Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
WILL THE LARGEST NAMES CONTINUE TO WIN $SIOO
Recorded: Dec. 18, 2025 Duration: 2:34:52Space Recording
Short Summary
Starfighters successfully launched its IPO today, trading under the ticker FJET, and has generated significant market interest. This event not only marks a new project launch in the aerospace sector but also highlights emerging trends in utilizing innovative technologies for satellite launches, indicating potential growth opportunities in this space.
Full Transcription
What is up? What is up?
What is up, everybody?
I hope you're all doing well.
It was quite the green day earlier in the market.
We're giving some of it back, but still a little green, still a little green.
I'm sure we're going to have options, Mike, coming up here telling me why the market is
not trading super well today.
We had a little bit of an IPO.
If you guys remember a while ago on Stocks and Spaces, we talked about this a little bit.
It's a company we were working with, are working with right now.
I want you guys to do your own research.
There's disclaimer links that I put out.
You guys should go look at them, whatever.
That's just me and all this stuff.
This isn't sponsored, but Starfighters, they had their IPO come out today.
FJET, it was at $18 a little earlier.
It's at $8.50 right now.
I was getting my shares transferred over,
so that is one that I was watching.
But theme of the market, nice earlier move,
giving some of it back.
Still could be a nice power hour.
We can still see highs of days again.
VAS. I feel like VAS a foster vast i feel like i i'm horrible with names i'll get it at some point but i want to be right correct
me it's boss thanks for having me how you doing sir i uh appreciate you for for joining us here
today um what's your what's your thoughts on this market?
Anything standing out to you?
Obviously today, a nice green day still.
Stocks are up.
But the last couple of days were pretty tough.
We got a very low CPI number coming out this morning, 2.7% year over year for November.
Wall Street was expecting 3.1%. Gave the markets a nice little pump this morning, but
what's your general thoughts on where we're at, stuff's going on?
Yeah, for sure. First of all, thanks for having me. And for those of you who don't know,
recent joiner of these podcasts or spaces, my philosophy is sort of, I don't think that right
now is the right time to enter the market if you're not already in it. I did, you know, kind of buy a few dips in like late November is I think
when the larger dip took place. I'm still eyeing like most of my knowledge and background is in
the AI space and the tech space. So that's kind of like where I have my focus. Robinhood scooped
up a little bit more at 100. still think they're a good name to
bet on uh meta obviously you know when they dipped i think to 600 that was a really good time to buy
um yeah the market is surprisingly like tumultuous um i was expecting a little bit more
you know of a consistent bounce back i'm still like kind of holding i'm not really like dipping
out of any names i'm taking profits where i need to. But as far as entering the market goes,
I'm assuming a lot of people listening here
are wondering when they should time it.
I would wait for it to settle a little bit,
DCA a little bit when you can.
I'm not eager to jump into any new names personally.
But that's just my two cents.
That is fair. That is fair.
That is fair.
So what does the next couple days and weeks look like for you?
Is it just you just on here for the nice token?
Hello.
We'll check in the markets or.
Yeah, pretty much.
Fair.
Yep.
Pretty much.
I agree.
Nice.
Definitely feel free to jump in on the conversation we'll have a couple different
topics here you interested in space stocks at all you a space stock guy a little bit i was
considering buying some secondaries for a spacex um i used to own rocket lab but hasn't really been
a core part of my focus recently um That was more like earlier this year,
I think last year more so.
Yeah, fair enough.
Appreciate you for joining us up here
and feel free to jump in on the conversation.
We'll get some good topics going on here.
Options Mike, how are you doing today?
Tell me more preface this.
Options Mike is an intraday.
He's a trader.
He's going to tell me, you know, his time frame is a little different than ours.
How is the market treating you today, sir?
I'm guessing you're going to say it's bad?
No, I had a good day.
I mean, I think it was a little bit of tough on the open, but, you know, it turned into a nice day.
The market, you know, today was a little different.
I mean, we had that big gap up, and we definitely have chopped around quite a bit today.
But a lot of the names I like to trade today, you know, I'm still in some Microsoft.
Microsoft's had a huge move today.
Tesla came running back up today.
Palantir, even Nvidia came back up here, right?
You saw a lot of these names had a nice little bit move back up here.
Meta tried to have a big breakout in progress, but it's getting a lot of it back.
You know, I don't think, I think was a decent day and when the market's holding this
gap up fairly well i mean so you know if you're pure bull you gapped up you have the shorts
trapped now we have not been able to reclaim the eight day yet and that needs to be done so the spy
is currently trading a little below it that's at the 679 area we'll see how we close um you know
he had that big sell-off in the middle of lunchtime for no reason whatsoever.
And we've come, you know, we're kind of just hanging out in that day.
But we're pretty much holding the open area, the lows of the day.
We haven't really gone anywhere on this big gap up.
We had a lot of talk.
There's been a lot of chatter about these numbers this morning.
And, you know, the market and traders are saying these are great numbers.
This is fabulous.
And economists are saying, well, not so fast because of the way they calculate them
And if you're not paying attention how they calculate them is they they included October in their calculations and as part of it
And the month but they put everything at zero because they didn't have any data
So that kind of skews the data a little bit. I don't think it's huge, but it definitely skews it a little bit
But you know the committee is can we hold now, you know, the community is, can we hold now?
You know, can we hold this move up or do we sell this back off again tomorrow?
I know tomorrow's quad wish.
There's a lot going on.
But overall, I think today has not been a bad day.
You know, Micron gave me a little ride.
Tried to hold some calls on that, and it just held too long.
And overall, it's holding in fine.
But, you know, that was one hell of a report last night.
I mean, that guidance was unbelievable.
I mean, the beat and the guidance on that thing was just you know that was like nvidia type numbers just
amazing so i i'm i'm trying to be hopeful here that this market's going to spine its footing
that they're going to try to squeeze this back up and maybe we'll start to rally a little bit
into the end of the year now how's that or rivian having a day a huge day on that upgrade
Rivian having a huge day on that upgrade.
Yeah, I didn't even see a Rivian upgrade.
I did see that it was up big, though.
Interesting, that makes sense.
Ooh, wow, almost at 20.
Yeah, I appreciate the thoughts there.
Thanks, guys.
Brian Lund, why don't you complete us out here in the trio of intros, and we'll get into the conversation.
You got any thoughts on what you guys before you have been talking about, or just in general what you want to throw in?
No, I want to give you some praise, because you were very chill yesterday, and you were just saying that you didn't think anything major was happening,
and you felt like the market was still in a good spot and so far you're right so i'll see what tomorrow you know you can turn it we
can turn it down quickly and obviously i looked a lot more right intraday isn't that the thing
about the second isn't that the thing about the markets right especially if you're an idiot trader
like me is like you're right one day you're wrong like, you're right one day, you're wrong one day, you're right one day. But seriously, I didn't get a chance to talk yesterday because stock talk wouldn't shut up.
But I'm just kidding. But one of the things I wanted to mention yesterday was so many people
were freaking out and panicking yesterday. And I think that's a real sign. It's a sign that you're doing
something wrong, right? It either means that you are too concentrated in one name. It means you're
too levered up. What it usually means in these situations is you don't really know why you were
in a trade or in a position to start. People like
to say, oh, I'm a day trader, I'm a swing trader, I'm an investor. I think it makes a lot more sense
to quantify individual positions. And there's basically only five types of positions. There's
a scalp trade, day trade, swing trade, what I call an active investment or a strategic
investment, and then there's long-term investing, right?
Most people don't scalp, so you get that out of the mix.
Long-term investing, super simple.
You DCA, you put your money in your 401k, so that's out of the mix.
The real, where the rubber meets the road is where you fall between the day trader, the swing trader,
and the active trader. And a lot of people do all three of those things. And sometimes positions
will evolve. It will start out as a day trade. And because the technical is warranted, it can
transition to a swing trade. But each one of those types of trades has its own management style. And strategy should dictate management.
It's very simple, right? If you're in it for a day trade, you should have parameters
and a methodology that will tell you when it's time to get out. If you're in there for a swing
trade, same thing. And so people yesterday that were freaking out when the market was down so much,
So people yesterday that were freaking out when the market was down so much, I just don't think they knew why they were in a position because if they were investors, they shouldn't care really because they've got decades.
If they are day traders or swing traders, they shouldn't have been in these positions anyway because the market was not in a good spot.
So I just think – I think there's a lot of people that got a free ride in 2025, and this has been a very forgiving market.
Like even myself, like there are times when I probably had a loose entry or didn't work my strategy perfect, and the market bailed me out.
Okay?
It happens.
But markets don't stay like this forever. If you've been having a little trouble the last few days in the market, I think it really behooves you, which means it really would be to your advantage to sit down and ask yourself
if you have some sort of risk-based methodology.
And you'll know if you have it if you know when to get out of a stock, right?
Because a risk-based methodology tells you when the strategy you got into the stock for
is no longer viable or does no longer the thesis
is no longer correct if you don't have that you know maybe maybe punch out right now take the
next couple weeks and work on that because at some point this market is going to change from
a forgiving market to you know more brutal market and stock talk talked about it the other day like
there are people that made five million bucks
this year that gave four of it back right and you don't want to be that person uh in 2026
you watching the pot stocks at all uh they're down big today actually damn
finally happened though a little bit but i guess it wasn't exactly what they wanted yeah so we've been uh in pod stock since we had a double bottom in in uh june in msos and you know
this is a classic sell the news thing what i actually did uh this morning was i actually
bought some very very cheap um msos puts um about 550 puts which i i'm always a little too cheap
when i go for options. I probably should
have got the sixes, but I bought the 550s just on the idea that we might get a sell the news thing,
which we did. I think it's interesting. So from the cursory information that I've read so far
about this executive order, it seems like the president explicitly went out of his way to say this does not legalize marijuana, right?
It just allows it to be researched federally, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Now, that's a headline-grabbing thing.
Oh, the president's not on board with it.
But for all intents and purposes, legalization is a state issue anyway.
The feds don't enforce it.
And the big benefit from this is on the balance sheets of
these pot stocks. So I think this is an initial sell the news thing, but I think structurally,
like the biggest problem with pot stocks for the last five years is they're just sloppy, horrific
cap tables. I think this is another part of that puzzle as these companies have tried to go from
gray market companies to legal companies where mergers are going to look, I think they've
got more upside ahead, but it's going to take a little while to get through this short-term
news.
Options, Mike, you bullet, you traded the weed names?
I was trying to make a pun there, but one wasn't coming.
You smoked the weed names?
What were you trying to say there, man?
I don't know.
You smoked the dope?
I was going to do that, but then it was a little bit,
it just didn't get the stocks, didn't get the reference into it.
You know, it'll have no Cheech and Chong.
You could have done a Cheech and Chong bit there, but.
No worries. He left me hanging sometimes it happens you okay today you seem a little down
you're a little low energy today what's going on buddy i'm a little tired i won't lie to you but
it's okay we're trying to get me man i was i was sorry you left me hanging and then i got called
low energy.
I don't trade the pot stocks, man.
I haven't traded those for years.
By the way, ribbon highs of the day over 20.
Yeah, I just put out the tweet.
Brian, you trading any of the space names, Mr. Lund?
What do you mean, like ASTS and those things?
Is that what you're talking about yeah well listen
I don't know if you were around when we were talking about Starfighters back in the day and
like uh all disclaimers needed whatever I we are doing work with them you should do your stuff into
it but I I did get in stuff into that that reggae offering back in the day and now I have some
Starfighter shares at the IPO price which now is just a double. It was a 5X, 4X.
Yeah, so did you sell them on the double or you keep them?
Not yet.
No, no.
I haven't even gotten it into my account yet.
There were some forums I had to fill out and stuff.
So I'm probably just going to keep it.
I'm not going to work with them and then dump right on the IPO.
So we'll hold it, see if it comes out.
If I take the L, I take the L.
But I did just buy it myself.
You know, you see that.
Yeah, so much is basic.
You always see those stories where people go, oh, if you buy $1,000 worth of Amazon, you know, or $1,000 of this, whatever, you'd be up a gazillion dollars.
But you're facing what everyone faces, which is the toughest thing, right? You buy a stock or let's just say you get an IPO, whatever, doubles.
or let's just say you get an IPO, whatever, doubles,
You think you're a genius, right?
You have 100%, right?
But you can never get up to 10,000%
until you sit through 100% or 200%.
So if you have a long-term thesis on this stock
or this company that you think is just getting started,
I get it, man.
Put it in a drawer.
Don't even look at it.
Yeah, that is the plan.
I put it on the... It's cool times but uh it's got me looking at space
and some of the names across the tin obviously it's been a little bit hot i think next uh next
year in 2026 i believe is going to be thematically uh a space name a space year i i believe and i'm
not so sure it will be some of these little peripheral ones but like um it should be
interesting i have a lot of smart people in my in my trading room that feel like 2026 is going to be the name.
Are you trading any of these names, though?
You got any ones that you're walking on there?
Yes. So I traded ASTS a lot earlier this year.
But right now, most of them are – I think they're kind of in a rebuild stage.
So I don't see any that are right for me, at least short term.
I mean, remember, I'm a trader.
Like if you're talking about investments, that's a whole different ballgame funny timing i'm seeing a
headline president trump signed order on space superiority today white house it would have came
earlier but it just crossed in front of my timeline one more time right now it's an order that just
says we are superior in space.
Is that what it says?
Or is that just a joke?
It's a joke, but with this president, it's probably
50-50 shot that that's what it says.
Nice.
Nice, nice, nice.
Mr. Voss, you got any thoughts on the conversation
uh we've been going on here uh i think before weed stocks i have a funny story um i think i
bought till ray back when i was in college uh and this was like when the whole like weed
legalization mania was going on, I think.
And this is also when I didn't know shit about trading.
I bought it at three hundred and thirty dollars, literally like the highest it's ever been in 2021.
I want to say something like that or maybe it was 2019.
I don't I don't remember.
But yeah, I'm down 90% on the weed stock there.
And that was the last time that I touched weed stocks.
So I thought that was funny to share.
Yeah, rest in peace.
I was an intern at a financial advisor place at that point.
And we had people calling asking to get into Tilray.
And we had to talk them out of it. so that is something that i actively remember as well
it was tillray the one that got everyone into it because it's like the u.s name
till yeah exactly it went to 300 a share before it went down to under a dollar and then reverse
split so you didn't lose 99.9 but you got close no. I wish I had something like this back then.
Don't we all?
What sectors are you most interested in, Voss?
I was looking through your timeline.
You got some memes in there.
I saw a little AI talk.
What else is interesting for you?
Yeah, most of my background is in the AI and tech space.
I mean, I got most of my money in stocks on big tech companies, some private companies
as well.
Databricks, Series L, I'm not sure if you guys covered that.
I thought that was funny.
OpenAI as well now, kind of reiterating they need a bunch of funding.
And I remember when we first chatted a few weeks ago, it was around whether or not they're going to get their one trillion uh valuation their ipo next
year that's like kind of mostly my background but i understand that's not really the the focus
of every week's stock talk um so yeah all right interesting no worries on uh that one starfighter space still on my screen there let's
take it off and scroll around it was interesting to see apple underperforming this morning
i wasn't really surprised there it's the the anti-ai trade the risk off the safety they're
kind of giving it up it is interesting to see it so right on my screen versus all the green ones. I really don't think
it's the worst thing. To me, I think it's
almost a little healthy to see this AI on trade.
I think it's just out of play right now
on Apple. You know, they're just waiting for some
better news or something there.
No, it feels good. Listen, it's
been holding it so strong over the last little
bit. And obviously
the reason for that is all the fears were around
this AI theme. Is this AI
theme weird, real, which was
I don't know. I think
my thought process is
on this is nothing has been solved.
