good morning everybody welcome on in good morning leah how's it going
hi good morning wolf how are you i am doing well doing well i haven't really
looked too much at the market just yet just been getting some stuff ready
what are you watching this morning uh i mean i was just looking the semiconductors
keep going crazy SMC i had great earnings yesterday
beat the expectations got upgraded this morning so that one
is going nuts um we'll see how much more juice they
have uh overall the spine are close to all time high
and especially spy and um i i was just doing a little research and
hello yeah we got you still oh yeah so only only about 30 percent of
stocks in spy are about 20 moving average so
that is interesting all right appreciate it leah
morning isha how's it going what are you watching
hey good morning uh so watching the macro mostly so we got some big news
yesterday that the us government is not shutting down today
they did pass the stopgap funding bill and now everything's moved
to the first week of march so this is kind of important because i think it's
going to weigh on yields a little bit last time
i did speak about the treasury funding right and this was sort of something
that everybody is still watching um but given that now we have we don't
have a budget for the us so we don't know how much the
treasury is going to issue and it'll probably be on the lower side so people
are not getting very excited about yields going up right here
um and then also watching earnings so earnings are showing a year on your
decline thus far only 66 beat earnings of all of
those that have reported so very lackluster earnings we're seeing
mixed stuff in you know when it comes to
the banks the regional banks that i think they're the most watched this time
um but it's just very mixed results from them
and then finally just keeping an eye on gold so if yields do pull back
we're likely to see a bid in gold along with the geopolitical tensions that
are going on here um yeah that's about it for now
sounds good thank you for sharing a yesha we've got two ands on stage so i'm going
to go with annemarie and ann when i call out just a hair warning annemarie
what's going on by you this morning hey there wolf um
going pretty good you know this morning i was watching for what the liquidity
um look like above these highs and by liquidity of course i mean
what the depth of market is showing in terms of whether
people are pricing higher or lower right after that number came out
the dome got very very thin so my thought is that we retrace into
vwap action and then buyers come in uh straight away uh the big thing for
me to look at today is oil um i've been fairly bearish on this
until about the 70 dollar mark and now it's really moving up
over areas it hasn't been seen in a while so i would be looking at things
like the xop to see if it can hold a base um
and then really starting to watch oil try and get
up and over this 75 area where it's had a ton
of problems so my eyes are on oil they're on the dollar
you know if the dollar continues to rise it's going to put
a little bit of heavy action on the market but
dip buyers in full force so that's what i continue to look for my
favorites are always in the buy the dip
formation so looking for a little fade into heavy congestion from yesterday
and then just going with some nice zero dte's and the cues and spy
to see what we can extract intraday
perfect really well put there and marie great to have you on the space with us as
you were talking we went and we hit the open and with
that we are dropping on something here i'm watching
something drop off the open i know that bitcoin just had a little bit
of a slide it is back to right around 41
looks like squared baba wow china's just continuing to get hammered here
right off the open it has not been a good week for them at all if you're
looking at yang yang i put this one on everyone's radar
up 3.6 today this is a triple leveraged chinese
bear etf that i continue to watch a yesha do you have some thoughts on this
yeah so um i i've been averse china for a very long time and i still
am staying away and yes i am in yang as well
um i actually took profits a couple of days ago when the market went down
severely and then i went back in so i'm still in yang
um but i think china is not getting resolved this morning they came out with
some news that they're stopping short selling over there for the retail
investors which is i think a disaster it just goes to show how desperate they
are and how much they want to save the market
but you know they aren't doing any stimulus measures so the macro is
terrible so let's just put it that way there
economic growth came out at 5.2 which is
you know recessionary for china for example you know
compared to their past history so for me i think i just
i want to stay away from china if you are brave enough to short it by all means
go ahead because i'm in the short as well
yeah i i can definitely see that and why you would be there good morning kim
good to have you what's going on good morning well actually i woke up on
time this morning wolf so here i am um well i'm watching small
caps so i've had a small short position on that um i think i talked about
on monday i have not taken it off yet um it's the futures and it's very
interesting because that was what everyone was touting is you know we're
going to rotate into small caps and you know uh the first of the year we're
rotating into small caps and you know this is where the new trade
is and tech's going to underperform and i don't really know how that's going to
go the whole year i just thought when you hear a lot of
people and what i mean by who they are it's like listening to bloomberg or
cmbc that's that's what i'm listening to and when you hear a lot of people get
on one side of the trade i kind of decided to take it short
because it moves so fast so um you know i don't know how
that'll play out it's i'm looking for it to go down below
um at the futures 1900 so and again this is a swing trade not a day trade
um so that's what i'm looking at and especially with interest rates rising
you know the small caps are more vulnerable to that
so i think that's another reason why i'm taking
that short trade and i just went long silver
on the futures um the micros and so went along that as i saw that gold
was moving up and silver was down this morning so
that's up a little bit so far this morning
very nice a couple of good things keep our eyes on by the way quick update here
as we come out of the open we're now four minutes in
we are seeing a little bit more of a drop here on spy i currently have a
bigger signal in place for spy so if anybody's taking anything
feel free to go ahead and call out those trades while you're here with us
if you're looking at tesla though it's headed to the upside tesla
it's it's down a little bit uh on the day but the candle
is just pumping right now and here we go we just went green on tesla
right here keep an eye on amazon meta google
all green today although coinbase having another daily drop
yeah crypto continuing to sell off so if you're in that area
that one's had a pretty rough sell off and looks like it could be continuing
this morning getting ugly here let's bring it over
to ann on stage ann what are you watching today
hi good morning um well i am watching my usual favorite
indicators uh this and also you're you're a little quiet ann i'm not sure
if you can speak a little bit louder into the mic okay can you hear me now
yeah i can hear you so i am watching um my usual favorite indicators volatility
and market breadth i think the last time we chatted
i mentioned which was uh january 5th i mentioned that the indicators at the
time were saying were likely to get a big dip you know go into sell mode
for starting around mid january and go to past FOMC
on january 31st and um so january 11th that's when the
sell off officially picked up according to my indicator
and we saw um small caps actually at drop substantially since then
um actually it dropped since early january
but in any way i've been uh trading um biotech ETF
not because i'm into biotech or against it but because
uh xbi was highly overbought uh short term
and it was vulnerable to uh sharp pullback uh given
the fact that we're in sell mode and so it has gone
uh so i've been trading LABB which is the inverse ETF
and um it's been going up uh quite a bit uh it's going up this morning
so we'll see how far back goes i expected to get up to
you know 12 13 zone it is currently at 10.4
so uh we'll see what happens um but this sell off that we're in right now
um is it going to continue at the indicators are all saying yes
um volatility i expect to get up to about 16 based on the the analysis
and i think uh yesterday i noticed that um
nastak was breaking out but the uh the market breadth for nastak stock
were just sharp stopping sharply still so
there was a headset kind of set up happening there
so we'll see what happens but um my thesis is
still that this download is going to continue
till it leaves um the fed announcement on January 31st
but it's not an even sell-off so we've got small caps
down a lot and um nastak is trying to break down so it's
it's hard to just decipher from the chart patterns alone
yeah yeah those good points and echoing a little bit through you
uh good points and yeah i could see the self continuing as well until that area
although it's really hard to call it a sell-off at this point like you were
getting out there there's certain names you know the small caps the crypto names
but then you have qqq setting new all-time highs right like literally this
morning um hitting new all-time highs so
it's it's definitely a little bit of a twisted
market here where you have definitely names that are continuing to
crash down i mean think about it everybody has shouted out coin there for
a minute before take a look at coin here it's absolutely
getting hammered into the ground it's now down two percent it was down about 1.1
when i first mentioned it and at the same time you have you know
qqq up half a percent and not looking that bad this morning still constructive
you know you've got apple it's up on the air you got invidia
it's almost at 600 a share so just crazy to see things continue to move
uh let's hit sim real quick and then we'll come over to
our geese as well sim good morning what are you watching
hey good morning everybody um i actually took invidia for a little bounce this
morning uh perfectly at that 572 ish area which
was kind of nice for a quick scalp to the upside um
other than that i'm watching tessa want to see if this 210 level is going
to hold for us might be able to see some continuation
back up to this 212 and then back up to 216 which would be
really nice um overall spies just a little bit weak
here this morning uh we had some meta news that came out
just some forward guidance on ai stuff and then also we had some news um
when it comes to invidia i think that the i don't know the exact number per
se but i do know that um meta was going to be investing
pretty heavily into some chips when it came to invidia so
i was expecting to see a little bit more continuation here to the upside with
meta but um we're kind of just stalling out
here um i mean we're getting new highs that
are being built right here on meta today but
i uh i just expected some more volume to come in
but i also have this uh this data just that i had written down
on monday that i'm just looking forward to here which is existing home sales and
then consumer sentiment what's going to be at 10
o'clock so might be that mark is just kind of waiting on that spies just kind
of stalling out here there's not um as much volume as i like in the
morning uh on the second little candle here
kind of died off halfway so just waiting for that
that 10 o'clock data to be released and then i'll probably look for an entry
from there um but as of now looking for a pullback
on meta back down to around that 380-ish level
see if you can take it for a bounce there and then for tesla
like i said that two tennis area uh other than that really just going to be
sitting around i'm really waiting for this data to
come out and then potentially taking some trades after that on spy and spx
sounds good sim definitely let us know if you are taking anything and
thank you for sharing out the space and thank you a yesha just saw that and
everybody else that's been retweeting or sharing out the space i
try to retweet it if you tweet it out i see it so thank you
again for all doing that all right uh let's come over to nargis what
are you watching this morning
hey good morning so uh spy just filled the gap at 4704
and i was trying to long es from here so i'm doing that
i had a few leftovers amd from before uh tesla
now went long yesterday 208 so that's something to hold on to
and then let's see it's going to reverse here
212 213 that has been a very sweet spot for tesla it's a very strong demand
between 212 to 193 so that's where i'm looking for it to
you know give it a bit of a surprise yesterday we got the ba i got out first
batch around 213 second batch i have for the retest of the low and then
hitting 214 217 217 is the gap ideally i wanted to test
225 220 228 and then fire from there for 300
so that's something to watch a few underdogs
are there which you know can surprise if things are all good in the lalaland
meta about to hit um the all-time high into another two more points two two
and a half points so after this i'm looking for close to
400 398 to 401 406 if it has any interest because your
amd and your media are very stretched 482 to 485
so and be a little bit careful because es again today hit 41.25
and it again pull back from there so if at all we go back up here i'm expecting
that there should be enough because it's a 40
point move for xpx to hit the all-time high approximately 40 points so
doing today i don't know but maybe next week it may try that again if he's
