Good morning. Good morning, everybody Frank and see you in the crowd Shawn. Welcome to the stage. What are you looking at this morning?
Morning, I will pay doing good weekend. Oh, yeah, pretty good. Pretty solid. How about yourself?
Yeah, pretty good. Had some family come over from Spain. So it's been a bit hectic
I'm sure you can imagine but um, they're really enjoyable
Yeah, that is great to hear
So coming out of that. Oh, yeah
Yeah, I've got a few things I'm watching this week or this today, I guess
Obviously neo is a bit more of a kind of high-risk play for me
But neo double bottom looks kind of on the cards at the moment that the 480 level
Lots going on with the company and probably treating is a bit more the swing trade. I think
My opinion but yeah near is when I'm watching and I know another two percent
Well, probably people don't trade too much and that's S. O. N. O
Sonos and it is retesting with the 18 month trend line, which is quite appealing to me
I like I'm breaking up Twitter primarily. So that's what I kind of look for when I'm looking for a move and
basically, if I'm looking for moves to 2150 from kind of current levels about kind of where we are now because in
1925 ish I don't have my computer in front of me with a fight but
Yeah, so no, there's another one
AMD obviously every weekend we had some news
I am actually currently in a kind of a swing trade for this one's a bit of a shame with the news
But just looking into the news is not too bad
I don't think so I think looking for the 172 to 173 to hold if not gonna move back down to kind of 163
Is of the cards very much so so I'm kind of looking for that and I'll probably just add the position at that point
There's not a lot of people's position in my portfolio
Another breakout trade on this one was similar to Sonos kind of
Retesting the levels of one and two one of one that kind of area and I'm kind of aiming
Bold here, but I kept it at 176 six of it
I think it's one thing to see if the memory and there's a gap feel a little bit further up and that's kind of where
I'm looking for so a bit of a home run up here a bit more of a long-term one
Yeah, let me speak and yeah, happy trading and I'm looking forward to hearing what the other side
Perfect good to have you on Sean. Thank you
Evan you want to roll through some of the news from the weekend
Interesting night of sleep for me last night kept me up all night pretty much with a little sick
But so I might be a little under the weather. Did you do this before going to sleep?
No, I just was sneezing and just all night and it was just a rough night
Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun announced that he's stepping down at the end of the year, which was the big news from the morning
That stock was up about 4% in pre-market trading
On that restructuring it's up more than 4% now. So it was interesting. There's a couple Apple stories this weekend
They're gonna be launching the vision Pro in mainland China
By the end of this year they expect that this iOS at least internally they expect iOS 18
Which would be the next operating system update for the iPhone to be a very big one
Apparently as big as when the iPhone launched, but I mean they've said that type of language before but we'll see that was talked about by
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman over the weekend China introduced new guidelines that will
Mean chips from Intel and AMD will be phased out of government PCs and servers
I could cause some volatility there. They're also trying to phase out Microsoft chips as well
Will Microsoft's operating system? Sorry
We do have a couple things to watch today. Nothing too much on the catalyst
Watch actually, honestly, nothing to even really talk about there
And yeah, there was a bunch of commentary from the Fed presidents now that we're past the FMC meeting
We did have ghouls be saying that the three rate cuts was what in line with what he was expecting
Bostic was in a different area saying that he now projects the Fed will only cut
Rates by one time this year and he thinks it'll be later in the year then was previously expected. So
expect to watch and hear a lot of Fed commentary coming out this week and today and everything like that and
Yeah, there's a couple stories. We're not busy so we can in the world, but there was a couple things going on a couple analyst
Price target changes here and there like Tesla got a downgrade today
From mazuho, maybe causing some volatility there. Disney got an upgrade. There was a few other like that
But yeah, that's kind of what I'm watching this this area for me
The big story was a lucid signs deal to raise 1 billion dollars from Saudi PIFs affiliate
But the big story for me was Dave Calhoun Boeing CEO enough that he's stepping down causing the stock to go up about 4%
We'll see that one goes in the future
Perfect, thank you Evan. All right great Pam up here this morning. Good morning Craig. What's on the watch list?
What's going on what's going on so right off the back
Nothing in terms of swing trading just gonna be taking some scalps throughout the day
First on my list mRNA getting them had a decent gap up pre-market now back down to about that 106 level
I'm sitting above the green to red spot. I want to see that spot hold ideally
I want to see those highs get taken out of this range over about let's say 106 35
Next name on my list crowd CR WD
Want to see something similar you guys can see cancel out that big red day and
Doesn't look too bad. You want to see a break over? Let's call it the
332 area another name I'm looking at arm pre-market seeing a lot of movement gonna be watching the opening range
Break on that another name. I'm watching is alcoa. That's a a
It has been kind of in a range
But if you do look at the breakout spotted at like let's say thirty dollars and seventy nine cents
We are holding that pulling the 9em a tight
We got a couple days into it
So I really want to see the highs of day get taken out and as you can see pre-market
We're kind of sitting in that area. I will be keeping D whack on the list just for the news today
It looks like the other ticker it will be switching to is the JT
so keep an eye on that one for today, and then I
Would like to see how AMD reacts we have AMD with some weakness, and I think if the market turns out to
Be a little bit choppy today
I think either we could find some of some further weakness or we got to see how we react to let's let's call it
The 172 area we found we were able to find support there months back
And I want to see if it continues there, so let you guys know in any entries and keep you posted
Good morning. JJ. What's going on? What are we looking at here going into the open? Hey, how you guys doing?
Can you guys hear me? Hopefully this microphone doesn't give me trouble. Yes. Hope you guys had a good weekend. Yeah, we're looking for
Inventory correction a little higher in the ES inventory is about 70% short going into the open
shorts are trapped under 52 71 so if we take out that overnight low look for bids down there and
If the shorts are desperate enough because tomorrow is month and ladies and gentlemen
So right you got to pay the you got to pay the bar tab month ends coming quarter-end
There's a lot of short players in this market. Let's see how desperate they are this morning
we're gonna find the bin and off the open and
If it holds the overnight below and it starts to rotate if this market can't get under 52 77
In our th and stay there look for rotation up to 52 83
We're putting on a gap down so there is trapped longs above us. There's trapped shorts below
So I'm looking for trade between 73 and 88 kind of a maybe we can catch some nice rotations and play ping-pong
With the wholesalers. That's what I'm looking at for today. Just
Looking for some liquidation, but there you got to remember that, you know after that Fed Day
We've got a ton of trap shorts and tomorrow is month end. So
You know, there should be some be interesting to find the bid early in the morning and that's what I'm looking at and then I'll
Then what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna listen to you guys and you know
You guys tell me what stocks you're looking at and then I'll start tearing those apart
It's a short week, so we should have some nice short covering
Sounds good. Thank you JJ. And there we go. We got the open as well as
You were talking right there. Take a looking at the indexes real quick spy is down point two eight percent. It is trading at five
nineteen point seven three and let's take a look at QQQ
To I believe it's the downside. Okay, my stuff is taking a second to load here
Sorry, if I'm a little slow today, it is the downside is down point seven percent Q's fall in here
Good morning. What's going on? What are you watching this morning? Hey, good morning, everybody. Hope everyone had a great weekend
Yeah, so some interesting news out of China heard from a couple of speakers just then Evan gave us the news headline on that
There with AMD and Intel for sure
I'm watching RTY, which is the futures for IWM. So either one of those
It was pretty strong in the pre-market trading over the weekend as well Globex and strong open on that
So may look for a trade over there on in QQQQ
We were pulling back into some levels. I've got I do have a
If not just a little bit lower
So I'm gonna be patient this morning kind of see what what presents itself
It looks like we're kind of just solely fading back coming back to back test a little bit
So might be a short the popped tide of environment for me, but let the price action dictate that
Sounds good. I see we got Mikey jumping up morning shark. What's going on?
What are you looking at world of futures? Good morning? How you doing?
Pretty solid pretty solid good. Yeah. Yeah. Oh looks like apples not seeing any quarter again
Heading down a little lower. So I will be watching the weakness in that name apples down about a little over two dollars here
JJ, you know, I think usually Mondays we kind of see a two-way tape back and forth action more of a range type of day
So I'll be watching for that. I was looking at some downside on yes
When I was doing my daily plan overnight when we were trading below that
Basically the figure at the 5,300
And the next key level I'm watching underneath is 52 70 under that we probably could sell down another 20 points
We did create a lot of thin structure through that FOMC pump. So it wouldn't really be too hard to chew through it
However, I don't think today is the day that we're gonna do it more likely that we'd see
Like I said before to a tape kind of road. I saw 175 call
Sorry, and no, it's okay. And and then that's it
So I'm gonna take it pretty patient here to see what happens here in the morning
I really wouldn't even be surprised if we do fill the gap and then kind of just chop around after we fill it
Okay, sounds good looking at the gap morning Mikey Tesla 175 calls good morning brother
Yeah, we're also watching BA, you know had that PR too that has some relative strength as well, so
Pulling up a few charts real quick
Good morning cam. How's it going?
Good morning. I'm watching arm today. It's getting a nice move up
Still liking that I'm long that stock
I don't have any options on it but have been kind of like, you know didn't know if it would get sold off once they
Had their lockup expire, but it's held in there and then
Do have some options on coin. So seeing how that fares today and
CART that's been a nice little stealth mover
That kind of has been under the radar. So that's what I'm looking at in
Sounds good. I've been keeping my eyes on cart as well. That was been performing pretty nicely this year
Carts up 60. Yeah, I know that remember I I that is when I was talking about for a while probably since January
I've been long night. And yeah, that's been a nice little 117 call
Adobe sorry Adobe 515 call
Yeah, come back down a little bit members at 6
Got it. Yeah, that's a crazy chart there on kart Kim. I wish I bought into that
That's kind of a buy what you use one where I love using Instacart. And so maybe I should have believed in it a little bit more
Yeah, the world had me down on delivery apps
Yeah, but you know, that's not like some of the other ones like uber and dash where they all have kind of competing against each other
I mean, I don't really know. I mean, I'm sure they have competition
Amazon but your Amazon isn't going into every grocery store just whole foods. I think so
Okay, this is for large accounts only SMC I 1050 call
Some CI going for a thousand 992
Morning Frank, what's going on morning?