Nothing has gone wrong.
There are people just scared right now.
So we're probably going to have more moments like this.
It feels like a slight chop to hire
moment until they get a catalyst
either way,
which I think is fair.
Maybe we're waiting for it.
But I don't know.
I think chop favors the bulls slightly in a market when you have these tailwinds and give it two, three up days in a row probably.
It seems like both sides are fighting pretty strong right now.
So we'll see.
We'll see what this ends up last 40 minutes looks like.
I'll be the optimist.
I'll say we close on the highs.
Meta was looking pretty strong today.
That was one of the good names.
Tesla's seems to want to be a market leader if we do move higher.
So in a move higher, I would imagine you guys would be betting on Tesla in that point.
500, easy break, 520, 525.
BMNR going red.
My crypto not being a market leader, though.
Bitcoin's been struggling.
Bitcoin did drop below 85k there.
55k would be wild.
Could happen, though.
There's problems in crypto land still.
I mean, that is something that it maintains out there.
I worry about
BMNR a lot, we'll say.
I worry about the amount
of unrealized debt
they're carrying and how
they're going to be able to service that or if they're going to eventually
get called for it.
BMNR doesn't have debt.
Yes, they do.
Sorry, unrealized losses.
They do have debt. I I mean somehow they had to raise
all that money
yeah dilution
possible
no that's literally what they're saying I mean
if they come out and lie then yeah fair
but um no that's
dilution micro strategy has some debt
covenants and stuff like that but
gotcha
it's just it's just like you know it's probably MicroStrategy has some debt covenants and stuff like that. Gotcha.
It's just like, you know, it's like, why would you hold it?
It's basically Ethereum, but you have expenses.
You got to pay some salaries and stuff in there and extra illusion, things like that.
It's like, I don't know.
It's a little different, but I hear what you're saying.
Crypto's having some problems, though.
We'll see.
It's also, listen, the market doesn't want to make it easy for you SoFi announced a stable coin this morning
built on Ethereum I believe
so more adoption coming
it's funny because I find myself both fighting with the crypto people
because a lot of them are insane
and like half the stuff that they think is going to happen
there's no chance of ever happening
like my firm belief here is that crypto is a solid technology uh that
will be used and all these main big institutions banks and everything like that will utilize the
tech maybe bitcoin comes and survives i don't know on that one actually as much but like the
tech is going to be utilized by the mainstream people is really what it is so like the people
think crypto is nothing probably that's exactly it they're going to use that especially ethereum's going to
be using that i agree a thousand percent yeah so yeah but the people who think it's going to create
this whole new ecosystem of stuff like i just don't think there might be some but like really
not that much so i don't know both sides are are in an interesting position there. It does lead me to want to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum
and hold it. And I think that is a large position in my portfolio. So maybe the BMNR one is a dump
ad. I should have just bought more ETH, but I don't know. We'll see. I'm just going through,
looking through my portfolio and what I find interesting. So if you guys have other topics that you're in, the Rivian one is a good position for me.
Did you guys know I created a portfolio separately?
I was challenged by Hamid.
I was only allowed to have four or five stocks in the portfolio.
And I'm down on a little bit because I did make BM&R the largest position.
But otherwise, in that, I added Rivian, SoFi, Robinhood, Meta, and that was the five.
What do you guys think?
Basically, I'm not going to touch this for 10 years.
Interesting.
And it's, yeah.
Or five.
Or a year or two.
We'll see.
But basically, I want one to be a 5X, one or two to be a 5X, or a 4X, and then the others are like,
you know, whatever.
You said Meta?
Yeah, Rivian, BMNR,
SoFi, Robinhood, and Meta.
Robinhood and Meta are two of my
biggest holdings. I'm with you
on those.
Yeah.
Rivian, we'll see the gamble, but
Rivian is the one I'm up actually 52% on Rivian, we'll see the gamble. But Rivian is the one I'm up
actually 52% on Rivian.
Not bad.
We'll see. Those were the ones I chose.
Call me stupid down below in the crowd.
I was dumb for putting BMNR as the largest
weight ink.
So down 40% on that so far.
I'm actually down 7% on the Metashares. For the record. So far, so far.
I'm actually down 7% on the MetaShares for the record.
So only up from here.
Famous last words.
What do you guys think of Rivian up here?
Obviously it was a little bit of an easier play, easier trade to say,
take, hey, it's undervalued and stuff like that a little bit ago but now we are over 20.
But longer the base, bigger the retrace?
Higher in space.
Higher in space, whatever it is, you know, I just went with it.
But is this the start of something or what level is you waiting to confirm that?
Rivian?
I don't know.
They've been such a tough company.
I mean, nice move here.
They're breaking out.
I think we're at a 52-week high, aren't we?
Got to be.
Yeah, 52-week high.
I mean, can't ask for much more for this uh 28 is a three-year high it's got a nice breakout in progress here you know i think 2806 is the
all-time high actually on it so you know it's it's perking up yeah i just wonder is it you
know they're just all-time high is like 128. Is it?
It's still down 80% from IPO.
Did this thing really IPO that high?
Wow.
Yeah, it did.
That's crazy.
Yeah.
But yes, it did.
My only concern with them is right now they're just an EV company, right?
And they're one of the better EV companies.
That's why it's moving here.
They did have some AI events and stuff like that.
They're trying to not beat it up there.
Is Tesla a car company?
No, it's not anymore.
That's the thing.
They have to be more like that to really move.
That's the point I'm making.
I'm just checking the thoughts.
It's just really quiet here.
Very, very quiet today.
It's a bit late in the afternoon.
It's been very quiet in the markets.
Justin says, you got to cut BM&R.
Don't bag hold to zero.
We got two people asking
any thoughts on BOJ tonight?
With BOJ being basically
confirmed rate hikes, what are we thinking?
Anyone BOJ watchers?
It's already known. I'm not worried about it.
This is known that they're going to do it.
I don't see the markets really expecting it.
Unless they do something
bigger than everybody's thinking.
Voss, is something you watch at all?
Japan?
Not at all.
Nice.
Cool.
You guys should leave some more comments down below if you guys
want and I can go through and read
some of them. I'm looking at my 52
week high list today.
I enjoy going through this a
bunch. The highest volume one
was Keycorp. Not that many
big names on here. Citi hit new 52
week highs. Citi Bank.
Elba
Morley, which is one that was talked about
yesterday a little bit.
Maybe that was a different space. Hilton's been another one that was talked about yesterday a little bit. Maybe that was a different space,
but Hilton's been another one that's been on here a good little bit as well.
Not too many popular names on the 52-week high list.
A little Barrick Mining Corp.
What's gold and metals doing?
Brian, have you been trading the gold names at all?
Metals? I know it was hot for a little bit.
I don't know what the last couple of days, weeks have looked like.
No, I don't really mess around with metals.
Yeah, I never did either.
I think I'm just set in my ways, but I just find companies just more interesting.
Yeah, I mean, so the ETFfs themselves are just not good trading vehicles
and the the miners again you know they're just they're not most of them aren't liquid a lot of
them are adrs and the problem with miners is that it's not just the spot price that affects it like
there could be a you know a civil war in angola or something there's all all these
different factors that come in and you could just wake up one day oil what's that i don't get the
oil guys i don't get the oil guys you're just like a you got to be geopolitical watching all
the time there's just so much random stuff yeah i mean there's something like there's some oil
names that that are liquid enough but i just you know that's not where i want to be so usually
when those things are hot i'm just stepping aside and waiting.
Or trading bros.
Trading bros.
Yeah, bros has been good.
It's up another 4% today.
Any thoughts on these guys?
What did he put in here?
Bitcoin to Tether.
I don't even know what I'm supposed to do with that.
Kava and Target.
We got any Kava watchers?
Do you know what I'm thinking?
Kava is one of the reasons, like, when I'm thinking, I'm a Kava fan as well, I'll say.
Food-wise, not the stock.
But it's up 6% today.
So Kava is in that group with CMG, a couple of their names, that just got beaten down so bad this year.
And we've been waiting for the tax loss selling to be done in those names.
And that's what it looks like.
Boy, MSOS has just fallen off a cliff.
Oh my God, 25%.
It's rough.
I swear to God,
pot bulls are the biggest losers in the world.
They really are.
You know what stock also
hit new 52-week hours today I'm seeing?
Madison Square Garden.
MSGS.
Little Knicks and Rangers.
Yeah.
Weed stocks continue to
dump a little bit.
Okay. We got a stock stock stamp on this up here.
Good.
You got any thoughts on Target, Tarjay?
We got any Target watchers?
I prefer Walmart.
I mean, Target still just – they're trying to recover a bit,
but they still have problems and, you know, nice little bounce on it.
Justin said – bro,in who said i was
basically said evan don't be dumb get out of bmr just said bro's about to break out of its year
long downtrend very strongly brian sent brian said yeah i mean not not quite it's uh I see that would be about 67, if it can break 67.
But yeah, it definitely looks better the last few weeks, months.
What's up, Sniper? How are you doing?
I'm all right, man. How about you?
Doing well. I'm doing well.
How are you doing?
I've been prompting people on, that was weird for me,
I was prompting people on Space at all and I wasn't getting any answers on it.
Have you got any thoughts on the space economy we've got coming up?
I know we've talked a little bit about Starfighters coming up and their IPO,
but just in general.
SpaceX, $5 trillion,'s some other stuff rocket lab also
doing cool stuff it's never been a cooler time honestly in the space sector um i have to say
i will get into the starfighters ipo in just one second and talk about that but there's a couple
things that happened just a little bit before then that were also exciting we all know that
spacex had the raise um rocket rocket lab is now launching
for from virginia um on stp 330 um they've done that twice this week i believe and they're shooting
some disk sets out into space right now that will be providing um space wi-fi which is pretty
exciting um obviously we know that uh as of recently it's been pretty profitable with companies shooting satellites into space at some high expenses.
But basically, you know, the whole entire thing is kind of changing and rewriting now with Starfighter stepping into the space and becoming publicly traded.
Starfighters is pretty much going to be actively launching smaller satellites at a much lower expense.
And they're going to be shooting these
things into space at a rapid rate. They're using the F-104 Starfighter, which I find extremely
interesting. I think that it's an absolute genius of an idea because this is a Cold War plane that
everybody knew would fly on the verge of space. You know, this thing could travel at supersonic
speeds, breaking the sound barrier with no problem. And, you know, this thing could travel at supersonic speeds, breaking the sound barrier with no problem.
And, you know, this plane was so mass produced that we even let Italy, we let the UK, we let France, we let lots of countries not only buy these planes, but they also were developing and building them there.
Thousands of units were built.
So there's lots of these things all over the place.
And now, you know, this is obsolete technology for warfare.
It's not really going to stand a chance against anything that's flying in the sky for just about
any military's defense. So what do we do with all these relics that we have? You know, because this
was such a mass produced plane that's sitting all over the place. It's in museums everywhere.
You know, there's a lot of rich collectors that just have them sitting around, you know,
rusting up and collecting dust. Starfighters was able to figure out that
this plane, because of its high altitude, this thing can fly over 110,000 feet, if I'm not
mistaken, can shoot satellites directly into space from flying on the edge of space. And,
you know, the coolest thing about this is, you know, that it does not need the JP-7 fuel,
you know, that most of these rocket ships need that is extremely expensive, you know, that it does not need the JP seven fuel, you know, that most of
these rocket ships need that is extremely expensive. You know, it's going off of much
lower quality, much more affordable fuel. And, you know, singular launch on rocket lab is only
going to, or I'm sorry, excuse me, not rocket lab on, um, on star fighters is going to only cost,
um, about $20,000 in fuel. And now I want everybody to kind of just think about when it comes towards
Rocket Lab launching in the Hungry Hippo Dome, lots of other operational costs with a lot of
these space companies, you know, it's costing millions and millions of dollars. And these guys
are now going to be doing it at a smaller volume, granted, but for a much lower price. And the
coolest thing about the F-104 Starfighter, aside from the fact that they're gonna have
a pretty easy time, in my opinion,
acquiring a lot of these, is that it's reusable.
They can reland this, they can repurpose it,
and a singular jet can shoot many satellites into space,
and it can launch many more times,
and much quicker and much more efficiently
than the original rocket ships
that are actively shooting satellites into
space. I can't even tell you how excited I am to see how this name trades. And they're planning
actively with the funds from this IPO to acquire more F-104 starfighters. They actively already
right now have the largest F-104 fleet. You know, they could practically form a little defensive
force themselves if they wanted to with these relic planes. But they're going to have no problem
with firing these. They're going to get plenty more of them. And I think they're going to be
shooting satellites into space at a rapid rate. Another also thing that's pretty cool about when
we're looking at fighter jets versus rocket ships, we all know air traffic control and airspace
clearance. And, you know, you have to imagine that when Elon is launching one of these rocket ships into space,
I don't know if there's anyone listening that travels frequently, but sometimes planes have to get rerouted.
Lots of different things are changed.
And, you know, it's a hectic thing for air traffic control, you know, to kind of clear all this airspace for rocket ships to launch into space.
Now, these guys are just taking off fighter jets.
You know, it's just, it's significantly easier.
You don't need 100 people to watch it.
Your checklist is much easier.
You're going to launch this in half the time and for a fraction of the price.
Granted, again, I said smaller satellites, but faster and higher volume.
satellites, but faster and higher volume. I am really excited to see what happens with this name.
I am really excited to see what happens with this name.
I want to ask you just more. Damn, these guys. Just in general, what do you think on the space
industry in general? What other stocks and names do you like in other things?
and just in other things?
Yeah, so I want to say that the first time
where I was generally convinced
that this space industry is going to be profitable
or has lots of potential
was when we were seeing in California
these wildfires earlier this year, late last year.
When this was happening,
we saw lots of Cybertrucks actually coming over
and we saw lots of Starlink deployment over there.
Now, for anybody who's not familiar with Starlink, they were kind of one of the pioneers of this space Wi-Fi and providing service to people on the ground from space and satellites.
Now, in terms of the operation and the severity of this fire, it was terrible.
And lots of internet was out,
first responders, everybody was having a very difficult time with this. And Starlink came in,
and they were a key player for this. At that moment, right then and there, when I was reading
about Starlink's role in the Los Angeles wildfires, at that point, I was really convinced that
there's going to be a lot more space development, and a lot of people are going to really start to
invest in this and build this out. So I'm going to have to go ahead and say that
that would be originally my original both uses here. I don't know exactly how profitable the
exploration and research of space in general is like as far as the NASA side of things goes.
in general is like as far as the NASA side of things goes but I can say that
with this rapid volume of satellites going into space and entering orbit I
think that it's gonna continue in general and obviously we have a lot of
key players in the space but you know we now have another one entering the space
and it's gonna get even more exciting
I want to shift the conversation a little bit.
We have some earnings coming up after the close today.
Nike and FedEx, you post your thread on those ones?
You got any thoughts on Applied Move?
Maybe we can even jump into EPS and revenue and stuff like that.
Absolutely.
You know, Nike is kind of the more interesting one, I think,
that most people care about today. We're expecting our Nike numbers at 415. When it comes towards Nike,
the bar is not that high. We're looking at 12.18 billion revenue, which seems very doable for Nike
and 37 cent TPS. When it comes towards the actual contracts and everything on the option side of things,
our implied move is a 5.97% or $3.96.
And when we look at our previous reactions, we could see plus 6.41%.
We could see plus 15.19% minus 5.46% and minus 0.21%.
When we look at the open interest on Nike, we're looking at 1,593,560 open interest.
Now, one of the more interesting things about Nike, it's only down 4.9% since the last report.