managed to stay over 4804 so these are some of the positions i'm trying to
you know i existing ones i'm managing and just trying to see where es wants to
do because it is again a very tight range and what
happens around 41.25 would be very interesting so yeah
one more thing your banks are weak gs today made a new low
so those are under pressure and only thing you know happening is qqq and
mostly semiconductors so something to keep the eye on very
closely because if things just hit a certain level then
maybe before fumc they do go and fill that es contract gap below
and you know we'll still be okay and power will still get
his chance to be the knight in shining armor
that's his biggest wish yeah sorry well who's that
all right by the way a couple quick updates here so coin
trying to balance out a little bit but down 2.25 percent and just continuing to
set new lows tesla on the other hand sim are you uh
you trading any tesla here it's been ripping to the upside this morning
we got meta ripping google ripping tech ripping
i'm waiting for meta to pull back um tesla i just yeah i'm my entry was two
so i'm not gonna even touch it but that tape
is going wild on it right now so um i'll be watching
mainly meta right now uh and video like i said i was in that
earlier so i took it for a bounce already but
um and also watching spx as well we can get above and hold over this
4790 ish area i'll see if we uh if the bids are
holding hard there if they are and i'll definitely look for some
upside there too um apple's pushing pretty nicely this
morning as well looks like it's trying to orb right here
but i'm really looking for that 190 level on apple because
a lot of supply right there also just a little bit of a psych level so
that might be a little area of interest just not yet
like i said we still have that data coming out in 15 minutes we got
two sets of data coming out both at the same time so
expect some potential volatility there i'd rather just kind of sit on my hands
and wait but this meta does look really good so i'll be waiting for that
sounds good yeah nice move up there on spy so or on tesla so far this morning
what's the data coming out at seven or ten i say seven is west coast
yeah we got a home sales and then we have um
oh god dave portno he's back on live trading grind yeah wasn't he the
dude that did he buy save a couple days ago
he bought it yesterday okay what um what did he buy that you know
he actually bought it at 580 so he's actually up
a decent amount wow and people like making fun of him
uh well it dropped 25 literally immediately after he bought
but then i don't know if you're looking at it it rebounded pretty strong
and it went all the way back up and then he was in green at the end of the day
and then it went up it was up another 36 this morning at one point
wow i just hope he's still down 60 um year to date
shout out spirit airlines
yeah video looking semi-constructive very nice
let's see leah what else has been catching
your eye and are you swinging anything into next week i am actually i
don't trade today because um believe it or not i went to tamper
and i forgot my laptop so i'm here strangled with only my phone but
i got before i left two days ago on wednesday
i got into elastic and i got into smci i bought more when it uh was around 310
and that's exactly like ugly dip i think it was every test to 20
exponential moving average so i'm a happy camper with dead one
and what else do i have let me see um s and ci elastic and intel i'm in
intel as well um for a couple of days and i just was
going to save all the iwn small cup index actually i was checking some data
this morning and there is for fact a lot of uh put
buying happening so because of the higher for longer idea of interest rates
it might be that the small cups will go lower so kim i agree with you
i'm not that sure it's i'm very conflicted about the small cups because
yes they need to catch up on but um yeah that was just data showing a lot
of people are betting on them going lower
so yeah that's pretty much it um oh data doc i'm in data doc as well
and these are all trades i opened this week and i'm going to hold until next
week um the data elastic and intel um so yeah
okay a few interesting names they're coming into next week
oh big candle down on amazon here
and meta there's your pullback yeah kim i want to know if anyone is buying
that apple vision pro at 3500 i was listening to bloomberg this morning
kind of the question they were asking was like is this a niche niche you know
area or is this something that can grow um so it's it's really interesting that
this is kind of the i think the the direction they're going right now i
don't know if other just because it's so expensive is it something that'll the
price will come down over time or does anyone here buying it i'm not but
i'm not buying it but it sounds interesting maybe at some point i just
don't know if apple really goes down with prices
from the future from the past i don't know um
i don't see them really doing too many discounts but yeah it sounds interesting
you know i'm i'm sure there are some geeks that are going to be buying this
this but i think meta is building something similar now
do you guys have any info on that their quest i think isn't it called the
quest or something um yeah yeah i was just uh looking into
that too so they're gonna be much cheaper and people are like discussing
the quality which one is gonna be better so
we'll see i have bought the um the quest
and um it sucks um i i mean it was fun for a while
and then that's about it i think it's just like a big hype though
big and overpriced hype yeah that is well definitely overpriced i i don't even
remember how much i had paid for the quest but
um i mean there's like a bunch of games and like some sort of like uh vision
visionary experiences and stuff like that but
other than that i mean there's it's not much
yeah they will they will probably have to come down with price i i can imagine
because it's just so expensive who is going to buy it i mean it's not like
iphone that you can i don't know maybe they're going to offer
some payment plan uh to people that's what i saw
like monthly payments but still we'll see yeah just wondering how it's
going to affect their bottom line or if not at all
like i just think at 3,500 you know it's not it can't go mass production yet
they're probably just testing the waters and see
but i don't think it's going to affect the company in any ways there's so many
uh yeah i think it's interesting i was considering buying one to give it away
you're echoing wolf i think because of your other account no
no it's coming through his mic it's okay though and did you have something to say
um i'm just uh watching to see if um
massac futures are able to get up above their
high of 17255 and i'm struggling i see that tesla
quickly here so we'll see we'll see what happens to i'm very curious to see
whether or not massac stocks are going to be able to really push up higher
because breath is just not agreeing with it at all it's
going in the opposite direction and typically when that happens it's a
it's a head fake for a price and eventually price catches up so it's
going to be an interesting uh uh item to monitor
it's a good point as well there some of my favorite names
getting hit today out of here weird market
i mean celsius is down seven and a half percent
what is going on there what did it get some news or something wolf
must have must have i'm looking at my portfolio i'm going why am i getting
hammered out here uh let's see
um i'm not really seeing too much on it here we go bank of america downgrades
celsius to neutral from buy with the modest price target
price target still 65 bucks which is still i mean
10 by where it's trading uh noting challenges from rivals like monster and
red bull they see challenges i say opportunities
uh analyst jonathan keyporn notes despite strong u.s sales
and growing consumer awareness recent market share declines raise concerns
with monster pushing rain storm expansion and red bull's robust
marketing growth my face hurdles i think this guy is off his rocker
celsius is growing 10 times faster than red bull 50 times
faster than monster they've beat every earnings so i'm not sure what this dude's
talking about if i'm being honest but yeah you know price downgrades of
celsius down 7.7 today i don't know i'm gonna buy some more
that's how i perceived you know yeah i mean the drink at least in
amongst the kids here is on fire and has been for a couple years to be quite
ranked you know my kids were saying oh go get
me celsius and i didn't even know what that was two
years ago you know when they were asking me to buy it
i want to buy more because it's a big down day but you know how you always
hate like raising your average cost because my average is so low on celsius
yeah yeah that's hard how i look at those investments i usually
when i invest i have a certain amount of money
and then i tell myself i will buy let's say 20 companies have hundred thousand
dollars and then it's divided that's just an example
with the same amount and then i try to not go
about the percentage some people just want to have 10 companies you know
because then you end up with like humongous position if you keep adding
on dates like that and then you're like oh wow i'm a little bit oversized
here so it's probably just depends on
on you like how many companies you want to you want to hold and how much you
want to put into each of them just from the risk management
perspective that's how i look at investing
pretty pants on your wall celsius drink is that what you guys are talking
about yes yes yeah i um here in the bay area
which i've never the other day we were talking about on spaces i think it was
on tuesday morning but here in the bay area i haven't
seen it super advertised like i have this week
like i don't know if it's just because i thought about it and now i see it
everywhere but i'm seeing these trucks on the road
and just heavy heavy advertisement of the stuff
and even you know select events and stuff that i have to go to throughout
the week um they're promoting it they're giving
it out they're talking about it more um just
went to the local 7-eleven and there's like an entire setup for it now
so uh they're they're pushing hard when it comes to marketing
that's all good news for wolf
yeah definitely did you what did you buy in at wolf
uh round like well i mean i've been buying over time when i first bought
in it was like super super low i think my average is closer to 20 bucks a
um yeah it's not going anywhere nancy what's going on
um i'm sorry i got distracted i was going to
chime in on the apple headphones i mean the apple vision pearl sorry
yeah what do you what are your thoughts um
i have like the meadow on and um i don't know the area that i'm at like
as soon as that one came out even though it was like kind of stupid and
overpriced whenever like i don't know my daughter
was maybe nine or ten maybe ten
and like she went to a sleepover and like every single kid
had brought one with them to the sleepover
and i also know that the way that apple has awesome advertising and
or not that like marketing so like people that want them i feel like
they've oh i don't know they're like making it
hard to get like they only made a certain amount to make sure that you know
people want them i doubt it's really any better than the other one um
from what like my ex who knows a lot about this stuff
like he was like nah it's like not he was excited about it at first he was
like oh like you know i want to get one like it's coming out
like you know you can order them this day
and he like looked into it in a little bit and is like nah like
not really any better than the other one
that's all yeah i mean i think people have to understand that if they're
buying a version one of something you are uh you're the guinea pig you know
and it's apple so it's probably gonna be pretty good but
it's still a v1 you know where the iphone's pretty good but i'm using the
15th version you know it's it's not exactly the first
it just reminds me of some shit that's gonna fizzle out like
like google glasses who the hell uses those now
like where where are they right do they even come out with a
second generation of that or did it fizzle out before that
no i'm pretty sure they shut down google glasses a long time ago
yeah it just kind of reminds me as like more of a novelty item than anything
not necessarily something that's going to expand in the industry or anything
like that wow yeah this is actually from
june of 2023 google has reportedly killed its project iris
augmented reality glasses the project's leader left the company
four months before that so yeah yeah he probably said screw this
shit please i can't do anything for us i'm out
but um i mean yeah that's that's just kind of what i think is like all of
these these companies are coming out with
these um these virtual reality or or you know
some sort of uh touching upon you know ai or
whatever the case is but it burned now at least it hasn't gone
anywhere i just i i know that meta quest like i said
there's two of them that came out the first one and the second one
i don't even know what the main difference was between the first and
the second one i ended up buying the second one but
like i said i mean it's uh it's sitting in a box downstairs it's not
something that like my day to day doesn't you know make me want to go
ahead and throw that on and do anything with it just kind of uh
like i said like a novelty item something to kind of get
used here and there and and like it in the beginning and then
we also just had data come out right now um
that's kind of clock like i said getting a little push here to the
got it now you show what other data have you been
looking at any stocks you like going into next week
so yeah a couple of stocks that i've been looking at
are the tanker stocks the oil tankers uh one of them is tk
