doing their grind. Shout out to that. Shout out Wolf Defense. But Montev, if I
could bring it over to you,
always appreciate it when you're here.
It was great to see you join us up here.
If you could tell me a little bit about Broadcom earnings.
4.15pm Eastern,
the 9th largest,
10th largest company in the world,
the 8th largest American company
in the world.
Amalist said American company in the world. I almost said American company in the world.
I did stop myself, though, so I think it counts for something.
Broadcom earnings after the close, 4.15 p.m. Eastern.
Can you tell me a little more?
Well, look, it's well-priced.
It's not, I mean, if you look at forward earnings numbers, it's priced about a 30 multiple.
That is roughly going to be in line with what NVIDIA is priced at.
They have 67% margin that they've guided.
My guess is that's going to start ticking up closer to 70, and that would be very positive.
For the coming year, right, fiscal 26, the expectation is somewhere about over $8 midpoint.
My guess is they are going to produce more than $10, right?
The high estimate is $9.45. I think they're going to produce more than $10, right? The high estimate is 945.
I think they're going to blow that out.
I think they're going to go well over $10.
So you're looking at a forward estimate, really, if my assumption turns out right.
You're looking at a forward estimate, you know, in the 27 $28 times range. That would make them
very, very, very reasonably priced.
It's probably going to run up on that. If the margin guide
is higher than the $67,
which I think it will be easily, then you're probably
looking at a nice run here. I don't know what the expected move is.
I'll let your team come up with that.
I'm sure we're going to hear that or probably heard that.
I didn't catch it.
All right, Sniper, hit it.
When I point at you, you say it.
Hold on, hold on, hold on.
Let me just, I'll land it right here.
So the only thing I'm interested is if they provide any clarity on uh on on memory
and the you know contractually who's taking the hit they might not directly talk about it
but i want to know if they are on the hook for anything or is it all on uh on google to you know
to pay for the additional cost of memory because of contract whatever right
so if they guide that 67 down or miss that would probably be the reason for it anyway i'll land it
there we'll go from there no no i want you to keep going i just thought uh stock sniper could
come in and give you that what is the implied by all means i want to hear it too um yeah i'm sorry
i jumped a little bit when you said that. I was not ready. You like it?
Have you guys ever seen the Moneyball movie?
The market did just close there.
Monitim, remind me.
Anytime we get you speaking at the close, I love the bell in the background.
Big time.
We're looking at a $19.95 move on AVGO or 6.28%.
Interesting.
How does that compare to the past?
Yeah.
So last quarter we only saw a 5.6% implied move,
but yet that was $22.75 because we were coming into it on a slightly
different setup than we're coming in now.
All right.
Monitiv, anything else at Broadcom that is the big one?
A lot of people are watching it.
So not so much the press release, but I'm going to be listening to the call and I'm going to be trying to read between the lines there.
So it's possible that it's all on Google and they take the hit from memory price increase and they pay for the additional.
For the additional, if that's not the case, then we're going to see that 67% EBITDA margin
guide change.
If that changes down, then you know that they're splitting the responsibility for that.
If it changes up, then more than likely, it's Google that's taking the brunt of it.
the brunt of it.
And either way, you know, there's a trade there, right?
And either way, there's a trade there.
So, but I do expect them to handily beat the rest of the numbers.
I did see Okta just reported.
What are we doing?
And one of the things on Honeywell, ADHD, and I had it up, SOLS.
They did spin that out already.
I'm now going to switch back to talking about
Okta. Sometimes I know that could be a lot for people. Okta did come in and beat on EPS and beat
on revenue. 90 cents, well, and beat expectations of 85 cents, revenue of 761 million, beating
expectations of 749 million. Okta stock is initially moving moving down but it's a little all over the place right now
we'll see it's I see it down by 1% in after hours but yeah it might be a little bit more of a move
they're down by point eight to nine to be exact I'm seeing a little forward guidance here said
forward guidance looks slightly below expectations 85 cents next quarter it looks like what they got it for um interesting i just got a i got a text that was a weird combo right there
weevil earnings are out yeah we'd be off weevil 165.19 million revenue versus 161.35 million
expected eps 0.04 verse four cents expected EPS came in line
that's a fraction of Robin Hood I mean yeah this octa keeps going down we're
below 69 now you read the numbers right I did. I did on Octa.
Look, Hawk 10 is not the flashy kind of CEO.
He runs a tight ship.
He squeezes any savings that can be had. So if anybody is going to manage through this crazy memory pricing cycle,
I would put my bets on Hot 10.
Sorry, I was posting something around Palantir.
I just saw a post around Palantir,
and they were kind of bragging about how their products are being...
Well, okay, bragging is a strong word.
They were just talking about how their products are being used,
apparently, in the Iran war.
I'm looking towards forward guidance.
Monotiv, it is the same theme.
The full year guidance for them is above expectations
so next quarter guidance slightly below next year full year guidance is slightly above what
wall street was expecting and we've seen a lot of that right across the board it's it's just that
you know they're struggling to get through you know immediate term uh immediate turmoil for whatever different reasons.
And it's been a different reason for the last couple of quarters.
But they still have, you know, great outlook and they are getting, you know, solid data
back from their customers.
So if you look at, you know, typical SaaS metrics, those are all still pretty strong,
right?
The net retention rates are strong.
So I have to dig in.
I've not looked at their numbers.
So it stands to reason that they're more confident of full-year numbers than, you know, immediate quarter numbers.
That is, you know, assuming that you trust them and, you know, they're not hedging and saying,
you know what, whatever it is bad right now,
we'll make it up later in the day, right?
So I trust them for the most part
or at least give them the benefit of doubt.
Viva just reported earnings,
seen an initial spike there.
Yeah, what did Righetti do?
Stock is down 4%, but yeah, what did Righetti do stock is down four percent but yeah what did righetti say not much
um revenue came in at 1.1.86 million expected 2.33 million uh eps minus three cents expected
minus three cents here here's the question here's my question here how do they make that revenue
you know what does righetti sell at this point in time? Wondering the same.
They probably have their cash balance and bonds.
I don't know.
Let's look at the question.
Your Viva numbers, 835.95 million revenue.
Expected 810.95 million.
EPS, $2.06.
Expected $1.94.
American Eagle.
Revenue coming in.
$1.76 billion.
Expected $1.74 billion.
EPS in at $0.84.
Expected EPS, $0.71.
The strong
American Eagle earnings continue.
Greatest company in stock is up
8% in after hours
right now.
Greatest company thing.
874.81
million revenue for Cracker Barrel.
Expected
864.35 million.
EPS for Cracker Barrel 25 cents.64.35 million. EPS for Cracker Barrel, $0.25.
Expected EPS, minus $0.30.
No, I don't think American Eagle is the greatest company.
I was just joking around.
But I love tracking them.
I'm not going to lie.
Yeah, we all know it's Walmart.
He just likes watching Sidney Sweeney.
That's this guy.
Classic.
That's the guy with the goggles on.
Best company in america we could you know it's definitely gonna be one of the mag seven you know we we have a good idea of what those goggles are
or watching um we're never mind false alarm yeah uh by the way broadcom should be out at
4 15 p.m eastern for anyone who wants to i am very
curious on what everyone thinks broadcom uh is gonna do and say so can you guys do me a favor
uh raymond says regetti has an only fans account that's what he said uh not me um can you guys let
me know down below in the comment section in the bottom right of your screen a purple 12
how you guys think broadcom earnings are gonna go using just one word one word super
simple I'll read them out on there a couple of them in a second but I am
curious how you think Broadcom's earnings will go how you think the stock
will do using just one word here AVGO should be out in about seven minutes About 7 minutes. Okta down just still 1% again.
What did Weeble end up moving?
Weeble is up to 3%.
It's not the most volatile of days I have seen.
Shout out Ryan.
Come in and join us back here.
He's going to land the ship on this one for the second half of the spaces.
Great guy.
Wonderful guy.
Top class beard.
He can work on the mustache.
Maybe he can get that little curly thingy on the side.
You good?
I can't hear you if you're talking.
No. Hey.
Viva. Yeah, you said beat.
Yeah.