It's sitting at a $78 billion market cap, which looking at the last report, they were around 85.
You know, they're practically in the same exact spot as they were three months ago. Not much has
really changed. We have a new CEO coming in.
He's basically saying that we're going to have to completely rebuild before we can even go offensive.
So, you know, basically the biggest street around the question is, is how painful is this rebuild going to be?
And what exactly are we looking to see?
Now, the other big name that's reporting today that I know a lot of people care about is FedEx.
I know a lot of people care about is FedEx. FedEx comes out at 4.03 p.m. today. When we take a look
FedEx comes out at 4.03 p.m. today.
at FedEx, we're looking at a 5.12% implied move or $14.68. When we take a look at the previous
reactions behind FedEx, it doesn't get that crazy, but we see plus 2.32%, minus 3.27%,
minus 6.45%, minus 0.05%, practically a nothing burger and FedEx is coming into this report with 146,237
open interest now one thing that is different with FedEx and Nike is FedEx since the last report is
up 26.71 billion or excuse me 26.71% since the previous report their market cap sitting at 67
billion which is significantly higher than the last report they're looking cap is sitting at $67 billion, which is significantly higher than
the last report. They're looking at $22.83 billion revenue, which is not the highest quarter they
would have ever had. And they're looking at $4.09 EPS, which again, is not the highest quarter
they've ever had. It seems very realistic and very doable based on the previous reports for FedEx to
achieve this. Now, one thing about these guys is they're a little more cyclical. So when you do look at the revenue and EPS charges, it's
going to be a little bit more inconsistent. But again, very reasonable and doable numbers for
both Nike and FedEx. Nike is going to be a bit more of a turnaround story. And I think a lot more
people are going to be taking a look at this one. Now, the biggest question I have, and I think that
have. And I think that a lot of people are going to be looking at when it comes towards Nike
a lot of people are going to be looking at when it comes towards Nike earnings today.
earnings today. Just crash for a second. And the biggest question, you know, we're looking at a 5.98
percent implied move on the Nike earnings today. The biggest question that I personally have,
or that I'm really looking to see, is how wild are these moves going to be? And, you know,
very frequently on Nike, when we look at the last two reports, the option buyers have won.
We've seen moves that were greater than the implied move right there.
And so, again, that's some of the rare testaments to where earnings trades have worked out for option buyers.
But I'm interested to see if Nike continues to produce a good move on earnings.
But we shall see. That's pretty much the overall outlook on the earnings today.
What about a couple of the other names?
Are there any other smaller names that you're interested in?
That I'm personally interested in, whenever I want to see the rest of the earnings,
I always like to open up Earnings Hub and take a look right there.
There's not the most.
There's some small caps.
Heiko's reporting for those who are interested.
I don't know if we should talk about that one as much.
But, you know, if we're going to look at Heiko with Heiko,
we're looking at a $17.94 move or 5.82% implied move.
And on the previous reactions, we could see plus 8.78
percent plus 7.42 percent plus 13.88 percent and minus 8.68 percent um all four of the last
previous reports on hyco have been pretty wild moves and uh since the last report hyco is up
0.93 percent at a 17 billion dollar market cap. Practically the same place. I don't want to say it's exactly
right there, but again, we've seen just a little bit of a change right there. When we take a look
at HIKO, it actually has a really impressive revenue growth chart. And when we were looking
at this quarter, we're looking for $1.16 billion. From previous quarter, we saw $1.15 billion and
just pretty much the same place. When we look at the EPS, it's also continuing to grow.
They actually have beat EPS estimates 16 out of the last 17 quarters on HICO, which is pretty
cool to see. In terms of that, though, for the other small cap earnings that we were looking for,
we got BB reporting at 5.05 PM. We got KVH at 4 p.m. And that's pretty much all the ones that are really worth talking
about. Tomorrow morning, we have CCL, which is Carnival Cruise Lines. I'm sure that there's some
people that do track this one. Carnival Cruise Lines also does have some interesting numbers
behind there. With CCL, we're looking at a $1.60 implied move or 5.67%.
But what the interesting part about CCL is it's practically in the same spot.
It's down 7.69%.
But the open interest on this name is at $1,360,143 open interest.
That tells us that there's a lot of contracts resting on this name and that are sitting here.
So there's going to be a lot of people watching CCL earnings.
And that one is expected to come out tomorrow morning. I believe that's going to
be at 9.15 a.m. right before the market open, which is cool. But again, that's probably the
general overlook on the earnings today. I would have to say that in terms of everything that I've
looked at and in my perspective of the market, what's most exciting to me, I'm seeing some of my names that I personally track on a day-to-day basis reclaim some key
levels. I'm really enjoying seeing Kratos back into the 70s. I was very glad to add some more
of that into the 60s last week which is pretty cool. When I take a look at some of the general,
the large defense names, we can take a look at it. It's not the worst day ever.
Boeing's up 1.22%.
General Dynamics up plus 0.6%.
Some of them have a little bit of laggers.
But again, not the worst day for some of the growth names.
Palantir had a monstrous day coming back to the mid-180 levels.
I have to say that with the Palantir platform in general, I really like this big deal that they made.
The AIP platform is continuing to sit out of demand.
We're seeing it continuously over and over again, repetitive proof that its scale AI-driven workflows are continuing to outperform.
We have reports that basically they brought over $.18 billion in the last quarter through AIP. One thing that is a little bit
trickier when it comes towards Palantir, considering that Palantir is now the largest
defense contractor, when we're looking at breakdowns of their revenue.
Is it actually, what do you mean by that? Largest defense contractor?
By market cap, Palantir Technologies is the largest defense contractor.
Not getting the most money from the government, but I'm going to say the most,
the largest market cap right there. But when we're looking at Palantir, the one thing that
is a little bit trickier about this is when you want to see revenue by product, they don't always
supply all the numbers for obvious reasons. You know, they have some
different products like Gotham, which you don't know exactly which countries they're getting
how much money from. And you don't know exactly how much for obvious reasons. We do know that
more and more countries are switching over towards Gotham, which is also another benefit there.
And for those who are not familiar with Gotham, it's pretty much Palantir's AI that
is for military allocations. It decides where they should put their resources, where they should
position people, and where they should strike on the battlefield, and what angles they should
attack with. Just about anything you can pretty much think about there. Then they have another
side of it that's pretty much used for predictive policing. It will assess all kinds of people. It
has a known persons list,
and then it determines if people are a threat.
It's some pretty crazy technology.
I honestly have to say that
that's one of my favorite ones to read about.
I don't hear doing some interesting stuff in the stock.
At least the chart the other day was looking pretty good.
I haven't updated too much.
Obviously, today's stuff's looking pretty good.
Was looking better earlier. Stock talk, I see you joining us up here how you doing sir
i appreciate you sniper for all the thoughts there that was actually good
of course oh palantir looking pretty good
ah there you are logical right away as well what's up stock doc how you doing sir
doing good doing good
just um i had some appointments
today for some land
i was getting some
notifications and these were good ones
today amcor up 5% earlier
now it's a board now
we gave some of it back but still looking good
much better than the other day
yeah i mean mostly everything's up today,
so it's not a day where I'm going to really point out the action
and the individual name, but yeah.
I mean, have a good day for the portfolio, obviously.
Good day for most stocks, but still a,
I don't want to call it a dead cat bounce,
but still not the full bounce that you needed.
I will say at the lows, there was a fight put up today,
which is nice to see, you know, they didn't just let it fade to red,
which could have easily happened. Uh, bulls put up a little bit of a fight,
which is a little bit change in character. Maybe, uh,
we're still pinned below the nine and 21 EMAs though. So, um, yeah,
that's a concerning, I should say, but we we can that can change in a day you know you have to stay
nimble in like an environment like this where you don't know if the market's going to turn back
lower or if they're going to wake up back to the highs or if you're going to see some consolidation
you have to stay nimble so um i didn't jump at anything today. I didn't like,
you know, add anything back or, or add any new positions. Um, I'm just waiting for the action
to settle. I still have, you know, 13 names long. So, you know, I'm chilling in terms of
my exposure. If, if the markets do want to head back up, I have exposure to that, but, um,
My exposure, if the markets do want to head back up, I have exposure to that.
But yeah, I didn't feel the need to grab any more today.
If the markets resolve higher tomorrow, that'll be a really good sign to get a nice weekly close.
We are still defending the nine-week EMA at the lows of this week, which is another positive sign.
So there are incrementally positive signs, but I don't think you should get ahead of yourself
and just go full bearish or full bullish off of one or two days of action.
You have to just see how the trend shapes up.
Right now, the trend on the Qs is still in the short term,
I think down even after today's candle.
So you need to see a little bit more follow through on NASDAQ.
You were joking earlier in the week or you were serious.
We were saying that about CPI being a catalyst or something.
And it obviously was.
It came in 2.7, 3.1 was what was expected.
I still don't think it's the catalyst that's going to move us in either direction.
I still like what I was arguing yesterday is like, hey, the catalyst to the downside wasn't there.
Just apparently the catalyst to the upside isn't really there either.
This feels like we're in a chop market holiday season.
My mind goes to chop a bullish side a little bit
until we get a headline or something.
But we're just in an in-between period waiting for the catalyst.
There seems to be some doubt in this AI themes.
It's either you believe it or you don't at this point.
We're going to get a headline soon.
I don't think CP point. We're going to get a headline soon. Yeah.
I don't think CPI was that, though.
Although the market did move higher on it.
Micron and earnings.
CPI helped.
And I think Trump's speech last night was like, you know,
he was trying to bowl everyone up on the economy.
Did you look at the wheat stocks at all today?
Another Trump speech today.
Yeah, I was looking at them last night.
I actually posted the Tilray chart in our chat last night.
And that one had a nice rip off the open. I don't know how they closed, but I was looking at them last night. I actually posted the Tilray chart in our chat last night, and that one had a nice
rip off the open. I don't know how they closed, but
I was looking at those. I didn't trade them.
Not good today.
Oh, did they go red?
Dumped.
Oh, wow. That's interesting.
Tilray not as bad. Tilray down 5%.
That's so funny. They had a great morning. That's hilarious.
MSOS is down 25%.
Yeah, I didn't buy any
of them, but I was looking at some of their charts this morning. I thought they looked decent, but wow, I 25 yeah i didn't buy any of them but i did i was looking at some of their
charts this morning i thought they looked decent but wow i'm glad i didn't oh my god they really
did reverse is it because trump didn't say he's legalizing it today i guess that's why
there was some language in there they were like yeah like this is not legalization this is not
like whatever so i only some of these made like 35% intraday reversal.
Oh, my God, dude.
Oh, man.
See, that's why I don't trade meme stocks.
That's crazy.
Killaray, though, interestingly holding in slightly relatively better.
The chart looks good.
The chart looks good for what it's worth.
It looked better before.
It looked better before also.
It still looks good.
You never want to worry.
You never want to say a chart.
You never want to put an opinion on a chart based on how much
it's moving intraday. You always want to look at the structure.
The structure still actually looks good on Tilleray, but
it's not a stock I'm going to buy. I mean, I don't
buy stocks like that
typically, unless I'm trying to do
some kind of short-term
magic. But I do have
some ENS contracts coming up for exercise tomorrow
and some VIAV contracts coming up for exercise tomorrow.
So those weightings are going to go up in my portfolio.
ENS is actually going to be like a 20% weighting tomorrow after that,
which is the biggest weighting I've ever had in my portfolio
for a single position.
So, okay, we've had this talk before.
And actually, yeah, we've had this talk before on rolling,
but this might be a slightly different scenario
where maybe you'd rather just in a market
where you have a little bit of doubt
and want to raise cash and keep an exposure in a position.
You could probably keep that level of exposure
with a nurse as it is right now
and take some income in.
Yeah, so I originally on december strike had like over 100
contracts i've sold the vast majority of those you know to into profit so really i have just a
few coming up for expiry them and exercise but i mean you know each every 10 contracts is 150 000
in stock so you know if I exercise 30 tomorrow,
which is the plan,
that's going to add quite a bit of stock.
It's going to add another $450,000 in stock
to that position,
which is going to increase the weighting.
It's going to take it from like a 17
to like a 20% weighting.
So, yeah, I'm going to do that tomorrow.
I like ENS too much,
my favorite stock in the market.
So it happens to be a 20% weighting.
That's not by design either.
Part of the reason why it's gotten up so high in weighting is that it didn't go down during the November and October sell off.
Like if you look at the ENS chart, it just didn't move.
If you look at the ENS chart, it just didn't move.
So while other holdings were going down in price, ENS was staying steady and I had options leverage on it.
So the weighting climbed very rapidly.
I mean, I think even like mid-October, it was already up to 15%.
And sometimes weighting is not like, I don't do it intentionally in my portfolio.
Sometimes it's just not sometimes.
Mostly it just happens through price.
Like the winners get bigger rating.
You know, and it's part of the reason why, like, you know, stocks like Tesla and Amazon fell behind because the mid cap stocks in my portfolio outperformed them so dramatically.
Right. Like Tesla and Amazon aren't doubling and tripling in a year,
but a lot of the other stocks that I had did.
And so, you know, whereas Amazon, Tesla used to be like 10% weightings,
they're both like 4% weightings now because the portfolio has grown
and those other positions have grown so much.
So it's kind of like a, you know, portfolio weighting is not just,
it's not always like, oh, I put 10% in this position. It's going to be 10% of my portfolio
forever. No, if that position outperforms the other positions in your portfolio, it's going
to take up more weighting. And that's what's happened with Inersis. But I don't mind it
because I love that stock so much. You know, like I really, really love that stock and that company.
So I don't mind holding it into next year.
That's going to be one of my main plays of 26,
just based on where my portfolio is sitting going into next year.
That's going to be a stock that I have a lot of exposure to,
win or lose. So, you know, that's what I'm doing with it.
And then I want to ask you, I don't know,
did you look at Starfighters at all today?
I did.
I did.
I did.
That was sick.
That was actually quite the IPO run.
I mean, it came back a little bit.
It's back at $8 now, but still up from the IPO price.
Yeah, it's interesting.
I want to be able to dig into financials and do stuff forward,
but it was just cool to see that name going.
Sure, we'll talk about it going forward,
but yeah, nice moves there.
It was an interesting day in the space
because we had the Jared Isaacman come in,
we had the SpaceX News,
and obviously Data Centers in Space
is the new hot theme.
Will that happen or not?
Who knows,
but the market is trying to ideate about
it i actually sold out of my pl calls today from the earnings play should i have done it earlier
probably but i did get out uh uh today on that one for for a nice little uh little earnings move
so uh the data center and space team gave me a little bit of money i got made fun of when i
i was a little it was a little profits you know so there's nothing wrong with that sometimes yeah you made fun of me for the size of a little... It's a little... It's a little profits, you know? There's nothing wrong with that sometimes.
Yeah, you made fun of me for the size of the trade, because mine was like a little sports
bet.
I don't put that type of real money behind my place, because I'm dumb.
We've been at this point a bunch of stock talk around earnings.
We got Nike and FedEx.
I'm going to ask you what you think about them.
You're going to say you don't care, but I still kind of have to do it.
We do have Nike and FedEx earnings coming up
after the close today.
Are you excited?
I'm always excited,
but FedEx is worth paying attention to
just for the pulse on the real economy.
But yeah, I have no interest in Nike.
I love Nike as a consumer.
I own lots of Nike products.
I'm a very loyal Nike consumer,
but I do not like it as a business here.
So, yeah, I'm not interested.
I mean, I just generally don't own, like, apparel
and, like, food retail names at all.
But, I mean, Nike's...
Chipotle launched in this high-protein bowl, though.