uh which is it's spelled tk as well um and it's it's only an eight dollar
stock but it's been doing quite well um the other one is scorpion tankers
which is stng so the thesis behind this is it's more
of a swing play because you know all these tankers are having
to go around africa now right and there is a
shortage of tankers and therefore you know obviously they're
charging more for a longer run and as well there's
scarcity so i think as long as we keep seeing these
issues in the red sea we will probably get a little bit of a
bid there for a while but i would still keep you know
tight stop losses because these things tend to swing a lot
and then the other one i'm watching is marvel technologies
so they've been doing quite well since the start of the year i think they've
been up something like 10 but now they're at a place where
they're good for like a swing trend because they've taken out their
previous highs and um so i'm watching that i think it's
doing well today as well we yesterday we saw it go up quite a bit
and we're seeing follow through today as well
yeah that follow through is always nice to see and then
so these chinese stocks still down
okay kim uh it seems like there's this rally happening everywhere but small caps
did you have any thoughts on that it's all over my timeline everyone talking
about the small caps were supposed to rally but they didn't
well yeah that's what i was saying this morning i mean i just think
for me personally it's like everyone was getting a little overzealous about
small caps um so when i mean everyone i'm just the
people i'm listening to like i said this morning like on bloomberg on
cmbc and i'm not an analyst of course at that level but
it felt like everyone was getting on one side of the trade and
small caps just blew blew straight up from and i'm going to speak in futures
terms from about 16 i think it was 68 and it went
straight up basically to almost 2000 i think it went over 2000
so um so i think that was just such a huge move and not that things can't keep
rallying because we saw the queues up you know 35 last year
but then when you have the interest rates rising
and you know borrowing costs for um small cap
companies they need to keep borrowing money they don't have the cash that
microsoft has or you know apple has so you know apple and microsoft can kind
of borrow from themselves so to speak and be earning you know high
interest on their cash that they have in the bank but that's not small caps they've
got to be you know borrowing money refinancing all
their dollars all the time and so it's just not
this this isn't a good environment with the rates
jumping back up again and also with the volatility in the rates i'm probably
aisha you could speak a lot to this because of
you know this is what you do is analysis all the time so maybe you can
sure kim you make me sound like such a geek um well i am too i just don't have
time for it all the time i love learning about it and reading it
and no absolutely but you were absolutely right on every point that you
made here um so most of the companies in the
small caps of the russell 2000 are unprofitable companies right and most of
these companies also have revolving credit which is
floating rates of interest so their interest rates are not fixed
those that do have fixed rates of interest
most of them refinance their loans let's say in 2020 and 2021 right so that was
basically when rates were at zero and they probably
refinanced at um for three to four years
which means this year 2024 and 2025 we're coming up on
very large maturity walls for these small caps right
they have to refinance their debt now and when they're going to do that so you
already have the problem of some of them having revolving rates which are going
up by the day and then on the other side
when they are going to refinance they're going to be refinancing them at much
higher rates now with most of these companies being
unprofitable already even those that do have profitability have very low levels
of profitability so cash flow becomes very very tight for
them cap expanding becomes very tight for them
expanding becomes very tight for them so you're absolutely right kim i mean
what we think is that even though people are bullish on small caps because
you know it's just the euphoria it's the animal spirits here
but fundamentally speaking um they are going to have a tough time this year
do you think aisha that like when interest rates get below four that that's
when they become more bullish i mean is there kind of a threshold there
or was it banking on the fact that the fed was going to cut
so much and the rates were below four i meaning the tenure um
that that was making it bullish and now kind of maybe some of that thesis has
gotten blown apart a little bit
so i think the problem is maybe not everyone digs very much into the data
right and sometimes we tend to front run these things
so as a result of which we are probably pricing in something that people are
hoping for next year um and and that's exactly
what's been happening with the magnificent seven as well and the ai
bubble right so part of this ai story we've already priced all of it in
we've pulled forward let's say five to seven years worth of earnings
um into this ai story already and so the markets are getting very very ahead of
themselves um i i'm not going to say whether
they're right or wrong because they are what they are right and we all we can
do is follow the sentiment follow the data
um but at the same time um on a company level
we will see these companies get hurt the small cuts i mean
uh get hurt a little bit um this year and probably next year
i'm not saying they can't recover but you know
in general you'll see low earnings now we always have the situation where
when you do anticipate lower earnings you bring down the estimates and that's
basically all everybody ever sees right beats or misses
um and then probably because you've brought down the estimate so much you're
going to see a hell of a lot of beats but does that mean that it's a good
company to invest in or probably not maybe good to trade but not to invest
loving these conversations if anyone on the panel has thoughts feel free to just
jump in whenever yeah um i just want to say here that
speaking of interest rate i've been monitoring
the 10-year and it is just going up sharply this morning
as interesting as like in two weeks it went from about 3.8 to
4.19 right now and it's you know i mean it's obviously not going to keep going
up in a straight line but um rising rate possibly going back to
four and a half could is not going to be conducive for either
small caps or even um uh certain uh nastax stock so
we'll see the the magnificent seven isn't
aren't going to be affected by this that much
but um we'll see what happens to the rest it's just um
amazing to me how fast rate has been rising again
i appreciate the thoughts there by the way i don't know if anyone's
watching smci this thing's going crazy kim have you been looking yeah i took
i took my profits i have to say it was a swing trade for me
and at this point i'm just like whoa if you're in my store that's different
i'm a momentum trader no swing trader so
i took took my money but it's going absolutely nuts
it's pretty under 92 dollars the calls are the calls are at 5000 percent
yeah the ivy would be very high on them right now so you know after it settles
selling some premium a little bit over 400 would be great
to just write them out this this smci has been a fantastic trade for us
originally bought at you know previous earning drop
around 225 was where i was looking for it came down to 226 so
got it around 230 and a few of the folks exited now at 375
so and 313 was holding so to just two days ago
you know we sculpted long and it was a good surprise
you know waking up today morning so happy friday it's it's been good
so i'm just looking for 361 to hold on it after all this
you know that euphoria settles in and then
you know the projection to 400 to 425 is there
but first let everything settle because your semis are already cutting
at the border and things are still you know meta
netflix your apple everything is everything is at
resistance your tesla was the first one to give in
so let's see whether everything else will pull it up
or this alone itself is going to bring everything down
so that's what i'm looking for oh yeah i don't trade that stock wolf
and um because i owned it at 50 and sold it so i've had a few like that
so i don't trade it because it irritates me
came i understand i bought it for 65 and then i made hundred percent i sold
i felt like a champ it's almost like it's gone
and then i just like swing trading and because i was like this is too much
this is too high and look at that you never know but at
least uh i swing traded but i mean irritated as well and i didn't hold in
my investment portfolio yeah i mean i've had we were talking
about it on monday on spaces and i had like
elf at seven dollars i don't know i'm i'm
i kind of have this keen eye for like oh kind of these new areas but then
i just like you i i hold i'm like oh i made
enough good money and i don't look at it long i mean obviously i have a long
term portfolio but i don't look at some of those
smaller unknown stocks long term so and i got rid of elf at like 14
i mean look where elf sat now
so kim next time you're about to sell something please let us
yeah i know i will yeah the smci actually when you
said 65 i just remember it was first brought to my
attention by rosanna you know she used to post about smci
and that's uh that's when i came to know about this
uh and since then i have been monitoring and then i
exited a few times out of the out of that but the cycle price was higher and
then you know i think 225 or so that's where i thought you know it has
done quite a few at least two or two and a half cycles so i exited there and
after that it's only been trading and after that it literally went crazy you
know 300 something 357 i think it was and from
there it crept back to that 225 cycle level so that's when you know i got
confidence that you know it's going to test that again
hammer it and then go back up so you know i should thank her actually for
bringing that stock to my attention
so nothing is happening right now looks like
it's a kind of a standstill because your xpx is settling
the monthly expiration which happened yesterday
so today morning it settles so that's where your
options are you know fooling the bulls fooling the bears
happens so you know they're just standing it still
and after that the pitting action starts so friday is mostly i mean if
you're trying to trade then it's generally not a
great day to trade because because of these
options especially the opex week options expire
and then pinning action and
premiums are mostly settling in versus and only few stocks moving around
so yeah so i trade generally very less but i just manage my position exit from
before or later part of the day i see if those stocks are holding then
you know go for next week or further out paypal is another one i have been
mentioning here especially on the spaces it it is almost 64 now bought it
again at 57 and that's the important area i was
watching for so you know if it manages to hold 63 because
that's where it failed last time then probably this taxi is good 69 to 75
the next run so you know keep an eye on this one
i've been long on this one since 57
sam did you take any trades because you know spx i was watching it it moved down
got slammed down like 10 points i didn't take anything but did you
no i was um trying to take it right there at the bottom
i actually did get in it and then i got out at well i got out at plus 10 cents
i meant to get out i just break even because the tape uh completely reversed
and it just and then the contracts um were losing value as the ticker was
climbing up so ivy was essentially dying out
so um and i was taking the 47 90 calls pretty close to the money
so whenever i see something like that happen and the ivy's essentially killing
the contracts like that um that's not a move for me the
volume also is just kind of falling apart too
now we're looking for bids to kind of hold over this 477.7 ish area
if we get there then i'll look for some upside other than that like i'm just
gonna kind of wait um i still have decent profits in the
video from the morning so i'm just sitting on like a good little
cushion there if i do take spx though i'm gonna
really control my sizing today i'll be taking half size today if i do choose
nice yeah tesla got slammed there so that was the um
that was the new home that was the home sales data right
and the interest consumer so go ahead i thought it was um
what do you call it michigan where they
yeah existing home sales just came out
and then at seven wasn't it the interest rate prediction or something
so this said that home sales last year dropped to the lowest level in 28 years
that's right uh i didn't see the michigan consumer
sentiment just yet but yes i believe that came out much higher
yeah that came out much much higher than expected
that was the one since that came out at 10 o'clock
yeah full year home sales for 2023 were just 4.09 million units
which is really low it's actually never been that low in my entire lifetime
can you repeat that what was the number full year home sales for 2023 was 4.09
million units that's it yeah that's lowest of my
so yeah nobody's buying but the prices are not going down as much are they
especially in where i lived in miami it's not where i lived
not at all they're actually going up so i don't know
well i would say miami's a little different yeah
that's that's but i mean seattle area it's seattle area it's like
um everything's just holding i mean it's still really inflated from a couple
years ago i mean we had somewhat of a drop down but
it was like smci right it just barreled straight up and of course it was going