Did anyone put any one words we did get a couple
Phineas
it said outstanding
Raleigh said three words
so I'm not going to read it out
Liz said boom
Turkey McNugget said down
Ben said Ligma
and then Bella said Bulls said boom. Turkey McNuggets said down. Ben said Ligma.
And then Bella said Bulls.
Depressed Lakers fan.
Interesting.
Said stagnant.
You hear me alright?
You guys got some interesting names.
Raymond said Avgo. Yes, I can hear you. What's up?
I just got to call him. Make sure I didn't get
rugged. Very good.
You are good.
In this in-between earnings time,
I don't really want to pass it around for conversations
coming out of this.
Pretty much everyone has spoken up here, by the way.
Emp at this point.
So you're good to talk through whatever
once we get past this but
we do have 5-6 minutes until
Broadcom earnings
should be interesting
Monitive are you like
where does Broadcom actually kind of
rate an
area of interest for you is it a stock you spent
a little time knowing and care about?
Or is it one, I don't know, maybe you've owned before?
Is it, where does it kind of sit in the thought process?
Did you work there?
Did you work there?
No, but...
What about an Avgo?
I've always, look, it's a very tightly managed ship.
It's grown primarily through acquisitions rather than, you know, internally
generated business. So they've been, and they're
really good at that. They're really good at buying business, taking out a lot of the
fluff, cutting back to only the core programs,
cutting back costs and, you know, and improving margins. They've done that
time and again for a very long time now.
And Haktan and his team really shine in bringing out
regrowing businesses that have slowed down.
So it's a great business.
I missed the run-up.
I've had it in previous runs. I have not this time around. And I missed the run-up. I've had it in previous runs.
I have not this time around.
And I missed it again.
I should have bought it a couple of weeks ago.
But it is what it is.
Like I said, for me, this is more a read-through into what's going on in the memory market
and how Google's volume is picking up in TPU, right?
So primarily a lot of their business is going to come from that.
So it'll be a good read-through on that.
I'd be really shocked if they are on the hook for much of it, right?
My guess is they're going to have to split the...
or Google's going to have to take some of the hit. So it'll be interesting to see what happens to that margin guide.
So that's, that's my primary interest. If for some reason it does sell off, I will buy.
But, but right now I don't have a position. It's just a very strong curiosity to know what,
what is happening, what the story is.
What are some of the most direct movers off of this?
Obviously, it kind of goes on what they're going to say on this.
And again, I'm sure it's pretty much most of the semiconductor sector.
And there's parts of it.
But are there other stocks you're looking at more specifically
that like are well known to move off of broadcom earnings sorry yeah so i think the most interesting
one could be if if we do a if we do see a a major spike in their uh in their revenues
and a pullback in their margins that is to, to me, very positive for Micron's earnings two weeks away, right, or a week and a half away.
Because I'm going to guess here, I do not know, I in the additional memory that is not contracted that Google found out that they need because their volumes are spiking up for TPU demand.
So if that's going to Micron, and I'm guessing that because you know Nvidia's largest
suppliers are Hynex and Samsung. Nvidia still said that they're Micron's
biggest customer somewhere along the line I saw that but but my guess is is
that's going to be very positive for for for Micron. So that's a read-through I'm interested in.
Outside of that, you know,
obviously TSM is going to benefit if the volumes pick up.
What else?
That's really all I can think of.
Yeah, maybe some spillover.
If they talk about capacity issues,
maybe there's some spillover into demand for
Marvel picking up.
We do have...
Also very good time in there for the record.
I was going to say 35 seconds. I do want to ask
Monitiv about some of those pieces
on the constraint side of things but
see what these earnings look like first.
See what these earnings look like first.
Yeah, let's go first.
Applied move is what again, percentage-wise, Sniper?
I almost said 7.7%.
5.98% off the top of my head.
I just stepped away.
So between 6% to 7%.
Yeah, that's a good midpoint.
We were calculating it this afternoon on the stream.
It was around 7-something. But it's been compressed so tightly in this price
range it wouldn't surprise me to see it straight down his reaction point to
hold on I'll read it to you since I hear it or if somebody else gets it I still
have not quite seen even the printout. Down one.
Bouncing.
All right, here we go.
Up, up one, up one.
Turn it around.
ABGO earnings.
316 and reverse it.
19.31 billion revenue
versus 19.14 billion expected revenue.
EPS in at $2.05.
Expected to be $2.02.
Double beat for ABGO.
Double beat. Now it's moving lower again.
We're all over the place.
That's not a huge beat.
It's a 1% beat on top and bottom.
EPS is up 20%
year over year.
Is 22 billion?
Give me the gross margin number.
Let's start there.
Gross margin.
By the way, it's not posted yet.
So that's why.
It's in their website thing.
Is it?
I don't see it.
It's not giving me the percentage here.
You know, I'll tell you the wrong thing.
$10 billion buyback.
$0.cent quarterly dividend.
Guides Q2 revenue
22 versus 20.
Sees AI.
Is that dividend increased?
They increased the Q2 rev guide by 2 billion.
20 to 22. Well, 1.5.
20.5 to 22.
I'm looking for the deeper. People are pulling out all the information.
So, semiconductor solutions is12.5 billion versus $8.2 billion in Q1 of 25.
So it is now 65% of the business.
Infrastructure software is 35.
I'm surprised the stock isn't higher.
Broadcom sees Q2 sales. Next quarter sales, $22 billion. Wall Street expected $35. I'm surprised the stock isn't higher. Broadcom sees Q2 sales, next quarter
sales $22 billion, Wall Street expected
$20.7.
The growth just isn't that strong.
EPS quarter over quarter is up 5%,
revenue is up 7%. Year over year
it's at 28%.
It's a
68% gross
margin.
$10 billion share buyback.
I mean, is this just a story of it's too expensive?
I still have not necessarily seen this gross margin percentage.
If someone wants to comment down below.
I see this, Monit.
Adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately 68% of projected revenue.
Yeah.
Yeah, that's for next quarter.'s still very good right i mean look
the kind of margin and the size of business they have to keep that margins
it's pretty darn darn good eight billion free cash flow 41 of revenue yeah listen it looks like early on we the uh call buyers and sellers or call buyers and put
buyers are taking l's still better than the other option sellers winner better than the 10 20 down
we've seen from a lot of names yeah i don't see this i don't see these numbers as moving at six
percent i think we are going to be stuck here,
and they're going to burn the premium both sides.
Record strength in AI semiconductor solutions.
AI revenue of $8.4 billion,
about 106% year over year.
Expect that AI semiconductor revenue to be $10.7 billion in Q2.
Consolidated revenue grew 29% year over year to a record 19.3.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 30% year-over-year.
Damn, $8.4 billion this quarter? $10.7 billion
next quarter? I mean, that's pretty quarter-over-quarter
growth. I mean, that's pretty fast. What is that?
Here's the CEO. Consistent with our commitment to return
excess cash to shareholders, we returned $10.9 billion
in the first quarter through $3.1 billion of cash dividends
and $7.8 billion of stock repurchases.
Broadcom just guided for its
semiconductor division to grow
by 27% quarter over quarter.
I mean, maybe that could just be a cyclical thing.
Honestly, I don't know.
But, I mean, I guess I could actually look.
Let's see if my...
I do have some places that break it down.
I don't know if they have it by semiconductor revenue.
Handy-dandy.
Just clay-eye.
My dog's going a little crazy.
What's up, Stock Talk?
What's up, what's up?
How are you guys?
Good, good.
Doing well.
He made a good time for these Broadcom earnings, but yeah, it was a good day.
Green.
All I'm saying is the days that I was here, green, Monday and Wednesday, the day that
I was not here, that Emp was just Emp.
I don't know, man.
You're the positive owner.
I will be back tomorrow, if anyone wants to know, if you want to see how you guys should
What happened last week then?
close the day.
Listen, vibes change.
Don't, don't, you know,
whatever, I don't have a good answer for this.
I'm just going to say whatever time frame fits my argument
is the one I'm going to use.
Well, I'm just going to say it looked like we bottomed yesterday
when I came in.
That's true.
That is true.
IGV bottomed yesterday when he came in,
and then today you have upside moves.