How you doing weekend weekend, you know, I you know, I'm watching actually watching Boeing here
You know, that's that's Boeing finally getting a pop floss some news
Post positive thing that's happened in about three months Boeing is the chairman's retiring
You know little weakness here in the market looking I'm gonna wait and see where a queue gets a bit here
I mean, I think they were you might have found it. So
It's been a kind of a quiet week. Is he speaking?
I'm gonna drop down and come back then Chinese
The Chinese no longer with the you know gonna be
If so, you know, I don't know I think the markets, you know today
I think Sharkey was right today. We're gonna see like a little bit both ways chop the action till they find their legs
So, let's see what's happening here, I'm still having a good morning
Just goes down on the five percent. Oh
That's crazy, yeah fisker trading at eight cents
This we were by the way a year ago today you traded at five dollars and eighty cents
Praise at eight cents today
Market cap of forty nine million
Remember the stock the high the peak was twenty eight dollars and fifty cents. Hey guys on fisker was that
Did they do a convertible on that? It looks like they did a death spiral on that
No, they declared that was a bankruptcy or something. They got some bankruptcy attorneys involved. Oh, yeah, but you got a parliament stock, right?
Mean the float look at the foot of that thing compared to the float when it started
I'm sure it's like ten times the size from dilution
Tesla or 175 calls are almost in the money
Looks like energy is having a good day. XLE is up over a dollar
Oils up 1% the CL contract small caps
Damn those contracts are expensive on SMC. I
Also, the news today on fisker was that they were talking they had to deal someone mentioned that they had a deal
They were trying to save the company
By talking with a large automaker and it fell through
Divergence and SMP and small caps versus tech right now
Mikey that last candle was like a little God candle right there on Tesla. That's five minute kid on the open
The way Mikey broke in I knew that chart was flying
You had to get it over shark. It's like it's had to come in on that the ELH the ELH hundred-dollar call
All right, let's do it Oh
Speaking Wolfie's language, let's do it
Full Celsius to 100 on a Monday. How was it? I was mentioning neo. That's an interesting chart. I
Haven't looked at the chart in a while, but my girlfriend was sending me neo car links
Was like, oh these look kind of nice
Yeah, I see that there was news around Lucid they're raising money billion dollars from a Saudi PIF affiliate
Was coming back to test a pretty interesting level here. Yeah, I got it. I got more 30 area
We'll pull back on Tesla right there Apple still giving it up under 170
Just like it's been a little since apples been down here I
Like around 381. Sorry wolfy 381 ish
Sharky on in queue. It's gonna be
Retrace, it's also there was a previous high there that we could come back to us pretty nice area from last Monday
And you start to get into the FOMC reaction area
So I think that's gonna be a good spot if we if we do continue down here below 430 ish
Good hold here though, or at least get up some kind of relief balance first
Hey, good morning everyone dollar calls
Yeah, what's up, Paul? Good morning, everyone
Are you doing good? Good. How's everyone doing here? Happy Monday. We're gonna make some money
So, yes, sir already there
Nice great job, Mikey. I see the option Shane for reddit has opened up RDD T
So you can buy puts you can buy puts for 25 days out
$25 puts 25 days out for 15 cents right now
That's the lowest it goes and the shortest date it goes so who's buying puts on reddit
I've not seen too many people calling for those just yet
But I did see a good post from a hedge I breaking down why it's not gonna be a good stock. Yeah, I
Mean fundamentally, it's a kind of a broken company. It's it's never gonna make money. It's never gonna make a profit
They said that they made a profit last half of the year before they went public
Interesting, so we'll see
Which I don't know. I don't know how much I don't know
Believe through this we'll see the numbers. Yeah. Yeah, I was looking at some financials and they just I
don't know and and they sort of they they survive off of like a an army of
free labor like 40,000 moderators like
You know if they had to pay any of those people any amount of compensation that they would they wouldn't be able to handle it
The company would die instantly
Pretty interesting, but looks like a lot of people made some money though
Sam Altman open AI guy here. He had a good amount of open AI. Sorry of reddit stock
Funnel like that I'm cutting do you act
250 a contract right there
Or no, never mind. You call out the 1050. Yes, sir, but it is over a thousand. Oh
My god, yeah, this is a ripper. Yes
It's up that's a ripper 15-minute candle on SMTI
Start our second candle here. Oh, he took a hard right turn. Am I really about to say this?
What are we doing here and it brewing Mikey
On the cliff here on the cliffs
So this this 15-minute candle on SMTI was an increase of 4% in the stock price
So 40 bucks. Yeah, pretty great
Point calls 300 strike or monthly I was just about to mention the crypto tickers
Lot of green in that sector of my watch list. Yeah, bro
This is not what I was doing and I over just to let you know, this is for large accounts only
I forgot to mention I am watching Adobe. They have a summit that begins today, I believe
Me and Mike you've talked about that a couple times over the last week. Don't forget it. Oh, it's no winter
Adobe yes, the summer at I was gonna say don't forget about Adobe
All right, next what we're gonna do this is gonna sound fucked up, but it is what it is AMD 180 call
975 call and BDA Microsoft not looking too good
It looks pretty good right there like that
AMD's been kind of broken to me
She said 90% on the sorry 82
But yeah, it's still like what $1,000 a con
So the Adobe Summit pre-conference it has listed us a day
Start of it is actually tomorrow. It's in Las Vegas and online according to the website. They have a
Shaquille O'Neal as a speaker
Nice I cut the Celsius by the way. I don't know if you're still holding nice little bounce back here
Let's see if they can accept over 18
20 minutes in just got some short covering at 77 there's stuff running that
5271 level where the shorts are trapped from the Fed Day before month end
Yes, it's like stuck in the mud but it's holding up it was holding up better than in queue on those cells
I think it's because the energy
Yes has a beautiful short precision under 71
Remember tomorrow is month end
I'd like to see that overnight. We'll get taken out though. See what's working other days
Well because I'm talking about a stock futures contract and it's t plus 2 till month end
Thursday's market maker month and wholesalers have to provide liquidity to us
So they mark their markets to month end but for retail funds stuff like that tomorrow is effectively month end
Which is all changing again in a couple of months
I think end of May or something to t plus 1
I'm a clearing guy. So I was that was raised in the in the source of the industry. So clearing is my thing
Plumbing man in the markets and in plumbing, you know a flush is better than a full house
There's a slight activity
Good reminder good Friday. We do have a market closure this Friday
On the 29th, all right. Well, fuck it. I'm gonna say this
GME GME $20 call April 5th
Coin earnings this week my coin. Yes tomorrow coin 275 call sorry 280 call
Okay, next up CVNA hundred dollar call vamos long arm 141
Don't forget about a hundred and twenty dollar call swing for CVNA
Yeah getting a kind of a daily double top on carvana could be interesting to see that break out over this
9070 level. Oh, it's gonna break out hard dang
Anything's we wrap on ES. No, that was my big news
Yeah, carvana is starting to break out here that's pretty interesting Mikey
Yeah, we've had call swings in carvana since she was that like, I don't know for you
Wow, that's oh I remember that because I actually I actually bought the commons when you called that out Mikey was that 39
That was a fun one, yes, ma'am it right now, but
Sorry, I just said MSTR for a second
Mmm nice and this trading at exactly a dollar
All these fun round numbers
Craig what arm called? Did you call out there? I?
They are about I'm adding to CLH to the $100 call
Nice card, oh you come back in adding on this
I'm not coming back in now. I was always in and I'm just adding. Yeah, I
Cut when it broke view up and closed under view up
Watching Amazon daily 9 EMA
Double reaction here on the daily chart testing Friday's highs right here trying to break out a little bit if we get over that
I'll look to go long Amazon. Maybe today's arm breaks
147 24 she's finally ready and she will go to the
7-mark whatever that high was when earnings came
See what else interesting I see that sweep that you posted shark the calls on arm at 152 50
Yeah at the daily chart, too actually looks great
I posted about I think two weeks ago
And actually I forgot to look at what it looks like right now, but the daily set up on arm is really nice
Nice oh and yeah, I've been meaning to mention this if you're in the audience
I am doing first of this year actually nice little giveaway
I'm currently sitting in a beautiful very comfortable autonomous AI chair. I love it
I hate when I travel and I don't have this thing saves my back
And I'm giving away the exact same one same color same thing
I put a post in the top of the space all the rules are in the post
You got to put a picture of whatever your current setup is underneath
And you can be entered to win. I'm gonna give it away next Monday or
Yeah, next Monday, so check it out. It's in the top of the space and hopefully win. It's a $500 chair
Don't forget about $200 call swings for April 19th as well
TSM 145 TSM still been going crazy. She's about to
MST are just ripping. Yes, sir
Dude, my crypto has been ripping
That's what I'm talking about. It's a lot of boys now. It's up
Yeah, you got all those silly the silly billy coins
I bought it. I bought another one last night
Just some very silly billy coin and I made like 10% overnight like
All right. Oh, yeah, that's some five guys money right there
Dude, I've been holding this other one randomly and it went up. I checked it
It went up like 80% over the weekend. I just did been holding it for like, I don't know like a year
That's crazy. Yeah, I mean, it's the liquidities there now. So it's almost like throw a dart
Why not if you if you have that?