to take a breather how about you how about you sim because
you're in bay area dude they're like they're almost like
skyrocketing it feels like they're not going anywhere um
i mean there's no there's no attractive pricing out here everything is
so expensive it's ridiculous so when i hear that it's kind of like
i mean are are people buying though out here
at least where i live i'll see a sale pending i mean i'll see a you know for
sale sign and then a couple days later see a
sale pending sign because people are just buying a ton out here um
but in terms of prices and like you know fluctuation
it's not going down that's for sure
yeah they seem to be holding up i know seattle too seattle's um uh holding
really well too i don't i don't see any because i'm in that
kind of business right now where i'm um you know trying to look for
various different types of property and uh it's uh
from the price that i saw out there too it's it's not
it's definitely not going down as much as i thought it would there's no uh
essential attractive pricing out there either just for me
yeah i mean you know where i live which is just east
kind of east north of seattle um it's like i mean everything's over a
million dollars you know and then you put an interest
rate on top of that of five six percent one thing you'll notice though is that
new home sales here um the the builders are buying down
interest rate so you can actually get in a new home here for four percent
i don't know what kind of gimmicks are going along with that but i see it
advertised and by reputable builders out here
you know four percent interest rate um so that's interesting so that's you know
maybe that's also digging into the profits of
builders or banks or i don't know who how they're offering that
clh slight bounce but not much still sitting down here baba
another red day baba now down 11 percent on the year
talked about that yang index right at the beginning of the space
they are up 33 on the year now up 4.4 percent on the day they were up about
3.2 when we first started talking so they moved up another percent as well
uh lithium getting hammered some of these shippers and oil getting hammered
obviously all the crypto stocks getting hammered right here some of the
but yeah when you go and look at it spies green cues are green
hey wolf i just bought my first small very small position commons in
yeah i do want to grab more i'll go log that on the
thing that we use so that everyone could see it yeah please do please do
yeah yeah this spot is usually where coils is right around
the view up from the gap of back in may of 2023
this has been a huge spot for it so it's it's it's a little bit above it still
it's about a dollar and a half above it
but it's been a very very large area and then you have a ton of volume when
you get down to 50 per share well i've been wanting to get in uh for
a while so um i think you know someone down i think there they'll
either be a potential buyout candidate or you know i've been wanting to get in it
so this is as good of time as any on this move i think
yeah you know but i just bought small
it's funny to me with the apple vision pro we were always told you know
don't put your eyes so close to screens sit back from the computer
don't get so close to the tv and now it's strapped to your face
i just want to chime in and say um i've seen the ads for those things
and um it shows you know somebody talking to someone else while wearing one
of those devices and it's just the most ridiculous looking
thing but i'm sorry there is nothing cool about wearing
those things at all it's not like you're wearing a pair of
ray-band you look absolutely ridiculous walking around like that
so from a purely cool factor i don't think i would want to
comment very fair very fair you should i want to bring it
back over to you once more and then maybe Anne Marie
hear from y'all you know how do you feel so far with this year we're about
you know two weeks of the market into it and curious
you know what what do you see as maybe some of the themes of the year do you
think ai's can have strong continuation or perhaps some other themes pop up
so i i think where ai is concerned um it will have continuation i don't think
this is something like the metaverse which will just die out um speaking of
the apple vision pro um but i think the thing with
ai is that we want to see it kind of spread out right so it's only been
concentrated in a handful of stocks and these guys have been using the ai
you know terminology uh to their benefit but i think as as it gets spread out
over more and more companies and i was reading this uh
cio survey from morgan stanley and there are quite a few people or
chief investment chief information officers who are actually thinking about
increasing spending in ai in training some of their you know
junior level staff in ai but a lot of this has is planned for the second half of
the year so i think for the first half of the year
it's more of a wait and see approach by everyone where businesses are concerned
again it goes back to the issue of those cap expense right
um i think people are waiting to see what the fed does with interest rates
how fast they cut when they start cutting and
you know whether we do see a resurgence in inflation or not
um my view is the fed starts cutting in june july
um and they will be very gradual in their approach and so if that's the case i
think a lot of the companies will try to push back spending to next year when
rates are far lower right um so i think this year is going
to be a very let's say wait and see approach
kind of year um and the ai team will also take that
you know um approach of wait and see
yeah i i think that's very fair a little bit of wait and see annemarie what do
you think you know i'm really focused on
what the dollar is doing and um how the uvxy is responding overall
in pricing formations i have less risk on than i normally do
simply because i feel like the rubber bands are stretched a little bit and you
can see by the intra day volatility today and today being um the biggest
monthly opex that we've ever had i suspect that we see a lot of gyrations
and so in terms of what i'm looking at i still want to see if oil breaks out of
this space um i'm more looking at the uh index
itself to see how it's moving i thought that the
note i think let's i can't remember who it was i think it was leah
who said something like hey we've only got uh
a fairly small percentage of stocks up and over their 20 smas
and that i find to be super interesting so although it sounds a lot like a punt
getting into the big playoff games this weekend
i really am in a wait and see pattern just looking for really sharp dips
to pick up some of my favorites and you know i i still like cyber security i
still like fortnite i still like um crowd strike
uh i i love palo alto networks but they're all uh pricing into spaces
where i'm not willing to go hey yeah i'm gonna buy some more of that
so that's really where it is i'm sitting at as a whole
coming in to the end of this month that could tell us a pretty interesting tale
yeah we are yes i agree with ann um i'm i'm literally not buying anything this
year i'm just enjoying whatever i bought in
the past and i'm swing trading very short term
because again like there are a couple of stocks that are pulling the market higher
but the rest doesn't look so great and at the moment we have a little bit
of cellophane dose um the market will likely plus we are in all time highs which
would uh result in some sort of a retest so i'm
just being really patient that's pretty much what i do and um i
try to be in less trades because last week i made a mistake i got into five
trades and we had that big dip um and i was positioned in small cups
since uh november i do it every year because that's when they have
the small cups rally every year around that time not always hundred percent
nothing is hundred percent but that's the seasonality
and early this year i realized that it's time to
to get out i got stopped out of some of trades last week
and now i'm focusing on just uh bigger cups mega cups and safer stocks for
swing trades so that's the strategy i'm going to be
doing going forward and keeping playing it safe keeping the
profits because last year was amazing and i don't want to give it back
you know how it works people make a lot of money and then they lose a lot of money
right after so i don't want to do it and thank you so
much for having me i think i will have to go
accepting the teams uh thank you ladies it was great to be
chatting with you have a great weekend save here
hey i just saw that what i was trying to say the data
it's the u.s michigan one-year inflation expectations
the actual was 2.9 versus 3.1 for the one year and the five year
still came in softer 2.8 versus 2.9 so that was some new data that came out
okay nice thank you kim so sim have you taken any of these
trades yet today uh some of the other pieces meta's
kind of just been not doing a whole lot it's been sitting
here i was about to actually take spx um i'm
looking at the 4800 calls i'm just like i said i'm just going to
take half size because i'm pretty decently in profits on the day
um so just kind of looking for that right now looking for a little pull
back down to 4792 and then i'll see if bids are holding
there some decent buy size that's coming in
and then take it for upside other than that i mean meta's pretty decent
um i i mean now it's kind of stalling around that 380 level that was my bounce
area but you can see that volume just kind
of like evaporated so it's not something that i want to touch
um tessa broke underneath that 210 level now it's trying to reclaim if we do
reclaim around that 210.5 ish level i'll look for a bounce
from there maybe take over some upside and then
for um nvidia kind of stalled out like i said earlier
at that 572ish level and then right now we're sitting at 578.5 ish
um not something that i really want to take for upside just yet
maybe i'll wait for the orb instead 580 level
wait for the orb and then look for a pull back there potential entry there
uh but for spx here looks like pretty decent little pull back that we're
getting and i'll be taking it for calls right here
so i'm in 4800 calls and i'm in at 540
so 4800 calls okay keeping on it we're gonna do another 10 more minutes on here
as well so if anybody else wants to get in any trades now's a good time
go ahead and call them out tessa's still down about a percent apple about half a
percent there's a couple other areas that are
still staying interesting to me let's see
nargis have you placed any uh trades today anything in future standing out to
you um no not this thing i was i'm looking
for smci to you know for the premium but it's
you know going going going i scalped yes yes few points here and there that's all
because you know it's still a tight range so 48 25 48 23 to 25 it's where it was
not liking and that was the tight range and then we have that 41 25 so not
much remaining so i was looking too short there
around you know any spike we get um above 41.5
if at all it does that otherwise i'll short below it
if it tries to get it and once it loses 48 31 chances are we may get some sell
so that's what i'm looking for i may exit a few of my longs like apple
and google uh amazon and stuff like that so
amd i'm just almost ready to exit because
smci will also stall so you know don't want to take it overnight
you know anything can happen that's all right i have few longs
so i'm just going to manage with a hedge with an active long-term hedge put on
so you know we don't wake up to surprise so
yeah that's all yes but after above 48 25 it could be
skype long till 31 to 41.25 uh that's that's the marker there so
i think it is settling above 48 18 right now
so if it doesn't lose that anymore then it should try to hit that maybe later
part of the you know a little bit uh once this
opaque settlement happens uh then you know it may it may do that maybe
it's 7 33 here so probably 8 39 it should start doing that
uh cues by tesla all slight pullbacks here
smci still going it was like i had to turn it up i had to
turn it off it's crazy what what news why did it
uh they released uh they pre pre-announced uh
guidance and it was way way way higher than people thought
uh you know if i posted uh smci uh i think few weeks ago
sometime there it had it was in that triangle
and it was resisting that upper end of the triangle it had already done four
times and then last week it exited out of that
and yesterday or day before yesterday it came down to test it around 313 or early
300s basically and from there it got it powered and
100 points just like that so i'm just glad that you know uh was
able to took some long and few other people you know
from my group also took it pretty happy campers they were today
for more than 100 points and few long-termers from 20
to 230 around there so yeah good friday but now time to protect the
profits a bit wow i mean that's amazing argy's did you
play the options or the commons so um options on smci it's it costs an arm
and a leg right it's not that liquid so this is how i played i played smci
far otm contracts like for example 375 those ones and i did butterfly and
spread but the other one which i played was arm
from it went back to 65 so got long from 66 again second round
now it is 76 so you know that was the one underdog and it had good strength and
the target was 81 on it so that's that's one thing i was looking
for to go once you know amd and nvidia stabilizes
so yeah so sometimes you know what happens what i've realized is if you
take butterflies on these complex or other high beta stocks
then the butterfly doesn't reward as much so you know
going on a cds or just a far otm strike helps so that's why you know because
since everybody was concentrating on nvidia icon i i was looking at smci
and um yeah arm so those tools this might be the biggest game in its one