I don't know.
One of you guys is the lucky nugget.
All right, you know what?
Me and the Emperor, the magic combo,
brought to you guys here live on Spaces.
And this is what it takes to win as a great team.
Oh, there we go. That's what I think the answer is.
All right.
I heard that pretty well, actually did that how did you do that was it just like blaring through your thing no i just
have a soundboard but does it play through your mic actually oh i'm connected on my account so yes
that's pretty cool actually yeah we're gonna be able to play the live earnings calls what's your
favorite sound give me give me your favorite sound. Every time you talk, I like to do this.
All right.
All right.
We won't use that one again.
Guy takes it and puts it against me.
All right.
Broadcom stock is down by 0.2%.
It's just hanging out here around even 5 p.m. Eastern is what time that earnings call is.
Anyone curious, 5 p.m. Eastern is what time that earnings call is. Anyone curious, 5 p.m. Eastern is what time that conference call?
If you guys are really watching this one, you should wait until that comes out.
There's really nothing in these numbers to move it up or down huge.
It's not blowout in any sense.
It's not negative in any sense.
So we're going to chop here until we hear Hot 10.
Trump was hosting a roundtable.
Just to confirm, though, Monitive,
semiconductor solutions division for them is AI semiconductor revenue?
Yeah, that's all their custom silicon that they design
and integrate and build for everybody.
What were you going to say, Ryan?
I was going to say that Trump was hosting that roundtable
with representatives from all the companies talking about the power.
And right now there's a headline, Meta is even saying
the data center power and water costs will not be passed to consumers.
So they're really tackling this data center thing right now
and trying to reassure the public that they're not going to be putting the bill on these subsidized electric bills.
Interesting. Yeah, I did see that going around. Big if true. Great statements, big words. I like actions, but hey, we'll see.
Big words.
I like actions.
But hey, we'll see.
I feel like it's going to get harder and harder
to avoid being in a place where there's a data center.
I mean, I'm sure they're going to cluster
their own areas of cheaper electricity sources.
But maybe they bring that to themselves.
What's up, Stock Talk?
Was there anything standing out in in the market today any cavities
um i think cavities no no just a regular checkup of the dentist that's why i wasn't here um
but no i i did think uh nebius had a great catalyst this morning that's obviously one
of my older legacy positions but they had a great catalyst this morning they got approval for their
data center uh 1.2 gigawatt data center in independence missouri um it was quite a battle with the people the locals over there to get that
approved and it did get approved and there have been a lot of areas where that hasn't happened um
but that was pretty good news for them that stock was up 12 or 13 on that today
if they can get that built on time that'll make them a real category player
in that department. But no, outside of that, there was not too much news. I talked about
my new small cap pick today on Equity Edge, which is Mitek Systems, MITK. I picked that up last week.
We covered it today on the show with amit i don't know if i've
talked about that with you guys on stocks on spaces yet but um that's a really interesting
one to me i think the fraud and identity um solution segment is pretty bare bones on the
public markets in terms of looking for pure play opportunities. And I think that's about as close as you'll get to a pure play opportunity
where it's a weighted part of the business.
So, yeah, if you guys are interested in that, that thesis is in Discord.
You can go read it if you're in the community.
If not, you can go listen to the Equity Edge episode I did with Ahmed earlier today.
I retweeted it. You can go listen to the thesis there.
I explained it very simply in about 10 minutes.
So you can go listen to that recording as well.
That's on my page if you are interested in that sort of stuff.
But outside of that, no, not too much.
Most of the portfolio positions were green today.
There were a couple red, but most were green today.
So, yeah, good day.
Can't complain.
Index structure not quite repaired yet, but it was a nice bounce today.
Q's came up above 610, retook the 921 EMAs,
which is nice to see what's still below the 100-day and the 50-day.
Spy had a stick-save candle of the 100-day today,
which was important.
I noted that yesterday that we needed to see bulls step up.
They did today, but still failed to recapture
the 9 and 21 EMAs on Spy and the 50-day.
So not quite out of the woods yet,
but it was a nice candle in the markets today
to stabilize the selling.
You will need to see a little bit more of a bid, though,
to push us above those levels, in my view,
in order to get really confident again about the trend.
And even more than that, not just retaking the 50-day of the 921 EMAs,
we really need to take out the highs.
I mean, we had for about, what is this, February 11th through december basically from end of december through
mid-february we had four attempts to break past 700 and they all failed and the chop since then
has been even more volatile than the chop prior to that so i think you need to see clearance above all-time highs on SPY to really get back into the trending sort of mentality.
And you need to see the same thing on the Qs, in my view, except the Qs have a lot more work to do in terms of ground they need to cover.
So I remain focused on that.
Again, me and Cantra sort of went back and forth about this yesterday, but I stand by my belief that that's where all the liquidity is and that's where the important trade is.
I'm willing to start throwing more darts out and getting long on more positions.
I've been sort of quiet in terms of my activity over the last few weeks.
quiet in terms of my activity over the last few weeks portfolio is still doing well overall but
i've been quiet in terms of my um activity i will pick that activity up if markets can resolve
higher above those moving averages again i'll feel confident to do that now um i think it's
going to take a catalyst maybe that catalyst is just further news about the war that we got today, where this morning
there was a report that the Iranians reset the CIA and the Iranians denied that, but
the market rallied anyway.
Really, if you look at the point, the futures rallied this morning.
It was basically right when that news came out.
So I imagine that had something to do with it.
The market wants to i
think get the impression that this conflict will be more easily resolved than it's then is being
presented and if the market can get that impression i think that um it'll be sort of an overhang
lifted moment and you know we can resume higher but yeah i'm waiting for index structure bottom
line to improve on the major indexes.
That can happen by Friday, easily.
You don't have much more ground to cover.
At what point, though, the question is, when I look left.
We've had very different environments doing this show for a couple of years.
I look left. It's a lot of sideways.
How far are you looking left? i just went on the one year and you but you can kind of see on the last
five six months three months it's flat five six months is a sideways it's a chop range
my question here is where did where does this start to turn in from hey we're obviously this
is the bottom end of the range time to buy it and is it like a play towards the top of range is it a a play for a breakout like that's kind of what i'm at like i think if you
don't take out the highs you're just going to keep getting chopped yeah i think if you don't
take out all the time you're going to keep getting chopped like that's a pretty straightforward
opinion and enough people have probably been chopped that they don't want to participate
until that happens exactly exactly yeah and there's a lot of people like
there's a lot of bagged buyers at a lot of price points now on popular names you know especially
people who chased and so there's going to be resistance to the upside too um there's no way
we get a new hype without software yeah i agree with that completely i think that's part of why yesterday when you got sort of bottoming action in software,
you had relative strength in IGV yesterday and in crypto,
which are the two sectors that have been beat down the hardest in this momentum sell-off, right?
Crypto seemed like it bottomed yesterday in the action.
You had relative strength versus the other momentum-related indexes.
There were some headlines around that Clarity Act thing, which maybe was it.
Yeah, I mean, look,
the price action is more important than the catalyst.
There's not always a catalyst,
but there's often a catalyst to drive
relative outperformance or a bottoming or whatever.
But the point is that the two weakest,
most concerning areas of the market,
software and crypto,
both had relative
outperformance yesterday. And that led to a broader rally today where those assets continued to
perform. Now, that's a good sign. It's not like throw caution to the wind, but it is a good sign.
Now, in spite of that, the buying stopped today in SP and queues at a very precarious level,
right? We're still tucked below the 50 day and the hundred day on the queues. And we're still
tucked below the 50 day on spy. So nice signs of buying, but it's not clear in spying. It's not
like you've cleared, you know, you're, you're out of the woods. You're not yet. So you don't need much more action to get there is the point that I'm making.
You just need a couple more days like this, and that could happen very easily.
If tomorrow and Friday are green, boom, index structure looks a lot better than it did four days ago.
And that's how quickly things can change.
This is also why your bias has to stay fluid in volatile markets.
And even though markets haven't really been choppy
for most of this bull cycle, right, the last couple months is the biggest chop period we've
seen for the last five years in terms of tightness of range. This is actually the tightest range the
S&P 500 has ever opened at, I think. Somebody was sharing stats about that this morning.