You know if you're it's speculation and if you've got like a little bit of cash sitting around like
Why why not just throw a dart at some of these silly these uh, you know crazy coins that are popping up
It's bad, it's probably better than throwing a thrown it at some
Probably a better investment
So an SMC I just saw 910 put come through for this week for 155,000
We should be getting new home sales data in three minutes really shouldn't impact much besides, you know, maybe some of housing stocks and other very specifically
You know related stocks, but watch out for that at 10 a.m
Was in a video doing beautiful
Nvidia new high a day. Yay
Wow, I miss TR good Lord. Yes, sir
Those large accounts are printing
Coin you high a day for those who took the 280s
We're coming into the 15-minute opening range about to be the 30 here from the eyes
Yeah, wait in the mark my words here in just a minute we are coming basically on cues coming into the
pre-market lows from Friday
So I agree that a lot of times new home sales that it doesn't really do much but but you know
there is a chance that it could
Inject some pretty crazy volatility if it's a big if it's a big swing one way or the other
So just just be cautious. It should be it should be a lower impact event though
But yeah, we've got a minute left until that
Never underestimate the power of a good news release right before month end
Get the Dallas Fed manufacturing at 1030 as well this morning and Fed cook on the docket at 1030
You know, I haven't seen this type of thing too often
Came out today and said that he said that they're at Boeing's largest customer and that he welcomed the restructuring changes at the company
Feeling that it was needed. I don't see too many times a car like a third party coming in
Saying yeah great changes to firing your CEO with me
Now it wasn't directly about the CEO is about everything in general, but it's an interesting one. I
Right Ryan, there's a pretty big outfit over in Europe
It's I hate to do this, but it's kind of like spirit because of the way they're set up very cheap flights country to country
Which would be like state-to-state in the US but a very very popular airline over in Europe
I've got a shoot. Enjoy the day trader. See you later. Oh
Here goes Amazon over Friday's high like I said, I was watching that while ago nice candle here
Got some overhead resistance. We got a watch but
I like the look of the chart, especially the four-hour and the daily
You do have new home sales is a mess, but only by a few thousand so
Didn't seem like the market reaction of that's very
Kim you might need to leave and rejoin
Mara is pushing up higher Bitcoin's moving
Bitcoin over 68k, I believe
All caps are hanging in there nicely this morning still
Yeah, the breath on small caps is three to one
Dow Jones the weakest market
Nicey to explain what that means for people shark when you say the breath and small caps is 31
It's three to one positive. It means
You know, it's like a basic ratio, but it's just how strong the market yeah
It's buying volume. It's three times more buying volume than selling volume
And they always they always run micro caps and mid caps small caps before month end so portfolio managers look good
Take a look at the under $10 range. You'll see stuff up 80 hundred percent today. It's all window dressing
Nobody wants a bad quarter
But you know what the Rolling Stone song
That's why every fund manager has a stable of really cheap stocks that they can mark up
To help offset what your portfolio looks like
The reason I know this is because we used to sell them
Hello why Lily $800 a call
Yes holding an accepting so far the 30-minute candle opened over this 52 78
And quarter, so let's see if this holds I think we could probably rotate back up to 52 90 maybe 89
The one problem I have though with that idea is that NQ is still trapped in the range
I mean, obviously so is yes more or less, but
We do the upper range here on then Q
Some CI new higher day AMD new higher day for the top 180s
That's one AVG all this is extremely high risk I'm doing a BGO 1450 call
Shouldn't say AMD trying to close them in that closer to the money Mike
I just got in it, but I didn't call it out just because I'm not as brave as you with these high-risk ones
Little closer to the money
Man should have called out those calls fucking do it
Sorry, I'm a little quieter this morning. My Wi-Fi is not working right now. So I'm dual
That's the problem you're using Xfinity
Problem is is that so many of these places?
You know, they're essentially monopolies you can't
But like, you know where I live I can really only get Xfinity
It's it's like they agree to stay out of each other's turf like
Like like the mafia or something like that. It's these these companies. They're
Like that one very well put very well foot
Yeah, I think I think the market's gonna keep heading up here
we're hitting a little bit of a dip like a little little bit of a speed bump right now, but
You look like AMD is still moving up
Spies about to break. It's a 15-minute orb high again
It did dip it did pop over it for a little bit, but I think it's moving back up in video, too
Yeah, I mean MSTR looks strong
You read it read it is actually looking kind of interesting to the upside it's kind of funny
I'm a little surprised to see the bone pullback
I do want a little bit of shares
So maybe I'm just biased in the favor, but I would have thought that this would have been some big news
Yeah, we'll see maybe ends up there this is interesting that reddit's option chain is open
Yeah, you can buy 25 days out read it
Yeah, it looks like all monthly
Right and already up 8.6% today
80d about 600 looks like we're gonna go up
See what happens here sharky this there's a
Pivot point here at 495 and that 500 area was
Support from Friday. No, I know also the walk here as well
I know that so that's yeah
Toughly it looks I mean it looks decent for continuation
But same time you have to know we're running back into the best MC. I
Believable to a RM 240 call April 19
JJ, I know you're a very futures focused. Do you trade any of the
Semis and other areas like that. No, I only trading. Yes
shark because I'm I'm old and
I'm only good at trading one thing. Well now I'll make markets in 20 different stocks simultaneously
You know if I have the supply but I I trade one thing so I don't screw it up
I know it really well. I know what it's a bad mood not to mess with it
for me trading at my age and
It's like, you know, you have one girlfriend, you know when she's in a bad mood, right?
You know, the guys who did three or four or five girls, you know, they always run around like a chicken with their head cut off
This was peaceful life trade one instrument. Well, you know treat it well. It suits you well
Yeah, I can definitely agree with that
But I do love looking at deals
You know, I mean, you know if you wanted me to be executing trader on to the mom and happily take it TSM new higher day
Yeah, we're going to the well fuck yeah
Alright, this is risky you are risky I'll give you risky. I
Know what you're thinking. Let me see if I guess you're right. Give me one second
Amazon the 180 call wall has been breached. That's not what you were thinking
Yep, that's what I was watching like a video or nine seventy fives are printing and DR 180s are printing. Yeah, the next one
The next one is stupidly extreme high risk
Ticker s e sixty dollar call
Was that the one you were thinking
You know Nick, uh, what's the name not like to play that one
Yes, she does I thought you were thinking that too
Then I saw that little story there Stellantis
Heavens in my arm. Yeah, I actually didn't dig too deep into it. I just saw
Car dealership guy complaining about companies. Yeah, there's news organizations not sourcing him except for Yahoo Finance
But interesting I didn't look too into it 400 layoffs at a large
Car manufacturer really isn't a lot to move the stock
But for people actually kind of go in and care about it is it's an interesting one
But they had a mandatory remote work day on Friday and it led to some layoffs coming out on that one
But the yeah car dealer should guide the source on that one
I just saw a story that the Apple Vision Apple reportedly internally tested using an Apple pen for
The next vision pro or sorry next Apple pen will have vision pros to do it
Yeah, and then we also the Fed president release a cook
She should be starting to speak in about 15 minutes here. So keep an eye on it. Yes. I'm ripping. Sorry
By the way, some of y'all are commenting your chair setups underneath my pin post
I put up top and I love it. I love it. This I think this chair is gonna help some of y'all
Uber are $90 a call swing for April 19th up 20%
Took a starter sharky. Oh
Yeah, I mean it's on the short side hopefully it falls back below I can't I can't do it
And over three as long as we hold that I think we're gonna go to 1850
Know at least ten of you in here will be interested in this Saudi Arabia is building the world's first Dragon Ball Z theme park
Dude those Nvidia calls are going nutty. Yes, sir
$1,100 call for April 5th 1.25 5 million
Whoa SMC I calls going nuts. Wow, those are almost in the money Jesus. Don't make that face wolf. You love it
What a call-out SMC I was trading at 994 when you called those out trading at
1046 now $50 move on look at MSTR. Oh, hello. We're almost in the money
Are these no not quite all time has an MSTR, but not far off
Okay, our 180 calls for AMD higher day was 179 69
Fuck this next one TSM looking pretty good, too
Alright fuck this GCT $60 call July 19th. This is a sweet
A of the 180 call in the fucking money
Did you say $60 don't make that face you love it?
Is that a is that a premium scalp what's kind of a go with that one
It's gonna go to at least 40 in my opinion, but yeah premium scalp
Eventually, she will rip. I just don't know when something's a lie
If you remember we played 40 and 60 dollar calls twice already we went up like 500%
See Evan the haters can't hold it down
GCT number one number one company and doing stuff that people don't understand how they're this profitable
Mikey you missed that we were on spaces and wolfs talking about how he's extended
GCT and then just you want actually other after the other after the other
Sketchy I hate it. You're weird wolf. You're so dumb and stupid. Why would you like this?
Pretty much what happened and then I was like, all right. Like I guess you guys just don't like money
Something like that, I don't know. No, you don't say anything you were sure if it was one person you might have come back
But like four or five, you're like, all right, maybe I'm just not here rising that it's just like money laundering
Pretty sure that it's kind of funny. It was a different direction
There was like one person who's like a very high growth, you know type trader and then someone who's like a tech guy
He was pretty interesting there and we had like full-on trader in there. It was from all different lanes of the world saying wolf
But yet only one side of the party was up a hundred percent on the stock
Bitcoin just cracked over 69k. Ooh, that was a quick move from 68. It fell back a little bit under it
Wish I had Wi-Fi so I could see this on my computer screen
Won't follow it along on my roll number one turn it on and off again rule number two hit it see if it works
Haha, it's you're welcome. Yeah, you missed your calling should have been behind the genius bar at Apple
You don't know what my day job is
Palantir moving pretty nice right here
Folks remember this is the day before a month end
So a lot of these deals will be up because people are short covering before the end of the quarter
Make sure that if you're going long in a swing that they it's real buying
You'll only find out at that out after the long weekend
SPY up ten point two five percent year-to-date. There's your year-to-date benchmark where you should be
Kiki Q up nine point six five percent
Dirty MSTR of $200 today alone
MSTR all-time highs are right around I believe
Ooh crypto moving here comes my a backs
Time to check the shit coin wallet order failed. Oh
Yeah, Solana Solana over 193
Mandel's contracts and MSTR guy like in croyabla like what?