sorry no go for it oh i'm taking a 28 little scalp right here
uh took some percentage i mean took some contracts off right here on spx
um just locking in some profit i got all my runners at breakeven stop and
thank you for whoever was talking about smci because while i was in that i also
took a scalp on that those contracts moved
incredibly well yeah smci is just powering i don't know if i've ever seen
contracts move this much in a day the 405s on smci went up two hundred and
thirty two thousand dollars two hundred and thirty two thousand percent today
oh my gosh that's insane i don't think i've ever seen that
as a game they went from they were trading out i think a penny and they're
worth twenty four dollars a contract can you imagine
no that's actually mind-blowing just if you would grab like five or six
for you know five bucks which you could have turned that into
i'm trying to look to see if um there was any unusual flow
but it wouldn't even be unusual to be quite honest because
a lot of people were talking about them potentially pre-announcing but yeah
there's some money coming in i mean i just saw people drop another three four
hundred k right now in two calls on smci they they were talking
about it on black box stocks yesterday because i listened to them
and i i wasn't clue i wasn't clueing into where they were saying
because i kind of tune out smci so but they were they were definitely bringing
it up but i don't know what strikes they were talking about
yeah this this person i mean they weren't weighing the money
somebody bought the 360s this morning right at the open 28 seconds into the
open they bought the 360s uh for february 16th
and they put in half a million dollars
yeah nobody nobody was buying this far out i'm literally going through the
chain like people now are buying like i see
someone bought the 430s like 4540 minutes ago imagine how much
money they made they put in 90k they're 40 minutes ago
all right we are almost at the top of the hour what a fun way
to uh uh top out this one we've got one more space coming up but keep an eye on
smci this thing's just went through 415 right there
it's up 33 percent on the day just an absolute rip reminder this is a 21
billion dollar market cap so this is like a
seven billion dollar move um that it just had
well now that's much larger market cap uh let's see
uh kim you got any final comment before i roll to my next one
it's just really fun and amazing to be on with you ladies
i love it everybody brings such a different perspective it's so fun and
so um yeah thanks i just love being on with
the women and wolf the women and wolf
love it sim uh you got any other comment
anybody else um you know just uh uh be be a little cautious
uh if you guys made some money in the morning for me i always size down after
i make a good chunk in the morning and play the rest of the day with
profits that's what i will personally be doing
um this smci is a rocket i don't i don't i wasn't able to call out my
entry on here because i didn't want to interrupt people but
um it's flying i'll look for another bounce
around that 408 ish area and then for spx still making a little move right here
um i took a trim at 30 holding all runners at break even like i said
earlier i hope everybody has a good rest of their day
is there's nothing like closing out the week green so
if you're doing on the day um walk away and go and enjoy your
weekend take care guys and looking forward to the next one
thank you wolf thanks sim all right i do have to roll
up this next one nargisa do you have any other comment
no i think we are still thinking around and
you know nothing um changed and smci hit 416 417 so it's already
at close to 425 so everything in a day so yeah arm is going 76 77 almost
paypal 65 another one i was looking at cvna yesterday got a very small position
in it at up close to 42 because it has a strong bullish divergence
to retest the high but again this is the qqq season so all tech earnings all
money is in and all the eyes uh also on the
text so that's why small caps and everything else will
not move as much you know so once your tech earnings is done
so then probably all these you know the other sector may see some love
basically perfect thank you nargis thank you
kim aisha sim and everybody that's been on with us stick
around if you're in the audience we got one more space coming up here this
friday for you we're gonna be talking lithium
which is honestly something i've been really excited to learn more about
because i am invested aisha did you have something there
no so we just have the pc data next week just something to watch out for
on friday next friday perfect all right we'll keep an eye out
all right francis you ready to hop into this with me
i am here and let's do it oh perfect okay let's get going oh and i
think we're getting a little feedback to yours okay let's get going we're
gonna be chatting here with francis from the team over at
lyft i'm gonna get some context pinned up in the top of the space as we're
going here we've actually done space before with
the team over from lyft and so if you were in it
you'd understand a little bit about the company and if you weren't don't worry
we're gonna kind of walk you through all the details as needed
but francis i think a good place to start as always is with an introduction of
yourself and your background and who you are so
why don't you go ahead and do that i'll get a couple things pinned up top i've
got a disclaimer i got a readout after that
and then we will keep things rolling and if you were in the audience i'm trying
to get up on my last space but you were a guy so i wasn't bringing you up on my
wooden wall street now is a great time so dill 21 million if you guys want to
jump up go for it and francis let me turn the
sure so my name is francis mcdonald i'm the ceo lift power
and my background is i'm an exploration geologist
and so i was the guy out in the field in the middle of nowhere banging on rocks
looking for new mineral deposits and so i did that
for about 10 years i spent a lot of that time with newmont
mining which is the biggest gold producer in the world
and so i was around the world looking for these deposits
and then after 10 years of doing that and having some success with newmont i
said finding finding deposits and adding value
for for the biggest mining company in the world or a gold mining company
i can probably do this for myself and so i started a company called kinora
land minerals in 2016 and we made a
gold discovery in that with uh big japanese company sumitoma metal mining
and what we were doing was looking for new
exploration opportunities and we focused on gold and copper because that's
where 50 or sorry 70 percent of the dollars for exploration go in the world as
to those few metals but this was really when this battery
metals trend was just starting so that was firing up and we said
okay what else can we look for and in canada we were focused we said
okay nickel and lithium is probably a good
place to look so we started looking for those two commodities
and came up with some opportunities spun out a company
and that's what has become lyft power which is listed on the toronto venture
exchange as laft and again i'm the ceo of that so
that's where i'm coming from come from a commodities and you know mining
exploration background and now looking for lithium
perfect appreciate that highlight explanation and introduction there francis
so just as we get into this i just want to let the audience know
like i mentioned before we've been doing a series of spaces where
we are so lucky to be working directly with publicly traded companies
obviously our audiences they're investors they're traders they're people
that are looking for these kind of things
and what better to do than bring the source directly to them right it's
rare that people get to hear straight from the ceos of these firms without
being on an earnings call and everything is all bureaucratic right
and so as we do it on the spaces it's important to give proper disclosure as
well that this is an advertisement it's a paid advertisement but it's intended
for informational purposes only it's not a recommendation or an endorsement of
any specific stock or investment strategy because investing involves risk
including the possibility of losing your entire investment
which is why i encourage everybody use this as an opportunity to start your due
diligence process conduct thorough research
but always know that there's ways that you can dive deeper and i've gone ahead
and i've linked a tweet in the top of the space that has
the full deep dive on everything you need to know about
this industry company lithium again i personally am invested in lithium
i'll explain a little bit why as we go through this space and give some
context to it so it's something that i do encourage
everybody to go do their due diligence directly into as well while up here
so with that being said let's get a little bit further into it francis can
you tell us about the company and you know what the real value prop is
here from the company and what an investor is looking at
sure so the company is we're focused on developing
hard rock lithium deposits in canada and specifically our
yellow knife project which is located just outside the city of yellow knife
in in canada and so the value proposition is that we believe we have
one of the largest hard rock lithium deposits in north
america so there's two parts to this it's that you
need to have a big deposit because that's going to produce a long
mine life and you need to be near infrastructure
because we are moving a lot of ground to make lithium that goes into batteries
and if you're in the middle of nowhere it doesn't make sense so
that's what we think we have is we think we have a huge resource base so
i think really it's probably one of the top
uh three in north america and we are located in a good area that we can
actually get that product to market
so let's talk about what that means located in a good area what's a good
area versus a bad area for someone that doesn't understand this how does it
help you go to market sure so i'll just talk through the
process so when i say hard rock lithium it's
basically like a big vein of granite and this is a special kind of
vein of granite it's got a lithium-bearing mineral called spodumene
in it and that mineral is what we're after
and so when we're mining this stuff it's like a big vein that crosses the
landscape we're going to crush up all of this
rock and we're trying to concentrate that mineral called spodumene
so when we actually do that we produce a spodumene concentrate we
need to ship that to some place that converts that
mineral to a lithium chemical which would be
lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate and
when it's converted to that that's what the battery manufacturers
are buying is they're buying carbonate lithium carbonate or lithium
hydroxide and that's what goes into the electric cars
so that's that's kind of the whole supply chain and why the logistics are
important is going back to the beginning of that
the supply chain starts with this spodumene concentrate
and so to give an idea of this like a world-class deposit is something like
100 million tons of ore and it's about an eight let's say eight
to one ore to concentrate ratio so you end up
having to ship out 12 million tons of
cut out for me for a second is it just me action
no he's gone okay hey and he's back all right sorry francis you cut out for
about 10 seconds for us there if you could just rewind about 10 seconds
can't tell if his service connection is not great at the moment
so i can jump in for a second here action pretty excited to have you up on
stage i feel like you were the the ma i i wasn't expecting a lithium
masterclass from you last time we got this going
but then you just jumped in and you had all the answers
what do you mean you don't you don't like talking about spudges spudges right
sat man you gotta love some spudge apparently
that's uh it's what is all the rage nowadays
so here i think francis having a little bit of trouble
i'm gonna give him a second i'll shoot him a message
but action i'm i'm pretty excited to have you on stage with us too i'd love to
hear francis can you hear us
no he's he's he's out of it all right action maybe you can give me kind of the
one two and like how did you get interested in lithium how did you know
well we kind of run live in a world where lithium is
key nowadays between cars and everything else that's electronic in your house
you got lithium around it and i've always been that person that tries to
figure out okay so i love the devices that i use but how
can i make money where is the money coming from and
looking at the trends of like all right everything uses
batteries what's in the batteries lithium how can i get involved in
that aspect of it and it was just going down the rabbit hole and i'm having
that understanding that if there is a common thread between
things that you use well there's money to be made there
yeah that's a great point all right francis we got you back up you got us
i can't i can't still hear him unfortunately so
let me give him a second as we keep going here but action i like what you
were saying they're kind of just attracted to the opportunity
is it something about lithium being in short demand
that attracted you was it something else along those lines that kind of
got it started and then when you went to your research you were clearly
knowledgeable about this where did you do your research i want
people to be able to replicate that sure um so i get interested in lithium
because obviously i'm coming from a commodities background
and how i got interested in this is usually when we are defining mineral
deposits we need to be drilling holes and
because we see what's on surface but we need to understand what's in the
subsurface so i was looking at