That didn't get you excited?
Uh, but Nike's too expensive in a trailing perspective,
in my opinion,
for what they're doing and how they're being disrupted by companies like
ONON and by like Arcteryx and, you know, all these, uh, you know,
fast casual leisure and business casual and sports leisure
brands are in my view taking a lot of market share pretty rapidly and that's probably concerning for
nike but um they still have the best brand in the business i just don't see it as a compelling
investment i mean a lot of like neglected large cap guys out there I know there's a lot of the same people that like PayPal,
like Nike, which is an interesting point to this.
Don't call me out like that, dude.
I do like PayPal, but I don't have Nike.
Yeah, I don't like either of those stocks.
So, yeah.
Not interested.
That's fair.
That's pretty funny, though.
I see Sam Solid he's battling the
he's fighting the good fight
trying to get up on the spaces
Logical I see you up here
how you doing sir
we got a KB Homes
I know you talked about that
home sector a little bit before
I have no idea what this one does
any interesting logical
we got
an earnings after the clothes right now oh god I got it yeah I still didn't
hold on to it I mean it's up 10% so it held on to the after hours move but I
expected a much bigger move honestly just on those numbers because those
numbers like should be like that stock should be up 20% and it didn't make a new
all-time high I don't think today so it's a little like weird that it gets rejected right at the highs I mean it's
not a big deal but it is just I'd expect on those kinds of numbers that it should have been much
higher today um so yeah still fine doesn't matter um whatever right like oh wow it's under 250 I guess at the close you could stop me a lot of stuff got dumped
at the close man did it I didn't pay attention not really not really dumped I don't I mean I
don't know what you're like that dumped I mean like they had a little bit of uh the day was
fine a little bit of drawdown clothes I thought the day was wild i mean i actually think it was not wild i actually
think it's like very boring market honestly 16 vix those are some big moves yeah i mean that's true
um honestly my take on this right now is that i feel like the year is over that's kind of how i
feel like with all this trading it's like up down know, I think people have just called it a year. You know, maybe this selling is people degrossing or, you know, they're like, Okay, I made a lot of money on this stock. It's been a great year. I'm going to take some off the table. Oh, hey, you know, I'm down on this stock. I'll sell that to right, you know, right off some of the gains offset some taxes there. And it's just like, the action just kind of feels like meh. It doesn't
feel necessarily bearish. It doesn't feel necessarily bullish. I think, you know, having
you said it earlier, it just feels like sideways chopped. I would probably disagree with you
that you said it's slightly bullish. I think it's slightly bearish. But I mean, yeah, I would just
say sideways to slightly down is my expectation from here.
Just because like the way I'm kind of like seeing this spy is like, okay, you know, yesterday was a disgusting candle.
The volume and the selling for, you know, the last five days, we closed below the opening price.
So today's candle is red too.
You know, you rallied into the, you know, you gapped up, it was pretty low volume early in the day, not atypical.
But then you kind of reclaimed the 21 and then poof, get rejected, closed below it. I think Stock Talk said the word dead cat bounce.
Still feels that way.
You are above the 50 days, so it did reclaim that.
But that's what I mean.
You're just kind of like in the middle of like these kind of key levels it's like 50 day basically tells you
maybe you know longer term trend is still trying to hold on here 21 ema would tell you like the
strength of that trend i would say and you know that's it's below it. So it's kind of like long term trend, probably fine.
Near term trend kind of choppy and not quite strong.
If it was strong, we would have reclaimed the 21 EMA and just, you know, cruise tire.
So I don't think you're seeing that kind of action.
I guess how I'd probably chop it up is there are certain times when you have an easy dollar
environment.
And right now it feels like you're fighting tooth and nail to get it.
If you look at individual stocks, I mean, the index had quite a lot of volume today,
but individual stocks, although they were green, didn't have a tremendous amount of volume.
Only a few that I follow had above average volume today,
while the S&P definitely had above average volume as well as the Qs.
So, you know, I'm not, okay, look,
for example, I want to be as bullish as ever. You know me, I'll push 140% freaking tomorrow,
I don't care. But okay, like, if you can pull up a chart of BE, Bloom Energy, and this is just,
I'm going to use this as an example. This stock sliced through the 100 day yesterday,
this morning, it gapped up, finished day up 4 four percent whatever it was up like eight percent in the morning gapped up
and it got rejected at the hunter day so now it's back under it and it closed under it and uh you
know close kind of near the actually yeah it closed below the open today um but
the chart just looks like still broken like i'm not like for example like you know the be was kind
of like a leader uh name i would say during this recent high beta i wouldn't say speculative
because they have real revenues um you know the stock's down like 40, 50%. It's below the
100 day, tried to rally above, gets rejected, closes below, second time. The chart doesn't
look like a bottom. I look at the financials. I really want to buy an AI data center energy stock.
And so I consider Bloom Energy because people have told me about the business. It is good.
It's actually a pretty high quality business, But it's trading at 30 times gross profit.
So it's not cheap. And so that's kind of where I'm netting out is I think that
if you want to have an enthusiastic bull market, then names like BE, even at 30 times gross profit,
will still be a good long. But when names like BE continue to get dumped, then 30 times gross
profit is not a buy. So that's just kind of what I'm thinking. I would need to see a more bullish
backdrop and enthusiastic buying environment in the market for me to want to get long a name like
that at an elevated valuation. It's all fun and games until that stuff stops working. And then
once that stuff stops working, you got to get out of the way. So that's... We did get FedEx earnings, just out four dollars 82 cents 4 11 was the uh estimate so pretty big beat 23.47 billion
22 was the estimate yeah double beat they're pretty nice numbers
nice what's the stock the initial move on the stock was up two percent okay
planning on spedding off fedex uh fedex rate and in the foot and hear the date that he gave.
Interesting.
Yeah.
That's nice.
So FedEx and FedEx rate are going to spin off.
Look, I mean, fundamentally speaking, there's nothing like there's no reason why we don't
remain in a bull market.
I'm actually very constructive for 2026.
I'm just feeling like with the way that this market has been trading recently,
in the immediate term, it's kind of taking a breather.
And that's not a big deal.
And I'm not saying that there's a lot of downside or anything like that.
It's just setups aren't working as good.
Perhaps the market continues to chop sideways.
Individual names continue to go lower potentially
if they're elevated valuations or speculative.
They reset.
And then eventually they get back to prices and levels
and key supports where it's like
people start to get interested in them again,
especially as we ramp up into 26.
Because 26, you're going to get,
it sounds like a lot more housing market support,
which is going to free up a lot of liquidity,
boost the economy,
because housing is a pretty big factor in that.
It just has been frozen for a while.
You're going to continue to see AI spend.
I don't think that's falling off a cliff.
Clearly not.
So I'm not going to sit here and say that's peak cycle.
You're just seeing a reset in the stock prices that may have gotten a little bit
ahead of themselves. And the market is just digesting all this. So, you know, if setups
are working less, it's just not as easy of an environment as it was a month or two ago,
and or even four months ago, right? So that I'm just kind of being a little bit more patient.
Nothing is bad.
I actually think 26 will be a great year.
I've seen forward guidance.
They raised their forward guidance for FedEx up a little bit.
They just raised the lower end of the guidance a little bit.
So I'm telling you, just basically narrowing how much it was.
They also raised their full year adjusted EPS guidance.
Similar type thing, I assume.
Yeah, so FedExex our last i checked
was up like one percent ish we shall see and then based on prior stuff nike should be out in about
five or six minutes or so um so that should be coming forward in the next little bit but yep
fedex decent numbers across the board we'll see see something a little bit a little bit of a roll
out of one of their divisions but sam solid i wanted to come over to you. I know I saw the show. It was live
right before this. Shout out to the Solid Report.
Go down the Wolf account.
But yeah, what's
you catching your eye today? Any interesting
stuff in the tech world?
Any news stories that were standing out the most
towards you? I saw some NVIDIA stuff
as well, as always.
Thanks for throwing up. Appreciate it.
Yeah, yeah.
So I do a shout out there.
Yeah, no, the show is doing great.
I think that if anyone here doesn't know,
I usually stream around 1130-ish my time.
So what is that, like 230-ish for like an hour?
I go over most of the news that happened throughout the day
in case people might have missed it.
Some people are on lunch hour, whatever it is.
And I just generally give my thoughts on the market.
But yeah, I mean, for the most part,
I'm not short-term bullish right now
and probably teetering around being short-term
to medium-term bearish.
But I mean, if you look at like the monthly chart in SPY,
like there's absolutely nothing to be bear bearish. But I mean, even look at like the monthly chart in SPY, like, there's absolutely nothing to be
bearish about. But still, I think there's gonna be some good
opportunities coming up, getting to some other companies and
everything. And I prefer not to be too active. When things are
like very choppy like this, I've been like some hedges like I
got I got I got a couple of hedges out right now. But very
small size of portfolio, with market drops, I'll make I'll probably couple of hedges out right now, but very small size of portfolio
if the market drops, I'll make, I'll probably be able to capitalize off and then be able
to deploy that cash into some stuff that I want to buy.
And if it doesn't, if the market makes an all time high, that'd be great.
I won't need to really worry about the hedge that much.
In fact, if the queues recover, I think you need to say go above like 3, 14 or 16 or something,
then I'll probably close it out once things look really good.
But right now, I don't know.
I think the market is just indecisive of the direction it wants to go in right now.
And I'd rather be covered a little bit to the downside if that does happen.
I mean, today was a great day.
It was great to not see red across the board in a lot of positions that I have.
So today was actually a really good day.
And for the most part, I mean, a lot of the stocks that I own are actually very
green today. In fact, in the last couple of weeks on Semiconductor, actually, it didn't even down
that much. The only problem is that I own a lot of Amazon, and that isn't necessarily painting
the greatest picture right now, but it is green on the year by 2%. So, you know, I think keeping Amazon green in the year will look really good just for me,
just from a competent standpoint. But at the end of the day, I already know Amazon's gonna be a
great company long term. And a lot of the things that I own right now are very strong positions
that I've done a lot of research on. And I know that if we do have a downturn, whatever it is,
because no one knows what's going to happen,
then I wouldn't mind holding on to.
And I've already went through a lot of the holdings of my portfolio.
Stock Doc talks about a lot, like, make sure you know everything you own,
make sure you like the charts and whatever.
And I've looked at all the positions of my portfolio,
and they all look really good.
They're all trading above the 200 moving averages.
They're also on a bullish short-term, medium, and long-term trend.
And fundamentally, I know about,
really know the sector that it's in.
I know how the sector reacts and whatever.
And for the most part,
like the short to medium-term stuff that I've held to the upside,
I really cut a lot of those last Friday.
And only because not only were the indices
not really looking too strong at that point,
but also those individual charts
were not looking good at all.
I had a swing position in Oscarcar that i cut like around 17 bucks and honestly in hindsight yeah
it was good but if the thing went to like 24 bucks well that would have sucked but it didn't
right like it's just like this probability that you put on a lot of charts in certain sets or
whatever the short and medium term but the long-term stuff it's like i don't see a reason
to sell a lot of the core holdings that i have, right? Like, I don't think, not even just the price performance, but if you
look at the entire EV market, you see Rivian, you see Rivian near 52-week highs today, up about 10%.
You see Tesla near all-time highs, not new all-time highs, but near all-time highs today.
And you saw the $19. billion dollar investment from ford recently like
this is very bullish for evs especially with rates coming down after today's cold cpi report it just
means that rates the probability of rates coming down are increasing and people a lot of people
are holding off and purchasing a lot of these vehicles and evs because they want the lower rates
they want they want to see the deals and everything or maybe they want some the economy to turn back
whatever it is but at the end of the day,
one way or another,
we're going to turn toward EVs.
Like it's going to be all over the road.
It might not happen tomorrow,
but it's going to happen eventually.
And that's a thesis for On Semiconductor
and a lot of the EV companies
that people own out there
is because that's going to eventually happen.
On Semiconductor,
providing the power chips
for a lot of these EV companies
is very bullish for the company.
And I still,
I still think the company
is actually pretty cheap today
compared to its prospective valuation
and its reacceleration of growth.
It's been decelerating growth for quite some time.
And I think we saw the inflection quarter last quarter.
I think we're going to see the inflection quarter next quarter.
And I think the market's going to be chasing it.
So I'm continuing to hold that one.
Zeta, continuing to hold that one as well um i would like to add to it if it drops below 16.50 um but i have a decent size position in it so i'm going to continue holding on to that one
my keys up what did that what happened there 53 cents beats 48 cents. Revenue 12.43 billion. 12.21 billion, slight beat on that one.
Stocks all kind of all over the place basically flat down a little bit. China revenue was down 17%.
Oh, that was probably the number that I'd be looking at, China revenue.
I'm surprised they didn't bought them.
But yeah, I mean, earnings season is basically over
for almost all the companies that I own.
It was actually pretty interesting because Logical's commented on this on Twitter a lot lately,
was that you had Rubric, which is actually trading where it was before the earnings,
or at least a little bit above where it was before the earnings, or at least a little
bit above where it was before the earnings, had that massive 25-30% move, it just undid
the whole entire move with the fundamentals of actually improved in the company.
And these are the things that I kind of take a look at closely that I'm just like, hmm,
kind of interesting to see that maybe this is something to lever up if we get back in
the bull market, but it's hard to throw on size and margin and leverage if we don't
get that bullish momentum back. I don't know which calls to buy or when the market might
stop being this chopping phase. Because if you're buying directional calls,
you want the market to propel in that direction at velocity, right?
And if we're going sideways, you're not going to capitalize off it.
And it's very likely the market moves sideways.
A lot of these companies might either move sideways or slightly up,
but not enough to capitalize off of those calls.
So it's like, it's kind of difficult at this current juncture to be like,
hey, I'm going to buy a lot of this stock right now.
I'm going to buy some leaps and whatever.
It's like, because we don't know
what the market doesn't even know what it wants to do.
And I'd rather buy leverage
in a directional bullish trend
if that's happening.
But until then, I'm 15% cash.
I'm just going to hang out, right?
And if the market has a day like it is today,
chances are a lot of the position of my portfolio
is still going to go up.
Like Adobe is still trading at a really attractive valuation.
And the fundamentals surrounding that company
are probably not as bullish
because people, or the sentiment around it,
probably because people think AI is going to eat up
all of itself.
But it's like, that's not showing up in the numbers.
The numbers look great.
So show me the money, right?
Like it's just, you have the sentiment bad,
but you have the fundamentals on financials
still looking good.
The chart looks a lot better
than they did a few weeks ago.
I don't know.
It's probably something
I want to hold on to there.
You know, so,
but that's just really what I'm seeing.
I kind of want to wait
and see what happens to the market.
I agree with,
I agree with logical.
I think the year is done for a lot of people.
Today was a low volume day.
So you're going to have all these massive moves in the market
because there really is no volume to prevent it from moving one way or another it doesn't take
that much yeah go ahead real quick everything i've loved everything you said today but today
was not a low volume day at all did you see smp volume was it not no i didn't look at it i thought
i thought you said it was a little volume earlier but i haven't checked on it today the indexes had
extremely high volume it's the uh individual names that had low volume generally.
Okay, my bad.
Yeah, no, you're good.
But I mean, I was really surprised that VIX is at 16
and you're getting these huge moves on the indices.
Like, it's really weird.
I would expect this to happen with VIX in the 20s.
Well, nobody…
I guess no one's hedging.
Yeah, no one's hedging.