Okay. Now I'm spy. There is a reaction zone on spy at
Five twenty one thirteen or two one thirteen
If she breaks through that get watch the gamma levels I posted in the morning
Yeah, here's the the five thirty five
We're back in upper view of AVGO new high a day
Read it up twenty four twenty five percent
What's read it up on common fifty one thirty six fifty one thirty eight
You know how much time do we have left before I have to stop stop giving bangers. Oh
Another like 40 minutes almost yay
Let's go Oh, yes one tip left for the gap fill I
Gotta be how much am I up on this? I got a look
Holy shit three hundred sixty eight percent more two dollar cause the money you'll lie
Oh my god, my calls are rippin
I got five dollar calls for that one
Okay, here's what we're gonna do
Okay, which ones do I have so I do not alert those which ones which ones come on faster faster
Need question mark I am speed
Would have failed 20-point drop there on in queue
Yeah, I took I took a sell at
right around that 540 area and a lot of
Previous support at that area as well. So if we at least get a pullback reaction here already taking a trim the 20-point mark
If we can come back down if not, I'll get stopped out on the runners or a green trade
All right, I think I'm making headway on my Wi-Fi over here
I'm hearing the bangers being called out though
And I'm loving it as I'm watching and crypto is just absolutely pushing right here
If you guys are watching Bitcoin is through 69 283 right now and that's pushing stuff like
Nvidia, but I like to run a lot
It is trading at nine six three nine nine six four. Yeah, this has got to be all-time highs
Surprise surprise the bull market is still here
Wait, except for no, it is not
974 is all-time eyes for Nvidia 974 974. Oh, is that a pre-market or no? It's gonna be intraday
Really what day was that that was looks like it was back on
Either the 738 the 8th. Oh, I didn't see that Friday. I'm not I'm not on a very detailed chart right now
Think it was Friday the 8th if I remember correctly
Let's see in video though is just 200 billion behind Apple now really 220
That's a good day's work the day's work
Feels like a bad day for Nvidia nowadays if it only adds 200 billion
You know Amazon and Google are really not that far off of 2 trillion as well, by the way
All right got the better chart back up and
Let's take a look at the 8th. Yeah, you are correct. We got up to yeah 974 e3
Interesting my thing just says 974 flat
No, I got above 974. I'm going 974
Anything around its unhaul thing
Here we go, we're getting us some cells here
This area was a lot more a lot more comfortable to short calling 280 call in the money on the 500
It's got a lot I don't know if this 15 is a little tricky
So, uh, we're doing OCGN five dollar call there we go July 19th
Wow, this is trading at two bucks. Yeah, I've been in since like 35 cents
Sheesh yeah, so there's trading like half of us commas and options let you know cover on the short
Make 17th is what I learned. It's all
by the way what uh the squawker and mikey's end is reading out is the fed president's
cooked speech right now basically she's saying what we've heard she's kind of in line with
the rest um cutting too soon could risk inflation coming back risk are more balanced um she seems
more in line with what the consensus is than a bostic who's one cut all right evan i just
bought some joe bowdoin fuck where's the room joe bowdoin some of these names are just so
much yeah i should have bought it the other day when logical pieces told us i just couldn't
it wasn't letting me and now of course it's pumped another hundred percent since
it's like another trim down there at the 503 area sharky
about 30 37 points here on the short onion queue yeah i missed the o5 bell
this is kind of this is like a long pivot area here for me
all right we've got our i think this is our first uh
uh 100 of the day are these smci calls oh my god they are in the money now uh these were called
that one i think i was trading at under grand they're the 1050s it's over two and a half
thousand dollars a contract now wild what a call yeah wild
the video is holding up pretty nice come back down a little bit
him what's going on with what have you been watching just what everyone else is avgo um coin of
course i have uh 300 and 305 calls but not from today i swung those from last week
and don't ask me why i have 300 and 305 it's probably um and then i got into mike's
se so we'll see i haven't really tried i haven't traded that in a couple of years
and i'm in silver so the silver future is long
are you watching some of these uh smci and arm and other pieces i mean yeah but smci had
already ran by the time i i mean i guess it ran more i i have arm stock so i actually i don't
have options on it i actually have the stock um so definitely watching that one cart of course
like i said um klisk clsk i have shares on that that's one of the bitcoin miners
and then hood's been another good stock that's ran crazy this year that i have
yeah hood has been killing it this year yeah we have we have 25 call swings for january they're
up by the hundred percent yeah i have i have a lot of shares on that one i've played the options but
i don't have any right now but some options i have are paypal long term i have 75 for july
because i think paypal's gonna take off it's like been a dead horse but yeah we have hundred
dollar calls i agree with you 100 and i actually got those mikey when you called it out but i've
had the 75 julys um i think honestly they're gonna introduce some payment biometrics that
so i've been kind of hearing the rumor of people i know in tech that are gonna like
outdo what anyone else has
i'm long the stock and the options yeah i'm on the stock but maybe i uh buy a little
call or two and play it i mean they're not that expensive to buy the the leaps
i don't think they're that expensive for long term
months but then that you are going to be okay here of course the problem is not everybody is
going to be in line you're gonna keep these on my radar has been what no for the record if you
invested ten thousand dollars into fisker at its peak back in february 2021 you'd currently have
a hole 31 dollars you would have had to trade that one zero or a hero
twitter's doing this weird thing where it's like cutting off like the top half of my screen for
some reason uh so i may honestly close my twitter app and come back in a second this is weird
okay what do i do about this thank you you're wolf let me back up
frank you still sure small i added on that but i just needed a little breather here i'm a buyer
on the tip you know the we came came right down to that that 503 ended up being right on the ma9
my runner got stopped no i laid him out there i would have failed i'm covering here i hesitated
i hesitated when it came back up around 25 i hesitated didn't take it the second time around
should have yeah they need a little greater that's all i'm a buyer in the depth stuff for sure
like 85 level they always give you a second chance
yeah i'm wondering if we don't come down to uh either 90 95 uh vwap 21 ema down there right
kind of peek peek below the whole number scare some people yeah that's what i'm thinking
we don't hold there it could be an ugly look very ugly but i think uh
with smci and navidi acting as well they just need to take a little breather
yeah amazon trying to base on 180 here right
netflix had a nice turnaround everything had a nice turnaround
yeah hey watch your mouth
uh bevin you still dca oh no i don't dca into apple for a while i literally bought
first stock i bought 12 13 14 years ago and instead of kind of trimming the position
and doing whatever i decided to build around it and kind of do my portfolio but
no i haven't i haven't added to that one in more than a decade i'm out amp oh nice
yeah i'm flat uh let's see what happens i may try along if we come down to be honest yeah same
but it's all going to depend on what happens uh when it does if if and when it does come
down again to the 500 area it may have to go up first
you guys know how i like to look at the this day in history thing um today in 1901 the first
Mercedes was shown off um interesting in 2014 facebook acquired oculus for two billion dollars
and then apple introduced in 2019 on this day uh apple tv plus apple news plus and the apple
credit card we also have thing with the the hunt brothers are slapped with 135 million
dollar margin call after trying to uh hoard a bunch of silver and capitalize on market
conditions in 1980 hunt brothers they were hunting to corner the market and got uh screwed i think
but they tried to do that whole silver squeeze if you guys remember when um uh wall street back
to try to do it i don't know if that was 2021 or something but i remember that i was like this is
never going to work this is no chance oh it's funny times is that the same hunt set on the
No, it looks like it's different hunts.
This one is Herbert and Nelson Hunt, when the Chiefs were originally owned by Lamar Hunt.
I sent the first DM to that big crypto account that followed me.
Not crypto related, but we'll see. We'll see if I end up getting blocked.
What did you ask, Devin? What was in your DM?
Oh, so I know that person is a big fan of Dragon Ball Z and I sent them that thing about Saudi Arabia opening a theme park.
So they're not really related. We'll see. Cultivating the relationship, maybe we'll get them on one of these spaces.
Lamar's brothers and uncle of the Chiefs are the current owner.
Oh, maybe actually this guy is saying that was Lamar's brothers.
So the Uncle of the Chiefs current owner was the Hunt brothers who tried to corner the silver market.
Maybe they are actually related.
The Chiefs are going to lose to the Jets though this year.
So watch out everybody, just so we're all on the same page.
Was that a Cowboys fan I heard?
You guys did well last year, signed that one. That's going to go great.
What the fuck is he going to say?
Okay, I figured it was someone in your group.
But you know, I always take the opportunity to say the Cowboys suck twice, you know, or three times.
Yeah, so here we got some Jets fans in here. That's disappointing.
The offseason is my Super Bowl.
Training camp champs. I have a little starter long.
I was doing some reporting and looking for news and I heard a rumor that Wolf Financial might be doing some more sports stuff coming up.
I'm sure it is 29, just a nod lot, but I'm looking just trying to get long, but I'm looking to cover it on a dip here.
We do have some sports things that are upcoming.
I think they would at least test 10 or 05 or a figure.
Hold them pretty strong here, though.
Well, yeah, big things coming big things coming.
Evan, are you going to be at the NASDAQ with me next Monday?
If you're nice to me over the next week.
Well, I suppose that'd probably be your loss, but all right.
What's interesting, Frank, I think might have been talking about this.
We had a good amount of data coming out on Friday.
Jerome Powell is actually speaking in a conference.
We also get PCE and the markets closed.
I don't know how often that happens.
I don't know if I've seen it before, but PCE is coming out when the markets closed on Friday.
That's going to be an interesting Monday.
I think Futures is opening so long.
Yeah, I think they are, actually.
Little morning PCE Futures training spaces.
I don't know. I'm down for it.
Yeah, that is really strange that it's coming out.
Yeah, Futures are open, but it'd be interesting to see how many people are trading.
Our 1850 calls are printing.
Don't forget, we also have those $2,500 call swings for April 12th.
I'm going to send out that email now.
I'm going to basically check what you said at the end.
We were at 1330 when we called all the $2,500.
I'm still flat here, Frank.
I didn't want to buy $500 because I've got a couple levels right below it, so I'm just going to wait and see what happens.
It's right here in this 280 area, but it's below VWAP.
I'm going to wait it out.
I was patient with that short for the most part.
Yeah, I like them alongside here, but below here.
Well, if I had to let us know what you think at the end.
Alright, putting something up real quick.
Reminder, one week from today, if you are in New York City or you are anywhere near New York City,
I'm putting together a free happy hour, 6 p.m. Eastern, next Monday.
It is going to be at The Perfect Pint, which is on 45th Street in New York, New York.
I just put a link in the top of the space.
It's the last posted tweet on my timeline.
If you would like to come, we have a few spots left.
You can register completely for free.
Stock wearing news will probably be there, although he'll be incognito,
so you won't know who he is.
And then we'll have a bunch of other people there,
the folks over at RecShares who are generously sponsoring and covering the event.
So we are doing all that.
Plus, if you go through that link that I put up top,
you can actually get a free t-shirt included as well.
Love, Recshirt, t-shirt is not going to lie.
I wear them all the time.
So if you want a free t-shirt, free drinks,
probably some good food and everything.
Link is in the top of the space.
Just posted and pinned it.
Just putting that out there for my New York people.
I know there's a bunch of you that usually do come in.
A.M.D. in New High of the Day.
SBUX, $93 call, March 28th.
Bitcoin New High of the Day.
We got Nvidia all-time highs yet?
It did not send it, as the kids say.
I was just saying nothing.
I am still trying to confirm if futures will be open Friday or not.
I'm seeing some, at least several of the prop firms are going to be closed
and I'm double-checking on CME right now.
No, it should be open, I think.
Well, that was my first thought was, yeah, we're usually open.
But from what I'm seeing so far, it looks like we actually might be closed.
Oh, maybe we're not on Good Friday.