The tightest one and a half or two month range. I can't remember what the horizon they used was, but it's one of the tightest ranges we've ever seen. And so this is not traditionally the MO of this
bull market or has not been the MO of this bull market chop. It's been a trending market for the
most part. But when you hit these moments of chop, you have to ask yourself, is there enough weight
of evidence to justify the chop? I think you could easily make that argument right now. And also, when the index structure is repaired, that's how you know when you're out of the chop.
Because weak index structure, it lends itself to choppy price action.
When you have these down-sloping 921 EMAs against price, you have these violent recoveries and then violent rejections.
That lends itself
to chop in individual stocks as well.
And that's what we've seen.
And so I think in order to feel confident putting the bid down in size, you need to
see clearance and you need to see the indexes resume their uptrends.
And we're not quite there yet.
So good sign, take it one step at a time,
kind of, I think, in this kind of environment.
I don't think you get ahead of yourself in this kind of environment
and just like call bottoms at a whim.
I think you take it gradually and progressively
and you say, okay, look,
it's structure's a little bit better here.
You know, maybe I can start putting some more size
on some existing positions.
And then as structure improves,
you can maybe start throwing some long side darts at new positions.
And then as structure improves a little bit more, you can upsize those new positions.
That's sort of how you have to take the markets in this kind of environment.
You have to take them incrementally.
In my opinion, I think that's the best way to do it.
Now, some people are very much ready to flip their bias at a moment's notice. They see a market gapped up in the morning. They're ready to flip their bias, you know, at a moment's notice.
They see a market gapped up in the morning.
They're ready to flip their bias right away.
They're buying stocks.
They see a market gap down.
They're ready to flip their bias right away.
They're selling stocks.
I don't do that.
That's like asking for gray hairs.
It's also asking to endure wash sales and unnecessary short-term losses and all that stuff.
So I try not to do that.
I try to stay balanced on the stocks I like and hold them through as much volatility as possible.
Obviously, there are rules through which I won't hold through.
But that, I think, has served me pretty well in this market.
It's part of why I've been able to defend my performance,
because I've had a lot of positions that have endured drawdowns too, right?
Like I've had a lot of positions
that are off a lot from the highs,
but the reason my performance has held up so well
is because of my ability to manage those positions
during the chop and trim contracts where necessary,
you know, trim shares where necessary occasionally,
add shares where necessary.
That, the nuance of management is what has kept my performance up for this year.
So that's the important part.
That's the important thing to do, I think, during moments of chop
where you don't just be an innocent bystander.
Otherwise, your performance is going to be a volatile nightmare.
Just up, down, up, down, up, down.
So if you want to defend your gains in a market
environment like this you do have to be somewhat conscious of active management and so um i think
paying attention to index structure is a big ally of yours if you're doing that
and if i could uh throw it over to you in this one i did see uh stuff around google though
committing to paying for 100 of the power its data centers use and bringing and to bringing
net new energy to the grid is a headline from google yeah this is the same thing that's been
going on for a little while a former employer employer of Monitif, Google, is committing,
they signed the White House Affordability Pledge
is what it's called.
And that's what all of them are there
trying to work out is signing this.
All it sounds like to me is bullish the grid, stock talk.
Like the more I see this stuff,
and I know you were ahead of the theme
a little bit on this one,
but the more I see about this
and you see the administration
because of the public backlash and everybody started looking into it saying, hey, wait a second.
You know, if this is spread out across our cost per kilowatt hour is going to go up.
And so the administration is trying to step in front of that and you're seeing more and more investments into the grid.
We know the grid is going to have to be built up, but you're seeing these companies having to step up and do it now, too.
Yeah, they'll have to do it everyone will have to do it
um it's the grid is not really a short-term investment thesis it's a really over the next
decade i think that you'll see this massive surge investment of the grid over the next four or five
years you'll see an acceleration spend that's pretty pretty consensus on wall street i don't think that that's a a bold take but um a lot of money has to be spent i don't think people understand the amount of
money that has to be spent to actually upgrade renew replace infrastructure install smart
infrastructure you know you're talking about hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars
not like a small amount of money 10 billion dollars isn't going to do anything to the grid 100 billion dollars isn't going to do it in the grid you're
talking about five six seven hundred eight hundred billion dollars of investment um at all levels of
the grid um you know, grid connectors,
off-site power, behind-the-meter power generation. All of this is investable, in my opinion. I don't
have even have exposure to all those categories, but I think all of those categories are investable.
And I think a lot of people will miss it too, uh,
because there'll be impatient. A lot of these, you know,
you look at a lot of grid companies, um,
and this isn't just the mid caps.
This includes the large caps of the space too.
You look at a lot of grid companies over the last, you know,
three or five years. If you look at their revenue growth cadence,
for example, over one, three, five years, if you look at their revenue growth cadence, for example,
over one, three, five years, you'll be pretty unimpressed. You'll be like, okay, well,
this is not, this is a subset of companies that isn't growing. And that's because
grid modernization and grid renewal and grid infrastructure investing did slow coming out
of the 2010s and the 2015s. It did slow. And in the decade prior to that,
we spent $1 to $1.2 trillion building what was the modern grid in the early 2000s prior to where
we are today. And now we've realized that that grid needs an upgrade. And that investment will
take a while to, it has some inertia. It'll take a while to get rolling but when it does it'll be a behemoth um i'm pretty confident in that now the timeline is always debatable but i'm pretty
confident in the idea that there will be a super cycle and great investment um that's coming do you
know what i think maybe different this time than last time is who's gonna be paying for this grid
upgrade it feels like it wouldn't
be super crazy to say it's some of these large companies i mean and we're going to have some
investments in this area i feel like it'll be the government yeah yeah well that's my question
there's an extra backer for it there is a need for it right now on ai so i don't know maybe it
does go a little quicker than you think how much of that do you think is factored in into all this
capex spend right now because we know that they're spending on these chips
and building out data centers and stuff,
but how much is these extra commitments going to be?
I think the market has misattributed the CapEx spend.
I think that the market, I think it is,
this is the short answer to your question.
I think it is priced in,
but I think it's priced into the market in the wrong ways.
I think it's mostly priced into the data center stocks. And that is like the data center OEMs, right? And that's where
I think the issue is because a lot of the money is not going to go into their pockets. It's going
to go into the electric infrastructure that enables the data centers. And percentages can
be debated. I mean, there's been some smart guys out there
that have done breakdowns of every dollar spent
on data centers.
But the reality is, is that something less than 60%
of the money is actually going to the data center OEMs.
It might even be much lower than that.
And the vast majority of it is going to the infrastructure
that enable data centers.
And so I think the market is priced it in, but it's priced it in the wrong places.
That's my view. And I think that grid infrastructure, power infrastructure in general is an enormous opportunity.
If you look at the valuations of those companies, they are not priced for a super cycle of investment.
companies, they are not priced for a super cycle of investment. Even now, even after all the hype
of the last year and a half, they're not nearly priced for an investment super cycle in the grid.
And I believe that's what's going to happen within the next decade. And I think it's going to start
in a big way in the next four or five years. So yeah, it's obviously a thesis you know it's not like something that's guaranteed but i
have a lot of confidence in the idea that um the grid is going to be maybe the best category to
invest in over the next decade or so because it's not just about all this ai data center spend and
like running these data centers and the power of the data centers. It's all about, it's also about the idea that everything is becoming electrified and digitized, right? The,
the, the electrification of everything, if you will, theme, that's part of it too. And it's also
the physical component of the AI component. Um, you know, the batteries that are going to be
involved in those technologies, the battery energy storage technologies that are going to be involved,
um, you know, the wireless connectivity that's going to be involved. It's also those segments as well.
So I think it's a big opportunity. I think it's one of those obvious opportunities where everyone's
like, yeah, we need a better power grid. And because of that, people are like, oh, it's too
obvious. I think it's one of those types of trades where a lot of people will miss it. A lot of
people will be underexposed to it because it's quote unquote too obvious so yeah that's that's kind of my view on power infrastructure here
i found it interesting the first name that we ended up building out in that basket was
which was ens which was more on the battery storage side of it um yeah i mean it's not
really battery storage is actually in a huge segment for them they on the battery storage side of it. Yeah, I mean, it's not really...