Yeah, I guess not yeah there would
be that derivative for being probably a good time to be hedging I guess right
well I can't say that I'm not hedged so but I mean if the market dumps makes a new lower
low tomorrow I don't think those hedges gonna work as good as I hope they will
like even though the hedges are good and everything, but like hedges are not made to make you profit on the way down. Hedges are there to hedge your
bid on your portfolio or hedges drawdown. That's just it. In my perspective, like when people think
like, oh, let me buy puts in this company. It was like, they want to have a green portfolio
the next day. Right. And it's like, no, that's not what I'm trying to do. I want, I want to make
money off the hedges, of course, but I'm going to make money so I can sell those hedges and buy stocks.
Right?
Because otherwise, I'm not a directional trader with full port.
Like, that's not how I function.
It's very difficult for me to sit here today.
And if someone tells me, hey, the market, you know,
the economy is doing bad, whatever, you know,
I'm not going to be like, okay, let me sell on my Amazon.
Like, that's not how I function.
I'm going to hold Amazon for the long term.
Right? Like, I'll hold Amazon through be like, okay, let me sell all my Amazon. Like, that's not how I function. I'm going to hold Amazon for the long term, right?
Like, I'll hold Amazon through any drawdown because guess what?
Amazon has overcame a lot,
well, not a lot of the recessions,
but it's overcome the great financial crisis.
It's overcome the past two recessions
we had in 2022 and 2020.
And it'll overcome the next one.
It's just a freaking giant.
Like, those are the ones
where I know I'm going to hold for the long term.
And then the short-term stuff, I don't know if the market turns over then i already cut
them last friday i almost want to make a call i just saw a pretty interesting chart from somebody
who posted but basically this action right now kind of looks like uh in xlk looks like they're
comparing um december 2020 to like uh from to like now on xlk which would mean you'd bottom
like in a few percent lower from here um but if that's the case then 26 is setting up to be like
a 2021 potentially that'd be interesting i mean i'm pretty wild i mean it's hard to judge what's
going to happen here because i've seen so many of those charts where they compare it to like two different charts.
I mean, and the market just changed its mind tomorrow.
Like it's just, it's so hard to tell.
Like you said before, like this isn't 2008,
this isn't 2000, it's 2025.
And that's what it is today, right?
It's going to make whatever moves today.
And I personally think the market is way different
from what it'll be in the previous year
because you have different money in there.
You have different algos.
You have the faster response times
whenever it comes to new news in the market.
You have news actually getting to people faster
than it did 20 years ago.
That's going to continue to get a lot faster.
And I don't know where the market's going to be in 100 years.
But I feel like in 100 years,
it would just be very difficult to manually manage a portfolio.
But anyways, I digress.
I don't want to get ahead of myself.
This is where we are today.
I think 26 is setting up to be a really good year.
Talk, talk.
I want to hear your thoughts on that conversation there.
I know you've been, it's an interesting place right now.
And I'm curious on your conversation there. I know you've been... It's an interesting place right now, and I'm curious on your latest feelings.
Yeah, I just think...
I think all that's overcomplicated.
I don't think you need to give a shit
about the volume on the indexes.
I don't think you need to care about...
Especially day-to-day volume on the indexes.
That's way too nuanced.
And you're going to fake yourself out
more than you're going to give yourself aid
in your analysis by doing that, in my opinion. All that matters is do you consistently hold the trend, which
is best informed by the moving average. It's the simplest way to look at the trend. That's what I
do. You can look at a trend just through price as well if you want to draw lines.
But you pay attention to the 50-day moving average, the 21 EMA, the 200-day.
You pretty much ignore everything else.
And you just pay attention to structure around it and how price reacts around those spots.
And if price reacts well around those spots, you're probably in a bull market.
If price reacts poorly around those spots, you should probably put some caution on.
If price reacts poorly around multiple of those spots, then you should probably put some hedges on.
It's that simple. Everything else is just like, some hedges on. It's like that simple.
Everything else is just like, it's too much.
It's doing too much.
So are you a hedge?
Nope.
What would hypothetically happen?
We took it right back.
I took exposure off.
Look, there's more.
Saying are you a hedge is an interesting conversation because there's multiple ways to control risk, right?
I have reduced the beta of my portfolio substantially in the last week by reducing a significant amount of options exposure to the long side, right?
So I went from, what was I at?
18% of the portfolio in options at the peak.
And now I'm down to like 10%
So that's a big change in terms of the beta of the portfolio I did that because I didn't like how quickly my performance came off the highs
That was mainly due to the pullback and am core, but it was you know
Obviously other holdings pulled back as well
But mainly do that the pullback and that, is why I came off the highs.
But I didn't like the speed at which it happened.
So I wanted to reduce beta.
That was it.
That was the only decision.
It had less to do with the market breaking down.
I was just like, oh, portfolio's a little high beta here,
a little higher beta than I'd like.
Let me take off some options exposure.
And that's what I did.
But if the weekly chart in the sb500 breaks down then yeah i'll put on hedges but i wouldn't even really interpret them as hedges at that point
it'll be a directional trade right like it'll be i'll size it as a trade not as a hedge
so if the weekly breaks down on the indexes next week, I'll probably short RK. I don't know for sure, but probably RK.
And I'll short it on like over a two-month basis.
Not like, you know, I won't buy like weekly puts.
But that's when I think the actual weekly structure is breaking down,
which hasn't happened in a while.
So we're a ways away from that before I get that level of caution.
But at this point, my goal is just to protect performance in the end of the year and not let go of the stocks that I think can do well next year, which is what I've done.
I've narrowed down the portfolio to 13 positions.
Most of my weight is in like four or five of them.
You know, ENS, Amcor, Vav, OSS, and a handful of others for most of my weight is um but
that could change rapidly i mean there's like two or three other stocks that i like here
that i haven't owned all year that i like for next year you know once i narrow down my research
on that there's probably one or two positions that I may either open up into the end of this year or at the beginning of next year. But simple is better. Simple is always better. The more data
you start factoring into your technical or your fundamental analysis, the worse stock picker you
become, in my opinion, and the worse your portfolio management becomes. It tends to make people too
fickle. Me and Logical were kind of talking about this this morning too.
We were texting back and forth,
but I sort of brought up a similar thing to him.
I think I'm a guy who believes that complicated technical analysis is bad.
Technical analysis.
I think very, very simple observation of price structure
is the best you can do consistently.
And I think once you start adding layers onto it, those layers have a tendency more so to betray you than they do to aid you in the deductions that you make.
That's what I have found over years and years of doing this every fucking day.
Like, I'm a young guy, but I've done this every day of my life for like over
a decade, just staring at tickers flash on my screen. Um, so pretty much my entire adult life
was just like observation of price. And so maybe it's hard to think of price that way. If you don't
have the instinct and experience to think about price that way. But over time, what I have found is that successful traders let go of layers as opposed to adding layers on.
They relieve themselves of layers of analysis and lean more on instinct and very, very like first principles type of analysis is what I've found to be better.
And I also think that it makes you less stressed.
Like I'm never stressed like in markets.
I don't mean that like in a cocky way.
I mean like I'm just always even keel because I lean on my instinct and experience and not
on like the volatility and all that the volatility, know shake my confidence in my experience so yeah I think you
have to keep it simple and mark especially when markets get choppy
because that's when people reach for nuance people reach for nuance when
markets get choppy because they feel like they can't decipher it right like
ah like I don't know what's going on I need to find I need to like reach for
straws to to confirm my bias essentially is what they're doing.
That's, I don't think that that's productive. You know, um, sometimes you can just,
sometimes it's as simple as saying, I don't know what's going to happen here. The markets are at
a pivot point or at an inflection point on the daily and weekly charts. Um, you know,
there's room for downside on the monthly. And I
don't know what's going to happen here. I think the markets are at a point of indecision. I'm not
going to put on shorts, but I'm also not going to pick up more long exposure. I'm going to take
off, lower my beta. That's what you should be doing. When you're not sure what the markets
are going to do, you don't have to put something directional on. You could also just say, look,
I need to just reduce my beta so that, you know, if we whip up, cool, I still have exposure. But if we whip down,
I'm not going to get dragged down and blow up my performance for the year or blow up my portfolio.
And one kind of pushback I get a lot is I even tweeted this earlier, the tweet that I put out
this morning where I said, I have a rule that I don't let stocks go red on me.
There are people in the comments that are like,
well, this doesn't work for investors or whatever.
Yes, it does.
It does work for investors.
Just because you're an investor doesn't mean you shouldn't have rules.
You know, super performance comes from this really fine balance
of having rules and also knowing when to break them.
And that sounds like facetious.
It sounds like, dude, you're just taking both sides there.
But no, having rules for 90% of your positions
and occasionally having tremendous confidence in a position
and breaking those rules or flexing those rules slightly,
that's part of the game.
I have rules that I'm very, very strict with for nine out of ten stocks.
And then there's one out of ten stocks where I'm like, look, I'm not.
Yeah, I broke down below the 21 email, but I'm not selling it or whatever.
You know, that's just an example.
So, yeah, keep it simple.
Stupid is my favorite phrase for the markets.
But everyone should really keep it simple.
Once you have learned how to identify structure in price,
and what we mean by structure is your ability to identify supports and resistances
and the building of price through and above those supports and resistances,
that's market structure.
And you can look at it through the lens of price and volume and moving averages. You can look at it through the lens of like price and volume and
moving averages you can look at it through the lens of more complicated indicators if you need
i don't think you need anything more than that but for me i look at it that simply through the
lens of volume price and uh and moving averages really as a guide moving averages aren't they
don't tell you anything but they make it easier to spot the trends by just flipping a chart on, right?
That's why I encourage new traders to put moving averages on their charts, not because it's a cheat code or anything.
But when you put moving, you have a chart up with just price and volume, let's say, and then you flip on your moving averages, you can very quickly and instinctively spot the trends.
quickly and instinctively spot the trends. You know, and you can very quickly and instinctively
spot things like EMA crossovers when you know that a trend is flipping, or at least it's a
decent indicator of what a trend is flipping, and things like that. You can take immediate cues.
It just makes it, moving averages just make charts easier to read more quickly. That's what the
usefulness of them is. They're not some magic-like tool to make you a million dollars. That's what the usefulness of them is. They're not some magic like tool to make you a million dollars.
That's where people misunderstand them.
They give you a general idea of trend, general idea of areas of support.
That's what they're useful for.
You know, low volume, 21 EMA pullbacks, things like that.
So it can be useful for.
But overall, what you're looking at is just structure of price.
Is price defending the local highs you know price gaps up through a
point of resistance and then comes back down is price defending those previous highs that's like
an example of structure observation you know or did price gap up fade the move and is now attempting
to recapture those highs and failing that That's like a sign of poor structure.
I can go on and on about little examples like that.
But over time, you should, after five, six years of doing this,
you should be able to just look at a chart and say bullish or bearish,
like just in the snap of a finger.
And if you're not there yet, it's usually a product of having too complicated of a
lens you're looking at too many things or it's a product of just not understanding basic charting
101 which you have no excuse for any like no one has any excuse to not understand what moving
averages are what they mean what volume is what it means what and like the basics about price
analysis you have no excuse you can learn that in one weekend.
So either you don't know charting 101, which if you don't, go learn this weekend,
or you have too much shit on your chart.
I would say 80% of the people that are lost are in one of those two camps.
And so you should find yourself, in my opinion, not in the middle, but you should find yourself proficient in VPA, basic VPA, volume price analysis, and have a basic understanding of price structure and how to identify what is healthy or constructive price structure versus what is unhealthy or destructive price structure once you have like a
handle on that you'll be able to like last time i went through i don't know 120 charts and it took
me like an hour you know just flip through daily weekly monthly cool scan oh you know this is
breaking down who will take two or three notes flip flip flip flip flip and like you know i don't
know maybe an hour and a half or whatever.
For the most part, the vibe I was getting before yesterday
was daily chart looked like, hey,
they're getting to this point.
Maybe it broke a little bit,
but the weekly charts did look intact.
Yeah, the weekly charts are like trying to hold up
in a lot of instances.
They don't look great, but they're trying to hold up.
They're meeting some overhead resistance.
The monthly charts, in my opinion,
look great on a lot of stuff.
So could that mean pain in the short term ahead and in the next few months we turn around and rally back to the highs and slip back into bull market? that or we could get a really ugly monthly close this month in which case you would have daily
weekly and monthly charts breaking down on market leaders and that would be a bad sign and that
would be a forewarning for key one of next year we'll see there's there's a lot of clock left
you know there's 12 days left before the end of the year before the close of the monthly candle
and then we'll see if this monthly candle strong, you're still in a bull market, period. That's subjectively true.
You get a strong monthly close in December, you're in a bull market. If you don't,
you're on the verge of similar technical signals to what we saw in late 21.
So you are at an inflection point in markets, which is why it makes sense to not be super
aggressive here and makes sense to not be super fickle here. Like, as a market participant, you will always have a
bias that will be ranging anywhere from bullish to neutral to bearish. In CHOP, your goal is not
to move your bias rapidly. That's how you get trapped or locked out because you let one chop candle flip your bias and then
you let the other chop candle flip your bias back and then you let the other chop candle flip your
bias like no one can do no one can do that consistently you're going to get either locked
out or you're going to sell a stock that then locks you out or you're going to sell to at the
bottom and buy at the top or you're going to do any number of bad things if you do that so instead you should shift your bias incrementally which is to say okay let me
let price escape from the area of chop before I set my bias so if you have the
S&P 500 ranging let's say you know 1% range for two weeks okay up down up down
or whatever let's say 2% range to make it more realistic
Let's say that's happening for about a week and you're like, okay, look I can't you know
Some of you shorter term traders probably get really annoyed by that. Oh look, I can't catch an overnight swing I keep getting stuffed on a gap down the next morning and then buying a gap up and yada yada yada
If you're in that position
You just ask yourself and say okay., let me let price escape from the chop, either to the
downside or the upside. And if price escapes from the chop to the downside, then you know,
that is market telling you in the short term that, you know, the trend is still down. And if price
escapes to the upside, then you're like, okay, cool, party back on. That's what you should be
looking at. But very often in moments like this, people want to be first to the moon. They want to
catch the very first gap up when the markets return to favor.
And I just don't think that's a smart thing to do.
And there were some stocks I was looking at today, too.
I was talking with Mystic about some stocks, chatting with them today.
I'm not going to name the stocks.
But I was mentioning some of them that I liked, that we both liked.
And I was telling them, I was like, look, I'm going to wait for a higher price.
And a lot of times when I tell my non-technical friends that, they're like, what do you mean?
You want to buy it at a higher price?
Yeah, I want to buy it at a higher price when the chart looks better.
I want to pay six or seven percent higher for the equity when the chart looks better because the alternative is buy it under the moving averages and just hope
That you're buying it before a reversal candle
Alternatively you the stock just keeps going down now. You're like fuck. Well, I got a bad entry
Now I don't know how much lower can go because prices pin between all moving averages
You know, so you don't have a definitive
Area of support from a trend standpoint either.
So then you're just sitting on a stock that you entered at the wrong time, now watching
it bleed, and you're just waiting and hoping for this gap up that turns the 9 and 21 EMAs
around.
That's not a winning strategy.
You know, what's much better in my view is, hey, I like the stock.
Let's wait.
Let's watch it.
Ooh, cool.
7% gap up.
Recaptured the 9.
You know, 9's below the 21 in this case the truck start stock downtrending so you're like all right let
me wait for it to consolidate okay boom another candle three or four days later stock recaptures
the 21 now you let it consolidate a little bit and now you have a stock that's above the nine
and 21 looks like it's bottoming and it's giving you a much clearer entry an entry that you can
risk off the 21 ema boom then you take that entry that's a much better
entry yeah it might stock might be seven or eight percent higher but it's a
better entry because you can manage it better you can manage against it better
so like these are simple rules that will just make your performance better you
can choose not to follow them you can be like I'm an investor none of this stuff
matters to me cool keep buying stocks at shitty
prices you know you don't have unlimited money no one does and if you go look at
the comments on that post that I tweeted earlier today where I was like I'll just
pin it at the top there's a bunch of investors in there and they're like well
stock talk this doesn't matter if your investor I don't do this for an
investor if I have a confidence and I'm an investor, I just keep averaging in.