Yeah, so just trying to confirm that for everybody on the futures.
I would say probably not even worth trading.
Yeah, normally I'd say that except for with data AMPOW coming out.
Might get some scalps in.
But if it's not open, then it's a mute point, right?
What else are we looking at?
AMD is trying, poking its head out a little bit here.
Those AMD 180 calls are...
180 is a big number for them.
I watch it if it comes out every once until you hit three triple-twenties.
I mean, I'll watch an ESPN highlight.
Yeah, they scream the 180.
There's some good highlights out of it.
I can't say I sit down and watch, but that's a cool thing.
There's a lot of Scottish people in the darts.
It gets an interesting crowd always.
What are you saying about Scottish people?
Yeah, they're a fun crowd.
I did not realize we're up 80%.
It kind of snuck up on me.
All right, so from CMEgroup.com, CME website,
I am seeing futures are actually supposed to be closed on Friday.
I don't see any openings in the future market.
The whole market's closed on Friday.
Wow, so that means Monday.
If there is some crazy number.
Tis Good Friday, this Friday.
Yeah, but we were talking about how futures might still be open.
And then Monday, Sunday's Easter.
Kim, do you anything for Easter?
No, we're just going to go to church.
Do Easter baskets, but nothing spectacular.
And watch the final four of court.
I mean, not final four, the sweet 16.
I think Gonzaga plays that day.
That's who I'm rooting for.
That is, that's the first time I've heard it pronounced like that.
I guess the Russian government tells oil companies to cut output by nine
million, my nine million barrels by the end of June.
You only heard it as Gonzaga.
That's one of my favorite teams.
And then San Diego State.
Kim, if we got wolf to fly out to you,
would you do him a really cool Easter egg hunt?
I do an Easter egg roll on my like lawn,
just like the white house.
We'd have the bunny and everything.
Not me as the bunny, an actual Easter bunny.
Oh, and video did pull back a little bit now.
Like $230 billion behind Apple, $240 billion.
Yeah, they did have a negative story too
about them in China over the weekend,
Yes, fill the gap, red to green.
You know, I did make a little prediction about it.
I hope it doesn't come true
because you're not on my team.
I'm excited about whatever Wolfie's got going with sports.
You're talking my language there.
Markets and sports, it's about all I got.
What sports are you into?
Football, soccer, baseball,
a little bit of basketball all around playoff time.
The nice thing is I have Star Plus down here in Mexico,
which is ESPN, and they show all,
ESPN owns the international rights to pretty much everything.
So I get pretty much everything commercial free.
It's really tough for me to watch soccer games in the US
because it's owned by 75 different people.
Everyone, bring me to college.
Didn't you play football there?
Had Gus Malzahn and Hugh Freese's head changes.
Apple getting a nice candle here.
Went to Arkansas, Arkansas State.
I went to Arkansas State.
I went to Arkansas for one semester, actually,
in the middle, if that matters,
but, oh, Bobby Patrino, that was a fun semester.
By the way, I pinned up that A&D prediction.
Some could call me a shark for it,
but that's up in the nest.
All right, we got about a minute more here.
Then we are going to roll into our next chat for the day.
We're gonna keep it on that tech topic.
Ooh, NFL unanimously bans the hip drop tackle.
So, Mikey, any other pieces you wanna call out
on these trades that you've been opening in?
That SMCI call, that was absolutely crazy.
I took that prediction up there
when Mikey called it out,
and let's just say I got 100% on it.
I just wanted to take this opportunity
and just apologize to everyone in Stacey's.
If anyone heard that comment from my group,
I completely apologize about that.
I would like to take this moment to apologize.
Actually, fucking nobody.
Double champ does what he wants.
I didn't hear anything, Mikey.
I genuinely thought that's what you were.
I thought you were just a hot drop of calls, brother.
Don't even worry about it.
No, I didn't hear anything on my end, so.
It did not come through clear for me, either.
But shame upon whoever said it in the group,
and we appreciate you being on here,
We know it's not a reflection of you.
Thanks for having me, brother.
And, of course, Mikey, we'll be back on tomorrow morning.
Live in the flesh, vamos.
Kim, Frank, Emperor, Craig, always a pleasure.
I think some of y'all are staying on for this next chat,
and I think we got a few new people
that are hopping up with us, too.
Ivana, how's your morning going?
Are you enjoying this market?
It's been a pretty crazy year, actually.
Not as favorable for active investing
as last December, interestingly.
I think there's a lot of flows towards passive,
so there are very few select areas
that are working this year.
Yeah, that's pretty fair.
So, I mean, year-to-date...
Well, I guess I'll roll us into this conversation.
We're gonna be talking about tech,
doing a little bit of an investing deep dive here
for the next hour, talking with Ivana
over from the Spear ETF side of things.
If you look, she is the founder
and the portfolio manager of Spear Alpha ETF.
That is S-P-R-X, is the ticker up there.
Been doing some fun work with her, spreading the word,
and really just informing people about funds like this.
This fund right now has about 72 million AUM inside of it.
It's performed pretty well.
It's up about 63.5% in the past year.
It is a tech-focused fund
to focus on these global thematic companies.
Well, yeah, I mean, I'd say it's tech-focused.
It's about 85% tech, right,
inside there right now from the breakdown.
We've got a heavy Nvidia allocation,
which, of course, helps when Nvidia's
pretty much near all-time highs right now.
But there's also some other fun companies
that I've just kind of found
by looking through their holdings and learning from them,
some of the things that they're picking out and finding.
So, bring and shy up on stage right now.
But I think the focus of this conversation
is mainly going to be around some of that workshop
that you did the other day, Ivana.
So, we can go ahead and we can get that pinned
so people can go ahead and have a chance
But why don't you kick us off a little bit,
because you did a great workshop
talking about semiconductors,
and you really kind of broke down
the AI data center value chain,
and maybe you can give us the high-level overview.
First, maybe an introduction of yourself if you want to,
and then a little bit of the high-level overview
as to what you are looking at in the world of data.
So yeah, basically the hardware part of the AI opportunity
is basically the most immediate opportunity right now
because these companies are either already inflected,
the earnings have already either inflected positively
or in the process of inflecting positively
for most of the companies in the hardware value chain.
The software side is a little different
and it's going to take a little bit more time.
And it's a bit more interest rate sensitive.
So that's why you're seeing those stocks
really getting pummeled on.
It's not necessarily disappointing earnings,
but in line to slightly better earnings.
So, but here we're just going to focus on hardware.
And basically the way I split up the webinar
that we hosted was in two parts.
We talked about inside the rack and outside the rack.
And I'll just give a quick overview
of what's inside each category.
And then we can jump into Q&A.
So inside the rack would be companies that do chip design
like Nvidia, AMD, and also some of the hyperscalers
that are coming up with their own designs
working with companies like Marvell and Broadcom
And then the second layer would be component suppliers.
And here in the component category,
the most interesting areas are memory.
These are basically the bottlenecks
but what you want to look for is where are there bottlenecks?
Those areas would probably have the most innovation
and the most growth going forward.
So memory is definitely one of them.
Packaging is another one.
And I put a super micro here on the integrator side
on the component side as well
because they do provide some components as well.
But that's basically the component layer.
The component layer will be more cyclical
than the chip design layer.
So we really like the chip design
just because you can actually hold a company like Nvidia
through the cycle versus some of this component manufacturer
maybe a little bit too volatile to hold through a cycle.
So you may wanna be sizing them up and down depending on,
I mean, even the chip design companies
you wanna size up and down
but I don't know that I'd be like interested
holding some of these components through a downturn.
inside the rack would be manufacturing companies
that actually manufacture the chips like TSMC, Samsung
and Intel is now building a Foundry.
And then another big component is networking.
So this is an area that I think is not appreciated enough
because I think this is where a lot
of the innovation will come in.
Right now we've already kind of like,
we know what the GPU looks like.
So a lot of the extra power,
even if you look at Nvidia's new Blackwell chip,
a lot of the extra power and performance will come
from better connecting this chip.
So like the Blackwell basically looks like two H100s, right?
So, but one plus one does not equal two here.
So, and it all goes back to like
how these two chips are correct,
are connected to be able to deliver better performance.
So that's kind of an overview
of what's inside the data center rack.
And then outside this year,
we're seeing a lot of companies benefit
that provide components like power
and thermal management, HVAC,
even we're starting to see it
on the power gen and material side.
So those are all like the components
that go into a data center, but they're not inside the rack.
And then there are two tangential areas,
manufacturer equipment and test and measurement equipment.
And these follow their own cycles,
basically based on how much has been invested in CapEx
to date and what's kind of the next CapEx wave,
like when is it coming and how big is it gonna be?
And test and measurement similarly,
it sees the cycle six to 12 months later
than from where these chips are put into place,
just because from where CapEx is put into place,
just because you need to be like later
So a lot of these different areas follow different,
they follow the same broad cycle,
but there are different points,
like the optimal point to invest is different.
So I'd say like right now,
it's really prime time for chip design
and components networking,
but we talked about power and thermal management,
the test and measurement side
and equipment side is a little bit more tricky.
All of the companies here,
I'd say that are on this list
and you can go and check it out on my profile.
You can check out the picture
and you also download the slides if you want to,
but even just the picture is enough.
I'd say like a lot of these companies are good investments.
The question is where do you want to position yourself
and how much risk you want to take?
a company like Nvidia offers a pretty good risk reward
because it's still trading at a reasonable valuation.
It still has a ton of upside in terms of earnings,
if the market really falls apart,
it has solid valuation support.
As similarly, I think AMD is a little riskier,
but provides also a little bit,
it provides a similar upside.
So we've been really focused on the chip design.
The networking side is another focus area.
I think that's gonna be interesting.
It's a lot more risky and a lot more cyclical.
Some of these companies like Marvell,
their AI business is doing well,
but the rest of the business is just like imploding
So we're waiting for those businesses to stabilize
and then you're gonna see like AI provide
pretty significant upside.
And then power and thermal management
is another kind of focus area
that I think it's a good time to be looking at right now.
So that's just a quick overview
and we can get into some of the valuations
depending on what questions people have.
Okay, appreciate that off the top.
I also pinned a tweet to the top that has slides.
For those that wanna follow along
as we kind of dive into the tech side of things.
Shai, be good to pull you into the mix here first.
If you have a couple of thoughts,
I know this data area is right up your alley
and I'd love to kind of hear your back and forth
I mean, this is essentially my love language.