Battery storage actually isn't a huge segment for them.
They have a battery storage segment.
Oh, interesting.
So what is the...
Industrial battery segment,
which is where the real opportunity is, I think.
This idea of having electrified objects of all sorts
in factory and warehouse settings.
You know, one of their big businesses
is like an electric forklift business
where they sell batteries for electric forklifts.
Now, that's not that sexy, but if you extrapolate that
to other types of devices that are being used in a factory and warehouse setting,
then it is attractive because then you realize that those batteries
have a lot of cross applications.
And the same thing goes for, you know, nurses has this program or company subsidiary called Brentronics, which works with the U.S. military.
And they've made portable batteries for the U.S. Marine Corps for decades.
And those batteries are now being or we're discovering there are cross applications for those battery packs.
They supply the Marine Corps and the United States has been choked by China on military batteries, right?
There have been a lot of restrictions around lithium batteries provided to the military.
You know, the same way that we blacklist Chinese military organizations from buying U.S. products,
the Chinese do the same thing to us.
And they've exacerbated that effort in the last year with all these Chinese-U.S. trade tensions,
so that U.S. military organizations can't buy Chinese batteries and can't get free access to the supply of Chinese batteries.
They're not completely banned from doing so, but China controls that choke point.
So it's important to have U.S. battery manufacturers that can fill that gap.
We don't have many. Very few battery OEMs in this country. Inersis is one of them. So that's why I still own Inersis. But yeah, I mean, you know, ITRI, which I talked about you guys with you guys a couple of weeks ago on here, that's one of my newer positions. That also is a play on the same thing, right? It's a play on smart metering infrastructure for the same reason, U.S.-based smart metering infrastructure.
It's one of the few areas of electric infrastructure that we actually do have a monopoly in or close
to monopoly, right? Itron controls a massive amount of market share. They control the North
American market almost completely. So there are companies in America that are positioned to
benefit from the idea that we need more U.S.-based
grid investment, more U.S.-based companies involved in the grid, involved in power generation,
involved in batteries, so on and so forth. So it's a big theme to kind of keep track of because
there's a lot of moving parts. There's a lot of components to electrification in general.
You know, you kind of have to do the research to understand how an electric grid works and all the different power producing segments, power management segments,
power connection segments. You have to understand the layout of a grid in order to invest in it.
But once you do, you realize there's a lot of subcomponents in the grid that are very, very compelling investments. They're at choke points in the
supply where you could see an explosion in demand if that grid investment does really pick up. So
not everything touching the grid will obviously go higher. I'm not saying every single electric
grid stock on earth will go higher over the next 10 years, but I think the vast majority will,
especially the vast majority of U.S.-based companies, because while a lot of emerging
economies are looking to build their first ever national power grids or their first ever national
power grids at scale, the United States is looking to renew an existing one. And, you know, I think
the cutting edge infrastructure has an edge in
the United States because these other emerging economies are not so concerned about building
the most modern or most, you know, digitized grid. But we, in terms of renewing the grid, are.
And so I think there's more of a technological opportunity stateside than there is in emerging
markets. So, yeah, I mean, I've done a lot of work on the power grid over the last two years.
I feel pretty confident in it.
I have three positions right now in my power grid basket.
There will be more, almost certainly.
You know, I wouldn't be surprised to see that basket at six positions by the end of the year.
So, yeah, it's something I like a lot.
It's something I'm willing to be patient with,
even if it's a trade that doesn't work right away.
It's something I'm willing to be patient with.
So, yeah.
Monit, of whether your hand's up or not,
I was coming to you next because I'm curious that,
especially on that repricing piece there,
or I guess more of like the way StockTuck put it there was
they've priced in the wrong names
in a way. And that's kind of what I'm
starting to sniff out,
it seems like here. I'm curious your take.
Well, let's
back it up a little bit, right? So I think
first of all,
the data I'm looking
at, these companies
have all run up based on the growth in their backlogs.
And some of them insanely so, right?
If you look at, let's look at the engineering side of it.
Quanta, MYR, Promorus.
Quanta is 65, 70 times trailing, 35, 40 times forward.
MYR is 41 times trailing, 25 times forward.
These are not normal numbers historically for these companies.
So they have priced in substantial growth.
And the numbers that they have today are contingent on that growth staying strong for years to come
because these projects are very long
running, right? Eaton, I can go down the line, right? Eaton, GE, Siemens, Cummins, Caterpillar,
they're all... So I think we have to be very careful here. What is probably mispriced are the smaller players, medium-sized players,
certainly not the large companies, the ones that...
Good thing I don't own any of the large ones.
I'm sorry, can you repeat that?
I said good thing I don't own any of the large ones.
Yeah, I mean, they're not cheap, right?
Many of them are far more expensive than their biggest, you know, funders in some sense, right?
If you look at the Googles of the world and, you know, Amazons of the world, these guys' fees are far higher and historically widely off of their own longer term averages or the industry averages.
So I think you have to be very, very selective in this group.
The obvious ones have run up dramatically.
So you have to really pick through this list and try to find the ones that are maybe a second or third-rung,
third-year suppliers to this that have not yet benefited or it's not showing up fully in their backlogs right so so they just wanted to
yep i agree with that completely yes a lot of the larger power producers are overpriced
right i mean schneider is is is i have a large position in schneider but but it's not cheap anymore. It's run up so much in the last two years
that I am more, you know, thinking of getting out than adding anything to that position or even
holding on for long. So, you know, Siemens, same thing. And many of the Japanese, you know,
companies that are major suppliers to the grid, same thing.
They're up, you know, on an average 40, 50 percent year over year last three years.
So some of this is overdone.
So maybe the trade is to, you know, look at a much, much smaller sub five billion market cap companies to find value in this group?
Sub-5 billion market cap, my bread and butter. Yeah, that's where I'm focused as usual is the
smaller names. But yeah, like you mentioned, the power producers, the people at the top of the
chain are overpriced. And the real value I think is in the mid caps that are supplying
infrastructure to those larger players.
And that's where I think the real opportunity is.
And there are many of them that are much more reasonably priced than the
ones that wanted to mention.
And so those are the ones that I'm personally focused on,
you know,
companies that are trading at,
you know, a very, very reasonable price
and free cash flow, 10 to 12, you know, that are showing high growth in one or two of their
segments. That's what I'm looking for. And a lot of them are margin improvement stories because
you're not going to find the revenue inflection in the short term to justify
multiple expansion. But I think in the long term, you know, you will find with some of these opportunities
quite a bit of multiple expansion.
You know, I think a lot of the ones that I own personally, I think, are have the ability
to double.
And so, yeah, the mid caps, like Martin mentioned, I agree, are the place to focus.
And, you know, you have to know what
you're doing you have to understand the infrastructure cycle and also the steps
to build power infrastructure in order to really recognize those opportunities
so one other thing i want to add is is if you if you take the largest of these players that are actually the front of this whole build-out thesis
and the queue in terms of who the utilities will go to,
they're all either at or very close to their capacity.
They don't have any wiggle room left in taking on large orders.
So it's going to have to come in one of
two ways it's probably going to overflow to a second third tier player that's much smaller
that does not have the benefit of of a large backlog yet or they're going to have to do m&a
to take on some of those players where you know their own valuation supports a stock buyout of a much smaller player,
if nothing, just to get capacity and keep their large customers in shop.
So I think there's a big M&A wave coming because these guys now have the money
that they've not had in decades, right?
They've had to depend on the debt market for almost the entirety of their capital expansion needs.
So now they have the currency of their strong stocks to be able to do it and the margin that supports it. My guess is we are going to see a buyout and M&A cycle like never before in the sector
and a lot of consolidation.
So the simplest way I look at it, right, if you go to a company like Quanta, PWR, or one of their closest competitors, the backlog they have, and if you look at their annual execution in history, even if they are able to expand the usual 15-20% a year, and remember, these are very high-skill jobs.
They can't just double or triple your execution easily.