and he's muted again for me i think he's having some technical issues
sorry that's um yeah i'm not sure why i'm
going on mute there but um are you are you on desk are you on desktop or on a
cell phone by the way i'm on a cell phone right now weird
it should be fine if it's usually as long as you're on iphone it is fine but
we've got you back now um it is a i can't tell if there's
noise around you perhaps or something to do with your
service sometimes if you're on wi-fi versus
on 4g it can give you a little bit of a different experience so
you may just want to play around with those things lightly just making sure
in your place with strong wi-fi and quiet background but yeah we have you
back now if you wanted to keep sharing that thought
yeah no i mean so how i started on it was about
how many meters of drilling need to go in different
commodities to create a feasibility study
and so when i say that we have to drill holes into the ground to understand
how big of a resource is there and those holes that we drill into the
ground are a different amount of meters the
deeper the resources in the ground obviously the more we have to drill from
surface and each one of those holes costs a lot of
money so how i got into lithium was looking at
gold copper and the metric that i came up with was that lithium it was
in order of magnitude difference in order to define a feasibility study
so to give you an idea about that for a gold deposit
it's probably between half a million and one and a half million meters of drilling
and a meter of drilling right now is costing about 700
$700 a meter so that's about three and a half or sorry 350 million to about a
billion dollars to define a resource and for a
lithium deposit at that time it was 10 000
to 50 000 meters of drilling and again that's about 70 million to about
100 million dollars to define a major lithium resource
so that's that's kind of how i got into this it was just uh
it was an arbitrage of of you know we can drill the same amount of meters in
the ground but the value that we get out of it
is different between gold and lithium so i started looking into this we came
across an asset that we think is like i was
saying one of the largest lithium resources in
in north america and that's how that's how i got into it
appreciate that yeah it's good to have a little bit of color because it's not
the thing that you know everybody gets into right so
you have to be uh looking for it in some way shape or form a little bit
unique to get into that area now the big thing that i'll i'll point
out to people who haven't checked this out
is in the article that i pinned to the top it outlines that these lithium
deposits are so large that they are actually
visible from space right and so we that's crazy but then at the other side
of this it's like okay well there's clearly
a lot of lithium then if they're that large
so where's the lithium going where's that demand for so i just want to kind
of read this out for people since 2015 the global ev market has grown by more
than 50 percent per year and ev demand was up 62 percent in just
the first half of 2022 alone let alone 2023 let alone 2024
where we are now the international energy association recently forecast that
there will be 145 million evs on global highways at the
end of this decade that's a staggering increase from the 16.5
million on the road again at the end of 2021
so you're looking at about 130 million ev increase and of course all of
those new electric vehicles are actually going to hit the road
are going to need batteries and that means lithium tons and tons of lithium
this is why i am bullish on lithium in this area
this transition towards electric vehicles and the global move towards green
energy is probably something most of you in the
audience are familiar with but you may have not realized where
lithium plays into this so Francis it'd be good if you could give
a little bit more color as to how much of this lithium
do you see going towards this ev revolution
or where else is there going to be massive demand that people wouldn't
even have thought of sure so i mean i think the ev
narrative is is where most of it's going right now but there's also
the storage narrative as well and that would be i think i just saw an
article recently that hawaii has uh phased out a coal plant
because they've been able to put a huge battery storage
facility there with solar or wind power so i think that's
something that we will see growing in the future but for the
near term i think the ev narrative is what's
so as you said you know i think lithium's
i mean the the growth rate in in demand is about 20 to 30 percent
it's an interesting place in the list because we do have this constant
demand growth but supply has grown very quickly
and so we've met the current demand amount
and so lithium prices have been down in the last
six months or so but this is something that
people have to realize in the commodities market that commodities are
inherently cyclical and the only way
everyone is calling a bottom in lithium in the next month
three months six months you know no one knows exactly where it is but
everyone agrees that at these price levels
there is no incentive to build new lithium deposits
and we need them in the future so this is really in my opinion this is
the time to get into this and you can look at any commodity you need
to be buying this at the bottom so i think that's
really the value proposition here is like there is going to be demand in the
future we know that we're going towards an
electric future and if you want to play these cycles
this is the time to be playing them at the bottom
yeah that's interesting so so the cycle you know can you explain people really
like why this is necessarily a bottom for the cycle
you would think you know as eb demands growing this would just be surging with
it but it is cycling right it's going through
these ups and downs what's kind of causing those
uh areas of the upturn and downturn sure so
you know that as as the world grows we pump more money into finding more lithium
and so we've brought a lot of lithium online in the last couple years
but we've also seen in the last month or two that some of these lithium mines are
closing down and we've also seen a lot of geopolitical
aspects come into play as well so chile has been enforcing royalties on
chile and companies anyone in chile and sqm is one of the biggest lithium
producers they've been partnering with the state company because they're unsure
about the atmosphere in chile which is the second biggest
lithium producer and then another area that's been affecting supply
is been africa and there's uh zimbabwe so zimbabwe has been
we've had chinese companies in zimbabwe that have been
shipping ore or rock out of zimbabwe and sending it back to china
and zimbabwe is at the point where they say no we're not allowing that anymore
you have to be refining this in country so that's going to be changing
the supply dynamic i think a lot of swing productions coming out of africa
also low cost lapidolite production in china
and so at the prices that we're at right now a lot of that doesn't make any
sense and so i mean i know people personally
that have been in zimbabwe shipping ore to africa and they're and they're
coming out of it they're just saying we can't make money out of this anymore
so the thing is is that when you have a big
world-class deposit that's going to get up into production
and be making money throughout cycles that's the thing
where you want to be i think investing in as a major
mining company especially um and you know junior companies having assets like
that are where major mining companies want to
want to acquire assets like that and so that's again the reason why we're
seeing these big swings in in prices we have big demand coming
in constantly growing we have supply that's
meeting that demand but then again it's it's dropping off as the prices come
well put also francis i don't know if there's some music in your background or
something we keep kind of hearing things it makes you a little hard to hear
so if you're nearby something you may just want to
move away from it uh if not i'm not sure what it is and i apologize
uh okay so let's talk a little bit about potential catalysts coming up
what's the upcoming news flow look like what are you really excited for in 2024
okay i'll give it a second as we try to get him back action i'm going to flip
back to you while we're waiting for him to jump back
in what are you looking forward to in 2024 in the world of lithium if there
is anything on that table unless francis if you're back with us i kind
of hear some noises but i can't tell if he's fully here
yep no i'm i'm here okay okay i do have you here okay so we're
looking yeah looking forward to you through 2024
yeah no so we've been we've been drilling away all summer
in 2023 and we're just starting up a drill program
uh today actually and so again the point of that drilling is to understand
how much lithium is in the subsurface and we are constantly stepping out we
keep finding more and more the deposit gets
bigger and bigger and that's going to be the big catalyst again
it's just like expanding how much lithium we have in the ground
and every drill hole we drill is increasing the amount of lithium that's
in the ground because it gives us another data point
to extrapolate to so that's the big catalyst and then we're
doing some other things like permitting to
make sure the timelines are on track to get a mine into production
we're doing some other engineering things like metallurgy
and that that allows us to have an idea of
what do we need to do to get the lithium out of the rock but i think the big
catalysts here are how much lithium is actually in the
ground and that's what we're drilling for
god yeah that does make sense as you continue to drill for it all right
action do you have a question or two you want to throw in here
yeah so where are you standing right now as far as core samples go
um is there any updates as far as the the things that you guys are looking at
um so we've been releasing drill results every week
for the last uh three months basically and that's going to be the plan
into the future and so as when i say drill results
it it's really we're drilling through a deposit
we we figure out what the width of that drill hole is and the
the concentration of lithium and that gives the better idea of the overall
volume or tonnage that's actually in the ground so
that's we'll continue to do that we'll continue to release
drill results as they're coming in and again that's going to be the big
catalyst for this year and how do you feel about those
i mean i think you know i'm i'm the ceo of this thing and i'm an
exploration geologist and what's been incredible at this
i'm trying to be unbiased here but um the the the continuity of this is
incredible and you can look at this on our
public disclosures every press releases we're releasing
very good widths of very good grades of lithium and it's exactly what we
expected we set high expectations on this
project because like like we were talking about before
you can actually see this stuff from space
and when i say that that's going on to google maps and you can zoom in you can
see how long these lithium deposits are how
wide they are the only unknown was how deep they go and
you know what is what do they do at depth in terms of width so
it's been pretty much what we expected and like i said we
set high expectations uh so it's been it's been great so far
i i have i i i could be happier if we had
if we had the largest lithium deposit in the world i would be happier but if we
are in the top three in north america then i'm also happy
all right that little chuckle you gave me is is like the cue of like
francis is happy because money's gonna start rolling in with everything that's
been going on that's exciting man that's good to hear you guys are
meeting your goals um it's always an unknown until you get
the drilling right i mean it can look all good from the outside but
you don't want to get inside that's that's really what matters and i'm happy
to hear that things are going well yeah exactly
perfect hey austin you want to jump in here get some thoughts some questions in
test and test and miss the pb up here on stage if you need a second no worries
but i do want to get you into the mix here at some point to ask
some thoughts and questions but let's take a look at some of these
other pieces i want to just give the audience a better understanding
of lithium francis so who do you see right now as your main competitors and
what differentiates you from them
sure so patriot battery metals i think is a good thing to look at because
they are in canada as well and northern canada
hard rock lithium and they have a spectacular deposit
so they've come out with a 100 million ton
resource or 109 million tons and that's similar to what we
think we have they've been trading at about 1.2 billion dollar
market cap and that's canadian so call it 900 million
us and and lift has been trading at about 150 million dollar market cap
us so we think that there's going to be a massive
re-rate in the lift stock when we actually prove
what we have in terms of the lithium in the ground or the resource
and then another good one to look at is sigma lithium
and sigma is producing they're listed on the nadstack and they've been trading
for a lot of this year at about a four billion dollar
market cap and the reason that i compare ourselves to sigma it's not
necessarily in terms of the market cap but it's more on the geology
and sigma is a company they have a lithium pegmatite district so
when i say pegmatite these are veins of granite
basically that are cutting across the landscape and that's similar to what we
have at yellow knife and when you compare sigma to yellow
knife it looks like yellow knife or our project lift project has a
probably a similar lithium resource and we're trading at about 150 million