Wanna pick your brain though Ivana.
So let's say five years down the line,
as you know, there's multiple stages of this AI boom.
Which aspect of it do you think is gonna provide
the biggest alpha for the investors?
Is it gonna be the infrastructure, the hardware
or the application elements?
Where I put the software within the application elements
because for me specifically before you answer,
I think it's the application element
where I think a lot of these dinosaur industries
like healthcare, a lot of the pharmaceutical companies,
like they are prime to be disrupted by AI specifically.
And also a lot of these consumption based models,
like they can offer insane amount of pricing power
in the future based on the amount of data exposure
and gas from the enterprise level.
So I wanted to see what you thought,
which section is gonna provide the biggest alpha
in the next five years for investors.
I mean, I think in terms of alpha generation,
you're gonna find good opportunities across all layers.
I think the application layer
will be the largest one by far, right?
Both in terms of like what businesses are able to generate
and the impact that they have
in terms of transforming industries, right?
So that's gonna be like the largest opportunity set.
However, in terms of business models,
you could really have everything there, right?
Like you could have some commoditized applications
where like you're providing like,
let's say like customer assistant or chatbots,
that's probably gonna get commoditized, right?
like if you have access to an LLM,
you should be easily able to come up
with like an application, right?
So I think on the application layer,
you're gonna find very varied business models
where some are good and some are bad.
And I think the ones that are gonna be good
are the ones that have access to proprietary data.
So that's really gonna drive that.
Like if you're either like an e-commerce company
and have tons of data or a CRM provider
basically like the data could really drive a big difference
in terms of like what type of value you can create.
But I wouldn't underestimate also
like even the hardware layer, five years out.
I mean, this business is gonna be
a little bit more cyclical for sure,
but we are in the first year of this cycle.
And usually when you have a transformational technology
like this, you could have even a cycle
where there is a slowdown,
but you don't even have a down year, right?
So if you look at the prior data center cycle,
that's exactly what we had when the market was selling off
and all the chip stocks were selling off
like the consumer part really had a big drawdown,
gaming had a big drawdown,
but data center just grew a little bit less
than it grew in a good year.
So I think on the hardware side,
you could also have some pretty,
like a very good cycle I had.
So I think we're looking to play kind of
and hardware is kind of the more immediate opportunity
where you're really like generating alpha today.
it's gonna first take a little longer to play out
from where you see revenues for these companies, right?
And they need to get to like a pretty significant scale
to represent something like 30 plus percent
of each company's revenue
for it to be driving like overall growth.
So that's really like the problem
that a lot of like either cybersecurity or data company
or even the hyperscalers are facing today,
they're seeing pretty big impact from AI,
but it's not really moving the needle in a major way
versus for the hardware companies,
it is actually moving the needle
pretty significantly for somebody like Nvidia.
So I think the short answer is
I see upside basically across the board
and I think it's important for people to stay diversified
and not chase all hardware is doing well right now.
Let me put all my eggs in that basket
and forget about the software side,
but also the other way around,
like you don't wanna be betting five years out
that could be a pretty solid cycle ahead.
No, I absolutely agree with those points.
Thanks for answering that.
And the next question is,
I wanna pick your brain about SMCI.
So I fully think SMCI is a real business.
I was an investor in a low 100s,
was sold out of 450, 500.
So obviously I missed out on a pretty big move.
However, I view SMCI as like a picks and shovels play
revenue for the next couple of years.
So it's like a really interesting vehicle
to capitalize on that specific segment.
However, right now they are trading
like close to the same free cash flow,
multiples and P multiples as AMD and Nvidia for next year.
And that doesn't make sense
because obviously those last two names I mentioned,
they're the king of data centers revenues,
but SMCI is just a picks and shovel play.
So it should be like theoretically 50% less
of a valuation against those names.
So do you think it's SMCI is just being used
as like a vehicle for traders to leverage
like the data center revenue explosion?
Or does SMCI potentially have a pivot
in their business model down a line
where their gross margins won't be in the mid teens
and this kind of cashflow that they're getting
can maybe be sustainable for the longterm.
And part two of that question is,
do you think Dell is gonna pick up the competition
within that sector of SMCI?
And because of that SMCI pricing power,
which is very minimal already will start diminishing
because competition is starting to go into their realm.
Yeah, no, I mean, I think all the points you made
Basically at the component side
is gonna be a lot more risky.
So you should be willing to pay a lot lower multiple
for those than for something like Nvidia.
And you're not gonna see it this year
because basically there is a bit of a rising tide
lifts all boats at the bottom of the cycle.
I think we're still in like year, not even year one,
So, and this year, I think one thing
that people don't quite appreciate about SMC
is that they really got a big boost
from the fact that last year demand was constrained.
So there was kind of like a pent up demand
Because Nvidia was really prioritizing
the enterprise customers.
So this is really like the year to shine in a way for SMC
because they had like all this pent up demand
and now they also got access to chips.
But longer term, if there is competition,
everybody always talks about competition for Nvidia.
There is gonna probably be a lot more competition
in the component layer than in the processor layer
where you build a leadership position
and it's a lot harder to keep up
with the pace of innovation.
So I would agree with you.
I think at this multiples, I mean,
I think it's gonna be honestly,
like I do see a good year for a lot of the hardware names.
So it's like, if somebody wants to take the risk
and play something like SMC,
like I wouldn't necessarily like discourage them
But I think like if you wanna look at five years out
and place your bets in a good kind of like
risk reward position, I think the processor,
like the chip designers like Nvidia and AMD
are a lot better risk rewards here.
Cause you're like, even if a down cycle comes next year,
like Nvidia is probably gonna do okay, right?
Like they're probably gonna go down to 20 times
EV2, EVDA and earnings are probably gonna be like,
instead of growing 20%, they're gonna grow like five.
So that's like a downside case for something like Nvidia.
SMC, like they could really,
like earnings could really fall off a cliff basically.
Yeah, absolutely agree with that.
That's honestly the billion dollar question
is when is the music gonna stop
within that specific circle of nature of that industry?
Going off of like your comment on that,
what metrics are you tracking to like kind of give you
a precursor of maybe when the music's gonna stop?
Is it tracking the CapEx payments?
I mean, expenses from the big players
or is it another specific metric
that you're kind of monitoring?
CapEx is the number one metric to track
and it's not just the big players.
I think you wanna kind of build a list of
large enterprises and then kind of like
what we try to do is say like, okay,
well, what kind of a market share do the hyperscalers have?
And then what could be the potential market
for like governments, right?
They're gonna be making pretty significant
investments so that's kind of how we're triangulating it.
And then the less risky ones is obviously
the hyperscalers because they disclose it
and you can speak to them and kind of assess CapEx plans
like they could take longer to play out, right?
So there could be like a space where like
maybe hyperscalers like spending flattens out
and then governments don't like step in quickly enough
So that could definitely be a downside case.
But even in those scenarios,
I think you're not likely to see a down year
I think you're just likely to see like
a more muted growth year, which would not be great, right?
Because expectations are not for that.
But we are like, one thing I would point out
is that 2023, even though like optically
it looks like it was a great year for servers, right?
Or like for data centers,
server shipments were actually down, right?
So it was actually like one of the kind of worst years
that we've seen over the past like 10 years, right?
So I think that's something
and the same thing for CupX for the hyperscalers.
They still invested a lot of money,
but it was a very muted year in terms of CupX growth.
It grew like around 10%, which is very little
for like secular growers and like data moving
to the cloud and all those themes.
Like 10% CupX growth is really pretty muted.
So I think you're looking at three to four years
of pretty decent CupX investment from the hyperscaler.
So at least you have that kind of visibility in the bag.
And then the question is kind of like
talking to the enterprises and talking to
or gathering data points from governments
and seeing kind of like when that wave would hit.
One last question before I pass it back to you Gav.
So we're getting a lot more like past week or two
more chatter on like US and China type of potential trade war
like just back and forth of like punishment
Do you anticipate this kind of picking up steam
as we get closer to election even more
where like Trump is getting momentum
as potentially being more favorite on the election?
You know, in the past like he's leveraged
that China US trade war significantly.
Do you anticipate potential more noise
in the semiconductor industry of like,
oh, there might be a headwind just based on political angles
or just like a lot more noise
like the AMD and Intel news over the weekend
where the government's such a small percentage
However, it went down 4% open.
Like that type of stuff, do you anticipate coming
more and more momentum towards the summer
Or do you anticipate like this is just nothing burger
just noise and recommending like any kind of dips
from this kind of nonsense is potential buying opportunities?
Yeah, I mean, I think it's both.
So I think there's gonna be definitely noise coming out.
And I don't think even post the elections,
I think like the noise will continue
because it's a real, it is like an actual real headwind.
Like I don't wanna minimize it
because China is a big market.
The positive though is that it's not gonna be that easy
for them to develop their own solution.
I think it's gonna take years.
So it's, I think it's anytime you see the sell offs
are actually buying opportunities
because the way the cycle is gonna play out,
the way the cycle is gonna come in the US
I think it's gonna be pretty strong to offset the downside
at least the downside at the pace that it comes in
So even if like, oh, now somebody starts their like GPU
production in China, like it will take several years
for it to reach any sort of like productivity
that would match something that Nvidia offers, right?
So I think like long-term it is,
like these companies would have been worth more
if they had access to the China market.
And I do think it's inviting competition
that wouldn't have been there otherwise.
So I do don't wanna minimize the impact
but I don't think it's something that,
I think the stocks are still pretty cheap
based on the fundamentals like X China, if that makes sense.
So that's why like whenever they sell off on China news
I think it's a good entry point.
I'm like completely baffled on like Apple
and Gemini's partnership,
like where Apple saw Gemini's demo
and was like, wow, that looks incredible.
I wanna partner with them.
Do you, what's your angle on like why Apple
is kind of partnering with Gemini
for their potential AI tool in the future?
Is it more, they wanna, they gave,
they didn't give up but like they are far behind the AI race
and they need to kind of get to the table
and be competitive within it.
So the partnership with Gemini,
the least quality of all the big tech names
Do you think that's what they're doing?
Like, oh, you're the last place
and we're not even in the race yet.
Let's partner up and try to get both of us
up to the top of the race.
The mediocre, exactly, yeah, exactly.
No, I think that's spot on.
I think that was the play that like,
okay, it's better than nothing basically.
So that's kind of how I would put it.