They can't fill out that backlog in any reasonable time.
And I don't think the utilities are gonna wait.
So a lot of the business they've taken on
is contingent on them expanding dramatically.
And the easiest expansion route is M&A.
You know, by the way, we do have a really interesting conversation coming up here in the next couple of minutes.
I apologize if I just can't hear you and I'm talking over you, Ryan.
But this one is a fun one. I want you guys to stick with it.
We're going to be talking about aliens, pretty much.
And how to invest in it.
Stock Talk, do you think
aliens are real? Did you know
that on Kalshi right now,
there's a 21% chance
they say that the U.S. government
announces aliens this year?
Really?
What's the market?
What's the volume behind this?
Let me check.
I thought it was pretty higher
than I thought.
10 million
has been put behind this market.
I wonder how much of that is
people selling premium.
Someone's got to be on the other side.
Maybe it was when it was lower, but
20% seems high.
That's where I think
most of the money is actually made
is people just making these markets
on the polymarket and stuff.
Because they feel like half of them have little outs and all.
But we did hear Obama kind of confirm aliens maybe.
And then Trump basically said,
well, that was classified information.
So who knows?
We could be there.
Double confirmation.
Double confirmation, right?
I don't know.
It's really interesting.
And then like.
That was such a weird response when he said that.
I was like, so you're agreeing with what he said?
Right.
Yeah.
I was like, wait, you just said that Obama gave classified information and that information
was about aliens.
So you do know.
Yeah.
That was such a weird answer. Yeah. I i don't know i don't know what's
going on with that i feel like wolfie's a big alien guy do i believe in aliens i mean yeah
i believe in aliens do you think in your lifetime there will be confirmed aliens. I don't know about confirmed.
Like there is like
factual, like we have seen it.
I'm not saying like blue
like two finger people or whatever.
Like you can be either one of those other planets.
Like life on another planet.
I'll give you, I'll leave a go
on that one. I know they're trying to do some exploration.
I mean, I don some exploration. Um, I mean,
I don't know. Like,
I don't know if there's going to be confirmed evidence ever confirmed is a
weird term to use. Um,
I don't know. There's some weird shit going on. That's what I'll say.
You know, we don't know. There's some weird shit going on. That's what I'll say. You know, we don't know that like people like Commander David Fravor, people who know who know that is a highly decorated pilot for many, many years.
You know, he did the Congress testimony and the Joe Rogan show.
He's not like the previous UFO people that Joe Rogan's had on or that have been in the public eye.
He's like a very, very honest-seeming, very decorated pilot that has a lot of testimony around them seeing those objects, the tic-tac, if you will, moving at
unknown speeds
with unknown physics.
That's
interesting to me and has always been
interesting to me. Is it aliens?
Maybe not. Maybe it's just like some super
classified U.S. government program from
Skunk Works that we don't know about, but
it is interesting and it is
something that there's been no answers given to despite years of discussion about it. So yeah, I think
that all that stuff's interesting and the disclosure around it will be interesting when
the government feels like they have an answer, but I mean, I don't know, dude, it could not be
aliens. It could just be some highly advanced U S technology. That's probably more likely,
um, you know, just from a probability
standpoint. But it is interesting. I think people who, like, just dismiss it are probably being
intellectually dishonest a little bit. I mean, like, no one's had a good explanation for what
those objects are for years. And maybe somebody knows in the government, but no one's told the
public. And so, I don't know, not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I do think the whole UFO phenomenon thing is very interesting. I mean, I don't know if anyone's seen Age of
Disclosure, which came out on Netflix or on Amazon Prime, like, I don't know, whatever,
a couple months ago, started this year sometime, I think it was. No, it was like end of last year.
But, you know, Marco Rubio's on that documentary too, talking about it and saying like,
I've looked into it and I haven't gotten any answers and it's weird and you know he's implying that something's being hidden
so i don't know i mean for a person like that to risk his reputation or risk his political
will to to comment on something like that i think is pretty interesting. Now, I don't know if there's
anything to that
or if it's just
him speculating,
but I don't know.
That whole thing is really interesting to me.
I don't know if there's a direct way to play it.
I guess we'll be talking about that with Tuttle in a little bit, but
there have been some companies
that have been floated about
working with the U. the US on secret programs
I've read some stuff about that and you know, maybe they're involved, but who knows?
Are we talking about black budget planes?
Guess the way we are. Yeah, I guess the way we are. Oh
One of my favorite topics. Yeah, this is gonna be really fun conversation
I saw Gav pop up here too.
I don't know if Gav's available to unmute.
Gav, aliens this year?
Real? Yes? No?
Not seeing it yet.
I'll put it on the record.
I'll take the under.
You'll take the under?
I like that.
I also like what Sock Talk said.
I think I'm more in the camp of there's definitely technology that we don't know about that's being developed.
I think that's most likely what it is here.
But I don't know.
Either way, there should be another major breakthrough in technology.
I mean, AIS is one of them, but there should be another breakthrough in technology, maybe physics or something.
It just seems like we haven't had anything like that in quite a while.
So that's going to be very, very interesting.
I see Matthew Tuttle from Tuttle Capital joining us up here on stage just in time for this
conversation.
Matthew, welcome.
Let's get a little mic check, make sure we got you.
Yeah.
Can you hear me?
I got you loud and clear.
How are you?
I'm great.
How are you?
Can't complain.
Another beautiful day.
Green day in the market.
So we're always happy with that and excited for a great conversation here with you.
Would love if you wanted to just jump in, give a quick introduction of yourself, and
then we'll kind of dive into it a little bit.
Yeah.
So Matt Tuttle, run Tuttle Capital and Tuttle Wealth Partners.
Tuttle Capital, ETF Shop. I don't know what we have, 68, 66, I don't know, over 60.
ETFs, about $4.3 billion.
Tuttle Wealth Partners, wealth management firm, about $80 million, but we just started.
about 80 million, but we just started.
You know, people on the space may be familiar
with some of the stuff I've done.
Inverse Arc, we did.
Inverse Jim Cramer, we did.
Probably done some other strange stuff too.
But that's us in a nutshell.
Awesome.
I saw Gav popping back up here as well if uh if he's free
would love for him to carry his we got you loud and clear gav yeah i'm super excited for this one
always good having matt tettle up with us on stage the concept also is super interesting that they're
building out right now and they've already launched inside the ctf became even more pertinent with
everything that's happening right now in the Middle East in terms of conflict and warfare coming from
the United States.
You know, I'm sure people who are in our audience are no stranger to listening to Stock Talk
talk about some of these defense plays that have worked really well for him over the past
year.
And this is, I think, a little bit of like even like a next level to that is what we're
going to discuss here in terms of investing in classified tech.
So really excited to get into it.
Yeah, please go for it.
No, we were talking right before this on if we believe in aliens.
Stock talks a yes.
I'm a yes.
We were talking about that little pill back from a couple of years ago.
A little silence in that direction.
Gov, and I definitely want to hear Matt's take
on this, but you believe in aliens?
You're an aliens guy? I've seen you in person,
man. I don't know.
It's a pretty good case.
I'm just kidding.
Yeah, listen,
it's unlikely that we're the only
intelligent life in the world, right?
We're the aliens from other people.
Yeah, universe, that as well. Multiverse, some might only intelligent life in the world, right? We're the only people. Universe.
Universe, that as well.
Multiverse, some might say.
We'll see how deep the pot goes.
To kick us off here real fast, I do
want to say we are excited
to be working with Total Capital
on this. UFOD,
we are going to be talking about that ticker
today just for compliance reasons.
An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risk, charges, and expenses
before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information
about Tuttle ETFs. To obtain a fund's perspective and summary prospectus, visit their website at
TuttleCapital.com. All right, we're excited to work with Tuttle
and CBOE on this. Glad that we have this conversation here. This is probably the one
I've looked forward to all week long, Matthew, and I'm just excited for you to kind of kick us off
with maybe the background of what made you launch this fund and kind of the idea behind it, the
thematic that we are looking at here with UFOD? Yeah, so it's definitely one of the more interesting projects I've worked on, but it
could also end up being the most rewarding theme that we've worked on.