dollar us market cap sigma is trading at about a three to
four billion dollar us market cap and that's kind of the long-term
value proposition is that we think we have the resource
to back that kind of valuation and all we need to do
is prove out the resource get through the permitting process to
get to a mine and then fund that and then and then we're kind of
upwards and that kind of valuation
yeah so the last thing there you said was the perm the permitting
so is it fair to say that it's basically cheating up there in canada
because as long as you're investing money into mineral rights you
um i mean the permitting is more complicated than that
and especially in canada so if you're in a
tier one jurisdiction and when i say tier one
it's it's stable political regime stable permitting situation no issues with
communities when you're in these kind of places it it does take a while
to get a mine permitted and the reason for that is that
canada and other countries like this have very stringent environmental
standards so we have to it's it's a lot of hoops
to jump through i mean we have to do a lot of
studies and just to give an idea of this we're doing environmental
baseline studies this year and when i say that
i'll run you through this it's we're doing water
sampling to understand what the the chemistry of the water is we're
doing lake sediment sampling we're doing uh biological sampling of the fish
and the lake to see what the metal values are and the tissues of the fish
we're doing soil samples we're doing all of these
different studies and this feeds into it gives you an idea of what the
baseline values are for all of these studies in this area
and once we establish those values um it gives it gives a better sense of
you know what's there what we need to do in order to
actually get a mine into production so again it's it's hoops that you need to
jump through but these are the these are the things
that you pay for to be mining in a country like canada
or sweden or finland or places like that and but once you do that how much are
you paying for the mineral rights property
sorry say that say that again so when you after you do all those studies how
much are you actually paying for the mineral rights property
um so we've already paid for it and so we own the property 100 percent
it's just the amount of data that we have to put into these studies
um that governs the costs so essentially you're
there right like you this is the the home stretch before
um you can see profitability either in selling the whole place and saying hey
there's a ton of lithium in here somebody else come out and mine it
um or you decide to expand production and do it all yourself
sure so there's to me there's two ways you make money
um in in in the mining business and it's either you develop a project to
the point where you got you get bought by a bigger company or you
take a project all the way to production and we're we're open to either of those
propositions i think we have the team that can take
this project all the way to production but if someone comes along with an offer
at some point that makes sense then we wouldn't be
you know we're not we're not saying that we're hell bent on making a mine
out of this we could sell it in the next years as well
so where's the risk if you're at this point where you got lithium coming out of
the ground i mean you got the spudges looking good you got these samples you're
just doing the environmental impact like where is the risk for the investor
there's still so you know and and i'll be transparent as possible here there there
are still technical risks there is we're conducting metallurgical
sampling right now and when i say metallurgical sampling
again that's how do we get the lithium out of the rock so we will be releasing
that to the market probably in march of this year or maybe a little bit later
it's a bit delayed so sometime around then march to june
let's say and then at that point you can see
you know that's how do we get the lithium out of the rock the amount of
lithium that we have i think people can look at it from our
public disclosures and you can get an idea of of how much
lithium is in the ground and then the other parts of this is just
it's really just engineering you know what does it cost to bring power
to a mine you know what are the operating costs what are the the
capital costs to get this up into production so
everything's looking pretty good right now i mean we're running these studies
internally and we're just outside a city of 20 000 people
it's pretty easy to conceptualize that you know we can get people there
there's power in the city we can get it to the mine
all this kind of thing and i think the risks
you know it's it's from a narrative standpoint
the biggest risk is do you think that electric vehicles will not play
a role in the future and if you think that then
you know you don't believe in the lithium narrative
but i'm a firm believer that i think we are transitioning
towards electric vehicles and that we will eventually
make this transition to green energy however long that does take
but you know we can see this it's not it's not a fairy tale i mean we're
seeing electric vehicle penetration growing
every year so if you believe that continues
then that is that's the long-term value proposition is that
we need lithium especially in north america
we didn't really talk about this aspect but there is a massive geopolitical
aspect to lithium because i think about 80 percent of the
downstream refining capacities in china so
it's north america has a vested interest in getting
these deposits up and running in north america so that we're not
100 reliant on china so that's that's kind of that's the long-term
proposition really that sounds like a pretty
pretty low risk if you believe in the evey
narrative right now well if you if you're if you're on the roads right now
i guess you can you can really um see the the you know where the
market is going and where the market is headed so yeah
i mean that doesn't seem uh too far fast to say that evey is the future
i think the biggest thing for everybody listening right now
is realizing that commodities markets are very cyclical
and if you want to make money in commodities markets in general
not necessarily listening but it could be gold it could be copper
it's buying at the bottom and just waiting
for the next big run to come and in lithium specifically
we've seen these markets trend from to give an example lithium was trading at
um was trading at about five thousand dollars a ton
and it went to eighty thousand dollars a ton
so these are the kind of returns that you can make just by playing a
commodities market and because lithium is a market that is very under
underdeveloped you know we haven't needed lithium as a
society very much and because we haven't needed it
we're seeing these massive uh this massive volatility in the supply and
demand especially as the demand side keeps
increasing so the biggest thing i think for
people to take away is is that if you want to play this evey narrative
and you want to play in lithium like buy at the bottom of the market
and try and hold on until the next top and that will be
i think a big win for people
Chris back and forth there hey Austin is your mic working now
yes sir i'm good how's it going Francis i appreciate hearing all
i'm excited i'm also a big believer that it just seems to be bottom cycle or
you know maybe the difficulties in timing and
no one's ever going to do it right but uh you know you can
pretty much just do your best to slowly lever into
you know a commodities market down cycle and then
ride the wave in the upcycle so we talked a little bit about market cap
um of some of the kind of competitors in the space that you believe you guys
are pretty uh clean comparison to um and i
heard that uh you know from the one specifically
talked about three four billion dollar market cap again i know that you can't
say with any kind of certainty but like let's speculate here
should all go well and all things you know rise to the anticipation that you
that everyone in the project has i mean is it realistic to say that
you know you guys could be a three to four billion dollar market cap company you
know you know mid mid boom cycle with all of
you know the assay stuff coming out well all the mineral deposit stuffs like we're
good good good and we're going to get to production by the
time we get there do you think that it's possible to see
you know evaluation in that range
so i'll put it like this like yes i do and the reason i think that is that i
think these commodity markets are going to swing
in a massive way so what we need to do right now
is just show how much lithium we have in the ground
how much it's going to cost to get out come up with a definitive mine plan
and when you see lithium prices swing up
to where they have been let's call it 12 months ago i think yeah i think we
could definitely get a three or four billion dollar market cap
that's fantastic i mean i i would tend to agree i just that's why i wanted to
you know the other question is really like what
what kind of time horizon does that look like a little like let's say you guys
get through everything you're doing right now
what kind of time horizon with the i guess what would be the time horizon of
getting to that decision point of like okay are we selling the project
or are we moving to production
so in terms of that decision i think it's really market dependent
and you know we let's say right now we would never sell the project
because we think we have a world-class asset
so if if if we've added enough value and it coincides with the right timing in
the market that's something that we could potentially
look at an offer for but if those timings don't add up
and we think oh we've got a world-class asset we're not going to sell it at
the bottom of the market then we'll just keep we'll just keep adding
value and if that value addition coincides with
bringing it into production then we're totally fine with that
so you have to think about this in terms of the timing
and we will try and add as much value as we can
and make as much value as for shareholders as possible
awesome yeah that's interesting to me i always kind of wondered like what
how you guys manage those expectations in terms of time
and making those decisions so i think that's really interesting
so another question i kind of add is we talked a little bit about demand
related to kind of the adoption of electric vehicles and all that stuff i
mean what other areas are we already using
lithium that people might not be realizing or
thinking about your average consumer maybe doesn't you know put the pieces
together and do you think that there are other
kind of segments of demand that are going to continue to grow alongside the EV
yeah i mean the traditional markets for lithium have been
ceramics glass uh pigments of of chemicals and things like that so
those are small markets and they've been there for 50 years
so why we've seen lithium just you know grow multiples in terms of
demand is because of batteries because it offers the best storage capacity for
batteries so lithium demand is really going to be
driven by batteries and it could be electric vehicles but
it's also storage for for bigger scale
electricity storage and like i was saying before i think
hawaii's phased off some coal power and they're storing renewables based on
lithium batteries so i think that's that's the thing you know we may see
um additional uh demand from even home uh scale grid storage so i know like
old batteries from electric vehicles they're not good for
driving cars but the energy uh storage and and um how much
energy they can output is is good for a house so you know you can be looking at
those kind of demand scenarios for for lithium as well
but again it will be driven by electrical storage
awesome so pretty much anything battery-dependent or is large battery
exactly all right cool thanks yeah actually
so francis you're obviously the geologist nerd
uh in this whole thing are you looking at anything other than lithium
um or were you looking at anything other than lithium
um before you got this thing kicked off because i agree with you as far as the
battery um narrative um at least for the next
50 to 75 years lithium is going to be king and if you want to make money right
now this is the place to be but um there are other technologies out there
that uses other types of commodities that you know
are not being explored yet and they're going to take a long time to be
profitable um i mean the money maker is absolutely
lithium um but before you got into this mine here
were you looking at other options
yeah sure i mean you know as a geologist i'm always looking for
other commodities and for a while i was looking at nickel
but the nickel prices have been destroyed in last year and
and one of the reasons for that is that the
technology around uh processing nickel laterites
and when i say nickel there's two sources of nickel
nickel laterite is these um deposits
basically dirt in in tropical areas that have a concentration of lithium in them
because the rain or water has weathered everything else away
and those are traditionally difficult to process
but the technology has changed and it's made them easier to process
and so mining nickel out of the middle of the earth
right now has become less attractive just because you have all this dirt
on surface that you can get nickel out of
so nickel has been less attractive um i think copper is one you know if you
believe in this free and energy transition
how do we get electricity around the world it's with copper
and i think if we want to actually execute on this
then copper is going to be massive and so i think you know these metals
that are going to contribute to this green energy transition
this is really what's interesting and you know things like let's say you