This isn't relevant for investors.
Yes, it is.
Yes, it is.
When you're buying 10,000 shares at $7 versus buying 10,000 shares at $12 is very different.
The same amount of capital will get you nearly double the shares. It does matter.
If you want to compound wealth, it does matter. And like, on top of that, if you buy at the wrong
price, you are opening yourself up to being shaken out of the position. And no matter how
smart or confident or big ball do you think you are, you're not going to hold through those types
of drawdowns. So all of these things matter price structure
matters entries matter all these things matter but you should approach them with
the simplest lens possible and the least noise possible don't read your Twitter
feed and look what the sentiment is don't look at the day-to-day volume on
the major indexes and ask yourself if it's good or a bad sign don't do these
these things these it's too much a bad sign. Don't do these things.
It's too much nuance.
Simplify the approach.
Look at what you own.
Look at the technical structure of what you own.
Understand what you own.
Make sure that there's enough thematic diversification across your portfolio
that no one theme can kill you.
And then just rock and ride and hedge when you need to.
What's up, Sam?
All right.
So I know you were talking about not adding the stocks when they're breaking
down or whatever it is, but what about for core positions? So let's say, for example,
Nebius is a core position for you. The chart looks pretty bad right now. All right. It's
still holding structure on. Yeah, it looks bad from the weekly and daily. On the monthly,
that's okay right
but what is there a point where either you would not add to nebius or you would cut it i wouldn't
add to nebius anyway it's three times the price i bought it out okay so like let's say it goes
back down to 25 bucks what's your plan of that yeah i'll buy it at 25 bucks i don't think it's
going back to 25 but i'll buy it at 25 bucks i'll buy it at 35 bucks i might even buy it at $25. I buy it at $35. I might even buy it at $45. But I'm not going to buy it here.
In other words, you would not sell.
I love Crate.
I love Crate.
I'm not buying here, though.
$65 going once.
Yeah, $65 might be a pretty good spot because you're going to read that from Microsoft.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, maybe I'd add calls.
But I don't, like, I'm not a scale-in guy.
And that's one where I differ very much from a lot of other pro traders and investors.
Like I don't scale in or scale out very often.
I don't average up or average down very often.
Sometimes I do with high conviction positions, but not very often.
And what I do is I do a ton of research, months of research,
and then I just buy the stock in size.
That's what I generally do.
Now, if I'm wrong on my entry, I'm wrong and I get out.
Like if it's a high conviction position,
I'm taking 5 plus percent of my portfolio in it,
which maybe it doesn't even need to be that high conviction for that.
But if it's like if it's over five percent of my portfolio, that's a lot of money.
And so for me, I'm not going to like allow those positions to go red on me ever.
Those size positions like no, if it's if I own it in one percent size and it goes against
me, OK, fuck, whatever.
I don't care.
That's like nothing.
But if it's five percent, seven percent or ten percent plus you know
which I have I have many positions like that those positions know it's just not
even an option for me because I'm risking too much of my portfolio right
and so no I don't I don't like buy anything really when it's materials above my cost base materially above my cost basis I don't buy anything really when it's materially above my cost basis.
I don't because then I'm opening myself up to being shaken out of the position during a market crash.
I'm not a day-to-day trader.
If I was, then a lot of this stuff wouldn't matter.
But because I hold stocks for many months and in some cases many years, I have to be ready for insane volatility.
Anything can happen. Like over a five-year period, I could have a stock I love that goes down 70%.
If I don't have the right cost basis, I will not be able to hold through that.
And if I just let my conviction get in the way and say, wow, I love this company,
I'm just going to be buying it and buying it and buying it and buying it on any pullback,
you are going to bring your cost basis up high enough
that you will not be able to hold through a market crash.
And so, no, I don't do that.
And my cost basis are so deep.
Advantages are so deep on my legacy positions
that it won't matter.
I own Tesla at 19.
I own Robinhood at 19.
I own Amazon at 88.
I own Kratos at 20.
I own Nebius at 23.
I own LEU at 96. These are very advantageous
cost basis. If the stocks ever get back to these prices, I'll just double down. But the only
scenario in which that would happen, in my view, would be a market crash. And, you know, like even
Robinhood during the April crash, which was which was a crash, it brought us all the way down to the
50 month moving average on the S&P 500. It was a short crash, but it was.
Even Robinhood was still like 85% above my cost base at the lows,
but it fell to 35 in whatever it was,
February or March or whatever the lows were.
I was still green on it, even after it fell from 100 to 35.
Like, I was still up 88% on my shares.
So, like, that's the difference. that's why cost-based advantage matters so much and why emphasize it so much and the short-term traders
the guys who are all cash at the end of every week mock that because they don't understand
the value of psychological advantage over long periods to them it doesn't matter because they're
like well dude just sell it and get back in later right but you can't do that with core positions because then you're constant your back is constantly
against the wall on cost basis and the next bout of volatility if you sold the lot you had at 23
at 50 and then got back in at 60 the next bout of volatility you may very well sacrifice your cost
basis and be out of the stock and then then one day, maybe they report an earnings report, the stock goes up 40%.
Boom, you're locked out.
Right?
Which is why very often when I do get out of stocks, if I think there's an earnings report coming up, I get back in.
Like P-Lab, for example.
Okay?
P-Lab, I sold in October.
Got back in the week before earnings.
The stock went up 40% on earnings.
I captured that move.
And then I sold it.
I'm like, boom, okay, I got my 40% move. And I sold it this week. So if I'm going to miss a potential catalyst, then I'll make sure to reposition myself in a high conviction name
like that before the catalyst emerges. But I mean, that's a matter of astuteness and being,
you know, observing the names that you want to be in.
But yeah, to answer your question, no, I don't do that.
I don't like buy stuff at arbitrary prices.
Like I think most everything in the market is under is overvalued here.
And in May, I thought a lot of stuff was undervalued.
And so in May, I was buying a lot.
And I have not bought anything really in the,
in terms of the same level of significance since August, July,
something like that.
I bought stuff, but not in the same level of activity that I had in May or June,
because usually there's a quarter a year where you get really,
really sick opportunities.
One quarter a year, maybe.
Maybe if that.
Some years you won't even get.
Like last year, I don't even think there was any great value grab opportunities in terms
of like a bunch of stocks being cheap.
In May this year, I think, May and April this year, there was an amazing opportunity.
But you might get a quarter a year where a bunch of stocks are cheap that you want to
own.
You have to capitalize on that you have to and if you don't you risk getting trapped
out of a lot of those stocks with cycle or you risk buying them at the highs and
getting buried like so many people did in September and October like the
inflows in September were insane and then that October and November pullback
and individual stocks killed people blew up accounts you know people bought were
buying Nebius at 130 Robin underhood at 140, Bloom Energy at 140, and just they got destroyed.
All those stocks are down 50% from the highs, 60%.
So, yeah, when you buy matters, how much you buy matters, your cost basis matters, your distribution across thematic exposures matters.
All of these things matter if you really want to hold a portfolio of good stocks for a long time and super perform.
And the last part of it is really where a lot of these rules come in, like super performance, which is what everyone wants.
People want to do these multi-hundred percent return years on their portfolio.
Take it from a guy that has done it two years in a row
and has done it many times before in my career i've put up triple digit performances on the
entire portfolio not only one or two stocks but owning 10 to 15 sometimes 20 stocks that's hard
to do but it's easier to do over time as your instincts improve.
And like I hope every decision I made this year, almost all the good decisions I made this year were a product of instinct more than they were a product of any kind of data in a vacuum.
More than the charts or more than like the fundamentals.
It's just I value my instinct, which is part of why I don't take ideas from other people.
I have to be super, super convinced to buy a stock that someone tells me to buy.
And the two or three that I have bought this year that I listen to other people on were like all losers. So I just know to stick to my guns and like, you know, stick to my process, stick to my
instincts and treat things very basically.
And I don't just mean this from a chart standpoint.
I spent a lot of time talking about the chart perspective today.
But I also mean this from a fundamental standpoint.
Some people put too much emphasis on the balance sheet too,
or too much emphasis on one portion of the balance sheet
and can't see the bigger picture in front of them
because they get caught up on one portion of the balance sheet and don't can't see the bigger picture in front of them because they get caught up on like one financial metric or like they
get caught up on the net operating margins or on the debt serviceability or on, you know,
I don't know, any number of things.
And that they don't see that like the other 12 fundamental factors and the thematic factor
and the technical factor are all in favor of the stock like one line on the balance sheet in those case
shouldn't dissuade you but it does because there's people again they're
taking too nuanced of an approach so nuance is good and then there's a
tipping point where it becomes bad and that's really the headline message of
that entire rant.
I'd love to hear M's thoughts on the market today in general.
And then just, you know, good stock talk around there.
But M or Sam?
Yeah, ENS is a cheat code.
ENS is a cheat code.
Like, that stock does not... Yeah, it's an insane stock.
It's a prime stock talk theme.
It's a prime stock talk theme.
It's the ultimate winner agnostic play.
I do like it.
I think it's the ultimate theme there.
I mean, like, when I was thinking Amcor and stuff,
like, kind of is that,
but I feel like the power grid's even a layer behind it.
Yeah, Amcor's my second largest,
so I still love me with some Amcor, but
tomorrow ENS
will leapfrog because...
Are you looking more... I don't want to give
too much into it. Are you looking more
in that grid theme in that other area?
I mean, I'm sure there's plenty of different...
Yeah, there's like four other names I want to own.
Probably by end of Q1 next
year, I'll own like six names in the grid theme.
Have you looked at Skywater?
Yeah, I have.
I'm not interested in that one.
Mystic has some great DD on it, though,
about how they'll be the quantum chip foundry and all that good stuff.
I have liked their recent growth, though.
I think they posted a nice quarter last quarter, good comments from the CEO.
I know the company well, but no, not really particularly interested in that one.
There's one semi-name, three power grid names, and one other data center name on my list,
but I feel like I have enough data center exposure.
My favorite data center name for next year is actually my small cap name, OSS.
I just, I think it's such a misunderstood company I think it'll have
a theme type move next year but yeah that's one of my favorites I don't know
if I need more data center exposure so I'm kind of reconsidering that one but
there is another semi mid cap to follow up my amcor and p lab calls which I
think people probably excited about but I'm wrapping up research on it right now
so we'll see
if that one ends up coming up before the end of the year
or not. There's a couple of
things I need to talk to some experts about that I don't
understand so
we'll see. I might drop research
on that in the Discord next week
maybe depending on how the markets go
yeah we'll see.
I'm excited I'm excited excited we get some good deep dives on here at some point that means and then you got your whole omit show as well we got a lot of uh good content coming up did
you use those for your uh your ces thing i'm hoping we get to see it i got i got that today
by the way you did approved yeah yeahved? Yeah. That's cool. Nice. So are you going?
Yeah.
I'm going to call my host tomorrow
and see what's up.
Let me see about maybe getting
you into the one event.
Yeah. Get me into as many events
as possible. Or not that many.
We'll see. I're not that many if anyone
knows knows anyone doing some cool stuff at CES let us know you can DM this
account other stuff like that but we'll be around maybe we'll do a stocks and
spaces from CES that'll be dope That would be cool.
We'll do it from Stock Talk's Compt Penthouse apartment
Unnamed Hotel.
The grid theme, though,
I find to be a...
Unnamed Hotel?
I always stay at one place in Vegas,
and that's the Venetian.
For some reason, that was the name that came to my mind as well.
I was going to say, but I was just like, you know,
whatever. But the Grit theme, I feel like
there's a lot of, you know, ENS, battery,
storage. I feel like there's a lot of different ways to play
that area in it. So I'm intrigued
to see where you kind of
end up.
Because that is specific, but I know
you've talked about all like the transistors
and all. I'm going to end up all over that theme, dude.
I'm going to end up in hardware and services.
Everywhere, yeah.
I'm going to get a services name.
I'm going to get a hardware name.
I'm going to get an energy storage name, which I already have, E&S.
You know, people really love the water theme.
There's one or two guys you meet every once in a while who just loves that water theme. Those water stocks.
You one of them?
Water?
Yeah.
Dude, I don't know.
Like water?
Yeah, water.
Like W-A-T-E-R?
I'm sorry.
That is my accent.
Oh, you mean like hydropower?
Not really.
No, I mean just like people to drink.
Like, what is this?
Like American Water Works or something?
Who likes water?
I mean, I don't even know about water stocks.
Wasn't Buffett, didn't he like you or something? Who likes water? I mean, I don't even know about water. I'm telling you.
That's more like pools.
But I'm telling you, there's at least 710 people in here.
There's at least 10 people who have thought, you know,
water wars are going to be a thing in the future,
and I'm going to buy some stocks around that.
I'm telling you, it's come up.
That's wild.
I don't know about that.
Let's see.
We'll let the comments start.
If you think I'm crazy and you've never heard anyone talk about that.
Someone in the audience asked if you're going to go back to GXL.
I like that stock still.
I might.
I like the chart still too.
Look, I like all the stocks I sell. Like if I could buy them all back
and own them forever, I would like, you know, I didn't want to sell P lab. I was just up so much
on it. And I didn't want to give back profits. I ended up selling at the right time. It was on 6%
the next day. So, you know, sometimes you just got to make profit keeping decisions, you know,
and me selling a lot of stocks recently was just a profit retention
decision. That's it. I just didn't want to give back huge profits. I mean, I like the P lab trade
went from 0.8% to 4% of my portfolio overnight. Contracts were up like 600%. Like, I mean,
I can watch those, that those profits disappear, or I could just be like, let's lock this and we'll
revisit it if we need to. Um, and so that's what i did with that one same thing with path like you know those contracts were
up like three four hundred percent like i just locked it and i was like all right i still like
the stock get back into later sometimes you just do that you know and that's more portfolio
management decision than it is like a um statement about the stock or me saying me saying oh i think
it's going to go lower no just got to sell something doesn oh, I think it's going to go lower. No. Just got to
sell something doesn't mean I think it's going to go lower. In fact, most of the stuff I've sold
this year went a lot higher. In fact, one of the names that I regret selling with all my fucking
heart is Talent Energy, which I sold in the middle of the year at like 200 something. And it went to
like 500 bucks. I sold it. What did I sell at? Let me see. I sold like close to 300, but it went to like 450,
you know, and I would have loved to still own that name. I love that stock, you know, but
that was just a decision that was made because of the portfolio overall. Like at the end of the day,
I care more about the portfolio than any individual stock. And sometimes things are done for buying power management so i'm like oh i want
some more cash here to get more flexibility and to do that i have to sell things right so that's
sometimes a decision buying power flexibility sometimes the decision is just hey i'm up a
shit ton i want to lock some profits like you, you, you, you, which was what I rare earth names like we I got it in in like six, seven, eight bucks that area and got out in the 20s.
You know, I do. I was just like, hey, man, I like the stock. I think it's a very important
rare stock. You know, I like the white miss outlet, but I was like, hey, it's also very
overvalued on a fundamental basis. And it's gone up lot so I got out maybe one day I'll revisit that you know but
the high conviction stuff tends to stay like Amcor hasn't been sold ENS hasn't
been sold VIAB hasn't been sold LEU hasn't been sold OSS my small cap has not
been sold Nebius bought a 23 hasn't been sold Kratos hasn't been sold Huntington Ingalls the
shipbuilding name hasn't been sold so the stuff that I really like that you
know I have the right amount of waiting in that it's not gonna be too dangerous
for me to continue to hold I just stay in those names and let them work you
know in the very long run good stocks and the right themes do continue to
trend up.