And I really do spend a lot of time trying to figure out, all right, what's going to
be the hot theme before
anyone else recognizes it? You know, we hit the top of the market when we did inverse arc.
We did EUAD, European Aerospace and Defense, you know, right after Trump got elected. That was up
some ridiculous amount last year. I think this could be just as powerful. So, you know,
the idea is, and I don't know if a lot of people kind of realize this, but a lot of innovation
comes out of government first. And, you know, there's a saying a lot of times that whatever
you're seeing, the government's like 20, 30 years ahead of you. And, you know, that
happened with the internet. I mean, DARPA was developing the internet in the 60s and 70s,
happened with GPS, self-driving, you know, a bunch of other things. And we kind of look at it and
we call it the secret gap. what could the government be working?
It could eventually become commercialized here within this year, let's say.
And what we're thinking, for a lot of different reasons, which I can get into, is there are two key things.
One is, and for lack of a better way to describe it, I'll call it free energy.
It's basically a way to extract energy from the environment and then kind of advance propulsion.
And this is a topic I've been fascinated with
since I was a kid. What really got me interested in launching this ETF now is there are things
that are happening that seem fairly obvious. And I hesitate because there's so much misinformation and psyops around
this topic, but that this is likely to be released soon. So the first thing we saw in 2017,
the New York Times posted an article from a quote-unquote whistleblower talking about how there was a Pentagon program to study UFOs,
which was secret because there wasn't supposed to be one.
Then along with that came out two videos.
And those videos were fighter pilots chasing after something.
They called it a Tic Tac because it was shaped like
a Tic Tac. And whatever they were chasing after was using energy and propulsion that we're not
aware of. And so, you know, when that came out, everyone was speculating like, is it aliens? Is
it Chinese? Is it Russian? You know, is it time travelers? I look at it from an investment
standpoint. I'm like, all right, what's the power source? What's the propulsion?
And then fast forward to Trump getting elected and saying, hey, we're going to get disclosure.
I think everything is leading up. And whether it's alien technology or not,
doesn't matter. You know, alien technology makes it more fun, without a doubt. But whether it is
or it isn't, I think everything is leading up to the technology that can be unclassified, and not everything can obviously be unclassified,
but what can be unclassified being surfaced.
And if it does, that's a game changer, but possibly even more than AI.
So what we wanted to do is say, all right, what are the companies, first order, second
order, third order, that would likely be the
beneficiaries of this technology got released, number one, but number two, constructed in
a portfolio that's names you want to own if this never, ever happens.
So that's it in a nutshell.
And I can dig deeper into any area you want on that
yeah absolutely it's super super interesting i am curious some of the process of you just kind
of hinted at it there a little bit but the different holdings i did pin a tweet up top
that shows kind of the top 10 holdings there uh in ufod um omentumentum Holdings is the first one, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, a lot of
familiar names in here as well. I see Palantir, Boeing down on that list as well. Where do you
kind of draw the parallels here within the research of selecting these companies? Obviously,
you said there's a lot of companies I've seen here that I either own or want to own,
but at the same time, where are you drawing the parallel as you do some of the research
here of maybe there are beneficiaries of some of this government spend that we may never
hear about?
Yeah, so there's two components of this.
So there are private companies that are raising venture capital money that are working on these technologies.
And that's barely out in the open.
You know, they don't talk about it that much.
The private companies are not working on any alien technology.
What they're doing is they're, you know, listening to what whistleblowers are saying in front of
Congress. They're looking at the videos and they're saying, hey, this is possible. So how do
we do this? So, you know, that's one aspect. I can't invest in those now. We're kicking around,
you know, do we do some sort of SPV? We'll see.
I mean, that can be problematic in an ETF structure.
Then you've got what people refer to as the legacy program.
And those are the public companies that are working on these projects with government funding that, again, we're not seeing. And I don't know if you guys remember the famous thing.
It may have been the day before 9-11.
Rumsfeld came out and said, hey, there's a $2 trillion hole in the Pentagon budget.
And most likely, you don't make a $2 trillion accounting error.
Most likely, that's the legacy program. So all of that stuff is with the big
defense contractors. If they're working on it and if the legacy program exists,
right now it is highly compartmentalized, which also makes it very, very difficult to work on this in some sort of a,
you know, Manhattan Project type of thing where you bring in all the top people and have them
work on it. And the other kind of potential thing that's out there is Russia and China are also working on this
technology, but for them, it's not compartmentalized because those are different
government structures and they can do things differently than we can. And so I think a lot of this push to disclosure is also the want to bring out this technology
in a way that it can be worked on in the open.
So what I wanted to look at is, all right, who's got it?
It's the defense primes.
Who's then going to be needed to be brought into it?
What are the companies that are going to need to be the suppliers?
So, you know, the rare earths, some of the exotic energy, the photonics, you know, the
engineering type companies.
Then you look at like, you know, the Tesla, you know, obviously Elon Musk knows everything that's going on.
Palantir would be brought in.
So it's really, it goes down to how we look at themes.
First off, who are the obvious winners?
Who are then the suppliers to the winners?
Who are the suppliers to the suppliers?
And that's what we wanted to make the basket with then the proviso that I want this to be something that can do well regardless.
And the cool, no, I mean, not cool.
I mean, war sucks.
But the cool thing about war for a basket like this is it brings out some of these advanced
technologies.
So we saw these one-way drones.
We saw Israel, you know, firing lasers at missiles.
And we saw it in Venezuela with the discombobulator, you know, whatever the hell a discombobulator
So, you know, that's how we kind of went about
constructing the portfolio the part that's super interesting to me is that we are seeing new
technologies which you just said there we're seeing new technologies whenever a conflict like
this happens a lot of times we get introduced to something that's been in the works for years
a couple questions that i have a follow-up and then I'll open it up to the panel here as well. But one, it seems like this is a
fair bet on, hey, at some point they are going to disclose this because there's such a push to it
from the administration. I was talking with Stock Talk and Evan just before he came up here, but
we heard Obama make some comments about aliens recently and then Trump come out and basically
say, well, that was classified information he shouldn't have said.
They almost go like, okay,
is that kind of like a confirmation type of thing here?
Of course, the polymarket stuff's fun.
But if something comes out,
it seems like a rush into these companies
from an investment perspective would be,
you know, like it would just open up a gate.
But then a lot of the things you just said
sound like stuff that, you know,
Stock Talk is investing in.
When you think about the rare earths, you think about the materials that would be going
into the same thing. It seems like it tracks the AI trade and the defense and this expanding
defense trade that's been going on for quite a while. Both very hot thematics right now.
So it seems like you've got this set up in a very good way to position yourself no matter what.
up in a very good way to kind of position yourself no matter what right what what i didn't want to do
is create like some poly market bet where hey if trump comes out and says aliens are real we're up
100 if trump comes out and says yeah no aliens don't exist we go to zero what i wanted was to
construct a portfolio that works that has names that everyone wants to be in, that I want to be in
because I own it too, but that could really benefit if this technology comes out. And it
hasn't been just what Obama and Trump said. Now, the fact that they said it, I think is interesting because, you know, in Obama's case, he knows words matter.
So for him to come out and say that when he said that is interesting.
But, you know, we've been in. It's amazing to me. The news doesn't report on it, we're having congressional testimony like crazy of whistleblowers coming out
and talking about all aspects of this issue, including, hey, we have crashed non-human vehicles
that we are reverse engineering. And you've got Congress people coming out saying,
And you've got Congress people coming out saying, I've seen classified documents that would blow your mind, that are going to change your whole perception of what's going on.
Now, again, there is so much misinformation about this issue.
Do we have alien technology or not?
I mean, I've got an opinion on that, but it doesn't
really matter. What matters is, do we have things around energy and propulsion that we haven't seen?
And it makes sense. The way I look at it is, I always like to look, what makes sense and what doesn't? And what doesn't make sense to me is that my car has almost nothing to do with a Model T,
except we still use the same fuel source, you know, 120 years later.
You know, why did all advancements on energy kind of stop with nuclear?
Why did all advancements with propulsion basically stop with nuclear? Why did all advancements with propulsion
basically stop with rockets?