look at the use case zinc is is a lot of time for galvanizing
uh steel galvanizing you know different things and in order to
have a massive zinc demand you need a massive
build out in real estate or something like that so
you know it's just where do you see the future
uh of of humanity going and what are the commodities that we need
in order to make that happen so i think the battery metals are big
lithium copper nickel things like that are going to be in high demand
man that's exactly what i wanted to hear essentially
you are the guy who's been looking around going all right what are we gonna mine
for and you're just trying to seize the best
possible opportunity as far as what's going to have the greatest yield
i mean at least in the short term right
no exactly and you know i think lithium is going to be
one of the best performing commodities in the next five to ten years
and then a decade out it's very hard to see
what's going to happen and with any battery you know lead
uh lead batteries were a massive thing for 20 years
and then lithium upended that and now lithium ion batteries are the thing
and so what happens in another 20 years i'm not really sure
but for the next for the foreseeable future right now
with no technological changes lithium is going to be driving battery technology
and the way we're thinking about this is that
we need to take advantage of this while lithium is in favor and this is what we
need we need to get a product to market because
in 20 years it might not be in demand and so
that is our strategy is to move these projects as quickly as we can
and get them offloaded either into the market or
into a larger mining company that's actually going to mine it
i love it yeah i mean you're you're you're speaking my language here like
you're literally just trying to seize the opportunity
before it goes away and i mean to your point i mean 20 years
is just a blip on the radar for technology i mean we think oh you know
stuff is coming out so rapid no it takes a while for people to
change the way that they do things the way that they manufacture
the way that they implement new technologies even in batteries so
yeah i mean we definitely have a little bit of time still with lithium like i
said i think that there's um other uh you know metals out there i
think niobium is one of them but man like it's not gonna happen overnight
lithium still has a lot of the market share and it's going to
continue to have the market share for a long time
long enough for you to get this thing off the ground up and running and make
that's the thing yeah so lithium i think has a 10-year
window niobium is an interesting one um where there's three producing niobium
mines in the world and i think 90 is controlled by brazil
so you know these niche markets you need to see where the demand is coming from
that's where lithium was about 10 to 15 years ago and then we
had this new demand coming out of nowhere so
you know for any of these commodities if you see a demand case coming out of
them in the future yeah it could be a place to be in
but we are at the very beginning of this lithium
you know we're it's the lithium super cycle you know we just started on this
thing and this is going to go for at least
10 years there's going to be massive swings there's going to be massive
volatility and that's what you need to play
you have to play the down cycles and be buying then
and wait for the next up cycle
yeah the cool thing is that like the industry changes but the whole
mining narrative doesn't i mean even in web 3 and i'll say this because
we got wolf web 3 hosting us i mean you're talking about bitcoin
like i don't care if the price of bitcoin is super super high super super
low if i'm in the mining game because ultimately i'm getting everything out of
discount so everything translates the same exact way when it comes to real world
mining it's it's a matter of getting in while the
you know it's cheap to mine while people aren't really paying attention too
much to it they're putting setting it to the side
so that when that bull market comes along and everybody's like we need
lithium we need this it looks like well we need bitcoin we don't have enough
well guess that they turn to the people who are mining the people who are
on the ground actually extracting value um you know um
and that's that's the biggest play to win in my mind
i mean so we have this saying in the mining business that
if you can't grow it you have to mine it and
you know that could be there's there's another way to think about this it's
you know if if the price of water is low if the price of air
is low there's going to be more people that need to breathe air
and you know just like other commodities there's going to be more
people that need cell phones at some point and and the only way
or batteries you know so the only way that you build these things is with
these raw commodities the demand is always going to be there
if the population of the earth is growing we're always going to need these
things so the thing is is that you play
the cycles you play you buy in the bottom
and you wait for the next cycle and sell at the top
and that is it's a it's a that's how you make money you'd be a contrarian
you don't follow the narratives you buy at the bottom you sell at the top
hey rob i think we got you up on stage now we've got another
eight or so minutes up here curious if you had any thoughts on the topic or
questions you want to throw into the mix
and he said his spaces wasn't working great so i think
yeah and i mean i do i've got lots of questions
the first though is obviously you're talking about
i hope i missed the whole front of it so apologies
um if you've already gone through this but um
there is quite a lot of concern about the bottle necking in so you're saying
that most of the which is which is accurate most of the
lithium mined will go to batteries by the end of the decade i think you
are right in the first five years your supply inbound into us your supply of
lithium into supply chains to build batteries will be i don't think they'll
be able to produce enough of it you run into oversupply issues at the
end of the decade because unfortunately fortunately for china but
unfortunately for us as i'm sure you know most of the
batteries in the world are um kind of formed for another way of
putting it for simple to speak in in china itself something
like i can't remember the stat but it's between 60 and 70 percent
and so as we move supply chains away from that
there's going to be bottlenecks where you run into oversupply issues
i think have you thought about that and in terms of
what that means for you you know have you thought about the
cost of that so essentially if you run into oversupply and that's the
oversupply lasts for a bit like the chip oversupply
under supply but now running into chip oversupply
in technology today there's going to be like a four or five year window where
there's too much going have you worked out how quickly it takes you to return
any sort of exploration capital or depending on your business model
so that you're making money before potential oversupply enters the market
for a short period i don't think it'll be for very long but unfortunately
in the game of mining and energy you know those four or five year periods
kills about 50 or 60 percent of the market sometimes more
so have you thought about that and do you have an opinion on that
sure so i agree with you those swings are what kill a lot of small
projects and in the mining business like we see
these swings in in commodity prices all the time i mean the cycles could be
two years three years four years five years and the way that you mitigate
those kind of issues is that you have a long
mine life so and this is what major mining companies look for they look for
a 20-year mine life that it doesn't matter if the commodities
swing and what you look for is a deposit
that is going to make money in all markets and so let's say
like right now we think you know our well let's say our
industry standard for uh spodumene prices are between six and
eight hundred dollars us a ton and right now spodumene's trading at a
thousand dollars a ton so no one no one's going to build new
mines in this this environment but most people are
projecting two thousand dollars a ton for long-term prices
and if you have a a two-year mine life a three-year mine life a five-year mine
life it doesn't make sense because you could
get just completely destroyed by these cycles
but if you have a 20 or 30-year mine life and you're playing these cycles and
you think your long-term average price is going to be two thousand a ton
you're trading for 800 a ton let's just say a thousand a ton for easy
numbers and you're producing 500,000 tons a year
so say 500,000 tons a year and you're making a thousand dollars a
ton that's 500 million dollars a year in free cash flow
on an average over a 20-year period so again the way to play this is you
have a long mine life and you play the cycles
you've paid off your capex in terms of building the mine
and once you've actually paid that off then you know the the cycles don't matter
as much so so on that i mean do you have a
rough idea how long it will take you to cover your capex obviously you've got
opex on that so it's not completely free cash flow but it's near
near as down i don't know what your operating cost per ton is for
extraction but but i say you're right at 500
what did you say 600 a ton i know that lithium's on market now at five
five or something like that five six well i think it might be six thousand
dollars a ton but that's fully refined process put into a cart right so
the concern you've got is how long does it take for you to
pay off your capex in that scenario um are you can you get to capex i do
generally believe you're going to run into over supply by the end of the
decade just because um the demand increases that now don't
make sense for the supply chain and the supply chain takes at least three
times longer than the consumer takes to adopt
to speed up even with good capital and so
that's say that takes you know consumer yeah exactly so i think
whatever you know it depends
sorry there might have been a little bit of overlap there as you were ending
Rob i can't hear anyone yeah i can't hear Francis either he's
had a little bit of connection issues kind of throughout the space
uh i think he thought you were done speaking and kind of started to come in
but Francis if you're good to go now uh you can
jump in and unmute and by the way we're just yeah go for
Francis yeah no i'm here um so just just in terms of the the
payback period it really depends on how big
the mine is that you're envisioning and because we're
early on in this process we're still defining how big the lithium resources
are we don't have a mine plan yet but in general
it's let's say it's if you have a big mine
you you pay it back in two years and you have a
at least 20 year mine life then it's it's 20 year optionality
basically or call it 18 year optionality and that's what big mining
companies look for people aren't really looking for paying
back in two years and having a five-year mine
life that doesn't make sense because it's a
it's a three-year option on commodity prices which isn't that attractive
so it's those long-term options on commodity prices that people
really look for and call it about two years to pay off a big mine
perfect hey guys we are at the top of the hour here rob i appreciate you
making the time and coming on for these the last 10
austin i wanted to bring it back to you once more uh again
people can go ahead and find a lot of information on this stock
in the link that i pinned up top uh that's going to have a bunch of
details they can go and just look up the ticker directly
it is l i f t uh actually francis do you want to tell
people real quick where they can trade this
sure so we're traded on the
yeah unfortunately unfortunately he's still breaking up really bad
yeah unfortunately i don't know y'all were able to hear him there
uh sorry about that yeah yeah unfortunately francis you're
breaking up a ton so let's see if we can get any any final remarks and while
sure yeah i mean um the value proposition here is that we think we
have one of the largest lithium deposits in north america we are
close to infrastructure so the we have the ability to get it to market
and i think the big thing here is that we are nearing a low
in the lithium market and this is the thing that i keep hammering is that
buying at the bottom investing in solid assets that have a very good
chance of getting into production this is the
way that you make money and you want an example of this look at
pilbara minerals that went from a one cent stock to a four
dollar stock in australia and that's a great way you know
look at that chart you know we think we have that ability
perfect thank you francis austin did you want to throw in any
final comments on this one no i was actually wondering about some of
things rob asked by those are great questions so thanks for bringing those up
because it's on the back of my mind i could have never
put those two words quite as poignantly but
thank you for doing that i'd say that's i'm good man
perfect all right well thank you so much francis rob action
got a fun little lithium crew going up here and of course awesome for hopping
on hope everybody enjoyed this morning with us took some
good takeaways and again it's lift on the canadian exchange you
can find out a lot more information via the post that i pinned in the top of the
space if you have any questions you could DM myself or you could just go
ahead and DM francis directly and we'll make sure that gets
taken care of for you that's going to do it for our friday
morning spaces thank you everyone that tuned on i'll be back on spaces at
3 p.m eastern for one more hour today talking about the stock market and our
portfolios thanks again everybody enjoy the rest of your friday morning