And so, yeah, I mean, if next year is a bear market, a lot of those stocks that I just mentioned might be sold.
If they break down, I will sell them.
But they haven't broken down, so I haven't sold.
And in the cases where the daily and weeklies look ugly, like on Nebius and Kratos, I'm expecting more downside.
But I'm OK with it because my cost basis can endure that, right? And the cost basis in the 20s on both of those names, I can endure a further drawdown and perhaps even upsize the position if it does come all the way back down
to the 50s or the 60s for either of those names. So that's my thinking here is just like, you know,
stay nimble, prioritize the portfolio over any individual stock, be conscious of your buying power, be conscious of your leverage,
be conscious of your overall beta to the market and manage those things
actively so that you stay in a comfortable position and you're not getting
killed when the markets go down and that you can still benefit when the markets go up.
So, Ellie, you, for example, because you just mentioned that one,
it's like 50% haircut from its highs.
I don't know if you trimmed it or anything near the top or not.
No, all shares.
Okay, so a position like this for someone who hypothetically is not in it,
where would be a good buying level on something like this?
Not to buy LEU specifically, but like for a stock that someone's-
You want me to just use leu as an example
yeah okay so leu daily busted weekly busted okay monthly though looks good and in the monthly you
see this price here this 200 month moving average and the nine month ema nine month em-month EMA curling up, 200-month moving average coming down.
They're about to hit a collision.
Price is sitting right on this collision point between the nine-month EMA and the 200-month SMA.
Okay?
On the weekly, you see prices pinned.
So if you wanted to get an ideal entry on this, this is what I would do personally.
I'm not buying it here.
This is just an example.
I would wait for a recapture of the 9 and 21 EMAs on the daily.
You're sitting pretty close to the 200 day, right?
Which is at 196.
Okay.
Prices now put three candles in around this 220 to 230 range, three candles in a row.
Okay.
This may break further, may come all the way down into 196.
If you wanted to be a hero, you would take an initial entry at 196 with a 200 day as your stop.
However, if you wanted to be more constructive, what you would do is wait for a nine and 21 EMA recapture and wait for price to be pushing back up into the hundred day, which is up at 272.
So that would be, I I mean these EMAs are
gonna change as price changes but currently the 21 EMA is at 256 65 so a
recapture of the 256 65 area recapture the 21 EMA on the daily would also
constitute a recapture of the 9 and 21 EMAs on the weekly. That's why it's a nice spot. So above 266, you get
the 9 and 21 week back and you also get the 9 and 21 day back. Simultaneously, it would also
constitute a defense of the 200 month. So a recapture of the 9 and 21 daily, a recapture
21 daily, a recapture of the nine and 21 weekly combined with a defense of the 200 month. That's
of the 9 and 21 weekly combined with a defense of the 200 month, that's a good entry.
a good entry. So that's an example. Now, a more ballsy buyer who really likes the stock would say,
I'm either going to buy at a test of the 200 at 196, or I'm going to buy now because the monthly
chart is attempting to bottom here on the monthly. But if you were to make that decision, like if you
ever make an entry point decision based off the monthly chart But if you were to make that decision, like if you ever make an entry point
decision based off the monthly chart, be cautious that you're only relying on the monthly close.
So you may have additional intra-month volatility that shakes you below or above your price basis.
And so if you're ever going to make a purchase decision on the monthly, like if you were to
look at the monthly now and LU and say, this is good buy point be conscious hey you could see price float back in to that 220 range or even lower into that
196 range so if you want to technically support entry wait for the 9 and 21 daily recapture if you
want to be a risky boy you hope the stock knifes into 196 and you buy it there at the 200 day
that would be my simple way to approach
that would be my simple way to approach that if i did not own it but i do own it at 96.
that if I did not own it but I do own it
at 96
right on time
good one
yeah I can see
Gov doing this up here
took Gov
I have an appointment in like
25 minutes I'm going to take a shower
right now but I'll be here for the next 30-ish or so after I take a shower.
Boom.
Boom.
Well, no.
I said Gov, the coach, and it did the classic kick him once he wanted to take it.
Oh, classic.
Good.
I love that.
Well, Evan, you mentioned – I know we're trying to get Gab up here.
I think Adam's going to come join us.
I do not see Adam.
I don't know.
I don't know what it is.
It's when you try to send coasts, and the second I come on the space, it kicks me off
the space.
So don't send it.
Take it back and send it in five minutes.
All right.
What's going on?
How about them Teslas?
Just kidding. I thought it was going to be the gonna be all time i'd say i did not i know i know but it is exciting seeing it where it is
excited for this combo with adam um i feel like people are really jumping onto some of these uh
thematics that he talked about with power and a couple of others. Sam, it was good having you on that stream with me yesterday. That was fun. Well, yesterday was before Micron reported the most ridiculous
earnings ever. So he must be very happy right now because AIS, I didn't even see how that's
doing today. AIS is there. AIS is up two and a half percent today. Oh, wow. That's insane.
This is up 2.5% today.
Wow, that's insane.
That's crazy for an ETF.
Oh yeah, for sure.
Continuing to look pretty good.
I know that was one that Stock Talk really liked for a long time.
And to just continue to outperform.
We spent a lot of time on this one talking about the grid theme though.
Did you guys already talk FJET at all?
We did talk a little FJET at some point before.
Not too deep into it.
I didn't get to.
I was going to ask you guys about us all that went public today.
Oh, you guys didn't talk about it?
Whoa, what a candle.
I came in late.
I know.
I know.
They came out.
Holy cow.
They were up 400%.
And it is not anymore.
I do see Adam requesting now.
Perfect. Perfect.
Nice.
What is up, Mr. Adam?
Having technical difficulties trying to get on the space.
So here I am.
So I hope you guys are doing great.
Doing good.
Doing good.
Excited to be back home with you.
We were talking about how,
you know, me and Sam had that live stream with you yesterday prior to MU earnings,
and we were kind of wondering how that would go and then just insane, insane earnings and
really seeing that reflected in AIS today. Yeah, I mean, that was blockbuster, right? I mean,
they killed it and their guidance. I mean they're looking good i mean they're a
powerhouse for sure they're in a you know a crucial piece without them you know there's no ai
yeah 100 um hey adam just when i'm talking it's reverberating a little bit through your mic so if
you just mute in between it'd be perfect oh sure no sorry it's something another thing that space is just likes to do with a lot of these but
yeah I'm excited to dive into it Evan do you want to run through some quick
disclosures you want me to yes sir I got it I am looking forward to this
conversation we have coming up here I did just want to read some stuff out here.
Obviously, we are working with VistaShares and Adam.
But quickly, an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objectives,
risk, charges, and expenses before investing.
A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the VistaShares ETFs.
To obtain a fund's prospectus
and key information documents,
visit their website,
which we have,
which will get pinned up in the list above,
but it is quickly.
VistaShares.com.
Just VistaShares.com.
Yeah, shout out to VistaShares.com.
A fund's prospectus and key information documents
should be read carefully before investing.
We are excited to be working
with the Vista Shares team.
Yeah, our goal is to make as much great content as possible, and we are going to be doing that
for free. And we appreciate amazing people creating great products like the Vista Shares team.
They got some really popular ETFs just based on the AOM. We got AIS breaking over 100 million, OMAH, Omaha doing their thing.
And we got a new ETF, which just came out and launched this week, or recently SIOO, which I'm excited to talk about today.
But yeah, Gov, I could throw it back over to you, and then we can get us started in here.
But yeah.
Yeah, let me kick into things.
So we did a live stream yesterday
and we talked about a couple of pieces right here.
So SIOO is the newest ETF that they put out
and it's intriguing,
especially in a market condition like this.
They basically take the top 100 names inside the SP500.
So you're looking at basically, you know,
a lot of tech pieces in there,
some financials, a couple other items,
but really weighted towards blue chip stocks, right?
And so wanting to invest in blue chip stocks, and they do an option overlay on top of it
that targets an extra 15%, so 1.25% payout per month.
And so the concept, basically what I've garnered from my research with Adam is that you're
essentially going to get about 85%, 80-85% of the upside, but you have a buffer to the
downside there as well. So if the stock
market was to suddenly go and just go nuclear and pop up another 20, 30%, you wouldn't capture the
upside, but there is a lot of worth here too, if it doesn't do that. Now, one of the things that
leads me to think that it might not do that is one of my favorite investors that I know is Hamid,
who's been on a lot of space with us. And I did a show earlier today with Hamid. And to me,
we talked about like 10x investing, because he's literally invested a bunch of 10xs. And
he basically said that earlier this year, you go back to April, and he was just heavily buying the
market, you know, in that dip, and it reflects, I mean, he shows his stuff publicly tracked,
he's up 500% over the last few years,
you know, made a lot of money there. Right now, his portfolio, he's moved to about 30% cash.
So large cash position, and he feels like some of the market's overheated. Now, you still want to
be in the market. You want to be able to get long-term capital appreciation, but perhaps you
start looking for some things that if SPY was to go a little bit more sideways, would provide a
little bit more stability. So obviously being in blue chip names is going to provide probably more stability in the terms of areas
like that, and then also having some of the target income. So that's why I thought SAO was kind of
interesting. And then the two other names that we discussed on our stream were AIS and POW,
which focus on the AI thematic. So as AI is ramping up, everybody in here has probably heard
Stock Talk talk about it a ton, a lot, a lot, a lot of CapEx. So the
money's just already been committed, right? Hundreds of billions of dollars, probably more
than that, that's going to get spent. And the cool thing is we can really see where it's been
committed to. As money comes out from these companies, you know that X company is going to
get X amount, right? Whether it's for cooling systems, for wiring, whatever it is, materials,
the money's already been committed and it has to be spent.
And so now you can go in, you can find the names it's going to be spent on, and you can
invest in those names.
And that's exactly what they did in those two ETFs.
So to me, it's just a very interesting approach.
But Adam, I'd like to hear kind of your thoughts on a little bit of everything I just covered
there, just kind of recapping my general thoughts.
I mean, it's hard to follow you, man.
I mean, I think you nailed it down.
So is my audio okay?
Yeah, you sound good.
It's all good?
Yeah, you sound good.
All right, perfect.
So, yeah, look, I mean, we wanted to come up with something unique.
We're not trying to come up with Me Too products.
So, yeah, I mean, the S&P 500 is a core for, you know, every investor in,
you know, certainly in the United States, if not the world. And, you know, the S&P 100 is,
you know, it's the blue chip segment of it. It's the top 100 companies. And what's interesting is
that when you, you know, the S&P 100 is around 70, 75% of the total market capitalization of the
500. So when you're buying the 500, you're basically
getting the 100 and a lot of other stuff for another 25% exposure. So most of the returns
that have been driven over the last years have been driven, if not by the top 100, certainly
even by the top 10 in the S&P. If you look at the attribution and see where the returns have been. So your returns are coming from that top 100 anyway, which is important to
note. And what we try to do is create something that's differentiated. So you got a differentiated
exposure, you got just the blue chips. Then we did, you know, we looked at the market, most of
the S&P 500 income funds are kind of in the eight to 12 12% income range. So ours is following our target
15 approach. So you're getting more yield there as well. And then what we did is we underpriced
the market. So if you look at the top S&P 500 funds, they're generally in the 60 to 70 range,
65, 68, somewhere around there. So we priced this at 59 basis points. So just try to give a little bit back
to the investor, come in a little tighter for ourselves on our own operating margins.
And so we're really excited about this one. I think this is going to be a beast of a product.
I mean, it's just, we're getting amazing response from investors and I'm really excited.
I do want to note one thing though,, and this is more kind of a tangent, just more of an ETF lesson.
You know, whenever you trade an ETF, please use limit orders.
No matter what ETF you're trading, just use the limit order.
Don't use market orders.
Yesterday, somebody came in and bought SIO with a market order right at the close.
And, you know, it was a small order, it was like 10 shares, but skewed the price.
They got their face ripped off. So skewed the price of SIO by 1%. So, you know, basically paid 1% more than they should back into line with the market price. So just a little less than
a little bit of a tangent, always use a limit order when buying ETFs. But back to SIO, very
excited about it. We just think it's going to be a great product and it's a great core position for
anyone who's interested in the US equity markets. Yeah, I think it is really interesting. And I mean, in that same
vein, do you think that if somebody like, say, has a large position in, you know, like an SPY
or something like that right now, this is where you'd substitute that in or kind of something
else and not financial advice ever. We don't make a door to recommendations. I'm literally just
picking your brain as someone who manages $850 million. Yeah, I mean, look, it's definitely a core position. So I would carve
away from your S&P 500 exposure for sure. And then you substitute some SIO in there to get
pretty much the same exact exposure, the 100 again, 75% of the 500, but get that income overlay.
overlay. So, you know, you're generating some income from your core equity exposure, which is
So you're generating some income from your core equity exposure, which is important.
important. And, you know, particularly in volatile markets, the income is even more important,
right? I mean, you see what's going on, right? Up 1%, down 1%. We got a lot of volatility. You
mentioned your friend with 30% in cash. I mean, who knows, right? I mean, you know, I can't tell
you where the market's going. And if I did it, I'd probably be wrong. So, but, you know, why not
get into something that's giving you the, you know, the capital appreciation opportunity,
but, you know, clipping off that 1.25% per month along the way while you wait.
Yeah, I think those are great points. Sam, you want to jump in? You have some thoughts coming off of the MU earnings yesterday? Yeah, so earnings,
I was very surprised with earnings. They came in actually with expanded margins. This is Micron
specifically, so the high bandwidth memory. As you were saying, Adam, we've talked more than a
few times. I mean, your AIS ETF has really circles around the bill of materials and high bandwidth memories 30% to 40%.
And you guys have been positioning this for quite some time before last August.
The stock has basically doubled since last August.
And we had that conversation before the stock doubled, which is actually really lands you guys at a really good point.
I mean, not only do you have holdings in Micron, but also SK Hynix, which is one of the three largest producers of a high
bandwidth memory. And those earnings were just wild. I mean, you saw basically a 6% hike or
expansion in estimated margins on operating income basis, which basically meant that for every dollar
of revenue that they print, they're getting 47 cents in revenue. I calculated
this actually on the stream that I had earlier. It basically had about $6.5 billion in operating
income last quarter. This is coming from a company whose operating margins were not that great
before AI. And you saw the ramp up with Blackwell and everything, but Blackwell actually uses a lot
of Micron's HBM. And Micron has clearly said,
on their own as well,
they are completely sold out for 2026
and that they're looking to build
the bandwidth over 2027.
Like that is, I guess,
the expectation that the market had
was pretty high for Micron for the earnings.
And they literally came in
and just blew those estimates out of the water.
And that's why you saw the stock up by 11% today.
Yeah, it was up about like 18% pre-market
because it was in like a 268s.
But a lot of that was really attributed to the macro
because if you look at the indices level,
they faded pretty considerably from their highs in the day.
But arguably, it's just, I don't know.
I think Micron pretty much saved the whole semiconductor sector
from a central perspective. semiconductor sector from a center
perspective obviously from a fundamental perspective like this is not even close to
being done but the market can do whatever it does in the short term and then long term i mean like
there was there was a point where this was trading in single digits price to earnings
on a forward basis and i think it's like somewhere around there right now like it's not egregiously
expensive handed high bandwidth memory is a much more sick of the cyclative sector in the semiconductor
industry, but it does not look like a slogan anytime soon.