So if you have a solid foundation,
Apple's whole strategy is like,
they have a really solid foundation,
So even if they don't come up
with top of the line solutions,
just because they have the platform
already kind of captured,
they can kind of get away with kind of few years
of being behind, if that makes sense.
So that's kind of how I interpreted it.
Like, why would you go with the least advanced solution?
I think it also just saves them so much R&B money.
They can use their leverage as a massive platform
to get a great deal on it.
So they don't have to start from zero, right?
But they don't have to buy the best
because they do have a lot of capacity to spend money
and they do have the time, right?
It's not like somebody's gonna disrupt them next year.
Well, also, I do think the vast majority
of Apple's data is privacy
and that might be a huge headwind
because definitely there's so many hoops and obstacles
where other names don't really have to do that
because they're using public data like YouTube
for the majority of their data
where Apple, all their data is through the phone,
through the camera, and that's actual consumer privacy
and they don't wanna be, every year,
just DOJ just suing them.
That could potentially be why they're partnering up
and that's just my two cents.
No, that's actually a great point, yeah.
Rather than doing it all in-house.
I wouldn't even count out OpenAI in this thing.
I feel like Google's gonna give them the better deal
and the fact that maybe this was leaked
to try and give them more leverage
against OpenAI for a better deal.
Yeah, no, that's absolutely possible as well.
There was another story that they're talking with Baidu
for China AI, so it'll be interesting.
Yeah, the consumer side is gonna be very interesting.
It's still kind of like early days
and there is not a lot, like I would have thought by now
you would hear, you would have heard a lot more
But yeah, that's the next kind of thing
Because ultimately, a lot of this
like doesn't have to be done in the data center, right?
So you should be able to do on the edge
or on device a lot of these applications.
Hey Mark, so you jumped up.
We'd love to have you join into the conversation.
You're talking data attack some of these things.
Yeah, hey, I just wanna say I really enjoyed
what you've been your presentation listening to you
and what your thoughts are.
And what are your thoughts on some of the black sheep
in the business like Intel, IBM?
Because Intel and IBM just, IBM was ahead of the,
it was AI before anybody knew AI
and just can't seem to get out of the way of itself.
And Intel, they keep getting all these grants
and the stock just kind of sits there.
Do you have any unloved names that are on your radar
And are there any names that you see that in the chain
that are maybe a little over loved right now?
Are there areas where you're looking and saying,
maybe it's time to take a little money off the table
Those would be my first questions.
Yeah, so that's a great question.
So for the IBM's, Oracle's, Dell,
I mean, I would say that once you drop the ball on innovation,
it's very hard to get back in.
Now, that is not to say that like they're not gonna do well
because I think we are at the bottom of the tech cycle
and you're gonna see a few good years ahead.
And then in periods like this year,
I think people have really gone from playing offense
in December with expectation of rate cuts
and going for like the riskier type of names to,
hey, like, I don't know what's gonna happen with rates,
but these companies, IBM, Oracle, like they sound like
or interleaving, like they provide some exposure
So I think you've seen them do okay.
But I don't, like if you're looking for alpha,
I think like I took a look at Intel
when they had the management change
and the new plan with the Foundry.
And it's just like from my perspective,
it's just too much for executional risk to take on
when you have companies that are already kind of firing
on all cylinders and they're introducing new products.
And you can see like with Nvidia,
like they just shorten their product introduction cycle
I think that's a really big deal.
So the kind of pace of innovation needed
is getting higher and higher.
And if you haven't been able to keep up with that so far,
like why would you be able to do it now?
So like I would, I look at like opportunities
if there is a change or if there is something new,
like Oracle, for example,
what they're doing on the cloud side is interesting,
but is it big enough to move the rest,
That's kind of a question mark.
So it's just a little harder to generate alpha
unless there is like a specific thing where like
they come up with a new product
that is doing particularly well or something like that.
And then taking chips off the table,
I think it's just a little too early of some of these names.
So sometimes we rebalance,
like if there is something just like will really outperform
and becomes a really large part of the portfolio,
we kind of try to keep things in check
from concentrations standpoint.
But I'd say like it's too early to be taking profits.
So the way like I'm thinking about it is just
pick your favorite names,
pick kind of how much risk you wanna take
and just hold it for at least like two years from today
and then kind of reassess.
Because I do think like, even if things stall out,
I do think there is gonna be another leg up
All right, well, one more question.
On the trading floor, we used to have,
there's an old saying and the,
but it's really stuck to commodities,
but it really, I think kind of permeates
throughout the entire economy.
And the saying is the solution to high prices is high prices.
And in the case of a name like NVIDIA,
the solution to high margins is high margins.
What are the risks to margin compression?
what are this, when and if do you see some of the margins
that they're getting on GPU starting to compress?
Well, we're already kind of seeing the Blackwell chip
come with a little bit lower margins,
but I think the play here is gonna be then NVIDIA
also lowers the cost and brings margins
as it kind of gains scale, it brings margins up.
So the way like the way GPUs get priced,
it's actually very interesting.
So like even on the gaming and the consumer side,
NVIDIA kind of sets the price
and then the channel can price up or price down
based on what the supply and demand is,
but like the chip designers will rarely be cutting prices.
So when you see a lot of this pricing volatility,
it actually like doesn't come and by the chip designers,
it will be more affecting the channel
So I think it's gonna be like data center is a bit earlier
in the, like we don't really know how the market
is gonna play out through like a down cycle
or even a big down cycle, right?
But usually that's why these companies maintain
such high margins even during downturns
is because they don't necessarily get,
even though there is like a price cut to the customers,
they don't really get all the upside on the way up
and they don't really get downside on the way down.
So I think the margin kind of compression for periods
like you're seeing now with Blackwell
will come more from like the company is coming up
with this product at this particular price point
and then trying to kind of bring up the price by,
bring up the margin by cutting costs.
So I think that's something that's different too
because chips are like a commodity, right?
So at least in a traditional sense, right?
So, but the way the pricing works is very different
than how the pricing works for copper or steel, right?
Where it's like a true supply and demand.
Here it's a little different because the technology
is kind of controlled by like two players.
Right, I mean, and if margins stay relatively high,
could you see more players entering in?
And then I guess, and then I have one,
this will be my last question.
Looking at your whole presentation,
it was really interesting and valuable.
Do you ever look at like true energy plays
as these data centers explode and the amount of power
needed to run these things is astronomical.
So do you look at direct plays on energy generation
as a part of your stack of investments
or is that just not an area you play in?
No, so we would look at that.
We look at energy, we look at power components.
The challenge right now, so basically the way it works
for us is that we try to keep the book very concentrated.
So every time you put a new name,
the risk reward over the cycle needs to match
or be better obviously because you're replacing it
than whatever you have at the moment.
So that's a little bit the challenge that I have
on the component side and the power generation side.
Like I think there is a pretty good case
It's a question of like, okay, would you sell Nvidia
And maybe the answer is yes in some cases, right?
So it's just always a matter of like
the opportunity cost basically that you're giving up
with like some of the software names,
They're just completely out of favor with interest rates,
even though like rates don't really have an impact
on their business per se, right?
So that's really the challenge here,
but from PowerGen side, I think it's gonna be
a very strong cycle for PowerGen as well.
I think a lot of people are saying like,
oh, we're gonna run out of power
and power is gonna be like the bottleneck of growth.
Like based on our estimates, and I'll try to do a post.
I wasn't able to cover it as much detail
in this presentation just because it became so long,
but I'll try to do a separate post on kind of like,
what are we projecting in terms of GPU servers?
What does that mean for power demand?
And like, what does that mean for data centers
as percent of like the total energy demand?
Like our estimates still kind of point to like
reasonable power usage growth.
So strong kind of tailwind for the market,
but like I don't see that being a bottleneck for growth,
But the IPPs would be like the way
to play it on the power generation side.
On the component side would be companies like Eaton,
Schneider, they do like the electrical like components
and then companies like Vertiv and Mven
do the liquid cooling parts, all of those.
And then you can even play the,
like GE is gonna spin off their PowerGen business.
So they would be like providing turbines, right?
So you can even play it on that side.
The question though is like, how do you compare?
Like, do you sell Nvidia and buy GE, right?
So how do you compare the upside through a cycle
for those names versus the tech?
I mean, GE is sneaky, but on a tear.
I'm sure you've noticed that.
Yeah, the area in power that I've been kind of
keeping a tight eye on is the move
into these small nuclear reactors,
which I think is really fascinating.
GE is getting into that business,
SMR and then Microsoft, not Microsoft.
Bill Gates, I just announced some deal
with the small nuclear reactor.
Thoughts on that and then I'll pass it off back to Wolf.
Yeah, no, the nuclear side is very interesting
just because it's clean energy, right?
And yeah, like we had done a ton of work on uranium
We kind of exited that just because in favor of,
again, like more exposure to tech,
but we rode that wave up until,
I believe last year, don't, yeah,
I think it was mid last year.
But yeah, no, the nuclear side looks very interesting
Perfect, great questions there, Mark.
We still got another 20 to go to dive a little bit deeper
Hey Wolf, yeah, and I just wanted to add
to this power conversation.
Thank you, Ivana, for being on
and thanks to everyone else for talking and contributing
and thanks to everyone for listening.
Yeah, it's funny, I looked at Dominion Power's
recent quarterly presentation
and I posted up in chat at the top there.
We're talking about power,
we're talking about data center draw.
So Dominion Power, you know, I live in Virginia
and it's Northern Virginia,
it's like, it's the data center capital.
Loudoun County, Prince William County,
from the recent filing Dominion,
they expect essentially like 11% annual increase
from now through 2038 for data center power draw.
And this is all, it's not none of its nuclear really,
it's just all natural gas.
I think Prince William County is like 98% natural gas
powered, you know, I certainly would welcome
more nuclear power, but you know,
let's be real, like the regulations for nuclear power
are pretty stringent, you know,
when's the last time that we really built
like a nuclear power plant quickly?
But yeah, I think, you know,
when a lot of people look at these data center names
or whatever else, I think it's important to look at,
look at something like Dominion Power
or any of these other companies,
look at their filings to see,
hey, what do they project for data center power draw?
Just look at this chart, I mean, it's 11% annually.
And I know you guys were talking about,
hey, maybe adding nuclear power names to the basket here,
but what about a boring name like a Dominion Power,
which directly powers many of the data centers today
in these two counties in Northern Virginia?