You know, why was anti-gravity such a hot thing
and then all of a sudden in 1958,
no one was talking about it anymore?
You know, Nikola Tesla was working on free energy
in the 1920s.
We haven't gone anywhere from there. I mean, none of that makes sense to
me. So I do think we're sitting on this technology. Could be alien, could be human.
Doesn't matter to me. What matters is we're sitting on it and at some point they're going
to have to release it.
I think that piece you just said is very interesting. It doesn't matter if it's,
if it's alien technology or it could, I've seen people even suggest this is ancient technology that was lost at some point that's being rediscovered. Or if this is, you know,
governments, like you were mentioning earlier, to circle back to your point earlier, where you said,
you know, the internet was around way before it actually came out to the public a lot of things that the public have are results of military
experiments from years ago that they said hey this is not going to be a viable weapon or defense
technology and they release it to the public um but one thing on your on your website you have no
tinfoil hats required and i think that that's one of the things that caught my attention the most is like a lot of people hear UFO or they'll hear alien or UAP or whatever the correct
term is for it nowadays. And they think you have to have a tinfoil hat. But the way that this is
set up, it's not tinfoil hat at all. And it could be any of those things that that's, that's where
my brain goes. That's the support that I think I like the most when it caught my attention.
Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I mean, what I said before, this doesn't have to be alien technology. It's more fun if it is. I mean,
it's way more fun if Roswell was real. And, you know, we got a craft, we reverse engineered it,
but it doesn't have to be. And, you know, and whether we'll ever get the true story on any of that,
you know, who knows? We haven't, you know, disclosure of other things hasn't been
all that satisfying. So yeah, you don't need to believe in aliens. You don't need to believe
we've captured alien technology. And again, like you said, it
could be an ancient civilization. I mean, if anyone wants to, you know, go down a rabbit hole,
start looking at Graham Hancock stuff. So yeah, it doesn't matter either way. All that matters is,
yeah, I think most people would agree what we're seeing out in public, the government's
got to have something more advanced.
And once again, you made the point earlier that the government doesn't always need to
disclose everything that they're spending and working on, of course.
We know that through historical documents and stuff but
just for national security reasons they'll hide behind anything you know national security is kind of the perfect excuse for government to almost do what they want to do at this point
um before i open it up to to evan gov sniper hanging out with us up here i'm sure there's
some other questions here um when when this comes to this isn't built
on just a single event right like and i know that like that single event could be a big thing
do you have any type of idea maybe this is just an opinion but do you have any type of idea
uh where you're at just personally on do we find out something this year i mean it's just the the
poly market stuff's been fun a lot of the conversations are fun. Evan was kind of given his, he was taking the under earlier. I'm just
curious if you've got like a personal thought or opinion on what a timeframe may look like.
So my personal opinion, they are trying. So that link to the New York Times,
link to the New York Times, I'm pretty sure that Lockheed Martin was behind it in some way,
shape or form. You know, you've got the whistleblowers coming out. Congress is trying
to get control. Trump is trying to get control. What I would watch for is immunity because all the people testifying in front of
Congress are military and intelligence. What you want is you want the engineer at Lockheed
to come in and say, yeah, I'm working on this. And why you need immunity, because you were right, the government can spend money,
we don't have to know. The problem is that this program is being run outside of Congress and
outside of the president, which is illegal. And so to get the people you need to testify to testify you're going to have to give them
immunity because if they've been working on this stuff technically they've been breaking the law
they also need whistleblower protection where you know lockheed or raytheon can't fire them
so that's really what you want to look for. If that happens, then I think we could get
some interesting disclosures. If it doesn't, then the only people we're going to see testifying are
intelligence people. And, you know, really hard to believe somebody when they've got to clear everything they say with the Pentagon.
Yeah, great, great point there.
This is so interesting to me.
I'm really glad.
Once again, chatting with Matthew Tuttle here, Tuttle Capital, about UFOD.
We open it up and we go over to Sniper, actually.
Sniper, you're big into the defense industry. I know that we have that Wolf Defense account that I've been following,
especially lately with everything going on.
It's really interesting to keep up
with all the developments,
all the different fighter jets and stuff
that we do currently have.
New technology that's being discovered
by the public right now.
Sniper, I'm curious
if you have any questions here for Matthew,
any thoughts that you want to throw into the mix
around maybe alien technology
maybe just advanced u.s technology that we haven't seen yet what's going on sniper hey um just to
confirm you can hear me all right i got you loud and clear awesome so you know before i get over
to talking about alien technology just yet i want to talk talk about precisely, you know, just what is exactly
unknown, you know, and we know that we're pretty much working off of a $1 trillion defense budget.
And what we do not know, or what we don't know precisely is what all $1 trillion of this is
being used for. 5% of the budget, which would equate to about $50 billion, is used for the
black budget. Now, this is for development programs that are not
known to the public. Nobody knows what it is. The defense contracts for this $50 billion is not
posted on Department of War. It's not posted anywhere, and nobody has any clue with it.
Basically, what Matthew was saying before, I found very interesting. And there is the possibility,
if there is alien vehicles being reverse engineered, the process of reverse engineering
is taking apart the vehicle and figuring out how it was built to build some more of your own. You know, it's very
common across our defense technologies. It's basically why we cannot have active US fighter
jets crashing in other countries. But basically, you know, that possibility is absolutely real.
I've entertained this speculation quite a bit. I'm not going to sit here and say that it's confirmed
or anything is confirmed.
But now there is all these random triangular objects that we've seen, you know, throughout the course of the last 30 years appearing in the sky.
Many times and one thing that nobody really talks about is, you know, it kind of just is up there and it just disappears.
And eventually when there's a huge buzz going on about it around social medias and
everything, all of a sudden, two, three days later, nobody's talking about it anymore and
nobody understands why.
We never get a clear answer on what we're seeing in the air.
You don't know if it's aliens.
You don't know if this is the U.S. government spying on people.
We don't really know exactly what's going on, you know.
So I'm going to go ahead and have to ask Matthew.
I'm going to have to ask you a question since we got you up here.
And it seems like you're an expert on the space specifically.
Why are Mentum over Lockheed Martin specifically?
Now, I'm sure that you've read about the TR-3B and that entire stack of these large triangular objects.
Apparently, they're capable of going Mach 35.
I've read some all kinds of crazy things on there.
But if there was someone who was reverse engineering
alien and spaceware,
who do you think it would exactly be?
So I think it's all of them.
I mean, it's Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop,
General Dynamics.
You know, it's all of those guys.
Why Amentum?
And we have all of it, why Amentum's the largest holding, and I don't think it's the largest holding by much, is just because I think the
largest alpha is there. You know, so if Lockheed says, hey, we've got free energy technology,
you know, Lockheed's a massive company. So should that
impact their earnings? Yeah, it should. Is it going to impact their earnings as much as it
would like an momentum? It wouldn't. So I think momentum's the more asymmetrical play here,
which is why we made it the top holding. I see.
You know, I find that very interesting, and I agree.
It would definitely be much more noticeable there, especially considering the numbers.
Did not consider that even at all.
So now let me ask you another question.
Are you familiar with those triangular-shaped objects that I was talking about previously?
Oh, yeah. triangular shaped objects that i was talking about previously oh yeah and you know there is
speculation that a lot of those triangular objects are raytheon i see um i have seen that
speculation as well i've seen some speculations that it's lockheed so now if i so i've seen
speculation the tic tac is lockheed, the triangles are Raytheon.
But again, who knows?
Yeah, you know, so like a funny story on Wolf Defense.
I once actually posted a video of that TR-3B, which is one of those triangle-shaped levitating objects.
And we're kind of looking with reverse gravity engineering.
I don't understand exactly how it is.
I'm not going to sit here and pretend to understand how that works.
But if you were to personally take a gamble right now on the TR3B existing, basically
the post did very well, but I decided that I had to take it down because you can't confirm
that it exists.
Now, A, I would say you can't confirm that it exists.
And just as much as you can't confirm it exists
you can't confirm it is not real if you were to take a gamble on it right now and you just had to
say yes it exists or no it does not exist which one would you say would you pick i i mean i i
would say it exists i would my thinking is that these