But as far as any inflows you saw in today and block orders and everything, do you guys
see additional shares being issued out from the ETF?
Like a lot more demand than usual?
Yeah. shares being issued out from the ETF, like a lot more demand than usual?
Adam, you're muted, by the way. Sorry, we had to mute in between for the sound.
Oh, thank you. Sorry about that. Yeah, I mean, usually we had great volume today. We've had great volume over the last week or so. So, you know, we'll see.
Usually the creation units come in a day after the volume.
So we'll see what happens tomorrow on new creation units coming into the ETF.
But look, I'm just happy to see, you know, the street get a little more confidence in
the AI infrastructure trade, if you want to call it that.
You know, look, it's no surprise to us.
We're seeing it, you know,
on the ground every day. The demand is there. The purchase orders are there, as God was talking
about earlier. It's happening. It's real. The fundamentals have not changed. And, you know,
it's just, you know, the market, you know, sentiment changes. So, you know, it's always
good to buy low. So, you know, we were up 2.75% today. We were the best
performing ETF in the AI sector today. We've been the best performing AI ETF, you know, year to date.
But again, it's no surprise because we're not chasing the fancy names, right? We're not, you
know, the newest name on the street, whoever's, you know, talking, whoever's the hottest stock,
we're buying the
infrastructure companies, the companies that are collecting the CapEx. So as Gav was saying earlier,
if you look at the supply chain, every time a meta says they're going to invest in $100 billion
in AI, what that means is that they're building data centers and semiconductors. And that's where
the money's going. So then if you dig in deeper and say, okay, well, what does that mean to build a data center?
All right, well, you got to look at the supply chain.
So 30% of every dollar that goes into building an AI data center goes into cooling systems.
You know, most people don't know that.
So a company like Vertiv, which is the leader in cooling systems in the AI business, the AI industry is, you know, an important company.
So, you know, you really got to dig in and see what companies are collecting or kind of capturing the investment.
And that's what we do. And that's really what differentiates us.
The other thing that differentiates us as well with AIS and POW is, you know, the people that are involved, right?
Our investment committee are made up of experts in the field that, you know, we're not Wall Street
analysts looking at financials saying, ah, this looks good, you know, let's buy this stock. You
know, these are people like Sonny Madra, who's building data centers all over the world, or
Justin Lopas, who is one of the world leaders in energy technology and, you know, chief operating officer
of Base Power. You know, these are the people that are guiding us on our portfolio construction.
You know, my job in the investment committee is really just to, you know, express their views
that if Sonny, John, and Justin say, you know, XYZ company is important, we need to get that in the
portfolio, then myself and Professor Whitelaw, who is the former dean of NYU Stern School of Business,
our job is to then get that into the portfolio and look at all the different metrics, the
risk metrics, to make sure the portfolio construction is sound.
But the stock ideas, the overall construction are coming from some of the top experts in
coming from some of the top experts in the world.
the world.
Do you think you guys have inspired people doing similar stuff like you guys from this?
I've always enjoyed and talked, like, even with Omaha and Aki and all those ones coming from it,
that you guys are doing new and unique stuff, and I love it.
Do you think you guys have inspired a lot of people to think in different ways?
I don't know.
I mean, you know, a lot of these companies
in the investment management industry
have a certain way of doing business.
You know, they've been doing business this way
for, you know, decades.
And, you know, it's hard to replicate what we did.
And that's why I was so excited to, you know,
start VistaShares with John McNeil
because we were just, you know,
we started with a clean sheet of paper, said, all right, if we're building a modern investment management business, you know,
what are, what's important? And it starts with domain expertise, you know, actual domain expertise,
not, you know, Wall Street analytical domain expertise. Now, I don't want to, you know,
I'm not belittling that Wall Street analytical expertise, that's important, but it's not the,
it's not where it all starts. It starts from people on the ground
who really understand the businesses or the industries in which we're creating portfolios
around. So yeah, I mean, I hope it inspires people to do what we're doing because I think it's a
better outcome for investors, frankly. But for now, it's us. And we're just going to try to create important products that
hopefully we don't over-promise and under-deliver and just do what we say we're going to do. And
hopefully, they add some value for investors' portfolios.
Was there anything specific you guys saw? The SIOO is the S&p 100 uh i'm curious and like why that specific number uh you know
we kind of brought up the number that that represents about like what 77 percent of the
index or something like that i'd be curious what's the s&p uh 25 or or whatever it is or
maybe even like just the nasdaq 100 which kind of goes in and does that is there what what did you
see on this one?
Or was it kind of just the litmus test and S&P 100 is a very popular one.
I'm curious if there's anything you saw on the back test or all that stuff that kind of drove you this direction.
Yeah, I mean, yes.
Yeah, the S&P 100 has been around for a long, long time, right?
It's known as the blue chip index.
So, you know, that's, you know, that's not my brainchild, obviously that's standard and poor's, but you know, what got us
thinking about it is looking at, you know, how concentrated the S&P 500 actually is. So the,
the top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 comprise around, let's call it 40% of overall exposure
of the 500. So when you're buying the 500, you're really getting 40% of
your exposure in the top 10, which is crazy. Then if you look at the NASDAQ or you look at the Qs,
you know, around, I think it's over 50% now of the exposure in the Qs is in the top 10 holdings.
And guess what? The top 10 holdings are nearly identical between the Qs and the S&P 500.
what, the top 10 holdings are nearly identical between the Qs and the S&P 500. So when people
are buying the Qs and the SPY or the VU, whatever it is, they're buying both because they think
they're diversifying their exposure. They're actually not getting diversified at all,
which is a little alarming. So that just got us thinking, is there a better way to provide the
exposure and be more transparent into what we're actually providing?
So, you know, I don't know the number of what the 25 is or the 50, but the 100 is around 70 to 75 percent of overall market capitalization of the 500.
So when you're buying the 500, the bottom 400 companies make up, you know, 25% of your exposure. And if you look at the return profile of the different segments, not only does the S&P 100 outperform the 500 over most timeframes, but frankly, over the last three or four years or even five years, the top 10 holdings have driven, oh God, I'm going to mangle this a little bit.
I think it was 65% of the returns.
So your returns are coming from the top of the index. So that's where we started. We said,
let's give something unique. Let's be very blue chip focused. We don't need the bottom 400.
You know, does anyone need the bottom 400? I don't know. I mean, look, I can go on a rant
about the 500 all day long. I mean, that was created by Standard & Poor's
in the 1920s, 1930s as a market indicator. It was never designed as an investment vehicle,
though of course now it's the biggest investment vehicle in the world. But
we tried to do it better on the exposure. And then of course, by adding in the 15% income paid
monthly, we're offering more yield than most of the competitive
products out there. And then by having our lower fee, we're giving a better deal, at least on the
management fee as well. So we're trying to cover our bases to compete in a, it's a competitive
space. The core equity space are the highest flows, but of course it's the most competitive
because it's the most products in there. So you really need to differentiate and hopefully have something special,
and we do think we have something special here.
Ryan, do you want to jump in? You got any thoughts or questions here?
I was actually, I was really interested in asking a little bit more on that SIOO.
Adam, just on the simplistic side of things, who would you say is maybe the best candidate to dive into that a little bit deeper?
So, you know, I was thinking for myself a little bit here, just trying to maybe diversify, you know, looking at kind of what the, you know, I've been raising some cash up a little bit as the market's been up here, kind of just chopping.
And, you know, I was looking, I was like, okay, maybe some income options and stuff like this.
Just who is maybe the target person or the target portion of a portfolio that you guys are kind of looking to create this product for?
Sorry, Adam, I had to meet you.
Yeah. It's a core equity holding. So I always talk about, I'm not a trader, I'm a terrible trader, but I'm really good at portfolio construction. So, you know, I always tell
people, any investor, big or small, that, you know, you want to create a well-diversified portfolio as your core.
And then, of course, if you want to trade individual names or themes, you know, there's lots of ways to express your view by using ETFs or individual stocks as a smaller piece of your overall portfolio, because, you know, you want to have exposure to all the major asset classes, you know, just so you can have that kind of consistent growth over time. So when you're,
you know, 20 years from now, you have a nice robust portfolio. So, you know, the S&P 500,
or U.S. equities, I should say, is always, you know, the core of all of that, right? As a, you
know, really as any investor, but when you're a US-centric investor, of course, the US equity
markets are the core. So this SIO product, it's a core product. I would not say, do not sell all
your S&P 500 or NASDAQ, your Q's exposure and buy all of this. You don't want to do that.
But what I would say is that if you own, let's say 30% of your total portfolio is in the S&P 500, how important is income to you? If it's important,
then you can ramp it up or ramp it down in that 30%. So let's say income is extremely important
to you. So carve off half of that 30% and you put it into something like this.
So you're getting the same equity exposure, but you're getting that income on a monthly basis.
If income isn't as important to you, but still a little bit important,
5%, 10% of your core equity, U.S. equity exposure, you can use this for.
So it's definitely a core holding.
So it's definitely a core holding.
And you should be using it in lieu of other core equity, like the SPY or the Qs.
Yeah, I love that.
A quick follow-up on that.
For my investing strategy, this caught my attention because I like best in breed.
I like large caps and mega caps just in general. It's like StockTalk has his niche and he really finds winners and deep value and plays like that.
And I'm more of simplistic on the investing side.
I am more of a trader.
And so when I invest, I'm more of like, oh, let me give you the large cap, the mega caps and those types of names.
But the income portion seems really interesting to me.
What's the best way for somebody to calculate this?
Do you guys have a calculator or some way to think about like, okay, instead of just buying at X price and if it goes up, it goes up.
If it goes down, it goes down.
The income, what's the best way to track that and say, okay, I'm getting these dividends as well into my position here based on the underlying.
How do I kind of track that? Well, it's all transparent. It's all on our website. So every
month and the next declaration date, I believe is next Friday. You know, we seek to pay out 1.25% per month. So our target 15 is 15% annual yield paid monthly. So 1.25.
And what's important is that we're not trying to maximize income. We're trying to hit 125.
And look, we won't always hit 125. Sometimes we'll, you know, we haven't missed it yet,
but we will miss it in the future. I'm sure it just happens. But, you know, hopefully we still
hit our 15% on the annual basis. So, you know, what we're trying to do is provide steady, consistent,
transparent income every month that everyone knows what they're getting. And there's no surprises.
So you're not going to get, you know, 3% one month and zero the next or anything like that.
We're going for one to five a month. And we use, you know,
a very data-driven option strategy to do that. You know, we're not waking up in the morning and
saying, oh, let's hold these positions. Let's hold these, you know, these call positions,
you know, for a little bit longer and try to squeeze more out. No, I mean, once we hit that
125, we roll out of the position. So, you know, we're not looking again to, you know, maximize it.
And we're not looking, certainly we don't want any nav erosion.
So, you know, we believe that 15% is the optimal number to give a robust yield without the nav erosion.
That's perfect.
My last question around it is, does it have upside and downside?
Is it kind of colors?
Are there spreads around this thing?
And what does it look like in a market downturn as far as just the projection-wise?
At some point, hopefully it doesn't happen, obviously.
Hopefully we just keep going up and up and up.
But at some point, we should get a downturn, right?
And I'm just curious, what does that look like with the options strategy and the income side of things?
Yes, so we use OEX options, so S&P 100 options, and we're selling out of the money calls. That is the core of the strategy. However, we do use call spreads as well, which are important when the market snaps back. I tell everyone the same
thing. With any type of options strategy, there's no free lunch, right? So if we're in a raging bull
market, we will never keep up. It's just impossible. We do best in markets that are
kind of going sideways or just appreciating slightly. And of course, on the downside. So I always tell everyone it's, you know, you can expect over your holding period, you know, approximately 75% of the upside and 85% of the downside. And, you know, hopefully we do better than that because capital appreciation is important to us. But, you know, we want to, we prefer to under promise and, you know, hopefully over deliver.
Okay. That makes perfect sense when I think about it as well. You're selling calls above. So
either way you're collecting that premium, even if the market is coming in a little bit. I love
that. And I love the fact that you and a team of professionals are over there doing it. I don't have to think about complex options strategies either. So super interested in that SIO product.
I'll pass the mic back. It looks like gave me a drop. So I'll pass it over to Evan.
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. I still got one or two more questions. I know we're a little over the time,
but Adam, I feel like it's been a little since I've gotten to ask you some questions. I know
travel and stuff. So I did have one or two more.
In general, in the past, what are your thoughts on this?
Will the largest companies in the world continue to keep winning?
My portfolio is priced for that to keep happening.
I am indexed towards these mega cap names, these large cap names.
And this ETF seems to kind of play on that theme a little bit and would be interesting for someone with that type of belief so i'm curious your thoughts on that and when you
look forward on like the the reasons why the the large cat the largest names in the world may be
the ones that continue to lead yeah i mean look you know i mean the market is cyclical right you
know so there are times when small caps lead or mid caps i mean you know it I mean, the market is cyclical, right? You know, so there are times when small caps lead
or mid caps. I mean, you know, it changes, right? But our belief, at least, where it comes to U.S.
equities is that as a core of your portfolio, you want to be exposed to the mega caps, the large
caps, the blue chips, because particularly in today's market, I mean, you see what's going on
with all the capex spending, right? I mean, if you look at our top 10 holdings, I mean, you see what's going on with all the capex spending, right?
I mean, if you look at our top 10 holdings, it's, you know, it's MAG7, right?
Basically plus.
Our belief is that, you know, over time, these companies are just becoming absolutely dominant,
right?
I mean, they already are, and they're going to continue to be.
So, you know, we've got, you know, the blue chips are, you know, they're called blue
chips for a reason, right?
They perform typically better over time than, you know, we've got, you know, the blue chips are, you know, they're called blue chips for a reason, right? They perform typically better over time than, you know, other cap ranges.
And I don't see any reason why that's changing, particularly given what's going on in the markets,
just with all the spending that's going on. You know, it goes back to the super cycles,
right? We're living through a time where there are many different dynamics occurring that are
really changing the way people live and work.
You know, AI, it's electrification, it's robotics, it's, you know, it's space, it's biotech.
All of these things are converging to really change the economy. And these largest, the largest
players in the market, we believe, are the ones that are best positioned to capitalize on that
over time.
Yeah, I think that's a fair point.
Adam, was there anything that we didn't ask you on the spaces that you think we should have,
that you were excited to talk about?
No, I think as usually you guys are great
and comprehensive.
I just appreciate you taking the time to listen to me.
And certainly to all your listeners,
thank you very much for your time as well. And, you know, give me a follow on X and we try to
educate, we try to provide information. There's white papers and investment cases on our website
at VistaShares.com. So, you know, please take a look at that. And, you know, if you have any
questions, you know, hit me up. Shout out to Adam. We appreciate you for joining. And if you are not
following these counties, posting a lot of really great stuff from there, a lot of really great
stuff. So make sure you're following him, the other speakers. We, uh, we try to work with some
people who are doing just really, really smart stuff in the space, different things and, uh,
not me too products as Adam has been talking about. And as they consistently, consistently
shown. So, uh, we appreciate them for,
for joining in on the spaces,
being regulars.
happy holidays as we go into this in the area to you and to everyone,
in the crowd,
but yeah,
I appreciate you,
sir.
Appreciate everyone.
Happy holidays to everyone.
We will catch you all since Thursday.
So we'll catch you all on Monday.
And next week is obviously a little bit of a shortened week.
The market will be closed on Thursday.
And I think it will be half day on Wednesday.
So keep that in mind.
We appreciate you all.
Have a great one, team. Thank you.
Insights
Project L
Token L
P