So that would be basically like,
where you wanna be on the risk curve, right?
So something like AES is another one that talked about,
it's another utility that talked about
how like the impact of AI and data centers,
so they're gonna benefit as well,
but these would be a lot less riskier investments
than something like NVIDIA and AMD,
and consequently, you're probably gonna get less return
over the next several years, right?
So you need to be okay with that.
So that's kind of how it,
that's basically like for us,
the main kind of like, the main part of my job
is to figure out, hey, like where are we in the cycle
and how much risk do we wanna have,
because we do have like bottoms up analysis
done on a lot of the names in the ecosystem,
and then you just need to pick based on that,
like where do you see like a good risk reward
where you wanna take as much risk
as it's right for that point in the cycle, right?
So that would be like one thing that I'd say like,
we track these like utilities,
but they're a lot less risky, and you may wanna-
So you do track them for data collection purposes,
like, okay, what do they think?
There is something that looks like very interesting
where it's like, oh, wow, like this is actually gonna
double versus like maybe some of my other companies
will like slowly grow over the next five years,
like they would find their place in the portfolio.
It's just a matter of like,
the utilities will be significantly lower risk
and therefore significantly lower return basically.
Or as a broader broad space.
So like right now, if you were to shift from tech
to utilities, you're maybe like lowering the risk
you're taking at the bottom of the cycle,
So like from our perspective,
it's like, is that really what you wanna be doing?
Like maybe like three years out
when a lot of the stories like maybe are more priced in
and Nvidia is trading at peak valuation on peak multiples,
you're like, hey, this is getting risky.
Maybe I wanna like take some risk off the table
and still get okay upside with this,
with something like this utility space.
cause people say, okay, you know,
I mean, we're sort of in a gold mine, a gold rush here
and Nvidia is selling the shovels,
but the thing is, is that Nvidia is not pigeonholed in.
You know, if AI falls out of favor,
you know, just like, you know,
like it used to be internet of things was maybe a bubble
and maybe AI will fall out
and it'll be something else that sort of supersedes it,
but Nvidia is still in a position to capitalize
on whatever the next thing is.
And so like speaking of that,
like, is there ever gonna be a point where, you know,
okay, AI isn't the new normal, it's just a fad.
It's just the new thing that doesn't really materialize.
Are you gonna sort of shift
the mission statement of SPRX to the new thing
or really sort of maybe let it wither and die
No, so your support on so basically
the way our investment process works
is we cover about 120 companies
and at each point in time,
we identify focus areas or trends
based on like what we're hearing from our companies.
So that's a little bit different than like other funds
that I've seen out there where they're playing like,
okay, this is a cybersecurity ETF
or this is a, I don't know, like a data ETF.
For us, it's all about finding where the value is
across these like broad B2B tech
and related value chains space.
So we constantly look for kind of what is out of favor
that could be, that could inflect upwards
and we try to size it small.
usually those would be like money losing positions.
So you wanna be kind of like holding it
through a downturn of like newer, like other.
So no, we absolutely would shift the focus
and to your point, like yeah, with NVIDIA is pretty funny
because we felt it for a while
because every time there is a new technology,
like this is the song that I pitch
and people are like a little,
they were a little bit skeptical at some point.
They're like, okay, well wait.
Like you were talking about like the metaverse,
it's NVIDIA, crypto, it's NVIDIA.
But yeah, the bottom line is
that at the core of this innovation,
innovations you need to compute.
So without better compute,
you're not really like gonna develop anything.
So that's kind of why they're behind a lot of this,
like whatever is becoming hot at the moment.
And I would have highly clear.
It's the data centers too,
whatever they're computing, whatever they're working on,
it's still gonna be relevant, whatever it is.
Just like NVIDIA is gonna be relevant,
whatever the thing is, they're gonna be relevant.
And I think the auto opportunity, for example,
for NVIDIA is underappreciated.
It's a very small business today,
but the same technology that you're applying to data centers,
you're gonna be applying to autonomous driving, right?
So if that ever becomes a sizable market,
they're gonna be powering a lot of the automakers, right?
Because not everybody is gonna develop
their own autonomy in-house.
Great answer, really appreciate it.
Also shout out to my guy, Lil Mook,
just popped into the audience.
Yeah, I got two questions over here.
First of all, I have maybe a little bit more of a statement
than what we'll go into it.
So NVIDIA, kind of the thesis you gave there
at the end of, hey, the world's kind of getting
more technical, chips, semiconductors are underlying
all of that, and NVIDIA really has been a leader
for the last couple of years, if not longer.
It's really kind of the reason that I got bought in
in 2019 and 2020, and this whole AI stuff kind of came
in as a, maybe it's luck, maybe it's just kind of
that trend continuing, but that was kind of my thinking.
And I still believe that to be true.
Maybe it scares me a little bit of how big NVIDIA
has gotten, how universally now considered they are
And at that point, sometimes it's just human nature
when you're at the top of the mountain
that sometimes you let up a little bit.
So that's really my only worry.
And kind of in that, I would love to hear your thoughts
on the Blackwell chip and everything that they released
at that GTC event, because kind of answering
back to that margin question earlier,
how does NVIDIA keep their margin?
It's by increasing or keeping their pace of innovation
because if NVIDIA is light years away in front of A&D
and all the other competitors, the top hyperscalers,
the Microsoft, the Googles, et cetera of the world
and Facebook, who really have the money to spend,
they literally cannot afford to not buy the NVIDIA chip
So the answer to that margin question
is increasing that rate of innovation.
But I would love to hear your thoughts
on kind of the big numbers that were released
at that GTC event, the kind of stuff there
and how their position is currently.
Yeah, I mean, the way, so to your point,
And this is something that we constantly evaluate, right?
So it's not like we're like,
oh my God NVIDIA or nothing.
Like if it's expensive, it's expensive, right?
Like if it's valued reasonably, it's varied reasonably
and can be a part of our portfolio.
The one thing I really watch for it
is on the valuation side is if it gets to a peak multiple.
So that's when you wanna start worrying
from an investment standpoint, right?
So usually at the peak of the cycle,
what you're gonna see is right now,
we're trading at kind of mid average multiple
on just earnings that have just inflected.
Maybe some people could argue their peak,
but basically that's kind of the question, right?
So you're trading at, in my opinion,
average multiple on closer to trough
than to peak earnings in terms of earnings power, right?
What you're looking for to like identify bubbles,
you would need to be trading on peak on peak.
So you want, like you're looking for like EV2, EVDA
in like the 45 to 50 times trading on like numbers
that are even like higher than today's numbers,
So that's a very typical pattern that you see.
And that's when people are gonna be like,
oh, actually these are not cyclical.
These are actually secular businesses
and this is not peak numbers.
It's actually like gonna be growing every year.
So I think like once that multiple reaches peak
is when we're gonna be a lot more careful
with the sizing of the position.
As I said before, I think in video,
you may wanna be even holding through a down cycle
because I do think these chip names are like out of all
I think they're the best business models
because they're not super CAPEX intensive.
It's a lot of R&D, but R&D kind of builds on each other
and it's very difficult to catch up
if you're like coming up new.
So yeah, so from valuation and investment perspective,
I'm really looking for that earnings to be increasing
and not just the multiple to be increasing.
Once you have earnings support,
it's a very different risk reward basically for the company.
And then on the competition front,
I think it's gonna be very hard for somebody to come in
and like really gain like sizable market share.
I think what the hyperscalers are doing
are really more for security of supply.
you are gonna see them capture market share
just because they can choose to buy their own equipment,
but there is also a risk.
For example, now I'm curious
like what's gonna happen to AWS
because they have not been purchasing
So I'm curious to see how like their AI
as percentage of like cloud growth is gonna shape up
and like are people really interested
in their internally developed chip.
So there is also a risk in like not being buying Nvidia.
And you can even see from Elon Musk's tone
on the conference call and the change basically
like at some point he was pitching the dojo
as a competitor to the H100.
So you can go back to that conference call,
I think it was 4Q of last year.
And then once they took shipment of the H100s from Nvidia,
he was like, oh, this is not even
this is like a long shot, right?
So it's not, you can see from somebody
that clearly knows technology,
like the change in that tone kind of tells you
what you need to know about how much ahead is Nvidia in this.
And then on the margin front,
I think this is gonna be very like,
this is the new kind of margin pattern
where because they shorten the innovation cycle,
the every time they introduce a new product
it's gonna be a margin headwind.
And then as it reaches scale,
it will become a margin tailwind
but the difference is not really like meaningful
to change the multiple or the profile
or the cyclicality of the business.
It's just something that you need to incorporate
Gotcha, and I know we're running out of time here.
I just really wanna get slide in a quick question.
So maybe one or two minutes here, but I'd love to hear.
Okay, this will gotta be the last one.
I got a hard stop at like 11.59, like two minutes.
GE Vernova going public next week.
We'll be joining the portfolio.
I can't comment on what goes in or out of the portfolio
but I'm definitely on my radar.
You know, in my prior job,
I have actually a pretty long history with this company
because we were the ones that called in my,
we're the ones that called basically all the scams
of accounting and power markets being at the peak of cycle.
So yeah, like I know GE very well
and I'm definitely evaluating the new spin.
All right, Ivana, this was a pleasure.
The hour flew by, learned a ton.
Great questions from everyone on the panel.
The back and forth was awesome.
Encourage everybody to take a look at SPRX
and the strategy which you're employing
to continue to capture value and alpha within this market.
Do you have any other comments or anything else
you'd like to share or put on people's radar today?
No, I'll try to follow up with few posts
with some of the things that people asked about
So yeah, give me a follow up at Ivana's peer
and yeah, let's stay in touch
and you can always reach out to me via email,
Ivana at spear-invest.com.
Perfect, encourage everybody to do just that.
There were some really good graphics
and a nice feature as well recently inside Business Insider
for recognizing the outperformance of the fund.
Smashed 99% of similar funds with their return back in 2023.
Excited to see what happens in 2024.
Thanks so much Ivana for coming on.
It was great chatting with you today
and we're looking forward to the next one.
Thank you, okay, thank you.
Paul as well, Shy, Kim, Evan, everyone else
that has been on with us today.
That's gonna do it for the morning of spaces
that we've been doing here.
We will be back on Twitter spaces at 2 p.m. Eastern
talking about how to protect your profits in this market
which just continues to extend.
Looking forward to it then.
Have a good one everybody.